Europe at War

[Que]

It seems Russia is now throwing in everything it has. Paratroopers in Kharkiv, Kherson has reportedly been taken, Mariupol could get encircled soon.

Ukraine maps: The battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv (BBC)



The battle for the major cities might be over in a while, but I think (hope) for Putin this will become a Pyrrhic victory.

[Madiel]

Not that anyone cares in particular what I have to say, but in reviewing the evidence for the theory that Putin and the West are operating in one another's mutual interest here, I have to say it's fairly convincing.

For example:
- in 2021 Jens Stoltenberg reiterated an offer for Ukraine to begin its process of accession to NATO, which had already been made at previous NATO summits. The delays in joining NATO were almost entirely due to Ukrainian inaction. They evidently didn't see a need to join the organisation.
- in general, the relevance of NATO has been perceived to be in decline; people in many Western countries openly question the necessity of remaining part of the alliance, and of course, as Trump famously complained, member states do not contribute sufficiently.
- due to this perceived irrelevance of NATO, the Russian-led "counter-bloc" CSTO has also been considered largely irrelevant, and to an even greater degree.
- both the USA and Russia are perceived as declining powers, although Russia more so; it is now perfectly normal for numerous countries to have no formal alliances with, or economic dependence upon, either one

Yet as a result of this war, regardless of the outcome:
- NATO suddenly regains its relevance. An existential threat to the existing order of things is now present, and therefore countries that previously had only a mild interest in joining the alliance or allying with it may now feel pressured into doing so
- CSTO also suddenly regains its relevance. NATO cannot be allowed to dictate world policy, and therefore countries that had previously displayed only mild friendliness towards Russia may now feel pressured into allying with it
- Regardless of whether Russia is victorious or not, high casualty counts and the resulting refugee crisis cement it as being still a military power of great importance, which can maintain a qualitative military edge over its neighbours. Regardless of whether Ukraine is victorious or not, Western countries can cement themselves as also being military powers by proxy (esp those that usually don't participate in wars: Germany, Sweden, etc) through shipping massive amounts of advanced weapons into the country and then claiming either that the Ukrainian victory was due to these weapons, or that the Ukrainian defeat would have been even more severe without these weapons.
- Images of mass destruction of infrastructure and military equipment can be claimed by both sides as proof that their weapons are more effective, seeing as no proof can be satisfactorily obtained indicating which side committed which atrocity.
- The effects of the economic warfare have largely ended up helping Russian, European and American oligarchs in the short term, and probably the long term, as the main result was an increase in oil prices.

But probably most saliently:
- Two weeks ago, the world economy was on the threshold of recession, caused primarily by fiscal policy, along with the continuing effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which various world governments had all collectively decided was "over" and "not worth paying attention to anymore". These causes for recession would normally be guaranteed to turn people against their own governments. Now, since the world's entire attention is focused on the war, once the recession does begin, the Russians will be able to blame America & the EU, and the Americans and Europeans will be able to blame Russia.

I don't imagine Putin, Biden and Stoltenberg were hanging out in a smoke-filled room making a deal to arrange a war for economic and political purposes. I imagine Putin (or more likely whatever set of advisors and government officials are truly responsible for this) planned out a complicated version of what has, for some reason, been named the Batman Gambit. Everything here was planned on the assumption that NATO (et al.) wanted war in Ukraine for various reasons, and would decide that the economic and political advantages were worth sacrificing millions of Ukrainians, and that assumption has been correct so far.

If this seems completely irrational, note that Putin's approval rating in Russia has shot up by at least ten percentage points relative to before the war. I expect European leaders will see similar increases. General Smedley Butler had a similar hypothesis about a century ago.

Am I entirely convinced? Not sure. I don't know nearly enough about the economic side of things, whether a recession really was inevitable etc. But it's notable that if this is accurate, the failure condition for Putin, Biden and Stoltenberg (and most of the various other world leaders involved in this) is an immediate ceasefire and a political solution to the conflict that doesn't require any NATO involvement, and that's what has felt like the best possible outcome from the beginning.

