Sound The TRUMPets! A Thread for Presidential Pondering 2016-2020(?)

[drogulus]

     Most Americans Don't Give a $h#@ About the Stock Market

     Barry Ritholtz is a smart guy. He imagines a world in which more people can care about stocks in a way that works for them. He has proposals that are better than the ones Dems tend to favor. Dems want to find someone to punish more than they want to help those who need it. I think a positive economic policy isn't a punishment mechanism at all. Barry is right about that. All of his recommendations are good ones.

[JBS]

     Here are 18 reasons Trump could be a Russian asset

     My favorite is:

Once in office, Trump fired Comey to stop the investigation of the "Russia thing" — and then bragged about having done so to the Russian ambassador and foreign minister while also sharing with them top-secret information. Later, Trump fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions because he would not end the special counsel investigation that resulted after the firing of Comey. As Lawfare editor Benjamin Wittes argues, "the obstruction was the collusion" — Trump has been effectively protecting the Russians by trying to impede the investigation of their attack on the United States.

     IOW the plain sight obstruction of investigation into TrumPutin in all its glory is not just proof of obstruction, it is the collusion itself. What else the collusion amounts to is being uncovered, but the idea that we need else to uncover or there is no collusion is not going to fly. It's already crashed.

     McCabe had the same reaction to meeting with Trump as Comey did. A mob boss was trying to manipulate him into supporting a cover up and he needed to protect the investigation that was to come from mob attempts to destroy it. I think we are past the point of wondering how they both came to the same conclusion.

Not that fast.
Collusion would involve 1) Trump doing things on behalf of Russia because they help Russia and 2) co-ordination of his actions with Russia.

What actually seems to have happened is that Trump took those actions for his own benefit,  without caring if they helped or hurt Russia. Which is obstruction but is not collusion.

[JBS]

     Most Americans Don't Give a $h#@ About the Stock Market

     Barry Ritholtz is a smart guy. He imagines a world in which more people can care about stocks in a way that works for them. He has proposals that are better than the ones Dems tend to favor. Dems want to find someone to punish more than they want to help those who need it. I think a positive economic policy isn't a punishment mechanism at all. Barry is right about that. All of his recommendations are good ones.

What he proposes under the rubric of payroll contributions is effectively available to employees now, except that it is done as part of the 401k and not as contributions to an outside IRA. But you can already make 401k contributions tax deferred,  and then roll them over to your own IRA when you leave the employer.

Also, Bush43's tax cuts, unlike Trump's, included an outright cut for every taxpayer, by means of introducing a bottom tax bracket of 10% instead of 15%...meaning 5% less tax on the first  $15,000 (I may be wrong on that dollar amount) of income, or about $750 less per year.

[drogulus]

Not that fast.
Collusion would involve 1) Trump doing things on behalf of Russia because they help Russia and 2) co-ordination of his actions with Russia.

What actually seems to have happened is that Trump took those actions for his own benefit,  without caring if they helped or hurt Russia. Which is obstruction but is not collusion.

     Wittes argues that the case is about Russia and then who helped them, wittingly or unwittingly, for personal gain or to cover their own involvement with Russian agents.

What he proposes under the rubric of payroll contributions is effectively available to employees now, except that it is done as part of the 401k and not as contributions to an outside IRA. But you can already make 401k contributions tax deferred,  and then roll them over to your own IRA when you leave the employer.

     Many people would benefit from opening their own IRAs and not waiting to roll them over. By that time they've had their total return sapped by fees for decades. This is a problem I know from experience. The contributions should go directly to the employees chosen retirement vehicle and if that person wants to mess it up, so be it, that's better than having it pre-messed up. At least the employee will have a chance to get what the market offers.

[BasilValentine]

While we've been distracted by Trump's recent actions and senile rants, filings in a federal court in N. Virginia have revealed that the Mueller investigation has direct documentary evidence of conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russian military intelligence. It came to light in the response to a motion filed by Roger Stone's lawyers in which they were seeking to have his case uncoupled from one against Russian operatives. Their motion was denied because the evidence in Stone's case (18cr215) was gathered under the same warrants Mueller used to indict twelve members of the GRU. From Mueller prosecutors' response to Stone's motion:

The object of the conspiracy was to hack into the computers of U.S. persons and entities involved in the 2016 ... election, steal documents from those computers, and stage releases of the stolen documents to interfere with the U.S. presidential election.... Several of those warrants were executed on accounts that contained Stone's communications with Guccifer 2.0 and Organization 1. [Wikileaks].

So, while Stone was lying publicly and in sworn testimony that he had no contact with the Russians or Wikileaks, Mueller already had the goods on him.

In related news, Mueller signed a sentencing recommendation of 19.5-24.5 years in the Paul Manafort case for his continued lies to the special prosecutor. What Manafort was lying about was a meeting in a cigar bar atop 666 Fifth Ave in Manhattan (a building owned by the Kushner family) on August 2, 2016. The meeting was attended by Manafort, Rick Gates (deputy campaign chair) and Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian linked to the GRU. The three principals left the building by separate doors afterward. Seems they were coordinating the release of hacked emails. My speculation: This information was obtained from Gates when Mueller flipped him and then used to nail his boss Manafort.

So, it seems clear that Mueller has direct evidence of conspiracy by the Trump campaign with Russian military intelligence on multiple fronts and by multiple actors. If it can be shown that Trump knew of these communications and meetings — and you can be sure they are now trying to flip Roger Stone to testify to this, Trump will be dead meat.

