Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60448162)
While the US was busy fighting the phantoms of 9/11 and subsequently went on a course of political implosion, and while Britain was playing Little Empire, Putin was setting the stage for his 1930's playbook. After he annexed the Crimea and supported armed seperatist forces in the South East of the Ukraine, he has now ammased his troops to go for the big prise.
China is waiting in the wings to watch Western influence falter, so it can invade Taiwan and move aggressively in the South China Sea to break the political and economic resistance by the ASEAN countries against its objective of total hegemony in South East Asia.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/41DD/production/_123316861_russia_troop_positions_19feb_2x640map-nc.png)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLzf135XoAESGXA?format=jpg&name=large)
UK scraps rich foreign investor visa scheme (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60410844)
Too little, too late...
The London City has played the role of Switzerland in the previous century: a safe heaven for dirty money and people with dirty hands.
I think that US retreat from Europe, the chaos at the end of Trump's presidency, the chaos and Anglo-American retreat from Afghanistan and Brexit have all encouraged Putin's expansionist plans. The self-congratulatory NATO response to 'victory' in the Cold War has only antagonised Putin. Putin may have tolerated a puppet state on Russia's borders (as in Byelorussia) but not a democratic one like current Ukraine. Putin will fear the spread on genuine democracy into Russia. I find Boris Johnson's grandstanding and mock-churchillian posturing to be nothing more than an attempt to divert attention away from his incompetent and dishonest leadership.
Olympic buddies:
(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/2news.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/98/69857e9e-8d2a-5fb0-8f01-45474f7bb52b/61fbc0ab5fce2.image.jpg?resize=1396%2C930)
Analysis: China would back Russia, diplomatically, if it moved on Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/china-would-back-russia-diplomatically-if-it-moved-ukraine-2022-02-19/)
Putin unveils new gas deal with China's Xi as Moscow locks horns with the West (https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20220204-putin-unveils-new-gas-deal-with-china-s-xi-as-moscow-locks-horns-with-the-west)
Western leaders worried as China joins Russia in NATO expansion row (https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20220219-western-leaders-worried-as-china-joins-russia-in-nato-expansion-row)
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 01:46:00 AM
UK scraps rich foreign investor visa scheme (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60410844)
Too little, too late...
The London City has played the role of Switzerland in the previous century: a safe heaven for dirty money and people with dirty hands.
This Swiss/Channel islands/Bahamas/whatever model is easy money for the collaborators. It would have been very easy for powerful countries (like US or even UK, France, Germany if acting together) to stop this long ago (as well as tax havens), but I guess that too many of the powerful people in these powerful western countries also benefit from this. Just another nail in the coffin of our pathetic civilization...
Quote from: vandermolen on February 20, 2022, 02:25:41 AM
I think that US retreat from Europe, the chaos at the end of Trump's presidency, the chaos and Anglo-American retreat from Afghanistan and Brexit have all encouraged Putin's expansionist plans. The self-congratulatory NATO response to 'victory' in the Cold War has only antagonised Putin. Putin may have tolerated a puppet state on Russia's borders (as in Byelorussia) but not a democratic one like current Ukraine. Putin will fear the spread on genuine democracy into Russia. I find Boris Johnson's grandstanding and mock-churchillian posturing to be nothing more than an attempt to divert attention away from his incompetent and dishonest leadership.
It's sad, but the West has dropped the ball and the geopolitical consequences might be grave.
I don't see Putin backing down: the timing is perfect and the risks very limited.
Quote from: Jo498 on February 20, 2022, 02:34:01 AM
This Swiss/Channel islands/Bahamas/whatever model is easy money for the collaborators. It would have been very easy for powerful countries (like US or even UK, France, Germany if acting together) to stop this long ago (as well as tax havens), but I guess that too many of the powerful people in these powerful western countries also benefit from this. Just another nail in the coffin of our pathetic civilization...
Agreed. It's seems that the drive for money in the Western system is stronger than the instict of self-preservation, and of course morality...
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 12:59:09 AM
Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60448162)
While the US was busy fighting the phantoms of 9/11 and subsequently went on a course of political implosion ...
Not to exonerate the US entirely, but it's worth pointing out that the political implosion in the US was also a goal of Putin's towards which he worked actively.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 20, 2022, 02:56:05 AM
Not to exonerate the US entirely, but it's worth pointing out that the political implosion in the US was also a goal of Putin's towards which he worked actively.
He worked with fertile ground, but of course it is definitely true that Russia's cyber warfare helped things along.
In a way, Russia declared war on the West years ago but we just didn't (want to) realise it.
For those up for a long read, here is an (very) extensive analysis by the Washington based Centre for Strategic & International Studies:
Russia's Possible Invasion of Ukraine (//http://)
A pick from the many interesting points touched upon:
"Russian Military Options:
1. Redeploy some of its ground forces away from the Ukrainian border—at least temporarily—if negotiations are successful but continue to aid pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine.
2. Send conventional Russian troops into the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as unilateral "peacekeepers" and refuse to withdraw them until peace talks end successfully and Kiev agrees to implement the Minsk Accords.
3. Seize Ukrainian territory as far west as the Dnepr River to use as a bargaining chip or incorporate this new territory fully into the Russian Federation. This option is represented in Figure 2a.
4. Seize Ukrainian territory up to the Dnepr River and seize an additional belt of land (to include Odessa) that connects Russian territory with the breakaway Transdniestria Republic and separates Ukraine from any access to the Black Sea. The Kremlin would incorporate these new lands into Russia and ensure that the rump Ukrainian statelet remains economically unviable.
5. Seize only a belt of land between Russia and Transdniestria (including Mariupol, Kherson, and Odessa) to secure freshwater supplies for Crimea and block Ukraine's access to the sea, while avoiding major combat over Kiev and Kharkiv. This option is represented in Figure 2b.
6. Seize all of Ukraine and, with Belarus, announce the formation of a new tripartite Slavic union of Great, Little, and White Russians (Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians). This option would involve operations represented in Figure 2a as "phase one," with Figure 2c representing "phase two" of this option."
My money is on option 4 as the ultimate goal: annexing the East and the South of present Ukraine and reducing the remainder of the Ukraine to a puppet state. As if the annexation of Odessa region wouldn't be a sufficient wake up call for Romania (!), I think Putin next move would be on Moldova....
The territories that Putin might be after:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine.png/800px-2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine.png)
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 02:36:31 AM
It's sad, but the West has dropped the ball and the geopolitical consequences might be grave.
I don't see Putin backing down: the timing is perfect and the risks very limited.
Sadly I agree.
I was skeptical for a while, but now that the " exercise " in Belarus has been extended and the Olympics are essentially concluded, I suspect Putin will pull the trigger between now and Tuesday.
Hopefully I'm wrong...
US hegemony has been fading for years, unity in "The West" has faltered, and the world is moving back to a multi-polar framework. Post-war institutions are failing, though some or many may linger for years to come. The US must begin to reassess commitments around the world and determine if it makes more sense to cling so much to the Old World and legacy alliances, or shift focus to more overt hemispheric domination to procure stable physical resource availability and then selectively engage with current allies - and/or "enemies" as needed - to meet shifting economic and security needs. The US will continue to possess some advantages for years to come, not the least of which are two big oceans, so limited military engagement offshore balancing would serve as a useful possible grand strategy.
The fate of Ukraine and other individual nation-states may not have a material or even any impact on US security or economic interests. Taiwan is of course different given the questionable series of decisions that led it to become so crucial a source of critical contemporary resources (eg, semiconductors), but judicious mercantilist policy choices - subsidies, tariffs, and non-tariff trade barriers - can help bolster critical industries domestically. Nothing happening now necessitates direct American military action, and if Russia does invade Ukraine - and Biden said the decision has already been made to do so - then the decline of relative American power and the weakening of post-war institutions will accelerate slightly, or maybe more than slightly. Perhaps, if Russia does invade Ukraine and faces only sanctions, retaliatory cyber warfare, and sternly worded memoranda in response (though it seems tactical destabilization policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia could also be pursued), then maybe he eyes the Baltic nations to put NATO to a real test. That seems like a very European problem.
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 03:47:41 AM
As if the annexation of Odessa region wouldn't be a sufficient wake up call for Romania (!), I think Putin next move would be on Moldova....
And I think his ultimate target is actually Constantinople. ;D
Too much panic and hysteria. There will be no war.
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 07:58:12 AM
And I think his ultimate target is actually Constantinople. ;D
Too much panic and hysteria. There will be no war.
You know best! ;)
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 07:58:12 AMToo much panic and hysteria. There will be no war.
There is war now, just localized to specific regions of Ukraine, purportedly with 14,000+ dead over the past eight years. That can continue, it can expand slightly, it can expand a lot, it can recede - there are multiple options for Russia. There are multiple possible responses for "The West" - not including direct military intervention.
Quote from: Todd on February 20, 2022, 08:06:44 AM
There is war now, just localized to specific regions of Ukraine, purportedly with 14,000+ dead over the past eight years. That can continue, it can expand slightly, it can expand a lot, it can recede - there are multiple options for Russia. There are multiple possible responses for "The West" - not including direct military intervention.
Correct.
Quote from: Todd on February 20, 2022, 08:06:44 AM
There is war now, just localized to specific regions of Ukraine, purportedly with 14,000+ dead over the past eight years.
Yes. I think, though, that there will be no all-out war between Russia and Ukraine. As for scenarios regarding massive annexations of Ukrainian lands, as far as the border with Romania (!), I find them far-fetched in the extreme.
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 08:15:06 AM
Yes. I think, though, that there will be no all-out war between Russia and Ukraine. As for scenarios regarding massive annexations of Ukrainian lands, as far as the border with Romania (!), I find them far-fetched in the extreme.
I agree, especially since Russia does not need that to achieve larger strategic aims. Bolstering control of the southeast of the country and splitting Ukraine in two could achieve many or all aims. The strategic benefit of unfettered access to and control of a warm water port cannot be overstated, and reducing the potential land area from which potential enemies could launch attacks - real or imagined - also has benefits. The political benefits of creating fissures within NATO are also sizeable.
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 08:15:06 AM
Yes. I think, though, that there will be no all-out war between Russia and Ukraine. As for scenarios regarding massive annexations of Ukrainian lands, as far as the border with Romania (!), I find them far-fetched in the extreme.
We don't know what is going to happen and what risks Putin is willing to take.
But why would this scenario be far fetched to the extreme? This is what Russian supported seperatists have been aiming for right from the start and it offers the most strategic advantages for Putin. Why would he take the risks involved with an invasion for anything less? If not for this, he might just as well back off all together ... And why would he do that after going through all of this?
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 08:31:25 AM
We don't know what is going to happen and what risks Putin is willing to take.
The articles you mentioned do know very well what is going to happen, don't they? Generally speaking, the Western media is full of experts who know exactly what will happen and when (Feb 16 is overdue but I'm sure they'll come up with another date).
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 08:36:52 AM
The articles you mentioned do know very well what is going to happen, don't they? Generally speaking, the Western media is full of experts who know exactly what will happen and when (Feb 16 is overdue but I'm sure they'll come up with another date).
There is a reason why I think they might very well be right. BTW we are talking, amongst others, about US and British intelligence. Putin is, besides vindictive, very much a calculating man. For him there is a lot of upside to continue with this course of action, and little downside. He knows the West is bluffing and powerless. If he was afraid of Western sanctions, he wouldn't have taken the Crimea. That was a Sudetenland-style testcase. And now sanctions are already in place, what does he have to lose? As Todd pointed out, the West cannot intervene militarily, and China will have Putin's back. I cannot think of any reason that could deter Putin to go ahead.
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 03:09:34 AM
He worked with fertile ground, but of course it is definitely true that Russia's cyber warfare helped things along.
In a way, Russia declared war on the West years ago but we just didn't (want to) realise it.
All too true.
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 08:47:32 AM
If he was afraid of Western sanctions, he wouldn't take the Crimea.
Crimea was NEVER Ukrainian territory until Khrushchev transferred it from Russia to Ukraine. So technically Putin annexed no Ukrainian proper territory.
As for the current crisis, we'll see. I still believe a massive military conflict is unlikely.
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 08:47:32 AMand China will have Putin's back.
Yes, but only to an extent. A more cautious view of Chinese support: Why China Will Not Support a Russian Invasion of Ukraine (https://thediplomat.com/2022/02/why-china-will-not-support-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/)
And besides, everyone needs to give Macron a chance in this election year: Live: France says Putin, Macron agree to work for ceasefire in Ukraine (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220220-putin-macron-discuss-need-to-step-up-diplomacy-on-ukraine)
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 08:55:42 AM
Crimea was NEVER Ukrainian territory until Khrushchev transferred it from Russia to Ukraine. So technically Putin annexed no Ukrainian proper territory.
So what is "Ukrainian proper" territory and what is not? I know what Putin would argue.. .
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cc/Simplified_historical_map_of_Ukrainian_borders_1654-2014.jpg/800px-Simplified_historical_map_of_Ukrainian_borders_1654-2014.jpg?20140307220926)
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 09:58:26 AM
So what is "Ukrainian proper" territory and what is not?
That's actually a good question.
Btw, among those regions added in 1939-45 there are centuries-old Romanian territories annexed by Stalin. Among those added in 1922 there are centuries-old Romanian territories annexed by the Tsarist Russia. We have no territorial claims over Ukraine, but history is what it is. If you ask me, present-day Ukraine is an artificial state.
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 10:12:31 AM
That's actually a good question.
Btw, among those regions added in 1939-45 there are centuries-old Romanian territories annexed by Stalin. We have no territorial claims over Ukraine, but history is what it is. If you ask me, present-day Ukraine is an artificial state.
I think Putin wants the territories that were part of Imperial Russia, he wants Odessa back.
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 10:14:51 AM
I think Putin wants the territories back that were part of Imperial Russia, he wants Odessa back.
Crimea is populated mostly by Russian-speaking persons. Odessa is mostly Ukrainian-speaking, It won't be that easy.
Quote from: Que on February 20, 2022, 03:09:34 AM
He worked with fertile ground, but of course it is definitely true that Russia's cyber warfare helped things along.
In a way, Russia declared war on the West years ago but we just didn't (want to) realise it.
It was "fake news".
One might conclude that Putin got surprisingly little from Trump, in that US foreign policy makers never really embraced TrumPutinism.
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 10:21:08 AM
Crimea is populated mostly by Russian-speaking persons. Odessa is mostly Ukrainian-speaking, It won't be that easy.
Putin will do what it takes.
I think Putin has a set of goals with a minimum he'll settle for. That could be concessions from the US/NATO, or strategic territorial gains. A land grab reduces the already low prospect of concessions to near zero.
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 10:21:08 AM
Crimea is populated mostly by Russian-speaking persons. Odessa is mostly Ukrainian-speaking, It won't be that easy.
What happened to "artificial"? Common language seems to me among the least artificial of criteria for nationhood, even though it doesn't amount to a
casus belli.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 20, 2022, 10:41:06 AM
Putin will do what it takes.
Putin will do what he can get away with at what he views to be an acceptable cost. Taking all of Ukraine would result in a much higher level of targeting Russian elites all over the world, something that should have been done long ago.
Why the West's Diplomacy With Russia Keeps Failing (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-russia-diplomacy-ukraine/622075/)
Putin's goal is not a flourishing, peaceful, prosperous Russia, but a Russia where he remains in charge. Lavrov's goal is to maintain his position in the murky world of the Russian elite and, of course, to keep his money. What we mean by "interests" and what they mean by "interests" are not the same. When they listen to our diplomats, they don't hear anything that really threatens their position, their power, their personal fortunes.
Despite all of our talk, no one has ever seriously tried to end, rather than simply limit, Russian money laundering in the West, or Russian political or financial influence in the West. No one has taken seriously the idea that Germans should now make themselves independent of Russian gas, or that France should ban political parties that accept Russian money, or that the U.K. and the U.S. should stop Russian oligarchs from buying property in London or Miami. No one has suggested that the proper response to Putin's information war on our political system would be an information war on his. Simply put, Russia is a mafia state and the rest of the world finds it easier to pretend it's a normal state to avoid unpleasantness. No wonder Putin, Lavrov and the rest have contempt for the people they encounter who try to negotiate with them.
Quote from: drogulus on February 20, 2022, 10:58:17 AMSimply put, Russia is a mafia state and the rest of the world finds it easier to pretend it's a normal state to avoid unpleasantness. No wonder Putin, Lavrov and the rest have contempt for the people they encounter who try to negotiate with them.
Yes.
While Macron is trying to broker a last minute talk between Biden and Putin, Moscow tells us that the assumption that such talks will take place is "premature" and London tells us that the operation has already been set in motion:
PM says Putin invasion plan 'already begun' as US claims Russia has dissident 'kill list' (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-news-war-putin-invade-latest-b2019418.html)
It seems that Putin is going to be ruthless. My bet is still on a serious military assault with the aim of extensive annexations of territories in the East and South.
The voice of reason:
Ukraine crisis: Five reasons why Putin might not invade (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60468264)
But...
Set against all of the above are some very compelling reasons to believe that a Russian invasion will happen, and imminently, even if it is confined to just the two internationally unrecognised breakaway republics in the east of Ukraine.
The size, scale and nature of Russia's military build-up go far beyond the needs of a normal military exercise. You don't ask soldiers to give blood to field dressing stations if you're just on manoeuvres.
Moscow's two core demands from the West remain unmet, namely a promise that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato and that the western alliance withdraw all its forces from countries that joined Nato after 1997.
He's shit scared of former Soviet territories over time showing economic development that is not possible in cleptocratic Russia, and will do anything to destabilize Ucraine to avoid it. At least that is one element that has been downplayed.
VP will be addressing the nation this evening, following the staged 'security council meeting', that was pre-recorded around noon today, with some very weak participants. It's important whether he'll recognize just the LPR and the DPR, or claim that further Ukranian territories belong to them, or perhaps announce other measures than that.
VPs very long, historically orientated speech, obviously not written today and attacking the West and Ukraine, only concluded with a brief acknowledging of LPR and DPR, in a few sentences.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 21, 2022, 10:42:55 AM
VPs very long, historically orientated speech, attacking the West and Ukraine, only concluded with a brief acknowledging of LPR and DPR, in a few sentences.
The recognition opens the way for a request for military assistance by "sovereign" entities, so Putin has now a pretext to move his army into the East of the Ukraine.
VP has now already ordered the 'peacekeeping mission' soldiers for LPR and DPR.
The recognition decision answers some questions but others remain. There is a chance Putin may simply recognise the two republics "as they are". This, after months of apocalyptic scenarios, would probably be privately accepted as a good outcome by Ukraine and the west.
But it seems likely that Putin has much more in mind than simply taking a nibble out of Ukraine's east and taking formal responsibility for territories he already de facto controlled.
Putin's final words, that if Kyiv did not stop the violence they would bear responsibility for the "ensuing bloodshed", were ominous in the extreme. It sounded, quite simply, like a declaration of war.
Putin's absurd, angry spectacle will be a turning point in his long reign (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/putin-angry-spectacle-amounts-to-declaration-war-ukraine)
As usual there have been any number of experts saying Putin would not invade, it was just a game of pressuring the west.
The notion that yesterday's spectacle will be 'a turning point' for Putin's reputation in Russia is just another of these expert pieces, even though we, in the West, have clear examples how this works.
Did Jan 6 make Trump afficionados think differently about Trump? Did 'grab by the pussy' change anyone's mind? No it didn't, because Trumpites live in an information vacuum. Russia in its entirety is an information vacuum and this whole weird revolting spectacle of the Leader berating his security council and giving a snore speech afterwards should be seen with different eyes.
Quote from: Herman on February 21, 2022, 10:51:59 PM
As usual there have been any number of experts saying Putin would not invade, it was just a game of pressuring the west.
The notion that yesterday's spectacle will be 'a turning point' for Putin's reputation in Russia is just another of these expert pieces, even though we, in the West, have clear examples how this works.
Did Jan 6 make Trump afficionados think differently about Trump? Did 'grab by the pussy' change anyone's mind? No it didn't, because Trumpites live in an information vacuum. Russia in its entirety is an information vacuum and this whole weird revolting spectacle of the Leader berating his security council and giving a snore speech afterwards should be seen with different eyes.
Agreed. Putin controls the domestic media and the Russian population has been carefully prepped with a suitable narrative.
If Johnson & co. can convince a small majority of the Brits that the EU is their enemy, why wouldn't Putin get away with this?
Russian troops crossed the border with Ukraine, so the invasion is a fact.
Interesting "detail": Russia will recognise the independence of the Donetsk and Luhanks regions in their entirety, not just the 1/3 held by separatists.
So the secenario will be to "liberate" the rest of these territories from the Ukraine, that already has been accused of committing "genocide". Naturally, any resistance by the Ukrainian army will considered as an hostile act that has to be countered with the crushing force of the Russian army.
The 'entirety legitimizing' is so far an exaggeration due to Max Seddon's reporting; he has retracted the story's certainness; it is based on an inferior Russian parliament member's expressed opinion (named Kalashnikov, actually ...), and before any exact proposal has been made.
But concerning the various scenarios - the low-key annexation of just LPR/DPR as a relatively easy way out of the conflict, versus a bigger war - Putin's speech yesterday, delegitimizing Ukraine as a Western, evil colony, can be a basis for further invasions.
The West will begin with insignificant sanctions, hoping for the quieter outcome, and reserve sanction force for a bigger invasion. Unless of course, that the big invasion begins very quickly.
As could have been predicted years ago, Europe's dependency on Russian gas was a very bad move.
The minute sanctions kick in, Putin will cut the gas.
The Duma recognition was done without specifying borders. The Duma functioned as a rubber stamp with 100% of votes and a standing ovation.
Scholz has just pointed to a halt of NordStream2. It's surprisingly early, and apparently it's with immediate effect.
As an aside, a bird I see whenever I (not recently, of course) travel to the Samara oblast msg'd me a couple of days ago that large numbers of Russian troops were passing through the area. The garrison there is virtually empty now. She didn't try to get too close to the convoys as the security was intense and none-too-friendly. Although ethnically Russian, she was born/raised in Ukraine - not much enthusiasm for war among her circle of friends - lots of anxiety about what might happen. :-X
Ukraine Isn't the Only Target of Putin's Aggression (https://www.thebulwark.com/ukraine-isnt-only-target-putins-aggression/)
So after Pooty Poot recognized the two breakaway regions of Ukraine, something no other country did, the US responded by stating it would impose sanctions on the same breakaway regions. Perhaps there are specialists in international law here who can explain how the US can impose sanctions on specific regions without de facto recognizing them.
Looks like some Louisiana and Texas ports may be in for a busy spring.
Quote from: Todd on February 22, 2022, 06:51:39 AM
So after Pooty Poot recognized the two breakaway regions of Ukraine, something no other country did, the US responded by stating it would impose sanctions on the same breakaway regions. Perhaps there are specialists in international law here who can explain how the US can impose sanctions on specific regions without de facto recognizing them.
Looks like some Louisiana and Texas ports may be in for a busy spring.
By doing what he actually did: putting sanctions on Americans who do business there.
As sanctions go, it's rsther weak, although we're told there will be more announced later today.
I confess that I think the only course of action that would make Putin back off is precisely the one course of action Biden has ruled out: US troops in the Ukraine ready to actually fight a war.
As feared, Putin has now declared recognition of the DPR and LPR, including the wider Ukrainian territories they claim, and got his council's allowance for deploying troops for any missions abroad.
EDIT: says that Russian troops won't invade now, but threatens with them.
I think this is all to create a forward base-of-operations for the invasion of ........
. . . OF . . .
..........................Romania! Run, Florestan, RUN!
Quote from: JBS on February 22, 2022, 07:43:57 AM
By doing what he actually did: putting sanctions on Americans who do business there.
But the sanctions still explicitly recognize two specific regions that are part of a sovereign nation-state that the US recognizes. The sanctions now are limited and weak. What will be informative is whether Biden would still be willing to meet with Putin.
The order bars "new investment, trade and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in" the so-called Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, located in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement.
The order also provides authority to impose sanctions on "any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine,"
I think advertising this as "sanctions" is a far stretch. These measures are not imposed on the territories as legal entities.
It's basically a trade ban targeting US companies to refrain from doing business with anyone in these rebel held territories.
Purely symbolic and even as such highly insignificant, I would say....
UK sanctions even more insignificant - but all these sanctions were sketched before the events this evening.
It's unlikely that Ukraine can accept Putin's stated demands of a recognition of a Russian Crimea, a de-militarization of Ukraine, and bigger Donbas 'republics'.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 22, 2022, 07:48:41 AM
I think this is all to create a forward base-of-operations for the invasion of ........
. . . OF . . .
..........................Romania! Run, Florestan, RUN!
Oh, yeah, I'm so terrified that I can't sleep anymore.
Quote from: Todd on February 22, 2022, 07:54:58 AM
The sanctions now are limited and weak.
You kidding? All those Donbas corporations about to be listed on NYSE. All those big money the US investors were eagerly waiting to pour on Donbas. It's an economic catastrophe of epic proportions for both Donbas and Russia.
Quote from: JBS on February 22, 2022, 07:43:57 AM
I confess that I think the only course of action that would make Putin back off is precisely the one course of action Biden has ruled out: US troops in the Ukraine ready to actually fight a war.
Are you really of the opinion that Ukraine's territorial integrity is of such a paramount importance to the US, or the world at large, that it's worth risking WWIII in order to preserve it?
Quote from: Florestan on February 22, 2022, 08:35:14 AM
Are you really of the opinion that Ukraine's territorial integrity is of such a paramount importance to the US, or the world at large, that it's worth risking WWIII in order to preserve it?
The principle of territorial integrity is of paramount importance. Putin needs to be slapped down hard now because he wasn't slapped down earlier.
Quote from: JBS on February 22, 2022, 08:41:51 AM
The principle of territorial integrity is of paramount importance.
It sure is. Tell that to Serbia.
QuotePutin needs to be slapped down hard now because he wasn't slapped down earlier.
Well, I've got news for you: he won't be slapped, either hard or soft. He'll annex Donbas (by way of referenda, of course) and the rest of the world will grudgingly acquiesce, just as in the case of Crimea. I repeat: nobody in the West is willing to risk war with Russia over two regions in Eastern Ukraine which are inhabited mostly by Russians anyway --- and thank God for that. Incidentally, the existence of a sizeable Russian minority in the Republic of Moldavia is precisely the reason why I will vote against union with Romania in the unlikely event that a referendum will be held on the issue. Bringing into Romania all those Russians and thus giving Putin a pretext to interfere in our politics would be sheer madness, if not plain treason. Those who agitate the idea of reunification are irresponsible lunatics.
I'm an intractable political Russophobe but honestly I fail to see what is so unprecedented in a great power's attempt to expand / rebuild its sphere of influence? Those other great powers which are without sin in this respect, let them cast the first stone.
Quote from: Florestan on February 22, 2022, 08:35:14 AM
Are you really of the opinion that Ukraine's territorial integrity is of such a paramount importance to the US, or the world at large, that it's worth risking WWIII in order to preserve it?
WWIII will not occur as a result of Putin's misbehavior.
Quote from: JBS on February 22, 2022, 08:41:51 AM
The principle of territorial integrity is of paramount importance. Putin needs to be slapped down hard now because he wasn't slapped down earlier.
Since Putin faced no real consequences in 2008 or 2014, it seems quite unlikely that he will face anything especially damaging now. Sanctions, cyberwarfare, and regional destabilization are the policy responses available. Unless one counts stern condemnation at the UN. Or maybe Putin can be tried as a war criminal, as one op-ed in the Graun suggested.
Quote from: Todd on February 22, 2022, 10:38:38 AM
WWIII will not occur as a result of Putin's misbehavior.
Since Putin faced no real consequences in 2008 or 2014, it seems quite unlikely that he will face anything especially damaging now. Sanctions, cyberwarfare, and regional destabilization are the policy responses available. Unless one counts stern condemnation at the UN. Or maybe Putin can be tried as a war criminal, as one op-ed in the Graun suggested.
In fact I suspect you are right on all counts.
Especially about the UN, where the Presidency of the Security Counsel is held at the moment by...Russia.
Quote from: Florestan on February 22, 2022, 09:07:14 AM
It sure is. Tell that to Serbia.
Well, I've got news for you: he won't be slapped, either hard or soft. He'll annex Donbas (by way of referenda, of course) and the rest of the world will grudgingly acquiesce, just as in the case of Crimea. I repeat: nobody in the West is willing to risk war with Russia over two regions in Eastern Ukraine which are inhabited mostly by Russians anyway --- and thank God for that. Incidentally, the existence of a sizeable Russian minority in the Republic of Moldavia is precisely the reason why I will vote against union with Romania in the unlikely event that a referendum will be held on the issue. Bringing into Romania all those Russians and thus giving Putin a pretext to interfere in our politics would be sheer madness, if not plain treason. Those who agitate the idea of reunification are irresponsible lunatics.
I'm an intractable political Russophobe but honestly I fail to see what is so unprecedented in a great power's attempt to expand / rebuild its sphere of influence? Those other great powers which are without sin in this respect, let them cast the first stone.
Your predictions are probably correct especially if Putin confines himself to those two regions (only he may well not). But now the pattern is set: don't be greedy but take consecutive small bites so you'll get it all in the end.
Robbery enforced by superior military power is of course precedented (see f.i US Army and Mexico/Native Americans) but that does not mean it's a good thing.
Whatever one thinks about the status of international conceptions of justice, it's largely a matter of norms that are enforced and not merely declared. Putin must be stopped where possible because more war will come if he isn't. This is not because an abstract justice claim requires it, but because of the real consequences of determining that no concrete life and death claims matter for people that, for now, are imagined as far away.
Time pressure:
Harsh conditions mean Russian troops near Ukraine will need to be moved soon.
Analysis: advance forces' battle readiness will quickly degrade, giving Putin only days to choose invasion or retreat (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/harsh-conditions-mean-russian-troops-near-ukraine-will-need-to-be-moved-soon)
Florestan is essentially right. (choke, gag!) :P
At least until the other members of the Russian regime tire of Putin's antics and financial-suicide from year after year of these sanctions, and he 'dies of natural causes' or some other method of removal. But I doubt they ever pull out of the Donbas, and will use the principle of self-determination as grounds. If the map of the cadaver of the USSR had been cut up correctly, perhaps a lot of this would never have happened in the first place. And every year that goes by solidifies the Russian position.
Anyway, combat between NATO and the RF is off the table.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 23, 2022, 07:14:15 AM
If the map of the cadaver of the USSR had been cut up correctly, perhaps a lot of this would never have happened in the first place.
That map was incorrectly drawn right from the beginning of the USSR. All the current mess is the direct consequence of Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev playing puzzle with whole regions and countries.
Terrible strain on the Ukrainian population. The 3 mio, often poor Ukrainians in Russia are recommended to go home, there's a partial state of emergency, and now US intelligence has informed Zelensky that a big invasion is expected imminently, including at Kharkiv.
Putin's weird words about him providing a 'pre-communist Ukraine' are probably related to his crazy lecture on Ukrainian history, and according to which Ukraine should be only a half or less of its current area. Maps of this have been presented on major Russian television channels in recent days.
Went to a demonstration by the Russian embassy this afternoon.
Quote from: Florestan on February 22, 2022, 09:07:14 AM
It sure is. Tell that to Serbia.
Well, I've got news for you: he won't be slapped, either hard or soft. He'll annex Donbas (by way of referenda, of course) and the rest of the world will grudgingly acquiesce, just as in the case of Crimea. I repeat: nobody in the West is willing to risk war with Russia over two regions in Eastern Ukraine which are inhabited mostly by Russians anyway --- and thank God for that. Incidentally, the existence of a sizeable Russian minority in the Republic of Moldavia is precisely the reason why I will vote against union with Romania in the unlikely event that a referendum will be held on the issue. Bringing into Romania all those Russians and thus giving Putin a pretext to interfere in our politics would be sheer madness, if not plain treason. Those who agitate the idea of reunification are irresponsible lunatics.
I'm an intractable political Russophobe but honestly I fail to see what is so unprecedented in a great power's attempt to expand / rebuild its sphere of influence? Those other great powers which are without sin in this respect, let them cast the first stone.
what's the likelihood of such a referendum passing?
A lot of intel suggesting that the invasion is beginning now.
Several sources foretold it, and an ensuing bloodbath, weeks ago, partly based on wargames tried by Western intelligence in November. Russia would 'win' the war. Strangely, back in December, even the ~rogue Russian politician Zhirinovsky predicted 'historical events' around the 22nd of February.
The amount of information is probably going to be less coherent quite soon.
From what I am reading, it seems like prognostications that this would be a limited action in which Russia occupies separatist provinces which are already in open rebellion against the central government of the Ukraine were wrong. It seems like a large scale invasion of the Ukraine has begun.
Kyiv is being rocketed at this time (command & control, gov't offices). Reports of casualties. :(
Missile attacks! Kyiv Airport has been hit, command & control facilities, gov't offices - hundreds of casualties reported.
Russian troops landed in Odessa. On the move.
Pray this ends IMMEDIATELY. Or someone in the RF regime takes Putin out in the next few hours to stop this madness.
Correction. Artillery strikes on Kharkiv.
CNN reporting that Ukraine gov't has stated troops of both Belarus and Russia attacking on the northern border outposts. Still photos of cruise missile attacks.
Quote from: Florestan on February 20, 2022, 08:15:06 AM
Yes. I think, though, that there will be no all-out war between Russia and Ukraine. As for scenarios regarding massive annexations of Ukrainian lands, as far as the border with Romania (!), I find them far-fetched in the extreme.
Putin will soon be at your doorstep....
I guess the prospect was too gloomy to even consider the possibility.
Apparently Putin's declaration of war was recorded already on Monday.
Thinking of the packed Odessa opera house where I've witnessed a hilariously terrible production of La traviata back in 2019. Relatives of my colleagues are fleeing the city right now. I'll spare you the expletives but my veins are flooded by pure hate for that heinous little apparatchik.
With this move, Putin joins the ranks of the Mongol Khans, Hitler and Mao.
Good going, you five-foot little tin-horn unbalanced murderer.
The main aim should be now to cripple, and if possible: destroy, the Russian economy.
But this will be hard to achieve and will come at a price...
Quote from: Que on February 23, 2022, 11:03:39 PM
Putin will soon be at your doorstep....
I guess the prospect was too gloomy to even consider the possibility.
I thought Putin was a scoundrel but not a crazy one. I was wrong, he's insane.
The big problem is he does what he does not so much because he's mad as because he can.
And an even bigger problem is that he could --- and actually did --- invoke the Kosovo precedent, where the USA did exactly what Russia does now: bombing a sovereign nation which did not attack them nor in any way posed any threat to their security into accepting that its territorial integrity be amputated. He can claim the USA has no higher moral ground, let alone any right, to condemn others for doing what the USA had already done. I hate to say it but he's right.
I'm tempted to think that the Russians are the scourge of the earth and that the evil they did, do and will do far outbalance any good that ever come from them. I'm tempted to never ever read Riussian literature, listen to Russian music or performers orr in any way have anything to do with anything Russian from now on. I know I'm exaggerating but that's how I feel right now.
Quote from: Que on February 23, 2022, 11:03:39 PM
Putin will soon be at your doorstep....
I just hope he's not that out of his fucking minds as to attack a NATO country.
Christ, The Kiev airport is already taken. A friend of mine just called and saw that happen. :o
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 03:09:36 AM
I just hope he's not that out of his fucking minds as to attack a NATO country.
I don't think he will, but all reports indicate that Putin aims to occupy the Black Sea coast including Odessa. Romania will probably have Putin as its new neighbour.
BTW Now Belarus has allowed Russian troops on its territory to attack another sovereign nation, will Belarus now be "reunited" with Russia?
Quote from: Que on February 24, 2022, 03:17:02 AM
I don't think he will, but all reports indicate that Putin aims to occupy the Black Sea coast including Odessa. Romania will probably have Putin as its new neighbour.
Oh, there'll be nothing new actually. We had Russia as a direct neighbour for hundreds of years. The novelty was not having them as neighbours for two decades. ;)
Of course he's not rational.
European leaders who have met with him have stated that for some time.
He's a megalomaniac and a thug. Might have something to do with being short (and elsewhere) and picked on earlier in life.
We are at the mercy of whomever in his military establishment is the LEAST stable.
Keep hoping someone will fall on their sword and kill him for the good of Russia ...
Quote from: Scion7 on February 24, 2022, 03:30:51 AM
Of course he's not rational.
European leaders who have met with him have stated that for some time.
He's a megalomaniac and a thug.
Obviously.
QuoteKeep hoping someone will fall on their sword and kill him for the good of Russia ...
I wouldn't hold my breath.
Anyway, I will join in the sanctions against Russia and buy no more gasoline from Lukoil.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 03:21:38 AM
Oh, there'll be nothing new actually. We had Russia as a direct neighbour for hundreds of years.
During which Romania was a Russian protectorate or satellite state most of the time.
Quote from: Que on February 24, 2022, 03:58:27 AM
During which Romania was a Russian protectorate or satellite state most of the time.
No, not most of the time. To cut a long story short, we were under Russian military occupation several times (seven, IIRC) for periods extending from a few weeks to a few years, we were a satellite state between 1948-1989 (although Ceausescu moved increasingly away from the official USSR line) and we suffered several territorial losses (which, incidentally, all of them ended up belonging to Ukraine). Russia began to increasingly meddle in our affairs starting 1829. Fortunately, the 1848 Revolution in both Wallachia and Moldavia (they took place much more against Russian encroachments than against the at the time very nominal Ottoman suzerainty) and the Crimean War put a stop to that; to this day the Turks and their influence are resented in a much lesser degree than the Russians and theirs*. But most of the time we were either under Ottoman nominal suzerainty or independent. We have never been a part of the Russian Empire, neither de jure nor de facto.
(*think of it: between 1866-1877 we were a Principality under Ottoman suzerainty, yet during all this time we had one of the most liberal Constitutions in Europe, a bicameral Parliament and a two-party very animated political life. None of those could be found in contemporary Russia. ;D )
Nowadays the situation is completely different, though. We are NATO and EU members and have a strong strategic partnership with the US. We have never been in a more secure position and I am not afraid of a Russian invasion. Still, the news of having Russia as a neghbour again is not a good one.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 04:32:49 AM
the news of having Russia as a neghbour again is not a good one.
One of Putin's goals is certainly the Chilia branch of the Danube, which currently belongs to Ukraine (the other two, Sulina and St. George, belong to Romania).
We were planning to spend our holiday this year in St. George, a charming little village located where the St. George branch flows into the Black Sea, literally far from the madding crowd. The way things go right now, we'll probably see Russian vessels at point-blank.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 03:50:30 AM
Obviously.
But isn't he rational in the sense that his reasons are understandable? I think he's a thug too. And Russia is a drag. But he's not crazy, right? I assume he has institutional support for his shenanigans. What are the chances that he loses support with insiders? There are some in the U.S. calling this Munich and that just sounds silly.
Quote from: milk on February 24, 2022, 05:09:16 AM
But isn't he rational in the sense that his reasons are understandable? I think he's a thug too. And Russia is a drag. But he's not crazy, right?
I think he is clinically insane.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 05:10:30 AM
I think he is clinically insane.
Most dictators are sociopaths or psychopaths.
Quote from: Que on February 24, 2022, 05:17:13 AM
Most dictators are sociopaths or psychopaths.
True. Not that democratically elected leaders are immune to that, though. ;)
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 05:10:30 AM
I think he is clinically insane.
Interesting. I wonder if it's possible that this is a gambit he could lose then. He could get very bogged down and have economic sanctions eat away at him. That might lead to him finally getting removed? Sounds like a kind of too-good-to-hope-for scenario.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 05:20:51 AM
True. Not that democratically elected leaders are immune to that, though. ;)
Did you see the movie the Fog of War? Mcnamara considered Khrushchev and Castro to be rational actors and that understanding them and their motives was useful. If there are historical precedents and institutional supports behind Putin's actions then, however wrong they are or however much they may need to be opposed, they can be understood rationally. That's all I'm looking for. I'm wondering how much disagreement there can be behind the scenes in Russia over this. A lot of people seem to be saying that this is an understandable move, if not justifiable. On the other hand, Putin is a madman who can't be understood rationally. Or Putin is too crazy to see the jeopardy into which he's placed his country. Or Putin is crazy like a fox and has calculated this rationally with a bit of a gamble as to the benefits. I don't know so I'm asking.
Quote from: milk on February 24, 2022, 05:41:59 AM
Interesting. I wonder if it's possible that this is a gambit he could lose then. He could get very bogged down and have economic sanctions eat away at him. That might lead to him finally getting removed? Sounds like a kind of too-good-to-hope-for scenario.
I doubt the sanctions will hit so hard the Russian economy as to empoverish the oligarchs to such a degree that they'd stage a coup d'etat. It's not a completely impossible scenario, though.
I think the best course of action for the West is to open negotiations with the more rational and sane part of the political-military Russian apparatus (I think there is such thing, I don't know how large it is) on the basis of "First get rid of Putin, then we'll negociate about whatever you want.". If such an approach would have been taken with Germany during WWII, the history might have been different. It's Sci-Fi, I know, but one can always dream.
Quote from: milk on February 24, 2022, 05:50:31 AM
Did you see the movie the Fog of War? Mcnamara considered Khrushchev and Castro to be rational actors and that understanding them and their motives was useful. If there are historical precedents and institutional supports behind Putin's actions then, however wrong they are or however much they may need to be opposed, they can be understood rationally. That's all I'm looking for. I'm wondering how much disagreement there can be behind the scenes in Russia over this. A lot of people seem to be saying that this is an understandable move, if not justifiable. On the other hand, Putin is a madman who can't be understood rationally. Or Putin is too crazy to see the jeopardy into which he's placed his country. Or Putin is crazy like a fox and has calculated this rationally with a bit of a gamble as to the benefits. I don't know so I'm asking.
After the nature of his madness has been established, the actions of a madman can be understood rationally . This doesn't make the madman rational per se.
This is a very long reading, but it's worth the time. On July 12, 2021 Putin explicitly and publicly stated his goals and reasons.
Article by Vladimir Putin "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181)
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 03:08:17 AM
I thought Putin was a scoundrel but not a crazy one. I was wrong, he's insane.
The big problem is he does what he does not so much because he's mad as because he can.
And an even bigger problem is that he could --- and actually did --- invoke the Kosovo precedent, where the USA did exactly what Russia does now: bombing a sovereign nation which did not attack them nor in any way posed any threat to their security into accepting that its territorial integrity be amputated. He can claim the USA has no higher moral ground, let alone any right, to condemn others for doing what the USA had already done. I hate to say it but he's right.
I'm tempted to think that the Russians are the scourge of the earth and that the evil they did, do and will do far outbalance any good that ever come from them. I'm tempted to never ever read Riussian literature, listen to Russian music or performers orr in any way have anything to do with anything Russian from now on. I know I'm exaggerating but that's how I feel right now.
The feeling is, of course, thoroughly understandable.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 24, 2022, 03:30:51 AM
He's a megalomaniac and a thug. Might have something to do with being short (and elsewhere) and picked on earlier in life.
No wonder the disgraced former president is so enamored of him.
Quote from: milk on February 24, 2022, 05:41:59 AM
Interesting. I wonder if it's possible that this is a gambit he could lose then. He could get very bogged down and have economic sanctions eat away at him. That might lead to him finally getting removed? Sounds like a kind of too-good-to-hope-for scenario.
He seems to want to recreate the Soviet Union and he may recreate the collapse of the Soviet Union. In broad outlines, everyone knew that Marxism was fantasy, the dictatorship of the proletariate, etc, was nonsense. But when everyone had a job, a half decent place to live, could get enough food to eat, they were willing to go along with it, even if you had to be sure never to say anything political, lest you end up in the gulag. Entering the 1980's, there were housing shortages (no one was homeless, you just got crowded to a smaller and smaller, shabbier and shabbier communal apartment) there were food shortages, you had to show your passport to get an egg. People were no longer willing to defend the Soviet union and when the Soviet hard liners tried to oust Gorbachev, it went the other way. Sanctioning Putin's cronies may not be the way to go. If the economy goes south for ordinary Russians Putin may find his grassroots support failing him.
Of course, a factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union was the disastrous invasion of Afghanistan. It is not clear that the Ukraine resistance will wreak damage to Russia comparable to what Afghanistan's did.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 06:07:20 AM
This is a very long reading, but it's worth the time. On July 12, 2021 Putin explicitly and publicly stated his goals and reasons.
Article by Vladimir Putin "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181)
Putin's "logic" is that each and every square inch of territory which at some point in time, no matter how far removed from today, belonged to Russia must return to Russia. By this token, Europe should be in a state of perpetual war because there is no country on this continent which at some point in time did not held territories which today belong to another country or, conversely, today held territories which at some point in time belonged to another country.
Be it as it might, I suggest, though, that the thread's name be changed to "War in Europe". For all the madness of the situation, Europe is not at war.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 05:20:51 AM
True. Not that democratically elected leaders are immune to that, though. ;)
E.g. Putin's useful-idiot-in-chief.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 06:07:20 AM
This is a very long reading, but it's worth the time. On July 12, 2021 Putin explicitly and publicly stated his goals and reasons.
Article by Vladimir Putin "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181)
I can't open this here on the west coast. Curious.
So Putin went all in. Perhaps he is rational, perhaps not. After achieving military aims, it remains to be seen if Russia rules Ukraine outright, or if it will it set up a regime - presumably using some form of "democracy".
It might be time to revisit a warning from a quarter century ago:
Quote from: George F. Kennan
A Fateful Error
Feb. 5, 1997
In late 1996, the impression was allowed, or caused, to become prevalent that it had been somehow and somewhere decided to expand NATO up to Russia's borders. This despite the fact that no formal decision can be made before the alliance's next summit meeting, in June.
The timing of this revelation -- coinciding with the Presidential election and the pursuant changes in responsible personalities in Washington -- did not make it easy for the outsider to know how or where to insert a modest word of comment. Nor did the assurance given to the public that the decision, however preliminary, was irrevocable encourage outside opinion.
But something of the highest importance is at stake here. And perhaps it is not too late to advance a view that, I believe, is not only mine alone but is shared by a number of others with extensive and in most instances more recent experience in Russian matters. The view, bluntly stated, is that expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.
Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking. And, last but not least, it might make it much more difficult, if not impossible, to secure the Russian Duma's ratification of the Start II agreement and to achieve further reductions of nuclear weaponry.
It is, of course, unfortunate that Russia should be confronted with such a challenge at a time when its executive power is in a state of high uncertainty and near-paralysis. And it is doubly unfortunate considering the total lack of any necessity for this move. Why, with all the hopeful possibilities engendered by the end of the cold war, should East-West relations become centered on the question of who would be allied with whom and, by implication, against whom in some fanciful, totally unforeseeable and most improbable future military conflict?
I am aware, of course, that NATO is conducting talks with the Russian authorities in hopes of making the idea of expansion tolerable and palatable to Russia. One can, in the existing circumstances, only wish these efforts success. But anyone who gives serious attention to the Russian press cannot fail to note that neither the public nor the Government is waiting for the proposed expansion to occur before reacting to it.
Russians are little impressed with American assurances that it reflects no hostile intentions. They would see their prestige (always uppermost in the Russian mind) and their security interests as adversely affected. They would, of course, have no choice but to accept expansion as a military fait accompli. But they would continue to regard it as a rebuff by the West and would likely look elsewhere for guarantees of a secure and hopeful future for themselves.
It will obviously not be easy to change a decision already made or tacitly accepted by the alliance's 16 member countries. But there are a few intervening months before the decision is to be made final; perhaps this period can be used to alter the proposed expansion in ways that would mitigate the unhappy effects it is already having on Russian opinion and policy.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 24, 2022, 06:35:35 AM
The feeling is, of course, thoroughly understandable.
Of course I won't go that far but for the time being I'm really done with Russian music. Sorry Tchaikovsky, Rachmaninoff, Medtner but, heck, Tsarist Russia was only slightly, if at all, better than Putin.
I vividly remember what my late maternal uncle, God rest him in peace, once told me while we were watching a TV documentary on Chekhov:
Well, he might have been a democrat, he might have been a good guy, I don't give a fig about that; he was Russian and that's enough for me, I have no interest in him whatever, I don't want to even hear his name.
Russian stocks plunge and rouble hits record low after Ukraine invasion
Quote from: Todd on February 24, 2022, 06:48:18 AM
I can't open this here on the west coast. Curious.
Here it is in its entirety.
During the recent Direct Line, when I was asked about Russian-Ukrainian relations, I said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people – a single whole. These words were not driven by some short-term considerations or prompted by the current political context. It is what I have said on numerous occasions and what I firmly believe. I therefore feel it necessary to explain my position in detail and share my assessments of today's situation.
First of all, I would like to emphasize that the wall that has emerged in recent years between Russia and Ukraine, between the parts of what is essentially the same historical and spiritual space, to my mind is our great common misfortune and tragedy. These are, first and foremost, the consequences of our own mistakes made at different periods of time. But these are also the result of deliberate efforts by those forces that have always sought to undermine our unity. The formula they apply has been known from time immemorial – divide and rule. There is nothing new here. Hence the attempts to play on the "national question" and sow discord among people, the overarching goal being to divide and then to pit the parts of a single people against one another.
To have a better understanding of the present and look into the future, we need to turn to history. Certainly, it is impossible to cover in this article all the developments that have taken place over more than a thousand years. But I will focus on the key, pivotal moments that are important for us to remember, both in Russia and Ukraine.
Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are all descendants of Ancient Rus, which was the largest state in Europe. Slavic and other tribes across the vast territory – from Ladoga, Novgorod, and Pskov to Kiev and Chernigov – were bound together by one language (which we now refer to as Old Russian), economic ties, the rule of the princes of the Rurik dynasty, and – after the baptism of Rus – the Orthodox faith. The spiritual choice made by St. Vladimir, who was both Prince of Novgorod and Grand Prince of Kiev, still largely determines our affinity today.
The throne of Kiev held a dominant position in Ancient Rus. This had been the custom since the late 9th century. The Tale of Bygone Years captured for posterity the words of Oleg the Prophet about Kiev, "Let it be the mother of all Russian cities."
Later, like other European states of that time, Ancient Rus faced a decline of central rule and fragmentation. At the same time, both the nobility and the common people perceived Rus as a common territory, as their homeland.
The fragmentation intensified after Batu Khan's devastating invasion, which ravaged many cities, including Kiev. The northeastern part of Rus fell under the control of the Golden Horde but retained limited sovereignty. The southern and western Russian lands largely became part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which – most significantly – was referred to in historical records as the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Russia.
Members of the princely and "boyar" clans would change service from one prince to another, feuding with each other but also making friendships and alliances. Voivode Bobrok of Volyn and the sons of Grand Duke of Lithuania Algirdas – Andrey of Polotsk and Dmitry of Bryansk – fought next to Grand Duke Dmitry Ivanovich of Moscow on the Kulikovo field. At the same time, Grand Duke of Lithuania Jogaila – son of the Princess of Tver – led his troops to join with Mamai. These are all pages of our shared history, reflecting its complex and multi-dimensional nature.
Most importantly, people both in the western and eastern Russian lands spoke the same language. Their faith was Orthodox. Up to the middle of the 15th century, the unified church government remained in place.
At a new stage of historical development, both Lithuanian Rus and Moscow Rus could have become the points of attraction and consolidation of the territories of Ancient Rus. It so happened that Moscow became the center of reunification, continuing the tradition of ancient Russian statehood. Moscow princes – the descendants of Prince Alexander Nevsky – cast off the foreign yoke and began gathering the Russian lands.
In the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, other processes were unfolding. In the 14th century, Lithuania's ruling elite converted to Catholicism. In the 16th century, it signed the Union of Lublin with the Kingdom of Poland to form the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. The Polish Catholic nobility received considerable land holdings and privileges in the territory of Rus. In accordance with the 1596 Union of Brest, part of the western Russian Orthodox clergy submitted to the authority of the Pope. The process of Polonization and Latinization began, ousting Orthodoxy.
As a consequence, in the 16–17th centuries, the liberation movement of the Orthodox population was gaining strength in the Dnieper region. The events during the times of Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytsky became a turning point. His supporters struggled for autonomy from the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth.
In its 1649 appeal to the king of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Zaporizhian Host demanded that the rights of the Russian Orthodox population be respected, that the voivode of Kiev be Russian and of Greek faith, and that the persecution of the churches of God be stopped. But the Cossacks were not heard.
Bohdan Khmelnytsky then made appeals to Moscow, which were considered by the Zemsky Sobor. On 1 October 1653, members of the supreme representative body of the Russian state decided to support their brothers in faith and take them under patronage. In January 1654, the Pereyaslav Council confirmed that decision. Subsequently, the ambassadors of Bohdan Khmelnytsky and Moscow visited dozens of cities, including Kiev, whose populations swore allegiance to the Russian tsar. Incidentally, nothing of the kind happened at the conclusion of the Union of Lublin.
In a letter to Moscow in 1654, Bohdan Khmelnytsky thanked Tsar Aleksey Mikhaylovich for taking "the whole Zaporizhian Host and the whole Russian Orthodox world under the strong and high hand of the Tsar". It means that, in their appeals to both the Polish king and the Russian tsar, the Cossacks referred to and defined themselves as Russian Orthodox people.
Over the course of the protracted war between the Russian state and the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, some of the hetmans, successors of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, would "detach themselves" from Moscow or seek support from Sweden, Poland, or Turkey. But, again, for the people, that was a war of liberation. It ended with the Truce of Andrusovo in 1667. The final outcome was sealed by the Treaty of Perpetual Peace in 1686. The Russian state incorporated the city of Kiev and the lands on the left bank of the Dnieper River, including Poltava region, Chernigov region, and Zaporozhye. Their inhabitants were reunited with the main part of the Russian Orthodox people. These territories were referred to as "Malorossia" (Little Russia).
The name "Ukraine" was used more often in the meaning of the Old Russian word "okraina" (periphery), which is found in written sources from the 12th century, referring to various border territories. And the word "Ukrainian", judging by archival documents, originally referred to frontier guards who protected the external borders.
On the right bank, which remained under the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, the old orders were restored, and social and religious oppression intensified. On the contrary, the lands on the left bank, taken under the protection of the unified state, saw rapid development. People from the other bank of the Dnieper moved here en masse. They sought support from people who spoke the same language and had the same faith.
During the Great Northern War with Sweden, the people in Malorossia were not faced with a choice of whom to side with. Only a small portion of the Cossacks supported Mazepa's rebellion. People of all orders and degrees considered themselves Russian and Orthodox.
Cossack senior officers belonging to the nobility would reach the heights of political, diplomatic, and military careers in Russia. Graduates of Kiev-Mohyla Academy played a leading role in church life. This was also the case during the Hetmanate – an essentially autonomous state formation with a special internal structure – and later in the Russian Empire. Malorussians in many ways helped build a big common country – its statehood, culture, and science. They participated in the exploration and development of the Urals, Siberia, the Caucasus, and the Far East. Incidentally, during the Soviet period, natives of Ukraine held major, including the highest, posts in the leadership of the unified state. Suffice it to say that Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev, whose party biography was most closely associated with Ukraine, led the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) for almost 30 years.
In the second half of the 18th century, following the wars with the Ottoman Empire, Russia incorporated Crimea and the lands of the Black Sea region, which became known as Novorossiya. They were populated by people from all of the Russian provinces. After the partitions of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Russian Empire regained the western Old Russian lands, with the exception of Galicia and Transcarpathia, which became part of the Austrian – and later Austro-Hungarian – Empire.
The incorporation of the western Russian lands into the single state was not merely the result of political and diplomatic decisions. It was underlain by the common faith, shared cultural traditions, and – I would like to emphasize it once again – language similarity. Thus, as early as the beginning of the 17th century, one of the hierarchs of the Uniate Church, Joseph Rutsky, communicated to Rome that people in Moscovia called Russians from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth their brothers, that their written language was absolutely identical, and differences in the vernacular were insignificant. He drew an analogy with the residents of Rome and Bergamo. These are, as we know, the center and the north of modern Italy.
Many centuries of fragmentation and living within different states naturally brought about regional language peculiarities, resulting in the emergence of dialects. The vernacular enriched the literary language. Ivan Kotlyarevsky, Grigory Skovoroda, and Taras Shevchenko played a huge role here. Their works are our common literary and cultural heritage. Taras Shevchenko wrote poetry in the Ukrainian language, and prose mainly in Russian. The books of Nikolay Gogol, a Russian patriot and native of Poltavshchyna, are written in Russian, bristling with Malorussian folk sayings and motifs. How can this heritage be divided between Russia and Ukraine? And why do it?
The south-western lands of the Russian Empire, Malorussia and Novorossiya, and the Crimea developed as ethnically and religiously diverse entities. Crimean Tatars, Armenians, Greeks, Jews, Karaites, Krymchaks, Bulgarians, Poles, Serbs, Germans, and other peoples lived here. They all preserved their faith, traditions, and customs.
I am not going to idealise anything. We do know there were the Valuev Circular of 1863 an then the Ems Ukaz of 1876, which restricted the publication and importation of religious and socio-political literature in the Ukrainian language. But it is important to be mindful of the historical context. These decisions were taken against the backdrop of dramatic events in Poland and the desire of the leaders of the Polish national movement to exploit the "Ukrainian issue" to their own advantage. I should add that works of fiction, books of Ukrainian poetry and folk songs continued to be published. There is objective evidence that the Russian Empire was witnessing an active process of development of the Malorussian cultural identity within the greater Russian nation, which united the Velikorussians, the Malorussians and the Belorussians.
At the same time, the idea of Ukrainian people as a nation separate from the Russians started to form and gain ground among the Polish elite and a part of the Malorussian intelligentsia. Since there was no historical basis – and could not have been any, conclusions were substantiated by all sorts of concoctions, which went as far as to claim that the Ukrainians are the true Slavs and the Russians, the Muscovites, are not. Such "hypotheses" became increasingly used for political purposes as a tool of rivalry between European states.
Since the late 19th century, the Austro-Hungarian authorities had latched onto this narrative, using it as a counterbalance to the Polish national movement and pro-Muscovite sentiments in Galicia. During World War I, Vienna played a role in the formation of the so-called Legion of Ukrainian Sich Riflemen. Galicians suspected of sympathies with Orthodox Christianity and Russia were subjected to brutal repression and thrown into the concentration camps of Thalerhof and Terezin.
Further developments had to do with the collapse of European empires, the fierce civil war that broke out across the vast territory of the former Russian Empire, and foreign intervention.
After the February Revolution, in March 1917, the Central Rada was established in Kiev, intended to become the organ of supreme power. In November 1917, in its Third Universal, it declared the creation of the Ukrainian People's Republic (UPR) as part of Russia.
In December 1917, UPR representatives arrived in Brest-Litovsk, where Soviet Russia was negotiating with Germany and its allies. At a meeting on 10 January 1918, the head of the Ukrainian delegation read out a note proclaiming the independence of Ukraine. Subsequently, the Central Rada proclaimed Ukraine independent in its Fourth Universal.
The declared sovereignty did not last long. Just a few weeks later, Rada delegates signed a separate treaty with the German bloc countries. Germany and Austria-Hungary were at the time in a dire situation and needed Ukrainian bread and raw materials. In order to secure large-scale supplies, they obtained consent for sending their troops and technical staff to the UPR. In fact, this was used as a pretext for occupation.
For those who have today given up the full control of Ukraine to external forces, it would be instructive to remember that, back in 1918, such a decision proved fatal for the ruling regime in Kiev. With the direct involvement of the occupying forces, the Central Rada was overthrown and Hetman Pavlo Skoropadskyi was brought to power, proclaiming instead of the UPR the Ukrainian State, which was essentially under German protectorate.
In November 1918 – following the revolutionary events in Germany and Austria-Hungary – Pavlo Skoropadskyi, who had lost the support of German bayonets, took a different course, declaring that "Ukraine is to take the lead in the formation of an All-Russian Federation". However, the regime was soon changed again. It was now the time of the so-called Directorate.
In autumn 1918, Ukrainian nationalists proclaimed the West Ukrainian People's Republic (WUPR) and, in January 1919, announced its unification with the Ukrainian People's Republic. In July 1919, Ukrainian forces were crushed by Polish troops, and the territory of the former WUPR came under the Polish rule.
In April 1920, Symon Petliura (portrayed as one of the "heroes" in today's Ukraine) concluded secret conventions on behalf of the UPR Directorate, giving up – in exchange for military support – Galicia and Western Volhynia lands to Poland. In May 1920, Petliurites entered Kiev in a convoy of Polish military units. But not for long. As early as November 1920, following a truce between Poland and Soviet Russia, the remnants of Petliura's forces surrendered to those same Poles.
The example of the UPR shows that different kinds of quasi-state formations that emerged across the former Russian Empire at the time of the Civil War and turbulence were inherently unstable. Nationalists sought to create their own independent states, while leaders of the White movement advocated indivisible Russia. Many of the republics established by the Bolsheviks' supporters did not see themselves outside Russia either. Nevertheless, Bolshevik Party leaders sometimes basically drove them out of Soviet Russia for various reasons.
Thus, in early 1918, the Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Soviet Republic was proclaimed and asked Moscow to incorporate it into Soviet Russia. This was met with a refusal. During a meeting with the republic's leaders, Vladimir Lenin insisted that they act as part of Soviet Ukraine. On 15 March 1918, the Central Committee of the Russian Communist Party (Bolsheviks) directly ordered that delegates be sent to the Ukrainian Congress of Soviets, including from the Donetsk Basin, and that "one government for all of Ukraine" be created at the congress. The territories of the Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Soviet Republic later formed most of the regions of south-eastern Ukraine.
Under the 1921 Treaty of Riga, concluded between the Russian SFSR, the Ukrainian SSR and Poland, the western lands of the former Russian Empire were ceded to Poland. In the interwar period, the Polish government pursued an active resettlement policy, seeking to change the ethnic composition of the Eastern Borderlands – the Polish name for what is now Western Ukraine, Western Belarus and parts of Lithuania. The areas were subjected to harsh Polonisation, local culture and traditions suppressed. Later, during World War II, radical groups of Ukrainian nationalists used this as a pretext for terror not only against Polish, but also against Jewish and Russian populations.
In 1922, when the USSR was created, with the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic becoming one of its founders, a rather fierce debate among the Bolshevik leaders resulted in the implementation of Lenin's plan to form a union state as a federation of equal republics. The right for the republics to freely secede from the Union was included in the text of the Declaration on the Creation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and, subsequently, in the 1924 USSR Constitution. By doing so, the authors planted in the foundation of our statehood the most dangerous time bomb, which exploded the moment the safety mechanism provided by the leading role of the CPSU was gone, the party itself collapsing from within. A "parade of sovereignties" followed. On 8 December 1991, the so-called Belovezh Agreement on the Creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States was signed, stating that "the USSR as a subject of international law and a geopolitical reality no longer existed." By the way, Ukraine never signed or ratified the CIS Charter adopted back in 1993.
In the 1920's-1930's, the Bolsheviks actively promoted the "localization policy", which took the form of Ukrainization in the Ukrainian SSR. Symbolically, as part of this policy and with consent of the Soviet authorities, Mikhail Grushevskiy, former chairman of Central Rada, one of the ideologists of Ukrainian nationalism, who at a certain period of time had been supported by Austria-Hungary, was returned to the USSR and was elected member of the Academy of Sciences.
The localization policy undoubtedly played a major role in the development and consolidation of the Ukrainian culture, language and identity. At the same time, under the guise of combating the so-called Russian great-power chauvinism, Ukrainization was often imposed on those who did not see themselves as Ukrainians. This Soviet national policy secured at the state level the provision on three separate Slavic peoples: Russian, Ukrainian and Belorussian, instead of the large Russian nation, a triune people comprising Velikorussians, Malorussians and Belorussians.
In 1939, the USSR regained the lands earlier seized by Poland. A major portion of these became part of the Soviet Ukraine. In 1940, the Ukrainian SSR incorporated part of Bessarabia, which had been occupied by Romania since 1918, as well as Northern Bukovina. In 1948, Zmeyiniy Island (Snake Island) in the Black Sea became part of Ukraine. In 1954, the Crimean Region of the RSFSR was given to the Ukrainian SSR, in gross violation of legal norms that were in force at the time.
I would like to dwell on the destiny of Carpathian Ruthenia, which became part of Czechoslovakia following the breakup of Austria-Hungary. Rusins made up a considerable share of local population. While this is hardly mentioned any longer, after the liberation of Transcarpathia by Soviet troops the congress of the Orthodox population of the region voted for the inclusion of Carpathian Ruthenia in the RSFSR or, as a separate Carpathian republic, in the USSR proper. Yet the choice of people was ignored. In summer 1945, the historical act of the reunification of Carpathian Ukraine "with its ancient motherland, Ukraine" – as The Pravda newspaper put it – was announced.
Therefore, modern Ukraine is entirely the product of the Soviet era. We know and remember well that it was shaped – for a significant part – on the lands of historical Russia. To make sure of that, it is enough to look at the boundaries of the lands reunited with the Russian state in the 17th century and the territory of the Ukrainian SSR when it left the Soviet Union.
The Bolsheviks treated the Russian people as inexhaustible material for their social experiments. They dreamt of a world revolution that would wipe out national states. That is why they were so generous in drawing borders and bestowing territorial gifts. It is no longer important what exactly the idea of the Bolshevik leaders who were chopping the country into pieces was. We can disagree about minor details, background and logics behind certain decisions. One fact is crystal clear: Russia was robbed, indeed.
When working on this article, I relied on open-source documents that contain well-known facts rather than on some secret records. The leaders of modern Ukraine and their external "patrons" prefer to overlook these facts. They do not miss a chance, however, both inside the country and abroad, to condemn "the crimes of the Soviet regime," listing among them events with which neither the CPSU, nor the USSR, let alone modern Russia, have anything to do. At the same time, the Bolsheviks' efforts to detach from Russia its historical territories are not considered a crime. And we know why: if they brought about the weakening of Russia, our ill-wishes are happy with that.
Of course, inside the USSR, borders between republics were never seen as state borders; they were nominal within a single country, which, while featuring all the attributes of a federation, was highly centralized – this, again, was secured by the CPSU's leading role. But in 1991, all those territories, and, which is more important, people, found themselves abroad overnight, taken away, this time indeed, from their historical motherland.
What can be said to this? Things change: countries and communities are no exception. Of course, some part of a people in the process of its development, influenced by a number of reasons and historical circumstances, can become aware of itself as a separate nation at a certain moment. How should we treat that? There is only one answer: with respect!
You want to establish a state of your own: you are welcome! But what are the terms? I will recall the assessment given by one of the most prominent political figures of new Russia, first mayor of Saint Petersburg Anatoly Sobchak. As a legal expert who believed that every decision must be legitimate, in 1992, he shared the following opinion: the republics that were founders of the Union, having denounced the 1922 Union Treaty, must return to the boundaries they had had before joining the Soviet Union. All other territorial acquisitions are subject to discussion, negotiations, given that the ground has been revoked.
In other words, when you leave, take what you brought with you. This logic is hard to refute. I will just say that the Bolsheviks had embarked on reshaping boundaries even before the Soviet Union, manipulating with territories to their liking, in disregard of people's views.
The Russian Federation recognized the new geopolitical realities: and not only recognized, but, indeed, did a lot for Ukraine to establish itself as an independent country. Throughout the difficult 1990's and in the new millennium, we have provided considerable support to Ukraine. Whatever "political arithmetic" of its own Kiev may wish to apply, in 1991–2013, Ukraine's budget savings amounted to more than USD 82 billion, while today, it holds on to the mere USD 1.5 billion of Russian payments for gas transit to Europe. If economic ties between our countries had been retained, Ukraine would enjoy the benefit of tens of billions of dollars.
Ukraine and Russia have developed as a single economic system over decades and centuries. The profound cooperation we had 30 years ago is an example for the European Union to look up to. We are natural complementary economic partners. Such a close relationship can strengthen competitive advantages, increasing the potential of both countries.
Ukraine used to possess great potential, which included powerful infrastructure, gas transportation system, advanced shipbuilding, aviation, rocket and instrument engineering industries, as well as world-class scientific, design and engineering schools. Taking over this legacy and declaring independence, Ukrainian leaders promised that the Ukrainian economy would be one of the leading ones and the standard of living would be among the best in Europe.
Today, high-tech industrial giants that were once the pride of Ukraine and the entire Union, are sinking. Engineering output has dropped by 42 per cent over ten years. The scale of deindustrialization and overall economic degradation is visible in Ukraine's electricity production, which has seen a nearly two-time decrease in 30 years. Finally, according to IMF reports, in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic broke out, Ukraine's GDP per capita had been below USD 4 thousand. This is less than in the Republic of Albania, the Republic of Moldova, or unrecognized Kosovo. Nowadays, Ukraine is Europe's poorest country.
Who is to blame for this? Is it the people of Ukraine's fault? Certainly not. It was the Ukrainian authorities who waisted and frittered away the achievements of many generations. We know how hardworking and talented the people of Ukraine are. They can achieve success and outstanding results with perseverance and determination. And these qualities, as well as their openness, innate optimism and hospitality have not gone. The feelings of millions of people who treat Russia not just well but with great affection, just as we feel about Ukraine, remain the same.
Until 2014, hundreds of agreements and joint projects were aimed at developing our economies, business and cultural ties, strengthening security, and solving common social and environmental problems. They brought tangible benefits to people – both in Russia and Ukraine. This is what we believed to be most important. And that is why we had a fruitful interaction with all, I emphasize, with all the leaders of Ukraine.
Even after the events in Kiev of 2014, I charged the Russian government to elaborate options for preserving and maintaining our economic ties within relevant ministries and agencies. However, there was and is still no mutual will to do the same. Nevertheless, Russia is still one of Ukraine's top three trading partners, and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are coming to us to work, and they find a welcome reception and support. So that what the "aggressor state" is.
When the USSR collapsed, many people in Russia and Ukraine sincerely believed and assumed that our close cultural, spiritual and economic ties would certainly last, as would the commonality of our people, who had always had a sense of unity at their core. However, events – at first gradually, and then more rapidly – started to move in a different direction.
In essence, Ukraine's ruling circles decided to justify their country's independence through the denial of its past, however, except for border issues. They began to mythologize and rewrite history, edit out everything that united us, and refer to the period when Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as an occupation. The common tragedy of collectivization and famine of the early 1930s was portrayed as the genocide of the Ukrainian people.
Radicals and neo-Nazis were open and more and more insolent about their ambitions. They were indulged by both the official authorities and local oligarchs, who robbed the people of Ukraine and kept their stolen money in Western banks, ready to sell their motherland for the sake of preserving their capital. To this should be added the persistent weakness of state institutions and the position of a willing hostage to someone else's geopolitical will.
I recall that long ago, well before 2014, the U.S. and EU countries systematically and consistently pushed Ukraine to curtail and limit economic cooperation with Russia. We, as the largest trade and economic partner of Ukraine, suggested discussing the emerging problems in the Ukraine-Russia-EU format. But every time we were told that Russia had nothing to do with it and that the issue concerned only the EU and Ukraine. De facto Western countries rejected Russia's repeated calls for dialogue.
Step by step, Ukraine was dragged into a dangerous geopolitical game aimed at turning Ukraine into a barrier between Europe and Russia, a springboard against Russia. Inevitably, there came a time when the concept of "Ukraine is not Russia" was no longer an option. There was a need for the "anti-Russia" concept which we will never accept.
The owners of this project took as a basis the old groundwork of the Polish-Austrian ideologists to create an "anti-Moscow Russia". And there is no need to deceive anyone that this is being done in the interests of the people of Ukraine. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth never needed Ukrainian culture, much less Cossack autonomy. In Austria-Hungary, historical Russian lands were mercilessly exploited and remained the poorest. The Nazis, abetted by collaborators from the OUN-UPA, did not need Ukraine, but a living space and slaves for Aryan overlords.
Nor were the interests of the Ukrainian people thought of in February 2014. The legitimate public discontent, caused by acute socio-economic problems, mistakes, and inconsistent actions of the authorities of the time, was simply cynically exploited. Western countries directly interfered in Ukraine's internal affairs and supported the coup. Radical nationalist groups served as its battering ram. Their slogans, ideology, and blatant aggressive Russophobia have to a large extent become defining elements of state policy in Ukraine.
All the things that united us and bring us together so far came under attack. First and foremost, the Russian language. Let me remind you that the new "Maidan" authorities first tried to repeal the law on state language policy. Then there was the law on the "purification of power", the law on education that virtually cut the Russian language out of the educational process.
Lastly, as early as May of this year, the current president introduced a bill on "indigenous peoples" to the Rada. Only those who constitute an ethnic minority and do not have their own state entity outside Ukraine are recognized as indigenous. The law has been passed. New seeds of discord have been sown. And this is happening in a country, as I have already noted, that is very complex in terms of its territorial, national and linguistic composition, and its history of formation.
There may be an argument: if you are talking about a single large nation, a triune nation, then what difference does it make who people consider themselves to be – Russians, Ukrainians, or Belarusians. I completely agree with this. Especially since the determination of nationality, particularly in mixed families, is the right of every individual, free to make his or her own choice.
But the fact is that the situation in Ukraine today is completely different because it involves a forced change of identity. And the most despicable thing is that the Russians in Ukraine are being forced not only to deny their roots, generations of their ancestors but also to believe that Russia is their enemy. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the path of forced assimilation, the formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state, aggressive towards Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass destruction against us. As a result of such a harsh and artificial division of Russians and Ukrainians, the Russian people in all may decrease by hundreds of thousands or even millions.
Our spiritual unity has also been attacked. As in the days of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, a new ecclesiastical has been initiated. The secular authorities, making no secret of their political aims, have blatantly interfered in church life and brought things to a split, to the seizure of churches, the beating of priests and monks. Even extensive autonomy of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church while maintaining spiritual unity with the Moscow Patriarchate strongly displeases them. They have to destroy this prominent and centuries-old symbol of our kinship at all costs.
I think it is also natural that the representatives of Ukraine over and over again vote against the UN General Assembly resolution condemning the glorification of Nazism. Marches and torchlit processions in honor of remaining war criminals from the SS units take place under the protection of the official authorities. Mazepa, who betrayed everyone, Petliura, who paid for Polish patronage with Ukrainian lands, and Bandera, who collaborated with the Nazis, are ranked as national heroes. Everything is being done to erase from the memory of young generations the names of genuine patriots and victors, who have always been the pride of Ukraine.
For the Ukrainians who fought in the Red Army, in partisan units, the Great Patriotic War was indeed a patriotic war because they were defending their home, their great common Motherland. Over two thousand soldiers became Heroes of the Soviet Union. Among them are legendary pilot Ivan Kozhedub, fearless sniper, defender of Odessa and Sevastopol Lyudmila Pavlichenko, valiant guerrilla commander Sidor Kovpak. This indomitable generation fought, those people gave their lives for our future, for us. To forget their feat is to betray our grandfathers, mothers and fathers.
The anti-Russia project has been rejected by millions of Ukrainians. The people of Crimea and residents of Sevastopol made their historic choice. And people in the southeast peacefully tried to defend their stance. Yet, all of them, including children, were labeled as separatists and terrorists. They were threatened with ethnic cleansing and the use of military force. And the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk took up arms to defend their home, their language and their lives. Were they left any other choice after the riots that swept through the cities of Ukraine, after the horror and tragedy of 2 May 2014 in Odessa where Ukrainian neo-Nazis burned people alive making a new Khatyn out of it? The same massacre was ready to be carried out by the followers of Bandera in Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk. Even now they do not abandon such plans. They are biding their time. But their time will not come.
The coup d'état and the subsequent actions of the Kiev authorities inevitably provoked confrontation and civil war. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights estimates that the total number of victims in the conflict in Donbas has exceeded 13,000. Among them are the elderly and children. These are terrible, irreparable losses.
Russia has done everything to stop fratricide. The Minsk agreements aimed at a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Donbas have been concluded. I am convinced that they still have no alternative. In any case, no one has withdrawn their signatures from the Minsk Package of Measures or from the relevant statements by the leaders of the Normandy format countries. No one has initiated a review of the United Nations Security Council resolution of 17 February 2015.
During official negotiations, especially after being reined in by Western partners, Ukraine's representatives regularly declare their "full adherence" to the Minsk agreements, but are in fact guided by a position of "unacceptability". They do not intend to seriously discuss either the special status of Donbas or safeguards for the people living there. They prefer to exploit the image of the "victim of external aggression" and peddle Russophobia. They arrange bloody provocations in Donbas. In short, they attract the attention of external patrons and masters by all means.
Apparently, and I am becoming more and more convinced of this: Kiev simply does not need Donbas. Why? Because, firstly, the inhabitants of these regions will never accept the order that they have tried and are trying to impose by force, blockade and threats. And secondly, the outcome of both Minsk‑1 and Minsk‑2 which give a real chance to peacefully restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine by coming to an agreement directly with the DPR and LPR with Russia, Germany and France as mediators, contradicts the entire logic of the anti-Russia project. And it can only be sustained by the constant cultivation of the image of an internal and external enemy. And I would add – under the protection and control of the Western powers.
This is what is actually happening. First of all, we are facing the creation of a climate of fear in Ukrainian society, aggressive rhetoric, indulging neo-Nazis and militarising the country. Along with that we are witnessing not just complete dependence but direct external control, including the supervision of the Ukrainian authorities, security services and armed forces by foreign advisers, military "development" of the territory of Ukraine and deployment of NATO infrastructure. It is no coincidence that the aforementioned flagrant law on "indigenous peoples" was adopted under the cover of large-scale NATO exercises in Ukraine.
This is also a disguise for the takeover of the rest of the Ukrainian economy and the exploitation of its natural resources. The sale of agricultural land is not far off, and it is obvious who will buy it up. From time to time, Ukraine is indeed given financial resources and loans, but under their own conditions and pursuing their own interests, with preferences and benefits for Western companies. By the way, who will pay these debts back? Apparently, it is assumed that this will have to be done not only by today's generation of Ukrainians but also by their children, grandchildren and probably great-grandchildren.
The Western authors of the anti-Russia project set up the Ukrainian political system in such a way that presidents, members of parliament and ministers would change but the attitude of separation from and enmity with Russia would remain. Reaching peace was the main election slogan of the incumbent president. He came to power with this. The promises turned out to be lies. Nothing has changed. And in some ways the situation in Ukraine and around Donbas has even degenerated.
In the anti-Russia project, there is no place either for a sovereign Ukraine or for the political forces that are trying to defend its real independence. Those who talk about reconciliation in Ukrainian society, about dialogue, about finding a way out of the current impasse are labelled as "pro-Russian" agents.
Again, for many people in Ukraine, the anti-Russia project is simply unacceptable. And there are millions of such people. But they are not allowed to raise their heads. They have had their legal opportunity to defend their point of view in fact taken away from them. They are intimidated, driven underground. Not only are they persecuted for their convictions, for the spoken word, for the open expression of their position, but they are also killed. Murderers, as a rule, go unpunished.
Today, the "right" patriot of Ukraine is only the one who hates Russia. Moreover, the entire Ukrainian statehood, as we understand it, is proposed to be further built exclusively on this idea. Hate and anger, as world history has repeatedly proved this, are a very shaky foundation for sovereignty, fraught with many serious risks and dire consequences.
All the subterfuges associated with the anti-Russia project are clear to us. And we will never allow our historical territories and people close to us living there to be used against Russia. And to those who will undertake such an attempt, I would like to say that this way they will destroy their own country.
The incumbent authorities in Ukraine like to refer to Western experience, seeing it as a model to follow. Just have a look at how Austria and Germany, the USA and Canada live next to each other. Close in ethnic composition, culture, in fact sharing one language, they remain sovereign states with their own interests, with their own foreign policy. But this does not prevent them from the closest integration or allied relations. They have very conditional, transparent borders. And when crossing them the citizens feel at home. They create families, study, work, do business. Incidentally, so do millions of those born in Ukraine who now live in Russia. We see them as our own close people.
Russia is open to dialogue with Ukraine and ready to discuss the most complex issues. But it is important for us to understand that our partner is defending its national interests but not serving someone else's, and is not a tool in someone else's hands to fight against us.
We respect the Ukrainian language and traditions. We respect Ukrainians' desire to see their country free, safe and prosperous.
I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.
Today, these words may be perceived by some people with hostility. They can be interpreted in many possible ways. Yet, many people will hear me. And I will say one thing – Russia has never been and will never be "anti-Ukraine". And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide.
Actually, I feared that a moment would come when my political Russophobia would clash with my cultural Russophilia and I'd have to make a choice. It's tough and probably unfair but I have to say this: had Russians never existed, then we'd have never had Russian culture and science but also we'd have never had all the evil Russians did and all the pain and suffering they inflicted on each and every nation which had the misfortune of being their neighbours at some point in time --- therefore, I would gladly exchange every note of Tchaikovsky's music for every life saved by Russians never having been walked the earth at all --- and the balance would be vastly on the lives side.
There are several reports that the Russian army has taken control of Antonov/Hostomel Airport, 15 miles north of Kyiv.
Quote from: Que on February 24, 2022, 07:57:55 AM
There are several reports that the Russian army has taken control of Antonov/Hostomel Airport, 15 miles north of Kyiv.
Before 1989, there was a widely-circulated joke in Romania, and probably in the whole Eastern Europe:
Which are the neighbours of the USSR? Whichever neighbours the USSR wants.
In 1916 following a Crown Council Romania ditched her neutrality and joined the Entente against Austro-Hungary (mainly) and Germany. Petre Carp, a veteran statesman, told King Ferdinand verbatim: Your Majesty, I have two sons which I'll send to war. Yet I wish the Romanian Army were defeated, because don't you ever think that a victorious Russia would tolerate an independent Romanian state on its borders. Prophetic words.
I'm surprised how quickly Russian forces are in the extreme west of Ukraine.
Whether or not they block refugee traffic 'convoys' or not, travel through live-fire zones is going to be extremely hazardous - especially if they hit a large bridge clogged with hundreds of vehicles. And will they stop without grabbing Moldavia?
Quote from: Scion7 on February 24, 2022, 08:15:40 AM
I'm surprised how quickly Russian forces are in the extreme west of Ukraine.
Whether or not they block refugee traffic 'convoys' or not, travel through live-fire zones is going to be extremely hazardous - especially if they hit a large bridge clogged with hundreds of vehicles. And will they stop without grabbing Moldavia?
The treacherous collaboration of Belarus has given Russia a major strategic advantage.
As I have expressed before, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin's next target will be Moldova (Moldavia).
He will at least annexate the runaway territory of Transnistria.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 24, 2022, 08:15:40 AM
I'm surprised how quickly Russian forces are in the extreme west of Ukraine.
I'm not. How well defended is the extreme west of Ukraine? How well defended is
any region of Ukraine? Actually, is there anything like a regular Ukrainian Army prepared and willing to fight the Red Army?
Heck, this morning an Ukrainian Suhoi military plane entered the Romanian air space and was forced to land on a military airport by our air forces. The pilot willingly put himself under the custody of the Romanian authorities. This looks like desertion to me. The tragedy is that we can't even protect him because he's a member of a non-NATO military force fighting another non-NATO military force so under international law we are obliged to return him to Ukraine's military force. His (paradoxical) luck might be that by the time his hearing ends there might not be any Ukrainian military force to be returned to.
And btw, hundreds of Ukrainian refugees are already entering Romania. The number might increase dramatically in the next days.
Quotewill they stop without grabbing Moldavia?
They will probably grab Transnistria first.
"The treacherous collaboration of Belarus ..."
Yes, but let's not forget this is the treachery of the Russian-aligned thug(s) at the top.
As soon as 30,000+ Russian troops entered the country, it was de facto part of the RF again.
And all the protests against Lyin'shenko ended abruptly.
Quote from: Que on February 24, 2022, 08:26:22 AM
He will at least annexate the runaway territory of Transnistria.
You beat me to it.
To be historically accurate, though, it must be said that before USSR Transnistria was never part of Moldavia (Romania). It was yet another geographical Bolshevik puzzle game.
Things missing from Putin's speech:
Stalin's Famine and associated genocidal actions
Khmelnytsky's revolt included the greatest series of massacres of Jews between the First Crusade and the Holocaust
He couldn't completely evade the fact that most of that period of supposed transRussian comity the region was full of smaller political entities fighting among themselves, and not a unified single political entity.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 08:36:13 AM
I'm not. How well defended is the extreme west of Ukraine? How well defended is any region of Ukraine? Actually, is there anything like a regular Ukrainian Army prepared and willing to fight the Red Army?
Heck, this morning an Ukrainian Suhoi military plane entered the Romanian air space and was forced to land on a military airport by our air forces. The pilot willingly put himself under the custody of the Romanian authorities. This looks like desertion to me. The tragedy is that we can't even protect him because he's a member of a non-NATO military force fighting another non-NATO military force so under international law we are obliged to return him to Ukraine's military force. His (paradoxical) luck might be that by the time his hearing ends there might not be any Ukrainian military force to be returned to.
And btw, hundreds of Ukrainian refugees are already entering Romania. The number might increase dramatically in the next days.
They will probably grab Transnistria first.
I saw that about the Ukrainian pilot online this morning. An explanation proffered for it was that Russia may have bombed into ruins or seized all available airfields, so he had no safe place to land in Ukraine. If so he wasn't deserting, but keeping himself and his plane out of Russian hands.
There's also a clip online (apparently originating from a Ukrainian Army account, but consider it unverified) of a Russian unit which surrendered to Ukrainian forces) so it seems the Ukrainian military is not doing a brave Sir Robin.
That pilot will be spirited away to Germany or the UK ASAP - the NATO intelligence people will want to get every scrap of info he can provide.
Quote from: JBS on February 24, 2022, 08:41:43 AM
Things missing from Putin's speech:
Stalin's Famine and associated genocidal actions
Khmelnytsky's revolt included the greatest series of massacres of Jews between the First Crusade and the Holocaust
He couldn't completely evade the fact that most of that period of supposed transRussian comity the region was full of smaller political entities fighting among themselves, and not a single political entity.
Of course.
And I'm pretty sure Khmelnytsky's revolt was motivated more by personal grudges and humiliations than by any sense of common nationhood and faith with Russia. Had the Poles acquiesced to his pretentions, he'd quite possibly never have left the Rzecpospolita.
Why didn't Russia join NATO when it was offered? Since the country is the most "surrounded" on earth on account of its own imperialism, it would have been a smart move if the defense of its borders was the prime consideration. It would be allied with the neighbors it is most concerned about.
Yes, yes, you know the answers. We're seeing them play out. I merely wish to clarify that NATO is only a threat to Russian expansionist aggression, not a Russian state seeking international cooperation on equal terms with the nations on its borders, NATO members or not. I trust this is clear.
Ex-Nato head says Putin wanted to join alliance early on in his rule (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule)
George Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary who led Nato between 1999 and 2003, said Putin made it clear at their first meeting that he wanted Russia to be part of western Europe. "They wanted to be part of that secure, stable prosperous west that Russia was out of at the time," he said.
The Labour peer recalled an early meeting with Putin, who became Russian president in 2000. "Putin said: 'When are you going to invite us to join Nato?' And [Robertson] said: 'Well, we don't invite people to join Nato, they apply to join Nato.' And he said: 'Well, we're not standing in line with a lot of countries that don't matter.'"
The account chimes with what Putin told the late David Frost in a BBC interview shortly before he was first inaugurated as Russian president more than 21 years ago. Putin told Frost he would not rule out joining Nato "if and when Russia's views are taken into account as those of an equal partner".
He told Frost it was hard for him to visualise Nato as an enemy. "Russia is part of the European culture. And I cannot imagine my own country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the civilised world."
Quote from: Todd on February 24, 2022, 06:48:18 AM
So Putin went all in. Perhaps he is rational, perhaps not. After achieving military aims, it remains to be seen if Russia rules Ukraine outright, or if it will it set up a regime - presumably using some form of "democracy".
I don't think Russia has any intention of occupying Ukraine in its entirety, nor would it gain any strategic advantage from doing so. If I had to guess, I would say Russia would topple the government and install a new regime, and then withdraw to occupy the separatist territories (possibly including parts of Kharkiv or Mariupol this time), and that the entire purpose of the war would be to create "facts on the ground" that would give it leverage and a more favourable negotiating position for whatever set of agreements will supersede Minsk. I say this only because this is a route the USA and its allies have used semi-successfully on a few occasions, although recently (as in e.g. Yemen) the resulting negotiations failed to stop or even slow down the war.
I definitely don't think NATO will intervene or try to draw out the conflict—Poland and Romania do not want millions of Ukrainian refugees at their borders, and Western Europe doesn't want the kind of recession caused by cutting off the fuel supply from Russia via prolonged sanctions. And regardless of what ideological justification Putin uses to maintain widespread
public support, if he really is intending a prolonged war to occupy and annex Ukraine, I do not think Russia's military and economic ruling class will stay on his side for very long, and they're ultimately the ones that keep him in power.
But I'm not a geopolitical expert, and don't have any real insights to offer here. The likely worst-case scenario here is Kosovo scaled up by a factor of ten: long-term mass displacement, significant loss of life, widespread devastation of infrastructure, prolonged occupation. The likely
best-case scenario here is Gaza 2009: a brief, if still highly destructive, war ending in a diplomatic stalemate. A worse outcome is possible (Syria/Libya/Afghanistan: mass national destruction without any occupation to restore order, leaving everything in the hands of competing warlords) but a better one (Six-Day War: rapid, casualty-light "victory" and relatively bloodless occupation; Lebanon 2006: rapid, casualty-light "defeat" leading to significant domestic/international loss of face) doesn't seem to be.
("Better" and "worse" are here used in terms of length of time before peace is restored, amount of material damage done, and likelihood of peace continuing for a long time afterwards, not in terms of which side "wins". The only people who truly win wars are the ones selling the weapons.)
Regardless, we're looking at a difficult next few days to weeks, with no chance the Russians will come to the negotiating table at all until they've either achieved a significant objective or suffered a significant military setback. Our best hope for peace is that one of those two things happens before the end of the month and that it does so in a relatively bloodless fashion (e.g. destroying military bases that have already been evacuated, etc.) I assume the Ukrainians will be a bit more willing to come to the table due to their military disadvantages and the losses they've taken already, but given issues of national pride and so on, who knows; they too might be waiting for a military victory to ensure
their negotiating position is better.
Quote from: drogulus on February 24, 2022, 09:07:58 AM
Why didn't Russia join NATO when it was offered?
? NATO decides to approve membership. Offering Ukraine to get their military up-to-snuff in order to qualify was the only policy in effect. There is no way that (yesterdays) Ukraine was ready to be a part of NATO - they don't have the proper communications ability, for starters.
As Scholz said, Ukrainian NATO membership was not even on the table. This casus belli is ridiculous.
Putin is a mad dog. One doesn't negotiate with a mad dog. One shoots a mad dog.
Navalny and his co-conspirators on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1496099313990225922?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1496099313990225922%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2022%2F02%2F24%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fnavalny-russia-ukraine.html
Quote from: Scion7 on February 24, 2022, 09:23:24 AM
? NATO decides to approve membership. Offering Ukraine to get their military up-to-snuff in order to qualify was the only policy in effect. There is no way that (yesterdays) Ukraine was ready to be a part of NATO - they don't have the proper communications ability, for starters.
The question was why didn't Russia join NATO. Yes, they would have had to apply, but they didn't, and Putin offered the excuse that Russia didn't want to wait in line behind countries that don't matter.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 08:50:14 AM
Of course.
And I'm pretty sure Khmelnytsky's revolt was motivated more by personal grudges and humiliations than by any sense of common nationhood and faith with Russia. Had the Poles acquiesced to his pretentions, he'd quite possibly never have left the Rzecpospolita.
If you empty some of your inbox, I will send you something nice.
Quote from: Mandryka on February 24, 2022, 10:33:29 AM
If you empty some of your inbox, I will send you something nice.
Hit me, please.
Props to Semyon Bychkov, who openly condemned Russian aggression, cancelled a planned Moscow concert and opened today's Prague performance with the Czech Philharmonic by conducting the Ukrainian anthem.
Quote from: Rinaldo on February 24, 2022, 10:51:24 AM
Props to Semyon Bychkov, who openly condemned Russian aggression, cancelled a planned Moscow concert and opened today's Prague performance with the Czech Philharmonic by conducting the Ukrainian anthem.
Thanks so much for posting this. Perhaps a small gesture, but an important and inspiring one.
--Bruce
Quote from: Brewski on February 24, 2022, 11:02:35 AM
Thanks so much for posting this. Perhaps a small gesture, but an important and inspiring one.
--Bruce
+ 1.
Hat tip to Mr. Bychkov! I'm glad that I've only very recently got his complete Tchaikovsky Project with the Czech PO.
I sincerely wish and hope more and more Russian artists, scientists and intellectuals joined him in condemning Putin's paranoiac behaviour.
In terms of what individual classical musicians have to say, I'm kind of morbidly curious to see whether this finally knocks Valentina Lisitsa out of whatever alternate reality she's been living in where Russia is a brave crusader for the independence of the oppressed people of Eastern Ukraine or whatever. She's been uncharacteristically silent, as far as I can tell.
(Her views are not out of the ordinary for people from that particular part of the world; I know a few who've been agitating for independence from Ukraine, or at least political devolution/confederation, for a long time. None of them are, at the moment, particularly happy to see columns of Russian tanks rolling through their hometowns, and not only because it marks a significant escalation of the war; as much as they don't like the Ukrainian government, not a lot of people in that area actually want Russia to take over instead. It's complicated.)
((One could argue, of course, that they were always delusional to believe that either Russia or Ukraine would allow a new breakaway state on their borders to come into existence. But as with Nagorno-Karabakh, local/regional identity politics tends to come ahead of practical considerations. N-K also of course ended up, effectively, under indeterminate Russian occupation.))
Well, in the very minor subjects departments, Gergiev, Matsuev and Spivakov will also experience some pressure now, though it's not exactly going to ruin their lives.
Gergiev has been asked by La Scala to clarify his position, and will likely be sacked if he doesn't officially condemn the invasion
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/24/1082816024/supporters-ukraine-protest-valery-gergiev-new-york-concert
Unconfirmed news on a Romanian TV channel:
Russian troops have landed on the uninhabited Snake Island which lies only 45 km away from the Romanian coastline.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_Island_(Black_Sea) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_Island_(Black_Sea))
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 24, 2022, 11:52:33 AM
Well, in the very minor subjects departments, Gergiev, Matsuev and Spivakov will also experience some pressure now, though it's not exactly going to ruin their lives.
For sure. I'm much less interested in what they have to say because none of them (as far as I know) has any personal or family connection to eastern Ukraine, and they've all benefited much more from sponsorship from the Russian government, so they have no real angle beyond cynical self-interest.
Also, I think Valentin Silvestrov, aged 84, who's made some pro-Ukrainian statements earlier, is among the composers residing in Kyiv. I don't think he's in Germany. This must be very hard for him.
Carnegie Hall just announced that Yannick Nézet-Séguin is replacing Valery Gergiev as conductor for this weekend's three concerts with the Vienna Philharmonic. In addition, pianist Denis Matsuev will be replaced by another artist TBA.
Information on the first concert below, an all-Rachmaninoff evening:
https://www.carnegiehall.org/calendar/2022/02/25/vienna-philharmonic-orchestra-0800pm
--Bruce
I'll be blunt and say that Ukraine helds centuries-old Romanian territories which have never ever belonged to it before Lenin and Stalin gave them to Ukraine. But even so, I prefer and support an independent Ukraine as a buffer state between us and Russia to having Russia as our neighbour.
Unfortunately, it seems that Russia is once again our de facto neighbour. Arză-i-ar focul de lifte spurcate! ;D
Quote from: Brewski on February 24, 2022, 12:16:20 PM
Carnegie Hall just announced that Yannick Nézet-Séguin is replacing Valery Gergiev as conductor for this weekend's three concerts with the Vienna Philharmonic. In addition, pianist Denis Matsuev will be replaced by another artist TBA.
Information on the first concert below, an all-Rachmaninoff evening:
https://www.carnegiehall.org/calendar/2022/02/25/vienna-philharmonic-orchestra-0800pm
--Bruce
Well, that all-Rachmaninoff evening should be replaced as well.
No, really, I mean it: for the time being Russia and Russians* should be ostracized from everything to the greatest possible extent.
* except those who take a firm stance against Putin's paranoiac behaviour.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 12:19:59 PM
Well, that all-Rachmaninoff evening should be replaced as well.
No, really, I mean it: for the time being Russia and Russians* should be ostracized from everything to the greatest possible extent.
* except those who take a firm stance against Putin's paranoiac behaviour.
How do you propose Rachmaninov go about taking a firm stance against Putin?
For an interesting perspective on what is going on, I give you this:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-25/russia-ukraine-invasion-borders-power-vladimir-putin-identity/100858372
I've seen other things along the same line. There's a kind of nationalism about ancient borders and who 'naturally' belongs there that I find ridiculous, but many people including Putin cling to these kinds of traditions. See also the Serbs who believe Kosovo is inherently Serbian.
Quote from: Madiel on February 24, 2022, 12:36:48 PM
How do you propose Rachmaninov go about taking a firm stance against Putin?
I know and agree it's absurd --- but I can't help it right now being an all-out Russophobe.
Quote from: Madiel on February 24, 2022, 12:40:48 PM
See also the Serbs who believe Kosovo is inherently Serbian.
You couldn"t have chosen a worse example because this is exactly the precedent that Putin invoked.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 12:41:25 PM
I know and agree it's absurd --- but I can't help it right now being an all-out Russophobe.
It is absurd, and is frankly not different to all the things that were directed at people of Asian descent because a certain virus happened to emerge in Wuhan.
I can understand taking the position that living Russians can be impacted, particularly ones that actively support the Russian government. But having a reaction against a person of Russian descent who actually fled the country over a century ago is taking things rather too far. If anything, you're buying into Putin's attempts to claim he represents true Russian culture by associating all Russian culture with his actions.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 12:47:11 PM
You couldn"t have chosen a worse example because this is exactly the precedent that Putin invoked.
That makes it a
good example of what's going on, not a bad one.
My daughter has many friends in Kyiv dating back to her time working for the MSF charity. They have been told to stay at home but can hear the sounds of explosions - very upsetting. Putin could not stand a genuinely democratic state like Ukraine on the Russian border - a puppet state like Byelorussia is fine.
Quote from: Madiel on February 24, 2022, 12:49:58 PM
If anything, you're buying into Putin's attempts to claim he represents true Russian culture by associating all Russian culture with his actions.
Oh come on! Come on, man!
If anything, you read too much in a gut reaction.
Don't you remember that Rachmaninoff was my avatar for a long time?
Quote from: Madiel on February 24, 2022, 12:50:18 PM
That makes it a good example of what's going on, not a bad one.
Yeah, whatever.
Russian troops reportedly occupied Chernobyl.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 12:54:39 PM
Oh come on! Come on, man!
If anything, you read too much in a gut reaction.
Don't you remember that Rachmaninoff was my avatar for a long time?
The question is whether
you remember. I can only go on what you post here. And you're posting about the removal of Russian music from concerts, without any further context about just how that music is being used or what it represents.
I certainly would have a problem putting on a concert that glorifies the Russian State right now, but to me Rachmaninov simply doesn't evoke that kind of association.
Quote from: Madiel on February 24, 2022, 01:25:51 PM
The question is whether you remember. I can only go on what you post here. And you're posting about the removal of Russian music from concerts, without any further context about just how that music is being used or what it represents.
I certainly would have a problem putting on a concert that glorifies the Russian State right now, but to me Rachmaninov simply doesn't evoke that kind of association.
It's been a busy day. Good night.
https://www.youtube.com/v/K6SJEkxQsJU
Via Twitter
Obviously I can't vouch for accuracy of this narrative, but it does seem a Russian attempt to seize this airport near Kyiv was defeated.
BTW, Antonov is the cargo airline/plane manufacturer who owns the airport, while Hostomel/Gostomel is the closest town.
I am personally curious about Putin's mental condition.
Also I think that the International Judo Federation should censure him and disbar him.
Opinion on The Guardian: "As a Russian, I don't know how to live with the shame of Putin's aggression," Anonymous Russian.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/24/russian-vladimir-putin-ukraine?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Putin isn't Russia. Whatever happened here, lots of high-ranking officials in the government and military also signed off on it.
There are widespread unconfirmed reports of Russian materiel losses—although no longer as widespread as when I made this post originally, hence the edits—and the EU is still declining to sanction Russian gas exports. It sounds like the invasion is not being taken as seriously (at least by the EU/NATO) as the rhetoric about it might indicate.
(Summary of current war rumours as of 2AM EST/7AM GMT:
- Russian forces either retreating from, or advancing upon, Kherson
- Russian forces apparently hold Zhytomyr, Melitopol; Mariupol and Zaporizhia actively contested
- Ukrainian forces apparently hold Kharkiv and Chernihiv, despite ongoing fighting
- Russian forces apparently approximately ~8km from Kiev with another wave ~45km from Kiev; status of Hostomel airfield unconfirmed
- Ukraine estimates 137 casualties so far, no distinctions given between civilian/military or dead/wounded/captured. No Russian estimates, but observers think they've lost more
- Donetsk and Luhansk have been quiet with only occasional shelling; unclear if any Ukrainian units are attempting to contest the area
- Russian Su-27 shot down by Ukrainian air defence may have in fact been Ukrainian Su-27 shot down by Russian air defence?
- Alleged fighting between pro- and anti-Russian militias in Kiev; Ukrainian military destroying bridges across the Dniepr
)
(Western military analysts, who are notoriously provincial in this respect, have suggested that the Russian military is unfamiliar with modern asymmetrical warfare tactics of the Operation Cast Lead variety and is stuck in the 1970s. Considering that the Russian military was an early adopter of Cast Lead-style tactics in the North Caucasus and Georgia, and has been successfully using them in Syria for at least seven years, I seriously doubt that; as I said, I don't think they plan to occupy Ukraine at all except for maybe Donetsk/Luhansk. But we'll see.)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 24, 2022, 06:38:22 AM
No wonder the disgraced former president is so enamored of him.
Trump is arrogant enough to
assume he'll be back in the white house. So he'll keep fawning over Vlad the Mad, counting the days until their bromance can resume.
Quote from: amw on February 24, 2022, 09:01:09 PM
Putin isn't Russia. Whatever happened here, lots of high-ranking officials in the government and military also signed off on it.
There are widespread unconfirmed reports of Russian materiel losses—although no longer as widespread as when I made this post originally, hence the edits—and the EU is still declining to sanction Russian gas exports. It sounds like the invasion is not being taken as seriously (at least by the EU/NATO) as the rhetoric about it might indicate.
(Summary of current war rumours as of 2AM EST/7AM GMT:
- Russian forces either retreating from, or advancing upon, Kherson
- Russian forces apparently hold Zhytomyr, Melitopol; Mariupol and Zaporizhia actively contested
- Ukrainian forces apparently hold Kharkiv and Chernihiv, despite ongoing fighting
- Russian forces apparently approximately ~8km from Kiev with another wave ~45km from Kiev; status of Hostomel airfield unconfirmed
- Ukraine estimates 137 casualties so far, no distinctions given between civilian/military or dead/wounded/captured. No Russian estimates, but observers think they've lost more
- Donetsk and Luhansk have been quiet with only occasional shelling; unclear if any Ukrainian units are attempting to contest the area
- Russian Su-27 shot down by Ukrainian air defence may have in fact been Ukrainian Su-27 shot down by Russian air defence?
- Alleged fighting between pro- and anti-Russian militias in Kiev; Ukrainian military destroying bridges across the Dniepr
)
(Western military analysts, who are notoriously provincial in this respect, have suggested that the Russian military is unfamiliar with modern asymmetrical warfare tactics of the Operation Cast Lead variety and is stuck in the 1970s. Considering that the Russian military was an early adopter of Cast Lead-style tactics in the North Caucasus and Georgia, and has been successfully using them in Syria for at least seven years, I seriously doubt that; as I said, I don't think they plan to occupy Ukraine at all except for maybe Donetsk/Luhansk. But we'll see.)
maybe he'll get bogged down and his people will finally get sick of him.
Quote from: Florestan on February 24, 2022, 01:18:55 PM
Russian troops reportedly occupied Chernobyl.
I was going to make a very bad joke. But I didn't. You're all my witnesses that I didn't.
Some circulating intelligence info about the likely Russian strategy, focusing on establishing a strain on Kyiv in the oncoming days, the installment of a puppet regime in Kyiv, and the likely splitting of the country in two:
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1497095863864205312?s=20&t=nxXeTMdqDnAH8oZtA0OqAg
Summary of it (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497086361509187584):
1) intensify attacks along the border, so troops leave Kyiv;
2) seize one of Kyiv's airports, as sabotage groups disconnect the city from electricity and communications to cause panic;
3) organize arson and looting to create more panic;
4) launch a cyber attack on government websites;
5) induce more panic to create "uncontrolled columns of refugees' from Kyiv to block highways and hinder movement of Ukrainian troops;
6) capture and hold government buildings.
Desired goal: Seize the leadership of the state (not specified who) and force them to sign a peace agreement on Russian terms, threatening large civilian deaths.
Result – Ukraine can be divided into two parts, like East and West Germany.
Obviously, this could also be a way of preparing the Ukrainian public for some likely events.
But really, who'd be interested in becoming a new, alleged 'president' in Ukraine? You'd have to be a fanatic, facing a daily assassination threat for the rest of your days, with a dubious entourage - a life in a bunker.
