The unimportant news thread

[Karl Henning]

The Guardian: Sooner or later, China will go the way of the Soviet Union.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/20/china-too-big-soviet-union-collapse-growth

This would not surprise me in the least and will be a greater humanitarian crisis.

[AnotherSpin]

This would not surprise me in the least and will be a greater humanitarian crisis.

There is no doubt that in order to avoid humanitarian crises, everyone should make efforts to keep totalitarian empires intact.

[Karl Henning]

There is no doubt that in order to avoid humanitarian crises, everyone should make efforts to keep totalitarian empires intact.

It's obvious to most people that this is a ridiculous construction to put upon my remark. But, if that's your idea of amusing yourself, knock yourself out.

[AnotherSpin]

It's obvious to most people that this is a ridiculous construction to put upon my remark. But, if that's your idea of amusing yourself, knock yourself out.

Personal attack is certainly a persuasive technique, I'm almost disarmed  

Unlike your most people, I see a direct connection. Putin declared the collapse of the USSR the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. And he justifies the current war against Ukraine with just such constructs. More interesting, however, is the stance of neoliberals and other useful idiots in the West, who call to understand Putin and accept interests of Russia, which supposedly has to defend itself.

[DavidW]

I'm going to head this off right now.  UNIMPORTANT NEWS only please... please no one reply to AS.

[BWV 1080]

This would not surprise me in the least and will be a greater humanitarian crisis.

Dont agree - China has a modern economy and an older, assimilated empire - current borders are smaller than what the Qing ruled in 1700 - really just Xinjiang and Tibet would be likely breakaways - unlike Russia, where the borders of the USSR represented late 18th cent to 20th century conquests. 

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

This would not surprise me in the least and will be a greater humanitarian crisis.

Before 1991 nobody thought that the Soviet Union would collapse. The Soviet regime/govt appeared to be more stable than China today. Even if the Chinese govt collapsed, Chinese people may not admit it and pretend that it is a transformation of the same government. Any way it will have a lot of impact on the world economy.

[T. D.]

The Guardian: Sooner or later, China will go the way of the Soviet Union.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/20/china-too-big-soviet-union-collapse-growth

"Sooner or later" covers a lot of ground. 

I distrust this prediction on many levels. Pundits who make these kinds of predictions are almost always wildly inaccurate. Oddly, such prognosticators never seem to bless us with post-mortems discussing why their various forecasts went wrong. Or keep their "batting average" of correct calls.

Seems unlikely indeed in the short-moderate term range. There (duh, no s**t, Sherlock) appears to be a worldwide trend toward authoritarianism. And I see no leading indicators analogous to the fall of the Berlin Wall, etc.

[Todd]

In the early-90s, then the mid-90s, then the late-90s, then the early-2000s, some very learned people stated with very great confidence that China would not overtake Japan and become the second largest economy.  Then it did.  Now some very learned people are sure China will collapse.  Maybe it will.  Or maybe it is wishful thinking.

[Karl Henning]

"Sooner or later" covers a lot of ground. 

I distrust this prediction on many levels. Pundits who make these kinds of predictions are almost always wildly inaccurate. Oddly, such prognosticators never seem to bless us with post-mortems discussing why their various forecasts went wrong. Or keep their "batting average" of correct calls.

Seems unlikely indeed in the short-moderate term range. There (duh, no s**t, Sherlock) appears to be a worldwide trend toward authoritarianism. And I see no leading indicators analogous to the fall of the Berlin Wall, etc.

All points well taken.

[Karl Henning]

Dont agree - China has a modern economy and an older, assimilated empire - current borders are smaller than what the Qing ruled in 1700 - really just Xinjiang and Tibet would be likely breakaways - unlike Russia, where the borders of the USSR represented late 18th cent to 20th century conquests. 

And you're right, too. I guess it is well that I don't mistake even my own opinions as expressed on an internet forum for sacred writ. Sometimes one just spitballs, and a beneficial result of that is, the lucid, well-thought refutations which come back.

Thanks, all.

[T. D.]

And you're right, too. I guess it is well that I don't mistake even my own opinions as expressed on an internet forum for sacred writ. Sometimes one just spitballs, and a beneficial result of that is, the lucid, well-thought refutations which come back.

Thanks, all.

I wouldn't say "refutation".
Maybe "reasons for scepticism" or "counter-arguments".

I enjoy a good story as much as the next person, but let's face it: prediction of complex systems is extremely difficult. Humans like to formulate neat theories and scenarios, but reality seldom is so orderly or cooperative. 

