Europe at War

[Que]

The problem with a Russian victory is that it will show the world that unless you have nuclear weapons or are a member of NATO, you are fair game. Note that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for Russian guarantees of its territorial integrity. Now we all know what those were worth...

Govts of some countries in Europe and many more in South-East Asia are going to be very concerned.

[Mandryka]

The problem with a Russian victory is that it will show the world that unless you . . .  are a member of NATO, you are fair game.

Hmmmm

[steve ridgway]

Well, I think if NATO ever gets into a shooting war with Russia, none of us will need to have learnt any lessons. To paraphrase Stanley Baldwin, the nuclear bombs will always get through...

It would have to be purely defensive, no way could NATO troops move into Russian territory. At least the iron curtain has moved considerably to the east.

[Que]

G7 nations draw up plans to impose heavy tariffs on Russia

I'm wondering if "heavy tariffs" will be good enough...
When (and not: if) Russia deploys chemical and biological weapons and nationalises Western assets, only a full and total trade ban will do.

Western allies don't need to declare war on Russia, it has been waging war against them for a long time.
As I suggested in the title of the thread, Europe is already at war... with Russia.

[Que]

Hmmmm

Well yes, even that might be debatable....depending on how this develops.

Will the US go to war with Russia over Latvia?   

[steve ridgway]

Will the US go to war with Russia over Latvia? 

I think they'd have to defend Latvia although with the clearly stated aim of stopping once the Russian invading forces had been pushed back over the border. Otherwise what would be the point of anyone else being in NATO?

[MusicTurner]

(...)

Will the US go to war with Russia over Latvia? 

Yes.

[relm1]

I thought this collection of Russians reacting to the news was interesting.  Wide range of thoughts from outrage to complete support of Putin.  It's tough when an authoritarian regime controls the media and outlaws any free press.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kELta9MLOzg

[Que]

I think they'd have to defend Latvia although with the clearly stated aim of stopping once the Russian invading forces had been pushed back over the border. Otherwise what would be the point of anyone else being in NATO?

Yes.

Agreed, I think so too.

Although if Trump would get reelected, I would be less certain - and so would Putin.

[Spotted Horses]

It is impossible to describe how dispiriting this is. Putin's plan was that the Ukrainian military would capitulate, and since the Russian military has failed to defeat the Ukrainian military they have resorted to terrorism, targeting civilians to try to demoralize the military. I don't want to think about how this will end.

[MusicTurner]

Agreed, I think so too.

Although if Trump would get reelected, I would be less certain - and so would Putin.

Probably. I haven't followed Trump's popularity in the US in recent weeks, but apparently he is behaving as usual, with weird public statements, and he is experiencing some legal setbacks - yet seemingly, they don't materialize in any serious, final verdicts against him. As usual. Also, GOP opposition to him has maybe-maybe been strengthened a bit ...

In Russia, the FSB officers responsible for evaluating the situation in Ukraine, in relation to the invasion plans, have apparently been placed under house arrests. Their work was unsatisfying, to say the least.

Lavrov's luxury lifestyle:
https://twitter.com/pevchikh
https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3n8je/russia-polina-kovaleva-lifestyle

[drogulus]

     

Well yes, even that might be debatable....depending on how this develops.

Will the US go to war with Russia over Latvia?   

     An invasion of Latvia would be a strong signal to neighboring states that they are at war. It would be accompanied by other signals and there would be no doubt concerning their meaning.

     You could try to run a thought experiment where Russia attacks Latvia for some reason unrelated to ones we know. What would be the point of that?

     

     

[Todd]

Note that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for Russian garantuees of its territorial integrity. Now we all know what those were worth...

And The West agreed to not expand NATO.  Duplicity is standard behavior in international relations.

G7 nations draw up plans to impose heavy tariffs on Russia

I'm wondering if "heavy tariffs" will be good enough...

The more important part of this action is that it represents a willingness to revert to old school mercantilism quickly, something that will not be lost on Asian powers observing this situation.  With the WTO already significantly hobbled before this war began, and economic siege warfare now a policy tool, the post-war "free trade" system is eroding at an accelerating pace. 

Yes.

Blinken say yes.  I would not bet the farm on that.

[Que]

The more important part of this action is that it represents a willingness to revert to old school mercantilism quickly, something that will not be lost on Asian powers observing this situation.  With the WTO already significantly hobbled before this war began, and economic siege warfare now a policy tool, the post-war "free trade" system is eroding at an accelerating pace. 

