Author Topic: Coronavirus thread  (Read 43083 times)

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Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #40 on: March 13, 2020, 09:06:47 PM »

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.


At some point very soon the UK the government is going to ask well people in vulnerable groups to « cocoon » themselves - which, as far as I can see, is a sort of voluntary house arrest. They may be asked to do this for many weeks.  It will involve a significant lifestyle change and I’m sure it will be very unpleasant for them.
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Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #41 on: March 13, 2020, 09:10:13 PM »

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications?


The risk of death is increased if you don’t  the proper care if you develop pneumonia. And that’s the problem. There may well be so many people presenting with serious complications of the virus that the health system can’t offer them all the right level of care.

That’s why, I’m the UK, part of the strategy involves ensuring that vulnerable groups do not catch the disease.
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Online André

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #42 on: March 14, 2020, 06:12:51 AM »

The Great TP Run...




Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #43 on: March 14, 2020, 06:33:40 AM »
a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?)

In my own country it's more than 100, which begs the question what's the difference between 99 and 101?  ;D

Quote
Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on?

Precisely and exactly my symptoms during end of Januay/beginning of February. I've had 38/39 C fever for four days in a row; for a whole night I've felt as if I had a razor blade glued to my hroat; I could barely eat anything and I was extremely weak physically for a whole week; I was not even sure if I could drive to the apointment with my oto-rhino-laryngologist (eventually I did, better than expected). I needed a full week of antibiotics in order to get cured and a whole month afterwards to get rid of coughing. This was the worst flu I've ever experienced. Was it Covid-19? Highly unlikely.

I'm not saying the pandemic should be taken lightly, but I'm absolutely convinced that mass panic and hysteria are worse than the virus itself.

« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 06:46:27 AM by Florestan »
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Offline Mirror Image

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #44 on: March 14, 2020, 06:51:57 AM »
The Great TP Run...





;D Haha! So true!
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Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #45 on: March 14, 2020, 07:34:35 AM »
Why is it that the mass media focus almost exclusively on the negatives and they almost never stress the positives?

"The mortality rate is 10 times higher than that of the seasonal flu". True, but given that the latter is 0.1% it follows that the former is 1%, which means that he overwhelming majority of people who got Covid-19 will survive alright.

Related: a flu --- any flu, be it seasonal or Covid-19 --- kills only people with previous and serious medical conditions. A person who has no, or minor medical conditions, will most likely survive the infection.

"There is no known antidote to Covid-19". Which begs the question how did all the people who are now cured of it survived? Either they did nothing at all (in which case their natural immunity was strong enough to annihilate the virus) or they were treated with whatever medication is known as being effective against other types of coronaviruses (in which case we must assume that it work against Covid-19 as well)

Just earlier today on Euronews I've heard a Hong Kong virusologist stating that this damn Covid-19 is a virus sharing many, if not most, of his features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, so the most probable reason for its appearance is natural evolution rather than leak from a laboratory. While not completely excluding the latter hypothesis, I tend to agree with him. So far, so good. Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown. Good grief! (1) If Covid-19 shares many features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, then for my engineer mind it follows logically that its survival time on solid surfaces must be about the same time as that of the others, give or take; (2) in AD 2020 is it that hard to establish how long a virus which people can be tested against survives on solid surfaces?

The same virusologist mentioned above stated that it's wrong to be optimistic about the Covid-19 pandemic subsiding by April due to warming, because in the Southern hemsphere it's going to be colder (coming winter) and the cycle will go on. While this is true in abstract, considering that right now the vast, overwhelming majority of the infections are reported in the Northern hemisphere, the coming summer will most likely subside the Northern hemisphere pandemic. To my engineer mind it's highly unlikely that beyond April or May the Southern hemisphere will experience the same level of emergency as the Northern hemisphere right now.

Last but not least, let's put the whole thing in a philosophical, metaphysical or religious perspective. 100% of those who get Covid-19 will die: a (very) few of them because it will aggravate their preexisting medical conditions, the vast majority of them because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die. 100% of those who will not get Covid-19 will die, because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die.

Carpe diem!

I wish all GMGers and all their loved ones and acquaintances stay safe and healthy!



« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 07:38:45 AM by Florestan »
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Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #46 on: March 14, 2020, 07:35:32 AM »
The effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.

That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.

The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it’s severe, is self reporting. If you‘ve got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that’s probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we’ve had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.

