Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

I believe Spain has now started the long process of easing out of lockdown by allowing non essential workers back to work.

Is it my mistake, or are things starting to look a bit less well under control in Spain? I thought I heard on the news today that the death figures are going up again.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I stumbled across this article this morning.  Hard to see how this virus has, yet again, caused harm.  I don't use a streaming service, but after reading this, I'm tempted to try one.  https://www.gimell.com/tallis-scholars-marathon-playlist

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Is it my mistake, or are things starting to look a bit less well under control in Spain? I thought I heard on the news today that the death figures are going up again.

I saw this article in the BBC news this morning saying that they were debating whether or not to extend the lockdown 'til mid-May.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52377357

[71 dB]

Pro-life conservatives: Open the country so the economy doesn't suffer more, because that's more important than your life.

When conservatives open their mouth, the irony level goes off the charts. 

[ritter]

Is it my mistake, or are things starting to look a bit less well under control in Spain? I thought I heard on the news today that the death figures are going up again.

The rate of daily new infections is steady at ca. 2.1 or 2.2%. The number of daily reported deaths fell to just below 400 about a week ago, but is now edging up to around 430 over the last couple of days. So, yes, the steady decline seen recently appears to have come to a halt (but nit in a very striking way). Also, the health system is no longer overstretched, and e.g several wings of the 5.000 bed (IIRC) makeshift hospital set up in  the Madrid fair and exhibition centre are no longer being used (but have not been dismantled completely just in case).

I saw this article in the BBC news this morning saying that they were debating whether or not to extend the lockdown 'til mid-May.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52377357

The lockdown in Spain is done following a constitutional mechanism called "state of alarm", which the government can invoke, but must be ratified by the parliament and only has a duration of 2 weeks. The prime minister is NIE in parliament as I write to get the next extension (until May 9th) approved. Although the political climate has deteriorated and become more hostile, it is expected that the extension of the state of alarm will pass through parliament with no problems.

What we did have until 10 days ago was a tightening of the restrictions (during 15 days)  beyond what the original state of alarm decree envisaged. I.e., all non-essential factories were told to stop operations, construction sites were closed, and so on, and the affected employees given a 2-week paid leave (which will be made up for via increased working hours when this all ends). So, the economy was put in "hibernation" (that's the term that was being used). Now we're back to the original measures: all shops (except food, pharmacies and other essentials) remain closed, as well as hotels, restaurants and bars, those who can work from home must do so, the rest may go to their workplace (factories, construction sites, car mechanics, cleaning personnel).

What they will (finally) allow  is for children under the age of 14 to take a daily stroll near their homes for for one hour with one parent (parks will remain closed, though). For almost 6 weeks now, children of any age were confined to their homes like anyone else, and couldn't even accompany their parents* when they went shopping.

* Only one parent, that is. Going out to shop in couples was (and remains) forbidden.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Thanks for the updates Ritter! 

Best wishes,

PD

[Mandryka]

The rate of daily new infections is steady at ca. 2.1 or 2.2%.

That's good. Maybe the increase in deaths are because of a large number of difficult cases appearing at the same time.

For almost 6 weeks now, children of any age were confined to their homes like anyone else, and couldn't even accompany their parents* when they went shopping.

I couldn't believe my eyes when I read this.

[ritter]

What they will (finally) allow  is for children under the age of 14 to take a daily stroll near their homes for for one hour with one parent (parks will remain closed, though). For almost 6 weeks now, children of any age were confined to their homes like anyone else, and couldn't even accompany their parents* when they went shopping.

* Only one parent, that is. Going out to shop in couples was (and remains) forbidden.

I couldn't believe my eyes when I read this.

You might have already seen this, and the lady is not Spanish, but she expresses what many Spanish parents can be feeling these days 

https://www.youtube.com/v/0-nftLnl8H4

[Karl Henning]

Sounds like The Onion, but ain't:

Texas state Governor Greg Abbott declared church services an "essential service" that may continue during the pandemic.

[André]

More scientists here in Denmark saying that the herd immunity concept is an illusion, and that an average body's gained immunity towards the corona type viruses only tends to last for limited time, and even down to just one year.

The herd strategy, also costing more lives, is therefore wrong for several reasons, they say.

From what I read, more and more reports tend to indicate an infection (contagion) rate of 3-5%, making it impossible to reach the level of contagion (estimated around 70%) that would result in herd immunity.

IOW relaxation of current confinement measures will cause new infections for which the population will not have developed immunity. Second and third waves of pandemic cannot be excluded.

[MusicTurner]

From what I read, more and more reports tend to indicate an infection (contagion) rate of 3-5%, making it impossible to reach the level of contagion (estimated around 70%) that would result in herd immunity.

IOW relaxation of current confinement measures will cause new infections for which the population will not have developed immunity. Second and third waves of pandemic cannot be excluded.

