Europe at War

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

A couple of links of interest. First, "A Postcard from Petersburg" gives an on-the-ground look at some of the current goings-on in that city:

https://therussianreader.com/2022/03/09/postcard-from-petersburg-fear-and-despair/

If you have 83 minutes to spare, I recommend this episode of Radio War Nerd. They go into detail on the economic war, i.e. the sanctions, counter-sanctions and their potential consequences:

https://podcastaddict.com/episode/136535208

[MusicTurner]

     NATO does not have to engage with the Russian SAMNet. It doesn't have to fly over well defended territory in order to shoot down planes attacking Ukraine. The goal would be to render Russian air power even more ineffective than it presently is, and make it nearly impossible for Russian attackers to operate over most of Ukrainian territory.

This would make a nuclear war, with smaller bombs for a start, much more likely. Besides widespread annihilation in Europe, the US is also less protected, than some might think.

A. Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO secretary, thinks that it would mean that the war would be spreading - and he is traditionally a 'hawk'.

[Que]

How Europe's addiction to Russian gas fuelled the Ukraine crisis

Years of naivety, complacency and fuel dependency have left the EU strategically weak

Well, I'm not so harsh. As we all know, bad omens are preferably and conveniently ignored.

But sofar every cris has made the EU only stronger.

[drogulus]

This would make a nuclear war, with smaller bombs for a start, much more likely. Besides widespread annihilation in Europe, the US is also less protected, than some might think.

A. Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO secretary, thinks that it would mean that the war would be spreading - and he is traditionally a 'hawk'.

     That's understood. Enhancing Ukrainian air defense by other means may be the best option.

     I don't presume to know how much communication is going on between NATO and the Russian military high command.* I'm sure they talk to each other.

     *

[Todd]

European stocks rally on best day in nearly two years as Ukraine's president cools to NATO membership

[Mandryka]

European stocks rally on best day in nearly two years as Ukraine's president cools to NATO membership

This is either the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning.

[Todd]

Erm. It means "any one". As in, any human person, or corporation, or government entity... or any *thing* one can envisage that might want to prosecute the bastard.

Human persons and corporations do not generally have the legal authority to prosecute individuals or other entities, unless you can cite specific cases where this is legally possible.  They may be able to bring civil suits in some jurisdictions.  Is that what you mean?  If so, I am not sure what value those have in this instance, or what enforcement mechanisms may exist.  Perhaps you can elaborate. 

In terms of criminal prosecution, very few entities have the ability to prosecute heads of state.  The ICC might attempt to, but other than that, do you envision prosecution within the Russian legal system, or do you envision an expansion of extraterritoriality to allow for prosecution by some other sovereign nation state?  If so, which nation state?  Ukraine?  Perhaps you mean that some type of war tribunal should be set up to prosecute Putin and those who support him.  Your posts do not make this clear.

Erm. They are dollar amounts awarded by UN mandate or other intergovernmental treaties, free from encumbrance or risk of prosecution because they have been awarded to an individual by treaty or other inter-governmental agreement, and thus free from all possibility of involuntary assignment or confiscation, seizure or forfeiture.

Can you cite any precedent for the UN doing what you describe?  I would also be interested in knowing what type of treaty might be able to be established to achieve what you suggest, and how non-signatories would be handled. 

Are you having a problem with the English language?

No.

[Todd]

OECD suspends Russia, Belarus from any participation

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday announced it had suspended Russia and Belarus from any participation in its organization...

Russia and Belarus are not official members of the Paris-based group...

[drogulus]

    Oh, here's a thing. Putin feared Ukraine would join the EU, something Ukraine planned to do. That, not NATO membership, was the near term horror. It would mean Ukrainian advances in prosperity and the kind of democratic civil society that no respectable tyrant could tolerate just across the border. It would give ordinary Russians ideas above their stations.

     Thing II: The Baltic states are NATO members and have almost no weaponry at all. Ukraine is not a NATO member and gets attacked. Ohhhhkay....

[SimonNZ]

Does he want to be remembered as the modern Catherine the Great or Peter the Great?

Does he turn the phrase "Vladimir The Great" over and over in his mind?

[JBS]

For informational purposes: a possible precedent
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictment_and_arrest_of_Augusto_Pinochet

[T. D.]

Another one...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idi_Amin#Deposition_and_exile

Surprisingly many parallels could be adduced...for instance, early in the Wiki article we find

Amin's rule was characterised by rampant human rights abuses, including political repression, ethnic persecution and extrajudicial killings, as well as nepotism, corruption, and gross economic mismanagement.

[SimonNZ]

I heard just today that insiders described him as obsessed and terrified by the fate of Gaddafi. And of that of Saddam Houssein.

[Herman]

"Insiders" who talk that way are by definition not insiders.

I wish people would stop talking about Pute as if he's crazy or insane.

That implies there is no other way out than an assassination and that clearly is not going to happen.

It's lazy.

[Florestan]

Watched Lavrov's presser. He lied to the left, he lied to the right, he lied to the center and on top of lies put more lies --- not that I expected anything else, of course. Russian cynicism and their mockery of the whole world is staggering.

[MusicTurner]

Watched Lavrov's presser. He lied to the left, he lied to the right, he lied to the center and on top of lies put more lies --- not that I expected anything else, of course. Russian cynicism and their mockery of the whole world is staggering.

Yes, a professional liar, and to an exceptional degree.

Headlines here in DK are, that Lavrov said '... but we haven't attacked Ukraine at all', etc.

[Que]

Yes, a professional lier, and to an exceptional degree.

Headlines here in DK are, that Lavrov said '... but we haven't attacked Ukraine at all', etc.

His role reminds me of Tariq Aziz, or Donald Rumsfeld...

[Florestan]

Yes, a professional lier, and to an exceptional degree.

Headlines here in DK are, that Lavrov said '... but we haven't attacked Ukraine at all', etc.

A Romanian newspaper inspiredly called him Zhavrov, a pun on the Romanian word of abuse javră (pronounced approximately zha-vruh) which means scumbag.

[Todd]

For informational purposes: a possible precedent
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictment_and_arrest_of_Augusto_Pinochet

Another one...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idi_Amin#Deposition_and_exile

Maybe St Helena can be repurposed.

Watched Lavrov's presser. He lied to the left, he lied to the right, he lied to the center and on top of lies put more lies --- not that I expected anything else, of course. Russian cynicism and their mockery of the whole world is staggering.

Have they found WMD yet?  Sorry, wrong war and wrong lies.

[Que]

Have they found WMD yet?  Sorry, wrong war and wrong lies.

Different war, same lies....

In a tweet, the Russian Embassy referred to claims that "recently found documents" showed components of biological weapons were made in Ukrainian laboratories - with funding from the US Department of Defense.

The US dismissed the claims, saying it was the "kind of disinformation operation we've seen repeatedly from the Russians over the years in Ukraine and in other countries".

Russian officials and media have also claimed in recent days that Ukraine was planning to build a so-called dirty bomb - which disperses radioactive material.

Meanwhile Russia's foreign minister has claimed Ukraine had been seeking nuclear weapons.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60683248


It gives me no pleasure in saying this, but the parallels with the Iraq invasion are rather striking and unsettling...