[Karl Henning]

I wouldn't say "refutation".
Maybe "reasons for scepticism" or "counter-arguments".

I enjoy a good story as much as the next person, but let's face it: prediction of complex systems is extremely difficult. Humans like to formulate neat theories and scenarios, but reality seldom is so orderly or cooperative. 

Corrigendum noted, good grace fort apprécié

[T. D.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-22/jpmorgan-s-most-prolific-spoofer-gets-two-years-in-prison

(paywall perhaps avoidable via incognito browsing).

The former head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s precious-metals desk and his top trader were sentenced to prison for spoofing, fraud and attempted market manipulation.

Michael Nowak, who ran gold and silver trading at the bank, and trader Gregg Smith were sentenced Tuesday in Chicago by US District Judge Edmond Chang. Nowak received a term of one year and one day while Smith was given two years, the stiffest sentence yet in a recent government crackdown on questionable trading practices.

Shocking. I've always considered the US legal system exceedingly soft on white-collar crime. The actions of these dillweeds must have been truly heinous for them to actually get jail time!

But stay tuned...they might still get off!

... Lawyers for both men said they planned to appeal their convictions....

[Karl Henning]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-22/jpmorgan-s-most-prolific-spoofer-gets-two-years-in-prison

(paywall perhaps avoidable via incognito browsing).

The former head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s precious-metals desk and his top trader were sentenced to prison for spoofing, fraud and attempted market manipulation.

Michael Nowak, who ran gold and silver trading at the bank, and trader Gregg Smith were sentenced Tuesday in Chicago by US District Judge Edmond Chang. Nowak received a term of one year and one day while Smith was given two years, the stiffest sentence yet in a recent government crackdown on questionable trading practices.

Shocking. I've always considered the US legal system exceedingly soft on white-collar crime. The actions of these dillweeds must have been truly heinous for them to actually get jail time!

But stay tuned...they might still get off!

... Lawyers for both men said they planned to appeal their convictions....

If these JP Morgan Chase guys can't afford the lawyers to get them off the hook, who can?

[T. D.]

Funny to Americans of a certain age. I once saw the Globetrotters live. [Added: reading the article, I was surprised to find the Trotters still exist. Had no idea!]


https://www.bbc.com/sport/basketball/66525597

On 5 January 1971, Louis Herman Klotz did something that no basketballer has dared repeat.

In front of a disbelieving audience in the city of Martin, Tennessee, the man known as Red broke one of the most sacred unwritten rules in sport. As player-coach for the Washington Generals, Klotz shot the winning basket against the Harlem Globetrotters.

Everybody knows the Generals aren't supposed to beat the Globetrotters.

[Karl Henning]

Funny to Americans of a certain age. I once saw the Globetrotters live. [Added: reading the article, I was surprised to find the Trotters still exist. Had no idea!]


https://www.bbc.com/sport/basketball/66525597

On 5 January 1971, Louis Herman Klotz did something that no basketballer has dared repeat.

In front of a disbelieving audience in the city of Martin, Tennessee, the man known as Red broke one of the most sacred unwritten rules in sport. As player-coach for the Washington Generals, Klotz shot the winning basket against the Harlem Globetrotters.

Everybody knows the Generals aren't supposed to beat the Globetrotters.

I saw them live once, too! What fun!

[LKB]

I saw them live once, too! What fun!

Water or confetti?

[AnotherSpin]

Before 1991 nobody thought that the Soviet Union would collapse. The Soviet regime/govt appeared to be more stable than China today. Even if the Chinese govt collapsed, Chinese people may not admit it and pretend that it is a transformation of the same government. Any way it will have a lot of impact on the world economy.

Of course, in the late 80s it was hard to imagine that the USSR would suddenly disappear. It was not supposed to. Perhaps not everyone remembers, but the Russian Federation was the first of the major Soviet republics to secede from the USSR. In fact, it was just a move in the power struggle in the top Party leadership, between Yeltsin and Gorbachev. As soon as Gorbachev was ousted, a new consolidation process began and the so-called CIS was created. This was not much different from the way the USSR was created in 1922 soon after the collapse of tsarist Russia. In fact, the final collapse of the USSR (now Russia) is happening only now, when Russia is fighting its last and most likely decisive war to preserve the Empire.

And I find the comparison between China and the USSR very frivolous. China is a great power that has existed for thousands of years and has gone through numerous periods of ups and downs, a country of immense cultural heritage. While the USSR was a pathetic short-lived formation, stillborn from the very beginning, which existed largely on terror and murder.

[Karl Henning]

Water or confetti?

That I do not recall.