Europe at War

[greg]

Uncommon or not, this type of brutality we see in Ukraine should not happen anywhere. By now mankind should have learned from history, but it never learns so here we are. This is a planet of greedy assholes in power causing insane suffering to millions of innocent people. I have been naive, but I have finally realised what an ugly stupid planet this is. So undeveloped morally despite of (because of?) all technological achievements... 

This is entirely due to
1) psychopathy being a recurring genetic condition that humanity is unable to get rid of
2) psychopaths using fear to control others, and inability to be controlled since they lack fear themselves
3) people unwilling to challenge them and submitting to their fear, thus giving up their own power

(Putin being the example in this case)

This pattern will continue until the end of humanity. We can learn about history as much as we want, but it will never end unless we can detect them and know how to deal with them.

[BasilValentine]

And that applies to the case of the cosmonauts how?

It shows that Russian citizens are now routinely detained or arrested for protests far more tame and less public than what the cosmonauts did. The implication is that having to ask about the heavy consequences a cosmonaut might suffer for such a public protest is either stupid or disingenuous (trolling).

[Todd]

It shows that Russian citizens are now routinely detained or arrested for protests far more tame and less public than what the cosmonauts did. The implication is that having to ask about the heavy consequences a cosmonaut might suffer for such a public protest is either stupid or disingenuous (trolling).

So, again, you do not know what will happen.  You only imagine you do.

[LKB]

So, you do not know.

No, l do not know. If l knew, it would likely mean that l was working with Roscosmos, something which is ( thankfully ) not the case.

But l do know that my given examples are neither implausible nor unreasonable. The offering of such relevant possibilities in the course of a conversation is what most adults refer to as, " normal ".

[Todd]

No, l do not know. If l knew, it would likely mean that l was working with Roscosmos, something which is ( thankfully ) not the case.

But l do know that my given examples are neither implausible nor unreasonable. The offering of such relevant possibilities in the course of a conversation is what most adults refer to as, " normal ".

Offering relevant possibilities is rather different than bold declarations of paying heavy prices.  Maybe the cosmonauts pay a heavy price, maybe they do not.  I imagine a range of outcomes is possible.

[drogulus]

     The significance of the Cosmonauts is that dissent is broadly based. The cumulative case is that educated Russians in urban centers see their future being stolen from them.

     Are these guys military?

[LKB]

Offering relevant possibilities is rather different than bold declarations of paying heavy prices.  Maybe the cosmonauts pay a heavy price, maybe they do not.  I imagine a range of outcomes is possible.

In ignoring my qualifiers, you're a) being disingenuous and b) amplifying your own trollish reputation. Either way l remain unaffected, so feel free to carry on.

[Todd]

Either way l remain unaffected, so feel free to carry on.

Admirable equanimity. 

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

Zelensky frequently states that he wants to meet Putin and negotiate for an immediate end to the war. He keeps saying it over and over. This makes me think that Zelensky may not be interested in any compromise actually and preparing for a long-term, guerrilla warfare. Just a thought.

[drogulus]

Zelensky frequently states that he wants to meet Putin and negotiate for an immediate end to the war. He keeps saying it over and over. This makes me think that Zelensky may not be interested in any compromise actually and preparing for a long-term, guerrilla warfare. Just a thought.

      It's not a lack of interest, it's realism. Zelensky must say what he says, and do what he does. Ukraine can't accept what Russia will offer until Russia is willing to accept defeat.

[Que]

Ukraine can't accept what Russia will offer until Russia is willing to accept defeat.

I agree. Now Putin hasn't been able to achieve his goals on the battle field, he wants them handed down on a silver platter at the negotiating table.

[MusicTurner]

A part of the story is though that the Russian wars tend to start with defeats, but then their army quantity takes over. If the will is there, that is.

Some think that the logistics problem will result in the Russians running completely short of essential stuff within 2-6 weeks though. For example, their trucks seem to have had no maintenance or professional staff, so they basically fail and are then being left. And they can only go on roads, because they are fragile - and then they are 'sitting ducks'. Meaning that delivery of provisions will stop.

Specialized threads on their truck logistics
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1505370275273183239
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944

[MusicTurner]

     It would be good to fight elsewhere than the US. I'd pay a lot for that. The question is, are we paying really a lot for value received? In my estimation the answer is no. The proportion of GDP for military expenditure isn't very high.

     

     I would spend more to acquire more advanced planes and missiles. Chinese missiles are pretty good and we need something to handle Chinese SAMs. That way we might not have to use the less good ones we have now.

Drones are the future. Bayraktar, the Turkish company that sold drones to Ukraine and 15 other countries, have just announced that they are working on complete fighter planes without pilots, with a weight of 5 tonnes, a speed of 800 km/h, the first flights taking place next year. It's being planned that their aircraft carrier will have 80 of them, and that their F-35 order might be cancelled somehow, because of this.

(in German: https://www.golem.de/news/auf-dem-weg-zur-seemacht-tuerkei-will-neuen-flugzeugtraeger-mit-drohnen-ausruesten-2203-163973.html

[Florestan]

Although many people --- I'm not talking about anyone here --- probably believe that the thousands arrested in Russia for protesting againts the war and the regime are rotting in sinister dungeons, the truth is they are released a few hours after, or the next day. And honestly, the videos show that the Russian police generally acts with less brutality than the Western police forces which acted against anti-restriction protesters last autumn by setting dogs on them and beating them until they dropped in the streets.

Go ahead, call me a Putinist. 

[MusicTurner]

One aspect is - I don't see any violence attempts among the Russian protesters. And the fees are big, for Russian incomes. Plus you risk your job, or your studying.

[Herman]

I agree. Now Putin hasn't been able to achieve his goals on the battle field, he wants them handed down on a silver platter at the negotiating table.

I doubt this is a scenario. Also because Uke isn't going to accept defeat either.
This negotiating is just a side show.
The Aleppo / Grozny secenario is more likely.
Pute's going to pound the cities to rubble. He'll announce victory as the last man standing.

[Herman]

Nor am I sure he would balk at a nuclear confrontation.

Just eliminate all the little guys and start all over.

It's an idea that has been buzzing around for a couple of years already.

[greg]

Although many people --- I'm not talking about anyone here --- probably believe that the thousands arrested in Russia for protesting againts the war and the regime are rotting in sinister dungeons, the truth is they are released a few hours after, or the next day. And honestly, the videos show that the Russian police generally acts with less brutality than the Western police forces which acted against anti-restriction protesters last autumn by setting dogs on them and beating them until they dropped in the streets.

Go ahead, call me a Putinist. 

That's good to hear.
I also hear that there's many Russians leaving to places like Georgia, due to stuff like this, and for the most part, due to sanctions.
So it seems like they can be considered refugees- seems odd that in this case there would be refugees from a country which is being an aggressor in a war. I haven't heard about that scenario before, but I'm no war expert, perhaps that has happened many times before, just not with wars I'm familiar with.

[MusicTurner]

Being politically persecuted is one of the critetia for refugee status, but normally you'll have to verify circumstances for it.

Perhaps some of those going to Georgia have social networks and expect to just mingle in. Obviously, there are also strong anti-Russian/Putin feelings in Georgia.

[Florestan]

One aspect is - I don't see any violence attempts among the Russian protesters. And the fees are big, for Russian incomes. Plus you risk your job, or your studying.

I'm not saying it's okay, just that arresting / brutalizing / fining people for being in manifest disagreement with government's policies is not exclusive to Russia, which is a dictatorship. Western democracies practice it as well.