Coronavirus thread

[MusicTurner]

A big presser today about loosening of restrictions in DK, and stating that Omicron is significantly milder than Delta, also supported by the local data.

[Florestan]

The European Union's drug regulator on Tuesday expressed doubts about the need for a fourth booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine and said there is currently no data to support this approach as it seeks more data on the fast-spreading Omicron variant.

"While use of additional boosters can be part of contingency plans, repeated vaccinations within short intervals would not represent a sustainable long-term strategy," the European Medicines Agency's Head of Vaccines Strategy, Marco Cavaleri, told a media briefing.

The EMA official raised concerns that a strategy of giving boosters every four months hypothetically poses the risk of overloading people's immune systems and leading to fatigue in the population.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-drug-regulator-says-more-data-needed-impact-omicron-vaccines-2022-01-11/

[Karl Henning]

A big presser today about loosening of restrictions in DK, and stating that Omicron is significantly milder than Delta, also supported by the local data.

Good. Sounds like you're about over the hump.

[MusicTurner]

Good. Sounds like you're about over the hump.

Hopefully not a premature decision, and hopefully what other countries can expect too. Case numbers are still high here, but right now that curve seems to be flattening, and hospitalizations apparently going down (+ a lot of them are related to earlier Delta). Yet there are also some problems with fatalities at the homes for the elderly, sadly. Overall, Omicron produces less severe cases, also due to vaccination rates and people who've already had it. A new American survey, not yet peer-reviewed, says that omicron is only 1/10 fatal, compared to Delta:
https://www.axios.com/cdc-omicron-death-delta-variant-covid-959f1e3a-b09c-4d31-820c-90071f8e7a4f.html

Concerning future vaccinations, there's cooperation between various international organizations as to what types to focus on - likely they'll soon be adjusted to omicron and omicron-deviations. Maybe there'll be 4th or 5ths boost, but it is now suggested here, that from this autumn, vaccines/boosts will mostly be a thing for the relatively fragile members of the society, like with the flu. We'll see.

[Madiel]

Here in Australia there are reports that a large proportion of the people recently in intensive care are infected with Delta, not Omicron.

The geniuses in charge, in New South Wales in particular, started opening up when the Delta outbreak was still around.

Locally, the Chief Minister said that modelling is showing we might be near the peak of the Omicron wave (around 1100 cases per day). The number of people in hospital in Canberra has increased, but not as much as feared. Our high vaccination rate is surely helping, and now the number of people who have had a booster shot is also increasing.

The 2 big stories around here at the moment are:

1. It's incredibly difficult for people to actually get tested. Authorities are now officially accepting rapid antigen test results and counting them... but good luck finding rapid antigen test kits if you don't already have them.

2. Food supply chains are badly affected by the number of truck drivers sick or isolating. Panic buying inevitably exacerbates the problem. Supermarket shelves have very noticeable gaps at the moment. There's plenty of food, it's just not getting to the shelves.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Here in Australia there are reports that a large proportion of the people recently in intensive care are infected with Delta, not Omicron.

The geniuses in charge, in New South Wales in particular, started opening up when the Delta outbreak was still around.

Locally, the Chief Minister said that modelling is showing we might be near the peak of the Omicron wave (around 1100 cases per day). The number of people in hospital in Canberra has increased, but not as much as feared. Our high vaccination rate is surely helping, and now the number of people who have had a booster shot is also increasing.

The 2 big stories around here at the moment are:

1. It's incredibly difficult for people to actually get tested. Authorities are now officially accepting rapid antigen test results and counting them... but good luck finding rapid antigen test kits if you don't already have them.

2. Food supply chains are badly affected by the number of truck drivers sick or isolating. Panic buying inevitably exacerbates the problem. Supermarket shelves have very noticeable gaps at the moment. There's plenty of food, it's just not getting to the shelves.

Last I heard, it's the same here....lack of at home tests and some gaps on the shelves---but not too bad from what I've seen.

PD

[Holden]

Here in Australia there are reports that a large proportion of the people recently in intensive care are infected with Delta, not Omicron.

The geniuses in charge, in New South Wales in particular, started opening up when the Delta outbreak was still around.

Locally, the Chief Minister said that modelling is showing we might be near the peak of the Omicron wave (around 1100 cases per day). The number of people in hospital in Canberra has increased, but not as much as feared. Our high vaccination rate is surely helping, and now the number of people who have had a booster shot is also increasing.

The 2 big stories around here at the moment are:

1. It's incredibly difficult for people to actually get tested. Authorities are now officially accepting rapid antigen test results and counting them... but good luck finding rapid antigen test kits if you don't already have them.

