Coronavirus thread

[Karl Henning]

You are not correct that Texas enacted no lockdown nor social distancing. Texas was a bit behind the curve, but there was a substantial lockdown (which is in the process of being lifted) and social distancing remains in effect. Moving from California to Texas, I did not note a substantial difference in the coronavirus response in April. Texas has been more zealous in lifting restrictions. (Of course, this applies to the specific areas I observed.)

Thanks for the emendations. And fare thee well!

[MusicTurner]

Europe - the first wave seems to be over?

Though the definition of 'Europe' is incomplete and omits the Balkans, I think this is one good, very detailed source for current developments in most European regions, in relation to the various, either worrying or non-worried, media reports these days.

And yes, Sweden is a bit of an exception, the number of infected rising with about 1000 per day (1400 today actually, but the average number of daily fatalities going down somewhat). This is the background info that results in the hesitating of other countries to accept a flux of visitors from Sweden.

Though I'm tempted a bit to go abroad by my government's current suggestion of non-domestic vacations in only Germany, Norway or Iceland, I'll still play safe and have domestic holidays only. This applies to all the people I know, except from a young couple who are experienced hikers in the wilderness in Northern Scandinavia; they might consider Northern Sweden, but will be camping in a forest environment then.

There is now an increasing pressure from the EU towards the opening of most borders quickly this summer, but I think at least my government will withstand for a while.

Here in Denmark, we've had quite a few days now with no fatalities; but a general loosening in the general, social approach and some big, ultimately quite careless city demonstrations organized by Black Lives Matter etc. have increased worries that the numbers might start rising again, together with flux of foreign tourists from Germany and Norway expected from next Monday, the 15th of June. Testing is quite wide-spread now, the currently reached status is that about 10% of the population has been tested. There are between 15 and 80 new, registered infections every day in a population of 5.8 mio., and one can now go to the pharmacy and have a test, for about DKK 250-300, which is roughly 30-40 Euros. Local vaccine scientists have successfully applied a vaccine on mice and celebrated it with champagne, but the next step is testing it with people too.

This version of the map stems from
https://innovationorigins.com/is-europe-finally-free-of-corona-the-first-wave-seems-to-be-over/

Earlier versions and more details can be found here
https://innovationorigins.com/mapping-the-corona-pandemic-at-subnational-european-level/

[prémont]

Europe - the first wave seems to be over?

Though the definition of 'Europe' is incomplete and omits the Balkans, I think this is one good, very detailed source for current developments in most European regions, in relation to the various worrying or non-worried media reports these days.

Hmm, I am living in one of the green areas with very few cases. The risk is of course, that a possible second wave will hit harder (falling upon virgin ground).

[drogulus]

     Let me say something that might appear odd. OK, thanks. Some time ago I investigated nuclear strategy as warmongers do. The idea was to get the concepts and see how they cohere and correspond generally. For this purpose a little history was helpful.

     A concept in nuclear strategy is "degrading the offense". Because it's a credible war strategy it's a good deterrent strategy, which is the goal. The idea is that imperfect defenses can be too difficult to overcome, in effect breaking the offensive budget.

     Face masks don't even have to work especially well to be effective

Mask use actually has two different functions. To a degree, it limits the ability of people who are infected to put infectious particles into the environment. And to a potentially different degree, it limits access to two of the primary routes by which those particles can reach new hosts: the mouth and nose. It's not a complete solution, as a person's eyes are still uncovered, and the degree of effectiveness will vary based on how many potentially infectious particles are filtered out. Still, even a crude mask is likely to capture many of the largest particles we produce, and those are the ones that will carry the most viruses.


     Masks degrade the virus offense when you wear them, and more when others do, too. The aggregate effect is to limit virus spread in a way that analysis of individual mask properties won't tell you.

     Aggregate effects are the ball game. Is that bad mask making you safe? At the micro level, no, at the macro level yes, because macro face masking means the virus offense never gets to you.

     You don't need nuclear strategy concepts to get this. When the question came up the right concept was there to use.

[Karl Henning]

     Let me say something that might appear odd. OK, thanks. Some time ago I investigated nuclear strategy as warmongers do. The idea was to get the concepts and see how they cohere and correspond generally. For this purpose a little history was helpful.

     A concept in nuclear strategy is "degrading the offense". Because it's a credible war strategy it's a good deterrent strategy, which is the goal. The idea is that imperfect defenses can be too difficult to overcome, in effect breaking the offensive budget.

