Sound The TRUMPets! A Thread for Presidential Pondering 2016-2020(?)

[Karl Henning]

Yeah, but I'm done now. So fed up of everything. Bye.

What do you want from me Karl? Admire RVW's symphonies? Vandermolen seems the only friendly person here.

You do not see that my encouraging you to distance yourself from a troll is with your benefit in view?

[SimonNZ]

So: Trump flies to Paris for memorial for World War One dead, but then cancels appearance because...its raining.

[André]

So: Trump flies to Paris for memorial for World War One dead, but then cancels appearance because...its raining.

"The Paris weather forecast calls for more rain on Sunday"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/trump-and-macron-meet-whats-left-to-talk-about/2018/11/10/680a014c-e1ec-11e8-ba30-a7ded04d8fac_story.html?utm_term=.d4df89042e02

4,3 million Americans fought in WWI, 116000 died.

[SimonNZ]

To be fair, his bone spurs really give him hell when it rains.

Also "I like soldiers who don't get shot"

[amw]

There is, of course, some truth to this in a fair number of places, though in the case of Oregon - not Vermont white, but still very white overall - the effect of race on electoral outcomes is not significant.  The 3rd District is about 80% white, and Blumenauer got 72% of the vote.  There's much more of an ideological and partisan component to the voting in the district.  Republicans field only tomato cans (if anyone) in the district, and funnel money elsewhere.

There's a reasonable chance that Oregon picks up a Congressional seat after 2020, but with the current (Republican) Secretary of State stricken with cancer, the probability is that Dems will take that position in 2020, and the freshly reelected Democrat governor will probably just rubber stamp whatever the Democrat Secretary and Democrat legislature scribble on paper.  Then it's off to court.

Oregon is a weird case yes, and shows the limitations of the two-party system. In terms of political orientation it seems to be more libertarian/anti-government than anything else, with a strong undercurrent of white nationalism, but turned blue during the 1990s when democrats became a neoliberal corporate party and republicans shifted to an evangelical religious base, which coincided with the growth in wealth and population of the Portland metro area. Iirc your governor was in trouble this cycle because the latest Republican shift away from religion towards xenophobia and nationalism re-engaged the white supremacists who were never going to support a Mike Pence figure, although I think she still won.

But for example in my home district, NY's 13th, which covers East Harlem and the South Bronx, Adriano Espaillat was re-elected with something like 93% of the vote—I don't actually know if anyone bothered to run against him. As a representative of the working-class dominican community in the area and a public housing advocate he is basically from a different party than his predecessor Charles Rangel who would also be re-elected unopposed or by wide margins for about thirty years, and focused his efforts on protecting the relatively wealthy black community in Harlem & attracting gentrifiers. But obviously a Republican could never win in the district because since the 1960s the Republicans have been implacably committed to white identity politics and there just aren't a lot of white people in the district, so it was stuck with whoever got through a Democratic primary. And go down to the Upper East Side in NY-12, where Carolyn Maloney was also re-elected with about 72% of the vote, and people are also Democrats even if they're terrified to go north of 96th Street and would be happy to see the entire population of East Harlem locked up in Rikers. Why? The Portland issue—religious bigotry and xenophobia are bad for business in a city without many evangelicals—plus they think Trump, George W., etc are crass, cheeseburger eating lowlifes who have never attended an opera or consumed a fine caviar. They will probably go Republican as soon as they get the chance to vote for Henry Cabot Lodge IV.

All of this would of course be different if we had a parliamentary mixed member proportional system like a civilised country.

[Todd]

Oregon is a weird case yes, and shows the limitations of the two-party system. In terms of political orientation it seems to be more libertarian/anti-government than anything else, with a strong undercurrent of white nationalism, but turned blue during the 1990s when democrats became a neoliberal corporate party and republicans shifted to an evangelical religious base, which coincided with the growth in wealth and population of the Portland metro area. Iirc your governor was in trouble this cycle because the latest Republican shift away from religion towards xenophobia and nationalism re-engaged the white supremacists who were never going to support a Mike Pence figure, although I think she still won.

Unfortunately, your facts are wrong or incomplete.  First, Oregon's largest city, Portland, which basically controls the state or at least has unparalleled influence, has not had an elected Republican mayor since the 1950s.  Second, the state of Oregon effectively shifted to Dems when admitted child rapist Neil Goldschmidt was elected governor in 1986.  Third, Oregon's governor was never in trouble this cycle, not even close, and Oregon Republicans in the valley always stay mainstream, with the candidate Knute Buehler in this cycle stressing his supposed independence, though he also wisely didn't mention the fact that Phil Knight poured at least $2.5 million into his campaign.  Younger true believers in the Republican party had high hopes for Buehler, but more experienced hands figured on a Brown win the whole time.  (Internal polling never looked especially good for Buehler.)