Quote from: milk on February 24, 2022, 10:36:15 PM
maybe he'll get bogged down and his people will finally get sick of him.
Maybe. If they fail to take Kiev and it turns into a stalemate in the suburbs, Putin probably backs down, at least to the point of getting to the negotiating table. But if that happens it also likely turns the city into a slaughterhouse. (Which is still possible in any case, but so far, civilian casualties have been very low—a not-very-reliable Ukrainian news source claimed that a man reported killed on the outskirts of Kiev was the "first civilian casualty of the war"—and hopefully they stay that way.)
The boss from the Russian space agency, told the media that he will crash the ISS space station on Europe or America, when the sanctions against Russia would be implemented. A brutal prospect. And next to that he also mentioned of shooting all the satellites of the Western world into smithereens
I am in total shock. My life is over, because all I can do now is to fear the day Putin decides to attack my country. Happiness is impossible.
Hopefully some people will survive this madness (assuming the WWIII doesn't start in the near future). I don't feel like posting at all.
Quote from: 71 dB on February 25, 2022, 02:57:25 AM
I am in total shock. My life is over, because all I can do now is to fear the day Putin decides to attack my country. Happiness is impossible.
Hopefully some people will survive this madness (assuming the WWIII doesn't start in the near future). I don't feel like posting at all.
I have great faith in the courage and tenacity of the Finnish People.
I have been reading about the Battle of Karelia in 1944.
Quote from: "Harry" on February 25, 2022, 02:03:55 AM
The boss from the Russian space agency, told the media that he will crash the ISS space station on Europe or America, when the sanctions against Russia would be implemented. A brutal prospect. And next to that he also mentioned of shooting all the satellites of the Western world into smithereens
It is worth remembering that Russian officialdom is notorious for stating that which later proves to be false. We have just experienced this in the last few days.
Also, having read his remarks I saw no actual threats, just dramatic examples of worst-case scenarios, including the ISS re-entering over China or India.
Quote from: 71 dB on February 25, 2022, 02:57:25 AM
I am in total shock. My life is over, because all I can do now is to fear the day Putin decides to attack my country. Happiness is impossible.
Hopefully some people will survive this madness (assuming the WWIII doesn't start in the near future). I don't feel like posting at all.
Try not to worry 71. Vlad the Mad is going to be too angry at the EU and America to do anything concerning your wonderful country, at least for the present. I do hope Finland and Sweden both apply to join NATO though.
Quote from: LKB on February 25, 2022, 07:04:22 AM
Try not to worry 71. Vlad the Mad is going to be too angry at the EU and America to do anything concerning your wonderful country, at least for the present. I do hope Finland and Sweden both apply to join NATO though.
Exactly. I'm sure the Russian military* remembers what happened the last time it fought Finland.
Besides, Putin wants to reconstitute the Soviet empire, not the Tsarist empire. Finland was part of the latter but not the former.
*almost typed the Red Army from muscle memory.
Quote from: Brewski on February 24, 2022, 12:16:20 PM
Carnegie Hall just announced that Yannick Nézet-Séguin is replacing Valery Gergiev as conductor for this weekend's three concerts with the Vienna Philharmonic. In addition, pianist Denis Matsuev will be replaced by another artist TBA.
Information on the first concert below, an all-Rachmaninoff evening:
https://www.carnegiehall.org/calendar/2022/02/25/vienna-philharmonic-orchestra-0800pm
--Bruce
Along the same lines, a somewhat overseen
Netrebko concert here (I had forgotten about her), in Aarhus town this evening, is now causing uproar.
She has been promoting the separatists including the militant Oleg Tsarev, and is a friendly acquaintance of Putin. It might be too late for any changes on a local level here, but there'll probably be some manifestations, some guests will be boycotting etc. Tsarev might be a candidate for a Russian-appointed leader role in Ukraine, it's being said.
EDIT: the concert was now cancelled, she did it herself; there would be manifestations. During the process, the concert venue also got permission to cancel. Almost 1700 tickets had been sold.
Quote from: arpeggio on February 25, 2022, 06:31:56 AM
I have great faith in the courage and tenacity of the Finnish People.
I have been reading about the Battle of Karelia in 1944.
Thanks! I hope it was interesting reading. For a small country Finland isn't easy to invade, but then again Russia has massive military power and war isn't only about winning or losing the battle. Even the winners have to suffer horribly.
Quote from: LKB on February 25, 2022, 07:04:22 AM
Try not to worry 71. Vlad the Mad is going to be too angry at the EU and America to do anything concerning your wonderful country, at least for the present. I do hope Finland and Sweden both apply to join NATO though.
Russia has stated they will take action if Finland or/and Sweden joins NATO.
https://www.youtube.com/v/PJJ8zmcBH2A&t=68s&ab_channel=news.com.au
Quote from: Mandryka on February 25, 2022, 07:33:04 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/PJJ8zmcBH2A&t=68s&ab_channel=news.com.au
A very brave woman. And she used the right words for the vermin that invaded her country.
Quote from: Mandryka on February 25, 2022, 07:33:04 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/PJJ8zmcBH2A&t=68s&ab_channel=news.com.au
Yes, more and more videos are showing up with such heroic scenes from Ukraine, and combat scenes as well.
Quote from: Mandryka on February 25, 2022, 07:33:04 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/PJJ8zmcBH2A&t=68s&ab_channel=news.com.au
It must be noted, though, that the Russian soldier acts with restraint and is not aggressive. Had he been a bastard, who knows what could have happened to that woman.
This may become relevant if Trump ever gets back into office.
(https://scontent.fhou1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274726551_10229368668668151_7012025912675357741_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=yVyMukdx59MAX833nWA&_nc_ht=scontent.fhou1-1.fna&oh=00_AT-Nyyuo3mWk32WxNSkTFQx80Z48cBvBHNgMHPkwEXIwBg&oe=621D3F4D)
Quote from: 71 dB on February 25, 2022, 07:30:58 AM
... Russia has stated they will take action if Finland or/and Sweden joins NATO.
So? What exactly did Ukraine do to provoke the Russian invasion?
Nothing at all. Putin was intending to invade regardless of any reasonable accommodation Ukraine might have made. And as he has already demonstrated, his assurances mean nothing in any case.
The only immediate solution to buy time would be for EU and/or American forces to hold exercises with Finnish and Swedish forces. Putin would fume, but l very much doubt he wants direct combat against American/EU forces just now. So that could work as a stopgap measure.
But for the long term, Finland and Sweden should be making applications to NATO on an emergency basis, today.
By joining NATO, Finland and Sweden would enhance their security immeasurably, as any attack on a member requires a response from all other members. Realistically, it's the only solution that offers permanent protection.
Quote from: Florestan on February 25, 2022, 08:10:08 AM
It must be noted, though, that the Russian soldier acts with restraint and is not aggressive. Had he been a bastard, who knows what could have happened to that woman.
She was carrying a mobile herself, filming it (live?). That version can be seen on the internet too. A smart move to have two cameras.
https://twitter.com/TweetLatestNews/status/1497250484238917634
Quote from: 71 dB on February 25, 2022, 02:57:25 AM
I am in total shock. My life is over, because all I can do now is to fear the day Putin decides to attack my country. Happiness is impossible.
Sending you best wishes. Anxiety and fear are dreadful things.
Both Putin and Zelensky have now signalled they're open to negotiations, although they have yet to agree on where they will happen and under what conditions. That's a promising sign, even though they're both trying to stall until someone achieves a military victory, through various tactics (Putin, immediately after claiming he wanted to negotiate, called upon the Ukrainian armed forces to overthrow and replace Zelensky, which obviously isn't going to happen; Zelensky, immediately after claiming he wanted to negotiate, stopped responding to communications from Russia, which is the time-honoured the "new phone, who dis" ploy). Might be another couple of days before an actual ceasefire.
Ukraine claims ~2800 Russian casualties, which observers think is exaggerated, but the number's still likely high enough to keep fuelling antiwar protests in Russia. No indications of current Ukrainian casualties, but they've lost ground, particularly in the north, and Russian forces are now on the ground and actively contesting areas as far west as Mykolaiv. Urban warfare is ongoing in Kherson, Melitopol (still—despite claims of Russian control; this has probably been the bloodiest battle so far), and the Kiev suburbs. Supposedly, an amphibious assault on Odessa is planned, but it remains to be seen if that will amount to anything. Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, have potentially broken through back into Donetsk and Luhansk, although probably facing pro-Russian militias rather than the Russian army itself, and continue to dig in in areas east of Kiev while Russian forces control the western approaches to the city.
This isn't Gaza 2008 (yet) or the Eastern Front 1941 (hopefully ever), but there are definite similarities to Iran-Iraq 1980, which led to a stalemate by the end of the year: a limited initial blitzkrieg rapidly devolving into urban warfare, based on ethnonationalist justifications, with the attacker expecting local civilian support that never materialises. But with a few crucial differences (everything happening much faster, no chemical weapons involved, and both parties being already open to negotiation) that will hopefully ensure it doesn't continue into Iran-Iraq 1981-1991.
Worth remembering the scale of the human impact: Melitopol, sometimes described as a "small town" in the media, is roughly the size of Oxford (or Tallahassee, FL; or, for that matter, Raqqah). Kherson is roughly the size of Brighton (or Richmond, VA; or, for that matter, Hebron) and Mykolaiv and Luhansk are roughly the size of the Hague (or Atlanta, GA; or, for that matter, Homs). Kiev/Kyiv is larger than Paris or Damascus and about the same size as Chicago (although all of these cities have somewhat larger metropolitan areas). Kharkiv and Donetsk are comparable to Birmingham (or Austin, TX; or, for that matter, Jerusalem). Ukraine is only a "small" country by comparison with Russia, and many of the cities where the war is unfolding are comparable in population, and therefore potential human tragedy, to the Middle Eastern cities we've seen disaster porn of for ~20 years.
Quote from: 71 dB on February 25, 2022, 02:57:25 AM
I am in total shock. My life is over, because all I can do now is to fear the day Putin decides to attack my country. Happiness is impossible.
Hopefully some people will survive this madness (assuming the WWIII doesn't start in the near future). I don't feel like posting at all.
The "good" news is that Putin's official justification for invading Ukraine is a pan-Russianist ethnonationalist ideology, and there aren't significant amounts of Russians in Finland. In addition, more realistically, Donetsk and Luhansk have already been in a state of war for eight years, with some 14,000 deaths (mostly civilian), which in some respects made an eventual escalation inevitable; after Nagorno-Karabakh, which was a relative disaster for Russia, it needed to regain the trust of the separatist groups it's been sponsoring. People in Finland should be significantly more worried about future wars or low-intensity conflicts in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, and the potential repercussions these may have.
To me, Putin/Lavrov's suggestion of negotiating in Minsk seems like a case of mocking. Belarus has been annexed by Russia, which has invasion bases there, and Belarus for example recently forced a civilian RyanAir airplane down to arrest a regime-critical passenger on board. I don't think the Ukrainians would be safe. And the Russians have openly promised to arrest or eliminate parts of the current Ukrainian leadership, as an essential part of their invasion. So maybe Minsk is therefore an inside joke, less decipherable by Xi, who is less happy about the invasion, and whom Putin just spoke with on the phone, to perhaps yet demonstrate a certain will for peace.
The info from a lot of military experts is that
- Russia has apparently met more initial resistance than it expected
- about 1/3 of the invasion army is in Ukraine now, but due to the circumstances, soon, heavier and probably more indiscrimate bombings and artillery fires will begin. That is, unless Kyiv falls quickly.
- urban fighting anywhere will be extremely violent, it will minimize Russian superiority; as a rule of thumb, attackers are thought to need a majority of 6:1 for a guaranteed victory.
Btw, Germany and Italy are now supporting the Swift sanctions too.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 25, 2022, 11:20:11 AM
To me, Putin/Lavrov's suggestion of negotiating in Minsk seems like a case of mocking. Belarus has been annexed by Russia, which has invasion bases there, and Belarus for example recently forced a civilian RyanAir airplane down to arrest a regime-critical passenger on board. I don't think the Ukrainians would be safe. And the Russians have openly promised to arrest or eliminate parts of the current Ukrainian leadership, as an essential part of their invasion. So maybe Minsk is therefore an inside joke, less decipherable by Xi, who is less happy about the invasion, and whom Putin just spoke with on the phone, to perhaps yet demonstrate a certain will for peace.
I would suggest it was meant as a reference to the Minsk agreements of 2014/2015
Although given the rather maximalist claims and regime-change style rhetoric Putin has adopted, what exactly would they negotiate?
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 25, 2022, 11:20:11 AM
To me, Putin/Lavrov's suggestion of negotiating in Minsk seems like a case of mocking.
Zelensky's immediate counter-offer was Warsaw, which is equally unrealistic, with Poland widely viewed in Russia as a Western puppet state. There is a relative shortage of neutral parties who would be trusted by both sides. As such I wouldn't call this a joke; it's the initial haggling over place, time and conditions that always precedes any diplomatic encounter. (And Minsk was the site of the last round of negotiations. Circumstances there have changed, obviously.)
I do think a ceasefire (or multiple attempts at one, at least) is likely in the next few days. But given Russia's demands (it wants Ukraine to completely demilitarise, recognise Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and grant independence to the Donbass region, among others), I would not expect much progress to be made.
Quote
Btw, Germany and Italy are now supporting the Swift sanctions too.
The real question is probably Rosneft.
Quote from: LKB on February 25, 2022, 08:15:40 AM
So? What exactly did Ukraine do to provoke the Russian invasion?
Ukraine is too Western/European, too democratic and unwilling to be Putin's puppet state the way Belarus is. They are even considering joining Nato!
Quote from: LKB on February 25, 2022, 08:15:40 AMBut for the long term, Finland and Sweden should be making applications to NATO on an emergency basis, today. By joining NATO, Finland and Sweden would enhance their security immeasurably, as any attack on a member requires a response from all other members. Realistically, it's the only solution that offers permanent protection.
1) I don't have a strong opinion about Nato because I don't know enough to have one
2) I refuse to debate about Nato membership because of 1)
3) My opinion doesn't even matter. It is not up to me.
Quote from: foxandpeng on February 25, 2022, 10:06:50 AM
Sending you best wishes. Anxiety and fear are dreadful things.
Thank You! I have been watching Snooker (O'Sullivan vs Ford) and WWE wrestling (RAW) as escapism to take my mind off the horror in Ukraine... ...at least for a moment... :P
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 25, 2022, 08:15:18 AM
This may become relevant if Trump ever gets back into office.
(https://scontent.fhou1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274726551_10229368668668151_7012025912675357741_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=yVyMukdx59MAX833nWA&_nc_ht=scontent.fhou1-1.fna&oh=00_AT-Nyyuo3mWk32WxNSkTFQx80Z48cBvBHNgMHPkwEXIwBg&oe=621D3F4D)
Quite.
The whole problem with strategy of invoking history is you can usually pick a bit of history that suits you.
We need to decouple a sense of connection from a claim of ownership.
More from Carnegie Hall just now:
CARNEGIE HALL PERFORMANCES BY
MARIINSKY ORCHESTRA
WITH VALERY GERGIEV
ON MAY 3 & 4 ARE CANCELLED
(New York, NY, February 25, 2022)—Carnegie Hall announced today that its upcoming performances by the Mariinsky Orchestra, led by Valery Gergiev—scheduled for Tuesday, May 3 and Wednesday, May 4—have been cancelled due to recent world events as well as ongoing challenges related to the global COVID-19 pandemic.
These concerts will not be rescheduled.
--Bruce
Quote from: Madiel on February 25, 2022, 01:00:59 PM
Quite.
The whole problem with strategy of invoking history is you can usually pick a bit of history that suits you.
.
Reminder: Russia claimed at one point in the 19th century the entire Pacific coast down to San Francisco or thereabouts.
I'm sure, given the rhetoric the RW uses about California, at least some US RWers would gladly give the state to Putin.
Putin's No Madman (https://www.thebulwark.com/putins-no-madman/)
This will be a long fight. President Biden spoke of years of isolation for Putin. Russia will join the ranks of Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela as rogue states ruled by tyrants, cut out of the global system. This is something that should have been done long ago; it should never have required a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
These sanctions are no longer about deterrence. They are about reducing Putin's capacity and disabling his war machine. The United States and its allies should also be exploring other options to degrade Putin's ability to threaten peace and freedom in Europe and around the world. Everything needs to be on the table.
RTWT here (https://www.thebulwark.com/the-new-russia-sanctions-are-designed-to-hurt-ukraine-putin/).
For Florestan
https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291
Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees
Seen on Twitter
My wife's brother's wife's sister lives in Odessa. What I heard fifth hand (from my wife, who heard it from her father in Finland, who heard it from her brother in Finland, who heard it from his wife, who heard it from her sister in The Ukraine) is that in Odessa (as of Feb 25) they hear explosions and gunfire from their apartment, and have been instructed by the authorities not to leave their homes. (How does one get food under these conditions?) The parents have resolved to remain, the husband is not permitted to leave the country, perhaps because he will be required serve in the defense forces, but the sister and her daughter are considering fleeing to Moldova, where they would be refugees. They want their child to live in a free country, not under Russian oppression.
It's one family, it's a data point.
Quote from: JBS on February 25, 2022, 06:44:17 PM
For Florestan
https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291
Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees
What beautiful news, thank you. 0:)
--Bruce
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 25, 2022, 07:46:46 PM
My wife's brother's wife's sister lives in Odessa. What I heard fifth hand (from my wife, who heard it from her father in Finland, who heard it from her brother in Finland, who heard it from his wife, who heard it from her sister in The Ukraine) is that in Odessa (as of Feb 25) they hear explosions and gunfire from their apartment, and have been instructed by the authorities not to leave their homes. (How does one get food under these conditions?) The parents have resolved to remain, the husband is not permitted to leave the country, perhaps because he will be required serve in the defense forces, but the sister and her daughter are considering fleeing to Moldova, where they would be refugees. They want their child to live in a free country, not under Russian oppression.
It's one family, it's a data point.
And the previous uplifting news, followed by this more sober report. Thanks for posting.
--Bruce
Quote from: JBS on February 25, 2022, 06:44:17 PM
For Florestan
https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291
Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees
The darkness of war allows the good people to shine. 0:)
Quote from: amw on February 25, 2022, 10:33:49 AM
The "good" news is that Putin's official justification for invading Ukraine is a pan-Russianist ethnonationalist ideology, and there aren't significant amounts of Russians in Finland. In addition, more realistically, Donetsk and Luhansk have already been in a state of war for eight years, with some 14,000 deaths (mostly civilian), which in some respects made an eventual escalation inevitable; after Nagorno-Karabakh, which was a relative disaster for Russia, it needed to regain the trust of the separatist groups it's been sponsoring. People in Finland should be significantly more worried about future wars or low-intensity conflicts in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, and the potential repercussions these may have.
The fact that Putin has "an official justification" for invading a sovereign country that hasn't attacked or threatened Russia is alarming in itself regardless of what that justification is. I don't know what conflicts in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are you preferring to. Those are Nato countries.
(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/02/25/us/ukraine-maps-promo-1645801007862/ukraine-maps-promo-1645801007862-articleLarge-v8.png)
Looking at the map, Ukraine is unfortunate that its capital of Kyiv and its 2nd largest city of Kharkiv are so close to enemy lines. Without access from Belarus, Russian troops wouldn't be in Kyiv right now.
The Ukraine is a vast country (to European standards anyway). Will Zelensky, after putting up a very though fight in Kyiv, move his government elsewhere and regroup the Ukrainian army to continue the fight? How is Russia going to control all of this territory and these very large cities if armed resistance will continue?
It is said to be impossible to control all of Ukraine with an army the size of Russia's.
I must say that the risks of this escalating are also worrying. My understanding is that for example US and NATO officials are working on various future scenarios too, and researching heavily on the current state of the Russian leadership.
All Russian media have been informed about very strict censorship from now on.
Quote from: JBS on February 25, 2022, 06:44:17 PM
For Florestan
https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291
Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees
It's not apparently, it's a fact. Refugees are taken in people's homes in the border villages and taken care of by volunteers (some of them coming from far away places). They are sheltered and being given food and beverages. The prime-minister and the interior minister visited yesterday the largest border pass point with Ukraine. Apparenty there are 400 refugees every hour. We are officially prepared to receive 500,000 refugees but I'm sure there could be more. We will not turn away one single person asking for our help.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 12:49:39 AM
It's not apparently, it's a fact. Refugees are taken in people's homes in the border villages and taken care of by volunteers (some of them coming from far away places). They are sheltered and being given food and beverages. The prime-minister and the interior minister visited yesterday the largest border pass point with Ukraine. Apparenty there are 400 refugees every hour. We are officially prepared to receive 500,000 refugees but I'm sure there could be more. We will not turn away one single person asking for our help.
Admirable. It has been a big story here in DK too, with TV reporters on the spot.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 26, 2022, 12:45:51 AM
I must say that the risks of this escalating is also worrying. My understanding is that for example US and NATO officials are working on various future scenarios too, and researching heavily on the current state of the Russian leadership.
Agreed. There is open talk of some kind of military intervention by NATO forces, for instance in the form of a "no fly zone". Another option would be missile strikes on Russian targets on Ukrainian territory.
Legally, the Ukrainian government is perfectly entitled to could ask for foreign military assistance to defend itself. But it would open the door to armed conflict between NATOand Russian forces.
On the flipside, I wonder what will happen if Putin's plan falters and he gets dogged down in a lengthy, bloody and domestically inpopular conflict - particularly if (when) the Russian economy collapses. This might politically destabilise Russia.
Vladimir Zelensky, a Jew, is the head of a Neo-Nazi junta. Boggles the mind, but then again there are lies, blatant lies and Russian lies.
Otoh, there are more and more people demonstrating in Russia against the war. This is encouraging news. Putin's popularity might begin to erode.
I've never met any analysis on the topic of a possible inner circle opposition to Putin. Do you guys think such a thing might happen, going as far as a coup d'etat or is it mere wishful thinking?
Quote from: Que on February 26, 2022, 12:55:57 AM
Agreed. There is open talk of some kind of military intervention by NATO forces, for instance in the form of a "no fly zone". Another option would be missile strikes on Russian targets on Ukrainian territory.
Legally, the Ukrainian government is perfectly entitled to could ask for foreign military assistance to defend itself. But it would open the door to armed conflict between NATOand Russian forces.
On the flipside, I wonder what will happen if Putin's plan falters and he gets dogged down in a lengthy, bloody and domestically inpopular conflict - particularly if (when) the Russian economy collapses. This might politically destabilise Russia.
I'm afraid any chance of direct intervention by NATO ground forces vanished several days ago. The time for such deployments would have been when Russian forces were beginning to assemble near the Ukrainian borders.
Airpower and sea- launched cruise misses can erode defenses and capabilities, but both would be too little and too late now. ( Not to mention the civilian casualties that would inevitably result. ) And direct attacks upon Russian forces would almost certainly escalate the war beyond Ukrainian territory.
Unilateral assistance from the various member states is the best option right now. NATO had a window where it might have made a crucial difference, but l think that time was already past before Putin moved into the breakaway regions.
Quote from: LKB on February 26, 2022, 02:15:10 AM
I'm afraid any chance of direct intervention by NATO ground forces vanished several days ago. The time for such deployments would have been when Russian forces were beginning to assemble near the Ukrainian borders.
Airpower and sea- launched cruise misses can erode defenses and capabilities, but both would be too little and too late now. ( Not to mention the civilian casualties that would inevitably result. ) And direct attacks upon Russian forces would almost certainly escalate the war beyond Ukrainian territory.
Unilateral assistance from the various member states is the best option right now. NATO had a window where it might have made a crucial difference, but l think that time was already past before Putin moved into the breakaway regions.
Absent a coup removing Putin, it seems like there needs to be a solution allowing him to save face while getting Russia out. I wonder if there's a way. I wonder what are the chances of getting rid of Putin.
Breaking News from Romania: an Ukrainian refugee gave birth today to a 3.9-kg boy in a hospital in Botoșani. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boto%C8%99ani (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boto%C8%99ani)).
There'll probably be more such cases in the future.
Quote from: milk on February 26, 2022, 02:25:02 AM
I wonder what are the chances of getting rid of Putin.
Short of assassination / coup d'etat / heart attack / stroke , zero.
I am impressed by President Zelensky's behaviour. He was often derided as a second-hand comedian but the bravery and defiance he displays shows he is a courageous and determined person. He apparently turned down an US offer to be safely evacuated.
Nobody lives forever, and Vlad the Mad has undoubtedly made a good number of enemies both within and without Russian borders. But despite his criminal acts and the absurd things he's currently saying, he's patient, intelligent and a survivor. I doubt there's anyone with the requisite access who isn't either beholden to him or controlled by him.
But of course, one never knows.
Zelensky is showing tremendous leadership. I doubt anyone else could perform better.
In order to relieve the pressure on border towns and villages a well-known Bucharest millionaire sent a column of buses to take a few hundred refugees and bring them to Bucharest where they'll be housed in the large training base of the football club he owns.
Best scenario, in attempting to recreate the Soviet Union, Putin accidentally recreates the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin thinks this action in Ukraine will be a redo of the second war in Chechnya, which cemented his rule in Russia. Maybe it will be his Afghanistan, the failure of which exposed the rot at the center of the Soviet Union. The 'central planning' of the Soviet Union stifled the economy, and the cronyism and corruption of the current Russian economy prevents it from any creative activity other than petroleum, weapons and cyber weapons.
Let's hope Ukraine is as tenacious as Afghanistan.
The quandary for Europe, how to you fight an enemy that you depend on. Can Europe function without Russian petroleum (in the near and medium term)? And can Russia function without customers for its petroleum?
Quote from: JBS on February 25, 2022, 06:44:17 PM
For Florestan
https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291
Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees
I'm certainly not immune either, to a touch of heart-swell at the sight of helping hands offered spontaneously in the heat of adversity. In a world that seems to reward brutality and aggression, it seems particularly inspiring.
Rather obliquely:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/arts/music/valery-gergiev-putin-munich-rotterdam.html
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 26, 2022, 04:20:46 AM
Let's hope Ukraine is as tenacious as Afghanistan.
For the time being they are surprisingly resilient, including at popular level. With adequate military and financial help from the West they really have a chance, if not to repel the Russians, at least to block their advance and come to a protracted standstill.
Quote
The quandary for Europe, how to you fight an enemy that you depend on. Can Europe function without Russian petroleum (in the near and medium term)? And can Russia function without customers for its petroleum?
How do you call Germany's move to give up nuclear power plants and become completely dependent on Russian gas? Stupidity? Treason? The nefarious heritage of Schroeder and Merkel will haunt Europe for years to come.
Quote from: Iota on February 26, 2022, 04:26:44 AM
I'm certainly not immune either, to a touch of heart-swell at the sight of helping hands offered spontaneously in the heat of adversity. In a world that seems to reward brutality and aggression, it seems particularly inspiring.
We would betray our own history and renege on our most cherished values if we didn't help people in distress who come to our land. I hope it is noticed that faced with a massive wave of refugees we didn't erect any barbed-wire barriers; on the contrary, all our border pass points are and will remain open and we'll do our best to accomodate and feed these unfortunate people until they will be able to safely return to their homes. According to the authorities, 54 refugess officially applied for asylum.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 05:00:33 AM
We would betray our own history and renege on our most cherished values if we didn't help people in distress who come to our land. I hope it is noticed that faced with a massive wave of refugees we didn't erect any barbed-wire barriers; on the contrary, all our border pass points are and will remain open and we'll do our best to accomodate and feed these unfortunate people until they will be able to safely return to their homes. According to the authorities, 54 refugess officially applied for asylum.
Indeed. Kudos, Romania!
Former Romanian President Traian Băsescu: Well, what did you expect? This is all Putin knows: guns and tanks. Indeed, the man seems stuck in the 1940s.
Quote from: JBS on February 25, 2022, 06:44:17 PM
For Florestan
https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291
Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees
Good to hear that; thank you for sharing that news.
I heard yesterday(?) that there were a number of Polish people who were providing food and water to Ukrainians crossing the border and also opening up their homes to women and children.
PD
Breaking News: All commercial and passenger Russian airplanes forbidden to enter the Romanian airspace.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 26, 2022, 05:22:24 AM
Good to hear that; thank you for sharing that news.
I heard yesterday(?) that there were a number of Polish people who were providing food and water to Ukrainians crossing the border and also opening up their homes to women and children.
PD
I'm convinced the Polish people and authorities act exactly the same way as the Romanian people and authorites.
According to a Romanian TV channel, Putin is quite furious about Kharkiv not being taken yet, let alone Kyiv. If true, it looks like he grossly underestimated the Ukrainian army's strength and resilience. That's very good news.
Btw, what about sanctions against Belarus? Lukashenko's behaviour is as ignominious as Putin's.
Putin's last ally in Europe, Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán, falls in line:
Hungary Won't Block Any Sanctions Against Russia, PM Orban Says (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-26/hungary-wont-block-any-sanctions-against-russia-pm-orban-says)
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 05:39:58 AM
According to a Romanian TV channel, Putin is quite furious about Kharkiv not being taken yet, let alone Kyiv. If true, it looks like he grossly underestimated the Ukrainian army's strength and resilience. That's very good news.
Btw, what about sanctions against Belarus? Lukashenko's behaviour is as ignominious as Putin's.
President Biden has already announced sanctions against Belarus.
Quote from: Que on February 26, 2022, 05:41:32 AM
Putin's last ally in Europe, Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán, falls in line:
Hungary Won't Block Any Sanctions Against Russia, PM Orban Says (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-26/hungary-wont-block-any-sanctions-against-russia-pm-orban-says)
Afaik, Germany is still reluctant to exclude Russia from SWIFT. :o
Quote from: LKB on February 26, 2022, 05:44:42 AM
President Biden has already announced sanctions against Belarus.
Very good.
In order to facilitate communications between refugees and their relatives in Ukraine, Vodafone Romania and Orange Romania announced that calls to Ukraine are now free of charge. Also, they began distributing free of charge pre-paid SIMs to the refugees.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 02:33:52 AM
Short of assassination / coup d'etat / heart attack / stroke , zero.
Yes, Putin has engineered that there would be no peaceful transfer of power to anyone not Putin. Mo wonder he's the Model for Mar-A-Lago
Quote from: LKB on February 26, 2022, 02:59:50 AM
Zelensky is showing tremendous leadership. I doubt anyone else could perform better.
God give him strength and wisdom.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 26, 2022, 04:20:46 AM
Best scenario, in attempting to recreate the Soviet Union, Putin accidentally recreates the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin thinks this action in Ukraine will be a redo of the second war in Chechnya, which cemented his rule in Russia. Maybe it will be his Afghanistan, the failure of which exposed the rot at the center of the Soviet Union. The 'central planning' of the Soviet Union stifled the economy, and the cronyism and corruption of the current Russian economy prevents it from any creative activity other than petroleum, weapons and cyber weapons.
Let's hope Ukraine is as tenacious as Afghanistan.
The quandary for Europe, how to you fight an enemy that you depend on. Can Europe function without Russian petroleum (in the near and medium term)? And can Russia function without customers for its petroleum?
Indeed. And over here, as the pandemic has exposed, Americans are growing incapable of even reasonable sacrifice. Will we have the stomach for what starving Putin out will mean for us?
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 04:32:58 AM
For the time being they are surprisingly resilient, including at popular level. With adequate military and financial help from the West they really have a chance, if not to repel the Russians, at least to block their advance and come to a protracted standstill.
How do you call Germany's move to give up nuclear power plants and become completely dependent on Russian gas? Stupidity? Treason?
At best, ill advised.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 26, 2022, 06:01:55 AM
God give him strength and wisdom.
Amen!
I confess I didn't expect such a fierce resistance from the Ukrainian forces, I rather thought the Afghan Army scenario will repeat itself. I'm glad I was wrong. May God grant that Ukraine be Putin's Afghanistan and undoing.
It's not just the TrumPutinists in the US that spread lies and distortions about Russia and Ukraine.
Deleted Tweets Reveal a Progressive Group's Ukraine Meltdown (https://www.thedailybeast.com/gravel-institute-deleted-tweets-reveal-a-progressive-groups-ukraine-meltdown?ref=home)
The Romanian Labour Minister just announced: Ukrainian refugees can work in Romania if they so wish without any special work permit for 9 months, during which they are entitled to social security and healthcare. After the 9-month term they can apply for a prolonged work permit if they so wish.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 06:23:01 AM
The Romanian Labour Minister just announced: Ukrainian refugees can work in Romania if they so wish without any special work permit for 9 months, during which they are entitled to social security and healthcare. After the 9-month term they can apply for a prolonged work permit if they so wish.
So civilized.
--Bruce
Right now, demonstration in Bucharest in front of the Russian Embassy.
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 06:17:56 AM
It's not just the TrumPutinists in the US that spread lies and distortions about Russia and Ukraine.
Deleted Tweets Reveal a Progressive Group's Ukraine Meltdown (https://www.thedailybeast.com/gravel-institute-deleted-tweets-reveal-a-progressive-groups-ukraine-meltdown?ref=home)
On the flip side, reportedly the Anonymous hacker group extracted some critical information about Russian military and hacked the Kremlin website. Way to go, guys!
I played in a concert for Ukrainians a few years ago. I don't remember what the occasion was, but I dug up an email that shows the concert was on August 24, 2014. I remember it was the first time I was in a room with a thousand Ukranians, many of them were in full military uniforms. The concert included symphony orchestra, ballet, church choir, folk instruments, etc. The orchestra was released about two hours in but I stayed as audience for another hour and really enjoyed it. I had a lovely time and got a sense they were very warm and generous people. The kind who would give you, as a guest, everything of theirs though they had little themselves. I wish them all peace and safety in this unjust invasion. They deserve peace and prosperity. Truly sad times to see such naked aggression on innocent people. :(
Quote from: relm1 on February 26, 2022, 06:40:14 AM
I played in a concert for Ukrainians a few years ago. I don't remember what the occasion was, but I dug up an email that shows the concert was on August 24, 2014. I remember it was the first time I was in a room with a thousand Ukranians, many of them were in full military uniforms. The concert included symphony orchestra, ballet, church choir, folk instruments, etc. The orchestra was released about two hours in but I stayed as audience for another hour and really enjoyed it. I had a lovely time and got a sense they were very warm and generous people. The kind who would give you, as a guest, everything of theirs though they had little themselves. I wish them all peace and safety in this unjust invasion. They deserve peace and prosperity. Truly sad times to see such naked aggression on innocent people. :(
The sad irony / paradox is that, according to numerous testimonies, ordinary Russian people are no different. (I personally don't know, I have no Russian acquaintances --- what I know about Russians is from their literature). So I think ordinary Russians too are innocent people who deserve peace and prosperity. It's only that their rulers have been mostly ruthless tyrants with complete and utter disregard for anything other than their own power and glorification.
May God deliver Ukrainians from the Putinist aggression and the Russians from the Putinist tyranny.
I just remembered two things which are representative for how Romanians feel with regard to Russia.
1. In 2017 on December 1st (our National Day) I was, together with my wife, son and late father-in-law, in the public of the military parade. Incidentally, we were located exactly vis-a-vis the Russian Embassy. So, when my at the time four-year-nine-month son asked his mother in a loud voice: "Mom, where are our cruel ennemies?" ("your cruel ennemies" is a line from our national anthem which dates back from the (much more anti-Russian than anti-Ottoman) 1848 Revolution time --- and which he must have overheard when sung by the chorus), I replied in a loud voice: "Just across the street, my son, just across the street!", thus provoking an uproarious laughter among neighboring people. ;D ;D ;D
2. A lot earlier than that (it must have been in early 1990s) I was in a crowded bus a few days before May 9. The driver was listening to a radio station which announced that the Russian authorities considered using rockets in order to disperse the heavy clouds that were hanging over Moscow and threatened to disrupt the Victory Day parade with heavy rains. A guy standing next beside me cried out loudly: "Please, Lord, make it snow!", thus provoking an uproarious laughter all across the bus. ;D ;D ;D
Quote from: Brewski on February 26, 2022, 06:25:36 AM
So civilized.
--Bruce
Never happen in the US, Shamefully.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 26, 2022, 07:32:36 AM
Never happen in the US, Shamefully.
Well, as long as the refugees were white, blond, well-dressed, spoke perfect American English and demonstrated an immediate interest in spending dollars within the local economy, they'd be welcomed with open arms.
(https://i0.wp.com/www.nasul.tv/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/caricatura-Vladimir-Putin.jpg?fit=670%2C960&ssl=1)
The left in Western countries has taken a familiar line. Are you ready? 3,2,1 go......
No to War, No to NATO.
Following the leftist logic, should the Ukrainian military and armed civilians surrender to the advancing Russia troops in the name of Peace, and to set a proper example for the millions of Europeans who might be next? Oh, and should they also reveal the secret hideout of the NAZI Jew criminal Zelensky and his drug addicted compatriots?
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 08:43:29 AM
The left in Western countries has taken a familiar line. Are you ready? 3,2,1 go......
No to War, No to NATO.
Following the leftist logic, should the Ukrainian military and armed civilians surrender to the advancing Russia troops in the name of Peace, and to set a proper example for the millions of Europeans who might be next? Oh, and should they also reveal the secret hideout of the NAZI Jew criminal Zelensky and his drug addicted compatriots?
Further proof that stupidity still is not the exclusive province of Trumpkins.
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 08:43:29 AM
The left in Western countries has taken a familiar line. Are you ready? 3,2,1 go......
No to War, No to NATO.
Following the leftist logic, should the Ukrainian military and armed civilians surrender to the advancing Russia troops in the name of Peace, and to set a proper example for the millions of Europeans who might be next? Oh, and should they also reveal the secret hideout of the NAZI Jew criminal Zelensky and his drug addicted compatriots?
What Western left are you talking about actually?
(Be it asked from yours truly, who is very far from being a left sympathizer / supporter / defender).
I mean, just today I've heard Frans Timmermans, a left Dutch / EU politician, criticizing heavily not only Putin but also the weak, hesitating and egotistic Western world's response to his aggressive policies.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 08:58:55 AM
What Western left are you talking about actually?
Probably the wacky fringe of the US Left.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 26, 2022, 09:09:59 AM
Probably the wacky fringe of the US Left.
As I said, I am not a left sympathizer, let alone a leftist*, but it seems to me that the Western mainstream left is (1) strongly opposed to Putin and his aggressive policies, and (2) strongly committed to NATO. I am not aware of any Western mainstream left party or politician opposed to NATO.
* I consider myself a centrist extremist ;D
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 08:43:29 AM
The left in Western countries has taken a familiar line. Are you ready? 3,2,1 go......
No to War, No to NATO.
Following the leftist logic, should the Ukrainian military and armed civilians surrender to the advancing Russia troops in the name of Peace, and to set a proper example for the millions of Europeans who might be next? Oh, and should they also reveal the secret hideout of the NAZI Jew criminal Zelensky and his drug addicted compatriots?
You're early. One aspect is that evidence of Russian war crimes will likely become overwhelming for the general public.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 09:17:00 AM
As I said, I am not a left sympathizer, let alone a leftist*, but it seems to me that the Western mainstream left is (1) strongly opposed to Putin and his aggressive policies, and (2) strongly committed to NATO. I am not aware of any Western mainstream left party or politician opposed to NATO.
* I consider myself a centrist extremist ;D
I agree with this. The only people I can see as sympathizing with Putin et al are the US Far Right Trumpists, and I actually believe they are doing so not because they actually 'like' Putin, but because they hate Biden. The overwhelming sense I get from reading their shit on Twitter is that it is more important to attack the POTUS than it is to recognize that our traditional enemies are still our enemies, just as they always have been. The mental gymnastics needed to maintain that belief against all evidence to the contrary must be exhausting them. ::)
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on February 26, 2022, 09:24:33 AM
I agree with this. The only people I can see as sympathizing with Putin et al are the US Far Right Trumpists, and I actually believe they are doing so not because they actually 'like' Putin, but because they hate Biden. The overwhelming sense I get from reading their shit on Twitter is that it is more important to attack the POTUS than it is to recognize that our traditional enemies are still our enemies, just as they always have been. The mental gymnastics needed to maintain that belief against all evidence to the contrary must be exhausting them. ::)
8)
Good points.
I'd also consider the possibility that a substantial volume of the "US Far Right Trumpist shit on Twitter" is produced by Russobots. :P
Quote from: T. D. on February 26, 2022, 09:28:18 AM
Good points.
I'd also consider the possibility that a substantial volume of the "US Far Right Trumpist shit on Twitter" is produced by Russobots. :P
Today the Romanian authorities shut down the main Russian propaganda tool on the Romanian internet: https://ro.sputnik.md (https://ro.sputnik.md)
It pains me to support censorship but I have to say that in this particular case they were absolutely right.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on February 26, 2022, 09:24:33 AM
I agree with this. The only people I can see as sympathizing with Putin et al are the US Far Right Trumpists, and I actually believe they are doing so not because they actually 'like' Putin, but because they hate Biden. The overwhelming sense I get from reading their shit on Twitter is that it is more important to attack the POTUS than it is to recognize that our traditional enemies are still our enemies, just as they always have been. The mental gymnastics needed to maintain that belief against all evidence to the contrary must be exhausting them. ::)
8)
Yes, and it's just ridiculous. (Also, so far I think Biden is exercising admirable restraint, which granted, may not be recognized until later.) And definitely "yes" to the mental gymnastics.
Quote from: T. D. on February 26, 2022, 09:28:18 AM
Good points.
I'd also consider the possibility that a substantial volume of the "US Far Right Trumpist shit on Twitter" is produced by Russobots. :P
And 100% for sure. Not always obvious, but most of the time, you can spot them a mile away.
--Bruce
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on February 26, 2022, 09:24:33 AM
I agree with this. The only people I can see as sympathizing with Putin et al are the US Far Right Trumpists, and I actually believe they are doing so not because they actually 'like' Putin, but because they hate Biden.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Quite possibly the most destructive fallacy in the whole history of mankind.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 09:17:00 AM
As I said, I am not a left sympathizer, let alone a leftist*, but it seems to me that the Western mainstream left is (1) strongly opposed to Putin and his aggressive policies, and (2) strongly committed to NATO. I am not aware of any Western mainstream left party or politician opposed to NATO.
* I consider myself a centrist extremist ;D
I mean the left left, not liberals. Check out Democracy Now, Noam Chomsky, Katrina Vanden Heuvel, and I don't know who else because I don't follow any of them.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on February 26, 2022, 09:24:33 AM
I agree with this. The only people I can see as sympathizing with Putin et al are the US Far Right Trumpists, and I actually believe they are doing so not because they actually 'like' Putin, but because they hate Biden. The overwhelming sense I get from reading their shit on Twitter is that it is more important to attack the POTUS than it is to recognize that our traditional enemies are still our enemies, just as they always have been. The mental gymnastics needed to maintain that belief against all evidence to the contrary must be exhausting them. ::)
8)
It's naive to think they're doing mental gymnastics or any other kind. They like Trump precisely because he relieves them of the responsibility of resolving contradictions or thinking critically. He gives a dispensation to indulge their worst impulses and to feel self-righteous about doing it. That's priceless to schmucks.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 08:58:55 AMI mean, just today I've heard Frans Timmermans, a left Dutch / EU politician, criticizing heavily not only Putin but also the weak, hesitating and egotistic Western world's response to his aggressive policies.
I don't follow Dutch politics. Is Frans Timmermans in a position of significant influence that can sway not only Dutch but also broad European and American policy responses? And what, pray tell, are the additional responses available to "The West" in this situation, save more severe sanctions, cyberwarfare, and regional destabilization?
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 09:57:29 AM
Check out Democracy Now, Noam Chomsky, Katrina Vanden Heuvel
I've never heard about DN and I was only slightly aware of KVH. Otoh I've known the useful idiot NC for years.
Sorry, they are not representative for the Western left by any stretch of imagination. Karl is absolutely right:
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 26, 2022, 09:09:59 AM
Probably the wacky fringe of the US Left.
Well, in Spain at least the "new, radical" left (Unidas Podemos, which is the junior member in the government coalition, led by the Socialist Party), immediately brought up their opposition to NATO —of which Spain is a member— when halfheartedly condemning Putin's aggression. And, truth be said, prior to the invasion, their sympathy clearly lay more with Putin and his cronies than with the West. Other parties from which the government receives parliamentary support (namely, the leftist faction of the Catalan independentists, and the political heirs of the Basque terrorist groups) also tried to invoke some bizarre equidistance, i.e. "Putin bad, NATO just as bad". Fortunately , the Prime Minister —of whom I am no fan— has been very clear about his support of Ukraine, his condemnation of Putin's actions, and about Spain being firmly in the EU/NATO/West camp.
Spain has a long tradition of latent or overt anti-Americanism. On the right, because of the historical humiliation of the Spanish-American war in 1898, the trigger of which is seen as having been —actually, it was— a pure fabrication and a dishonest act. It gave what remained of the Spanish Empire (which had been in decline for centuries) its coup de grâce. But, of course, that Empire was doomed in any case.
On the left, America is seen as the source of all evils, and the reason that has prevented the whole of Europe from enjoying the delights of the dictatorship of the proletariat. Russia, the traditional "counterweight" to American hegemony in the 20th century, is still viewed with sympathy by this lot, even if the current kleptocratic regime in Russia is a perfect example of a system that displays all the excesses and defects of capitalism, and few of its benefits. It's as if they didn't realise that, compared to the current European Social-Democratic "standard", Putin is to the right of Attila the Hun.
All rather schizophrenic, I'm afraid...
But, TBH, the vast majority of the population seems to be appalled by Russia's aggression, has huge sympathy for the Ukrainian people (of which there's a good contingent living in Spain), and is clear that their allegiance lies with the West (even if we are aware we are a rather insignificant player in this horror that is unfolding).
Germany now sending 500 stingers and 1000 anti-tank weapons, and France says it will follow too.
So new policies. But also likely that the invasion will become more brutal now.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 26, 2022, 10:11:23 AM
Germany now sending 500 stingers and 1000 anti-tank weapons, and France says it will follow too.
So new policies. But likely that the invasion will become more brutal now.
Proxy war. Very old policy. Keeps the fighting over there.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 10:05:37 AM
Is Frans Timmermans in a position of significant influence that can sway not only Dutch but also broad European and American policy responses?
I don't know but it's immaterial. He is living proof that "the Western left" is not an anti-NATO monolith.
Quotewhat, pray tell, are the additional responses available to "The West" in this situation, save more severe sanctions, cyberwarfare, and regional destabilization?
Guns-and-tanks is the only language Putin speaks and understands.
Look, I'm not advocating for a NATO war against Russia. I want peace as much as you or any other GMGer. I'm just stating the obvious.
Katrina:
NATO expansion provided the context for this crisis—a fact often ignored by our media. There is rank irrationality and irresponsibility in offering future NATO membership to Ukraine—when successive US presidents and our NATO allies have demonstrated that they do not have slightest intention of fighting to defend Ukraine. Instead, Putin's demand that Ukraine remain outside of NATO—essentially that the status quo be codified—was scorned as violating NATO's "principle" of admitting anyone it wanted.
NATO is not defending Ukraine because it's not in NATO. If the thesis is that NATO defense encourages aggression one only has to point out that Putin has validated Ukraine's fear that it needs strong allies. Weakness encourages aggressors. Strong alliances do no such thing.
Swift sanctions also officially acknowledged by Germany now.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 10:13:29 AMI don't know but it's immaterial. He is living proof that "the Western left" is not an anti-NATO monolith.
As far as I am aware, most national level US politicians are not anti-NATO. Don't know and don't care about Euroticians.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 10:13:29 AMGuns-and-tanks is the only language Putin speaks and understands.
He also understands bribery.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 10:13:29 AMLook, I'm not advocating for a NATO war against Russia. I want peace as much as you or any other GMGer. I'm just stating the obvious.
There will be no Russia-NATO (meaning USA) war. Ukraine is just not worth it.
"Provides the context for this crisis" is a vaporous claim, applicable equally to Ukraines desire to join a powerful alliance and the fact that as a nonmember their vulnerability crated the "context" for Putin's war. See, he's got context!! Well, all right then.
Quote from: BasilValentine on February 26, 2022, 10:02:43 AM
It's naive to think they're doing mental gymnastics or any other kind. They like Trump precisely because he relieves them of the responsibility of resolving contradictions or thinking critically. He gives a dispensation to indulge their worst impulses and to feel self-righteous about doing it. That's priceless to schmucks.
That was sarcasm, not naivete. ::)
8)
I'll speculate that the Uke desire to join NATO exceeds NATOs desire to join the Ukes. It wouldn't shock me if many in the US and elsewhere hoped the can could be kicked down the road forever or a little longer. Don't make the bear angry!
So, I blame the Ukes for this dastardly plot.
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 10:26:10 AM
I'll speculate that the Uke desire to join NATO exceeds NATOs desire to join the Ukes. It wouldn't shock me if many in the US and elsewhere hoped the can could be kicked down the road forever or a little longer. Don't make the bear angry!
So, I blame the Ukes for this dastardly plot.
It's just that the Russians need to be more charming. An evening school might work.
Via VAN Magazine:
German conductor Ingo Metzmacher has canceled his engagements with the Russian National Orchestra and the New Opera Theatre Moscow. He was scheduled to conduct Salome in October/November.
--Bruce
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 10:18:54 AM
As far as I am aware, most national level US politicians are not anti-NATO.
Very good.
QuoteHe also understands bribery.
Okay, then --- how much USD/EURO is he willing to take for his retiring from Ukraine?
QuoteThere will be no Russia-NATO (meaning USA) war.
I do hope so.
QuoteUkraine is just not worth it.
It's not about Ukraine alone. It's about international law and about a people's freedom to choose their own way. Iow, about principles and morality. You might play the cynicist as much as you want --- just don't you ever think that a day will not come when, after Ukraine, Moldavia, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania or any other country not worth it had been swallowed by Russia in the name of "it's not worth it", the next and final goal of Russia will be complete hegemony of the West, ie all-out war with the USA.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 10:05:37 AM
I don't follow Dutch politics. Is Frans Timmermans in a position of significant influence that can sway not only Dutch but also broad European and American policy responses?
Timmermans is VP of the European Commission.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 10:39:10 AM
Okay, then --- how much USD/EURO is he willing to take for his retiring from Ukraine?
Good question. Maybe a trillion. Europeans can plump for it. This whole situation is a European problem.
Or, "The West" will muddle through, Russia will end up with a less satisfactory than hoped for outcome, promises of further NATO expansion will be made but not promptly (or ever) followed up on, and the people of Ukraine will suffer, as will some other neighboring European countries as they absorb more refugees. The US can take a token number to show solidarity.
Too bad it's so hard to get in on the action with Turkish and South Korean arms manufacturers - they will gain from this situation. (One can always trade shares of established American players in the space, of course.)
Quote from: ritter on February 26, 2022, 10:08:54 AM
Well, in Spain at least the "new, radical" left (Unidas Podemos, which is the junior member in the government coalition, led by the Socialist Party), immediately brought up their opposition to NATO —of which Spain is a member— when halfheartedly condemning Putin's aggression. And, truth be said, prior to the invasion, their sympathy clearly lay more with Putin and his cronies than with the West. Other parties from which the government receives parliamentary support (namely, the leftist faction of the Catalan independentists, and the political heirs of the Basque terrorist groups) also tried to invoke some bizarre equidistance, i.e. "Putin bad, NATO just as bad". Fortunately , the Prime Minister —of whom I am no fan— has been very clear about his support of Ukraine, his condemnation of Putin's actions, and about Spain bring firmly in the EU/NATO/West camp.
Spain has a long tradition of latent or overt anti-Americanism. On the right, because of the historical humiliation of the Spanish-American war in 1898, the trigger of which is seen as having been —actually, it was— a pure fabrication and a dishonest act. It gave what remained of the Spanish Empire (which had been in decline for centuries) its coup de grâce. But, of course, that Empire was doomed in any case.
On the left, America is seen as the source of all evils, and the reason that has prevented the whole of Europe from enjoying the delights of the dictatorship of the proletariat. Russia, the traditional "counterweight" to American hegemony in the 20th century, is still viewed with sympathy by this lot, even if the current kleptocratic regime in Russia is a perfect example of a system that displays all the excesses and defects of capitalism, and few of its benefits. It's as if they didn't realise that, compared to the current European Social-Democratic "standard", Putin is to the right of Attila the Hun.
All rather schizophrenic, I'm afraid...
But, TBH, the vast majority of the population seems to be appalled by Russia's aggression, has huge sympathy for the Ukrainian people (of which there's a good contingent living in Spain), and is clear that their allegiance lies with the West (even if we are aware we are a rather insignificant player in this horror that is unfolding).
I will refrain from commenting on Spanish politics and history, although I have strong and informed opinions about them. I will just reiterate what I previously said: I am no left sympathizer, let alone a leftist. ;)
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 10:48:25 AM
the people of Ukraine will suffer, as will some other neighboring European countries as they absorb more refugees. The US can take a token number to show solidarity.
Ever the cynic, right?
As I said, don't you ever think that a day will not come when there will be the one final confrontation between the USA and Russia --- and maybe (just maybe) that fatal day you'd regret that so many countries not worth it had already disappeared...
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 10:54:19 AMAs I said, don't you ever think that a day will not come when there will be the one final confrontation between the USA and Russia
No. Putin is old. He will die, of natural causes or otherwise, before his nefarious plan of total Russian domination of Europe comes to pass. I mean sure, whoever comes next may be even worse, and will directly invade, oh, say, France, or whatever, precipitating the end of civilization. It's all very troubling.
In the meantime, the US has other options. Sends bags of money and tons of weapons to the Caucasus and Central Asia. Set the east ablaze.
Katrina in The Nation, a publication that is totally unheard of:
The Nation condemns the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon the path of diplomacy by attacking and undertaking "special military operations" in Ukraine. These actions violate international law and fuel a dangerous escalation of violence.
What path of diplomacy? What is this dangerous escalation? It's a fucking invasion.
OK, maybe The Nation is a little unheard of outside the US, though it's been a prominent feature of leftist journalism for as long as I can remember.
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 11:10:27 AM
Katrina in The Nation, a publication that is totally unheard of:
The Nation condemns the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon the path of diplomacy by attacking and undertaking "special military operations" in Ukraine. These actions violate international law and fuel a dangerous escalation of violence.
What path of diplomacy? What is this dangerous escalation? It's a fucking invasion.
OK, maybe The Nation is a little unheard of outside the US, though it's been a prominent feature of leftist journalism for as long as I can remember.
Well, yes, the one thing you and Todd have in common is thinking that the USA is the only country in the world that counts.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 10:59:24 AM
Putin is old. He will die, of natural causes or otherwise, before his nefarious plan of total Russian domination of Europe comes to pass.
Amin! Doamne-ajută!
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 11:21:11 AM
Well, yes, the one thing you and Todd have in common is thinking that the USA is the only country in the world that counts.
China counts. Russia counts. India counts, or will soon. If "Europe" could act in concert, it would count. That is precisely why that must never be allowed to happen.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 11:30:45 AM
If "Europe" could act in concert, it would count. That is precisely why that must never be allowed to happen.
Well, that's exactly what Putin thinks.
Молодец, товарищ Todd!
I'm not a "Western leftist" (I usually consider myself a third worldist) but, regarding leftist politics, as the only person on here who generally supports or follows such politics:
The intellectual basis behind condemning both NATO and CSTO is the view that both represent competing fascisms, and all fascism should be opposed, whether it presents as traditionalist ethnonationalism or as liberalism (as per Stalin). Of course the majority of "Western leftists" are Trotskyists of various lines and realistically shouldn't be endorsing the theory of social fascism, seeing as they themselves would be considered social fascists (a relative of mine, who was perhaps the sole committed Marxist-Leninist Zionist, regularly condemned Noam Chomsky and Amy Goodman on these grounds, for example). There may be serious Trotskyist grounds for viewing NATO and CSTO as moral and political equivalents—I'm not an expert—but I'm always reminded of Leila Khaled's description of the Western left as mired in anomie and adolescent rebellion against all forms of hierarchy, which is even more true now than it was in the 60s, and I suspect that's the main driver here.
In terms of line, Dengist Marxist-Leninists (as represented by the ruling party of the DPRK and various opposition parties in Cuba, Venezuela, etc) support Russia over Ukraine on the grounds of zero-sum imperialist competition: NATO represents a more significant imperial power than Russia and therefore anything that weakens it is good. Anti-Dengist Marxist-Leninists (prevalent mostly in India, Philippines, Latin America) support the Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics", viewing them as having true revolutionary potential, but support neither Russia nor Ukraine on social fascism theory grounds. Maoists and Pan-Africanists, for different reasons, generally believe the entire conflict is primarily spectacle manufactured to serve the economic interests of the transnational bourgeoisie, although some Latin American Maoists support Ukraine over Russia for complicated Shining Path-related reasons. Anarchists, obviously, don't take a line, and are focused on promoting mutual aid projects that provide food and shelter to refugees and internally displaced persons etc. Non-Western Trotskyists and allies (the ruling parties of Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Bolivia, etc all fall into this category) generally follow realpolitik concerns: parties under US/NATO sanctions take a neutral stance but will probably favour Russia in the long term; parties not under US/NATO sanctions generally support Ukraine over Russia. There are no significant left-wing parties in Europe/central Asia (including the post-Soviet states, whose "communist parties" are made up of right-wing nationalists) or in the settler states (USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Israel, South Africa), few of importance in the Middle East, and I'm intentionally avoiding the question of the Communist Party of China.
On a practical level, I think it's also undeniable that both NATO and CSTO are equally to blame for the current conflict. The competing interests of the EU and Russia precipitated the 2014 Ukrainian coup d'état and subsequent war in Donbas, and continued to stoke conflict for the next eight years. That said, they did so by exploiting contradictions that already existed in Ukrainian society, and it's entirely possible that civil war would have occurred without EU or Russian intervention. In addition, although NATO may be the more powerful party in terms of the global economy, worldwide military strength, etc, its crime here is its use of that power to keep Ukraine subjugated, bearing all the costs of alliance with the West and receiving none of the benefits (but remaining mostly liveable), whereas CSTO is the party actually using its power to kill people and break things. As tempting as a hands-off, both-sides-are-bad approach might be, it's probably best to leave that for after the work is done to ensure the bombs stop falling, by any means necessary.
(On a personal level I hope for a Ukrainian victory/Russian defeat. In the more likely incidence of a stalemate or a Russian victory, I hope the peace talks can limit Ukraine's concessions to two [neutrality with respect to NATO/CSTO, and outlawing of the various neo-Nazi groups such as the Azov Battalion etc—these are anyway quite small and have little support other than from western journalists]. I regard Stalin as a revisionist, Putin as a fascist, Zelensky as a liberal, the DPR/LPR as entities that should be reintegrated into Ukraine proper through peaceful negotiation, and the social fascism theory as mostly disproven by the historical materialist record. Liberalism, although I'm entirely opposed to it on political grounds, is survivable, and offers some revolutionary potential; fascism isn't, and doesn't. Could go into the reasons why, but I do not believe anyone cares.)
Quote from: amw on February 26, 2022, 11:48:48 AM
I regard Stalin as a revisionist fascist, Putin as a fascist revisionist, Zelensky as a liberal
FTFY.
Слава Україні!
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 11:59:42 AM
What the fuck is this?
Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia, last I checked: the "anti-NATO" bloc, such as it is. Tends to exist more in theory than in reality, but with Belarus actively involved in the invasion of Ukraine, it's safe to say this is one of those reality moments.
Quote from: amw on February 26, 2022, 12:05:53 PM
Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia
That's
RKBA. My question still stands unanswered: what the fuck is
CSTO?
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 12:11:11 PM
That's RKBA. My question still stands unanswered: what the fuck is CSTO?
Google Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 12:14:26 PM
Google Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Thank you.
Well, might have as well told me to google List of Russian Puppet States.
Breaking News: EU collective airspace closed to Russian airplanes.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 12:18:44 PMWell, might have as well tell me to google List of Russian Puppet States.
Fortunately, there's not even a whiff of that in NATO . . .
Since NATO is pronounced "nay-toe" (in American English at least) I've always pronounced CSTO "sis-toe" and then my brain goes "Commonwealth of Independent States Treaty Organisation" while knowing perfectly well that's not it, and never remembers the actual name. So thanks Todd.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 12:19:43 PM
Fortunately, there's not even a whiff of that in NATO . . .
Well, we'd rather gladly be an American puppet state than a Russian one.
No, really, Todd, each and every joke aside, I am dead serious: you can't even begin to imagine how much, and why, the Romanian people* hate and resent Russian hegemony.
*or any Eastern European people, for that matter
Quote from: BasilValentine on February 26, 2022, 10:02:43 AM
It's naive to think they're doing mental gymnastics or any other kind. They like Trump precisely because he relieves them of the responsibility of resolving contradictions or thinking critically. He gives a dispensation to indulge their worst impulses and to feel self-righteous about doing it. That's priceless to schmucks.
There is that.
Quote from: ritter on February 26, 2022, 10:08:54 AM
Spain has a long tradition of latent or overt anti-Americanism. On the right, because of the historical humiliation of the Spanish-American war in 1898, the trigger of which is seen as having been —actually, it was— a pure fabrication and a dishonest act.
Yes. My understanding is that the explosion on
The Maine was
a freak accident (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Maine_%281889%29)(scroll down to
1974 Rickover investigation). The push to war was hotheaded and jingoistic, no denying it. Separately, there is a piece of
The Maine kept on display in the town centre here in Woburn, Mass.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 12:29:27 PMNo, really, Todd, each and every joke aside, I am dead serious: you can't even begin to imagine how much, and why, the Romanian people* hate and resent Russian hegemony.
Oh, I don't know, that Trudeau guy is pretty imposing.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 01:07:30 PM
Oh, I don't know, that Trudeau guy is pretty imposing.
What the fuck has Trudeau got anything to do with the topic at hand?
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 25, 2022, 07:06:35 PM
Seen on Twitter
Kaliningrad
IS Russia. Someone on Twitter needs to be more careful with their cartography.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 10:48:25 AM
This whole situation is a European problem.
This is precisely how the USA's international power has collapsed.
Opinions on the merits of that collapse will vary.
Quote from: Madiel on February 26, 2022, 01:18:52 PM
Kaliningrad IS Russia. Someone on Twitter needs to be more careful with their cartography.
I'm not sure
Kant would agree... ;D
Quote from: ritter on February 26, 2022, 01:24:19 PM
I'm not sure Kant would agree... ;D
I'm not sure we want to go back centuries to invoke bits of history, otherwise Putin has a claim on the lands he wants.
EDIT: Also, Germany officially renounced all claim to it.
Quote from: Madiel on February 26, 2022, 01:18:52 PM
Kaliningrad IS Russia.
Really? Then what is the patronymic of the Russian philosopher Kant, pray tell?
Kaliningrad is actually Koenigsberg, brazenly stolen by Soviet Russia from Germany. One of the many cities/regions that Soviet Russia brazenly stole from their neighbours.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 01:28:38 PM
Really? Then what is the patronymic of the Russian philosopher Kant, pray tell?
Kaliningrad is actually Koenigsberg, brazenly stolen by Soviet Russia from Germany. One of the many cities/regions that Soviet Russia brazenly stole from their neighbours.
See above. Or just read some Wikipedia. Germany can have Koenigsberg back if Russia can have Crimea back. Deal? No? What's the problem?
What Koenigsberg
was is not relevant to what Kaliningrad
is. Kant is not alive, and clinging onto what the city was at the time of Kant is precisely the kind of thinking that got us into this mess. I've pointed this out to you before. You can't like an argument when it's against Russia and yet dislike the same argument when it's pro-Russian. Either we respect internationally agreed borders or we don't.
Quote from: Madiel on February 26, 2022, 01:22:06 PM
This is precisely how the USA's international power has collapsed.
It has not truly collapsed, and it will not for at least a few more years, but it has been declining since at least 2003. Well, since 1946, but for contemporary political purposes 2003 is probably the best starting point. That could be a very good thing. It gives the US the ability to remove itself from or even more blatantly ignore tired international institutions, wield hard military power unilaterally with no meaningful short- or medium-term consequences, and use blunt economic tools even more freely than it does now. It sort of fits in with the rogue superpower outlook.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 12:29:27 PM
Well, we'd rather gladly be an American puppet state than a Russian one.
No, really, Todd, each and every joke aside, I am dead serious: you can't even begin to imagine how much, and why, the Romanian people* hate and resent Russian hegemony.
*or any Eastern European people, for that matter
So you don't think Ukraine is fighting a "proxy war"?
Oh, and while we're at it, my acknowledgement that The Nation might actually be obscure outside of the US hardly counts as (+1 hidden)-ism. I was being almost sincere.
https://www.youtube.com/v/KQeJHL6dXu4
The German military will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 "Stinger" class surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine.
Quote from: Madiel on February 26, 2022, 01:30:22 PM
See above. Or just read some Wikipedia. Germany can have Koenigsberg back if Russia can have Crimea back. Deal? No? What's the problem?
Well, Russia does have Crimea back --- and I suppose you do have a problem with that. Or maybe not. Be it as it might, Germany does not have Koenigsberg back, nor do they claim it back.
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 01:30:51 PM
So you don't think Ukraine is fighting a "proxy war"?
No, I don't. I think Ukraine is fighting their own war --- and they are fighting it alone.
Quote from: Madiel on February 26, 2022, 01:18:52 PM
Kaliningrad IS Russia. Someone on Twitter needs to be more careful with their cartography.
True, and they've restored the name Konigsberg :)
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 10:48:25 AMThis whole situation is a European problem.
Characteristically weak analysis.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 10:48:25 AM
This whole situation is a European problem.
Just like Kosovo was, until the USA decided it's their business as well.
No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.But heck, what does a poet know? The world is ruled by cynics.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 01:54:42 PM
Just like Kosovo was, until the USA decided it's their business as well.
That was a colossal blunder on the part of the US. It was "necessitated" by the absolute incompetence of Europeans in managing European affairs. The more things change, and all that.
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 01:58:02 PM
That was a colossal blunder on the part of the US.
Wholeheartedly agreed. Putin did invoke the Kosovo precedent with respect to Crimea --- and was not contradicted because he cannot be contradicted.
US & EU have finally agreed to cut (some) Russian banks from SWIFT (as per joint EU statement about an hour ago). This is a fairly drastic sanction, although much depends on the implementation and how long it takes (they do not specify which banks they plan to cut, and only say they will launch "this coming week" a "transatlantic task force [to] ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions"; the way things are going, the military portion of the war could be over in a week).
Still, probably the first real piece of good news since the beginning of the offensive... again... in theory. Cutting Russia completely—and immediately—off from SWIFT would have almost certainly forced a ceasefire within two or three days, regardless of any theoretical Russian countersanctions. (But I guess that would prevent Europe from importing Russian fossil fuels, and the € comes first.) It's nevertheless the first actual international pressure Russia has faced so far.
(The rest of the news:
- Mariupol encircled
- heavy fighting in Kharkiv, Chernihiv
- Russia claims to have taken at least two major hydroelectric dams on the Dnipro; power cuts reported in Kiev
- fighting around, but not in, Zaporizhia, Berdyansk, Mykolaiv
- at least 200 civilian deaths reported
- Ukraine claims to have taken ~200 Russian POWs
- civil authorities in Kiev reportedly distributing weapons to civilians
- ...etc)
Quote from: amw on February 26, 2022, 02:01:11 PMUS & EU have finally agreed to cut (some) Russian banks from SWIFT (as per joint EU statement about an hour ago). This is a fairly drastic sanction, although much depends on the implementation and how long it takes (they do not specify which banks they plan to cut, and only say they will launch "this coming week" a "transatlantic task force [to] ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions"; the way things are going, the military portion of the war could be over in a week).
Still, probably the first real piece of good news... again... in theory. Cutting Russia completely—and immediately—off from SWIFT would have almost certainly forced a ceasefire within two or three days, regardless of any theoretical Russian countersanctions. (But I guess that would prevent Europe from importing Russian fossil fuels, and the € comes first.) It's nevertheless the first actual international pressure Russia has faced so far.
It's kind of hard to live without fossil fuels today. I guess which banks, and when, and so on will be kind of important. This may be the tactic that forces Putin's hand. Or maybe he's willing to live with a recession that he can then blame directly on "The West".
Honestly, there is a fierce war within my soul between political Russophobia and cultural Russophilia. The balance shifts constantly --- yet ultimately, if I could just push a button and wipe the whole Russian nation off the world history, I would do it without hesitation.
Germany was phenomenally stupid to denuke. I'm in awe of delusion and incompetence at that level. Do Germans really think you can't hug your children with "nuclear arms"? Did they even try?
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 02:39:47 PM
Germany was phenomenally stupid to denuke. I'm in awe of delusion and incompetence at that level.
Agred 500%.
Putin just hit an oil depot near Kyiv during a missile attack. Environmental disaster! Florestan, get some oxy-tanks - depending on which way the smoke blows ...
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/12/03/23B209AB00000578-2858807-Peeing_on_Putin_Stickers_posted_on_urinals_use_an_expletive_to_d-a-5_1417623588356.jpg)
Quote from: Scion7 on February 26, 2022, 02:54:41 PM
Putin just hit an oil depot near Kyiv during a missile attack. Environmental disaster! Florestan, get some oxy-tanks - depending on which way the smoke blows ...
Do you have three independent sources for this?
Quote from: Todd on February 26, 2022, 02:09:59 PMI guess which banks, and when, and so on will be kind of important. This may be the tactic that forces Putin's hand.
Maybe not. Germany has clarified that this only applies to banks that were already sanctioned; this does not include the ones used by, er, energy companies.
That said, it does include the Central Bank of Russia and VTB, which, once the sanctions are implemented, would cut off ~US$600 billion in Russian strategic financial reserves.
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 02:55:59 PM
Do you have three independent sources for this?
Now, would I lie to you?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300527225/live-oil-depot-fire-lights-up-sky-in-kyiv-air-raid-sirens-sound-in-ukraine-capital
Also, all the major networks are reporting this and showing the glow on the horizon.
Ukraine has confirmed the hit.
Quote from: amw on February 26, 2022, 03:07:40 PM
Germany has clarified that
Germany has put herself completely at the mercy of Russia. I'd rather trust Macron than Scholz.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 26, 2022, 03:15:03 PM
Now, would I lie to you?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300527225/live-oil-depot-fire-lights-up-sky-in-kyiv-air-raid-sirens-sound-in-ukraine-capital
Also, all the major networks are reporting this and showing the glow on the horizon.
Ukraine has confirmed the hit.
All the more reason for this:
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 02:38:52 PM
if I could just push a button and wipe the whole Russian nation off the world history, I would do it without hesitation.
Florestan - we all are mad at Putin and his regime,
but Russia is full of good people who hate all this,
but they are powerless to stop it. Let's not wish for a genocide -
just a homicide (or two) - Putin and the next in line - maybe a renegade Russian marshall or guard will fall on their sword and take them out ...
Quote from: Scion7 on February 26, 2022, 03:23:13 PM
Florestan - we all are mad at Putin and his regime,
but Russia is full of good people who hate all this,
but they are powerless to stop it.
Well, I said as much myself.
QuoteLet's not wish for a genocide -
Of course I don't wish a genocide.
Please do not take a gut reaction --- and a fluctuating one for that matter --- as my final stand.
Quotejust a homicide (or two) - Putin and the next in line - maybe a renegade Russian marshall or guard will fall on their sword and take them out ...
Amen!
Quote from: amw on February 26, 2022, 03:07:40 PM
Maybe not. Germany has clarified that this only applies to banks that were already sanctioned; this does not include the ones used by, er, energy companies.
Maybe next time.
Quote from: amw on February 26, 2022, 03:07:40 PMThat said, it does include the Central Bank of Russia and VTB, which, once the sanctions are implemented, would cut off ~US$600 billion in Russian strategic financial reserves.
That will hurt. I wonder if any other nation might be willing to temporarily step in and offer support in renminbi.
btw, the Russian blocking of Facebook is taking a toll - my contacts in Samara and Irkutsk can only see text from me now, no images - I can, however, still see their images via Messenger ...
my lady in Samara is saying Monday the RF will shut down internet access internally - that would be a pretty disruptive move, and I doubt it happens - many people in Russia are huddling in groups in apartments trying to find out what's going on - they are worried
Something is on fire near Kyiv
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 02:55:59 PM
Do you have three independent sources for this?
I think it's a fuel storage facility at an airport near the city. The Russians have been trying to take it for the last couple of days so they could bring in reinforcements.
That may be one factor to explain the stalled offensive. Another is the failure to attain air supremacy. Uke air defenses are performing better than most expected.
How long before the Russians run out of gas? I trust they don't want to walk home. That could be irksome.
Lil' Kim launched a missile. Maybe he'll help.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 26, 2022, 04:04:34 PM
btw, the Russian blocking of Facebook is taking a toll - my contacts in Samara and Irkutsk can only see text from me now, no images - I can, however, still see their images via Messenger ...
my lady in Samara is saying Monday the RF will shut down internet access internally - that would be a pretty disruptive move, and I doubt it happens - many people in Russia are huddling in groups in apartments trying to find out what's going on - they are worried
Quote from: drogulus on February 26, 2022, 04:11:55 PM
Something is on fire near Kyiv
I think it's a fuel storage facility at an airport near the city. The Russians have been trying to take it for the last couple of days so they could bring in reinforcements.
That may be one factor to explain the stalled offensive. Another is the failure to attain air supremacy. Uke air defenses are performing better than most expected.
How long before the Russians run out of gas? I trust they don't want to walk home. That could be irksome.
I think the whole thing might explode in Putin's face. God Help!
President Zelensky is a hero. He realy is. Bravo!
Bloody hell, that oil depot fire is a bitch!
That will poison both sides.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtTdtkw34OU
Quote from: Florestan on February 26, 2022, 04:20:08 PM
President Zelensky is a hero. He really is. Bravo!
Agreed.
When he took office, many (including me, though I admittedly didn't read much on the matter) didn't take him seriously due to his comedian/actor background. I was mistaken.
The Klitschko brothers of boxing fame (Vitali is mayor of Kyiv) are also impressive.
Quote from: T. D. on February 26, 2022, 04:33:04 PM
Agreed.
When he took office, many (including me, though I admittedly didn't read much on the matter) didn't take him seriously due to his comedian/actor background. I was mistaken.
The Klitschko brothers of boxing fame (Vitali is mayor of Kyiv) are also impressive.
Yes.
May God grant that Ukraine be Putin's Afghanistan and undoing.
The Russian YT propaganda is hilariously bad. The Uke government is insinuating that a bit of sabotage might be going on. I file this under "too good to be true".
Anyway, what's Putin's Plan B? Is it barrel bomb time?
Putin defrosted Medvedev to issue threats.
Two related things Ukraine is said to be doing:
--it's allowing POWs to telephone their families back home in Russia
--it's set up a hotline for Russian families to call if they're trying to get information about soldiers in the invasion force.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 26, 2022, 05:22:24 AM
Good to hear that; thank you for sharing that news.
I heard yesterday(?) that there were a number of Polish people who were providing food and water to Ukrainians crossing the border and also opening up their homes to women and children.
PD
Being of Polish descent myself, it warms my heart to hear this...
Smart strategy/politics. This makes the Russian war policy look stupid and ridiculous.
BBC News: Ukraine's hotline for Russian military families flooded with calls.
Earlier we reported that Ukraine had set up a hotline for the family members of Russian soldiers.
The Kyiv Independent now reports the hotline has received "hundreds of calls" already.
The service is called "Come back alive from Ukraine" and was launched on Saturday by Ukraine's Defence Ministry.
"On this phone line, you can find out whether your relatives are still alive, taken prisoner, injured, and you can decide when and how to take the body of your deceased relative," an official said.
The hotline is a direct appeal to Russians, thousands of whom have been protesting against President Putin's war in Ukraine despite being faced with arrest.
Russians and Ukrainians have described each other as "like brothers and sisters" at anti-war protests around the world in recent days.
I'm starting to wonder if I was too quick to make fun of the Munich references. Putin can use the same justifications in Latvia and Lithuania? And what if China gets ideas as well. The problem is, no one in western countries wants their kids fighting a war in Eastern Europe.
no one "wants" their kids fighting anywhere ... but, right or wrong, at THIS point in time, Ukraine is not a vital national interest of the West - economically they are a burden (currently) and militarily they were not ready for NATO - still too many leftovers from the USSR ...
but, if the nuclear threat was not there, my money would be SACEUR would order mobilization and pound on Putin's forces until they were dust in Ukraine ....
Quote from: Scion7 on February 26, 2022, 10:36:54 PM
no one "wants" their kids fighting anywhere ... (...)
In a couple of videos with captured Russian soldiers, two of the three were very far from having the allegedly 'reconnaissance elite soldier group'-appearance.
They seemed poorly educated, rural-appearing, hillbilly-like, probably around 18-22 years old. The third one was older and appeared more educated. A good deal of them come from remote Eastern regions, Siberia etc.
But I am abstaining from any news most of today; have been to Ukraine three times. During the Crimea invasion, Putin threatened Merkel in a phone call, that he could be in Kyiv with his troops in 4-5 days, and it still seems to go his way.
Now Putin's plan of a quick victory and installing a puppet regime is failing, what is he going to do?
Even if Russian troops take Kyiv today or tomorrow, what is Putin's new exit strategy? ::)
I think his bet is on the negations he has been offering to Zelensky: "negotiate" crippling concessions from Ukraine concerning its political future, military capabilities and territory, and then leave...
The counterstrategy from Zelensky should of course be: now Putin has bitten off more than he can chew, he'd better choke on it...
(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/02/25/us/ukraine-maps-promo-1645801007862/ukraine-maps-promo-1645801007862-videoSixteenByNineJumbo1600-v17.png)
Some Russian advances in the south and east.
Putin could have just engineered the beginning of his own fall, I hope!
I am wearing Ukrainian colors these days. It is not just for Ukraine but all who wishes to life free from tyranny.
Quote from: springrite on February 27, 2022, 01:16:08 AM
Putin could have just engineered the beginning of his own fall, I hope!
This might be the case and his fall might pull down Russia further, which has been an dying empire for a long time anyway.
I think a lot depends on whether the Russian economy can stay afloat or will crash.
QuoteI am wearing Ukrainian colors these days. It is not just for Ukraine but all who wishes to life free from tyranny.
From a global perspective, we are not out of the woods yet....on the contrary.
(//)
Ukrainian government official has reported evidence that Belarus will be joining the invasion. Only one source, l saw it at The Guardian website. I hope he's wrong...
We tend to be interested in music here, but in an interesting sporting side note, Russia is supposed to be playing football World Cup qualifying matches in late March.
Earlier in the week Poland (their first opponents) and Sweden and the Czech Republic (potential next opponents) all said they would refuse to play in Russia. Now all three countries have said they would refuse to play Russia at all, anywhere.
No word as yet on FIFA's response. The 2018 World Cup was held in Russia, very much influenced by FIFA's desire to tap into a large potential market. But when 3 of the 4 teams vying for a qualifying spot refuse to play the 4th team... this is going to be messy and FIFA's typical desire to be above politics isn't going to work.
Quote from: LKB on February 27, 2022, 04:22:57 AM
Ukrainian government official has reported evidence that Belarus will be joining the invasion. Only one source, l saw it at The Guardian website. I hope he's wrong...
Given that Belarus happily allowed Russian troops to mass on their territory, it would hardly be surprising. Belarus is exactly the kind of vassal state that Russia wants Ukraine to be.
Quote from: Madiel on February 27, 2022, 04:24:49 AM
Given that Belarus happily allowed Russian troops to mass on their territory, it would hardly be surprising. Belarus is exactly the kind of vassal state that Russia wants Ukraine to be.
Quite so. But then, Belarus is not Russia and while they could certainly provide medical and logistical support, l doubt they'd be particularly effective in combat. But, we'll see.
Quote from: LKB on February 27, 2022, 04:22:57 AM
Ukrainian government official has reported evidence that Belarus will be joining the invasion. Only one source, l saw it at The Guardian website. I hope he's wrong...
Does this mean that the reserves in Russian forces available for the assault on Kyiv have been depleted?
Various sources said yesterday that Lukashenko will wait with the alliance proclamation for a bit more than 2 days, because there's an important fake 'vote' taking place in Belarus at first, related to its constitution. But there are reports that they might already be invading (seen at a Ukrainian acquaintance's FB page).
Also:
664 leading Russian personalities, many from the cultural sector, have signed a protest open letter, against the invasion in Le Monde. By the time of publishing, there was just a pay-wall access to Le Monde as the single source, but maybe summaries can be found now in other news sources as well.
https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1497282207915909127
Quote from: Scion7 on February 26, 2022, 10:36:54 PM
but, if the nuclear threat was not there, my money would be SACEUR would order mobilization and pound on Putin's forces until they were dust in Ukraine ....
Which is precisely why the nuclear deterrence force is in place. It has now been placed on high alert per all the regular news outlets. And the sentiment implicit in what you wrote is precisely why the Russians will continuously interfere in Ukraine.
It looks like Putin may have gone too big this time, so there is that.
Well maybe this is small beer, but Poetin has declared that his nuclear missiles are made ready, targeting Europe and the USA. Will someone be sensible enough to kill this piece of utter shit.
Quote from: "Harry" on February 27, 2022, 06:02:32 AM
Well maybe this is small beer, but Poetin has declared that his nuclear missiles are made ready, targeting Europe and the USA. Will someone be sensible enough to kill this piece of utter shit.
All tyrants, dictators, and authoritarian rulers have one thing in common: the desire to die in their sleep of old age.
Therefore, absent insanity there is absolutely no chance that Putin would employ nukes in any capacity. He will threaten, bluff, possibly initiate some sort of testing and/ or show of force, but an actual attack with thermonuclear weapons would be his death, and he knows it.
Hopefully, someone will assassinate Putin. Obviously, it'd have to be an inside job, but I honestly don't think anyone within Russia has the gall or intestinal fortitude to actually do it. He has a large number of people around him all the time, which shows how much of a coward he is and knows that the minute "the guard is down" so to speak, he's an open target.
An article l read on Friday stated that 30% of authoritarian rulers are removed from power by their own inner circles.
If that's accurate, then there may well be someone with enough motivation and clout to make something happen, if he can get the needed backing. Perhaps someone in the Russian mafia who is tired of being sanctioned, for instance.
But my money is on a secret agreement with Ukraine.
It still fascinates me that Putin might have made a historic misstep by invading a country led by a guy who has won the Ukrainian version of Dancing with the stars back in 2006 (https://twitter.com/abughazalehkat/status/1497768813860896770). What a time to be alive.
Also, immense props to the people protesting the war in Russia. I've just read an open letter signed by approx. fifty Russian classical musicians that's circulating on social media. Hopefully a sign of things to come.
Quote from: Rinaldo on February 27, 2022, 07:57:23 AM
immense props to the people protesting the war in Russia. I've just read an open letter signed by approx. fifty Russian classical musicians that's circulating on social media. Hopefully a sign of things to come.
Treportedly 4,000 Russians have been arrested since the protests began.
The danger, though, is that if Putin will face a real danger of being ousted, he might act even more irrationally than he does now.
I agree with MI and LKB, assassination is the best option.
"Gentlemen ... it's obvious that our various intelligence services cannot effect a regime-change in the Russian Federation - our agents would be detected long before they could reach the hoops of steel surrounding Putin's immediate presence. However, our team leaders have come to the conclusion that a secret operative - a civilian - just might not be noticed until he was within the radius of a personal HEV with the Russian president ... we think we have identified such a person ... one rage-infected Romanian with just enough bravura to ignore the possibility of 30-rounds/sec Russian Bizon submachine guns ... "
Quote from: LKB on February 27, 2022, 06:43:03 AM
All tyrants, dictators, and authoritarian rulers have one thing in common: the desire to die in their sleep of old age.
Therefore, absent insanity there is absolutely no chance that Putin would employ nukes in any capacity. He will threaten, bluff, possibly initiate some sort of testing and/ or show of force, but an actual attack with thermonuclear weapons would be his death, and he knows it.
He's always gotten his way through bullying. No wonder the Wankmaggot Dotard fawns on him.
Demonstration with 10,000 here in DK, according to the police, in the afternoon. I read a bit of further news: DK delivering 2700 anti-tank weapons and also Stinger to Ukraine, plus increasing defense budgets. Lots of similar news, including the 100 billion Euros rise of the German defense budget, Sweden donating 5000 anti-tank weapons etc.
Increased opposition in public from some Russian oligarks, even mentioning of Boris Nemtsov's views etc.
Apparently oncoming Russian-Ukranian talks at the Belarus border, hopefully without accompanying incidents.
Swift sanctions announced, which may result in a quick collapse.
And of course, the nuclear threats from Russia. Marco Rubio, the US politician with a dubious reputation, who has access to some security briefings, stated in a tweet a couple of days ago, that Putin is considered mentally different from 5 years ago, but that it was not possible for him to say more about this.
My impression is that Western intelligence has been good all the way, which is not a bad thing. It may also have helped Ukraine to a very considerable degree, and still is.
I think that the best hope is for increasing opposition towards Putin from within Russia itself - maybe wishful thinking but I hope not.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 27, 2022, 08:53:12 AM
"Gentlemen ... it's obvious that our various intelligence services cannot effect a regime-change in the Russian Federation - our agents would be detected long before they could reach the hoops of steel surrounding Putin's immediate presence. However, our team leaders have come to the conclusion that a secret operative - a civilian - just might not be noticed until he was within the radius of a personal HEV with the Russian president ... we think we have identified such a person ... one rage-infected Romanian with just enough bravura to ignore the possibility of 30-rounds/sec Russian Bizon submachine guns ... "
:D :D :D
And another Putin lackey chimes in:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/hungary-won-t-cancel-russia-backed-nuclear-project-orban-says
Also, I've read some theorising to the effect that Putin is hoping for a military coup or putsch in Ukraine. Seems unlikely to this (ignorant) observer, but it's possible that Russia has previously seeded the Ukraine military with abundant moles, sleeper agents, etc.
^ the West continues to purchase Russian petrol products - are we "lackeys"?
Quote from: Scion7 on February 27, 2022, 08:53:12 AM
"Gentlemen ... it's obvious that our various intelligence services cannot effect a regime-change in the Russian Federation - our agents would be detected long before they could reach the hoops of steel surrounding Putin's immediate presence. However, our team leaders have come to the conclusion that a secret operative - a civilian - just might not be noticed until he was within the radius of a personal HEV with the Russian president ... we think we have identified such a person ... one rage-infected Romanian with just enough bravura to ignore the possibility of 30-rounds/sec Russian Bizon submachine guns ... "
Through out the Imperial/Soviet/Republican history, the country never had a genuine democratic system.
P.s. Anonymous, international hacker group, declared war against the Russian govt.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article258820668.html
According to various government sources, Ukrainian and Russian delegations have agreed to meet for peace talks at an unspecified place on the Ukraine/Belarus border. These are expected to start at some point today and perhaps have accounted for the lack of any major military developments over the past 12 hours ish. It helps that the majority of Russian and Ukrainian rank and file soldiers are pretty unwilling to kill one another for various reasons (long historical ties between the two peoples; mostly speaking the same language; most soldiers are young conscripts with no historical memory of Soviet- and pre-Soviet era grievances or even the 2004 coup).
Western powers delivering weapons to Ukraine while trying to discourage peace talks is an unambiguously bad thing: it's a sign that the various EU parties want the war to continue indefinitely until such point as they can find some strategic advantage. Every delivery of missiles and guns to Ukraine (and largely to militia groups rather than the government) will have no effect except to push Russia to switch from its current relatively limited war to the full spectrum asymmetric counterinsurgency tactics that form the cornerstone of modern warfare: advanced weaponry (drone strikes, loitering munitions, etc), massive urban bombardment, destruction rather than capture of infrastructure, and stuff like chemical weapons and cluster bombs whenever it feels it can get away with it. Like, as bad as the situation has been so far, right now it's one where Russia is driving T-72s down highways and bypassing cities in favour of capturing airfields and power plants. Ukraine similarly has a lot of advanced weaponry—its military does not need donated Stingers; it has plenty—and has largely avoided using it. Every delivery of weapons by the West makes peace less likely, and should be condemned.
The best hope for peace is a revolt within the Russian military itself, for soldiers to start deserting or refuse to fight. (A military coup is after all the only likely way to remove Putin from power.) Ukraine has to some extent already been able to take advantage of this by allowing captured prisoners to call home and setting up a hotline. Those are the sort of tactics that will "win" this war. The West by contrast evidently wants to turn Ukraine into Syria.
Analysis by the Institute for the Study of War:
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 26
Russian forces' main axes of advance in the last 24 hours focused on Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, and southern Ukraine. Russian airborne and special forces troops are engaged in urban warfare in northwestern Kyiv, but Russian mechanized forces are not yet in the capital. Russian forces from Crimea have changed their primary axes of advance from a presumed drive toward Odesa to focus on pushing north toward Zaporizhie and the southeastern bend of the Dnipro River and east along the Azov Sea coast toward Mariupol. These advances risk cutting off the large concentrations of Ukrainian forces still defending the former line of contact between unoccupied Ukraine and occupied Donbas. Ukrainian leaders may soon face the painful decision of ordering the withdrawal of those forces and the ceding of more of eastern Ukraine or allowing much of Ukraine's uncommitted conventional combat power to be encircled and destroyed. There are no indications as yet of whether the Ukrainian government is considering this decision point.
Ukrainian resistance remains remarkably effective and Russian operations especially on the Kyiv axis have been poorly coordinated and executed, leading to significant Russian failures on that axis and at Kharkiv. Russian forces remain much larger and more capable than Ukraine's conventional military, however, and Russian advances in southern Ukraine may threaten to unhinge the defense of Kyiv and northeastern Ukraine if they continue unchecked.
https://www.understandingwar.org/
Never forget that as president Donald Trump led an organized campaign to withhold military aid and blackmail the Ukrainians. And that "Republicans let him get away it."
Shame On Those Who Defended Trump's "Perfect Call" (https://www.thebulwark.com/shame-on-those-who-defended-trumps-perfect-call/)
Quote from: amw on February 27, 2022, 09:28:48 AMEvery delivery of weapons by the West makes peace less likely, and should be condemned.
No, the West is good. Besides, some of those orders may well flow to US arms manufacturers. Q1 ends in just over thirty days.
Some interesting analysis / speculation. Including Russian hopes for a putsch and guesses about what a carved-up Ukraine would look like:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/putin-races-against-clock-as-fast-military-advance-frustrated
Though of course much may prove inaccurate or even BS.
The art of the well-timed exit: BP exiting its 19.75% shareholding in Russian oil giant Rosneft (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/27/bp-exiting-its-1975-shareholding-in-russian-oil-giant-rosneft)
I wonder what Rosneft chairman Gerhard Schröder is thinking right about now.
I for one wouldn't be surprised if someone from the inner circle, so to speak, act to remove or kill him. The opposition inside Russia is very strong, and the sanctions will be hitting everyone hard, but especially those on the inner circle and the rest of the rich and powerful inside Russia.
EU proposing air bridge to Kyiv, if necessary. Implies more risks of confrontation.
The announcement of Kyiv 'being surrounded' has been retracted.
Putin's talk of a-bombs is considered relevant especially for using somewhat smaller nuclear bombs, possibly Hiroshima size. Western governments are requested to work out a range of response strategies by experts here.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 27, 2022, 11:11:14 AM
Putin's talk of a-bombs is considered relevant especially for using somewhat smaller nuclear bombs, possibly Hiroshima size. Western governments are requested to work out a range of response strategies by experts here.
Yeah, Huggy-Bear is right: "Pooty-Poot" is solely a European problem.
Quote from: Todd on February 27, 2022, 10:22:34 AM
No, the West is good. Besides, some of those orders may well flow to US arms manufacturers. Q1 ends in just over thirty days.
You're implying the US and EU would carry out an unnecessary proxy war that devastates a country of 40 million people, solely for their own economic and political gain? Unbelievable. Surely that has never happened before.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 27, 2022, 11:11:14 AM
The announcement of Kyiv 'being surrounded' has been retracted.
The situation in Kiev has not really changed since the initial advances—while there's plenty of direct evidence from locals of Russian armour columns outside the city to the west and north, they haven't attacked the city directly. Ukrainian forces still control the southern approach to the city and possibly the eastern approaches as well. (And the main westwards highway towards Poland is obviously still unobstructed, except by traffic.) Locals claim most of the street fighting in the capital is between rival militias and gangs, some of whom are taking advantage of the authorities' distribution of small arms and other weapons among the population. Russian special forces/paratroopers (VDV) are likely to be present as well.
Indeed there's a pretty significant split on both sides between the armed forces (conscripts, generally reluctant to fight or die, have fought extremely conservatively, treat captured prisoners humanely, maintain high civilian support) and the various militias, some of which are incorporated into the Ukrainian National Guard and others into the DPR/LPR armed forces (volunteers, blood-and-soil nationalists of various stripes, attacking civilian areas, atrocities reported). For example, locals on social media in Mariupol, the city where the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion has the largest presence, have made various claims of the defending forces using civilians as human shields, stopping cars at checkpoints and beating or executing Russian-speakers (note that the majority of the Ukrainian population still speaks Russian as a first language), etc. These claims cannot be verified, but they're circulating widely and civilian morale in the area appears low as a result. (This is also unlikely to be a Russian propaganda operation: the city came under sustained attack and was occupied for several months in 2014 and, as a result, remains a strongly anti-Russian area.)
Apart from that... people in eastern Ukraine are pretty used to war (lots of social media videos showing people filling up on petrol from abandoned military vehicles, carefully moving unexploded ordnance out of the way so they can drive to work, and chatting with troops in a friendly manner, regardless of which side they're on, etc), and in the rest of the country life is apparently continuing mostly as normal except with distant sounds of bombs and artillery fire. That "normality" is what is going to be shattered as soon as paramilitary groups start getting their hands on Western-supplied weapons. I don't think either Putin or Zelensky wants to see Kiev turned into Aleppo—Putin wants an intact capital city for a friendly puppet regime, and Zelensky wants an intact country to rule over. But Biden, Scholz, Macron, Johnson, etc, certainly seem to want that.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 27, 2022, 08:53:16 AM
He's always gotten his way through bullying. No wonder the Wankmaggot Dotard fawns on him.
His embarrassing display in Helsinki notwithstanding, I don't think said dotard fawns on Putin these days so much as imagines himself, in his hubris, to be Putin's equal and someone uniquely endowed with the capacity to have deterred him from ever invading Ukraine. With that one, it is always about how "only I can fix it", the fellow in power now is just too stupid and incompetent.
Videos from a Chinese businessman in Kiev shows shelling falling at or near the residential compound his family is living in about every 3 or 4 minutes, launched from about a mile or two away. Yes, the Russian troops are just outside the outskirt of town and making its presence known.
They are on the eastern edge of the city.
I still think an internal solution (removing Putin) is still quite possible. On the one hand, yes, Putin has the tight security around him. But on the other hand, he has that level of security because he is Weary of the threat, and that threat is increasing.
We need a Russian Stauffenberg! (...and a more successful one...)
EU builds up its military dimension & assistance. Borell says it will provide fighter jets to Ukraine. Obviously a further escalation.
There must be some education problems, but maybe Polish ones then ...
It's generally questionable, whether all these weapons will actually reach Ukraine in time for using them. It's being said officially that they will be delivered through the small Polish border area. Such openness on the matter seems naive, unless it's decoy. But they are also meant to strengthen Ukraine in negotiations, as a contrast to an immediate, practically complete capitulation to Putin, I think.
It's like something out of The Death Of Stalin. You almost expect to see Buscemi sitting at the table with a panicked look.
https://www.youtube.com/v/o9A-u8EoWcI&t
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 27, 2022, 11:40:52 AM
Yeah, Huggy-Bear is right: "Pooty-Poot" is solely a European problem.
No, the real problem is the defenders are armed. Isn't that kind of a war crime?
Quote from: amw on February 27, 2022, 11:43:21 AMI don't think either Putin or Zelensky wants to see Kiev turned into Aleppo—Putin wants an intact capital city for a friendly puppet regime, and Zelensky wants an intact country to rule over.
Well, those two objectives aren't very compatible, are they? Nobody's discouraging peace talks – we just smell Putin's blood in the water. Everyone expected Russia to steamroll into Kyiv... Look what a few days did to unite the EU, change the mind of Sweden, Germany (Scholz's speech (https://www.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-spending/a-60933724) is a game changer) and even Switzerland and spark different forms of dissent in Russia. The longer Ukraine resists, the higher the chance Putin's reign is gonna crumble. That's what the western weapons & ammo are for.
Anyway, here's Igor Levit in Brussels on Sunday (https://twitter.com/melissakchan/status/1498017275554770950). A beautiful little moment.
Quote from: drogulus on February 27, 2022, 03:04:34 PM
No, the real problem is the defenders are armed. Isn't that kind of a war crime?
It's not as if they had a "stand your ground" law!
Quote from: Rinaldo on February 27, 2022, 03:37:11 PMwe just smell Putin's blood in the water.
What does this even mean? From a geostrategic standpoint, what potential Russian leader would be willing to let Ukraine be allowed into NATO, or something functionally similar? Ukraine is about more than Putin.
More wishful thinking: Effort under way to challenge Russia's right to seat on UN security council (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/putin-facing-efforts-isolate-diplomatically-ukraine)
Quote from: Todd on February 27, 2022, 03:51:06 PM
What does this even mean? From a geostrategic standpoint, what potential Russian leader would be willing to let Ukraine be allowed into NATO, or something functionally similar? Ukraine is about more than Putin.
Is it about more for Europe as well? Can Putin use his justifications in Lithuania and Latvia too? Or is that bluster?
Quote from: Todd on February 27, 2022, 03:51:06 PM
What does this even mean? From a geostrategic standpoint, what potential Russian leader would be willing to let Ukraine be allowed into NATO, or something functionally similar? Ukraine is about more than Putin.
More wishful thinking: Effort under way to challenge Russia's right to seat on UN security council (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/putin-facing-efforts-isolate-diplomatically-ukraine)
First point is generally correct but irrelevant atm.
Second point is correct. If Russia were to be removed it would establish precedent for any of the other permanent members to be removed, which those members will never allow.
Quote from: Todd on February 27, 2022, 03:51:06 PM
What does this even mean? From a geostrategic standpoint, what potential Russian leader would be willing to let Ukraine be allowed into NATO, or something functionally similar? Ukraine is about more than Putin.
A Russian leader who's not trying to get a do-over of the Cold War
Quote from: LKB on February 27, 2022, 07:15:46 AM
An article l read on Friday stated that 30% of authoritarian rulers are removed from power by their own inner circles.
Interesting, seems natural.
There was something I heard before about monkeys, I think it was from Jordan Peterson, mentioning how overly aggressive monkeys who become dominant in their group often don't stay in power before too long before they are taken down by the other monkeys.
Seems to be the price for using raw aggression without regards to others to obtain a position, always having to watch your back. Being quiet and carrying a big stick seems to be the better long-term option.
The UN security council challenge is obviously symbolical, everybody knows it. A way of creating media attention, and further questioning Russia's positions.
The Ukraine situation is "fueling speculation about whether Beijing might replicate Moscow's moves and seek to seize Taiwan by force. Such superficial analysis should not induce public anxiety in Taiwan or command the attention of Taiwan's leaders...
"Such analogies are unwarranted by observable realities. Ukraine, with its land border with Russia and Belarus, is more vulnerable to Russian ground forces than Taiwan with its 100-mile moat is to the People's Liberation Army. Taiwan is America's ninth-largest trading partner, above India and France. Ukraine ranks 67th. Taiwan occupies a central place in global value chains. Ukraine's GDP per capita ranks 135th in the world per the International Monetary Fund. Taiwan serves as a powerful example of a prosperous liberal democracy. Ukraine sits at 122 out of 180 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index...
"This distinction is understood at the highest levels of the Biden administration. In a recent interview, national security adviser Jake Sullivan explained, "The Taiwan Relations Act is a unique instrument — we don't have it with other countries; we don't have it with Ukraine — that does talk about American commitments to support Taiwan in various ways."...
"The Biden administration already has ruled out U.S. military intervention in Ukraine. Part of their justification for doing so is to keep focus on threats in the Indo-Pacific. Within the Indo-Pacific, there is no security issue in Washington that commands greater attention than Taiwan.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/22/learning-the-right-lessons-from-ukraine-for-taiwan/
Quote from: Que on February 27, 2022, 12:53:01 AM
Now Putin's plan of a quick victory and installing a puppet regime is failing, what is he going to do?
Kill more people.
Here come the White Russians ... anyone who believed anything Lukashenko said for one second was quite mad.
He's had Putin buggering him for years now.
The Russian forces in Belarus are not going anywhere - when this Ukraine fiasco is finally over (assuming Putin survives), Belarus will be annexed. Another 'check-mark' for the restoration of the USSR.
The Independent
Belarus could send troops into Ukraine to support Russian invasion on Monday, US official says
The Washington Post
Latest Russia-Ukraine war news: Belarus to join invasion ahead of Russia-Ukraine talks
Quote from: Herman on February 27, 2022, 11:08:30 PM
Kill more people.
Unfortunately he probably will, but strategically it will be a dead end.
His army will suffer more losses and won't be able to occupy Ukraine long term. For ordinary Russians the mass killing of a "brother people" in what according to Putin is a part of Russia, will be a severe shock.
Que, that depends on how strong-armed Putin is turning. Will he turn the RF into a true, Stalinist police state?
Stalin had 1/3 of the Ukrainians starved to death ... the Great Russian nation may have been "shocked," but fear of being killed or your family killed in front of you is a douse of cold water on the fire of revolt.
Quote from: Que on February 27, 2022, 11:29:23 PM
His army will suffer more losses and won't be able to occupy Ukraine long term. For ordinary Russians the mass killing of a "brother people" in what according to Putin is a part of Russia, will be a severe shock.
Putin c.s. control the domestic media, so in his mind no one in Russia knows how things are going down in Ukraine.
That's why it's smart to have captured or injured Russian soldiers calling their moms - even though it's pretty iffy ethically.
However I'm reading stuff about Russia moving in really heavy artillery now near Kyev, think thermobaric and, eventually nuclear, and he's probably going to destroy the entire city if that's what it takes. Not just the ugly Soviet style apartment buildings and offices, but also the historic city that was there before Moscow even existed.
Quote from: Todd on February 27, 2022, 03:51:06 PMWhat does this even mean?
In all his gambles (2nd Chechen war, Crimea, targeted assassinations) Putin seemed immune to any serious consquences. Now he's finally stepped into a blunder that might turn his own against him. The European hunger to see him fall is stronger than what it might look from across the ocean.
QuoteUkraine is about more than Putin.
True.
Quote from: "Harry" on February 27, 2022, 06:02:32 AM
Well maybe this is small beer, but Poetin has declared that his nuclear missiles are made ready, targeting Europe and the USA. Will someone be sensible enough to kill this piece of utter shit.
you need to say 'please' first.
Quote from: Herman on February 28, 2022, 12:01:00 AM
eventually nuclear, ...
No need to worry about that.
It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, mainly the Russian regime's desire to keep on living.
But beyond that, the Strategic Rocket Forces of the RF are extremely professional, and an erratic order such as that would cause the marshals to make a change immediately.
Van der Leyden is proposing to add Ukraine into the EU, not NATO mind. That opens all kind if scenarios I guess.
Quote from: amw on February 27, 2022, 11:43:21 AM
the majority of the Ukrainian population still speaks Russian as a first language
False. According to the last census (2001) Ukrainian is the native language of 67.53% of the population while Russian accounts for only 29.59 %, ie less than a half.
QuoteI don't think either Putin or Zelensky wants to see Kiev turned into Aleppo—Putin wants an intact capital city for a friendly puppet regime, and Zelensky wants an intact country to rule over. But Biden, Scholz, Macron, Johnson, etc, certainly seem to want that.
I see. Putin invades a sovereign and independent country without the slightest valid casus belli, the Russian Army bombs and rockets residential areas, killing and maiming civilians and causing a massive wave of refugees in the neighboring countries, yet the war criminals are the Western leaders.
What a stinking load of bullshit.
According to a recent gallup the amount of Finns who think Finland should join NATO has risen from about 30 % to 53 %.
Quote from: JBS on February 27, 2022, 06:44:58 PM
A Russian leader who's not trying to get a do-over of the Cold War
That's not what Putin is doing.
Quote from: Rinaldo on February 28, 2022, 12:03:00 AMThe European hunger to see him fall is stonger than what it might look from across the ocean.
That does not appear to be the case. In some nations, perhaps.
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 03:49:16 AMPutin invades a sovereign and independent country without the slightest valid casus belli
Valid casus belli seem pretty rare.
Quote from: Todd on February 28, 2022, 05:02:14 AM
That does not appear to be the case. In some nations, perhaps.
? What country in Europe not occupied by Russia is "supporting" Putin???
The hatred is widespread and deep at this point.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 28, 2022, 05:41:02 AM
? What country in Europe not occupied by Russia is "supporting" Putin???
The hatred is widespread and deep at this point.
No "non-occupied" country appears to be supporting him, but that is rather different than wanting to see Putin fall. Granted, I must rely on skewed news sources, both American and European, but the relationship between Russia and various European nations seems more complicated than presented on GMG. For instance, were Putin forced from power somehow - and I am not sure of the mechanisms available to do that, though murder has been floated on this forum multiple times now - what guarantees are there that whoever comes next will be better/nicer/more pliable, etc? Most of what I have read indicates that European leaders claim to want the war to end and a status quo ante established, after which some type of negotiations regarding sanctions relief, security, etc, would take place.
