Coronavirus thread

[mc ukrneal]

There are actually more. The WHO keeps a list as well, though I am not sure how often they update it.
https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/Novel-Coronavirus_Landscape_nCoV-4april2020.pdf?ua=1

[Mandryka]

+1

One newspaper today stated:

'Pubs to be closed until Christmas' !!!  

I wonder what think think is going to happen at Christmas which will make it possible for them to open. My feeling is that pubs and restaurants will be closed for a couple of years. Even in Sweden!

[MusicTurner]

  Thanks for the useful link. Yes, it currently lists around 60 projects world-wide. And it's good that there's a general openness in these matters.

  I've noticed that some of our leading scientists certainly aren't by definition up-to-date, when they make their statements, compared to the most recent, but serious media reports and problematizings. For example, some of them may speak about future, naturally gained immunity - without mentioning that some information points to that this is no longer considered guaranteed, also by the WHO.

  Obviously though, those people are also very busy with their own, daily work procedures, and they might not have sufficient information about media stories and staff to tell about international news.

[MusicTurner]

I wonder what they think is going to happen at Christmas which will make it possible for them to open. My feeling is that pubs and restaurants will be closed for a couple of years. Even in Sweden!

They are still open in Sweden these days, but 'social distancing' must take place at them, it is said.

Swedish press reports that rich foreigners now buy expensive air tickets to sample the Good Life there, during weekend breaks etc. But also, that they might bring virus back and forth.

[Rinaldo]

Coronavirus: 38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster

"Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings on the virus, calls to order protective gear were ignored and scientists' warnings fell on deaf ears. Failings in February may have cost thousands of lives."

[Karl Henning]

Reports suggest many have had coronavirus with no symptoms
By Marilynn Marchione Associated Press,Updated April 20, 2020

A flood of new research suggests that far more people have had the coronavirus without any symptoms, fueling hope that it will turn out to be much less lethal than originally feared.

While that's clearly good news, it also means it's impossible to know who around you may be contagious. That complicates decisions about returning to work, school and normal life.

In the last week, reports of silent infections have come from a homeless shelter in Boston, a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, pregnant women at a New York hospital, several European countries and California.

The head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 25% of infected people might not have symptoms. The vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. John Hyten, thinks it may be as high as 60% to 70% among military personnel.

None of these numbers can be fully trusted because they're based on flawed and inadequate testing, said Dr. Michael Mina of Harvard's School of Public Health.

Collectively, though, they suggest "we have just been off the mark by huge, huge numbers" for estimating total infections, he said.

Worldwide, more than 2.3 million infections and more than 160,000 deaths have been confirmed. The virus has caused nearly unprecedented economic and social harm since its existence was reported in early January.

Based on known cases, health officials have said the virus usually causes mild or moderate flu-like illness. Now evidence is growing that a substantial number of people may have no symptoms at all.

Scientists in Iceland screened 6% of its population to see how many had previously undetected infections and found that about 0.7% tested positive. So did 13% of a group at higher risk because of recent travel or exposure to someone sick.

Aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, where one crew member died from the virus, "the rough numbers are that 40 percent are symptomatic," said Vice Adm. Phillip Sawyer, deputy commander of naval operations. The ratio may change if more develop symptoms later, he warned.

In New York, a hospital tested all pregnant women coming in to deliver over a two-week period. Nearly 14% of those who arrived with no symptoms of coronavirus turned out to have it. Of the 33 positive cases, 29 had no symptoms when tested, although some developed them later.

Previously, tests on passengers and crew from the Diamond Princess cruise ship found nearly half who tested positive had no symptoms at the time. Researchers estimate that 18% of infected people never developed any.

These studies used tests that look for bits of the virus from throat and nose swabs, which can miss cases. Someone can test negative one day if there's not much virus to detect and then positive the next.

Symptoms also may not appear when someone is tested but turn up later. One Japanese study found more than half of those who had no symptoms when they tested positive later felt sick.

Better answers may come from newer tests that check blood for antibodies, substances the immune system makes to fight the virus. But the accuracy of these, too, is still to be determined.

