Pray for Florida - Irma barrels down

[Scion7]

The latest news I see is that it is still a Cat 4 - can you post where it was upgraded again?  Thanks.
Interstate 95 and 20 were both clogged with evacuation traffic Friday Afternoon.

[amw]

The latest news I see is that it is still a Cat 4 - can you post where it was upgraded again?  Thanks.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/090259.shtml

The forecast discussion has it remaining at Cat 5 for up to 24 hours before weakening and making landfall on Sunday at Cat 4 strength:

INIT  09/0300Z 22.1N  77.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 22.6N  79.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 23.3N  80.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 24.5N  81.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
48H  11/0000Z 26.5N  81.9W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
72H  12/0000Z 31.6N  83.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
96H  13/0000Z 35.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/0000Z 35.5N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

[Scion7]

Posted by: amw
Cuba appears to have softened Irma up more significantly than expected: wind speed is down to 130 mph and pressure up to 937 mbar. As of 25 minutes ago, the eye was back over water, but I guess that's finally some good news for Florida.

It will certainly undergo another intensification once it crosses the strait towards Florida, but chances are it wouldn't intensify all the way back to a Category 5. Forecast seems to be for a strong Category 4 landfall at about 150mph on the Keys sometime tomorrow, by which time there will hopefully be no one left except the NWS Key West team in their hurricane-proof bunker of a weather station, followed by a trip up the coast towards Cape Coral/Fort Myers. Miami area seems likely to be spared the worst storm surge and heaviest winds, but still with plenty of flooding from rain.

Hoping it will continue to dissipate.

[amw]

Currently downgraded to Category 3. Forecast is that it will regain strength, but now not as strong as feared: 140mph instead of 150. NHC now has "very high confidence" in the Key West -> Gulf of Mexico -> Cape Coral track, with tropical storm conditions expected as far north as Atlanta.

So it's still a scary storm, but no longer quite Katrina II: Electric Boogaloo. Provided the forecast holds of course.

[kishnevi]

Currently downgraded to Category 3. Forecast is that it will regain strength, but now not as strong as feared: 140mph instead of 150. NHC now has "very high confidence" in the Key West -> Gulf of Mexico -> Cape Coral track, with tropical storm conditions expected as far north as Atlanta.

So it's still a scary storm, but no longer quite Katrina II: Electric Boogaloo. Provided the forecast holds of course.

Katrina is not a real parallel. The high death total and extreme flooding resulted from peculiar geography: a major city built on swampland below sea level. Even Miami doesn't have that. It's built on swampland but at sea level, not below it. And Katrina was a Cat 3 when it hit the Gulf Coast. When it hit the Miami area before passing into the Gulf, it was just barely a hurricane (its center made landfall about two miles from my old workplace, and passed about a dozen miles south of my house).

The most obvious catastrophic parallel at the moment is the Labor Day hurricane of 1935
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane
While its projected forecast brings to mind this one, in which about twice as many people drowned in inland flooding as drowned in Katrina. Like Katrina many if not most were poor blacks.
ETA correct link
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

[Mirror Image]

I hope Irma gets weaker and weaker. Nobody deserves this kind of weather. Nobody. Not even my worst enemy.

[amw]

Katrina is not a real parallel. The high death total and extreme flooding resulted from peculiar geography: a major city built on swampland below sea level. Even Miami doesn't have that. It's built on swampland but at sea level, not below it. And Katrina was a Cat 3 when it hit the Gulf Coast. When it hit the Miami area before passing into the Gulf, it was just barely a hurricane (its center made landfall about two miles from my old workplace, and passed about a dozen miles south of my house).

Had only just weakened from Cat 5 a few hours before, but, yeah. 1935 Labor Day is the best parallel for hurricanes that this is probably not going to be quite as bad as after all.

Irma is still partly over the Cuban mainland and thus could still lose further strength before its northwest turn. NHC is issuing hourly position/wind speed/direction updates though. I guess keep an eye on the radar

[Spineur]

Will the U-Haul trucks be a good protection for the Donughts shop ??