The next Russian leader would no doubt be a right-royal bloody bastard, but the whole reason that Putin would have been removed from power in the first place was because the inner circle realized that the war in Ukraine was a huge mistake, and the new bugger would reverse course.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 28, 2022, 05:41:02 AM
? What country in Europe not occupied by Russia is "supporting" Putin???
Serbia.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-moscow-belarus-serbia-europe-731476cc760c95e8e4fb78c8566e72fe (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-moscow-belarus-serbia-europe-731476cc760c95e8e4fb78c8566e72fe)
https://balkaninsight.com/2022/02/25/serbian-pro-regime-media-praise-russia-overrunning-ukraine/ (https://balkaninsight.com/2022/02/25/serbian-pro-regime-media-praise-russia-overrunning-ukraine/)
In light of the Kosovo thing, their position is completely understandable, though.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 28, 2022, 05:54:49 AM
The next Russian leader would no doubt be a right-royal bloody bastard, but the whole reason that Putin would have been removed from power in the first place was because the inner circle realized that the war in Ukraine was a huge mistake, and the new bugger would reverse course.
Which members of the Russian "inner circle" currently wish to pursue the course of action you describe?
LOL, I don't have their personal names.
But the military considers themselves the protectors of the country - whatever politico who began a move to remove Putin will have to have the Marshals on his side. It's been done before.
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 05:56:14 AM
Serbia.
Ah, yes, I'd forgotten about them.
But then again, on my map, Belgrade is part of "Greater Croatia" :P
Quote from: Todd on February 28, 2022, 05:51:45 AM
Most of what I have read indicates that European leaders claim to want the war to end and a status quo ante established, after which some type of negotiations regarding sanctions relief, security, etc, would take place.
Looking at for instance Germany, the expectation or even desire to return to the
status quo ante has been abandoned. And rightly so.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 28, 2022, 06:05:06 AM
Ah, yes, I'd forgotten about them.
But then again, on my map, Belgrade is part of "Greater Croatia" :P
Btw, your map is just as revisionist as Putin's map. If I reported it to the mods, they'd surely ask you to remove it. ;D
Quote from: Scion7 on February 28, 2022, 06:01:30 AM
LOL, I don't have their personal names.
But the military considers themselves the protectors of the country - whatever politico who began a move to remove Putin will have to have the Marshals on his side. It's been done before.
Mark Galeotti, a fairly well-studied observer, considers for example the PM Mishustin, an economist, and the defense minister Shoigu fairly moderate, Shoigu being a possible scheduled succesor for Putin. I've heard Shoigu say some very militant stuff though, but on the other hand he knows about the cost of this invasion, and he looked uncomfortable at the notorious public council meeting. The humiliated security boss was Naryshkin.
Needless to say, there are many other, more obscure names (to the Western public), and it could very likely be one of those in stead, I guess.
Quote from: Que on February 28, 2022, 06:05:53 AM
Looking at for instance Germany, the expectation or even desire to return the the status quo ante has been abandoned. And rightly so.
True. A big-scale shift. I watched a German debate between politicians yesterday evening, on ZDF, and they were without illusions. Except Die Linke party, has some restraint, like always. EDIT: And AfD.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 28, 2022, 06:01:30 AM
But the military considers themselves the protectors of the country - whatever politico who began a move to remove Putin will have to have the Marshals on his side. It's been done before.
Coups have indeed occurred before, but they are not particularly easy to pull off in all situations. I'm not sure what you mean when you reference Marshals, but the obviously non-comprehensive pieces I read in various foreign policy journals (eg, Foreign Affairs) indicate that the military is subordinate to other entities, most notably the security services. Are military leaders in a position to pull off a coup?
Quote from: Que on February 28, 2022, 06:05:53 AM
Looking at for instance Germany, the expectation or even desire to return the the status quo ex ante has been abandoned. And rightly so.
German policy responses appear inconsistent. On the one hand, they talk tough and will engage in (profitable) proxy war, and they will boost their defense spending to meet their NATO obligations. (Well, that's what they
say.) Yet, at least according to US news sources, despite these tough measures and tough talk on diplomacy, the Germans are still open to talks. And, crucially, the SWIFT sanctions are limited.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 28, 2022, 06:14:24 AMNeedless to say, there are many other, more obscure names (to the Western public), and it could very likely be one of those in stead, I guess.
Like who?
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 28, 2022, 06:14:24 AM
Mark Galeotti, a fairly well-studied observer, considers for example the PM Mishustin, an economist, and the defense minister Shoigu fairly moderate, Shoigu being a possible scheduled succesor for Putin. I've heard Shoigu say some very militant stuff though, but on the other hand he knows about the cost of this invasion, and he looked uncomfortable at the notorious public council meeting.
A Romanian commentator stated he was appalled by Shoygu's announcement that he has executed Putin's order to place the nuclear forces in state of alert. Now, what did he expect, Shoygu to announce that he has no effing intention to obey the order?
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 06:18:46 AM
A Romanian commentator stated he was appalled by Shoygu's announcement that he has executed Putin's order to place the nuclear forces in state of alert. Now, what did he expect, Shoygu to announce that he has no effing intention to obey the order?
Apparently, the inner circle are on the cusp of ousting Putin, so a public rebuke of Putin would have been reasonable.
Quote from: Todd on February 28, 2022, 06:18:31 AM
(...)
Like who?
This would probably take days to study ...
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 28, 2022, 06:21:38 AM
This would probably take days to study ...
Days, that's it?
Quote from: Todd on February 28, 2022, 06:20:33 AM
Apparently, the inner circle are on the cusp of ousting Putin
I think it's not impossible that if Putin really ordered a nuclear attack, they might decide he's gone too far. But to expect that such a move be announced publicly is the top of foolishness.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 28, 2022, 06:25:35 AM
I know you are busy.
I was hoping to tap the wisdom of expert Kremlinologists.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 28, 2022, 06:16:51 AM
True. A big-scale shift. I watched a German debate between politicians yesterday evening, and they were without illusions. Except Die Linke party, has some restraint.
I'm going to throw in some predictions:
1. Sweden and Finland will join NATO.
2. The EU will develop a common defence structure. Conveniently, the biggest stumbling block - the UK - has removed itself from the equation.
3. The EU will come down hard on Switzerland as a refuge for dirty money.
4. The Ukraine will eventually join the EU - and NATO.
5. European will downscale its energy dependency of Russia at an accelerated pace. Nuclear energy will back on the map.
6. The involvement of the US with Europe will continue to decline. Instead it will focus its efforts on the Pacific and China's efforts to dominate South East Asia. India might align with the US to stop China.
Quote from: Que on February 28, 2022, 06:31:31 AM
I'm going to throw in some predictions:
1. Sweden and Finland will join NATO.
2. The EU will develop a common defence structure. Conveniently, the biggest stumbling block - the UK - has removed itself from the equation.
3. The EU will come down hard on Switzerland as a refuge for dirty money.
4. The Ukraine will eventually join the EU - and NATO.
5. European will downscale its energy dependency of Rusdia at an accelerated pace. Nuclear energy will back on the map.
6. The involvement of the US with Europe will continue to decline. Instead it will focus its efforts on the Pacific and China's efforts to dominate South East Asia. India might align with the US to stop China.
What is the timeline for these events?
Switzerland will join sanctions, it was just announced. Maybe they sense the pressure. Maybe it's not enough regarding their banks.
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 28, 2022, 06:14:24 AMNeedless to say, there are many other, more obscure names (to the Western public), and it could very likely be one of those in stead, I guess.
We can look at recent Soviet/Russian history. Stalin died of natural causes, those surrounding him were too terrified to be be involved to even remove him from his house to take him to the hospital.
Khruschev was removed by a conspiracy of his subordinates. When he returned from foreign travel he was confronted by Brezhnev and told that it had been decided that he would be replaced. Khruschev spend the rest of his life in a small flat in Moscow with a modest stipend. Khruschev led a miserable life thereafter, but took some pride in moving the country back from the tyranny of Stalin. He was said to have remarked "I have done my work. Can you imagine someone telling Stalin that his services were no longer required. There wouldn't even be a wet spot on the floor."
Shortly before legislation liberalizing the Soviet union was to be voted on Soviet military hardliners took Gorbachev hostage at his dacha and announced that he would be replaced. It didn't stick. Popular support was not with the originators of the putsch, Boris Yeltsin, then Mayer of Moscow, supported Gorbachev (astride a tank shelling the parliament building) and Gorbachev returned a diminished figure. The trend started by Gorbachev continued and the Soviet Union was dissolved. Yeltsin ended up leading the new Russian Federation.
Putin has a different standing. He controls the military, police and sham courts. The Oligarchs kick up a portion of their profits to him and in return he protects them. His popular support comes from his control of information available to ordinary Russians. Not clear what semi-legitimate mechanism of removal is most likely to succeed. If the Oligarchs start losing money they might stop supporting him and look for someone to take his place. Putin could retaliate by having them rounded up an put in jail for "tax evasion," or whatever is convenient. Then he would endanger his own revenue stream. The Military might rebel. High government officials might turn on him. The Duma might vote to reverse the various legislation making him a de-facto Tsar. All of these groups are packed with Putin loyalists, so things would have to be really bad for them to think they could try to replace Putin and survive. If Putin loses popular support it would make whatever semi-legitimate mechanism is employed more likely to succeed.
We have to remember that when Putin took power he was a non-entity that no one had every heard of. He shrewdly build his power base by gaining the support of the oligarchs and manufacturing the second Chechen crisis which led to a Russian military success.
He could be murdered, but I doubt he would make himself vulnerable, and someone worse might come next. It would be nice if his control of popular opinion could be broken and Russia could become a messy, chaotic democracy like Ukraine.
Quote from: Que on February 28, 2022, 06:31:31 AM
1. Sweden and Finland will join NATO.
Ukraine's NATO membership was not even unofficially on the table when Putin invaded them. What do you thnk he'll do when Finland and Sweden officially apply for NATO membership?
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 06:52:53 AM
Ukraine's NATO membership was not even unofficially on the table when Putin invaded them. What do you thnk he'll do when Finland and Sweden officially apply for NATO membership?
That would depend on which NATO members reject the applications, as surely some will.
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 06:14:18 AM
Btw, your map is just as revisionist as Putin's map. If I reported it to the mods, they'd surely ask you to remove it. ;D
Now, old boy, didn't you go to your history classes? ::)
That's from a historical atlas by Rand McNally.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 28, 2022, 07:25:34 AM
Now, old boy, didn't you go to your history classes? ::)
That's from a historical atlas by Rand McNally.
So what? Putin too can find a map of the Russian Empire in a historical atlas by a prestigious publishing house which includes Ukraine, Finland, the Baltic States and half of Poland.
You're right, though, in that not the map itself is revisionist, but its use as an avatar. But don't worry, I'm not going to report it to the moderators. If I had been enraged about it (as I suppose you expected me to be...) I'd have done it long ago. ;)
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 06:26:57 AM
I think it's not impossible that if Putin really ordered a nuclear attack, they might decide he's gone too far.
I wonder what a professional psychologist specialized in body language would make of this.
(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/unionleader.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/62/0629778e-4457-5ceb-ad47-8bc34d30f5e4/621bb826d33e9.image.jpg?resize=750%2C480)
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 07:59:50 AM
I wonder what a professional psychologist specialized in body language would make of this.
(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/unionleader.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/62/0629778e-4457-5ceb-ad47-8bc34d30f5e4/621bb826d33e9.image.jpg?resize=750%2C480)
Is that perhaps some glares from a few of his officers who have either had their funds frozen or perhaps are getting grief from those who are in that position and who have been asking them "Why is this taking so long?" or something like "Why are we doing this?!"
Meant to add that I am delighted to see the latest sanctions and support from the European community. Heartbroken though to hear of over 500,000 refugees and pictures of the destruction in Ukraine and all of horrors of war.
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 28, 2022, 09:33:42 AM
Is that perhaps some glares from a few of his officers who have either had their funds frozen or perhaps are getting grief from those who are in that position and who have been asking them "Why is this taking so long?" or something like "Why are we doing this?!"
Actually, they are the two most important military commanders after Commander-in-Chief Putin. On the right, Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense. On the left, Valery Gerasimnov, Chief of the General Staff. The picture was taken exactly when Putin asked them to place the nuclear missiles in a state of alert.
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 09:44:27 AM
Actually, they are the two most important military commanders after Commander-in-Chief Putin. On the right, Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense. On the left, Valery Gerasimnov, Chief of the General Staff. The picture was taken exactly when Putin asked them to place the nuclear missiles in a state of alert.
Wow! Thanks for providing the back-story for me. I had heard earlier about the nuclear state of alert. Would love to know what was going on in their heads and the conversation that took place!
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on February 28, 2022, 09:54:26 AM
Wow! Thanks for providing the back-story for me. I had heard earlier about the nuclear state of alert. Would love to know what was going on in their heads and the conversation that took place!
What was going on in their heads nobody can know, but what conversation are you talking about? From the video footage it can be seen that Shoigu lowered his head and said "Sir, yes, Sir!" or something like that and that was all. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 07:59:50 AM
I wonder what a professional psychologist specialized in body language would make of this.
(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/unionleader.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/62/0629778e-4457-5ceb-ad47-8bc34d30f5e4/621bb826d33e9.image.jpg?resize=750%2C480)
The full photo is even more interesting, though the facial expressions of the officers are more noticeable in the cropped image.
Putin was seated alone at the head of a 30-foot long table and the military officers were seated along one side at the extreme opposite end.
I'll try to look it up; believe I saw it on the BBC site Sunday.
Full photo:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMngSNMWYAEXqPV?format=jpg&name=large)
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 09:44:27 AM
Actually, they are the two most important military commanders after Commander-in-Chief Putin. On the right, Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense. On the left, Valery Gerasimnov, Chief of the General Staff. The picture was taken exactly when Putin asked them to place the nuclear missiles in a state of alert.
Yes, I remembered wrongly, Shoigu was looking uncomfortable there. He was less easy to read at the big council meeting.
idk if anyone watches bald and bankrupt, but he is known for his travel videos in Eastern Europe (also India, etc.), so he just happened to be in Kyiv at the time.
Documenting his escape, you see more of the crowds and chaos at the end:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzBxFH_hEwA
On football, FIFA tried saying that Russia could play, just without actually calling themselves Russia and without any flag or anthem.
Other countries screamed even louder that they would refuse to play. Within a day, FIFA has finally said that Russian teams are suspended from competition. Poland gets a bye into the next round of qualifying for the men's World Cup.
Couple of interesting things here.
This one, which may or may not contain some insights into the Kremlin mindset, comes with the warning that the source isn't verified
https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585
And this one on the Kremlin communications strategy.
https://mobile.twitter.com/irgarner/status/1498334397904441344?s=21
And here is the full Kremlin article referred to in that twitter link, it is a fascinating read.
https://thefrontierpost.com/the-new-world-order/
After a Fumbled Start, Russian Forces Hit Harder in Ukraine (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-military.html)
Yes, you can see the results from Karkhiv, where multiple explosions occurred in a tight pattern. It looked like an MLRS strike.
Reports (BBC, AP, The Economist) of a 27km-long Russian armored column advancing on Kiev.
This seemingly implies that Russia believes they now dominate Ukr. airspace.
Quote from: T. D. on February 28, 2022, 10:18:27 AM
Full photo:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMngSNMWYAEXqPV?format=jpg&name=large)
afraid of COVID? Maybe he has an underlying condition?
I just watched and found informative this interview (Amanpour and Company) of Bill Browder (Hermitage Capital Management), the man whose lawyer (Sergei Magnitsky) Putin brutally tortured for a year and then killed, inspiring the Magnitsky Act. What particularly interested me was his analysis of Putin's motivations vis a vis current adventures and how it contrasts with that of Fiona Hill. Hill emphasizes Putin's sense of history and national pride. Browder says its about nothing but power and money and all the rest is smoke. There is detailed discussion of sanctions and Browder's current attempts to promote more draconian ones in European capitols.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y7XBQG5TzM
Quote from: MusicTurner on February 28, 2022, 06:14:24 AM
, Shoigu being a possible scheduled succesor for Putin. .
I read last night a pundit who claimed that Shoigu, being from an non-Slavic ethnic minority (Tuva), has no prospect of becoming a successor to Putin--which paradoxically gives him extra power: Putin can let him do what he wants because Shoigu will never be in a position to challenge him.
Quote from: JBS on February 28, 2022, 07:00:15 PM
I read last night a pundit who claimed that Shoigu, being from an non-Slavic ethnic minority (Tuva), has no prospect of becoming a successor to Putin--which paradoxically gives him extra power: Putin can let him do what he wants because Shoigu will never be in a position to challenge him.
Thanks for this. I generally agree with the pundit. But I'm not sure how much "extra power" Shoigu could prudently exercise...the video of Putin intimidating intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin took me back to the old days of Kremlin-watching: has Naryshkin been seen in public since the dressing-down? [In olden times, experts would speculate whether he had become a non-person or even been liquidated.]
And "extra power" may not be the correct term. Perhaps Shoigu, as a result of ethnicity, has more leeway or freedom to act independently, but at the same time he can never ascend to the innermost of the inner circle.
Nice article with good graphics on the weapons being sent to Ukraine:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10551271/The-weapons-Ukraine-using-hold-invading-Russian-Army.html
A text message sent from a Russian soldier died in Ukraine to his mother：
'Mom I'm no longer in Crimea,' they began. 'I'm not in training sessions.'
His mother asks: 'Where are you then? Papa is asking whether I can send you a parcel.'
'What kind of a parcel mama can you send me,' he responds
'What are you talking about? What happened?'
'Mama, I'm in Ukraine,'
'There is a real war raging here. I'm afraid. We are bombing all of the cities together, even targeting civilians.
'We were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armored vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass.
'They call us fascists. Mama. This is so hard.'
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMngSNMWYAEXqPV?format=jpg&name=large)
The symbolism is exquisite.
Quote from: JBS on February 28, 2022, 07:00:15 PM
I read last night a pundit who claimed that Shoigu, being from an non-Slavic ethnic minority (Tuva), has no prospect of becoming a successor to Putin--which paradoxically gives him extra power: Putin can let him do what he wants because Shoigu will never be in a position to challenge him.
Stalin was from a non-Slavic ethnic minority. Admittedly, Georgians were a bit less "minority" than Tuva in the Soviet Union, but still.
Quote from: Todd on February 28, 2022, 06:33:44 AM
What is the timeline for these events?
Always hard to predict.... Some of it rather soon, some a few years down the road...
If you'd asked a couple a weeks ago when Germany would be ready to take the lead in a common EU defence - because that's what it takes - I would have said probably another decade. Now they are ready and have raised their defence budget with 100 bln euros...
BTW Japan will have to rearm as well, and they'd better be quick about it...
The aftermath of WW II is now officially over. Which is not necessarily good news... ::)
Possibly accurate, possibly inaccurate, account if Russia's tactical nuclear defence policy
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/02/20/russian_modernization_of_its_nuclear_and_military_forces_in_2021_661111.html
No matter how this ends, the arms industry has already won this war.
All European countries are suddenly upping their defense spending, and loads of weapons are sent to to Ukraine where complete rookies get handed anti-tank weapons and automatic rifles which, years down the road, will wind up in the hands of organized crime all over EU.
Quote from: T. D. on February 28, 2022, 02:51:46 PM
Reports (BBC, AP, The Economist) of a 27km-long Russian armored column advancing on Kiev.
This seemingly implies that Russia believes they now dominate Ukr. airspace.
According to military experts, one doesn't necessarily need aircrafts to stop a column of tanks. Anti-tank missiles might be just as effective.
It's fairy obvious that the invasion is a fiasco, albeit a bloody one. After six days Russian did not conquer any important city, let alone Kiev. The unexpected yet heroic Ukrainian resistance is admirable.
Quote from: milk on February 28, 2022, 05:17:19 PM
afraid of COVID? Maybe he has an underlying condition?
It's been speculated he's mysophobic AND didn't get a covid shot.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 28, 2022, 06:50:20 AM
It would be nice if his control of popular opinion could be broken and Russia could become a messy, chaotic democracy like Ukraine.
Russia will never be a functional democracy, not even a messy and chaotic one. The culture of unconditional obedience to the ruler and the scarcity of any personal and civic intiative is deeply ingrained in the Russian society and amply documented in their own literature. The liberals have always been a tiny minority and the strongest opposition to autocracy, albeit an ineffective one, came from anarchists and socialists and took mostly the form of assassinations, The Bolshevik coup only made the matters worse and resulted in even more severe authoritarianism.
The best hope for Russia and the world is a moderately authoritarian regime with a clearly defined and widely accepted mechanism of power change --- ie, the restoration of the Tsars. ;D
Well said, and it's exactly what my physician friend from Poland said; he lived under Soviet domination for the first 40 years of his life. He said about the Russian people,"they can't help it - that's how they are".
Lest anybody becomes misty-eyed and dreamy about Marxism and Communism.....not like the numb-nuts who appeared before HUAC!! Body bags were being filled outside America and these dim-wits frolicked with communism in the arts. You couldn't make it up!! And then they bawled because their arses were hauled before the American people. Armchair revolutionaries.
Russian peacekeeping and brotherhood with Ukrainians in action:
(https://i0.wp.com/then24.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Putin-bombs-civilian-targets-massacre-in-a-Kharkov-residential-neighborhood.jpg?fit=1800%2C1013&ssl=1) (https://www.naveenbharat.in/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Heavy-shelling-by-Russian-forces-in-Kharkiv-Ukraines-second-largest-city-780x470.jpg) (https://cdn.dnaindia.com/sites/default/files/styles/third/public/2022/02/28/1023671-ukr-rus-ani-1.jpg)
Deeply, deeply distressing.
Russian conductor Valery Gergiev loses manager and bookings over refusal to denounce Ukraine invasion (https://completemusicupdate.com/article/russian-conductor-valery-gergiev-loses-manager-and-bookings-over-refusal-to-denounce-ukraine-invasion/)
Fom the article:
Russian conductor Valery Gergiev has been dropped by his management and from upcoming performances in Europe and the US over his failure to denounce Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The friend and long-time supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far issued no statement on the war.
Gergiev had been represented by Munich-based manager Marcus Felsner since December 2020. However, in a statement yesterday, Felsner said: "In the light of the criminal war waged by the Russian regime against the democratic and independent nation of Ukraine, and against the European open society as a whole, it has become impossible for us, and clearly unwelcome, to defend the interests of Maestro Gergiev".
Felsner called Gergiev "the greatest conductor alive and an extraordinary human being with a profound sense of decency" and said that dropping him as a client was "the saddest day of my professional life". Nonetheless, he said that he had no choice because Gergiev "will not, or cannot, publicly end his long-expressed support for a regime that has come to commit such crimes".
Gergiev, a long-standing personal friend of Putin and staunch defender of his criminal actions, an extraordinary human being with a profound sense of decency? My a$$. He's a scumbag. Ill never ever again listen to his recordings --- not that I have many anyway.
Netrebko have been sent home from a concert in Denmark because of her ties to the Russian establishment.
The Romanian government shut down several Russian propaganda websites and forbid Romanian cable TV operators to provide Russia Today, yet Russian propaganda goes on unabashed, even intensified, on social media. Russian propagandists and their Romanian useful idiots claim (1) that Ukraine should not be supported because they occupy centuries-old Romanian territories and (2) that Romanians, as Orthodox Christians, should be embracing their Russian brothers in faith.
I'll start with (2). All the world can see right now how Christianly Russians behave in Ukraine and what Orthodox brotherhood actually means for Russians: bringing in 10,000 Muslim fanatics to slaughter Orthodox Ukrainians.
As for (1), while it's technically true that present-day Ukraine contains ancient Romanian territories, it's not Uklrainians who took them from us, it's the Russians. Secondly, what imbecile can believe that if Russians wipe Ukraine off the map they will return said territories to Romania? Thirdly, any sane, rational Romanian should prefer having as neighbour an independent and territorially whole Ukraine (which in her whole history after 1991 never posed the slightest threat to us, not even when ruled by pro-Muscovites) to having as neighbour Russia, which in her whole history proved to be an implacable enemy of Romania.
Only imbeciles can fall to such propaganda and indeed polls show that people who trust Russia more than EU or NATO are mostly young, unemployed and uneducated. The good news is they are a minority.
Quote from: Que on February 28, 2022, 10:38:34 PMIf you'd asked a couple a weeks ago when Germany would be ready to take the lead in a common EU defence - because that's what it takes - I would have said probably another decade. Now they are ready and have raised their defence budget with 100 bln euros...
The German policy changes may end up benefitting Russia. I am not convinced that all European nations will be keen on a remilitarized Germany. This in itself brings in to doubt the possibility of a common EU defense, with or without the UK.
As the US shifts its focus to Asia, the relevance of NATO declines. Without US direction, NATO effectiveness would then rely on Turkey due to military size and a remilitarized Germany. That does not bode well for the organization, and if no one learns of the strategic value of a neutralized Ukraine after the current mess, then NATO would be worse than worthless, it would become destabilizing.
I would hope European leaders pursue energy diversification, a lesson the US learned in the 70s, and nuclear power, still very much a viable option in some countries, is of course part of the mix, despite naysayers.
Quote from: Todd on March 01, 2022, 05:13:12 AM
nuclear power, still very much a viable option in some countries, is of course part of the mix, despite naysayers.
It's not "part of the mix", it's the only viable option.
Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC, on the Situation in Ukraine: "I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation." (https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.aspx?name=20220228-prosecutor-statement-ukraine)
Last Friday, I expressed my increasing concern, echoing those of world leaders and citizens of the world alike, over the events unfolding in Ukraine.
Today, I wish to announce that I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation into the Situation in Ukraine, as rapidly as possible.
Ukraine is not a State Party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court ("ICC" or the "Court"), so cannot itself refer the situation to my Office. But it has twice exercised its prerogatives to legally accept the Court's jurisdiction over alleged crimes under the Rome Statute occurring on its territory, should the Court choose to exercise it. The first declaration lodged by the Government of Ukraine accepted ICC jurisdiction with respect to alleged crimes committed on Ukrainian territory from 21 November 2013 to 22 February 2014. The second declaration extended this time period on an open-ended basis to encompass ongoing alleged crimes committed throughout the territory of Ukraine from 20 February 2014 onwards.
I have reviewed the Office's conclusions arising from the preliminary examination of the Situation in Ukraine, and have confirmed that there is a reasonable basis to proceed with opening an investigation. In particular, I am satisfied that there is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine in relation to the events already assessed during the preliminary examination by the Office. Given the expansion of the conflict in recent days, it is my intention that this investigation will also encompass any new alleged crimes falling within the jurisdiction of my Office that are committed by any party to the conflict on any part of the territory of Ukraine.
I have already tasked my team to explore all evidence preservation opportunities. The next step is to proceed with the process of seeking and obtaining authorisation from the Pre-Trial Chamber of the Court to open an investigation. An alternative route set out in the Statute that could further expedite matters would be for an ICC State Party to refer the situation to my Office, which would allow us to actively and immediately proceed with the Office's independent and objective investigations.
I will also be asking for the support of all States Parties and the international community as a whole as my Office sets about its investigations. I will be calling for additional budgetary support, for voluntary contributions to support all our situations, and for the loan of gratis personnel. The importance and urgency of our mission is too serious to be held hostage to lack of means.
I will continue to closely follow developments on the ground in Ukraine, and again call for restraint and strict adherence to the applicable rules of international humanitarian law.
If anyone has information relevant to the Situation, this can be submitted to my Office via: otp.informationdesk@icc-cpi.int.
Quote from: Florestan on March 01, 2022, 05:19:59 AM
It's not "part of the mix", it's the only viable option.
The mix is the only option - nuclear, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc. German authorities proclaimed German electricity will be from sustainable sources by 2035. Ambitious, but maybe. That shifts geopolitics a bit if it comes to pass.
Quote from: Florestan on March 01, 2022, 05:24:14 AM
Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC, on the Situation in Ukraine: "I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation." (https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.aspx?name=20220228-prosecutor-statement-ukraine)
I guess this is a chance for the ICC to show that it does not go after only Africans.
Quote from: Todd on March 01, 2022, 05:30:05 AM
The mix is the only option - nuclear, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc.
Wind, solar, tidal, geothermal are certainly useful and welcome but even you add them all up, you can't come even close to nuclear in terms of efficiency and total power generated.
Quote
I guess this is a chance for the ICC to show that it does not go after only Africans.
One can only hope.
Quote from: Florestan on March 01, 2022, 05:39:35 AM
Wind, solar, tidal, geothermal are certainly useful and welcome but even you add them all up, you can't come even close to nuclear in terms of efficiency and total power generated.
Not true. When the most reliable form of renewable energy is included - hydroelectric dams - then renewables currently generate well over twice the output of nuclear energy. Non-hydroelectric renewable energy output exceeds nuclear output now. Of course, nuclear energy and renewables combined generate less than a fifth of total global energy output, so those figures need to be put in perspective. The mix is the answer.
Quote from: Todd on March 01, 2022, 05:47:33 AM
The mix is the answer.
Okay, but excluding the nuclear from the mix, as Germany did, is the top of foolishness.
Quote from: Florestan on March 01, 2022, 05:56:56 AM
Okay, but excluding the nuclear from the mix, as Germany did, is the top of foolishness.
It's absolutely nuts.
Quote from: Florestan on February 28, 2022, 09:58:30 AM
What was going on in their heads nobody can know, but what conversation are you talking about? From the video footage it can be seen that Shoigu lowered his head and said "Sir, yes, Sir!" or something like that and that was all. ;D
I was surprised to see that they took video of it. Haven't seen it myself.
PD
Quote from: Madiel on February 28, 2022, 08:50:34 PM
Stalin was from a non-Slavic ethnic minority. Admittedly, Georgians were a bit less "minority" than Tuva in the Soviet Union, but still.
Are you old enough to remember the days when Kremlinologists relied on who was standing next to whom on May Day reviewing stands for predictions?
It hasn't really gotten much better.
I don't think NATO will recede from significance to Europeans, or that German leadership will be unwelcome. Risk is relative, and for Russia to be less of a threat than a well integrated democratic Germany a great deal would have to change first. From the US perspective both the Atlantic and Pacific side of the alliance system should be secure as can be. There's no point in absolute binary thinking about this. The significance of Taiwan, S. Korea, and Japan doesn't go down because Europe goes up, or vice versa.
Alliances that protect member states are less provocative than weak states on the border of an aggressor state. The absence of NATO is more dangerous than the presence. Putin disagrees, as do anti-anti-Putinists. What do Russians think? As far as I can tell, the majority agree with me. Ukraine doesn't threaten them. They live with NATO states on the border just fine.
Quote from: Christabel on March 01, 2022, 01:27:35 AM
Well said, and it's exactly what my physician friend from Poland said; he lived under Soviet domination for the first 40 years of his life. He said about the Russian people,"they can't help it - that's how they are".
Lest anybody becomes misty-eyed and dreamy about Marxism and Communism.....not like the numb-nuts who appeared before HUAC!! Body bags were being filled outside America and these dim-wits frolicked with communism in the arts. You couldn't make it up!! And then they bawled because their arses were hauled before the American people. Armchair revolutionaries.
How nice! Someone nostalgic for the McCarthy era. Oh ... and they did make a lot of it up before they (HUAC) were dragged off the stage and consigned to the cesspool of history.
Quote from: drogulus on March 01, 2022, 07:48:50 AM
I don't think NATO will recede from significance to Europeans, or that German leadership will be unwelcome. Risk is relative, and for Russia to be less of a threat than a well integrated democratic Germany a great deal would have to change first. From the US perspective both the Atlantic and Pacific side of the alliance system should be secure as can be. There's no point in absolute binary thinking about this. The significance of Taiwan, S. Korea, and Japan doesn't go down because Europe goes up, or vice versa.
Alliances that protect member states are less provocative than weak states on the border of an aggressor state. The absence of NATO is more dangerous than the presence. Putin disagrees, as do anti-anti-Putinists. What do Russians think? As far as I can tell, the majority agree with me. Ukraine doesn't threaten them. They live with NATO states on the border just fine.
Agreed on all counts. There can be no secure Europe without US, there can be no secure US without Europe. There is no alternative to NATO other than complete chaos worldwide. Talks about an European defense force outside NATO are extremely naive and play directly into the hands of Russia.
Quote from: Florestan on March 01, 2022, 08:30:18 AMThere is no alternative to NATO other than complete chaos worldwide.
A classic false dichotomy.
Quote from: Florestan on March 01, 2022, 08:30:18 AM
Agreed on all counts. There can be no secure Europe without US, there can be no secure US without Europe. There is no alternative to NATO other than complete chaos worldwide. Talks about an European defense force outside NATO are extremely naive and play directly into the hands of Russia.
What motive would induce NATO to disengage from the US? I have already addressed the issue that motivates the US, which is that the strength of the alliance system can't be argued out of by implying that defense motivates aggressors more than lack of defense does. But, people do argue like that, of course. Putin does, for example. Maybe we should believes his words more than his actions. I don't. The cooperator nations will continue to cooperate against the defectors for reasons that make sense at the pragmatic level. Alliances are stronger than the separate parts alone.
'Yes, He Would': Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340)
"NATO is not going to be part of the conflict," Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. "So NATO is not going to send troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace."
(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/evil.gif)
To be crystal clear, the planes NATO absolutely will not move are Mig-29s, which by coincidence Ukes know how to fly, and the country with unmovable-by-NATO jets is notorious for kielbasa.
Now I read the deal may not go through, or not immediately. It involves third parties and politics, and the complexities of air defense by countries that don't have huge air forces.
St. Jeremy Corbyn
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1498629995572441098
Quote from: drogulus on March 01, 2022, 10:21:58 AM
'Yes, He Would': Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340)
The journalism is yellowing.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 01, 2022, 11:38:21 AM
The journalism is yellowing.
I thought it was an interesting interview with someone who knows Putin and Russia very well. I don't think Putin will order a tactical nuke launch, and I doubt the military would obey such an order.
Quote from: drogulus on March 01, 2022, 11:49:04 AM
I thought it was an interesting interview with someone who knows Putin and Russia very well. I don't think Putin will order a tactical nuke launch, and I doubt the military would obey such an order.
I don't doubt the interest. "Yes, he would" is an icon for the irresponsibility rampant among today's journos.
Not that anyone cares in particular what I have to say, but in reviewing the evidence for the theory that Putin and the West are operating in one another's mutual interest here, I have to say it's fairly convincing.
For example:
- in 2021 Jens Stoltenberg reiterated an offer for Ukraine to begin its process of accession to NATO, which had already been made at previous NATO summits. The delays in joining NATO were almost entirely due to Ukrainian inaction. They evidently didn't see a need to join the organisation.
- in general, the relevance of NATO has been perceived to be in decline; people in many Western countries openly question the necessity of remaining part of the alliance, and of course, as Trump famously complained, member states do not contribute sufficiently.
- due to this perceived irrelevance of NATO, the Russian-led "counter-bloc" CSTO has also been considered largely irrelevant, and to an even greater degree.
- both the USA and Russia are perceived as declining powers, although Russia more so; it is now perfectly normal for numerous countries to have no formal alliances with, or economic dependence upon, either one
Yet as a result of this war, regardless of the outcome:
- NATO suddenly regains its relevance. An existential threat to the existing order of things is now present, and therefore countries that previously had only a mild interest in joining the alliance or allying with it may now feel pressured into doing so
- CSTO also suddenly regains its relevance. NATO cannot be allowed to dictate world policy, and therefore countries that had previously displayed only mild friendliness towards Russia may now feel pressured into allying with it
- Regardless of whether Russia is victorious or not, high casualty counts and the resulting refugee crisis cement it as being still a military power of great importance, which can maintain a qualitative military edge over its neighbours. Regardless of whether Ukraine is victorious or not, Western countries can cement themselves as also being military powers by proxy (esp those that usually don't participate in wars: Germany, Sweden, etc) through shipping massive amounts of advanced weapons into the country and then claiming either that the Ukrainian victory was due to these weapons, or that the Ukrainian defeat would have been even more severe without these weapons.
- Images of mass destruction of infrastructure and military equipment can be claimed by both sides as proof that their weapons are more effective, seeing as no proof can be satisfactorily obtained indicating which side committed which atrocity.
- The effects of the economic warfare have largely ended up helping Russian, European and American oligarchs in the short term, and probably the long term, as the main result was an increase in oil prices.
But probably most saliently:
- Two weeks ago, the world economy was on the threshold of recession, caused primarily by fiscal policy, along with the continuing effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which various world governments had all collectively decided was "over" and "not worth paying attention to anymore". These causes for recession would normally be guaranteed to turn people against their own governments. Now, since the world's entire attention is focused on the war, once the recession does begin, the Russians will be able to blame America & the EU, and the Americans and Europeans will be able to blame Russia.
I don't imagine Putin, Biden and Stoltenberg were hanging out in a smoke-filled room making a deal to arrange a war for economic and political purposes. I imagine Putin (or more likely whatever set of advisors and government officials are truly responsible for this) planned out a complicated version of what has, for some reason, been named the Batman Gambit (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/BatmanGambit). Everything here was planned on the assumption that NATO (et al.) wanted war in Ukraine for various reasons, and would decide that the economic and political advantages were worth sacrificing millions of Ukrainians, and that assumption has been correct so far.
If this seems completely irrational, note that Putin's approval rating in Russia has shot up by at least ten percentage points relative to before the war. I expect European leaders will see similar increases. General Smedley Butler had a similar hypothesis about a century ago.
Am I entirely convinced? Not sure. I don't know nearly enough about the economic side of things, whether a recession really was inevitable etc. But it's notable that if this is accurate, the failure condition for Putin, Biden and Stoltenberg (and most of the various other world leaders involved in this) is an immediate ceasefire and a political solution to the conflict that doesn't require any NATO involvement, and that's what has felt like the best possible outcome from the beginning.
I have to disagree vehemently with that.
Putin went to war in the belief that he would get as little blowback as he had for usurping the Crimea or backing Assad. The Europeans were jolted into action because they had persuaded themselves the age of armed invasion was over and were suprised to find it wasn't.
Blaming oligarchs and arms manufacturing for wars is much too simplistic and reductionist (a common problem in Leftist discourse). Putin seems to quite sincerely want a revived Russian Empire, with himself in charge, something a simple analysis who gets paid for what leaves out.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 01, 2022, 11:38:21 AM
The journalism is yellowing.
I wouldn't discount what Hill is saying. Putin and the Russian military have gamed out the use of nuclear weapons in various scenarios and if things get sticky in the Ukraine campaign a tactical nuke strike is in the playbook.
Quote from: JBS on March 01, 2022, 12:29:28 PMPutin seems to quite sincerely want a revived Russian Empire, with himself in charge, something a simple analysis who gets paid for what leaves out.
Assuming that's true, that goal is completely consistent with the interests of an expanded, more powerful American empire (NATO). Without NATO, Russia becomes a country in decline, practically irrelevant even to its neighbours, with China and the EU gradually taking over its entire sphere of influence. With a strong NATO Russia can convince its various satellite states/former Soviet republics/etc that it's in their interests to join or ally with a renewed Russian empire (CSTO), lest they be the ones facing sanctions and economic warfare in the near future.
Essentially, one could view the whole thing as an attempt to rebalance things in favour of a "Russia vs. America axis" of political power, rather than the "China vs. Everyone Else axis" that has been gradually developing over the last three decades.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 01, 2022, 01:40:49 PM
I wouldn't discount what Hill is saying. Putin and the Russian military have gamed out the use of nuclear weapons in various scenarios and if things get sticky in the Ukraine campaign a tactical nuke strike is in the playbook.
I see that. I also see that Putin has played US journos before. Someone's pulling strings, and it's not Hill.
NATO does not seek the relevance it has. Left alone, its relevance would tend to decline almost as much as certain detractors would like. Democracies are slow to react to danger. One can consult history, a real thing.
Putin's horror of NATO and democratic states on the Russian border is not consistent with the theory that he wants NATO as an excuse for his actions. He doesn't need an excuse to invade a prosperous democratic Ukraine, which is itself a threat to his rule and his ambition to restore Russian imperial glory.
Quote from: amw on March 01, 2022, 12:14:11 PM
Not that anyone cares in particular what I have to say, but in reviewing the evidence for the theory that Putin and the West are operating in one another's mutual interest here, I have to say it's fairly convincing.
I'm very curious where you get these theories from?
Quote from: Que on March 01, 2022, 02:40:33 PM
I'm very curious where you get these theories from?
We are all pawns of hidden forces with plans so devious and malevolent that only crankish wingnuts can figure them out. The mainstream media won't tell you this, which proves it's true.
Quote from: drogulus on March 01, 2022, 03:11:07 PM
We are all pawns of hidden forces with plans so devious and malevolent that only crankish wingnuts can figure them out. The mainstream media won't tell you this, which proves it's true.
Dang! I
knew it!
"We stand united with Ukraine!"
It seems Russia is now throwing in everything it has. Paratroopers in Kharkiv, Kherson has reportedly been taken, Mariupol could get encircled soon.
Ukraine maps: The battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682) (BBC)
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/C4AB/production/_123474305_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_03_01_2x640-nc.png)
The battle for the major cities might be over in a while, but I think (hope) for Putin this will become a Pyrrhic victory.
Quote from: amw on March 01, 2022, 12:14:11 PM
Not that anyone cares in particular what I have to say, but in reviewing the evidence for the theory that Putin and the West are operating in one another's mutual interest here, I have to say it's fairly convincing.
For example:
- in 2021 Jens Stoltenberg reiterated an offer for Ukraine to begin its process of accession to NATO, which had already been made at previous NATO summits. The delays in joining NATO were almost entirely due to Ukrainian inaction. They evidently didn't see a need to join the organisation.
- in general, the relevance of NATO has been perceived to be in decline; people in many Western countries openly question the necessity of remaining part of the alliance, and of course, as Trump famously complained, member states do not contribute sufficiently.
- due to this perceived irrelevance of NATO, the Russian-led "counter-bloc" CSTO has also been considered largely irrelevant, and to an even greater degree.
- both the USA and Russia are perceived as declining powers, although Russia more so; it is now perfectly normal for numerous countries to have no formal alliances with, or economic dependence upon, either one
Yet as a result of this war, regardless of the outcome:
- NATO suddenly regains its relevance. An existential threat to the existing order of things is now present, and therefore countries that previously had only a mild interest in joining the alliance or allying with it may now feel pressured into doing so
- CSTO also suddenly regains its relevance. NATO cannot be allowed to dictate world policy, and therefore countries that had previously displayed only mild friendliness towards Russia may now feel pressured into allying with it
- Regardless of whether Russia is victorious or not, high casualty counts and the resulting refugee crisis cement it as being still a military power of great importance, which can maintain a qualitative military edge over its neighbours. Regardless of whether Ukraine is victorious or not, Western countries can cement themselves as also being military powers by proxy (esp those that usually don't participate in wars: Germany, Sweden, etc) through shipping massive amounts of advanced weapons into the country and then claiming either that the Ukrainian victory was due to these weapons, or that the Ukrainian defeat would have been even more severe without these weapons.
- Images of mass destruction of infrastructure and military equipment can be claimed by both sides as proof that their weapons are more effective, seeing as no proof can be satisfactorily obtained indicating which side committed which atrocity.
- The effects of the economic warfare have largely ended up helping Russian, European and American oligarchs in the short term, and probably the long term, as the main result was an increase in oil prices.
But probably most saliently:
- Two weeks ago, the world economy was on the threshold of recession, caused primarily by fiscal policy, along with the continuing effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which various world governments had all collectively decided was "over" and "not worth paying attention to anymore". These causes for recession would normally be guaranteed to turn people against their own governments. Now, since the world's entire attention is focused on the war, once the recession does begin, the Russians will be able to blame America & the EU, and the Americans and Europeans will be able to blame Russia.
I don't imagine Putin, Biden and Stoltenberg were hanging out in a smoke-filled room making a deal to arrange a war for economic and political purposes. I imagine Putin (or more likely whatever set of advisors and government officials are truly responsible for this) planned out a complicated version of what has, for some reason, been named the Batman Gambit (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/BatmanGambit). Everything here was planned on the assumption that NATO (et al.) wanted war in Ukraine for various reasons, and would decide that the economic and political advantages were worth sacrificing millions of Ukrainians, and that assumption has been correct so far.
If this seems completely irrational, note that Putin's approval rating in Russia has shot up by at least ten percentage points relative to before the war. I expect European leaders will see similar increases. General Smedley Butler had a similar hypothesis about a century ago.
Am I entirely convinced? Not sure. I don't know nearly enough about the economic side of things, whether a recession really was inevitable etc. But it's notable that if this is accurate, the failure condition for Putin, Biden and Stoltenberg (and most of the various other world leaders involved in this) is an immediate ceasefire and a political solution to the conflict that doesn't require any NATO involvement, and that's what has felt like the best possible outcome from the beginning.
While there might be forms of economic benefit to the west, I query what economic benefits there are to Russia out of this. Economic sanctions are likely to bite. I've already seen a report that inflation is going up in Russia, and both access to funds and purchasing power of funds are going to be significant issues for them.
Putin's popularity might well go up in the very short term, but if the economic impact of sanctions on daily life is bad enough his popularity could well take a hit in the longer term.
Quote from: Que on March 02, 2022, 12:30:37 AM
It seems Russia is now throwing in everything it has. Paratroopers in Kharkiv, Kherson has reportedly been taken, Mariupol could get encircled soon.
Ukraine maps: The battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682) (BBC)
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/C4AB/production/_123474305_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_03_01_2x640-nc.png)
The battle for the major cities might be over in a while, but I think (hope) for Putin this will become a Pyrrhic victory.
+1
Quote from: JBS on March 01, 2022, 12:29:28 PM
I have to disagree vehemently with that.
Quote from: Que on March 01, 2022, 02:40:33 PM
I'm very curious where you get these theories from?
Why do you even bother with
amw's balderdash? Over the years, she has been an apologist for Lenin and Stalin (going so far as to deny the Gulag), for Maoist China (going so far as to deny the atrocities of the Great Leap Forward) and for Hamas.
There's a presidency 'election' planned in RU in March 2024 ...
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 02, 2022, 03:14:33 AM
There's a presidency 'election' planned in RU in March 2024 ...
Here's what the ballot will look like:
Putin
Putin
Putin
Putin*
*if he still lives
I have suffered massive anxiety because of this conflict. Since this doesn't seem to end soon I need to address my fears and try to control them better.
- I will follow less media about this war
- I will concentrate on my hobbies (music, music, music!)
- I will do breathing exercises
- Walks around the neighbourhood
Apparently some people can control their fears by following the media more, gathering more information, but for some other people it is the opposite. I seem to belong to the latter group of people. Because of my INTJ/P personality type my brain analysis the information generating meaning "between the lines" and in this situation it means intuitive horror scenarious my inferior feeling can't control properly. So, less media following for me!
Quote from: LKB on March 02, 2022, 04:12:05 AM
Here's what the ballot will look like:
Putin
Putin
Putin
Putin*
*if he still lives
The interesting question is, whether the mythology he has built up around himself will still hold, or not.
Generally,
Kamil Galeev writes brilliantly, but biased (and with a bit of grammatical exoticism added). Also, some of his views are very debatable.
Overview of his threads: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711
But he thinks this will be the end of the Putin myth - and even, that Russia will lose the war, because of the set of false initial assumptions, that is accompanying it:
Analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
"Putin initially built his reputation and popularity through a Special Operations disguised as a small victorious war. He repeated this little trick every time his image waned. In Ukraine he just scaled up, mistakenly":https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1496711906412933121
Quote from: LKB on March 02, 2022, 04:12:05 AM
Here's what the ballot will look like:
Putin
Putin
Putin
Putin*
*if he still lives
Putin
Someone else <- dies mysteriously
Someone else <- missing
Someone else <- ballots thrown out
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1497938457280360452
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 02, 2022, 05:01:34 AM
The interesting question is, whether the mythology he has built up around himself will still hold, or not.
Generally, Kamil Galeev writes brilliantly, but biased (and with a bit of grammatical exoticism added). Also, some of his views are very debatable.
Overview of his threads: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498377757536968711
But he thinks this will be the end of the Putin myth - and even, that Russia will lose the war, because of the set of false initial assumptions, that are accompanying it: Analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
"Putin initially built his reputation and popularity through a Special Operations disguised as a small victorious war. He repeated this little trick every time his image waned. In Ukraine he just scaled up, mistakenly":
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1496711906412933121
What is the winning situation for Putin? He is hated - more than ever. He has united people against him. He's provoked ire which has big economic repercussions for Russia and the oligarchs. Even if he succeeds militarily, he's already given his own competence and military a black eye. Plus, how can he hold onto the Ukraine over the long haul even if he does make up the lost ground and succeed? what will be the cost? There are many questions. Like, is he willing to kill scores of people to make up for the incompetence that's been displayed so far?
It's only been a few days but Putin seems to have weakened himself. Trump is the only one who thinks he's a genius. It's a side issue, but will this be a further nail in trum's proverbial coffin as well?
A disaster for Putin, a worse disaster for Ukraine.
Putin obviously expected it to be a cakewalk, Crimea part II. He expected Ukraine's military to capitulate; he issued a statement encouraging the Ukraine military to remove the government, allowing for a peaceful reintegration with Russia. A Russian government web site accidentally published a statement dated two days after the invasion started announcing the brilliant success of the operation. He didn't expect this. The gas pipeline to Germany, already built, is not dead. The collapse in the value of the Ruble will hurt ordinary Russians and may chip away at his vaunted popularity. But damage to Russia doesn't make the damage to Ukraine any easier to bear.
I find myself thinking of the plight or ordinary Ukrainians, rather than the doings of political leaders. I remember reading a novel called Suite Francaise, by Irene Nemirovsky, which describes the panicked evacuation of Paris by civilians in the face of the Nazi invasion. I recall scenes of country roads choked with broken-down cars and people carrying what they had left of their possessions as they trudged on. The manuscript was found decades later by her descendants, written in minute script in a notebook. Nemirovsky died in a concentration camp.
(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/518bVI4YGoL._SX324_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg)
Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, But We Might Too (https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putin-loses-no-matter-how-this-plays-out-but-we-might-too/)
Putin is a scelerate but how do you call the Moscow policemen who arrested children?
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/02/moscow-police-detain-children-holding-anti-war-placard-a76711 (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/02/moscow-police-detain-children-holding-anti-war-placard-a76711)
Quote from: Que on March 02, 2022, 12:30:37 AM
It seems Russia is now throwing in everything it has. Paratroopers in Kharkiv, Kherson has reportedly been taken, Mariupol could get encircled soon.
Ukraine maps: The battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682) (BBC)
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/C4AB/production/_123474305_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_03_01_2x640-nc.png)
The battle for the major cities might be over in a while, but I think (hope) for Putin this will become a Pyrrhic victory.
I have seen a lot of similar maps and they tend to gloss over the meaning of "Russian control", and operate under the assumption that Russia plans to occupy Ukraine for a long period of time and is therefore taking control of every settlement in a particular area/driving out Ukrainian military units completely. That doesn't seem to be true. Russia may
appear to have "taken" a lot of territory but it's been mostly moving columns down highways and attacking specific targets, rather than establishing zones of control in the traditional sense; there are reportedly still Ukrainian military/paramilitary units behind the "front line" and a number of major cities and towns have been completely bypassed. (For example, the area Western media considers "under Russian control" has covered the Enerhodar nuclear power plant near Zaporizhia for several days now, but Russian media has been reporting that Russian forces seized the power plant on at least three separate occasions. It's very likely still under Ukrainian control.) Russia's control over the shaded area (except for Crimea and the DPR/LPR) is therefore more or less illusory, and would probably collapse in the face of any serious united opposition.
Russia's position in the north in particular is weaker than it looks. We'll see what happens with the negotiations planned for today, but I suspect this is the last time they'll do so while Russia still maintains a significant military advantage.
Quote from: Madiel on March 02, 2022, 12:46:53 AM
While there might be forms of economic benefit to the west, I query what economic benefits there are to Russia out of this. Economic sanctions are likely to bite. I've already seen a report that inflation is going up in Russia, and both access to funds and purchasing power of funds are going to be significant issues for them.
Putin's popularity might well go up in the very short term, but if the economic impact of sanctions on daily life is bad enough his popularity could well take a hit in the longer term.
I don't know enough about the economic side to determine whether any of what I wrote is accurate, obviously. Natural gas is above $2000 now as a result of the sanctions, and perhaps for Russian energy companies that will offset the inflation; economic cooperation with Pakistan and China also seems to have increased. But whether these things will truly provide short- or long-term benefit outweighing the effects of sanctions, I don't know.
I think Putin's popularity probably starts to drop as soon as the war is over and Russians, now divorced from patriotic fervour, remember that they still have a coronavirus crisis, an economic crisis (which the war may have made worse), etc. For that reason he probably wants to continue the war for as long as possible.
Quote from: Florestan on March 02, 2022, 01:55:55 AM
Why do you even bother with amw's balderdash? Over the years, she has been an apologist for Lenin and Stalin (going so far as to deny the Gulag), for Maoist China (going so far as to deny the atrocities of the Great Leap Forward) and for Hamas.
Yes, anyone who disagrees with you politically does not deserve to live, point taken.
Quote from: amw on March 02, 2022, 07:41:35 AM
Yes, anyone who disagrees with you politically does not deserve to live, point taken.
More balderdash.
Russia Must Lose (https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/russia-must-lose/)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 02, 2022, 08:29:48 AM
Russia Must Lose (https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/russia-must-lose/)
Yes.
Quote from: Florestan on March 02, 2022, 07:43:13 AM
More balderdash.
It may be balderdash in your sense of things, but anyone who doesn't know the characters involved and just reading the posts would have to believe she was correct in her assertion, even though you didn't overtly say that.
Note to all:We are a big tent here, with room for a variety of beliefs. If anyone's belief is not congruent with yours, either challenge it if you can prove it wrong, or ignore it if you can't. We won't be starting a war of our own here. This is a 'no-fly' zone. $:)
GB 8)
https://www.youtube.com/v/If61baWF4GE
Video about the context.
Regarding Donbass, the UN estimates that 3400 fatalities were civilians (until October, on both sides). Not 14000.
The rest were soldiers and militants.
Girkin, the initial leader of the Russian invasion groups in Crimea and Donbass, later said that without his groups, the total number of fatalities in Donbass would only have been a handful, and the fighting would have died out quickly. After some time there, he had wanted a complete, bigger and regular military invasion, like at the Debaltseve battle, but grabbing more land.
Quote from: amw on March 02, 2022, 07:41:35 AM
Yes, anyone who disagrees with you politically does not deserve to live, point taken.
Perhaps may be allowed to live, but does not deserve to be treated with even a minimum level of civility or common courtesy. The same goes for someone that likes music he doesn't like.
Quote from: Florestan on March 02, 2022, 08:36:18 AM
Yes.
Anything with a sub-headline "The United States and its allies have no choice but to consider escalation" should perhaps be read with a skeptical eye. Florid language, including "entropy" raises an eyebrow as well.
One not entirely unexpected outcome of the sensationalized coverage of this war is that one gets to witness some racist/eurocentric coverage. Charlie D'Agata seems to have set the standard for now. Let's see if anyone beats him.
Sibelius has entered the chat:
Finnish protesters singing Finlandia at Russian embassy in Helsinki (https://twitter.com/HannaMahlamaki/status/1498700760174968835)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 02, 2022, 08:29:48 AM
Russia Must Lose (https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/russia-must-lose/)
This is a familiar style of writing / speaking.
Some guy who spends his life safely in a well-stocked study has come to the conclusion that the fight must be fought till the very end - no matter how much destruction and death this entails. He'll just write another churchillean piece of bleh about it.
Quote from: Herman on March 02, 2022, 09:51:40 AM
Some guy who spends his life safely in a well-stocked study has come to the conclusion that the fight must be fought till the very end - no matter how much destruction and death this entails.
You're right. It's not Putin's and Lavrov's direct threats that are nuts and dangerous, it's an obscure article on an obscure website.
Quote from: Herman on March 02, 2022, 09:51:40 AM
This is a familiar style of writing / speaking.
Some guy who spends his life safely in a well-stocked study has come to the conclusion that the fight must be fought till the very end - no matter how much destruction and death this entails. He'll just write another churchillean piece of bleh about it.
You'll forgive my saying they this sounds like a reaction to the headline without regard for the piece itself.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 02, 2022, 10:01:25 AM
You'll forgive my saying they this sounds like a reaction to the headline without regard for the piece itself.
And of course, Russian soldiers are where they are thanks in no small measure to years of letting Putin bully whom he would without consequences.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 02, 2022, 10:01:25 AM
You'll forgive my saying they this sounds like a reaction to the headline without regard for the piece itself.
So you want me to read past "let's escalate this baby"?
The thing is the word combo Putin + Lose doesn't do it for me either.
Lives Saved, War Ended, much more.
Well, Rohac's (the author of the Putin Must Lose-piece) idea that the NATO enter into a shooting war with Russia in Ukraine could result in bombs on Berlin, Paris or Brussels, as retaliation.
His suggestion that the west should engage in cyberwar seems to assume that this isn't happening yet. I'm not so sure about this.
Looks like there might be a way regular people can help Ukraine: Ukraine raises $270 million from sale of war bonds to fund army as Russia's invasion continues (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/ukraine-raises-270-million-from-sale-of-war-bonds-to-fund-army.html)
Anyone here ready to buy with the next flotation?
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 02, 2022, 10:08:28 AM
And of course, Russian soldiers are where they are thanks in no small measure to years of letting Putin bully whom he would without consequences.
+ 1.
Quote from: Herman on March 02, 2022, 10:41:29 AM
Well, Rohac's (the author of the Putin Must Lose-piece) idea that the NATO enter into a shooting war with Russia in Ukraine could result in bombs on Berlin, Paris or Brussels, as retaliation.
His suggestion that the west should engage in cyberwar seems to assume that this isn't happening yet. I'm not so sure about this.
Agreed. This is the ultimate last resort scenario.
Cyberwar? Count on it. It seems to me that anyone who doesn't think so hasn't been paying attention the last 20 years. As much as USA bitches and whines about other countries hacking us (or trying anyway), fact is, we are as good as it gets at that, and doubtless unafraid to use that skill.
Do drones count as an act of war? Asking for a friend... ;)
8)
I think we can and should continue the pretense that Putin is not at war with everyone he is at war with, while continuing to provide support for Ukraine. One understands how difficult it is to thread this needlle.
I hear the gears turning in NATO heads. How far can we go? What level of support?
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 02, 2022, 11:30:59 AM
Do drones count as an act of war? Asking for a friend... ;)
8)
Erdogan is your friend maybe? Yes, these are the gears that turn. Me, I have visions of those notorious MIG-29s somehow falling off supersized trucks just across the border, where dirty Uke thieves with pilots licenses pounce on them.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 02, 2022, 11:30:59 AM
Do drones count as an act of war?
The more pressing question is whether a No Fly Zone constitutes an act of war.
This is all over the Czech media and the European twitterverse. Supposedly it's Lavrov being quoted by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.
"I do not exclude the possibility that someone wanted Russia to get stuck in Ukraine through an artificial conflict created by the West."
He also said they're ready to talk ceasefire.
If true, sounds like they are looking for a way out.
I think this war is better without acts of war. Sleepy Joe agrees. Now, carry on.
Quote from: The new erato on March 02, 2022, 02:58:00 PM
If true, sounds like they are looking for a way out.
Lavrov is too important to suffer so much.
We already knew ...
Quote from: The new erato on March 02, 2022, 02:58:00 PM
If true, sounds like they are looking for a way out.
Wishful thinking.
The talks are pretend talks.
Quote from: Rinaldo on March 02, 2022, 02:39:27 PM
This is all over the Czech media and the European twitterverse. Supposedly it's Lavrov being quoted by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.
"I do not exclude the possibility that someone wanted Russia to get stuck in Ukraine through an artificial conflict created by the West."
He also said they're ready to talk ceasefire.
[Emphasis added]
This is such flagrant and laughable bullshit that it doesn't even parse.
"Artificial conflict"? Are all the explosions, etc. fake? :laugh:
And surely the present conflict was created by the invaders (it's embarrassing even to type this... :P ).
Quote from: T. D. on March 02, 2022, 05:16:56 PM
[Emphasis added]
This is such flagrant and laughable bullshit that it doesn't even parse.
"Artificial conflict"? Are all the explosions, etc. fake? :laugh:
And surely the present conflict was created by the invaders (it's embarrassing even to type this... :P ).
I assume "artificial conflict" is another iteration of the claim of "NATO made me do it". Artificial in the sense that the war didn't have to happen, but certain people chose for it to happen.
In a way that's true, but the certain people happen to be named Vladimir Putin.
Fairly interesting BBC article with another fascinating photo (in addition to the Putin/Gerasimov/Shoigu pix posted above in the thread):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/A718/production/_123467724_security.jpg)
In the days before the invasion, Russian TV broadcast a session of President Putin's 30-member security council
Let the psychoanalysts (armchair and otherwise) chime in on this one.
Are these meetings amplified?
(I think he said "blessed are the cheesemakers")
Quote from: T. D. on March 02, 2022, 06:49:03 PM
Fairly interesting BBC article with another fascinating photo (in addition to the Putin/Gerasimov/Shoigu pix posted above in the thread):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/A718/production/_123467724_security.jpg)
In the days before the invasion, Russian TV broadcast a session of President Putin's 30-member security council
Let the psychoanalysts (armchair and otherwise) chime in on this one.
Thank you. I'm not sure anyone really wants to sit next to him at this point.
Quote from: Rinaldo on March 02, 2022, 02:39:27 PM
This is all over the Czech media and the European twitterverse. Supposedly it's Lavrov being quoted by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.
"I do not exclude the possibility that someone wanted Russia to get stuck in Ukraine through an artificial conflict created by the West."
A typically Russian lie: so blatant and counterfactual as to render the whole world speechless.
QuoteHe also said they're ready to talk ceasefire.
If Russians say "It's going to be a fine day today" make sure to take your umbrella with you.
The Russian version of the "big lie":
Russian schoolchildren to learn about war's 'necessity'
Russia's education ministry has announced that schoolchildren throughout the nation will be given a virtual lesson on "why the liberation mission in Ukraine is a necessity". The broadcasted instruction will take place at 12:00 Moscow time (09:00GMT) on Thursday.
Viewers will be taught "about the danger Nato represents to our country" and "why Russia stood up for the protection of the civilians of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics".
A statement on the ministry's Facebook page said children will also learn "how to distinguish the truth from lies in the huge stream of information, photos and videos that are flooding the internet today".
It's just sickening... :P
Authoritarianism needs to be fought tooth and nail.... And I am not just talking about Russia and China, though these states obviously pose major and immediate threats to our and their own citizen's freedom, but also about the US and Europe.
Romanian education minister announced today that children of Ukrainian refugees may continue their schooling in the Ukrainian-language schools of Romania (there are quite a few of them in the border counties).
Quote from: Que on March 03, 2022, 12:57:37 AM
The Russian version of the "big lie":
Russian schoolchildren to learn about war's 'necessity'
Russia's education ministry has announced that schoolchildren throughout the nation will be given a virtual lesson on "why the liberation mission in Ukraine is a necessity". The broadcasted instruction will take place at 12:00 Moscow time (09:00GMT) on Thursday.
Viewers will be taught "about the danger Nato represents to our country" and "why Russia stood up for the protection of the civilians of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics".
A statement on the ministry's Facebook page said children will also learn "how to distinguish the truth from lies in the huge stream of information, photos and videos that are flooding the internet today".
It's just sickening... :P
Sickening but nothing new, actually. We should always remember that the scelerate Putin is a KGB man, a typical product of the USSR, where relentless anti-westerm propaganda, including in schools, was a pillar of the regime. And not only in the USSR, I am old enough to remember the relentless anti-western propaganda in the Socialist Republic of Romania, including in schools.
Mariupol under siege: 'We are being completely cut off' (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60601235) (BBC)
And now Poetin said that the Western world is preparing and provoking a nuclear strike on Russia. When does this madness stop. And why does the Russian Orthodox Church keep silent? It says a lot about the so called Christian Church not to condemn Poetin's actions.
Quote from: "Harry" on March 03, 2022, 03:48:39 AM
why does the Russian Orthodox Church keep silent? It says a lot about the so called Christian Church not to condemn Poetin's actions.
Patriarch Kirill called opponents of war "forces of evil" and is fully supporting the scelerate Putin. He is not more Christian than the scelerate Putin is.
Estimates that the Russian strategy has moved from Plan A to B, and now possibly even C; C or D could imply 'just' obtaining a compromise, with a peace treaty and Crimea being accepted as Russian.
As regards religious groupings, the head of the Jewish community in Russia, otherwise thought of as a regime supporter, has condemned the invasion.
Quote from: Florestan on March 03, 2022, 04:01:16 AM
Patriarch Kirill called opponents of war "forces of evil" and is fully supporting the scelerate Putin. He is not more Christian than the scelerate Putin is.
Well he is one of the forces of Evil, by saying such a thing. In our church there is a decided Njet to Poetin and his war.
Quote from: "Harry" on March 03, 2022, 04:15:10 AM
In our church there is a decided Njet to Poetin and his war.
This should be the default position of any true Christian church whatever their denomination.
Reuters.com:
LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - The Estonian-owned cargo ship Helt sunk on Thursday off the Ukrainian port of Odessa after an explosion, the vessel's manager said.
Two crew members were in a life raft at sea while four others were unaccounted for, Igor Ilves, managing director of Tallinn-based manager Vista Shipping Agency, told Reuters.
Ilves said the vessel might have struck a mine. (Reporting by Jonathan Saul; editing by Jason Neely)
Quote from: T. D. on March 02, 2022, 06:49:03 PM
Fairly interesting BBC article with another fascinating photo (in addition to the Putin/Gerasimov/Shoigu pix posted above in the thread):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261
Let the psychoanalysts (armchair and otherwise) chime in on this one.
I'm thinking he's worried about something like this.
^ that, and he's a supposed germophobe/Covid-paranoid
Quote from: T. D. on March 02, 2022, 06:49:03 PM
Fairly interesting BBC article with another fascinating photo (in addition to the Putin/Gerasimov/Shoigu pix posted above in the thread):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/A718/production/_123467724_security.jpg)
In the days before the invasion, Russian TV broadcast a session of President Putin's 30-member security council
Let the psychoanalysts (armchair and otherwise) chime in on this one.
Thank you for that link; it will provide some very interesting and informative reading as to "who is who".
Re that photo and the early one posted: I'm surprised that he doesn't have a bullet-proof glass between him and them.
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 03, 2022, 05:52:34 AM
Thank you for that link; it will provide some very interesting and informative reading as to "who is who".
Re that photo and the early one posted: I'm surprised that he doesn't have a bullet-proof glass between him and them.
PD
He doesn't need one, they are probably scanned even through their pants for weapons. :D
He is clearly paranoid. Not even Stalin, let alone the Tsars, took such extreme cautions.
Quote from: Florestan on March 03, 2022, 06:01:37 AM
He doesn't need one, they are probably scanned even through their pants for weapons. :D
He is clearly paranoid. Not even Stalin, let alone the Tsars, took such extreme cautions.
I read that Shoigu goes on hunting and fishing trips with him...wonder whether that has changed or will be changing in the near future? We'll find out come spring or summer.
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 03, 2022, 06:24:40 AM
I read that Shoigu goes on hunting and fishing trips with him...wonder whether that has changed or will be changing in the near future? We'll find out come spring or summer.
One can only hope that Shoigu and / or Gerasimov are saner than the scelerate Putin --- but I wouldn't hold my breath on it. Heck, as Minister of Defense and Chief of General Staff respectively they certainly qualify as war criminals with respect to Ukraine and I doubt that an honest and thorough ICC inquiry will exonerate them.
Quote from: Florestan on March 03, 2022, 06:36:11 AM
One can only hope that Shoigu and / or Gerasimov are saner than the scelerate Putin --- but I wouldn't hold my breath on it. Heck, as Minister of Defense and Chief of General Staff respectively they certainly qualify as war criminals with respect to Ukraine and I doubt that an honest and thorough ICC inquiry will exonerate them.
They all need to be dropped off in Siberia and left for dead.
I've just made a temporary profile change, Mahler will return once Russia is defeated.
After learning that Shoigu is from Tuva, I was interested to read that Gerasimov is from Kazan' (capital of Tataria).
Wondered for a while if he could possibly be Tatar...could only find sketchy biographical info, but I figure Gerasimov is "ethnic Russian", not Tatar.
Quote from: LKB on March 03, 2022, 07:17:15 AM
I've just made a temporary profile change, Mahler will return once Russia is defeated.
Bravo and welcome to the club! In the face of blatant aggression, flagrant injustice and heinous war crimes we must all take a stand!
Quote from: T. D. on March 03, 2022, 07:21:05 AM
After learning that Shoigu is from Tuva, I was interested to read that Gerasimov is from Kazan' (capital of Tataria).
Wondered for a while if he could possibly be Tatar...could only find sketchy biographical info, but I figure Gerasimov is "ethnic Russian", not Tatar.
Their ethnicity is far less important than their apparently unwavering allegiance to the scelerate Putin.
One thing that I've been wondering about: What have each of you seen in terms of locally as to what kind and how much supplies/aid is being given to help the Ukrainians--in terms of food, clothing, etc.? Any sense?
This story of people and organizations trying to help people and their pets and zoo animals was heart-rending to read: https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-60593791
"How animals in Ukraine are being rescued during war" I'm glad that people are trying their best to help though.
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 03, 2022, 08:04:30 AM
One thing that I've been wondering about: What have each of you seen in terms of locally as to what kind and how much supplies/aid is being given to help the Ukrainians--in terms of food, clothing, etc.?
Bucharest is some hundred km away from the Ukrainian border so I haven't personally been able to see anything with my own eyes --- but Romanians in regions close(r) to the border have welcome refugees with open arms and organized admirably in order to shelter and feed them. Government stepped in too: border pass points have been, are and will remain open, the refugees may work without any permit for 9 months and their children may study in the Ukrainian-language schools of Romania. The most publicly vocal millionaire and football club owner (and a long-standing philanthropist too) took strong actions to help the refugees, heavily and mercilessly lambasting the scelerate Putin in the process. Several TV channels have organized public donations. The prevailing feeling in our country is one of solidarity with these unfortunate people and of implacable hatred against the scelerate Putin and the Russian aggression. The vast majority of Romanians stand with Ukraine unconditionally, will do our best to help the Ukrainian people and hope and pray for the scelerate Putin and the Russian army to be defeated.
Historically, Russians have never been much loved in Romania but I think these days Russophobia is at its highest since 1989. And rightly so.
Quote from: LKB on March 03, 2022, 07:17:15 AM
I've just made a temporary profile change, Mahler will return once Russia is defeated.
If Russia gets stopped and sanity and peace gets restored, Elgar & cross-feeder circuit will return.
Quote from: Que on March 03, 2022, 03:34:57 AM
Mariupol under siege: 'We are being completely cut off' (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60601235) (BBC)
Bear in mind that much of the information regarding Mariupol is unconfirmed (and potentially unconfirmable until the battle ends). But the situation there seems to have been an entirely avoidable humanitarian catastrophe.
The BBC (and other European media outlets) will obviously only quote pro-Ukrainian sources and Russian media will obviously only quote pro-Russian sources. But from a mixture of the two along with posts on social media, the following claims have been made:
- The city is primarily under attack from Donetsk People's Republic forces, with the Russian military in a support role.
- The city is primarily defended by the Ukrainian National Guard, rather than the regular Ukrainian military.
- The Russian military opened humanitarian corridors for several days during the siege of the city, but the National Guard forces established cordons along these corridors and turned back any civilians attempting to flee.
- The Russian military opened humanitarian corridors for several days during the siege of the city, but fighting outside the city remained too intense for civilians to flee.
- The Russian military opened humanitarian corridors for several days during the siege of the city, but DPR forces continued to shell the city anyway.
- National Guard forces entrenched themselves in civilian areas including apartment buildings, and are using civilians as human shields.
- DPR forces have made social media posts describing Ukrainians as dogs, cockroaches, etc. National Guard forces have made social media posts describing Russians as subhuman, vermin, etc. Both DPR and National Guard troops have also posted antisemitic and racist rants, the former targeting Zelensky specifically, the latter targeting foreign-born Ukrainian residents regarded as potential traitors (Mariupol is a city with a very large non-Ukrainian or Russian population, mostly Greek). (All of these are technically confirmed, but in the form of social media posts by individual fighters which are unlikely to represent anyone's views but their own.)
- Pursuant to this, the official National Guard twitter account posted images of fighters greasing bullets with pork fat specifically to wage "holy war" against Russian Muslim fighters. (Confirmed; condemned by Ukrainian government officials.)
- And as such, the current situation (only partially confirmed via satellite imagery and occasional social media posts): fierce house-to-house fighting between DPR and National Guard troops, dead and wounded bodies piling up in the streets with neither side offering humanitarian breaks to retrieve them; National Guard troops occupying civilian apartment blocks that in turn blown to pieces by Russian airstrikes; lynchings of civilians on suspicion of being Russian spies/saboteurs; Russian shelling has become indiscriminate; prisoners of war on both sides are being subjected to torture or execution. Civilians tend to feel they have been abandoned by the Ukrainian authorities and fear that Russian/DPR forces will massacre them.
All of this was completely avoidable. True, the likely alternative would have been a long siege of the city until the lack of electricity, heat, food and water forced it to surrender, and that would have still been bad. (That was the situation in, e.g., Kherson.) But Russia's failure or lack of desire to keep the DPR forces in line seems to have made the humanitarian catastrophe infinitely worse, and at least from my perspective—I'm Jewish, my family owes its continued existence in part to Soviet Union authorities, but also has pretty extensive experiences of antisemitism from Soviet
citizens—it's easy to read the situation as a war between rival fascist armies, with tens or hundreds of thousands of civilians caught in the crossfire.
(Putin and Lukashenko, incidentally: both big fans of Hitler. Most of the Ukrainian national guard's "Banderaist" paramilitary groups: also big Hitler fans. Between the pressure from both his right flank and the Russian invasion, Zelensky increasingly seems like the only sane man in this situation.)
Talks are still ongoing and I hope that a ceasefire in Mariupol is high on the agenda, and would be an initial Ukrainian demand. No evidence that this is the case though.
Another thing that has been confirmed: a large number of African, Asian and Middle Eastern students and workers with Ukrainian residency have been turned back when attempting to flee to Poland, on the grounds that they aren't Ukrainian citizens. Although some have reported experiencing racism from border guards on both sides (and a number of European politicians and authorities are now in hot water because of unwise comments along the lines of "this isn't an ordinary refugee crisis involving brown people, these are blonde blue-eyed people just like us, we have to let them in"), the overall situation appears to be more due to bureaucratic incompetence than malice. For example, a representative for some international students in the northern city of Sumy was advised by Ukrainian government officials to cross the border into Russia (???) which, even if the Russian army was not what they were trying to run away from, the city is completely surrounded by Russian forces, who have seized every highway that could theoretically provide an exit from the city.
Many of the stories have been less negative, with fleeing Ukrainians sharing food and water and transport etc with noncitizen refugees (since at this point it's a two to three day wait just to get through the border crossing) and international humanitarian aid organisations stepping in to the best of their ability. But overall it does signal yet another respect in which Western countries have essentially abandoned Ukraine. European countries evidently can airlift weapons into the country, but find it to be too much trouble to use those same aircraft to airlift civilians out of it.
Obviously, there is a flight stop in Ukranian airspace due to the fighting, also between airforces.
As of today, the UN estimates that 1 mio refugees have already left Ukraine. A couple days ago it was 880,000 to the EU, of which more than half went to Poland.
EU is apparently preparing to organize a staying permit for 3 years for them, including allowance for work and education. The possible, future estimate number has now gone up, from 5 mio to 7 mio. Among other things, there are already Ukranian communities in the EU countries, especially workers, who might contribute somewhat to their integration.
DK is so far preparing for 20,000, but potentially 50,000.
Events might change these figures. Today, an agreement was apparently made, that will allow 'refugee corridors' through Ukraine. Whether there'll be organized transport involved, is yet unknown, at least to me. Ukraine is sceptical as regards possible False Flag events though, that would stage 'Ukrainian atrocities'.
Worrying escalations: Kirgistan will apparently mobilize tomorrow and introduce martial law, and Kazakstan does military transports that might suggest later participation in the war.
Quote from: T. D. on March 03, 2022, 07:21:05 AM
After learning that Shoigu is from Tuva, I was interested to read that Gerasimov is from Kazan' (capital of Tataria).
Wondered for a while if he could possibly be Tatar...could only find sketchy biographical info, but I figure Gerasimov is "ethnic Russian", not Tatar.
Side note: at least some of the Tatars are Kazan because of a forced population move under Stalin from the Crimea.
The Muslim population of Crimea/southern Ukraine is mostly Tatar.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 03, 2022, 05:52:34 AM
Thank you for that link; it will provide some very interesting and informative reading as to "who is who".
Re that photo and the early one posted: I'm surprised that he doesn't have a bullet-proof glass between him and them.
PD
BTW, both of the photos I found so remarkable were stills taken from Russian TV broadcasts. Which raises interesting questions (that I can't even pretend to answer) about the Russian public's perceptions.
I rather agree with this comment from a former Finnish Prime Minister:
Vladimir Putin's has achieved "the opposite of what he wanted", the former Finnish prime minister has said, in a stark warning that highlights the difficulties now facing the Russian President one week into his invasion of Ukraine.
Despite claiming to be "liberating and de-Nazifying" Ukraine (claims much of the international community rejects), the Russian president has only cemented his position as a "global pariah" who has united almost every nation in its condemnation of his actions.
Alexander Stubb, who served as the Finnish PM from 2014-15, tweeted: "Putin has achieved in one week the exact opposite of what he wanted: i.e. the Europeanisation of Ukraine, revitalisation of the Transatlantic relationship, the rejuvenation of Nato, unity of the EU and a radical shift in support for Nato membership in Finland and Sweden."
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 03, 2022, 10:28:07 AM
Worrying escalations: Kirgistan will apparently mobilize tomorrow and introduce martial law, and Kazakstan does military transports that might suggest later participation in the war.
Both countries are Russian allies/proxies. If Russia is calling on them for aid, probably a sign that the war is somewhat falling apart, and ties in with the idea that Russian positions in Ukraine are weaker than they look.
Reportedly a second full day of negotiations was completed and some progress was made, with Russian and Ukrainian officials agreeing on humanitarian actions, but no sign of a ceasefire yet. On the other hand, also no major Russian offensives reported today (except for Enerhodar—for the fourth time—and, obviously, Mariupol, which continues to be extremely bloody, although some evidence suggests that the intensity of artillery/missile fire has reduced in the last couple of hours), and even some withdrawals by Russian/LPR forces from areas of Luhansk oblast—apparently not even due to military resistance, but due to nonviolent resistance from civilians.
It turns out that there are various interpretations of those Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan news - including that of Kazakhstan simply preparing to defend itself, or sending troops, perhaps secretly, to help Russia. Both countries are in a 'defense union' with Russia, but Kazakhstan has declared itself neutral in the Ukraine War & has some Western connections too.
The presented news above might be only rumours, though. Time will tell.
A nuclear power plant is on fire after Russian shelling. The video is being shown on CNN.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-a3092d8e476949ed7c55607a645a9154
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A spokesman for Europe's largest nuclear plant says the facility is on fire after Russia attacked the power station in the southern Ukrainian city of Enerhodar.
A government official tells The Associated Press elevated levels of radiation are being detected near the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which provides about 25% of the country's power generation.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the information has not yet been publicly released.
Plant spokesman Andriy Tuz told Ukrainian television that it is urgent to stop the fighting to put out the flames.
Enerhodar is a city on the Dnieper River that accounts for one-quarter of the country's power generation.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE.
At the moment the fire is most likely in an administrative building in the plant complex, several hundred meters from the actual reactors. The risk does not appear to be immediate loss of cooling/containment breach, but rather the likelihood that continued fighting in the plant complex will prevent first responders from arriving and cause the fire to spread out of control. There does not appear to be any risk of a Chernobyl situation, at least according to nuclear scientists, although they do emphasise that there is a wide range of "less dangerous than Chernobyl" situations that are still possible.
The claim that radiation levels are elevated also appears to be incorrect (according to a clarification by Andriy Tuz). Online monitoring gauges show a very slight increase but well within the normal margin of error, and probably attributable to the fire itself rather than any release of radioactive material.
(This is not to say it's good for nuclear plants to be on fire or whatever. Firing antitank missiles at any part of a nuclear plant is a phenomenally stupid idea, and, if there are civilian workers inside, probably also a war crime. It's more to say don't panic just yet.)
Twitter is currently alive with shouting and confusion. There are people expecting nuclear fallout at any moment, people claiming a leak is highly improbable, people claiming all sorts of things.
In line with what amw just posted:
The fighting seems to be around the entrances to the complex, thus not where the reactors are positioned inside, but it's not clear where the fire is relative to the reactors and whatever power is used for the cooling systems.
It seems firefighters have been kept from entering the complex by Russian troops.
This reactor has a different design from Chernobyl, supposedly better suited to contain leaks.
There is theoretically a live stream (on YouTube) from the power plant and a radiation gauge, updated live every ten minutes, but I haven't been able to access either one, probably due to an excess of traffic. Everything I'm hearing is passed on from an acquaintance who's watching Ukrainian TV and translating for me. (Andriy Tuz was on air about 20 minutes ago; he also apparently mentioned that firefighters had gained access to an administrative building. Unclear what happened to the Russian attackers but I assume they were pushed back.)
Some on Twitter is posting clips from the livestream. If I can find it again, I'll post the link.
Here's the link, although apparently the livestream has been shut down
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1499564768344035336
Quote from: vandermolen on March 03, 2022, 12:30:18 PM
I rather agree with this comment from a former Finnish Prime Minister:
Vladimir Putin's has achieved "the opposite of what he wanted", the former Finnish prime minister has said, in a stark warning that highlights the difficulties now facing the Russian President one week into his invasion of Ukraine.
Despite claiming to be "liberating and de-Nazifying" Ukraine (claims much of the international community rejects), the Russian president has only cemented his position as a "global pariah" who has united almost every nation in its condemnation of his actions.
Alexander Stubb, who served as the Finnish PM from 2014-15, tweeted: "Putin has achieved in one week the exact opposite of what he wanted: i.e. the Europeanisation of Ukraine, revitalisation of the Transatlantic relationship, the rejuvenation of Nato, unity of the EU and a radical shift in support for Nato membership in Finland and Sweden."
I think it's highly unlikely that this is about liberating and de-nazifying anything! It is about securing Russia's borders from NATO agression, it is about taking over and exploiting natural resources in the present day Ukraine.
Prof. Niall Ferguson says it's also about Russia not wanting Ukraine to become a successful democracy as this would show up Russia and its autocratic system of plundering oligarchs.
Quote from: amw on March 03, 2022, 05:06:33 PM
There is theoretically a live stream (on YouTube) from the power plant and a radiation gauge, updated live every ten minutes, but I haven't been able to access either one, probably due to an excess of traffic. Everything I'm hearing is passed on from an acquaintance who's watching Ukrainian TV and translating for me. (Andriy Tuz was on air about 20 minutes ago; he also apparently mentioned that firefighters had gained access to an administrative building. Unclear what happened to the Russian attackers but I assume they were pushed back.)
This will almost certainly result in Europe coming into this war, widening its scope. Somebody has to do something about that mad dog Putin. The botoxed, geriatric pygmy needs another "Bolshevik Revolution.
Quote from: Christabel on March 04, 2022, 12:19:40 AM
Prof. Niall Ferguson says it's also about Russia not wanting Ukraine to become a successful democracy as this would show up Russia and its autocratic system of plundering oligarchs.
I think that Ferguson is right.
Quote from: vandermolen on March 04, 2022, 12:35:48 AM
I think that Ferguson is right.
Ukraine without the Crimean peninsular is very poor. Hard to imagine it becoming a successful anything in the near future. The president of the Ukraine is not beyond reproach when it comes to plundering oligarchs.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/03/revealed-anti-oligarch-ukrainian-president-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy
The Russians have occupied that nuclear plant and the fire in the administrative-training building is out.
I think the danger of needing a "Cherenkov Florestan" avatar has been averted.
Nothing alarmist here, from www.ready.gov, last updated yesterday: Nuclear Explosion (https://www.ready.gov/nuclear-explosion)
Also remember Covid sticks around after a nuclear blast:
QuoteTry to maintain a distance of at least six feet between yourself and people who are not part of your household. If possible, wear a mask if you're sheltering with people who are not a part of your household.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 04, 2022, 12:44:35 AM
Ukraine without the Crimean peninsular is very poor. Hard to imagine it becoming a successful anything in the near future. The president of the Ukraine is not beyond reproach when it comes to plundering oligarchs.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/03/revealed-anti-oligarch-ukrainian-president-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy
According to the world bank, the GDP per capita is about $10,000 for Russia, but only $4,000 for Ukraine. (By comparison, the U.S. is at about $60,000) I don't think Russia has any worries about being shown up by Ukraine. I think Putin's motivation is what he pretty openly says it is, to reclaim territory that is rightly (in his view) part of Russia, to restore Russia's prestige in the world, and to avoid having bordering countries that are not in Russia's sphere of influence.
Russian anger as Senator Lindsey Graham calls for Putin's assassination (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60621796)
Doesn't this violate Twitter's terms of service?
Quote from: Todd on March 04, 2022, 06:58:41 AM
Russian anger as Senator Lindsey Graham calls for Putin's assassination (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60621796)
Doesn't this violate Twitter's terms of service?
I should think so.
What a dumb ass... there are probably a billion people around the world hoping Vlad the Mad encounters some high-velocity lead poisoning, but for a sitting US senator to
publicly call for it is the height of idiocy, even for a Trumpkin.
The Ukes have foiled 3 assassination attempts by Russian/Chechen elements. There are apparently double agents in the FSB according to spokesNazi druggies defending Mr. Z.
I appreciate Lindsey Graham for his weathervane-ish dexterity. No "Putin! Putin!" for him.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 04, 2022, 06:48:21 AM
I think Putin's motivation is what he pretty openly says it is, to reclaim territory that is rightly (in his view) part of Russia, to restore Russia's prestige in the world, and to avoid having bordering countries that are not in Russia's sphere of influence.
It's mainly sphere of influence or rather buffer zones without NATO missiles and the eastern Ukrainian regions. Putin already had the Crimea and would probably have been able to secure the Donezk and Lugansk regions without an outright attack on the Ukraine although the ongoing skirmishes there were certainly a major reason (and it's not a mere pretext, despite the exaggerated language of De-nazification and preventing genocide).
A neutral Ukraine would be acceptable to Russia, a NATO-aligned never will be (cf. the Cuba crisis or imagine Canada becoming a Chinese satellite). And I read a comment by someone very familiar with Russia who thinks that something (such as preparation for "Western" military bases or worse in Ukraine) must have happened in the last three months because the outright attack on a people mostly perceived as "brothers" is a desperate measure and it's also a bad season for a military campaign. But this guy thinks that Putin apparently felt such pressure that he could not wait another month. He is not a mad dog, but obviously felt badly cornered and thus reacted accordingly.
The terrible thing is that there seems no real way out. After a war, Ukraine now has a larger incentive to join the West/NATO than before, even if the country is split somehow, the Western half will not want to become a Russian satellite or neutral. So the needed buffer zone will not appear.
And I am not sure if those wishing Putin gone would be happy with typical successors.
Concerning Zelensky, that's the Ukrainian version; their information isn't always correct.
But I've wondered if there's military research on nano-drones, almost invisible, going on, for such projects (as well as surveillance etc.). They'll probably exist in the future. Just a little thought of mine.
Quote from: Jo498 on March 04, 2022, 07:25:36 AMcf. the Cuba crisis or imagine Canada becoming a Chinese satellite
John Mearsheimer has used the same exact same arguments, correctly, when explaining why liberal hegemony is dead, and how the world is moving to more traditional multi-polar balance of power international politics.
But Americans are good guys, so you know, it's different in such cases, real or imagined.
Quote from: Jo498 on March 04, 2022, 07:25:36 AM
It's mainly sphere of influence or rather buffer zones without NATO missiles and the eastern Ukrainian regions. Putin already had the Crimea and would probably have been able to secure the Donezk and Lugansk regions without an outright attack on the Ukraine although the ongoing skirmishes there were certainly a major reason (and it's not a mere pretext, despite the exaggerated language of De-nazification and preventing genocide).
A neutral Ukraine would be acceptable to Russia, a NATO-aligned never will be (cf. the Cuba crisis or imagine Canada becoming a Chinese satellite). And I read a comment by someone very familiar with Russia who thinks that something (such as preparation for "Western" military bases or worse in Ukraine) must have happened in the last three months because the outright attack on a people mostly perceived as "brothers" is a desperate measure and it's also a bad season for a military campaign. But this guy thinks that Putin apparently felt such pressure that he could not wait another month. He is not a mad dog, but obviously felt badly cornered and thus reacted accordingly.
The terrible thing is that there seems no real way out. After a war, Ukraine now has a larger incentive to join the West/NATO than before, even if the country is split somehow, the Western half will not want to become a Russian satellite or neutral. So the needed buffer zone will not appear.
And I am not sure if those wishing Putin gone would be happy with typical successors.
There's a serious problem with water in the Crimea which is stopping the Russians exploiting the geological resources. The canal which feeds the region has its source deep in the Ukraine. Ukraine has blocked the canal since 2014. I think that opening up the canal is a significant reason for the Russian campaign. However this pans out, I expect they will fight hard to ensure that they keep the Crimea and that the canal is never blocked up again.
Tucker just cracked. He blames Biden and Harris for being stupid. He doesn't blame himself for anything. Whatta guy!
Quote from: drogulus on March 04, 2022, 09:03:30 AM
Tucker just cracked. He blames Biden and Harris for being stupid. He doesn't blame himself for anything. Whatta guy!
You mean the Faux News moron? [I don't watch TV]
You actually watch that drivel?
Putin appears to have reminded the world what liberal hegemony is for. Great Job!!
Mulitipole Viktor Orban,
rattus hungaricus, is the model, right Tucker? Can you be a white christian nationalist and multi, too? Didn't the Axis powers kind of have a problem of hating each other as much as their enemies? Defectors are poor cooperators, history says. But, if they want to be unfruitful and multiply, let them.
Quote from: T. D. on March 04, 2022, 09:12:55 AM
You mean the Faux News moron? [I don't watch TV]
You actually watch that drivel?
I get it second hand.
Quote from: Jo498 on March 04, 2022, 07:25:36 AM
It's mainly sphere of influence or rather buffer zones without NATO missiles and the eastern Ukrainian regions. Putin already had the Crimea and would probably have been able to secure the Donezk and Lugansk regions without an outright attack on the Ukraine although the ongoing skirmishes there were certainly a major reason (and it's not a mere pretext, despite the exaggerated language of De-nazification and preventing genocide).
A neutral Ukraine would be acceptable to Russia, a NATO-aligned never will be (cf. the Cuba crisis or imagine Canada becoming a Chinese satellite). And I read a comment by someone very familiar with Russia who thinks that something (such as preparation for "Western" military bases or worse in Ukraine) must have happened in the last three months because the outright attack on a people mostly perceived as "brothers" is a desperate measure and it's also a bad season for a military campaign. But this guy thinks that Putin apparently felt such pressure that he could not wait another month. He is not a mad dog, but obviously felt badly cornered and thus reacted accordingly.
The terrible thing is that there seems no real way out. After a war, Ukraine now has a larger incentive to join the West/NATO than before, even if the country is split somehow, the Western half will not want to become a Russian satellite or neutral. So the needed buffer zone will not appear.
And I am not sure if those wishing Putin gone would be happy with typical successors.
"The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know."
Olaf Scholz says ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder should resign from Russian firms (https://www.dw.com/en/olaf-scholz-says-ex-chancellor-gerhard-schr%C3%B6der-should-resign-from-russian-firms/a-61007011)
A possible posh casualty of war.
Biden weighing sanctions on India over Russian military stockpiles (https://thehill.com/policy/international/596693-biden-weighing-sanctions-on-india-over-russian-military-stockpiles)
The reckless use of sanctions and threats of sanctions in this war will erode the effectiveness of the measures. Indeed, economic pressure from the US is already weakening in this crisis:
Mexico declines to impose economic sanctions on Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/mexicos-president-says-will-not-take-any-economic-sanctions-against-russia-2022-03-01/)
Even if Mexico ends up doing the bidding of the Yanquis, cracks in the system are appearing. And punitive steps against Mexico, if any, would exclude the oil sector since Mexico is the second largest source of imported oil. I mean, the US still buys Russian oil.
https://www.youtube.com/v/ca4j1Fr8gWA&t=1s
I think severe sanctions are far less reckless than, say, a no fly zone. The economic cost will be high. Everyone understands that.
Biden is responsible for NATO unity more than any other earthly being besides Putin himself. Everyone understands that, too. Ask the Germans.
Should we be unwilling to exert pressure on India? That's an interesting viewpoint. Is there a reason? Will they hate us ever after? Gosh, this foreign policy thing is so hard. I never knew it was so complicated.
Quote from: Todd on March 04, 2022, 09:53:54 AM
Even if Mexico ends up doing the bidding of the Yanquis, cracks in the system are appearing. And punitive steps against Mexico, if any, would exclude the oil sector since Mexico is the second largest source of imported oil. I mean, the US still buys Russian oil.
Everyone still buys Russian oil. Even the EU's SWIFT ban doesn't include banks which facilitate oil and gas business.
The sanctions will leak. Hypocrisy will rear its head. In movies perfect heroes battle perfect villains. We must contain our disappointment that real life is not like that.
Quote from: drogulus on March 04, 2022, 10:10:30 AM
Should we be unwilling to exert pressure on India? That's an interesting viewpoint. Is there a reason? Will they hate us ever after? Gosh, this foreign policy thing is so hard. I never knew it was so complicated.
We should exert a lot of pressure on India. Though it would help if the US would stop cosying up to Pakistan, which has been an insane and fruitless idea to begin with.
Russia supported India against China, but India will soon discover that allegiances have shifted for Russia.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 04, 2022, 07:58:27 AM
There's a serious problem with water in the Crimea which is stopping the Russians exploiting the geological resources. The canal which feeds the region has its source deep in the Ukraine. Ukraine has blocked the canal since 2014. I think that opening up the canal is a significant reason for the Russian campaign. However this pans out, I expect they will fight hard to ensure that they keep the Crimea and that the canal is never blocked up again.
Some of the first Russian Ministry of Defence videos showed water flowing through a canal, purportedly the Dnipro-Crimea canal, which had previously been blocked off by Ukraine. I think this and not the hydroelectric plant is probably the main reason they took Nova Kakhovka on the second day of the assault.
Once Mariupol falls they will also control the entire Sea of Azov coastline; I believe Ukrainian naval bases in Mariupol and Berdyansk (already under Russian control) had previously kept Russian vessels from using the sea entirely. If the Russians are expecting a ceasefire and peace agreement within the next few days, the outright assault on Mariupol rather than siege makes sense from a military point of view; the city could not withstand a siege, but it would probably take a couple of weeks under siege conditions before it would be forced to surrender. Destroying the city's infrastructure and defenders speeds that timeline up and allows its capture to become a "fact on the ground" prior to any peace agreement.
The other probable goal is the encirclement of the large number of Ukrainian forces dug in on the front line in Donetsk—some sources claim 50,000 troops. Russian units on the "Crimean front" are reportedly pushing north from Mariupol and northeast from Enerhodar towards the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia highway (N15), and on the "Kharkiv front" are pushing towards the strategic town of Izyum for control of the Slovyansk-Kharkiv highway (M03). If successful this would leave the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk highway (E50) as the sole land evacuation corridor for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and allow Russia to threaten to eliminate them entirely unless its demands are acceded to.
That said, I think success in the latter endeavour is pretty unlikely: Russia seems to have run into tremendous logistical difficulties supplying the ~150km line from the Belarus/Ukraine border to the outskirts of Kiev. From the Russia/Ukraine border to Izyum is also ~150km. Any further advances would be unlikely to hold due to the minor problem of soldiers running out of food and ammunition.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 04, 2022, 10:28:56 AM
Everyone still buys Russian oil. Even the EU's SWIFT ban doesn't include banks which facilitate oil and gas business.
Was also amused to see American nuclear companies lobbying for a sanctions carve-out to allow them to continue to import Russian uranium. And Shell has reportedly acquired a Russian gas company. War is evidently good for business.
Quote from: Que on March 04, 2022, 10:54:57 AMRussia supported India against China, but India will soon discover that allegiances have shifted for Russia.
Which is why sanctioning India is foolish.
Quote from: amw on March 04, 2022, 11:00:32 AMWar is evidently good for business.
An outrageous assertion.
Quote from: Todd on March 04, 2022, 11:03:51 AM
Which is why sanctioning India is foolish.
Absolutely.
India will grow closer to the US regardless. The MIGs will fall apart and not be replaced by Russian weapons. Their Kuznetsov class carrier is a piece of shit. The Russian Kuznetsov is a piece of shit.
Concerning apparently shifty alliances, a direct participation by the Belarus military in the invasion is now being downgraded a lot as a possibility. That was quite a change.
The relevant, bigger companies here in DK were called to a meeting at the 'Ministry of Energy & Industry' to prepare in a very concrete way for a possible closure of Russian gas deliveries. A closure would then likely be announced 72 hours ahead.
That is, this meeting took place 14 days ago, and therefore 5 days before the invasion; a guess would be that such preparations are being made in most EU countries.
Also, it is being estimated that the EU could manage without any Russian gas from before next winter.
Quote from: Jo498 on March 04, 2022, 07:25:36 AM
And I am not sure if those wishing Putin gone would be happy with typical successors.
Wouldn't an election have to be called sooner or later? Would this put someone like Nevalny in greater or lesser danger?
Maybe Kasparov could try again.
I see the next "election" for Putin is scheduled for March 2024. Perhaps they could have a protectorate until then while they try to roll back Putin's corrupt and self serving electoral legislation.
from 2015:
Three Scenarios For A Succession In Russia (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-succession-scenarios/26899859.html)
"For a decade and a half, Vladimir Putin has sat at the top of a closed, hierarchical, and personality-based political system that allows for no competition.
As a result, opinion polls in Russia routinely show the public sees "no alternative" to Putin's leadership.
So what would happen in Russia if Putin suddenly and without warning left the political stage? Over the last few days, we have seen the anxiety that even the rumor of such an event can produce in Russia and around the world. If Putin is the guarantor of stability in Russia, then does a scenario without Putin automatically imply instability -- even violent instability?
The Constitutional ScenarioFormally, of course, Russia has a constitution and a process for handling a president's incapacity. Article 92 of the Russian Constitution states that if the president is unable to fulfill the duties of the office -- although the process for declaring him incapacitated is unclear -- the prime minister would become acting president and a new presidential election would be held within three months.
The acting president would not have the power to disband the Duma, schedule a referendum, or alter the constitution.
Under Russian election law, each party represented in the State Duma -- United Russia, the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, and A Just Russia -- would have the right to nominate a candidate. Other parties would have to scramble to assemble the required 100,000 signatures and get them approved by the Central Election Commission in such a tight time frame.
So if Putin unexpectedly left the scene and the constitution were followed to the letter, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev would return to the Kremlin and a competitive election would take place in three months.
The Consensus ScenarioOf course, such a smooth and legal transition of power is unlikely in Russia.
In Soviet times, political heavyweights wrestled behind the scenes until a successor emerged through some unfathomable communist alchemy.
More recently, when President Boris Yeltsin decided to retire, political insiders reached a consensus and produced the unimaginable candidacy of Vladimir Putin as his successor. They then used a combination of their financial, administrative, and media resources to get him elected.
Yeltsin's inner circle, despite its divisions, had the benefit of time in making its decision. In addition, they also had the experience of reaching a similar crucial consensus during the period around the 1996 presidential election, when the major oligarchs agreed to work together to reelect the ailing and increasingly unpopular Yeltsin.
The Conflict ScenarioBut what if consensus can't be reached?
Under Putin, the political system has become more personalized and centered around the president himself, who has balanced conflicting parties. And he has almost certainly stifled all discussion of what could or should happen in a post-Putin era.
But the divisions in Putin's inner circle, always latent, have become more manifest with the Ukraine crisis and have intensified since the February 27 assassination of opposition figure Boris Nemtsov.
"Now the conflict between the clans has become very seriously intense," says journalist and analyst Raf Shakirov. "It is obvious that different groups are pushing for different paths."
The main fault line, he says, is between "hawks" who have become ascendant due to the Ukraine crisis and Russia's showdown with the West and a "liberal group" responsible for the economy who would prefer a thaw at home and a rapprochement abroad.
The former group, Shakirov says, will probably fight fiercely in any transition to preserve their primacy. "This group understands that for them any normalization would mean, not the end of the world, but a loss of position," Shakirov says. "They cannot risk the loss of the almost unlimited power that they have now."
Likewise, political analyst Marat Guelman sees conflict as the likely scenario. These are "people who have tasted lawlessness, who already feel that they have the right to break the law, to kill," he says in reference to the Kremlin hard-liners."
Concerning Navalny and Kasparov, I don't think either of them would succeed, definitely not Kasparov; they are icons of the West and some young Russians, but not among the elder generations. Of course, just my rather uneducated 2 cents. A new leader would probably have to be either moderate, or a a different nationalist than Navalny, with some ressources in the political system. Navalny is seen as a Western asset by many, due to his friendly connections to the US, previous holidays in California, etc.
I've always wondered how Grigory Yavlinsky and Yabloko could recede so much into the dark, even before the authoritarian tendencies really began. But haven't studied why. They seem to be sensible folks, but maybe they were too much associated with the 90s and the West. Nowadays the party is being harassed, of course, and probably without chances. Yavlinsky publicly denounced any war, before it began. Btw, I once sold a newspaper to him, from a tiny tourist kiosk here in Copenhagen, when he visited.
As on the 1st of March, 80,000 had signed their protest against the war
https://eng.yabloko.ru/the-fifth-day-of-the-war-with-ukraine/
https://eng.yabloko.ru/
Huge antiwar protest in Prague this evening. (https://twitter.com/bibalukas/status/1499804627495264262) Zelenskyy addressed the crowd via a video call – he did more of these in different European cities.
Quote from: Rinaldo on March 04, 2022, 12:11:31 PM
Huge antiwar protest in Prague this evening. (https://twitter.com/bibalukas/status/1499804627495264262) Zelenskyy addressed the crowd via a video call – he did more of these in different European cities.
I understand that even President Zeman has made hardliner statements about the invasion. The demonstrations in Prague have been very impressive; a good initiative, if they showed him on two screens ... in Copenhagen, the sound at demonstrations wasn't designed for big gatherings.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 04, 2022, 12:04:31 PMConcerning Navalny and Kasparov, I don't think neither of them would succeed, definitely not Kasparov
Quote from: Garry KasparovRussia should be thrown back into the Stone Age to make sure that the oil and gas industry and any other sensitive industries that are vital for survival of the regime cannot function without Western technological support
I don't know Russian politics, but I doubt that most Russians, even if they detest Putin, would agree with this sentiment.
I think first Putin has to be removed before a new leader is installed, so maybe finish step one first.
Should have posted a month ago, but, eh:
Biden's CIA Director Doesn't Believe Biden's Story about Ukraine (http://www.defenddemocracy.press/bidens-cia-director-doesnt-believe-bidens-story-about-ukraine/)
Putin has wrecked Russia for at least a decade. His successor will have to try to figure out how to restore the country, and it might occur to the new leader that peaceful cooperation is the better choice, even if it's not the way it's usually done there.
Quote from: Todd on March 04, 2022, 12:40:31 PM
Should have posted a month ago, but, eh:
Biden's CIA Director Doesn't Believe Biden's Story about Ukraine (http://www.defenddemocracy.press/bidens-cia-director-doesnt-believe-bidens-story-about-ukraine/)
It's an old story I've read many times. Russians of all stripes felt humiliated during the Yeltsin years when NATO expanded into the former Warsaw Pact countries. Indeed, they
felt that way, and they have even stronger
feelings about ownership of their lovely Ukraine. That isn't the same thing as what Putin is doing with his fucking
feelings, which is killing thousands of Russian speaking Ukrainians.
Charlie Sykes: "It would be a great troll move to use all the yachts comfiscated from oligarchs to house Ukrainian refugees"
https://www.youtube.com/v/VP2wn4EytSY
Humiliation comes in different forms.
Quote from: drogulus on March 04, 2022, 02:56:26 PM
https://www.youtube.com/v/VP2wn4EytSY
Humiliation comes in different forms.
Wow, that's very brave of him especially considering news today of severe jail (up to 50 years) for "false news" of the invasion!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-introduce-jail-terms-spreading-fake-information-about-army-2022-03-04/
Sauli Niinistö, the president of Finland, has met president Biden in the White House. Defence partnership between Finland and the USA will be strengthened.
https://yle.fi/news/3-12345177
This surprised me:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-05/singapore-to-sanction-russia-in-almost-unprecedented-move
Singapore's government will impose unilateral sanctions against Russia, a move which a former diplomat said was the first time in decades that the city-state was censuring a foreign nation without backing from the United Nations Security Council.
Sanctions include imposition of export controls on items that can be used as weapons, targeted financial measures on designated Russian banks and restrictions on cryptocurrency transactions that may be used to circumvent financial sanctions, according to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Saturday.