2. Food supply chains are badly affected by the number of truck drivers sick or isolating. Panic buying inevitably exacerbates the problem. Supermarket shelves have very noticeable gaps at the moment. There's plenty of food, it's just not getting to the shelves.

Queensland's border will be officially ripped down from 1 am on Saturday. No passes or vaccination statements needed, people can cross at will and it will stay that way. Is testing really necessary now that we've let Omicron loose? I think not. Let's look at it logically.

If you are infected but asymptomatic will you know? No. Will you get tested? No, because you have no symptoms.

If you have a bit of a sniffle or similar will you be able to tell if it's Covid? No. Should you isolate for a couple of days - probably. If it's the flu/a cold would you stay at home? That's all down to how you operate. Some will and some won't

Let's go back to 2019. Let's say I have a bad cold. I would probably take a day or so off work and avoid visiting people with young children or elderly relatives. Would I get tested by my GP for a cold or the flu? Probably not as I've been down this road before and I'll simply ride it out. The exception to this is if I felt really sick and that's when I would seek medical advice. So what's different nowadays? Basically nothing except we've blown this whole pandemic idea totally out of proportion. Now that we are seeing upwards of 10,000 cases a day in Qld the whole approach has changed to something far more rational. It's taken us two years to see the obvious.

Some of you will read this and think "No, we needed to act". Before you take this thought any further, consider whether or not you have been conditioned to think this way over the last two years. Hopefully we are now looking forward and moving to take back control of our lives.

[Madiel]

Holden, up until now the death rate has been considerably, considerably higher than the flu.

It hasn't been that high in Australia. But that's a bit like reasoning that the Y2K bug wasn't really a big deal because we successfully prevented it from being a big deal.

The number of deaths is currently going up, lagging behind the increase in the number of cases. This is completely predictable. 29 deaths reported in NSW today. Still tiny by international comparison, but the worst ever for that state. Possibly any Australian state, I'm not sure where Victoria peaked in their first wave.

The goal really is to get this disease to where it's something like the flu. Omicron might in fact get us heading in that direction. But the data is not fully in yet. And while the data is not fully in yet, it pays to err on the side of caution. Because the consequences of being wrong about that are fairly bad.

The line that this is basically like the flu has been trotted out pretty well since this whole thing started. But the data has kept showing that comparison to be flawed. Realistically the goal is to get to the point where the comparison is no longer flawed. Are we there yet? I doubt it.  We might be there in a few more months.

[Madiel]

Djokovic's visa has been cancelled. Again.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-14/novak-djokovic-visa-cancellation-decision-immigration-minister/100748386

Bring your popcorn for the next round as he tries to challenge the Minister's personal decision. I doubt it will be simple. I imagine one reason the decision has taken days is to ensure that it's not subject to the sort of procedural challenge that undid the first cancellation.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Djokovic's visa has been cancelled. Again.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-14/novak-djokovic-visa-cancellation-decision-immigration-minister/100748386

Bring your popcorn for the next round as he tries to challenge the Minister's personal decision. I doubt it will be simple. I imagine one reason the decision has taken days is to ensure that it's not subject to the sort of procedural challenge that undid the first cancellation.

I just read the news about 15 minutes ago after having gone to bed thinking that Minister Hawke wasn't going to do it.  Apparently he made the decision Friday evening (your time)?

PD

[Madiel]

News broke around 6pm our time. So decision would have been a little before.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

News broke around 6pm our time. So decision would have been a little before.

I found out (after the fact) that the first hearing was broadcast live (though with some difficulties).  Do you happen to know if they are doing something similar now (or will be tomorrow)?  I do see a timeline here:  https://www.theage.com.au

It seems that he is not currently in detention and that the hearing will be tomorrow.

PD

[Madiel]

I found out (after the fact) that the first hearing was broadcast live (though with some difficulties).  Do you happen to know if they are doing something similar now (or will be tomorrow)?  I do see a timeline here:  https://www.theage.com.au

It seems that he is not currently in detention and that the hearing will be tomorrow.

PD

No real idea about broadcast. It's not terribly common here, and it's basically up to the court, but as apparently it's the same judge (at least for the initial directions hearing) then I wouldn't be surprised if it's broadcast again.

I would imagine the judge would at least grant a temporary injunction so that they can't deport Djokovic until the full hearing.  Reporting is also that Djokovic won't be held in detention yet, at least until an interview with immigration officials tomorrow.