Oregon does indeed have a white supremacist past, which reached its zenith in the 1920s, when the Klan was all the rage, including with the Dems, whose 1924 convention was nicknamed the Klanbake, and where Tommy Wilson's son-in-law Billy McAdoo was a contender - with the support of the Klan, it should be noted.  White nationalist groups were active in the Oregon in some notable numbers into the late 80s, with the Aryan Nations the most visible group (naturally, given Oregon's location), but they fizzled away.  In southern and eastern parts of the state, one can still catch glimpses of the recent past, but they are rare indeed.  White nationalism is a phony bogeyman, but it has its uses for the left as well as the right. 

[amw]

Yes feel free to correct me if I'm wrong—I know Oregon went for Reagan twice, & wasn't a reliably blue state on the presidential level until Clinton also won it twice, but not sure at what point it basically became "Portlandia" with the influx of out-of-state wealthy ex-hippies who now define its image.

I was thinking mostly of the south with regard to the white nationalists et al—from people I know in the Eugene, Ashland & Klamath Falls areas, that's definitely still a problem there, although mostly young men unaffiliated with older groups like the Klan & who are very amateurish about it. Not really on the same level as the Bundy Ranch guys. And groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers do regularly show up in Portland to march around, but they seem to be mostly from out of state. (At their most recent Portland outing some right-wing neo-fascist group had most of their vehicles towed for illegal parking and needed to raise money to get back to Seattle.)

[Todd]

I know Oregon went for Reagan twice, & wasn't a reliably blue state on the presidential level until Clinton also won it twice, but not sure at what point it basically became "Portlandia" with the influx of out-of-state wealthy ex-hippies who now define its image.

Most states went for Reagan twice, so nothing much can be learned from that, and there was only one one-term president between Reagan and Clinton.

The shift in Oregon politics started in earnest in the early 80s, when the timber industry started to be regulated almost out of existence, a fate shared by other extractive industries and affiliated towns throughout the west.  (Even once (comparatively) mighty Roseburg has an active half and a dead half, and I mean just about literally half, today.)  About the same time, Nike started growing and Intel started opening its massive fabs in the Aloha and Hillsboro area, plucking some Tektronix talent in the process.  (It's almost like Intel execs knew where to site the fabs.)  This brought an influx of people from outside the state.  Through industry clustering (Adidas has a large presence in the area now, for instance) and support industries, the workforce changed and with it the voting patterns.  Also, there was a large influx of refugees from Southeast Asia that started coming in the late 70s up through around the mid-80s, supplanting the established Japanese and Chinese dominance of Asian sub-cultures, and Latin American immigration, mostly from Mexico at first, and then from other countries, expanded to provide workers for the agricultural sector all over the state, and this continues today.  Some cities just to the west of where I live are peppered with businesses that are either bi-lingual (English and Spanish) or mono-lingual (Spanish).  Voting patterns follow demographics in a fairly predictable way, though always in fits and starts.

I was thinking mostly of the south with regard to the white nationalists et al—from people I know in the Eugene, Ashland & Klamath Falls areas, that's definitely still a problem there, although mostly young men unaffiliated with older groups like the Klan & who are very amateurish about it. Not really on the same level as the Bundy Ranch guys. And groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers do regularly show up in Portland to march around, but they seem to be mostly from out of state. (At their most recent Portland outing some right-wing neo-fascist group had most of their vehicles towed for illegal parking and needed to raise money to get back to Seattle.)

I'd be interested in seeing the stats on white nationalism being a problem in Eugene, which is deeper blue (and speckled with dark greens) than even Portland.  Maybe in the exurbs.  Ashland and Klamath Falls combined have a smaller population than the bedroom community I live in, so whatever problem exists there is basically irrelevant and indicates not a whole lot.  In Ashland, I'd be more concerned about stoned drivers inebriated from the various pot festivals that predate legalization, or perhaps unimmunized people, than white nationalists.

[amw]

In Eugene it seems to be the extremely online type of Anime Nazis—alt-right Pepe the Frog guys— & they're mostly based in U of O and taking advantage of its excessively liberal free speech policies. At least that's what I've heard. Cannot vouch for this with stats or personal experience.

Anywhere in Oregon you're probably still more likely to be crushed to death by a careless driver's poorly secured whitewater kayak than killed by a white nationalist. By "a problem" I just mean that they don't feel the need to wear hoods anymore and are organising publicly; we are as yet nowhere near 1920s levels, anywhere in the country.

