Coronavirus thread

[MusicTurner]

I've only had it happen to me once, but many of my friends have had this happen. One reason is the lack of consequences - I'm not joking when I say that by far the easiest way to murder someone in the United States is to run them over with a car and claim you didn't see them.

Well, at the very least it's hard to imagine such plot-makers not to have an awful lot of problems, that probably tend to pile up further, as time goes by.

[Karl Henning]

Omicron variant could peak in U.S. as soon as January, health officials warn

[Karl Henning]

Mass. reports 11,431 new breakthrough COVID-19 cases, raising total to 2 percent of fully vaccinated people — 4:44 p.m.

By Amanda Kaufman, Globe Staff

Massachusetts on Tuesday reported 11,431 more COVID-19 cases among fully vaccinated people since last week, bringing the total since the beginning of the vaccination campaign to 100,399 cases, or 2.02 percent of all fully vaccinated people.

The Department of Public Health also reported 52 more COVID-19 deaths among fully vaccinated people, bringing the total to 699 deaths among those fully vaccinated. The number of breakthrough deaths represents a tiny fraction of all vaccinated people and underscores the protection the vaccines provide against severe illness and death.

[Karl Henning]

Princeton, Cornell move finals online as Omicron is detected

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Princeton, Cornell move finals online as Omicron is detected

I read yesterday that almost 500 people had tested positive at Cornell for Covid.  Whoops!  *Bad memory here!  Make that over 900.  Mind you, in terms of percentages, they have over 25,000 students there at the Ithaca campus.  Still, that's horrible news! 

*or I might have read a story before they updated their numbers on Tuesday

Cornell University reported 903 cases of Covid-19 among students between December 7-13, and a "very high percentage" of them are Omicron variant cases in fully vaccinated individuals, according to university officials.

More here.... https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/us/cornell-university-covid-cases/index.html

How bad are Princeton's numbers Karl?

PD

EDIT:   NYU is also moving their finals online.

[Karl Henning]

Haven't found numbers, PD

Separately:

'State of the Spread' in Rhode Island shows dangerously overcrowded hospitals and Omicron variant worries — 11:19 a.m.

By Brian Amaral, Globe Staff

Internal briefing materials shared with Rhode Island health and political leaders present a stark picture of overcrowded hospitals, with potentially worse to come if the Omicron variant of COVID-19 spreads more easily than previous variants.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Haven't found numbers, PD

Separately:

'State of the Spread' in Rhode Island shows dangerously overcrowded hospitals and Omicron variant worries — 11:19 a.m.

By Brian Amaral, Globe Staff

Internal briefing materials shared with Rhode Island health and political leaders present a stark picture of overcrowded hospitals, with potentially worse to come if the Omicron variant of COVID-19 spreads more easily than previous variants.

I found this on their website:

34 positive out of 18,934 tests done between December 4 - 10th.  https://covid.princeton.edu/dashboard

I've heard very similar news regarding Arizona (re hospitals) lately too.

PD

[Florestan]

I found this on their website:

34 positive out of 18,934 tests done between December 4 - 10th.  https://covid.princeton.edu/dashboard

That's  0.17 %.

[Florestan]

More here.... https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/us/cornell-university-covid-cases/index.html

"Virtually every case of the Omicron variant to date has been found in fully vaccinated students, a portion of whom had also received a booster shot," said Vice President for University Relations Joel Malina in a statement.

An anti-science conspiracy theorist this Malina guy.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

That's  0.17 %.

And roughly 3.6% then for Cornell.  I wonder what the numbers were for Cornell the previous week.  As in how quickly is it spreading?

PD

[Mandryka]

The UK has been warned to expect a lot of people to get ill all at the same time over the next few weeks. This will make it impossible to provide basic services smoothly - education, public transport, health, law and order, distribution of essential items like food and medications and so on. We are being urged to do as we did in 1939: viz




I'm not sure I fully understand the Government's thinking behind this painful strategy, but a clue came this morning when Jenny Harries, who runs the UK Health Security Agency, suggested to Parliament that she expected that cases would peak around the new year, presumably because the virus would run out of fuel, as it were. The number of susceptible people will decrease due to acquired or vaccine induced omicron immunity.

