Russian attacks over Georgia

[ezodisy]

An article on Bloomberg this morning regarding the use of public relations during the recent conflict. Not sure how revealing it is but I do find it amusing that both countries recently used US PR firms for their causes (last section below).

Why Alexei Pankin Frets Over `Inept' Selling of Putin's War

By Patrick Donahue

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Russia won the military war against Georgia hours after it started. Alexei Pankin, a columnist who writes for the state-run newswire RIA Novosti, said leaders in Moscow just as quickly bungled another war.

The Russian public believes the government was ineffective in trying to convince the world that the invasion was justified, said Pankin, a media analyst who also writes for the Moscow Times and blames the conflict on Georgia.

``Russian PR was inept,'' he said by phone from Moscow.

As Russia poured weapons and troops into Georgia this month, officials in Tbilisi launched a public-relations campaign over Western airwaves and the Internet. Moscow is just now trying to catch up.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, 40, has logged in five hours of air time in 20 appearances on CNN, the BBC, Sky News, Bloomberg News and other outlets since the war with Russia began on Aug. 8. Georgia's public-relations firm, Aspect Consulting, has dispatched some 200 e-mailed press releases to journalists, said Christina Roosen, spokeswoman for the firm.

``I can't recall another conflict, or any government at another time of crisis, using CNN the way the Georgian government is,'' said Lincoln Mitchell, a professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs in New York. ``One would think that Saakashvili has a regular show on CNN and Lou Dobbs and the other hosts are his guests.''

Slow to Respond

The latest on-air dustup involved Russia's assertion that it had begun withdrawing its invasion forces into the pro-Moscow breakaway republic of South Ossetia, as required by a cease-fire agreement. Georgia and the U.S. said Russia was staying put, holding onto the central city of Gori and paralyzing road and rail movements. The West sees Georgia as an ally, in part because its oil pipeline to the Black Sea bypasses Russia.

Sluggish to respond at first, the Russian government under President Dmitry Medvedev, 42, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, 55, now arrange regular televised briefings with military and other officials and a steady barrage of e-mails. Russian officials also spoke to reporters on background, according to Paul Cohen, a spokesman for PR firm Ketchum Inc., which advises Russia on media matters.

``Russia is starting behind the eight ball a bit,'' said Columbia's Mitchell. ``Both sides are now realizing that public opinion in the West matter.'' Saakashvili is ``head and shoulders above almost everyone'' in Russia, Mitchell added. ``Medvedev goes on TV and looks like a caricature of a Soviet apparatchik, a bureaucrat. Putin looks like one of the Russian mobsters from the Sopranos. They have no idea how to do this.''

`Bias Against Russia'

Pankin said Russia's ramped-up public-relations effort may do little good.

``They may be improving, but there's such bias against Russia that the best possible PR wouldn't do anything,'' he said.

Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy head of Russia's General Staff, suggested the effort wasted time.

``We've spent significant efforts justifying our actions,'' he said at a press briefing yesterday. ``Instead of spending so much time justifying ourselves, we could have done more on the ground to help people.''

The media war started almost as soon as the real war. Saakashvili, who was educated in the U.S. and speaks fluent English, sat for a 20-minute interview with Bloomberg News on Aug. 8 as Russian tanks rolled over the border, one of several interviews he did that day.

Georgia as Victim

On television, he accused Russia of executing a ``well- planned invasion'' aimed at punishing a U.S. ally.

``He's gotten his message across very effectively, that Georgia is a victim of the Russian attack,'' said Janusz Bugajski, director of the New European Democracies Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

It's doubtful Saakashvili's media blitz altered the course of events in his favor, said Jan Techau, a security analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin.

``It didn't help the war,'' he said, ``and it didn't help the impression that the Georgians overplayed their cards and miscalculated badly'' by moving to retake South Ossetia on Aug. 7, which prompted the Russian invasion.

An initial response to Saakashvili was delivered by a Putin spokesman, who told reporters that ``war has started today in South Ossetia.'' Medvedev's appearances were confined to choreographed meetings with Putin and top security officials. ``We will not allow the deaths of our compatriots to go unpunished,'' Medvedev said on state TV.

``Any interviews they do are carefully prepared and managed,'' Bugajski said. ``They didn't want awkward questions.''

U.S. PR Firms

Russia has paid U.S.-based firms for lobbying and related services, according to the Justice Department's most recently available Foreign Agents Registration Act filings, for early 2007. It had a $1.9 million contract with New York-based Ketchum, which arranged interviews, podcasts and opinion articles related to ``energy security, reducing infectious diseases and improving education,'' the department said.