[Todd]

excessively liberal free speech policies.

There is and can be no such thing.  There is too much restriction of speech everywhere, even in Oregon, though this is one area where, because of its State Constitution, Oregon bests other places.  The Oregon State Supreme Court ruled that stripping is protected speech, for instance.

Online white supremacists are punks.  Real ones are much worse. 

[milk]

In Eugene it seems to be the extremely online type of Anime Nazis—alt-right Pepe the Frog guys— & they're mostly based in U of O and taking advantage of its excessively liberal free speech policies. At least that's what I've heard. Cannot vouch for this with stats or personal experience.

Anywhere in Oregon you're probably still more likely to be crushed to death by a careless driver's poorly secured whitewater kayak than killed by a white nationalist. By "a problem" I just mean that they don't feel the need to wear hoods anymore and are organizing publicly; we are as yet nowhere near 1920s levels, anywhere in the country.

When I was studying in Portland I saw a white supremacist recruiting video on public access. Naturally I was horrified that this was out in the open and getting a spot along with anyone else wanting to do public access. At the time I was so angry I called the station and they explained their free speech policy. Years later I've kind of changed my opinion about this issue. It is free speech and while I hate it, I don't think I'd want to outlaw it anymore. I'm guessing this would be illegal in some places due to hate-speech laws.

[zamyrabyrd]

Yeah, but I'm done now. So fed up of everything. Bye.
What do you want from me Karl? Admire RVW's symphonies? Vandermolen seems the only friendly person here.

We disagree often but you're OK by me. I may be partial to Finns because I want them to take good care of my son over there.
ZB

[71 dB]

I had a bad day yesterday and I'm not used to having "trolls" on a classical music forum. I guess trolls are now everywhere...  The World is so crazy I don't know anymore who is a troll and how to handle it. I am a someone who used to live in a World that made more sense...

We disagree often but you're OK by me. I may be partial to Finns because I want them to take good care of my son over there.
ZB

That's nice of you zb.  0:)

I'm sure your son is ok. Does he communicate with you about Finland? Has he been "force fed" Salmiakki, Mämmi and has he experienced Finnish sauna?

[amw]

Online white supremacists are punks.  Real ones are much worse. 

Honestly after Charlottesville and the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting I don't see much difference. I grew up in an area with a heavy militia presence and both kinds primarily like parading around with large amounts of firearms and pretending to be Robert E. Lee. There are certainly internal cultural differences, as revealed by one amusing video of a bunch of Aryan Nation guys beating up a Richard Spencer groupie for being a nerd, but with groups like Atomwaffen and the III%ers who do as much organising online as in real life the distinction seems increasingly meaningless. And a lot of the deaths this year from terrorism in the USA & Canada have been from guys who were radicalised online (the Blaze Bernstein killer, the Kentucky Kroger shooter, the Toronto van dude, etc) so I think it's a mistake to assume all of them are all talk and no action.

[zamyrabyrd]

I'm sure your son is ok. Does he communicate with you about Finland? Has he been "force fed" Salmiakki, Mämmi and has he experienced Finnish sauna?

The cheese and sausage he brings back here are very good but he never said anything about ammonium chloride based candies.  He is sort of a meat and potatoes guy, so not that experimental in food. I don't think he goes to saunas either but likes to swim in the lake at night.

[North Star]

The cheese and sausage he brings back here are very good but he never said anything about ammonium chloride based candies.  He is sort of a meat and potatoes guy, so not that experimental in food. I don't think he goes to saunas either but likes to swim in the lake at night.

It's getting pretty cold for nightly swims here..

[zamyrabyrd]

It's getting pretty cold for nightly swims here..

Pretty soon you can walk on them, presumably.

[arpeggio]

There is so much going on here that I have troubled keeping up with everything.

It still amazes me that many non-Americans have a better grasp of the situation than many of my countrymen.

[North Star]

Pretty soon you can walk on them, presumably.

In a couple of months, probably. Rather depends on the weather, which has been unusually warm.

[Todd]

Honestly after Charlottesville and the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting I don't see much difference...I think it's a mistake to assume all of them are all talk and no action.

Understandable on the first part, and I never indicated that all are just talk.  Some clearly mean business.  The two situations are a bit different in scale and scope and implication.  While the latter was more deadly, it is ultimately harder to guard against, and it is difficult to see speech suppression having a material effect.  The former is more worrisome because if/when various such groups become more organized and active is when larger scale problems arise.  That's where robust monitoring of local protest/march permitting and a more robust police presence during protests/marches comes in handy.