Well, yes. I guess we're realising that we run the risk of supporting our own downfall by sharing our financial and intellectual resources with parties that do not share our values.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

It is impossible to describe how dispiriting this is. Putin's plan was that the Ukrainian military would capitulate, and since the Russian military has failed to defeat the Ukrainian military they have resorted to terrorism, targeting civilians to try to demoralize the military. I don't want to think about how this will end.

I'm no kind of military expert, but I've been thinking about a few things.

People are saying that if Russia can't win a quick victory, they will simply destroy cities, the way they destroyed Grozny (Chechnya). First, Kiev is something like 8-10 times larger than Grozny. I don't know if it's even possible to "scale up" like that.

Second, cities like Kiev and Odessa have an iconic status in Russian culture. Kiev in particular is a sacred city to Slavic Orthodox people; it's "the Mother of Rus Cities." It's like Rome is for Catholics. Bombarding these cities into smithereens would have an immeasurable traumatic impact on huge numbers of people.

Napoleon said that in war "the moral is to the physical as ten is to one." I'm getting reports (which I can't confirm, granted) that a lot of the Russian soldiers are confused and dismayed about being put in this position. They were lied to, or kept in the dark until the crucial moment. Assuming this is true, how long can the situation last?

Meanwhile (based on other unconfirmed reports I'm getting) Putin has already destroyed or neutralized whatever pro-Russian forces still existed in Ukraine. Such sentiment used to be widespread. Back around 2009 I saw polls indicating that the most popular politician in Ukraine was ... Putin! This was probably more an expression of frustration with their own leaders at the time, but still, things were different. Now, Putin is turning previously moderate Central Ukrainians into Galician nationalists.

[Que]

This looks desperate...

"Vladimir Putin has said Russia must welcome volunteers who want to fight Ukrainian forces and help them to get to combat areas"

Now Putin looks even more desperate...

Syria recruiting troops from its military to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine

[Todd]

Well, yes. I guess we're realising that we run the risk of supporting our own downfall by sharing our financial and intellectual resources with parties that do not share our values.

Trump was right-ish.  "America First" - aka, economic nationalism - is the, or at least a major part of a, practical path forward.  Fortunately or unfortunately, take your pick.  I suppose it will be very hard for people to accept that Trump stated anything with any truth to it, though they can take solace in the fact that he was not the first and only person to do so.  For instance, from the very un-Trumpian Larry Summers: Voters deserve responsible nationalism not reflex globalism  (It is a weathervane piece, to be sure.)  Of course, Summers' even more formidable uncle criticized free trade even earlier, if that helps.  Various groups have criticized free trade since forever.

Now Putin looks even more desperate...

Mercenaries have been used for millennia.  The US at least has the good sense to outsource to more wholesomely named Private Military Contractors.

[MusicTurner]

I'm no kind of military expert, but I've been thinking about a few things.

(...)

Second, cities like Kiev and Odessa have an iconic status in Russian culture. Kiev in particular is a sacred city to Slavic Orthodox people; it's "the Mother of Rus Cities." It's like Rome is for Catholics. Bombarding these cities into smithereens would have an immeasurable traumatic impact on huge numbers of people.

(...)

True. Also, Lviv, though with a more mixed background, mainly Polish and much less Russian, is culturally and architecturally of major importance. There's a vast historical centre, and it would a gigantic loss, if bombings take place. Locals have now started to protect the art treasures and outdoor sculptures with various covers etc. Btw it has a rich classical music tradition, like Odessa.

[Todd]

Something to look forward to?

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says Russia's attack could be the start of a multiyear 'Super Cold War' — and explains how that isn't doom for stock markets

Grantham noted that wars can set in process a lot of capital expenditure and drive the development of new products — "a lot of war profiteering, if you will."

"So it isn't necessarily doom for the stock market. It's a miserable time for everybody else, but then in wartime, people do work harder and produce more."

That can have a follow-on boost for the economies of the countries involved in combat, the veteran investor suggested.

"World War II really pumped up the US, in particular for the next 20 years," he said.

[drogulus]

     Part of the point of collective defense, though only part, is that aggressors are disinclined to bet their own farms.

     Small states have limited choices, but I would suggest that large states operate within constraints that are rational. To what extent do "expendable" buffer states prevent major war, and what happens when the distance between Russia and NATO is closed from the east? I feel like we've been here before.