The New York Philharmonic to play in North Korea!

[MishaK]

     I didn't mean I wanted a violent change. That's what I think will happen. Most likely a coup will be followed by a Somalia type disintegration. The nature of the regime is what determines what can follow it, so the case is quite different from anything in Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan, because North Korea is so extreme. It's more like Jonestown than a country.

I disagree. The extremeness is rather played up in the Western press. But looking at it objectively, it is not all that different from the Soviet Union or some of its satellites. And many of those developed in vastly different directions despite being previously under the same regime (compare e.g. Ukraine vs. Belarus or, on the extreme end, Turkmenistan). There is nothing nearly as deterministic about the existing regime that predetermines what follows. Political scientists and sociologists wish it were that easy. No, things can go many ways. What has much more of an influence on the next regime is how the change is brought about, whether it's peaceful or violent, how the cadres and security archives of the old regime are dealt with, etc. The difference here also is that Korea is a divided country with a much wealthier democratic southern half. If NK disintegrates, SK will be under pressure to absorb it. If NK disintegrates violently, the economic and social costs of incorporating a devastated North could be so severe as to economically cripple SK for decades. South Korean politicians watched what happened when West Germany incorporated the GDR in 1990. They saw the costs Germany, one of the world's wealthiest economies, suffered when incorporating the, by Warsaw Pact standards, relatively economically stable GDR. They know that for SK to incorporate NK in its current state would be a disaster. That logic is behind the Sunshine policy: to gradually open up NK, raise living standards and produce a gradual long term change that could lead to unification in the long term. But please nothing radical overnight.

[greg]

It is also worth mentioning that in every documentary you see on National Geographic or Discovery Channel or BBC or w/e about NK, the citizens are "actors". That is to say that they are chosen and trained by the govt to meet and give interviews etc to the media from the outside world, because the govt creates their image by those "citizens". Everything you see and do in NK is closely monitored by government workers (who are supposed to be merely "tour guides") so that you won't see things the govt doesn't want to show the world. So basically every person you see on the street is an "actor"...

that's interesting, didn't know or think about that.

North Korea is a surrealistic place....no, more like a Monty Python sketch.

exactly my impressions of what I've seen on TV.....

or more like a Disney World (or United Kingdom) from hell.

[bhodges]

Just found out via this post on Steve Smith's website that he's going to be traveling with the orchestra to cover the concert.  I admire his writing a great deal--both for The New York Times and Time Out New York--so I'm glad he was tapped for this. 

--Bruce

[greg]

for anyone who wants to make a trip to the "Hermit Kingdom":

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.travel-earth.com/dprk/sinuiju-kim-il-sung.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.travel-earth.com/dprk/&h=768&w=1024&sz=111&hl=en&start=75&um=1&tbnid=LsizEt6Edug0tM:&tbnh=113&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dnorth%2Bkorea%26start%3D60%26ndsp%3D20%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26sa%3DN

[MishaK]

Actually, this is a great book on the subject, also with some very interesting pictures taken by the author:

[greg]

Actually, this is a great book on the subject, also with some very interesting pictures taken by the author:

well, it's got some good reviews on amazon!

[drogulus]

I disagree. The extremeness is rather played up in the Western press. But looking at it objectively, it is not all that different from the Soviet Union or some of its satellites. And many of those developed in vastly different directions despite being previously under the same regime (compare e.g. Ukraine vs. Belarus or, on the extreme end, Turkmenistan). There is nothing nearly as deterministic about the existing regime that predetermines what follows. Political scientists and sociologists wish it were that easy. No, things can go many ways. What has much more of an influence on the next regime is how the change is brought about, whether it's peaceful or violent, how the cadres and security archives of the old regime are dealt with, etc. The difference here also is that Korea is a divided country with a much wealthier democratic southern half. If NK disintegrates, SK will be under pressure to absorb it. If NK disintegrates violently, the economic and social costs of incorporating a devastated North could be so severe as to economically cripple SK for decades. South Korean politicians watched what happened when West Germany incorporated the GDR in 1990. They saw the costs Germany, one of the world's wealthiest economies, suffered when incorporating the, by Warsaw Pact standards, relatively economically stable GDR. They know that for SK to incorporate NK in its current state would be a disaster. That logic is behind the Sunshine policy: to gradually open up NK, raise living standards and produce a gradual long term change that could lead to unification in the long term. But please nothing radical overnight.

