Coronavirus thread

[MusicTurner]

Some good news here; we get the officially calculated R number here in DK every Tuesday, and today it went further down, to 0.7
Identified cases have been around 0.8 - 1.2. % of tests for several weeks, and hospitalizations stable, around 115 - 135.

But there's now a comprehensive, ordinary flu epidemic among very young children, and a warning for a likely increase in both the flu and corona in the autumn. The 90% adult corona vaccination seems to become a fact in late September.

(( Source in Danish https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/dagens-coronatal-overblik-over-smittede-indlagte-og-doede ))

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Some good news here; we get the officially calculated R number here in DK every Tuesday, and today it went further down, to 0.7
Identified cases have been around 0.8 - 1.2. % of tests for several weeks, and hospitalizations stable, around 115 - 135.

But there's now a comprehensive, ordinary flu epidemic among very young children, and a warning for a likely increase in both the flu and corona in the autumn. The 90% adult corona vaccination seems to become a fact in late September.

(( Source in Danish https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/dagens-coronatal-overblik-over-smittede-indlagte-og-doede ))

"Yeah!" regarding your first comment, but the second?  A flu epidemic this time of year and in young kids?! 

PD

[T. D.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-07/israel-s-covid-surge-shows-the-world-what-s-coming-next

[maybe can get around paywall via Google]

As speculated above in the thread:

Since April, Israel has fallen from first to 33rd in Bloomberg's vaccine tracker of populations considered fully vaccinated. The program plateaued amid hesitancy from some in the Orthodox Jewish and Arab communities. About 61% of Israelis have been given two doses, lower than in European laggards earlier in the year such as France and Spain.

Although in the Arab [Palestinian?] community it might not be "hesitancy"...

[MusicTurner]

"Yeah!" regarding your first comment, but the second?  A flu epidemic this time of year and in young kids?! 

PD

Yes, there's a scientific explanation, but I haven't had the energy to get the details. It's not relevant for my immediate surroundings. But it's about the natural flu immunity having gone down due to corona restrictions, and it's now recommended that all children aged 2 - 6 get the flu vaccine, via 2x nose spray. Actually, in the year 2018, flu fatalities and hospitalizations were almost comparable to those of the later corona here.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-07/israel-s-covid-surge-shows-the-world-what-s-coming-next

[maybe can get around paywall via Google]

As speculated above in the thread:

Since April, Israel has fallen from first to 33rd in Bloomberg's vaccine tracker of populations considered fully vaccinated. The program plateaued amid hesitancy from some in the Orthodox Jewish and Arab communities. About 61% of Israelis have been given two doses, lower than in European laggards earlier in the year such as France and Spain.

Although in the Arab [Palestinian?] community it might not be "hesitancy"...

Sorry to hear the bad news re fully vaccinated.  And regarding you final comment:  yup!

Yes, there's a scientific explanation, but I haven't had the energy to get the details. It's not relevant for my immediate surroundings. But it's about the natural flu immunity having gone down due to corona restrictions, and it's now recommended that all children ages 2 - 6 get  the flu vaccine, via 2x nose spray. Actually, in the year 2018, flu fatalities and hospitalizations were almost comparable to those of the later corona here.

Thank you for the further comments:  that makes sense now..less things like common colds too for all age-levels I bet due to less contact and less close contact with others.

PD

[Que]

So, I guess the "let the virus run its course" approach doesn't quite work... Why didn't we think of that before?   

No 10 not ruling out 'firebreak' lockdown if Covid cases rise


Ravi Gupta, a professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge and a member of the Nervtag advisory body, but speaking in a personal capacity, suggested the plans may not go far enough.

"I guess my view is that this situation was entirely predictable and to some extent preventable and many scientists have been ignored," he said.

"A firebreaker of a two-week half-term may help but is unlikely to be long enough to do the job, without additional measures including masking indoors and large gathering limitations," he said. "Vaccinating 12- to 15-year-olds should help curb transmission but we have left it pretty late."

[André]

There are three terms, pandemic, epidemic and endemic. Pandemic and Epidemic both refer to a condition where there is rapid spread of disease and number of new cases rapidly increases, the difference being that epidemic is restricted to one country or region and pandemic spans the globe. Endemic refers to a condition where the outbreak has stabilized, is widespread, but cases are not increasing.

It seems obvious that Covid-19 will become endemic. Hopefully the general proliferation of immunity due to vaccine and previous infections will result in fewer severe cases and deaths. I read that an 1890 pandemic is now thought by some to have been caused by a Coronivirus which is new endemic and generally produces a "common cold."

I don't know how 'endemic' can be applied to Covid. The term refers to a condition (like malaria) that is established and permanent to a region/country/continent, or to species that are found naturally in one place and one place only - like kangaroos in Australia, or edelweiss in mountains of Europe and Asia. By definition, if the coronavirus is spread throughout the world it can't be endemic to a specific area.

[Spotted Horses]

I don't know how 'endemic' can be applied to Covid. The term refers to a condition (like malaria) that is established and permanent to a region/country/continent, or to species that are found naturally in one place and one place only - like kangaroos in Australia, or edelweiss in mountains of Europe and Asia. By definition, if the coronavirus is spread throughout the world it can't be endemic to a specific area.

In epidemiology the word endemic has a specialized meaning. A disease is endemic if transmission remains at a steady state with no external inputs. Often this happens because everyone gets it once, then has immunity to it, regulating transmission.

Some people believe this is the end game for Covid-19.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)

[Mandryka]

So, I guess the "let the virus run its course" approach doesn't quite work... Why didn't we think of that before?   

