Countdown to Extinction: The 2016 Presidential Election

[André]

One of Trump's péchés mignons is that he rises to every bait and doesn't seem to understand the terms 'let go', 'drop it', or 'move on'.

When playing on home turf, I suspect he could get away with just about anything. 

But in terms of international policy making and THE chief maneuverer on the global chessboard,  I suspect this might prove a major, and a potentially very dangerous hurdle.

BTW, could someone explain what the "unarticulated frustrations of the common people" are, and why going to such an extreme as electing Donald J. Trump as POTUS would alleviate them ? Some great, silent suffering seems to be at stake here.

[Karl Henning]

Conspiracy Theorrhoids of America:  I am your voice!

It's more than that, of course.

But that's a part of it.

[Karl Henning]

Pence breaks with El Tupé by . . . endorsing Paul Ryan.  Will the latter tell him, You're fired!...?

[Ken B]

BTW, could someone explain what the "unarticulated frustrations of the common people" are, and why going to such an extreme as electing Donald J. Trump as POTUS would alleviate them ? Some great, silent suffering seems to be at stake here.

Sure. Bunch of points.

It's socially okay to sneer at lower class whites. They naturally resent it. This is THE driver of Trump's rise. Notice he always wears that ugliest of headpieces, the basesball cap? This is why.

PC is often wielded as a weapon. Trump pushes back. It is used to hide the truth, and he pushes back. That's appealing.

Free trade *has* hurt some people. They hope -- wrongly -- that ending it will help them. (Free trade is beneficial over all, but it's not a Pareto improvement).

Mass immigration *does* lower wages for unskilled workers. (That's why big business is all for it. That's why Sanders is against it.)

A lot of people think the government works against them. They are very often right. Trump promises to help. (This is one area where I think maybe he could help. Will he if elected? Different question; don't bet the house.)


It's wrong to think people are attracted to the specifics of Trump's policies (which do exist). He represents hope to a lot of people who lack it. (It's a false hope, but it's not very nice to sneer at them for having it. Trump is a master salesman. Hillary has a lot of people fooled too.)

[Pat B]

How did you count say Michigan? I think Trump might be able to do well here.

In general I agree: unless something happens Hillary will win. This year the debates might actually matter. They both seem like weak debaters to me. But Trump is probably more gaffe-prone, at least in terms of some petulant reaction. If Hillary can subtly give him the needle -- not the hands thing please -- he might blow his top.

I hid behind used the fivethirtyeight "polls-plus" forecast across the board. That only gives him a 17% chance in MI -- but the polls there are pre-convention. You're thinking that his message on trade plays well there, right?

He's gaffe-prone in general but not really in the debates. Goading him would be risky for Clinton. That's his turf, as Ted Cruz learned when he went after "New York values." If she tries it, she better bring something fresher than his hand size.

[mc ukrneal]

I wonder if they will shake hands before the debate begins....

[André]

Sure. Bunch of points.

It's socially okay to sneer at lower class whites. They naturally resent it. This is THE driver of Trump's rise. Notice he always wears that ugliest of headpieces, the basesball cap? This is why.

PC is often wielded as a weapon. Trump pushes back. It is used to hide the truth, and he pushes back. That's appealing.

Free trade *has* hurt some people. They hope -- wrongly -- that ending it will help them. (Free trade is beneficial over all, but it's not a Pareto improvement).

Mass immigration *does* lower wages for unskilled workers. (That's why big business is all for it. That's why Sanders is against it.)

A lot of people think the government works against them. They are very often right. Trump promises to help. (This is one area where I think maybe he could help. Will he if elected? Different question; don't bet the house.)


It's wrong to think people are attracted to the specifics of Trump's policies (which do exist). He represents hope to a lot of people who lack it. (It's a false hope, but it's not very nice to sneer at them for having it. Trump is a master salesman. Hillary has a lot of people fooled too.)

Thanks. Your answer sheds some light on this side of the border. When you're not a national or native, a lot of socio cultural gut feeling issues are hard to understand.

But, if I may ask, what % of the electorate - or general population - is made up of "lower class whites" ? I thought that the white people in the US were majoritarily found in the middle class, just as in Canada or Australia, or Germany, France or Italy. I certainly understand and concur that a lower white middle class exist in sizable proportions in the western world. But why single out the whites as the malcontents in the american society and identify them as the main movers of Trump's supporters ?