The measures also ban Singapore's financial institutions from providing services that would aid Russia's central bank.
Quote from: 71 dB on March 04, 2022, 04:14:05 PM
Sauli Niinistö, the president of Finland, has met president Biden in the White House. Defence partnership between Finland and the USA will be strengthened.
https://yle.fi/news/3-12345177
I saw the press / photo op after the meeting was over. He seems like an impressive person. Since you aren't in NATO (wouldn't THAT drive Putain crazy?), anything that strengthens our relationship can only be good.
8)
What if the 40 mile column is a feint? The real action is in the south, and the Ukes weaken the most critical front by defending Kyiv. The key is Odessa and then up the river on both sides, resupplied from the sea. It's just a thought.
The idea of the threat based on an advance from the South (which has proceeded relatively quickly) has been expressed by pundits since the start of the war.
I read an interesting story today about the rail network's importance to Russia:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/how-ukraine-s-rail-network-threw-russia-s-military-off-track
A Russian businessman has put a $1 million bounty on Vladimir Putin's head, calling for military officers to arrest him as a war criminal (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-businessman-puts-1-million-bounty-on-putins-head-2022-3)
"I promise to pay $1,000,000 to the officer(s) who, complying with their constitutional duty, arrest(s) Putin as a war criminal under Russian and international laws," said crypto investor and California-based businessman Alex Konanykhin in a Facebook post on Wednesday.
Konanykhin claimed that Putin had violated the Russian constitution by "eliminating free elections" and "murdering his opponents."
"As an ethnic Russian and a Russia citizen, I see it as my moral duty to facilitate the denazification of Russia. I will continue my assistance to Ukraine in its heroic efforts to withstand the onslaught of Putin's Orda," Konanykhin said, using the Russian word for "horde."
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 04, 2022, 06:14:41 PM
I saw the press / photo op after the meeting was over. He seems like an impressive person.
Niinistö's wife is a poet.
BTW Konanykhin better add one or two zeroes to his bounty money. An assassin would need some million dollar tips to even get within shooting range.
Russia appears to have no way out as Putin goes 'all in' (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russia-appears-to-have-no-way-out-as-putin-goes-all-in-ukraine)
Any thoughts how this is all going to end? ::)
Ukraine defeated with its cities in ruins and millions of refugees? Russia isolated and politically and economically thrown back to the 1950's?
IMO the next challenge for the West will be, apart from adapting militarily and economically to the new situation, to play hardball with China. Not only to prevent China from throwing an econmic lifeline to Putin, but also to nip any further expansionist aspirations in the bud. India has to be won over as an ally (dump Pakistan!), Japan has to be rearmed. We are witnessing, after decades of gradual changes, a major geopolitical shift.
Will this event bring the US back to its senses or will it descend further into domestic political chaos? NATO will hold, but it seems we Europeans will to a large extent be left to our own devices.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 04, 2022, 06:14:41 PM
I saw the press / photo op after the meeting was over. He seems like an impressive person. Since you aren't in NATO (wouldn't THAT drive Putain crazy?), anything that strengthens our relationship can only be good.
8)
Niinistö has got a very presidential
habitus, sometimes almost to a comical measures. He is a competent president without serious flaws. He is least popular in Finland among lefty intellectuals while extremely popular among the right-wingers. Since the Overton Window in Finland is different from the USA, the right-wingers in Finland are perhaps even to the
left of Biden and Bernie Sanders would be a moderate centrist in Finland. So, a right wing president of Finland (Niinistö) is to the left of a left-wing president of the USA (Biden). :P
Attacking Ukraine has been very counter-productive for Putin in regards of keeping Sweden and Finland out of NATO.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 04, 2022, 12:15:59 PMI understand that even President Zeman has made hardliner statements about the invasion.
Yeah. For years, he's been quite the Russian asset. I guess the rats are jumping ship, although in his case, vengefulness is a key factor – seems like he was duped by Moscow about the Russian's not launching an invasion.
Quote from: 71 dB on March 05, 2022, 01:31:47 AM
Attacking Ukraine has been very counter-productive for Putin in regards of keeping Sweden and Finland out of NATO.
Indeed. Provocating Putin by joining NATO cannot be much of a concern anymore..
Swedish defence minister calls Russian violation of airspace 'unacceptable' (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-armed-forces-says-russian-fighter-jets-violated-swedish-airspace-2022-03-02/)
There are quite a few commentators that blame NATO expansion for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I'm not so sure... Without NATO expansion we might have witnessed a Russian invasion of the Baltic states years ago...
And Putin is not invading the Ukraine because it wants to join NATO, but because it doesn't want to be part Russia sphere of influence a sa vasal state. Putin's agression is IMO the direct result of the Ukrainian revolution of 2014, not of NATO expansion. Putin thinks that the Ukraine belongs to Russia and he doesn't allow it to go its separate way.
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 02:28:20 AM
There are quite a few commentators that blame NATO expansion for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I have repeatedly said it before and I will always say it: The scelerate Putin's complaint about the Baltic States, Poland and Romania joining NATO is exactly and precisely like an inveterate rapist's complaint about his former victims being put under 24/7 police protection.
As for those
useful idiots commentators, I have two questions for them. How come that, given the opportunity, each and every Eastern European country bordering, or being part of, the former USSR joined NATO by their own choice? How come that not a single one of them chose to remain in Russia's sphere of influence?
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 12:54:32 AM
Any thoughts how this is all going to end? ::)
It's the beginning of the end for the scelerate Putin and his regime. An overconfident, hubris-filled aggressive dictator grossly miscalculated. Nothing new under the sun, actually.
Quem Deus perdere vult, prius dementat.
Unfortunately, his downfall will come at the price of much suffering and destruction.
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 04:35:13 AM
It's the beginning of the end for the scelerate Putin and his regime. An overconfident, hubris-filled aggressive dictator grossly miscalculated. Nothing new under the sun, actually. Quem Deus perdere vult, prius dementat.
Unfortunately, his downfall will come at the price of much suffering and destruction.
I hope you are right about Putin's downfall.
But at the moment he seems to try to pull off a Stalin-act.... Will the Russian establishment let him?
I was surprised that, as I read, the Duma passed legislation making it a criminal offense punishable by substantial prison time to criticize the war. Up until now they have not resorted to such tactics, and have relied on flooding the field with propaganda and disinformation. Apparently that's not enough now. How are Russians to believe this is about "denazification" of Ukraine when their own government us using the fascist playbook?
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 04:43:16 AM
I hope you are right about Putin's downfall.
But at the moment he seems to try to pull off a Stalin-act.... Will the Russian establishment let him?
This is the question.
I think the red line is the nuclear option.
The Duma vote was unanimous, btw. Hit the headlines over 24 hours ago.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 05, 2022, 04:56:18 AM
I was surprised that, as I read, the Duma passed legislation making it a criminal offense punishable by substantial prison time to criticize the war.
Knowing the history of the USSR and of the Socialist Republic of Romania, I was not.
The Duma is not a genuine parliament by any stretch of imagination. It's an echo chamber of the scelerate Putin.
Enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is an act of war, says Putin.
It's just a matter of time and we're all in, Pute keeps escalating.
Quote from: Herman on March 05, 2022, 05:49:45 AM
Enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine is an act of war, says Putin.
It's just a matter of time and we're all in, Pute keeps escalating.
Do you believe WW3 has already begun? I ask because I'm genuinely interested in your opinion. Personally I hope not but I am not sure.
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 12:54:32 AM
IMO the next challenge for the West will be, apart from adapting militarily and economically to the new situation, to play hardball with China.
What does "play hardball with China" mean? And which states can play hardball? Even if Germany rearms, Europe will not have sufficient hard power to have any effect in that realm - which is critical in addressing security concerns in the South China Sea and East China Sea, as well as the Strait of Malacca - and whatever soft power Europeans may think they may possess won't amount to much, if anything. Being a large market is one thing, but China has de facto control over some specialized economic factors of production as well as massive production capacity, and quasi-captive markets and economic partners due to the BRI - including right into Europe. Despite an obvious belief in The West that The West is more beneficent, etc, there are reasons why BRI has so many takers, among them the predatory, destructive, exploitative behaviors of The West. China certainly faces challenges that can be exploited for strategic purposes, but it presents an entirely different challenge than Russia. Not incidentally, it may become necessary to partner with, of all countries, Russia in dealing with China.
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 02:28:20 AMIndeed. Provocating Putin by joining NATO cannot be much of a concern anymore..
Incorrect. Best to live by the old adage that Russia is never as strong as she seems, Russia is never as weak as she seems.
And yes, the expansion of NATO is one of the original causes of the current situation. The West went back on its agreement with the Soviet Union as it collapsed. In addition to various foreign policy academics, practical men like former Secretary of Defense William Perry even acknowledged that expansion helped precipitate Russian actions. There is a very good chance that many people will choose, perhaps willfully, to not learn any lessons from the crisis and instead will adopt more aggressive outlooks, leading to conclusions that The West needs to play hardball.
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 12:54:32 AMAny thoughts how this is all going to end? ::)
I would think some type of treaty or other agreement, provided The West does not pursue foolish aggressive tactics including direct military action - eg, No Fly Zones.
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 05:55:36 AM
Do you believe WW3 has already begun? I ask because I'm genuinely interested in your opinion. Personally, I hope not but I am not sure.
No. I think a new cold war has begun though. For WW3, Russia would have to attack one of the big European countries or America directly. Now it's saber rattling and attacking an Eastern bloc country. It would have to be a major escalation to get one of the big western powers to fight militarily which gives Russia quite a bit of free reign to attack these poor people, unfortunately.
Quote from: Todd on March 05, 2022, 06:00:01 AM
The West went back on its agreement with the Soviet Union as it collapsed.
What agreements did "the West" conclude with the Soviet Union?
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 06:04:30 AM
What agreements did "the West" conclude with the Soviet Union?
See
The Great Delusion. Also, hundreds of other sources.
Quote from: relm1 on March 05, 2022, 06:03:55 AM
No. I think a new cold war has begun though. For WW3, Russia would have to attack one of the big European countries or America directly.
You think that Russia attacking an Eastern European NATO country will not automatically trigger WW3?
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 06:07:19 AM
You think that Russia attacking an Eastern European NATO country will not automatically trigger WW3?
Paper Warns NATO Might Lack Will to Defend Baltics (https://www.ausa.org/news/paper-warns-nato-might-lack-will-defend-baltics)
It is from 2018, so it is stale now. In today's ultra-hawkish environment, where everyone is keen to play hardball, The West may end up nuking Moscow if tanks roll into Vilnius. Or not.
Quote from: Todd on March 05, 2022, 06:06:17 AM
See The Great Delusion. Also, hundreds of other sources.
Ah, yes,
The Great Delusion and hundreds of other sources. How foolish of me not to think about it. Thanks, I've seen the light now.
Quote from: Todd on March 05, 2022, 06:13:43 AM
Paper Warns NATO Might Lack Will to Defend Baltics (https://www.ausa.org/news/paper-warns-nato-might-lack-will-defend-baltics)
Call me a hopeless naive but I trust Antony Blinken more than I trust a half-page obscure article on an obscure website.
Moreover and more important, this line:
"Baltic allies' culpability in instigating the crisis or conflict would likely dramatically reduce allied political will to defend the region.tells me that that half-page obscure article on an obscure webiste is actually a piece of Russian propaganda. Didn't the scelerate Putin just recently tell us that it's Ukraine which instigated the conflict?
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 06:30:45 AM
Call me a hopeless naive but I trust Antony Blinken more than I trust a half-page obscure article on an obscure website.
Feel free to trust Blinken as much as you wish.
Today: Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-western-sanctions-are-akin-declaration-war-2022-03-05/)
2018: It's time we saw economic sanctions for what they really are – war crimes (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/economic-sanctions-north-korea-syria-hospital-supplies-a8168321.html)
Quote from: Todd on March 05, 2022, 06:38:31 AM
Feel free to trust Blinken as much as you wish.
Are you telling me I should not trust a US Secretary of State announcing the US will fulfill their official commitments and defend their official allies?
Also, please see my edit.
Quote from: Todd on March 05, 2022, 06:44:10 AM
Today: Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-western-sanctions-are-akin-declaration-war-2022-03-05/)
2018: It's time we saw economic sanctions for what they really are – war crimes (https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/economic-sanctions-north-korea-syria-hospital-supplies-a8168321.html)
So what do you suggest? That "the West" acquiesce to whatever the scelerate Putin demands in the name of preserving peace?
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 06:44:44 AM
Are you telling me I should not trust a US Secretary of State announcing the US will fulfill their official commitments and defend their official allies?
Feel free to trust Blinken as much as you wish.
Also, feel free to think that the Association of the United States Army website is Russian propaganda.
Quote from: Todd on March 05, 2022, 06:47:53 AM
feel free to think that the Association of the United States Army website is Russian propaganda.
Do you really believe that the Baltic states will instigate a crisis or conflict with Russia? I don't want a hundred sources, I want a simple yes or no answer.
Quote from: T. D. on March 05, 2022, 05:00:03 AM
The Duma vote was unanimous, btw. Hit the headlines over 24 hours ago.
Puppets do as the puppeteer directs.
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 06:44:44 AM
Are you telling me I should not trust a US Secretary of State announcing the US will fulfill their official commitments and defend their official allies?
Also, please see my edit.
The article was written in 2018. Remember who was then POTUS and his opinion of NATO and defending allies?
Quote from: JBS on March 05, 2022, 07:12:50 AM
The article was written in 2018. Remember who was then POTUS and his opinion of NATO and defending allies?
I actually do.
The Baltic states have tiny armies with no air forces. Ukraine has an army and air force strong enough to do serious damage to the invaders.
Let me shed light. If Putin wanted to negotiate an agreement about the type of weapons near its border the example of the Baltic states shows this could easily be arranged. In fact NATO would have been happy to make such an arrangement concerning Ukraine.
More light: Putin wanted to destroy Ukrainian independence and democracy. Nothing suggests a rational desire to defend Russia from invading armies.
Putin didn't want to protect Russia, he wanted to keep Ukraine from protecting itself the way the Baltic states are protected with no offensive weapons at all.
Close to 200K troops in another country is no Cold War; that's hot war.
WW3 will officially begin as soon as Pute thinks of a way how a NATO country started something.
So, for instance, apparently there are USA vets on their way to freelance for Ukraine, just to pass the time.
As soon as Pute catches one of these guys, it's on.
Why can't Putin talk to NATO? He could have applied for membership back in the day, now he can't find a decent translator? NATO has historically been amenable to deals to mollify its own quasi-pacifistic members. Is this not clear?
The war is not all bad news: As Russia presses its war with Ukraine, here are 10 aerospace and defense stocks expected to rise up to 39% (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-russia-presses-its-war-with-ukraine-here-are-10-aerospace-and-defense-stocks-expected-to-rise-up-to-39-11646327075?mod=home-page)
Quote from: drogulus on March 05, 2022, 07:44:23 AM
Why can't Putin talk to NATO?
Oh, he's talking, upping the ante every time. He's just not listening.
Quote from: drogulus on March 05, 2022, 07:44:23 AM
Why can't Putin talk to NATO?
Talking is a notion alien to the scelerate Putin. He is a typical product of the KGB, ie of the USSR, ie of Communism: he only speaks and understands the guns-and-tanks language.
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 04:17:08 AMHow come that, given the opportunity, each and every Eastern European country bordering, or being part of, the former USSR joined NATO by their own choice? How come that not a single one of them chose to remain in Russia's sphere of influence?
"By their own choice" contains an unspoken assumption that's doing a lot of heavy lifting here: the extent to which the majority of post-Soviet and former Eastern Bloc
governments represent the choices and will of their
people is, as anyone who lives in such a country would know, rather minimal. In fact almost all of these governments' choices to ally with either Russia or the USA ends up being directly correlated to whether it was Russia or the USA that installed the government in the first place. This may of course be a total coincidence.
Quote from: drogulus on March 05, 2022, 07:44:23 AM
Why can't Putin talk to NATO? He could have applied for membership back in the day,
Putin reportedly did enter unofficial talks to be considered for NATO membership in ~2008ish. As I recall the process went something like this:
EXT. NATO BUILDING, SOMEWHERE IN EUROPE
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Hi. I'm interested in becoming part of NATO. Please sign me up.
ANONYMOUS NATO OFFICIAL: Sure. Here is our 3,750-page application form. You are currently number 15 in the queue.
VLADIMIR PUTIN: But... I'm a big, important country with lots of oil. Why should I have to wait in line behind all these losers?
ANONYMOUS NATO OFFICIAL: Um... while we
totally trust you we kind of need some assurance that you support America's political interests. Oops, typo. I meant democracy and human rights.
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Eww. That stuff is for losers. You guys suck. I never wanted to be part of your stupid club anyway. I'm off to invade Georgia, byeee
I'm quoting the exact conversation word-for-word of course.
Quote from: amw on March 05, 2022, 09:38:08 AM
"By their own choice" contains an unspoken assumption that's doing a lot of heavy lifting here: the extent to which the majority of post-Soviet and former Eastern Bloc governments represent the choices and will of their people is, as anyone who lives in such a country would know, rather minimal. In fact almost all of these governments' choices to ally with either Russia or the USA ends up being directly correlated to whether it was Russia or the USA that installed the government in the first place. This may of course be a total coincidence.
This is of course total balderdash.
Any independent poll conducted in the Baltic republics, Poland and Romania will return vast majorities in favor of NATO and EU membership, a handful of useful idiots and pinkos notwithstanding.
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 12:54:32 AM
IMO the next challenge for the West will be, apart from adapting militarily and economically to the new situation, to play hardball with China. Not only to prevent China from throwing an econmic lifeline to Putin, but also to nip any further expansionist aspirations in the bud.
Why should Europe care if Russia and China are driven closer? (That's a genuine question, by the way, not a snide way of saying that they shouldn't care!)
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 10:05:28 AM
This is of course total balderdash.
Any independent poll conducted in the Baltic republics, Poland and Romania will return vast majorities in favor of NATO and EU membership, a handful of useful idiots and pinkos notwithstanding.
After 10-20 years of NATO/EU membership and the almost complete reversal of the economic catastrophe most of these countries faced immediately after the fall of the USSR? Sure. In the 1990s and early 2000s, the situation was quite different.
Quote from: amw on March 05, 2022, 10:28:12 AM
After 10-20 years of NATO/EU membership and the almost complete reversal of the economic catastrophe most of these countries faced immediately after the fall of the USSR? Sure. In the 1990s and early 2000s, the situation was quite different.
Well, yes, precisely and exactly. We chose absolute freedom over total slavery, relative prosperity over abject poverty and the liberal West over the tyrannical Russia. We do not repent, we do not regret, we do not abjure. Our choice was the right one, useful idiots and pinkos notwithstanding.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 05, 2022, 10:27:49 AM
Why should Europe care if Russia and China are driven closer? (That's a genuine question, by the way, not a snide way of saying that they shouldn't care!)
China is non-Western and does not adhere to Western conceptions of democracy, liberalism (broadly construed), human rights, etc. In other words, China is very bad and must not be allowed to impede the march to the End of History, in the Francis Fukuyama sense of the phrase. This is well known. If two very bad countries team up, then very, very bad things will happen. It can only be thus. The West cannot allow that to happen. It is a moral imperative to stop it.
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 10:41:07 AM
Well, yes, precisely and exactly. We chose absolute freedom over total slavery, relative prosperity over abject poverty and the liberal West over the tyrannical Russia. We do not repent, we do not regret, we do not abjure. Our choice was the right one, useful idiots and pinkos notwithstanding.
The anywhere from thirty to seventy percent of people in (most) post-Soviet and former Eastern Bloc countries who still, to this day, express nostalgia or preference for communist rule may also take issue with your use of "we".
(That said: in the Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics" the majority of such people who held actual political power were, supposedly—at least if you take the analyses of various third world communist parties at face value, which I generally do—quite rapidly executed or imprisoned and replaced with Russian ethnonationalists. You still get claims that the average citizens of the DPR/LPR love Lenin and Stalin and yearn for revolution and so on, but all the people who actually seem to be holding the guns appear to be the type that believe Russians are the master race and Ukrainians are an imaginary people invented by international Homo-Jew-Bankers for nefarious purposes or whatever.)
Quote from: Mandryka on March 05, 2022, 10:27:49 AM
Why should Europe care if Russia and China are driven closer? (That's a genuine question, by the way, not a snide way of saying that they shouldn't care!)
Europe has tied its fortunes heavily to American economic unipolarity; the emergence of an alternative "pole" centered around China therefore threatens European wealth and political power. Although from that perspective, a Chinese alliance with Russia is mostly concerning to European countries in the context of Chinese inroads in South America, Africa, the Middle East etc: European wealth originates directly (through colonial theft and occupation, followed by neocolonial economic exploitation) from natural and human resources in the third world. Even more so than America or Canada, European countries do not
produce much themselves, being dominated by the service sector, and rely on the costs of materials and labour from countries they exploit remaining low. Russia and China have until now been part of this economic hegemony, contributing cheap fossil fuels and consumer goods etc, and the current war is so far doing nothing to change that—fuelling speculation and a massive (but, importantly: short-term, predictable) rise in prices of things like oil, gas and wheat. However, if the West loses the ability to manipulate resource costs through war, sanctions and regime change, economic hardship will arise, at least for the capitalist class.
(That's admittedly mostly a Fanon/Nkrumahist view. But you guys presumably know where I stand by now.)
Quote from: amw on March 05, 2022, 11:21:36 AMEven more so than America or Canada, European countries do not produce much themselves, being dominated by the service sector, and rely on the costs of materials and labour from countries they exploit remaining low.
Not strictly true. Intra-EU trade of manufactured goods remains quite high, and Germany remains a significant global manufacturing power, though it focuses on higher value-added manufacturing. (The US, of course, is the second largest manufacturing economy after China.)
It is of course true that all Western countries rely extensively on extractive industries in poorer countries, and exploitation of labor in China and developing countries to produce bountiful, cheap consumer products in lower value-added industries.
Quote from: amw on March 05, 2022, 09:38:08 AM
As I recall the process went something like this:
EXT. NATO BUILDING, SOMEWHERE IN EUROPE
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Hi. I'm interested in becoming part of NATO. Please sign me up.
ANONYMOUS NATO OFFICIAL: Sure. Here is our 3,750-page application form. You are currently number 15 in the queue.
VLADIMIR PUTIN: But... I'm a big, important country with lots of oil. Why should I have to wait in line behind all these losers?
ANONYMOUS NATO OFFICIAL: Um... while we totally trust you we kind of need some assurance that you support America's political interests. Oops, typo. I meant democracy and human rights.
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Eww. That stuff is for losers. You guys suck. I never wanted to be part of your stupid club anyway. I'm off to invade Georgia, byeee
I'm quoting the exact conversation word-for-word of course.
That's my understanding, more or less. I don't see how it's a bad deal. Countries disagree with US policy without getting bombed. It's a fabulous deal economically. Nobody runs for the exits over slights of any kind. If there's a better deal out there I don't know what it is.
Meanwhile... BUFFs training over Romania, wonder if the Russians noticed... ::)
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-bombers-fly-over-nato-territory-neighboring-ukraine
Quote from: amw on March 05, 2022, 11:21:36 AM
The anywhere from thirty to seventy percent of people in (most) post-Soviet and former Eastern Bloc countries who still, to this day, express nostalgia or preference for communist rule
Show me one single poll supporting this outlandish claim.
Quote from: amw on March 05, 2022, 11:21:36 AM
The anywhere from thirty to seventy percent of people in (most) post-Soviet and former Eastern Bloc countries who still, to this day, express nostalgia or preference for communist rule may also take issue with your use of "we".
(That said: in the Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics" the majority of such people who held actual political power were, supposedly—at least if you take the analyses of various third world communist parties at face value, which I generally do—quite rapidly executed or imprisoned and replaced with Russian ethnonationalists. You still get claims that the average citizens of the DPR/LPR love Lenin and Stalin and yearn for revolution and so on, but all the people who actually seem to be holding the guns appear to be the type that believe Russians are the master race and Ukrainians are an imaginary people invented by international Homo-Jew-Bankers for nefarious purposes or whatever.)
Europe has tied its fortunes heavily to American economic unipolarity; the emergence of an alternative "pole" centered around China therefore threatens European wealth and political power. Although from that perspective, a Chinese alliance with Russia is mostly concerning to European countries in the context of Chinese inroads in South America, Africa, the Middle East etc: European wealth originates directly (through colonial theft and occupation, followed by neocolonial economic exploitation) from natural and human resources in the third world. Even more so than America or Canada, European countries do not produce much themselves, being dominated by the service sector, and rely on the costs of materials and labour from countries they exploit remaining low. Russia and China have until now been part of this economic hegemony, contributing cheap fossil fuels and consumer goods etc, and the current war is so far doing nothing to change that—fuelling speculation and a massive (but, importantly: short-term, predictable) rise in prices of things like oil, gas and wheat. However, if the West loses the ability to manipulate resource costs through war, sanctions and regime change, economic hardship will arise, at least for the capitalist class.
(That's admittedly mostly a Fanon/Nkrumahist view. But you guys presumably know where I stand by now.)
It looks to me that on one scenario the EU have shot themselves in the foot. By making it difficult for Russia to maintain a stable economy, they've made a closer Russia/China alliance more likely. And that alliance won't do the EU any good at all. Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?
Quote from: Mandryka on March 05, 2022, 12:18:18 PM
It looks to me that on one scenario the EU have shot themselves in the foot. By making it difficult for Russia to maintain a stable economy, they've made a closer Russia/China alliance more likely. And that alliance won't do the EU any good at all. Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?
Re the above, this is a sobering article
QuoteThe rapidly spiraling deployment of these policies does not suggest a carefully calculated campaign of pressure so much as a rushed attempt to meet the demands of our own moral imperatives.
https://scholars-stage.org/pausing-at-the-precipice/
Quote from: Mandryka on March 05, 2022, 12:18:18 PM
(...) Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?
Sanctions have been introduced for less than a week, and they are continually expanding. Time flies, especially in our modern society, but that's being too impatient, as regards their effects.
Some hope for the Russian military to be exhausted within say 3 weeks
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
Obviously, the sanctions are a part of a larger pressure on Russia.
Quote from: Florestan on March 05, 2022, 12:05:55 PM
Show me one single poll supporting this outlandish claim.
We've had this discussion before, and I've shown you the polls and generally agreed with your conclusions (i.e., most of these people don't actually support left-wing politics per se, but rather are nostalgic for the days of their youth and have revised communist politicians into being nationalist icons representing historic greatness and importance). It's not particularly relevant to the topic at hand in any case, since the rate of Soviet nostalgia in Ukraine has generally been much lower than in places like Poland or Romania, for various (justified) reasons.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 05, 2022, 12:18:18 PM
It looks to me that on one scenario the EU have shot themselves in the foot. By making it difficult for Russia to maintain a stable economy, they've made a closer Russia/China alliance more likely. And that alliance won't do the EU any good at all. Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?
I don't believe sanctions were ever intended to stop the war, no. This is not to say they're theatre; the announcement of a new sanction has predictable economic consequences that allow companies to make immense profits and acquire new holdings (or divest from unprofitable ones while there are still buyers).
Again, at this point I think the main thing that will stop the war is Russian troops running out of food and supplies, since that's already been their biggest issue.
The main problems are 1) humans cannot see into the future with perfect clarity, and 2) humans aren't perfect.
Since a certain subset of Homo Sapiens came up with the sanctions to impose upon another subset which, in turn, is attacking a third subset, it is a foregone conclusion that nothing is guaranteed, neither positive nor negative. Indeed, here's the ending of the same article:
" One can make a convincing defense for any one of these measures. It is quite possible that all of them, combined with the other options now being discussed in Western capitals, will successfully blunt Russian aggression, strengthen NATO's long term defense, or deter countries like China from repeating the Russian playbook in places like Taiwan. It is possible. Yet events are passing swift. The rapidly spiraling deployment of these policies does not suggest a carefully calculated campaign of pressure so much as a rushed attempt to meet the demands of our own moral imperatives.
The logic of the imperative has led the West into disaster before. We must be vigilant lest we blindly leap into catastrophe once again. "
In other words, sanctions may or may not yield the desired result.
I never could have figured that out all by myself... ::)
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 04, 2022, 07:29:24 AM
Concerning Zelensky, that's the Ukrainian version; their information isn't always correct.
But I've wondered if there's military research on nano-drones, almost invisible, going on, for such projects (as well as surveillance etc.). They'll probably exist in the future. Just a little thought of mine.
Clever idea re drones! :)
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 05, 2022, 12:45:29 PM
Clever idea re drones! :)
Imagine them in ant-, or mosquito-, or dust size ...
not nice.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 05, 2022, 12:45:29 PM
Clever idea re drones! :)
The CIA had mini-drones for research purposes decades ago. They were about the size of the smallest drones currently available to consumers, and were developed in the 1980's iirc. Makes me wonder if they're down to bug- sized yet.
Quote from: Rinaldo on March 04, 2022, 12:11:31 PM
Huge antiwar protest in Prague this evening. (https://twitter.com/bibalukas/status/1499804627495264262) Zelenskyy addressed the crowd via a video call – he did more of these in different European cities.
Great to see that!
PD
I find much to admire in Mr. Zelensky. He's displayed stellar leadership, generated from the most passionate courage.
However, l hope someone convinces him to give up on the no-fly- zone. He wants to protect his people, of course, but such action would almost certainly widen the war, probably within hours.
Quote from: amw on March 05, 2022, 12:40:19 PM
Again, at this point I think the main thing that will stop the war is Russian troops running out of food and supplies, since that's already been their biggest issue.
If that's right then it makes Putin look like a blundering rogue elephant - I mean, it makes Russia under Putin a less attractive friend for China.
Quote from: LKB on March 05, 2022, 01:05:12 PM
I find much to admire in Mr. Zelensky. He's displayed stellar leadership, generated from the most passionate courage.
He's amazing - media savvy and when he asked for EU membership in the middle of this, that's outrageous, to ask for EU membership as the bombs are raining, and to ask for it publicly, from the battlefield - real chutzpah, breaking all the rules.
Biden and Nato leaders publicly state that they don't want a war with Russia while they want Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. It doesn't work that way toward Russia, which only respects force. The aforementioned statements/policy (and the resulting reluctance of implementing no-fly zone) increase, rather than decrease, the chance of international war, and minimize the chance of Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
Post ed. Georgia and Moldova has applied for EU Membership.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 05, 2022, 12:53:40 PM
Imagine them in ant-, or mosquito-, or dust size ...
not nice.
At the time of my comment I had been thinking of you mentioning that with *good purposes/intentions in mind--but yes, like everything, they could be used for ill. I read recently about something that Apple came up with--Apple Air Tags--which were initially created to help people find their "stuff" being used by evil-folks-with-bad-intentions to do things like follow women to their homes (finding out where they live)...where they go, etc. Shudder! ???
*Did I misunderstand your initial comments?
PD
Quote from: LKB on March 05, 2022, 12:55:11 PM
The CIA had mini-drones for research purposes decades ago. They were about the size of the smallest drones currently available to consumers, and were developed in the 1980's iirc. Makes me wonder if they're down to bug- sized yet.
Interesting to hear. I have mixed thoughts about what I've heard about the current versions and how some people are using them. I could see how they could/did(?) (hopefully) have helped the military accomplish goals (thinking here of what I have heard re the US military in some instances) but am also concerned about other things like people's privacy, people interfering with aircraft, and all sorts of things--including scaring wildlife. Perhaps the biggest issue: determining/restricting(?) access to them to the right people? Big questions and ethics issues I know.
PD
The Polish MIGs may yet fly. The deal would be Poland donates planes to the Ukes and Poland get US planes. It's getting the US jets soon anyway.
These MIGs are oldies but goodies.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 05, 2022, 02:12:18 PM
At the time of my comment I had been thinking of you mentioning that with *good purposes/intentions in mind--but yes, like everything, they could be used for ill. I read recently about something that Apple came up with--Apple Air Tags--which were initially created to help people find their "stuff" being used by evil-folks-with-bad-intentions to do things like follow women to their homes (finding out where they live)...where they go, etc. Shudder! ???
*Did I misunderstand your initial comments?
PD
Well, they can be used for something good and something bad, of course. I remember reading about already existing nano-bots that are to be used medically inside one's body, in the blood veins, say against cancer (still on the experimental level). They are able to move on their own, though not with any remote control. So engineering truly 'en miniature'. But there's something generally unpleasant about such tiny, even invisible stuff ...
Quote from: Mandryka on March 05, 2022, 12:18:18 PM
It looks to me that on one scenario the EU have shot themselves in the foot. By making it difficult for Russia to maintain a stable economy, they've made a closer Russia/China alliance more likely. And that alliance won't do the EU any good at all. Add to that the thought that the sanctions don't seem to be having an effect on the war. Did anyone expect them to? Was it all theatre and panic?
Putin had already been busy getting closer ties with Beijing for a while, in anticipation of this conflict and European sanctions.
Most of the predictions I've read are that the Russian economy is heading for a meltdown.
Russia needs another party to prop up his economy by buying its energy and raw materials, and China needs them.
Both want to expand their sphere of influence by encroaching upon the sovereignty of other nations. They tacitly agreed to have each other's back - it's a perfect marriage of convenience. There are reports that Beijing knew of the invasion and asked the Russians to wait till after the Olympics.
Putin miscalculated and things got out of hand, which took China by surprise as well. The strong message to China should be that throwing a life line to Putin will mean very, very frosty trade relations with the West (US, Europe & allies). China is economically shaky right now... will it take that risk? Maybe not.
Of course Russia is now a big threat because Europe has an aggressive neighbour with a huge army with nuclear capability, led by an insane dictator. But in the grand scheme of things, Russia is a dying empire with a disfunctional economy. The long term threat on a global level is not Russia but China. Which happens to be the US' neighbour and not Europe's.... ::)
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 11:07:39 PM
The long term threat on a global level is not Russia but China. Which happens to be the US' neighbour and not Europe's.... ::)
That depends on whether there
is a long term. All it takes is for Putin to go crazy.
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 11:07:39 PM
Putin had already been busy getting closer ties with Beijing for a while, in anticipation of this conflict and European sanctions.
Most of the predictions I've read are that the Russian economy is heading for a meltdown.
Russia needs another party to prop up his economy by buying its energy and raw materials, and China needs them.
Both want to expand their sphere of influence by encroaching upon the sovereignty of other nations. They tacitly agreed to have each other's back - it's a perfect marriage of convenience. There are reports that Beijing knew of the invasion and asked the Russians to wait till after the Olympics.
Putin miscalculated and things got out of hand, which took China by surprise as well. The strong message to China should be that throwing a life line to Putin will mean very, very frosty trade relations with the West (US, Europe & allies). China is economically shaky right now... will it take that risk? Maybe not.
Of course Russia is now a big threat because Europe has an aggressive neighbour with a huge army with nuclear capability, led by an insane dictator. But in the grand scheme of things, Russia is a dying empire with a disfunctional economy. The long term threat on a global level is not Russia but China. Which happens to be the US' neighbour and not Europe's.... ::)
I think you're underestimating the strength of the Russian economy before the EU sanctions, I don't see why you say it was dysfunctional. Russia is an authoritarian capitalist regime like the Gulf states. I also think that you underestimate the resilience of the Russian economy.
Quote from: Que on March 05, 2022, 11:07:39 PM
The long term threat on a global level is not Russia but China. Which happens to be the US' neighbour and not Europe's.... ::)
Beijing is several thousand kilometres closer to Kyiv than it is to Los Angeles. The Pacific Ocean is large.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 05, 2022, 12:34:03 PM
Sanctions have been introduced for less than a week, and they are continually expanding. Time flies, especially in our modern society, but that's being too impatient, as regards their effects.
Some hope for the Russian military to be exhausted within say 3 weeks
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
Obviously, the sanctions are a part of a larger pressure on Russia.
I think the interesting question is how much Western governments are prepared to make people suffer -- due to, let's say (at a guess), energy costs tripling if they stop Russia trading oil and gas. Is Ukraine worth it?
I'm reminded of this reasonable and levelheaded point from amw
Quote from: amw on March 01, 2022, 12:14:11 PM
- Two weeks ago, the world economy was on the threshold of recession, caused primarily by fiscal policy, along with the continuing effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which various world governments had all collectively decided was "over" and "not worth paying attention to anymore". These causes for recession would normally be guaranteed to turn people against their own governments. Now, since the world's entire attention is focused on the war, once the recession does begin, the Russians will be able to blame America & the EU, and the Americans and Europeans will be able to blame Russia.
As far as I know the only country with an election soon is France, and that may happen before the people feel the hit. Best buy some extra clothes for wearing inside this winter . . .
Quote from: Mandryka on March 06, 2022, 04:07:21 AM
I think the interesting question is how much Western governments are prepared to make people suffer -- due to, let's say (at a guess), energy costs tripling if they stop Russia trading oil and gas. Is Ukraine worth it?
I'm reminded of this reasonable and levelheaded point from amw
As far as I know the only country with an election soon is France, and that may happen before the people feel the hit. Best buy some extra clothes for wearing inside this winter . . .
Polls here say OK for any ~suffering. Demonstrations suggest it too. We'll get more polls successively. Obviously, there has been a good deal of previous racism towards Ukrainians (even compared to Russians), and some will try to enliven it. So far, there's a wave of solidarity. European Right Wingers are fleeing Putin. But of course, if one is living below the poverty line or therabout, one's views might get strained in the longer run. That's why the EU is working on the energy question. It's good that this is March, not December.
A lot of staples will get more expensive, too. For instance, Ukraine supplies 28% of the world's grain for bread flour; so till deep into 2023 we're looking at a big shrink in the supply and bread (and similar products) will get a lot more expensive.
Countries are on the verge of recession like always. They are also on the verge of the other things. I can't count the number of verges I'm on.
I think people are more willing to take a financial hit to thwart aggression against the interconnected world of which they are a part than for parts of the less connected world. Emotion and self interest are involved. I don't see that invalidates any course of action. Perhaps it should be (heh!) explained to me.
A presser here in DK with representatives from six parties across the political spectrum that tend to be in government, called a "National Agreement about the future defense policies". Probably typical of some tendencies elsewhere in Europe.
- Reaching the NATO-signed 2% of the BNP in 2033, defense budget will increase on a yearly basis from now on, a rise of between 0.5 billion and 2.5 billion Euros per year. This might result in cuts in welfare, but the economy will likely be expanding anyway. Current defense budget BNP share is 1.5%. But it must also be said DK has so far been very engaged in various Western military missions abroad.
- Independence from Russian energy as soon as possible, but in collaboration with the EU.
- A national referendum in June, about abolishing existing Danish reservations in relation to EU defense collaboration.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 06, 2022, 04:07:21 AM
I think the interesting question is how much Western governments are prepared to make people suffer -- due to, let's say (at a guess), energy costs tripling if they stop Russia trading oil and gas. Is Ukraine worth it?
I'm reminded of this reasonable and levelheaded point from amw
As far as I know the only country with an election soon is France, and that may happen before the people feel the hit. Best buy some extra clothes for wearing inside this winter . . .
Depending on your definition of soon...the US has a round of elections this November, with primaries before then. General expectations were that the GOP would make significant gains. How this war will affect things is right now pure guess work.
U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency
https://archive.ph/yEkMh#selection-781.0-800.0
And here's an opinion piece which is not, in my opinion, totally implausible
https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-a-sacrificial-pawn-on?r=334o5&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR2HIVijuI7z_LN_Fh2ZL5I6xvSHCfeI2AuuUXDwsa45cc8fX_wF0ptfVTU
Quote from: Mandryka on March 06, 2022, 01:44:14 PM
And here's an opinion piece which is not, in my opinion, totally implausible
https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-a-sacrificial-pawn-on?r=334o5&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR2HIVijuI7z_LN_Fh2ZL5I6xvSHCfeI2AuuUXDwsa45cc8fX_wF0ptfVTU
It's not plausible once you notice she includes a Ben Norton tweet and repeats Glenn Greewald talking points. Her whole premise assumes that Putin is only concerned by the possible expansion of NATO and not his previously expressed desire to revive the Soviet Empire.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 06, 2022, 01:44:14 PM
And here's an opinion piece which is not, in my opinion, totally implausible
https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-a-sacrificial-pawn-on?r=334o5&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR2HIVijuI7z_LN_Fh2ZL5I6xvSHCfeI2AuuUXDwsa45cc8fX_wF0ptfVTU
"No meaningful diplomatic effort is being made by Washington to end the violence. Ukrainian lives are being spent like pennies to facilitate the agenda of US planetary domination by whipping up international support for the strangulation of Russia while pouring vast fortunes into the military-industrial complex rather than taking even the tiniest step toward de-escalation, diplomacy and detente.
And it's entirely possible that this was all planned years in advance.
Is it a coincidence that before this started we were bombarded with shrieking anti-Russia narratives for five years, all of which were initiated by secretive and unaccountable intelligence agencies and none of which have ever been substantiated with hard evidence?" It's a conspiracy theory.
While some pets flee Ukraine, a lady offers a shelter to those left behind. They look so cute and defenseless on the pics.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-06-22/h_19987031800d47107badea6d30f4353f
https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/world/2022/03/04/dogs-cats-animals-ukraine-russian-invasion/9367867002/
Quote from: JBS on March 06, 2022, 01:55:41 PMhis previously expressed desire to revive the Soviet Empire.
I believe some thinkers now claim he wants to rebuild the pre-Soviet empire. He denies it. So either he does or he does not. Either way, whichever empire might be pursued, The West gave Putin a convenient pretext by foolishly and entirely needlessly expanding NATO to Russia's borders. And when Putin is gone, whenever that is, Russian strategic concerns remain.
Quote from: Todd on March 06, 2022, 02:34:03 PM
I believe some thinkers now claim he wants to rebuild the pre-Soviet empire. He denies it. So either he does or he does not. Either way, whichever empire might be pursued, The West gave Putin a convenient pretext by foolishly and entirely needlessly expanding NATO to Russia's borders. And when Putin is gone, whenever that is, Russian strategic concerns remain.
Only if you assume that Russia and the rest of Europe are intrinsically hostile to each other. Putin does, but that doesn't mean it truly is.
Quote from: JBS on March 06, 2022, 02:42:39 PM
Only if you assume that Russia and the rest of Europe are intrinsically hostile to each other. Putin does, but that doesn't mean it truly is.
It is not all about Putin, which gets lost for some reason. Russian leaders in the 90s opposed NATO expansion as well, but they could do nothing about it.
Let's be clear, NATO is an extension of American power. America and Russia have been enemies since 1917, with a brief respite, if one can call it a respite, during the Great Patriotic War.
Quote from: JBS on March 06, 2022, 02:42:39 PM
Only if you assume that Russia and the rest of Europe are intrinsically hostile to each other. Putin does, but that doesn't mean it truly is.
And it isn't really like Putin to deny something, if it's true, right?
Putin doesn't need a pretext. As for NATO, it's justification is the danger posed by Russian imperialism. Some neighbors of Russia are relatively safe, others are in danger. Putin is making the case, I'm merely pointing out how solid it is.
If NATO dissolved because of how super obsolete and, um, provocative it is, would Putin be content? Let's put an end to this silliness.
Pakistan PM hits back at Western push to condemn Russia (https://thehill.com/policy/international/597082-pakistan-pm-hits-back-at-western-push-to-condemn-russia)
Last week, 22 Islamabad-based diplomats released a joint letter calling on the Pakistani government to join the United Nations' resolution in condemning Russia's attack on Ukraine. Pakistan had abstained from voting on the resolution.
"What do you think of us? Are we your slaves ... that whatever you say, we will do?" Khan said during a political rally
QED Time for Washington to acknowledge that Pakistan, a refuge for terrorists and breeding ground for fundamentalism, is a lost cause... All its corrupt political elite and army have done is suck up billions of US tax money...
Quote from: drogulus on March 06, 2022, 06:52:00 PM
Putin doesn't need a pretext. As for NATO, it's justification is the danger posed by Russian imperialism. Some neighbors of Russia are relatively safe, others are in danger. Putin is making the case, I'm merely pointing out how solid it is.
If NATO dissolved because of how super obsolete and, um, provocative it is, would Putin be content? Let's put an end to this silliness.
Totally agree. Blaming NATO's expansion, or the EU's, for Putin's actions is a classic example of confusing cause and effect.
Did Putin invade Georgia because it wanted to join NATO? Did Russia bomb Chechenia or Syria because of NATO expansion?
QuoteIf Nato governments have private reservations about Article 5 – mutual assistance by all if one is attacked – we are doomed. Die for Estonia? Yes, we must be prepared to die for Estonia and the world must be sure that we are. We know now that Putin "means it". Do we mean it?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/06/history-repeats-itslelf-like-half-forgotten-song-once-we-remember-too-late?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on March 06, 2022, 02:26:03 PM
While some pets flee Ukraine, a lady offers a shelter to those left behind. They look so cute and defenseless on the pics.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-06-22/h_19987031800d47107badea6d30f4353f
https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/world/2022/03/04/dogs-cats-animals-ukraine-russian-invasion/9367867002/
It's been horrible to see all of the pictures/images of not just the humans dying and being forced to flee but also the suffering that the animals (both pets and zoo animals--not to mention, I'm sure too, the wildlife there). The people who volunteered to stay behind to feed and look after people's pets, zoo animals, and abandoned/shelter animals are real heroes in my book.
I believe that I posted this link before but am not certain. It's an article on the BBC's website about the donations and volunteers, but also about problems with the sudden influx of all of these pets from Ukraine coming into other countries and the regulations and restrictions involved (regarding things like proof of vaccines, etc.). I hope that they have come up with a system so that most of them don't end up in quarantine and get separated from their owners? Anyone here know more about that?
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-60593791
PD
Motherf**king Putin, now the sob offers " evacuation " for Ukrainian civilians... to Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Right now, l could shoot that asshole in the face.
Quote from: Que on March 06, 2022, 10:18:48 PMQED Time for Washington to acknowledge that Pakistan, a refuge for terrorists and breeding ground for fundamentalism, is a lost cause...
What does "a lost cause" mean? Pakistan has more than 200 million people and it has nukes. Not a lost cause. Engagement should be considered important.
Quote from: Que on March 06, 2022, 10:24:57 PM
Totally agree. Blaming NATO's expansion, or the EU's, for Putin's actions is a classic example of confusing cause and effect.
Did Putin invade Georgia because it wanted to join NATO? Did Russia bomb Chechenia or Syria because of NATO expansion?
Putin did not invade Georgia until after George W Bush and The West offered to extend NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine. Russians cynically - as cynically as The West - used an R2P rationale. So yes, the threat of reckless NATO expansion is a direct cause of that war. There were other causes, but some in The West clearly refuse to acknowledge that The West's reckless actions help precipitate crises.
Actions in Chechnya were aimed at suppressing secessionists. That is a not uncommon reaction to secession. Of course, some other people will express a desire to support those seeking self-determination.
Russian involvement in Syria was done to prop up a regional ally, and at a time when the US began to reduce its involvement after its own disastrous military actions in the region. Russia's record in the Middle East is not quite so destructive and bloody as that of The West.
Quote from: LKB on March 07, 2022, 03:47:27 AMRight now, l could shoot that asshole in the face.
Could you now?
Quote from: LKB on March 07, 2022, 03:47:27 AM
Motherf**king Putin, now the sob offers " evacuation " for Ukrainian civilians... to Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Right now, l could shoot that asshole in the face.
Come on over, the gulags are fine!
Quote from: Que on March 06, 2022, 10:18:48 PM
Pakistan PM hits back at Western push to condemn Russia (https://thehill.com/policy/international/597082-pakistan-pm-hits-back-at-western-push-to-condemn-russia)
Last week, 22 Islamabad-based diplomats released a joint letter calling on the Pakistani government to join the United Nations' resolution in condemning Russia's attack on Ukraine. Pakistan had abstained from voting on the resolution.
"What do you think of us? Are we your slaves ... that whatever you say, we will do?" Khan said during a political rally
QED Time for Washington to acknowledge that Pakistan, a refuge for terrorists and breeding ground for fundamentalism, is a lost cause... All its corrupt political elite and army have done is suck up billions of US tax money...
The dollars are spent. To tax a dollar is to extinguish it, not give it to Pakistan. As ignorant as I am of what those dollars do I assume they have a marginal effect. I hesitate to treat causes as lost.
Most dollars spent abroad end up "in here, with us", as a notorious friend of mine says.
(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/evil.gif)
Quote from: LKB on March 07, 2022, 03:47:27 AM
Motherf**king Putin, now the sob offers " evacuation " for Ukrainian civilians... to Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Right now, l could shoot that asshole in the face.
Clown with a red nose.
https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/
Russia offers cease fire terms.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 07, 2022, 07:47:24 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/
Russia offers cease fire terms.
More Russian lies.
Quote from: Todd on March 07, 2022, 05:44:08 AM
Russia's record in the Middle East is not quite so destructive and bloody as that of The West.
True, even if Russia plays dirty and targets civilians ruthlessly.
I heartily applaud efforts to make India a better friend while bullying them a little, even to the point of buying US weapons. The profit motive is not the main reason. Countries find it easier to align with their suppliers, or at least not offend them overmuch. I trust that's not an esoteric point.
Hey, India, your Kuznetsov is a piece of shit. Aren't you embarrassed? China has a better Kuznetsov than yours. You would like some help with that and some F-35s maybe?
Quote from: Que on March 07, 2022, 08:36:15 AM
True, even if Russia plays dirty and targets civilians ruthlessly.
We should understand that Russia doesn't just target civilians because it's fun for them. They do it because they have very little in the way of precision guided weapons and the ones they have are ineffective against moving or hidden targets. Some of their Flankers have rudimentary targeting pods but they are the shit. So they are getting shot down because they can only hit targets from a low altitude and Uke combat units are mobile and decentralized. Strategy and tactics are limited by capabilities.
Quote from: Todd on March 07, 2022, 05:44:08 AM
Could you now?
Having in years past used firearms in earnest, yes. I could... and would.
Fortunately, l expect someone else will be tasked with the honor of relieving the world of VP, and soon. ;)
Quote from: Que on March 07, 2022, 08:36:15 AM
True, even if Russia plays dirty and targets civilians ruthlessly.
The trick is to call the war dead "enemy combatants".
Quote from: LKB on March 07, 2022, 09:43:13 AM
Having in years past used firearms in earnest, yes. I could... and would.
Most impressive.
(https://i.imgur.com/hIY1Kc8.png)
A piece of shit.
(https://i.imgur.com/hDrx503.jpg)
A Chinese Flanker with a non-piece of shit targeting pod.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 07, 2022, 09:59:58 AMPersonally, I'd be willing to send someone like Clinton or Obama over with an offer of $400 million and a guarantee of no extradition in a country of his choice, provided he quits office right now. Buy the bastard off.
Putin is estimated to be worth tens of billions of dollars, maybe more (up to $200 billion, but who knows (https://fortune.com/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-net-worth-2022/)), a good portion of it outside the reach of The West. I doubt Putin is concerned about a small bribe.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 07, 2022, 10:59:27 AMIn any event, the offer of no war crimes trials and a quiet retirement in a country of his choosing should probably be of significance to him.
One must first believe that the head of a powerful state like Russia would, in fact, face trial at the ICC. That is less likely than Putin being worth tens of billions of dollars.
Even without Putin, Russia still needs to create a defensible border against NATO. Grabbing Ukraine's valuable natural resources while you're at it must seem like icing on the cake.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 07, 2022, 10:59:27 AM
Well, I doubt that. If his wealth is inside Russia, it's of considerably less wealth than it was, and heading south at a rate of knots; if it's outside Russia, it's practically valueless these days.
In any event, the offer of no war crimes trials and a quiet retirement in a country of his choosing should probably be of significance to him.
Basically the Idi Amin offer, knowing that if he doesn't take it, his people will do a Ceaucescu on him (with any luck).
If reports are to be believed he has a lot of wealth inside and outside of Russia, including a palatial estate inside Russia and billions secreted in western banks, some fraction of which they won't be able to trace. That is for his progeny, I assume. He will never leave Russia.
The dramatic shutdown of internet access to the outside world and the criminalization of any dissent is the most telling thing to me. I was in Russia in about 2010 and the internet was not restricted. The mass media was a mouthpiece for the government but you could still access information from the outside world. The fact that Putin thinks this is necessary is telling. Now it seems that Russia is more shut in than China.
A country that isolated itself to this extent can't be economically successful.
What will China do?
China touts 'rock solid' ties with Russia as it offers to mediate Ukraine conflict (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/07/china-russia-relationship-ukraine/)
Xi should pressure Putin to end this war for China's own sake (https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/7/xi-should-pressure-putin-to-end-this-war-for-chinas-own-sake)
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 07, 2022, 12:31:06 PM
...He will never leave Russia.
Sure he will, it's just a question of when and how.
I'd bet the Russians will usher him out the door themselves, sooner or later, via polonium or a pistol.
I do agree that he'll never stand trial though.
'Americans have never seen gasoline prices this high —nor have we seen the pace of increases so fast and furious': Gas tops $4 a gallon (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/once-you-cross-the-4-threshold-consumers-start-considering-all-sorts-of-options-get-ready-for-gas-prices-to-break-these-records-11646675380?mod=mw_latestnews)
Now it's time to set up that No Fly Zone. Hey, wait . . .
(https://inflationdata.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Inflation-Adjusted-Gasoline-Price-Feb-2020.png)
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 07, 2022, 12:37:56 PM
The dramatic shutdown of internet access to the outside world and the criminalization of any dissent is the most telling thing to me. I was in Russia in about 2010 and the internet was not restricted. The mass media was a mouthpiece for the government but you could still access information from the outside world. The fact that Putin thinks this is necessary is telling. Now it seems that Russia is more shut in than China.
A country that isolated itself to this extent can't be economically successful.
There are reports, as yet unverified, that Russia will cut off access to all foreign internet, keeping only Russian websites and servers, within maybe a week, perhaps around March 11th-12th.
They already did a general, countrywide test of that concept in April 2019.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 07, 2022, 11:25:51 AM
Even without Putin, Russia still needs to create a defensible border against NATO. Grabbing Ukraine's valuable natural resources while you're at it must seem like icing on the cake.
If Russia wants to defend it's border with Latvia or Ukraine or some other country that will never threaten them, they can. They don't need to, but hey, they can knock themselves out. Defense doesn't require the kind of massive offensive weaponry Russia has. An effective defense could easily be done more cheaply, and that would be sensible. All they'd give up is the force needed to invade their neighbors. Why should Russia
need that?
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 07, 2022, 12:37:56 PM
The dramatic shutdown of internet access to the outside world and the criminalization of any dissent is the most telling thing to me. I was in Russia in about 2010 and the internet was not restricted.
I was still living there in 2010. At that time basically nothing was blocked; any source of information you wanted was available, either in print or on the Internet. From what I've heard, the situation has been deteriorating since I left.
I don't think anyone has mentioned yet one of the Russian army's biggest problems: draft dodging. They still have a conscript army, and every year, more than half of those called don't show up. The most common way out is to bribe a doctor to give you a bad health record. Other methods of dodging include leaving your city (or country) during the call-up period so they can't find you, and of course the time-honored method of getting an educational deferment. The Russian army is such a tough place to be that many (most?) Russians consider you to be stupid or a loser if you have a way out and don't take it. Yes, Russian patriotism can be loud, but it can also be flimsy and brittle, depending on the situation.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 07, 2022, 02:18:54 PMThe most common way out is to bribe a doctor to give you a bad health record.
Bone spurs!
I had a legitimately bad knee, though I would have been satisfied with an illegitimately bad one if it came to that.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 07, 2022, 02:31:23 PM
Bone spurs!
Or complain about asthma while on college swim team.
Quote from: drogulus on March 07, 2022, 01:50:20 PM
If Russia wants to defend it's border with Latvia or Ukraine or some other country that will never threaten them, they can. They don't need to, but hey, they can knock themselves out. Defense doesn't require the kind of massive offensive weaponry Russia has. An effective defense could easily be done more cheaply, and that would be sensible. All they'd give up is the force needed to invade their neighbors. Why should Russia need that?
Now you really are being disingenuous. From the Russian perspective, what makes NATO a threat? Could it be it's seen as the European arm of US armed forces- the US are certainly the biggest partner at 41% ?
https://www.nationalworld.com/news/what-is-biggest-army-in-the-world-size-and-strength-of-uk-ukraine-russia-nato-and-china-armies-compared-3584043
I have been getting rid of the overhelming anxiety caused by this war by almost completely ignoring it. I don't follow the news almost at all. It has helped. I do and think about other things as much as possible. I have to do it to be a functioning person.
Quote from: 71 dB on March 08, 2022, 01:09:30 AM
I have been getting rid of the overhelming anxiety caused by this war by almost completely ignoring it. I don't follow the news almost at all. It has helped. I do and think about other things as much as possible. I have to do it to be a functioning person.
Don't worry, I don't think Finland is anywhere near the top of Putin's shopping list!
However, Finland is pretty much completely dependent on Russian gas. That might be a problem next winter.
The Ukrainian people is assassinated on-air and Ukrainian cities are shelled to the ground --- yet Patriarch Kirill of Russia's most pressing problem is... the gay parades in the West. This man is not a follower of Christ by any stretch of imagination, he is a minion of Satan.
Well, I think most of us saw this one coming...
Russia threatens Europe's gas supplies as west mulls oil import ban over Ukraine invasion
Deputy prime minister raises prospect of closing Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany, and says rejecting Russian oil would be 'catastrophic' for world (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/russia-threatens-europes-gas-supplies-as-west-mulls-oil-import-ban-over-ukraine-invasion)
Is Putin bluffing? The fact that he lets another member of his govt deliver the message could indicate he is cautious in his mode of escalation.
Quote from: Que on March 08, 2022, 01:21:05 AM
Is Putin bluffing?
In this case, possibly. No more Russian gas to Europe means no more Western money to Russia.
In any case, the Lithuanian President is right: Putin will not stop unless he is stopped.
Quote from: Que on March 08, 2022, 01:15:50 AM
Don't worry, I don't think Finland is anywhere near the top of Putin's shopping list!
However, Finland is pretty much completely dependent on Russian gas. That might be a problem next winter.
Future will tell what is or isn't on Putin's shopping list, but what happens in Ukraine is enough to create massive anxiety and sadness.
Finland always suffer more than other countries when sanctions are set against Russia. Even the stock market has dropped more in Finland than elsewhere in the Europe, because foreign investors want to get rid of Finnish stocks. Finland is considered risky now, because we have 1340 km (830 miles) long border with Russia. :P
Remarkable:
"Russia's foreign ministry has said that Russia and the US should return to the principle of peaceful co-existence like they did during the cold war, reports Reuters citing Interfax news agency."
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 07, 2022, 12:31:06 PM
If reports are to be believed he has a lot of wealth inside and outside of Russia, including a palatial estate inside Russia and billions secreted in western banks, some fraction of which they won't be able to trace. That is for his progeny, I assume. He will never leave Russia.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if he didn't have a stash of US dollars--and perhaps some other currencies--to help prop up his wealth there with him.
PD
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 07, 2022, 02:18:54 PM
I was still living there in 2010. At that time basically nothing was blocked; any source of information you wanted was available, either in print or on the Internet. From what I've heard, the situation has been deteriorating since I left.
I don't think anyone has mentioned yet one of the Russian army's biggest problems: draft dodging. They still have a conscript army, and every year, more than half of those called don't show up. The most common way out is to bribe a doctor to give you a bad health record. Other methods of dodging include leaving your city (or country) during the call-up period so they can't find you, and of course the time-honored method of getting an educational deferment. The Russian army is such a tough place to be that many (most?) Russians consider you to be stupid or a loser if you have a way out and don't take it. Yes, Russian patriotism can be loud, but it can also be flimsy and brittle, depending on the situation.
Thank you for your input. It's nice to hear some observations from someone who actually lived there. May I ask how long you lived there for and why you went there?
PD
Quote from: Florestan on March 08, 2022, 01:19:53 AM
The Ukrainian people is assassinated on-air and Ukrainian cities are shelled to the ground --- yet Patriarch Kirill of Russia's most pressing problem is... the gay parades in the West. This man is not a follower of Christ by any stretch of imagination, he is a minion of Satan.
I completely agree!
AP Source: Biden to ban Russian oil imports over Ukraine war (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-us-russia-oil-ban-120c0152cf310a5b593f6ae7a2857e62)
Maduro Signals Interest in Better Venezuela, US Relations (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-08/maduro-signals-interest-in-better-venezuela-us-relations)
Coincidental timing, I am sure.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 08, 2022, 02:26:17 AM
Thank you for your input. It's nice to hear some observations from someone who actually lived there. May I ask how long you lived there for and why you went there?
I lived there 2005-2012. By educational background I'm a Slavic linguist (actually studied in Kiev way back when), so it made sense that I would go there. It's where I got started on my current career, legal and business translation, which has unfortunately been decimated by Covid.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 08, 2022, 07:49:50 AM
I lived there 2005-2012. By educational background I'm a Slavic linguist (actually studied in Kiev way back when),
So you speak both Russian and Ukrainian, I presume. Hearing Zelensky's speeches I got the impression that Ukrainian is close to Polish in accent and pronunciation and close to Russian in vocabulary. Am I right?
Quote from: Florestan on March 08, 2022, 07:55:45 AM
So you speak both Russian and Ukrainian, I presume. Hearing Zelensky's speeches I got the impression that Ukrainian is close to Polish in accent and pronunciation and close to Russian in vocabulary. Am I right?
Actually it's the other way around. Ukrainian is an East Slavic language, so the phonology is closer to Russian. However, due to a long period of Polish rule it has a huge number of words of Polish origin. If you know both Russian and Polish, you essentially already have a good passive knowledge of Ukrainian.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 08, 2022, 07:49:50 AM
I lived there 2005-2012. By educational background I'm a Slavic linguist (actually studied in Kiev way back when), so it made sense that I would go there. It's where I got started on my current career, legal and business translation, which has unfortunately been decimated by Covid.
I see that (with the help of Wiki) that the Slavic language tree is split between East, West and South. Must admit, I'd love to learn Czech (would like to visit it and the Slovak republics). How easy is it to understand Russian for Ukrainians? I've gotten the feeling that a lot of the Ukrainians speak Russian too from the news.
And very sorry to hear about your business struggles at the moment. Have you had to add on a secondary job due to Covid? :(
And do you still keep in touch with any Ukrainian friends/mentors from your former school days?
PD
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 08, 2022, 06:05:30 AM
Not really. If he gets kicked out of office by his former friends, he's no longer the head of anything very much. At which point, the guarantee that he won't be extradited from whatever country he chooses for his 'retirement' would be an attractive prospect. And the ICC doesn't particularly matter in this regard: it's the guarantee of non-pursuit, by anyone, for anything, that might sway his mind (but probably won't).
This assumes that Putin gets kicked out of office, and not Putin's corpse. I suspect Putin himself does not share that assumption.
I can easily envisage a show trial arranged by the new regime that's meant to put all the blame on Putin and select associates, but deflect blame from the leaders of the new regime. Such things after all have happened before in Moscow.
Quote from: "Harry" on March 08, 2022, 02:34:01 AM
I completely agree!
Contrast Kirill with Patriarch Daniel of Romania who publicly and explicitly denounced ""the Russian aggression against the sovereign and independent Ukraine."
Morevover, the spokesperson of the Romanian Orthodox Church lambasted Kirill in no uncertain terms, albeit not nominating hm personally.
I think that Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople should excommunicate Kirill and urge all Orthodox Churches worldwide to follow suit.
Quote from: JBS on March 08, 2022, 08:50:34 AM
I can easily envisage a show trial arranged by the new regime that's meant to put all the blame on Putin and select associates, but deflect blame from the leaders of the new regime. Such things after all have happened before in Moscow.
Only too true but then again, fingers crossed. Even that would be much better and acceptable than what we have now.
Food for thought.
You do not, I see, quite understand the Russian public. Its character is determined by the condition of Russian society, which contains, imprisoned within it, fresh forces seething and bursting to break out; but crushed by heavy repression and unable to escape, they produce gloom, bitter depression, apathy. Only in literature, in spite of our Tartar censorship, there is still some life and forward movement. This is why the writer's calling enjoys such respect among us, why literary success is so easy here even when there is little talent. ... This is why, especially among us, universal attention is paid to every manifestation of any so-called liberal trend, no matter how poor the writer's gifts. ... The public ... sees in Russian writers its only leaders, defenders and saviours from dark autocracy, Orthodoxy and the national way of life. ...
—Vissarion Belinsky
Open Letter to Gogol, July 15, 1847
Quote from: JBS on March 08, 2022, 08:50:34 AM
This assumes that Putin gets kicked out of office, and not Putin's corpse. I suspect Putin himself does not share that assumption.
I can easily envisage a show trial arranged by the new regime that's meant to put all the blame on Putin and select associates, but deflect blame from the leaders of the new regime. Such things after all have happened before in Moscow.
What happened when Yeltsin made a hash of it? Putin, who no one had ever heard of, was appointed Prime Minister, within two months Yeltsin resigns, Putin is appointed President, his first act is to close all corruption investigations of Yeltsin, the second Chechen war, the election is moved up so no one has time to campaign, Putin is elected president. Yeltsin lives happily ever after, until his alcoholism catches up with him. If the oligarchs and the military decide Putin has outlived his usefulness I suspect a similar scenario. Actually the latest revision of the Russian constitution already includes provisions which prevent Putin from being held legally responsible for anything that happened when he was in office. Maybe Putin will actually get to ride in his super-Yacht.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 07, 2022, 07:27:46 PM
Now you really are being disingenuous. From the Russian perspective, what makes NATO a threat? Could it be it's seen as the European arm of US armed forces- the US are certainly the biggest partner at 41% ?
https://www.nationalworld.com/news/what-is-biggest-army-in-the-world-size-and-strength-of-uk-ukraine-russia-nato-and-china-armies-compared-3584043
The real national security threat to Russia is China. Putin and his fellow fantasists are projecting their own hostility to the West onto the West itself.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 08, 2022, 08:41:15 AM
I see that (with the help of Wiki) that the Slavic language tree is split between East, West and South. Must admit, I'd love to learn Czech (would like to visit it and the Slovak republics). How easy is it to understand Russian for Ukrainians? I've gotten the feeling that a lot of the Ukrainians speak Russian too from the news.
Czech is about the hardest Slavic language, at least in my experience.
Ukraine is basically a bilingual country, with Russian predominating in the bigger cities and Ukrainian in the countryside and the western part (Galicia). However, what a lot of people speak on a daily basis is actually this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surzhyk
QuoteAnd very sorry to hear about your business struggles at the moment. Have you had to add on a secondary job due to Covid? :(
The initial lockdown period was the worst: no business trips, courts in Europe closed, everything dried up. Things have improved since then, but it's still not back to what it was, so I'm having to pursue other gigs in addition.
QuoteAnd do you still keep in touch with any Ukrainian friends/mentors from your former school days?
Not really, since it's been so long. Some years ago I discovered that one of my teachers in Kiev is now living in Philadelphia and running his own business. I've tried to get in contact with him, so far without success.
Mainly, I know a lot of post-Soviet people here in the Chicago area, most of them newish acquaintances. The lady whose house we had dinner at last Saturday is or was a citizen of Belarus, with a Russian father and a Ukrainian mother. A very typical situation in that part of the world, which underscores the fratricidal character of the current war.
Quote from: drogulus on March 08, 2022, 09:53:35 AM
Putin and his fellow fantasists are projecting their own hostility to the West onto the West itself.
Unfortunately, this is a much older Russian mindset than Putin. Alas, even Dostoevsky and Solzhenitsyn succumbed to it. Russian / Slavophilic messianism is perhaps the main historical obstacle between any genuine friendship & cooperation of Russia and the West. And as you say, it's not the West's fault, not even by a long stretch of imagination, Napoleon and Hitler notwithstanding. Peter the Great and Lenin / Stalin predate them by decades.
Quote from: Florestan on March 08, 2022, 10:10:13 AM
Unfortunately, this is a much older Russian mindset than Putin. Alas, even Dostoevsky and Solzhenitsyn succumbed to it. Russian / Slavophilic messianism is perhaps the main historical obstacle between any genuine friendship & cooperation of Russia and the West. And as you say, it's not the West's fault, not even by a long stretch of imagination, Napoleon and Hitler notwithstanding. Peter the Great and Lenin / Stalin predate them by decades.
Peter did have to deal with Charles of Sweden.
I noticed on a map tweeted out by the UK Ministry of Defence that Poltava is well within the boundaries of modern Ukraine.
Quote from: JBS on March 08, 2022, 11:19:43 AM
Peter did have to deal with Charles of Sweden.
Yes but that was just business as usual back then, not any kind of the Russian/Slavophilic-Civilizational-Zero-Sum-War-Against-the-West which the scelerate Putin and his minions are playing now and which, unfortunately, even Dostoesvky and Solzhenitsyn seem to have envisaged.
QuoteI noticed on a map tweeted out by the UK Ministry of Defence that Poltava is well within the boundaries of modern Ukraine.
I wonder how many future generations will have to pass until Ukrainians will stop hating Russians...
A rhetorical question, actually. I know of no nation under the sun which, bordering Russia and given the opportunity, did not choose the West, ie NATO and EU.
Food for thought.
There is no European country in which the vast majority of the people is not absolutely indifferent to the rights which are the objects and desire of concern only to the liberals.
Nikolay Chernyshevsky
Quote from: Florestan on March 08, 2022, 01:05:54 PM
Food for thought.
There is no European country in which the vast majority of the people is not absolutely indifferent to the rights which are the objects and desire of concern only to the liberals.
Nikolay Chernyshevsky
That word turns a dismissive observation into a meaningless tautology.
Quote from: Florestan on March 08, 2022, 01:05:54 PM
Food for thought.
There is no European country in which the vast majority of the people is not absolutely indifferent to the rights which are the objects and desire of concern only to the liberals.
Nikolay Chernyshevsky
There's a few things lost in translation or lost out of context there.
Should "indifferent" be "take for granted"? And which "rights" are we talking about?
And how is it liberals win popular votes if the "vast majority" are indifferent to their "desires".
More importantly: how exactly does this relate to the topic of the thread? Recent events surely contradict that floating quote.
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 08, 2022, 01:42:11 PM
liberals win popular votes if the "vast majority" are indifferent to their "desires".
What popular vote did liberals win in Russia? I am not aware of any such vote in the whole history of Russia.
Quote from: Florestan on March 08, 2022, 01:51:21 PM
What popular vote did liberals win in Russia? I am not aware of any such vote in the whole history of Russia.
The quote wasn't about Russia. It was a sweeping generalization about Europe: "There is no European country in which the vast majority of the people is not absolutely indifferent ...."
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 08, 2022, 02:01:55 PM
The quote wasn't about Russia. It was a sweeping generalization about Europe: "There is no European country in which the vast majority of the people is not absolutely indifferent ...."
The quote was exactly about Russia, clumsily transation notwithstanding, and it matches Russia to a tee.
What popular vote did liberals ever win in Russia, pray tell?
You...can see the word European there...right?
Forget it. I was wanting clarity, not another argument.
Quote from: Florestan on March 08, 2022, 01:51:21 PM
What popular vote did liberals win in Russia? I am not aware of any such vote in the whole history of Russia.
What's your definition of "liberal"? Various reformist and constitutionalist parties did quite well in Duma elections until 1917. I'm too lazy to look up the details though.
It's not just the US and UK sending anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the Swedes are sending their own AT4. It's made in Sweden by Saab Bofors.
(https://weaponews.com/images/2019/12/04/dae6be6e760c863ef2432021ee35c87b.jpg)
It seems that the Russians are loosing or simply leaving huge amounts of equipment. Besides the poor Russian logistics and tactics, the tanks also seem very vulnerable to a single person armed with such a weapon, or shots from drones. Apparently tanks, at least under the conditions of this war, could be loosing the importance they once had - like the knights did many centuries ago. As a crew member there, you're stuck in a fragile tin can, that can explode any minute.
And so it begins...
Fitch Ratings warns Russian bond default 'imminent' (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60672085)
Quote from: Que on March 08, 2022, 11:28:58 PM
And so it begins...
Fitch Ratings warns Russian bond default 'imminent' (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60672085)
What is the objective of all this economic war? How do EU and USA want it to end?
Quote from: Mandryka on March 08, 2022, 11:44:02 PM
What is the objective of all this economic war? How do EU and USA want it to end?
Yes, the Ukrainian army is not going to defeat the Russian army and chase them back to Moscow. A stalemate is the best that can be achieved. Either they put Putin in a position where he must accept a face-saving settlement in which he gets something but much less than he demanded, or they hope for regime change in Russia.
Quote from: "Harry" on March 08, 2022, 02:34:01 AM
I completely agree!
+1 I was moved by Zelensky's speech yesterday to a packed House of Commons.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60664488
Quote from: vandermolen on March 09, 2022, 12:14:46 AM
+1 I was moved by Zelensky's speech yesterday to a packed House of Commons.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60664488
He is a true hero in the purest form. I salute his courage and that of the Ukrainian people.
May they survive and conquer. My prayers are with all of them.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 08, 2022, 02:46:51 PM
What's your definition of "liberal"? Various reformist and constitutionalist parties did quite well in Duma elections until 1917. I'm too lazy to look up the details though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Democratic_Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Democratic_Party)
They did quite well when the various socialist parties boycotted the elections. In 1917 they got less than 5 % of the votes.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 08, 2022, 11:44:02 PM
What is the objective of all this economic war? How do EU and USA want it to end?
Even though Putin is not really winning, he holds all the cards. The economic warfare is aimed at balacing this.
Quote from: Que on March 09, 2022, 01:09:44 AM
Even though Putin is not really winning, he holds all the cards. The economic warfare is aimed at balacing this.
So when will sanctions end do you think?
Quote from: Mandryka on March 09, 2022, 01:22:15 AM
So when will sanctions end do you think?
When (if) Russian troops pull out of Ukraine.
Quote from: Que on March 09, 2022, 01:37:38 AM
When (if) Russian troops pull out of Ukraine.
They will be quietly dropped after this story has stopped grabbing the headlines.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 09, 2022, 01:59:35 AM
They will be quietly dropped after this story has stopped grabbing the headlines.
As fa as I know, none of the sanctions imposed right after and since the annexation of the Crimea has been lifted.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 08, 2022, 10:05:17 AM
Czech is about the hardest Slavic language, at least in my experience.
Ukraine is basically a bilingual country, with Russian predominating in the bigger cities and Ukrainian in the countryside and the western part (Galicia). However, what a lot of people speak on a daily basis is actually this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surzhyk
The initial lockdown period was the worst: no business trips, courts in Europe closed, everything dried up. Things have improved since then, but it's still not back to what it was, so I'm having to pursue other gigs in addition.
Not really, since it's been so long. Some years ago I discovered that one of my teachers in Kiev is now living in Philadelphia and running his own business. I've tried to get in contact with him, so far without success.
Mainly, I know a lot of post-Soviet people here in the Chicago area, most of them newish acquaintances. The lady whose house we had dinner at last Saturday is or was a citizen of Belarus, with a Russian father and a Ukrainian mother. A very typical situation in that part of the world, which underscores the fratricidal character of the current war.
Thank you for that link. Languages are fascinating: what they reveal about the culture, history, values, etc., are quite illuminating.
Do you and/or your Belorussian friend have any thoughts about what should and can be done to help Ukraine and the area in general? I'd be interested to hear them.
PD
Quote from: Que on March 09, 2022, 04:16:28 AM
As fa as I know, none of the sanctions imposed right after and since the annexation of the Crimea has been lifted.
Weak sanctions didn't work. Now we'll see what strong sanctions can do.
Putin can crush Ukraine if he commits elite forces not part of the invasion package. I judge, though, that these units will not be much more capable at the extremely difficult task of urban house to house combat than the invasion force is. When Russians leave their vehicles it's likely they will be scrounging for food or surrendering.
Putin has to be wary of his military commanders and the security services. Feeding the best Russian troops into the Ukrainian meat grinder could be the last straw. He has to be thinking along these lines unless he's in worse shape than he appears thinkwise.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 08, 2022, 06:05:30 AMit's the guarantee of non-pursuit, by anyone, for anything, that might sway his mind (but probably won't).
Who is "anyone"?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 08, 2022, 10:37:02 AMwith the internationally-agreed and UN-resolution-backed offer of legitimate dollars in large amounts and a guarantee of no future extradition
What are "legitimate dollars"?
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 08, 2022, 09:25:43 AM
What happened when Yeltsin made a hash of it? Putin, who no one had ever heard of, was appointed Prime Minister, within two months Yeltsin resigns, Putin is appointed President, his first act is to close all corruption investigations of Yeltsin, the second Chechen war, the election is moved up so no one has time to campaign, Putin is elected president. Yeltsin lives happily ever after, until his alcoholism catches up with him. If the oligarchs and the military decide Putin has outlived his usefulness I suspect a similar scenario. Actually the latest revision of the Russian constitution already includes provisions which prevent Putin from being held legally responsible for anything that happened when he was in office. Maybe Putin will actually get to ride in his super-Yacht.
This appears to be the most plausible non-treaty/international agreement outcome.
Quote from: Que on March 09, 2022, 01:37:38 AM
When (if) Russian troops pull out of Ukraine.
Whereas the withdrawal of Russian forces from all of Ukraine seems very unlikely.
Quote from: Que on March 09, 2022, 01:09:44 AM
Even though Putin is not really winning, he holds all the cards. The economic warfare is aimed at balacing this.
But with all manner of leaders watching, and long-standing grievances against US sanctions being held by even European powers, we are witnessing both the apogee of sanctions as a form of warfare and the beginning of the end of so much use of sanctions.
U.S. rejects Poland's offer to give it Russian-made fighter jets for Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-surprised-polands-decision-give-it-fighter-jets-ukraine-2022-03-08/)
This perfectly illustrates why the US should not continually expand military treaty obligations.
Oohh, ooh, I see a Uke Flanker taking off from a Romanian airfield escorted by a Romanian Fishbed. That's most excellent.
https://www.youtube.com/v/kNZxIIPLfWE
There are problems with the NATO strategy that will continue to plague it going forward. The US is far less vulnerable than Germany to energy blackmail.
So, why not give up and obsolete NATO for real? My guess is NATO countries don't think in terms of ideals and absolutes, but instead of better and worse outcomes. So far I see nothing mysterious in the decisions being made.
This story was quite shocking but a ray of light came out of it. A young father who is a restaurateur in Ukraine was wondering why he hadn't heard from his dad in Russia who eventually contacted him. His father would not believe what was happening in Ukraine due to what he was hearing over the Russian news media. But he came up with an idea to help spread the real news:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/09/russia-propaganda-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-newday-vpx.cnn
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 09, 2022, 05:32:03 AM
Do you and/or your Belorussian friend have any thoughts about what should and can be done to help Ukraine and the area in general? I'd be interested to hear them.
Not really. The people I know go to demonstrations, but that seems to be about all at the moment. Mainly they are afraid of any escalation and want a quick end to this.
Belorussians in Ukraine have formed a unit to fight the Russians. I suppose they are mostly refugees.
Latest distant family update. My wife's brothers's, wife's sister and niece have fled their home in Odessa, traveling to Moldova, and on to Finland where my wife's brother lives as a permanent resident, although he is a citizen of Russia. My wife's brother's wife's sister's husband, also in Odessa, is not permitted to leave, presumably because he must remain to participate in the defense of Ukraine.
My wife's mother, who also lives in Finland as a permanent resident and is supported by Finland's social welfare system, is a Putin true believer. She gets no information except for what supplied by the Putin-controlled media. She insists there is no war, Russia has simply intervened the eastern provinces to protect Russians who are being slaughtered en masse by Fascists in Ukraine, has no sympathy for refugees fleeing Ukraine because "it's their own fault."
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 09, 2022, 07:32:06 AM
Latest distant family update. My wife's brothers's, wife's sister and niece have fled their home in Odessa, traveling to Moldova, and on to Finland where my wife's brother lives as a permanent resident, although he is a citizen of Russia. My wife's brother's wife's sister's husband, also in Odessa, is not permitted to leave, presumably because he must remain to participate in the defense of Ukraine.
My wife's mother, who also lives in Finland as a permanent resident and is supported by Finland's social welfare system, is a Putin true believer. She gets no information except for what supplied by the Putin-controlled media. She insists there is no war, Russia has simply intervened the eastern provinces to protect Russians who are being slaughtered en masse by Fascists in Ukraine, has no sympathy for refugees fleeing Ukraine because "it's their own fault."
Wow! I'm very sorry to hear that your relatives are going through all of this, but glad that they made it out safely. Shocked to hear though that your MIL has been thinking that way though. Doesn't she ever listen to and/or watch any Finnish news or other news besides Russian? Or is it a language-barrier problem? I imagine that she speaks with her son? Or is it a health-related issue?
And I pray that your male relative manages to remain safe whilst the war is going on and he can be reunited with the rest of his family.
PD
Quote from: drogulus on March 09, 2022, 06:46:50 AM
Oohh, ooh, I see a Uke Flanker taking off from a Romanian airfield escorted by a Romanian Fishbed. That's most excellent.
https://www.youtube.com/v/kNZxIIPLfWE
Actually that's the plane that landed in Romania in the first day of the war and was returned to Ukraine a week ago if I'm not mistaken. The pilot is still under military investigation, suspected of actually being a Russian provocateur spy. ;D
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 09, 2022, 07:50:35 AM
Wow! I'm very sorry to hear that your relatives are going through all of this, but glad that they made it out safely. Shocked to hear though that your MIL has been thinking that way though. Doesn't she ever listen to and/or watch any Finnish news or other news besides Russian? Or is it a language-barrier problem? I imagine that she speaks with her son? Or is it a health-related issue?
And I pray that your male relative manages to remain safe whilst the war is going on and he can be reunited with the rest of his family.
PD
Thanks for your good thoughts. My MIL is like a Trump true believer, and thinks that any criticism of Putin is "fake news." She doesn't notice the cognitive dissonance, such as the fact that if she was still in Russia she would be facing near starvation, but in Finland, where her husband has worked as a scientist, she lives a comfortable retirement at state expense. I have an aunt like this, who is regularly suspended from facebook for posting Q-anon material, statements that Hillary Clinton runs a pedophile ring for fellow Democrats, etc.
Anyway, amid the media reports, I thought it would be of interest to contribute a data point from lived experience. Fortunately they are in Odessa, which has not been a focus of Russian military activity, yet.
Quote from: Florestan on March 09, 2022, 07:53:13 AM
Actually that's the plane that landed in Romania in the first day of the war and was returned to Ukraine a week ago if I'm not mistaken. The pilot is still under military investigation, suspected of actually being a Russian provocateur spy. ;D
BTW, I think Romania needs new jets.
Retired US and European military leaders advocate for advanced air defenses for Ukraine as a substitute for no-fly zone.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4fa73e25714b2f8f28e68cc91b677598
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 09, 2022, 07:32:06 AM
My wife's mother, who also lives in Finland as a permanent resident and is supported by Finland's social welfare system, is a Putin true believer. She gets no information except for what supplied by the Putin-controlled media. She insists there is no war, Russia has simply intervened the eastern provinces to protect Russians who are being slaughtered en masse by Fascists in Ukraine, has no sympathy for refugees fleeing Ukraine because "it's their own fault."
I find it strange that your wife's mother is only exposed to Putin-controlled media. How? I don't even know how she does it while living in Finland. Finnish broadcasting company YLE has even Russian News on TV, and it is not pro-Putin propaganda, but pretty much the same news that YLE broadcasts in Finnish. I know this, because the news have Finnish subtitles. I believe there's 58.000 Russians living in Finland and that's why YLE has dedicated news for them.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on March 09, 2022, 08:14:23 AM
Retired US and European military leaders advocate for advanced air defenses for Ukraine as a substitute for no-fly zone.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4fa73e25714b2f8f28e68cc91b677598
I would use retired military honchos to float trial balloons.
If Russia can't conquer Ukraine for all the evident reasons, it might be time to think about the Russian territory left weakly defended by the troop movements Russia used to create the invasion force. To be precise, I'm thinking about the formerly Chinese city now known as Vladivostok. The region used to be called Outer Manchuria. Russian imperialists took it around 1860.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on March 09, 2022, 08:14:23 AM
Retired US and European military leaders advocate for advanced air defenses for Ukraine as a substitute for no-fly zone.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4fa73e25714b2f8f28e68cc91b677598
Sounds sensible to me. It gets worse and worse with attack on maternity hospital in Mariupol (where my daughter worked with MSF).
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on March 09, 2022, 08:14:23 AM
Retired US and European military leaders advocate for advanced air defenses for Ukraine as a substitute for no-fly zone.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4fa73e25714b2f8f28e68cc91b677598
Does it survive the reality check?
https://www.youtube.com/v/Hob1nbP_UKM
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 09, 2022, 07:59:33 AM
Thanks for your good thoughts. My MIL is like a Trump true believer, and thinks that any criticism of Putin is "fake news." She doesn't notice the cognitive dissonance, such as the fact that if she was still in Russia she would be facing near starvation, but in Finland, where her husband has worked as a scientist, she lives a comfortable retirement at state expense. I have an aunt like this, who is regularly suspended from facebook for posting Q-anon material, statements that Hillary Clinton runs a pedophile ring for fellow Democrats, etc.
Anyway, amid the media reports, I thought it would be of interest to contribute a data point from lived experience. Fortunately they are in Odessa, which has not been a focus of Russian military activity, yet.
Well, it will be interesting to hear how she reacts to what her kids/relatives have to say once they meet up (if they haven't already). One can only hope.
I feel for countries like Romania, Poland and Moldova who are doing their best to help all of the refugees coming through. I did read of one family who were trying to get into England via Calais. From what I recall, the husband is British and they have a home in the UK but were stuck trying to get a Visa for his wife....and the closest (and I believe only) place that they can get help from is located in Paris.
PD
PD
How Europe's addiction to Russian gas fuelled the Ukraine crisis
Years of naivety, complacency and fuel dependency have left the EU strategically weak
(https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/how-europe-s-addiction-to-russian-gas-fuelled-the-ukraine-crisis-1.4812014)
Quote from: Mandryka on March 09, 2022, 08:43:57 AM
Does it survive the reality check?
https://www.youtube.com/v/Hob1nbP_UKM
I assume these people, with differential nationalities and party affiliations, are highly knowledgeable about technical matters in military conflicts. They maybe right. Secondly, the recommendation is a somewhat middle of the road option between the status quo and no-fly zone. Even if it failed to exert a strong impact, its political/fiscal cost is smaller than the cost of the status quo.
In the mean time, the below is Zelensky's comment on the impasse between Poland and the USA over Migs.
"Listen, we have a war! We do not have time for all these signals," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a recent address. "This is not ping pong! It's about human lives! We ask once again: Solve it faster. Do not shift the responsibility, send us planes."
https://www.president.gov.ua/news/ukrayinci-vistoyali-j-nadihnuli-ves-svit-svoyeyu-rishuchisty-73457
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 07, 2022, 01:40:17 PM
There are reports, as yet unverified, that Russia will cut off access to all foreign internet, keeping only Russian websites and servers, within maybe a week, perhaps around March 11th-12th.
They already did a general, countrywide test of that concept in April 2019.
Forgot to mention that if so, some suggest that comprehensive Russian cyber attacks might take place elsewhere, when they have isolated themselves into, what would also be a 'cyber fortress', besides 'just' hindering information from the outside world. Maybe including sabotage of cables etc.
NATO does not have to engage with the Russian SAMNet. It doesn't have to fly over well defended territory in order to shoot down planes attacking Ukraine. The goal would be to render Russian air power even more ineffective than it presently is, and make it nearly impossible for Russian attackers to operate over most of Ukrainian territory.
A couple of links of interest. First, "A Postcard from Petersburg" gives an on-the-ground look at some of the current goings-on in that city:
https://therussianreader.com/2022/03/09/postcard-from-petersburg-fear-and-despair/
If you have 83 minutes to spare, I recommend this episode of Radio War Nerd. They go into detail on the economic war, i.e. the sanctions, counter-sanctions and their potential consequences:
https://podcastaddict.com/episode/136535208
Quote from: drogulus on March 09, 2022, 10:01:07 AM
NATO does not have to engage with the Russian SAMNet. It doesn't have to fly over well defended territory in order to shoot down planes attacking Ukraine. The goal would be to render Russian air power even more ineffective than it presently is, and make it nearly impossible for Russian attackers to operate over most of Ukrainian territory.
This would make a nuclear war, with smaller bombs for a start, much more likely. Besides widespread annihilation in Europe, the US is also less protected, than some might think.
A. Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO secretary, thinks that it would mean that the war would be spreading - and he is traditionally a 'hawk'.
Quote from: Florestan on March 09, 2022, 08:53:26 AM
How Europe's addiction to Russian gas fuelled the Ukraine crisis
Years of naivety, complacency and fuel dependency have left the EU strategically weak
(https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/how-europe-s-addiction-to-russian-gas-fuelled-the-ukraine-crisis-1.4812014)
Well, I'm not so harsh. As we all know, bad omens are preferably and conveniently ignored.
But sofar every cris has made the EU only stronger.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 09, 2022, 10:12:12 AM
This would make a nuclear war, with smaller bombs for a start, much more likely. Besides widespread annihilation in Europe, the US is also less protected, than some might think.
A. Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO secretary, thinks that it would mean that the war would be spreading - and he is traditionally a 'hawk'.
That's understood. Enhancing Ukrainian air defense by other means may be the best option.
I don't presume to know how much communication is going on between NATO and the Russian military high command.
* I'm sure they talk to each other.
* (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/tongue.gif)
European stocks rally on best day in nearly two years as Ukraine's president cools to NATO membership (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-rally-as-ukraines-president-cools-to-nato-membership-11646814770)
Quote from: Todd on March 09, 2022, 11:17:06 AM
European stocks rally on best day in nearly two years as Ukraine's president cools to NATO membership (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-rally-as-ukraines-president-cools-to-nato-membership-11646814770)
This is either the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 09, 2022, 11:35:13 AM
Erm. It means "any one". As in, any human person, or corporation, or government entity... or any *thing* one can envisage that might want to prosecute the bastard.
Human persons and corporations do not generally have the legal authority to prosecute individuals or other entities, unless you can cite specific cases where this is legally possible. They may be able to bring civil suits in some jurisdictions. Is that what you mean? If so, I am not sure what value those have in this instance, or what enforcement mechanisms may exist. Perhaps you can elaborate.
In terms of criminal prosecution, very few entities have the ability to prosecute heads of state. The ICC might attempt to, but other than that, do you envision prosecution within the Russian legal system, or do you envision an expansion of extraterritoriality to allow for prosecution by some other sovereign nation state? If so, which nation state? Ukraine? Perhaps you mean that some type of war tribunal should be set up to prosecute Putin and those who support him. Your posts do not make this clear.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 09, 2022, 11:35:13 AMErm. They are dollar amounts awarded by UN mandate or other intergovernmental treaties, free from encumbrance or risk of prosecution because they have been awarded to an individual by treaty or other inter-governmental agreement, and thus free from all possibility of involuntary assignment or confiscation, seizure or forfeiture.
Can you cite any precedent for the UN doing what you describe? I would also be interested in knowing what type of treaty might be able to be established to achieve what you suggest, and how non-signatories would be handled.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 09, 2022, 11:35:13 AMAre you having a problem with the English language?
No.
OECD suspends Russia, Belarus from any participation (https://thehill.com/policy/finance/597443-oecd-suspends-russia-belarus-from-any-participation)
Quote from: Tobias Burns
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday announced it had suspended Russia and Belarus from any participation in its organization...
Russia and Belarus are not official members of the Paris-based group...
Oh, here's a thing. Putin feared Ukraine would join the EU, something Ukraine planned to do. That, not NATO membership, was the near term horror. It would mean Ukrainian advances in prosperity and the kind of democratic civil society that no respectable tyrant could tolerate just across the border. It would give ordinary Russians ideas above their stations.
Thing II: The Baltic states are NATO members and have almost no weaponry at all. Ukraine is not a NATO member and gets attacked. Ohhhhkay....
Does he want to be remembered as the modern Catherine the Great or Peter the Great?
Does he turn the phrase "Vladimir The Great" over and over in his mind?
For informational purposes: a possible precedent
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictment_and_arrest_of_Augusto_Pinochet
Another one... :P
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idi_Amin#Deposition_and_exile
Surprisingly many parallels could be adduced...for instance, early in the Wiki article we find
Amin's rule was characterised by rampant human rights abuses, including political repression, ethnic persecution and extrajudicial killings, as well as nepotism, corruption, and gross economic mismanagement.
I heard just today that insiders described him as obsessed and terrified by the fate of Gaddafi. And of that of Saddam Houssein.
"Insiders" who talk that way are by definition not insiders.
I wish people would stop talking about Pute as if he's crazy or insane.
That implies there is no other way out than an assassination and that clearly is not going to happen.
It's lazy.
Watched Lavrov's presser. He lied to the left, he lied to the right, he lied to the center and on top of lies put more lies --- not that I expected anything else, of course. Russian cynicism and their mockery of the whole world is staggering.
Quote from: Florestan on March 10, 2022, 02:04:14 AM
Watched Lavrov's presser. He lied to the left, he lied to the right, he lied to the center and on top of lies put more lies --- not that I expected anything else, of course. Russian cynicism and their mockery of the whole world is staggering.
Yes, a professional liar, and to an exceptional degree.
Headlines here in DK are, that Lavrov said '... but we haven't attacked Ukraine at all', etc.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 10, 2022, 03:48:13 AM
Yes, a professional lier, and to an exceptional degree.
Headlines here in DK are, that Lavrov said '... but we haven't attacked Ukraine at all', etc.
His role reminds me of
Tariq Aziz (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariq_Aziz), or
Donald Rumsfeld (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Rumsfeld)...
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 10, 2022, 03:48:13 AM
Yes, a professional lier, and to an exceptional degree.
Headlines here in DK are, that Lavrov said '... but we haven't attacked Ukraine at all', etc.
A Romanian newspaper inspiredly called him Zhavrov, a pun on the Romanian word of abuse
javră (pronounced approximately zha-vruh) which means scumbag.
Quote from: JBS on March 09, 2022, 06:20:48 PM
For informational purposes: a possible precedent
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictment_and_arrest_of_Augusto_Pinochet
Quote from: T. D. on March 09, 2022, 06:57:29 PM
Another one... :P
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idi_Amin#Deposition_and_exile
Maybe St Helena can be repurposed.
Quote from: Florestan on March 10, 2022, 02:04:14 AM
Watched Lavrov's presser. He lied to the left, he lied to the right, he lied to the center and on top of lies put more lies --- not that I expected anything else, of course. Russian cynicism and their mockery of the whole world is staggering.
Have they found WMD yet? Sorry, wrong war and wrong lies.
Quote from: Todd on March 10, 2022, 05:48:22 AM
Have they found WMD yet? Sorry, wrong war and wrong lies.
Different war, same lies....
In a tweet, the Russian Embassy referred to claims that "recently found documents" showed components of biological weapons were made in Ukrainian laboratories - with funding from the US Department of Defense.
The US dismissed the claims, saying it was the "kind of disinformation operation we've seen repeatedly from the Russians over the years in Ukraine and in other countries".
Russian officials and media have also claimed in recent days that Ukraine was planning to build a so-called dirty bomb - which disperses radioactive material.
Meanwhile Russia's foreign minister has claimed Ukraine had been seeking nuclear weapons.https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60683248
It gives me no pleasure in saying this, but the parallels with the Iraq invasion are rather striking and unsettling...
Quote from: Que on March 10, 2022, 06:00:14 AM
Different war, same lies....
In a tweet, the Russian Embassy referred to claims that "recently found documents" showed components of biological weapons were made in Ukrainian laboratories - with funding from the US Department of Defense.
The US dismissed the claims, saying it was the "kind of disinformation operation we've seen repeatedly from the Russians over the years in Ukraine and in other countries".
Russian officials and media have also claimed in recent days that Ukraine was planning to build a so-called dirty bomb - which disperses radioactive material.
Meanwhile Russia's foreign minister has claimed Ukraine had been seeking nuclear weapons.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60683248
It gives me no pleasure in saying this, but the parallels with the Iraq invasion are rather striking and unsettling...
At least Bush and Rumsfeld never claimed that they didn't attack Iraq.
Quote from: Florestan on March 10, 2022, 06:04:38 AM
At least Bush and Rumsfeld never claimed that they didn't attack Iraq.
But they didn't have permission of the UN Security Council and they didn't have just cause.
With the invasion of Iraq the US and the UK crossed a legal and moral line that is now coming to haunt them.
Quote from: Que on March 10, 2022, 06:11:17 AM
With the invasion of Iraq the US and the UK crossed a legal and moral line that is now coming to haunt them.
Agreed. Kosovo and the bombing of Serbia too.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 10, 2022, 06:14:47 AMI am postulating an entirely fantastical situation...
I am fantasising...
Some people enjoy rich fantasy lives, it is true.
Quote from: Que on March 10, 2022, 06:11:17 AM
But they didn't have permission of the UN Security Council and they didn't have just cause.
With the invasion of Iraq the US and the UK crossed a legal and moral line that is now coming to haunt them.
UN approval is a nice to have, not a must have. Future historians will note the UN's practical irrelevance in stopping great powers and even lesser powers from slaughtering whomever they choose. They will also note the ICC's selective prosecution record for obvious misdeeds. Some people see that now.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 10, 2022, 03:48:13 AM
Yes, a professional liar, and to an exceptional degree.
Headlines here in DK are, that Lavrov said '... but we haven't attacked Ukraine at all', etc.
Teddy Roosevelt once remarked to the effect that Russians will even lie when it is not in their best interest. It's become so prevalent in their day-to-living that it's become unremarkable and expected:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2012/10/22/why-lying-has-become-a-national-pastime-a18754
Biological Threat Reduction Program
The U.S. Department of Defense's Biological Threat Reduction Program collaborates with partner countries to counter the threat of outbreaks (deliberate, accidental, or natural) of the world's most dangerous infectious diseases. The program accomplishes its bio-threat reduction mission through development of a bio-risk management culture; international research partnerships; and partner capacity for enhanced bio-security, bio-safety, and bio-surveillance measures. The Biological Threat Reduction Program's priorities in Ukraine are to consolidate and secure pathogens and toxins of security concern and to continue to ensure Ukraine can detect and report outbreaks caused by dangerous pathogens before they pose security or stability threats.
Current executive agents of the Biological Threat Reduction Program in Ukraine are the Ministry of Health, the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection, the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences, and the Ministry of Defense.
Active Research Projects
BTRP supports many collaborative research projects through which Ukrainian and American scientists work together. A few recent examples are:
"Risk Assessment of Selected Avian EDPs Potentially Carried by Migratory Birds over Ukraine"
"Prevalence of Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever virus and hantaviruses in Ukraine and the potential requirement for differential diagnosis of suspect leptospirosis patients"
"The Spread of African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) in Domestic Pigs and Wild Boars in Ukraine – Building Capacity for Insight into the Transmission of ASFV through Characterization of Virus Isolates by Genome Sequencing and Phylogenetic Analysis"
"ASFBiosurveillanceand ASF Regional Risk Assessment: A Field to Plate Survey"
Denmark opens its arms to Ukrainians, while trying to send Syrian refugees home (https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/10/europe/denmark-refugees-ukraine-syrian-intl/index.html)
Biden admn has been skeptical/passive about the allegation of war crimes by Putin. I was wondering if it's because Biden is worried that such a legal case against Putin at the ICC would elevate the public opinion for a war crime charge against Bush and Cheney.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on March 10, 2022, 02:18:35 PM
Biden admn has been skeptical/passive about the allegation of war crimes by Putin. I was wondering if it's because Biden is worried that such a legal case against Putin at the ICC would elevate the public opinion for a war crime charge against Bush and Cheney.
Convene the corpse synod now!
Seriously though, didn't VP Harris just say today that Putin should definitely be investigated for war crimes?
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on March 10, 2022, 02:18:35 PMI was wondering if it's because Biden is worried that such a legal case against Putin at the ICC would elevate the public opinion for a war crime charge against Bush and Cheney.
All presidential administrations engage in acts that could be construed as war crimes. Even the Biden Administration - eg, seven dead children from one drone strike.
If only Ukraine could put Putin on the ignore list. In any case, shall we rename the thread GMG at war, or get back on topic?
This looks desperate...
"Vladimir Putin has said Russia must welcome volunteers who want to fight Ukrainian forces and help them to get to combat areas"
Looks like Pute is going to do to Uke what he did to Aleppo, Syria. Just shell the living daylights out of the cities and return the country to the Stone Age.
Those reports about the Russian army failing logistically and strategically make me very uncomfortable, because it doesn't really matter to Pute how many Russian soldiers die. He controls the domestic media, so no one in Russia will ever know.
He's just going to pound the place into submission.
That's why I'm also deeply uncomfortable about Zelensky's heroic 'We will not back down'. It's the same as with that story about thirteen guys on that island saying 'fuck you' to the Russians and getting killed. Fortunately the story wasn't true, but I really have no idea where wisdom lies in this situation. A hundred thousand Ukrainians may die, but in the end Pute will prevail; or we'll have WW3.
I agree, the situation is very worrisome.
There seems to be no incentive for Putin to back down, only to escalate further and further.
Looking at the narrative the Russian are trying to spin in recent days, his next step will be the use of chemical and biological weapons.
I wonder if Zelensky has considered playing the long game by agreeing to a cease fire at Russian terms to avoid further destruction and loss of life, and then wait and see what will happen in the next few years.
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 02:19:43 AM
I agree, the situation is very worrisome.
There seems to be no incentive for Putin to back down, only to escalate further and further.
Looking at the narrative the Russian are trying to spin in recent days, his next step will be the use of chemical and biological weapons.
I wonder if Zelensky has considered playing the long game by agreeing to a cease fire at Russian terms to avoid further destruction and loss of life, and then wait and see what will happen in the next few years.
This will never happen, it's simply not in their frame of mind to stop fighting, or no option if you prefer. This is what my Ukrainian refugee is telling me. They will give their life to stop Poetin and his murderous band of puppets.
This is heading for a total break down of any economic relations, with confiscation of state assets and nationalisation of private assets (on both sides):
Russia plans to seize assets of western companies that pull out (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/russia-plans-to-seize-assets-of-western-companies-exiting-country)
Western banks and investors with exposure in Russia are going to take a major hit....
Quote from: "Harry" on March 11, 2022, 02:32:19 AM
This will never happen, it's simply not in their frame of mind to stop fighting, or no option if you prefer. This is what my Ukrainian refugee is telling me. They will give their life to stop Poetin and his murderous band of puppets.
Their fierce and heroic resistance against the Russian invaders rightly won them the support, admiration and respect of the whole world. Morally they have already won this war. The question, though, is this: are they willing to endure an enormous death toll among civilians, the complete shelling of the main cities, Kiev included and an increasing risk of nuclear power plant catastrophe in order to achieve basically nothing or very little, because let's face it: they can stall the Russian advance but they can't repel the Russian Army back within Russian borders; they will never join NATO, Crimea had been already lost and the only relative freedom of negotiation they have is over Luganks and Donetsk. A resistance to the bitter end wil leave UKraine in complete ruins, outside NATO and without Crimea and Lugansk/Donetsk, and with possibly as much as 10% of the population fled to other countries and it will take decades to rebuild both the infrastructure and the economy (which may be the case already). Is it a reasonable price to pay for showing the whole world their patriotism and heroism, both of which they already displayed aplenty? I'm just asking.
Quote from: Florestan on March 11, 2022, 03:44:36 AM
Their fierce and heroic resistance against the Russian invaders rightly won them the support, admiration and respect of the whole world. Morally they have already won this war. The question, though, is this: are they willing to endure an enormous death toll among civilians, the complete shelling of the main cities, Kiev included and an increasing risk of nuclear power plant catastrophe in order to achieve basically nothing or very little, because let's face it: they can stall the Russian advance but they can't repel the Russian Army back within Russian borders; they will never join NATO, Crimea had been already lost and the only relative freedom of negotiation they have is over Luganks and Donetsk. A resistance to the bitter end wil leave UKraine in complete ruins, outside NATO and without Crimea and Lugansk/Donetsk, and with possibly as much as 10% of the population fled to other countries and it will take decades to rebuild both the infrastructure and the economy (which may be the case already). Is it a reasonable price to pay for showing the whole world their patriotism and heroism, both of which they already displayed aplenty? I'm just asking.
She says yes. Loosing your birth ground is as loosing your soul. She is but one voice, but I think she speaks for all. Your assessment of the present situation is correct. But our husbands are on the battlefield and will not stop before they are dead, and those that come in their place until none are left. Her words.
It's encouraging to see the Russian blitzkrieg failed to achieve a swift victory in the face of determined resistance. NATO will be learning how best to defend against them if they haven't already been put off invading anybody else.
QuoteWitness this army of such mass and charge
Led by a delicate and tender prince,
Whose spirit with divine ambition puff'd
Makes mouths at the invisible event,
Exposing what is mortal and unsure
To all that fortune, death and danger dare,
Even for an egg-shell. Rightly to be great
Is not to stir without great argument,
But greatly to find quarrel in a straw
When honour's at the stake.
. . .
I see
The imminent death of twenty thousand men,
That, for a fantasy and trick of fame,
Go to their graves like beds, fight for a plot
Whereon the numbers cannot try the cause,
Which is not tomb enough and continent
To hide the slain?