Yes, it's being debated & obviously as a layman, I can't say who's right, but there are several aspects to criticize, possibly reject the herd / immunity theories - such as

1) the body might just become immune for only a short period, even down to one year
2) calculations often result in, that getting the whole population into a first immunity stage would in reality take several years
3) the virus tends to mutate a lot and in that way possibly transcend immunity as well

One of the sources for this is a Danish professor at Oxford, Astrid Iversen.

You rarely hear this sort of critique regarding the official immunity or herd policies.

Sweden, working with their herd policy and very limited lock-down, is experiencing large numbers of fatalities now - the last two days it's been 5-6 times of Denmark's in relation to population size. Here's a Twitter thread critical of it
https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1253006518657650690
but there's hardly any critique there.

The mentioned aspects might also become a problem regarding finding any truly effective vaccine, of course.
Therefore it seems obvious, I think, that reducing risks and finding the best possible treatment options are the best short-term policies.

[Mirror Image]

Pro-life conservatives: Open the country so the economy doesn't suffer more, because that's more important than your life.

When conservatives open their mouth, the irony level goes off the charts. 

They never said it was more important than your own life. The fact is people are hurting financially and if certain stores follow CDC guidelines of social distancing, then they could make a little more money to live on even though it may be rather slow to begin with. But I guess people having money to live on so they won't starve to death means nothing to you. Oh wait, why should it, you're done with American politics, remember?

[greg]

They never said it was more important than your own life. The fact is people are hurting financially and if certain stores follow CDC guidelines of social distancing, then they could make a little more money to live on even though it may be rather slow to begin with. But I guess people having money to live on so they won't starve to death means nothing to you. Oh wait, why should it, you're done with American politics, remember?

Also widespread financial devastation always leads to more suicides and lower quality of life (especially for younger people), so yeah, a well functioning economy is just as important since it literally is a matter of life and death.

[71 dB]

They never said it was more important than your own life. The fact is people are hurting financially and if certain stores follow CDC guidelines of social distancing, then they could make a little more money to live on even though it may be rather slow to begin with. But I guess people having money to live on so they won't starve to death means nothing to you. Oh wait, why should it, you're done with American politics, remember?

I didn't comment on the policy of opening the businesses. I am totally aware of the need to do that is huge. I commented on the hypocrisy of being pro-life selectively. When it's about people dying from covid-19 conservatives are more pro-business than pro-life. When it's about capital punishments consevatives are not pro-life. However, if it is about unborn fetuses or zygots conservatives are very much pro-life!

What comes to people being hit by this pandemic, that's on Americans themselves. They have voted for right-wingers for decades and been happy with weak social safety nets. This is what happens when these safety nets are needed, but they don't exist. Countries with stronger social safety nets are in much better situation in this regard.

[Karl Henning]

What comes to people being hit by this pandemic, that's on Americans themselves.

At times you are beneath contempt.

[Mandryka]

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change's report on relaxing lockdown. (unlockingdown?)

https://institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Tony%20Blair%20Institute%20for%20Global%20Change.pdf

And a report which they refer to, which suggests letting young people (under 30) with no preexisting conditions return to work

https://www.andrewoswald.com/docs/newFinalCOVIDpaper-on-releasing-the-young-OswaldPowdthavee2020(1).pdf

[Pohjolas Daughter]

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change's report on relaxing lockdown. (unlockingdown?)

https://institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Tony%20Blair%20Institute%20for%20Global%20Change.pdf

And a report which they refer to, which suggests letting young people (under 30) with no preexisting conditions return to work

https://www.andrewoswald.com/docs/newFinalCOVIDpaper-on-releasing-the-young-OswaldPowdthavee2020(1).pdf

I'll have to look at those reports.  Re the under 30:  I did hear the story of a supposedly healthy young man dying...didn't catch all of the story, but what came up was the possible implications of vaping and deaths.   

So much info to try and keep up with these days....and digest!  Trying to figure out what is going on in my own state....different stats presented during different news stories, so am trying to compare 'apples to apples'.  Will do more checking out later...

Just remembered an article on the BBC talking about political issues (possible grabs for power and also setbacks):  Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey which makes one think:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52308002

Best wishes to all,

PD

[JBS]

More bad news
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-blood/alarmed-as-covid-patients-blood-thickened-new-york-doctors-try-new-treatments-idUSKCN22421Z
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/blood-clots-coronavirus-tpa/

[Karl Henning]

More bad news
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-blood/alarmed-as-covid-patients-blood-thickened-new-york-doctors-try-new-treatments-idUSKCN22421Z
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/blood-clots-coronavirus-tpa/

Was just reading a piece on this.

[André]

Was just reading a piece on this.

This one?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/

I read it today, too.