anyone else following Egypt on Aljazeera?

[knight66]

He can see what way the wind is blowing and does not want to be caught any further beyond the wrong side of the tide. At best he plays catch-up for the US. At worst it loses its base of influence because it is seen as part of the old machinery.

If the US had felt so very strongly about the rights of the Egyptian people, it could have said so, publically and forcably long before it has been so conspicuously caught on the hop.

As to economic activity; they have created a disproportion between a substantial sector of people being educated and a comparative lack of opportunity for that education. Also, the seeming prosperity and the education nevertheless only reaches a small proportion of the population, and that, within the cities. The main issues have been suppression and corruption, age old and it seems the example of Tunisia has come at a time when their endurance is exhausted.

But yes; no one is going to make the garden grow any time soon. A small while and the factions will emerge and grow.

Mike

[Scarpia]

Also, the seeming prosperity and the education nevertheless only reaches a small proportion of the population, and that, within the cities.

The numbers do not support this.  The Gini index, which measures income inequality, is 34.4 .  The UK is 34.0, the US is 45.0.  The higher the number the more inequality (0 means everyone has the same income, 100 means one person has all the money).

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html?countryName=Egypt&countryCode=eg&regionCode=af&rank=90#eg

[knight66]

Well, it makes no sense to me in terms of the sheer poverty I know exists on a large scale.

None at all.

In the UK there are government handouts, they are scant in Egypt.

The Egyptian unemployment rate in 2009 was 9.4, an increase over the earlier year. It is 7,0 in the UK, higher than it was in 2009. I am not sure the stats get us anywhere, I doubt they really measure like with like.

In Egypt the norm is still a one wage per married couple. Not so in Europe. The families are bigger in Arab states than in Europe with more children per couple.

Mike

[Scarpia]

Well, it makes no sense to me in terms of the sheer poverty I know exists on a large scale.

None at all.

In the UK there are government handouts, they are scant in Egypt.

The Egyptian unemployment rate in 2009 was 9.4, an increase over the earlier year. It is 7,0 in the UK, higher than it was in 2009. I am not sure the stats get us anywhere, I doubt they really measure like with like.

In Egypt the norm is still a one wage per married couple. Not so in Europe. The families are bigger in Arab states than in Europe with more children per couple.

Mike

Well, the numbers may not be accurate in Egypt.

[drogulus]

I think that a large part of his problem was being appointed leader of a fundimentally ungovernable country. I know it looks disingenuous to keep repeating this, and I don't mean to be, but Egypt offers much more potential than Afghanistan.

     Yes, it does. For one thing Egypt has been a country with a national identity for thousands of years.

 
I also hear Obama telling Mubarak not to run for another term.  Not that I am a fan of Mubarak, what what business is it of Obama's?

     My guess is that we are talking to the military and (I hope) the Muslim Brotherhood. We intend to arrange a "soft landing", a transition with minimal violence. And we want real elections. Once again, we are supposed to intervene if we can help, but we can't intervene because it isn't our business. Which is it? If it really isn't our business why bother worrying about Egypt? Because it affects us? Then it's our business.

[Scarpia]

My guess is that we are talking to the military and (I hope) the Muslim Brotherhood. We intend to arrange a "soft landing", a transition with minimal violence. And we want real elections. Once again, we are supposed to intervene if we can help, but we can't intervene because it isn't our business. Which is it? If it really isn't our business why bother worrying about Egypt? Because it affects us? Then it's our business.

Creating the impression that we consider ourselves puppet masters in Egypt doesn't sound like a good idea, at this point.

[drogulus]

Creating the impression that we consider ourselves puppet masters in Egypt doesn't sound like a good idea, at this point.

     I understand that. If we don't advise Mubarak to go we are one kind of puppet master, if we advise him to fight to stay we are another kind, and if we really, improbably, don't say anything we are really showing that our commitment to democracy is a sham, a cover for our interests. So, let's seek the best outcome and resign ourselves to being interpreted in various ways. Sec. Clinton, as expected, is doing it right, talking about what's good for Egyptians, seeking a nonviolent solution, and not tipping our hand.

[Florestan]

The Gini index, which measures income inequality, is 34.4 .  The UK is 34.0, the US is 45.0.  The higher the number the more inequality (0 means everyone has the same income, 100 means one person has all the money).

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html?countryName=Egypt&countryCode=eg&regionCode=af&rank=90#eg

This index if taken in abstracto, without any reference to the actual amount of incomes, is misleading anyway ---  because a country with a relative equality of miserable incomes fares way worse than one with a greater income inequality but with larger incomes than the first. Proof: Romania has a better Gini index than France, UK, Switzerland or US, yet I leave it to you guessing where the living standard is much worse.

The old man with the cigar nailed it long ago: The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.

[Lethevich]

Looks like either the police or authorities are now encouraging people to attack the protesters, presumably as a prelude to trying to remove them. Several news orgs are reporting that some of those people have admitted that they are being paid to do it.

