Coronavirus thread

[Que]

Is that profile also true of the people who decline the vaccine, as opposed to the people who demonstrate on the streets about it? I mean are Dutch vaccine refuses made up of the poorly educated, the disenfranchised, the young?

It appears there are roughly three groups:

1) Low education & young - others with low education that are older seem to trust the govt.
2) The affluent upper (middle) class hippy-dippies. The do gooders with luxurious life styles that think they live environmentally friendly and revere Rufolf Steiner.
3) The traditional anti vaxxers for religious reasons. Though a lot of ultra orthodox protestants emigrated to for instance the US (good luck with that...), we still have some left. Even though the good Lord hasn't protected them from the occasional polio outbreak in the past, they stick to their opposition against vaccination. And because this is a small group the govt has traditionally let them be.

So what we see here is: a lack of trust in government, a lack of trust in (convential) medical science, or trust in a higher power.

[Que]

I haven't been there so I can't comment. Your being Dutch, possibly even an eyewitness, puts you in a much better position to know. I can't help noticing, though, that in December 1989, after anti-Communist protests and riots broke out in the city of Timișoara and the police and the military opened fire, injuring and killing hundreds,  Ceaușescu appeared on TV and announced that hooligans devastated the city. 

Well, I can't help but notice that sometimes - and in properly functioning democracies (you can exclude the US here...) most of the times - riots are actually conducted by hooligans.

[Mandryka]

It appears there are roughly three groups:

1) Low education & young - others with low education that are older seem to trust the govt.
2) The affluent upper (middle) class hippy-dippies. The do gooders with luxurious life styles that think they live environmentally friendly and revere Rufolf Steiner.
3) The traditional anti vaxxers for religious reasons. Though a lot of ultra orthodox protestants emigrated to for instance the US (good luck with that...), we still have some left. Even though the good Lord hasn't protected them from the occasional polio outbreak in the past, they stick to their opposition against vaccination. And because this is a small group the govt has traditionally let them be.

So what we see here is: a lack of trust in government, a lack of trust in (convential) medical science, or trust in a higher power.

What about pregnant women? And people who decline the vaccine on behalf of their teenage kids? These are significant elements in the UK.

[MusicTurner]

There's a 2B (or 4) too - neo-liberal, usually relatively young and ~immortal people, who are sure of their own strength and path to success in society, not at least economically, and hostile to the state generally in relation to their project. But they're mostly not the types engaging in demonstrations that get rough.

[MusicTurner]

Florestan, Lukashenko and Putin have been using such language about opponents too. But the Dutch multi-party government coalition probably doesn't represent the same monolithic, long-lasting dictatorship ruthlessness.

Your priorities are ... unorthodox. What is the alternative suggestion for Romania then, considering the average of 302 fatalities per day for a week in population of less than 20 mio, a vaccination rate of 37%, and the medical services asking for international help.

[Mandryka]

Florestan, Lukashenko and Putin have been using such language about opponents too. But the Dutch multi-party government coalition probably doesn't represent the same monolithic, long-lasting dictatorship ruthlessness.

Your priorities are ... unorthodox. What is the alternative suggestion for Romania then, considering the average of 302 fatalities per day for a week in population of less than 20 mio, a vaccination rate of 37%, and the medical services asking for international help.

I just note in passing that neither Austria nor Holland appears to be in such a bad place, if you look at the % vaccinated figure. But that brute figure could be hiding a lot of worrying details. 

[Que]

What about pregnant women? And people who decline the vaccine on behalf of their teenage kids? These are significant elements in the UK.

Pregnant wome have indeed been reluctant out of concern for their unborn baby. And they are now targeted by special information campaigns. But in numbers how can this be significant? Teenagers do not always agree with their parents, and under Dutch law they are allowed to make their own decision. Again, in numbers this is hardly significant.

[MusicTurner]

I just note in passing that neither Austria nor Holland appears to be in such a bad place, if you look at the % vaccinated figure. But that brute figure could be hiding a lot of worrying details.

