Britain and Europe.

[vandermolen]

OK should we stay in? I thought I'd choose a non-controversial topic that we can all agree on. 

[knight66]

I want out; but I want a sensible balance sheet of pros and cons so I can decide how to vote.....any chance we will get that?

I would not put money on it.

Adding to the complexities, I live in Scotland.

Mike

[Que]

OK should we stay in? I thought I'd choose a non-controversial topic that we can all agree on. 

I'd like Britain to stay in. The Dutch find in the UK a natural ally on various topics.

Without the UK, the EU will suffer a loss of significance on the world stage. Also, the balance of power within the EU will shift even more to Germany.
A Germany that is too much hindered by its past to play a leadership role in full. It will be too indecisive and too willing to compromise with member states that are out to run the EU into the ground and towards further political instability and financial ruin.

If I had to guess, I would say the sentiment in the UK in favour of leaving is very strong. This sentiment is fueled by different current crises and the EU being incapable of adequately handling them. However, in cases like this the "undecided" will not stay home but will go out the vote in favour of the status quo - out of fear  for the unknown. So ultimately I predict a narrow majority in favour in remaining in the EU.
If I am mistaken, then Scotland might very well leave the UK to rejoin the EU on its own.

Whatever the outcome the EU is in a very serious crisis, and if the UK isn't carefull this situation might well turn into a major domestic political crisis for Britain.
Which would make matters worse on the European front as well.... Britain in possible political turmoil, France broke and Germany at the end of its tether (and resources). Who will lead to clean up this mess? 

Q

[Scion7]

As an ex-pat who left in 1971, I don't really have an opinion.  Not a fan of the Euro, tho'.

[vandermolen]

Thanks for the replies 
I voted to leave the EEC, as it then was, in the Referendum of the 1970s (first time I was able to vote) but now I am likely to vote to stay in and largely share the views of Que (well, I am partly Dutch) but also very much respect Mike's views. The Scotland situation makes the whole thing more complex I agree. I feel that our security might be strengthened by staying in and sharing intelligence with our European neighbours but am aware of the alternative argument which says that more open borders create a risk too. I'm sure that Boris Johnson has taken up his 'out' position for his own political reasons.

[Florestan]

A better question is: what future does EU have? Immigrants, Greece, Euro, France, UK, Catalonia, Hungary, Poland --- too many problems and no solutions other than bureaucratic legislation and ideological claptrap.

[Jo498]

I think the EU are incredible wimps. It's totally disgusting to have all kinds of special treatments for the Brits and now again give in to their "demands". Which are never enough, apparently.

My gut reaction is very clearly: good riddance, if they want to go.

If they get out and then Scotland separates and joins the EU they are really screwed, I guess.

I think they should have been thrown out several years ago for having had a major part in giving the world economy over to banksters because after they de-industrialized fraudulent finance and the depleting North Sea oil was all they had left.

But as I said, these are gut reactions of total disgust wrt almost all politicians and their policies, especially in the last ca. 10 years (basically the fatal "Merkel era", of course it started much earlier) not based on careful thinking about the consequences.

[Todd]

At least nutso politics isn't confined to just the US. 

If you play the currency markets, now is a good time to place some bets.

[mc ukrneal]

This sums things up quite nicely!
https://www.youtube.com/v/lScVfwe-Rp0

[vandermolen]

This sums things up quite nicely!
https://www.youtube.com/v/lScVfwe-Rp0

Excellent!

[drogulus]

     You are, in the most important way, out. You have your own money. Germany can't "Greece" you.

[Florestan]

Excellent!

Jokes aside, though, let us not forget that there is another country which is indeed genuinely, greatly and actively interested in a disunited Europe and a disarrayed EU... 

[vandermolen]

One of the reasons why I'm marginally in favour of Britain remaining in the EU is because the alternative is very likely to see the break up of the UK - which I do not want to see. Scotland would very likely have a new independence referendum, break away from the rest of the UK and rejoin the EU.

[knight66]

I wonder about the Scottish aspect of this; for some reason people here are more in favour of staying in the EU than are the English. For decades I was a keen EU supporter. Two things changed that for me.

First of all involvement in the EU in some negotiations. The perm civil servants in Brussles had a grip on what they wanted to do. What countries in general wanted and common sense did not come into it. A lot of money was wasted in front of my eyes. If that was typical, then it was very bad news for all the countries around the table.

Secondly, watching what happened to Greece really shocked me. I won't go line by line through the abuses that took place. But Greece got landed with a lot of additional debt by the European banking system and had their assets removed and their democracy was utterly subverted. Badly governed, they should never have been allowed into the Euro. But now there is no realistic way out for them. I could see Scotland being similarily dealt with, despite it not having the Euro.

As to a further referumdum on separation; The Tory party here is viewed generally as a class enemy. That heart ruling the head could win out. The Scottish government has said nothing sensible about how, now that oil prices have halved, the country could support itself. SNP seems as dishonest as they say all the others are.

Mike

[Florestan]

The Tory party here is viewed generally as a class enemy.

Class enemy.... well, hundreds of thousands of Romanians have been imprisoned, deported, maimed or killed for this, and this alone, reason. So I might perhaps be excused if whenever I hear this expression I tend to side exactly with the perceived enemy. 

Plus, I firmly think and believe that corruption, demagoguery, ideological fanaticism and moral bankruptcy are equally distributed among Right and Left alike. 

[knight66]

Well, that's your opinion and it does not in any way invalidate the opinions of very many here. I don't expect you to know the effects in detail of Tory policy. What the Left is up to is irrelevent as they have no power and not much support.

Mike

[Scion7]

Scotland would very likely have a new independence referendum, break away from the rest of the UK and rejoin the EU.

"The problem with Scotland is it's full of Scots." - Edward Longshanks

[vandermolen]

"The problem with Scotland is it's full of Scots." - Edward Longshanks

The only good thing about 'Braveheart' IMHO was Patrick Mcgoohan's performance as Edward.

[Jo498]

The problem are not the traditional "right" and "left", except that I would argue that the traditional left has been very weak for ~3 decades and the contemporary "right" is usually anything but traditionalist in the older sense: despite their rhetoric they will always rather side with international capital, not with family (values).

It's that the EU is trapped between the worst excesses of bureaucracy and oligarchy. The "unified Europe" has not become a union of citizens but a union of or rather for international corporations and EU-bureaucrats.

E.g., Germany is said to be the most powerful nation in Western Europe. But it cannot or will not do anything about the fact that it loses billions (or more) of taxes because of the tax haven policies of (among others) Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Ireland, Switzerland etc. (to name only countries it could reasonably exert influence/pressure on).
The politicians and bureaucrats are themselves trapped among the thickets of bureaucratic rules and they are beholden to the .1% ruling class of international corporations, tax lawyers, banksters and others.

And because a lot of citizens feel (often justifiedly so) screwed by these powers and powerless (because national elections are overruled by international treaties (Greece) or overall inertia of bureaucracy) they are getting more and more angry.

[knight66]

I entirely agree with that.

Mike