Did a warming Arctic cause the Big Chill further south?

[RebLem]

How the warming Arctic might be behind Boston's deep freeze

By Peter Thomson   |   PRI : The World   |   Tuesday, 24 FEB 2015


A strange thing happened here in Boston over the weekend: The temperature got above freezing.

The massive dumps of snow here this winter have been bad enough, but it's the cold that's really done us in, an unbroken stretch of frigid weather that's made Massachusetts feel more like Montreal — or Anchorage.

And Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis has a counterintuitive explanation for all the cold: It's the warming Arctic.

More specifically, Francis thinks the warming Arctic is causing the jet stream to slow down, get a lot more loopy, which lets big masses of frigid air slip south.
The jet stream is that powerful, high-altitude circulation system that carries weather around the Northern Hemisphere. The main fuel behind it is the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the warmer regions to the south.

"When the Arctic is warming so fast, that means there's less fuel driving the jet stream," Francis says. "When the jet stream has less fuel it flows more slowly, and it tends to take these big north-south dips."

The northeastern US just happens to be in the path of one of those big dips this year, she says, "and that's when we get our cold winters." The United Kingdom has also seen extremely strong and persistent storms the past two winters. But she also thinks there's a lot more going on than just a lot of cold and snow in New — or old — England.

"You have to step back and look at what the jet stream is doing all around the northern hemisphere," Francis says. It's also taken a huge northward swing over the western US, causing drought and heat waves in California.

Farther east, Francis says, "think back to the Olympics last winter, and how much trouble they were having keeping snow on the ski slopes. And you can go all the way around to Alaska, [where] they been having two very warm winters in a row."

Francis cautions that the climate system is extremely complicated, and that a lot of other big changes are in play at the same time as the disrupted jet stream.
"We can't draw a straight line between what's happening in the Arctic and what's happening to us in the east" and elsewhere around the world, she says. But, she adds, "what we do think is happening is the Arctic warming so fast is making it more likely that these kinds of patterns will happen more often."

That may give Bostonians pause. Everyone here is talking about how nasty the winter has been, but the mostly-unspoken assumption is that since it's almost never happened before, it probably won't happen again in our lifetimes.

But Francis says that's "not a safe assumption at all" given the recent changes in the jet stream. She also points out that the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast has been warming, creating more evaporation. "[That] puts more moisture in the air, [and] that moisture is also fuel for storms," she says.

Or things could go the other way: A shift in those big dips could push the cold part of the loop elsewhere and bring more winters like 2012 when, among other things, there were already crocuses and mosquitos in Boston by early March.

So get ready — and keep your long underwear and your shorts handy.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/how-the-warming-arctic-might-be-behind-bostons-deep-freeze/ar-BBhTRFZ

[snyprrr]

Quick, get the government on it, they'll fix it for us, they fix everything so nice,... they'll let us know how it's our fault and how we can be better citizens of the reich.

[Cato]

Sunspot activity and solar output is not to be discounted, along with currents, etc:

On the basis of sunspot activity data analysis, J. Eddy (Eddy J. A. Science. 1976. 192, 1189), has revealed a correlation between the reliably determined periods of significant variations of sunspot activity during the whole (past) millennium and the corresponding considerable climate changes on the Earth. The cyclic variations of climate, especially in Europe during the (past) millennium, were not associated with fundamental climate changes, but the changes were frequently sufficient to affect the life of nations and several states leading to economical and demographic crises. By conducting a similar research, Eugene Borisenkov (Climate variations during the last millennium. Leningrad. 1988. p. 275) has found that during each of 18 deep minima of sunspot activity similar to the Maunder minimum with quasi two hundred years period during the last 7500 years, the periods of global climate cooling were observed. The two hundred year maxima of sunspot activity were in turn followed by global warmings. These fundamental changes in the Earth climate could be caused only by the corresponding long term and considerable changes in integral power of the coming solar radiation flux, because any industrial influence was non-existent in those times. This is the evidence of the fact that during two hundred years maxima of sunspot activity, the TSI was considerably higher and during the periods of two hundred years minima of sunspot activity, it was considerably lower. In the other words, within any significant period of observations, the two hundred year variations of sunspot activity and of the TSI are in whole cross-correlated in phase and amplitude. The course of the two hundred year component of the TSI variation was in whole defined by the course of the corresponding variation of sunspot activity.

See:

http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html

And:

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/12/04/new-paper-russian-solar-physicist-by-habibullo-abdussamatov-predicts-another-little-ice-age-within-the-next-30-years/

And:

[Gurn Blanston]

Sunspot activity and solar output is not to be discounted, along with currents, etc:

See:

http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html

And:

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/12/04/new-paper-russian-solar-physicist-by-habibullo-abdussamatov-predicts-another-little-ice-age-within-the-next-30-years/

And:

I disagree with their basic premise that "These fundamental changes in the Earth climate could be caused only by the corresponding long term and considerable changes in integral power of the coming solar radiation flux, because any industrial influence was non-existent in those times."

Volcanic activity produces most of the same 'pollutants' as industrial activity. Rises in tectonic activity, well known to be cyclical, as evidenced by major deposits of pyroclastics and basaltic flows would have to be discounted before one could settle on solar activity as the only other source of warming.

Just sayin'...

[The Six]

Climate change has already started, we're all screwed, and Louisiana and Florida won't exist in 60 years.

[Cato]

I disagree with their basic premise that "These fundamental changes in the Earth climate could be caused only by the corresponding long term and considerable changes in integral power of the coming solar radiation flux, because any industrial influence was non-existent in those times."

Volcanic activity produces most of the same 'pollutants' as industrial activity. Rises in tectonic activity, well known to be cyclical, as evidenced by major deposits of pyroclastics and basaltic flows would have to be discounted before one could settle on solar activity as the only other source of warming.

Just sayin'...

I do not believe they see volcanic activity as "long-term," and certainly massive volcanic activity can create a "year without summer."

[Gurn Blanston]

I do not believe they see volcanic activity as "long-term," and certainly massive volcanic activity can create a "year without summer."

No, they apparently don't see it as long-term, that is my complaint. Long-term tectonic cycles can create conditions which mimic other sources, so you can't discount them. Historic events such as the 1819 'year with no summer' are microcosmic compared to long term 'eon with no summer' events!   

[Gurn Blanston]

Climate change has already started, we're all screwed, and Louisiana and Florida won't exist in 60 years.

I'm down with that.

[Cato]

I'm down with that.

Amen!    0:)

[Sergeant Rock]

Climate change has already started, we're all screwed, and Louisiana and Florida won't exist in 60 years.

There's always a silver lining 

Sarge

[Ken B]

I disagree with their basic premise ...

Hmm.

You say premise, I say conclusion
You say tomayto, I say tomahto

[Gurn Blanston]

Hmm.

You say premise, I say conclusion
You say tomayto, I say tomahto

No, their conclusion may be correct, it is there positing that industrial pollution is the only outside factor that counts which I disagree with. That is, since there was no industrial pollution, it had to be solar fluctuation. I say no. I could have been solar fluctuation, but it also could have been something else, even though not industrial pollution. I know I am still not using the correct term, but I been out of skool since 1969...