Concerning Romania's low vaccination rate, it's not that vaccines aren't available, or governmental opposition, at least on a national level. It's due to vaccine scepticism, and apparently some secludedness/slowness of rural areas.

[Florestan]

Your priorities are ... unorthodox. What is the alternative suggestion for Romania then, considering the average of 302 fatalities per day for a week in population of less than 20 mio, a vaccination rate of 37%, and the medical services asking for international help.

I'm glad you brought up the case of Romania. Let me explain you what is going here in some details that probably the Danish / Dutch / whatever media don't mention. 

I'll begin by saying that the current situation is the result of several factors, first and foremost the government grossly mismanaging the crisis and the bad state of the healthcare system long before the pandemic.

Let's start with the latter. Long before Covid, most hospitals were decades old, underfunded, underequipped, understaffed and overcrowded. Long before Covid, many people in hospitals died not because of whatever treatable disease they had but because of lack of drugs, medical equipment and, especially, nosocomial infections --- which at some point the media reported at a rate of one p. Long before Covid, hospitals lacked personnel, because wages being very low and conditions being dire, many doctors and nurses emmigrated to Western Europe. Long before Covid, many hospitals, especially in small towns and rural areas, were simply shut down, thus depriving whole regions of any specialized healthcare other than general practitioners, who were often one doctor in charge of several small towns and rural communes. In short, long before Covid the Romanian healthcare system was disastruous --- to the point that presidents, prime-ministers, politicians (including health ministers) and businessmen, ie the powerful and the rich, went abroad for treatment.

Now, let's turn to governmental action.

For better or worse, at the beginning of June, 2021 the number of recorded infections plummeted, the number of severe cases plummeted, the number of critical, ICU cases plummeted, Covid-dedicated hispitals were mostly empty and many doctors openly demanded that they (the hospitals, that is) be opened again for other diseases. (FYI, in 2020 an unprecedented percentage of roughly 65% of registered cancer patients died, a monstrosity clearly attributable to the fact that they'd been denied hospital access and treatment.)

The president and the prime-minister then quickly jumped on TV channels and announced live: "The vaccination campaign was a huge success! We have basically stopped the pandemic!". The vaccination rate back then was about 30%.

During the whole months between June and September the government did absolutely nothing in order to prepare for the fourth wave; zero anti-virals and ventilators bought, zero ICU supplementary beds --- nothing at all but triumphalist rhetoric as noted above. What they did instead was allowing huge music festival, tens of thousands of attendees, to take place in several cities; they allowed the beaches to be flooded by people; they basically lifted all restrictions; and the main ruling party organized in September a huge, triumphalistic congress, 5000 attendees.

Now given all of the above, I ask you: (1) what else was to be expected other than what followed? and (2) can you blame the people for not trusting the selfsame government when, late in September, they began a furibund campaign to convince people to get vaccinated? The selfsame government that declared the vaccination succesful and the pandemic stopped suddenly changed position and began to coerce people into vaccination (there are several restrictions for the unvaccinated, more on that below). You might find this normal, but I don't.

Anyway, during the last week the numbers plummeted again. The situation in Romania right now while I'm typing is far better than it was a month ago and probably far better than in Austria or The Netherlands. And, according to the most respected Romanian epidemiologist, if to the currently around 40% vaccination rate one adds all people who recovered from Covid (yours truly, my wife and in-laws included) or who didn't even know they had it because they were asymptomatic, and therefore have acquired natural immunity, the real rate of immunity is possibly around 60 %.