Really, none of this should ever have happened. He never should have got a visa in the first place. The fact that he did is almost certainly because it's done through a bunch of automated systems. And on top of that, you apparently have Tennis Australia completely ignoring advice, given in November, that the policy at the border was that a previous infection wasn't grounds to be unvaccinated, regardless of what any medical panel thought.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

No real idea about broadcast. It's not terribly common here, and it's basically up to the court, but as apparently it's the same judge (at least for the initial directions hearing) then I wouldn't be surprised if it's broadcast again.

I would imagine the judge would at least grant a temporary injunction so that they can't deport Djokovic until the full hearing.

They are following it here (live), but I don't know which court it is being held at and can't find the live t.v.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/tennis/novak-djokovic-visa-saga-live-updates-immigration-minister-still-yet-to-make-decision-as-serbian-tennis-star-s-2022-australian-open-campaign-remains-in-limbo-20220114-p59o7i.html

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Found it!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_-BcBnNeLA

[Madiel]

I might add I've found one of the documents that Tennis Australia might have relied on.

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/11/atagi-expanded-guidance-on-temporary-medical-exemptions-for-covid-19-vaccines.pdf

Note that the purpose for this is to do with local immunisation records. And it is guidance. ATAGI is an advisory body, not a lawmaking one.

What it emphatically is not is a statement of border/migration policy. From what I've seen, Tennis Australia was told twice in November what migration policy was.

The Health Department issued advice to Australian Open officials on November 18, which in part said:

"ATAGI is not responsible for border control issues, however, the Australian Border Force has advised that people must meet the fully vaccinated definition set by ATAGI to gain quarantine-free entry into Australia."

On seeking further clarification, a letter from Health Minister Greg Hunt to Tennis Australia on November 29 stated: "... the Australian Border Force has advised that people must be fully vaccinated, as defined by the ATAGI, to gain quarantine-free entry into Australia."

Fully vaccinated as defined by the ATAGI - that's basically having had 2 doses. It's got nothing to do with the ATAGI document discussing good reasons to not have or delay vaccination. It's entirely up to the immigration officials the extent to which they adopt that advice, and the policy decision was that when it came to foreigners entering the country, we would tell them they ought to sort that stuff out back home.

Except that isn't what happened. An automated system didn't tell Djokovic, and others, no. But also, Tennis Australia just completely ignored the federal border issue and only talked to the State government (and apparently didn't even tell the State government about the above advice).

Tennis Australia has been lying rather low since Djokovic's arrival in the country, but I honestly think that's the place where heads most need to roll.  Someone was either too legally incompetent to understand what the federal Health Minister told them, or just decided to close their eyes and hope it would be ignored. And maybe it would have been ignored, if one of the highest profile tennis players and certainly the highest profile vaccine skeptic in tennis hadn't made the question of whether he'd be able to play at the Australian Open into a big question, and hadn't generated widespread outrage in Australia when he announced that hey, he was coming after all.

[Florestan]

Really, none of this should ever have happened. He never should have got a visa in the first place.

Yes, it would have been much better than all this circus show.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Yes, it did turn into a huge mess.  Craig Tiley and TA will have a lot of questions to answer.

Looks like Mr. Hawke's basis is that Djokovic's presence in Australia would stoke anti-fax sentiment.

If I'm understanding correctly, the fact that his medical exemption is not for a valid reason can no longer be considered part of the reasoning to deport him as it was already addressed in the previous hearing?  Is that correct Madiel?

And it seems that the government wants to pick up Novak at 8 a.m. to interview him, but his lawyers are arguing that his time would be better served by meeting with his counsel first?  And possible detention, but not tonight?

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Looks like the court reconvened while I was making coffee!  I came in part way (they're taking another but shorter break now)...I did catch that the hearing will now be moved to a Federal court and the lawyers are currently hashing out detention details (or the judge said that he'd do it if they didn't figure out something soon).

PD

[Madiel]

If I'm understanding correctly, the fact that his medical exemption is not for a valid reason can no longer be considered part of the reasoning to deport him as it was already addressed in the previous hearing?  Is that correct Madiel?

That's not entirely it. The Minister is using a different cancellation power to the one available to immigration officials, and that different power has different grounds for cancellation.

I won't claim to know all the ins and outs of the Migration Act and Migration Regulations (heaven knows they are insanely long and complex), but there are a number of sections that very explicitly say "this is a power that can only be exercised by the Minister, not delegated to anyone else". And so the Minister isn't trying to redo the same cancellation decision, he's done a different cancellation decision that wasn't available to the officials at the border - and so isn't something that the judge has previously ruled on.