What this suggests to me is that the UK strategy is to develop population wide herd immunity by letting omicron do its worst. They clearly think that there is enough play in the system to do that, given a high booster take up.


It is a huge gamble! Not only on the leeway in the health system and the effectiveness of the vaccines, but also on the social consequences of a huge wave of illness in the country.

And I keep thinking: when will the winter flu epidemic start?

[Florestan]

The UK has been warned to expect a lot of people to get ill all at the same time over the next few weeks. This will make it impossible to provide basic services smoothly - education, public transport, health, law and order, distribution of essential items like food and medications and so on.

Who has issued this fear-mongering, panic-inducing warning? The government? The experts? The press? All of them and then some?

[Mandryka]

Who has issued this fear-mongering, panic-inducing warning? The government? The experts? The press? All of them and then some?

Yes, The government and the experts.  Can you watch this in Romania?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLS7i1R1fBI&ab_channel=10DowningStreet

[Karl Henning]

But, of course, everybody dies anyway ...

Omicron spreading rapidly in U.S. and could bring punishing wave as soon as January, CDC warns

By Lena H. Sun, Joel Achenbach, Laurie McGinley and Tyler Pager

Yesterday at 3:08 p.m. EST| Updated yesterday at 8:02 p.m. EST

Top federal health officials warned in a briefing Tuesday morning that the omicron variant is rapidly spreading in the United States and could peak in a massive wave of infections as soon as January, according to new modeling analyzed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The prevalence of omicron jumped sevenfold in a single week [emphasis mine—kh], according to the CDC, and at such a pace, the highly mutated variant of the coronavirus could ratchet up pressure on a health system already strained in many places as the delta variant continues its own surge.

The warning of an imminent surge came even as federal officials and some pharmaceutical executives signaled that they don't currently favor creating an omicron-specific vaccine. Based on the data so far, they say that existing vaccines plus a booster shot are an effective weapon against omicron.

The CDC briefing Tuesday detailed two scenarios for how the omicron variant may spread through the country. The worst-case scenario has spooked top health officials, who fear that a fresh wave, layered on top of delta and influenza cases in what one described as "a triple whammy," could overwhelm health systems and devastate communities, particularly those with low vaccination rates.

"I'm a lot more alarmed. I'm worried," said Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, who participated in the call. The CDC, normally cautious in its messaging, told the public health officials that "we got to get people ready for this," he said.

He noted that the omicron surge, if it materializes as forecast, would be taking place as delta continues its onslaught and during the time of year when influenza cases often peak.

Officials stress that early data shows that individuals who are fully vaccinated and received a booster shot remain largely protected against severe illness and death from omicron [emphasis mine—kh]. But they worry about how few Americans have been boosted to date. Over 55 million people in the United States have gotten the additional shots, out of 200 million who are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.

The newest modeling scenarios have been shared among senior administration officials as they discuss politically fraught decisions about how, when and whether to take new steps to suppress the virus and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.

The second scenario outlines a smaller omicron surge in the spring. It's unclear which scenario is more likely. The modeling was done by experts tapped by CDC Director Rochelle Walensky in August to deliver real-time outbreak forecasting and analytics. The experts work with other teams inside and outside the government.

"They're considering the information at the highest levels right now, and thinking through how to get the public to understand what the scenarios mean," said one federal health official familiar with the briefing. "It looks daunting."

"The implications of a big wave in January that could swamp hospitals ... we need to take that potential seriously," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss policy deliberations.

Late Tuesday, after this story was published online, the CDC released a statement saying the morning discussion was part of a regularly scheduled meeting, hosted by the agency, with leaders of four public health organizations. "As we are preparing for a range of scenarios with the Omicron variant, a portion of the meeting was dedicated to discussion around results from various modeling groups related to Omicron—no CDC, HHS or U.S. Government models were presented," the statement said.