If Trump attracts some 45% of the popular vote - as per current estimations - is there not something else that bothers them that much ? I mean, we're talking about the most populous, affluent, educated democracy in the world. A country where, for the last 160 years, a steady increase in educational, socio-economic, technological level has brought America to the fore in every possible aspect of civilization (along with scandinavian countries and a few others, except in terms of military might of course).

Viewed from the outside, it's really hard to understand that frustration. One would think that America had entered a Golden Age a long time ago and that progresses had steadily been made to ensure its pre-eminence as one of the models for other countries to follow. And yet, deep-rooted bitterness and malcontentment, vicious name-calling and division seem to be at the forefront of this political campaign.

[Ken B]

I hid behind used the fivethirtyeight "polls-plus" forecast across the board. That only gives him a 17% chance in MI -- but the polls there are pre-convention. You're thinking that his message on trade plays well there, right?

He's gaffe-prone in general but not really in the debates. Goading him would be risky for Clinton. That's his turf, as Ted Cruz learned when he went after "New York values." If she tries it, she better bring something fresher than his hand size.

Yes I think it may well play here. Michigan is certainly uphill for any republican, but I wouldn't count it as for Hillary just yet. There's a large natural audience for protectionism in Michigan.
Gun control plays badly here too in most of the state because hunting is big.

[The new erato]

What really puzzles me is that a person with such an obvious lack of empathy and such a self-centred approach to every issue as Donald Trump should be seen by ordinary voters as the right person to fix any issues other than his own???

[Jo498]

Quite a bit of the so-called "middle class" is also finding itself in unstable or precarious situations. And many have the impression that minorities (who do not fare any better) are helped by affirmative action etc. whereas the (lower) middle class whites are supposed to be privileged. How does it feel to be told you are privileged when you are out of work or stuck in a lousy job? (The obvious implication is that you are dumb and/or lazy to make so little of your white privilege.)
The "golden age" of the US is perceived as long past (the 1950s and early 60s, I guess, or for some maybe the 1980s). And in many respects this is true, although it was not the only military superpower back then, it was far more dominating as an economical superpower and its cultural domination was largely perceived as beneficial. It is still "leading" in those fields but not to such a large extent because Japan, Europe and now also China and others have caught up. Would you buy an American car? This wasn't even a question for Americans in 1960, I guess.

[Florestan]

we're talking about the most populous, affluent, educated democracy in the world. A country where, for the last 160 years, a steady increase in educational, socio-economic, technological level has brought America to the fore in every possible aspect of civilization (along with scandinavian countries and a few others, except in terms of military might of course).

Viewed from the outside, it's really hard to understand that frustration. One would think that America had entered a Golden Age a long time ago and that progresses had steadily been made to ensure its pre-eminence as one of the models for other countries to follow.

I wonder how much of this is really true and how much just Whig history. 

[Karl Henning]

I know, he's no longer "a real Republican," but . . .

... Pence, doing his well-practiced imitation of a country vicar saddened by the discovery of sin in his parish, said with sorrowful solemnity: "I don't think name-calling has any place in public life." As in "Lyin' Ted" Cruz and "Little Marco" Rubio and "Crooked Hillary" Clinton?

Pence is just the most recent example of how the rubble of ruined reputations will become deeper before Nov. 8. It has been well said that "sooner or later, we all sit down to a banquet of consequences." The Republican Party's multicourse banquet has begun.

[Karl Henning]

A big chunk of each candidate's support comes from people who want to see the other person lose, but, as with the CNN/ORC poll released this week, Clinton's support is more heavily from people who want her to win. Trump's is more heavily from people who want Clinton to lose.

Donald Trump's terrible week just got worse

[Ken B]

I know, he's no longer "a real Republican," but . . .

Going to be a lot of those this cycle. I know several folks who, like me, lean distinctly to the GOP. We're all dismayed. One guy will vote Trump I think, but the rest won't. If I had a vote I'd be voting for Hillary.

Will's right. There are exceptions. Mitt Romney has been clearest and strongest in his criticism of Trump. I hoped Ryan would be too (has it ever happened that the party's previous ticket has repudiated the nominee?), but he's placed being a good soldier over his judgment, alas. He might survive a Trump collapse.

[Karl Henning]

At the risk of . . . well, wait a minute: it is the current news, and El Tupé says that, as long as he's making news, it's good publicity!

Stuart Stevens was the chief strategist for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential bid. He is also one of the most vocal Republican critics of Donald Trump. I reach out to Stuart every few months to gauge where he stands vis-a-vis Trump. And, with Trump's campaign in full blown panic/collapse mode, now seemed like a good time to check in. Our conversation, conducted via email and edited only for grammar, is below.