[Scion7]

I understand the point you are trying to make, MI, but there are plenty of people who have deserved this, and much more.
But I know you know enough history/current events to know who they are.

--------------------

Anyone trying to stay put, keep your phones in the chargers/plugged into your charges up until you lose power.

[amw]

Will the U-Haul trucks be a good protection for the Donughts shop ??

I'm guessing they parked there because that's the highest ground available.....

Central pressure starting to drop again :/ 941 -> 937

[kishnevi]

I'm guessing they parked there because that's the highest ground available.....

Central pressure starting to drop again :/ 941 -> 937

They are ad hoc shutters, parked there so any flying debris will hit them and not the building.  That assumes the wind will not be strong enough to turn the trucks into flying debris.

FYI, the movement westward now means my area now faces tropical storm force winds through tomorrow night. I still have to watch out for roof damage, etc and have to assume power outages at some point, but that's an improvement over yesterday morning, when my house was smack dab middle of the forecast cone.

[Spineur]

FYI, the movement westward now means my area now faces tropical storm force winds through tomorrow night. I still have to watch out for roof damage, etc and have to assume power outages at some point, but that's an improvement over yesterday morning, when my house was smack dab middle of the forecast cone.

Good luck and be very careful.  I just saw some of the first pics out of Cuba.   They look like a war zone.  This storm looks so scary. 

[Ken B]

I hope Irma gets weaker and weaker. Nobody deserves this kind of weather. Nobody. Not even my worst enemy.

Indeed. Not a universally shared opinion though. Unfortunately most of what I read says there's a hot spot of water, not that big really, in just the wrong place southeast of the keys. So a high cat 4 or low cat 5 seems likely. The keys will be inundated.

[amw]

It seems to be starting another eyewall replacement cycle as per weather twitter. Because of its size and stability this could take a long time, which might be good news as it would result in weakening wind speeds that could offset the warmer waters it's heading into (as far as I understand it). Or might be bad news if it completes the cycle before reaching the warmer waters and thus is in perfect condition for rapid intensification. Models show a pretty wide range of possible intensities at landfall depending on the timing of the eyewall replacement and turn, ranging from ~928 mbar (Cat 4, not much stronger than it is now) to ~896 mbar (high end Cat 5..... bearing in mind that this storm reached wind speeds of 185 mph with a pressure of 914 mbar)

Hopefully the people taking selfies in front of the waves at Key West are simply waiting for the last possible moment to evacuate instead of trying to ride it out on their own..... or at very least can get to the 5 emergency shelters set up

[vandermolen]

All strength to you all affected by this terrible hurricane.

[kishnevi]

Good luck and be very careful.  I just saw some of the first pics out of Cuba.   They look like a war zone.  This storm looks so scary.

Thank you.
It was a Cat 5 when it hit Cuba, apparently the first Cat 5 to do so since the early 1930s.  But remember that thanks to Communism much of Cuba still lives like it's the 1930s in terms of transportation, etc. This is what happens when major hurricanes meet old ill maintained buildings and infrastructure.

[Mister Sharpe]

Where's Hemingway when you need him? He'd give that storm what for...or drink it under the table...

[Mirror Image]

I understand the point you are trying to make, MI, but there are plenty of people who have deserved this, and much more.

But I know you know enough history/current events to know who they are.

What I do know is it's rather tiresome to hear political talk happening whenever it's completely uncalled for. I sincerely hope everyone who decided to stay in Florida takes refuge as hurricanes have proven to not like humans too much. Be safe all my GMG friends who are down there.

[kishnevi]

What I do know is it's rather tiresome to hear political talk happening whenever it's completely uncalled for. I sincerely hope everyone who decided to stay in Florida takes refuge as hurricanes have proven to not like humans too much. Be safe all my GMG friends who are down there.

We take it seriously. I've got one of those outer bands  lashing my window even as I type.
And take care of yourself. When gets up to Atlanta, it will probably still be a tropical storm.

[Mirror Image]

We take it seriously. I've got one of those outer bands  lashing my window even as I type.
And take care of yourself. When gets up to Atlanta, it will probably still be a tropical storm.

Thank you. Stay safe, my friend. It'll be over soon enough.