The problem with a Russian victory is that it will show the world that unless you have nuclear weapons or are a member of NATO, you are fair game. Note that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for Russian guarantees of its territorial integrity. Now we all know what those were worth...
Govts of some countries in Europe and many more in South-East Asia are going to be very concerned.
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 04:41:46 AM
The problem with a Russian victory is that it will show the world that unless you . . . are a member of NATO, you are fair game.
Hmmmm
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 11, 2022, 04:31:19 AM
Well, I think if NATO ever gets into a shooting war with Russia, none of us will need to have learnt any lessons. To paraphrase Stanley Baldwin, the nuclear bombs will always get through... :(
It would have to be purely defensive, no way could NATO troops move into Russian territory. At least the iron curtain has moved considerably to the east.
G7 nations draw up plans to impose heavy tariffs on Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/g7-nations-drawing-up-plans-impose-heavy-tariffs-russia-ukraine)
I'm wondering if "heavy tariffs" will be good enough...
When (and not: if) Russia deploys chemical and biological weapons and nationalises Western assets, only a full and total trade ban will do.
Western allies don't need to declare war on Russia, it has been waging war against them for a long time.
As I suggested in the title of the thread, Europe is already at war... with Russia.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 11, 2022, 04:47:22 AM
Hmmmm
Well yes, even that might be debatable....depending on how this develops.
Will the US go to war with Russia over Latvia? ::)
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 04:58:23 AM
Will the US go to war with Russia over Latvia? ::)
I think they'd have to defend Latvia although with the clearly stated aim of stopping once the Russian invading forces had been pushed back over the border. Otherwise what would be the point of anyone else being in NATO?
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 04:58:23 AM
(...)
Will the US go to war with Russia over Latvia? ::)
Yes.
I thought this collection of Russians reacting to the news was interesting. Wide range of thoughts from outrage to complete support of Putin. It's tough when an authoritarian regime controls the media and outlaws any free press.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kELta9MLOzg
Quote from: steve ridgway on March 11, 2022, 05:04:02 AM
I think they'd have to defend Latvia although with the clearly stated aim of stopping once the Russian invading forces had been pushed back over the border. Otherwise what would be the point of anyone else being in NATO?
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 11, 2022, 05:40:16 AM
Yes.
Agreed, I think so too.
Although if Trump would get reelected, I would be less certain - and so would Putin.
It is impossible to describe how dispiriting this is. Putin's plan was that the Ukrainian military would capitulate, and since the Russian military has failed to defeat the Ukrainian military they have resorted to terrorism, targeting civilians to try to demoralize the military. I don't want to think about how this will end.
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 06:35:06 AM
Agreed, I think so too.
Although if Trump would get reelected, I would be less certain - and so would Putin.
Probably. I haven't followed Trump's popularity in the US in recent weeks, but apparently he is behaving as usual, with weird public statements, and he is experiencing some legal setbacks - yet seemingly, they don't materialize in any serious, final verdicts against him. As usual. Also, GOP opposition to him has maybe-maybe been strengthened a bit ...
In Russia, the FSB officers responsible for evaluating the situation in Ukraine, in relation to the invasion plans, have apparently been placed under house arrests. Their work was unsatisfying, to say the least.
Lavrov's luxury lifestyle:
https://twitter.com/pevchikh
https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3n8je/russia-polina-kovaleva-lifestyle
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 04:58:23 AM
Well yes, even that might be debatable....depending on how this develops.
Will the US go to war with Russia over Latvia? ::)
An invasion of Latvia would be a strong signal to neighboring states that they are at war. It would be accompanied by other signals and there would be no doubt concerning their meaning.
You could try to run a thought experiment where Russia attacks Latvia for some reason unrelated to ones we know. What would be the point of that?
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 04:41:46 AMNote that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for Russian garantuees of its territorial integrity. Now we all know what those were worth...
And The West agreed to not expand NATO. Duplicity is standard behavior in international relations.
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 04:54:24 AM
G7 nations draw up plans to impose heavy tariffs on Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/g7-nations-drawing-up-plans-impose-heavy-tariffs-russia-ukraine)
I'm wondering if "heavy tariffs" will be good enough...
The more important part of this action is that it represents a willingness to revert to old school mercantilism quickly, something that will not be lost on Asian powers observing this situation. With the WTO already significantly hobbled before this war began, and economic siege warfare now a policy tool, the post-war "free trade" system is eroding at an accelerating pace.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 11, 2022, 05:40:16 AM
Yes.
Blinken say yes. I would not bet the farm on that.
Quote from: Todd on March 11, 2022, 07:16:14 AM
The more important part of this action is that it represents a willingness to revert to old school mercantilism quickly, something that will not be lost on Asian powers observing this situation. With the WTO already significantly hobbled before this war began, and economic siege warfare now a policy tool, the post-war "free trade" system is eroding at an accelerating pace.
Well, yes. I guess we're realising that we run the risk of supporting our own downfall by sharing our financial and intellectual resources with parties that do not share our values.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 11, 2022, 06:53:29 AM
It is impossible to describe how dispiriting this is. Putin's plan was that the Ukrainian military would capitulate, and since the Russian military has failed to defeat the Ukrainian military they have resorted to terrorism, targeting civilians to try to demoralize the military. I don't want to think about how this will end.
I'm no kind of military expert, but I've been thinking about a few things.
People are saying that if Russia can't win a quick victory, they will simply destroy cities, the way they destroyed Grozny (Chechnya). First, Kiev is something like 8-10 times larger than Grozny. I don't know if it's even possible to "scale up" like that.
Second, cities like Kiev and Odessa have an iconic status in Russian culture. Kiev in particular is a sacred city to Slavic Orthodox people; it's "the Mother of Rus Cities." It's like Rome is for Catholics. Bombarding these cities into smithereens would have an immeasurable traumatic impact on huge numbers of people.
Napoleon said that in war "the moral is to the physical as ten is to one." I'm getting reports (which I can't confirm, granted) that a lot of the Russian soldiers are confused and dismayed about being put in this position. They were lied to, or kept in the dark until the crucial moment. Assuming this is true, how long can the situation last?
Meanwhile (based on other unconfirmed reports I'm getting) Putin has already destroyed or neutralized whatever pro-Russian forces still existed in Ukraine. Such sentiment used to be widespread. Back around 2009 I saw polls indicating that the most popular politician in Ukraine was ... Putin! This was probably more an expression of frustration with their own leaders at the time, but still, things were different. Now, Putin is turning previously moderate Central Ukrainians into Galician nationalists.
Quote from: Que on March 10, 2022, 11:49:46 PM
This looks desperate...
"Vladimir Putin has said Russia must welcome volunteers who want to fight Ukrainian forces and help them to get to combat areas"
Now Putin looks even more desperate...
Syria recruiting troops from its military to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/putin-approves-russian-use-of-middle-east-fighters-against-ukraine)
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 07:24:47 AM
Well, yes. I guess we're realising that we run the risk of supporting our own downfall by sharing our financial and intellectual resources with parties that do not share our values.
Trump was right-ish. "America First" - aka, economic nationalism - is the, or at least a major part of a, practical path forward. Fortunately or unfortunately, take your pick. I suppose it will be very hard for people to accept that Trump stated anything with any truth to it, though they can take solace in the fact that he was not the first and only person to do so. For instance, from the very un-Trumpian Larry Summers: Voters deserve responsible nationalism not reflex globalism (http://larrysummers.com/?s=responsible+nationalism) (It is a weathervane piece, to be sure.) Of course, Summers' even more formidable uncle criticized free trade even earlier, if that helps. Various groups have criticized free trade since forever.
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 07:40:38 AM
Now Putin looks even more desperate...
Mercenaries have been used for millennia. The US at least has the good sense to outsource to more wholesomely named Private Military Contractors.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 11, 2022, 07:30:01 AM
I'm no kind of military expert, but I've been thinking about a few things.
(...)
Second, cities like Kiev and Odessa have an iconic status in Russian culture. Kiev in particular is a sacred city to Slavic Orthodox people; it's "the Mother of Rus Cities." It's like Rome is for Catholics. Bombarding these cities into smithereens would have an immeasurable traumatic impact on huge numbers of people.
(...)
True. Also, Lviv, though with a more mixed background, mainly Polish and much less Russian, is culturally and architecturally of major importance. There's a vast historical centre, and it would a gigantic loss, if bombings take place. Locals have now started to protect the art treasures and outdoor sculptures with various covers etc. Btw it has a rich classical music tradition, like Odessa.
Something to look forward to?
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says Russia's attack could be the start of a multiyear 'Super Cold War' — and explains how that isn't doom for stock markets (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-russia-ukraine-attack-stock-market-outlook-cold-war-2022-3)
Quote from: Shalini Nagarajan
Grantham noted that wars can set in process a lot of capital expenditure and drive the development of new products — "a lot of war profiteering, if you will."
"So it isn't necessarily doom for the stock market. It's a miserable time for everybody else, but then in wartime, people do work harder and produce more."
That can have a follow-on boost for the economies of the countries involved in combat, the veteran investor suggested.
"World War II really pumped up the US, in particular for the next 20 years," he said.
Part of the point of collective defense, though only part, is that aggressors are disinclined to bet their own farms.
Small states have limited choices, but I would suggest that large states operate within constraints that are rational. To what extent do "expendable" buffer states prevent major war, and what happens when the distance between Russia and NATO is closed from the east? I feel like we've been here before.
Quote from: Todd on March 11, 2022, 07:16:14 AM
Blinken say yes.
So said Kamala Harris, in both Warsaw and Bucharest.
Do you imply that both the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS are liars and should be trusted no more than Putin or Lavrov?
Quote from: drogulus on March 11, 2022, 08:30:32 AM
(...) closed from the east? (...)
China is apparently reducing its modest support for Russia in this conflict; it can't do without the West. Same with Kazakhstan, who's now quietly supporting Ukraine more. Which makes one think - in case of an almost total closure of trade between the West and Russia - China will have to revise parts of their new Silk Road planning, and try to decipher oncoming tendencies. The southern links, that include Kazakhstan, become even more important for corridors to the West.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/why-china-is-building-a-new-silk-road/
Quote from: Florestan on March 11, 2022, 08:42:03 AM
So said Kamala Harris, in both Warsaw and Bucharest.
Do you imply that both the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS are liars and should be trusted no more than Putin or Lavrov?
Interesting conundrum: what does a pot-stirring troll "imply?"
Quote from: Florestan on March 11, 2022, 08:42:03 AM
So said Kamala Harris, in both Warsaw and Bucharest.
Do you imply that both the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS are liars and should be trusted no more than Putin or Lavrov?
One can trust Harris and Blinken more than Putin and Lavrov.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 11, 2022, 07:30:01 AM
People are saying that if Russia can't win a quick victory, they will simply destroy cities, the way they destroyed Grozny (Chechnya). First, Kiev is something like 8-10 times larger than Grozny. I don't know if it's even possible to "scale up" like that.
Second, cities like Kiev and Odessa have an iconic status in Russian culture. Kiev in particular is a sacred city to Slavic Orthodox people; it's "the Mother of Rus Cities." It's like Rome is for Catholics. Bombarding these cities into smithereens would have an immeasurable traumatic impact on huge numbers of people.
Destroying Kiev was not in Pute's original plan, but if he needs to choose between his own historical stature and that of Kiev, he'll opt for the former.
Remember, he controls the (Russian) media. People hardly know what's going on. He'll just blame the Ukrainians.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 11, 2022, 07:03:00 AM
(...)
In Russia, the FSB officers responsible for evaluating the situation in Ukraine, in relation to the invasion plans, have apparently been placed under house arrests. Their work was unsatisfying, to say the least.
(...)
Some alleged details ... traitors in the FSB leaking info to Western sources ?? Ransacking of 20 FSB offices, by the Presidential Security Organization ...
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1502345407350730755
Russian planes just attacked a Belorussian village from the Ukraine side. We are all fooled by this, yes?
My brain has not yet been Tulsified, so I need more evidence. Tell me more about the labs! I go all wobbly about NATO biowarfare.
Quote from: drogulus on March 11, 2022, 09:45:08 AM
Russian planes just attacked a Belorussian village from the Ukraine side. We are all fooled by this, yes?
(...)
With the Russians needing more strength, Ukrainian authorities are now warning that Belarus might attack Ukraine very soon as well.
It was only a couple of days ago, that Ukraine said that the direct Belarus threat had diminished into nearly nothing, and that there was less to worry about than previously.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 11, 2022, 07:30:01 AMPutin has already destroyed or neutralized whatever pro-Russian forces still existed in Ukraine. Such sentiment used to be widespread. Back around 2009 I saw polls indicating that the most popular politician in Ukraine was ... Putin! This was probably more an expression of frustration with their own leaders at the time, but still, things were different. Now, Putin is turning previously moderate Central Ukrainians into Galician nationalists.
I've noticed this too. Of course I assume
popularity in Ukraine is orthogonal to his goals; he simply wants a Donetsk/Luhansk-based client state that can act as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO/EU, and doesn't care if it has any political legitimacy with its own citizens. But the extent to which he's torpedoed not only his own personal popularity but also a good deal of the historical attachment between eastern Ukrainians and Russia—and, it must be said, that's not just due to this higher-intensity phase of the war; this has been ongoing since 2014—is pretty remarkable and may be what ends up defeating Russia in the end. Nonviolent civilian resistance has already forced Russian units to withdraw from various towns and cities.
(People I've spoken to who are familiar with the situation in Donetsk claim that this is partly because, in 2014, they fully expected Russian tanks to roll across the border and end the conflict any day soon, and grew disillusioned over time when this never happened; partly because, in the intervening eight years, separatist leaders who supported the independence of the DPR/LPR, or a federalist solution within Ukraine, or even simply a peaceful resolution of hostilities, experienced a suspiciously high rate of assassination and mysterious accident, invariably being replaced by Putin loyalists. There's also the matter of the widespread hatred for Poroshenko, who was viewed as a neo-fascist dictator just a step down from the Azov Battalion, whereas Zelensky was not only viewed much more positively—and as a hopeful candidate for potential rapprochement between Donetsk/Luhansk and the rest of Ukraine—but won a significant majority of the vote in non-separatist areas of the two oblasts. i.e., without the threat of a Poroshenko hanging over people's heads, Putin started to look much less appealing.)
I haven't been following the war news for the last few days, largely because things have turned into absolutely brutal urban warfare—as I thought they would without a quick ceasefire—and I honestly just don't have the stomach to look at dead bodies and such.
Quote from: amw on March 11, 2022, 05:19:36 PM
he simply wants a Donetsk/Luhansk-based client state that can act as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO/EU
Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.
Quote from: drogulus on March 11, 2022, 09:45:08 AM
Russian planes just attacked a Belorussian village from the Ukraine side. We are all fooled by this, yes?
My brain has not yet been Tulsified, so I need more evidence. Tell me more about the labs! I go all wobbly about NATO biowarfare.
I don't understand why the Russians still bother to create all these pretexts, unless it is just for domestic consumption...
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 11:18:06 PM
Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.
Of course. Had he simply wanted Donetsk and Lugansk he'd have sent the tanks only there --- actually, that's what I expected him to do, and I think I'm not alone in that.
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 11:18:06 PM
Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.
Quote from: Florestan on March 12, 2022, 02:32:56 AM
Of course. Had he simply wanted Donetsk and Lugansk he'd have sent the tanks only there --- actually, that's what I expected him to do, and I think I'm not alone in that.
Surprise, surprise. ...
'pseudo referendum' in Kherson
Russian forces are reportedly planning to conduct a "pseudo referendum" in Kherson, the Ukrainian city under Russian occupation.
The deputy head of the local council in Kherson told Reuters that it wants to create a new breakaway republic.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 11, 2022, 07:30:01 AM
I'm no kind of military expert, but I've been thinking about a few things.
People are saying that if Russia can't win a quick victory, they will simply destroy cities, the way they destroyed Grozny (Chechnya). First, Kiev is something like 8-10 times larger than Grozny. I don't know if it's even possible to "scale up" like that.
Second, cities like Kiev and Odessa have an iconic status in Russian culture. Kiev in particular is a sacred city to Slavic Orthodox people; it's "the Mother of Rus Cities." It's like Rome is for Catholics. Bombarding these cities into smithereens would have an immeasurable traumatic impact on huge numbers of people.
Napoleon said that in war "the moral is to the physical as ten is to one." I'm getting reports (which I can't confirm, granted) that a lot of the Russian soldiers are confused and dismayed about being put in this position. They were lied to, or kept in the dark until the crucial moment. Assuming this is true, how long can the situation last?
Meanwhile (based on other unconfirmed reports I'm getting) Putin has already destroyed or neutralized whatever pro-Russian forces still existed in Ukraine. Such sentiment used to be widespread. Back around 2009 I saw polls indicating that the most popular politician in Ukraine was ... Putin! This was probably more an expression of frustration with their own leaders at the time, but still, things were different. Now, Putin is turning previously moderate Central Ukrainians into Galician nationalists.
My thinking is putin could also aim to demoralize Ukrainians to put Russia in a more favorable negotiating position. As the war drags on, the pressure on both sides gets worse and worse plus if they actually want to control Kiev, the military experts are saying that becomes an urban warfare dilemma where Russia could lose many more troops by one off kills. They are saying there is no positive outcome possible for putin in the long term though he might win Kiev and maybe even Ukraine, but then what? Europe arms up right at his border and he got exactly what he didn't want. Regardless his standing in the world is forever gone.
Quote from: relm1 on March 12, 2022, 06:43:39 AMEurope arms up right at his border and he got exactly what he didn't want. Regardless his standing in the world is forever gone.
I think most of those borders are easily defendable against nato agression - by, for example, mountain ranges. Maybe someone who knows more about the geography of Ukraine's western borders will say if I'm right or not.
Quote from: relm1 on March 12, 2022, 06:43:39 AM
Regardless his standing in the world is forever gone.
Well Russia never had any standing
in the world - it is such a small economic force. It has the same standing as, for example, Spain. What's worse, it's only asset is fossil fuels - which we're using less and less.
Anyone like to say what Russia's vision of itself is in 2050 - what it's aiming for? The biggest cheese in an Eastern Block, in a world made up of independent blocks?
Quote from: relm1 on March 12, 2022, 06:43:39 AM
Europe arms up right at his border and he got exactly what he didn't want.
Why would one think Putin doesn't want to control territory on the NATO border? I think Putin would be fine with NATO on the border of the imperial Russia he wants to achieve. What he doesn't want is NATO on the border of Russia as it exists.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 12, 2022, 07:17:24 AM
I think most of those borders are easily defendable against nato agression - by, for example, mountain ranges. Maybe someone who knows more about the geography of Ukraine's westerrn borders will say if I'm right or not.
The Dnepr river with Kyiv is considered a barrier, splitting the country in two parts. Most of Ukraine is endless plains, I have tried the long-distance marshrutka bus rides between some of the major cities. This was about 10 years ago. The driver would pile the paid bank notes in an open shoe box next to his seat, and he'd then go a fatalist, around 85 miles/hour on very bumpy, but straight roads, avoiding the pot holes, for hours, stopping at a cafe with a digged-hole-in-the-ground toilet once in a while.
There are some mountains in parts of Western Ukraine, but they are less a wall than one might expect, and the Carpathians are diagonal.
Western Ukraine is traditionally much more Polish or German culturally. But as others have said, Eastern Ukraine is no longer russophile. There are countless videos of large demonstrations in cities against the new Russian occupiers there, and a lot of military resistance too. Mariupol has suffered a real lot of damage and civilian casualties, I find it hard to believe the Russians would become anything else than generally hated there. Of course, they have sympathizers, but not that many any longer.
Quote from: Florestan on March 12, 2022, 07:35:50 AM
NATO what?
Well America is a pretty big NATO influencer.
Quote from: Florestan on March 11, 2022, 08:42:03 AM
So said Kamala Harris, in both Warsaw and Bucharest.
Do you imply that both the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS are liars and should be trusted no more than Putin or Lavrov?
I'm sure it was you who once said that no Romanian would ever trust any politician. Quite right!
Quote from: Mandryka on March 12, 2022, 07:51:08 AM
Well America is a pretty big NATO influencer.
I meant, what NATO aggression against Russia? I can't remember the last time a NATO country, be it the original signatories or the latest members, ever threatened Russia or made the slightest aggressive gesture towards them.
Quote from: Florestan on March 12, 2022, 08:01:50 AM
I meant, what NATO aggression against Russia? I can't remember the last time a NATO country, be it the original signatories or the latest members, ever threatened Russia or made the slightest aggressive gesture towards them.
Sure, but my point was just this: it's not at all surprising that CSTO countries are a bit wary of NATO, and vice versa - why they would want to be sure they can defend their borders against each other.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 12, 2022, 07:57:11 AM
I'm sure it was you who once said that no Romanian would ever trust any politician. Quite right!
If I said that verbatim it was mere hyperbole --- to which I am sometimes prone, especially in matters political. The realist thing to say is that many Romanians would never trust any Romanian politician.
In the current context, many Romanians, yours truly included, trust the POTUS, the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS. They also trust the Norwegian NATO Secretary General and the Romanian NATO Deputy Secretary General.
Look, there is an ongoing hysteria in Romania to get, or renew, one's passport. People are queueing for hours in this respect. Our own passports are expired and my wife presses me hard, especially for a renewal of our son's passport --- but I am not going to queue up for a renewal. Either Russia will not attack us, in which case we don't need a passport; or Russia will attack us, which automatically means WW3, in which case we will probably be safer in Romania than in UK, France or Germany. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on March 12, 2022, 08:19:12 AM
If I said that verbatim it was mere hyperbole --- to which I am sometimes prone, especially in matters political. The realist thing to say is that many Romanians would never trust any Romanian politician.
In the current context, many Romanians, yours truly included, trust the POTUS, the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS. They also trust the Norwegian NATO Secretary General and the Romanian NATO Deputy Secretary General.
Look, there is an ongoing hysteria in Romania to get, or renew, one's passport. People are queueing for hours in this respect. Our own passports are expired and my wife presses me hard, especially for a renewal of our son's passport --- but I am not going to queue up for a renewal. Either Russia will not attack us, in which case we don't need a passport; or Russia will attack us, which automatically means WW3, in which case we will probably be safer in Romania than in UK, France or Germany. ;D
Fuck knows what will happen. You need a passport to come to London - get a passport and I'll buy you a drink or two.
Quote from: Florestan on March 12, 2022, 08:19:12 AM
(..) or Russia will attack us, which automatically means WW3, in which case we will probably be safer in Romania than in UK, France or Germany. ;D
Probably true. In a bigger war, Copenhagen would likely be erased, and if so, what remained in tiny Denmark not really worth surviving in. The Swedes and the Norwegians have bigger land masses to seek refuge in, should they want to, and they are probably better preppers too, being more accustomed to outdoor life and their unspoiled wilderness.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 12, 2022, 08:30:09 AM
Fuck knows what will happen. You need a passport to come to London - get a passport and I'll buy you a drink or two.
Thank you for your offer --- now that you put it this way, I might just go renew my passport first thing Monday morning. :D
Seriously now, Howard, you can be sure that if / when we'll visit to London you'll be the first to know --- and conversely, if / when you plan to visit Bucharest, just let me know. I would be glad and honored to meet you, my friend, whatever place.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 12, 2022, 08:34:43 AM
Probably true. In a bigger war, Copenhagen would likely be erased, and if so, what remained in tiny Denmark not really worth surviving in. The Swedes and the Norwegians have bigger land masses to seek refuge in, should they want to, and they are probably better preppers too, being more accustomed to outdoor life and their unspoiled wilderness.
I sincerely believe that the probability of WW3, while not zero, is very small.
Quote from: Florestan on March 12, 2022, 08:45:24 AM
I sincerely believe that the probability of WW3, while not zero, is very small.
Let's hope so.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 12, 2022, 08:46:30 AM
Let's hope so.
Well, scelerate as he is, Putin's goal is to make Russia great again, not to bring about her complete destruction.
Quote from: Florestan on March 12, 2022, 08:59:37 AM
Well, scelerate as he is, Putin's goal is to make Russia great again, not to bring about her complete destruction.
Some quick thoughts regarding things getting out of hand could be - 1) there's a lot of discussion whether he'll consider using chemical or smaller nuclear weapons, if under further pressure; 2) the atrocities against civilians might become too much to accept for the West; 3) whether he'll increase escalations, maybe by attacks, open or more subdued, on other countries, to obtain end game gains; 4) a new, amateurish administration in the US; 5) open conflicts as a result of NATO weapon deliveries; 6) ditto regarding the establishment of no-fly zones, or air bridges; 7) a local commander deciding for some further escalating measures; 8 ) more or less consciously brought disasters, such as on nuclear facilities or dam breaks with massive flooding of cities (a risk in that region); etc. 9) Putin forming an alliance with other countries for some further, aggressive steps; 10) xyz ...
Today it was announced by the Russian Orthodox in Amsterdam that all the priests and deacons refused to pray for Patriarch Kirill, and consequently left the church and asked the Patriarch of Constantinople to accept them. Good choice I hope the rest will follow. The parochians have to decide, until then no Liturgies. Our Bishop was rushed from Brussels in a diplomatic car from the Russian ambassy to get all noses towards Russia, but they refused point blank.
Hurray
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 12, 2022, 09:16:52 AM
Some quick thoughts regarding things getting out of hand could be - 1) there's a lot of discussion whether he'll consider using chemical or smaller nuclear weapons, if under further pressure; 2) the atrocities against civilians might become too much to accept for the West; 3) whether he'll increase escalations, maybe by attacks, open or more subdued, on other countries; 4) a new, amateurish administration in the US; 5) open conflicts as a result of NATO weapon deliveries; 6) ditto regarding the establishment of no-fly zones, or air bridges; 7) a local commander deciding for some further escalating measures 8) more or less consciously brought disasters, such as on nuclear facilities or dam breaks with massive flooding of cities (a risk in that region); etc. 9) Putin forming an alliance with other countries for some further, aggressive steps; 10) xyz ...
Why, of course, all of the above could happen. But to think about it day in, day out surely means one's losing their minds.
Que será, será,
Whatever will be, will be,
The future's not ours to see,
Que será, será,
What will be, will be
My wife has a niece in Ukraine who has crossed the border on foot and made her way to Warsaw, where she has friends and a place to stay. Her parents, though, refused to leave, so the girl is safe, but not at rest.
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 11:18:06 PM
Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.
To clarify, I
assumed he wanted Donetsk/Luhansk only. In both war and diplomacy there's a tendency to start out with maximalist demands one knows will never be accepted—in war, this usually means invading/attacking far more territory than you actually intend to keep, so that when negotiations do start you can make "concessions" that make you look good diplomatically by withdrawing from territories you occupy, while still coming out "ahead" in the sense of controlling more territory than when you started.
I think he might be
hoping for a client state in Kiev, but I have no idea how he thinks he'll actually get there, not after he's shown Russian speakers throughout Ukraine how many of their lives he's willing to sacrifice. And an occupied but hostile Ukraine that ties up a large portion of the Russian military in an endless counterinsurgency benefits no one except the USA (even the EU will suffer a good deal due to Russian countersanctions and a constant flow of refugees). I don't put any stock in claims that Putin is merely insane—he's evil, not crazy—but I can't imagine why he thinks Russia as a whole, as opposed to himself personally, will benefit from this.
I'm not sure what my current assumptions are. That's probably another reason I stopped following the news.
Quote from: amw on March 12, 2022, 10:35:48 AM
. I don't put any stock in claims that Putin is merely insane—he's evil, not crazy
The other day some one here said to stop calling Putin crazy because it was "lazy".
I didn't reply at the time but the more I think about it the more I disagree. If you're firing missiles into nuclear reactors you're some kind of crazy. If you're threating total carnage and even a nuclear exchange not for strategic reasons but because of your personal embarrassment that the plan isnt going your way you're some kind of crazy.
No, hes not walking-around-naked-yelling-at-traffic crazy, but from everything Ive heard I'd say he is
living in an alternate reality partly due to being told only what he wants to hear and partly due to an uncontrolled narcissism.
Human traffickers are exploiting the war in Ukraine. Death penalty, preceded by 1000 hours of tortures, to them!
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/mar/12/children-going-missing-amid-chaos-at-ukraine-border-report-aid-groups-refugees?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 12, 2022, 09:41:28 AM
My wife has a niece in Ukraine who has crossed the border on foot and made her way to Warsaw, where she has friends and a place to stay. Her parents, though, refused to leave, so the girl is safe, but not at rest.
That's awful! I can just imagine how stressful that must be. :(
Quote from: Que on March 11, 2022, 11:18:06 PM
Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.
This reminded me of the mystery of the possible endgame. We know what Putin wants, or rather: wanted, but now we know he won't be able to get it.
I've browsed the internet for some feasible theories, and found none. It's all highly speculative - ranging from Russian dominion over smoking piles of rubble, to escalation into a direct conflict with NATO or regime change in Moscow.
I think the most rational thing for Putin to do is to focus on taking the territories he wants, and then agree to a ceasefire and negotiate on condictions for retracting from northern Ukranian.
What does America want as end game?
One of the things Putin wanted was fresh water in the Crimea. Another was Odessa. A third was to ensure the neutrality of the Ukraine.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 12, 2022, 11:47:30 PM
What does America want as end game?
Good question. See Russia fail, in any case. But I'm not sure if they know what that supposed to look like.
QuoteOne of the things Putin wanted was fresh water in the Crimea. Another was Odessa. A third was to ensure the neutrality of the Ukraine.
Putin will keep whatever he can get his hands on. I think he is purposely avoiding an attack on Odessa because he doesn't want to destroy his big prize. The surrender of an complety encircled Odessa will be one of his conditions, as is Ukrainian recognition of the "independence" of the territories he will take (which will subsequently "rejoin" the Motherland) and full demilitarisation and neutrality of what will be left of Ukraine.
Ukraine will never agree to these terms, but won't be able to retake the territories it lost.
We might see a ceasefire ending up in a stalemate. Meanwhile Russia will remain isolated and its economy crippled.
An global energy crisis seems likely and so does a global economic recession. Plus the world has become a less safe place.
Everybody loses, I guess...
Quote from: Que on March 13, 2022, 12:08:28 AM
Good question. See Russia fail, in any case. But I'm not sure if they know what that supposed to look like.
How about this: one of America's key aims is to get the EU to stop paying Russia for petrochemicals, and buy it from the US instead.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/06/us-allies-discuss-russian-oil-imports-ban
I would like to congratulate GMG admin on having an open thread on this subject of the Russian invasion, it is not allowed on TC unless it is a music related post?? e.g. Will you now throw away all your CDs of Russian artists and composers? Even musicians, composers and music lovers live in the real world and want to express their point of view on the dangerous situation that we are ALL in.
Sviatohirsk monastery, one of the most spectacular sights in Eastern Ukraine, apparently experiencing Russian bombings. Monks and 500 refugees there, according to reports. Damage has been limited, at least so far, but there are wounded and hospitalized.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 13, 2022, 12:44:06 AM
How about this: one of America's key aims is to get the EU to stop paying Russia for petrochemicals, and buy it from the US instead.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/06/us-allies-discuss-russian-oil-imports-ban
For the short term Europe will indeed have to buy elsewhere instead.
But unlike the US, European politics is not divided over climate change and the need to convert to "greener" sources of energy. This crisis is actually ceating a large push in EU policy towards that goal.
Quote from: Andante on March 13, 2022, 01:00:58 AM
Will you now throw away all your CDs of Russian artists and composers?
I don't think anyone is seriously contemplating that. As a Dutchman, I would have throw away all British (multiple sea wars), French (one attempted invasion and one succesfull one) and German (invasion in WW II) music as well.
Would Russia burn all its Rembrandts because the Dutch gave weapons to the Ukranian govt? I hope not...
Quote from: Que on March 13, 2022, 01:17:25 AM
For the short term Europe will indeed have to buy elsewhere instead.
But unlike the US, European politics is not divided over climate change and the need to convert to "greener" sources of energy. This crisis is actually ceating a large push in EU policy towards that goal.
Indeed.
Quote from: Que on March 13, 2022, 01:17:25 AM
For the short term Europe will indeed have to buy elsewhere instead.
But unlike the US, European politics is not divided over climate change and the need to convert to "greener" sources of energy. This crisis is actually ceating a large push in EU policy towards that goal.
Yes, I actually heard something about this during the week. Double-edged new policy, to source gas from elsewhere but also to work hard at cutting gas demand.
And I believe Italy is very dependent on fossil fuels.
Another objective of the US -- demonstrate the power economic warfare capacity of the USA and their allies.
Economic warfare cuts both ways of course, and I noticed a headline the other day that The Lebanon is expecting to see wheat shortages. Famine leads to revolution, so the political consequences in, for example, North Africa, could be significant.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 05:57:46 AM
I don't get it. Demonstrate their economic power by demonstrating their dependence on foreign energy sources?
What I was thinking of was the power of freezing liquid assets, and reducing trade.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 06:05:29 AM
Well wouldn't that have been handier before Putin invaded Ukraine?
How would that have worked, exactly?? Pre-invasion, we crater their economy so they can't afford to invade? That looks to me an awful lot like a premptive offensive move that would undercut your position on the moral high ground. 😕
🤠😎
Quote from: Andante on March 13, 2022, 01:00:58 AM
Will you now throw away all your CDs of Russian artists and composers? Even musicians, composers and music lovers live in the real world and want to express their point of view on the dangerous situation that we are ALL in.
Absolutely not. Russians are victims in this too. Victims of a madman, propaganda/misinformation, etc.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 12, 2022, 09:41:28 AM
My wife has a niece in Ukraine who has crossed the border on foot and made her way to Warsaw, where she has friends and a place to stay. Her parents, though, refused to leave, so the girl is safe, but not at rest.
I'm glad that she made it to safety, but I'm sorry to hear that her family is still there. Any idea how close they are currently to any fighting Karl?
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 01:01:36 AM
Sviatohirsk monastery, one of the most spectacular sights in Eastern Ukraine, apparently experiencing Russian bombings. Monks and 500 refugees there, according to reports. Damage has been limited, at least so far, but there are wounded and hospitalized.
Very sorry to hear that. :(
PD
Quote from: "Harry" on March 12, 2022, 09:17:40 AM
Today it was announced by the Russian Orthodox in Amsterdam that all the priests and deacons refused to pray for Patriarch Kirill, and consequently left the church and asked the Patriarch of Constantinople to accept them. Good choice I hope the rest will follow. The parochians have to decide, until then no Liturgies. Our Bishop was rushed from Brussels in a diplomatic car from the Russian ambassy to get all noses towards Russia, but they refused point blank.
Hurray
After reading a bit about the Orthodox Church I can see how this makes sense; not as drastic as switching to Roman Catholic. Good luck to them. 0:)
Quote from: Andante on March 13, 2022, 01:00:58 AM
I would like to congratulate GMG admin on having an open thread on this subject of the Russian invasion, it is not allowed on TC unless it is a music related post?? e.g. Will you now throw away all your CDs of Russian artists and composers? Even musicians, composers and music lovers live in the real world and want to express their point of view on the dangerous situation that we are ALL in.
Can I keep Schnittke? Although born in the Soviet Union, his father was a Jew from Frankfurt and his mother a Volga German. :-\
Seriously though, no, I think the idea is just to avoid any public display that might be seen as supportive of Russia.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 07:30:36 AM
Which I think is silly. I fail to see how performing Tchaikovsky is somehow "supporting Russia". And anyway the target is Putin, not "Russia".
Agreed. 👍 Saw an interesting item on the evening news last night about a big rash of major vandalism attacks on restaurants with Russian names, like Russia House in DC and Russian Tea Room in Manhattan. These places are like 100 years old and 3-4 generations removed from Russia. What possible relevance can breaking their windows have to Putin??
Or the bars that are pouring all of their vodka, made outside of Russia by foreign contractors, down the street gutter.. boy howdy 🤠, that'll show them Russkies! F***ing morons... 😠
🤠😎
Quote from: Que on March 13, 2022, 12:08:28 AM
Good question. See Russia fail, in any case. But I'm not sure if they know what that supposed to look like.
Not a
fine point, I don't think: See to it that
Putin fails. It's hard for me to see this as other than a global concern. And so, if any of us should see anything like a problem with the US taking the lead here, I'm sure Biden would gladly pass the gavel to any other who might be more competent.
Quote from: Andante on March 13, 2022, 01:00:58 AM
I would like to congratulate GMG admin on having an open thread on this subject of the Russian invasion, it is not allowed on TC unless it is a music related post?? e.g. Will you now throw away all your CDs of Russian artists and composers? Even musicians, composers and music lovers live in the real world and want to express their point of view on the dangerous situation that we are ALL in.
Testimony, really, to how the GMG participants can (for the greater part) be reasonable adults, I think.
Quote from: Madiel on March 13, 2022, 03:05:30 AM
Yes, I actually heard something about this during the week. Double-edged new policy, to source gas from elsewhere but also to work hard at cutting gas demand.
It ain't easy, for sure! Speaking as the citizen of a country which (nearly at best) has just kicked the can down the road.
Quote from: relm1 on March 13, 2022, 06:24:05 AM
Absolutely not. Russians are victims in this too. Victims of a madman, propaganda/misinformation, etc.
Exactly: The Russian people have been Putin's first victims.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 13, 2022, 06:25:09 AM
I'm glad that she made it to safety, but I'm sorry to hear that her family is still there. Any idea how close they are currently to any fighting Karl?
Very sorry to hear that. :(
That I ken not, PD!
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 07:30:36 AM
Which I think is silly. I fail to see how performing Tchaikovsky is somehow "supporting Russia". And anyway the target is Putin, not "Russia".
A spectacularly poor call by Cardiff. And I think that the
1812 Overture is a
good programming choice: Triumph over a megalomaniac invader? Yes, please!
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 13, 2022, 07:42:33 AM
Agreed. 👍 Saw an interesting item on the evening news last night about a big rash of major vandalism attacks on restaurants with Russian names, like Russia House in DC and Russian Tea Room in Manhattan. These places are like 100 years old and 3-4 generations removed from Russia. What possible relevance can breaking their windows have to Putin??
Or the bars that are pouring all of their vodka, made outside of Russia by foreign contractors, down the street gutter.. boy howdy 🤠, that'll show them Russkies! F***ing morons... 😠
🤠😎
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 07:43:30 AM
Yeah, it's like "I disagree with the mullahs in Iran. Ban Omar Khayyam!!!"
(* chortle *)
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 12, 2022, 12:56:02 PM
No, hes not walking-around-naked-yelling-at-traffic crazy, but from everything Ive heard I'd say he is living in an alternate reality partly due to being told only what he wants to hear and partly due to an uncontrolled narcissism.
Apropos of that, here's an insider report on the thoughts and reactions of his inner circle and other bigwigs in the Russian gov't. Summary: they really didn't expect him to go this far.
https://ilyalozovsky.substack.com/p/what-russian-officials-think-of-the?s=r
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 13, 2022, 07:42:33 AM
Or the bars that are pouring all of their vodka, made outside of Russia by foreign contractors, down the street gutter.. boy howdy 🤠, that'll show them Russkies! F***ing morons... 😠
We've been here before - "freedom fries," "liberty cabbage," etc. War always brings out the worst in jingoistic impulses.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 13, 2022, 08:32:15 AM
We've been here before - "freedom fries," "liberty cabbage," etc. War always brings out the worst in jingoistic impulses.
Yep. One despairs of the race. As we learned all too thoroughly under Trump: Bigotry is here to stay.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 13, 2022, 08:18:14 AM
I think that the 1812 Overture is a good programming choice: Triumph over a megalomaniac invader? Yes, please!
My thoughts exactly.
40 Republican senators, including McConell and Romney, request sending fighter jets to Ukraine. I am not totally opposed. I have a mixed feeling about it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/60710226
Ukraine reveals 'Russian warship, go fxxx yourself!' postage stamp.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/12/ukraine-reveals-russian-warship-go-fuck-yourself-postage-stamp
"... brightest assessment yet of progress in talks on war"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-delegate-says-talks-with-ukraine-may-soon-produce-draft-agreements-2022-03-13/?taid=622e151391bc6a00016ec286&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 13, 2022, 08:32:15 AM
We've been here before - "freedom fries," "liberty cabbage," etc. War always brings out the worst in jingoistic impulses.
But damnit, Walter, it's freaking embarrassing to have to share a country with such idiots. Yeah, Freedom Fries was my first thought while watching the story, and the idiot congressmen who perpetrated it.
🤠😎
And there you have it:
(Reuters)LONDON: Russia said on Sunday (Mar 13) that it was counting on China to help it withstand the blow to its economy from Western sanctions, which it said had frozen nearly half of its gold and foreign currency reserves.
"We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan. And we see what pressure is being exerted by Western countries on China in order to limit mutual trade with China. Of course, there is pressure to limit access to those reserves," Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.
"But I think that our partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only maintain, but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing."
Well, I think Putin and Xi Jinping miscalculated and the latter will now have no other option than to drop Putin like a hot brick...
Yes, many commentators share that view now.
Here's one explanation for such a Western-orientated Chinese strategy; Russia is going down, and Western ideals will be advancing.
I'm not sure, that I agree with the thoughts here about Europe experiencing increased US domination in the future, though; the EU is generally striving for more independence.
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
One could add: with only 20 mio people living in Siberia, but vast resources and a proximity to China, it seems likely that in the longer run, Siberia will de facto become a Chinese vassal state anyway, when Russia experiences further weakening.
The Ten Hardest Truths About the War in Europe (https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-ten-hardest-truths-about-the?s=r)
I'll just list them.
(1) America is now in a world war.
(2) If Donald Trump again becomes president in January 2025, America will lose the war we are currently in with Russia and our democracy may collapse.
(3) All this is complicated by the fact that what we're witnessing is the start of the second genocide in Europe (cf. Bosnia) since the Holocaust.
(4) No one in the U.S. government, NATO, or the European Union believes Ukraine can win this war.
(5) The fact that Russia can stay in Ukraine long-term—and can weather sanctions long-term—underscores a key indicator that we are in a world war: global alliances are already shifting dramatically in response to the crisis in Ukraine.
(6) The costs of the current world war may be more than Americans are willing to bear—and if a majority of Americans come to wrongly feel it's President Biden rather than Putin and his allies (including Trump) who have brought the world to its current pass, it will punish the Democrats and reward the Republicans. In doing so, it would play into Putin's hands.
(7) Putin has no exit strategy.
(8 ) Biden's administration is publicly in denial about much of this.
(9) Yes, America's so-called "culture war"—launched by Republicans as a cynical rhetorical exercise in the 1990s, but ultimately reified as a discrete, personally and politically profitable phenomenon—is relevant to the ongoing war in Europe. This means political discourse in the U.S. is even more entwined with Russia's invasion of Ukraine than we realize.
(10) Everything now happening is only the beginning.
Yet, all these points are very debatable, except perhaps 10).
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 10:25:37 AM
Yes, many commentators share that view now.
Here's one explanation for such a Western-orientated Chinese strategy; Russia is going down, and Western ideals will be advancing.
I'm not sure that I agree with the thoughts here about Europe experiencing increased US domination in the future, though; the EU is striving for more independence.
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
The US back in the driver's seat? No thank you - I don't hope or think so.... ::)
The reason for either is the same: US domestic politics has gone completely and utterly bonkers.
The US cannot be
trusted to lead the way and it is no longer
capable to fulfil such a role.
As long as there is a Democrat in the White House the US could be a senior partner in a western coalition, even if his/her hands are tied domestically. If Trump takes over: God help the fate of the free world... I think one lunatic as world leader is already quite enough....
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 11:20:12 AM
(..) It's a simple fact that we didn't have so much sh*t hitting so many different fans during Trump's term.
True - since, by comparison, eventually all the fans had gotten overwhelmingly drowned in it ...
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 11:43:18 AM
What we're seeing now is drowning. Actually 2017-early 2020 look idyllic by comparison.
Concerning my remark, I see that you clarified your post.
He surely said a lot of stuff.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 12:12:44 PM
I think it has to be kept in mind though that Russia is, you know, a nuclear power. This isn't quite like rolling over Sadaam Hussein.
The main problem if this whole sad saga. And Putin has no scrupules playing this card.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 10:25:37 AM
Yes, many commentators share that view now.
Here's one explanation for such a Western-orientated Chinese strategy; Russia is going down, and Western ideals will be advancing.
I'm not sure, that I agree with the thoughts here about Europe experiencing increased US domination in the future, though; the EU is generally striving for more independence.
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
One could add: with only 20 mio people living in Siberia, but vast resources and a proximity to China, it seems likely that in the longer run, Siberia will de facto become a Chinese vassal state anyway, when Russia experiences further weakening.
Things can happen fast. Now Russia has officially asked China for military equipment assistance in the Ukraine war. One would assume that this will result in some important signalling from China relatively soon.
I am personally rather surprised at the extent to which almost everyone I know is uncritically buying into war propaganda (which I guess is partly because most of the people I know are either militantly pro-Ukraine or militantly pro-Russia).
For years I've usually been the one having to point out that propaganda is an essential weapon of war, and that no statements from any of the governments or their respective media arms involved in a war can ever be taken at face value. I nevertheless see people not only accepting propaganda but arguing that it is
necessary to do so, even if one knows that it's false, in order to help one's "side" win.
Here in the USA we mostly wind up hearing about people buying into Russian propaganda and the efforts of those around them to dissuade them, since of course we're expected to buy into Ukrainian propaganda instead. Therefore a lot of the Russian propaganda claims are already well known and debunked. (e.g., Nazis in the Ukrainian government, 15,000+ Ukrainian soldiers KIA, Ukraine having biological weapons, the inflated claims of Russian advances, etc.) It's also relatively easy to spot Ukrainian propaganda claims—anything that can only be sourced back to a Ukrainian government agency or a media outlet used by them as a proxy (some examples: Russia bombing the Holocaust memorial in Kiev, Russia bombing the Enerhodar nuclear power plant, Russia executing American journalists, and of course the usual inflated kill counts). Nonetheless, these propaganda claims continue to blanket the social media airspace as a complicated form of electronic warfare. This may even be the intent—intelligence agencies are most likely intentionally releasing false information in the hope that seeding social media with chaff will conceal actual troop movements, capture or loss of territory, and other such information they wish to conceal from the opposing military. The strange thing is seeing people who were media literate 10, 20, 30 (etc) years ago, such as close family friends, buy into it completely, just because this time it's on social media instead of on TV or in the newspaper.
(I can at least get through to my parents, since they were both on the ground for Bosnia coverage and thus know firsthand that no media source is trustworthy, and my dad is also somewhat of a Russia/Ukraine expert—which, he often complains, has only made him extremely unpopular among both Russians and Ukrainians. But it feels a bit odd to be the one trying to keep the peace among the family friends who are like "well, doesn't Putin have a point really?" and the ones who are like "we need to send Navy Seals to Ukraine immediately, damn the torpedoes!")
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 12:19:54 PM
Things can happen fast. Now Russia has officially asked China for military equipment assistance in the Ukraine war. One would assume that this will result in some important signalling from China relatively soon.
Interestingly China has so far been the most neutral of the world powers on this conflict, despite its ostensible alliance with Russia—and I think it'll stay that way. It has all the leverage to end (or prolong) the conflict, and is presumably choosing to prolong it right now because that serves its economic and political interests. But I don't think it's an exaggeration to say Xi holds, by some distance, the best hand in this round of the great game.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 12:19:54 PM
Things can happen fast. Now Russia has officially asked China for military equipment assistance in the Ukraine war. One would assume that this will result in some important signalling from China relatively soon.
So now Russia not only needs China for access to funds, for economic support/trade, but also for military assistance?
The plot thickens.... and Putin looks more desperate by the day...
I haven't allowed anything to gain traction. You didn't hear anything about the "Ghost of Kyiv" from me. I'd love me a "Ghost" if it was a real pilot and plane. It's not. What's real is that some pilots have shot down Russian planes and having a Ukrainian ace is a good bit of morale boosting propaganda.
Casualties: The high figure is something like 12,000 Russian dead. Responsible sources say it's more like 4,000.
An American journalist has been killed recently. Some journalists have reported Russians firing at them.
There are simulations on the internet of AAA and shoulder fired missiles shooting down Russian planes and helos. Some people might think these are war footage.
People who have cognitive weaknesses in normal times won't do better in abnormal times.
What would increased domination by America look like? Would there be pharmaceutical ads on TV all over the world? Would people go to giant for-profit churches in huge numbers?
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 01:55:52 PM
I couldn't agree more. Social media...egh, what can I say. There's also the fact that what we see on social media is carefully curated. Some things, true or not, are allowed to gain traction while other things, true or not, are squelched.
It is not carefully curated. It is driven by algorithms. There's an important difference.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 02:49:38 PM
Non sequitur.
So Europe will experience a non sequitur? It sounds horrible.
Quote from: Madiel on March 13, 2022, 03:07:17 PM
It is not carefully curated. It is driven by algorithms. There's an important difference.
Though that seemed obvious enough to
me, thanks for pointing it out.
Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2022, 02:30:42 PM
I haven't allowed anything to gain traction. You didn't hear anything about the "Ghost of Kyiv" from me. I'd love me a "Ghost" if it was a real pilot and plane. It's not. What's real is that some pilots have shot down Russian planes and having a Ukrainian ace is a good bit of morale boosting propaganda.
I do think this is part of the problem though—people early on who believed that footage from a video game was in fact a Ukrainian ace pilot shooting down Russian fighters seem to be more easily convinced that if the USA sent in its own, much more modern fighter jets, they'd just shoot down all the Russians and institute a "no-fly zone" and the war would end immediately. This probably contributes to why Americans don't seem to realise that a no-fly zone over Ukraine would cause all-out Russia/America war.
QuoteThe high figure is something like 12,000 Russian dead. Responsible sources say it's more like 4,000.
Even the "responsible" sources tend to be foreign intelligence agencies, which necessarily don't have the most complete picture. But I think they also tend to be used to overshadow the extent of the humanitarian catastrophe.
For example, one of the more reliable NGOs currently active in Mariupol (the International Red Cross) recently estimated, based on reports collected from first responders throughout the city, 2,000+ dead civilians and 125,000+ who had fled the city through Russian-controlled "humanitarian corridors"—more than a quarter of the city's population. Over two weeks of fighting, that's ~150 civilian deaths per day, which is a shockingly high number for any conflict, comparable to the US/Peshmerga/Iraqi Army joint assault on Mosul in 2016-2017 (~40,000 dead civilians over the course of nine months). But if one believes 12,000 Russian troops (or even only 4,000) were killed during the same period, well then, clearly the city's inhabitants are putting up heroic resistance and the Russian offensive will be broken any day now, right? Alternatively, if one believes 15,000 Ukrainian troops were killed (or even only 7,000), well, clearly the ICRC is lying and all those dead civilians were secret Azov Battalion militants. Either way, it serves not only to create complacency, but also to continue to desensitise people to mass death on an industrial scale.
(Of course, arguably COVID already did most of the work in that respect.)
Quote from: amw on March 13, 2022, 04:13:03 PM
I do think this is part of the problem though—people early on who believed that footage from a video game was in fact a Ukrainian ace pilot shooting down Russian fighters seem to be more easily convinced that if the USA sent in its own, much more modern fighter jets, they'd just shoot down all the Russians and institute a "no-fly zone" and the war would end immediately. This probably contributes to why Americans don't seem to realise that a no-fly zone over Ukraine would cause all-out Russia/America war.
Even the "responsible" sources tend to be foreign intelligence agencies, which necessarily don't have the most complete picture. But I think they also tend to be used to overshadow the extent of the humanitarian catastrophe.
For example, one of the more reliable NGOs currently active in Mariupol (the International Red Cross) recently estimated, based on reports collected from first responders throughout the city, 2,000+ dead civilians and 125,000+ who had fled the city through Russian-controlled "humanitarian corridors"—more than a quarter of the city's population. Over two weeks of fighting, that's ~150 civilian deaths per day, which is a shockingly high number for any conflict, comparable to the US/Peshmerga/Iraqi Army joint assault on Mosul in 2016-2017 (~40,000 dead civilians over the course of nine months). But if one believes 12,000 Russian troops (or even only 4,000) were killed during the same period, well then, clearly the city's inhabitants are putting up heroic resistance and the Russian offensive will be broken any day now, right? Alternatively, if one believes 15,000 Ukrainian troops were killed (or even only 7,000), well, clearly the ICRC is lying and all those dead civilians were secret Azov Battalion militants. Either way, it serves not only to create complacency, but also to continue to desensitise people to mass death on an industrial scale.
(Of course, arguably COVID already did most of the work in that respect.)
This doesn't seem to be a response to what I was talking about. I don't see desensitization to mass death. Most people are outraged by precisely that.
Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2022, 04:37:14 PM
This doesn't seem to be a response to what I was talking about. I don't see desensitization to mass death. Most people are outraged by precisely that.
Perhaps that is a problem that's more pertinent in my own social circles then.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 05:03:43 PM
No, your "American dominance" statement was a non sequitur. Given the morass that is the US at this point, less US dominance and less US emulation would probably be best for everybody.
I was responding to:
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 10:25:37 AM
I'm not sure, that I agree with the thoughts here about Europe experiencing increased US domination in the future, though; the EU is generally striving for more independence.
I agree about the not sureness. What would such a thing be like? That's what I meant.
Quote from: amw on March 13, 2022, 05:11:10 PM
Perhaps that is a problem that's more pertinent in my own social circles then.
I'm not social. My feelings about mass civilian casualties as a deliberate war strategy may be more idiosyncratic than I had assumed.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 13, 2022, 05:00:12 PM
Algorithms that always seem to go in the direction of a desired narrative. Uh, no. Algorithms don't just appear from the rings of Saturn, anyway.
The fact that you don't really understand algorithms and that you have a healthy dose of confirmation bias in your mindset doesn't alter the point. Social media engines like Facebook simply do not work by having a human being sitting there making the kinds of decisions you're talking about. The sheer volume of material doesn't permit that.
The notorious attempts to influence the 2016 US election didn't work by the kind of conscious processes you seem to have in mind. They worked by people knowing how to play the system. Which is exactly what happens now. The fact that some people know how to work Facebook algorithms to achieve virality for what they want to share is completely different from someone at Facebook headquarters planning it all out. There is certainly manipulation, but you're confused about its source and methodology.
Japan got the memo... The fact that the possibility of an invasion (of Japan) is even mentioned, means that the new reality has sunken in. I expect that Japan will start to rearm soon.
Analysis from CNN's Emiko Jozuka and Blake Essig
Japan has backed its condemnation of war in Ukraine with sanctions on Russian officials and oligarchs, but experts say they're not the only audience for Tokyo's outrage — China is meant to get the message, too.
Since Moscow attacked Ukraine, commentators have drawn comparisons between Russia's actions and China's stated ambition to seek the "reunification" of Taiwan with the mainland.
For Japan, support for Ukraine serves a dual purpose, according to Yoko Iwama, an international relations and security expert at the National Graduate Institute of Policy Studies.
"The purpose of Japan's response is to send a message that we will be ready and we will resist if there's an invasion (of Japanese territory), that we will not allow the borders to be changed by force," said Iwama.
"We don't want a real war, the objective is political -- that China is persuaded from an aggressive act like the one that Putin has taken in the last several days and weeks."
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 12:19:54 PM
Things can happen fast. Now Russia has officially asked China for military equipment assistance in the Ukraine war. One would assume that this will result in some important signalling from China relatively soon.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has said assertions from US officials that Russia asked Beijing for military equipment for its campaign in Ukraine were "disinformation" from the US.
(Not surprisingly IMO.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-talks-resume-blockade-black-sea-coast-zelenskiy-putin-live
Quote from: Que on March 13, 2022, 01:26:37 AM
I don't think anyone is seriously contemplating that. As a Dutchman, I would have throw away all British (multiple sea wars), French (one attempted invasion and one succesfull one) and German (invasion in WW II) music as well.
Would Russia burn all its Rembrandts because the Dutch gave weapons to the Ukranian govt? I hope not...
I was using it as an example.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 14, 2022, 12:53:22 AM
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has said assertions from US officials that Russia asked Beijing for military equipment for its campaign in Ukraine were "disinformation" from the US.
(Not surprisingly IMO.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-talks-resume-blockade-black-sea-coast-zelenskiy-putin-live
Yes. It will be interesting, if China can keep the more or less neutral approach - for how long. There'll be concrete steps and choices, that are necessary.
Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2022, 02:30:42 PM
What would increased domination by America look like?
the Americans will kidnap the mayors of Paris, Berlin and Amsterdam and install puppets in their stead for the desovietization of EU. ;D
Quote from: drogulus on March 13, 2022, 07:07:23 PM
I'm not social. My feelings about mass civilian casualties as a deliberate war strategy may be more idiosyncratic than I had assumed.
Not idiosyncratic at all. It's appalling, barbaric, and a sign of incompetence and corruption. The powers that be in Russia treat the lives and safety of their own troops with equal casualness and callousness. About what one should expect from the administration of criminal sociopaths.
I feel the same way about war propaganda as I do about the largely pseudo-problem of media bias. Either one can read through the biases or one can't. If you can't there's little to be done. If you can there's little you need to do that you aren't already doing.
Those members here who live in Poland, Czechia and Romania. Get ready. That's all I'll say.
A rather interesting article:
https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/ (https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)
Surprised by some of the results. Didn't know France had that many nuclear warheads. Also, I thought Germany had some of their own.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 14, 2022, 12:51:46 AM
Facebook employs third party "fact checkers". Please don't try to suggest that Big Tech is some disinterested observer and purveyor of any and all opinion. They're partisans and political actors.
Strawman of the Day.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 14, 2022, 08:55:30 AM
Those members here who live in Poland, Czechia and Romania. Get ready.
For what?
China stocks had the biggest fall today for 12 years in Hong Kong, etc.
Some say because of the Russia mentionings, ~a Russia alliance being considered likely toxic for economy growth.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 14, 2022, 09:51:51 AM
A Russian invasion, what else?
Czechia has no direct border with Russia even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine (Poland and Romania have no direct border with Russia either but they will have if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine). That aside, why would Poland and Romania, which have never been part of the USSR, be more in danger than Lithuania*, Latvia and Estonia, which were? And if you're talking about the Tsarist Empire, then substitute Finland for Romania.
* Lithuania has no direct border with Russia either, even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine.
I think the probability of a NATO country being invaded by Russia is infinitesimal.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 14, 2022, 09:51:51 AM
A Russian invasion, what else?
Approximately half of the Russian army is currently occupied in Ukraine. It would actually be perfect timing to invade Russia.... ;)
Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2022, 10:03:51 AM
Czechia has no direct border with Russia even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine (Poland and Romania have no direct border with Russia either but they will have if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine). That aside, why would Poland and Romania, which have never been part of the USSR, be more in danger than Lithuania*, Latvia and Estonia, which were? And if you're talking about the Tsarist Empire, then substitute Finland for Romania.
* Lithuania has no direct border with Russia either, even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine.
I think the probability of a NATO country being invaded by Russia is infinitesimal.
They're coming for your Tămâioasă Românească (I'm jealous of your diacriticals.)
Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2022, 10:03:51 AM
Czechia has no direct border with Russia even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine (Poland and Romania have no direct border with Russia either but they will have if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine). That aside, why would Poland and Romania, which have never been part of the USSR, be more in danger than Lithuania*, Latvia and Estonia, which were? And if you're talking about the Tsarist Empire, then substitute Finland for Romania.
* Lithuania has no direct border with Russia either, even if Russia annex the whole of Ukraine.
I think the probability of a NATO country being invaded by Russia is infinitesimal.
Well, this is true. They'd need Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia first. I don't know why I was thinking that the USSR had control over Romania, Czechia and Poland.
The current war in Ukraine is obviously stretching the Russian resources. I think if they'll try other aggressive measures on the ground right now, those will be of a more limited scale, than say invading Poland or Romania.
Btw, though being somewhat a Russophile as regards their culture, this war probably means that I'll never visit Russia, in spite of having travelled a lot in Europe elsewhere, including Ukraine. Have lost any desire to, cf. their societal state.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 14, 2022, 10:12:50 AM
Well, this is true. They'd need Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia first. I don't know why I was thinking that the USSR had control over Romania, Czechia and Poland.
Because they were Iron Curtain countries. Not part of the Soviet Union itself, but allied with and fully dominated by USSR. Might as well have been part of Russia, for all the autonomy they had. Apparently it was OK, though, to be worse than Russia, you just couldn't be better. Ask a Romanian... :-\
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 14, 2022, 10:28:20 AM
Because they were Iron Curtain countries. Not part of the Soviet Union itself, but allied with and fully dominated by USSR. Might as well have been part of Russia, for all the autonomy they had. Apparently it was OK, though, to be worse than Russia, you just couldn't be better. Ask a Romanian... :-\
8)
In 1968 Romania was the only country in the Warsaw Treaty Organization which refused to join in the invasion of Czechoslovakia. Ceaușescu pursued an increasingly independent foreign policy which led to rapprochements between him and de Gaulle, Nixon and Ford. Even the Queen of England received him with full honor, including a ride in the royal caleche. Back then he was hailed by the West as the most liberal and Soviet-independent Communist leader, which he was until 1973. That year he made a fateful visit to China and North Korea and came back fascinated by, and imbued with the ideas of, the megalomaniac Asian Communism, first and foremost the cult of personality --- and from there it all went downhill until 1989.
Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2022, 10:44:39 AM
In 1968 Romania was the only country in the Warsaw Treaty Organization which refused to join in the invasion of Czechoslovakia. Ceaușescu pursued an increasingly independent foreign policy which led to rapprochements between him and de Gaulle, Nixon and Ford. Even the Queen of England received him with full honor, including a ride in the royal caleche. Back then he was hailed by the West as the most liberal and Soviet-independent Communist leader, which he was until 1973. That year he made a fateful visit to China and North Korea and came back fascinated by, and imbued with the ideas of, the megalomaniac Asian Communism, first and foremost the cult of personality --- and from there it all went downhill until 1989.
Yes, you guys really went through the shits. Not just y'all, Albania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria weren't a lot better off. When your homegrown dictators are even worse than the f***ing Russians, you have problems! :o
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 14, 2022, 10:55:23 AM
Yes, you guys really went through the shits. Not just y'all, Albania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria weren't a lot better off. When your homegrown dictators are even worse than the f***ing Russians, you have problems! :o
8)
You're actually wrong on Yugoslavia, which was the most prosperous Communist state of them all --- but it was all dependent on one man only who ruled with an iron hand over hugely divergent and conflicting nations. After Tito died, they went downhill too. Btw, Tito's was the only European Communist regime which was not installed by the Red Army and which was legitimated by actual and effective armed resistance against the Nazis. He was a bête noire of the USSR until the very end.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 14, 2022, 10:12:50 AM
Well, this is true. They'd need Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia first. I don't know why I was thinking that the USSR had control over Romania, Czechia and Poland.
It is complicated. The USSR was a union of 15 republics, of which Russia was one, along with Ukraine, the Baltic states, Belarus, Georgia, and some others. Chechnya was not a separate republic, it was part of Russia. Then there was the Warsaw pact, which was the Soviet response to NATO, which included other satellite states, such as Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc.
The Soviet Union mostly lines up with imperial Russia, although Tsar Nikolaus II was the boss of Finland and Poland, as well. Finland is an odd case, which managed to squirm out of being in the USSR, by being some combination of too stubborn and to meek to be worth invading.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 14, 2022, 10:12:50 AM
Well, this is true. They'd need Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia first. I don't know why I was thinking that the USSR had control over Romania, Czechia and Poland.
You worry too much, amigo. 8)
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 14, 2022, 12:02:40 PM
It is complicated. The USSR was a union of 15 republics, of which Russia was one, along with Ukraine, the Baltic states, Belarus, Georgia, and some others. Chechnya was not a separate republic, it was part of Russia. Then there was the Warsaw pact, which was the Soviet response to NATO, which included other satellite states, such as Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc.
The Soviet Union mostly lines up with imperial Russia, although Tsar Nikolaus II was the boss of Finland and Poland, as well. Finland is an odd case, which managed to squirm out of being in the USSR, by being some combination of too stubborn and to meek to be worth invading.
Yes, I definitely needed to refresh my Russian history. ::) Thanks for the info.
Quote from: LKB on March 14, 2022, 12:06:13 PM
You worry too much, amigo. 8)
Indeed I do. This Russian-Ukrainian conflict has my stomach tied in knots. I'm not only worried for the future of Ukraine, but of the Western world in general.
Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2022, 11:06:28 AM
Btw, Tito's was the only European Communist regime which was not installed by the Red Army
Czechoslovakia also. Communists came first in the election of 1946, then seized complete power two years later. Soviet troops were absent from CZ between 1945 and 1968. This result wasn't surprising, because CZ was probably the most left-wing country in Europe between the wars. Its Communist Party was the biggest, in both absolute and relative terms (more members than France or Italy, even).
My impression is that Hungary under "goulash communism" (1960s-80s) had both a more liberal regime and a higher standard of living than Yugoslavia, though I may be wrong about this.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 14, 2022, 12:51:46 AM
Facebook employs third party "fact checkers". Please don't try to suggest that Big Tech is some disinterested observer and purveyor of any and all opinion. They're partisans and political actors. Because such behavior confirms your biases, you don't see it.
https://archive.ph/CRSYG
Ah I see. When you complain about the narrative going in a particular direction, you're upset about facts being checked and the answers being contrary to your own beliefs.
Snopes must upset you enormously.
By the way, you don't know nearly enough about me to start proclaiming you know what my biases are. The fact that I don't immediately buy into a bunch of dark conspiracy merely tells you I have a bias towards skepticism of conspiracies. I've told you nothing about my political leanings (and I'm not American anyway) nor did I make any comment about specific Ukrainian or Russian propaganda relating to the war... although I gather even calling it a "war" might be the wrong thing for one side of the conflict.
Corporations being involved in politics isn't a conspiracy unless you decide to start writing it as one. Although the generally derelict state of American electoral law is a disgrace, that's a whole other topic for a different thread.
The most immediate danger is to Moldova, as the Russian advance in the south of Ukraine was intended to link up with the breakaway region of Transnistria.
Musk asks Putin for a fight, with Ukraine on the line (https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/musk-asks-putin-for-a-fight-with-ukraine-on-the-line/ar-AAV3mAn?ocid=msedgntp)
"Bombastic billionaire Elon Musk has set his sights on Russian president Vladimir Putin with a tweet offering to fight him one on one, with Ukraine the prize.
"I hereby challenge Владимир Путин (Vladimir Putin) to single combat," the Tesla CEO and SpaceX founder tweeted to his 78 million followers .
"Stakes are Україна (Ukraine)."
He then followed it up, copying in the Kremlin's official twitter account asking if Putin agreed to the fight."[...]
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 14, 2022, 03:06:54 PM
Musk asks Putin for a fight, with Ukraine on the line (https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/musk-asks-putin-for-a-fight-with-ukraine-on-the-line/ar-AAV3mAn?ocid=msedgntp)
"Bombastic billionaire Elon Musk has set his sights on Russian president Vladimir Putin with a tweet offering to fight him one on one, with Ukraine the prize.
"I hereby challenge Владимир Путин (Vladimir Putin) to single combat," the Tesla CEO and SpaceX founder tweeted to his 78 million followers .
"Stakes are Україна (Ukraine)."
He then followed it up, copying in the Kremlin's official twitter account asking if Putin agreed to the fight."[...]
Apparently, Musk has so much money he's had to resort to storing it where brain cells are supposed to go.
Quote from: LKB on March 14, 2022, 04:11:49 PM
Apparently, Musk has so much money he's had to resort to storing it where brain cells are supposed to go.
Indeed. With that kind of money, just have the fucking bastard killed. Put a bounty of $20 million on his head and see who bites.
Quote from: drogulus on March 14, 2022, 02:10:15 PM
The most immediate danger is to Moldova, as the Russian advance in the south of Ukraine was intended to link up with the breakaway region of Transnistria.
Agreed, though I doubt that Putin still has the apetite for it after this military debacle.
The invasion is running out of steam.... Like I said before: if Syrian mercenaries are his last hope, Putin must be pretty desperate.
War should be over by May, says Ukrainian government adviser
An adviser in the Ukraine government says the the war should be over by May because Russia will run out of resources to keep the invasion going. Citing a video published by several Ukrainian media outlets, Reuters reports that Oleksiy Arestovich, an adviser to the Ukrainian president's chief of staff, said:
"I think that no later than in May, early May, we should have a peace agreement, maybe much earlier, we will see, I am talking about the latest possible dates.
We are at a fork in the road now: there will either be a peace deal struck very quickly, within a week or two, with troop withdrawal and everything, or there will be an attempt to scrape together some, say, Syrians for a round two and, when we grind them too, an agreement by mid-April or late April.
The exact timing would depend on how many resources the Kremlin was willing to commit to the campaign, and whether it could risk using raw conscripts to supplement soldiers lost during the faltering Russian advance since launching the invasion on 24 February."
Arestovich's suggestion Russia might try to use Syrian mercenaries was backed up by a report from the respected Syrian Observatory of Human Rights which says Russia has enlisted 40,000 militiamen from its Middle Eastern ally.
Hopefully. An agreement this Spring will make it possible for Ukraine to rebuild with Western support within a reasonable time frame.
One of the problems is though, that Putin needs some sort of major, official 'gain' - or he has in reality ruined so much for Russia, obtaining too little. And the Ukrainians are stern and can't accept major, official defeats, at least now. There's no doubt Putin has much confidence in his domestic propaganda to shape the public opinion, but there has got to be some real content too for him, of great symbolic value.
US intelligence now suggests 6 to 8 thousand Russian fatalities, in less than 3 weeks. The real number will probably never be known. During 10 years in Afghanistan, they apparently lost 15 thousand.
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 14, 2022, 12:25:08 PM
Czechoslovakia also. Communists came first in the election of 1946, then seized complete power two years later. Soviet troops were absent from CZ between 1945 and 1968. This result wasn't surprising, because CZ was probably the most left-wing country in Europe between the wars. Its Communist Party was the biggest, in both absolute and relative terms (more members than France or Italy, even).
Yes, CZ too. It should be noted, though, that it took an armed coup for the Communists to assume complete power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Czechoslovak_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Czechoslovak_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)
QuoteMy impression is that Hungary under "goulash communism" (1960s-80s) had both a more liberal regime and a higher standard of living than Yugoslavia, though I may be wrong about this.
My impression is the other way around but I too might be wrong, of course. I think it's safe to say that they were both more prosperous and liberal than all other Communist regimes in Europe.
Quote from: drogulus on March 14, 2022, 02:10:15 PM
The most immediate danger is to Moldova, as the Russian advance in the south of Ukraine was intended to link up with the breakaway region of Transnistria.
Yes.
Quote from: Que on March 14, 2022, 10:47:28 PM
Agreed, though I doubt that Putin still has the apetite for it after this military debacle.
If Ukraine stood until a peace agreement is reached, a possibility which gets bigger with each passing day, Moldova would be safe.
I hope that the very brave Russian TV Editor, who photo-bombed the News on the main Russian TV channel, survives. It reminded me of the brave sign-language interpreter who broke off her translation of the TV news during the rigged Georgian election to sign 'It's all lies, the election was rigged - I hope that we meet again' (she survived and became a heroine like the young woman on Russian TV).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60744605
Prime ministers of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia go to Kyiv (https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/prime-ministers-of-poland-czech-republic-and-slovenia-go-to-kyiv/)
Quote from: Florestan on March 15, 2022, 02:06:35 AM
Prime ministers of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia go to Kyiv (https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/prime-ministers-of-poland-czech-republic-and-slovenia-go-to-kyiv/)
I heard that on the news early this morning. Apparently they've managed to negotiate a 2-day cease fire.
PD
Quote from: Que on March 14, 2022, 11:03:58 PM
The invasion is running out of steam.... Like I said before: if Syrian mercenaries are his last hope, Putin must be pretty desperate.
Assad will need his own mercenaries as Russian support is bound to dwindle.
Media presentation of Ukraine before Feb 2022. Truth is the first casualty of war . . . or peace . . . or both?
(https://i.ibb.co/RhBkZ3h/ABE0-FD3-E-1744-4-B9-C-9-EFD-7-AFC5-C43-E37-A.png)
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 15, 2022, 02:40:17 AM
I heard that on the news early this morning. Apparently they've managed to negotiate a 2-day cease fire.
PD
That would be good news if so, but not sure about the accuracy—I've seen/heard that more civilians are evacuating Mariupol and Mikolayiv, which does usually indicate a local lull in fighting, but if there
is a ceasefire Russian/allied forces in the northern areas of Donetsk and Luhansk are definitely not honouring it.
I think an April/May ceasefire and peace agreement seems likely. We can hope for one in the next week but both sides currently seem too deeply entrenched.
Quote from: amw on March 15, 2022, 08:44:03 AM
That would be good news if so, but not sure about the accuracy—I've seen/heard that more civilians are evacuating Mariupol and Mikolayiv, which does usually indicate a local lull in fighting, but if there is a ceasefire Russian/allied forces in the northern areas of Donetsk and Luhansk are definitely not honouring it.
I think an April/May ceasefire and peace agreement seems likely. We can hope for one in the next week but both sides currently seem too deeply entrenched.
Looking again, it seems that it was more of a partial cease fire to allow residents to leave two cities: Mariupol and Volnavakha. And was for 35 hours. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/05/russian-state-media-claims-temporary-ceasefire-at-mariupol-volnovakha.html And it seems that it's not being honored by the Russians. :(
I read the news re reaching an agreement. What would be left by then? 3 million refugees (currently) and a whole lot of annihilated residential buildings not to mention infrastructure, schools, universities, a frozen food plant and historical buildings, etc. You name it! Not to mention all of the Ukrainians getting killed, maimed, assaulted, robbed, etc.
PD
Quote from: Mandryka on March 15, 2022, 08:08:12 AM
Media presentation of Ukraine before Feb 2022. Truth is the first casualty of war . . . or peace . . . or both?
(https://i.ibb.co/RhBkZ3h/ABE0-FD3-E-1744-4-B9-C-9-EFD-7-AFC5-C43-E37-A.png)
Ultra-right parliamentarian representation in the Rada in Ukraine (=Right Sector, Svoboda) has been small or non-existant in recent years. Svoboda currently has 1 member of the 450, Right Sector has 0.
The militant Azov Batallion is probably the biggest problem, cf. their bad logo, but allegedly there has been a good deal reforming it since 2014, including integrating it in the army command structure. In 2014 it was one of the only fighting groups able to halt Russian invasion in Donbass. But if Ukraine dissolved it, they'd get rid of an obvious image problem (btw, some sources with the nazi-/nazi-like flags tend to use photos back from 2014-15, or photo-shopping, or a staged 'some person with a flag').
Quote from: Mandryka on March 15, 2022, 08:08:12 AM
Media presentation of Ukraine before Feb 2022. Truth is the first casualty of war . . . or peace . . . or both?
(https://i.ibb.co/RhBkZ3h/ABE0-FD3-E-1744-4-B9-C-9-EFD-7-AFC5-C43-E37-A.png)
Russians sometimes refer to "Banderites", a term used interchangeably with more familiar terms for what are usually called fascists. So far as I know it's not commonly used in the Western media outside the context of examining Russian propaganda.
One thing we should be able to agree on, whatever fascist Ukes might say to the contrary, is that the world wide leader of ultranationalist white Christian supremacy is Vladimir Putin.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 15, 2022, 09:09:17 AM
Looking again, it seems that it was more of a partial cease fire to allow residents to leave two cities: Mariupol and Volnavakha. And was for 35 hours. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/05/russian-state-media-claims-temporary-ceasefire-at-mariupol-volnovakha.html And it seems that it's not being honored by the Russians. :(
Whoever expects the Russians to honor their agreements, or simply to have honor, is hopelessly naive.
Quote from: Florestan on March 15, 2022, 09:14:18 AM
Whoever expects the Russians to honor their agreements, or simply to have honor, is hopelessly naive.
As far as Putin goes and his buddies, yup! Ironically, he's bringing out everything that he
didn't want come to play--God willing.
PD
Quote from: drogulus on March 15, 2022, 09:12:13 AM
(...)
One thing we should be able to agree on, whatever fascist Ukes might say to the contrary, is that the world wide leader of ultranationalist white Christian supremacy is Vladimir Putin.
Cf. for example this popular video celebrating the invasion symbol "Z" and the president; updated fascism, that is:
https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1500756327106236417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Here, terminally ill cancer children in a Russian hospital in Kazan were put in a celebrating Z-formation to be photographed from a drone, for PR reasons:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/07/russias-terminally-children-line-letter-z-stunt-show-kremlin/
The 'Z' symbol is btw also curiously reminiscent of Nazi logos too.
Also, some Westerners got the wrong impression that the Lugansk and Donetsk 'republics' are somehow 'socialist'; they are not. They are dictatorships. One of the first actions there was dissolving the unions. There were notorious theatre court cases, with death penalty as the result of raised hands among the gathered public.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 15, 2022, 08:08:12 AM
Media presentation of Ukraine before Feb 2022. Truth is the first casualty of war . . . or peace . . . or both?
(https://i.ibb.co/RhBkZ3h/ABE0-FD3-E-1744-4-B9-C-9-EFD-7-AFC5-C43-E37-A.png)
Did you actually check the sources of the headlines in that gif to see if they really do represent "western media" coverage of Ukraine immediately pre-war, or even check a few mainstream media outlets yourself to see more broadly how they covered Ukraine before the war?
Rhetorical question. You obviously havent. But you are going to tell us that the truth is the first victim. And imply that the mainstream media is all fake news but gif makers are independent free thinkers beholden to no one with no agenda.
So far in my own checking these headlines come from sites I've never heard of. There is one from the BBC...from 2014.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30134421
US warns Chinese on support for Russia in Ukraine war (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-business-europe-china-d7cfda44db57c0ff19109d66ed876c6a)
I have doubts that the US can effectively engage in economic warfare against Russia and China at the same time. America can achieve a certain level of self-harming success while attempting to do so, however. Or, maybe this is the opening of something broader, and can serve as a test-run for sanctions against China in the event it tries to take back Taiwan.
Quote from: Que on March 13, 2022, 11:40:33 PMJapan got the memo... The fact that the possibility of an invasion (of Japan) is even mentioned, means that the new reality has sunken in. I expect that Japan will start to rearm soon.
There are reasons why the Japanese built flat deck "destroyers", I mean, in addition to meeting the self defense strictures of the Japanese Constitution.
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 15, 2022, 12:59:51 PM
Did you actually check the sources of the headlines in that gif to see if they really do represent "western media" coverage of Ukraine immediately pre-war, or even check a few mainstream media outlets yourself to see more broadly how they covered Ukraine before the war?
Rhetorical question. You obviously havent. But you are going to tell us that the truth is the first victim. And imply that the mainstream media is all fake news but gif makers are independent free thinkers beholden to no one with no agenda.
So far in my own checking these headlines come from sites I've never heard of. There is one from the BBC...from 2014.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30134421
Where do you think the Nazis have gone, Simon?
I killed two minutes by typing in the headlines of some of them - these were the top hit on google. Make of it what you will
https://www.theweek.co.uk/92041/britons-join-neo-nazi-militia-in-ukraine
https://eurasianet.org/ukraine-far-right-fighters-from-europe-fight-for-ukraine
https://www.timesofisrael.com/nazi-symbols-salutes-on-display-at-ukrainian-nationalist-march/
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/far-right-extremists-in-ukrainian-military-bragged-about-canadian-training-report-says-1.5631304
For obvious reasons, you'd expect mainstream media coverage of Ukraine to be around the invasion of the Crimea, and now.
In retaliation to the U.S. sanctions, Russia sanctions Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, Hillary Clinton and others. It appears that Putin is trying to boost and take advantage of the Republican animosity toward the Democrats in the USA. He should have sanctioned Nancy Pelosi, Alexandria OC, Ilhan Omar, and Liz Cheney (R) as well. ;D
Quote from: Mandryka on March 15, 2022, 02:11:31 PM
Where do you think the Nazis have gone, Simon?
I think the point is that far right extremists are present in European democratic countries, and they often appear in news accounts. I don't see this is any more significant in Ukraine than in Germany Sweden, France or the UK. Ukrainians seem to have taken to democratic government quite well.
Quote from: drogulus on March 15, 2022, 02:39:18 PM
I think the point is that far right extremists are present in European democratic countries, and they often appear in news accounts. I don't see this is any more significant in Ukraine than in Germany Sweden, France or the UK. Ukrainians seem to have taken to democratic government quite well.
Imagine the headlines
Yes you're right. You could imagine many of those headlines with UK, France, Germany, USA substituted for Ukraine!
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 15, 2022, 12:59:51 PM... But you are going to tell us that the truth is the first victim.
I see many in The Diner ready to victimize the truth on their own account....
Quote from: Mandryka on March 15, 2022, 02:11:31 PM
Where do you think the Nazis have gone, Simon?
I have no idea what point you're trying to make. Please explain.
Because being able to find 20 headlines on any story from across the entire internet over a decade is completely unremarkable and says nothing about "Western Media" and is not at all an indictment of it.
I really want to know now: who made that gif?
Here's a global list of some neo-Nazi organizations, including at times with estimated number of members
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_neo-Nazi_organizations#Ukraine
and a list of active, ultra-nationalist parties in Europe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_nationalist_parties_in_Europe
Quote from: Todd on March 15, 2022, 01:30:05 PM
I have doubts that the US can effectively engage in economic warfare against Russia and China at the same time.
The way it will be done is sanctions against banks, companies and particular government entities directly involved in supporting Russia. There will be some cost to the US and allies.
China is not in good shape. Supporting Putin is more costly than they thought it would be and the trouble for them hasn't really started.
If China learns the alliances are not the pushovers they imagined they might be deterred from invading Taiwan. Perhaps they'll go north instead and liberate Mongolia and Manchuria. That's what I'd recommend.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 15, 2022, 02:52:51 PM
Yes you're right. You could imagine many of those headlines with UK, France, Germany, USA substituted for Ukraine!
I don't have to imagine headlines. I read up on extremist groups when they are in the news. It's somewhat worrying that these groups exist, but I keep that in proportion to other more serious worries.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 15, 2022, 08:08:12 AM
Media presentation of Ukraine before Feb 2022. Truth is the first casualty of war . . . or peace . . . or both?
(https://i.ibb.co/RhBkZ3h/ABE0-FD3-E-1744-4-B9-C-9-EFD-7-AFC5-C43-E37-A.png)
Oh right, I can really verify the accuracy of a meme about "Western media" from a bunch of headlines...
Meanwhile, it cannot be emphasised enough that the President of Ukraine is Jewish. And has been since long before February 2022. That fact alone makes a whole lot of nonsense out of the "Ukraine is a Nazi state" narrative. A Jew does not win a massive amount of the vote in a presidential election in a Nazi state.
Here in the Australian Capital Territory you could find news headlines about a candidate who was a homophobe. The headline wouldn't tell you that we have a gay leader (and
married now as well), or that the homophobe candidate got an amusingly small number of votes, spit the dummy and whined about how he was going to leave the ACT.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 15, 2022, 09:09:17 AM
Looking again, it seems that it was more of a partial cease fire to allow residents to leave two cities: Mariupol and Volnavakha. And was for 35 hours. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/05/russian-state-media-claims-temporary-ceasefire-at-mariupol-volnovakha.html And it seems that it's not being honored by the Russians. :(
Definitely not being honoured—several thousand additional families were able to escape from Mariupol, but Russian forces used the opportunity to move deeper into the city, which naturally led to a resumption of shelling.
Volnovakha has been under near-complete DPR control for several days now; there is theoretically a humanitarian corridor in the form of the Donetsk-Dnipro highway, but given that it's now entirely through occupied territory I have no idea how many people were willing to risk fleeing that way. Russian forces are supposed to be distributing humanitarian aid to residents, as was agreed in talks last week, and while there's fairly extensive (if circumstantial) evidence that the RuAF has honoured that agreement in Kherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk, outlying areas of Mariupol and Sumy, etc, I wouldn't necessarily trust DPR fascists to do the same.
Quote from: Madiel on March 15, 2022, 03:54:05 PM
Meanwhile, it cannot be emphasised enough that the President of Ukraine is Jewish. And has been since long before February 2022. That fact alone makes a whole lot of nonsense out of the "Ukraine is a Nazi state" narrative. A Jew does not win a massive amount of the vote in a presidential election in a Nazi state.
Honestly, I wouldn't read a lot into Zelensky's ethnicity: in the USA we did have a non-white president for a few years, but it was not only that small, "fringe" white supremacist militias continued to be a problem for that entire time period, but also that they continued to exert outsize influence over mainstream political parties and discourse (and still do, to this day)—thus why mainstream political parties might feel the pressure to ban "critical race theory", permit the vehicular manslaughter of protestors, declare democratic elections illegitimate, etc, because while the white nationalist fringe represents a tiny minority, that minority happens to contain a) the police, b) the people who own all the guns, c) a lot of very rich people. Therefore, one could accurately describe the USA as a "state with white supremacist elements".
Similarly, although far-right parties in Ukraine have zero presence in the Verkhovna Rada, the "mainstream" parties in the country have definitely felt and reacted to a certain amount of pressure to embrace Banderaism, incorporate far-right militias into the National Guard and so on. The fact that a significant majority of Ukrainians (about 70% voted for Zelensky, iirc) were opposed to this platform doesn't make a huge difference. Just over the course of the last few weeks Zelensky himself has felt it necessary to replace several more moderate political leaders with far-right hardliners and I suspect it's partly for the same reason: the far right has money, guns, control of law enforcement, and the willingness to use all three for short-term political gain, even during an actual defensive war.
In states where the far right has actively captured the entire government, such as Russia itself, we obviously see much more dire consequences both domestically and internationally. (To some extent this offers us a preview of a theoretical DeSantis/Hawley administration, but it's more likely that Trump himself wins reelection in 2024.)
Quote from: Madiel on March 15, 2022, 03:54:05 PM
Meanwhile, it cannot be emphasised enough that the President of Ukraine is Jewish. And has been since long before February 2022. That fact alone makes a whole lot of nonsense out of the "Ukraine is a Nazi state" narrative.
This reminds me of a certain recent event in Canada lol.
Quote from: greg on March 15, 2022, 05:21:47 PM
This reminds me of a certain recent event in Canada lol.
I can't meaningfully respond as I haven't the faintest idea what you're referring to.
Quote from: Madiel on March 15, 2022, 05:56:56 PM
I can't meaningfully respond as I haven't the faintest idea what you're referring to.
No one does.
Quote from: Madiel on March 15, 2022, 05:56:56 PM
I can't meaningfully respond as I haven't the faintest idea what you're referring to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmQghqnni4k
To summarize the video, blackface Trudeau says the conservative party members are standing with Nazis, meanwhile they mention how they are Jewish descendants of Holocaust victims. They ask him to apologize three different times and he ignores the request each time. He characterizes the entire trucker convoy protest as Nazi supporting.
I hear that Russian propaganda was pushing the "taking out Nazis in Ukraine" narrative. While, as you note, Zelensky himself is Jewish. Seems like Putin is taking cues from the west (as China has done in some ways also, in their criticisms of the US).
The point is, it's just a manipulative tactic being pushed around by those seeking (or trying to maintain) power.
Disagree with my way of doing things? "Hey people, look at this Nazi!"
That's how you control people- convince them there is a threat, and tell them that you can save them, that your cause is just and whoever disagrees is part of the problem.
The actual percentage of people that are Neo-Nazis around the world is incredibly low- pretty much universally despised. The average person hates Nazis. So it's easy to get onboard with it, just believe what they say.
But question anything about their reasons for attacking the so-called "Neo-Nazis," or any sort of policy that they might have that negatively affects them, and all of a sudden you are a Neo-Nazi yourself. (in the case of Canada, get your bank account frozen temporarily)
1) there were actual white supremacists in the Canadian convoy. And being Jewish does not mean a person won't support such people. [Points to Stephen Miller as an obvious example.]
2)I read an interesting thread on Twitter the other day which gave an explanation of Putin's use of the term "Nazi".
In brief:
Putin is making a renewed cult of World War II aka Great Patriotic War, in which the main enemy was the Nazis.
At the same time Putin is continuing a long tradition of the Russian state to forcibly assimilate and Russify all minority groups. Those that resist are enemies of Russia and therefore termed Nazis.
Ukraine is currently the leading example of those that refuse to assimilate and thus is a Nazi state in need of de-Nazification and assimilate into the new Russian empire.
Quote from: greg on March 15, 2022, 07:51:40 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmQghqnni4k
To summarize the video, blackface Trudeau
*snip*
While I get the point of what you're saying, your very first word after claiming to summarize the video has nothing to do with the video.
You don't really bolster an argument about how other people are playing politics by immediately demonstrating your own desire to play politics. You could just as easily make a critical argument about what Trudeau is doing without the word "blackface", so why on earth are you distracting from the power of your argument about how people needlessly throw "Nazi" around by needlessly throwing in your own derogatory adjective?
I mean, you're criticising manipulation but couldn't resist throwing in your own bit of manipulation, at the exact moment when a bit of sobriety in tone would have made your case a heck of a lot better. Calling him "blackface Trudeau" just immediately communicates to me a non-neutral stance.
Quote from: JBS on March 15, 2022, 08:30:40 PM
1) there were actual white supremacists in the Canadian convoy. And being Jewish does not mean a person won't support such people. [Points to Stephen Miller as an obvious example.]...
Trudeau was factually accurate is stating that Conservatives were aligning with those that display a Swastika, although it was somewhat disingenuous since in most cases the Swastika was displayed to imply the Canadian government was equivalent to Nazis because they wanted people to get vaccinated. As you say, there were some white supremacists among the protesters, but I don't get the impression a sizeable fraction of the demonstrators could be characterized that way.
Quote from: JBS on March 15, 2022, 08:30:40 PM
... Putin is making a renewed cult of World War II aka Great Patriotic War, in which the main enemy was the Nazis.
At the same time Putin is continuing a long tradition of the Russian state to forcibly assimilate and Russify all minority groups. Those that resist are enemies of Russia and therefore termed Nazis.
Ukraine is currently the leading example of those that refuse to assimilate and thus is a Nazi state in need of de-Nazification and assimilate into the new Russian empire.
There is something to this, although in Ukraine the accusation of Nazi control of the country was ramped up after President Yanukovych refused to confirm a trade agreement with the E.U. and instead decided to accept loans and close economic ties with Russia. There were huge demonstrations, and the demonstrators were violently attacked by security forces controlled by Yanukovych, who eventually fled to Russia. The Russian narrative is that Ukraine was taken over by Nazis. Ukraine did have an ultra-nationalist party (Svoboda) which could be styled as neo-Nazi, but it was small and not influential.
Quote from: drogulus on March 15, 2022, 02:39:18 PM
I think the point is that far right extremists are present in European democratic countries, and they often appear in news accounts. I don't see this is any more significant in Ukraine than in Germany Sweden, France or the UK. Ukrainians seem to have taken to democratic government quite well.
One thing that is a bit disturbing is Azov -- I mean I know it's small and it probably gets more media coverage than it should, but you know, it's a bit like having a KKK division in the US army. This snopes article may be trustable on the subject
https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/03/02/what-is-ukraines-azov-battalion/
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 15, 2022, 02:54:44 PM
I see many in The Diner ready to victimize the truth on their own account....
I think it has been increasingly difficult to divine the truth about what happens in wartime since at least the first Gulf War, and the advent of "embedded" reporters, dependent on the military and security services for access. Independent journalists that speak truth to power are a dying breed. So, it is quite plausible, in my opinion, that Ukrainian forces might act wickedly, and it not be reported.
I share the videos here without comment as to their accuracy and impartiality, but merely to highlight that discussion of extreme right wing political currents in Ukraine is not the sole preserve of Putin apologists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBo0akeDMY&t=14s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEKQsnRGv7s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hE6b4ao8gAQ&t=2s
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 15, 2022, 03:13:43 PM
and a list of active, ultra-nationalist parties in Europe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_nationalist_parties_in_Europe
As usual, Wikipedia should be taken cum grano salis. The entry for Romania is highly inaccurate: of the 4 parties listed as active, one has drifted into irrelevance since 2008, one has always been irrelevant (both of them might qualify as active only for their militant members, if they still have any left which is doubtful) and I have never heard of the third one.
A interesting thread about the current sanctions effect on Russian economy.
He may be exaggerating the negative consequences, but there are some staggering stats there. It is implied, that if Russia should decide to turn to only Asia in the future policies, away from the West, they would need a lot of time to actually do so. So the Russian leadership now has a huge pressure of oncoming economic problems, if deciding to keep the war going (there are rumours of some success in the peace negotiations, but it's hard to say if they'll lead to any real results).
"All in all, no other economy in the world has experienced anything like this – extreme de-globalization in a matter of days."
https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1503789373069877248
FYI, the Ukrainian president is addressing the US Congress (currently on CNN).
PD
Public Expresses Mixed Views of U.S. Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
35% favor U.S. military action even if it risks nuclear conflict with Russia (https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/)
Quote from: Pew Research CenterComparable shares in both parties (36% of Republicans, 35% of Democrats) say they would favor military action even if it risks nuclear conflict with Russia.
Xi considered invading Taiwan this fall: Leaked FSB document (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4474716)
Putin may have delayed the next military crisis a bit.
Raising the question: Do both Putin and Trump believe their own bullshit?
Russia's sanctions on Biden, Hillary Clinton and others mocked by White House
The White House press secretary noted that U.S. officials do not have money in Russian bank accounts
Opinion: Sorry, President Zelensky. The U.S. cannot risk direct war with Russia.
By Henry Olsen
Columnist
Today at 12:09 p.m. EDT
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's virtual address on Wednesday to Congress was moving and persuasive. He's right that the United States can and should do more to help his country win its existential fight with Russia. But he's wrong to ask us to risk direct war with Russia by establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Zelensky is the president of a proud and brave people. He would fall short of his responsibility to them if he did not pursue every possible means for their survival and victory. It is in Ukraine's interest to entice larger, more powerful nations to enter the conflict and take its side. He knows that such support would tip the balance toward Ukraine and ensure that Russia would eventually have to offer acceptable terms for peace.
That's why he has tried to draw common threads between his country and the others that he beseeches. He invoked Churchill and Shakespeare when addressing the British House of Commons and told leaders of the European Union that Ukraine's battle is Europe's. It's also why he analogized the attacks on Ukraine to the attacks at Pearl Harbor and on 9/11.
If his audience can envision themselves in his nation's suffering, they might be moved to come to his nation's rescue. But great nations must be ruled by the mind, not the heart. And the mind counsels support for Ukraine, not war.
Russia would not simply surrender in the face of U.S. airplanes over the battlefield in Kyiv or Kharkiv. It would shoot back, and it would use weapons systems based in Russia itself to do so. Thus, a no-fly zone inevitably means war with Russia, not just on Ukrainian territory.
That's not in our interest, especially because Russia has troops and military bases in many other countries. It has positioned its navy to combat potential NATO intervention from aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean and Aegean seas, and it conducted large-scale naval exercises in the northern Atlantic in the run-up to the invasion. These moves clearly signal Russia's willingness to fight back beyond Ukraine should the United States or NATO enter the war directly.
Russia also has tacit supporters worldwide that could involve themselves if the war expands. China signaled again this week that it stands between Russia and the West in this conflict. It might levy its own economic sanctions against the West if it takes to Ukraine's skies. That's what the Arab nations did in 1973 by embargoing the export of oil to the United States in retaliation for its decision to resupply Israel during the Yom Kippur War. That act plunged the United States into a deep recession, creating an energy crisis that dominated U.S. decision-making for the rest of the decade.
Chinese-imposed sanctions could severely harm the United States. China supplies 80 percent of the world's rare-earth minerals, a crucial component for high-tech manufacturing. The United States also sources many important medicines from China, and many U.S. exporters are dependent upon Chinese sales. In other words, China has the power to throw the United States and the rest of the world into a recession.
These considerations mean that the United States and its allies should reject Zelensky's plea to close the Ukrainian skies. Ukraine's suffering is terrible, but it does not rise to the level that we should risk a global economic or shooting war for which we are not prepared.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 16, 2022, 09:57:46 AM
Opinion: Sorry, President Zelensky. The U.S. cannot risk direct war with Russia.
By Henry Olsen
Columnist
Today at 12:09 p.m. EDT
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's virtual address on Wednesday to Congress was moving and persuasive. He's right that the United States can and should do more to help his country win its existential fight with Russia. But he's wrong to ask us to risk direct war with Russia by establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Zelensky is the president of a proud and brave people. He would fall short of his responsibility to them if he did not pursue every possible means for their survival and victory. It is in Ukraine's interest to entice larger, more powerful nations to enter the conflict and take its side. He knows that such support would tip the balance toward Ukraine and ensure that Russia would eventually have to offer acceptable terms for peace.
That's why he has tried to draw common threads between his country and the others that he beseeches. He invoked Churchill and Shakespeare when addressing the British House of Commons and told leaders of the European Union that Ukraine's battle is Europe's. It's also why he analogized the attacks on Ukraine to the attacks at Pearl Harbor and on 9/11.
If his audience can envision themselves in his nation's suffering, they might be moved to come to his nation's rescue. But great nations must be ruled by the mind, not the heart. And the mind counsels support for Ukraine, not war.
Russia would not simply surrender in the face of U.S. airplanes over the battlefield in Kyiv or Kharkiv. It would shoot back, and it would use weapons systems based in Russia itself to do so. Thus, a no-fly zone inevitably means war with Russia, not just on Ukrainian territory.
That's not in our interest, especially because Russia has troops and military bases in many other countries. It has positioned its navy to combat potential NATO intervention from aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean and Aegean seas, and it conducted large-scale naval exercises in the northern Atlantic in the run-up to the invasion. These moves clearly signal Russia's willingness to fight back beyond Ukraine should the United States or NATO enter the war directly.
Russia also has tacit supporters worldwide that could involve themselves if the war expands. China signaled again this week that it stands between Russia and the West in this conflict. It might levy its own economic sanctions against the West if it takes to Ukraine's skies. That's what the Arab nations did in 1973 by embargoing the export of oil to the United States in retaliation for its decision to resupply Israel during the Yom Kippur War. That act plunged the United States into a deep recession, creating an energy crisis that dominated U.S. decision-making for the rest of the decade.
Chinese-imposed sanctions could severely harm the United States. China supplies 80 percent of the world's rare-earth minerals, a crucial component for high-tech manufacturing. The United States also sources many important medicines from China, and many U.S. exporters are dependent upon Chinese sales. In other words, China has the power to throw the United States and the rest of the world into a recession.
These considerations mean that the United States and its allies should reject Zelensky's plea to close the Ukrainian skies. Ukraine's suffering is terrible, but it does not rise to the level that we should risk a global economic or shooting war for which we are not prepared.
Ditto.
🤠😎
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 16, 2022, 09:57:46 AM
Opinion: Sorry, President Zelensky. The U.S. cannot risk direct war with Russia.
By Henry Olsen
Columnist
Today at 12:09 p.m. EDT
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's virtual address on Wednesday to Congress was moving and persuasive. He's right that the United States can and should do more to help his country win its existential fight with Russia. But he's wrong to ask us to risk direct war with Russia by establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Zelensky is the president of a proud and brave people. He would fall short of his responsibility to them if he did not pursue every possible means for their survival and victory. It is in Ukraine's interest to entice larger, more powerful nations to enter the conflict and take its side. He knows that such support would tip the balance toward Ukraine and ensure that Russia would eventually have to offer acceptable terms for peace.
That's why he has tried to draw common threads between his country and the others that he beseeches. He invoked Churchill and Shakespeare when addressing the British House of Commons and told leaders of the European Union that Ukraine's battle is Europe's. It's also why he analogized the attacks on Ukraine to the attacks at Pearl Harbor and on 9/11.
If his audience can envision themselves in his nation's suffering, they might be moved to come to his nation's rescue. But great nations must be ruled by the mind, not the heart. And the mind counsels support for Ukraine, not war.
Russia would not simply surrender in the face of U.S. airplanes over the battlefield in Kyiv or Kharkiv. It would shoot back, and it would use weapons systems based in Russia itself to do so. Thus, a no-fly zone inevitably means war with Russia, not just on Ukrainian territory.
That's not in our interest, especially because Russia has troops and military bases in many other countries. It has positioned its navy to combat potential NATO intervention from aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean and Aegean seas, and it conducted large-scale naval exercises in the northern Atlantic in the run-up to the invasion. These moves clearly signal Russia's willingness to fight back beyond Ukraine should the United States or NATO enter the war directly.
Russia also has tacit supporters worldwide that could involve themselves if the war expands. China signaled again this week that it stands between Russia and the West in this conflict. It might levy its own economic sanctions against the West if it takes to Ukraine's skies. That's what the Arab nations did in 1973 by embargoing the export of oil to the United States in retaliation for its decision to resupply Israel during the Yom Kippur War. That act plunged the United States into a deep recession, creating an energy crisis that dominated U.S. decision-making for the rest of the decade.
Chinese-imposed sanctions could severely harm the United States. China supplies 80 percent of the world's rare-earth minerals, a crucial component for high-tech manufacturing. The United States also sources many important medicines from China, and many U.S. exporters are dependent upon Chinese sales. In other words, China has the power to throw the United States and the rest of the world into a recession.
These considerations mean that the United States and its allies should reject Zelensky's plea to close the Ukrainian skies. Ukraine's suffering is terrible, but it does not rise to the level that we should risk a global economic or shooting war for which we are not prepared.
Yes.
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 05:38:09 AM
Xi considered invading Taiwan this fall: Leaked FSB document (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4474716)
Putin may have delayed the next military crisis a bit.
The quality of what FSB produces has been called into question lately. I assume you know this...
Quote from: JBS on March 16, 2022, 11:55:45 AM
The quality of what FSB produces has been called into question lately. I assume you know this...
Note the linked source. Probably a good idea going forward.
The whole no-fly-zone problem is rather moot as Ukrainian cities are attacked with missiles. Has anyone seen or filmed a massive airplane bombing? I reckon that two or three such carpet bombings would have shelled Kiev to the ground long ago. Actually this is perhaps the biggest mistery of this war: why don't Russians use the aviation? Room for speculation aplenty.
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 12:03:41 PM
The whole no-fly-zone problem is rather moot as Ukrainian cities are attacked with missiles. Has anyone seen or filmed a massive airplane bombing? I reckon that two or three such carpet bombings would have shelled Kiev to the ground long ago. Actually this is perhaps the biggest mistery of this war: why don't Russians use the aviation? Room for speculation aplenty.
Multiple reasons. Still best to be wary of the Russian Air Force, at least just a bit: US Air Force's view of 'near-peer' Russia unchanged by war in Ukraine (https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/03/15/us-air-forces-view-of-near-peer-russia-unchanged-by-war-in-ukraine/)
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 12:31:44 PM
Such as?
Try this (https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=why+has+russia+not+achieved+air+superiority+in+ukraine)
Also, I guess you did not click the link.
Given that no one on this forum has been responsible for planning theater-wide military actions, I think op-eds and Google news articles will fill the void.
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 12:42:53 PM
Try this (https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=why+has+russia+not+achieved+air+superiority+in+ukraine)
I should have thought you didn't trust graduates of the Google University.
QuoteAlso, I guess you did not click the link.
I did click it but it didn't answer my question.
If you don't have the, or don't want to, answer that's fine by me --- there's just no need to be sarcastic, especially not with me of all people (and you know very well what I mean).
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 12:52:17 PMI did click it but it didn't answer my question.
There is no single answer, so if that is what you seek, you will be disappointed.
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 01:21:11 PM
There is no single answer, so if that is what you seek, you will be disappointed.
I beg your pardon? You wrote:
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 12:22:27 PM
Multiple reasons.
Then I asked:
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 12:31:44 PM
Such as?
And then instead of a reason or two (which is what I asked for, in my admittedly non-native English) I got only sarcasm --- which once again was not warranted in any way.
Never mind, though. Let's leave it at that.
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 01:36:24 PMAnd then instead of a reason or two (which is what I asked for, in my admittedly non-native English) I got only sarcasm --- which once again was not warranted in any way.
You routinely insist upon answers, on all manner of topics. To your query here, there are literally
thousands of articles online now, from sources both reputable and not, as to why the Russian military advance has not been as fast and effective as hoped for or feared. Analyses of the air war represent a sizeable subset of these articles. New articles appear hourly, or even more frequently. No one on this forum possesses any specialist knowledge on this specific subject. So read some articles, put together a list that satisfies you, and you will be about as accurate as all the other non-specialists.
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 01:54:53 PM
No one on this forum possesses any specialist knowledge on this specific subject.
Either you have some opinion as to "multiple reasons", in which you case you can give some of them, or you have absolutely no clue and just said "multiple reasons" to make it
sound as if you had at least
some knowledge.
This is not about whether any of us, you included, are specialists. It's about whether you, personally, know anything at all.
Quote from: Madiel on March 16, 2022, 02:04:56 PMIt's about whether you, personally, know anything at all.
A solid philosophical question.
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 02:06:27 PM
A solid philosophical question.
Either answer it or stop writing. Because right now it looks as if your troll side is much in evidence.
Quote from: Madiel on March 16, 2022, 02:07:27 PM
Either answer it or stop writing. Because right now it looks as if your troll side is much in evidence.
I answered Florestan's question.
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 01:54:53 PM
You routinely insist upon answers, on all manner of topics.
Incorrect.
QuoteTo your query here, there are literally thousands of articles online now, from sources both reputable and not, as to why the Russian military advance has not been as fast and effective as hoped for or feared. Analyses of the air war represent a sizeable subset of these articles.