      I'm not convinced the German precedent is the right one here. The terrible conditions make it less likely that a nonviolent transition can be made. That's not determinism, it's just reading the situation as it is. The Western press is not wrong about NK. Anyone who knows the regime will tell you what it's like.

      If the Western press is exaggerating the NK situation, who is giving the correct assesssment?

[MishaK]

      I'm not convinced the German precedent is the right one here. The terrible conditions make it less likely that a nonviolent transition can be made. That's not determinism, it's just reading the situation as it is. The Western press is not wrong about NK. Anyone who knows the regime will tell you what it's like.

      If the Western press is exagerrating the NK situation, who is giving the correct assesssment?

The German situation is only the precedent for the inevitable incorporation of NK into SK, and served as the case study for the South koreans who are worried about the costs of absorbing the North and therefore want to gradually transfor North korea before reunification, rather than having to deal with a sudden collapse. No, for a precedent for non-violent transition from poverty look at Albania in the 1990s. It was nearly as poor and isolated under Enver Hodxha as NK. There is nothing iherent in poverty that would necessitate the transition to be violent.

The western press, collectively, is too borad of a term term to be wrong of course. There are those who know what they are talking about. Bradley Martin, whose book is the best and most detailed on the subject that I know, is a member of the same Western press (having worked for Baltimore Sun and WSJ, I think). He has also travelled to NK multiple times. However, most reports in the press like to portray Kim as a total lunatic crazy. That is just a pretext for calling negotiations with the regime pointless and pushing for isolation and military action. It has little basis in reality, which is that he's a rather ordinary run-of-the-mill dictator who won't give up his grip on power.

[drogulus]

     Both Clinton and Bush have acted as though military action is to be avoided at nearly all costs. I think that NK war threats are likely just extortion demands, a high stakes bluff. But it's still a dangerous situation.

[Ephemerid]

Both Clinton and Bush have acted as though military action is to be avoided at nearly all costs.

*cough cough* no oil *cough*

[MishaK]

*cough cough* no oil *cough*

Yeah, but in all fairness, Iraq doesn't border on China and the Iraqi border wasn't a few dozen miles from one of Asia's largest population centers. The strategic situation is somewhat different.

[drogulus]

*cough cough* no oil *cough*

     Ah, I get it. The presence of a strong material interest should be a disincentive to intervene!  We should only protect the sea lanes where no ships are sailing. That way there would be no danger that we'd be acting in favor of a material interest.

     Also, you're wrong. South Korea is one of the biggest chunks of material interest on the planet. If you don't think that's a factor in our policy, you haven't thought about it enough.

     

Yeah, but in all fairness, Iraq doesn't border on China and the Iraqi border wasn't a few dozen miles from one of Asia's largest population centers. The strategic situation is somewhat different.

     These are important factors.

[PerfectWagnerite]

I guess you get to hear the concert Tuesday night if you are in the US. I don't have a problem with them going. But if I were a member of the orchestra I would have trouble swallowing that fillet mignon and smoked salmon when I know not far from me many citizens of PyongYang are borderline on starving.

[bhodges]

Steve Smith has just put up his first post on the Time Out New York blog, via his website here.

--Bruce

[bhodges]

Some more good blog posts...an interesting one on Feast of Music by Pete Matthews, who caught the PBS webcast early this morning, and another one from Steve Smith.

--Bruce

[greg]

Some more good blog posts...an interesting one on Feast of Music by Pete Matthews, who caught the PBS webcast early this morning, and another one from Steve Smith.

--Bruce

thanks for these!


also from here:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6534647.html

it says:

then go wide with the show on PBS Feb. 28 at 9 p.m. (WNET is one of PBS' chief programming partners).

surprisingly, i'm off at that time! 
So I could just turn on the TV and watch it? 

[bhodges]

it says:surprisingly, i'm off at that time! 
So I could just turn on the TV and watch it? 

Yep, that's right!  If I weren't going to Carnegie Hall tonight I'd be watching, too, but I'll have to catch it on the rebound.

--Bruce

[MishaK]

Yep, that's right!  If I weren't going to Carnegie Hall tonight I'd be watching, too, but I'll have to catch it on the rebound.

--Bruce

Enjoy. What's the program tonight? The Stravinsky or the Debussy?

[bhodges]

Enjoy. What's the program tonight? The Stravinsky or the Debussy?

Petrouchka!  Images was last night...fantastic [with Boulez and the CSO].

--Bruce

[greg]

Petrouchka!  Images was last night...fantastic [with Boulez and the CSO].

--Bruce

you're a lucky man!