No 10 not ruling out 'firebreak' lockdown if Covid cases rise


Ravi Gupta, a professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge and a member of the Nervtag advisory body, but speaking in a personal capacity, suggested the plans may not go far enough.

"I guess my view is that this situation was entirely predictable and to some extent preventable and many scientists have been ignored," he said.

"A firebreaker of a two-week half-term may help but is unlikely to be long enough to do the job, without additional measures including masking indoors and large gathering limitations," he said. "Vaccinating 12- to 15-year-olds should help curb transmission but we have left it pretty late."

Is there any evidence from around the world that firebreaks do any good?

[Mandryka]

Some good news here; we get the officially calculated R number here in DK every Tuesday, and today it went further down, to 0.7
Identified cases have been around 0.8 - 1.2. % of tests for several weeks, and hospitalizations stable, around 115 - 135.

But there's now a comprehensive, ordinary flu epidemic among very young children, and a warning for a likely increase in both the flu and corona in the autumn. The 90% adult corona vaccination seems to become a fact in late September.

(( Source in Danish https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/dagens-coronatal-overblik-over-smittede-indlagte-og-doede ))

So am I right to think that schools and the rest of society are open? People can meet freely and they can go to large events? Are there vaccine passports to go to shopping centres or restaurants or football matches or the theatre?

[MusicTurner]

So am I right to think that schools and the rest of society are open? People can meet freely and they can go to large events? Are there vaccine passports to go to shopping centres or restaurants or football matches or the theatre?

Basically almost all restrictions were abolished on the 1st of September. There are no limits to gatherings indoors or outdoors, for example. At discoteques, you'll have to present a corona pass, though. But there are some general recommendations, such as keeping a certain distance etc. In schools children aren't even obliged to stay at home if they've been in contact with an infected person; it's just recommended that they get a test.

[DavidW]

Schools should be the last institution that is closed.

As a teacher I agree.  The covid slide is very real.  Virtual instruction, the lack of community building and lack of hands-on activities makes remote learning a challenge.

[André]

In epidemiology the word endemic has a specialized meaning. A disease is endemic if transmission remains at a steady state with no external inputs. Often this happens because everyone gets it once, then has immunity to it, regulating transmission.

Some people believe this is the end game for Covid-19.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)

Very interesting, I didn't know there was a specific epidemiologic meaning for the term. Thanks for the correction.

From that wiki article:

For an infection that relies on person-to-person transmission, to be endemic, each person who becomes infected with the disease must pass it on to one other person on average. Assuming a completely susceptible population, that means that the basic reproduction number (R0) of the infection must equal one. In a population with some immune individuals, the basic reproduction number multiplied by the proportion of susceptible individuals in the population (S) must be one. This takes account of the probability of each individual to whom the disease may be transmitted being susceptible to it, effectively discounting the immune sector of the population. So, for a disease to be in an endemic steady state it is:
Rº×S=1

In this way, the infection neither dies out nor does the number of infected people increase exponentially but the infection is said to be in an endemic steady state. An infection that starts as an epidemic will eventually either die out (with the possibility of it resurging in a theoretically predictable cyclical manner) or reach the endemic steady state, depending on a number of factors, including the virulence of the disease and its mode of transmission.

[Karl Henning]

As a teacher I agree.  The covid slide is very real.  Virtual instruction, the lack of community building and lack of hands-on activities makes remote learning a challenge.

Verily.

[Mandryka]

Basically almost all restrictions were abolished on the 1st of September. There are no limits to gatherings indoors or outdoors, for example. At discoteques, you'll have to present a corona pass, though. But there are some general recommendations, such as keeping a certain distance etc. In schools children aren't even obliged to stay at home if they've been in contact with an infected person; it's just recommended that they get a test.

That's very positive news then, light at the end of the tunnel - modulo unexpected nasty variants, vaccine wane, vaccine long term side effects . . . and rampant inflation and unemployment.

I think we should all just get drunk now

[Karl Henning]

Coronavirus Updates: Cases in children rise to record levels

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Coronavirus Updates: Cases in children rise to record levels

 

PD

[71 dB]

Apparently there are at least two types of Ivermectin: For horses and for humans. Some doctors recommend the human version for Covid treatment, but there is no reliable evidence for it to work at this point and it seems some doctors are just making money with this "scam". The crazy part is some people are taking the horse version of Ivermectin and that is really dangerous, even deadly!

[Karl Henning]

Apparently there are at least two types of Ivermectin: For horses and for humans. Some doctors recommend the human version for Covid treatment, but there is no reliable evidence for it to work at this point and it seems some doctors are just making money with this "scam". The crazy part is some people are taking the horse version of Ivermectin and that is really dangerous, even deadly!

Given the quality of info for the right-wingers taking Ivermectin, they'd be better off drinking from the toilet.

[MusicTurner]

Yes, there's a scientific explanation, but I haven't had the energy to get the details. It's not relevant for my immediate surroundings. But it's about the natural flu immunity having gone down due to corona restrictions, and it's now recommended that all children aged 2 - 6 get the flu vaccine, via 2x nose spray. Actually, in the year 2018, flu fatalities and hospitalizations were almost comparable to those of the later corona here.

The unusually early and big rise of an RS virus - which is not a corona virus, and has resulted in 700 cases in just a week among small children - is met with concern here, and straining some hospitals. Thankfully, the virus is very rarely fatal, though.

It is also considered a warning of what might come later, as regards other autumnal flu epidemics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_respiratory_syncytial_virus
(source, but in Danish https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-09-09-boerneafdeling-lagt-ned-af-rs-virus-aflyser-operationer-og-hjaelp-til-spaedboern)