Brexit

[Que]

The endgame has begun.... (for real, this time...)

Longest Pound Slide Since 2000 Shows Brexit Respite All But Over (Bloomberg)

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[Sef]

The endgame has begun.... (for real, this time...)

Longest Pound Slide Since 2000 Shows Brexit Respite All But Over (Bloomberg)

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Just paid for my UK holiday and got 1.26 dollars to the Pound. But did I peak too soon (not that I had a choice)?

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Maybe Donald can send Jared Kushner across the bond to settle Brexit. 

(He's already solved the Palestinian/Israeli conflict and immigration.)

[Que]

This analysis by Chris Grey on his Brexit blog reflects my own personal view that all other turns of events than the unlikely revocation of the article 50 (exit) procedure, are going to be pretty disastrous...

Warning: GMG'ers from the UK might find this quite unsettling reading...

Deal or no deal? There's still no end in sight

I'm afraid that what we are going to see the coming months are European elections results split between remain and leave votes, equally disastrous for Labour and Conservatives, followed by a Tory leadership contest. But no progress on Brexit whatsoever...

I think there is a fair chance of Boris Johnson of taking charge of the Tories in an attempted push-back against Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. Boris will then steer towards a hard Brexit.

Any chance of another extention granted by the EU end of October, is getting more remote by the day anyway...

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[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

So, May has given up. What's next, Boris? 

[Marc]

So, May has given up. What's next, Boris? 

A "Clean Brexit".
(No deal.)

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

A "Clean Brexit".
(No deal.)

We saw the dissolution of the Soviet Union and were so smug that their system was not viable. We're next, I'm afraid.

[Marc]

We saw the dissolution of the Soviet Union and were so smug that their system was not viable. We're next, I'm afraid.

Not sure what the system is, or the "we", but... when I, for instance, look at the (non-official until Sunday evening) outcome of the EU election in the Netherlands (where I live), then I still have moderate hopes that some form of democracy will still prevent 'us' from a complete downfall. Maybe the 'established' political parties will wake up again and realize that you need to have inspired politicians with ideas, instead of only laid-back protectors of the 'status quo' (as we have here with Mark Rutte) or overly ambitious wanna be leaders who just think they need to follow and please the voters and get their name in the history books (Theresa May).

Btw: saw 2 commentators on CNN. Conservative Bill Cash and commentator/journalist Liam Halligan. The first one is still living in ancient times (this great country that rescued the European continent twice in the last 100 years or so), and the latter says that the UK has been doing better since the Brexit referendum. They also both showed a certain amount of disgust towards Germany and France, especially Cash, because they want to rule over 'our Brittania-rule-the-waves'. And they are both convinced that a 'no deal' Brexit won't be such a problem.

This could be the main difficulty: the refusal to come to the insight that the world has changed, that the world has become a small village now, and that navel gazing isolationism and harshly broken economical/political relationships (which were not all that bad), might have very serious implications.

Another thing: I live in a country with an overload of political parties. Two decades ago there were some discussions that we maybe should change our democracy system and strive for a 2 or 3 party parliament. I'm glad we didn't. In the Netherlands, politicians always had to negociate and compromise, and I think that's good. Yes, there is division here, but it's not as massive as for instance in the UK or the USA. People here have learned to live with deals. (Even if it was/is with grinding teeth.) Things go slower maybe, but this also mostly means that bad things can be brought to a halt before it's too late.

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Not sure what the system is, or the "we", but...

By "we" I meant the western democracies, particularly the U.S. Maybe Obama was our Gorbachev, Trump is our Yeltsin. We have to insure the next leader is not our Putin.

[Jo498]

I think you (the US) could (and very probably will) do much worse than with a "Putin" as one of the next leaders. Ask any Russian if  Yeltsin was preferable to Putin.

[Marc]

By "we" I meant the western democracies, particularly the U.S. Maybe Obama was our Gorbachev, Trump is our Yeltsin. We have to insure the next leader is not our Putin.

Even though the world has changed, we can still learn from history I think.
Nationalism leads to imposed pride, to conflicts and to xenophobia.
Let's hope that sanity prevails.

[prémont]

So, May has given up.

Very appropiate, since we are approaching the end of May.

[Marc]

Very appropiate, since we are approaching the end of May.

LOL

[Jo498]

If we want to learn from history we first have to recognize that almost all modern societies are founded on the concept of a nation state. Modern democracy, participation, rule of law, social security/welfare etc. are all exceedingly rare without a nation state.

The crazy thing "we" (i.e. European mainstream press and parties) have done is to taint the desire to stick with this political structure that is the basis of modern society as "nationalism" and blame nationalism as the cause of all evils. True, the two huge wars of the first half of the 20th century were based in nationalism. But countless other wars before and after were not. Historically, the main alternative to a nation state (or proto-nation-state like the Italian city states of the middle ages) is an Empire. Historically, it's really odd to hope to transform Europe from nation states into some kind of Empire and THEREFORE hope for more peace with those outside the Empire and more democratic participation for those inside.