While there might be forms of economic benefit to the west, I query what economic benefits there are to Russia out of this. Economic sanctions are likely to bite. I've already seen a report that inflation is going up in Russia, and both access to funds and purchasing power of funds are going to be significant issues for them.

Putin's popularity might well go up in the very short term, but if the economic impact of sanctions on daily life is bad enough his popularity could well take a hit in the longer term.

[vandermolen]

It seems Russia is now throwing in everything it has. Paratroopers in Kharkiv, Kherson has reportedly been taken, Mariupol could get encircled soon.

Ukraine maps: The battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv (BBC)



The battle for the major cities might be over in a while, but I think (hope) for Putin this will become a Pyrrhic victory.

+1

[Florestan]

I have to disagree vehemently with that.

I'm very curious where you get these theories from?

Why do you even bother with amw's balderdash? Over the years, she has been an apologist for Lenin and Stalin (going so far as to deny the Gulag), for Maoist China (going so far as to deny the atrocities of the Great Leap Forward) and for Hamas.

[vandermolen]

"We stand united with Ukraine!"

+1

[MusicTurner]

There's a presidency 'election' planned in RU in March 2024 ...

[LKB]

There's a presidency 'election' planned in RU in March 2024 ...

Here's what the ballot will look like:

Putin
Putin
Putin
Putin*

*if he still lives

[71 dB]

I have suffered massive anxiety because of this conflict. Since this doesn't seem to end soon I need to address my fears and try to control them better.

- I will follow less media about this war
- I will concentrate on my hobbies (music, music, music!)
- I will do breathing exercises
- Walks around the neighbourhood

Apparently some people can control their fears by following the media more, gathering more information, but for some other people it is the opposite. I seem to belong to the latter group of people. Because of my INTJ/P personality type my brain analysis the information generating meaning "between the lines" and in this situation it means intuitive horror scenarious my inferior feeling can't control properly. So, less media following for me!

[MusicTurner]

Here's what the ballot will look like:

Putin
Putin
Putin
Putin*

*if he still lives

The interesting question is, whether the mythology he has built up around himself will still hold, or not.

Generally, Kamil Galeev writes brilliantly, but biased (and with a bit of grammatical exoticism added). Also, some of his views are very debatable.
Overview of his threads: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711

But he thinks this will be the end of the Putin myth - and even, that Russia will lose the war, because of the set of false initial assumptions, that is accompanying it:
Analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

"Putin initially built his reputation and popularity through a Special Operations disguised as a small victorious war. He repeated this little trick every time his image waned. In Ukraine he just scaled up, mistakenly":
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1496711906412933121

[relm1]

Here's what the ballot will look like:

Putin
Putin
Putin
Putin*

*if he still lives

Putin
Someone else <- dies mysteriously
Someone else <- missing
Someone else <- ballots thrown out

[MusicTurner]

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1497938457280360452

[milk]

The interesting question is, whether the mythology he has built up around himself will still hold, or not.

Generally, Kamil Galeev writes brilliantly, but biased (and with a bit of grammatical exoticism added). Also, some of his views are very debatable.
Overview of his threads: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711

But he thinks this will be the end of the Putin myth - and even, that Russia will lose the war, because of the set of false initial assumptions, that are accompanying it: Analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

"Putin initially built his reputation and popularity through a Special Operations disguised as a small victorious war. He repeated this little trick every time his image waned. In Ukraine he just scaled up, mistakenly":
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1496711906412933121

What is the winning situation for Putin? He is hated - more than ever. He has united people against him. He's provoked ire which has big economic repercussions for Russia and the oligarchs. Even if he succeeds militarily, he's already given his own competence and military a black eye. Plus, how can he hold onto the Ukraine over the long haul even if he does make up the lost ground and succeed? what will be the cost? There are many questions. Like, is he willing to kill scores of people to make up for the incompetence that's been displayed so far?
It's only been a few days but Putin seems to have weakened himself. Trump is the only one who thinks he's a genius. It's a side issue, but will this be a further nail in trum's proverbial coffin as well?

[Spotted Horses]

A disaster for Putin, a worse disaster for Ukraine.

