Sound The TRUMPets! A Thread for Presidential Pondering 2016-2020(?)

[drogulus]

"But Democrats seem to be viewing [El Tupé's] troubles as an opportunity to plunge leftward with a more frankly socialistic and culturally liberal message."

     There are a whole bunch of ideas that are considered to be socialistic and culturally liberal that are popular. Such ideas tend to flourish when the proponents can deliver the goods economically, and if they can't or won't deliver the field is wide open for reaction. The '30s and recent history give examples. It isn't the ideas alone, the "heresy factor" is relative to the environment. If conservatives continue as they have in the past, being liberal about old concepts while hostile to the new until the new in turn becomes old, then we can expect the pattern will play out in the future. When universal health coverage is adopted at last, no one will seriously countenance the idea that there is anything to gain by leaving a sizable population without health insurance. The "access" dodge will lose all its usefulness. Conservatives, in the process of not believing it any more, never did. It was all a big misunderstanding. I know, the liberals did it!

[kishnevi]

What about the infamous wall? Any progress on that? Is Trump thinking all the brouhaha caused by his presidency is going to make the people who voted for him forget about the wall?

No, but the brouhaha will be one of the many excuses for not fulfilling his promises.

[Todd]

Handel wins special election in Georgia.  No less an authority than the Amazon Post called this very election a referendum on Trump earlier today.  Dems have got the losing thing down pat.

[Karl Henning]

In reality, the Democrats did exceptionally well in a district no one would have expected them to win six months ago with an atmosphere in which both health care and [El Tupé's] Russia scandal were front and center.

[Turner]

"NYT: Trump is considering limiting press briefings to once a week, asking reporters to submit written questions. "

"The biggest shift Mr. Trump is discussing is a dramatic change to the briefing room schedule, including limiting briefings that he has described as a "spectacle" to once a week and asking reporters to submit written questions. Some of Mr. Trump's outside advisers, including the Fox News host Sean Hannity, have urged him to curtail the freewheeling — and often embarrassing — barrage of questions. Mr. Trump has been particularly irked by CNN, and other allies such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich have suggested banning the cable network."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/us/politics/im-right-here-sean-spicer-says-while-toiling-to-find-successor.html

[Todd]

In reality, the Democrats did exceptionally well in a district no one would have expected them to win six months ago with an atmosphere in which both health care and [El Tupé's] Russia scandal were front and center.

That's the positive spin for anti-Trump folks.

[drogulus]

That's the positive spin for anti-Trump folks.

     If it's only spin, fine, but if it's true that Dems are outperforming, it's spin but not just. The Georgia case, though, isn't good news for Dems. Trump won very narrowly in the district, Dems should have been able to tip this one. The improvement in their losing margin was nowhere near what it had been in other elections. After we determine what the spin is we can get to what happened, or we can get to it and not worry about what is or isn't spin and leave that to...experts.

[Todd]

but if it's true that Dems are outperforming

But they're not.  One might be able to write such a sentence if the Dems had won.  They lost. 

[71 dB]

They lost.

The question is why did they lose?

[Karl Henning]

In the end, it was a bad and expensive bet. [Democrats] tried hard and lost, and Republicans tried hard and won, period. And it reinforces the idea that Republicans in such districts — i.e. highly affluent, suburban ones where [El Tupé] struggled — aren't necessarily doomed by [El Tupé's] unpopularity. We saw that in the 2016 election, when Republicans kept winning these districts despite [El Tupé]. If that continues to be the case in 2018, Democrats' task of winning back the majority just became much more difficult.

[drogulus]

But they're not.  One might be able to write such a sentence if the Dems had won.  They lost. 

     No, one would not write such a sentence about who won. I wrote it about the Dems not performing as well as they had recently, where they improved from the minus 20s to near even. Based on that they thought they might pick off the Georgia district, where Trump won narrowly. It's bad news that they didn't. Losing the race is about one seat, their failure to outperform is about not taking the House in 2018. The proper question is about what this election might say about future elections. Repubs and Dems are studying this right now, they need to know and maybe later to spin, but first they need to know so they can choose how to spin.

[Karl Henning]

     No, one would not write such a sentence about who won. I wrote it about the Dems not performing as well as they had recently, where they improved from the minus 20s to near even. Based on that they thought they might pick off the Georgia district, where Trump won narrowly. It's bad news that they didn't. Losing the race is about one seat, their failure to outperform is about not taking the House in 2018. The proper question is about what this election might say about future elections. Repubs and Dems are studying this right now, they need to know and maybe later to spin, but first they need to know so they can choose how to spin.

Well, at least El Tupé characterizing it as a huge win for himself is not spin.

[kishnevi]

The Georgia election is a half full half empty glass.

You can say that the Democrats failed to win despite everything going for them (seemingly),  and that, not only did Handel outperform Trump, but that Ossoff actually did worse in the runoff than he did in the original election back in April.

Or you can note that between November and now, the Republican vote share declined precipitously.  Price got all most two thirds of the vote in November, Handel a very slim majority.

Take your choice.

[drogulus]

The Georgia election is a half full half empty glass.

You can say that the Democrats failed to win despite everything going for them (seemingly),  and that, not only did Handel outperform Trump, but that Ossoff actually did worse in the runoff than he did in the original election back in April.

Or you can note that between November and now, the Republican vote share declined precipitously.  Price got all most two thirds of the vote in November, Handel a very slim majority.

Take your choice.

     That's more like it. But I won't take a choice until I know what's mine. Parenthetically I find it more respectful to tell people they are evil than to troll pointlessly, which shows contempt for everyone who reads the comments. The dialogue is not just about what you know, it's about how and what you can learn. Also, I suspect you are evil.

[Todd]

Losing the race is about one seat

That's more positive spin.  Hey, it was AmPo who wrote that the election was a referendum on Trump, not me.  I'm just happy Dems are 0-4 in post-November special elections. 

[Karl Henning]

But . . . we thought you were disappointed that one party controls both the Executive and Legislative branches?  We both note that this is a highly specialized sense of the verb control.

[Todd]

But . . . we thought you were disappointed that one party controls both the Executive and Legislative branches?

I am.  This one special election - well, all four special elections combined - would not have changed that.  Dems have to wait until 2018 to take back at least one chamber.  They need to do a better job coming up with good candidates and a meaningful message; they need more of a message than "Trump is bad!!!!!"  I actually won't mind if the Dems win both houses and sweep the Senate races, because whatever grandiose promises they may make, and whatever precious dreams they may have, they will not have the votes to remove Trump.  But they can bring the federal government to a grinding halt.  I fully encourage such behavior. 

(A big plus if Dems win both houses is that they may very well overreach.  They will almost certainly impeach Trump, but I can see them attempting to impeach Pence, too, thereby revealing their true motivation: election nullification.)

In the meantime, I revel in the anguish and disappointment of the Democrat party. 

[Karl Henning]

Dems [...] need to do a better job coming up with good candidates and a meaningful message; they need more of a message than "Trump is bad!!!!!"

No lie.

[Todd]

I'll just let the AmPo blog headline say it all: The Daily 202: Democrats despondent, Trump emboldened after GOP victory in Georgia special election.

What a beautiful first full day of summer!

[Todd]

Such a beautiful headline from the failing New York Times: Democrats Seethe After Georgia Loss: 'Our Brand Is Worse Than Trump'