I did not ask you to post thousands of links, I asked you for a reason or two.
But honestly, just never mind anymore. I'm really over and done.
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 02:08:55 PM
I answered Florestan's question.
You absolutely didn't.
Congratulations, you're going back on my ignore list. You've been off it for a while.
Quote from: Madiel on March 16, 2022, 02:04:56 PM
It's about whether you, personally, know anything at all.
Well this is an area where I really am an expert, and I can assure you that I, personally, know that I think. And therefore, that I am.
Actually, maybe not. Maybe all I know is that there is a thought . . . ooooh, it's so difficult.
Romanian President Klaus Werner Iohannis* stated today in Kishinev, Republic of Moldavia: Romania will host and help as many refugees as will come.
Da! (Romanian equivalent of Yes!)
* he is an ethnic German and a Lutheran Christian yet he was elected President of a country whose vast majority is ethnic Romanian and Orthodox Christian --- by almost 70% of votes for that matter.
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 02:12:02 PMI did not ask you to post thousands of links, I asked you for a reason or two.
The article I linked included at least three reasons why the Russian air campaign has not been as effective as hoped/feared, and it was written by two journalists writing for the rather specialist Air Force Times. The people they quoted are actual experts.
Quote from: Todd on March 16, 2022, 02:26:39 PM
The article I linked included at least three reasons why the Russian air campaign has not been as effective as hoped/feared, and it was written by two journalists writing for the rather specialist Air Force Times. The people they quoted are actual experts.
Okay, I've read it again and again, carefully and carefully. There is absolutely nothing, zero, zilch, nada de nada in it that addresses the question of why the Russian air forces have been scarcely involved so far --- they just acknowledge the fact. I dare any GMGer to read it and come to a different conclusion than mine.
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 02:38:33 PM
Okay, I've read it again and again, carefully and carefully. There is absolutely nothing, zero, zilch, nada de nada in it that addresses the question of why the Russian air forces have been scarcely involved so far --- they just acknowledge the fact. I dare any GMGer to read it and come to a different conclusion than mine.
All the troll wants to do is provoke. He's not here for reasoned discussion.
I don't think NATO would put the Patriot SAMs in Ukraine. My guess is they are in Poland.
So, how would these missiles do against the SU-25s that are the principle ground attack planes in the Russian arsenal?
Cap and Simba can illustrate the essentials. Unlike the MANPADS, Patriots can reach high altitudes and they have longer range as well. In addition they are "telegraph poles" as the boys call them. SU-25s are tough beasts and a single Stinger might not bring them down.
https://www.youtube.com/v/asp69ZD_tO0
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 02:24:49 PM
Romanian President Klaus Werner Iohannis* stated today in Kishinev, Republic of Moldavia: Romania will host and help as many refugees as will come.
Da! (Romanian equivalent of Yes!)
* he is an ethnic German and a Lutheran Christian yet he was elected President of a country whose vast majority is ethnic Romanian and Orthodox Christian --- by almost 70% of votes for that matter.
Florestan -
I usually avoid these types of threads because they tend to get contentious and provide fertile troll-ground. But I do read this one regularly – not for the arguments and posted links that are among thousands available on line, but for the personal viewpoints and observations of those closer (both personally and geographically) to the conflict. In particular, I'm interested in your perspective based on your past and current experiences living where you are. Thanks for your insights.
Quote from: Madiel on March 15, 2022, 08:32:45 PM
*snip*
While I get the point of what you're saying, your very first word after claiming to summarize the video has nothing to do with the video.
You don't really bolster an argument about how other people are playing politics by immediately demonstrating your own desire to play politics. You could just as easily make a critical argument about what Trudeau is doing without the word "blackface", so why on earth are you distracting from the power of your argument about how people needlessly throw "Nazi" around by needlessly throwing in your own derogatory adjective?
I mean, you're criticising manipulation but couldn't resist throwing in your own bit of manipulation, at the exact moment when a bit of sobriety in tone would have made your case a heck of a lot better. Calling him "blackface Trudeau" just immediately communicates to me a non-neutral stance.
Because the point was to show hypocrisy, I'm not intending to manipulate. The point is like: He's so above Nazism and so pure that he would totally never do blackface, right?.. that kinda thing. I could have re-written it separately and maybe it could come across differently, maybe.
Manipulation is characterizing a mass movement of people only the bad part, because like .1% of that movement is bad. And the result influencing/manipulating public sentiment because they only see the few bad apples. Like there is one rotten spot on the food and someone says the whole thing should be thrown away because it will make them sick or whatever, but in reality, the rest of it is fine to eat. And the person tells the other he will throw away the bread but just eats in instead in private. :P
Pointing out he, alone, just referring to him, did blackface, is just a fact, not manipulation. It would be manipulation if I said that everyone who aligned with his liberal political beliefs also believed blackface is okay, and that's why their political concerns should be ignored. Which is obviously false.
Ukrainian Forces Strike Back at Russia, as Biden Sends More Firepower (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-counter-offensive-russia.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&module=&state=default®ion=footer&context=breakout_link_back_to_briefing)
After falling back under a relentless pounding over the war's first weeks, Ukrainian troops tried to gain some momentum with counterattacks on Russian positions outside of Kyiv and in the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, in Ukraine's south, a senior Ukrainian military official said.
Rather than seek to regain lost territory, Ukrainian forces tried to cause as much destruction and death as possible, attacking Russian troops and equipment with tanks, fighter jets and artillery, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military information.
"In the task of inflicting maximum losses, we've done excellently," the official said.
American intelligence officials said their conservative estimate of Russian troop deaths was at least 7,000, a staggering number that carries implications for both combat effectiveness and morale. Western defense and intelligence agencies estimate that Ukraine also has suffered thousands of combatants killed.
Is this the first counteroffensive?
Some guy in the notorious country of Romania found a Russian drone. The authorities are not pleased.
Romanian Defence Minister Vasile Dincu said on Monday evening that the drone that crashed near a village in Bistrita County in northern Romania was a reconnaissance UAV that did not have any explosives on board.
"It's not a very big drone. It's a drone toy, a metre and a bit wide. It is a search-information drone and did not carry explosives," Dincu said.
Quote from: greg on March 16, 2022, 05:59:24 PM
Because the point was to show hypocrisy, I'm not intending to manipulate. The point is like: He's so above Nazism and so pure that he would totally never do blackface, right?.. that kinda thing. I could have re-written it separately and maybe it could come across differently, maybe.
Manipulation is characterizing a mass movement of people only the bad part, because like .1% of that movement is bad. And the result influencing/manipulating public sentiment because they only see the few bad apples. Like there is one rotten spot on the food and someone says the whole thing should be thrown away because it will make them sick or whatever, but in reality, the rest of it is fine to eat. And the person tells the other he will throw away the bread but just eats in instead in private. :P
Pointing out he, alone, just referring to him, did blackface, is just a fact, not manipulation. It would be manipulation if I said that everyone who aligned with his liberal political beliefs also believed blackface is okay, and that's why their political concerns should be ignored. Which is obviously false.
The problem of this is the overarching logic. If specific incidents that took place decades ago are in play and can be used to characterise present entities, then referencing Ukraine as a Nazi state is allowed.
I think calling present-day Ukraine a Nazi State based on a couple of things that happened decades ago is stupid. That's also why I think using blackface as a descriptor of present-day Trudeau, based on incidents that happened decades ago, is stupid. But I think it would be quite inconsistent of me to suggest that neo-Nazis in Ukraine were irrelevant to the present day but Trudeau's choice of party costume was relevant.
You jumped in to comment on Trudeau's Nazi references, but at least Trudeau's references, however problematic, were in relation to present-day events. What we were actually talking about here in the "Europe at War" thread, before you tried to turn into a rerun of aspects of the coronavirus thread, were references to Ukraine.
He's just copying some QAnon stuff; no use arguing.
The far right is a rising problem in the US and across Europe. Notably young democracies like Ukraine are no exception.
But I don't see the immediate relevance with the current Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Those who do, are buying into Putin's narrative.
I was wondering why Ukraine keeps insisting on a "no fly" zone?
As we discussed, Russia is not dominating the skies. The main problem seems to be Russian artillery bombardments.
I don't see how you counter that with empty skies, or rather: an air battle between NATO and Russia...
Ukraine needs more aircrafts or more surface-to-surface missile installations.
Is the demand for a "no fly" zone part of an Ukrainian tactic to directly involve NATO into the conflict? Or perhaps it is to create leverage to get something else?
There's a video interview with a Ukrainian presidential adviser from 2019 predicting a likely major Russian invasion in 2020-22, including their advances along the 4 axis they actually choose, and saying that this would probably be the occasion for Ukraine to join NATO.
There's no doubt Ukraine had NATO ambitions back then, and that they were at least to some extent well-prepared for the current scenario. But they often seem to be too ambitious as regards NATO. I didn't check the video date, but Zelensky was elected in May 2019.
Quote from: Szykneij on March 16, 2022, 04:34:16 PM
Florestan -
I usually avoid these types of threads because they tend to get contentious and provide fertile troll-ground. But I do read this one regularly – not for the arguments and posted links that are among thousands available on line, but for the personal viewpoints and observations of those closer (both personally and geographically) to the conflict. In particular, I'm interested in your perspective based on your past and current experiences living where you are. Thanks for your insights.
Thank you.
Quote from: drogulus on March 16, 2022, 06:46:34 PM
Some guy in the notorious country of Romania found a Russian drone. The authorities are not pleased.
Romanian Defence Minister Vasile Dincu said on Monday evening that the drone that crashed near a village in Bistrita County in northern Romania was a reconnaissance UAV that did not have any explosives on board.
"It's not a very big drone. It's a drone toy, a metre and a bit wide. It is a search-information drone and did not carry explosives," Dincu said.
This incident came only a few days after a drone carrying explosive stuff crashed in Zagreb, Croatia.
I don't know what to make of it.
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 10:54:15 AM
Yes.
If that way of reasoning is representative, then it's hard to imagine the US ever supporting a European government with real measures. Imagine a GOP president in 2024 . . . who reduces US NATO commitments . . .
Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2022, 03:43:13 AM
If that way of reasoning is representative, then it's hard to imagine the US ever supporting a European government with real measures. Imagine a GOP president in 2024 . . . who reduces US NATO commitments . . .
I think the reasoning against an airbattle between NATO and Russian over Ukraine is sound and convincing.
Can Europe afford to be dependent on the US for its defence for much longer? No.
The EU needs its own robust defence structure ASAP. We need that European "army" I have been advocating before.
Hopefully the UK will be willing to some form of cooperation on this.
Fourth Russian general killed
BBC
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says another Russian general has been killed during fighting.
He didn't name the officer, but an adviser to Ukraine's interior ministry said Maj Gen Oleg Mityaev had been killed by the far-right Azov regiment.
Gen Mityaev was killed near Mariupol, Ukrainian media said.
He is the fourth general reportedly killed, leading some to ask why such senior members of the Russian military are so close to the front line.
Analysts believe that around 20 generals are leading Russian operations in Ukraine, meaning that if all the reported deaths are confirmed, one fifth of Russia's generals have been killed in action.
With such high losses, some experts believe that the generals have not simply been in the wrong place at the wrong time, but that Ukraine is likely to be targeting top-level Russian officers.
"I don't think this is an accident. One is an accident, but this many is targeted", Rita Konaev of Georgetown University told the BBC.
Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, a person within President Zelensky's inner circle said Ukraine had a military intelligence team dedicated to targeting Russia's officer class.
There's more of the story here (article by Ben Tobias): Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, a person within President Zelensky's inner circle said Ukraine had a military intelligence team dedicated to targeting Russia's officer class.
PD
Quote from: Que on March 17, 2022, 03:54:43 AM
I think the reasoning against an airbattle between NATO and Russian over Ukraine is sound and convincing.
Can Europe afford to be dependent on the US for its defence for much longer? No.
The EU needs its own robust defence structure ASAP. We need that European "army" I have been advocating before.
Hopefully the UK will be willing to some form of cooperation on this.
Yes, I agree with this
Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2022, 03:43:13 AMImagine a GOP president in 2024 . . . who reduces US NATO commitments . . .
That would be wonderful. It is less likely now, though, no matter who wins, though additional expansion might be a harder sell.
Quote from: Que on March 17, 2022, 03:54:43 AMThe EU needs its own robust defence structure ASAP. We need that European "army" I have been advocating before.
Remember the words of Lord Ismay, that the purpose of NATO was to "[k]eep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down[,]" and one can see how a remilitarized Germany might pose some issues. I suppose one might believe that European thinking has moved on, and that the French and British might very well accept a very powerful Germany at the core of defense. Maybe.
Turns out it is hard to not keep referring to the past, to old WWII. Why, just yesterday Zelenskyy beseeched Americans to remember Pearl Harbor.
Quote from: Que on March 17, 2022, 03:54:43 AM
Can Europe afford to be dependent on the US for its defence for much longer? No.
The EU needs its own robust defence structure ASAP. We need that European "army" I have been advocating before.
Hopefully the UK will be willing to some form of cooperation on this.
This is wishful thinking. For a multitude of reasons it's not going to happen.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2022, 03:43:13 AM
If that way of reasoning is representative, then it's hard to imagine the US ever supporting a European government with real measures. Imagine a GOP president in 2024 . . . who reduces US NATO commitments . . .
Easy to say when you don't bear any responsibility yourself.
One should always consider the possibility that just because a no fly zone is what they want, it doesn't follow that it's the best thing for them. Actual military people who aren't former comic actors and also aren't constrained in their world view due to being confined in a war zone, are nearly unanimous in their assessment that a no fly zone is a waste of time, lives and materiel. Trying to attach this pragmatic conclusion to future American political events, which are speculative at best, suggests that nothing that happens between elections has any independent value beyond how it might affect the next one. Pretty cynical...
🤠😎
Three Panama-flagged ships hit by missiles in Black Sea (https://safety4sea.com/three-panama-flagged-ships-hit-by-missiles-in-black-sea/)
Quote from: Que on March 17, 2022, 12:28:08 AM
I was wondering why Ukraine keeps insisting on a "no fly" zone?
As we discussed, Russia is not dominating the skies. The main problem seems to be Russian artillery bombardments.
I don't see how you counter that with empty skies, or rather: an air battle between NATO and Russia...
Ukraine needs more aircrafts or more surface-to-surface missile installations.
Is the demand for a "no fly" zone part of an Ukrainian tactic to directly involve NATO into the conflict? Or perhaps it is to create leverage to get something else?
Ukraine wants as much as it can get, and that requires that it demand even more.
Ukrainian cities are being bombarded by artillery, missiles and unguided rockets.
The Russians have a military that can destroy targets that don't move and don't fire back. For a number of reasons Russia isn't capable of fighting a well armed opponent force that can move and hide. One problem is the lack of coordination between air and ground operations, another is the lack of precision guided weaponry. Without effective air support Russian ground forces are vulnerable.
I think a no fly zone is too much risk. The alternative "some fly zone", which is what we have, is effective. Russians don't want to get shot down, and they will be shot down if they fly low enough to hit targets with the kind of weapons they have.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 17, 2022, 06:10:47 AM
Easy to say when you don't bear any responsibility yourself.
One should always consider the possibility that just because a no fly zone is what they want, it doesn't follow that it's the best thing for them. Actual military people who aren't former comic actors and also aren't constrained in their world view due to being confined in a war zone, are nearly unanimous in their assessment that a no fly zone is a waste of time, lives and materiel. Trying to attach this pragmatic conclusion to future American political events, which are speculative at best, suggests that nothing that happens between elections has any independent value beyond how it might affect the next one. Pretty cynical...
🤠😎
I want to get something clear. I wasn't arguing for a no fly zone at all. What I was struck by was the logic of the argument in that article. He was basically saying that they shouldn't do it because (1) Russia would resist and that would mean that the US was involved in a hot war with them. And (2) the USA may have to bear the brunt of economic sanctions. He dismissed humanitarian considerations -- saying that they were heart and not head.
So it looks to me that the argument which Andrei was agreeing with was based on a calculation of what lies in America's best interests, and that calculation would be the same whatever the European country being attacked, and whatever the extent of the suffering.
There are no values in his argument. His actions are guided by a utilitarian calculation
limited to a single nation. Self interested nationalism.
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2022, 02:12:02 PM
Incorrect.
I did not ask you to post thousands of links, I asked you for a reason or two.
But honestly, just never mind anymore. I'm really over and done.
The article Todd posted did suggest at least two possible reasons why there have been no large scale air operations supporting the invasion of Ukraine, to wit:
"Operational commanders have very little practical experience of how to plan, brief and coordinate complex air operations involving tens or hundreds of assets in a high-threat air environment," he wrote, adding that Russia, unlike Western militaries, doesn't rely on combined air operations centers to run that process."
Granted, there wasn't much specificity, but I read this to mean there are deficiencies in command and control infrastructure (the US has AWACs(?), flying command centers to coordinate air assets, Russia doesn't). The author further noted that recent Russian air adventures in Syria have involved only small formations of planes requiring no such large-scale coordination, meaning there is no recent experience among commanders in running such large operations. Just speculation on my part, but air operations in Syria also involved barrel bombs, cluster munitions, and other instruments of indiscriminate slaughter that would look horrible used on white people we currently care about. A few uses of cluster bombs in Mariupol involving civilians hit the internet last week. I have no idea if there is official concern about the optics of such terror weapons on the part of the Russians.
Oh, I see drogulus did a better job of it two posts back.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2022, 06:22:28 AM
So it looks to me that the argument which Andrei was agreeing with
Actually, I agreed with the idea that a no-fly zone would run a high risk of turning into a direct NATO-Russia war, ie WW3. Nobody wants that.
Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2022, 06:40:35 AM
Actually, I agreed with the idea that a no-fly zone would run a high risk of turning into a direct NATO-Russia war, ie WW3. Nobody wants that.
Ah yes, that makes sense to me!
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 17, 2022, 06:27:26 AM
The article Todd posted did suggest at least two possible reasons why there have been no large scale air operations supporting the invasion of Ukraine, to wit:
"Operational commanders have very little practical experience of how to plan, brief and coordinate complex air operations involving tens or hundreds of assets in a high-threat air environment," he wrote, adding that Russia, unlike Western militaries, doesn't rely on combined air operations centers to run that process."
Granted, there wasn't much specificity, but I read this to mean there are deficiencies in command and control infrastructure (the US has AWACs(?), flying command centers to coordinate air assets, Russia doesn't). The author further noted that recent Russian air adventures in Syria have involved only small formations of planes requiring no such large-scale coordination, meaning there is no recent experience among commanders in running such large operations. Just speculation on my part, but air operations in Syria also involved barrel bombs, cluster munitions, and other instruments of indiscriminate slaughter that would look horrible used on white people we currently care about. A few uses of cluster bombs in Mariupol involving civilians hit the internet last week. I have no idea if there is official concern about the optics of such terror weapons on the part of the Russians.
Oh, I see drogulus did a better job of it two posts back.
This war actually shows with each passing day that Russian Army is weak and ineffective. In a conventional war NATO would mop the floor with them.
Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2022, 05:48:29 AM
This is wishful thinking. For a multitude of reasons it's not going to happen.
It used to be. In the present time frame it has become a necessity without alternatives.
Quote from: Todd on March 17, 2022, 05:41:00 AM
Remember the words of Lord Ismay, that the purpose of NATO was to "[k]eep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down[,]" and one can see how a remilitarized Germany might pose some issues. I suppose one might believe that European thinking has moved on, and that the French and British might very well accept a very powerful Germany at the core of defense. Maybe.
We agree Germany is key here. I think Germany has turned over a new leaf, and so will the rest of Europe. We'll have to...
We can't remain stuck in the previous century if we are to survive as free and democratic nations.
Did the invasion of Ukraine safe Hungarian democacy in the nick of time?
Orbán treads fine line as Hungarian opinion swings against Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/17/orban-treads-fine-line-as-hungarian-opinion-swings-against-russia)
Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2022, 06:45:28 AM
This war actually shows with each passing day that Russian Army is weak and ineffective. In a conventional war NATO would mop the floor with them.
Ukrainians, Georgians, Chechens, and Syrians would all disagree with the first sentence. The second sentence is suspect and definitely not something Europeans or the world should want to see.
And any deficiencies Russia may have in conventional forces when compared to NATO are offset by nuclear weapons. By design.
Quote from: Que on March 17, 2022, 07:03:54 AMI think Germany has turned over a new leaf
But do French and British leaders think the same thing? And really, it comes down to whether the French think the same thing. The British can break away from the continent on security matters and build an even stronger relationship with the US if need be.
U.S. Is Sending Dive-Bombing Switchblade Drones to Ukraine (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/u-s-is-sending-dive-bombing-switchblade-drones-to-ukraine)
It's not everyday that the US gets to field test weapons systems against Russians.
AVAV shares are up 15% today. Probably not related to the news in any way.
Quote from: Que on March 17, 2022, 07:03:54 AM
We agree Germany is key here. I think Germany has turned over a new leaf, and so will the rest of Europe. We'll have to...
We can't remain stuck in the previous century if we are to survive as free and democratic nations.
NATO serves the interests on both sides of the ocean. The same is true of the US/Pacific alliances. The French may harbor residual suspicions about a rising Germany, and who could blame them? More relevant would be the struggle for European primacy in all spheres. So long as the US plays the role it has played for many decades these tensions are subdued. That's suits the US fine.
Alliances among the leading cooperators should be self-perpetuating to a degree that must be frustrating to those who hate on the idea. My view is that the present war reveals all the strengths and limits of NATO, and on balance it has proved its worth exactly as I would have hoped.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2022, 06:43:08 AM
Ah yes, that makes sense to me!
And is how I read him at first, BTW.
Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2022, 06:45:28 AM
This war actually shows with each passing day that Russian Army is weak and ineffective. In a conventional war NATO would mop the floor with them.
Overall that's good news, although obviously not in the boots-on-the-ground sense that since it's all the Russian army can manage to do, they're targeting and terrorizing civilians in apparent hope that this achieves their objective, the swine! And of course, there is the nuclear gorilla in the room.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2022, 04:12:22 AM
Fourth Russian general killed
BBC
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says another Russian general has been killed during fighting.
He didn't name the officer, but an adviser to Ukraine's interior ministry said Maj Gen Oleg Mityaev had been killed by the far-right Azov regiment.
Gen Mityaev was killed near Mariupol, Ukrainian media said.
He is the fourth general reportedly killed, leading some to ask why such senior members of the Russian military are so close to the front line.
Analysts believe that around 20 generals are leading Russian operations in Ukraine, meaning that if all the reported deaths are confirmed, one fifth of Russia's generals have been killed in action.
With such high losses, some experts believe that the generals have not simply been in the wrong place at the wrong time, but that Ukraine is likely to be targeting top-level Russian officers.
"I don't think this is an accident. One is an accident, but this many is targeted", Rita Konaev of Georgetown University told the BBC.
Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, a person within President Zelensky's inner circle said Ukraine had a military intelligence team dedicated to targeting Russia's officer class.
There's more of the story here (article by Ben Tobias): Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, a person within President Zelensky's inner circle said Ukraine had a military intelligence team dedicated to targeting Russia's officer class.
PD
Sorry, I forgot to add the link. It might just be a general one though--sorry, no pun intended! https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60767664
One other thing that surprised me, it sounds like that the Russians are not able to manage to create secure means of contacting each other--hence reason that the Ukrainians are able to get intel as to the locations of the officers. Also from that article:
For Ukraine to target specific Russian officers, it needs to know where they are. Analysts say that Russia has been using open channels of communications which could give clues about where certain targets are located.
"If the Russians are using mobile phones or analogue radios to communicate with senior officers, the Ukrainians have everything on their plate," defence analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting told the BBC.PD
Quote from: Todd on March 17, 2022, 07:40:57 AM
U.S. Is Sending Dive-Bombing Switchblade Drones to Ukraine (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/u-s-is-sending-dive-bombing-switchblade-drones-to-ukraine)
It's not everyday that the US gets to field test weapons systems against Russians.
AVAV shares are up 15% today. Probably not related to the news in any way.
I had heard these drones described on CNN, but didn't know that they hadn't been used before--or were you referring to Russians specifically? Have they been used elsewhere either by the US or other countries?
PD
Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2022, 06:45:28 AM
This war actually shows with each passing day that Russian Army is weak and ineffective. In a conventional war NATO would mop the floor with them.
Ineffective for sure. The most mystifying thing for the generals I've heard interviewed seems to be the failure to provide infantry support to those long armored columns. So we see tanks hit with shoulder fired antitank weapons from close range, followed by crews frying inside or spilling out to die on the road with no one to even pursue the attackers. Here's a recent case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKCwRVfVV3c
This has been happening for weeks now with no apparent attempt to remedy the situation. That looks like incompetent planning and leadership to me.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2022, 08:14:12 AM
And is how I read him at first, BTW.
It's just me -- I always home in on the argument rather than the conclusion!
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 17, 2022, 08:29:31 AM
Ineffective for sure. The most mystifying thing for the generals I've heard interviewed seems to be the failure to provide infantry support to those long armored columns. So we see tanks hit with shoulder fired antitank weapons from close range, followed by crews frying inside or spilling out to die on the road with no one to even pursue the attackers. Here's a recent case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKCwRVfVV3c
This has been happening for weeks now with no apparent attempt to remedy the situation. That looks like incompetent planning and leadership to me.
It's amazing how vulnerable these tanks are to guerrilla tactics. This doesn't bode well for Russia in a sustained conflict.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 17, 2022, 08:26:38 AM
I had heard these drones described on CNN, but didn't know that they hadn't been used before--or were you referring to Russians specifically? Have they been used elsewhere either by the US or other countries?
They were developed for and used in The War on Terror. The manufacturer has nifty webpages devoted to the drones.
SWITCHBLADE
® 300 (https://www.avinc.com/tms/switchblade)
SWITCHBLADE
® 600 (https://www.avinc.com/tms/switchblade-600)
The 300 is so cheap you might be able to pick one or two up for yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/v/JhNUKrfxpeg
Intel is making a gigantical investment in a chip fab in Germany. Go NATO!!
I have watched both the RAND game for Taiwan and the Fun (https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,31409.0.html) version from Grim Reapers.
The idea is to get some insight into the degree of difficulty China would face from an actual invasion. Cap & co. started their Taiwan series in January and I watched Day 1-4, but after that it looks like YT bowed to pressure from China, so Day 5 hasn't been released.
By unanimous acclaim Taiwan is a vital interest to the world economy. We understand the move by Intel in that light.
The End of Globalization?
What Russia's War in Ukraine Means for the World Economy (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2022-03-17/end-globalization?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The%20End%20of%20Globalization?&utm_content=20220317&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Given Mr Posen's profession, he obviously focuses on finance and economics almost exclusively, and he of course raises many valid and strong arguments. But two of the sentences are kinda, sorta at odds.
Quote from: Adam PosenBut it now seems likely that the world economy really will split into blocs—one oriented around China and one around the United States, with the European Union mostly but not wholly in the latter camp—each attempting to insulate itself from and then diminish the influence of the other.
Quote from: Adam PosenRight now, the United States' economic actions may be just, and there may be little risk of countries not invading Ukraine ending up on the wrong side of U.S. policies. But the next time, the United States may be more selfish or capricious.
The ideas underpinning the first sentence appear to be gaining ground in both non-specialist economic and security analyses, with a special focus on technology in the latter domain. Part of the problem, though, is that the second sentence applies globally. While there may be unanimity, for now, regarding the use of sanctions and economic warfare, various European powers have openly balked at the same policies in the past, and there is every reason to believe that they will do so in the future. This chips away at the competing two bloc framework. Starting with the ridiculously overblown War on Terror, national security has taken on more prominence, and the current war is only heightening those concerns. It is difficult to see many countries wanting to be as beholden to either China or the US as this and other authors suggest. Current trends in economic nationalism and national security still look like they will foster a more traditional multi-polar world. Greater regional integration may be fostered - eg, a truly effective EU, and maybe even a truly effective Mercosur - but if anything, it would seem that there would be multiple competing blocs, not just the West and the East, or the US and China, or whatever other label may apply. The subcontinent and Africa are rather major outliers in a simplified two bloc analysis, and while addressed to an extent in the article, every indication is that the power centers emerging in Africa and increasing soft and hard power in India will change the balance more than a little. Globalization may have died its second death though. Maybe the third time will be the charm.
Quote from: relm1 on March 17, 2022, 09:17:37 AM
It's amazing how vulnerable these tanks are to guerrilla tactics. This doesn't bode well for Russia in a sustained conflict.
It is surprising. But in the video I posted the tanks were vulnerable primarily because there were no infantry troops doing a sweep of the immediate vicinity. The attackers, likely firing old Soviet era RPGs, were hiding in a wood pile about 50 yards off the road(!) I can't imagine it should be that easy.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 17, 2022, 09:47:58 AM
https://www.youtube.com/v/JhNUKrfxpeg
Thanks Karl. Without a doubt, the greatest performance by Arnold.
Russian invasion spurs European demand for U.S. drones, missiles (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russian-invasion-spurs-european-demand-us-drones-missiles-2022-03-17/)
American defense contractors are going to make a mint this year.
Quote from: Todd on March 17, 2022, 01:41:12 PM
Russian invasion spurs European demand for U.S. drones, missiles (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russian-invasion-spurs-european-demand-us-drones-missiles-2022-03-17/)
American defense contractors are going to make a mint this year.
Which is, undoubtedly, the most important objective. ::)
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 17, 2022, 11:10:32 AM
It is surprising. But in the video I posted the tanks were vulnerable primarily because there were no infantry troops doing a sweep of the immediate vicinity. The attackers, likely firing old Soviet era RPGs, were hiding in a wood pile about 50 yards off the road(!) I can't imagine it should be that easy.
The Ukes have better recon on the ground and via drones. They know where the Russians are and the Russian don't know where they are until they are fired on.
Quote from: LKB on March 17, 2022, 02:32:40 PM
Which is, undoubtedly, the most important objective. ::)
I'm kicking myself that I didn't go on a defense stock buying spree. My portfolio is indistinguishable from that of a raving peacemonger. It's embarrassing.
Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2022, 03:24:14 PM
The Ukes have better recon on the ground and via drones. They know where the Russians are and the Russian don't know where they are until they are fired on.
I'm kicking myself that I didn't go on a defense stock buying spree. My portfolio is indistinguishable from that of a raving peacemonger. It's embarrassing.
Money is not a measure one should strive to be remembered by.
Quote from: LKB on March 17, 2022, 03:32:51 PM
Money is not a measure one should strive to be remembered by.
I will be remembered for my sense of humor.
Quote from: Madiel on March 16, 2022, 10:45:13 PM
I think calling present-day Ukraine a Nazi State based on a couple of things that happened decades ago is stupid. That's also why I think using blackface as a descriptor of present-day Trudeau, based on incidents that happened decades ago, is stupid.
I see what you mean, it is an issue of where to draw the line, how long to wait until such incidents aren't relevant any more.
Either he is truly a changed man, or he's only changed on the outside to appease his fellow party members.
Same can be said about certain other politicians... we won't go there... we've had previous discussions here in GMG on this and it doesn't fit this thread. But I'm not the only one bringing up incidents from the past to characterize the present state of politicians.
So you know what, probably it is pointless to mention the blackface. We don't know where his heart is and can't read his mind.
Quote from: Madiel on March 16, 2022, 10:45:13 PM
What we were actually talking about here in the "Europe at War" thread, before you tried to turn into a rerun of aspects of the coronavirus thread, were references to Ukraine.
Yeah, that tended to go a little off topic, my bad.
Just that the same patterns pop out hard, wanted to comment at how amusing it is to observe, regardless of leaders- whether it's Putin, Trudeau, etc.
We can leave it at that.
Quote from: Herman on March 17, 2022, 12:16:37 AM
He's just copying some QAnon stuff; no use arguing.
Another typically useless smear from you. You probably know more about QAnon than me, I don't know a single thing about it other than it's related to right-wing conspiracy stuff.
Also not an argument, rather a discussion IMO- at least Madiel seems to be listening and not making the worst assumptions constantly- you, on the other hand, have a habit of being like a deaf brick wall that spews venom, pretty pointless having a discussion with you.
(btw, what you're doing is the same thing I'm talking about in my posts lol)
Quote from: LKB on March 17, 2022, 01:31:01 PM
Thanks Karl. Without a doubt, the greatest performance by Arnold.
Wahrheit!
China sits still on the fence, with higher govt circles divided, and amidst US concerns:
China's decisive turning point: will it side with Russia and divide the world? (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/18/chinas-decisive-turning-point-will-it-side-with-russia-and-divide-the-world)
Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2022, 03:24:14 PM
... the Russian don't know where they are until they are fired on.
(...)
Not nice circumstances.
Rumours are also that many are using maps from 1987; a lot of things, including infrastructure and place names, have changed since then.
Quote from: drogulus on March 17, 2022, 03:24:14 PM
The Ukes have better recon on the ground and via drones. They know where the Russians are and the Russian don't know where they are until they are fired on.
I don't know whether or not you read my posting and link to a BBC news story, but I had added to it this (from the same article):
For Ukraine to target specific Russian officers, it needs to know where they are. Analysts say that Russia has been using open channels of communications which could give clues about where certain targets are located.
"If the Russians are using mobile phones or analogue radios to communicate with senior officers, the Ukrainians have everything on their plate," defence analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting told the BBC.
After the death of another senior officer - Maj Gen Vitaly Gerasimov - Ukraine released a recording purporting to be two Russian security officers discussing the general's death, and complaining that their secure communications network was not working.PD
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 18, 2022, 03:25:47 AM
Not nice circumstances.
"But," as Kutuzov says of the French in
War and Peace, "Nobody invited them."
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 18, 2022, 06:08:07 AM
"But," as Kutuzov says of the French in War and Peace, "Nobody invited them."
Very true
Karl - or, as someone darkly joked, the novel is now probably re-named 'Special Operation and Peace'.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 18, 2022, 05:22:26 AM
I don't know whether or not you read my posting and link to a BBC news story, but I had added to it this (from the same article):
For Ukraine to target specific Russian officers, it needs to know where they are. Analysts say that Russia has been using open channels of communications which could give clues about where certain targets are located.
"If the Russians are using mobile phones or analogue radios to communicate with senior officers, the Ukrainians have everything on their plate," defence analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting told the BBC.
After the death of another senior officer - Maj Gen Vitaly Gerasimov - Ukraine released a recording purporting to be two Russian security officers discussing the general's death, and complaining that their secure communications network was not working.
PD
This has been discussed on many news outlets, so I don't know where I first came across it.
Any postwar plan for Ukraine will include the provision that they will not join NATO, and that has already been conceded by Ukraine. Therefore the defense of the country will be along the lines of the relationship between Sweden and Finland, non-Nato states for now, and NATO. Public agreements will have not so public provisions.
Finland is replacing its aging air fleet...
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/F18_Hornet_-_RIAT_2018_%2830226236978%29.jpg/1280px-F18_Hornet_-_RIAT_2018_%2830226236978%29.jpg)
.....of American Hornets with a newer American plane, the F-35. US planes can carry the most modern missiles in the NATO inventory, and new weapons will be designed to work with the existing NATO platforms.
It's too early to say what Uke "neutrality" will look like. What is actually done will be as informative as what is said. I do wonder about where Sweden fits in. Sweden is kind of sort of not a NATO country. The Saab Gripen is a most excellent jet that can carry NATO weapons almost as though it was designed to carry NATO weapons.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 17, 2022, 12:46:02 AM
There's a video interview with a Ukrainian presidential adviser from 2019 predicting a likely major Russian invasion in 2020-22, including their advances along the 4 axis they actually choose, and saying that this would probably be the occasion for Ukraine to join NATO.
There's no doubt Ukraine had NATO ambitions back then, and that they were at least to some extent well-prepared for the current scenario. But they often seem to be too ambitious as regards NATO. I didn't check the video date, but Zelensky was elected in May 2019.
The interesting interview with Zelensky's military advisor Arestovich is from March 2019. He predicted it all and had the Ukrainian strategy thought out.
Putin today told about also the Russianness of Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine, Crimea etc., and promised the public to stick to "our future plans". Arestovich predicted a log-term Russian plan for a larger "Taiga Union" consisting at least of these countries, maybe also Kazakhstan and others, probably for around 2030, and likely decided for in 2007. A neutral Ukraine will mean its annexation into Russia; if so, Russia would then become too powerful for a fragmented Western Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xNHmHpERH8
original publication (use google translate) https://apostrophe-ua.translate.goog/article/politics/2019-03-18/polnotsennaya-voyna-s-rossiey-nachnetsya-cherez-paru-let---aleksey-arestovich/24496?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
African Americans and African Europeans help African students in Ukraine.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/18/tech/african-students-ukraine-social-media/index.html
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 18, 2022, 12:04:17 PM
The interesting interview with Zelensky's military advisor Arestovich is from March 2019. He predicted it all and had the Ukrainian strategy thought out.
Putin today told about also the Russianness of Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine, Crimea etc., and promised the public to stick to "our future plans". Arestovich predicted a log-term Russian plan for a larger "Taiga Union" consisting at least of these countries, maybe also Kazakhstan and others, probably for around 2030, and likely decided for in 2007. A neutral Ukraine will mean its annexation into Russia; if so, Russia would then become too powerful for a fragmented Western Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xNHmHpERH8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xNHmHpERH8)
original publication (use google translate) https://apostrophe-ua.translate.goog/article/politics/2019-03-18/polnotsennaya-voyna-s-rossiey-nachnetsya-cherez-paru-let---aleksey-arestovich/24496?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp (https://apostrophe-ua.translate.goog/article/politics/2019-03-18/polnotsennaya-voyna-s-rossiey-nachnetsya-cherez-paru-let---aleksey-arestovich/24496?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Putin will push the Ukrainians toward happiness with an iron hand!
https://www.youtube.com/v/pmMCYFKjWaQ
Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister praised Fox News for its coverage of the war in Ukraine during an in-studio interview with Russian state-controlled RT network. "We know the manners and the tricks that are being used by the western countries to manipulate media... If you take the United States, only Fox News is trying to present some alternative point of view." Lavrov said.
Lavrov's praise for Fox News reminds me of Putin's earlier praise for Brexit. Are some of us (in the west) really that stupid? ::)
Quote from: Que on March 18, 2022, 04:19:34 PM
Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister praised Fox News for its coverage of the war in Ukraine during an in-studio interview with Russian state-controlled RT network. "We know the manners and the tricks that are being used by the western countries to manipulate media... If you take the United States, only Fox News is trying to present some alternative point of view." Lavrov said.
Lavrov's praise for Fox News reminds me of Putin's earlier praise for Brexit. Are some of us (in the west) really that stupid? ::)
I'll wager that Fox's audience are ....
Naw, the people lapping up Fox's bs are undoubtedly confident that Vlad the Mad will find a way to declare " victory ", thus vindicating the former Dickhead-in-Chief, Tucker Soulless and the fool- of- the- week Cawthorn in one fell swoop.
Quote from: drogulus on March 18, 2022, 08:01:22 AM
This has been discussed on many news outlets, so I don't know where I first came across it.
Any postwar plan for Ukraine will include the provision that they will not join NATO, and that has already been conceded by Ukraine. Therefore the defense of the country will be along the lines of the relationship between Sweden and Finland, non-Nato states for now, and NATO. Public agreements will have not so public provisions.
Finland is replacing its aging air fleet...
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/F18_Hornet_-_RIAT_2018_%2830226236978%29.jpg/1280px-F18_Hornet_-_RIAT_2018_%2830226236978%29.jpg)
.....of American Hornets with a newer American plane, the F-35. US planes can carry the most modern missiles in the NATO inventory, and new weapons will be designed to work with the existing NATO platforms.
It's too early to say what Uke "neutrality" will look like. What is actually done will be as informative as what is said. I do wonder about where Sweden fits in. Sweden is kind of sort of not a NATO country. The Saab Gripen is a most excellent jet that can carry NATO weapons almost as though it was designed to carry NATO weapons.
Well, the Finns would have done better to have held out for something better than F-35's, but since nobody asked me l won't stress on it. :D
Quote from: LKB on March 18, 2022, 06:29:08 PM
Well, the Finns would have done better to have held out for something better than F-35's, but since nobody asked me l won't stress on it. :D
We've gone beyond the "what a kludge, it will never work right" stage and what I gather is we're well into the "OMFG this thing is a monster" phase. Now the main objection is that it's expensive to buy and operate.
Quote from: Que on March 18, 2022, 04:19:34 PM
Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister praised Fox News for its coverage of the war in Ukraine during an in-studio interview with Russian state-controlled RT network. "We know the manners and the tricks that are being used by the western countries to manipulate media... If you take the United States, only Fox News is trying to present some alternative point of view." Lavrov said.
Lavrov's praise for Fox News reminds me of Putin's earlier praise for Brexit. Are some of us (in the west) really that stupid? ::)
Tucker Carlson's editorials are routinely quoted in full on a conservative, nationalist, conspiracy-theory news & ops Romanian website whose stance is that while Putin is a contemptible criminal the invasion of Ukraine is just the latest step toward the Great Reset (the prior one being the Covid pandemics) and the world leaders and organizations, including BIden, Macron, SCholz, Johnson and NATO, are complicit to that. ;)
I am astosnished to see that many people who profess to be conservatives consider Putin as one of their own and Russia as a country worthy of admiration and emulation. I believe that, on the contrary, an intellectually honest and morally principled conservative should recoil in horror at both.
Sanctions: the Atlantic Faroe Islands, that have gotten some bad press due to their whaling, will join the sanctions and abolish the fish/salmon export to Russia, which constitues no less than 1/4 of the region's export profits and have contributed a lot to their increased standard of living. They probably think that they can find alternative markets. It's considered the best-quality salmon available.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 12:54:08 AM
I am astosnished to see that many people who profess to be conservatives consider Putin as one of their own and Russia as a country worthy of admiration and emulation. I believe that, on the contrary, an intellectually honest and morally principled conservative should recoil in horror at both.
It all makes sense if we realise the ideological similarities: identity politics, nationalism, authoritarianism, the idealisation of power and the use of force over dialogue and cooperation. The animosity towards minorities, those that are "different" or perceived "weak". Putin's concocted story of the history of Russia and "Russianess" - it's "Blut und Boden" all over again.
The ugly thruth is that the threat to peace and democacy is not just coming from Putin, but is also coming from within our own societies and political systems. Yet another analogy with the 1930's BTW....
Mmmm... salmon...
Sorry, it's been a while since any smoked salmon came my way.
More power to the Faroes, l expect they'll eventually find customers to replace the Russians.
Quote from: Que on March 19, 2022, 01:37:47 AM
It all makes sense if we realise the ideological similarities: identity politics, nationalism, authoritarianism, the idealisation of power and the use of force over dialogue and cooperation. The animosity towards minorities, those that are "different" or perceived "weak". Putin's concocted story of the history of Russia and "Russianess" - it's "Blut und Boden" all over again.
The ugly thruth is that the threat to peace and democacy is not just coming from Putin, but is also coming from within our own societies and political systems. Yet another analogy with the 1930's BTW....
" Those who fail to remember the past... "
The Russians are now employing hypersonic missiles:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-reports-using-advanced-hypersonic-missile-in-ukraine-for-first-time/
Quote from: LKB on March 19, 2022, 02:13:40 AM
The Russians are now employing hypersonic missiles:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-reports-using-advanced-hypersonic-missile-in-ukraine-for-first-time/
It seems that since Putin's "cannon fodder" cannot/ will not fight, throwing bombs is his only option.
Putin throwing in his latest and undoubtedly secret gadgets, is not a good sign - he is desperate for his "victory".
We are dangerously close to Russian chemical and biological warfare, which is only one step away from the deployment of a small tactical nuclear weapon.
Aside from any other considerations, employing your latest weapons unnecessarily in a theater where your adversary ( in this context NATO/US, not Ukraine ) has advanced reconnaissance capabilities is rarely wise. I wonder if anyone mentioned that to Vlad the Mad. Or perhaps he just had to play with his new toy, regardless of advice.
Quote from: Que on March 19, 2022, 01:37:47 AM
It all makes sense if we realise the ideological similarities: identity politics, nationalism, authoritarianism, the idealisation of power and the use of force over dialogue and cooperation. The animosity towards minorities, those that are "different" or perceived "weak". Putin's concocted story of the history of Russia and "Russianess" - it's "Blut und Boden" all over again.
The ugly thruth is that the threat to peace and democacy is not just coming from Putin, but is also coming from within our own societies and political systems. Yet another analogy with the 1930's BTW....
it's on the left and the right if you go to the extremes. There IS a left, and I know some of them personally I'm sorry to say, who blame "the west" completely and talk up the supposedly fascist elements (echoing Putin) in Ukraine. Gabbard is not a lone wolf in this regard. I had to finally unfriend an old college mate for constantly tagging me in his pro-China, pro-Russia FB posts - he's not a right winger, but a world-socialist type. I agree the Tucker Carlson right is pretty bad and perhaps more popular but, still, identity politics is hardly a right wing ploy. Conservatives may have changed but ethnic nationalism wasn't mainstream conservatism of the past. There's always the fringe though.
Quote from: milk on March 19, 2022, 04:02:17 AM
it's on the left and the right if you go to the extremes. There IS a left, and I know some of them personally I'm sorry to say, who blame "the west" completely and talk up the supposedly fascist elements (echoing Putin) in Ukraine. Gabbard is not a lone wolf in this regard. I had to finally unfriend an old college mate for constantly tagging me in his pro-China, pro-Russia FB posts - he's not a right winger, but a world-socialist type. I agree the Tucker Carlson right is pretty bad and perhaps more popular but, still, identity politics is hardly a right wing ploy. Conservatives may have changed but ethnic nationalism wasn't mainstream conservatism of the past. There's always the fringe though.
Both fringes of the political spectrum are concerning, agreed. But in the US (or in Europe) the extreme left is hardly a relevant political factor. The threat to democracy comes from the radicalisation of (parts of) mainstream conservatism. In the US "America first" and stoking the fears of the white Christian middle class are examples of nationalism and identity politics right there. Questioning the legitimacy of the election process, politicising the Supreme Court and extreme gerrymandering are all authoritarian and anti-democratic tendencies of
mainstream conservatism. Trump even had his very own
Beer Hall Putsch (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_Hall_Putsch)...
But the main topic here is not US politics. And I'm not implying that Europe is any better/different: there are many worrying examples accross Europe, ranging from the UK, France, Poland to Hungary. Any possible further discussion on the US specifically, should be on the US politics thread.
Quote from: Que on March 19, 2022, 01:37:47 AM
It all makes sense if we realise the ideological similarities: identity politics, nationalism, authoritarianism, the idealisation of power and the use of force over dialogue and cooperation. The animosity towards minorities, those that are "different" or perceived "weak". Putin's concocted story of the history of Russia and "Russianess" - it's "Blut und Boden" all over again.
None of the above is a genuinely conservative position, the most conspicuous case being that of ethnic nationalism which was in fact one of the main tenets of 19th century liberalism and against which the conservatives fought fiercely --- Mazzini vs. Metternich. As for authoritarianism, I will only say that in the last quarter of the 19th century in Romania the staunchest and most uncompromisingly defender and practitioner of the freedom of the press was the Conservative Party, while the leader of the National Liberal Party was nicknamed "The Vizier", which in a country that was for centuries under Ottoman suzerainty bears heavy connotations. :D
The discussion is long and off-topic, though, so I'll just say that my idea of conservatism bears little resemblance with what passes today for conservatism and leave it at that.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 05:34:05 AM
The discussion is long and off-topic, though, so I'll just say that my idea of conservatism bears little resemblance with what passes today for conservatism and leave it at that.
No argument there. But that's always the way in which the extreme left or right ever get to power: they "hijack" the political centre.
I forgot to highlight kleptocracy as an important factor in the present state of Russian politics that led up to this war. Kleptocractic tendencies and corruption are by nature a threat to democracy and can been seen in the US as well as several Europea countries.
Biden Warns China of 'Consequences' if It Aids Russia in Ukraine War (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/18/world/europe/biden-xi-russia-china.html)
The US as global tough guy, threatening to expand the economic war to two fronts. That's the kind of thing that can transmogrify into a two front armed conflict.
As much power as the US possesses, causing another global recession and possible global war would more likely than not result in a forcible change to the global order, yielding one much less satisfactory than the current order, even with a hapless sovereign nation carved up.
Xi says improper handling of Taiwan issues will hit China-U.S. ties (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xi-says-improper-handling-taiwan-issues-will-hit-china-us-ties-2022-03-18/)
And if the US can issue threats, so can China. Maybe negotiate away Taiwanese independence for a cessation to hostilities in Ukraine?
I also wonder if the US and its allies can take on Russia and China simultaneously in a direct confrontation without endangering the present world order and economy. If push comes to shove, we'll discover that China holds power over essential resources that we need to mantain our economic standards.
The best case scenario is that China stays on the sideline, but I'm not very confident. It might rather see this as an golden opportunity to make its own moves.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 12:54:08 AM
Tucker Carlson's editorials are routinely quoted in full on a conservative, nationalist, conspiracy-theory news & ops Romanian website whose stance is that while Putin is a contemptible criminal the invasion of Ukraine is just the latest step toward the Great Reset (the prior one being the Covid pandemics) and the world leaders and organizations, including BIden, Macron, SCholz, Johnson and NATO, are complicit to that. ;)
I am astosnished to see that many people who profess to be conservatives consider Putin as one of their own and Russia as a country worthy of admiration and emulation. I believe that, on the contrary, an intellectually honest and morally principled conservative should recoil in horror at both.
What has happened in the US is: if you're not in the tank with the disgraced former president, "you aren't a conservative."
Quote from: Que on March 19, 2022, 01:37:47 AM
The ugly thruth is that the threat to peace and democacy is not just coming from Putin, but is also coming from within our own societies and political systems. Yet another analogy with the 1930's BTW....
QFT
If the current situation devolves into a global, (non-nuclear) total war, or something even close to it, then no, The West cannot win. The post-war economic system globalized too many economic factors, which explicitly means that resource extraction and lower value added but still critical components of all global supply chains have been outsourced to regions more directly swayed or controlled by Eurasian land powers. In simple terms, a worst-case scenario could see China cutoff or destroy production capacity of critical outputs in Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam; China could or would obviously cutoff Chinese exports to the West; and Russia and Iran would be able to supply oil to the "new axis" at levels that cannot be matched by The West and its allies, real or transactional - ie, The House of Saud. (Perhaps the most significant shift in regional politics is the ever-increasing influence and power of Iran in the Middle East, thereby putting an end to the Carter Doctrine.) The full military might of the US, meaning overwhelming naval and air power, will not be able to overcome the geographical advantages of the new axis. The US cannot bomb the entire Eurasian land mass, hitting all land routes and sea routes at all times. Allied military capacity (ie, French and British capabilities) in this regard is essentially irrelevant.
The US is fortunate enough to be less dependent than European countries with regard to key resources (eg, hydrocarbons) and can ramp up industrial production to levels that match or surpass China in some key areas, and the US has enough other resources (eg, rare earth elements) that it can remove production restrictions and move toward ever elusive autarky in some arenas. (On the domestic front, environmental groups and even Native American groups are already seeing the effects of this shift as mining restrictions are being revised; the US will ravage some areas to keep key technology production going, as it must.) These are some of the reasons why the US should begin to reduce its commitment to Europe and shift focus to hemispheric engagement to achieve a greater degree of economic independence from Eurasia.
If things go nuclear, well, then, shit.
The decline of oil based power will continue. The most advanced technological countries will align regardless of which continent they are on. For some reason people think China is one of the advanced countries because it makes goods it sells to advanced countries. But it's not true. Japan actually is advanced, so when it passed its peak as importer of consumer goods it has continued to thrive. China can't do that. They can't make a decent chip for their own markets.
How about the "decline of the West" so eagerly awaited by Western masochists?
(https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/westernadvantage.png)
Boris Johnson compares Ukraine's fight for freedom to Brexit and resisting wokeness
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-compares-ukraines-fight-26507434
Man raps about killing Putin during Texas town council meeting
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1504902960622583811
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2022, 06:37:56 AM
What has happened in the US is: if you're not in the tank with the disgraced former president, "you aren't a conservative."
Whoever is not with us is against us was an official dogma of the Romanian Communist Party ruling the Socialist Republic of Romania, 1948-1989.
Now, technically and ethnically (pun) speaking, I am a Romanian 1848-Revolution-style liberal --- which in contemporary terms would translate as mostly centrist / moderately conservative in all matters political, economical and social, save in foreign policy matters, which are decidedly and uncompromisingly Russophobic. Ever since 1848, increasingly since 1856 and overwhelmingly since 1878-79, the maxim which guided Romanian foreign policy, no matter the party in power, was "Alliance with anyone but Russia". After the forcible 1948-1989 hiatus and a short domination of former Communists thereafter we resumed the said foreign policy --- the important thing to notice is that no matter the party in power, be it Socialists and their allies or Liberals and their allies, the stated and pursued goal was to join NATO and EU, which we eventually achieved it in 2004 and 2007 respectively. Contrary to the Putinist / Fringe Leftist propaganda, it's not NATO and EU which forced themselves upon our throats --- it's we as a vast majority of the Romanian people which wanted to join them.
Do I think the USA, the leading NATO country, is blameless? No. Do I think EU is blameless? No. But I do sincerely, honestly and earnestly believe that (1) Romania had, has and will have no better choice, and (2) in our whole history we have never been in a better position than we are now, in political, economical and security terms.
And to all those who say --- and there quite a few --- that we Romanians have more in common with our Orthodox Russian brothers than with the Catholic and Protestant West, I say first and foremost "Fuck off!" and then urge them to read Matthew 7: 22-23. Plus, I'm not a fan of Pope Francis but he is to Patriarch Kirill as Mother Theresa is to Stalin.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 19, 2022, 07:51:05 AM
Man raps about killing Putin during Texas town council meeting
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1504902960622583811
Par for the course, in Texas.
Quote from: LKB on March 19, 2022, 07:52:54 AM
Par for the course, in Texas.
You wrote that you could murder Putin.
Russians were go-to movie villains in the 1980s. What a new Cold War might bring (https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/19/entertainment/cold-war-movies-and-tv/index.html)
Thoughtful, relevant analysis from CNN.
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 07:55:19 AM
You wrote that you could murder Putin.
That I did, though the more appropriate term would be, " assassinate. "
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 07:56:27 AM
Russians were go-to movie villains in the 1980s. What a new Cold War might bring (https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/19/entertainment/cold-war-movies-and-tv/index.html)
Thoughtful, relevant analysis from CNN.
As
Karl recently noted, cancelling
Tchaikovsky's
1812 Overture is plain stupid --- as it celebrates precisely the repelling of a megalomanical tyrant's invasion by patriotically-minded forces, both military and civilian. Plus, Tchaikovsky died before 1900, so what could he possibly have had in common with Putin? ???
I can very wery well understand political Russophobia --- I subscribe to it myself. Cultural Russophobia, otoh... :o
Quote from: LKB on March 19, 2022, 07:58:09 AM
That I did, though the more appropriate term would be, " assassinate. "
Sophisticated.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 08:04:12 AMI can very very well understand political Russophobia --- I subscribe to it myself.
I understand it - it can garner votes in the US. Since I will never run for any elected position, I can never subscribe to it, or any other ethnic phobia (eg, Sinophobia). Besides, it would grow exhausting, what with all those monsters the US must destroy.
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 08:10:33 AM
I understand it - it can garner votes in the US.
I am not a US citizen. I am a Romanian citizen. As such, my first and foremost concern is Romania's security, which is inextricably linked to NATO and EU.
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 08:10:33 AM
I can never subscribe to it, or any other ethnic phobia (eg, Sinophobia).
I am not an ethnic Russophobe. I am not an ethnic Sinophobe. I am a politically, economically and socially Russophobe and Sinophobe. If you really can't or won't make the difference, then please spare me any further reply on the issue, thank you.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 08:23:19 AMI am not an ethnic Russophobe. I am not an ethnic Sinophobe. I am a politically, economically and socially Russophobe and Sinophobe. If you really can't or won't make the difference, then please spare me any further reply on the issue, thank you.
I understand the difference. I do not fear any group or ethnicity in any domain, political, cultural, economic, or whatever. Well, maybe Tongans.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 19, 2022, 07:51:05 AM
Man raps about killing Putin during Texas town council meeting
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1504902960622583811
That takes the cake as one of the most cringiest things I've ever seen, only lasted a few seconds watching that. This will be the headliner of every new cringe compilation video now.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 08:04:12 AM
As Karl recently noted, cancelling Tchaikovsky's 1812 Overture is plain stupid --- as it celebrates precisely the repelling of a megalomanical tyrant's invasion by patriotically-minded forces, both military and civilian. Plus, Tchaikovsky died before 1900, so what could he possibly have had in common with Putin? ???
I can very wery well understand political Russophobia --- I subscribe to it myself. Cultural Russophobia, otoh... :o
That sort of thing is about virtue signaling, not broad ideas or logic. There's alcohol stores throwing away their vodka here in the US, one place got rid of Russian condiments... I'm sure that's going to be unrecoverable, shattering damage to Putin's teeny tiny cold, black heart.
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 08:29:03 AM
I understand the difference.
I am relieved, I really am. ;)
QuoteI do not fear any group or ethnicity in any domain, political, cultural, economic, or whatever.
Group or ethnicity, yes, I don't fear either.
It's governments and their (armed) policies that I fear.
No, really. Todd, are you going to tell me / us that it's indifferent to you whether you live under the respective political, economical and social policies of the USA, Russia or China?
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 08:41:26 AMNo, really. Todd, are you going to tell me / us that it's indifferent to you whether you live under the respective political, economical and social policies of the USA, Russia or China?
I do not and will not live in China or Russia. I may visit those countries - I'd love to see Lake Baikal in person, or the eastern edge of the Taklamakan. I will not have to worry about living under the political, economic, and social policies of those countries.
Cold wars will bring all kinds of attitudes. The worst will come from ethnic nationalists who will attack Koreans for being Chinese, and won't spare actual Chinese as well.
Regarding the West and the principles it occasionally abides by and hopes to spread, one proposed solution is to abandon them in favor of some version of realism which disregards as irrelevant what publics want in democratic countries. That seems oxymoronic to me, a form of anti-realist idealism. People should cease to care about what they care about. Realism should be like an abstraction and less like what people want.
I think we can get over the hump of Chinese decline better than China can. Right now Xi is confronted with a classic "use it or lose it" dilemma. I think we can help out a bit by discouraging Chinese aggression, and though Ukraine is being defended for reasons particular to Europe/NATO, there's more at stake.
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 08:48:51 AM
I do not and will not live in China or Russia. I may visit those countries - I'd love to see Lake Baikal in person, or the eastern edge of the Taklamakan. I will not have to worry about living under the political, economic, and social policies of those countries.
I think you're wrong. Freedom is not for free. There is a price you have to pay for you not having to worry about living under the political, economic, and social policies of [Russia or China]. It's the same price we all, who don't want to have to worry about living under the political, economic, and social policies of those countries, have to pay. I, for one, am willing to pay it. The question is, are you?
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 08:48:51 AM
I do not and will not live in China or Russia. I may visit those countries - I'd love to see Lake Baikal in person, or the eastern edge of the Taklamakan. I will not have to worry about living under the political, economic, and social policies of those countries.
I was in Taiwan for a few weeks, long ago. Lovely people, interesting food, and a surprising pop culture. I keep telling my friends to visit while it retains its independence.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 09:14:47 AMFreedom is not for free...I, for one, am willing to pay it. The question is, are you?
Not quite sure what this is supposed to even mean. I pay my taxes. That tiny action helps fund the most powerful war machine in history. And that combined with two massive oceans separating the US from the Eurasian land mass helps assure, for the rest of my life and well beyond, US security. I will not have to worry about living under the political, economic, and social policies of China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, a unified Europe, or whatever other Very Bad Actor may threaten to rule the USA.
If you are trying to inquire about whether I would fight and die for the US, no, I would not. The US military would not want me to; I am well past the maximum enlistment age even for US Space Force. Perhaps if Chinese Special Forces invaded the suburbs of Portland and threatened to seize my Beethoven piano sonata collection I might dust off my Remington 11-48 and fight back with the ferocity of Comanche warriors, but in the real world, the US Air Force, US Navy, US Army, and US Marines would do the fighting for me.
It would be good to fight elsewhere than the US. I'd pay a lot for that. The question is, are we paying really a lot for value received? In my estimation the answer is no. The proportion of GDP for military expenditure isn't very high.
(https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/include/usgs_chart2p31.png)
I would spend more to acquire more advanced planes and missiles. Chinese missiles are pretty good and we need something to handle Chinese SAMs. That way we might not have to use the less good ones we have now.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 10:09:16 AMand excluding the threat that EU might pose to the USA, which I take as a rhetorical device. I mean, Todd, really? China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are to USA as the EU is to USA?
The EU threatens no one. I wrote about a
unified Europe. That does not currently exist. If it did exist, it would represent a direct economic threat to the US, and potentially a military threat. That is why the US should oppose, more clandestinely and bureaucratically than directly (for now), more effective integration and unification of Europe. I do not view Europeans as being better than Russians, Chinese, Iranians, etc. Europe's unsurpassed history of gruesome violence and exploitation prevents that.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 11:10:40 AMNATO always and forever!
No international relations and security framework has existed forever. The existing international order and NATO will be no different.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 11:14:10 AM
Putinist propaganda...
It is a recognition of the brutal past - ancient and recent - of Europe. I expect most Europeans and Americans to display a certain degree of cultural chauvinism when extolling the virtues of The West.
Interestingly, while Russia has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine has imported battalions of foreign fighters who are committing war crimes and whatever, we're hearing a lot from actual foreign fighters who travelled to Ukraine (mostly from the USA/Western Europe) via Telegram, Twitter and other social media and they're pretty much universally complaining about not being given anything to do: they were largely stationed at military bases in the Lviv area, far from the front lines; a large number were killed by Russian cruise missiles; Ukrainian National Guard/Territorial Defense units are highly suspicious of them and have even detained and killed a few as suspected spies; and the majority seem to be planning to head back home. It's unclear if this is because the Ukrainian government doesn't want to risk the deaths of foreign fighters potentially drawing NATO into a war that would undoubtedly destroy the country's infrastructure to a much greater degree than is already being done, or if it's because the Ukrainian government is confident in the ability of its own troops and irregulars to fight the Russians to a standstill on their own.
Regardless, it seems that if you're not a Ukrainian citizen but still want a chance to fight the Russians on their behalf, you're not very likely to get the opportunity.
Not much else to report: some 250,000 people (out of a normal population of 450,000) are reportedly still trapped in Mariupol, with remaining Ukrainian forces dug in around the steelworks complex on the true left of the Kalmius river. Claims that 80% of the city's buildings have been destroyed are inaccurate, but it's likely that a very high percentage have been damaged and it'll take weeks to restore power and water. RuAF is obliged to do so and provide humanitarian aid, as per the ongoing Belarus talks, but with various death squads/contras (Kadyrovtsy, Russian National Socialists, Eurasianists, etc) acting as the point of the spear, it has plausible deniability if that doesn't happen. (It would of course be politically expedient for Russia to rebuild Mariupol since the city is largely Russian-speaking and presumably would be annexed into any Donbas puppet state, but the Russian government has long since lost any support it once had from Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine, and therefore may be more bent on petty revenge than political benefit.)
Quote from: amw on March 19, 2022, 11:44:47 AM
bleep wah wah bloop
Got any old hammer & sickle t-shirts in the closet? Please.
Quote from: Florestan on March 19, 2022, 11:59:02 AM
Bullshiit, bullshit and bullshit
I'm a Chinese food chauvinist. Its a tragic reality that McDonalds has done more for Western neo-imperialism than any other food items in the Western armamentarium.
Quote from: Que on March 18, 2022, 01:44:59 AM
China sits still on the fence, with higher govt circles divided, and amidst US concerns:
Well, looks like Pute gives better phone call than Biden does....
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 11:23:18 AM
It is a recognition of the brutal past - ancient and recent - of Europe.
So, your argument is what happened before must happen again because it's the same geographical area? ::)
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 19, 2022, 01:27:40 PM
So, your argument is what happened before must happen again because it's the same geographical area? ::)
Must, no. Almost certainly will, yes. This of course excludes the rather obvious fact that there is a large-scale European war happening
right now.
Russian cosmonauts are very naughty.
(https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1689,w_3000,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_690/fl_lossy,q_auto/Cosmo_vg4ar0)
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 19, 2022, 01:27:40 PM
So, your argument is what happened before must happen again because it's the same geographical area? ::)
Why not? Show me a continent without a brutal past. My recommendation is that continents should stay as far apart as possible.
Quote from: drogulus on March 19, 2022, 02:30:59 PM
Russian cosmonauts are very naughty.
(https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1689,w_3000,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_690/fl_lossy,q_auto/Cosmo_vg4ar0)
What these cosmonauts did was more significant-and more risky-than it may seem to those unaware of how the Russian command structure works with cosmonauts aboard the ISS. They may pay, heavily, if they haven't already.
Quote from: LKB on March 19, 2022, 02:40:58 PM
What these cosmonauts did was more significant-and more risky-than it may seem to those unaware of how the Russian command structure works with cosmonauts aboard the ISS.
How does Russian command structure work with cosmonauts aboard the ISS?
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 02:45:57 PM
How does Russian command structure work with cosmonauts aboard the ISS?
For example, it seems that cosmonauts are
personally penalized for reporting mechanical, electronic or systemic problems with Russian portions of the ISS. Simply put, it costs them money if they tell Roscosmos about a problem. So whenever the ground asks them how it's going, they invariably say, " fine ", and then proceed to fix whatever is broken that day without the ground's involvement.
See Scott Kelly's
Endurance, if interested, for specific examples.
Regarding the yellow suits, the official Russian response as reported by the BBC:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60804949
Quote from: LKB on March 19, 2022, 02:57:31 PM
For example, it seems that cosmonauts are personally penalized for reporting mechanical, electronic or systemic problems with Russian portions of the ISS. Simply put, it costs them money if they tell Roscosmos about a problem. So whenever the ground asks them how it's going, they invariably say, " fine ", and then proceed to fix whatever is broken that day without the ground's involvement.
See Scott Kelly's Endurance, if interested, for specific examples.
Quote from: LKB on March 19, 2022, 03:06:07 PM
Regarding the yellow suits, the official Russian response as reported by the BBC:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60804949
So then what does "pay, heavily" for wearing suits mean?
Putin arrested a general for supposedly leaking information about Russian casualties. My view is that the Russians are behaving exactly as though their losses are so high they can't advance, and that's why they are launching more missile attacks, even though there's not the slightest evidence that blowing up buildings helps them at all. We don't need no Russian generals to help us figure out what's going on.
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 03:17:00 PM
So then what does "pay, heavily" for wearing suits mean?
Fine, I'll play along.
Considering the current Russian intolerance of even suggestions of dissent, and an established disciplinary structure for cosmonauts who " misbehave ", they might see changes in career paths, salary forfeiture, a sudden inability to contact family in the ground... any number of actions could be taken, and there's no reason to assume the actions would be public.
May I remind everyone that the head of Russia's space program has mused in public about the ISS crashing to Earth because of sanctions, and there have been threats to leave up there the US astronaut currently up there as a response to the US's actions re Ukraine.
The Russians have committed, within the last week or so, to a spot for Mark Vande Hei in the returning Soyuz as usual.
As for the Roscosmos guy, he's been saying incendiary things for a while, though lately he's been piling on the drama.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 19, 2022, 06:37:56 AM
What has happened in the US is: if you're not in the tank with the disgraced former president, "you aren't a conservative."
This is unfortunately the mindset that is most appalling. I'm more conservative in my beliefs, but I am not for Putin (or Trump) and I'm all for treating him as a terroristic threat, which he undoubtedly is at this point.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 19, 2022, 07:49:15 PM
This is unfortunately the mindset that is most appalling. I'm more conservative in my beliefs, but I am not for Putin (or Trump) and I'm all for treating him as a terroristic threat, which he undoubtedly is at this point.
+1
News this morning:
Russia strikes Ukraine with cruise missiles from two seas
"March 20 (Reuters) - Russia struck Ukraine with cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea,and launched hypersonic missiles from Crimean airspace, the Russian defence ministry said on Sunday.
Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Russia had carried out strikes against Ukraine's military infrastructure on Saturday night and Sunday morning. "Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from the waters of the Black Sea against the Nizhyn plant that repairs Ukrainian armoured vehicles damaged in fighting," he said.
Russia fired Kalibr cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea and hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles from airspace of Crimea, the peninsula Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, to destroy a fuel storage facility used by the Ukrainian military, Konashenkov said. Russia also hit a Ukrainian military preparation centre where foreign fighters joining Kyiv's forces were based."
So, Putin has decided that if he can't have it, he'll destroy it... He seems to fire every missile in his arsenal indiscriminately at Ukranian cities. Fortunately nothing chemical, biological or nuclear.
Putin is pulling another Stalin trick: there are reports of forced deportations of civilians from Mariupol to remote areas in Russia.
Mariupol residents are being forced to go to Russia, city council says (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/19/europe/mariupol-shelter-commander-ukraine-intl/index.html)
Quote from: Que on March 20, 2022, 01:42:44 AM
So, Putin has decided that if he can't have it, he'll destroy it... He seems to fire every missile in his arsenal indiscriminately at Ukranian cities. Fortunately nothing chemical, biological or nuclear.
Yet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUgKTfe-IqA&ab_channel=UnHerd
The truth about Neo-Nazis in Ukraine
(Appears to be balanced, worth hearing.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu19_rlwHgY
A Contrarian View on Ukraine/Russia, Samo Burja
(Lots of food for thought in this one.)
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 03:17:00 PM
So then what does "pay, heavily" for wearing suits mean?
Thousands in Russia have already been imprisoned for lower profile protests — use your imagination,
if applicable.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 20, 2022, 04:33:40 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUgKTfe-IqA&ab_channel=UnHerd
The truth about Neo-Nazis in Ukraine
(Appears to be balanced, worth hearing.)
As so often, when something "appears to be balanced" it's really pretty right wing.
Just google unherd and its ramifications.
Quote from: LKB on March 19, 2022, 05:50:29 PM
Fine, I'll play along.
Considering the current Russian intolerance of even suggestions of dissent, and an established disciplinary structure for cosmonauts who " misbehave ", they might see changes in career paths, salary forfeiture, a sudden inability to contact family in the ground... any number of actions could be taken, and there's no reason to assume the actions would be public.
So, you do not know.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 20, 2022, 04:39:21 AM
Thousands in Russia have already been imprisoned for lower profile protests — use your imagination, if applicable.
And you do not know, either.
A lot of people do rely on their imaginations. What they imagine may or may not happen. Verifiable facts are superior to internet imaginings.
Quote from: Que on March 20, 2022, 01:42:44 AM
News this morning:
Russia strikes Ukraine with cruise missiles from two seas
"March 20 (Reuters) - Russia struck Ukraine with cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea,and launched hypersonic missiles from Crimean airspace, the Russian defence ministry said on Sunday.
Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Russia had carried out strikes against Ukraine's military infrastructure on Saturday night and Sunday morning. "Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from the waters of the Black Sea against the Nizhyn plant that repairs Ukrainian armoured vehicles damaged in fighting," he said.
Russia fired Kalibr cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea and hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles from airspace of Crimea, the peninsula Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, to destroy a fuel storage facility used by the Ukrainian military, Konashenkov said. Russia also hit a Ukrainian military preparation centre where foreign fighters joining Kyiv's forces were based."
So, Putin has decided that if he can't have it, he'll destroy it... He seems to fire every missile in his arsenal indiscriminately at Ukranian cities. Fortunately nothing chemical, biological or nuclear.
This type of brutality is not uncommon in European wars. Why should the world be surprised?
Quote from: Herman on March 20, 2022, 06:10:19 AM
As so often, when something "appears to be balanced" it's really pretty right wing.
Just google unherd and its ramifications.
Yes I know what unherd is. And I repeat, this appears to be well balanced.
Quote from: Todd on March 20, 2022, 07:12:52 AM
This type of brutality is not uncommon in European wars. Why should the world be surprised?
To our eternal disgrace, though I would decline calling the current aggresor an European nation. But we had the Balkan war with many atrocities before, so there's that indeed.
Were the wars that US has waged, supported or instigated any different?
Quote from: Todd on March 20, 2022, 07:12:52 AMThis type of brutality is not uncommon in European wars.
Uncommon or not, this type of brutality we see in Ukraine should not happen
anywhere. By now mankind should have learned from history, but it never learns so here we are. This is a planet of greedy assholes in power causing insane suffering to millions of innocent people. I have been naive, but I have finally realised what an ugly stupid planet this is. So undeveloped morally despite of (because of?) all technological achievements... :-\
Quote from: Que on March 20, 2022, 07:45:57 AMTo our eternal disgrace, though I would decline calling the current aggresor an European nation.
I disagree here; Russia has been in the mix of European culture and wars for centuries and has been the prize for fellow European nations a few times. And if one would call the former Yugoslavia European, it would only follow that the largest Slavic state is also European. It is far too convenient to claim Russia is not European.
Quote from: Que on March 20, 2022, 07:45:57 AMWere the wars that US has waged, supported or instigated any different?
Heavens no. The US has murdered more innocent people than any other single nation state in the post-war era.* It then blatantly lies about it. All the time. Every war. Even when there is not a war. The most perverse of those lies are the legalistic lies. Take Raqqa (https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/syria-us-led-coalitions-bombardment-raqqa-killed-more-1600-civilians-new-findings). The US and its allies destroyed it. But Americans created grotesque legal fictions for support, so that American leaders may say that strict legal protocols were followed. Then we can say look how bad other countries behave. Like Russia. Russia destroyed Aleppo illegally. Therefore, Russia bad, America good.
Then there are the now
decades of drone strikes, carried out under purportedly rigorous legal protocols. At one point, the process involved the sitting US President making final decisions on targets personally. To hide civilians inconveniently killed during these strikes, the US created fictitious labels like "enemy combatants" that have been assiduously and readily adopted by every administration since the terms were established.
Then there is the case of Libya, where the US President brazenly violated the War Powers Resolution and aided in the "allied" effort to literally destroy a country – which also resulted in its leader being murdered in the street. At least the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq enjoyed Congressional blessing in the form of AUMFs. The hundreds of thousands of dead civilians and their families probably don't really care much about American legal niceties.
And there is of course Vietnam, and various clandestine efforts all over the world. Every US administration in the post-war era has committed war crimes and violated international law; every US President after FDR could have or should stand trial under international law, if those laws were to be applied equally and effectively. No US President will have to face such an indignity, though.
* There is the troubling and difficult case of the Congo, starting in the 90s. It is generally considered to be the greatest anthropogenic disaster of the post-war era, far worse than what will happen in Ukraine unless nuclear weapons are used, and likely even then, but it does not follow a state-on-state war model, nor does it follow a civil war model. But since it is in Africa, nobody in The West actually cares. Compare the unyielding press coverage all across The West today to coverage of the Congo crises. Now, as some members of the press have embarrassingly but honestly stated in recent news coverage, Ukrainians are white, but that cannot possibly have anything to do with it, no way. Right?
Quote from: 71 dB on March 20, 2022, 08:17:23 AM
Uncommon or not, this type of brutality we see in Ukraine should not happen anywhere. By now mankind should have learned from history, but it never learns so here we are. This is a planet of greedy assholes in power causing insane suffering to millions of innocent people.
Pretty much all true.
Quote from: Todd on March 20, 2022, 07:12:52 AM
And you do not know, either.
I've seen videos of people dragged out of Red Square for holding signs or even blank pieces of paper and put into vans. No doubt they were taking them out to lunch.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 20, 2022, 08:38:04 AM
I've seen videos of people dragged out of Red Square for holding signs or even blank pieces of paper and put into vans. No doubt they were taking them out to lunch.
And that applies to the case of the cosmonauts how?
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 20, 2022, 08:38:04 AM
I've seen videos of people dragged out of Red Square for holding signs or even blank pieces of paper and put into vans. No doubt they were taking them out to lunch.
I read a story about a young woman who was arrested just for
taking a moment to read some of the signs.Quote from: Todd on March 20, 2022, 08:39:51 AM
And that applies to the case of the cosmonauts how?
I thought that it was great that the astronauts suits were blue and yellow. :)
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 20, 2022, 08:59:47 AM
I read a story about a young woman who was arrested just for taking a moment to read some of the signs.
I thought that it was great that the astronauts suits were blue and yellow. :)
PD
Also, one woman got punished for wearing a small hat, that was both blue and yellow, on a public square.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 20, 2022, 09:11:50 AM
Also, one woman got punished for wearing a small hat, that was both blue and yellow, on a public square.
A Swede?
Quote from: The new erato on March 20, 2022, 09:14:55 AM
A Swede?
I guess she couldn't claim to be a Swede ... but then, under the current circumstances, Swedes & Westerners generally are dubious too, by definition ...
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 20, 2022, 09:11:50 AM
Also, one woman got punished for wearing a small hat, that was both blue and yellow, on a public square.
Good God!
PD
Source:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/17/russian-woman-fined-for-wearing-blue-and-yellow-hat-a76980
"... the accused woman "displayed items of clothing and a badge painted in the colors of the flag of the Republic of Ukraine in a public place, expressing a clearly negative attitude towards the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and attracting the attention of the media and bloggers."
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 20, 2022, 09:31:08 AM
Source:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/17/russian-woman-fined-for-wearing-blue-and-yellow-hat-a76980
"... the accused woman "displayed items of clothing and a badge painted in the colors of the flag of the Republic of Ukraine in a public place, expressing a clearly negative attitude towards the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and attracting the attention of the media and bloggers."
It may be true, it may be propaganda.
The Moscow Times is considered a reliable newspaper. The article mentions an organization supplying legal help involved.
As regards the women with blank papers (or an inscription saying "Two Words") getting arrested, there's video evidence of those incidents.
Another case:
"So what I did was I got two Harry Potter books. One is from Hufflepuff, which is yellow, and another one from Ravenclaw, which is blue. So the yellow and blue editions. And I was just reading those two books at Pushkin Square. So it looked like the Ukrainian flag. ... So for about an hour, the police did not know what to do with me because it was quite unusual. But then yeah, they decided to just take me to the police station ... It's not an arrest. It's a detainment. So they let me go the same evening, so I did not stay the night at the police station. So now I'm facing some fine, something like that. So I'm waiting for my hearing.."
Source, with picture: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084627201/one-russian-anti-war-protester-on-why-shes-risking-arrest-to-speak-out
Quote from: 71 dB on March 20, 2022, 08:17:23 AM
Uncommon or not, this type of brutality we see in Ukraine should not happen anywhere. By now mankind should have learned from history, but it never learns so here we are. This is a planet of greedy assholes in power causing insane suffering to millions of innocent people. I have been naive, but I have finally realised what an ugly stupid planet this is. So undeveloped morally despite of (because of?) all technological achievements... :-\
This is entirely due to
1) psychopathy being a recurring genetic condition that humanity is unable to get rid of
2) psychopaths using fear to control others, and inability to be controlled since they lack fear themselves
3) people unwilling to challenge them and submitting to their fear, thus giving up their own power
(Putin being the example in this case)
This pattern will continue until the end of humanity. We can learn about history as much as we want, but it will never end unless we can detect them and know how to deal with them.
Quote from: Todd on March 20, 2022, 08:39:51 AM
And that applies to the case of the cosmonauts how?
It shows that Russian citizens are now routinely detained or arrested for protests far more tame and less public than what the cosmonauts did. The implication is that having to ask about the heavy consequences a cosmonaut might suffer for such a public protest is either stupid or disingenuous (trolling).
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 20, 2022, 02:08:34 PM
It shows that Russian citizens are now routinely detained or arrested for protests far more tame and less public than what the cosmonauts did. The implication is that having to ask about the heavy consequences a cosmonaut might suffer for such a public protest is either stupid or disingenuous (trolling).
So, again, you do not know what will happen. You only imagine you do.
Quote from: Todd on March 20, 2022, 07:12:52 AM
So, you do not know.
No, l do not
know. If l knew, it would likely mean that l was working with Roscosmos, something which is ( thankfully ) not the case.
But l
do know that my given examples are neither implausible nor unreasonable. The offering of such relevant possibilities in the course of a conversation is what most adults refer to as, " normal ".
Quote from: LKB on March 20, 2022, 03:18:02 PM
No, l do not know. If l knew, it would likely mean that l was working with Roscosmos, something which is ( thankfully ) not the case.
But l do know that my given examples are neither implausible nor unreasonable. The offering of such relevant possibilities in the course of a conversation is what most adults refer to as, " normal ".
Offering relevant possibilities is rather different than bold declarations of paying heavy prices. Maybe the cosmonauts pay a heavy price, maybe they do not. I imagine a range of outcomes is possible.
The significance of the Cosmonauts is that dissent is broadly based. The cumulative case is that educated Russians in urban centers see their future being stolen from them.
Are these guys military?
Quote from: Todd on March 20, 2022, 03:23:37 PM
Offering relevant possibilities is rather different than bold declarations of paying heavy prices. Maybe the cosmonauts pay a heavy price, maybe they do not. I imagine a range of outcomes is possible.
In ignoring my qualifiers, you're a) being disingenuous and b) amplifying your own trollish reputation. Either way l remain unaffected, so feel free to carry on.
Quote from: LKB on March 20, 2022, 04:15:33 PMEither way l remain unaffected, so feel free to carry on.
Admirable equanimity.
Zelensky frequently states that he wants to meet Putin and negotiate for an immediate end to the war. He keeps saying it over and over. This makes me think that Zelensky may not be interested in any compromise actually and preparing for a long-term, guerrilla warfare. Just a thought.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on March 20, 2022, 06:24:11 PM
Zelensky frequently states that he wants to meet Putin and negotiate for an immediate end to the war. He keeps saying it over and over. This makes me think that Zelensky may not be interested in any compromise actually and preparing for a long-term, guerrilla warfare. Just a thought.
It's not a lack of interest, it's realism. Zelensky must say what he says, and do what he does. Ukraine can't accept what Russia will offer until Russia is willing to accept defeat.
Quote from: drogulus on March 20, 2022, 06:37:49 PM
Ukraine can't accept what Russia will offer until Russia is willing to accept defeat.
I agree. Now Putin hasn't been able to achieve his goals on the battle field, he wants them handed down on a silver platter at the negotiating table.
A part of the story is though that the Russian wars tend to start with defeats, but then their army quantity takes over. If the will is there, that is.
Some think that the logistics problem will result in the Russians running completely short of essential stuff within 2-6 weeks though. For example, their trucks seem to have had no maintenance or professional staff, so they basically fail and are then being left. And they can only go on roads, because they are fragile - and then they are 'sitting ducks'. Meaning that delivery of provisions will stop.
Specialized threads on their truck logistics
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1505370275273183239
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944
Quote from: drogulus on March 19, 2022, 10:02:38 AM
It would be good to fight elsewhere than the US. I'd pay a lot for that. The question is, are we paying really a lot for value received? In my estimation the answer is no. The proportion of GDP for military expenditure isn't very high.
(https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/include/usgs_chart2p31.png)
I would spend more to acquire more advanced planes and missiles. Chinese missiles are pretty good and we need something to handle Chinese SAMs. That way we might not have to use the less good ones we have now.
Drones are the future. Bayraktar, the Turkish company that sold drones to Ukraine and 15 other countries, have just announced that they are working on complete fighter planes without pilots, with a weight of 5 tonnes, a speed of 800 km/h, the first flights taking place next year. It's being planned that their aircraft carrier will have 80 of them, and that their F-35 order might be cancelled somehow, because of this.
(in German: https://www.golem.de/news/auf-dem-weg-zur-seemacht-tuerkei-will-neuen-flugzeugtraeger-mit-drohnen-ausruesten-2203-163973.html
Although many people --- I'm not talking about anyone here --- probably believe that the thousands arrested in Russia for protesting againts the war and the regime are rotting in sinister dungeons, the truth is they are released a few hours after, or the next day. And honestly, the videos show that the Russian police generally acts with less brutality than the Western police forces which acted against anti-restriction protesters last autumn by setting dogs on them and beating them until they dropped in the streets.
Go ahead, call me a Putinist. ;D
One aspect is - I don't see any violence attempts among the Russian protesters. And the fees are big, for Russian incomes. Plus you risk your job, or your studying.
Quote from: Que on March 21, 2022, 12:42:11 AM
I agree. Now Putin hasn't been able to achieve his goals on the battle field, he wants them handed down on a silver platter at the negotiating table.
I doubt this is a scenario. Also because Uke isn't going to accept defeat either.
This negotiating is just a side show.
The Aleppo / Grozny secenario is more likely.
Pute's going to pound the cities to rubble. He'll announce victory as the last man standing.
Nor am I sure he would balk at a nuclear confrontation.
Just eliminate all the little guys and start all over.
It's an idea that has been buzzing around for a couple of years already.
Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2022, 02:20:15 AM
Although many people --- I'm not talking about anyone here --- probably believe that the thousands arrested in Russia for protesting againts the war and the regime are rotting in sinister dungeons, the truth is they are released a few hours after, or the next day. And honestly, the videos show that the Russian police generally acts with less brutality than the Western police forces which acted against anti-restriction protesters last autumn by setting dogs on them and beating them until they dropped in the streets.
Go ahead, call me a Putinist. ;D
That's good to hear.
I also hear that there's many Russians leaving to places like Georgia, due to stuff like this, and for the most part, due to sanctions.
So it seems like they can be considered refugees- seems odd that in this case there would be refugees from a country which is being an aggressor in a war. I haven't heard about that scenario before, but I'm no war expert, perhaps that has happened many times before, just not with wars I'm familiar with.
Being politically persecuted is one of the critetia for refugee status, but normally you'll have to verify circumstances for it.
Perhaps some of those going to Georgia have social networks and expect to just mingle in. Obviously, there are also strong anti-Russian/Putin feelings in Georgia.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 21, 2022, 02:22:09 AM
One aspect is - I don't see any violence attempts among the Russian protesters. And the fees are big, for Russian incomes. Plus you risk your job, or your studying.
I'm not saying it's okay, just that arresting / brutalizing / fining people for being in manifest disagreement with government's policies is not exclusive to Russia, which is a dictatorship. Western democracies practice it as well.
It has been seen, but mostly to a much lesser extent. The Catalonian separatists and some corona + yellow vests incidents are among the recent examples. My impression is that there were often violent demonstrators among them.
Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2022, 02:20:15 AM
Although many people --- I'm not talking about anyone here --- probably believe that the thousands arrested in Russia for protesting againts the war and the regime are rotting in sinister dungeons, the truth is they are released a few hours after, or the next day. And honestly, the videos show that the Russian police generally acts with less brutality than the Western police forces which acted against anti-restriction protesters last autumn by setting dogs on them and beating them until they dropped in the streets.
This calls into question the veracity of some Western press reporting, and maybe even exposes bias in said organizations. That cannot be.
Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2022, 05:59:56 AM
I'm not saying it's okay, just that arresting / brutalizing / fining people for being in manifest disagreement with government's policies is not exclusive to Russia, which is a dictatorship. Western democracies practice it as well.
Who has time for facts?
Western reporters are constantly calling into question the veracity of Western reports, which is how we know about them. I like that.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 21, 2022, 06:33:34 AM
I see the political divide as more "collectivist vs individualist" myself.
That's a problem for people trying to figure out whether public policy is good or bad. Medicare for me is sufficiently individual, for thee is collectivist. The principle is enshrined in the motto "Keep your dirty Big Government hands off my Social Security!".
Ukraine's Drones Are Wreaking Havoc On The Russian Army (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/21/ukraines-drones-are-wreaking-havoc-on-the-russian-army/?utm_campaign=forbes&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Valerie&sh=9e3f2b918b6c)
At least one Turkish arms manufacturer is having a good war. Should bode well for peace in other countries in the coming years.
Quote from: Yabetz on March 21, 2022, 07:03:47 AM
That's not really always true, in the broader picture. More often than not US mainstream reporters anyway are overtaken by facts pointed out by some third party. It has happened so often that the public trust in US mainstream media is at an all-time low. They're more despised than Congress. They're seen as activists with cameras and by-lines, not disinterested purveyors of information.
That's more of a caricature though. People who have been paying into Social Security for decades on the assumption that they would get some sort of return could have every right to say that. It doesn't mean Social Security is a shining example of "individualism" (and it would take some impressive mental gymnastics to claim that it is). Anyway to call a more or less libertarian view "far right" (as I've heard it and various other less-than-leftish ideas called) could be true only if everything to the right of Mao is "far right".
I don't care what Social Security is a shining example of. The individual vs collectivist notions serve to convert pragmatic decisions into spurious quarrels about high principle. Note the quarrels are not designed to be decided. That's why terms like individual and collective are used. There's nothing much to decide about that stuff.
Great fortunes will be made rebuilding Ukraine. It's probably not the reason Putin invaded, though.
And so a topic entitled "Europe at War" veers off into the standard yawn-inducing discussion of American libertarianism.
Quote from: Herman on March 21, 2022, 08:50:58 AM
And so a topic entitled "Europe at War" veers off into the standard yawn-inducing discussion of American libertarianism.
Color me surprised. NOT.
Quote from: Herman on March 21, 2022, 08:50:58 AM
And so a topic entitled "Europe at War" veers off into the standard yawn-inducing discussion of American libertarianism.
;D
Quote from: Que on March 19, 2022, 04:40:49 AM
the main topic here is not US politics. [...] Any possible further discussion on the US specifically, should be on the US politics thread.
Hear, hear!
Quote from: Herman on March 21, 2022, 08:50:58 AM
And so a topic entitled "Europe at War" veers off into the standard yawn-inducing discussion of American libertarianism.
Well, I'm fixin' to start deleting shit pretty soon, so the 'veer' better come pretty quick. $:)
>:( 8)
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 21, 2022, 05:59:00 AM
Perhaps some of those going to Georgia have social networks and expect to just mingle in. Obviously, there are also strong anti-Russian/Putin feelings in Georgia.
A Russian in Tibilisi noted the anti-Russian feelings but says the most immediate cause of friction is the rising rental costs in the capital.
Factbox: Who is still buying Russian crude oil (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/who-is-still-buying-russian-crude-oil-2022-03-21/)
Quote from: ReutersGermany, the EU's top Russian crude buyer, and the Netherlands, a trading hub, have warned against hasty decisions that could raise energy prices further and leave some refineries idle.
An apparent leak from the Russian ministry of defense tells of 9861 Russian fatalities, and almost 16200 wounded. In one month. Now quoted more widely, including by Komsolmolskaya Pravda. Still not 100% sure though, and the leaked info has now been hidden. It is a very high number, and higher than the US estimate.
EDIT: there are now claims of hacking, as regards those numbers.
Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2022, 10:22:07 AM
A Russian in Tibilisi noted the anti-Russian feelings but says the most immediate cause of friction is the rising rental costs in the capital.
Yeah, would be surprised if you had the same source, but hearing that, too.
So this was making the rounds today:
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-elite-want-putin-out-successor-mind-ukraine-intel-chief-1689830
I'm dubious, but even if it's bunk the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by exploiting the obvious premise.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 21, 2022, 11:28:11 AM
An apparent leak from the Russian ministry of defense tells of 9861 Russian fatalities, and almost 16200 wounded. In one month. Now quoted more widely, including by Komsolmolskaya Pravda. Still not 100% sure though, and the leaked info has now been hidden. It is a very high number, and higher than the US estimate.
EDIT: there are now claims of hacking, as regards those numbers.
I think the numbers may be correct, but that this was never intended for publishing. Not too far off western estimates of 7000 dead and 20.000 wounded a few days ago, but still far below Ukrainian claims.
A glitch, or maybe an intended leak by somebody in the organization (some of whom will know the true story behind the war), in which case a claim of hacking is perfectly logical. Journalists and the security services
know, and there have been a number of leaks, and quite a number of persons also resigning in disgust over the lies they are required to dissipate.
However, the misconception may be that Pute cares about these numbers; or even about them getting limited whispering circulation in Russia.
If you look at the regular mortality numbers, the median age of death for Russian men, it's not like anyone in the Kremlin leadership gives a d*mn.
All the men around Pute are hugely rich thanks to him, so they are not going to do away with him. They want to get richer yet.
These stories that Pute's days are numbered are (perhaps) just wishful thinking in the West, and, in a way, our form of propaganda.
Of course he doesn't care. But close to a third of his operational forces comitted to Ukraine being out of operation will have a significant impact. And the fact that wounded soldiers are returning, and that a significant numer are MIA can no be hid.
Quote from: The new erato on March 22, 2022, 12:11:41 AM
I think the numbers may be correct, but that this was never intended for publishing. Not too far off western estimates of 7000 dead and 20.000 wounded a few days ago, but still far below Ukrainian claims.
A glitch, or maybe an intended leak by somebody in the organization (some of whom will know the true story behind the war), in which case a claim of hacking is perfectly logical. Journalists and the security services know, and there have been a number of leaks, and quite a number of persons also resigning in disgust over the lies they are required to dissipate.
Two other, now erased sections in the K-P article both had correct information (about a dead navy commander and an attack at a factory). Still, perhaps nobody knows the precise numbers, and estimates are no doubt secret.
Quote from: The new erato on March 22, 2022, 12:49:56 AM
Of course he doesn't care. But close to a third of his operational forces comitted to Ukraine being out of operation will have a significant impact. And the fact that wounded soldiers are returning, and that a significant numer are MIA can no be hid.
Well, it's fifteen years in the slammer if you publicly say the 'military operation' was no good. So most people will just shut up.
The war of occupation is not going well, indeed. So Pute's is just going to bomb the cities to rubble instead.
Quote from: LKB on March 21, 2022, 07:39:20 PM
So this was making the rounds today:
https://www.newsweek.com/russias-elite-want-putin-out-successor-mind-ukraine-intel-chief-1689830
I'm dubious, but even if it's bunk the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by exploiting the obvious premise.
If this comes from a Ukrainian govt source, as the article claims, why would they mention the name of the potential successor? To make sure that Putin eliminates him, is my guess... Though there might be plans to get rid of Putin, this seems to be to designed to feed Putin's paranoia and disrupt the Kremlin.
We've had the truth about neo-Nazis in Ukraine.
For balance, I offer you the truth about neo-Nazis in Russia.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-22/putins-fascists-russias-home-grown-neo-nazis/100927582
Quote from: Yabetz on March 21, 2022, 07:03:47 AM
That's more of a caricature though.
You're demonstrating your expertise in the area at times.
Samara has the most number of ethnic-Russian refugees from Ukraine - some 7,000 now - and there is friction with the locals developing. Foodstuffs are becoming scarce to the point of shoving matches in the lines.
I've advised my friends there to leave - head east - although Rostov is much more likely to be a target, these new missiles being sent to Ukraine from the West do have the range to hit Volga targets. Considering the casual disregard for committing war crimes by Putin, I don't think Ukraine is going to be that worried what they target in Russia, as long as they inflict some payback.
Rostov has been a military base for the Donbass invasion logistics sine 2014, also the MH17 Buk missile. But to attack Russia with missiles would be an escalation with very far-reaching consequences, including possibly WMD against Ukraine (or maybe a hope for a later NATO interference).
Quote from: Que on March 22, 2022, 01:42:37 AMIf this comes from a Ukrainian govt source, as the article claims
Information warfare.
EU may discuss more borrowing option in a few weeks, Gentiloni says (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-may-discuss-more-borrowing-option-few-weeks-gentiloni-2022-03-22/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=global-investor&utm_term=Reuters%20Global%20Investor%20-%202021%20-%20Master%20List)
Quote from: Jan StrupczewskiGermany, the Netherlands, Austria and other countries oppose such new borrowing now, arguing that the economic impact of the war in Ukraine is still unclear and that out of the 800 billion recovery fund only 74 billion euros has been disbursed so far.
Europe's Hamiltonian moment could be arriving a few centuries later than for the Yanks, but it sure seems that Germany and the Netherlands seem quite comfortable with the status quo, wanting to limit centralized borrowing and wanting to buy oil from Russia.
Why Can't the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning? (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/)
Most commentators have taken too narrow a view of this conflict, presenting it as solely between Russia and Ukraine. Like most wars, though, it is being waged by two coalitions, fought primarily though not exclusively by Russian and Ukrainian nationals. The Russians have some Chechen auxiliaries who have yet to demonstrate much effectiveness (and who lost their commander early on), may get some Syrians (who will be even less able to integrate with Russian units), and find a half-hearted ally in Belarus, whose citizens have begun sabotaging its rail lines and whose army may well mutiny if asked to invade Ukraine.
The Ukrainians have their auxiliaries, too, some 15,000 or so foreign volunteers, some probably worthless or dangerous to their allies, but others valuable—snipers, combat medics, and other specialists who have fought in Western armies. More important, they have behind them the military industries of countries including the United States, Sweden, Turkey, and the Czech Republic. Flowing into Ukraine every day are thousands of advanced weapons: the best anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles in the world, plus drones, sniper rifles, and all the kit of war. Moreover, it should be noted that the United States has had exquisite intelligence not only about Russia's dispositions but about its intentions and actual operations. The members of the U.S. intelligence community would be fools not to share this information, including real-time intelligence, with the Ukrainians. Judging by the adroitness of Ukrainian air defenses and deployments, one may suppose that they are not, in fact, fools.
Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2022, 08:31:20 AM
Why Can't the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning? (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/)
it's not over till it's over.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 22, 2022, 04:28:09 AM
... to attack Russia with missiles would be an escalation with very far-reaching consequences, including possibly WMD against Ukraine (or maybe a hope for a later NATO interference).
Ukraine has already launched missile attacks against Russia - some over 2 weeks ago - Rostov being the major target.
Quote from: Scion7 on March 22, 2022, 09:06:44 AM
Ukraine has already launched missile attacks against Russia - some over 2 weeks ago - Rostov being the major target.
Correct, I forgot. Seems to be a limited attack though, against an air base (Millerovo), not a city, and apparently one missile.
Quote from: Scion7 on March 22, 2022, 09:06:44 AM
Ukraine has already launched missile attacks against Russia - some over 2 weeks ago - Rostov being the major target.
I didn't know that! Do we know what they were aiming for? Are there a lot of Russian troops or supplies there? And were there any civilian casualties?
PD
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 22, 2022, 09:10:08 AM
Correct, I forgot. Seems to be a limited attack though, against an air base (Millerovo), not a city, and apparently one missile.
One missile?? Nope. And with any attack using old Soviet era weapons, some went astray and hit the city/civilian areas.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 22, 2022, 09:10:08 AM
Correct, I forgot. Seems to be a limited attack though, against an air base (Millerovo), not a city, and apparently one missile.
Ah, thanks for the info. Was there much damage done to the base?
PD
Quote from: Herman on March 22, 2022, 08:52:59 AM
it's not over till it's over.
Yes, "winning" is not the same as "won". The best we can say is "winning" precedes "won" more often than it does "lost". If Putin is unwilling or unable to substantially increase pressure on the Ukrainian defense the Russian effort is doomed, because time and a war of attrition heavily favors a defender being continually resupplied with highly effective weaponry from highly motivated allies.
Both sides are loosing.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2022, 09:14:13 AM
Ah, thanks for the info. Was there much damage done to the base?
PD
Maybe a couple of airplanes destroyed. Wiki already has an article ... the whole thing is not very clear ... some people were wounded, though.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 22, 2022, 09:41:10 AM
Both sides are loosing.
I'm not so sure Russia's losing! It's not their best case scenario obviously, but they're dealing with the resistance the Ukrainians are offering - no doubt they're incurring casualties, losing equipment, but I don't think any of us can say how great their losses are, and anyway, casualties are to be expected in war.
Quote from: Scion7 on March 22, 2022, 09:13:27 AM
One missile?? Nope. And with any attack using old Soviet era weapons, some went astray and hit the city/civilian areas.
Only checked the Wiki today. There were more sources back then. The Russians are interested in showing terror against civilians.
You seem to be right about the possibility of more missiles. Some think of other weapons.
It is 20 km from the border.
Quote from: Herman on March 22, 2022, 12:37:33 AM
However, the misconception may be that Pute cares about these numbers; or even about them getting limited whispering circulation in Russia.
If you look at the regular mortality numbers, the median age of death for Russian men, it's not like anyone in the Kremlin leadership gives a d*mn.
All the men around Pute are hugely rich thanks to him, so they are not going to do away with him. They want to get richer yet.
These stories that Pute's days are numbered are (perhaps) just wishful thinking in the West, and, in a way, our form of propaganda.
Part of the point of individualized sanctions is to impede the ability of the elite to access/increase their riches, and get them into a frame of mind that sees Putin's continued control as a danger to their riches--and getting rid of Putin as a necessary measure for accessing/increasing their riches.
Quote from: JBS on March 22, 2022, 09:46:45 AM
Part of the point of individualized sanctions is to impede the ability of the elite to access/increase their riches, and get them into a frame of mind that sees Putin's continued control as a danger to their riches--and getting rid of Putin as a necessary measure for accessing/increasing their riches.
Agreed.
Earlier today I was reading an article on CNN's website questioning what the likelihood is that Belorussia will get involved in the fight (further than their current abetting). Has anyone here heard much more about the likelihood of this?
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2022, 09:57:27 AM
Agreed.
Earlier today I was reading an article on CNN's website questioning what the likelihood is that Belorussia will get involved in the fight (further than their current abetting). Has anyone here heard much more about the likelihood of this?
PD
It has been going back and forth all the time with the probability. But there's agreement that the morale among Belarus soldiers would be very low.
There are quite a lot of stories about the Russians not being able to use any railroads from Belarus into Ukraine, because Belarus railroad staff are discreetly sabotaging the systems.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 22, 2022, 09:41:10 AM
Both sides are loosing.
Both sides are losing a great deal, but one side is losing the war. Russia can't adequately reinforce or resupply its troops, so they are being ground down. Time favors Ukraine, as it is continually being resupplied with everything it needs to fight successfully, even if it's not being supplied with everything it wants.
Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2022, 10:29:25 AM
Both sides are losing a great deal, but one side is losing the war. Russia can't adequately reinforce or resupply its troops, so they are being ground down. Time favors Ukraine, as it is continually being resupplied with everything it needs to fight successfully, even if it's not being supplied with everything it wants.
Wishful thinking
Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2022, 10:32:11 AM
Wishful thinking
That's what I'm thinking. We're reading the desired outcome in the little info we get.
It's true Pute's losing the ground war, but he'll just up the bombing ante till there's nothing left.
He knows he's toast if Ukraine can claim to have beaten him. So it's all of nothing for Pute.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2022, 10:32:11 AM
Wishful thinking
It doesn't matter what I wish. There are conflicting estimates for how long Russia can continue to fight. Russia could be catastrophically depleted quickly or slowly, depending on a number of factors. If Russia just wants to maintain its front lines they can hold on longer than if they commit to large scale offensive operations to take more territory. The Ukrainian counterattack is proceeding slowly because Ukraine doesn't have a large enough army to take advantage of the defensive success, and the civilian forces are not offensive in nature. So, the tide slowly turns, until perhaps at some point it quickly turns.
Quote from: Herman on March 22, 2022, 10:56:39 AM
It's true Pute's losing the ground war, but he'll just up the bombing ante till there's nothing left.
He will, and it won't work. The entire west of Ukraine is a sanctuary for the Uke armed forces from which to stage attacks on the dwindling Russian forces. But I don't think it will come to that, because the Russians haven't even managed to take Kharkiv, which is right next to Russia itself.
Hopefully you're right.
The Russians haven't really tried to take any cities outside the southeast fronts. Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, etc, have been besieged and they fire enough missiles/artillery shells to keep the defenders' heads down, but there's been no evidence of Russian forces actually entering any of those cities except for the odd special forces brigade. Mariupol is an example of them actually trying to take a city and they've turned it into Groznyy: half the city has been bombed into pieces, the other half is on fire, and Russian forces have supposedly "evacuated" 60,000 civilians to Rostov and Donetsk (whether they had any choice in the matter is of course highly unclear). They evidently have the capacity to do the same to any other city in the country, and this will probably also happen to the remaining major Donbas towns (Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, etc). But obviously if they keep destroying cities they lose any potential leverage in peace talks: hard to say "give us a military base in Odessa [or whatever] or we'll destroy the city" when you've already destroyed the city.
I do think the territorial encroachment phase of the war is almost entirely over and what's left now is jockeying for positions. I don't foresee significant Russian advances and don't expect any major Ukrainian reversals; they're aware Russia's weak point is its supply lines and logistics, and are presumably focusing on cutting those rather than trying to hit the Russians on the front lines where they're strongest.
I don't really think it makes sense to talk about losing or winning a war in this context. In an offensive war the invader doesn't have win or loss conditions so much as objectives, and the question is how many of those objectives can be achieved—and since Russia has already achieved some of its objectives, it hasn't "lost"; it just hasn't gained quite as much as it was hoping to. But in almost every aggressive war the invader will have at least one objective that they achieved, and can therefore treat as a "victory", unless the defender can keep them from crossing the border in the first place.
Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2022, 10:29:25 AM
Both sides are losing a great deal, but one side is losing the war. Russia can't adequately reinforce or resupply its troops, so they are being ground down. Time favors Ukraine, as it is continually being resupplied with everything it needs to fight successfully, even if it's not being supplied with everything it wants.
It is not being resupplied with replacements for destroyed apartment blocks, shopping malls, hospitals, schools, airports, universities, and slaughtered human beings.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 22, 2022, 11:38:37 AM
It is not being resupplied with replacements for destroyed apartment blocks, shopping malls, hospitals, schools, airports, universities, and slaughtered human beings.
