Russia-Wagner Clash

[BWV 1080]

I had put together a long post on how the deep experience in submersibles I developed over the past week gave me unique insights into internal Russian power dynamics, but unfortunately my phone crashed..

[AnotherSpin]

That's the best outcome of the war for Ukraine, yes, but setting aside the war proper, there's a big question mark hanging over Moscow right now.

If the war in Ukraine is over, it will not be a bad thing at all. As far as Moscow is concerned, I don't really care. My guess is that those with whom the start of the revolt has been agreed have a plan for the future of the Russian Federation. Nuclear arms control, reparations, etc.

[Karl Henning]

My guess is that those with whom the start of the revolt has been agreed have a plan for the future of the Russian Federation. Nuclear arms control, reparations, etc.

I don't think that's a good guess at all.

[Karl Henning]

Russia opened a criminal case Friday against Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the mercenary group, on charges of inciting mutiny. The probe comes after Prigozhin claimed the Russian military launched strikes on Wagner camps, which Moscow denies. Prigozhin, for the first time, also dismissed Russia's justifications for invading Ukraine and accused the defense ministry of misleading Russians about the reasoning for the war. See the latest updates

[AnotherSpin]

I don't think that's a good guess at all.

What guess for the future of RF is good for you?

P.S.: By the way, I suggest you think about the following. Prigozhin took over Rostov first. Which is not on the shortest route from initial Prigozhin's positions on the way to Moscow. It is a very serious detour rather in the opposite direction. But! Rostov is the main logistical centre which supplies the entire Russian occupation force in Ukraine. Ideas?

[T. D.]

Wild stuff breaking on the live BBC feed:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

What was in the agreement and how was Belarus involved?
Abdujalil Abdurasulov

Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine

Belarus strongman Aleksander Lukashenko has conducted talks with Evgeniy Prigozhin.

As a result of the negotiations that lasted for the whole day, Prigozhin has agreed to de-escalate.

Lukashenko's press service reports the negotiations took place with Vladimir Putin's agreement.

"Prigozhin has agreed to stop the march towards Moscow and take further steps to de-escalate the situation," the statement says.

As part of the agreement, Wagner fighters get security guarantees.

What else was offered to Prigozhin and mercenaries is not clear.

Russia has been using the territory of Belarus to launch attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion, effectively erasing Belarus' sovereignty.

And any signs showing that Putin's grip on power is weaking threatens the regime in Minsk that is heavily dependent on Moscow.

Earlier today, Svitlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition leader who challenged Lukashenko in 2020 presidential elections, said the Wagner's rebellion "is the best chance to kick the Russian military out from [Belarus]".

"If we miss this chance," she said in her video appeal, "Russia will do to us exactly what they did to Ukraine."

[drogulus]

    I found it odd that Prigozhin would say Ukraine and NATO didn't threaten Russia. That's obviously true, and that's the odd part. Supposedly his beef with the Russian military is they aren't prosecuting the war successfully. That's a constant refrain for him. But, but.....the war is based on lies according to his own rotten self.

[drogulus]

Wild stuff breaking on the live BBC feed:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

     So they are turning back from Moscow.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

From what I had heard previously (via BBC) was that Prigozhin wanted to meet with the Russian military leaders.  He seems to have a big beef with Shoigu and sounded like he claimed that S. had had an attack on the Wagner group.  Supposedly, Shoigu wants to be totally in control of the Wagner group.  I'll see if I can find the article; it was from about 4 hours ago?

Confusing as (as far as I know) no one outside of the parties involved have heard the talks between the parties involved.

PD

[T. D.]

From what I had heard previously (via BBC) was that Prigozhin wanted to meet with the Russian military leaders.  He seems to have a big beef with Shoigu and sounded like he claimed that S. had had an attack on the Wagner group.  Supposedly, Shoigu wants to be totally in control of the Wagner group.  I'll see if I can find the article; it was from about 4 hours ago?

Confusing as (as far as I know) no one outside of the parties involved have heard the talks between the parties involved.

PD

This is a "fog of war" situation. Even for those directly involved.

No way we outsiders can accurately interpret the news (such as is available) or predict future developments.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

This is a "fog of war" situation. Even for those directly involved.

No way we outsiders can accurately interpret the news (such as is available) or predict future developments.

All one can do is try. Try and understand the players involved...how they are viewed by various parties (apparently, once Prigoshin was known as "Putin's Chef").  Interestingly enough, there is now a live commentary about his background on the Beeb.

PD

[AnotherSpin]

The first act is over. We await what next. Perhaps those who still remain in the shadows will come forward. Putin's power received a catastrophic blow from which it may never recover, as the regime demonstrated its indecisiveness and impotence in the face of the revolt. However, there have been examples in history when it was not those who dealt a blow to the incumbent power who benefited, but a third force. In any case, who will be glad to face a thug like Prigozhin at the head of a nuclear power?

[Florestan]

Only in Russia, folks, only in Russia... 

[Spotted Horses]

I'm inclined to take it at face value, he was coming to Moscow to confront the top military officials amid a show of strength, and it was portrayed as a challenge to Putin. He realized that wasn't going to end well for him and decided to suspend it, for now. Of course, only he knows what his plan was. I don't see a direct threat that Putin, but it certainly doesn't make him look strong.

[T. D.]

Likely to be bad news for Navalny...not that his prospects were good in any event (unfortunately)...his latest trial just started, and the regime will surely be more eager than ever to make an example of him.

[Todd]

Then Russia will get a chance to become a normal country.

What is a normal country?

[LKB]

An interesting turn of events, but l still think Prigozhin has cashed his check -  Putin won't allow such a challenge to go unpunished.

At some point in the near future he'll eat his gun, " fall " from a balcony or his automobile will mysteriously explode.

Perhaps the FSB will arrange for " Putin's Chef " to encounter an especially virulent case of food poisoning...

[T. D.]

An interesting turn of events, but l still think Prigozhin has cashed his check -  Putin won't allow such a challenge to go unpunished.

At some point in the near future he'll eat his gun, " fall " from a balcony or his automobile will mysteriously explode.

Perhaps the FSB will arrange for " Putin's Chef " to encounter an especially virulent case of food poisoning...

Leaving Russia / Russia-annexed Ukraine for the "safety" of Belarus, under a deal negotiated by Lukashenko (Putin's arch-lackey and stooge), does not on the face of it augur well for Mr. Prigozhin's future.

[AnotherSpin]

What is a normal country?

For example, a country that does not attack its neighbours, does not annex others' territories, does not threaten to use nuclear weapons, does not blow up reservoir dams, does not kill civilians... you can add to the list as you wish.

[AnotherSpin]

Leaving Russia / Russia-annexed Ukraine for the "safety" of Belarus, under a deal negotiated by Lukashenko (Putin's arch-lackey and stooge), does not on the face of it augur well for Mr. Prigozhin's future.

Putin may have made a deal with Prigozhin, or rather those who directed Prigozhin. So far there has been a pause and Putin has probably had to give guarantees. Of course, Putin is not among those who keep their word. But, the Prigozhin story has already demonstrated more than vividly that Putin is as weak as ever. I think they call that "losing face"? Anyway, he is in no position to play with his muscles now.

Also, Prigozhin's army is the most militarily effective part of the Russian forces. If Putin goes after it, it will send a very bad signal to those who still believe in the possibility of military success. And it will alienate huge number of sympathisers of the thug Prigozhin among the population. He is, after all, a classic Russian hero who stood up for "truth and justice". Russians adore bandits.