Europe at War

[Florestan]

Mark Galeotti, a fairly well-studied observer, considers for example the PM Mishustin, an economist, and the defense minister Shoigu fairly moderate, Shoigu being a possible scheduled succesor for Putin. I've heard Shoigu say some very militant stuff though, but on the other hand he knows about the cost of this invasion, and he looked uncomfortable at the notorious public council meeting.

A Romanian commentator stated he was appalled by Shoygu's announcement that he has executed Putin's order to place the nuclear forces in state of alert. Now, what did he expect, Shoygu to announce that he has no effing intention to obey the order?

[Todd]

A Romanian commentator stated he was appalled by Shoygu's announcement that he has executed Putin's order to place the nuclear forces in state of alert. Now, what did he expect, Shoygu to announce that he has no effing intention to obey the order?

Apparently, the inner circle are on the cusp of ousting Putin, so a public rebuke of Putin would have been reasonable.

[MusicTurner]

(...)


Like who?

This would probably take days to study ...

[Todd]

This would probably take days to study ...

Days, that's it?

[MusicTurner]

Days, that's it?

I know you are busy.

[Florestan]

Apparently, the inner circle are on the cusp of ousting Putin

I think it's not impossible that if Putin really ordered a nuclear attack, they might decide he's gone too far. But to expect that such a move be announced publicly is the top of foolishness.

[Todd]

I know you are busy.

I was hoping to tap the wisdom of expert Kremlinologists.

[Que]

True. A big-scale shift. I watched a German debate between politicians yesterday evening, and they were without illusions. Except Die Linke party, has some restraint.

I'm going to throw in some predictions:
1. Sweden and Finland will join NATO.
2. The EU will develop a common defence structure. Conveniently, the biggest stumbling block - the UK - has removed itself from the equation.
3. The EU will come down hard on Switzerland as a refuge for dirty money.
4. The Ukraine will eventually join the EU - and NATO.
5. European will downscale its energy dependency of Russia at an accelerated pace. Nuclear energy will back on the map.
6. The involvement of the US with Europe will continue to decline. Instead it will focus its efforts on the Pacific and China's efforts to dominate South East Asia. India might align with the US to stop China.

[Todd]

I'm going to throw in some predictions:
1. Sweden and Finland will join NATO.
2. The EU will develop a common defence structure. Conveniently, the biggest stumbling block - the UK - has removed itself from the equation.
3. The EU will come down hard on Switzerland as a refuge for dirty money.
4. The Ukraine will eventually join the EU - and NATO.
5. European will downscale its energy dependency of Rusdia at an accelerated pace. Nuclear energy will back on the map.
6. The involvement of the US with Europe will continue to decline. Instead it will focus its efforts on the Pacific and China's efforts to dominate South East Asia. India might align with the US to stop China.

What is the timeline for these events?

[MusicTurner]

Switzerland will join sanctions, it was just announced. Maybe they sense the pressure. Maybe it's not enough regarding their banks.

[Spotted Horses]

Needless to say, there are many other, more obscure names (to the Western public), and it could very likely be one of those in stead, I guess.

We can look at recent Soviet/Russian history. Stalin died of natural causes, those surrounding him were too terrified to be be involved to even remove him from his house to take him to the hospital.

Khruschev was removed by a conspiracy of his subordinates. When he returned from foreign travel he was confronted by Brezhnev and told that it had been decided that he would be replaced. Khruschev spend the rest of his life in a small flat in Moscow with a modest stipend. Khruschev led a miserable life thereafter, but took some pride in moving the country back from the tyranny of Stalin. He was said to have remarked "I have done my work. Can you imagine someone telling Stalin that his services were no longer required. There wouldn't even be a wet spot on the floor."

Shortly before legislation liberalizing the Soviet union was to be voted on Soviet military hardliners took Gorbachev hostage at his dacha and announced that he would be replaced. It didn't stick. Popular support was not with the originators of the putsch, Boris Yeltsin, then Mayer of Moscow, supported Gorbachev (astride a tank shelling the parliament building) and Gorbachev returned a diminished figure. The trend started by Gorbachev continued and the Soviet Union was dissolved. Yeltsin ended up leading the new Russian Federation.