Also this. I doubt any of the Western countries selflessly donating Javelins and Bayraktars right now are, in a few weeks, going to be supplying Ukraine with new infrastructure and healthcare workers for the injured/traumatised and so on. At best they'll have the IMF offer some low-interest loans with only a few minor preconditions, and at worst Joe Biden will retweet Zelensky's gofundme with a "please donate" caption.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 22, 2022, 11:38:37 AM
It is not being resupplied with replacements for destroyed apartment blocks, shopping malls, hospitals, schools, airports, universities, and slaughtered human beings.
I didn't talk about that.
Quote from: amw on March 22, 2022, 11:47:50 AM
Also this. I doubt any of the Western countries selflessly donating Javelins and Bayraktars right now are, in a few weeks, going to be supplying Ukraine with new infrastructure and healthcare workers for the injured/traumatised and so on. At best they'll have the IMF offer some low-interest loans with only a few minor preconditions, and at worst Joe Biden will retweet Zelensky's gofundme with a "please donate" caption.
Whatever help is rendered won't be enough.
I don't think anything I said about the Russian defeat is altered by these other considerations.
Quote from: Scion7 on March 22, 2022, 09:13:27 AM
One missile?? Nope. And with any attack using old Soviet era weapons, some went astray and hit the city/civilian areas.
Statements like this are just random speculative assertions.
The exact helping measures are impossible to know now, given the uncertainess after ongoing events. If a part of Ukraine survives as 'Western', with EU prospects, and the situation otherwise remains relatively 'normal', the EU can't afford it being a frustrated wasteland. One of the problems with donations is the amount of corruption in Ukraine; not many years ago it was estimated as 50% of the economy, but things have gotten better (also witnessed by Danish companies working there). However there would have to be some sort of very strict control system. I imagine that in some hidden corners of the EU offices, people are working on possible scenarios right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmXKNzIYHtk&t=856s&ab_channel=UnHerd
Maybe worth hearing.
Quote from: amw on March 22, 2022, 11:34:48 AM
The Russians haven't really tried to take any cities outside the southeast fronts. Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, etc, have been besieged and they fire enough missiles/artillery shells to keep the defenders' heads down, but there's been no evidence of Russian forces actually entering any of those cities except for the odd special forces brigade. Mariupol is an example of them actually trying to take a city and they've turned it into Groznyy: half the city has been bombed into pieces, the other half is on fire, and Russian forces have supposedly "evacuated" 60,000 civilians to Rostov and Donetsk (whether they had any choice in the matter is of course highly unclear). They evidently have the capacity to do the same to any other city in the country, and this will probably also happen to the remaining major Donbas towns (Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, etc). But obviously if they keep destroying cities they lose any potential leverage in peace talks: hard to say "give us a military base in Odessa [or whatever] or we'll destroy the city" when you've already destroyed the city.
I do think the territorial encroachment phase of the war is almost entirely over and what's left now is jockeying for positions. I don't foresee significant Russian advances and don't expect any major Ukrainian reversals; they're aware Russia's weak point is its supply lines and logistics, and are presumably focusing on cutting those rather than trying to hit the Russians on the front lines where they're strongest.
I don't really think it makes sense to talk about losing or winning a war in this context. In an offensive war the invader doesn't have win or loss conditions so much as objectives, and the question is how many of those objectives can be achieved—and since Russia has already achieved some of its objectives, it hasn't "lost"; it just hasn't gained quite as much as it was hoping to. But in almost every aggressive war the invader will have at least one objective that they achieved, and can therefore treat as a "victory", unless the defender can keep them from crossing the border in the first place.
The Russians have tried to take Kyiv since the beginning of the invasion and expected to do it in a matter of a few days. The prime objective was to depose the government in its seat. It's ridiculous to say they haven't tried just because they have as yet so spectacularly failed to achieve their objectives.
They've been hitting Russia's main armored forces for weeks. What war are you following?
"Hasn't gained quite as much as it was hoping to?" Oh please! What an absurd understatement. They've been humiliated.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2022, 12:57:49 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmXKNzIYHtk&t=856s&ab_channel=UnHerd
Maybe worth hearing.
Or maybe not. I went looking for information about this channel that you're fond of. The funniest description was " the kind of people who are generally "unheard" because people edge away from them at parties."
A quick look at the front page of their website threw up several articles about what's wrong with "The Left" and some favourite targets about university education and trans people. The origins as a site privately funded by a conservative backer are pretty apparent.
Mr Roggio is part of an outfit called the Long War Journal, which apparently qualifies as a "neo-con" outlet for some people.
His own credentials are [per Wikipedia]
QuoteRoggio served in the United States Army and the New Jersey National Guard as a signalman and infantryman. He uses his military experience to add strategic, operational, and tactical level context to the journal's reports.
The Toll of Economic War
How Sanctions on Russia Will Upend the Global Order (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-03-22/toll-economic-war?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The%20Toll%20of%20Economic%20War&utm_content=20220322&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
A well written, concise, thoughtful explanation of the impacts - actual and potential - of current and potential new sanctions. The impact to developing countries cannot be dismissed and the self-harming outcomes in high income countries cannot be ignored. The brief summary of sanctions of the 30s also implies that the US and its allies may have ended up severely limiting options that can be used with China in the event the Chinese government does anything The West finds unsavory in the near term future.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 22, 2022, 01:05:00 PM
The Russians have tried to take Kyiv since the beginning of the invasion and expected to do it in a matter of a few days. The prime objective was to depose the government in its seat. It's ridiculous to say they haven't tried just because they have as yet so spectacularly failed to achieve their objectives.
They brought one massive armoured column from Belarus into the Kiev suburbs in the first three days of the war. That column has pretty much held position along an axis stretching roughly from Borodyanka to Brovary—it hasn't advanced, and it hasn't withdrawn. It hasn't attacked Kiev itself (all Russian attacks on the city seem to have been aerial or cruise missile based). From that I do think it's possible to deduce that the entire Kiev-area front line is a feint and Russian forces
do not actually intend to attack from that axis, at least not at present. Similarly, I would categorise Russia's claim that it is enacting regime change in Ukraine as, well, Russian propaganda. I doubt it was ever capable of doing that. (Even the USA would find it hard to depose a foreign leader with a 73 percent approval rating.)
Quote
They've been hitting Russia's main armored forces for weeks. What war are you following?
The one where Ukrainian citizens on social media frequently and independently post about their experiences, e.g., "hiding in a shelter right now in Ivankiv because about a hundred Russian tanks just came through here", which generally acts as a more trustworthy source than either the Ukrainian MFA/allied news outlets ("The Ukrainian military just retook Ivankiv for the seventh time this week! Incidentally, NATO, how's that no-fly zone coming along") or the Russian MFA/allied news outlets ("We have never heard of Ivankiv and there are definitely no Russian troops anywhere near it. Incidentally, if chemical weapons happen to be used later today, we didn't do it")
Objectives the Russians have (objectively) fulfilled include reopening the water pipeline from the Dnipro to Crimea, establishing a land corridor from Crimea to Donetsk and gaining total control of the Sea of Azov. Perhaps they have many more goals as well, but those are the ones that were quickly and efficiently achieved within the first week or so of the war. I don't think one can start saying that they're
losing until those achievements are reversed.
Quote from: amw on March 22, 2022, 02:34:09 PMObjectives the Russians have (objectively) fulfilled include reopening the water pipeline from the Dnipro to Crimea, establishing a land corridor from Crimea to Donetsk and gaining total control of the Sea of Azov. Perhaps they have many more goals as well, but those are the ones that were quickly and efficiently achieved within the first week or so of the war. I don't think one can start saying that they're losing until those achievements are reversed.
Has Russia published a list of their actual objectives and strategy in Ukraine, ranging from best case outcomes to acceptable outcomes? As far as I can tell, press outlets and the internet contain a lot of conjecture, and that's it. I know Jake Sullivan just offered his assessment, but I suspect he is politically biased.
Quote from: Madiel on March 22, 2022, 01:24:22 PM
Or maybe not. I went looking for information about this channel that you're fond of. The funniest description was " the kind of people who are generally "unheard" because people edge away from them at parties."
A quick look at the front page of their website threw up several articles about what's wrong with "The Left" and some favourite targets about university education and trans people. The origins as a site privately funded by a conservative backer are pretty apparent.
Yes, but I still think it's worth hearing.
Quote from: Todd on March 22, 2022, 02:46:57 PM
Has Russia published a list of their actual objectives and strategy in Ukraine, ranging from best case outcomes to acceptable outcomes? As far as I can tell, press outlets and the internet contain a lot of conjecture, and that's it. I know Jake Sullivan just offered his assessment, but I suspect he is politically biased.
Not as far as I know. Where I wrote "Russian objectives" one should read "things that have happened which can be speculatively considered beneficial to Russia".
Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2022, 02:54:51 PM
Yes, but I still think it's worth hearing.
They publish some interesting but very oddball stuff at times. Here for instance is the strangest thing I've read recently, Marxist literary critic Terry Eagleton free-associating about order, chaos, and Putin:
https://unherd.com/2022/03/vladimir-putins-war-on-chaos/
To bring things back to the personal level. We have a friend, originally from Russia, who was planning to get married to his Ukrainian bride in her homeland. That was the plan, anyway. Instead, they got married last week over Zoom, because the bride is now a refugee in Warsaw.
Also, a Russian lady whom we know (originally from Siberia) is now concerned about her Ukrainian husband. He went to Europe supposedly to do humanitarian work, but she is actually afraid that he's going there to fight and didn't want to tell her that.
The effect of losses on the combat capability of the invading forces was not invented for the present case. By the most conservative estimates Russian forces are near or past the 10% mark in killed, wounded or missing. The true figure is higher by all estimates including the leaked Russian one.
Regarding the effectiveness and consequences of the sanctions, the article bypasses the main point, which is to cripple the Russian war machine and bring forward the day that Russian soldiers can rejoin their families dead or alive.
If we didn't use sanctions for Ukraine, what point would there be to "reserving" them for a hypothetical Chinese action? Without the present actions China would be absolutely correct to assume that nothing would be done about an invasion of Taiwan. Indeed it would be almost shameful if they didn't invade soon, before China no longer could muster the strength to do so, a factor that preys on Chinese minds.
NATO turned out to be stronger than its enemies hoped, and American leadership by a President with a foreign policy orientation surprised many people, possibly including myself to a degree.
Quote from: amw on March 22, 2022, 02:55:22 PMWhere I wrote "Russian objectives" one should read "things that have happened which can be speculatively considered beneficial to Russia".
Some people opine with much greater certitude about Russian objectives. I admit I do not know what Putin and Russia are trying to achieve with this war at this time. Reconstitution of the Tsarist or Soviet Empire seems a bit far-fetched to me, for instance.
Putin can't persuade Belarus to support him with troops. Why not? One imagines Luka saying "hey, I have to live here!" or the like. The Belorussian armed forces are no doubt riddled with people who would dearly prefer to fight Russians than Ukrainians. Some of them are fighting Russians now alongside their Ukrainian hosts.
Many Russians would probably agree about how far fetched Putin's dream is, especially now. But military analysts can understand objectives and read maps. Russian military doctrine is also studied. I don't have any trouble understanding what is said, or handling disagreements.
Putin brought Chechens to Ukraine. I'm watching them attack Russians on CNN. allahu akbar!
Quote from: Madiel on March 22, 2022, 01:24:22 PM
Or maybe not. I went looking for information about this channel that you're fond of. The funniest description was " the kind of people who are generally "unheard" because people edge away from them at parties."
A quick look at the front page of their website threw up several articles about what's wrong with "The Left" and some favourite targets about university education and trans people. The origins as a site privately funded by a conservative backer are pretty apparent.
Yes, it's pretty transparent.
Quote from: amw on March 22, 2022, 05:23:34 PM
If Putin actually winds up getting most of the Kadyrovtsy killed by constantly sending them to the front lines, I guess at least we can say he successfully denazified Chechnya.
I think Drogulus is referring to some video showing individual Chechens who are fighting on the Ukrainian side.
Given his actions over the years I think we can be sure, after all, that some Chechens would be eager to de-Kadyrov Chechnya.
Quote from: Todd on March 22, 2022, 03:39:54 PM
Some people opine with much greater certitude about Russian objectives. I admit I do not know what Putin and Russia are trying to achieve with this war at this time. Reconstitution of the Tsarist or Soviet Empire seems a bit far-fetched to me, for instance.
I tend to agree, but 10% of his soldiers dying in a quagmire certainly weren't amongst them.
Quote from: The new erato on March 22, 2022, 10:02:58 PM
I tend to agree, but 10% of his soldiers dying in a quagmire certainly weren't amongst them.
We don't know is what level of losses the Russians had planned for.
Quote from: Herman on March 22, 2022, 05:03:45 PM
Yes, it's pretty transparent.
The fact that Terry Eagleton has written an article for them (in Archaic Torso's link) should make you think twice about dismissing them as some sort of right wing extreme group! Eagleton used to be a Marxist. But my real reason for posting is that I had assumed the article was by a poor undergraduate when I read this
QuoteFor Immanuel Kant, probably the greatest of modern philosophers, you should be moral because it is moral to be so.
As far as I know, in the Grundlegung, this isn't true - Kant thinks you should be moral because it is rational to be so. Am I wrong?
Russian early losses have already been extremely high by comparison to other recent wars by major powers, including the 10 years in Afghanistan (where they lost 15,000). That's also why leading figures are being sacked (and more than just the first reports about it), and when 6 generals were killed, because they were close to the front trying to steer and motivate, everybody agrees that this is highly unusual.
Also, they've excluded general mobilization so far, but some think they'll have to start that anyway.
I saw expert predictions before the invasion, as far as I remember the maximum Russian losses in a very prolonged war were around 10,000. But so far it's been only 4 weeks of war, and that's apparently the number now.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 22, 2022, 01:05:00 PM
The Russians have tried to take Kyiv since the beginning of the invasion and expected to do it in a matter of a few days. The prime objective was to depose the government in its seat. It's ridiculous to say they haven't tried just because they have as yet so spectacularly failed to achieve their objectives.
They've been hitting Russia's main armored forces for weeks. What war are you following?
"Hasn't gained quite as much as it was hoping to?" Oh please! What an absurd understatement. They've been humiliated.
Even the notorious, Russian, former commander Strelkov/Girkin agrees with those failures and errors in relation to the mentioned initial plans, in a long interview.
However he suggests attacking and taking all of Ukraine, including Lviv, because then Russia would be able to dictate the terms and the future completely; he doesn't specify how.
Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2022, 04:04:36 PM
The Belorussian armed forces are no doubt riddled with people who would dearly prefer to fight Russians than Ukrainians.
No doubt? On what facts do you base this conviction?
I wonder when Belorussian forces invade the western part of Ukraine if NATO would consider bombing them (on Ukranian soil), either from the air or with long range missiles? If this would be done at the request of Ukraine in assistance of the defence of its territory, would be perfectly legal and it doesn't involve a direct confrontation with Russian forces.
I would be tempted....
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 04:44:52 AM
I wonder when Belorussian forces invade the western part of Ukraine if NATO would consider bombing them (on Ukranian soil), either from the air or with long range missiles? If this would be done at the request of Ukraine in assistance of the defence of its territory, would be perfectly legal and it doesn't involve a direct confrontation with Russian forces.
I would be tempted....
There is profound danger in this logic.
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 04:44:52 AM
it doesn't involve a direct confrontation with Russian forces.
If Belarus invades Ukraine --- and there is a big if here --- they would do so at the request of, and as an ally of, Russia. What reason would the latter have for not considering an attack on their ally as an attack on themselves and react accordingly?
OTOH Lukashenko might need his forces to keep domestic control.
Oligarch-politician Chubais' resignation and leave for Turkey, known today, and the oligarch Deripaska calling the war 'madness', are the highlights so far as regards elite criticism of Putin's war.
Members of Putin's ruling party in the Duma, all belonging to the society elite as well, have now been informed in writing to ask for permission from the leadership to any travel abroad ...
Curiously, Shoigu hasn't been seen in public for 11 days (possibly due to health); and Gerasimov and the extremist National Guard boss are invisible too.
U.S. Threat to Sanction China Is Spooking Other Nations in Asia (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-22/u-s-threat-to-sanction-china-is-spooking-other-asian-nations)
Quote from: Philip Heijmans and Yudith Ho
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi has privately expressed concern about the U.S. threats of secondary sanctions against China because leaders in Jakarta see Beijing's stance on the war as neutral, according to a person familiar with the situation, who asked not to be identified.
While Indonesia is planning to welcome Russia to the G-20 summit, the person said, leaders in Southeast Asia's biggest economy are concerned the U.S. will increase pressure to abandon the country's non-aligned policy...
The uncertainty underscores the risk that the war in Ukraine will accelerate fissures in the global economy centered on national security risks over supply chains, advanced technology and the personal data of millions of citizens. Although the U.S. has yet to specify what business activity with Russia would trigger secondary sanctions, the frequent use of such measures against China in the past few years poses a significant risk for exporting nations reliant on the U.S. and European markets.
You are either with us or against us.
More pressure on the existing international system:
Russia's Putin gets Chinese backing to stay in G20 (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-ambassador-indonesia-says-putin-plans-attend-g20-summit-2022-03-23/)
WTO trade talks in disarray amid Ukraine tensions - sources (https://www.reuters.com/business/wto-trade-talks-disarray-amid-ukraine-tensions-sources-2022-03-22/)
Putin says Russia will start selling gas to 'unfriendly' countries in roubles (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-russia-will-start-selling-gas-unfriendly-countries-roubles-2022-03-23/)
While a regional hegemon continues to expand influence:
Iran and Syria to bolster ties after Ukraine crisis (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-syria-bolster-ties-after-ukraine-crisis-2022-03-23/)
Quote from: Todd on March 23, 2022, 05:11:04 AM
There is profound danger in this logic.
Quote from: Florestan on March 23, 2022, 05:16:50 AM
If Belarus invades Ukraine --- and there is a big if here --- they would do so at the request of, and as an ally of, Russia. What reason would the latter have for not considering an attack on their ally as an attack on themselves and react accordingly?
So any ally of Russia has a free pass to invade the Ukraine?
I see the danger, but where do we draw the line? When is enough enough?
Putin keeps pushing the boundaries again and again. It seems inevitable that the western allies will have to draw the line at some point. In my estimation it is actually better and less dangerous to pick a suitable moment soon than wait till the last moment.
The alternative is to decide not to militarily intervene under any circumstance, no matter what Russia and its allies do...
Quote from: Florestan on March 23, 2022, 04:17:29 AM
No doubt? On what facts do you base this conviction?
I have no doubt that the Belorussians fighting Russians now in Ukraine are representative of many more. More conjectural is the fact that the armed forces have not participated even though Putin desperately needs them. Luka has also said Belarus won't send troops. Then there is his map, his wonderful map featuring Moldova as a target of Russian operations.
By itself each indicator is less than decisive. Together they are. Russia, not Ukraine, is feared and hated. Luka "mistakenly" showed the world that Putin intends far more than regime change in Kyiv. That's probably more confirmation of what we know than we need, but is nevertheless good to have.
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 05:48:30 AM
So any ally of Russia has a free pass to invade the Ukraine?
I see the danger, but where do we draw the line? When is enough enough?
Putin keeps pushing the boundaries again and again. It seems inevitable that the western allies will have to draw the line at some point. In my estimation it is actually better and less dangerous to pick a suitable moment soon than wait till the last moment.
NATO, meaning the US, is not obligated to defend Ukraine. There is no line to be drawn.
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 05:48:30 AM
The alternative is to decide not to militarily intervene under any circumstance, no matter what Russia and its allies do...
There are other options, but ultimately, there is no compelling reason for NATO, meaning the US, to become militarily involved in Ukraine.
Quote from: Todd on March 23, 2022, 05:58:37 AM
NATO, meaning the US, is not obligated to defend Ukraine. There is no line to be drawn.
There are other options, but ultimately, there is no compelling reason for NATO, meaning the US, to become militarily involved in Ukraine.
Has to be the US, will not be the troops of the Netherlands running to the rescue.
NATO is drawing its own lines on the level of assistance it provides. The most important countries IME are the US and Poland, the latter being the most important front line state in this war.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on March 23, 2022, 06:24:39 AM
Has to be the US, will not be the troops of the Netherlands running to the rescue.
The disdain is palpable. But being born as a citizen of a superpower is not a matter of personal merit.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 23, 2022, 12:40:27 AM
As far as I know, in the Grundlegung, this isn't true - Kant thinks you should be moral because it is rational to be so. Am I wrong?
Yeah, you're right. It's pretty basic - I have no idea why Eagleton would commit such a tautology. BTW I think he's always been a Marxist, no "used to be" (Eagleton I mean, not Kant).
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 06:36:29 AM
The disdain is palpable. But being born as a citizen of a superpower is not a matter of personal merit.
It is not the job of the US to fight in every war.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on March 23, 2022, 06:42:34 AM
It is not the job of the US to fight in every war.
Another very stupid remark, better think twice before posting such a blatant nonsense.
Quote from: "Harry" on March 23, 2022, 06:46:05 AM
Another very stupid remark, better think twice before posting such a blatant nonsense.
Why is stupid. The US has spent too much money and lost too many US soldiers lives in the last 20 years. It is time for others to take up that cost.
Some interesting reading.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/22/alexander-dugin-author-putin-deady-playbook/
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 05:48:30 AM
So any ally of Russia has a free pass to invade the Ukraine?
I see the danger, but where do we draw the line? When is enough enough?
Putin keeps pushing the boundaries again and again. It seems inevitable that the western allies will have to draw the line at some point. In my estimation it is actually better and less dangerous to pick a suitable moment soon than wait till the last moment.
The alternative is to decide not to militarily intervene under any circumstance, no matter what Russia and its allies do...
The line is the border of any NATO country. The US non-intervention in Afghanistan in the 80s has retrospectively been judged a great success. Perhaps this one will as well. The rapid fracturing of Putin's croneysphere seems a hopeful sign. Perhaps someone else will draw a line in Moscow?
Ukraine is paying a massive cost to defend Europe by defending itself. Helping them the way we are serves a broad set of priorities that are widely agreed on, especially after Biden insisted on wide agreement.
As I expected the Uke counterattack is going slow. They don't have enough troops, planes, drones etc to advance on all fronts. Still, there have been successes.
The US TrumPutinist opposition is focusing on a crucial weakness in the case for war, namely Hunter Biden and his notorious laptop.
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 05:48:30 AM
I see the danger, but where do we draw the line? When is enough enough?
The line has already been drawn by NATO: aid and assist Ukraine in every possible way save military intervention, which means war with Russia, which means nuclear war, which means the end of the world.
Quote from: Florestan on March 23, 2022, 07:34:37 AM
The line has already been drawn by NATO: aid and assist Ukraine in every possible way save military intervention, which means war with Russia, which means nuclear war, which means the end of the world.
Yes, and it should be clear that NATO is being conservative by not pushing MIGs out the door right away. I would be interested to know what Biden will discuss with the Poles. I mean, I wouldn't want to
speculate.
(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/tongue.gif)
Quote from: Florestan on March 23, 2022, 07:34:37 AM
The line has already been drawn by NATO: aid and assist Ukraine in every possible way save military intervention, which means war with Russia, which means nuclear war, which means the end of the world.
You (and others) are right. :) I hope Lukashenko thinks better of it, though he is doomed anyway.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on March 23, 2022, 06:54:24 AM
Why is stupid. The US has spent too much money and lost too many US soldiers lives in the last 20 years. It is time for others to take up that cost.
I'd wish that the US wouldn't have fought the Afghanistan and the Iraq Wars, because those are the wars you are referring to. An incredible waste of human lives, American and otherwise, a waste of US tax payer's money and with many disastrous geopolitical effects. Amongst which an erosion of the international mechanisms that kept Russia and China in check.
Quote from: drogulus on March 23, 2022, 07:33:33 AM
The US TrumPutinist opposition is focusing on a crucial weakness in the case for war, namely Hunter Biden and his notorious laptop.
Irredeemable fantasists. As with their cannabalistic pedophile pizzerias.
Quote from: drogulus on March 23, 2022, 07:47:27 AM
Yes, and it should be clear that NATO is being conservative by not pushing MIGs out the door right away. I would be interested to know what Biden will discuss with the Poles. I mean, I wouldn't want to speculate. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/tongue.gif)
(* chortle *)
Here's an interesting interview with the leader of the Belarus opposition conducted on German TV.
https://www.youtube.com/v/UGepNb0VvlE&t
Quote from: drogulus on March 23, 2022, 08:22:26 AM
Here's an interesting interview with the leader of the Belarus opposition conducted on German TV.
Interesting indeed! I wonder: if the Belarusian military is resisting involvement in the Ukrainian war, how is Putin going to force their hands since he is short on troops in the first place? If he tries, he might trigger a coup.
I think Putin's weakness in this war is that he has been forced to stake everything on one card.
He won't be able to deal with anything else(where) militarily.
Poland expels 45 Russian 'spies pretending to be diplomats,' in escalation over Ukraine invasion
Ukraine's Mykolaiv has held off Russian forces. Bodies are piling up anyway.
If Putin Were to Use Nuclear Weapons, What Would Follow? (https://www.thebulwark.com/if-putin-were-to-use-nuclear-weapons-what-would-follow/)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 23, 2022, 09:09:46 AM
Ukraine's Mykolaiv has held off Russian forces. Bodies are piling up anyway.
My heart goes out to the many Russian conscripts that are sacrificed for the personal delusions of a crazy man.
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 09:17:45 AM
My heart goes out to the many Russian conscripts that are sacrificed for the personal delusions of a crazy man.
Truly.
NATO is ( unsurprisingly ) bolstering its forces in Eastern Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60830013
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 08:13:40 AMAmongst which an erosion of the international mechanisms that kept Russia and China in check.
This is only partly true, and the two wars, Iraq in particular, can be seen to only slightly accelerate long-term processes underway for decades. The post-war international system heavily favors western nations, a reality other countries have long bristled at, few more than China. The very idea of keeping China "in check" perfectly illustrates the cultural bias inherent in the international system and the beliefs underpinning it.
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 08:13:40 AM
I'd wish that the US wouldn't have fought the Afghanistan and the Iraq Wars, because those are the wars you are referring to. An incredible waste of human lives, American and otherwise, a waste of US tax payer's money and with many disastrous geopolitical effects. Amongst which an erosion of the international mechanisms that kept Russia and China in check.
Totally agree.
Certainly many Asian countries are culturally biased against Chinese militarism. What's wrong with these people?
Quote from: Todd on March 23, 2022, 09:23:45 AM
The very idea of keeping China "in check" perfectly illustrates the cultural bias inherent in the international system and the beliefs underpinning it.
Russia and China. And it has nothing to do with cultural bias but with prudence and keeping the peace: these are world powers that are/were
dictatorships. And major dictatorships are intrinsically a threat to international peace, and freedom for that matter.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 23, 2022, 05:28:17 AM
Oligarch-politician Chubais' resignation and leave for Turkey, known today, and the oligarch Deripaska calling the war 'madness', are the highlights so far as regards elite criticism of Putin's war.
Members of Putin's ruling party in the Duma, all belonging to the society elite as well, have now been informed in writing to ask for permission from the leadership to any travel abroad ...
Curiously, Shoigu hasn't been seen in public for 11 days (possibly due to health); and Gerasimov and the extremist National Guard boss are invisible too.
Meduza, normally reliable, reports that about 1/4 of the centrally placed people in Putin's administration wanted to quit following the invasion, and Bloomberg that the Central Bank CEO Nabiullina wanted to as well, but that 'keeping up appearances' has been considered so important for Putin, that they were threatened with severe consequences if they did, including for their families, so they stayed.
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 09:44:56 AM
Russia and China. And it has nothing to do with cultural bias but with prudence and keeping the peace: these are world powers that are/were dictatorships. And major dictatorships are intrinsically a threat to international peace, and freedom for that matter.
That is one way of looking at it, but only one. The United States is a democratic republic, but it has engaged in and started multiple wars of choice all over the world for decades. Well, for over a century, really. China, by contrast, has limited military actions to countries in its immediate geographic region. Russia has likewise limited its direct military action to its near abroad since the collapse of the USSR. So, the current three great powers, two dictatorships and one democracy, have all been warlike, with the democratic power the most warlike of all. Prior to establishment of the post-war order, democratic countries waged war all over the world, and engaged in violently exploitative imperialism. The idea that democracies are somehow less warlike does not square with history.
But that also misses the larger point: the way you frame the international system relies on a specific way of looking at the world - ie, liberalism, democracy, freedom, etc, are good and should be pursued and encouraged. I happen to rather enjoy those ideas and I enjoy living in a country where I have those things, but they are not universal. They do not represent
truth. Countries like China and Russia are more common throughout history than countries in the contemporary west. And countries like Russia and China will understandably bristle at being constrained by The West. So will other countries now and in the future. Strict adherence to a now outdated international system and now faltering international institutions does not necessarily preserve international peace. It may even foment war.
Gazprom Marketing avoided insolvency in March but pressure mounting - sources (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gazprom-marketing-avoided-insolvency-march-pressure-mounting-sources-2022-03-23/)
Quote from: Marwa Rashad and Kate HoltonRussia-owned Gazprom Marketing & Trading (GM&T) narrowly averted insolvency in March by meeting a key monthly payment deadline, but concerns are mounting over whether it can remain afloat next month, industry sources told Reuters.
Its collapse could plunge European gas markets into disarray.
The company has not faced sanctions.
I understand the difference between land powers and sea powers, the latter often fighting on the other side of the world, the former often incapable of doing so. Geography is a factor, and I think there is a difference in the way the seafarers come to think about the world in terms of trade and cooperation.
Alliance systems that rely more on persuasion and less on coercion seem to be robust. Whatever quarrels the US has with Japan and Germany, they don't seem to be eager to quit the club.
Wars will be prevented and fomented. One hopes the fomented ones will be smaller than the prevented ones. That's the plan as I understand it, and that's playing into alliance calculations right now.
Quote from: LKB on March 23, 2022, 09:22:09 AM
NATO is ( unsurprisingly ) bolstering its forces in Eastern Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60830013
Yeah, I heard that story earlier today. I can certainly understand that.
PD
Counterattack news: Russian forces on both the eastern and western pincers around Kyiv are retreating. It's probably not very far and mainly to escape heavy Ukrainian shelling.
Quote from: drogulus on March 23, 2022, 03:56:48 PM
Counterattack news: Russian forces on both the eastern and western pincers around Kyiv are retreating. It's probably not very far and mainly to escape heavy Ukrainian shelling.
It is reasonable to expect Ukrainian forces to make gains in local areas which have greater importance. Kyiv is not only Kyiv, it is also Zelenskyy, and the Russians have reportedly made over a dozen attempts to assassinate him. I'd expect Ukraine to exert every effort to protect the city for as long as the effort is possible.
Yes, I hope the Ukrainian troops advance further and invade Belarus. Russia won't help them.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on March 23, 2022, 07:21:30 PM
Yes, I hope the Ukrainian troops advance further and invade Belarus. Russia won't help them.
You mean can't?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOkQtQrXIAAGAgJ?format=jpg&name=large)
Quote from: LKB on March 23, 2022, 04:27:17 PM
It is reasonable to expect Ukrainian forces to make gains in local areas which have greater importance. Kyiv is not only Kyiv, it is also Zelenskyy, and the Russians have reportedly made over a dozen attempts to assassinate him. I'd expect Ukraine to exert every effort to protect the city for as long as the effort is possible.
Hopefully this is not the way they're thinking. Zelensky is not a king or tsar, like Pute.
Quote from: Herman on March 23, 2022, 11:59:34 PM
Hopefully this is not the way they're thinking. Zelensky is not a king or tsar, like Pute.
Quite so, but Zelenskyy has been running a near-perfect game, displaying wartime leadership, personal courage, a willingness to seriously negotiate, and the ability to inspire not only Ukrainians, but people and governments around the world. Such politicians are the rarest of assets for any nation, and he needs to be protected.
'Shame on you': How President Zelensky uses speeches to get what he needs (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60855280)
Belarus is preparing:
Belarus Shuts Ukrainian Consulate In Brest, Expels Several Diplomats From Minsk (https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-ukrainian-consulate-embassy-expulsions/31767073.html)
Quote from: LKB on March 24, 2022, 12:15:32 AM
Quite so, but Zelenskyy has been running a near-perfect game, displaying wartime leadership, personal courage, a willingness to seriously negotiate, and the ability to inspire not only Ukrainians, but people and governments around the world. Such politicians are the rarest of assets for any nation, and he needs to be protected.
I found this commentary on Zelenskyy's media/propaganda intelligence quite interesting.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-24/vladimir-putin-pr-strategy-no-match-for-volodymyr-zelenskyy/100914172
Quote from: Que on March 23, 2022, 11:58:03 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOkQtQrXIAAGAgJ?format=jpg&name=large)
That's very optimistic! I hope it's true.
While Europeans continue to murder each other at scale, other powers pursue other goals:
China Eyes Two Wins on Ukraine: Ending Russia's War and NATO's Expansion (https://www.newsweek.com/china-ukraine-russia-war-nato-1691224?msclkid=3b115b72ab7a11ecb11d049fe08ca697)
EXCLUSIVE Solomon Islands considers security cooperation with China - official (https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-solomon-islands-considers-security-cooperation-with-china-official-2022-03-24/)
How much influence China has in whatever peace negotiations may occur is of course in doubt - and make no mistake, there are clearly a lot of people everywhere who display bloodlust, desiring continuation and escalation of the war, so peace talks may be a ways out - little watched steps like those taken with the Solomons chip away at other existing strategic arrangements. (Of course, the US and its allies may counter with a sweeter deal.)
Oh yes, and more sanctions were levied against Russia today. These should be the ones that make the country buckle.
Here's a view of the effect of the war on China.
https://www.youtube.com/v/3z6IWyaO168
Putin is being backed into a corner now and he's certainly not going to admit defeat, so the only thing left is nuclear warfare.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 24, 2022, 06:51:58 AM
Putin is being backed into a corner now and he's certainly not going to admit defeat, so the only thing left is nuclear warfare.
Other Russians are admitting it, and I think they don't want a nuclear war. If Putin presses the button, it will be his last official act.
Shoigu is "ill". I identify his illness as incipient blame. Yet according to official pronouncements there is nothing to blame anyone for, since the special operation is going according to plan.
Now the poor defense minister has popped up. Instead of being ill he is busy.
Quote from: Todd on March 24, 2022, 06:09:49 AM
While Europeans continue to murder each other at scale,
This is an exaggeration.
One European nation, ie Russia, invaded another European nation, ie Ukraine. Consequently, Ukrainians defend themselves against the Russian invaders.
It's tragic, it's sad and it has to stop asap --- but it's very far from "Europeans [...] murder each other at scale".
Just saying.
Quote from: Todd on March 24, 2022, 06:09:49 AM
there are clearly a lot of people everywhere who display bloodlust, desiring continuation and escalation of the war,
Like for instance who?
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 07:24:22 AM
If Putin presses the button, it will be his last official act.
Hopefully, it won't be the last official act of any head of state anywhere, anytime.
There are a couple of critiques of Biden regarding Ukraine. One is that he is deliberately sacrificing the country to pursue a NATO war against Russia and trying to block Zelensky from making a deal too soon to destroy Russia completely. The other criticism is that Biden is not doing enough to help Ukraine expel the invaders out of an excess of caution. For now I'll go with both.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 24, 2022, 09:39:18 AM
That's a bit like saying Flat Earthers provide a 'critique' of the global Earth model!
NATO is a defensive pact. It has once bombed a country in an attempt to secure a peace deal (Serbia, 1999), otherwise it has never been the aggressor in any conflict, nor acted without UN approval.
NATO isn't pursuing a 'war against Russia' in any way, shape or form and anything it is currently doing is by way of defending against an obviously expansionist Russia.
Anyone suggesting that NATO is waging a war against Russia is just as mind-bonkingly nutters as those espousing 'there's no curvature of the Earth, space doesn't exist and NASA is part of the Illuminati' "critiques".
Why any of us gives such people the merest whiff of the oxygen of publicity by repeating their nonsense, I have no idea.
While I wholeheartedly agree with the general gist of your post, that "little" exception actually set a dangerous precedent --- one which the scelerate Putin invoked nominally.
NATO had no business bombing Serbia back then. But heck, Serbia had no nukes. ;D
No, really, much of a NATO fan as I am, the Kosovo thing was a big blunder. Witness to that is that even today Spain, Romania and Greece, all NATO members, did not recognize an independent Kosovo --- and rightly so.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 24, 2022, 09:39:18 AM
NATO isn't pursuing a 'war against Russia' in any way, shape or form and anything it is currently doing is by way of defending against an obviously expansionist Russia.
NATO is pursuing a war against an expansionist Russia. Of course it's a defensive war, and that's a kind of war.
I think you might have misread the way I meant to indicate how each critique undercuts the other.
No they are not. If they did, Putin would be finished. Not a single NATO crew has fired a single shot.
Quote from: The new erato on March 24, 2022, 09:55:57 AM
No they are not. If they did, Putin would be finished. Not a single NATO crew has fired a single shot.
If a strictly conventional NATO-Russia war started tomorrow, NATO troops would parade on the Red Square coming 9th of May.
Unfortunately, Russia is a nuclear hooligan... :(
Quote from: The new erato on March 24, 2022, 09:55:57 AM
No they are not. If they did, Putin would be finished. Not a single NATO crew has fired a single shot.
The war is being carefully fought via support for Ukraine. I suggested that critics complain about strategy from opposing perspectives. I try to follow these discussions as well as what's happening in the present zone of combat. Some important stuff is not discussed publicly and I only become aware of it by the obvious and remarkable degree to which the Ukes know exactly where Russians are while Russians don't know shit.
Of course NATO is fighting a war it didn't wish for. I am entirely familiar with how much NATO didn't want war before Russia invaded Ukraine, and how much they would prefer not to be fighting it now.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 24, 2022, 10:19:31 AM
NATO is maintaining a defensive posture. They are doing everything short of 'fighting' anything.
That may be the best war strategy available considering the risks. You do realize that sending military and intelligence aid to a combatant is a form of limited war, don't you?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 24, 2022, 10:19:31 AM
NATO is maintaining a defensive posture. They are doing everything short of 'fighting' anything.
Agreed. NATO is not fighting a war, they (actually, WE) are doing our best to avoid fighting a war.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 09:51:28 AM
NATO had no business bombing Serbia back then. But heck, Serbia had no nukes. ;D
No, really, much of a NATO fan as I am, the Kosovo thing was a big blunder. Witness to that is that even today Spain, Romania and Greece, all NATO members, did not recognize an independent Kosovo --- and rightly so.
It's interesting how we're diametrically opposed on almost every political issue and yet agree on Serbia/Kosovo in particular—and, I think, for pretty much the same reasons. (Well ok, we also agree on the unhealthy nature of the Cult of Beethoven, the relatively greater value of Mozart, Schubert and Chopin, and etc.) I guess there's always room for
some sort of common ground.
Pleased to see a new(ish) and ongoing Ukrainian offensive against Russia's Kiev front (with at least two spearpoints, near Makariv and Bucha; probably elsewhere as well). For some time now I've thought that front was a bluff, and UA is now calling that bluff. This leaves the RuAF with the choices of a) trying to reinforce this line to keep the pressure on, which means pulling troops away from areas where it actually
needs them, or b) actually withdrawing to prevent encirclement/mass casualties, thereby revealing the facade and granting Ukraine a genuine propaganda victory that raises civilian morale. Or I guess c) leave the troops there to die or be captured, but that seems unlikely. (I obviously support option b.) If the front
isn't a bluff and has stalled for some other reason (incompetent commanding officer, insufficient supplies, some objective we're unaware of), I don't think that significantly changes these options either.
Apart from that, nothing particularly positive to report, that I've noticed anyway.
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 10:31:37 AM
That may be the best war strategy available considering the risks. You do realize that sending military and intelligence aid to a combatant is a form of limited war, don't you?
Sanctions and blockades are also acts of war, incidentally.
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 10:31:37 AM
sending military and intelligence aid to a combatant is a form of limited war
I object to the term "combatant" being applied to Ukraine. They are simply defending their country against a heinous invasion by a foreign army. I should have thought that sending defensive military and intelligence aid to a nation which has been unprovokedly invaded by another nation is legit under international law. I might be wrong, though.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 10:32:34 AM
Agreed. NATO is not fighting a war, they (actually, WE) are doing our best to avoid fighting a war.
It's a larger war that's being avoided, at least for now. It's certainly possible that Russia will be ground down so much by failure in Ukraine that it no longer can threaten other counties. If that is what happens, it would be a victory for all of the countries that are contributing to the war effort.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 10:40:21 AM
I object to the term "combatant" being applied to Ukraine. They are simply defending their country against a heinous invasion by a foreign army. I should have thought that sending defensive military and intelligence aid to a nation which has been unprovokedly invaded by another nation is legit under international law. I might be wrong, though.
I don't know why you object to calling combat what it is. As for defensive warfare, it's legit. Calling a war by its name doesn't suggest otherwise. Do you think Ukrainians would deny they're in a war just because they were subject to an unprovoked attack?
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 07:35:32 AMIt's tragic, it's sad and it has to stop asap --- but it's very far from "Europeans [...] murder each other at scale".
Actually, I concede you are correct. NATO estimates ~40K Russian casualties, with ~7000 of them deaths. Ukrainians have ~1000 civilian deaths and ~1500 casualties, with only a couple thousand or so dead Ukrainian servicemembers. By European standards, this is peanuts.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 07:37:41 AMLike for instance who?
Every person who advocates establishing a no-fly zone, sending additional material support (eg, Polish MiGs), and expanded weapons shipments/sales of every conceivable type, which will serve to prolong the war. A growing number of Congressional leaders say they want more robust action in response to Russia, though some of that is purely political. Some more ardent hawks mean it. And then some members of the US press are in war drum beating moods (eg, Chuck Todd). Maybe there is a more intense push for diplomacy vs military fighting among Europeans. I spy some tough talk among some European outlets as well, though.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 10:01:21 AMIf a strictly conventional NATO-Russia war started tomorrow, NATO troops would parade on the Red Square coming 9th of May.
Just like the Grande Armée.
Quote from: amw on March 24, 2022, 10:35:29 AMSanctions and blockades are also acts of war, incidentally.
Yes.
While there are degrees of war, international law may not cover the range of cases with precision. Countries might wish to deny war while fighting by proxy to avoid legal consequences, or to signal to adversaries that that will not be directly attacked if they don't go too far. This was understood in Korea and Vietnam. There's a danger that Putin will decide not to understand limits in Ukraine, and that has to worry Ukrainian partners in what is broadly understood as the defense of Europe against aggression.
Quote from: amw on March 24, 2022, 10:35:29 AM
It's interesting how we're diametrically opposed on almost every political issue and yet agree on Serbia/Kosovo in particular—and, I think, for pretty much the same reasons. (Well ok, we also agree on the unhealthy nature of the Cult of Beethoven, the relatively greater value of Mozart, Schubert and Chopin, and etc.) I guess there's always room for some sort of common ground.
Of course there is. For all your apology of Lenin, Stalin and Mao I very much doubt that you were able to shoot me in the head, or even order me to be shot in the head, although according to their doctrine I am an objective class enemy because an unrepentant bourgeois liberal. :D
Seriously now, I'm sure that if we met in person we'd get along just fine. If only for our common love for Schumann, ;)
Look, I often called you names, for which I apologize --- but at least I did read your posts in their entirety. :laugh:
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 10:44:32 AM
I don't know why you object to calling combat what it is. As for defensive warfare, it's legit. Calling a war by its name doesn't suggest otherwise.
Are you implying that NATO is currently at war with Russia?
Quote from: Todd on March 24, 2022, 10:47:17 AM
Every person who advocates establishing a no-fly zone, sending additional material support (eg, Polish MiGs), and expanded weapons shipments/sales of every conceivable type, which will serve to prolong the war. A growing number of Congressional leaders say they want more robust action in response to Russia, though some of that is purely political. Some more ardent hawks mean it. And then some members of the US press are in war drum beating moods (eg, Chuck Todd).
Ah, okay. I am relieved then, I really am. For a moment I thought you were talking about the official position of the USA / NATO.
QuoteJust like the Grande Armée.
The comparison is moot. Napoleon invaded Russia unprovoked.
Actually, the
1812 Overture is very appropriate in these times: a megalomaniac dictator unprovokedly invades a sovereign country and is repelled by both army and people. Count me in.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 11:18:28 AMThe comparison is moot. Napoleon invaded Russia unprovoked.
It is very relevant. Defeating Russia and marching on Moscow is a rather difficult thing to do. Triumphalism should generally be avoided.
BlackRock's Larry Fink, who oversees $10 trillion, says Russia-Ukraine war is ending globalization (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/blackrocks-larry-fink-who-oversees-10-trillion-says-russia-ukraine-war-is-ending-globalization.html?msclkid=d98349d8aba611eca9da8dd54cf37a4d)
The PM of Estonia says:
At NATO, our focus should be simple: Mr. Putin cannot win this war. He cannot even think he has won, or his appetite will grow. We need to demonstrate the will and commit resources to defend NATO territory. To check Russia's aggression, we need to put in place a long-term policy of smart containment.
First, we must help Ukraine in every possible way. The people of Ukraine have not tired, and neither can we. True, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has galvanized us into action. Allies and partners have made decisions with remarkable determination and unity. But now is the time to go the extra mile.
Ukrainian soldiers are able fighters, but they need weapons and matériel, including longer-range air defense assets and anti-tank missiles to better protect their skies. Defensive military aid must be our top priority, and we must commit ourselves to it for the long haul.Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 11:10:03 AM
Are you implying that NATO is currently at war with Russia?
I'm stating the fact that NATO is participating in an undeclared war against Russia, just as the PM of Estonia, a NATO member, says. She says this is what we must do, and I trust it's clear that what must be done is actually being done.
Quote from: Todd on March 24, 2022, 11:23:19 AM
Defeating Russia and marching on Moscow is a rather difficult thing to do.
Napoleon did it.
Hitler almost did it
NATO would most certainly do it if the war was strictly conventional.
For the record: I'm not a hawk. I don't want the war to escalate, I don't want NATO to go at war with Russia. I want the whole madness to stop asap.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 11:30:57 AMNapoleon did it.
I forgot, did Napoleon defeat Russia?
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 11:25:36 AM
NATO is participating in an undeclared war against Russia
Which for the scelerate Putin is reason enough to go nuke.
Quote from: Todd on March 24, 2022, 11:35:30 AM
I forgot, did Napoleon defeat Russia?
If marching on Moscow and occupying it militarily, flying the French flag over the Kremlin, means defeating Russia, then yes, he did,
As different from marching on Kiev and occupying it militarily, which Putin is not able to do.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 11:44:23 AMIf marching on Moscow and occupying it militarily, flying the French flag over the Kremlin, means defeating Russia, then yes, he did,
An interesting take on history.
I doubt it will be necessary to go to war with Russia in Russia. The next batch of Russian rulers will have learned to be somewhat more cautious.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 24, 2022, 11:33:26 AM
Gladstone was urging Disraeli to wage a humanitarian war against the Turks in his pamphlet about the 'Bulgarian Attrocities' in 1876ish.
Please read
Dostoevsky's
Diary of a Writer in this respect. You'll find that Putin is actually a moderate. FMD argued for nothing less and nothing more than Russia taking and holding Constantinople forever and patronizing a Pan-Southern-Slavic federation. ;D
Ukraine is in no sense an aggressor. As they are involved in combat Ukraine is a combatant
Quote from: Todd on March 24, 2022, 11:45:54 AM
An interesting take on history.
Feel free to have a different one.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2022, 12:01:44 PM
Ukraine is in no sense an aggressor. As they are involved in combat Ukraine is a combatant
The sad irony is that while we are involved in vocabulary disputations people are killed and maimed on the ground.
Russia is the plain and naked aggressor. Ukrainians defend themselves. Period.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 12:09:13 PM
The sad irony is that while we are involved in vocabulary disputations people are killed and maimed on the ground.
Russia is the plain and naked aggressor. Ukrainians defend themselves. Period.
Aye, we all know that. And probably we all understand that the luxury to discuss fine points of language is one which the Ukrainians are quite a distance from enjoying, themselves.
I woke to several pages of drogulus redefining "war" in ways that would make Lewis Carroll proud.
Of course this isn't the first time. We have the war on drugs, the war on terror (which I remember a judge instantly critiquing after 9/11 when a government lawyer said "we are at war" in an opening address).
War has a technical meaning, drogulus, whether you and others like using it as a rhetorical device or not. When you throw the term around wherever you feel like it, you actually lose the ability to create nuance between situations. If you claim that NATO is at war now, you lose the ability to talk about levels of escalation.
And quite frankly you waste everybody's time. Those pages of people being distracted by your idiosyncratic language are a waste.
What the international community witness is an undeclared Russian war on Ukraine which turned into ongoing Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
Period.
Quote from: Madiel on March 24, 2022, 12:32:51 PM
I woke to several pages of drogulus redefining "war" in ways that would make Lewis Carroll proud.
Of course this isn't the first time. We have the war on drugs, the war on terror (which I remember a judge instantly critiquing after 9/11 when a government lawyer said "we are at war" in an opening address).
War has a technical meaning, drogulus, whether you and others like using it as a rhetorical device or not. When you throw the term around wherever you feel like it, you actually lose the ability to create nuance between situations. If you claim that NATO is at war now, you lose the ability to talk about levels of escalation.
And quite frankly you waste everybody's time. Those pages of people being distracted by your idiosyncratic language are a waste.
War is not a technical term and I am using it in one of its correct meanings. Perhaps you could tell me what it is that would be escalated if NATO took bolder action. What would that thing be?
There is a serious point here. One kind of war is the kind you deny you are in, or deny will soon happen, or won't involve you because your country is merely sending weapons and ammunition and target spotting intelligence to a country that is fighting a defensive........notwar?
People might think war is immoral to the point that they won't call just action war. It has to be called something else. I don't tolerate that. You send the weapons, they kill the enemy, it's war.
Anyone hear about the redditors going to Ukraine getting people killed because the photos they took gave away the location of their barracks, and the Russian military easily spots it and blows it up?
Some people ::) ... the craving for social validation and approval literally getting themselves and others killed, perhaps if they had more supportive friends in their past it would have eased their appetite and prevented this from happening.
The story I heard was about the mall that was destroyed after someone posted something about seeing soldiers there.
Quote from: greg on March 24, 2022, 02:26:30 PM
Anyone hear about the redditors going to Ukraine getting people killed because the photos they took gave away the location of their barracks, and the Russian military easily spots it and blows it up?
Some people ::) ... the craving for social validation and approval literally getting themselves and others killed, perhaps if they had more supportive friends in their past it would have eased their appetite and prevented this from happening.
Yes, there were also official warnings from Ukraine about it being potentially damaging.
Even in Sweden, where there is a lot of open talk about possible Russian aggression, authorities have already officially asked the public not to post
any military pictures/stuff from Sweden either.
I suppose everyone knows about the kamikaze drones Ukraine acquired from the US. I'd like to know who is operating them.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 24, 2022, 10:46:46 AM
Really? So, bombing Peal Harbor was a perfectly legitimate response to the USA's 'declaration of war' against Japan when it imposed oil embargoes in the early 1940s?
Seriously??
It was a
disproportionate response to be sure. I'm not sure whether it would have been considered a legitimate response under League of Nations law, but according to United Nations law:
QuoteThe 1965 "Declaration on the Inadmissibility of Intervention in the Domestic Affairs of States and the Protection of Their Independence and Sovereignty" [declares] that No State may use or encourage the use of economic, political or other types of measures to coerce another State in order to obtain from it the subordination of the exercise of its sovereign rights or to secure from it advantages of any kind.
In more recent international law, this declaration (similar language has been reaffirmed several times) has been considered an extension of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which "prohibits all UN members from resorting to the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State (i.e., UN member or not)." Economic sanctions or embargos and blockades are considered threats or uses of force respectively, and are thus
generally a privilege the UN Security Council reserves for itself, otherwise being legally indefensible in most cases. (Although no legal measures are usually taken against UNSC permanent members that impose sanctions on other countries, since these members can just veto any legal action against themselves.) See, e.g., https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1602&context=ils (https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1602&context=ils) for an overview of the situation at the end of the twentieth century, along with (many) other sources.
Given that the Russian invasion of Ukraine violates international law in a number of particulars already, including at least some of the Geneva Conventions (e.g., prisoners of war have been executed, civilians have been relocated into Russian territory, white phosphorus has been used, etc.), one could argue that US/EU economic warfare is the only currently-possible legal remedy short of military warfare, since Russia could veto any UNSC measures undertaken to bring it back in line with international law. But it is still a form of warfare, legally speaking.
A Uke fighter pilot (SU-27) says they are using tactics taught to them by "American friends".
NATO has the best lawyers.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 24, 2022, 06:51:58 AM
Putin is being backed into a corner now and he's certainly not going to admit defeat, so the only thing left is nuclear warfare.
Fatalistic point of view. He has other options like proclaiming victory. In his world, he controls the narrative so can define "victory".
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 02:20:29 PM
War is not a technical term.
It is. This is why the notion of a declaration of war exists. There are a whole range of legal mechanisms that depend on a state of war existing.
Quote from: Madiel on March 24, 2022, 05:16:06 PM
It is. This is why the notion of a declaration of war exists. There are a whole range of legal mechanisms that depend on a state of war existing.
If you want to be that technical, then the last war in which the USA fought ended in 1945 with the surrender of Japan.
The Korean, Vietnam, Gulf, Afghan, Iraq would be not-wars. Same for the Cold War.
Not to mention the various Wars on Abstract Nouns we've engaged in from the War on Poverty onwards.
My point of course being that "war" has a much broader meaning in everyday discourse than it does in the documents of international law.
Quote from: JBS on March 24, 2022, 06:02:44 PM
If you want to be that technical, then the last war in which the USA fought ended in 1945 with the surrender of Japan.
The Korean, Vietnam, Gulf, Afghan, Iraq would be not-wars. Same for the Cold War.
Not to mention the various Wars on Abstract Nouns we've engaged in from the War on Poverty onwards.
My point of course being that "war" has a much broader meaning in everyday discourse than it does in the documents of international law.
Look, this isn't about law or definitions, it's about some people struggling with the way that war scrambles ideological precepts designed to maintain a veil of innocence. War is what the other side does, and if the defense is justified it can't be called war. Attitudes like this have cost countless Ukrainian lives because NATO wasted months proving its innocence of any intention of providing adequate aid until after the war began.
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 06:41:56 PM
Look, this isn't about law or definitions, it's about some people struggling with the way that war scrambles ideological precepts designed to maintain a veil of innocence. War is what the other side does, and if the defense is justified it can't be called war. Attitudes like this have cost countless Ukrainian lives because NATO wasted months proving its innocence of any intention of providing adequate aid until after the war began.
To the extent I can understand that, that's not true.
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 06:41:56 PM
Look, this isn't about law or definitions, it's about some people struggling with the way that war scrambles ideological precepts designed to maintain a veil of innocence.
I'm no expert, but that looks like obfuscation to me.
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 24, 2022, 06:51:58 AM
Putin is being backed into a corner now and he's certainly not going to admit defeat, so the only thing left is nuclear warfare.
Not quite, there are chemical and biological weapons to be considered, which were under discussion at the NATO summit.
Quote from: Florestan on March 24, 2022, 12:03:55 PM
Feel free to have a different one.
I do. The real one.
Quote from: amw on March 24, 2022, 03:48:06 PMBut it is still a form of warfare, legally speaking.
International law does not actually matter for great powers, unless,
sometimes, they are defeated.
If one power undertakes to deprive another of critical resources necessary for survival, then it is siege warfare, whatever legal nicety one attempts to attach to it. Regular people suffer most, but those engaging in siege tactics get to pretend otherwise. It's a great fiction.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 24, 2022, 06:57:30 PM
I'm no expert, but that looks like obfuscation to me.
I think people experience dissonance when they favor what is clearly war, so they will call it something else. Armed defense is war. It always has been. We don't need it to be redefined to shield delicate sensibilities. I very much doubt that Ukrainians think they are not in a war because they didn't start it. It's not their sensibilities that need coddling.
But if you really really need to shield yourself from the truth you could call it a Special Military Operation. There, all better now?
Quote from: drogulus on March 24, 2022, 06:41:56 PM
Look, this isn't about law or definitions, it's about some people struggling with the way that war scrambles ideological precepts designed to maintain a veil of innocence. War is what the other side does, and if the defense is justified it can't be called war. Attitudes like this have cost countless Ukrainian lives because NATO wasted months proving its innocence of any intention of providing adequate aid until after the war began.
Whereas your attitude of diluting what is happening in Ukraine by claiming the same thing is happening in NATO does you little credit.
If NATO is at war, where are the dead soldiers? Where are the dead and displaced civilians? Where are the shelled buildings? Where is the rubble? The fires?
If you start appropriating the same word for the sideline stuff, you frankly risk trivialising what goes on in an actual war. Trying to get some kind of advantage is not inherently a "war" no matter how much people appropriate military language for all sorts of actions where a shot is never fired.
And most of the time the way that people take metaphors of "battles" and so on doesn't really matter. We know these are expressions, not literal. But here? Now? When we are talking about a real-life situation where lives are being lost and cities wrecked? It matters. Frankly it feels to me like a bit of an insult to Ukraine.
Lots of povs being displayed, and perhaps they all have value to some extent. In the main, however:
Quote from: Todd on March 24, 2022, 07:54:37 PM
I do. The real one.
If you mean that the war ended in total, disastruous defeat of the French Army, you are correct. What I mean is that Napoleon occupying Moscow militarily can be seen as a French victory over the Russians, albeit a temporary one and the virtual non-combat of Russian Army notwithstanding.
What If Russia Makes a Deal?
How to End a War That No One Is Likely to Win (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-23/what-if-russia-makes-deal?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=What%20If%20Russia%20Makes%20a%20Deal?&utm_content=20220325&utm_term=FA%20This%20Week%20-%20112017)
Quote from: Liana Fix and Michael KimmageThe transatlantic alliance can dictate nothing to Putin. It can only assist Ukraine in navigating its way to a probably unsatisfactory peace. This humbling reality must be the starting point for policy and diplomacy.
Quote from: Todd on March 25, 2022, 05:45:53 AM
What If Russia Makes a Deal?
How to End a War That No One Is Likely to Win (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-03-23/what-if-russia-makes-deal?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=twofa&utm_campaign=What%20If%20Russia%20Makes%20a%20Deal?&utm_content=20220325&utm_term=FA%20This%20Week%20-%20112017)
This sounds strange, given Crimea's mineral resources.
QuoteAlso, Crimea may matter less to Ukrainians than other parts of the country currently under Russia's partial control, which could make a de facto acceptance of Russian control easier.
By the way, when did this happen?
QuotePutin has signaled that he might accept Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's government as a legitimate counterpart in negotiations.
The title of this thread is "Europe at War". So far it looks like Putin doesn't have the conventional means to extend the war beyond Ukrainian territory, and NATO is pursuing a policy designed to aid Ukraine as much as it can do without having to fight outside Ukraine. I take it the recent meeting was concerned with the potential introduction of chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons by Russia.
Quote from: drogulus on March 25, 2022, 06:34:55 AM
The title of this thread is "Europe at War".
As I said before, the title is not right.
War in Europe is more like it.
Counterattack news: It looks like the Russian forces around Kyiv have retreated towards a defensive position. Are they awaiting reinforcements or is this just the least worst option given that Putin can't admit defeat?
Finland is buying 64 F-35s. Weapons purchases indicate facts about military posture going forward. Finland wants maximum integration with allied air forces. They could have chosen any one of a number of alternatives, but Finland decided to opt for a plane that's much harder to shoot down than any other plane they could buy.
I read that Biden has promised the U.S. will provide 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe by years end, and is talking about reaching 50 billion cubic meters per year. That would displace about 1/3 of what Russia currently supplies. Even Texans should be pleased with Biden, who has given approval to a big natural gas export station on the Gulf Coast.
This is an example of an act of war.
America Thinks the War Is About Ukraine. Russia's Neighbors Disagree. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/opinion/nato-russia-poland-europe.html)
This divergence exposed a sharp divide in how Eastern and Western NATO member states view the war in Ukraine. For Western countries, not least the United States, the conflict is a disaster for the people of Ukraine — but one whose biggest danger is that it might spill over the Ukrainian border, setting off a global conflict.
For Central and Eastern European countries, it's rather different. These neighbors of Russia tend to see the war not as a singular event but as a process. To these post-Soviet states, the invasion of Ukraine appears as a next step in a whole series of Russia's nightmarish assaults on other countries, dating back to the ruthless attacks on Chechnya and the war with Georgia. To them, it seems foolhardy to assume Mr. Putin will stop at Ukraine. The danger is pressing and immediate.
While the West believes it must prevent World War III, the East thinks that, whatever the name given to the conflict, the war against liberal democratic values, institutions and lifestyles has already started. Both positions have merit.
Quote from: Stephen Kotkin
I have only the greatest respect for George Kennan. John Mearsheimer is a giant of a scholar. But I respectfully disagree. The problem with their argument is that it assumes that, had NATO not expanded, Russia wouldn't be the same or very likely close to what it is today. What we have today in Russia is not some kind of surprise. It's not some kind of deviation from a historical pattern. Way before NATO existed—in the nineteenth century—Russia looked like this: it had an autocrat. It had repression. It had militarism. It had suspicion of foreigners and the West. This is a Russia that we know, and it's not a Russia that arrived yesterday or in the nineteen-nineties. It's not a response to the actions of the West. There are internal processes in Russia that account for where we are today.
I would even go further. I would say that NATO expansion has put us in a better place to deal with this historical pattern in Russia that we're seeing again today. Where would we be now if Poland or the Baltic states were not in NATO? They would be in the same limbo, in the same world that Ukraine is in. In fact, Poland's membership in NATO stiffened NATO's spine. Unlike some of the other NATO countries, Poland has contested Russia many times over. In fact, you can argue that Russia broke its teeth twice on Poland: first in the nineteenth century, leading up to the twentieth century, and again at the end of the Soviet Union, with Solidarity. So George Kennan was an unbelievably important scholar and practitioner—the greatest Russia expert who ever lived—but I just don't think blaming the West is the right analysis for where we are.
RTWT here: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin (https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin)
Quote from: drogulus on March 25, 2022, 06:51:53 AM
Counterattack news: It looks like the Russian forces around Kyiv have retreated towards a defensive position. Are they awaiting reinforcements or is this just the least worst option given that Putin can't admit defeat?
Finland is buying 64 F-35s. Weapons purchases indicate facts about military posture going forward. Finland wants maximum integration with allied air forces. They could have chosen any one of a number of alternatives, but Finland decided to opt for a plane that's much harder to shoot down than any other plane they could buy.
If true, the Finns may be severely disappointed.
The deficiencies of the F-35 have been argued over for years, but a fairly recent summing up of some of the more serious problems ( and the DoD's attempts at concealment ) can be found here:
https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2022/03/f-35-program-stagnated-in-2021-but-dod-testing-office-hiding-full-extent-of-problem/?utm_term=national+security&utm_campaign=social&utm_source=pogotwitter&utm_medium=link&utm_content=live
The main disadvantage of F-35 except its (over?-) complicated technique and expensiveness, is that of it having limited ability to maneuver, compared to other airplanes such as Gripen or MIGs. Hard to see that as not a bad thing in relation to anti-aircraft missiles.
Ukrainian refugees prognosis & policy for DK adjusted upwards to now 100,000.
Number of Russians applying for asylum also went up, March saw more than all of 2021 (it was just 25 persons though).
Quote from: LKB on March 25, 2022, 07:49:11 AM
If true, the Finns may be severely disappointed.
The deficiencies of the F-35 have been argued over for years, but a fairly recent summing up of some of the more serious problems ( and the DoD's attempts at concealment ) can be found here:
https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2022/03/f-35-program-stagnated-in-2021-but-dod-testing-office-hiding-full-extent-of-problem/?utm_term=national+security&utm_campaign=social&utm_source=pogotwitter&utm_medium=link&utm_content=live
Why the F-35 is at the top of the shopping list for militaries in Europe (https://www.businessinsider.com/militaries-in-europe-are-buying-the-f35-fighter-jet-2022-2)
I don't think the development troubles for the plane are secret from the many countries that are flying it or will soon.
I'm pro-refugee for Ukrainians and Russians, the more the better IMO. Letting Russian conscripts know there are several most excellent countries that would accept them is a smart move. For the US leading by example is even more smart.
Quote from: drogulus on March 25, 2022, 09:06:06 AM
Why the F-35 is at the top of the shopping list for militaries in Europe (https://www.businessinsider.com/militaries-in-europe-are-buying-the-f35-fighter-jet-2022-2)
I don't think the development troubles for the plane are secret from the many countries that are flying it or will soon.
There is one ray of hope, apparently it will be at least four years before the planes are actually delivered. So there's time for at least some of the software bugs to be addressed, assuming Russia doesn't swallow up Finland first.
So now Russia is signalling it's protecting Donbass. Denazification goes down the memory hole I guess. It might serve as a basis for talks, ceasefire etc.
Maybe it's up to Ukraine to call the shots, and the US/NATO are not pulling strings for a charismatic puppet. Putin and his -ists could be getting it wrong.
Quote from: LKB on March 25, 2022, 09:34:33 AM
There is one ray of hope, apparently it will be at least four years before the planes are actually delivered. So there's time for at least some of the software bugs to be addressed, assuming Russia doesn't swallow up Finland first.
Every iteration of F-35 software is better than the last one. Buyers know what they are getting.
If Russia attacks Finland they will have to deal with Finnish Hornets, a plane that is as good as anything Russia can put in the air with the possible exception of the SU-57.
Biden says Nato 'will respond in kind' if Putin uses chemical weapons in Ukraine (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veytybY5oLw)
Quote from: absolutelybaching on March 25, 2022, 07:20:42 AM
'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
(* chortle *)
How Russia will die (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw)
Oh, shit.....
Quote from: drogulus on March 25, 2022, 12:46:01 PM
How Russia will die (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw)
Oh, shit.....
Pardon, but who the heck is the poster? I saw this: "I am a Sydney based video editor who is studying Geopolitics.
Includes lectures, interviews, video essays and articles about the fascinating world of Geopolitics.
This person also says: "I use podcasts and Google Earth Studio plus infographics to make learning about Geopolitics more fun and enjoyable to watch.
You can support this work on Patreon"
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 25, 2022, 02:22:48 PM
Pardon, but who the heck is the poster? I saw this: "I am a Sydney based video editor who is studying Geopolitics.
Includes lectures, interviews, video essays and articles about the fascinating world of Geopolitics.
This person also says: "I use podcasts and Google Earth Studio plus infographics to make learning about Geopolitics more fun and enjoyable to watch.
You can support this work on Patreon"
PD
I think he is best known for a book a few years ago predicting American disconnection from a more chaotic world.
American disinterest in the world means that American security guarantees are unlikely to be honored. Competitions held in check for the better part of a century will return. Wars of opportunism will come back into fashion. History will restart. Areas that we have come to think of as calm will seethe as countries struggle for resources, capital, and markets. For countries unable to secure supplies (regardless of means), there is a more than minor possibility that they will simply fall out of the modern world altogether. If you combine that with his views on Russia and China everything is about to die. Empires exist to a large extent to oppose other empires. I would liken it to the Bronze Age collapse, which was also linked to climate change and mass migration.
The former PM of Finland is saying the country will apply for NATO membership soon as opinion polls there have shifted dramatically in favor of it. Is this what Putin expected?
Quote from: milk on March 25, 2022, 06:54:23 PM
The former PM of Finland is saying the country will apply for NATO membership soon as opinion polls there have shifted dramatically in favor of it. Is this what Putin expected?
I expect Sweden to make a similar move. The security situation in the Baltic Sea has been precarious for decades, with the Swedes chasing Russian submarines in their territorial waters at multiple occasions. I also expect, further down the line, a western demand for a full demilitarisation of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad (Köningsberg).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOwQ7X3X0AAq-cB?format=jpg&name=small)
So the Russians have now supposedly completed the first phase of their " special operation ", and will now concentrate on eastern Ukraine ( translation: " We got beat like a drum for our incompetence, so we're fleeing back to friendlier territory " ).
Medvedev also reiterated their willingness to use nuclear weapons first in some circumstances.
They're also sending in more mercenaries, but apparently those deployed thus far haven't exhibited impressive performance.
Quote from: Que on March 26, 2022, 12:09:01 AMI also expect, further down the line, a western demand for a full demilitarisation of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad (Köningsberg).
De rigueur provocation.
West assails Russian 'barbarism' as Ukrainians shelter from bombardment (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/invasion-milestone-ukraine-urges-solidarity-western-leaders-gather-2022-03-24/)
George Creel would surely approve.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 06:51:40 AM
De rigueur provocation.
Why, of course, it's always the West that provokes Russia, never the other way around.
Btw, have you read the Stephen Kotkin interview I linked to, just a few posts above?
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 08:01:32 AMWhy, of course, it's always the West that provokes Russia, never the other way around.
Russia provokes The West. The West provokes Russia.
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 08:01:32 AMBtw, have you read the Stephen Kotkin interview I linked to, just a few posts above?
Just the quoted bit. I disagree with it. The notion that internal Russian processes account for the current state of affairs is false on its face. Ultimately, most articles, books, lectures, etc that attempt to portray various non-Western actors as bad guys suffer from a few standard maladies. First, they are almost all culturally biased, and the overwhelming majority are propounded by native-born Westerners or adopted Westerners, and cannot escape the viewpoint that there is something universal and true in Western concepts, ideas, etc. Second, and practically far more important from an American standpoint, the logic of NATO expansion and Western collective security relies upon notions heavily informed by Cold War logic, now outdated relative strategic threats facing the US (eg, Russia does not pose anywhere near the strategic challenge China does), and the proper role of the US in providing security for lesser powers. NATO was formed to counter the threat of the USSR, an ideological power that in the 40s, 50s, and 60s did offer an alternative social, political, and economic order to the democratic and capitalist West. Hence, the expansion of social welfare systems and state control of certain segments of national economies (the commanding heights, to use a little Ulyanov), which have receded in relative terms since the 70s.
When that threat abated, NATO should have been dissolved, not expanded. It is clear that Russia does not present the same type of challenge that the USSR did, and one can read that on this very forum, and see it in the propaganda/press coverage currently offered by so many corporate press outlets. Russia is struggling, failing, close to collapse or some other awful outcome, etc. The very rhetoric used to demonize Russia right now acts not as a rationale to further strengthen collective security, but rather it shows why the US can and should reduce commitments to Europe. The US should not devote more resources to a floundering enemy; the US should devote resources to increasingly powerful enemies.
One could argue that NATO is too successful to exist. It's kind of a weak argument, though, as long as Russia can do as much damage as it intends to do and is doing. The Russian economy is pitifully small, but the percentage of GDP devoted to the military is far higher than any other in Europe. Fortunately a great deal of that money has been wasted or stolen.
I think Europe is not floundering to the extent the US should somehow write it off. Russia can flounder plenty and still be a menace. The Euro economy is about the same size as the US, and the level of cooperation between the currency empires is very high. Political and economic cooperation being what it is, military cooperation follows.
We are witnessing a historical reversal where Russia is propped up by China instead of the other way. The countries remain linked at the level of strategy. IMV China is shocked to discover Russian weakness, NATO strength and it's own inevitable decline. China is the workshop of the world it claims to despise, but the pretense that it has the upper hand is not looking so good now. It's a point I've been making since before it became as obvious as it presently is.
Despite the usual level of confusion the US alliance system is doing what it's supposed to do for the US and nations on the Atlantic and Pacific sides that show no eagerness to be done with it. When that ceases to be the case the system will wither away.
Quote from: Que on March 26, 2022, 12:09:01 AM
I expect Sweden to make a similar move. The security situation in the Baltic Sea has been precarious for decades, with the Swedes chasing Russian submarines in their territorial waters at multiple occasions. I also expect, further down the line, a western demand for a full demilitarisation of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad (Köningsberg).
Last November Sweden took delivery of the US made Patriot air defense missile system.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 08:35:29 AM
Russia provokes The West. The West provokes Russia.
Just the quoted bit. I disagree with it. The notion that internal Russian processes account for the current state of affairs is false on its face. Ultimately, most articles, books, lectures, etc that attempt to portray various non-Western actors as bad guys suffer from a few standard maladies. First, they are almost all culturally biased, and the overwhelming majority are propounded by native-born Westerners or adopted Westerners, and cannot escape the viewpoint that there is something universal and true in Western concepts, ideas, etc. Second, and practically far more important from an American standpoint, the logic of NATO expansion and Western collective security relies upon notions heavily informed by Cold War logic, now outdated relative strategic threats facing the US (eg, Russia does not pose anywhere near the strategic challenge China does), and the proper role of the US in providing security for lesser powers. NATO was formed to counter the threat of the USSR, an ideological power that in the 40s, 50s, and 60s did offer an alternative social, political, and economic order to the democratic and capitalist West. Hence, the expansion of social welfare systems and state control of certain segments of national economies (the commanding heights, to use a little Ulyanov), which have receded in relative terms since the 70s.
When that threat abated, NATO should have been dissolved, not expanded. It is clear that Russia does not present the same type of challenge that the USSR did, and one can read that on this very forum, and see it in the propaganda/press coverage currently offered by so many corporate press outlets. Russia is struggling, failing, close to collapse or some other awful outcome, etc. The very rhetoric used to demonize Russia right now acts not as a rationale to further strengthen collective security, but rather it shows why the US can and should reduce commitments to Europe. The US should not devote more resources to a floundering enemy; the US should devote resources to increasingly powerful enemies.
Be it as it might be, I have one single question for you:
How come that each and every single nation which Russia subjugated, the very moment they were allowed to make their own free will choice, they chose NATO and EU?
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 08:35:29 AM
practically far more important from an American standpoint
What I infer from your American standpoint is that, as long as Russia will never threaten America, they (Russia, that is) can do whatever they want to whomever they want.
If I'm wrong, please correct me.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 08:35:29 AM
It is clear that Russia does not present the same type of challenge that the USSR did
What world are you living in, I wonder?
Russia is far more dangerous today than the USSR ever was, rhetorically speaking.
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 10:51:15 AMWhat world are you living in, I wonder?
The real world. Russia does not pose the same threat the USSR did.
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 10:30:50 AMHow come that each and every single nation which Russia subjugated, the very moment they were allowed to make their own free will choice, they chose NATO and EU?
Because Russia is autocratic and violently oppressive.
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 10:44:54 AMWhat I infer from your American standpoint is that, as long as Russia will never threaten America, they (Russia, that is) can do whatever they want to whomever they want.
If I'm wrong, please correct me.
You are wrong. Russia cannot be allowed to directly attack America or material American economic or security interests physically without repercussion. (I differentiate this from so-called "cyberwarfare".) So, Russia would not be able to freely attack the UK or France or Germany, say. If/when Russia attacks countries or regions where the US does not have material interests, responses could range from UN speeches to token or perhaps worse sanctions of sorts, though preferably not of the self-harming variety that have been imposed recently. Maybe the US and NATO allies which can effectively field weapons systems can engage in some saber-rattling (eg, B52 flights near Russian airspace). No one anywhere, on this forum or elsewhere, has provided a substantive explanation as to how the Baltic nations or even Ukraine represent a material economic or security interest for the US.
Biden says of Putin: 'For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power' (https://www.npr.org/2022/03/26/1089014039/biden-says-of-putin-for-gods-sake-this-man-cannot-remain-in-power)
Regime change is back in vogue. I am certain the Chinese are watching.
Quote from: LKB on March 26, 2022, 06:34:22 AM
So the Russians have now supposedly completed the first phase of their " special operation ", and will now concentrate on eastern Ukraine ( translation: " We got beat like a drum for our incompetence, so we're fleeing back to friendlier territory " ).
Russian forces haven't withdrawn from anywhere—at least according to social media, they're still on the ground as far as Makariv, still encircling Chernihiv and Kharkiv, etc. There's no evidence that Russia's strategy is actually changing. This makes perfect sense if one assumes (again, as I have from the beginning) that they never intended to take all of Ukraine or even to collapse the government, and maintain those invasion forces in the north of the country for the sole purpose of tying up Ukrainian troops and preventing them from reinforcing their Donbas frontline.
I'm therefore inclined to believe that they
are still on target for whatever their real objectives are, as opposed to the set of propaganda objectives Russian media have been pushing (regime change, denazification, preventing Ukraine from using biological weapons, etc), and that this is therefore not a good time to become complacent.
(Notably, Russia claims to have lost only something like 1300 troops in this press conference. US and other intelligence agencies claim it's lost closer to 7000-8000. Given the extent to which Russia has been relying on DPR/LPR militias, mercenaries, and other assorted
death squads valiant defenders of Chechnya against Islamic extremism, I suppose it's possible that both numbers are accurate from a certain point of view. But I would not be surprised if Russian firepower in Ukraine was significantly higher than has heretofore been visible, and that the choice to largely avoid urban warfare/trying to capture cities has been a conscious choice rather than a result of military defeats/losses.)
Russia can't freely attack Germany with eastern Europe allied with the West. Russia wants to expand beyond its present border and we know exactly where it wants to go, and how wonderful it would be for Putin if Europe accepted his assertion that NATO is obsolete or provocative or whatever. Of course defense is provocative. Everything is for the expansionist power, especially nondefense. That's super provocative.
Germany seems to get it. Poland surely does. Russia has explained everything that needs explaining.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 11:12:39 AM
Russia attacks countries or regions where the US does not have material interests
How about countries or regions where the US does have moral / principled interests, such as NATO countries?
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 10:51:15 AM
Russia is far more dangerous today than the USSR ever was
Agreed. Russia has gone rogue.
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 11:46:43 AM
How about countries or regions where the US does have moral / principled interests, such as NATO countries?
The US has treaty obligations, but that does not mean that the US would live up to all obligations. Nor does it mean it should. The US most certainly should not engage in full scale war with Russia to protect the Baltics, for instance. Expansion of NATO to the east was a potentially fatal decision. The US has reneged on treaties in the past, so just because a treaty exists does not mean the US will fulfill its obligations. This indicates some room for maneuver for America. Thankfully.
Note that it is essentially impossible to see NATO obligations as "moral".
Quote from: Que on March 26, 2022, 11:47:56 AM
Agreed. Russia has gone rogue.
What does 'gone rogue' mean?
Quote from: amw on March 26, 2022, 11:20:28 AM
I'm therefore inclined to believe that they are still on target for whatever their real objectives are, as opposed to the set of propaganda objectives Russian media have been pushing (regime change, denazification, preventing Ukraine from using biological weapons, etc), and that this is therefore not a good time to become complacent.
Their objective was to force a collapse of the Ukrainian government and install a Moscow puppet. Denazification and bioweapons fears were propaganda largely for internal consumption and foreign TrumPutinists like Tucker. Zelensky was supposed to run away along with the rest of the government while NATO expressed concern and lightly sanctioned. Everything went wrong.
The Donbass pivot is pathetic. It makes no sense.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 11:12:39 AM
Russia is autocratic and violently oppressive.
Stephen Kotkin is absolutely right in that Russia has always been autocratic and violently oppressive.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 11:55:55 AM
The US has treaty obligations, but that does not mean that the US would live up to all obligations. Nor does it mean it should.
What you imply is that the US is no better than Russia.
Now, I don't always trust Americans --- but I never trust Russians.
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 11:58:44 AM
Stephen Kotkin is absolutely right in that Russia has always been autocratic and violently oppressive.
Yes, so?
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 12:01:49 PM
What you imply is that the US is no better rhan Russia.
The US should pursue its interests first, those of its allies second. And not all allies are equal, not even close. That is the way of the world, always has been, and always will be. Whether that makes the US morally equivalent to Russia to various observers is of no concern.
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 12:01:49 PM
What you imply is that the US is no better than Russia.
Now, I don't always trust Americans --- but I never trust Russians.
Given how many Americans are cool with an autocrat wannabe, selective trust in America is indicated. 8)
Quote from: drogulus on March 26, 2022, 11:57:07 AM
Their objective was to force a collapse of the Ukrainian government and install a Moscow puppet.
I have yet to see any evidence for this claim, regardless of whether it comes from Putinists or from paranoid Westerners. If Russia actually had the capacity to do this one imagines they would have done it by now.
Quote from: amw on March 26, 2022, 01:17:47 PM
I have yet to see any evidence for this claim, regardless of whether it comes from Putinists or from paranoid Westerners. If Russia actually had the capacity to do this one imagines they would have done it by now.
They quite clearly thought they had the capacity, and then when Zelensky and co. didn't run away like the Afghans they tried multiple times to kill him.
Do you think Russia would hold free and fair elections after they killed everyone they tried to kill? What kind of evidence do you need that you don't have?
Quote from: Florestan on March 26, 2022, 11:46:43 AM
How about countries or regions where the US does have moral / principled interests, such as NATO countries?
Please clear some space in your inbox.
AGAIN!
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 11:55:55 AM
Note that it is essentially impossible to see NATO obligations as "moral".
Breaking a treaty freely undertaken is inconsistent with The Categorical Imperative.
Quote from: amw on March 26, 2022, 01:17:47 PM
I have yet to see any evidence for this claim, regardless of whether it comes from Putinists or from paranoid Westerners. If Russia actually had the capacity to do this one imagines they would have done it by now.
That stands out even in this thread as weak analysis.
How do you "denazify" a country without removing the government? Isn't "denazification" the kind of rationale you'd expect for Russia to install a toady regime?
For myself, I'm not so mean spirited that I refuse to understand the plain message Putin sends to the world. I read him loud and clear.
Timothy Snyder on Ezra Klein's podcast with a large number of opinions and perspectives I haven't encountered elsewhere:
Timothy Snyder on the Myths That Blinded the West to Putin's Plans (https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zaW1wbGVjYXN0LmNvbS84MkZJMzVQeA/episode/ODMxMjI1OGQtZWU3Ny00NGI4LWFmYjAtZGI5MTczOGZjMDll?sa=X&ved=0CA0QkfYCahcKEwjgzNaq8OT2AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ)
also in transcript form via New York Times:
Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Timothy Snyder (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-timothy-snyder.html)
Quote from: drogulus on March 26, 2022, 02:14:32 PM
They quite clearly thought they had the capacity, and then when Zelensky and co. didn't run away like the Afghans they tried multiple times to kill him.
Do you think Russia would hold free and fair elections after they killed everyone they tried to kill? What kind of evidence do you need that you don't have?
amw seems to think — or just claims — that 40 mile long line of armor doubly decimated on the way to Kyiv was just a diversion. Also seems willing to accept Russian estimates of their own casualties.
It is imperative that Russia search the entirety of Ukraine for evidence of radiation from the secret nuclear program run by the fascists, because we know such facilities are not located in the Donbass region.
https://www.youtube.com/v/Kp8IzBClYuo
This is what the Russian people are being told. Russia must search everywhere (even the west!) to justify being everywhere.
I thought that President Biden made a good speech in Warsaw today - best I have heard from him.
Quote from: vandermolen on March 26, 2022, 03:37:13 PM
I thought that President Biden made a good speech in Warsaw today - best I have heard from him.
Yes.
Quote from: drogulus on March 26, 2022, 02:14:32 PM
They quite clearly thought they had the capacity, and then when Zelensky and co. didn't run away like the Afghans they tried multiple times to kill him.
Do you think Russia would hold free and fair elections after they killed everyone they tried to kill? What kind of evidence do you need that you don't have?
To determine the actual objectives of a war you generally need declassified government documents (which I don't expect us to ever see in Russia's case) or similar. To draw feasible conclusions about the objectives of a war you need to have some idea of both immediate and long-term effects. We have neither at the moment.
That said, while all that we
do have is speculation, it is somewhat interesting that prior to the current invasion, foreign policy and politics people rarely if ever floated the idea that Russia would topple Ukraine's government, or even had the military capacity to sustain a large invasion or occupation. Even when Russia's military buildup along the Ukrainian border started (late last year I believe), the "consensus" was that it was planning to invade and occupy territories near Donbas and Crimea, and people "in the know" seemed genuinely surprised (and, imo, rather inappropriately excited) when Russia attacked on a much broader series of fronts. Obviously, since then the new "consensus" has become that Russia is a massive threat and will cause global thermonuclear war etc. But the original assessment was probably more accurate.
I'll point out another comparison: Putin and his supporters regularly do give speeches about Zelensky being some kind of Nazi and how he must be removed at all costs or whatever. While there are claims that Russia has attempted to have him assassinated via hiring mercenaries, with all such attempts failing (obviously), there's a fairly straightforward tool major powers use these days for assassinating foreign enemies during times of war, which is the drone strike. We've seen videos of Russian drones destroying Ukrainian apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, etc., so we know they have this capability. They haven't used it against Zelensky or really any of his inner circle. A similar case has occurred in a rather different country: Syria. Presidents Obama and Trump, along with a number of other major political figures in the USA, regularly gave speeches about Bashar al-Assad being a threat to world peace who must be deposed before the US will agree to withdraw its forces from the country. It's been about eleven years by this point. US and Israeli forces maintained air superiority for most of that time. Assad remains un-drone-struck to this day.
Obviously, there are legal implications associated with assassinating a civilian leader, but for UNSC members international law is more of a suggestion anyway—and, again, the US killed plenty of lower-profile civilians in Syria, and Russia has killed plenty of lower-profile civilians in Ukraine. The explanation: for the USA, some leaked memos attributed to John Kerry suggest that despite American claims, they always intended for Assad to retain power, and simply wanted to make sure he was too weak to accomplish anything contravening American foreign policy, but not weak enough to leave the kind of power vacuum that could result in total civil collapse and threaten the security of Syria's US-allied neighbours (Israel, Jordan, Turkey). This "feels" accurate even if we don't have true confirmation. I think a similar assumption could be made with Ukraine, with Russia fearing a power vacuum on its border more than it fears an unfriendly regime, and mostly hoping to weaken the Ukrainian government without overthrowing it. But time will tell, I guess.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 26, 2022, 03:14:04 PMAlso seems willing to accept Russian estimates of their own casualties.
Not really, but I
could believe that only ~1300 of Russia's KIA were regular RuAF servicemen, with the remaining several thousand-ish being mercenaries and militias.
Of course, we all know that we cannot call it a defeat, unless we have access to classified Russian docs ...
Jennifer Rubin: Russia's actual defeat — not simply a partial victory or one without subjugation of Ukraine — is in the realm of reality. Russia seems to be turning from Kyiv, focusing on the Donbas, two regions of which were under control of Putin surrogates before the invasion. In other words, Putin may soon realize that his dream of rebuilding the Russian empire has failed, at least for now. If he's looking to claim a much smaller victory, count this as a true David and Goliath story, a remarkable triumph of a democratic people.
From a business perspective the West shouldn't ignore any of its markets, or allow them to be eaten piecemeal by the competition.
(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/tongue.gif) Quote from: amw on March 26, 2022, 04:12:28 PM
To determine the actual objectives of a war you generally need declassified government documents (which I don't expect us to ever see in Russia's case) or similar. To draw feasible conclusions about the objectives of a war you need to have some idea of both immediate and long-term effects. We have neither at the moment.
Why would we need to know the long term effects to determine objectives? The Russian can't hide them, because they are in plain sight. Even their lies about denazification reveal their objective is to remove the "NAZI drug addicts" and replace them with friendly faces. I'm content to leave long term judgment to historians, and determine objectives on the best available data. I don't see another option.
When a guy robs a bank it might be for the money but we won't know........awww forget it. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
This is an interesting interview with a former Putin advisor. He argues that sanctions will have no effect and that Putin only understands military resistance. He gives some interesting recent examples of countries fighting back against Russia and Putin backing down. There's lots of interesting points in this to consider. Question: What actions has Turkey already taken to oppose the Russian invasion? Answer below.
https://youtu.be/hl_nWwx2B7w (https://youtu.be/hl_nWwx2B7w)
* it closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 11:55:55 AMThe US most certainly should not engage in full scale war with Russia to protect the Baltics, for instance.
How should the U.S. respond to an invasion of Taiwan by China?
Quote from: milk on March 26, 2022, 04:50:43 PM
How should the U.S. respond to an invasion of Taiwan by China?
Depends on when it happens.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 05:15:52 PM
Depends on when it happens.
No, it doesn't.
The TRA stipulates that the US will provide material assistance to the Taiwanese which will enhance their ability to defend themselves. There is no requirement for the US to intervene directly in Taiwan's defense, and no other agreement requires such action.
Taiwan is densely populated, something like 34 million on the island iirc. When l was there in 1975, every high school had a rifle range and every male 18 or older served at least two years in the military. That requirement has since been eased somewhat, and can now be satisfied by serving in other capacities. But even so, those people have witnessed Tianamen Square and the subjugation of Hong Kong, as well as the genocidal policies impacting the Uyghurs. They're not likely to have any illusions regarding their fate under the communists.
Having been among them, if only for a few weeks, what struck me was how like Americans they were. Ten years behind the US in some ways, but committed to democracy and proud of their unique identity, while still acknowledging their cultural bonds with the mainland.
I don't worry about Taiwan, not for a second, as long as they have access to modern defenses. If the world is surprised at the ability of Ukraine to stymie Putin's Russia, l think they would be astonished at Taiwan's capability to hold off the PRC.
Quote from: amw on March 26, 2022, 04:12:28 PMObviously, there are legal implications associated with assassinating a civilian leader, but for UNSC members international law is more of a suggestion anyway
But for the US, Executive Orders 11905, 12036, and 12333 are binding. A sitting president may try to issue a new order overriding them, but that is always easier said than done.
Quote from: amw on March 26, 2022, 04:12:28 PMThe explanation: for the USA, some leaked memos attributed to John Kerry suggest that despite American claims, they always intended for Assad to retain power, and simply wanted to make sure he was too weak to accomplish anything contravening American foreign policy, but not weak enough to leave the kind of power vacuum that could result in total civil collapse and threaten the security of Syria's US-allied neighbours (Israel, Jordan, Turkey). This "feels" accurate even if we don't have true confirmation. I think a similar assumption could be made with Ukraine, with Russia fearing a power vacuum on its border more than it fears an unfriendly regime, and mostly hoping to weaken the Ukrainian government without overthrowing it. But time will tell, I guess.
Destabilization is a tried and true policy choice.
Quote from: milk on March 26, 2022, 05:47:12 PM
how about tomorrow?
Perhaps start a new topic about a hypothetical war. Taiwan is not in Europe.
Quote from: LKB on March 26, 2022, 05:49:37 PMNo, it doesn't.
Yes, it does.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 05:55:50 PM
Yes, it does.
And again: no, it doesn't.
This is probably a case of you not knowing what you don't know.
Quote from: LKB on March 26, 2022, 06:03:15 PM
And again: no, it doesn't.
This is probably a case of you not knowing what you don't know.
Yes, it does. The US is currently dealing with the situation in the Ukraine, which limits some policy choices. A new thread about a hypothetical war is probably a good idea so people can go on about what may or may not happen if/when China invades Taiwan.
Quote from: LKB on March 26, 2022, 06:03:15 PM
And again: no, it doesn't.
This is probably a case of you not knowing what you don't know.
Nor, so far as I can tell, being able to care.
Now, let's not be unkind, Karl.
Todd does care... about his wallet. ::)
Quote from: LKB on March 26, 2022, 06:24:08 PM
Now, let's not be unkind, Karl.
Todd does care... about his wallet. ::)
That's the wrong wallet. Mine is the important one. It depends on the old and new world orders that maintain resilience and battle the pirates at the edge and not in the middle. Forward defense doesn't go obsolete.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 11:55:55 AM
The US has treaty obligations, but that does not mean that the US would live up to all obligations. Nor does it mean it should. The US most certainly should not engage in full scale war with Russia to protect the Baltics, for instance. Expansion of NATO to the east was a potentially fatal decision. The US has reneged on treaties in the past, so just because a treaty exists does not mean the US will fulfill its obligations. This indicates some room for maneuver for America. Thankfully.
Note that it is essentially impossible to see NATO obligations as "moral".
What does 'gone rogue' mean?
But I find the position that goes against the grain to be interesting. This argument here, if I understand it, is that it's not necessarily in the U.S.'s interest to act on its NATO promises. It's worth considering what this means.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 26, 2022, 06:17:11 PM
Nor, so far as I can tell, being able to care.
But it might be worthwhile to explore that position to better understand one's own. I think it is in the interest of the U.S. to defend its NATO partners. I want to ask, what are the repercussions of failing to act? I just want to make sure I understand my own position. Obviously, the U.S. is not in the business being the moral police but there should be red lines IMO. Where and why is the question. I also think the U.S. should do more to help the Ukraine. Or at least we should tell the Chinese that we will match any assistance they give Russia. I'm trying to follow different views of real experts to see what the best positions are on all sides.
Quote from: Todd on March 26, 2022, 11:55:55 AM
What does 'gone rogue' mean?
One could argue that all superpowers are rogue, in a way, since they are ultimately not bound by common rules and international law.
What
I mean with it is that Russia broke with the "frozen" status quo of the Cold War in which both parties were focused on maintaining a stable relationship between the two blocks. Instead, it decided a decade or so ago on an aggressive campaign to "defend" its sphere of influence and target western interests. Cyber warfare has been used in attempts to influence political events (elections, Brexit) and disrupt vital infrastructure.
And we all know why: Russia lost the Cold War and its sphere of influence fell apart, because it was founded on coercion and suppression. The "other" block offered European nations peace and security, freedom and prosperity. Unlike many commentators I don't think this was "our own" fault. But we probably missed important opportunities to manage our relationship with Russia beter. The idea that the Russian empire would just continue a process of quiet decline was probably naive.
In an item I saw a couple of days ago on NATO troops in Lithuania a Danish general was interviewed. His comment was that Russia had been waging war against the west for years, but we thought it was peace.... And now Russia is waging war by way of a fully fledged armed conflict, it is telling us there is no war and this is just a security operation.
For those thinking this is "just" a conflict between Russia and Ukraine: make no mistake. Russia is, and has been, waging war against all of us (in the west). Ultimately these are the last spasms of a dying empire and in the long term Russia won't be a threat on itself. But I agree with Florestan: right now Russia is extremely dangerous - Putin has nothing to lose, or it least he acts like it.
Further down the road I do see the risk of an Russia-China axis, in which Russia will become the junior partner - enhancing China's power globally. Both parties already agreed upon such an alliance, but I'm sure that in Putin's mind this would be on equal footing. This means that after all this we cannot afford alienating Russia even more. Somehow it has to be reconnected again to the western world in a restored, mutually beneficial partnership. But for that we probably need someone else in the Kremlin.
A musical reference:
Quote from: vandermolen on March 26, 2022, 03:37:13 PM
I thought that President Biden made a good speech in Warsaw today - best I have heard from him.
Do you think it's good that Biden's objective is not peace in Ukraine but regime change in Russia, i.e. the Ukrainians must suffer war until Putin is gone?
Either that, or Biden's a POTUS who doesn't mean what he says.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2022, 01:49:08 AM
Do you think it's good that Biden's objective is not peace in Ukraine but regime change in Russia, i.e. the Ukrainians must suffer war until Putin is gone?
Either that, or Biden's a POTUS who doesn't mean what he says.
That was another of Biden's infamous gaffes.... The White House has already back peddled on regime change.
But the damage has already been done: this is something you don't want to say, but you don't want to have to deny it either... ::)
It's old age, Biden is just too old for this office... But we already knew that.
Quote from: Que on March 27, 2022, 02:07:43 AM
That was one of Biden's infamous gaffes.... The White House has already back peddled on regime change.
But the damage has already been done: this is something you don't want to say, but you don't want to have to deny it either... ::)
It's old age, Biden is just too old for this office... But we already knew that.
I posted a link of a former Putin advisor interview above. It's interesting that he kept making the point over and over again that Putin succeeds by threatening the west, even with nuclear strikes, while the U.S. responds with fear and taking things off the table. Of course my first impulse is to take nuclear weapons off the table, direct military engagement and regime change, but I can at least consider what this Putin expert is saying. He's saying western powers tie their hands in dealing with Putin by giving up at the outset. He also lists examples of when the U.S. and other states used "hard power" or definitive action against Russia and saw it back down (in Syria). In those cases, Putin does backs down and never mentions it. He makes a case that there's no use making a policy out of fear since, he says, because it's like telling an intruder in your house that you won't use the baseball bat in your hands to to defend yourself no matter what.
Quote from: Que on March 27, 2022, 02:07:43 AM
That was another of Biden's infamous gaffes.... The White House has already back peddled on regime change.
But the damage has already been done: this is something you don't want to say, but you don't want to have to deny it either... ::)
It's old age, Biden is just too old for this office... But we already knew that.
I think it possibly is the US objective, and that it's also true that it's bad to have said it, because it plays to Putin's narrative.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2022, 02:45:36 AM
I think it possibly is the US objective, and that it's also true that it's bad to have said it, because it plays to Putin's narrative.
Without action to achieve an end, the word objective is meaningless and what one is left with is called a wish. And yes, it's stupid to have said it.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2022, 01:49:08 AM
Do you think it's good that Biden's objective is not peace in Ukraine but regime change in Russia, i.e. the Ukrainians must suffer war until Putin is gone?
Either that, or Biden's a POTUS who doesn't mean what he says.
He was stating a fact: until Putin is gone, Ukraine will not be out of danger.
Quote from: JBS on March 27, 2022, 04:32:20 AM
He was stating a fact: until Putin is gone, Ukraine will not be out of danger.
That is not what he stated.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2022, 05:31:17 AM
That is not what he stated.
I'm good with my President being truthful, whether it was intentional or not. I am 100% in favor of regime change in Russia, and if that's something you aren't supposed to say out loud, well I guess that's just some hard cheese for Vlad to chew on.
8)
Quote from: Que on March 26, 2022, 11:40:25 PMWhat I mean with it is that Russia broke with the "frozen" status quo of the Cold War in which both parties were focused on maintaining a stable relationship between the two blocks.
The blocs were frozen only until 1999, at which time NATO added three more countries. NATO then expanded three more times, most recently in 2020. The West has been actively ignoring a frozen status quo - something which, in fact, never existed. NATO expansion to Russian borders is intrinsically provocative. The perfect historical analogy to how western countries would react in a similar situation, the US in particular, is the Cuban Missile Crisis. No major power just stands by as its main foe places military power on its border. The US was ready to engage in nuclear war to protect itself. That sounds rather familiar today.
Quote from: Que on March 26, 2022, 11:40:25 PMFor those thinking this is "just" a conflict between Russia and Ukraine: make no mistake. Russia is, and has been, waging war against all of us (in the west). Ultimately these are the last spasms of a dying empire and in the long term Russia won't be a threat on itself. But I agree with Florestan: right now Russia is extremely dangerous - Putin has nothing to lose, or it least he acts like it.
Russia has been waging war against The West and The West has been waging war against Russia. The West has had sanctions in place for eight years. That is modern day siege warfare. Also, the US, in particular, has been very busy engaging in cyberwarfare against Russia - and other countries. The US has the most developed capacity in this domain and does not hesitate to use it, purportedly only against bad actors. The West, meaning primarily the US, does not hesitate to use its financial and diplomatic power to fund opposition parties, foment or aid movements (eg, the so-called "Color Revolutions", and I do not mean in the sense that they were or all US/Western organized operations, just that the US/West gleefully supports internal dissent of all varieties), and generally attempt to steer wayward states in the proper direction, namely one adhering to Western ideals.
It is true that Putin is dangerous – to some countries. The only security risk he poses to the US is through the Russian nuclear arsenal, and there is no current indication that even Putin is willing to engage in direct armed conflict with NATO, though he will most understandably engage in all other forms of warfare.
That is what The West is doing right now. As the current war amply demonstrates, Russian ability to project power on a truly large scale is limited. It poses no challenge at all to US naval power or global air supremacy. No other country or combination of countries currently does, either, it must be noted, but that does not offer all the guarantees that may imply. Russia is limited to small and mid-sized military excursions in its near abroad, or more targeted campaigns in select regions, like Syria. That does not mean that The West should adopt triumphalist outlooks and talk tough about expanding direct armed conflict with Russia, because that will end badly for almost everyone.
Quote from: Que on March 26, 2022, 11:40:25 PMFurther down the road I do see the risk of an Russia-China axis, in which Russia will become the junior partner - enhancing China's power globally. Both parties already agreed upon such an alliance, but I'm sure that in Putin's mind this would be on equal footing. This means that after all this we cannot afford alienating Russia even more. Somehow it has to be reconnected again to the western world in a restored, mutually beneficial partnership. But for that we probably need someone else in the Kremlin.
There is truth here, in particular the idea that The West will have to partner with Russia at some point to counter growing Chinese power as China expands its influence in central, east, southeast, and potentially south Asia. But Russia will not be an effective transactional ally if it is threatened by The West. The West must be willing to give something up. This is one of the critical shortcomings of The West: Western leaders (appear to) believe that their values are universal and right and that all other states must adhere to them. That is wrong. It is a crusader mentality (in the contemporary foreign policy analysis sense of the word crusader), something which especially afflicts the US at various times. It will inevitably lead to unnecessary conflict, political or economic or military.
Quote from: Que on March 27, 2022, 02:07:43 AMThat was another of Biden's infamous gaffes....
It was not a gaffe. He was reading the teleprompter.
While the President of the United States reads speeches with the most inflammatory rhetoric possible, and the kind sure to catch the attention not just of Russia but also of China, some more responsible and temperate leaders are willing to at least speak responsibly:
Turkey says world cannot 'burn bridges' with Moscow (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-says-world-cannot-burn-bridges-with-moscow-2022-03-27/)
France's Macron calls for restraint in words and actions regarding Ukraine conflict (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-calls-restraint-words-actions-regarding-ukraine-conflict-2022-03-27/)
Quote from: JupiterWe want to stop the war that Russia has launched in Ukraine without escalation -- that's the objective, if this is what we want to do, we should not escalate things -- neither with words nor actions
Maybe after Macron wins reelection he will sing a different tune.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2022, 01:49:08 AM
Do you think it's good that Biden's objective is not peace in Ukraine but regime change in Russia, i.e. the Ukrainians must suffer war until Putin is gone?
Either that, or Biden's a POTUS who doesn't mean what he says.
China has announced it wants peace in Ukraine. The "no to war, no to NATO" faction wants that, too.
All indications are Ukraine disagrees. They are paying a high cost to stay free of Russian domination and national obliteration.
I don't know what's behind Biden's statement. What's curious is not that Biden wants Putin to be removed, but that he would say so.
Here we really are in the dark. I'm not sure who Biden is talking to.
1)Western values--the idea of the individual human being must be free to think, to speak, to do--are universal values. The less a society adheres to that idea, the less it prospers materially, intellectually, spiritually.
2) Internal dissent is an integral part of democracy, and should always be allowed. Even if it comes from Trumpniks
3) Between the end of the Cold War and the rise of Putin, the West and Russia were not foes.
Quote from: JBS on March 27, 2022, 06:36:16 AM1)Western values--the idea of the individual human being must be free to think, to speak, to do--are universal values.
They are not universal.
Quote from: JBS on March 27, 2022, 06:36:16 AMThe less a society adheres to that idea, the less it prospers materially, intellectually, spiritually.
Correct, at least to the first two aspects of prosperity. The bit about spiritual prosperity is dubious.
Quote from: JBS on March 27, 2022, 06:36:16 AM2) Internal dissent is an integral part of democracy, and should always be allowed. Even if it comes from Trumpniks
In a liberal democracy, informed by Western values, yes.
Quote from: JBS on March 27, 2022, 06:36:16 AM3) Between the end of the Cold War and the rise of Putin, the West and Russia were not foes.
Nor were they allies.
Former DNI Clapper opined on CNN that Biden had a specific audience in mind. I think we (we know who we are) agree about that. It can be a "gaffe", too. Who says it can't? (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
Quote from: Todd on March 27, 2022, 06:12:15 AM
The blocs were frozen only until 1999, at which time NATO added three more countries. NATO then expanded three more times, most recently in 2020. The West has been actively ignoring a frozen status quo - something which, in fact, never existed. NATO expansion to Russian borders is intrinsically provocative. The perfect historical analogy to how western countries would react in a similar situation, the US in particular, is the Cuban Missile Crisis. No major power just stands by as its main foe places military power on its border. The US was ready to engage in nuclear war to protect itself. That sounds rather familiar today.
The "expansion" of a defensive alliance, especially when it is figurative (that is, does not involve the expanded control of territory by a centralized power) is not
intrinsically provocative. It's provocative in a particular circumstance to a particular audience.
Quote from: Todd on March 27, 2022, 06:12:15 AMRussia has been waging war against The West and The West has been waging war against Russia. The West has had sanctions in place for eight years. That is modern day siege warfare.
If by modern siege warfare you mean metaphorical siege warfare, then yes.
[/quote]
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 27, 2022, 07:09:29 AMThe "expansion" of a defensive alliance, especially when it is figurative (that is, does not involve the expanded control of territory by a centralized power) is not intrinsically provocative. It's provocative in a particular circumstance to a particular audience.
It is intrinsically provocative.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 27, 2022, 07:09:29 AMIf by modern siege warfare you mean metaphorical siege warfare, then yes.
It is modern siege warfare.
I think defense and nondefense are provocative in different ways. Nondefense is more likely to lead to war. Defense leads to outrage and "no to war, no to NATO". I prefer the latter.
The Japanese are watchful.