     Face masks don't even have to work especially well to be effective

Mask use actually has two different functions. To a degree, it limits the ability of people who are infected to put infectious particles into the environment. And to a potentially different degree, it limits access to two of the primary routes by which those particles can reach new hosts: the mouth and nose. It's not a complete solution, as a person's eyes are still uncovered, and the degree of effectiveness will vary based on how many potentially infectious particles are filtered out. Still, even a crude mask is likely to capture many of the largest particles we produce, and those are the ones that will carry the most viruses.


     Masks degrade the virus offense when you wear them, and more when others do, too. The aggregate effect is to limit virus spread in a way that analysis of individual mask properties won't tell you.

     Aggregate effects are the ball game. Is that bad mask making you safe? At the micro level, no, at the macro level yes, because macro face masking means the virus offense never gets to you.

     You don't need nuclear strategy concepts to get this. When the question came up the right concept was there to use.

On point.

And, of course, the mask that one cannot be bothered to wear is the least effective.

[drogulus]

On point.

And, of course, the mask that one cannot be bothered to wear is the least effective.

     Trump should hold his next rally outdoors and require everyone to wear masks. That way he can be safe from a viral first strike.

[Karl Henning]

As coronavirus infections surge nationwide, 21 states see increase in average daily new cases

[Mandryka]

I see that The Bank of England has mooted the idea of a negative interest rate, and that they'll be printing some money.

Should I be relieved or worried?

[Karl Henning]

As maskless New Yorkers crowd outside bars, Cuomo threatens to shut the city back down

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Well, in fact, similarly to the church I serve, they're streaming the service via Facebook.

Hi Karl,

How was the service stream?  And were any 'regular' congregants allowed there for the actual service or only the minimal to perform the service/music, etc.?

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Hmm, I am living in one of the green areas with very few cases. The risk is of course, that a possible second wave will hit harder (falling upon virgin ground).

I'm glad for you that you're in a green area and hope and pray that that continues to be the case premont!

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

You are not correct that Texas enacted no lockdown nor social distancing. Texas was a bit behind the curve, but there was a substantial lockdown (which is in the process of being lifted) and social distancing remains in effect. Moving from California to Texas, I did not note a substantial difference in the coronavirus response in April. Texas has been more zealous in lifting restrictions. (Of course, this applies to the specific areas I observed.)

Good to hear from you again Baron/Ratliff!  Hope that all is well in Texas and that we continue to hear from you more often again?  I'm behind in reading postings here due to general life busyness.....and trying to keep up with garden.

Stay safe!

PD

[Karl Henning]

Hi Karl,

How was the service stream?  And were any 'regular' congregants allowed there for the actual service or only the minimal to perform the service/music, etc.?

PD

Just the ministers and musicians.  The broadcast on the radio was good sound quality, although I did succeed in recording it.  Thanks for asking, P.D.!

[Karl Henning]

BREAKING: Texas reports another big jump in COVID-19 hospitalizations. New record of 2,518  in the hospital right now with lab confirmed COVID --up 192 from yesterday and up 1,007 since Memorial Day. That is a 67% increase since Memorial Day

[prémont]

I'm glad for you that you're in a green area and hope and pray that that continues to be the case premont!

PD

I was a bit fast, because after about ten days without new cases in my area we have got (during the last two days) 25 corona positive patients at a care home and 3 positive school children at two different schools. 

[Karl Henning]

BREAKING: Florida breaks another daily record number of reported COVID-19 cases for third day in a row with 2,581 new cases.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I was a bit fast, because after about ten days without new cases in my area we have got (during the last two days) 25 corona positive patients at a care home and 3 positive school children at two different schools. 

Sorry to hear that news premonition.     Just to clarify, what do you mean by a care home?

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

BREAKING: Florida breaks another daily record number of reported COVID-19 cases for third day in a row with 2,581 new cases.

Sorry to hear this news, but, sadly, not that surprised due to past activities by various people (crowds).   

PD

[Karl Henning]

Sorry to hear this news, but, sadly, not that surprised due to past activities by various people (crowds).   

PD

No surprise, indeed.

[71 dB]

BREAKING: Florida breaks another daily record number of reported COVID-19 cases for third day in a row with 2,581 new cases.

It looks like it's going to get really ugly in some (red) States, unfortunately.