Now, let's address the restrictions themselves. In order to understand my position and that of the vast majority of Romanians, you should keep in mind that Romania is a country in which for decades long the government tried to make people happy by force, for decades long the most basic rights and freedoms were trampled under foot under the common good pretext and denied especially to those who did not conform to the official ideology. We had a bloody revolution in which people died in order that never again the government could do that. The Romanian Constitution and several ordinary laws expressly prohibit some rights from being suspended under any circumstance whatsoever, among them the right to work (which is now under threat by the Covid Pass) the right to assembly and the right to free speech. Therefore any and all regulations which in any way suspend and restrict them are unconstitutional and illegal. Furthermore, the Law of Public Health expressly states that no medical treatment is mandatory and must be administered only with the free and informed consent of the patient. Therefore, any and all forcing of vaccination on people who do not consent to be vaccinated (for instance by making vaccination a condition for being allowed to work) is illegal. For decades we have had a bad, corrupt and tyrannical government that tried to make us happy by force and against our will; now we have a bad and corrupt government that tries to make us healthy by force and against our will and which is increasingly tyrannical in their actions. Is it any wonder that people distrust them massively?

As for the vaccines themselves, their safety and efficiency, their being thoroughly and properly tested --- I will refrain from commenting on these issues, although my opinion is fully formed and based on (1) publicly available scientific data and information, including but not limited to, such sources as the WHO, CDC and FDA, and (2) logic and common sense. I will just humbly presume that having known me for some long years you guys will not accuse me of being an uneducated, irrational, anti-vaxxer loon. (FWIW, my 8-yo son is vaccinated with all mandatory vaccines plus several of the recommended ones.)

There, hope this helps.

Best wishes to all of you and stay safe!

[André]

I just note in passing that neither Austria nor Holland appears to be in such a bad place, if you look at the % vaccinated figure. But that brute figure could be hiding a lot of worrying details.

Indeed, there can be wild disparities within communities, urban vs rural areas, also socio-economic, ethnic, educational factors working for or against vaccination/health measures. A countrywide 64% vaccination rate can hide disparities and potential hot spots for the virus.

[MusicTurner]

Florestan, thank you for those details, including the criticism of former government policies.

As regards the virus situation in Austria and the Netherlands, it's better regarding fatalities (average daily in the latest week 44 and going up, and 29 going up, population sizes 9 and 18 mio), concerning further details, one would have to investigate.

[Florestan]

Florestan, thank you for those details, including the criticism of former government policies.

You're welcome.

The problem is, the former government is going to be half of the future government.

I will state it bluntly: for perfectly rational and reasonable historical reasons trust in government have always been low in Romania, even prior to the Communist takeover but nowadays it is probably at the historical lowest. I have myself lost any trust whatsoever in any single one of the mainstream political parties and I will never ever again vote for any of them.

[MusicTurner]

I suppose distrust in medical expertise on a local level is intertwined with the disbelief in authorities then, cf. for example the collective pro-vaccine appeal from Bucharest doctors from October 13th.

[Mandryka]

Pregnant wome have indeed been reluctant out of concern for their unborn baby. And they are now targeted by special information campaigns. But in numbers how can this be significant? Teenagers do not always agree with their parents, and under Dutch law they are allowed to make their own decision. Again, in numbers this is hardly significant.

Not significant in numbers probably, but it shows something very significant -- pregnant women and parents are not groups which can easily be be dismissed, pilloried and vilified in a populist way. No-one's going to say of pregnant women "Anti-vaxx morons! Time to round 'em an put 'em in camps."  They show that we have large numbers of people in definable social categories which are making decisions based on bad information -- and that's a failure of something -- government probably.

[Florestan]

the collective pro-vaccine appeal from Bucharest doctors from October 13th.

What is your source for that? I live (mostly) in Bucharest, I read newspapers and watch TV channels daily, both mainstream and independent, yet I have never heard of it before.

[Florestan]

Pregnant wome have indeed been reluctant out of concern for their unborn baby. And they are now targeted by special information campaigns.

