Coronavirus thread

[Herman]

HE IS RISEN

Talking about Boris Johnson

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/12/boris-johnson-leaves-hospital-as-he-continues-recovery-from-coronavirus

Because of the love letters Carry / Crazy Girlfriend wrote, acc to the Mail.

So I suggest she starts writing love letters to other patients in dire straits.

[Christo]

Because of the love letters Carry / Crazy Girlfriend wrote, acc to the Mail.

So I suggest she starts writing love letters to other patients in dire straits.

She can actually write? 

[milk]

Yes, New Zealand is another, insular example. But then, Vietnam is doing remarkably well too.



((obviously, in my post above, I was just relating to Denmark's ~neighbouring countries)).

Three somewhat divergent examples. NZ went early and went strict in closing down, as far as I understand it. But I don't know how much testing they did.  Vietnam has very little in the way infrastructure and isn't a democracy; they quarantined buildings and set up camps, too. Japan had its first case in January. Face masks might have prevented a rapid rise in cases early on but now things are moving along with a second sharp wave of infections. Still, until this week, Japan was pretty much open for business. There's a lot closed down now but no lockdown.

[drogulus]

     New Coronavirus Drug Shows Promise in Animal Tests

EIDD-2801 inhibits the coronavirus's self-copying operations in a manner that is different from remdesivir. While remdesivir brings that replication process to a full stop, EIDD-2801 introduces mutations—mistakes—into the virus's RNA as it makes copies so that the viral RNA becomes so damaged that it cannot infect cells. Another feature of the drug is that it is able to work against a host of other RNA viruses. Thus, it could serve as a multipurpose antiviral, much in the way some antibiotics can work against a wide variety of bacteria. In several preclinical studies, researchers from multiple labs have shown that EIDD-2801 was effective against several strains of influenza, as well as the viruses for respiratory syncytial virus and the viruses for chikungunya, Venezuelan equine encephalitis and Eastern equine encephalitis—all microbes that intermittently pop up in different parts of the world and produce widespread sickness in their wake.

[ritter]

It's strangely reassuring to see that, whatever the circumstances, some things never change: the political obsessions of some, the pettiness of others....

[GioCar]

Difficult to see a more simplistic analysis than that...

[JBS]

Given the lack of testing, and the time lag in the spread of the virus and it's progression in each individual case (the three weeks Mandryka commented on), I would presume the US figure is not accurate.  Or at least I would be highly skeptical of it.

[Kaga2]

It's strangely reassuring to see that, whatever the circumstances, some things never change: the political obsessions of some, the pettiness of others....

There are three kinds of Bayesians
Subjective Bayesians — priors are personal
Objective Bayesians — priors are based on maximum entropy calculations
Political Bayesians — priors never change

[DaveF]

A great sadness to read of the death of veteran British comedian Tim Brooke-Taylor from the virus: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52262490.  Perhaps not an international star, but greatly loved at home.  I will make a pilgrimage to Mornington Crescent tube station at the earliest opportunity.

[Herman]

It's strangely reassuring to see that, whatever the circumstances, some things never change: the political obsessions of some, the pettiness of others....

Strange, yeah, we hadn't realized yet this is about who's got the best corona.

[Herman]

Given the lack of testing, and the time lag in the spread of the virus and it's progression in each individual case (the three weeks Mandryka commented on), I would presume the US figure is not accurate.  Or at least I would be highly skeptical of it.

It's not just a matter of accuracy, but also of timing. As Fauci explained (I believe it was to Trevor Noah), if you compare the impact of corona in the US, it helps to look at the US as several territories. So the first wave was Washington State and New York, and in the next wave other states will be hit hard.

The other thing is the numbers will be manipulated hard because Trump will want to declare a win for himself, in time for the election.

[Herman]

Very important.  Very informed.

It's wonderful to see you hale and well, Todd, and in such a lovely mood.

It was Fauci talking. So that's as informed as Fauci is.

[greg]

Japan is a country of 127 million. Reported deaths from the virus are about 100. Actually, I don't know how to understand Japan. We are in a state of emergency and all schools are closed. Yet, deaths remain few.

If obesity is a factor, then the low obesity rates could be a factor here as well.

For the video of the bus driver who died here (i think it was NY) from getting it most likely from some lady who coughed on him, first thing I noticed was that, although he was younger-looking (30 or 40), he was clearly overweight.

What if all the fish and seaweed is helping out somehow?  0:)

[Karl Henning]

She can actually write? 

There's always copy-&-paste...

[Karl Henning]

A great sadness to read of the death of veteran British comedian Tim Brooke-Taylor from the virus: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52262490.  Perhaps not an international star, but greatly loved at home.  I will make a pilgrimage to Mornington Crescent tube station at the earliest opportunity.

Loved him in At Last the 1948 Show.

[Herman]

She can actually write? 

Well, maybe not in Latin, the way Boris likes his love letters, but clearly whatever she wrote did the job.

He'll be dropping to his knee pretty soon (though there may be a previous entanglement?).

[Que]

US deaths will continue to rise.  If the revised (and lowered) predictions of 60K are accurate, it will be about three times as high as now, so roughly on par with France's official totals on a population basis.  All official totals are (significantly) understated if incompletely sourced journalistic scribblings from around the world are to be believed.

The total numbers, even in relation to the size of the total population, do not tell the real story about the effectiveness of the way an outbreak is handled... The sheer size of the total US population will blur out any (geographically concentrated) number of fatalities. The progression of the virus after initial contamination does give a more reliable picture:



Conclusion: the US isn't doing so swell. Although no Western country can be credited for responding  effectively....
I suspect that the bad US performance is mainly because its response was late, slow and uncoördinated. I could emphasise nature of the health care system, but since there is no real treatment I think that plays a secondary role to imposing social distancing.

Anyway, I'm  surprised you haven't celebrateted the demise of the power of federal government yet?
Since there seems ample reason to do so...

Q

[Karl Henning]

France reports fewest new cases in a week; Italy deaths rise by 431, fewest in more than three weeks

[ritter]

On the upside, strain on the EU is growing.  It's a pity that the Fed couldn't use this as an opportunity to pick and choose more carefully which Yurpean institutions to aid.  It would have been delightful had the Fed been able to shut the ECB out.  It is true that no crisis should go to waste, and the current situation offers the US a rare, non-war opportunity to apply political and economic pressure to destroy the EU, though I doubt full advantage is taken of the opportunity.

Those aren't the words of just a petty little man, those are the words of a bastard...

[ritter]

Good stuff.

Much obliged.