Putin has a different standing. He controls the military, police and sham courts. The Oligarchs kick up a portion of their profits to him and in return he protects them. His popular support comes from his control of information available to ordinary Russians. Not clear what semi-legitimate mechanism of removal is most likely to succeed. If the Oligarchs start losing money they might stop supporting him and look for someone to take his place. Putin could retaliate by having them rounded up an put in jail for "tax evasion," or whatever is convenient. Then he would endanger his own revenue stream. The Military might rebel. High government officials might turn on him. The Duma might vote to reverse the various legislation making him a de-facto Tsar. All of these groups are packed with Putin loyalists, so things would have to be really bad for them to think they could try to replace Putin and survive. If Putin loses popular support it would make whatever semi-legitimate mechanism is employed more likely to succeed.

We have to remember that when Putin took power he was a non-entity that no one had every heard of. He shrewdly build his power base by gaining the support of the oligarchs and manufacturing the second Chechen crisis which led to a Russian military success.

He could be murdered, but I doubt he would make himself vulnerable, and someone worse might come next. It would be nice if his control of popular opinion could be broken and Russia could become a messy, chaotic democracy like Ukraine.

[Florestan]

1. Sweden and Finland will join NATO.

Ukraine's NATO membership was not even unofficially on the table when Putin invaded them. What do you thnk he'll do when Finland and Sweden officially apply for NATO membership?

[Todd]

Ukraine's NATO membership was not even unofficially on the table when Putin invaded them. What do you thnk he'll do when Finland and Sweden officially apply for NATO membership?

That would depend on which NATO members reject the applications, as surely some will.

[Scion7]

Btw, your map is just as revisionist as Putin's map. If I reported it to the mods, they'd surely ask you to remove it.   

Now, old boy, didn't you go to your history classes? 
That's from a historical atlas by Rand McNally.

[Florestan]

Now, old boy, didn't you go to your history classes? 
That's from a historical atlas by Rand McNally.

So what? Putin too can find a map of the Russian Empire in a historical atlas by a prestigious publishing house which includes Ukraine, Finland, the Baltic States and half of Poland.

You're right, though, in that not the map itself is revisionist, but its use as an avatar. But don't worry, I'm not going to report it to the moderators. If I had been enraged about it (as I suppose you expected me to be...) I'd have done it long ago. 

[Florestan]

I think it's not impossible that if Putin really ordered a nuclear attack, they might decide he's gone too far.

I wonder what a professional psychologist specialized in body language would make of this.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I wonder what a professional psychologist specialized in body language would make of this.

Is that perhaps some glares from a few of his officers who have either had their funds frozen or perhaps are getting grief from those who are in that position and who have been asking them "Why is this taking so long?" or something like "Why are we doing this?!"

Meant to add that I am delighted to see the latest sanctions and support from the European community.  Heartbroken though to hear of over 500,000 refugees and pictures of the destruction in Ukraine and all of horrors of war.

PD

[Florestan]

Is that perhaps some glares from a few of his officers who have either had their funds frozen or perhaps are getting grief from those who are in that position and who have been asking them "Why is this taking so long?" or something like "Why are we doing this?!"

Actually, they are the two most important military commanders after Commander-in-Chief Putin. On the right, Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense. On the left, Valery Gerasimnov, Chief of the General Staff. The picture was taken exactly when Putin asked them to place the nuclear missiles in a state of alert.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Actually, they are the two most important military commanders after Commander-in-Chief Putin. On the right, Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense. On the left, Valery Gerasimnov, Chief of the General Staff. The picture was taken exactly when Putin asked them to place the nuclear missiles in a state of alert.

Wow!  Thanks for providing the back-story for me.  I had heard earlier about the nuclear state of alert.  Would love to know what was going on in their heads and the conversation that took place!

PD

[Florestan]

Wow!  Thanks for providing the back-story for me.  I had heard earlier about the nuclear state of alert.  Would love to know what was going on in their heads and the conversation that took place!

What was going on in their heads nobody can know, but what conversation are you talking about? From the video footage it can be seen that Shoigu lowered his head and said "Sir, yes, Sir!" or something like that and that was all.