Pregnancy

There is limited experience with use of Comirnaty in pregnant women. Animal studies do not indicate
direct or indirect harmful effects with respect to pregnancy, embryo/foetal development, parturition or
post-natal development (see section 5.3). Administration of Comirnaty in pregnancy should only be
considered when the potential benefits outweigh any potential risks for the mother and foetus


Source: https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/product-information/comirnaty-epar-product-information_en.pdf


Pregnancy

There is limited experience with use of Spikevax in pregnant women. Animal studies do not indicate
direct or indirect harmful effects with respect to pregnancy, embryo/foetal development, parturition or
post-natal development (see section 5.3). Administration of Spikevax in pregnancy should only be
considered when the potential benefits outweigh any potential risks for the mother and foetus.

Source: https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/product-information/spikevax-previously-covid-19-vaccine-moderna-epar-product-information_en.pdf

[Mandryka]

Indeed, there can be wild disparities within communities, urban vs rural areas, also socio-economic, ethnic, educational factors working for or against vaccination/health measures. A countrywide 64% vaccination rate can hide disparities and potential hot spots for the virus.

I was thinking more of age. One strength of the UK is that there is a very high vaccination rate among older cohorts -- i.e. the most vulnerable age groups. So here a 70% vaccination rate translates into excellent level of protection against severe illness because it is in fact 90%+  vaccinated for those who are most likely to get severely ill. I don't know what the data for vaccination rates by age looks like in other European countries.

[MusicTurner]

What is your source for that? I live (mostly) in Bucharest, I read newspapers and watch TV channels daily, both mainstream and independent, yet I have never heard of it before.

I don't know the media situation in Romania, but normally such an appeal should be told about, at least in some media. Sources:
apnews.com, web article October 13th:
"Romanian doctors issue 'cry of despair' amidst virus surge" , by Stephen McGrath.

medicalnewstoday.com, web article October 29th: "Covid-19 in Romania - Doctors plea for help in open letter", by Erika Watts.

[Florestan]

To give you a striking example of Romanian politics.

The Covid Pass bill, submitted by the current, caretaker National Liberal Party government (NLP being a party within EPP) was killed in the Senate by the Social-Democratic Party (member of the PES), yet not, as one would have hoped, as a matter of principle, but as a blackmailing tool in order to force the the NL to ally themselves with the SD --- and now that the alliance is virtually agreed upon, lo and behold! the SDP announced they will vote the bill in the Chamber of Deputies, albeit in a modified form --- and I hasten to add, modified for better and rationally, a thing that only 2 years ago I would have never said about the SDP.   

And you want me to trust such parties and the government thereof with handling my and my family's health? Over my dead body! 

[Florestan]

I don't know the media situation in Romania, but normally such an appeal should be told about, at least in some media. Sources:
apnews.com, web article October 13th:
"Romanian doctors issue 'cry of despair' amidst virus surge" , by Stephen McGrath.

medicalnewstoday.com, web article October 29th: "Covid-19 in Romania - Doctors plea for help in open letter", by Erika Watts.

Thank you for the link. I was able to identify the original Romanian link: https://www.cmb.ro/strigat-de-disperare/.

The appeal is signed by the President of the Bucharest College of Physicians "on behalf of its Executive Bureau".

This means nothing. I can think of several instances of certified members of the BCP who have dissenting, if not downright opposing views, one of them being my very own GP, a retired army doctor with the rank of colonel.

Be it as it might, I tell you once again and in all honesty that, although I consider myself a very informed person, I have never ever heard of this appeal before --- and be it noted that most TV channels and newspapers lose no opportunity to promote vaccination as the sole and only way to end the pandemic.

Btw, I have a question for you all.

Ever since the pandemic started, no relatives or friends have been allowed to visit the patients, even if patients were admitted in hospitals for diseases other than Covid-19. For instance, my father-in-law was twice in hospital since March, 2020 for a disease not even remotely related to Covid-19 and he was tested negatively every single time they tested him --- and nobody, not even his wife and daughter, was allowed to visit him. Total quarantine, due of Covid-19 pandemic. Yet each evening on every TV channels we are presented with reporters freely filming on hospital locations, mostly Covid-19 ICUs (!), interviewing people which are visibly in distress, some connected to ventilators. How ethical and humane is this?