Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

I don't understand the UK's commitment to AstraZeneca.

They're not. But they had it and so used it.

I've not seen any claims that delta variant has R0 as high as 8. I recall seeing claims that alpha is 2.5 and delta is 4.5, but that number is dependent on people's behavior. I.e., perhaps we are not going back to totally normal behavior yet.

Well everyone says it's more than 4. And if it's true that the vaccines reduce transmissibility by 75% . . .

If we could get vaccine into everyone the pandemic would recede. Perhaps the virus would not be extinguished, but it would be reduced to an endemic nuisance like the flu.

Possibly not, because of long covid. It also appears to be less seasonal than flu.

[Biffo]

Restrictions in the UK have already been abandoned by large numbers of people, if they ever bothered with them in the first place. Yesterday Bournemouth beaches and pier were jam-packed with people. When this happened before we were told it didn't matter too much as everyone was outside. This might be true but it doesn't apply to the overcrowded train (standing room only) arriving from London.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I think Mandryka is making the valid point better to bite the bullet now in the high summer then later when other respiratory aliments take hold. Due to lockdown and other measures to fight Covid the population is going to be extremely vulnerable come the winter months. Speaking personally last winter was the first time in my life I have not succumbed to "man flue" otherwise known as the common cold. I have a feeling a price is going to be paid further down the line for this reprieve. As an asthma sufferer, albeit not too bad and there are many worse off, this has to be a consideration.   

So sorry to hear that you have to deal with asthma Irons.  I have another friend in her early 70's who has it too (has to use an inhaler).  Perhaps in terms of things like common colds (but also pertaining to other viruses), one tiny positive to come out of all of this horribleness is that hopefully more of us are taking the advice to wash your hands more often and well and mind yourself re touching eyes, mouth and nose when out in public places, and maybe also to be mindful of how you are feeling to protect not just you but in terms of passing along 'bugs' to others?  *Years ago when I visited Japan, I was surprised to see the occasional person with a mask on.  I learned from my friend that they did that not to protect themselves from anything, but to protect others.  I was duly impressed by their respect for society as a whole being more important than individual rights.

*This was over 20 years ago.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Restrictions in the UK have already been abandoned by large numbers of people, if they ever bothered with them in the first place. Yesterday Bournemouth beaches and pier were jam-packed with people. When this happened before we were told it didn't matter too much as everyone was outside. This might be true but it doesn't apply to the overcrowded train (standing room only) arriving from London.

Eek! Fingers crossed for all of you.

I read a bit earlier today that a few athletes in Tokyo have tested positive for Covid....and the Olympics are due to start in 5 days.  The games will be very strange this year as no spectators allowed.  Apparently, Novak has decided to go (said that he was 50/50 due to no spectators).  Dan Evans is off of Team GB (tested positive for Covid), so Jamie Murray will now be going (playing doubles) and his younger brother Andy will be defending his gold medal.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/57844406

PD

[T. D.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-18/canada-passes-u-s-in-covid-19-vaccinations-after-slow-start

People with two doses near 50% as supply problem is solved
Surveys show greater willingness to get jab in Canada

[Karl Henning]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-18/canada-passes-u-s-in-covid-19-vaccinations-after-slow-start

People with two doses near 50% as supply problem is solved
Surveys show greater willingness to get jab in Canada

Neither of us is really surprised.

[Que]

With the Alpha virus, herd immunity (R <1) was estimated to occur when 60% of the population was immune. With the Delta variant which is much more contagious, the Danish health authorities have calculated that more than 80% of the population must be immune to keep R below 1. And here the coverage of the vaccines also must be taken into account, so that if a vaccine covers only 90%, somewhat more of the population must be vaccinated to get a sufficient degree of herd immunity.This may be impossible to achieve.

The calculations are complicated by the fact, that vaccinated people may contract the virus and spread it to others - albeit probably to a lesser degree than unvaccinated people -also even if they have no symptoms themselves.

So if we can't stop the coronavirus our efforts must be directed towards the prevention of manifest disease (Covid19). So much more reason to get everybody vaccinated.

Good points, and I don't rule out that group immunity cannot be reached. But we could get very close. In that case some additional measures/restrictions will have to stay in place to keep the reproduction factor below 1 until the virus will have virtually died out.
I see a New Zealand scenario at the horizon: travel restrictions and monitoring to keep new infections out, combined with vigorous track & tracing to counter local pop ups of the virus.

No reason to throw our hands in the air, like the UK govt does. On the contrary: certain restrictions, but not all, will have to be continued for a prolonged period of time.