The documents quoted above were obtained and posted by Rachel Maddow.   

[Karl Henning]

This Trump performance is why people talk about the 25th Amendment
https://wapo.st/2N9dho1

[Todd]

This Trump performance is why people talk about the 25th Amendment
https://wapo.st/2N9dho1

What people?  Is it them?  I think this is what, the seventh or eighth time various boobs have brought it up.  Maybe this time it means something other than a way to scribble a mandated number of column inches each week.

Anyway, this week was great.  We got an Emergency!  Makes me think of one of my favorite shows from way back when:



There were two positive developments this week:

Positive development the first: the federal government will sue itself in federal court.

Positive development the second: we got to see one of Trump's reelection messages:

[drogulus]

     The 25th amendment was discussed by DOJ and one assumes it went nowhere because you can't do it from there. In the media the discussion centers on whether it would be justified. It's not boobish to explore the grounds even if it would be boobish to think Trumpists would do it. The realist view is that kleptocrats aren't about to hunt with the hounds.

     I too am a fan of separation of powers. We need to return to Obama level imperial rule. I'm sure Mitch agrees.

[Todd]

It's not boobish to explore the grounds

Of course it is.  It's also coup-ish.

[drogulus]

Of course it is.  It's also coup-ish.

     The President is unfit. The 25th Amendment is an un-coupish way of removing an unfit President. That's what the amendment is for. I also disagree that it's "coupish" to discuss the grounds for the President's removal. We still have liberty in this country.

[Todd]

The President is unfit. The 25th Amendment is an un-coupish way of removing an unfit President. That's what the amendment is for. I also disagree that it's "coupish" to discuss the grounds for the President's removal. We still have liberty in this country.

Yep, you suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome; you have lost your grip on reality.  I already knew that.  Feel free to drool on about the 25th Amendment.

[drogulus]

So, it seems clear that Mueller has direct evidence of conspiracy by the Trump campaign with Russian military intelligence on multiple fronts and by multiple actors. If it can be shown that Trump knew of these communications and meetings — and you can be sure they are now trying to flip Roger Stone to testify to this, Trump will be dead meat.

     I doubt this will be a "donut hole" conspiracy, where the boss is the only one left out of the loop. Trump is a "Paulie", a stupider one who talks on phones, Twitter, TV interviews etc. More important is that everyone talks to him, the calls he takes count, too. Now we know the numbers Donnie Jr called after the TT adoption meeting were to friends of Individual 1. That's tradecraft!

Yep, you suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome; you have lost your grip on reality.  I already knew that.  Feel free to drool on about the 25th Amendment.

     Thank you for the gift of liberty. I've made it clear I don't think Trumpists will fire the boss.

[Todd]

I've made it clear I don't think Trumpists will fire the boss.

And you've also made it clear that you think the president is "unfit", as if that means something, and that the 25th Amendment can be legitimately applied to Trump.  You are still desperately and boobishly looking for a way to nullify the 2016 election.  You display classic symptoms of Trump Derangement Syndrome. 

[drogulus]

And you've also made it clear that you think the president is "unfit", as if that means something, and that the 25th Amendment can be legitimately applied to Trump.  You are still desperately and boobishly looking for a way to nullify the 2016 election.  You display classic symptoms of Trump Derangement Syndrome. 

     The 25th Amendment can be legitimately applied to whoever is deemed to be unfit. I'm not a participant being desperate. It's not up to me how Trump is expelled, if he is. I note that the 25th Amendment is what we have so we don't have coups, that plus impeachment means that there are legitimate paths to removing the Insane Clown Dictator wannabe. I observe this is true and think it's a good idea to remove the ICD by whatever process can be used. The grounds are there, they are no longer in question. We'll see if Mitch is up to the task when the necessity for a decision comes to him, if and when.

[Todd]

The 25th Amendment can be legitimately applied to whoever is deemed to be unfit.

Drool on.

[drogulus]

Drool on.

     If you have a substantive objection to the "eye of the beholder" definition of unfitness "feel free" to state it.

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.


     I note the amendment does not require a note from a doctor. It doesn't specify in what unfitness consists. It's up to the relevant actors to determine that, the veep and cabinet at first and then Congress if/when a conflict arises between the ICD and the veep/cabinet.

     

[Todd]

     If you have a substantive objection to the "eye of the beholder" definition of unfitness "feel free" to state it.

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.


     I note the amendment does not require a note from a doctor. It doesn't specify in what unfitness consists. It's up to the relevant actors to determine that, the veep and cabinet at first and then Congress if/when a conflict arises between the ICD and the veep/cabinet.

This is awesome.

Seriously, though, you should cling more to fantasies of conviction by the Senate after impeachment.  That is at least plausible.  Well, it's plausible to some people.

[drogulus]

This is awesome.

Seriously, though, you should cling more to fantasies of conviction by the Senate after impeachment.  That is at least plausible.  Well, it's plausible to some people.

      I made my case that the crowd around Trump won't act, I don't have to make it more. As for impeachment I will join the crowd of realists who think we won't know what the chances for impeachment are until some time after the process starts. It doesn't matter how plausible it is now, it only matters how plausible it is that the process will start. That's quite plausible. I judge that Senate votes for impeachment won't be declared in advance. It would be strange if Repubs (or even some Dems) would be eager to commit themselves to a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" public declaration. Why would they do that?

[Todd]

I made my case...

As I said above, there is no place like GMG.

[drogulus]

As I said above, there is no place like GMG.

     Thank you.