Coronavirus thread

[Karl Henning]

Sweet!

Just take a look at this very thread from a year ago and see what treatment people got, who dared to even contemplate, let alone suggest, that the virus could actually be a laboratory or scientific experiment that got out of hand.

Conspiracy theory mongers earn their scorn honestly.

[Karl Henning]

Ordinary people* are just fed up with authorities telling them how they should live their lives, what they should do and what they shouldn't... because, as a darling of the auhtorities onces said, in the long run we are all dead...

Why go to the doctor? in the long run we are all dead...

Why do I bother going to therapy where I ecpend considerable effort trying to restore use of my left hand? in the long run we are all dead...

[Mandryka]

Why go to the doctor? in the long run we are all dead...

Why do I bother going to therapy where I ecpend considerable effort trying to restore use of my left hand? in the long run we are all dead...

Because we fear the gross chasm where sickness lies.

Je crains l'abîme obèse où gît la maladie

(Better translation anyone?)

[ritter]

My last two posts dedicated to Rafael (ritter), if he ever reads this thread.

Many thanks, Andrei! I feel honoured...(I occasionally read this thread  ).

[Spotted Horses]

The local Walmart is closed for "sanitization," apparently after a large number of employees tested positive for Covid-19.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

The local Walmart is closed for "sanitization," apparently after a large number of employees tested positive for Covid-19.

Oh, boy!

I do wonder though how much those sanitation efforts help re slowing down/preventing transmission of Covid?  If nothing else though, cleaning out any air ducts, vents, etc. would be good for the general health of the workers and customers.

PD

[Spotted Horses]

Oh, boy!

I do wonder though how much those sanitation efforts help re slowing down/preventing transmission of Covid?  If nothing else though, cleaning out any air ducts, vents, etc. would be good for the general health of the workers and customers.

PD

I doubt the cleaning does much. Perhaps they are taking the opportunity to test all employees. I also read that Walmart will now require all employees to be vaccinated. Perhaps they are making a drive to vaccinate. Ironically, vaccines are given on a walk-in basis at the location.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I doubt the cleaning does much. Perhaps they are taking the opportunity to test all employees. I also read that Walmart will now require all employees to be vaccinated. Perhaps they are making a drive to vaccinate. Ironically, vaccines are given on a walk-in basis at the location.

That would be the biggest of help (getting all of the employees that can be vaccinated, vaccinated).

Wonder how things are going at the motorcycle rally in South Dakota?  I later heard that the town bought a bundle of masks to hand out for anyone wanting one, have set up lots of sanitation stations around town, and are also willing to drop off rapid test kits for anyone who would like one.  Wonder how well too that they will be able to alert people if (more likely when) someone does test positive for Covid?   

PD

[André]

The UK Times account is more complete, but it has a paywall.


https://metro.co.uk/2021/08/05/anti-vaxxer-dies-days-after-saying-covid-is-nothing-to-be-afraid-of-15043153/

[Spotted Horses]

Wonder how things are going at the motorcycle rally in South Dakota?  I later heard that the town bought a bundle of masks to hand out for anyone wanting one, have set up lots of sanitation stations around town, and are also willing to drop off rapid test kits for anyone who would like one.  Wonder how well too that they will be able to alert people if (more likely when) someone does test positive for Covid?   

PD

Yes, they held the rally last year as well and later epidemiologists connected a huge number of cases in the region to spreading at the event.

It turns out that years ago, in 2006, I was doing a road trip from he west coast to the east cost, and was on interstate 90, which goes through Sturgis. I was surprised to see a huge number of motorcycles on the road and when I stopped to get lunch at a Macdonalds the parking lot was full of them. Had no idea about the festival at that time.

[Florestan]

Conspiracy theory mongers earn their scorn honestly.

But that's precisely the point, Karl: what last year was scorned as conspiracy theory is today a hypothesis seriously considered and investigated by the US intelligence. From the article: "CNN reported last month that senior Biden administration officials overseeing the 90-day review now believe the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild -- a dramatic shift from a year ago, when Democrats publicly downplayed the so-called lab leak theory."

I guess this is a perfect illustration of the old adage si duo dicunt idem, non est idem, on multiple levels. When the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild was suggested by senior Trump adnministration officials it was scorned as conspiracy theory and scapegoatism; now that the same theory is espused by senior Biden administration officials, it is suddenly legit and worth investigating --- if they say something, then it must be wrong; if we say the same thing, then it might be true. Also, when the theory was believed by people not in any position of state authority, they were scorned as just ignorant conspiracy theorists or mad / attention-seeking scientists; now that that the theory is proposed by people in positions of state authority, it is suddenly legit and worth investigating --- if the people say something, then it must be wrong; if the State says the same thing, then it might be true. Indeed, if two say the same, it's not the same.

[Florestan]

Why do I bother going to therapy where I ecpend considerable effort trying to restore use of my left hand?

For the same reason that those people go to to the motorbike rally: both you and they try to get back to normal life and do what you / they love (composing and playing the clarinet, in your case, motorbiking and socializing with their kind, in their case).

I don't know about them but you made impressive progress, honestly. Someone who didn't know your condition wouldn't guess it from your posts. Keep up the good job, wishing you speedy and complete recovery. May the day you'll be playing the clarinet again come quickly!

[krummholz]

But that's precisely the point, Karl: what last year was scorned as conspiracy theory is today a hypothesis seriously considered and investigated by the US intelligence. From the article: "CNN reported last month that senior Biden administration officials overseeing the 90-day review now believe the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild -- a dramatic shift from a year ago, when Democrats publicly downplayed the so-called lab leak theory."

I guess this is a perfect illustration of the old adage si duo dicunt idem, non est idem, on multiple levels. When the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild was suggested by senior Trump adnministration officials it was scorned as conspiracy theory and scapegoatism; now that the same theory is espused by senior Biden administration officials, it is suddenly legit and worth investigating --- if they say something, then it must be wrong; if we say the same thing, then it might be true. Also, when the theory was believed by people not in any position of state authority, they were scorned as just ignorant conspiracy theorists or mad / attention-seeking scientists; now that that the theory is proposed by people in positions of state authority, it is suddenly legit and worth investigating --- if the people say something, then it must be wrong; if the State says the same thing, then it might be true. Indeed, if two say the same, it's not the same.

Speaking only for myself, the reason I give the lab-leak theory a little more credence today than last year has nothing to do with the fact that the new administration is giving it more credence, but rather that scientists are (and in particular, Francis Collins), and that the reasons for being confident in a natural zoonotic origin have been somewhat, if not discredited, then at least shown to be roughly equally plausible as those favoring accidental release from the Wuhan lab.

I suspect the argument is going to continue for some time, and the issue will probably never be definitively settled. To be sure, barring its discovery among materials inside the lab, I don't see any way to distinguish with confidence a purely zoonotic origin among Chinese farmers from a purely zoonotic origin among Chinese virologists - i.e. the theory that the scientists contracted the virus whilst collecting samples in bat caves, as opposed to after conducting gain-of-function experiments on a virus found in those samples.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Yes, they held the rally last year as well and later epidemiologists connected a huge number of cases in the region to spreading at the event.

It turns out that years ago, in 2006, I was doing a road trip from he west coast to the east cost, and was on interstate 90, which goes through Sturgis. I was surprised to see a huge number of motorcycles on the road and when I stopped to get lunch at a Macdonalds the parking lot was full of them. Had no idea about the festival at that time.

Sorry to hear that they still held it last year. 

Reading about it in the news reminded me that some years ago (long before Covid-19), I used to go to a doctor who loved riding motorcycles.  We got into yakking about our summers and she told me that she had gone to this festival.  From what I recall, she had enjoyed the experience.

PD

[Spotted Horses]

Speaking only for myself, the reason I give the lab-leak theory a little more credence today than last year has nothing to do with the fact that the new administration is giving it more credence, but rather that scientists are (and in particular, Francis Collins), and that the reasons for being confident in a natural zoonotic origin have been somewhat, if not discredited, then at least shown to be roughly equally plausible as those favoring accidental release from the Wuhan lab.

I suspect the argument is going to continue for some time, and the issue will probably never be definitively settled. To be sure, barring its discovery among materials inside the lab, I don't see any way to distinguish with confidence a purely zoonotic origin among Chinese farmers from a purely zoonotic origin among Chinese virologists - i.e. the theory that the scientists contracted the virus whilst collecting samples in bat caves, as opposed to after conducting gain-of-function experiments on a virus found in those samples.

I generally agree.

It seems to me that the messaging from people who have both the scientific expertise and presumably have access to intelligence briefings (people like Anthony Fauci) has been pretty consistent. Transfer from an animal host to humans in the environment is the obvious explanation (it has happened many times in the past). Leak from the virus institute can't be ruled out, but there is no concrete evidence either way and it appears to be the far less likely scenario. (There are a few instances in the past when a person working in a research laboratory got infected and carried the infection out.) Early on scientists were reluctant to give credence to the possibility that the virus came from the institute because they didn't want to seem to support the politically motivated conspiracy theories coming from the Trump Administration.

In any case, purely scientific studies have concluded that the Covid-19 virus came from natural evolution (rather than deliberate manipulation).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

The conclusion here is that scientists have a bag of tricks for manipulating viruses and the genome of the novel coronavirus does not show the hallmarks of any of these tricks. It shows statistical characteristics that one might expect from natural evolution. To believe that Chinese scientists created this virus deliberately is to accept that the Chinese scientist have scientific and technical expertise vastly superior to western scientists.

The only real issue is whether the institute was negligent in allowing a virus they had collected from the wild infect a worker. The idea that it was part of a bioweapons project is pretty absurd, considering that a coronavirus like the Covid-19 virus is the worst imaginable candidate for a bioweapon. An ideal bioweapon is extremely lethal and not very contagious. You want to dose your enemy, then they all die, and the pathogen does not spread further. Something like Anthrax. You don't want to dose your enemy, only 1% of them die, then the virus spreads back to you and 1% of your people die too.

There are frequency implications that the secrecy surrounding the Wuhan outbreak is proof of wrongdoing. Secrecy surrounds everything the government does in China. That is a characteristic of totalitarian governments. Certainly the local authorities were intent on concealing the severity of the outbreak from the population and the national authorities. That was an unforgivable, stupid action that cost many lives. Chinese scientists published the full genomic sequence of the Covid-19 virus on January 10, 2020, a day before the first confirmed death, and 2 weeks before transport from Wuhan was locked down by the national government. The scale of the outbreak was concealed (until the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, 2020 made it obvious how serious the national government was taking it). Knowledge about the nature of the disease was shared as soon as it was available.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/chinese-researchers-reveal-draft-genome-virus-implicated-wuhan-pneumonia-outbreak

[André]

Very interesting, Spotted Horses. With every day bringing news and anecdotes we (at least I) tend to forget about the original context and chain of events.

[Karl Henning]

But that's precisely the point, Karl: what last year was scorned as conspiracy theory is today a hypothesis seriously considered and investigated by the US intelligence. From the article: "CNN reported last month that senior Biden administration officials overseeing the 90-day review now believe the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild -- a dramatic shift from a year ago, when Democrats publicly downplayed the so-called lab leak theory."

I guess this is a perfect illustration of the old adage si duo dicunt idem, non est idem, on multiple levels. When the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild was suggested by senior Trump adnministration officials it was scorned as conspiracy theory and scapegoatism; now that the same theory is espused by senior Biden administration officials, it is suddenly legit and worth investigating --- if they say something, then it must be wrong; if we say the same thing, then it might be true. Also, when the theory was believed by people not in any position of state authority, they were scorned as just ignorant conspiracy theorists or mad / attention-seeking scientists; now that that the theory is proposed by people in positions of state authority, it is suddenly legit and worth investigating --- if the people say something, then it must be wrong; if the State says the same thing, then it might be true. Indeed, if two say the same, it's not the same.

The hypothesis may be the same, the behavior is not. The purpose of the US Intelligence and the Biden administration is to find out the fact of the matter, and to save lives.

Trump's purpose was always to flood the zone with shit. Nor was he ever in even the least interested in saving any life other than his own. This was a "President" whose "work" in addressing a public health crisis which has now claimed 600K+ American lives was to play golf more than any US President in history, and to dance to disco music at his own superspreader rallies.

[Karl Henning]

There are frequency implications that the secrecy surrounding the Wuhan outbreak is proof of wrongdoing.

Indeeed. And even without your sequel, Educated adults understand this to be pure fallacy.

[MusicTurner]

Sorry to hear that they still held it last year. 

Reading about it in the news reminded me that some years ago (long before Covid-19), I used to go to a doctor who loved riding motorcycles.  We got into yakking about our summers and she told me that she had gone to this festival.  From what I recall, she had enjoyed the experience.

PD

Speaking of pleasant experiences with bikers, I once stayed at a camp site on the shore of a Swedish lake, near the town of Jönköping, run by mainly senior motorbike-interested people of both sexes for their visiting associates and next to their club-house, and it was calm and enjoyable (not a busy time there either). Obviously, it had nothing to do with say biker gangs. It is still there, I see https://www.svenskalag.se/Vmck/sida/13651/camp-vmck I'm sure you have plenty of such stuff in the US too, like in almost all countries.

We also have a traditional gathering for bikers here, at the annual opening of the 'Bakken' amusement park north of Copenhagen, where there'll be a cortege up to the place from the city center, with up to 7,000 bikes, spread out in groups. In 2020, it was cancelled due to Corona, in 2021 it was postponed one month, to bring it in accordance with the general opening up in society. Again, it is not a gang-related event, but combined with other families visiting the opening, and obviously more modest and short-lasting, than 700,000 in days of gatherings at a place.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Speaking of pleasant experiences with bikers, I once stayed at a camp site on the shore of a Swedish lake, near the town of Jönköping, run by mainly senior motorbike-interested people of both sexes for their visiting associates and next to their club-house, and it was calm and enjoyable (not a busy time there either). Obviously, it had nothing to do with say biker gangs. It is still there, I see https://www.svenskalag.se/Vmck/sida/13651/camp-vmck I'm sure you have plenty of such stuff in the US too, like in almost all countries.

We also have a traditional gathering for bikers here, at the annual opening of the 'Bakken' amusement park north of Copenhagen, where there'll be a cortege up to the place from the city center, with up to 7,000 bikes, spread out in groups. In 2020, it was cancelled due to Corona, in 2021 it was postponed one month, to bring it in accordance with the general opening up in society. Again, it is not a gang-related event, but combined with other families visiting the opening, and obviously more modest and short-lasting, than 700,000 in days of gatherings at a place.

Oh, yeah.  All kinds of people enjoy riding motorcycles.  Out of curiosity, I looked at their website.  Lots of concerts going on (over the course of 10 days) and some different events/competitions (including best mustache/beard).  They have a few live webcams set up in the city, so you can get an idea of what it's like there.  https://www.sturgismotorcyclerally.com/?_ga=2.233388830.1491013976.1628519033-631173795.1628519033

PD