The unimportant news thread

[Todd]

You say president, I say sultan . . .

[Todd]

Trudeau is really just Trump North?

[Todd]

DOD sends Thanksgiving condolences to family of US soldier killed in Syria.  I'm trying to remember which AUMF authorizes boots on the ground in Syria.  Ah well, that's just a formality.

[Todd]

News you can use.

[Todd]

If you don't get the AUMF you want, just redefine an old one.  Thanks, Obama!

[Todd]

No François for France.

[Spineur]

No François for France.

Watch out, he aint the only François (Fillon)

[Turner]

A Russian woman from Sochi just got a prison sentence of 7 years for high treason
- for sending a SMS about local tanks moving in the area towards Abkhazia.
She was arrested in 2015, for sending the SMS 7 years earlier:

http://www.mk.ru/social/2016/12/01/7-let-za-sms-za-chto-posadili-oksanu-sevastidi.html

(it´s a verified story that can probably be found in English-language media soon).

EDIT: Dec. 9th: here´s one: https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/jailed-for-a-text-message-welcome-to-krasnodar-the-epicenter-of-russian-treason-56474

[Todd]

One day, and not one, but two prime ministers resign, though for different reasons.  Equity markets are up in the US and Europe.  It's all good.

[ahinton]

Watch out, he aint the only François (Fillon)

Indeed not - and, at least for the time being, Fillon looks set to be the greatest threat to electoral success for le Pen, given that he's already well to the right (even though not quite as much so as she is).

[ahinton]

One day, and not one, but two prime ministers resign, though for different reasons.  Equity markets are up in the US and Europe.  It's all good.

For how many minutes, do you suppose?

[Todd]

For how many minutes, do you suppose?

FTSE, DAX, and CAC closed up for the day, so at least one trading day in the European markets that matter.  US markets have been up for almost four hours as I type.  So quite a few minutes.  New Zealand is irrelevant to global politics and economics, and the tumult in Italy wasn't a huge shock.  If the Italian government can't address banking concerns, that's more important. 

[Spineur]

Indeed not - and, at least for the time being, Fillon looks set to be the greatest threat to electoral success for le Pen, given that he's already well to the right (even though not quite as much so as she is).

Nothing is written and much can happen in the six coming month.
Marine, François and Manuel (Valls) will probably the main contenders.  They have the authoriarian personalities that people want to see in their leader today.  Isnt that the real reason for Donald (Trump) success ?

Emmanuel (Macron) has zero experience.  Ex banker from Rotschild, never elected, not even 2 years as minister and always in a game of smoke and mirrors.  Considering his weak personality, will he be able to keep the illusion all the way ?  I have my doubt.

The orator of the extreme left has the usual leftist rethoric, but travels in Mercedes with chauffeur and is extremely self consious.

As you may surmise, I dont like any of them, but I will have to.make a choice as the french president has power even if doesnt have a majority at the parliament.  (Power to call for a referendum,power to disokve the parliament, the head of the armies, nuclear control, etc, etc)

[Todd]

$25 billion here, $25 billion there, pretty soon you're talking Pentagon money.

[ahinton]

FTSE, DAX, and CAC closed up for the day, so at least one trading day in the European markets that matter.  US markets have been up for almost four hours as I type.  So quite a few minutes.  New Zealand is irrelevant to global politics and economics, and the tumult in Italy wasn't a huge shock.  If the Italian government can't address banking concerns, that's more important.

"Minutes" was clearly intended to be figurative. The European markets, like any other, can be subject to all manner of vagaries and the events in Europe, principally but not solely within EU, are such that the only thing that's certain is uncertainty, as is indeed the case with the UK Brexit situation in which wilful lack of government action, a raft of pending Court cases and a wide variety of other considerations appear so far to have conspired to cement such uncertainty over the 5½+ months since the non-legally binding opinion poll result was announced; financial markets and sustained political and economic uncertainty are not great bedfellows.

[Todd]

"Minutes" was clearly intended to be figurative.

European markets up today as well. 

Perhaps you missed my mention of the more important issue facing Italy that pertains to markets.  Sure, Italy might be able to pull its own version of Brexit, I guess, but that's apparently not on the table right now.

[ahinton]

European markets up today as well. 

Perhaps you missed my mention of the more important issue facing Italy that pertains to markets.  Sure, Italy might be able to pull its own version of Brexit, I guess, but that's apparently not on the table right now.

No, I didn't miss it. Italy is indeed not the first country that springs to mind when the possibility of its own version of Brexit might arise (though God help any nation that tries it on in the way that UK has!) - France, Germany, Austria and Netherlands are arguably more likely candidates, especially should their administrations swerve to the extreme right - but it's hardly last on the list either, for there's substantial discontent there and in Eurozone nations in particular that is increasingly threatening to undermine the stability and future of the very EU from which UK is purportedly trying to extricate itself. I would not therefore dismiss entirely the possibility that Italy might find itself caught up in a more widespread EU exit strategy.

Also, one of the fickle aspects of financial markets is that markets is that their success is dependent to some degree on the stability of currencies, for all stocks are valued in these; if EU does fall apart, one such currency will collapse as part of this and that will affect the currencies of other nations that deal with EU. Whilst a global currency collapse is not currently likely, it would again be foolhardy to dismiss such a possibility out of hand.

[Todd]

Whilst a global currency collapse is not currently likely, it would again be foolhardy to dismiss such a possibility out of hand.

You appear to prefer dealing in extreme possibility arguments and concerns.  I freely and openly confess that I deal with the probable far more than the possible.  All sorts of things are possible but also improbable to the point of irrelevance. 

In the event of a dissolution of the EU - since it is not a state, I'm not sure the word "collapse" applies - there would certainly be turmoil in currency, equity, and debt markets the world over, the US dollar would surge even more, and European countries would have to rely on more traditional forms of diplomacy and trade arrangements.  Not ideal, to be sure, and definitely disruptive, but it may also not be quite the end of the world, either.  What do you reckon the probability of an EU "collapse" is in the next five years?  Ten years?  Twenty years?  This could help establish a good currency trading plan, you see.

[ahinton]

In the event of a dissolution of the EU - since it is not a state, I'm not sure the word "collapse" applies

I don't see why.

there would certainly be turmoil in currency, equity, and debt markets the world over, the US dollar would surge even more, and European countries would have to rely on more traditional forms of diplomacy and trade arrangements.  Not ideal, to be sure, and definitely disruptive, but it may also not be quite the end of the world, either.  What do you reckon the probability of an EU "collapse" is in the next five years?  Ten years?  Twenty years?  This could help establish a good currency trading plan, you see.

I do not say that it will collapse, only that it might if extreme right wing governments take over in some of its more important member states. and that reform of it will be less likely should UK's departure therefrom proceed. There's no guarantee that such collapse would result in any permanent surge in the value of the US dollar and, in any case, the state of that currency will likely be affected by relations between US and other nations besides the EU group. There's all to play for right now but no trusting the principal players.

[Todd]

US life expectancy drops.  Is this good or bad news?