Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

Shouldn't there be enough data now to calculate with confidence how the expectation of developing a serious form of the disease depends on age and preexisting conditions?

[MusicTurner]

Seems that the mere amount of virus one has gotten also plays a role in the severity, from what I've read. Also, yesterday you'd see a video with a British 99-year old war veteran in a wheelchair, cured and being pushed out of the hospital, to the acclaim of bystanders, whereas younger hospital staff have been severely hit at times.

[Mandryka]

I think the really big question now is this. How do we organise ourselves so that the risk of transmission is acceptable, in the workplace, on public transport, at leisure?

I noticed yesterday that a Toyota car factory in France wants to open up again, the MD is saying that he's worked with medics to create a system which is safe. Here

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-j-ai-la-conviction-que-l-on-met-en-place-les-bons-gestes-barrieres-declare-le-dirigeant-de-l-usine-toyota-d-onnaing-qui-va-rouvrir-le-21-avril_3910991.html

[prémont]

Shouldn't there be enough data now to calculate with confidence how the expectation of developing a serious form of the disease depends on age and preexisting conditions?

Maybe concerning age-dependence. One only needs a sufficiently large group of healthy elderly to say. But it is more unpredictable as to preexisting conditions, since they may have various degrees of illness and also various degrees of treatment and often are combined (a diabetic with heart disease e.g.). And after all you only obtain statistics, which don't say much about our individual risk, which always is somewhere between 0% and 100%.

[Herman]

Shouldn't there be enough data now to calculate with confidence how the expectation of developing a serious form of the disease depends on age and preexisting conditions?

Obesity, or BMI 30 and higher, seems to be a big factor, other than being age 65 plus.

Being male doesn't help either.

[MusicTurner]

Here they often say BMI 35+ - 40+.

Regarding normal influenza, our authorities said BMI 40+ back in 2019.

[prémont]

Here they often say BMI 35+ - 40+.

Regarding normal influenza, our authorities said BMI 40+ back in 2019.

I have lost much of my respect to the health authorities here (Sundhedsstyrelsen & Statens Seruminstitut). It becomes more and more evident, that they haven't been sufficiently alert.

[MusicTurner]

I agree, some obvious errors were made in handling and communication (parts were outsourced and privatized recently, it seems), but after all, those are probably measured statistics, not a question of efficiency. And they are trying to catch up, probably got more ressources too.

[ritter]

But isn't Denmark one of the countries that's best holding up in this crisis? I wish the Spanish administration (central and regional) had made Drnmark's mistakes   

[MusicTurner]

But isn't Denmark one of the countries that's best holding up in this crisis? I wish the Spanish administration (central and regional) had made Drnmark's mistakes   

Yes, overall it has so far been not so bad as feared, 273 fatalities in a population of almost 6 million, hospitalization curve going down, and ressources are not yet strained.  But there's been some problems with wrong advice and conflicting information, plus not being sufficiently prepared generally.

Sweden, by comparison, has many more fatalities and might be more strained, not to mention the Netherlands and Belgium, but Norway and Finland are probably the most successful in fighting the virus.

A big test is coming here, since a slow opening-up will start next week.

[milk]

Japan is a country of 127 million. Reported deaths from the virus are about 100. Actually, I don't know how to understand Japan. We are in a state of emergency and all schools are closed. Yet, deaths remain few.

[Herman]

Norway and Finland are probably the most successful in fighting the virus.

That's because they support Bernie Sanders, obviously.

[Mandryka]

HE IS RISEN

Talking about Boris Johnson

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/12/boris-johnson-leaves-hospital-as-he-continues-recovery-from-coronavirus

[MusicTurner]

Japan is a country of 127 million. Reported deaths from the virus are about 100. Actually, I don't know how to understand Japan. We are in a state of emergency and all schools are closed. Yet, deaths remain few.

Yes, New Zealand is another, insular example. But then, Vietnam is doing remarkably well too.



((obviously, in my post above, I was just relating to Denmark's ~neighbouring countries)).

[Mandryka]

Japan is a country of 127 million. Reported deaths from the virus are about 100. Actually, I don't know how to understand Japan. We are in a state of emergency and all schools are closed. Yet, deaths remain few.

Yes, there was a period like this in the UK about three weeks ago, or even less. I remember thinking "phoney war."

[Karl Henning]

"As New York – the US region with the highest number of positive COVID-19 cases – may be seeing cases slightly level off, other areas across the country are seeing rapid increases in the number of people infected.

[Below are charts] that show counties outside of the New York and New Jersey area that have the highest number of positive coronavirus cases, and how the virus is trending there. While not in the top 10, Massachusetts' Suffolk and Middlesex counties are at the 11th and 12th spots. (Boston is in Suffolk County, I reside in Middlesex)

For reference, New York City has 67,552 cases; Cook County in Illinois, the top of this list, has 8,043. All numbers are as of the end of the day April 5.

Cases per 1,000
When normalized for population, the picture changes.

For reference, New York City had 8.5 cases per 1,000 people as of April 5. Orleans Parish, which houses New Orleans, is the only area that exceeds this, with 10.4 cases. Three parishes in Louisiana are in the top 10, as is Massachusetts' Suffolk County."

[Mandryka]

Obesity, or BMI 30 and higher, seems to be a big factor, other than being age 65 plus.

Being male doesn't help either.

Perhaps we should tell all the fat blokes to stay at home for the next twelve months.

[Rinaldo]

[Mandryka]

"As New York – the US region with the highest number of positive COVID-19 cases – may be seeing cases slightly level off, other areas across the country are seeing rapid increases in the number of people infected.

[Below are charts] that show counties outside of the New York and New Jersey area that have the highest number of positive coronavirus cases, and how the virus is trending there. While not in the top 10, Massachusetts' Suffolk and Middlesex counties are at the 11th and 12th spots. (Boston is in Suffolk County, I reside in Middlesex)

For reference, New York City has 67,552 cases; Cook County in Illinois, the top of this list, has 8,043. All numbers are as of the end of the day April 5.

Cases per 1,000
When normalized for population, the picture changes.

For reference, New York City had 8.5 cases per 1,000 people as of April 5. Orleans Parish, which houses New Orleans, is the only area that exceeds this, with 10.4 cases. Three parishes in Louisiana are in the top 10, as is Massachusetts' Suffolk County."

If I understand right, it's pretty straightforward to predict when things will level off.

The average time from onset of symptoms to death is 18 days, and the disease incubates without symptoms for 5 days on average -- so a mean of 23 days from catching it to dying.

You should see a reduction in deaths about a month after social contact has been restricted, hospital admissions three weeks after.

[Karl Henning]

If I understand right, it's pretty straightforward to predict when things will level off.

The average time from onset of symptoms to death is 18 days, and the disease incubates without symptoms for 5 days on average -- so a mean of 23 days from catching it to dying.

You should see a reduction in deaths about a month after social contact has been restricted, hospital admissions three weeks after.

Reasonable.