So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

Thread winner so far!
"Melody is the essence of music." --- Mozart

Online k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #47 on: March 14, 2020, 08:04:52 AM »
I think like a lot of these outbreaks, the most important thing is to take personal precautions. In this case, wash your hands regularly (I hope people here and elsewhere do this anyway), practice good hygiene, and always know your surroundings and, more importantly, the people in those surroundings. I think there has been one case reported where I live, but by the way the media makes it sound, you’d think this was the apocalypse. I work in retail and I’ve never seen so many people scrambling to buy toilet paper, hand sanitizers, antibacterial wipes, water, bread, etc. Personally, I’m not going to live my life in fear and I think one of the worst things people can do in this kind of situation is to panic. This only escalates the problem. The perfect scenario would be for people just to stay at home, but this isn’t going to happen.

The vexatious thing about the upshot of the Panic Buying for me is, that as someone relatively housebound while on disability, shopping becomes a little problematic in a way that I consider fsairly unnecessary.  My needs WRT toilet paper and water are not great, but they are greater than zero.

I did manage to find TP at CVS yesterday, and sufficient water at Whole Foods today, so I suffer no unease.  /Bu,r since there was none of either at Stop 'n' Shop yesterday,  I have been fortunate in my foraging choices.
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Offline (: premont :)

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #48 on: March 14, 2020, 08:32:05 AM »
Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown.

Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found https://t.co/8AEaFd230k
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Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #49 on: March 14, 2020, 08:36:21 AM »
Virus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found https://t.co/8AEaFd230k

Thanks, really helpful. Does the study also mention how these data compare to other coronaviruses? I ask because it's really important to put things in perspective (see the "10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu" thing).
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 08:38:53 AM by Florestan »
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Offline (: premont :)

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #50 on: March 14, 2020, 09:17:11 AM »
Thanks, really helpful. Does the study also mention how these data compare to other coronaviruses? I ask because it's really important to put things in perspective (see the "10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu" thing).

The study compares SARS Co-V 1 (the old SARS virus from the epidemic 2002 - 2003) with SARS Co-V-2 (the new SARS virus which causes COVID 19), but there is no comparison with the corona-vira which cause common cold.

The article is just to go to here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf
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Offline GioCar

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #51 on: March 14, 2020, 09:27:32 AM »
This virus is a scoundrel.

It starts slowly, almost unnoticeable.

In Italy we had 3 cases from the end of January, and so they were for almost one months. Big news on the newspapers, all places where they stayed were sanitized, those people were immediately quarantined, but really nobody cared of them. We all thought that what was happening in China couldn't happen to us, to our lives.
Then, from February 21, things started getting bad. Suddenly. Nobody knows really why.
Now they say that, possibly, this virus was already here since a couple of months, but unless you look for it, you never find it. In hospitals they only noticed an unusual larger number of very old people, suffering from other deseases, dying from pneumonia, but you know, in winter that could happen.
So in February 21 they found 17 new cases, the day after the cases were 79, the day after 152, then 229, then 322 and so on...
Full history here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

We immediately quarantined an large area at just 70km from my home. That week most of the people (including myself) used to say what some of you are stll saying: it's just a bit more severe flu, why shut down an entire piece of country, this only creates panic, just relax and follow your normal life.
How wrong we were!

Now we are all quarantined, we have nearly 20 thousands cases (still growing at a 20% daily rate) and more that one thousands deaths. Yes, most (but not all) of them are from old people. You know why? We have almost run out of the intensive care units in hospitals, so the young gets the ventilation, the old with other deseases gets the standard therapy only. Now we all understand very well why in Wuhan they built new hospitals in few days. But we are not in China...

Please, don't be superficial, don't make the same mistakes we made. This virus is a scoundrel. The sooner you shut down everything, the better is for you and your country.




   

Offline ritter

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #52 on: March 14, 2020, 09:46:27 AM »
Caro Gio, it’s good to hear from you, and I hope that you and those dear to you are well. I fully identify with your message, as we in Spain (and particularly in Madrid) are seeing what you describe now unfolding right before our eyes. We are being asked by the authorities to stay in our homes, and only go out to buy food or other essentials. Fortunately, it seems that the vast majority of the population is heeding this advice (belatedly, perhaps, as until only two nights ago people were still going to bars, restaurants and outdoor terraces to have a drink as if nothing were happening). Now the city is deserted (all shops—except food, chemists and some other exceptions—, restaurants, bars, gyms, theatre, museums, everything in fact, are closed for at least two weeks). Fortunately, there is no shortage of foodstuffs in the shops, and the general atmosphere is one of quiet, disciplined resignation. Those who can (like me) work from home, and avoid going out unless absolutely necessary. More stringent measures (complete lockdown?) are expected to be announced later today by the government. To a great extent, we have learned from what has happened in Italy (even if it has taken us probably one week too long to learn the lesson).