Three other U.S. firms worked for Russia: Venable LLP and the Law Offices of Stewart and Stewart in Washington and Qorvis Communications LLC of McLean, Virginia.

Georgia hired two U.S. lobbyist groups: Orion Strategies LLC received $120,000 to push the government's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Squire Sanders Public Advocacy LLC helped with media outreach. Both groups are based in Washington.

[ezodisy]

The Georgia-Russia war of August 2008 carries a vital lesson: the small territories that broke from Georgia's control in the early 1990s have their own voice, identity, and interest. They must be active participants in deciding their own future, says George Hewitt, the leading scholar of Abkhazian linguistics and history

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

And here's a very interesting analysis of the conflict by George Friedman of Stratfor ("strategic forecasting"):

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_georgian_war_and_balance_power

[Florestan]

And here's a very interesting analysis of the conflict by George Friedman of Stratfor ("strategic forecasting"):

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_georgian_war_and_balance_power

Excellent article. Indeed, Russia has never given up its imperial claims and will do everything, including war, to restore its former status and jurisdiction.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

Excellent article. Indeed, Russia has never given up its imperial claims and will do everything, including war, to restore its former status and jurisdiction.

I'm wondering how you drew that conclusion, since the article doesn't really support it. What Friedman says is "If nothing else happens, the Russians will have demonstrated that they have resumed their role as a regional power. Russia is not a global power by any means, but a significant regional power with lots of nuclear weapons and an economy that isn't all too shabby at the moment." A bit more cautious.

[J.Z. Herrenberg]

I'm wondering how you drew that conclusion, since the article doesn't really support it. What Friedman says is "If nothing else happens, the Russians will have demonstrated that they have resumed their role as a regional power. Russia is not a global power by any means, but a significant regional power with lots of nuclear weapons and an economy that isn’t all too shabby at the moment." A bit more cautious.

I agree. The article doesn't say that Russia wants to regain its empire, but that it has regained some of its regional status because the US is tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq and accords more weight to Iran than to the Caucasus.

[Florestan]

I don't think you read the very last lines, which state as clear as daylight:

Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

[Tapio Dmitriyevich]

BTW, have we discussed Putin? It looks like he's playing an a much higher "leaders league" than our political leaders. It looks like he (Russia?) stands for a more realistic point of view. Defending Russias interests and make no compromises. The European approach seems to be completely different, like "defend anybodies interest with means of compromises". I'm sure this won't work.

[Bunny]

You should also take a look a Gorbachev's op ed piece, Russia Never Wanted a War in today's NYTimes.  It's a pretty lame apology for the events -- and clearly the official line being delivered by someone who is a familiar face here. 

The failure of Gorbachev to see the parallels between the Georgian government's action to preserve their geographical integrity and the Russian actions in Chechnya is telling.  Gorbachev is very concerned with the fact that the breakaway provinces (Ossetia and Abkhazia) have ethnic Russians as well as the fact that ethic Georgians also live in Russia.  Thus Russia has the right to invade and unite the ethnic Georgians of those provinces with the ethic Georgians living in Russia -- ergo these provinces had the right to break away.

But, what about about Chechnya?  For some reason, the Chechens don't have the same right to break away from Russia that the Georgians of Ossetia have to break away from Georgia!  Too bad he didn't bring that up, but then he would have had to argue that Russia had the right to defend it's geographical integrity and how could he do that when he is arguing that the Georgian govt. doesn't have the same right?

Btw, the Russians have not honored the ceasefire and are not going to withdraw from any territory they have taken (far deeper into Georgia than Ossetia).  They have their eyes on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline which is the only thing standing between Russia and complete control of Caspian Sea oil going to the West.  I think anyone who doesn't realize this is just fooling themselves about what the war is about.  Without that pipeline, I doubt Russia would care about those wretched acres in the Caucasus or about the problems of any ethnic Russians there.  It just wouldn't be worth the trouble.

[PerfectWagnerite]

Btw, the Russians have not honored the ceasefire and are not going to withdraw from any territory they have taken (far deeper into Georgia than Ossetia). 

Why should they? There is no Nato or US forces their to brush them back. Would you withdraw if you are the Russians, I sure as hell wouldn't.
There is one world leader that I would sure as hell not want to mess with and that is Putin. He just strikes me as one cold-blooded, calm and calculating SOB. The Georgian government better come to realize that they f*ucked with the wrong leader.

[ezodisy]

They have their eyes on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline which is the only thing standing between Russia and complete control of Caspian Sea oil going to the West.  I think anyone who doesn't realize this is just fooling themselves about what the war is about.  Without that pipeline, I doubt Russia would care about those wretched acres in the Caucasus or about the problems of any ethnic Russians there.  It just wouldn't be worth the trouble.

