Europe at War

[Spotted Horses]

How do you know this?

A quick google search turned up commercial undersea drones with depth range up to 1000 ft. I did not manage to find out the depth of the site of the explosion, but the Baltic Sea is not very deep.

I only suggest it as something that can't be ruled out. Given the creativity the Ukrainians have displayed using jury-rigged technology against Russian forces, I wouldn't put it past them.

[BasilValentine]

But it would make sense for Ukraine. "Our allies will abandon us to get their gas back, let's destroy the pipeline so they can't get their gas back no matter what, taking away that temptation." It would also make some sense for some actor who doesn't want to give in to Russian expansion. I doubt the U.S. did it, getting caught would be too embarrassing and risk fracturing the coalition supporting Ukraine.

I wouldn't put it past Ukraine's capabilities. A commercial undersea drone could reach the pipeline, and they'd just have to attach a big bomb to it.

Ukraine has motive of course.  But they would operate this drone from where exactly?  And if they have this capability, one would think Russia's Black Sea Fleet might be a more obvious and accessible target, no?

A quick google search turned up commercial undersea drones with depth range up to 1000 ft. I did not manage to find out the depth of the site of the explosion, but the Baltic Sea is not very deep.

According to the Hersh essay, 260 feet if memory serves.

[Spotted Horses]

Ukraine has motive of course.  But they would operate this drone from where exactly?  And if they have this capability, one would think Russia's Black Sea Fleet might be a more obvious and accessible target, no?

They have successfully attacked the Black Sea fleet with drones (airborne), but once they've gotten away with that the Russians would have learned their lesson and made it harder to repeat.

They would need a substantial boat to deploy the drone and attached bomb. They would need help I would think. Maybe a substantial fishing boat would be sufficient.

Maybe the drone only needs to locate the cable and guide the dropping of a depth charge. Maybe they make a torpedo that hones in on a sonar source and the drone just finds the cable and drops a sonata source next to it. All speculation, of course. The Ukrainian military has shown itself to be very skillful.

[Todd]

A quick google search turned up commercial undersea drones with depth range up to 1000 ft. I did not manage to find out the depth of the site of the explosion, but the Baltic Sea is not very deep.

It's not deep, but it's deep enough that experts would be needed to carry out the operation.  Even if it is assumed that Ukraine has or could hire such experts, they would have to operate from either NATO land or their own or NATO ships.  The latter would potentially run afoul of NATO or Russian patrols, since the Baltic is patrolled rather heavily.

I only suggest it as something that can't be ruled out. Given the creativity the Ukrainians have displayed using jury-rigged technology against Russian forces, I wouldn't put it past them.

It's certainly possible, but it would lead to questions as to why the Ukrainians have not sabotaged the pipelines that run through Ukraine.  Indeed, more gas has been pumped through that pipeline network recently: Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine rises.  One would think that if the goal is maximum economic damage, the Ukrainians would have destroyed the pipeline network in their own country.  Of course, that may be a red line that would result in more severe Russian actions, and of course, Ukraine rakes in billions in fees from Russia even now for access to the network.  Maybe Ukraine just wanted to take out a potential competitor.  That would indicate impure motives, though.

Maybe the drone only needs to locate the cable and guide the dropping of a depth charge. Maybe they make a torpedo that hones in on a sonar source and the drone just finds the cable and drops a sonata source next to it. All speculation, of course. The Ukrainian military has shown itself to be very skillful.

Four pipelines were destroyed or damaged.  It was a complex operation.

In any event, whatever country or group of countries did it committed an act of war and a state act of terrorism.

[drogulus]

    I favor negotiations, not in the abstract but as a means to end the fighting when Ukraine secures its territory.

    I don't see how Russia can be negotiated out of meat grindering. The TuckerPutinist position looks like a reward for what Russia is doing. Look, they're meat grindering!! Negotiate to make them stop!

    Why not just give them what they want if your negotiation strategy is to give them what they want? Why bother? Just order the Puppet to surrender. He's a Puppet so he will, right?

   

[Madiel]

As I've posted before, it makes sense. There is not motive for Russia. They turned off the gas in order to blackmail the E.U., "we won't turn on that sweet gas until you stop supporting Ukraine." Destroying the pipeline takes away the blackmail leverage, since now they can't turn it on.

But it would make sense for Ukraine. "Our allies will abandon us to get their gas back, let's destroy the pipeline so they can't get their gas back no matter what, taking away that temptation." It would also make some sense for some actor who doesn't want to give in to Russian expansion. I doubt the U.S. did it, getting caught would be too embarrassing and risk fracturing the coalition supporting Ukraine.

I wouldn't put it past Ukraine's capabilities. A commercial undersea drone could reach the pipeline, and they'd just have to attach a big bomb to it.

I hadn't really thought of Ukraine as an option given the location, but okay.

[Que]

I favor negotiations, not in the abstract but as a means to end the fighting when Ukraine secures its territory.

    I don't see how Russia can be negotiated out of meat grindering. The TuckerPutinist position looks like a reward for what Russia is doing. Look, they're meat grindering!! Negotiate to make them stop!

    Why not just give them what they want if your negotiation strategy is to give them what they want? Why bother? Just order the Puppet to surrender. He's a Puppet so he will, right?   

Exactly. Neither Ukraine not its western allies are responsible for Putin's decisions on what he does with Russian soldiers.