Edit: Yemen

[greg]

The Egyptian unemployment rate in 2009 was 9.4, an increase over the earlier year. It is 7,0 in the UK, higher than it was in 2009. I am not sure the stats get us anywhere, I doubt they really measure like with like.

That can't be right... those are both small numbers. Maybe the UK numbers are right, but that was smaller than I thought it would be. I'm sure the numbers for Egypt are way off.

Where I live (Florida), the unemployment rate is 12.2%, and in my county 12.5%- though it isn't too bad because there are a couple of counties, such as the one right next to me at 14-15.7%. It can't be that much worse than Egypt...

[knight66]

Greg, I assume the odd number for Egypt excludes most wives, who stay at home. In the US many wives will be registered as unemployed. We don't know the basis for constructing the figures, but they look very low to me too.

Mike

[Scarpia]

Looks like either the police or authorities are now encouraging people to attack the protesters, presumably as a prelude to trying to remove them. Several news orgs are reporting that some of those people have admitted that they are being paid to do it.

That seems to be the strategy, I see a report that Egypt state television is warning protesters to evacuate the square. 

[knight66]

Very depressing, but I did suggest that all those brutalised policemen would not just melt into the night.

Mike

[Scarpia]

Very depressing, but I did suggest that all those brutalised policemen would not just melt into the night.

Well, clearly there are many in Egypt who benefit from the status quo, an who will not sit idly by and watch it being dismantled.  If someone replaces Mubarack and the state institutions remain intact not much will change.  To change those state institutions may require more than chanting, as we have seen. 

[Lethevich]

Egypt's Mubarak 'may stand down'

[Scarpia]

Egypt's Mubarak 'may stand down'

The question of the day, is it democracy or is it a military coup?

[Lethevich]

Both, it seems (they still seem to love those guys).

Either way, I think that the US and Europe's cowering attitude to this has been pretty dreadful - at some point you must put up or shut up. All this "we're such pragmatic grownups" attitude is quite feeble and symptomatic of the weakening ability of the west, so afraid of its own ideals (see: China), to have any effect on the rest of the world save to try to keep them down. Watching the dodderings of the Obama government standing slack-jawed as people around the world are reminded on a daily basis about the torturer that they have been best pals with has been car-crash TV.

All the "scary Islamists" talk I can't buy into. This status quo is what has left the middle east spinning its wheels - if you refuse to risk grasping the potential benefit of change (with emphasis on the risk) when it is gifted to you on a plate then the US administration is failing to be seen to be any better than the leadership in Russia and China, which it regularly criticises for amoral foreign policy. It is a "risk" encouraging a democratic revolution, but it's an equal "risk" propping up these dictators until they decide not to play ball. The difference between this flash of anti-despot sentiment and supporting a regime which is 'awful, but not too awful', is that the former with support can create something good, the latter with support cannot. I can't think of many "protective" tin-pot dictatorships that the US has previously supported that has ended in a stable and successful nation.

Regardless of how Americans view him, Obama remains an inspirational figure throughout much of the world - his support or indifference could be key in how the aftermath of this pans out. He is an intelligent man who realises that the promise of freedom is extremely catching, I wonder why when faced with such promise for the whole region he still holds. Does he really feel that the way things were before were heading in the right direction?

[MishaK]

Lethe,

Two things:

You're absolutely correct that the fear of Islamists here is overblown. This revolution is not run by the Muslim Brotherhood. This article sums it up nicely:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/opinion/03atran.html

Secondly, you overestimate the draw of Obama's persona here. Yes, his speech in Egypt a few years ago was warmly received, but it went to the old regime, implicitly approving of Mubarak. With its history of involvement in Egypt and propping up Mubarak, one of the wors things the US can do at this point is to make it seem like it supports the opposition all too heartily. It will undermine their credibility and appeal to the general Egyptian populace. The whole point is that they want to be free of control by foreign-backed potentates, and anything that smells of such associations will be immediately suspect.

[Lethevich]

Good point on Obama. There was a fun statement in the news just now, somewhat tongue in cheek, that Obama's comments today were him seeking to be found "on the right side of history". I would like to think that privately before today he was rooting for the protestors, but I fear that office may have turned him into a more fearful individual.

[MishaK]

Good point on Obama. There was a fun statement in the news just now, somewhat tongue in cheek, that Obama's comments today were him seeking to be found "on the right side of history". I would like to think that privately before today he was rooting for the protestors, but I fear that office may have turned him into a more fearful individual.

Well, it's not necessarily fear, as it is hardnosed realism. Support the protesters too openly and you a) make the Egyptians second guess the genuiness of the uprising, thinking it may all be another Western ploy to dominate them again (this, in a sense happened in Serbia, where shortly after Milosevic was deposed, Albright's eccessive bragging about her (overblown) role in the revolution turned the population against the democrats. A little later Djindjic was slain and the nationalists are still extremely powerful.), and b) you could freak the Israelis out sufficiently that they end up doing something stupid. Fail to offer support and you look like a) a hypocritical fool and b) may lose what economic interests you may have in Egypt by antagonizing any potential new regime. There simply is no clear cut good way of positioning yourself in this one as the US, given it's past history in the region.