Putin obviously expected it to be a cakewalk, Crimea part II. He expected Ukraine's military to capitulate; he issued a statement encouraging the Ukraine military to remove the government, allowing for a peaceful reintegration with Russia. A Russian government web site accidentally published a statement dated two days after the invasion started announcing the brilliant success of the operation. He didn't expect this. The gas pipeline to Germany, already built, is not dead. The collapse in the value of the Ruble will hurt ordinary Russians and may chip away at his vaunted popularity.  But damage to Russia doesn't make the damage to Ukraine any easier to bear.

[Spotted Horses]

I find myself thinking of the plight or ordinary Ukrainians, rather than the doings of political leaders. I remember reading a novel called Suite Francaise, by Irene Nemirovsky, which describes the panicked evacuation of Paris by civilians in the face of the Nazi invasion. I recall scenes of country roads choked with broken-down cars and people carrying what they had left of their possessions as they trudged on. The manuscript was found decades later by her descendants, written in minute script in a notebook. Nemirovsky died in a concentration camp.

[Florestan]

Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too

[Florestan]

Putin is a scelerate but how do you call the Moscow policemen who arrested children?

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/02/moscow-police-detain-children-holding-anti-war-placard-a76711

[amw]

It seems Russia is now throwing in everything it has. Paratroopers in Kharkiv, Kherson has reportedly been taken, Mariupol could get encircled soon.

Ukraine maps: The battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv (BBC)



The battle for the major cities might be over in a while, but I think (hope) for Putin this will become a Pyrrhic victory.

I have seen a lot of similar maps and they tend to gloss over the meaning of "Russian control", and operate under the assumption that Russia plans to occupy Ukraine for a long period of time and is therefore taking control of every settlement in a particular area/driving out Ukrainian military units completely. That doesn't seem to be true. Russia may appear to have "taken" a lot of territory but it's been mostly moving columns down highways and attacking specific targets, rather than establishing zones of control in the traditional sense; there are reportedly still Ukrainian military/paramilitary units behind the "front line" and a number of major cities and towns have been completely bypassed. (For example, the area Western media considers "under Russian control" has covered the Enerhodar nuclear power plant near Zaporizhia for several days now, but Russian media has been reporting that Russian forces seized the power plant on at least three separate occasions. It's very likely still under Ukrainian control.) Russia's control over the shaded area (except for Crimea and the DPR/LPR) is therefore more or less illusory, and would probably collapse in the face of any serious united opposition.

Russia's position in the north in particular is weaker than it looks. We'll see what happens with the negotiations planned for today, but I suspect this is the last time they'll do so while Russia still maintains a significant military advantage.

While there might be forms of economic benefit to the west, I query what economic benefits there are to Russia out of this. Economic sanctions are likely to bite. I've already seen a report that inflation is going up in Russia, and both access to funds and purchasing power of funds are going to be significant issues for them.

Putin's popularity might well go up in the very short term, but if the economic impact of sanctions on daily life is bad enough his popularity could well take a hit in the longer term.

I don't know enough about the economic side to determine whether any of what I wrote is accurate, obviously. Natural gas is above $2000 now as a result of the sanctions, and perhaps for Russian energy companies that will offset the inflation; economic cooperation with Pakistan and China also seems to have increased. But whether these things will truly provide short- or long-term benefit outweighing the effects of sanctions, I don't know.

I think Putin's popularity probably starts to drop as soon as the war is over and Russians, now divorced from patriotic fervour, remember that they still have a coronavirus crisis, an economic crisis (which the war may have made worse), etc. For that reason he probably wants to continue the war for as long as possible.

Why do you even bother with amw's balderdash? Over the years, she has been an apologist for Lenin and Stalin (going so far as to deny the Gulag), for Maoist China (going so far as to deny the atrocities of the Great Leap Forward) and for Hamas.

Yes, anyone who disagrees with you politically does not deserve to live, point taken.

[Florestan]

Yes, anyone who disagrees with you politically does not deserve to live, point taken.

More balderdash.

[Karl Henning]

Russia Must Lose

[Florestan]

Russia Must Lose

Yes.