Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[Karl Henning]

'Fundamentals' suggest it's a GOP year. But Donald Trump is not your average Republican candidate.

[drogulus]

     The crisis in the Republican Party is even worse than it looks

Trump is the candidate who finally figured out how to exploit the fact that much of the Republican voter base does not share the policy preferences of the Republican donor class, and that it is therefore possible to win the nomination without being saddled with their unpopular policy preferences.

He will not be the last candidate to understand this.

Future candidates will seek to rebuild Trump's coalition, and they will follow in his footsteps by opposing free trade, promising to protect entitlements from cuts, questioning the value of America's commitment to military alliances, and shrugging at social changes like the growing acceptance of transgender people.

All three of the supposed "legs" of the Republican coalition stool — libertarian economics, social conservatism, and militarism — are at risk from Trump and the populist-imitator candidates he will spawn.

[Karl Henning]

"spawn of Trump"

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

320 million people, and the best we can come up with is an orange-haired buffoon and a pant-suited sociopath. What an advertisement for democracy!

[Todd]

     The crisis in the Republican Party is even worse than it looks

Robert Barro's kid, huh?  Now I'm tempted to read some of his other writings to see how much his father's thinking rubbed off on him.

[Todd]

320 million people, and the best we can come up with is an orange-haired buffoon and a pant-suited sociopath.

Bernie can still win the nomination!

[Karl Henning]

Bernie can still win the nomination!

[Gurn Blanston]

All three of the supposed "legs" of the Republican coalition stool — libertarian economics, social conservatism, and militarism — are at risk from Trump and the populist-imitator candidates he will spawn.

Good analogy, the Republican belief system really is a stool. The trouble is, when you take that stuff away, you look remarkably like what the Democrats are supposed to be. Now you really DO have a stool!

[Karl Henning]

Meanwhile, the headlines which read (in effect): Sanders Upsets Clinton; But Don't Worry, Establishment—She's Still Inevitable

[André]

When Sarkozy won the nomination for the right wing coalition in France, many derided his presidential candidacy. He went on to become a one-term President. Then, from the left corner, Hollande was elected and he, too, will make only one term as President. And his successor's opponent for the right-wing coalition will be...Sarkozy !

What good is it to play ping pong with a big country's presidency ? 

[drogulus]

"spawn of Trump"

     

[Todd]

So on Thursday Bill Clinton popped up in Portland - Bernie country - to speak for his wife.  The local TV stations carried at least some of it, and though hoarse and tired, Clinton delivered what one would expect him to deliver in the ten or so minutes I watched.  He was pretty much preaching to the converted, but he can still do it very well.

Last night, Donald Trump held a rally in Eugene, Oregon, and one station aired the whole thing.  I managed to watch about ten minutes of the speech.  I was struck by how orange he looked, and he tried out his newest attack - Goofy Elizabeth Warren - and he blabbed about himself, but watching a non-sound bite portion of a speech made it clear why he's attracting so many voters.  His style is seemingly off-the-cuff, he has ready made targets, and he offers vague solutions and hope for the seemingly disaffected.  I knew all that before, but in extended doses his energy and purpose (real or fake) doesn't flag and he flatters the audience.  He's a charlatan, but some people fall for charlatans.  Alas, he couldn't pronounce "Oregon" properly, though a lot of east coasters have difficulties doing that for some reason.  (No one should have him try to pronounce Couch Street if he comes to Portland.)  It doesn't matter because in the general he should spend literally no time or money here.  Oregon can be written off by Republicans in the general, no matter the candidate.  No reason to flush money down the john.

[Karl Henning]

Extinction is starting to take on an extra piquancy . . .

Donald Trump is reportedly considering Newt Gingrich as a vice presidential candidate. That might present problems.

[kishnevi]

For those considering joining Listener, Andre and Chambernut after November
http://www.maplematch.com

[drogulus]

     Donald Trump Calls Climate Change a Hoax, but Worries It Could Hurt His Golf Course

     Who says Trump isn't a real Repub?

     

[Ken B]

     Donald Trump Calls Climate Change a Hoax, but Worries It Could Hurt His Golf Course

     Who says Trump isn't a real Repub?

   

Anyone not stupid enough to believe a CEO signs off on every document in every company?

[Brian]

Anyone not stupid enough to believe a CEO signs off on every document in every company?

Not arguing with you necessarily, but in a recent NYT Magazine article, the reporter sat by Trump on the campaign plane as he read, and complained about reading, hotel elevator repair contracts.

[Ken B]

Not arguing with you necessarily, but in a recent NYT Magazine article, the reporter sat by Trump on the campaign plane as he read, and complained about reading, hotel elevator repair contracts.

I am surprised to see you argue that Trump is the master of all subjects...

Basically I am just irked by ridiculous gotcha arguments, here in the form of gotcha by proxy. There's enough substance to criticize Trump on I'd venture.

[Brian]

Basically I am just irked by ridiculous gotcha arguments, here in the form of gotcha by proxy. There's enough substance to criticize Trump on I'd venture.

Yeah. I guess I'm used to it. In this election, I fully expect that the candidates, their surrogates, the media, and the social media masses will dredge up every single imaginable issue and a few dozen unimaginable issues. Who knows what silliness we'll endure in the next 5.5 months, or even after.

[Todd]

At last, a presidential race that isn't a popularity contest.