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Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #53 on: March 14, 2020, 09:57:34 AM »
Why is it that the mass media focus almost exclusively on the negatives and they almost never stress the positives?

"The mortality rate is 10 times higher than that of the seasonal flu". True, but given that the latter is 0.1% it follows that the former is 1%, which means that he overwhelming majority of people who got Covid-19 will survive alright.

Related: a flu --- any flu, be it seasonal or Covid-19 --- kills only people with previous and serious medical conditions. A person who has no, or minor medical conditions, will most likely survive the infection.

"There is no known antidote to Covid-19". Which begs the question how did all the people who are now cured of it survived? Either they did nothing at all (in which case their natural immunity was strong enough to annihilate the virus) or they were treated with whatever medication is known as being effective against other types of coronaviruses (in which case we must assume that it work against Covid-19 as well)

Just earlier today on Euronews I've heard a Hong Kong virusologist stating that this damn Covid-19 is a virus sharing many, if not most, of his features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, so the most probable reason for its appearance is natural evolution rather than leak from a laboratory. While not completely excluding the latter hypothesis, I tend to agree with him. So far, so good. Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown. Good grief! (1) If Covid-19 shares many features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, then for my engineer mind it follows logically that its survival time on solid surfaces must be about the same time as that of the others, give or take; (2) in AD 2020 is it that hard to establish how long a virus which people can be tested against survives on solid surfaces?

The same virusologist mentioned above stated that it's wrong to be optimistic about the Covid-19 pandemic subsiding by April due to warming, because in the Southern hemsphere it's going to be colder (coming winter) and the cycle will go on. While this is true in abstract, considering that right now the vast, overwhelming majority of the infections are reported in the Northern hemisphere, the coming summer will most likely subside the Northern hemisphere pandemic. To my engineer mind it's highly unlikely that beyond April or May the Southern hemisphere will experience the same level of emergency as the Northern hemisphere right now.

Last but not least, let's put the whole thing in a philosophical, metaphysical or religious perspective. 100% of those who get Covid-19 will die: a (very) few of them because it will aggravate their preexisting medical conditions, the vast majority of them because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die. 100% of those who will not get Covid-19 will die, because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die.

Carpe diem!

I wish all GMGers and all their loved ones and acquaintances stay safe and healthy!

the problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications. This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.
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Online André

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #54 on: March 14, 2020, 10:19:55 AM »
In Belgium, bars and cafés closed to business for 3 weeks as of yesterday night. But not before a last pint !

Belgians understand carpe diem in their own way. Yesterday evening in Brussels, police had to remove revellers from bars well past midnight...



Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #55 on: March 14, 2020, 10:32:21 AM »
the problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications.

Which means there were already a lot of people with serious medical conditions before Covid-19 ever start spreading.

Quote
This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.

The real problem is that the modern man lives in a comfort that a king of yore could have only dreamed of and therefore they think they're immortal, or at least that death is an uncommon ocurrence. But you're very fond of JS Bach, though, so you should be immune to this delusion.
"Melody is the essence of music." --- Mozart

Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #56 on: March 14, 2020, 11:28:03 AM »
In Belgium, bars and cafés closed to business for 3 weeks as of yesterday night. But not before a last pint !

Belgians understand carpe diem in their own way. Yesterday evening in Brussels, police had to remove revellers from bars well past midnight...



Wise guys and chicks, those Belgians! If we're going to die, and we're all going to die, then at least let's die happy and cheerful.  :D

Seriously now, I'm all for obeying strictly the rules and regulations the authorities impose, they are for our own good. But I'm also all against inducing panic and hysteria,

I'm willing to take a bet: past April (May at most) the whole damn thing will be over in Europe.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 11:32:25 AM by Florestan »
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Online k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #57 on: March 14, 2020, 11:28:51 AM »
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
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Offline Archaic Torso of Apollo

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #58 on: March 14, 2020, 11:41:43 AM »
I'm beginning to see little signs of civilizational slippage, i.e. things that indicate people are dealing with an unprecedented crisis. My local library just closed for the duration, and today they sent me an overdue notice, indicating that the items I checked out are overdue. The due date is listed as 1962. This has never happened to me before.

I wondered how large a fine I would have to pay, but their website contained this notice:

"You may have received a message saying that your items are overdue...by about 58 years. Obviously, this is not correct (unless you have invented time travel, in which case: we have some questions). We think that the issue occurred when we were resetting due dates. We've put in a ticket with our tech company."
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Offline Rinaldo

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #59 on: March 14, 2020, 11:44:49 AM »
it's really important to put things in perspective

Yes.