anyone else following Egypt on Aljazeera?

[Scarpia]

That is why he is useful in this matter - his Nobel peace prize winning status would leave him more likely to want to be a good leader, if only for egotistical reasons. Becoming just another despot would lose him all that delicious international admiration and attention that he has gathered until now.

What do Boris Yeltsin, Fidel Castro, Mao Zedong, the Ayatollah Khomeini, and Vladimir Lenin all have in common?  They were popular revolutionaries that at one point seemed like a better alternative to the corrupt regimes that preceded them.  Who knows if ElBaredei will find his reputation particularly valuable when he controls the levers of power. 

[Lethevich]

I suppose so, but I suppose I am excessively optimistic. I can't consider supporting people like Mubarak over a potential improvement as a moral option - it's condemning members of poor countries to forever living in a dump at the expense of the dubious view that people like him make everyday life in rich countries better (Mexico having its own Saddam Hussain would probably make it cheaper and more convenient for the US to deal with, but that would still be a untentable proposition). Large risks have been an inherent part of how western countries developed their own political systems to their currently levels of adequacy and if attempts to reach those levels are stifled by western governments, no wonder those societies produce so many anti-western crazies.

I still maintain that Egypt is far away from the nightmare the last few US governments have dug themselves into in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It's not surprising that Somalia and Yemen are the next highest on the worry-scale, as those four countries aren't just undeveloped, exluding a few areas of mainly Pakistan, they are pre-modern. Egypt is like a more advanced Iraq, and all the things that went wrong with that country aren't present here (western military invasion, sectarian divide [at least between Muslims], a neighbouring country doing its best to pour terrorists over the border).

[Philoctetes]

Well luckily for everyone Mubarak has dissolved the government, in a day.

[Philoctetes]

More updates:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7BYZG_hhUU



edit: You can hear "their" "leader's" "response".

[Philoctetes]

Live streaming:
http://english.aljazeera.net/

Over thirty dead so far.

[Philoctetes]

Up to 53.

[Philoctetes]

Police now using live ammo to put down protesters.

[Philoctetes]

Rumors surfacing that Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Anan may assume power.

[Philoctetes]

Death toll up to 95.

[Lethevich]

4pm local time (2pm GMT) is the deadline for a curfew, apparently after which the police suggest it will be "dangerous" for people to remain outside. With 50,000+ and growing on Cairo's streets it seems like Super Drama Time

[Brian]

4pm local time (2pm GMT) is the deadline for a curfew, apparently after which the police suggest it will be "dangerous" for people to remain outside. With 50,000+ and growing on Cairo's streets it seems like Super Drama Time

This is scary stuff. We're watching world history happen. There are so many ways this could end (so few of them desirable).

[Brian]

Based on his leadership style at the IAEA he doesn't strike me as being of nearly the same mold. Also, he offered to be head of an *interim* government if the people so desire. That is a rather modest ambition that speaks well of his character.

ElBaradei is a boring technocrat. He wouldn't be a bad choice to oversee a temporary government, draft a new constitution ensuring democratic measures, and administer an election.

Heck, then he'd finally earn his Nobel Peace Prize.

[Scarpia]

ElBaradei is a boring technocrat. He wouldn't be a bad choice to oversee a temporary government, draft a new constitution ensuring democratic measures, and administer an election.

They have a constitution ensuring democratic measures.  Mubarek has been ruling under a declaration of a "state of emergency" for 30 years since the assassination of Anwar el Sadat by radical Islamicists interrupted his program of political and economic reform.

[karlhenning]

I guess, then, that after 30 years they need someone new to declare the end to the state of emergency . . . .

[Scarpia]

I guess, then, that after 30 years they need someone new to declare the end to the state of emergency . . . .

And when the street riots started they had nothing further to declare.   

[MDL]

Fascinating coverage from AJ. Let's hope the Islamists don't come out on top.

[knight66]

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Live coverage. 10 minutes into curfew, thousands crammed on the streets.

Mike

[Philoctetes]

Newly announced VP (the West's choice, of course), seeminly it seems that the prez is on his way out (perhaps like Putin).

[drogulus]

That is why he is useful in this matter - his Nobel peace prize winning status would leave him more likely to want to be a good leader, if only for egotistical reasons. Becoming just another despot would lose him all that delicious international admiration and attention that he has gathered until now.

     Like Karzai? No, these guys bask in international acclaim for a season then pivot away when they see how unpopular their status makes them at home, where they're seen as Western stooges. When push comes to shove the leader will always yield to internal pressures. In 6 months or less ElBaradei will be siding with the homies. Always appease the side most likely to kill you. Expressions of hatred for the West are cost free.

     I know the argument about the shortsightedness of supporting dictators, but it only convinces if the democratic alternative is better. Remember Algeria? If a genuine democratic alternative shows up we should support it, even at the risk of harming its chances. We want democracy and peace, but we want peace first.

[drogulus]

     Foreign policy is not run by stupid people. They know what we know and more. Nor is it run by people with different values than the critics have. That is a myth. It's run by people with real power, so what's different is their circumstances. What they do matters, and they aren't free to adopt ethics without consequences, which makes them look blind to consequences from the perspective of someones used to having opinions that have no consequences at all.

     What we will do and probably should do is ease Mubarak out by tying his hands (we might have done that already). We will welcome the new leader with expressions of hope, try and get the best people out of jail and into the new gov't. What else can we do?