I don't want to defend the Brexiteers. But the current strategy of most mainstream parties in (Western) Europe to taint everyone who does not agree with the dogma that the not very democratic bureaucratic Moloch of the current EU institutions is our salvation as populist, nationalist, from last century, enemy of peace etc. is absolutely despicable. The only chance to save some of the EU (not sure how much of it is worth saving) is to admit the problems and work on them. And to admit that many things still have to be done nationally (or maybe even better regionally), mainly because there is far more democratic control. The EU is almost completely in the hand of lobbys and bureaucrats. It's a lobbycratureship.

[Marc]

If we want to learn from history we first have to recognize that almost all modern societies are founded on the concept of a nation state. Modern democracy, participation, rule of law, social security/welfare etc. are all exceedingly rare without a nation state.

The crazy thing "we" (i.e. European mainstream press and parties) have done is to taint the desire to stick with this political structure that is the basis of modern society as "nationalism" and blame nationalism as the cause of all evils. True, the two huge wars of the first half of the 20th century were based in nationalism. But countless other wars before and after were not. Historically, the main alternative to a nation state (or proto-nation-state like the Italian city states of the middle ages) is an Empire. Historically, it's really odd to hope to transform Europe from nation states into some kind of Empire and THEREFORE hope for more peace with those outside the Empire and more democratic participation for those inside.

I don't want to defend the Brexiteers. But the current strategy of most mainstream parties in (Western) Europe to taint everyone who does not agree with the dogma that the not very democratic bureaucratic Moloch of the current EU institutions is our salvation as populist, nationalist, from last century, enemy of peace etc. is absolutely despicable. The only chance to save some of the EU (not sure how much of it is worth saving) is to admit the problems and work on them. And to admit that many things still have to be done nationally (or maybe even better regionally), mainly because there is far more democratic control. The EU is almost completely in the hand of lobbys and bureaucrats. It's a lobbycratureship.

I do understand the sentiments. I voted against a European constitution in 2005. And I don't believe in the European Union as a forced constructed bureaucratic Moloch. But I will always be against blind nationalism, feelings of arrogant superiority et al. So I was not talking about those who want the EU to slow down a bit, and be more transparent and democratic. I'm talking about nationalistic clowns like Farage, Johnson, and, in the Netherlands, Wilders and Baudet, the latter being our country's most beloved joke-intellectual at (for?) the moment and gaining sufficient political ground with his nonsense talk about Nexit and the ideal (white/male/Western European) "boreal world", utter nonsense which he borrowed from Jean-Marie Le Pen.

[Ghost of Baron Scarpia]

Here in the states some draw a distinction between 'patriotism' and 'nationalism.' The first involves loyalty and love for ones country and its ideals, and solidarity with compatriots, without the implication that other countries are superior or subservient. It is a semantic distinction that not every recognizes.

[Que]

I don't want to defend the Brexiteers. But the current strategy of most mainstream parties in (Western) Europe to taint everyone who does not agree with the dogma that the not very democratic bureaucratic Moloch of the current EU institutions is our salvation as populist, nationalist, from last century, enemy of peace etc. is absolutely despicable. The only chance to save some of the EU (not sure how much of it is worth saving) is to admit the problems and work on them. And to admit that many things still have to be done nationally (or maybe even better regionally), mainly because there is far more democratic control. The EU is almost completely in the hand of lobbys and bureaucrats. It's a lobbycratureship.

The image of the EU bureaucracy being an not so democratic moloch is just a - very persistent - popular myth...

Just compare the 33.000 EU civil servants to the over 300.000 Beamte of the federal German government... 

The EU is run by a very influential directly elected parliament and the governments of the member states. Any lack of transparency in decision making is mainly due to the deals the member states make behind closed doors. Yet common wisdom resists a federal setup, which would these governments out of the equation.

The complexities of joint decision making between 28 member states requires a rule based - bureaucratic - process
To ensure objectivity and avoid national bias from the more powerfull member states, the preparation of proposals is entrusted to the European Commission.The EC has a strong position, but doesn't make the political decisions.

Do you really think Brussels is more bureaucratic than Paris or Berlin?  Think again...

As to lobby groups - any centre of political power attracts them. They are also active in London, Paris and Berlin, believe me.
Whether they are particularly influential in Brussels, I'm not so sure... Some are, some are not.. It seems that the likes of Google and Microsoft have considerably less clout in Brussels than in Washington. Farmers have an influential lobby, but that replicates the situation in many member states. And then there is industry, and environmental groups... Lobbying is not necessarily a bad thing, sometimes there are important messages to tell politicans and civil servants.

If anything, the most important lobby groups that are active in Brussels are the British and French governments, with the German government outdoing them all in power and influence.There is literally NO decision by the EU, and I mean none whatsoever, that is taken without the backing of the representatives of the German government.

So, any claim that the EU is actually run by Germany is in a way more true than your claim that it is run by bureaucrats and lobby groups.

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[Mandryka]

Led by donkeys

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/billboard-campaigners-brexit-led-by-donkeys
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/led-by-donkeys-reveal-identities-brexit-billboards-posters

[Que]

Theresa May's post mortem by Chris Grey:

Theresa May's demise

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[Que]

Perhaps someone could explain why there are so many contenders for the leadership of the Tories at this auspicious moment in time? 

Because this is what will await the "winner"....



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