The CDC's analysis is consistent with that of several academic groups in the United States and with data from the United Kingdom, Denmark and Norway. New restrictions have already been imposed in the United Kingdom and other countries in Europe that were seeded with omicron earlier.

The Biden administration's strategy relies heavily on vaccination and testing. When President Biden announced his "action plan" on Dec. 2 for fighting the virus this winter, he noted "it doesn't include shutdowns or lockdowns but widespread vaccinations and boosters and testing and a lot more."

A reformulated vaccine that's omicron-specific is not currently planned as part of that toolbox, said senior administration health officials and experts at vaccine companies, adding there is no evidence a vaccine design switch is necessary.

They cited data that suggests the original vaccines, coupled with a booster shot, provide protection against severe illness caused by omicron. So far, they noted, the vaccines have successfully countered every variant. That view could change in the next two weeks as more data comes in involving laboratory tests and the spread of omicron.

Switching the vaccines has sweeping implications. If they are changed too early, that limits the ability to deal with another variant down the road — one that might be more dangerous than omicron.

"We have to be careful not to repeat mistakes of the past," said one administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk about the issue. "If there is a change needed, we want to make it, but we don't want to end up making a change if we don't really need it. It costs time, money and effort."

Experts say it's impossible to keep changing the vaccines or giving different boosters because there is not enough manufacturing capacity and other resources.

Anthony S. Fauci, Biden's chief medical adviser on the coronavirus response, said in an interview Monday that "there isn't any compelling reason right now to drop everything and make an omicron-specific vaccine, as opposed to continue to administer vaccine for people who are unvaccinated and boosting people who are vaccinated."

Speaking Tuesday in an interview on NBC's "Today" show, Walensky, the CDC director, said that while omicron "is more transmissible ... I want to emphasize that we have the tools now" to keep Americans safe.

The signs of omicron's transmissibility in this country are mounting: From Dec. 4 to Dec. 11, the variant likely jumped from a mere 0.4 percent of new infections in the U.S. to 2.9 percent, according to the new CDC data. In New York and New Jersey, omicron already accounts for 13 percent of new cases, Walensky said.

In the Houston Methodist hospital system, omicron accounted for 13 percent of new cases in a four-day period leading up to Dec. 8, according to James Musser, chair of pathology and genomic medicine. He expects that percentage to approach 20 percent when new numbers are published Wednesday. The omicron variant was first detected in Houston on Nov. 29.

Musser said his hospital system is ready for whatever comes next: "We've had 21 months of this now, and we're sort of — I hate to say it, because it's tragic — but we're sort of skilled in the art of how to handle this."

Though the delta variant remains dominant in the United States and is the driver of the recent surge in hospitalizations, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Mountain West, omicron continues to show signs that it is dramatically more transmissible. Importantly, it has dozens of mutations that make it a more slippery foe when encountered by neutralizing antibodies, the immune system's first line of defense.

That was reinforced Tuesday with the release of a large study from researchers in South Africa, the country that first warned the world of the emergence of the new variant in late November. The new study confirms that vaccines are significantly less effective at preventing infections with omicron but still usually prevent severe disease. The study also found that the people infected with omicron so far have had a 29 percent lower chance of being hospitalized than those infected with the virus that was circulating in South Africa in March 2020.

Infectious-disease experts caution that what happens in South Africa, which has a relatively young population, may not be repeated in Northern Hemisphere countries with older populations.

The CDC modelers also based their forecasts in part on data coming out of Denmark, Norway and the United Kingdom, said Plescia, with Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. Looking at the Norway data, the modelers said cases there could reach 300,000 quickly, "and there's not that many people in Norway," he added.

Scott Becker, chief executive of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, who was also on the call Tuesday, said it was "really important for the public health community to understand the early signals because it's all about preparedness and readiness."