[prémont]

Good points, and I don't rule out that group immunity cannot be reached. But we could get very close. In that case some additional measures/restrictions will have to stay in place to keep the reproduction factor below 1 until the virus will have virtually died out.
I see a New Zealand scenario at the horizon: travel restrictions and monitoring to keep new infections out, combined with vigorous track & tracing to counter local pop ups of the virus.

No reason to throw our hands in the air, like the UK govt does. On the contrary: certain restrictions, but not all, will have to be continued for a prolonged period of time.

This precisely covers my opinion, and dare I say, that it is the only rational way to handle the corona situation now? And for the same reason I am - like you - sceptical about the British open-up strategy, even if other parts of the world may be more threatening as to global health.

[Mandryka]

Thoughts on the UK

There are four vectors pulling in different directions -- schools closing and vaccine and natural immunity on the one hand, and vaccines waning and freedom from NPIs on the other. The gamble is that the impact of schools closing will be enough to slow down the growth caused by removing NPIs. And that vaccines won't wane significantly before boosters can be gotten into people's arms.

They will understand the effect of schools reopening by the start of September, by observing Scotland, the schools closed earlier and will open earlier there. By that time they will have a better handle on how naturally cautious people are.

I think people here are tending to exaggerate the health risks, because they can always introduce NPIs again, and they have a reasonable understanding of their effect. If we don't get enough immunity in the community by hook or by crook, that's what they'll do.

The experiment, I think, is precisely there: can they get community immunity fast enough? And can they maintain it fast enough?

Is it worth doing, this experiment? I can't say, I don't know.

What I feel is that it's kind of rococo. I guess really complex problems like this epidemic demand really complex solutions. There's no way to cut the Gaudian knot.

[prémont]

The experiment, I think...

Yes, an experiment, and a very risky one. We have seen otherwhere (even in my own country Nov.-Dec. 2021) the effect of re-introducing restrictions too late. This is because the warning light often turns on too late, unless you do tons of reliable corona tests and frequent gen-sequencing as well as infection detection, all of which are very expensive. We have learned, that this is none-the-less necessary, and it is essential for our only partial re-opening.

It would be more rational to postpone larger re-openings until as many as possible had been vaccinated. And the degree of re-opening should be governed by the number of vaccinated individuals.

How long time the effect of the vaccines will last, nobody knows, but at the moment the estimate is at least one year. Probably boosters will become actual within foreseeable time. To rely even partially upon natural immunity would be stright suicidal, which is well-known by now..

The closing/ or opening of schools has in my country been shown to exert little effect upon the virus spread, so you may expect a growing epidemy when opening that much up, even if the schools are closed. Que has already posted about the most important risks of a growing epidemy (other than more morbidity and deaths), which are the emergence of more agressive mutants and the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains. This is the real reasons of the global health risk, but as I wrote above: Other parts of the world are more risky than GB in this respect.

[The new erato]

Gordian knot I guess.....

[Mandryka]

Gordian knot I guess.....

Gaudian exists apparently, relating to Gaudi, the architect. But it makes me think of a gaudi, a sort of fund raising banquet for former members of Oxford colleges.

[Mandryka]

It would be more rational to postpone larger re-openings until as many as possible had been vaccinated. And the degree of re-opening should be governed by the number of vaccinated individuals.

Why?


Here's an interesting article on the issues surrounding vaccinating children

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1687/rr-8

[MusicTurner]

On the other hand, an increasing number of studies seem to indicate long-term sickness effects among children who've then had the virus, lasting at least a year.

It's a difficult issue.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Heard this morning that, so far anyway, 71 people have tested positive for Covid at the Tokyo Olympics.  From what I understand, it's a combo of a handful of athletes and various contractors and workers there.

PD

[prémont]

Why?

To minimize the risk  of uncontrolled virus spread.

The aim of vaccinating children is of course to add to herd immunity and thereby protect those, who don't experience equally mild Covid19 courses as children do.

I can well see the rationale for letting children get Covid19, but it should not happen experimentally at a time of an uncontrolled epidemic.

[T. D.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/music-festival-in-holland-leads-to-over-1000-covid-infections.html

[Karl Henning]

Mask mandates make a return — along with controversy

[MusicTurner]

Seems that the growth stopped here in DK, there's been a somewhat lower level for several days now.

Would be nice with a positive development, however locally. 46.3 % of the population is now fully vaccinated.

[prémont]

Seems that the growth stopped here in DK, there's been a somewhat lower level for several days now.

Would be nice with a positive development, however locally. 46.3 % of the population is now fully vaccinated.

But fewer are being tested and the the positive percentage increases, so the situation is not entirely reassuring so far.