On Friday, researchers reported results from antibody tests on 3,300 people in California's Santa Clara county: Between 1.5% and 2.8% have been infected, they claimed. That would mean 48,000 to 81,000 cases in the county — more than 50 times the number that have been confirmed.

The work has not been formally published or reviewed, but some scientists were quick to question it. Participants were recruited through Facebook ads, which would attract many people likely to be positive who have had symptoms and want to know if the coronavirus was the reason. Some neighborhoods also had way more participants than others, and "hot spots" within the county might have made infections seem more common than they are elsewhere.

Ships, maternity wards and single counties also don't provide data that can be used to generalize about what's happening elsewhere. And many of the figures have come from snapshots, not research on wide populations over time.

Antibody testing in particular needs to be done "in an unbiased approach" on groups of people that are representative of the geographic, social, racial and other conditions, Mina said.

The CDC and other groups plan such studies, and they could guide public health advice on returning to normal life for people in certain areas.

If infections are more widespread than previously understood, it's possible that more people have developed some level of immunity to the virus. That could stifle the spread through what's called herd immunity, but scientists caution that there is still much to learn about whether mild illnesses confer immunity and how long it might last.

It will probably be months before enough reliable testing has been done to answer those questions and others, including how widespread infections have been and the virus's true mortality rate, which has only been estimated so far.

"If they've all seen the virus before, then maybe you can relax in that neighborhood" and ease social distancing, Mina said. "We're not anywhere close where we need to be" on antibody testing to do that yet, he said.


AP writers Mike Stobbe in New York and Robert Burns and Lolita Baldor in Washington contributed to this report.

[Herman]

Coronavirus: 38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster

"Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings on the virus, calls to order protective gear were ignored and scientists' warnings fell on deaf ears. Failings in February may have cost thousands of lives."

What a nightmare. Prime Minister Johnson does not want to work on weekends, he's busy with snuggly days off with his pregnant fiancee, and is consumed with negotiations with his ex. And finally, because he never stopped shaking hands with every person he meets, he contracts the virus.

[arpeggio]

Best editorial I have seen so far: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/04/18/sally-jenkins-trump-coronavirus-testing-economy/

[Mandryka]

They are still open in Sweden these days, but 'social distancing' must take place at them, it is said.

Swedish press reports that rich foreigners now buy expensive air tickets to sample the Good Life there, during weekend breaks etc. But also, that they might bring virus back and forth.

I saw an interesting thing with a Swedish health expert where he talked about how the Swedes have managed to more or less control the disease without strong confinement legislation, because the people trust the government and so are more or less compliant - only restaurants proved too great a challenge, he said, and he expressed a hope that they'd be closed.

This is a far cry from Southern Europe. In France, the relation between people and government is full of distrust and contempt as far as I can see. In the UK we're maybe somewhere between France and Sweden.

[Irons]

What a nightmare. Prime Minister Johnson does not want to work on weekends, he's busy with snuggly days off with his pregnant fiancee, and is consumed with negotiations with his ex. And finally, because he never stopped shaking hands with every person he meets, he contracts the virus.

Fair play you know a lot more of the PM's private life then I do - not that I am a least bit interested.

[Irons]

I saw an interesting thing with a Swedish health expert where he talked about how the Swedes have managed to more or less control the disease without strong confinement legislation, because the people trust the government and so are more or less compliant - only restaurants proved too great a challenge, he said, and he expressed a hope that they'd be closed.

This is a far cry from Southern Europe. In France, the relation between people and government is full of distrust and contempt as far as I can see. In the UK we're maybe somewhere between France and Sweden.

We are, but it is a fine line. I believe the rules are more draconian in Spain and France. The Brits have mainly followed the rules out of self-preservation (much to the surprise of the powers to be) but it would not take a lot for it all to kick off. There is talk of the over 70's, of which I am one, continuing the lockdown for a further 18 months, with a lifting of restrictions for the rest. That will not go down at all well. If the government think, for example at Christmas, the oldies will miss out seeing their family, then they need to think again.

[Herman]

Fair play you know a lot more of the PM's private life then I do - not that I am a least bit interested.

The snuggly weekends etc were in the London Times article.

[André]

Coronavirus: 38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster

"Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings on the virus, calls to order protective gear were ignored and scientists' warnings fell on deaf ears. Failings in February may have cost thousands of lives."

Downing Street's press release (last paragraph) is the kind of stuff we're likely to hear in the coming weeks throughout the world's capitals...

[MusicTurner]

I saw an interesting thing with a Swedish health expert where he talked about how the Swedes have managed to more or less control the disease without strong confinement legislation, because the people trust the government and so are more or less compliant - only restaurants proved too great a challenge, he said, and he expressed a hope that they'd be closed.

This is a far cry from Southern Europe. In France, the relation between people and government is full of distrust and contempt as far as I can see. In the UK we're maybe somewhere between France and Sweden.

Their relative number of fatalities is much bigger than the rest of Scandinavia and Germany, doubling them at least, or more.
There's been major problems at retirement homes also.

Some people think that within months, Sweden will then have fewer fatalities than their neighbours, however - due to the 'herd policy'.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Indeed. When the NHS were quite literally there for the government, pulling Boris Johnson through his scrape with Covid 19, it is even more galling to see how pathetically they have been repaid. Why for example are British companies not enthusiastically being taken up on their offer of provision of more desperately needed PPE? Is it incompetence, power battles in the wake of Johnson's temporary back seat status? It's a mystery and a complete injustice to those on the frontline facing this frightening virus.

And on the subject of front lines, your analogy with Russian soldiers in WWI is a very telling one!


Optimistic!

Are not businesses in the UK able to help make things?  And/or individuals?  In the States, 'even' high schoolers who can make things (like those plastic face shields via a 3D printer).   

[Pohjolas Daughter]

A pandemic necessarily requires our response as a polity.  I can't think of anything more political, except perhaps climate change.  I suppose we could talk about policy only in the abstract, but that strikes me as a kind of weird kabuki theater to engage in as people die around us.

What I think is wrong though and what I was responding to is being unkind/rude to other persons on this forum.  Yes, it's fine and certainly fair and right to disagree and certainly is and should be allowed, but doing one's best to be polite and kind to other people does matter to me.

Best wishes,

PD

Edit:  Am I alone in this?  I hope not.

[greg]

The mainstream is catching on sloooooooooooowly that there is a strong possibility that the origins are from the lab (accidental leak). There was also a recent Washington Post article about that. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V60ABj75-FQ

I also heard from somewhere (don't remember where it was) that the people in the area of the market were interviewed and mentioned that it wasn't even selling bat meat at the time.

Well, I'll try to remain uncritical of the slowness and be glad at least they are starting to focus on this. As long as they don't blindly follow the official CCP narrative but instead consider other likely causes then that is a good thing, since we all know just about everything that comes from the CCP is a lie.

And what's funny is asking the people that worked in the lab directly- now who in the world would openly admit to that? Of course they aren't going to admit their lack of following safety protocol is the root cause of over 100,000 people dying and crashing the world economy. 

[JBS]

  What I think is wrong though and what I was responding to is being unkind/rude to other persons on this forum.  Yes, it's fine and certainly fair and right to disagree and certainly is and should be allowed, but doing one's best to be polite and kind to other people does matter to me.

Best wishes,

PD

Edit:  Am I alone in this?  I hope not.

You are not alone in this.

[Karl Henning]

You are not alone in this.

+ 1

[SimonNZ]

The mainstream is catching on sloooooooooooowly that there is a strong possibility that the origins are from the lab (accidental leak). There was also a recent Washington Post article about that. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V60ABj75-FQ

I also heard from somewhere (don't remember where it was) that the people in the area of the market were interviewed and mentioned that it wasn't even selling bat meat at the time.

Well, I'll try to remain uncritical of the slowness and be glad at least they are starting to focus on this. As long as they don't blindly follow the official CCP narrative but instead consider other likely causes then that is a good thing, since we all know just about everything that comes from the CCP is a lie.

And what's funny is asking the people that worked in the lab directly- now who in the world would openly admit to that? Of course they aren't going to admit their lack of following safety protocol is the root cause of over 100,000 people dying and crashing the world economy. 

Not sure how to respond to this post politely. So I'll just ask: what Washington Post article? Are you referring to this?:

What caused the coronavirus? A skeptical take on the theories about the outbreak's Chinese origin.