Brexit

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Oh yes, next deadline will be Friday...

Brexit fatigue...

[Que]

Brexit fatigue...

On both sides of the Channel... 
Though the rest of the EU can still hope for an orderly Brexit some day in the near future, for the British the rift in society and politics caused by Brexit could last for many years to come.

Next time any referendum should come with two disclaimers:
1. Be careful what you wish for...
2. If one of these options sounds too good to be true, it, in all likelihood, is not...

Q

[Que]

Election time! 

Labour and Tories reluctantly prepare for European elections

Elections for the Evil Empire.... the ultimate humilation for hardline Brexiteers... 

Will Brits turn up to vote?
And how will Labour and the Tories do? Considering their reluctancy, they probably expect not to do well... 
Will the results have ramifications on a national level?

Q

[Mandryka]

.



Honestly, I don't think Brexit is ever going to happen.

Q

That would be extraordinary!

[vandermolen]

This really amused me a while back. My wife is also a sign-language interpreter.
May only be viewable in UK:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46241508/viral-fame-for-brexit-sign-language-interpreter

[DaveF]

Election time! 

Will Brits turn up to vote?

We sure will - in great numbers, both for the Independent Group (Remain) and the Brexit Party.  We'll treat it as the second referendum we probably won't be allowed.

[JBS]

(Mostly for giggle value, if it has any)
Found out tonight that Jacob Rees Mogg has a Brexit living sister named Annunziata.

Shouldn't she change her name to something more British sounding?  I mean, Annunziata sounds pretty European to me.

[vandermolen]

(Mostly for giggle value, if it has any)
Found out tonight that Jacob Rees Mogg has a Brexit living sister named Annunziata.

Shouldn't she change her name to something more British sounding?  I mean, Annunziata sounds pretty European to me.

She's joined the 'Brexit Party'. I won't be joining myself.

[Que]

I'm happy for our UK members: a rupture of economic relations with the rest of Europe hasn't been added to the political chaos.

I'm also happy for the Dutch tax payers, since an estimated €2.3 bln hit through to 2023, accumulating to a €10 bln economic hit by 2030 (1.2 % of GDP) has been avoided... at least for now.... 

And this won't be the last delay, since a Brexit without a 2nd, confirmatory referendum, and probably general elections to create a government that can actually work out a defined Brexit plan, seems highly unlikely.

And considering that Brexit will probably be voted down next time round, Brexit is now already dead in the water... 

Q

[Que]

Chrunch time for Jeremy Corbyn (finally...)

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn under pressure to make bold referendum offer in European elections (Independent)

Q

[JBS]

Chrunch time for Jeremy Corbyn (finally...)

Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn under pressure to make bold referendum offer in European elections (Independent)

Q

I liked the little featurette of film posters reimagined for Brexit to be found at that link....

[Que]

First we witnessed  Donald Trump's intentions to take full advantage of the UK weaker position in future negotiations on a bilateral trade deal.

Now we see Democrats ruling out any trade deal if the UK does not respect the Good Friday Agreement.

Brexit: Nancy Pelosi steps up pressure on UK over Irish border

It seems that without  UK guarantees on the preservation of economic ties between NI and the Republic of Ireland aka " the backstop",  trade deals with either the EU or the US are either impossible or highly disadvantageous.

Q

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

That's mostly posturing, I think.

[Que]

That's mostly posturing, I think.

Isn't there a strong Irish lobby within the Democrats?

Q

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Isn't there a strong Irish lobby within the Democrats?

Q

There are about 5 times are many Irish the U.S. as there are in Ireland. I think their political leanings are not too different from the general population.

I don't doubt Pelosi supports the open border and preservation of the Good Friday agreements and the emphasis of these positions is at least partially motivated by Irish supporters. But I doubt that in the case of a disorderly Brexit there would be a strong will to punish the UK by denying trade agreements. The purpose of the threat is make Brexit seem less appealing. If and when it happens the U.S. will have to adapt to the world as it is.

[JBS]

Isn't there a strong Irish lobby within the Democrats?

Q

If anything extraneous motivated Pelosi, it is probably the simple fact that the Brexiteers and Trumpkins are, if not outright allies, at least ideologically similar: nativism, hostility to established politicians, opposition to "globalism", the feeling that they are victims of the modern economy, hostility to modern cultural trends, etc.

[Que]

Britain looks set to squander the extension period.

I have changed my mind about the likelyhood of a Brexit..... 
If the political paralysis in Westminster continues, which seems now likely, the EU might end this farce end of October by not offering any further extension and let the UK fall of the cliff - unless it revokes the article 50 procedure.
A though choice for the EU, which might be seen as pushing the UK out, but the Brexit impasse is doing continuous economic and political damage to the EU. It might decide to cut its losses...

It seems that up in Scotland they made the same calculation:

Sturgeon wants Scottish independence referendum by 2021

It seems that Sturgeon has is taking the long road with a more politically inclusive approach:

The first minister also predicted: "If we are successful in further growing the support and the demand for independence, then no UK government will be able to stop the will of the people or stop that will being expressed."

She announced she wants cross-party talks with opposition leaders about Holyrood's powers, while a Citizens' Assembly will be set up to examine wider questions on Scotland's future.

If she can convince political forces outside the SNP, independence might stand a chance. Though the final outcome will be heavily dependent on developments in Westminster.

Q

[André]

The EU staunchly supports the central govt in Madrid in its attempt to squelch catalonian independence efforts. I wonder how they'd react to a scottish secession vote? 

[Que]

The EU staunchly supports the central govt in Madrid in its attempt to squelch catalonian independence efforts. I wonder how they'd react to a scottish secession vote? 

I wouldn't call it staunch support, but the EU certainly does go out of its way in avoiding any action that could offset the Spanish government. This is because its loyalty lies first and foremost with the member states.

Scotland could be different in two respects:
1) if the UK govt  agrees to an independence referendum, independence as an outcome of that referendum would be consensual;
2) when the UK is no longer a member state, it would be an external event.

Q

[André]

I wouldn't call it staunch support, but the EU certainly does go out of its way in avoiding any action that could offset the Spanish government. This is because its loyalty lies first and foremost with the member states.

Scotland could be different in two respects:
1) if the UK govt  agrees to an independence referendum, independence as an outcome of that referendum would be consensual;
2) when the UK is no longer a member state, it would be an external event.

Q

I forgot that little detail