BTW reports are that Russian losses - in destroyed equipment and casualties - are extraordinarily high while advances are only incremental.

Putin and his generals are just following Russian military tradition in which soldiers are expendable. Stalin wasted the lives of literally millions of Russian soldiers.

[Florestan]

I'd say the latest news from Moldova is not good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64595322

These are the sorts of things 'blowing in the wind' that presage no good to anyone.

Well, gentlemen, what did you exoect? Moldova is a small artificial state which would have never existed were it not for Russian / USSR imperialism. The only difference between them and Ukraine is that Ukraine is a very large artificial state which would have never existed were it not for Russian / USSR imperialism.

That being said, I'm all in favor of both Moldova and Ukraine keeping their existence as independent states.

I've said in the past and I will say it again: if a referendum would be held regarding the union of Moldova with Romania, I'd vote against.

[LKB]

Perhaps my imagination is merely being hyperactive, but it's easy to envision a Russian incursion resulting from the fall of Moldova's government. Perhaps  Putin would try to explain it away as a " helpful " attempt to " stabilize " matters and " maintain order "...

[Florestan]

Perhaps my imagination is merely being hyperactive, but it's easy to envision a Russian incursion resulting from the fall of Moldova's government. Perhaps  Putin would try to explain it away as a " helpful " attempt to " stabilize " matters and " maintain order "...

Moldova is a landlocked country which has no border with Russia. They have borders with Ukraine and Romania only.

Take that, Putin! 

[LKB]

Moldova is a landlocked country which has no border with Russia. They have borders with Ukraine and Romania only.

Take that, Putin! 

Unfortunately, Russia could conceivably mount an airborne incursion into Moldova from Southern Ukraine.

And the more l think about it, the more sense it makes.

[Madiel]

Well, gentlemen, what did you exoect? Moldova is a small artificial state which would have never existed were it not for Russian / USSR imperialism. The only difference between them and Ukraine is that Ukraine is a very large artificial state which would have never existed were it not for Russian / USSR imperialism.

That being said, I'm all in favor of both Moldova and Ukraine keeping their existence as independent states.

I've said in the past and I will say it again: if a referendum would be held regarding the union of Moldova with Romania, I'd vote against.

So you agree with the Russian view that Ukraine is not a real country? Well that's an interesting turn of events.

[Que]

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said it could take two years for Russia to fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, two regions whose capture Moscow has stated as a key goal of the war.

In a video published on Friday with the Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov, reported by Reuters, Prigozhin said:

As far as I understand, we need to close off the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and in principle that will suit everyone for now.

That could take one and a half to two years, he said.

Quite an admission... Is "one and a half to two years" Russian for NEVER? 

Many analists now seem to think that the new "large" Russian offensive is not coming. Or rather that the recent flurry of assaults is going to be it - this is what the Russian army can master. They threw in their best remaining troops and equipment on the Southern front and failed miserably. Their best tanks are positioned around Kreminna, with fighting still ongoing. The Ukrainians might use their recently arrived British Challenger tanks there. The siege of Bakhmut seems to grind to a halt.  Russian casualties are high: from 700 to over a thousand each day.

[Florestan]

So you agree with the Russian view that Ukraine is not a real country? Well that's an interesting turn of events.

It is a real country whose shape and and size is the result of Russian/Soviet imperialism. This doesn't mean the Russian invasion is justified.

[Madiel]

It is a real country whose shape and and size is the result of Russian/Soviet imperialism. This doesn't mean the Russian invasion is justified.

Well most countries borders have been affected over time by these things. But I disagree with you when you say it's the same as Moldova.

[Todd]

Russian casualties are high: from 700 to over a thousand each day.

Is this a case where there are 700-1000+ Russian casualties per day and 0-50 Ukrainian casualties per day?

[Florestan]

Well most countries borders have been affected over time by these things. But I disagree with you when you say it's the same as Moldova.

I admit I exaggerated.

[drogulus]

     They Are Russians Fighting Against Their Homeland. Here's Why.

     They are called the Free Russia Legion, and they are fighting around Bakhmut under Ukrainian officers.

In interviews, some Russian soldiers said they were already living in Ukraine when Russian forces invaded last year, and felt an obligation to defend their adopted country. Others, often with no military experience, crossed into Ukraine from Russia after the war began, moved by a sense that the Kremlin's invasion was profoundly unjust.

"We haven't come here to prove anything," said one soldier with the call sign Zaza. "We've come here to help Ukraine achieve the full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory and the future de-Putinization of Russia."

     

[drogulus]

Unfortunately, Russia could conceivably mount an airborne incursion into Moldova from Southern Ukraine.

And the more l think about it, the more sense it makes.

     It's going to be a coup, and according to information Ukraine gave to Moldova the "thousand people from anywhere" will capture government buildings and take hostages. I think Russia won't send troops unless the coup succeeds.

     I said before that the EU is what scares Putin, not NATO. The reason is obvious to anyone who cares to know. Moldova and Ukraine are EU bound, and if left unmolested will gain in prosperity and stability.

     The military capability of NATO reveals what its purpose is. Putin doesn't fear NATO. He may hate it and certainly he's frustrated that he can't invade several countries defended by it, but he has no reason to fear it.

[Karl Henning]

Russians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus