Coronavirus thread

[greg]

But that's precisely the point, Karl: what last year was scorned as conspiracy theory is today a hypothesis seriously considered and investigated by the US intelligence. From the article: "CNN reported last month that senior Biden administration officials overseeing the 90-day review now believe the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild -- a dramatic shift from a year ago, when Democrats publicly downplayed the so-called lab leak theory."

I guess this is a perfect illustration of the old adage si duo dicunt idem, non est idem, on multiple levels. When the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it emerged naturally in the wild was suggested by senior Trump adnministration officials it was scorned as conspiracy theory and scapegoatism; now that the same theory is espused by senior Biden administration officials, it is suddenly legit and worth investigating --- if they say something, then it must be wrong; if we say the same thing, then it might be true. Also, when the theory was believed by people not in any position of state authority, they were scorned as just ignorant conspiracy theorists or mad / attention-seeking scientists; now that that the theory is proposed by people in positions of state authority, it is suddenly legit and worth investigating --- if the people say something, then it must be wrong; if the State says the same thing, then it might be true. Indeed, if two say the same, it's not the same.

That's why sometimes it's best to go by one's own intuition. There's no political or financial conflicting interests in that.

In other situations, intuition is great because it can save your life (or wallet). I recently watched a video of some guy doing a U-turn right before getting to a cartel checkpoint in Mexico- a normal, oblivious America would have been like, "Oh, gee, a government checkpoint? Guess I'll just show them ID or whatever and gosh darn go on my jolly good way!" 

Lab leak theory never sounded far-fetched at all to me. Wet market theory also didn't sound far-fetched, but there were no signs supporting it, and if it's the official story from the least-trusted government on the planet, why not consider an alternative possibility?

But I could have never anticipated the epic sci-fi drama twist of Fauci and the gain of research thing... we'll see how that plays out. LOL

I'd also say that conspiracy BS like bioweapon theory, or microchips in vaccines sound highly unintuitive to me. There's just too much to argue against why those scenarios would be likely. I'd consider the people that came up with this stuff to be less connected to reality, and moreso aspiring playwrights. 

[Karl Henning]

Speaking of pleasant experiences with bikers, I once stayed at a camp site on the shore of a Swedish lake, near the town of Jönköping, run by mainly senior motorbike-interested people of both sexes for their visiting associates and next to their club-house, and it was calm and enjoyable (not a busy time there either). Obviously, it had nothing to do with say biker gangs. It is still there, I see https://www.svenskalag.se/Vmck/sida/13651/camp-vmck I'm sure you have plenty of such stuff in the US too, like in almost all countries.

We also have a traditional gathering for bikers here, at the annual opening of the 'Bakken' amusement park north of Copenhagen, where there'll be a cortege up to the place from the city center, with up to 7,000 bikes, spread out in groups. In 2020, it was cancelled due to Corona, in 2021 it was postponed one month, to bring it in accordance with the general opening up in society. Again, it is not a gang-related event, but combined with other families visiting the opening, and obviously more modest and short-lasting, than 700,000 in days of gatherings at a place.

There's also an annual bikerfest in nearby Laconia, New Hampshire. The event was scaled back last year, and it was not the superspreader it might hsve been (100 positive tests in its wake) Vaccination was offered at this year's do.

[Spotted Horses]

That's why sometimes it's best to go by one's own intuition. There's no political or financial conflicting interests in that.

Intuition works great when you don't know anything and it doesn't matter to anyone else if you are right or wrong. For other circumstances, there is "information."

[Karl Henning]

That's why sometimes it's best to go by one's own intuition. There's no political or financial conflicting interests in that.

If you're trying to backpedal your peddling of conspiracy theory wares as "intuition," I ain't buying it, and I wonder how many sales you'll log among present company.

[Florestan]

Early on scientists were reluctant to give credence to the possibility that the virus came from the institute because they didn't want to seem to support the politically motivated conspiracy theories coming from the Trump Administration.

Iow, they were reluctant to consider a hypothesis, for fear that if it had been proven right it would have supported the politically motivated conspiracy theories coming from the Trump Administration. Bottom line, the search for truth is not about finding the truth plain and simple, searching for truth is about politics and what is politically convenient. Good to know!

To believe that Chinese scientists created this virus deliberately is to accept that the Chinese scientist have scientific and technical expertise vastly superior to western scientists.

The lab-leak-theory is one thing; the deliberately-created-and-released-virus theory is another thing; one can consider the former as plausible without subscribing to the latter, although anyone who has extensive first-hand experience of how totalitarianism works would not rule out the latter completely --- more about this below.

The idea that it was part of a bioweapons project is pretty absurd, considering that a coronavirus like the Covid-19 virus is the worst imaginable candidate for a bioweapon. An ideal bioweapon is extremely lethal and not very contagious. You want to dose your enemy, then they all die, and the pathogen does not spread further. Something like Anthrax. You don't want to dose your enemy, only 1% of them die, then the virus spreads back to you and 1% of your people die too.

I'd say that a virus which

(a) spreads, and mutates, super fast;
(b) has wreaked havoc in the healthcare systems of the  EU, the USA, Russia, Brazil, India and many other countries, resulting in millions of deaths;
(c) has disrupted the economy, tourism, transportation of the same countries / regions, resulting in millions of affected people and businesses;
(d) has affected negatively the social and political environment of the same countries / regions;
(e) shows no sign of subsiding, on the contrary we are constantly and incessantly warned about it coming back again and again, ever more virulent

could qualify as a quite effective biological weapon

The virus spread from China to the rest of the world, not the other way back around; plus, the Chinese Communist Party has extensive expertise in killing their own people by the millions in order to advance and achieve their goals.

I don't think the virus was deliberately released, but the possibility can't be ruled out completely.

There are frequency implications that the secrecy surrounding the Wuhan outbreak is proof of wrongdoing. Secrecy surrounds everything the government does in China. That is a characteristic of totalitarian governments.

Yes --- and precisely for this reason any rational person should in principle distrust, fact-check (if possible) and try to investigate (if possible), everything that the Chinese authorities say, including scientific authorities (anyone who has extensive first-hand experience of how totalitarianism works knows that in such a regime science is completely subordinated to politics, or rather to ideology).

[Karl Henning]

I think this is the right thread for this.

[Florestan]

The hypothesis may be the same, the behavior is not. The purpose of the US Intelligence and the Biden administration is to find out the fact of the matter, and to save lives.

Whether the virus originated in the Wuhan lab or in the wild is a question of truth plain and simple. If it was established beyond any reasonable doubt that it was the former, (and that's a big if) it would not save one single life by itself.

A truth is a truth no matter who proclaims it --- and anyone who proclaims a truth is right.

[MusicTurner]

I think this is the right thread for this.

Great sign. We don't really have any like that here, but the local police can do similar tweets-with-a-twist to the public at some occasions, though, to promote some sense of responsibility, towards youngsters etc.

[Florestan]

I think this is the right thread for this.

It's something more appropriate for the grammar grumble thread, actually. 

It should read either

Unless you feel that this is an attempt to deprive you of your liberty, stop driving!

or

If you feel that this is an attempt to deprive you of your liberty, then keep driving!

The original formulation makes no sense at all. Not to mention that I don't think a construction like unless...then is correct..

[Karl Henning]

Bloomberg via The Boston Globe: "The U.K. said Covid-19 accounted for 4% of all deaths in the last week of July, the highest weekly share of all deaths in three months.

The Office for National Statistics counted 11,573 deaths in the week through July 30, 468 of which included the coronavirus as a cause. That's 1,262 above the five-year average.

These figures reflect a progressive loosening of lockdown rules starting in April that resulted in most restrictions being scrapped on July 19. Infections have been rising steadily since, but serious sickness and hospitalizations remain below peak levels last year because of a rapid takeup of vaccines."

The Boston Globe: "Arkansas down to 8 open ICU beds amid surge; Texas Governor Abbott seeks out-of-state help against COVID-19
Abbott's request Monday came as a county-owned hospital in Houston raised tents to accommodate their COVID-19 overflow; Florida Governor DeSantis threatens to withhold school leaders' pay if they require masks
As students in many Florida counties headed back to school Monday, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis threatened to stop paying superintendents and school board members who defy his executive order banning classroom mask mandates."

[T. D.]

New page from the GOP playbook:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-10/abbott-appeals-for-out-of-state-help-against-covid-19

[Karl Henning]

New page from the GOP playbook:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-10/abbott-appeals-for-out-of-state-help-against-covid-19

Yep:  criminal irresponsibility at home, and ask for handouts ....

[Karl Henning]

What Is "Natural Immunity"? And Why Should You Get the Vaccine Even if You Already Had COVID?

How immunity works and why you should get vaccinated—even if you had COVID.

[greg]

Intuition works great when you don't know anything and it doesn't matter to anyone else if you are right or wrong. For other circumstances, there is "information."

It can also work great if it does matter.
Like avoiding befriending someone who gives you bad vibes. Pretty common for people to not trust their gut and then regret it later.
Also, with information you have to verify it yourself if it is accurate, or from someone you trust. At that point you can go ahead and prioritize the information over your intuition.

If you're trying to backpedal your peddling of conspiracy theory wares as "intuition," I ain't buying it, and I wonder how many sales you'll log among present company.

No idea what you're talking about, I never promoted any conspiracy theory. You'd have to tell me which one you are referring to.

I think this is the right thread for this.

It's nice that we have grown up in a free country to where we can laugh at retards, but show this to a North Korean refugee or any slave from history and I'd bet money that they would find no humor in it at all.

[Holden]

This makes for interesting reading.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/uk/300380201/covid19-delta-variant-has-wrecked-hopes-of-uk-herd-immunity-warn-scientists

Would Australia do this after getting vaccination levels up to scratch? I'm not so sure.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

New page from the GOP playbook:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-10/abbott-appeals-for-out-of-state-help-against-covid-19

I was skimming through the article and wanted to go back to see exactly what he was asking for when the article was greyed-out.  I did see that he had yet to reverse his attempts to ban mask-wearing and social distancing (with some cities and districts implementing their own rules).  Also that some hospitals had to create Covid overflow areas.

What kind of help was/is the governor asking for?

PD

[Mandryka]

This makes for interesting reading.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/uk/300380201/covid19-delta-variant-has-wrecked-hopes-of-uk-herd-immunity-warn-scientists

Would Australia do this after getting vaccination levels up to scratch? I'm not so sure.

Things look reasonably positive as far as hospitalisations go in the UK, but bear in mind all the data about the spread of the disease is problematic because it is test data, not incidence. I believe the next information on incidence will be published soon, Aug 17 maybe.

Anyway, it's early days, and we have the reopening of schools to look forward to,  as well as the colder weather meaning people spend more time inside.

That aside there is the issue of long covid, especially among the unvaccinated young, to think about. Who knows what the UK approach will mean in that respect?

[MusicTurner]

Canberra, a city of 400,000, closing down for 7 days because of 1 identified case. Well that, I think, does look like an over-reaction. Some massive testing should do, one would think. Australia lies very low as regards vaccinated people, 20%, but the fatality rate has also been comparatively low.

......

In DK, we're past 60% of totally vaccinated people, and 74% partly vaccinated. As it's been the case for some time, problems and sickness/hospitalizations are now mainly in the unvaccinated group younger than 40 years, and in certain, especially immigrant, areas. Yet, there's only around 100 hospitalized in the entire country, and fatalities are 0 or 1 on a daily basis. Teenagers are also being vaccinated to a higher degree now.

The official strategy will focus less on daily infection numbers, it's being said - which seems to be implicitly signalling an acceptance of a certain, permanent infection level within the foreseeable future. Vaccinations will be carried through to the highest degree possible, due to their obvious effects here, but it's still considered unlikely they'll soon be obligatory for all.

......

Today, a couple of very long interviews with a Danish expert engaged in the WHO investigations in China, complaining about opposition from some Chinese authorities, and not ruling out a lab fault resulting in the virus outbreak, though it must be pointed out, it's only one of 4 scenarios:

1. transmission directly from bat to a human
2. transmission indirectly via some product, from bat to human
3. transmission from bat to another animal, then to human
4. transmission via lab errors

The sickness was likely much more widespread, when the alleged Patient Zero got it. One important laboratory was moved on the 2nd December, which is a risky business. 200,000 local blood tests from that month haven't been investigated. In the main lab, they had apes in cages. The WHO team didn't get access to lab documents or tests. Overall, the lab possibility hasn't been investigated in a scientific way.

The interviews are of course in Danish. If interested, use Google translate.
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2021-08-12-ansat-paa-laboratorie-i-wuhan-kan-vaere-smittet-af-flagermus-som-den-foerste-siger
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/udland/2021-08-12-dansker-var-chef-for-whos-mission-til-wuhan-maaske-er-nogen-slet-ikke-interesseret

[Mandryka]

Canberra, a city of 400,000, closing down for 7 days because of 1 identified case. Well that, I think, does look like an over-reaction. Some massive testing should do, one would think. Australia lies very low as regards vaccinated people, 20%, but the fatality rate has also been comparatively low.

It's an interesting point because as far as I know the European and American experience has shown that massive testing is not an effective way to control delta. Countries with a low level of vaccination are very vulnerable.

[MusicTurner]

Massive testing, where all samples are diagnosed, is considered a very important part of the relatively successful Danish strategy. As far as I remember, it worked well in say Korea too. Delta is 95% here in DK, but the disease is less serious than before, and here we operate with areas on parish level, that can be closed down.

In the results from yesterday, the infection number was approaching close to 2% for the first time in many months, however - not the usual percentage between 0.8  to 1.6. But the R number is currently considered 1.0. It has changed between 0.9 - 1.3 for a long time. Closing down would need an incidence of 200 per 100,000 inhabitants, based on tests, until mid-July. But now it's 500, as a part of the general opening up policy. A nerdy source on local situations in municipalities etc. here: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa41b29149f24e20a4007a0c4e13db1d