Public health officials think there is adequate supply of personal protective equipment in the United States to protect against another wave. But the country is not ready with sufficient testing capability. States will need to work with their hospital systems to get them ready to expand capacity, Plescia and others said.

"The hope is that it is going to be less severe, but the concern is that the numbers could be so great, even if proportionally less people have to be hospitalized, the numbers are much higher and a lot of people are going to be really sick and overwhelm things," Plescia said.

The messaging to the public will be even more difficult. Two things that would help enormously — less travel during Christmas and more consistent wearing of masks — are not likely to happen, because people are so tired of the pandemic and have tuned out many public health messages [emphasis mine, and they get tuned out quicker and more thoroughly in states with large Evangelical populations—kh], he added.

Fauci said Friday that modeling data could portend a lifting of travel bans against countries in southern Africa, where omicron was first detected three weeks ago, should the analysis show the bans make no difference at this point.

[Florestan]

Yes, The government and the experts.  Can you watch this in Romania?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLS7i1R1fBI&ab_channel=10DowningStreet

I can and I will try to watch the whole thing tomorrow --- provided I'll be able to stand BoJo talking for such a large amount of time.

As a first comment before even watching it, I must say the UK government and experts make much more apocalyptic predictions than the Romanian ones, and the latter (I mean, not that much the Romanian government as the Romanian experts*) are famous for their apocalyptical tone.

* many of whom are no experts at all, it's the mainstream media that present them as such without the slightest check on their credentials; for instance, would you trust the predictions of a guy who is presented as "physician and researcher" yet it turns out he has never ever treated one single patient in his whole life because he, albeit a graduated from a Medical School, is not licensed to practice medicine and the only place where he published his research on Covid-19 is his Facebook account? Me neither, yet every few days this "exoert" appears on mainstream TV channels. And there are many more like him, actually.

[Mandryka]

I can and I will try to watch the whole thing tomorrow --- provided I'll be able to stand BoJo talking for such a large amount of time.

As a first comment before even watching it, I must say the UK government and experts make much more apocalyptic predictions than the Romanian ones, and the latter (I mean, not that much the Romanian government

Skip Boris and Listen to Whitty. I don't follow what's happening in Romania but I listen to the French news often, and there the tone is less doom laden than here. I'll be most interested to know what's happening in Dk -- who are ahead of the rest of the EU in the omicron game, and possibly ahead of the UK.

Whitty is rather good I think -- a safe pair of hands.

[Florestan]

Skip Boris and Listen to Whitty. [...]

Whitty is rather good I think -- a safe pair of hands.

I'll watch the whole thing tomorrow.

[Florestan]

I'll be most interested to know what's happening in Dk -- who are ahead of the rest of the EU in the omicron game, and possibly ahead of the UK.

I'd say that South Africa is ahead of all other countries in the omicron game --- and they are quite relaxed about it. I have close relatives living there so I know what I'm talking about.

[Mandryka]

I'd say that South Africa is ahead of all other countries in the omicron game --- and they are quite relaxed about it. I have close relatives living there so I know what I'm talking about.

The UK line is:

1. Hospitalisations are increasing rapidly now in SA, as omicron begins to effect older cohorts there.
2. What they experience with omicron in SA may be much lighter than what they experienced with delta, because the community has more immunity now due to the delta wave. Omicron may be milder, it may not, it is too early to say.
3. Even if it is milder, it will still cause serious disruption -- to society generally (including hospital staff)  and to hospital requirements in particular. A lot of people will get ill in a small space of time, and even though only a small fraction of them will need to go to hospital, a small fraction of a large number is a large number.

[Florestan]

Even if it is milder, it will still cause serious disruption -- to society generally (including hospital staff)  and to hospital requirements in particular. A lot of people will get ill in a small space of time, and even though only a small fraction of them will need to go to hospital, a small fraction of a large number is a large number.

Did the UK government make public the number of Covid-19 hospitalisations over which the UK public healthcare system will collapse?

Has the UK public healthcare system at any point in time since March 2020 collapsed or been on the verge of collapsing?