anyone else following Egypt on Aljazeera?

[Scarpia]

And....(drumroll please)....He's staying.   

[MishaK]

And....(drumroll please)....He's staying.   

This is going to have a Ceaucescu style ending.

[Scarpia]

An interesting tidbit, the Presidential Palace where Mubarak is hold up is apparently in the Northern Suburbs of Cairo, far from the site of the demonstrations.  Presumably the security forces are keeping the protesters far away. 

[drogulus]

This is going to have a Ceaucescu style ending.

    I don't think so. Mubarak isn't seen as a monster, just a fairly typical Arab autocrat, and far from the worst of the kind. No one compares him to Saddam Hussein or Hafez al-Assad. The younger generation is less tolerant of his paternalism. They want to join the modern world.

    One thing to note from the demonstrations is the almost complete absence of Islamism. The slogans and statement are all connected to freedom, modernization, and Egyptian patriotism. This is a good sign. At first I thought the Muslim Brotherhood was running a Khomeini-style subterfuge, a maskarova for the media. But no, the beards are outnumbered by a huge margin, as the cameras show. I think the MB has been swept along by events just like everyone else.

[drogulus]

     
      Kenan Malik has a piece in the :

      The Muslim Brotherhood may gain power in Egypt by default

      In short, he says:

     Secular regimes across the Arab world have unleashed the dogs of militant religion in an effort to keep in check leftwing radicals – only to be savaged themselves by the beasts they have let loose. "By making concession after concession in the moral and cultural domains", the French sociologist Gilles Kepel  has observed, governments in Muslim countries "gradually created a reactionary climate of "re-Islamisation". They sacrificed lay intellectuals, writers, and other "westernised elites" to the tender mercies of bigoted clerics, in the hope that the latter, in return, would endorse their own stranglehold on the organs of state.

      This is exactly right.

     

     See, no beards! *

     _{* You know, the big puffy evil ones}

[MishaK]

    I don't think so. Mubarak isn't seen as a monster, just a fairly typical Arab autocrat, and far from the worst of the kind. No one compares him to Saddam Hussein or Hafez al-Assad. The younger generation is less tolerant of his paternalism. They want to join the modern world.

I think you underestimate just how hated his police and security apparatus are and how much they have brutalized the population over the years. If Mubarak doesn't see the wisdom of going quietly, this may very well have a bloody ending for him.

    One thing to note from the demonstrations is the almost complete absence of Islamism. The slogans and statement are all connected to freedom, modernization, and Egyptian patriotism. This is a good sign. At first I thought the Muslim Brotherhood was running a Khomeini-style subterfuge, a maskarova for the media. But no, the beards are outnumbered by a huge margin, as the cameras show. I think the MB has been swept along by events just like everyone else.

Absolutely correct. See the article I linked above.

[Scarpia]

    I don't think so. Mubarak isn't seen as a monster, just a fairly typical Arab autocrat, and far from the worst of the kind. No one compares him to Saddam Hussein or Hafez al-Assad. The younger generation is less tolerant of his paternalism. They want to join the modern world.

He has maintained a "state of emergency" for 30 years which allows the police to detain and torture people at will, which is taken advantage of with alacrity, I understand.  Egypt also has (I have read) an economy where economic opportunity is limited to the cronies of the ruling class.  I don't see that as "paternalism."

[MishaK]

In other news, Mubarak has stepped down and handed power over to the military.

[Lethevich]

I doubt he ever saw reason even at the end, he must have known that if he remained his most likely options would to be either deposed by the military or killed. If he could continue to rule unharried I am sure that he would (which in a way vindicates a military with at least some claws). In one respect it's good that he stalled so long, as it's ruined any chance he has to spin himself as the good guy. 30 years wasted in 3 weeks of foolish behaviour

Best of luck to the Egyptians in the next few months - they deserve a better-run and happier country with the guts so many of the protestors have shown.

[Scarpia]

I doubt he ever saw reason even at the end, he must have known that if he remained his most likely options would to be either deposed by the military or killed. If he could continue to rule unharried I am sure that he would (which in a way vindicates a military with at least some claws). In one respect it's good that he stalled so long, as it's ruined any chance he has to spin himself as the good guy. 30 years wasted in 3 weeks of foolish behaviour

Best of luck to the Egyptians in the next few months - they deserve a better-run and happier country with the guts so many of the protestors have shown.

Got off easier than his predecessor. 

[mahler10th]

What a fantastic day for the poeple of Egypt.

[secondwind]

Egyptians will celebrate February 11 the way US citizens celebrate July 4.  It is an amazing day--the success of a nonviolent revolution.

[knight66]

I hope the dream can be sustained and that it all goes well for them.

Mike

[secondwind]

I do, too.  They have a big job ahead.  Somehow they have to retool the civil service so that it actually serves the people, and get rid of as much fraud, corruption, and especially abuse as possible.  And create jobs and opportunities, especially for the poorest people, who have had few opportunities for a long time.  I think an Egyptian equivalent of the CCC would be a great idea--I'd contribute to that!

[drogulus]

He has maintained a "state of emergency" for 30 years which allows the police to detain and torture people at will, which is taken advantage of with alacrity, I understand.  Egypt also has (I have read) an economy where economic opportunity is limited to the cronies of the ruling class.  I don't see that as "paternalism."

     I was speaking in comparative terms.

     I'm cautiously optimistic. People power revolutions* are a new phenomenon in the Arab world, and it may be a sign that a profound change along generational lines will produce a better future. I wonder if Mubarak will be allowed to stay in Sharm el-Sheikh. That would be a very good sign.

     _{* I know it's a military coup, but driven from below. The military didn't want to do it, which is also a good thing.}

[greg]

Crazy how I saw this happen live. I've seen other stuff live, such as the plane crashing into the WTC and Dale Earnhardt dying, even though I don't watch much TV.
They were interviewing some guy, and all of a sudden you could hear a huge sound coming from the crowd, and that's when it happened.

[Lethevich]

Protests spread to Libya

[Florestan]

Protests spread to Libya

Now, I had mixed feelings about Mubarak (although thirty years in power is more than enough even for the most benevolent and liberal dictator --- not that he was one such) --- but I'm eagerly waiting for Gaddafi's fall. 

[Scarpia]

I saw a report that in the midst of celebrations of Mubarak's departure, an American Television reporter was attacked, sexually assaulted and brutally beaten by a mob of Egyptian men.   Not all beauty and light there. 

[MishaK]

I saw a report that in the midst of celebrations of Mubarak's departure, an American Television reporter was attacked, sexually assaulted and brutally beaten by a mob of Egyptian men.   Not all beauty and light there.

Those were Mubarak's goons, who deliberately targeted foreign press.