This is such a load of BULLSHIT that I don't even know where to begin!!!!!!

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

I don't think you read the very last lines, which state as clear as daylight:

Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

I read 'em. This may seem a nitpicky point, but he doesn't go as far as you do:

Excellent article. Indeed, Russia has never given up its imperial claims and will do everything, including war, to restore its former status and jurisdiction.

I take this to be a claim on your part that Russia wants to somehow annex or control all the territory that used to be part of the USSR. Is that what you mean?

[J.Z. Herrenberg]

Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

I read this as meaning 'If you have been used to being an empire for so long, you'll try to become as big a player again as circumstances allow.' Because I don't think any country will ever be an empire in a global sense. Attempting it would risk globocide (word coined by German philosopher Günther Anders).

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

BTW, have we discussed Putin? It looks like he's playing an a much higher "leaders league" than our political leaders. It looks like he (Russia?) stands for a more realistic point of view. Defending Russias interests and make no compromises. The European approach seems to be completely different, like "defend anybodies interest with means of compromises". I'm sure this won't work.

Anyone interested in figuring out what makes Putin tick ought to get hold of the interview collection he did in 2000 called First Person. (There's an English translation.) He says that his role models are Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer - i.e., tough, pragmatic SOBs who picked their shattered countries off the floor and put them back together. He also likes to refer to Franklin Roosevelt a lot. I don't think he has any ideology besides building a strong state. (Bismarck comes to my mind too - the German influence on Putin is very strong.)

[Bunny]

This is such a load of BULLSHIT that I don't even know where to begin!!!!!!

Oh please!  Do you think I am the only person who has noticed that Russia is not withdrawing and is actually pushing further into Georgia?  Give me a break.  Russia's only strategic interest in Georgia is the pipeline.  The very fact that we all admit that Putin and not Medvedev is still calling all of the shots should give you a clue to his real intentions: the consolidation of power and wealth in that area of the world so that Russia under his sole leadership will once again emerge as a global -- not merely regional -- power.  That means controlling all of the oil that flows west from the Caspian Sea and building up a military that is capable of, and ready to take back all of the territories it ceded "independence" to at the breakup of the Soviet Union.  If you think otherwise you are grossly underestimating him. 

[Sarastro]

they have their eyes on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline which is the only thing standing between Russia and complete control of Caspian Sea oil going to the West.  I think anyone who doesn't realize this is just fooling themselves about what the war is about.  Without that pipeline, I doubt Russia would care about those wretched acres in the Caucasus or about the problems of any ethnic Russians there.  It just wouldn't be worth the trouble.

Who told yo that? Oprah? Martha Stewart?

[Sarastro]

If you think otherwise you are grossly underestimating him. 

Of course, you are the Ultimate Authority.

[ezodisy]

Who told yo that? Oprah? Martha Stewart?

Yes that really is it.

That means controlling all of the oil that flows west from the Caspian Sea

Bunny, are you even remotely aware of the complexity of international relations between producers, pipeline shareholders, transporters, and refineries? I suggest you do a bit of research into this before you continue mouthing off about Russia and the BTC because pumping someone else's agenda as you are is going to make you look very stupid.

[Bunny]

The same person who told me George Bush didn't invade Iraq to liberate the poor, oppressed Iraqis. 

When you listen to Medvedev, Putin and finally Gorbachev talking, you have to realize that they are also selling this action to the Russian people.  Apparently they've also sold this line to you.

[ezodisy]

The same person who told me George Bush didn't invade Iraq to liberate the poor, oppressed Iraqis. 

When you listen to Medvedev, Putin and finally Gorbachev talking, you have to realize that they are also selling this action to the Russian people.  Apparently they've also sold this line to you.

Bunny, have you also failed in your attempts to sell goods to the Russians? Because you are behaving in the same ignorant way as over in the other thread about the Chinese.

Okay Bunny, let's presume you're right, that Russia "have their eyes on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline which is the only thing standing between Russia and complete control of Caspian Sea oil going to the West." Can you please explain to me then how the Baku-Supsa and CPC pipelines come into this and what Russia will need to do to gain "complete control" over these? Can you also take a moment to explain how Russia will handle such countries as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to gain "complete control of Caspian Sea oil [and gas]"? If any time remains could you please ever so briefly hint at what Russia might do to persuade the dozen or two multi-national oil and gas companies involved in the region to pack up and leave?

In anticipation of your answers I await with receipt in hand to claim my refund from Russia for faulty ideological goods.