Why [El Tupé's] campaign is like a speeding car with its parts falling off

I'm of the school that the post-2012 analysis -- the so called "autopsy" -- pointed the party in the direction necessary to win national elections and be a dominant governing party. [El Tupé's] nomination is a complete repudiation of that analysis. The most hopeful interpretation, in my view, is that this is final testing of the alternative view that the party doesn't need to broaden its appeal to nonwhite voters and will learn from the looming defeat. The less hopeful is that it's just nuts.

[Pat B]

If Trump attracts some 45% of the popular vote - as per current estimations - is there not something else that bothers them that much ? I mean, we're talking about the most populous, affluent, educated democracy in the world. A country where, for the last 160 years, a steady increase in educational, socio-economic, technological level has brought America to the fore in every possible aspect of civilization (along with scandinavian countries and a few others, except in terms of military might of course).

Viewed from the outside, it's really hard to understand that frustration. One would think that America had entered a Golden Age a long time ago and that progresses had steadily been made to ensure its pre-eminence as one of the models for other countries to follow. And yet, deep-rooted bitterness and malcontentment, vicious name-calling and division seem to be at the forefront of this political campaign.

The short answer is that most Americans have barely benefitted from the nation's economic growth of the past few decades. This was the centerpiece of Bernie Sanders's campaign, but most of the other candidates also acknowledged it in some way. I think it's the crux of Trump's appeal too, though he doesn't use terms like "income inequality." Obviously there is much disagreement over causes and solutions.

Here is a longer answer from the left, which devolves at the very end into an outright endorsement of Sanders. That cheapens it, even though I like Bernie. The rest of this piece is excellent (and jibes with Ken's comment about disdain towards lower-class whites).

Most Americans do have it pretty good in the grand scheme of things. But it's hard to keep that in perspective, to not be resentful, when you're surrounded by people who are richer than you.

[Karl Henning]

The short answer is that most Americans have barely benefitted from the nation's economic growth of the past few decades. This was the centerpiece of Bernie Sanders's campaign, but most of the other candidates also acknowledged it in some way. I think it's the crux of Trump's appeal too, though he doesn't use terms like "income inequality." Obviously there is much disagreement over causes and solutions.

Here is a longer answer from the left, which devolves at the very end into an outright endorsement of Sanders. That cheapens it, even though I like Bernie. The rest of this piece is excellent (and jibes with Ken's comment about disdain towards lower-class whites).

Most Americans do have it pretty good in the grand scheme of things. But it's hard to keep that in perspective, to not be resentful, when you're surrounded by people who are richer than you.

Thanks.

[Ken B]

The short answer is that most Americans have barely benefitted from the nation's economic growth of the past few decades. This was the centerpiece of Bernie Sanders's campaign, but most of the other candidates also acknowledged it in some way. I think it's the crux of Trump's appeal too, though he doesn't use terms like "income inequality." Obviously there is much disagreement over causes and solutions.

Here is a longer answer from the left, which devolves at the very end into an outright endorsement of Sanders. That cheapens it, even though I like Bernie. The rest of this piece is excellent (and jibes with Ken's comment about disdain towards lower-class whites).

Most Americans do have it pretty good in the grand scheme of things. But it's hard to keep that in perspective, to not be resentful, when you're surrounded by people who are richer than you.

I don't know many Trump supporters even on line. The one I do, who is intelligent and well educated, is a Leftist. He's also a bit of a loon on economics: supporting tariffs, trade wars, etc. He likes Trump's isolationism, his enmity with the neo-cons, impatience with PC, and expansionist spending proposals. (Sanders was his first choice. )And in fact I can see why people like much of that stuff. So it comes down to one's judgment of The Donald.

[Pat B]

I don't know many Trump supporters even on line. The one I do, who is intelligent and well educated, is a Leftist. He's also a bit of a loon on economics: supporting tariffs, trade wars, etc. He likes Trump's isolationism, his enmity with the neo-cons, impatience with PC, and expansionist spending proposals. (Sanders was his first choice. )And in fact I can see why people like much of that stuff. So it comes down to one's judgment of The Donald.

I re-wrote my post a couple times. One version mentioned that I didn't generalize that article to all Trump supporters. I should have left that in. I have a friend who is is basically just anti-taxation. I also didn't ask who he's voting for but got the strong impression it is Trump. I have known him for a long time and do not think he is a latent racist.

[Karl Henning]

. . . I have a friend who is basically just anti-taxation.

Good luck with that!