(https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/Gct3UZ5Wr6xv2Zc_YRTbFP6tguo=/1024x0/filters:format(jpg):quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/mco/DBEISTWTSRD3ZC5HC6EE5DTLWE.jpg)
The one on top is an amphibious landing ship that would be useful somewhere near Odessa (just a guess). The picture was taken around March 15-16.
I'm of the opinion that Russian warships off the southern coast of Ukraine need to be sunk. So, Admiral Nevelskov, don't be in a hurry.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2022, 01:49:08 AM
Do you think it's good that Biden's objective is not peace in Ukraine but regime change in Russia, i.e. the Ukrainians must suffer war until Putin is gone?
Either that, or Biden's a POTUS who doesn't mean what he says.
You're being rather harsh on a slip. As a result, I don't think any of your post gets traction.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 27, 2022, 03:53:42 AM
Without action to achieve an end, the word objective is meaningless and what one is left with is called a wish. And yes, it's stupid to have said it.
As I read elsewhere: more a prayer than a policy statement.
Okay, in a perfect world, the POTUS isn't someone prone to the odd gaffe. In a perfect world, the U.S. Electorate gets a better choice than between two white guys already past their prime, and one of whom is a racist autocrat wannabe. That was still a damned good speech. And if I find myself fixated upon a gaffe, maybe the problem is not Biden.
My favorite gaffe of all time is.....
"Wound my heart with a monotonous languor"
OK, that's just a wild speculation on my part, totally irresponsible and plusungood.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 27, 2022, 07:56:34 AM
You're being rather harsh on a slip. As a result, I don't think any of your post gets traction.
He was reading the teleprompter!
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2022, 08:41:16 AM
He was reading the teleprompter!
As if people reading a teleprompter never go off-script.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 27, 2022, 08:45:35 AM
As if people reading a teleprompter never go off-script.
Of course, but I just don't think that comment was unplanned and spontaneous. It's a really well crafted speech. That comment at the end `this man cannot remain in power' is the climax -- quite good oratory in fact.
I just played it back! Maybe you don't hear it that way -- here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqNPTzb5T7c
Listen to the speed change, the dynamic change, the body language -- he slows it down so everyone will hear that this man cannot remain in power loud and clear. It's the main message. If that's deviation from the autocue, I'm a Dutchman.
I don't think the TrumPutinist gaffes about the 2020 election are calls for assassination. Biden should not be in power. He must be removed, not necessarily legally but not violently as far as I can tell.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on March 27, 2022, 06:07:31 AM
I'm good with my President being truthful, whether it was intentional or not. I am 100% in favor of regime change in Russia, and if that's something you aren't supposed to say out loud, well I guess that's just some hard cheese for Vlad to chew on.
8)
Just quoting myself because I totally still agree with what I first said. I don't think it was a gaffe and I am in full agreement with it. I hope he doubles down on it.
😎
China's Sinopec pauses Russia projects, Beijing wary of sanctions (https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-china-russia-idCAKCN2LM18E/)
Beijing has repeatedly voiced opposition to the sanctions, insisting it will maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with Russia, and has refused to condemn Moscow's actions in Ukraine or call them an invasion.
But behind the scenes, the government is wary of Chinese companies running afoul of sanctions - it is pressing companies to tread carefully with investments in Russia, its second-largest oil supplier and third-largest gas provider.
Interesting.
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2022, 08:53:44 AM
If that's deviation from the autocue, I'm a Dutchman.
Welcome, my brother! :D
FSB agents avail themselves to some expensive watches:
Russia seizes Audemars Piguet watches in apparent retaliation for Swiss sanctions (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/russia-seizes-audemars-piguet-watches-in-apparent-retaliation-for-swiss-sanctions)
Are we close to large scale confiscations of the property of western companies?
Quote from: Que on March 27, 2022, 12:16:04 PM
FSB agents avail themselves to some expensive watches:
Russia seizes Audemars Piguet watches in apparent retaliation for Swiss sanctions (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/russia-seizes-audemars-piguet-watches-in-apparent-retaliation-for-swiss-sanctions)
Are we close to large scale confiscations of the property of western companies?
They're already doing it so it seems to be beyond close. 2 or 3 weeks ago they announced that any western business that left the country would forfeit all their holdings. Companies will whine but if they couldn't take the loss they wouldn't have left to start with.
🤠😎
What happens when the new Russian regime tries to get desperately needed foreign investment? How's that going to work?
Quote from: drogulus on March 27, 2022, 02:20:44 PM
What happens when the new Russian regime tries to get desperately needed foreign investment? How's that going to work?
Then they'll call Bejing or New Dehli, at least that seems to be Putin's plan. Might even work...?
Quote from: Que on March 27, 2022, 02:43:19 PM
Then they'll call Bejing or New Dehli, at least that seems to be Putin's plan. Might even work...?
That, plus after hostilities end and a fairly short period of time has elapsed (a few years or so, less for critical extractive industries), sanctions have been removed or reduced to acceptable levels, and people have moved on, some companies will venture back into Russia to make some tidy profits in select sectors. Nationalizations occur from time to time, as do wars. It is unlikely that the future business environment returns to whatever the good old days may have been, but profits must always be made, and practices will adjust.
Quote from: Que on March 27, 2022, 02:43:19 PM
Then they'll call Bejing or New Dehli, at least that seems to be Putin's plan. Might even work...?
Putin doesn't have a plan. He never thought this would happen. The question is what Russia will do to persuade investors that it's safe to return. Russia can barely function without help. China will do the minimum if it does anything. They have their own decline to manage. Some companies will see an opportunity, but many companies won't return until their confiscated property is returned to them.
China can do one big thing to invest in Russia, and its the sort of thing that happens in a country that loses a war. Japan, too, may seek opportunities. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/evil.gif)
Fun fact: Ukraine now has more tanks than they had when the war began.
The notion is widespread that the US/NATO is using Ukraine to bleed Russia white by discouraging peace talks, ceasefire, whatever. I think it's likely that it's Zelensky that is bleeding Russia white and US/NATO is reluctant to get more involved than it is, so he's pissed. He's not pissed because the West is fighting to the last Ukrainian (the left luvvs that narrative), it's because they won't go as far as he wants to go.
Quote from: drogulus on March 27, 2022, 03:46:29 PM
Fun fact: Ukraine now has more tanks than they had when the war began.
The notion is widespread that the US/NATO is using Ukraine to bleed Russia white by discouraging peace talks, ceasefire, whatever. I think it's likely that it's Zelensky that is bleeding Russia white and US/NATO is reluctant to get more involved than it is, so he's pissed. He's not pissed because the West is fighting to the last Ukrainian (the left luvvs that narrative), it's because they won't go as far as he wants to go.
I agree. But it does seem ridiculous that they can't get Ukrainian pilots into Poland (or Germany if one enjoys a pointless complication) to fly the fighters back. And supplying all the anti-ship and antiaircraft armaments available should be a no-brainer as well.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 27, 2022, 04:16:38 PM
I agree. But it does seem ridiculous that they can't get Ukrainian pilots into Poland (or Germany if one enjoys a pointless complication) to fly the fighters back. And supplying all the anti-ship and antiaircraft armaments available should be a no-brainer as well.
Yes, that's how I see it. Zelensky wants victory then peace. Russia must never do this again. He appears to have wide support among the public, including the opposition in the parliament.
Counterattack news: The Ukes are advancing near Sumy, Kharkiv and Mariupol.
Tbf, if Ukraine could beat back Russian forces without being a member or official ally of NATO, that would demonstrate that there's limited need for NATO to exist in the first place, because the "Russian threat" is evidently not in fact much of a threat at all. So I doubt Western powers want that to happen either.
But as always I guess we'll see how things play out.
Quote from: amw on March 27, 2022, 05:36:30 PM
Tbf, if Ukraine could beat back Russian forces without being a member or official ally of NATO, that would demonstrate that there's limited need for NATO to exist in the first place, because the "Russian threat" is evidently not in fact much of a threat at all. So I doubt Western powers want that to happen either.
But as always I guess we'll see how things play out.
Some NATO nations do not have nukes. Russia does. There will be a NATO for quite some time to come.
Interesting interview with a purported military expert explaining in detail why the Russians aren't capable of controlling the skies over the Ukraine.
https://youtu.be/5-cxFQUkfac (https://youtu.be/5-cxFQUkfac)
Quote from: amw on March 27, 2022, 05:36:30 PM
Tbf, if Ukraine could beat back Russian forces without being a member or official ally of NATO, that would demonstrate that there's limited need for NATO to exist in the first place, because the "Russian threat" is evidently not in fact much of a threat at all. So I doubt Western powers want that to happen either.
But as always I guess we'll see how things play out.
Isn't it remarkable how every possible outcome proves with geometric logic how NATO is not needed!
NATO won the war without firing a shot. I might complain about the drip feed to Ukraine, but its a pretty damn impressive result.
Quote from: Todd on March 27, 2022, 07:13:28 AM
It is intrinsically provocative.
Dictionaries are excellent reference tools.
Quote from: Todd on March 27, 2022, 07:13:28 AMIt is modern siege warfare.
That's drama-queeneese for rough diplomacy. Modern siege warfare is what's happening in Mariupol. It's the kind where people die.
Quote from: drogulus on March 27, 2022, 04:36:11 PM
Yes, that's how I see it. Zelensky wants victory then peace. Russia must never do this again. He appears to have wide support among the public, including the opposition in the parliament.
I think he's right. Putin will only show up at the negotiating table when he realises that he is not just not winning, but losing. The way things are going, things can only get worse for Putin. It seems low morale is taken a toll on his troops, with reports of mutinies, surrenders and abandonment of equipment.
QuoteCounterattack news: The Ukes are advancing near Sumy, Kharkiv and Mariupol.
There was some news before of an assault to retake Kherson, haven't heard much about that.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 27, 2022, 06:40:09 PMDictionaries are excellent reference tools.
Yes.
Quote from: BasilValentine on March 27, 2022, 06:40:09 PMThat's drama-queeneese for rough diplomacy. Modern siege warfare is what's happening in Mariupol. It's the kind where people die.
The sanctions in place now are causing increasing harm to Russian citizens, more than to Putin or the so-called Oligarchs. The sanctions are designed to harm the general population. The sanctions in place also will impact the rest of the world, with the greatest impact to the poorest people, which has not escaped the President:
Ukraine invasion: Biden warns of significant food shortage risk following sanctions on Russia (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/ukraine-invasion-biden-warns-of-significant-food-shortage-risk-following-sanctions-on-russia/articleshow/90447961.cms)
As sanctions bite Russia, fertilizer shortage imperils world food supply (https://www.reuters.com/business/sanctions-bite-russia-fertilizer-shortage-imperils-world-food-supply-2022-03-23/)
Various academics, ethicists, etc have been writing about economic sanctions and how they are the modern equivalent of siege warfare since at least the 90s. Here's a recent article from Joy Gordon, who has been writing about the subject for decades:
Russia, Ukraine, and the Demise of Smart Sanctions (https://www.ethicsandinternationalaffairs.org/2022/russia-ukraine-and-the-demise-of-smart-sanctions/#author)
Quote from: Joy GordonWhat is striking about the sanctions against Russia is the complete abandonment of any legitimate claim to being "smart." Certainly, the language of "targeting" is used, and the sanctions on named individuals, such as Putin, convey the sense that the wrongdoer himself will suffer. However, everything about the many-layered sanctions regimes against Russia operates to the contrary. The old, "dumb," comprehensive sanctions, particularly the sanctions regime imposed on Iraq in the 1990s, were castigated for the ways in which they resembled siege warfare: ineffective because as resources dry up, whatever remains will be captured by the wealthy and political and military leaders; and unethical because those who are most vulnerable, such as infants and children, the elderly, the sick, and the poor, will have few options, and will struggle to survive. The damage is not indiscriminate. Rather, it is counter-discriminate. Those who suffer first, and worst, are those with the least responsibility for their state's policies; while those who suffer least and last are the powerful and the wealthy, the corrupt officials and black marketeers.
This is roughly what we have seen in the case of Russia. The narrative being put forward by the sanctioning countries is that Putin and the oligarchs in his inner circle are the ones feeling the sting of sanctions: "Officials are moving to seize their houses, yachts and private jets around the world. French officials on Thursday snatched the superyacht of Igor Sechin, the chief executive of Rosneft, the Russian state oil giant."3 The UK imposed measures on "Putin's closest circle, and wealthy Russians who enjoy high-rolling London lifestyles."4 But there are carve-outs for Russian energy exports, in particular, to avoid a crisis in the EU, which is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas, as well to avoid destabilizing global oil prices. Income will continue to flow to some of the wealthiest Russians with controlling interests in the country's major energy companies.
In addition, the sanctions are constructed in such a way as to ensure Western entities get what they need in certain areas. The ongoing sale of oil to multiple European countries is an obvious and well-known case, but the US Treasury has even seen fit to figure out a way to ensure that US financial institutions get repaid for a few more months:
(https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-inflation-worse-russia-defaults-debt/story?id=83369860Will%20US%20inflation%20get%20worse%20if%20Russia%20defaults%20on%20its%20debt?)
Quote from: Deirdre BoltonIn war times, there are myriad extra wrinkles. Due to the sanctions the West has placed against Russia, the country is isolated from most of the global banking system. The U.S. Treasury has offered Russia a loophole to pay its dollar-denominated debt until the end of May; it is unclear what happens after that.
The longer the sanctions regime carries on, the more regular and poor people around the world will suffer. Perhaps part of the strategy is to impose additional international pressure on Russia, but that will still result in the obvious suffering of people who have nothing to do with the war. But that is always the case with war. What is intriguing, though not new, is how all manner of people now choose to deny this reality.
In the circles of the Romanian conservative Right (which is different from, and opposed to, the Romanian liberal Right) the prevalent notions are that (1) Zelensky is just as guilty as Putin for prolonging the war, because he (Zelenski, that is) leads an armed resistance against Russians thus causing civilians to die and cities to be destroyed and (2) this is not Romania's war and we should be absolutely neutral. Both are fallacies.
(1) is all the more untenable as it comes from people who miss no opportunity to trumpet their patriotism and love of fatherland. Why, Zelensky is precisely a patriot who loves his fatherland and fight for it in words and deeds. What should he have done? Surrender Ukraine to Russians without shooting one single bullet? Well, I guess that's exactly what these Romanian "patriots" would do in case that, God forbid!, Russia attacked us --- I mean, those who would have not left the country immediately.
I firmly believe that the only genuinely patriotic Romanian policy today is to hold fast to NATO and EU, to liberal democracy, free market and civil liberties.
(2) is equally wrong. We are not, cannot and should not be neutral. First, we are part and parcel of NATO and EU so we should and would stand by their common policies. Second, we cannot be neutral between an aggressive and militaristic dictatorship and an imperfectly democratic country; between an invader and the invaded; between war criminals and civilians trying to save their lives by fleeing or to repel the invaders by naked hands. We are not part of the military conflict (nor is any other NATO and EU country), but we are part and parcel of the ideological, cultural, political and economic conflict. Ever since 1848 we rejected the Ottoman and Russian yoke and cast our lot with the West, for better or worse; and now when we are part and parcel of the West, the self-proclaimed "patriots" would like us to stay neutral between the West and Russia. No way!
Ukraine ready to discuss adopting neutral status in Russia peace deal, Zelenskiy says (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-prepared-discuss-neutrality-status-zelenskiy-tells-russian-journalists-2022-03-27/)
I checked in with Natasha, a Russian YTer I've followed for some time to learn about her life in the far east (Khabarovsk).
https://www.youtube.com/v/jJplFVLQ85M&t
Regarding sanctions on Russia, the decision has been made that Russians having nothing to do with the wars Putin starts has not been a positive thing and should be changed, preferably by Russians themselves, of course.
It's about 70 miles from NATO to St. Petersburg, and about 75 miles from NATO to Minsk. Given the alternative, we should give sanctions a try.
Ukraine will never be neutral between the invader and its informal allies. That said, an agreement on paper neutrality might save face and lives.
Quote from: Todd on March 28, 2022, 06:39:12 AM
Yes.
The sanctions in place now are causing increasing harm to Russian citizens, more than to Putin or the so-called Oligarchs. The sanctions are designed to harm the general population. The sanctions in place also will impact the rest of the world, with the greatest impact to the poorest people, which has not escaped the President:
Ukraine invasion: Biden warns of significant food shortage risk following sanctions on Russia (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/ukraine-invasion-biden-warns-of-significant-food-shortage-risk-following-sanctions-on-russia/articleshow/90447961.cms)
As sanctions bite Russia, fertilizer shortage imperils world food supply (https://www.reuters.com/business/sanctions-bite-russia-fertilizer-shortage-imperils-world-food-supply-2022-03-23/)
Various academics, ethicists, etc have been writing about economic sanctions and how they are the modern equivalent of siege warfare since at least the 90s. Here's a recent article from Joy Gordon, who has been writing about the subject for decades:
Russia, Ukraine, and the Demise of Smart Sanctions (https://www.ethicsandinternationalaffairs.org/2022/russia-ukraine-and-the-demise-of-smart-sanctions/#author)
In addition, the sanctions are constructed in such a way as to ensure Western entities get what they need in certain areas. The ongoing sale of oil to multiple European countries is an obvious and well-known case, but the US Treasury has even seen fit to figure out a way to ensure that US financial institutions get repaid for a few more months:
(https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-inflation-worse-russia-defaults-debt/story?id=83369860Will%20US%20inflation%20get%20worse%20if%20Russia%20defaults%20on%20its%20debt?)
The longer the sanctions regime carries on, the more regular and poor people around the world will suffer. Perhaps part of the strategy is to impose additional international pressure on Russia, but that will still result in the obvious suffering of people who have nothing to do with the war. But that is always the case with war. What is intriguing, though not new, is how all manner of people now choose to deny this reality.
Thanks for these links.
- Bellingcat seems to confirm earlier rumours: that Shoigu and possibly Putin, plus other Russian elite members, are currently staying in nuclear bunkers in the Ural. It has only been deduced via flight trackings though.
- Novaya Gazeta closing down after more warnings, at least during the current war.
- Carlsberg pulling out of Russia after nationalization rumours and public pressure in the West. They have 1/4 of the Russian beer market and will sell their business there (maybe almost 3 billion Euros value). Heineken pulling out as well.
- Russia introducing further entry restrictions for travellers from 'unfriendly nations' category.
- Abramovich and two Ukrainian peace talk members allegedly exposed of poisoning during talks in Kyiv (cf. Bellingcat). EDIT: US intelligence officially thinks that it was just indoor climate problems.
Colonel General Mizintsev, hero of Mariupol, turns on the charm.
https://www.youtube.com/v/h7jfjGvxhvI&t
Somehow Carlsberg and Heineken pulling out of Russia does not hit me in the same way as reading that Putin and his buddies have moved to nuclear bunkers behind the Ural mts.
Indeed, but the first rumours came already at the start of the invasion - if so, it had been prepared in advance. Maybe they'll stay there for years anyway, simply because of the level of paranoia, and be gradually forgotten ... ? That's one attractive option in such a scenario at least, though not very likely ...
Someone, seal the door!
Jonathan V. Last:
2. Regime Change
These three things are simultaneously true:
(1) There is no way to re-normalize Russia's place in the world until Putin is gone.
(2) America's strategic choices should be designed to make it harder for him to hold power.
(3) No one in the American government should say this out loud because doing so makes is easier for Putin to rally internal Russian opinion by framing the conflict not as "Putin against the world," but as "Americanskis against Russia."
Thus it was unhelpful when Lindsey Graham talked about having Putin assassinated a few weeks ago and it was unhelpful when Biden said this weekend: "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."
Not the end of the world. But unhelpful. It was good that the administration walked Biden's statement back. You and I can say that regime change is America's ultimate goal in Russia. Officials in the U.S. government should keep that talk behind closed doors.
Yet in toto, the administration's handling of this crisis remains solid. A month into the war:
>The NATO/EU alliance against Russia remains solid and unified.
>Sanctions on Russia are crushing its economy and inflicting tremendous pain on the country.
>The combined response has made the Chinese wary of holding hands too tightly with Putin and created the beginnings of a wedge between the two countries.
>The military aid pipeline has functioned well and given Ukrainians effective weaponry.
>The real-time intelligence pipeline from NATO to Ukraine is functioning well enough that Russian generals keep getting popped.
>Russian losses are staggering—far above what anyone predicted going into the conflict.
>Ukraine has held all major cities and even begun counter-offensives west of Kyiv.
>Putin's inner circle has lapsed into the dangerous realm of recriminations and disappearances.
>Belarus has thus far resisted involvement, contra Putin's wishes, because doing could destabilize Putin's sole in-theater ally.
>Despite threats, Putin has not escalated into the use of either chemical or nuclear weapons. He has not expanded the conflict to Moldova. And he has not struck into NATO, despite suggesting that he might do so.
>The Biden administration's handling of this crisis has not been perfect.
>But it is hard to see how Ukraine or the West could be in a better position than they are right now. And while most of the credit for this state goes to the Ukrainian people, a not-insignificant amount of credit should go to Biden's team, too.
Biden stands by saying Putin shouldn't stay in power: 'I'm not walking anything back' (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-stands-comments-putin-shouldnt-remain-power-m-not-walking-anythi-rcna21875)
Quote from: President of the United States Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.I was expressing my outrage. He shouldn't remain in power, just like bad people shouldn't continue to do bad things. But it doesn't mean we have a fundamental policy to do anything to take Putin down in any way.
I think most of the world will forgive Biden for saying what most of the world thinks.
Sure, it's not US policy to get rid of Putin. Russian policy makers will decide that. There's nothing wrong with having an opinion about it, though. Russians should understand the world they live in. Putin turned out to be really bad at that even by Russian standards.
Russia have No policy makets. Russia don't work that way. They have Putin.
Now, official Russian announcements about scaling down its military involvement in the Kyiv and Cernihiv regions drastically, 'to signal good will in the ongoing negotiation process'. Cernihiv is north-east from Kyiv and close to Chernobyl too.
Also, Russia is 'not against Ukraine's EU membership', a Russian negotiator said.
Ukraine seems to be more open for skipping NATO membership, but they'd have to change the constitution and do some sort of a referendum, whereas the majority of the public is currently for a membership.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 29, 2022, 05:20:28 AM
Now, official Russian announcements about scaling down its military involvement in the Kyiv and Cernihiv regions, 'to signal good will in the ongoing negotiation process'.
Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes... ;D
Quote from: Florestan on March 29, 2022, 05:22:15 AM
Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes... ;D
Yes, they are very, very short of credibility, and possess the opposite aplenty. But at least, this has been shown to everyone now.
Zelensky loses patience: Your weak sanctions, we are paying with life! (https://www.imalbania.com/kosova/zelensky-loses-patience-your-weak-sanctions-we-are-paying-with-life/)
Zelenskyy's acting background can come in handy, though ultimately it will not be effective in affecting policy. Surely he knows that Europeans will not cut off Russian hydrocarbon imports.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 29, 2022, 05:48:56 AM
Yes, they are very, very short of credibility, and possess the opposite aplenty. But at least, this has been shown to everyone now.
Apparently it's a good sign, yes.
In the same vein I just saw a title on a Romanian TV station:
Russian State Duma announces the special military operation is drawing to an end. I had no time to verify the news but God grant!
Russian rouble soars to 83 vs dollar before easing, stocks mixed (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/rouble-hits-one-month-high-vs-dollar-russian-stocks-regain-ground-2022-03-29/)
Looks like switching to mandating payments in rubles for hydrocarbons wasn't as catastrophic a move as some observers thought.
Surely the dollar will remain dominant. Well, here's a slightly different viewpoint:
Ukraine war accelerates the stealth erosion of dollar dominance (https://www.ft.com/content/5f13270f-9293-42f9-a4f0-13290109ea02)
Quote from: Barry EichengreenThus, we are already seeing movement towards a more multipolar international monetary system — just not the tripolar system dominated by the dollar, euro and renminbi anticipated by many observers.
Recent events are likely to accelerate diversification...
Quote from: The new erato on March 29, 2022, 04:23:37 AM
Russia have No policy makets. Russia don't work that way. They have Putin.
That's a big problem. Russians should do something about it.
Regarding NATO membership, I see a way forward. Membership will be conditional, and any hostile action by Russia will trigger it. Since the present regime is incapable of treating neighbors in a cooperative manner, Ukraine will join the club. If Russia discovers policy makers within its ranks, Ukraine can maintain a well armed neutrality.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 29, 2022, 05:20:28 AM
Now, official Russian announcements about scaling down its military involvement in the Kyiv and Cernihiv regions drastically, 'to signal good will in the ongoing negotiation process'. Cernihiv is north-east from Kyiv and close to Chernobyl too.
Also, Russia is 'not against Ukraine's EU membership', a Russian negotiator said.
Ukraine seems to be more open for skipping NATO membership, but they'd have to change the constitution and do some sort of a referendum, whereas the majority of the public is currently for a membership.
Hard to see the Ukrainian people against membership in NATO, given present circs.
Quote from: drogulus on March 29, 2022, 07:17:39 AM
That's a big problem. Russians should do something about it.
That requires a reversal of 500 years of history and clture.
Quote from: drogulus on March 29, 2022, 07:17:39 AM
That's a big problem. Russians should do something about it.
That's a big problem only for those Russians who subscribe to liberal democracy, free market and personal liberties --- ie, to Westernized / Westernizing Russians. Now, another big problem is that they have always been a tiny minority, they have always been too small and too weak a group to be able to effectively do something about it and they have always been overwhelmed by extremists and terrorists.
I urge you --- and anyone else, for that matter --- to read
Isaiah Berlin's
Russian Thinkers.
Quote from: The new erato on March 29, 2022, 07:31:06 AM
That requires a reversal of 500 years of history and clture.
Aye.
Just read on a Romanian TV station:
Chief Russian Peace Negotiator: We don't mind Ukraine's joining the EU.
Looks like today is the turning point. God grant!
Quote from: The new erato on March 29, 2022, 07:31:06 AM
That requires a reversal of 500 years of history and clture.
Yes, that's big. I think Nemtsov had a considerable following when Putin had him killed. I would not discount the modernized Russians, even though hundreds of thousands have fled.
Quote from: drogulus on March 29, 2022, 07:39:47 AM
I would not discount the modernized Russians, even though hundreds of thousands have fled.
Sooner or later Putin will be history (hopefully sooner) yet there'll be a cold day in hell before liberal Russians will gain the upper hand in Russian politics.
I said it before, I say it again: the best we can hope for, and from, Russia is a moderate autocracy with a widely accepted way of power shift --- ie, the restoration of Tsarism.
Quote from: Florestan on March 29, 2022, 07:46:31 AM
Sooner or later Putin will be history (hopefully sooner) yet there'll be a cold day in hell before liberal Russians will gain the upper hand in Russian politics.
Because, where Putin has a limited shelf life, the
mafiosi russi do not.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 29, 2022, 07:50:11 AM
Because, where Putin has a limited shelf life, the mafiosi russi do not.
This is probably THE one reason that has very little to do with historical Russia or with the USSR and everything to do with the contemporary world.
Cf.
Lenin's dictum:
The capitalists will sell us the rope with which to hang them.
I just had a second thought on that: Russian mafia is certainly dangerous but just as certainly has no interest whatever in a nuclear war. :-\
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 29, 2022, 07:27:39 AM
Hard to see the Ukrainian people against membership in NATO, given present circs.
Agree.
Maybe they'll try to somehow postpone some of the negotiating issues, in exchange for cease-fire, but for Russia, Ukraine going NATO would be a major admission of defeat. Would Russia then trade that for getting Crimea and parts of Donbass ? Doesn't seem likely.
I haven't seen any suggested, obtainable compromise yet. There is a strong nationalism in Ukraine, and many stick to claiming Crimea and the Donbass 'republics' as still belonging to Ukraine. Plus there is the problem of the Russian annexation breaking international law and stability, and the later Russian claim for even more of Donbass. But due to the situation in recent years, including 100s of 1000s Russians having moved to Crimea, and pro-Ukraine people having fled from there and from Donbass 'republics', local referendums, even with a long-lasting, preparing debate, would probably vote in favour for Russia now. Though likely not in the remaining Donbass areas.
A DMZ-like zone? The economy there is quite comprehensive and needs a boost, plus integration with the surrounding areas. A DMZ zone would likely not provide that.
There is no next generation of Putinists in Russia. He's surrounded himself with the old KGB guard.
I'm not predicting an instant transition. Russia doesn't have to become modern all at once. Consider that the present wave of repression is greater than the Gorbachev Soviet era as well as the '90s in Russia. It's also worse than the pre-2014 Putin era.
Let's be historical, OK? Losing a major war can kill a tyranny in the way it has done before, in Russia.
To reengage with the world some form of moderation will be needed. It happened in 1905-6, in 1917-18, 1989-91 and it seems likely to happen again. Liberal Russia will have influence, if not authority.
BTW, some are pointing to the 9th of May, with the traditional parades celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany, as a tempting date for Putin, for officially ending the war.
Quote from: drogulus on March 29, 2022, 08:23:59 AM
Losing a major war can kill a tyranny in the way it has done before, in Russia.
Well, yes, losing a major war killed a tyranny in Russia --- only to be replaced with an even greater, crueler, gruesomer tyranny.
If that's the historical precedent you rely upon, then God help!
Quote from: Florestan on March 29, 2022, 08:52:21 AM
Well, yes, losing a major war killed a tyranny in Russia --- only to be replaced with an even greater, crueler, gruesomer tyranny.
If that's the historical precedent you rely upon, then God help!
It's possible. I'm observing and making connections on valid evidence. Liberal movements have been aborted one way or another, however young Russians are connected to the wider world far beyond the degree they were in the past. Who will govern when the current crowd dies off? Who are the proto-tyrants? Russia will need to adapt and I judge they won't be satisfied with permanent pariah status. With reduced oil and gas income Russia will need to offer inducements to Western companies to build, operate and repair energy infrastructure they can't manage on their own. Some combination not yet in sight of authoritarian and democratic forces will contest for leadership.
Quote from: drogulus on March 29, 2022, 09:34:02 AM
Who will govern when the current crowd dies off?
Hopefully a more moderate one.
QuoteWith reduced oil and gas income Russia will need
That's a joke, right?
Quote from: Florestan on March 29, 2022, 09:46:05 AM
That's a joke, right?
It depends on how much lost Russian output can be replaced as prices rise and producers are motivated to ramp up. If Russia is forced to shut down the pipelines it will be a huge task to start back up.
More on the Russian oil nightmare:
https://www.youtube.com/v/Bm7cKB3Wczs
https://www.youtube.com/v/5Gcl1dO2_0s&t
I don't know if this guy is right. He does seem to be a disasterphile. At least he's thinking about the right things.
Oh, he also thinks China is fucked, therefore he's a genius. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
I'm following the negotiations, that seem more genuine, now Turkey acts as mediator and the Putin regime has switched the narrative in Russia to "liberating" Donetsk and Luhansk as the primary objective of the war.
The analogies with the Finnish Winter War (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War) are striking. It seems that at least Zelensky is steering towards a similar way out: neutrality, guaranteed territorial integrity and the option of future EU membership.
To save face Putin needs territorial concessions as well. To me it seems rather inevitable that Ukraine needs to sign off on a Russian annexation of the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Key will be to avoid a permanent Russian hold on the entire southern coast. The west could redesignate frozen assests of the Russian central bank as war reparations, in return for a normalisation of economic relations and lifting of the sanctions.
Unsatisfactory? Absolutely.
But this slaughter has to stop and like in the Finnish case, a free, peaceful and prosperous future is probably worth the sacrifice.
And even though it might seem Russia would be rewarded, I think hat it will be paying a high price for this adventure in terms of long term damage to its economy, its credibility on the international stage and its military reputation.
Quote from: Que on March 29, 2022, 11:54:10 PM
I'm following the negotiations, that seem more genuine, now Turkey acts as mediator and the Putin regime has switched the narrative in Russia to "liberating" Donetsk and Luhansk as the primary objective of the war.
The analogies with the Finnish Winter War (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War) are striking. It seems that at least Zelensky is steering towards a similar way out: neutrality, guaranteed territorial integrity and the option of future EU membership.
To save face Putin needs territorial concessions as well. To me it seems rather inevitable that Ukraine needs to sign off on a Russian annexation of the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Key will be to avoid a permanent Russian hold on the entire southern coast. The west could redesignate frozen assests of the Russian central bank as war reparations, in return for a normalisation of economic relations and lifting of the sanctions.
Unsatisfactory? Absolutely.
But this slaughter has to stop and like in the Finnish case, a free, peaceful and prosperous future is probably worth the sacrifice.
And even though it might seem Russia would be rewarded, I think hat it will be paying a high price for this adventure in terms of long term damage to its economy, its credibility on the international stage and its military reputation.
Giving Crimea to Russia is
relatively justifiable given that, within the Soviet Union, it was part of Russia until 1954, and the great majority of the population identifies as ethnically Russian. The basis for taking Donbass is heck of a lot more problematic, as it has much more of a Ukrainian history, a lot more people identifying as ethnically Ukrainian, and considerable chunks of territory that the breakaway republics have not actually had control of since 2014 despite claiming them.
And people living there mainly wanting to stay Ukrainian:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums
Quote from: Que on March 29, 2022, 11:54:10 PM
I'm following the negotiations, that seem more genuine, now Turkey acts as mediator and the Putin regime has switched the narrative in Russia to "liberating" Donetsk and Luhansk as the primary objective of the war.
The analogies with the Finnish Winter War (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War) are striking. It seems that at least Zelensky is steering towards a similar way out: neutrality, guaranteed territorial integrity and the option of future EU membership.
To save face Putin needs territorial concessions as well. To me it seems rather inevitable that Ukraine needs to sign off on a Russian annexation of the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Key will be to avoid a permanent Russian hold on the entire southern coast. The west could redesignate frozen assests of the Russian central bank as war reparations, in return for a normalisation of economic relations and lifting of the sanctions.
Unsatisfactory? Absolutely.
But this slaughter has to stop and like in the Finnish case, a free, peaceful and prosperous future is probably worth the sacrifice.
And even though it might seem Russia would be rewarded, I think hat it will be paying a high price for this adventure in terms of long term damage to its economy, its credibility on the international stage and its military reputation.
I think Russia is stalling for the purpose of reinforcing and resupplying their forces. Ukraine will need to be bolstered for phase II.
Of course there's an outline of a settlement here. Putin would be crazy to hold out for more.
If Russia was serious there would be a ceasefire. They wouldn't have to propose it, they could just stop firing and announce it. That would be a real first step and the negotiations might become authentic.
Quote from: The new erato on March 30, 2022, 03:41:13 AM
And people living there mainly wanting to stay Ukrainian:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums
If the Ukrainian suggestion of a pause of 15 years before a new referendum, concerning Crimea and the Donbass republics, the Ukrainian chances for keeping those regions have probably improved a lot, since Russia seems to be going down generally. But I find it most likely that a referendum among the locals there right now would vote for Russia. They've been the subject of Russian propaganda for 8 years, there's been shelling from the Ukrainian side too, and a large influx of Russians to Crimea (some say 500,000); so a lot of the Ukraine-friendly people left. The Crimean Tatars and the Ukrainians there have experienced persecution during the Russian annexation, and it's a subject that hasn't been dealt with enough internationally. But the fleeing also works for a vote for Russia. Of course, there's the possibility that the banditry regime of the 'republics' have made them detest everything Russian-influenced, but I personally doubt it.
Despite Russia's claim that it's withdrawing from the northern axis to focus on Donbas, civilians across the whole line from Kiev to Kharkiv report continued or intensified shelling, and no one has spotted any troop withdrawals. US intelligence seems to concur. That's also pretty much what I expected to happen; any claim made by a world leader involved in a war seems to reliably be the exact opposite of truthful. If either Russia or Ukraine said the sky was blue I would assume it was green until verified otherwise.
That said, the fact that Russia is now speaking in terms of troop withdrawals and "mission(s) accomplished" is an encouraging sign for peace talks, since that indicates it's set up for itself an exit strategy that nevertheless allows it to claim some kind of propaganda victory. I suppose from here on it's all about framing.
I don't think Donbas becomes part of Russia incidentally; the final settlement could be independence for the separatist-held areas (and rule by a Russian proxy regime) or it could be some sort of devolution, and the more likely outcome is the indefinite continuation of the status quo ante. According to people I've talked to from the area (ok, not a large sample size), the Russian government is not particularly trusted at the moment. General sentiment is feeling abandoned by Russia for the last eight years, apparently. Obviously if separatist leadership wanted to become part of the Russian state they would fix the referenda in their favour (which is what everyone expects them to do anyway). Notable that neither side has released a preferred solution for the area with both Russia and Ukraine saying it's a final status issue that must be determined through negotiations. Given the abject failure of the Minsk agreement I don't see that working out well, but we'll see I guess.
Quote from: Que on March 29, 2022, 11:54:10 PMAnd even though it might seem Russia would be rewarded, I think hat it will be paying a high price for this adventure in terms of long term damage to its economy, its credibility on the international stage and its military reputation.
Another outcome is that the full extent of economic warfare the US will engage in has been exposed, and certain actions, such as freezing of central bank assets, will accelerate a move away from global dollar dominance. Not everyone applauds US economic warfare.
And perceived Russian gains, which are in fact gains, serve as a lesson for other powers that may pursue military adventures, meaning, of course, China, but others on a smaller scale as well.
Quote from: amw on March 30, 2022, 05:47:02 AM
Despite Russia's claim that it's withdrawing from the northern axis to focus on Donbas, civilians across the whole line from Kiev to Kharkiv report continued or intensified shelling, and no one has spotted any troop withdrawals. US intelligence seems to concur. That's also pretty much what I expected to happen; any claim made by a world leader involved in a war seems to reliably be the exact opposite of truthful. If either Russia or Ukraine said the sky was blue I would assume it was green until verified otherwise.
(....)
A more positive interpretation here, including by an on-site reporter, is that it's the Ukrainians trying to force the Russians back, especially around Kyiv - hence the intensified firing.
From Reuters, also picked up by CNN:
" Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by his advisers about how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Westerns sanctions have been to Russia's economy, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, citing declassified intelligence. "
Vlad the Mad is probably really mad...
Quote from: LKB on March 30, 2022, 06:42:16 AM
From Reuters, also picked up by CNN:
" Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by his advisers about how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Westerns sanctions have been to Russia's economy, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, citing declassified intelligence. "
Vlad the Mad is probably really mad...
Consider that the pantywaists with whom the comic figure Trump surrounded himself could not bring themselves to tell
him anything he didn't want to hear. But with Putin we have an actually murderous bastard.
Ukraine's embassy in Finland happens to be very near (200 m / 600 ft or so) my flat. I can even see part of it from my balcony.
I walked past the embassy today. People had left all kind of stuff of sympathy on the fence.
Yellow and blue ribbons, drawings, flowers, etc. 0:)
Quote from: 71 dB on March 30, 2022, 10:31:37 AM
Ukraine's embassy in Finland happens to be very near (200 m / 600 ft or so) my flat. I can even see part of it from my balcony.
I walked past the embassy today. People had left all kind of stuff of sympathy on the fence.
Yellow and blue ribbons, drawings, flowers, etc. 0:)
That's very special to hear....lovely people.
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 30, 2022, 01:48:05 PM
That's very special to hear....lovely people.
PD
To be fair, I'm sure the same has happened in many countries with the local embassies of Ukraine. 0:)
For those interested in assessments of the military developments, here is a source the Financial Times uses*:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30 (https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-30)
* Mind that this Critical Threats Project is run by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, a neoconservative thinktank.
The Russian rouble has recovered to its pre-war value despite western sanctions on the country's exports and financial systems.
The currency was trading at 75.5 to one US dollar on Thursday morning, compared with almost 140 to the dollar at the beginning of March when it crashed with the onest of sanctions. That is actually better than it was on 22 February, two days before the invasion, when it was at 80 per dollar.
Russia has bolstered the currency by raising interest rates to 20% – therefore encouraging investment in the rouble – and imposing capital controls which mean that people cannot swap roubles for other currencies.
The Kremlin's threat to make European gas importers like Germany pay for their supplies in roubles – thus boosting the currency's value – has also helped. More help has come from China and India, which have increased the amount of Russian oil they are buying thanks to generous discounts from Moscow.
Quote from: LKB on March 30, 2022, 06:42:16 AM
From Reuters, also picked up by CNN:
" Russian President Vladimir Putin was misled by his advisers about how poorly the war in Ukraine is going and how damaging Westerns sanctions have been to Russia's economy, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, citing declassified intelligence. "
Vlad the Mad is probably really mad...
Yes. However, this interaction between Putin and Sergei Naryshkin, head of the FSB, at a meeting of the Russian Security Council, suggests that the word misled might be misleading. Putin is pretty much demanding to be misled, requiring that his biases be confirmed and intimidating a man who seems disinclined to confirm them. This Trump level childishness is frightening in someone I long assumed was grounded in reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9A-u8EoWcI
Putin may have expected Ukraine to capitulate within days. That hasn't happened and the Russian military had gotten bogged down and taken heavy losses. (They've already suffered more deaths that the U.S. did in 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.) That doesn't mean they won't prevail, destroying and annexing Ukraine (the parts they want). Remember, The Soviet Union "won" the "Great Patriotic War." Then did this at the cost of at least 9 million military deaths. (The United States suffered about 400,000 military deaths during WWII). Putin doesn't care how many Russians die, as long as he isn't one of them (due to unfortunate presence of radioactive Polonium in his tea, or Novichok finding its way to his underpants).
Putin has ordered another 135,000 drafted into the Russian military.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3012130-putin-ordering-draft-of-135000-amid-difficulties-in-ukraine-war/
(Thank you moderators for lifting the restrictions! :) 0:) )
Quote from: LKB on March 31, 2022, 09:12:08 AM
Putin has ordered another 135,000 drafted into the Russian military.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3012130-putin-ordering-draft-of-135000-amid-difficulties-in-ukraine-war/
"Just a small military operation that will take 2-3 days... " ::)
Quote from: LKB on March 31, 2022, 09:12:08 AM
Putin has ordered another 135,000 drafted into the Russian military.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3012130-putin-ordering-draft-of-135000-amid-difficulties-in-ukraine-war/
According to what I have read, that is only moderately above the usual amount, which was 126,000 last year. Conscripts serve one year and a new batch is needed every year to replace those that are leaving.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization
Quote from: LKB on March 31, 2022, 09:12:08 AM
Putin has ordered another 135,000 drafted into the Russian military.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3012130-putin-ordering-draft-of-135000-amid-difficulties-in-ukraine-war/
I'm not sure of of the relevance of this; Russia has had a Springtime call-up of draftees every year for the past 3 years, the number each year? 135,000. Also, if they are calling them up for this reason, it will still be 3-4 months before they can even consider going to Ukraine 🇺🇦.
🤠😎
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 30, 2022, 06:13:34 AM
A more positive interpretation here, including by an on-site reporter, is that it's the Ukrainians trying to force the Russians back, especially around Kyiv - hence the intensified firing.
This is potentially more accurate: civilians around Sumy, Bucha and a few other areas reported Russian columns withdrawing over the last 24 hours or so, well in advance of the arrival of Ukrainian troops. It seems likely that not much actual fighting took place, and Russia was using artillery/missile fire as a screen to withdraw its forces and prevent material losses. (some Ukr troops are themselves reporting that areas they're retaking are abandoned, which would normally be against opsec but I guess military censors are allowing their social media posts through on the grounds of it being good for morale.)
So that is good news and rather unexpected, at least in the sense that Russia is actually removing troops from the northern axis rather than leaving them to die. Also possibly a sign that the talks in Istanbul may be progressing much better than past attempts.
Well, I guess the war has just been a 9-day-wonder as we used to say. Sort of an intellectual exercise for the elite... I saw this morning that overnight large fuel dump INSIDE Russia was destroyed by some sort of aerial attack. The Ukrainians are neither owning nor denying any involvement. If they did it, how? If they didn't, who?
This reminds me of last week when a Russian warship was sunk in the Black Sea. If the Ukrainians did it, how? Etc etc etc... 😉
🤠😎
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 01, 2022, 06:17:15 AM
Well, I guess the war has just been a 9-day-wonder as we used to say. Sort of an intellectual exercise for the elite... I saw this morning that overnight large fuel dump INSIDE Russia was destroyed by some sort of aerial attack. The Ukrainians are neither owning nor denying any involvement. If they did it, how? If they didn't, who?
This reminds me of last week when a Russian warship was sunk in the Black Sea. If the Ukrainians did it, how? Etc etc etc... 😉
🤠😎
Allegedly, two helicopters. And the sea lanes are said to have been mined.
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 01, 2022, 07:14:31 AM
Allegedly, two helicopters. And the sea lanes are said to have been mined.
Since the Russians are claiming to `own the skies `, one wonders how 2 previously unused helicopters were able to cross into Russia itself and despatch a major fuel supply depot. Maybe we are actually seeing another false flag operation to be used to justify further atrocities.
And who mined sea lanes? Surely not Ukraine. I am totally unaware of their navy. :-\
🤠😎
Russia wants what Ukraine will never concede, a land bridge from Donetsk to Crimea and the Black Sea. That's the point of Mariupol.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/71C9/production/_123492192_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_03_02_x2640-nc.png)
The map is dated but good enough.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 01, 2022, 08:57:00 AM
Since the Russians are claiming to `own the skies `, one wonders how 2 previously unused helicopters were able to cross into Russia itself and despatch a major fuel supply depot. Maybe we are actually seeing another false flag operation to be used to justify further atrocities.
And who mined sea lanes? Surely not Ukraine. I am totally unaware of their navy. :-\
🤠😎
Considering the Russian supply problem it seems unlikely they would do this.
I'm totally unaware of how the Ukes mined the coast before the war.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 01, 2022, 08:57:00 AM
Since the Russians are claiming to `own the skies `, one wonders how 2 previously unused helicopters were able to cross into Russia itself and despatch a major fuel supply depot. Maybe we are actually seeing another false flag operation to be used to justify further atrocities.
And who mined sea lanes? Surely not Ukraine. I am totally unaware of their navy. :-\
🤠😎
From my extensive research (google) the Ukraine's Navy was mostly lost when their Naval base on the Crimea was captured. They have since acquired a "mosquito navy" consisting of former U.S. coast guard patrol boats, and similar boats around 25 meters in length.
Mines nowadays are mostly laid by Helicopters or other aircraft.
And apparently Russia does not entirely "own the skies."
Quote from: drogulus on April 01, 2022, 09:12:25 AM
Considering the Russian supply problem it seems unlikely they would do this.
I agree with the logic of that, it was my own first reaction. However, logic don't always enter in to their thinking pattern, and if you want to convince the world that it was the Ukes, you have to have a high value target to dangle. Anyway, right now they have an abundance of oil, although I don't know the state of its refinement.
8)
The high value target is the mind of the Russian decision maker. Let's say Putin really doesn't know how bad the war is going. I'm sure he knows it's bad, that much must be the case. From the Uke perspective, though, they must provide evidence that gets to Putin no matter what the yes men around him say.
Ukraine has won the first phase of the war, and the Phase II war of attrition actually favors Ukraine even more, because Ukraine is effectively being supplied from territory Russia can't touch. Plus, Ukraine can make better use of all the captured tanks than the Russians could.
Convincing Putin that time favors Ukraine is a big deal. It helps that it's true.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 01, 2022, 06:17:15 AM
Well, I guess the war has just been a 9-day-wonder as we used to say. Sort of an intellectual exercise for the elite... I saw this morning that overnight large fuel dump INSIDE Russia was destroyed by some sort of aerial attack. The Ukrainians are neither owning nor denying any involvement. If they did it, how? If they didn't, who?
This reminds me of last week when a Russian warship was sunk in the Black Sea. If the Ukrainians did it, how? Etc etc etc... 😉
🤠😎
I'm aware of two Russian warships that were neutralized by the Ukrainians, both by land based artillery: an equipment transport ship that was docked and had been offloading for several days, and a vessel (destroyer, I think) sailing close enough to the coastline to be hit by a surface to air missile that was repurposed into a surface to ship missile.
Quote from: JBS on April 01, 2022, 10:46:22 AM
I'm aware of two Russian warships that were neutralized by the Ukrainians, both by land based artillery: an equipment transport ship that was docked and had been offloading for several days, and a vessel (destroyer, I think) sailing close enough to the coastline to be hit by a surface to air missile that was repurposed into a surface to ship missile.
The ship formerly occupied air 8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 01, 2022, 08:57:00 AM
Since the Russians are claiming to `own the skies `, one wonders how 2 previously unused helicopters were able to cross into Russia itself and despatch a major fuel supply depot. Maybe we are actually seeing another false flag operation to be used to justify further atrocities.
And who mined sea lanes? Surely not Ukraine. I am totally unaware of their navy. :-\
🤠😎
Flying at treetop level in the same kind of helicopters the Russians fly and air to ground missiles. Given that Russia is losing generals because they're using Ukranian G3 phone networks and the general disarray and incompetence of every aspect of Russian military organization, is it really surprising they failed anticipate and counter this attack?
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 01, 2022, 11:30:16 AM
Flying at treetop level in the same kind of helicopters the Russians fly and air to ground missiles. Given that Russia is losing generals because they're using Ukranian G3 phone networks and the general disarray and incompetence of every aspect of Russian military organization, is it really surprising they failed anticipate and counter this attack?
It's the last thing anyone anticipated, but the world together with the Ukraine are thanking our lucky stars that today's Red Army are The Gang That Can't Shoot Straight.
Western diplomats court India over Ukraine but fail to find love (https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/04/01/western-diplomats-court-india-over-ukraine-but-fail-to-find-love)
And the US is none too happy about it:
U.S. Tells India There Will Be 'Consequences' for Dodging Russia Sanctions (https://www.newsweek.com/us-india-russia-sanctions-consequences-ukraine-invasion-1694076)
If both China and India choose to "dodge" sanctions, whatever that means exactly, one must wonder if the US would place sanctions on the second and seventh largest economies at the same time.
(https://www.criticalthreats.org/wp-content/uploads/DraftUkraineCoTApril12022-670x1024.png)
Key Takeaways
We now assess that Russia has revised its campaign plan in Ukraine after the failure of operations to seize Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities throughout March.
The Kremlin's claims that Russia's main objective has been eastern Ukraine throughout the war are false and intended to obfuscate the failure of Russia's initial campaign.
Russia's main effort is now concentrated on eastern Ukraine. Russian forces seek to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Russian forces will likely take Mariupol in the coming days but continue to suffer heavy casualties.
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-1
Quote from: Que on April 02, 2022, 02:30:51 AMThe Kremlin's claims that Russia's main objective has been eastern Ukraine throughout the war are false and intended to obfuscate the failure of Russia's initial campaign.
I'm curious how the American Enterprise Institute knows this with such certainty. It's a possibility.
Quote from: Que on April 02, 2022, 02:30:51 AM
Russian forces will likely take Mariupol in the coming days but continue to suffer heavy casualties.
The AEI is wrong on at least this point: the mayor of Mariupol declared that the city had fallen on March 27, and Russia declared a unilateral humanitarian ceasefire on March 28. There apparently remain a handful of Ukrainian forces holed up in the Azovstal plant who continue to fight an insurgency—largely because Russia is apparently not accepting surrenders, and its stated intention is to kill every Ukrainian defender of the city—but Russia effectively holds all of the populated areas of the city and is evacuating large portions of its population eastwards into Russian territory. Shelling & missile attacks there have reportedly ceased already.
I recall AEI to be a generally pro-war think tank with a conservative bias. Most American military/foreign policy think tanks, regardless of political affiliation, also have longstanding biases regarding Russian culture as a whole, including claims that Russians are somehow genetically predisposed to be violent, perennially duplicitous authoritarians who require dictatorial leadership and have no ability to comprehend modern life; the kind of thing that would be universally condemned as racism if they said it about any other ethnic group. Anyone who claims that Russians may be rational political actors with logical justifications for their actions receives angry pushback from think tankers. This may affect their assessment here; for instance, I do think it's possible that Russia is withdrawing from the Kiev axis in response to Ukraine's promise not to join NATO and maintain neutrality, either as a gesture of good faith or to satisfy a counter-demand made by Ukraine during the Istanbul peace talks. But again we'll see how things play out in the near future, I assume.
Quote from: amw on April 02, 2022, 01:13:44 PM
I recall AEI to be a generally pro-war think tank with a conservative bias. Most American military/foreign policy think tanks, regardless of political affiliation, also have longstanding biases regarding Russian culture as a whole, including claims that Russians are somehow genetically predisposed to be violent, perennially duplicitous authoritarians who require dictatorial leadership and have no ability to comprehend modern life; the kind of thing that would be universally condemned as racism if they said it about any other ethnic group. Anyone who claims that Russians may be rational political actors with logical justifications for their actions receives angry pushback from think tankers. This may affect their assessment here; for instance, I do think it's possible that Russia is withdrawing from the Kiev axis in response to Ukraine's promise not to join NATO and maintain neutrality, either as a gesture of good faith or to satisfy a counter-demand made by Ukraine during the Istanbul peace talks. But again we'll see how things play out in the near future, I assume.
As far as I know, no one considers AEI to be anything other than a conservative think tank, so "conservative bias" is an understatement.
I do need to point out that at least from the end of the USSR through the annexation of Crimea, Western policy was based on the assumption that Russia was quite capable of merging into the Western order of liberal democracy and shaking off Putinist authoritarianism.
Another interesting potential explanation I've come across is that Russia in fact has no central objective; individual generals were kept in the dark about the overall battle plan (if there even was one) and forced to compete for resources; and that this was largely because Putin/the Russian government had limited trust in the military and was paranoid about information leaks. Isolating one's own military commanders and limiting the amount of information they have access to is a pretty common tactic in fascist and far-right states worldwide, apparently. While I obviously have even less idea as to whether this is true, it would certainly explain the long disappearance of Russia's Minister of Defense during the war (Putin being afraid that his authority would be overruled), the large number of Russian generals who have been reported killed (and not proven to be by Ukrainian action specifically), and the lack of logistical support. An element in play here could be the purging of dissident elements in the Russian military itself.
None of this is to say that the official Western explanation for the war to date is inaccurate; there are just a number of alternate possibilities that have been floated by well-informed people and I'm usually inclined to distrust the West on principle. I do not know enough to commit to one particular explanation. Nor, I think, does anyone else on here.
Quote from: JBS on April 02, 2022, 01:29:44 PM
I do need to point out that at least from the end of the USSR through the annexation of Crimea, Western policy was based on the assumption that Russia was quite capable of merging into the Western order of liberal democracy and shaking off Putinist authoritarianism.
That's true—although I do believe conservative think tanks disagreed with this point on principle. (Interestingly that's actually been reversed in recent years with conservative politicians adopting increasingly pro-Russian viewpoints even as the mainstream liberal order reverts to the old conservative position of the 90s-00s.)
German TV says Russia will continue delivery of gas. Rubles will not be demanded immediately. Also, Germany will provide 58 tanks to Ukraine. Actually they are IFVs, armored infantry vehicles from the old GDR stock.
(https://preview.redd.it/p4fm8pumnwq81.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=a6969ffbd4c3f11d7436126d538c4d906a66fc22)
On the ground, surreal situations abound. Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov was captured and interrogated by Russian troops. He discovered that they knew basically zilch about Ukraine:
The soldiers told him they wanted to defend the Russian language. "I told them 95% of us speak Russian already and nobody's stopping us, so there's no problem," Fedorov said.
Imagine American soldiers invading Canada to "defend the English language."
https://www.northernpublicradio.org/2022-03-31/ukraine-mayor-says-russian-soldiers-who-kidnapped-him-knew-nothing-about-his-country?msclkid=1dd55c97b2fa11ec989dea11a1d41e12
Some facts about Russian strateg and how they failed:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510276474175115281.html
Quote from: The new erato on April 02, 2022, 09:23:44 PM
Some facts about Russian strateg and how they failed:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510276474175115281.html
Thanks
Quote from: Mandryka on April 03, 2022, 12:04:56 AM
Thanks
Though I'm not sure on reflection why the Russkies needed to encircle Kyiv, why not just bomb it to smithereens from the air? I smell a fish.
Quote from: Que on April 02, 2022, 02:30:51 AM
(...)
We now assess that Russia has revised its campaign plan in Ukraine after the failure of operations to seize Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities throughout March.
The Kremlin's claims that Russia's main objective has been eastern Ukraine throughout the war are false and intended to obfuscate the failure of Russia's initial campaign.
Russia's main effort is now concentrated on eastern Ukraine. Russian forces seek to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Russian forces will likely take Mariupol in the coming days but continue to suffer heavy casualties.[/i]
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-1
The Russian losses have indeed been massive; this is considered a reliable source list and it is based on just social media photos, knowledge and comparisons and geolocation by weaponry experts. Besides those, there must of course be further ones, not registered
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
The analyst Michael Kofman also believes they will now concentrate on Donbass and then declare victory afterwards; they will spare Odessa and Kyiv
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1510289334989205506
(also has a more realistic map, since the Russian army isn't really in control of the usually depicted areas)
'Demining roads from Russian mines - Ukrainian style'.
I guess for many, war participation induces harshness and fatalism.
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1509863102107590659
Quote from: The new erato on April 02, 2022, 09:23:44 PM
Some facts about Russian strateg and how they failed:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510276474175115281.html
A lot of information I had not seen and getting the overall pictore, thank you. The numbers of Russian soldiers were much higher than I had heard about. Of course, we don't know much about Ukrainian losses. They must be comprehensive too.
BTW, research has shown that Putin usually surrounds himself with 4-5 doctors, and that he has been visited by a thyroid cancer specialist 35 times recently. The prognosis for that disease is generally quite good. Around 90% survival after 5 years.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 03, 2022, 12:55:56 AM
The analyst Michael Kofman also believes they will now concentrate on Donbass and then declare victory afterwards; they will spare Odessa and Kyiv
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1510289334989205506
(also has a more realistic map, since the Russian army isn't really in control of the usually depicted areas)
Another interesting map from the same source:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPWaZFQaQAc2z6D?format=jpg&name=medium)
That Odessa will be spared from destruction is a glimmer of light in this war.
It seems that Putin will try to occupy the entire Donbas before he wants to negotiate. Negotiations of which the only purpose would be to "neutralise" Ukraine for the future and to legitimise the annexations of Donbas and Crimea. I wouldn't be surprised if ultimately Putin will fail in achieving one or all of these objectives as well.
Because I don't see much Russian progress on the battlefield in the Donbas region. And after securing Kyiv, what will the Ukrainian military strategy be? Targeting the Russian forces near Mariupol?
Ukraine reconquered Pripyat/Cernobyl today, all the way to the Belarus border, so that's even more included as yellow on that map (flags and celebrations + April weather shown on photos on social media).
Ahonen also has a more recent thread on the end of the war, but maybe too optimistic, except that skirmishes/pockets of war may drag on for years: that Russia can't win, only hope for a 'draw' or modest gains, and that when Putin goes, he'll get all the blame by the new Russian leadership, and the war will stop quickly.
EDIT: this: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1508552811998494725.html
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 03, 2022, 04:20:48 AM
Ahonen also has a more recent thread on the end of the war, but maybe too optimistic, except that skirmishes/pockets of war may drag on for years: that Russia can't win, only hope for a 'draw' or modest gains, and that when Putin goes, he'll get all the blame by the new Russian leadership, and the war will stop quickly.
Perhaps, but "when Putin goes" could be as far in the future as 2036, unless he is deposed in a palace coup (unlikely) or incapacitated by illness before then (always possible, especially given his age). So it sounds as if those skirmishes could drag on for well over a decade, barring unexpected developments.
Quote from: Que on April 03, 2022, 01:45:33 AM
Because I don't see much Russian progress on the battlefield in the Donbas region. And after securing Kyiv, what will the Ukrainian military strategy be? Targeting the Russian forces near Mariupol?
I think they must do this, given the numbers of Ukranian citizens dying there. And getting cameras in to interview the survivors about civilian executions, rapes, dead babies, starvation, the use of cluster bombs, and the wanton destruction will play well on the world stage. Cutting the bridge to Crimea could be strategically valuable as well.
More shifts in the geopolitical balance of power as a result of this war.
Now the US and its European allies are vulnerable on energy supply, our "friends" are ready to stab us in the back:
Biden rebuffed as US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE hit new low (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/03/us-relations-saudi-arabia-uae-oil-crisis)
Quote from: Que on April 03, 2022, 06:45:04 AM
More shifts in the geopolitical balance of power as a result of this war.
Now the US and allies are vulnerable on energy supply, our "friends" are ready to stab us in the back:
Biden rebuffed as US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE hit new low (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/03/us-relations-saudi-arabia-uae-oil-crisis)
The US started reorienting foreign policy in the Middle East long before the war. The US is actively seeking to reduce security commitments in the Middle East. While oil markets are global, the US has wisely sourced most of its oil away from both Russia and the Middle East, instead relying on domestic production with its two largest sources of foreign oil being Canada and Mexico. Disruptions will have a greater negative impact on US allies more reliant on extractive resources from less stable regions. Relations with some major oil producers may very well worsen, but at some point they may improve. Alliances will shift and some will become even more transactional.
Zelensky accuses Russia of genocide (https://thehill.com/news/sunday-talk-shows/3257609-zelensky-accuses-russia-of-genocide/)
Zelensky needs to tame his actorly instincts, or at least refine them. His allusion to the Holocaust did not go down well in Israel. Maybe he's trying to reach young people in the US, even though they do not watch Face the Nation:
Our polling reveals a striking generational divide on Ukraine
Young people in America and Europe are less sympathetic towards it (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/29/our-polling-reveals-a-striking-generational-divide-on-ukraine?msclkid=bd1791bab36111ecb852e69c23aa7089)
Quote from: Que on April 03, 2022, 06:45:04 AM
More shifts in the geopolitical balance of power as a result of this war.
Now the US and its European allies are vulnerable on energy supply, our "friends" are ready to stab us in the back:
Biden rebuffed as US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE hit new low (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/03/us-relations-saudi-arabia-uae-oil-crisis)
If we Americans had been paying attention, being beholden to bad-faith actors is bad policy.
It looks like the theory that Russia is not sending their best has gone poof. Top notch equipment is over represented in confirmed losses according to a website run by people good at knowing stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/v/Lem3enNkbV0&t
One point: The Russian army Ukraine is defeating is the Russian army, a large representative portion.
One other point: The notion that Russia will now send in the Non-Clowns for the big push that's supposed to encircle the Ukes in the space between Mariupol and Donetsk (Dnipro, maybe) is not credible.
Quote from: drogulus on April 03, 2022, 11:26:41 AM
It looks like the theory that Russia is not sending their best has gone poof. Top notch equipment is over represented in confirmed losses according to a website run by people good at knowing stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/v/Lem3enNkbV0&t
One point: The Russian army Ukraine is defeating is the Russian army, a large representative portion.
One other point: The notion that Russia will now send in the Non-Clowns for the big push that's supposed to encircle the Ukes in the space between Mariupol and Donetsk (Dnipro, maybe) is not credible.
The gap between gear and soldiery?
On the issue of clowns or non-clowns in the invading Russian troops Pjotr Sauer, one of the few reporters apparently still in Russia, has an revealing report. A lot of soldiers are from very remote regions, who have no idea what Uke is and what they're there for and nobody in leadership is telling them - which may be part of the reason why there is so much indiscriminate killing.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/coffins-in-buryatia-ukraine-invasion-takes-toll-on-russias-remote-regions
Quote from: amw on April 02, 2022, 01:13:44 PM
Most American military/foreign policy think tanks, regardless of political affiliation, also have longstanding biases regarding Russian culture as a whole, including claims that Russians are somehow genetically predisposed to be violent, perennially duplicitous authoritarians who require dictatorial leadership and have no ability to comprehend modern life; the kind of thing that would be universally condemned as racism if they said it about any other ethnic group.
I tend to agree with this, the only problem is we're not really helped right now in thinking another way.
Nevertheless it's always inadvisable to work from the premiss that the other party is stupid and savage.
Quote from: Herman on April 03, 2022, 11:55:53 PM
Nevertheless it's always inadvisable to work from the premiss that the other party is stupid and savage.
Evidence for stupidity: Chernobyl and Zaporozhzhye.
Evidence for savagery: pretty much all of occupied Ukraine, especially Mariupol and Bucha.
Quote from: amw on April 02, 2022, 01:13:44 PM
claims that Russians are somehow genetically predisposed to be violent, perennially duplicitous authoritarians who require dictatorial leadership and have no ability to comprehend modern life
Which might actually be true.
Quote from: Florestan on April 04, 2022, 01:03:01 AM
Evidence for stupidity: Chernobyl and Zaporozhzhye.
Evidence for savagery: pretty much all of occupied Ukraine, especially Mariupol and Bucha.
Which might actually be true.
Please, "genetically predisposed" to violence and authoritarianism etc? Not a cultural thing, connected to the utter lack of opportunities for most people there?
So, following that line of thinking, USA Americans are "genetically predisposed" to shooting guns at each other?
We're not going to win a 21st century war with that kind of simple thinking.
Quote from: Herman on April 04, 2022, 02:21:10 AM
Please, "genetically predisposed" to violence and authoritarianism etc? Not a cultural thing, connected to the utter lack of opportunities for most people there?
When you have been living for more than 500 years under tyranny, ignorance and poverty all the while being told what a great nation you are and what a redeeming mission you have in the world, culture turns into nature. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on April 04, 2022, 01:03:01 AM
Evidence for stupidity: Chernobyl and Zaporozhzhye.
Evidence for savagery: pretty much all of occupied Ukraine, especially Mariupol and Bucha.
Which might actually be true.
"genetically predisposed"? Hello, Junk Science.
Quote from: drogulus on April 03, 2022, 11:26:41 AM
It looks like the theory that Russia is not sending their best has gone poof. Top notch equipment is over represented in confirmed losses according to a website run by people good at knowing stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/v/Lem3enNkbV0&t
One point: The Russian army Ukraine is defeating is the Russian army, a large representative portion.
One other point: The notion that Russia will now send in the Non-Clowns for the big push that's supposed to encircle the Ukes in the space between Mariupol and Donetsk (Dnipro, maybe) is not credible.
An interesting and informative read on the identification of the units and hardware involved in the invasion. But at least one big false dichotomy has to be addressed: The mistaken distinction drawn between cannon fodder and professional troops. In what conflict over the last two centuries have Russian troops at every level of experience from special forces and officers to raw conscipts been treated as anything but expendable? I must have missed a war or two there I guess. The best are fodder too. In fact, generals and colonels seem to be cannon fodder in this conflict. And this analysis doesn't address some major causes of the offensive's failure (The command structure of the Russian military and the disastrous failures in materiel maintenance and logistics) and so leaves a perhaps overly optimistic impression of the Ukrainians' performance(?)
It's been horrible hearing the recent news about the mass grave at Bucha and other atrocities by the Russian forces.
Latest news: some Ukrainians are trying to "expedite" matters by trying to get into the US via the Mexican border (having watched videos on youtube) and are finding that they were misinformed.
Here's one story: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/ukrainians-thought-easy-cross-mexican-border-us-wrong-rcna22067
PD
Quote from: Herman on April 03, 2022, 11:52:57 PM
On the issue of clowns or non-clowns in the invading Russian troops Pjotr Sauer, one of the few reporters apparently still in Russia, has an revealing report. A lot of soldiers are from very remote regions, who have no idea what Uke is and what they're there for and nobody in leadership is telling them - which may be part of the reason why there is so much indiscriminate killing.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/coffins-in-buryatia-ukraine-invasion-takes-toll-on-russias-remote-regions
That's certainly true, however the point is that elite forces are participating and not held back.
The heavy losses of an elite Russian regiment in Ukraine (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60946340)
God bless Ukraine.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 04, 2022, 06:49:10 AM
God bless Ukraine.
Not personally believing in God (nor disbelieving, just to be clear), I would only echo what the Ukrainians say:
Слава Україні!
Glory to Ukraine!
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 04, 2022, 05:27:56 AM
An interesting and informative read on the identification of the units and hardware involved in the invasion. But at least one big false dichotomy has to be addressed: The mistaken distinction drawn between cannon fodder and professional troops. In what conflict over the last two centuries have Russian troops at every level of experience from special forces and officers to raw conscipts been treated as anything but expendable? I must have missed a war or two there I guess. The best are fodder too. In fact, generals and colonels seem to be cannon fodder in this conflict. And this analysis doesn't address some major causes of the offensive's failure (The command structure of the Russian military and the disastrous failures in materiel maintenance and logistics) and so leaves a perhaps overly optimistic impression of the Ukrainians' performance(?)
To be quite honest, the most obvious thing in retrospect is that a state like Russia, where state capacity has been sold off to high bidders and crooks, would, in retrospect, very obviously have issues with conducting a war, something which requires a great deal of state capacity.
I think similar issues apply to some of the US's foreign policy failures in the last decade or so.
The RUSI is a British military think tank, and should be read in that context, but I did find interesting their speculation that Russia significantly over-estimated the effectiveness of disinformation and fifth columnists to erode state support.
QuoteNonmilitary tools and military ones need not complement each other, and may actually have contradictory effects. For example, efforts to cultivate friendly or apathetic elements in a foreign society may be entirely undone by an assault that has a unifying effort on an opposing society. In this context, previously sympathetic or neutral elements may alter their loyalties or at least avoid acting in support of an invading force. Rather than complementing each other in an additive fashion, then, subversion and direct assault may be contradictory. Indeed, this appears to have been the major flaw in the FSB Fifth Service's research conducted before the conflict, which conflated pre-war dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian government with post-war attitudes, ignoring the effect that Russia's own actions would have in changing these opinions. [...]
Finally, Russian military authors writing about phenomena such as so-called colour revolutions appear to place excessive weight on the agency of large actors and their ability to shape conditions in smaller states, while excluding the agency of the elites and people of the state in question.
One reason I find this particularly interesting is that it's a flaw that shows up in a lot of left-wing discourse - a failure to consider the agency of states as anything other than proxies of Great Powers.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/intellectual-failures-behind-russias-bungled-invasion
Quote from: krummholz on April 04, 2022, 07:54:01 AM
Not personally believing in God (nor disbelieving, just to be clear), I would only echo what the Ukrainians say:
Слава Україні!
Glory to Ukraine!
https://www.youtube.com/v/S-YWmDAOujs
Quote from: Florestan on April 04, 2022, 02:42:06 AM
When you have been living for more than 500 years under tyranny, ignorance and poverty all the while being told what a great nation you are and what a redeeming mission you have in the world, culture turns into nature. ;D
The great deal of reports I hear from Russians are not that of savage patriotism, but of apathy. If the demise of the Soviet Union was arguably a good thing, then the selling-off of its assets was a humanitarian disaster which resulted in one of the worst collective declines in life expectancies and rises in so-called "deaths of despair" in history.
It is a future I sometimes see for the United States - when people lose faith in the idea that any change is possible.
An hour ago Zelensky spoke in the Romanian parliament, comparing Putin with Ceaușescu (not a very good comparison, the latter was a schoolboy compared to the former), thanking Romania for the support we offered to Ukraine and the Ukrainian refugees and promising to respect more and better the rights of the Romanian minority in Ukraine. Nothing exceptional, really, but the good thing is that Romania joined the club of countries whose parliaments Zelensky addressed.
Quote from: fbjim on April 04, 2022, 08:59:14 AM
The great deal of reports I hear from Russians are not that of savage patriotism, but of apathy.
Same here. I'm seeing a lot of videos and reports where participants in rallies are asked why they came there. Usually the answer is something like "they put us on a bus and forced us to come."
As for patriotism, expect the epidemic of draft-dodging to continue. It's widely believed in Russia that if you have a chance to dodge the draft and don't take it, you must be stupid or a loser.
You can also now get up to 15 years in jail for calling the war a war. That's pretty strong incentive to keep your mouth shut.
QuoteIf the demise of the Soviet Union was arguably a good thing, then the selling-off of its assets was a humanitarian disaster which resulted in one of the worst collective declines in life expectancies and rises in so-called "deaths of despair" in history.
Absolutely, and the root of much of what's going on now.
One analysis of some discussions on a public platform:
"We can conclude after studying narratives around keywords and symbols in VK's discussions on the Russian war with Ukraine, that — at least on this platform, in these groups — there is no unified support for the war. VK users, usually considered more conservative, patriotic, and likely to follow Putin's lead, are at the very least skeptical and often angry with or ashamed of Russia for starting this war. They are also not afraid to call it a "war," even after the phrase was prohibited and made punishable by a prison sentence of up to 15 years".
https://globalvoices.org/2022/04/04/war-is-war-vkontakte-users-discuss-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/
My own impression hitherto however has been that a lot of the official, anti-Western propaganda narrative is now widely accepted among the population.
Obviously, it has recently become more anti-Ukrainian as well, in some cases to an extreme degree, asking for the dissolvement of Ukraine, and worse things.
Quote from: fbjim on April 04, 2022, 08:59:14 AM
If the demise of the Soviet Union was arguably a good thing, then the selling-off of its assets was a humanitarian disaster which resulted in one of the worst collective declines in life expectancies and rises in so-called "deaths of despair" in history.
The US didn't send our best in terms of economic advice during the '90s. Instead we sent free marketeers.
While I'm at it, though I'm happy that Anatoly Chubais managed to get out alive, I do think justice would be served if he was just a little bit burned at the stake for his part in the '90s wreckage. Throw in Jeffrey Sachs and Larry Summers, too.
Yes - we basically gave the country over to our greatest University of Chicago ideologues to run experiments on, and well, we see the results.
Quote from: fbjim on April 04, 2022, 10:48:39 AM
Yes - we basically gave the country over to our greatest University of Chicago ideologues to run experiments on, and well, we see the results.
You mean Russia or Chile? :laugh:
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 04, 2022, 10:11:09 AM
One analysis of some discussions on a public platform:
"We can conclude after studying narratives around keywords and symbols in VK's discussions on the Russian war with Ukraine, that — at least on this platform, in these groups — there is no unified support for the war. VK users, usually considered more conservative, patriotic, and likely to follow Putin's lead, are at the very least skeptical and often angry with or ashamed of Russia for starting this war. They are also not afraid to call it a "war," even after the phrase was prohibited and made punishable by a prison sentence of up to 15 years".
https://globalvoices.org/2022/04/04/war-is-war-vkontakte-users-discuss-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/
My own impression hitherto however has been that a lot of the official, anti-Western propaganda narrative is now widely accepted among the population.
Obviously, it has recently become more anti-Ukrainian as well, in some cases to an extreme degree, asking for the dissolvement of Ukraine, and worse things.
It is somewhat strange talking to people I know who support Russia, at least in theory—they all seem united in their belief that Ukraine is a Nazi country and is committing all sorts of atrocities, and should cease to exist, etc, but very few if any of them trust Putin to actually be the one to do this, and there's a lot of "my cousin's girlfriend's brother-in-law who's in the army is in Ukraine right now and says the government has absolutely failed to support the troops or provide adequate intelligence/supplies/etc, there's no organisation or unified command structure, Putin has betrayed the brave patriots of the DPR/LPR" etc. Such views are presumably a minority since Putin retains a ~70% approval rating, but then given how many Russians appear completely apathetic towards the invasion of Ukraine, maybe not.
VK, Russian Telegram channels, etc, are at this point largely avenues for sharing videos of suspected atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces, which run the gamut from almost certainly real (both the Russian military and Ukrainian civil authorities in Mariupol confirmed that a now fairly infamous video showing the rape, torture and murder of a young woman, including a swastika being carved into her corpse, allegedly by Azov Battalion militants, is real, as a body matching the injuries shown in the video was found in an abandoned Azov base—this kind of thing is, moreover, a longstanding part of Azov's M.O. regarding Jews, Roma and etc) to almost certainly fake (apparently the well-documented Russian atrocities in Bucha were in fact committed by Ukrainians, as "proved" by the fact that official UA MoD videos of Ukrainian forces entering the city didn't show any dead bodies... yeah, ok). But even the most obviously propagandised people don't seem to believe the Russian military is actually successfully doing anything to
stop such violence; indeed, if anything they're more upset that Putin and Zelensky are trying to negotiate a peaceful settlement, and are instead calling for Tu-160s to raze Kiev to the ground.
(Given this type of video content I obviously recommend people not try to seek out pro-Russian social media channels unless they have an extremely high tolerance for real-life graphic violence.)
On the ground, Ukrainians do report seeing massive Russian columns heading for the Donbas region, as well as continued Russian airstrikes throughout the country, mostly targeting fuel depots. Russian civilians have spotted additional armour columns moving through Russia towards eastern Ukraine, although whether these are redeployed forces from Kiev/Chernihiv or an additional armoured division that hadn't been deployed yet is obviously not known. Given this evidence, I do think it's quite likely Ukraine will be able to take back Kherson as well, although I suspect Russia will position some forces across the river to prevent them from advancing towards Nova Kakhovka.
Remaining Ukrainian forces in Mariupol remain holed up in the Azovstal plant for the fifth or sixth consecutive day (the rest of the city is under Russian control). The other two major urban areas in Donbas that remain under Ukrainian control, Severodonetsk–Lysychansk and Kramatorsk–Slavyansk, now bear watching as the sites of the next major battles. There are somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian troops dug in on the front lines in this area, with a similar number of Russian troops being deployed and an unknown number of DPR/LPR militia forces. Both defenders and attackers thus have significantly greater numbers than the defenders or attackers of Mariupol, and the apparent first target, Severodonetsk, has only about 100,000 civilian inhabitants. It seems likely that the level of destruction will therefore be significantly greater. Given that Russia is now a bit more willing to negotiate, perhaps things won't get that far, but I'm not especially optimistic.
Quote from: fbjim on April 04, 2022, 10:48:39 AM
Yes - we basically gave the country over to our greatest University of Chicago ideologues to run experiments on, and well, we see the results.
I think it was a Harvard mafia that was most directly involved.
Michele Berdy was a legendary figure in Moscow's expat community. She married a Russian rock musician in 1978 and moved to the Soviet Union, becoming one of the few Westerners living there permanently at that time. And she stayed there, living through all the ups and downs over the decades. Everyone read her column on the Russian language in the Moscow Times; she was also the arts editor there. She was a fixture in Moscow, someone you could count on to be there.
Last month, she and her dog took off for Latvia. It's the end of an era in Moscow if Michele Berdy of all people decides to leave. You can read her story here:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/27/fled-moscow-american-journalist-putin-00020470?fbclid=IwAR2-_ACdvsCSKU21xgfhPmQdwb-Kf4zY-pkJ7lev_N9LPtDUmTioDGbr7Oc
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on April 04, 2022, 12:19:19 PM
Michele Berdy was a legendary figure in Moscow's expat community. She married a Russian rock musician in 1978 and moved to the Soviet Union, becoming one of the few Westerners living there permanently at that time. And she stayed there, living through all the ups and downs over the decades. Everyone read her column on the Russian language in the Moscow Times; she was also the arts editor there. She was a fixture in Moscow, someone you could count on to be there.
Last month, she and her dog took off for Latvia. It's the end of an era in Moscow if Michele Berdy of all people decides to leave. You can read her story here:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/27/fled-moscow-american-journalist-putin-00020470?fbclid=IwAR2-_ACdvsCSKU21xgfhPmQdwb-Kf4zY-pkJ7lev_N9LPtDUmTioDGbr7Oc
A good article, thanks. I read stuff in the Moscow Times regularly & wondered how they've kept publishing some critical articles nowadays.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 04, 2022, 12:55:53 PM
A good article, thanks. I read stuff in the Moscow Times regularly & wondered how they've kept publishing some critical articles nowadays.
They are in Amsterdam now.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 04, 2022, 12:55:53 PM
A good article, thanks. I read stuff in the Moscow Times regularly & wondered how they've kept publishing some critical articles nowadays.
+1
Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on April 04, 2022, 12:19:19 PM
Michele Berdy was a legendary figure in Moscow's expat community. She married a Russian rock musician in 1978 and moved to the Soviet Union, becoming one of the few Westerners living there permanently at that time. And she stayed there, living through all the ups and downs over the decades. Everyone read her column on the Russian language in the Moscow Times; she was also the arts editor there. She was a fixture in Moscow, someone you could count on to be there.
Last month, she and her dog took off for Latvia. It's the end of an era in Moscow if Michele Berdy of all people decides to leave. You can read her story here:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/27/fled-moscow-american-journalist-putin-00020470?fbclid=IwAR2-_ACdvsCSKU21xgfhPmQdwb-Kf4zY-pkJ7lev_N9LPtDUmTioDGbr7Oc
Thank you for posting that link....hard to read...I feel for her and her coworkers.
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on April 05, 2022, 04:28:06 AM
Thank you for posting that link....hard to read...I feel for her and her coworkers.
PD
Yes, very poignant... and drives home how very reminiscent of the Stalin years life in Russia under Putin's regime has become.
Biden urges Putin war crimes trial after Bucha killings (https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-putin-is-war-criminal-calls-war-crimes-trial-2022-04-04/)
This may prove rather challenging:
Charging Putin for potential war crimes is difficult, and any penalty hard to enforce (https://www.npr.org/2022/04/05/1090837686/putin-war-crimes-prosecution-bucha)
It may also take just a little bit of time to put together a trial. For instance, the ICC, which of course neither Russia nor the US are members of, is just beginning to try a leader in the decades old Sudanese slaughter.
Sudan Darfur crisis: ICC to try war crimes suspect (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60976556)
Perhaps Zelenskyy can keep on repeating that obvious war crimes in Ukraine somehow constitute genocide and perhaps someone will believe him and perhaps some type of expedited trial can take place and perhaps Putin will be handed over to the proper authorities forthwith. Lots of things can happen.
Wesley Clark explains the coming action.
https://www.youtube.com/v/oyNCOgNxAtM
So, Russia has in mind a month long campaign that leaves them in control of the territory in the south and east that matters most to them.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPliDeRaAAUegOA?format=jpg&name=large)
Quote from: Todd on April 05, 2022, 06:44:04 AM
Biden urges Putin war crimes trial after Bucha killings (https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-putin-is-war-criminal-calls-war-crimes-trial-2022-04-04/)
This may prove rather challenging:
Charging Putin for potential war crimes is difficult, and any penalty hard to enforce (https://www.npr.org/2022/04/05/1090837686/putin-war-crimes-prosecution-bucha)
It may also take just a little bit of time to put together a trial. For instance, the ICC, which of course neither Russia nor the US are members of, is just beginning to try a leader in the decades old Sudanese slaughter.
Sudan Darfur crisis: ICC to try war crimes suspect (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60976556)
Perhaps Zelenskyy can keep on repeating that obvious war crimes in Ukraine somehow constitute genocide and perhaps someone will believe him and perhaps some type of expedited trial can take place and perhaps Putin will be handed over to the proper authorities forthwith. Lots of things can happen.
Not to be glib, but it's been a long-standing tenet that only Africans get successfully charged with war crimes by the ICC.
Quote from: krummholz on April 05, 2022, 06:09:23 AM
Yes, very poignant... and drives home how very reminiscent of the Stalin years life in Russia under Putin's regime has become.
Yes. And I learned something new: what rapping ones knuckles on something means. :(
I'm glad that she has her dog for company.
PD
Quote from: fbjim on April 05, 2022, 08:30:51 AM
Not to be glib, but it's been a long-standing tenet that only Africans get successfully charged with war crimes by the ICC.
That's not the same outfit that put the Serbs in jail? Once they were finally caught they were convicted and are all still there except the one that died while awaiting trial (Milosevec?). It is a very long and tedious process, but eventually they all seem to get caught in the end. Not to say Vlad the Mad will, given his peculiar circumstance, but the system itself seems inexorable. Maybe Africans have a higher number of atrocities committed per capita?
8)
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on April 05, 2022, 09:18:46 AM
Yes. And I learned something new: what rapping ones knuckles on something means. :(
I'm glad that she has her dog for company.
PD
Ditto... and yes, me too.
I know about the former critique of Navalny for having been too much of a Russian nationalist previously etc. But in the current situation (also), he is a brave man, as illustrated by this, from today. Seems willing to maybe get another 15 years sentence ...
https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1511368941758787592
Quote from: fbjim on April 05, 2022, 08:30:51 AMNot to be glib, but it's been a long-standing tenet that only Africans get successfully charged with war crimes by the ICC.
To date all prosecutions have been of Africans. The ICC is investigating cases in multiple countries, though, including Georgia, Venezuela, the Philippines, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, Palestine - and now Ukraine. Perhaps the ICC targets Putin. He may very well be terrified of such an investigation.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 05, 2022, 09:20:47 AMThat's not the same outfit that put the Serbs in jail?
No.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 05, 2022, 09:20:47 AMMaybe Africans have a higher number of atrocities committed per capita?
Probably not, and if that metric were used, surely The House of Saud would face a serious reckoning, among others.
Quote from: Todd on April 05, 2022, 11:29:48 AM
........and if that metric were used, surely The House of Saud would face a serious reckoning, among others.
Indeed.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 05, 2022, 09:20:47 AM
That's not the same outfit that put the Serbs in jail? Once they were finally caught they were convicted and are all still there except the one that died while awaiting trial (Milosevec?).
Yes, that's correct.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 05, 2022, 09:20:47 AMThat's not the same outfit that put the Serbs in jail?
Quote from: Herman on April 05, 2022, 11:35:30 PM
Yes, that's correct.
The
Rome Statute (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) that founded the International Criminal Court only went into force on 1 July 2002.
Since the Balkan wars after the break up of Yugoslavia took place in the 1990s, war crimes were tried by a special tribunal: the
International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (https://www.icty.org/).
Which doesn't take away from the fact that this is a recent example in which war crimes by other than Africans were tried by an international tribunal. The problem with international justice is not ethnicity, but the fact that superpowers and countries protected by superpowers are practically immune.
With the Rome Satute in particular there is the issue of key states refusing to submit to the jurisdiction of the ICC. The US, Israel and Russia have signed but have not ratified the Statute. China and India have not even signed. Which gives a a clear indication of the state of the rule of international law, which is bad and has been undermined by many countries - including nations that consider themselves free and democratic.
Quote from: Que on April 06, 2022, 12:50:27 AMThe US, Israel and Russia have signed but have not ratified the Statute. China and India have not even signed. Which gives a a clear indication of the state of the rule of international law, which is bad and has been undermined by many countries - including nations that consider themselves free and democratic.
International law is a fiction, or an aspirational dream if one wants to apply a nicer sounding label. Even signatories to the Rome Statute engage in vile acts that result in the death of civilians. France has come under intense scrutiny for its recent actions in Africa, for instance. And of course, "the allies" destroyed Libya a few years back. Powerful nations can act as they have always acted.
What do you think is going on for these Russian troops to fall out of a moving troop transport?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwcxZJyW0iA
It's just such a bizarre sight, makes me think they were pushed off. Perhaps getting into a fight with other troops, how else could no one of noticed they were missing unless intentional?
At least the Estonians are sending Houwitsers, long range artillery 155 mm, to the Ukraine, that could be a game changer in the Donbass.
The Czechs are sending tanks and armored personnel carriers. The tanks are T-72s and according to an insanely reliable source* they are really quite good in spite of their age. The Ukes operate them expertly.
* It's many sources, but the insane part comes from Cap and his merry band, who compared the worlds tanks in DCS.
Quote from: relm1 on April 06, 2022, 05:24:40 AM
What do you think is going on for these Russian troops to fall out of a moving troop transport?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwcxZJyW0iA
It's just such a bizarre sight, makes me think they were pushed off. Perhaps getting into a fight with other troops, how else could no one of noticed they were missing unless intentional?
I didn't see anyone pushed out of or falling out of a vehicle. I saw two men running after a truck. One seemed to reach or nearly reach the back of the truck and then fall while either trying to hold on or after failing to find purchase. As for what's going on there i have no idea. Full up? They just didn't like those two guys? In any case it seems intentional. Or maybe it was just a game and they stopped for them later.
The Price of Hegemony: Can America Learn to Use Its Power? (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-04-06/russia-ukraine-war-price-hegemony?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The%20Price%20of%20Hegemony&utm_content=20220406&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Neocon/Liberal Interventionist (it is possible to be one then the other - quite easily) Robert Kagan concedes, sort of, that the US helped establish the conditions of the current crisis:
Quote from: Robert KaganPutin alone is to blame for his actions, but the invasion of Ukraine is taking place in a historical and geopolitical context in which the United States has played and still plays the principal role, and Americans must grapple with this fact.
Alas, a good portion of his piece veers perilously close to America as the Shining City on a Hill which naturally acts as benign and accidental hegemon with something approaching omnipotence (the bit about the 20s/30s is a bit off, to put it mildly), and it contains this unabashed defense of preemptive war:
Quote from: Robert KaganIt is better for the United States to risk confrontation with belligerent powers when they are in the early stages of ambition and expansion, not after they have already consolidated substantial gains.
Bomb early, bomb often.
Quote from: "Harry" on April 06, 2022, 06:08:24 AM
At least the Estonians are sending Houwitsers, long range artillery 155 mm, to the Ukraine, that could be a game changer in the Donbass.
Estonia bought those from Finland in 2009 and originally they are from Germany from where Finland bought them in the 90's. Estonia needed the permission from both Germany and Finland to send them to Ukraine.
" A man rams his vehicle into the fence of the Russian Embassy in Bucharest, Romania. The attacker dies after setting himself on fire inside the car. "
Florestan ... please check in! ???
Quote from: 71 dB on April 06, 2022, 01:44:08 PM
Estonia bought those from Finland in 2009 and originally they are from Germany from where Finland bought them in the 90's. Estonia needed the permission from both Germany and Finland to send them to Ukraine.
Coordinated effort.
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 06, 2022, 09:12:46 AM
I didn't see anyone pushed out of or falling out of a vehicle. I saw two men running after a truck. One seemed to reach or nearly reach the back of the truck and then fall while either trying to hold on or after failing to find purchase. As for what's going on there i have no idea. Full up? They just didn't like those two guys? In any case it seems intentional. Or maybe it was just a game and they stopped for them later.
Just seems very, very odd if an invading force that's losing is playing a game in occupied territory. I see it as they desperately wanted back on the truck that didn't stop for them while knowing troops were left behind.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPqq8y0aIAQseWx?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Significant Ukrainian progress towards Kherson in the south. Perhaps they'll might be able to cut Russian supply lines from the Crimea.
Quote from: Scion7 on April 06, 2022, 02:43:05 PM
" A man rams his vehicle into the fence of the Russian Embassy in Bucharest, Romania. The attacker dies after setting himself on fire inside the car. "
Florestan ... please check in! ???
It actually happened yesterday at 6:00 in the morning. The man was a lunatic who had just been convicted to 15 years in prison for raping his step-daughter (another trial was pending, for raping his own daughter). Of course, the Russian ambassador made a big fuss about it, claiming it was a terrorrist acttion inspired by anti-Russian hysteria --- nonsense. Actually His Excellency Mr. Valery Kuzmin is upset because Romania expelled 10 Russian diplomats for spying. If you ask me, he should have been expelled together with them: his provocative anti-Romanian statements over the years are notorious.
Quote from: relm1 on April 06, 2022, 04:54:52 PM
Just seems very, very odd if an invading force that's losing is playing a game in occupied territory. I see it as they desperately wanted back on the truck that didn't stop for them while knowing troops were left behind.
Yes, certainly. I agree. And I apologize for my earlier levity. They had to have known they were abandoning their compatriots.
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 07, 2022, 04:42:30 AM
Yes, certainly. I agree. And I apologize for my earlier levity. They had to have known they were abandoning their compatriots.
How can/could they trust any of their fellow soldiers? It's like each man is out for themselves. Why are any of them bothering to "fight"?
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on April 07, 2022, 04:48:14 AM
How can/could they trust any of their fellow soldiers? It's like each man is out for themselves. Why are any of them bothering to "fight"?
PD
Reportedly there are Chechen troops following the Russian attacking forces, whose responsibility is ensuring discipline and punishing acts of cowardice and deserters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadyrovites
So in at least some Russian units, options for escape may be practically non-existent.
Quote from: LKB on April 07, 2022, 07:25:54 AM
Reportedly there are Chechen troops following the Russian attacking forces, whose responsibility is ensuring discipline and punishing acts of cowardice and deserters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadyrovites
So in at least some Russian units, options for escape may be practically non-existent.
And, goodness knows, the Chechens hold a grudge.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 07, 2022, 07:44:22 AM
And, goodness knows, the Chechens hold a grudge.
There's a Chechen unit in the Ukrainian army too.
Some media reporting here in DK about incidents of Ukrainian soldiers killing POWs. This happens on both sides, and the stories are supported by a Danish elite sniper, who didn't participate in them, but says that he expects to reach more than 100 killed Russians this week. Today, Peskov also admitted that Russian total losses had been 'significant'; some say perhaps 45,000 men.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 07, 2022, 11:43:25 AM
There's a Chechen unit in the Ukrainian army too.
Some media reporting here in DK about incidents of Ukrainian soldiers killing POWs. This happens on both sides, and the stories are supported by a Danish elite sniper, who didn't participate in them, but says that he expects to reach more than 100 killed Russians this week. Today, Peskov also admitted that Russian total losses had been 'significant'; some say perhaps 45,000 men.
Well, if they weren't happening before one can be sure they will now as retaliation. I assume by losses you mean casualties, that is, the sum of deaths plus injuries sufficient to take a soldier out of action?
I've seen the 45,000 figure and it seems reasonable as a count of losses from all causes.
The coming battle is supposed to favor the Russians, and it would if the Russians were anything like their prewar reputation would indicate. They aren't, but I'm thinking they aren't as bad as their performance might suggest either. It looks to me like the Ukes are very good. Not only are they using their excellent training to the fullest, they are also on the cutting edge of a new kind of warfare. They are the dronemasters.
The Russians have a plan they might not have enough forces to implement. All the elements must work to make the pocket and close it, while the Ukes are completely aware of the danger and might launch strikes against the encirclers before they get where they need to be.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 07, 2022, 11:43:25 AM
There's a Chechen unit in the Ukrainian army too.
Some media reporting here in DK about incidents of Ukrainian soldiers killing POWs. This happens on both sides, and the stories are supported by a Danish elite sniper, who didn't participate in them, but says that he expects to reach more than 100 killed Russians this week. Today, Peskov also admitted that Russian total losses had been 'significant'; some say perhaps 45,000 men.
There is at least one video of such an incident going the rounds, apparently vetted by the NY Times before they released it. The unit involved is claimed to be composed of Georgians fighting as volunteers for Ukraine.
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 07, 2022, 12:39:44 PM
Well, if they weren't happening before one can be sure they will now as retaliation. I assume by losses you mean casualties, that is, the sum of deaths plus injuries sufficient to take a soldier out of action?
Yes.
Why their tank turrets are often blown off: there's a circle of grenades under them; not good from a safety perspective. The crews just disappear.
https://twitter.com/Peter__Leonard/status/1512164631749578771
A former Putin advisor until 2011, Pavlovsky, hopes for the 9th of May to be the date of a halt to the war, but he is also pessimistic.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-trap-pavlovsky/31787269.html
Zhirinovsky In Memoriam (the story goes, because he choose to take eight covid vaccines):
https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1511730620568846343
Ukraine Army Is Using 'Terminator Drones' to 'Scare Russians' Into Retreat (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-army-using-terminator-drones-scare-russians-retreat-1696192)
What the world needs now is more cheap war propaganda that then gets picked up and trumpeted by the mainstream press.
Quote from: Todd on April 08, 2022, 09:57:54 AM
Ukraine Army Is Using 'Terminator Drones' to 'Scare Russians' Into Retreat (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-army-using-terminator-drones-scare-russians-retreat-1696192)
What the world needs now is more cheap war propaganda that then gets picked up and trumpeted by the mainstream press.
Yes, I agree! Especially when it shows a spent delivery system for cluster bombs intentionally deployed against civilian targets.
From https://www.economist.com/1843/2022/04/07/a-month-in-kyiv-soldiers-funerals-and-looters-tied-to-lampposts [Possible paywall]
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/1424/801/90/media-assets/image/1843_20220407_RONHAVIT_001.jpg)
The blitz, with smartphones A man accused of looting is tied up by the armed forces, awaiting arrest by the police (opening image).
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/640/423/90/media-assets/image/1843_20220407_RONHAVIT_010.jpg)
Ukrainians have no patience with looters.
Near the bridge the group of journalists I was with came across three men tied to a post with clingfilm. Their trousers had been pulled down around their ankles and their mouths stuffed with potatoes. It was bizarre, although the locals didn't seem shocked. They told us that these men were Ukrainians who had been stealing from refugees and looting empty houses.
There were similar pictures of gypsies tied to lampposts with green dye on their faces, because they had been accused of pickpocketing. And in peace time homosexuals had their face coloured with green dye too.
Those potatoes are dehumanising, which makes inhumane treatment more acceptable. I can't remember seeing anything like it, except in medieval woodcuts.
Quote from: Mandryka on April 08, 2022, 07:09:08 PM
There were similar pictures of gypsies tied to lampposts with green dye on their faces, because they had been accused of pickpocketing. And in peace time homosexuals had their face coloured with green dye too.
Sources?
EDIT: Never mind, found some information. A regular feature of public life in Ukraine and Russia it seems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelyonka_attack
Though I can't find any stories about it happening to homosexuals, and the sources I can find for the gypsy story are... interesting. They appear to all stem from "RT".. which is "Russia Today". A state-funded media network. Guess which state funds it.
SECOND EDIT: I can now find a report of LGBT folk being attacked with the Zelyonka dye. In Russia.
Quote from: Madiel on April 08, 2022, 07:27:02 PM
Sources?
EDIT: Never mind, found some information. A regular feature of public life in Ukraine and Russia it seems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelyonka_attack
Though I can't find any stories about it happening to homosexuals, and the sources I can find for the gypsy story are... interesting. They appear to all stem from "RT".. which is "Russia Today". A state-funded media network. Guess which state funds it.
SECOND EDIT: I can now find a report of LGBT folk being attacked with the Zelyonka dye. In Russia.
Yes, you found this presumably
https://mobile.twitter.com/BcatMonitoring/status/1172211216451809283
If, as polls show, Marine Le Pen does have a chance to win France's Presidency, then Putin would have a second Trojan horse in the EU, and for that matter a far more important and influential one than Hungary's Orban. Add to this that the Podemitas fraction of the Spanish government is overtly or covertly pro-Putin and anti-NATO and it becomes clear that Macron's victory is essential for preserving EU and NATO unity of thought and action, although I'm far from being a fan of his.
While I don't endorse bad treatment of people no matter what they have done I can't help thinking that those guys dehumanized themselves to begin with, by looting from refugees' houses.
Quote from: Florestan on April 08, 2022, 11:51:26 PM
While I don't endorse bad treatment of people no matter what they have done I can't help thinking that those guys dehumanized themselves to begin with, by looting from refugees' houses.
I know societies do that sort of thing in war - think of what the French did in the épuration - but it is still uncivilised.
Quote from: Mandryka on April 09, 2022, 12:07:34 AM
I know societies do that sort of thing in war - think of what the French did in the épuration - but it is still uncivilised.
It is, although less uncivlised than bombing a railway station full of refugees.
Quote from: Florestan on April 09, 2022, 12:16:00 AM
It is, although less uncivlised than bombing a railway station full of refugees.
Of course. Two wrongs don't make a right. Let's not forget that those people bound and gagged have not been tried.
Quote from: Mandryka on April 09, 2022, 12:24:12 AM
Of course. Two wrongs don't make a right. Let's not forget that those people bound and gagged have not been tried.
Why, yes, agreed, justice should be done properly --- but the Ukrainians (some of them, actually) might perhaps be excused for behaving the way they do: you know, they are under a little stress right now.
Quote from: Mandryka on April 09, 2022, 12:24:12 AM
Of course. Two wrongs don't make a right. Let's not forget that those people bound and gagged have not been tried.
It doesn't seem unlawful to apprehend people that are caught in the act, and tie them up. Of course the way it is done is unnecessarily demeaning. But in a disorderly situation of armed conflict in which certain men start looting and raping, they are lucky not to have been shot on the spot.
Quote from: Que on April 09, 2022, 12:33:23 AM
It doesn't seem unlawful to apprehend people that are caught in the act, and tie them up. Of course the way it is done is unnecessarily demeaning. But in a disorderly situation of armed conflict in which certain men start looting and raping, they are lucky not to have been shot on the spot.
This as well.
Quote from: Florestan on April 08, 2022, 11:51:26 PM
While I don't endorse bad treatment of people no matter what they have done I can't help thinking that those guys dehumanized themselves to begin with, by looting from refugees' houses.
Quote from: Que on April 09, 2022, 12:33:23 AM
It doesn't seem unlawful to apprehend people that are caught in the act, and tie them up. Of course the way it is done is unnecessarily demeaning. But in a disorderly situation of armed conflict in which certain men start looting and raping, they are lucky not to have been shot on the spot.
All manner of behavior can be rationalized and explained away. War offers the broadest, most reliable context for this. Maybe Hobbes was on to something, after all.
Quote from: Todd on April 09, 2022, 05:48:18 AM
All manner of behavior can be rationalized and explained away. War offers the broadest, most reliable context for this. Maybe Hobbes was on to something, after all.
Todd going the moralist. Indeed this effing war turned the world upside down. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on April 09, 2022, 05:51:14 AM
Todd going the moralist.
No, just observing that there is nothing new under the sun.
Quote from: Mandryka on April 08, 2022, 11:47:30 PM
Yes, you found this presumably
https://mobile.twitter.com/BcatMonitoring/status/1172211216451809283
No, because presumably I was looking for something more than a tweet from 3 years ago.
One of the moderate experts here, Claus Mathiesen, no longer excluding oncoming, open war participation by NATO, because of the Russian mobilization with the continued attacks on Ukraine and especially the civilians there. Maybe a Russian, limited attack on Poland because of the arms deliveries. China would stay out. Not nice prospects if so.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 09, 2022, 10:18:24 AM
One of the moderate experts here, Claus Mathiesen, no longer excluding oncoming, open war participation by NATO, because of the Russian mobilization with the continued attacks on Ukraine and especially the civilians there. Maybe a Russian, limited attack on Poland because of the arms deliveries. China would stay out. Not nice prospects if so.
A Russian attack on Poland, either limited or all-out, means WW3.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 07, 2022, 09:25:12 PM
Yes.
Why their tank turrets are often blown off: there's a circle of grenades under them; not good from a safety perspective. The crews just disappear.
https://twitter.com/Peter__Leonard/status/1512164631749578771
A former Putin advisor until 2011, Pavlovsky, hopes for the 9th of May to be the date of a halt to the war, but he is also pessimistic.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-trap-pavlovsky/31787269.html
Zhirinovsky In Memoriam (the story goes, because he choose to take eight covid vaccines):
https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1511730620568846343
Thank you for those links...quite interesting...particularly the one about the tanks [I didn't have time earlier to read all of the one about Zhirinovsky. Like you, I've been hearing about the 9th of May for some time now.].
PD
Quote from: Florestan on April 09, 2022, 10:28:56 AM
A Russian attack on Poland, either limited or all-out, means WW3.
And given the evident ineptitude of Russia's conventional forces, attacking a NATO member would seem to be extremely inadvisable. Even aside from Article 5, Poland might well be able to handle the Russians on her own.
A deniable covert strike against Ukraine's supply chain would make more sense, but as the West have demonstrated some impressive Intel regarding Russian intentions, that capability may not be there.
I'm guessing that Putin will simply continue rubbling Ukrainian cities and slaughtering civilians until either a) Zelenskyy agrees to terms acceptable to him, or b) an unforseen event makes continuing the war impossible.
Honour where honour is due - the UK has been generous:
Last night No 10 said Britain would send 120 armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missile systems to Ukraine. The missiles can do serious damage to Russian warships and could be used to tackle the Russian navy siege of Black Sea ports. The UK pledged £100m in military assistance last week, including another 800 anti-tank missiles, more anti-aircraft weapons, "suicide drones", which hover over the battlefield before attacking a target, and helmets, body armour and night-vision goggles.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 09, 2022, 10:18:24 AM
One of the moderate experts here, Claus Mathiesen, no longer excluding oncoming, open war participation by NATO, because of the Russian mobilization with the continued attacks on Ukraine and especially the civilians there. Maybe a Russian, limited attack on Poland because of the arms deliveries. China would stay out. Not nice prospects if so.
According to some reports, Russia is quickly depleting its strategic military reserves in this war and cannot afford to fight on another front.
Instead of another Russian attack, this situation would IMO rather open up the possibility of others taking the opportunity to make their move now Russia's hands are tied. Finland joining NATO is already on the table. But what about coup or a popular uprising in Belarus? Georgia taking up arms against Russian occupying forces?
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on April 09, 2022, 11:41:42 AM
Thank you for those links...quite interesting...particularly the one about the tanks [I didn't have time earlier to read all of the one about Zhirinovsky. Like you, I've been hearing about the 9th of May for some time now.].
PD
You're welcome.
I guess there's a limit on how much of all this war info one can cope with ... and with all sorts of opinions on the future. One can hope, that after the 9th of May, the violence will recede somewhat. But the insistent cynicism of the Russian side has astonished a lot of people; I too was in doubt, when I posted the very early Ukrainian prognosis for oncoming, systematic violence against civilians etc.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 10, 2022, 05:00:38 AM
You're welcome.
I guess there's a limit on how much of all this war info one can cope with ... and with all sorts of opinions on the future. One can hope, that after the 9th of May, the violence will recede somewhat. But the insistent cynicism of the Russian side has astonished a lot of people; I too was in doubt, when I posted the very early Ukrainian prognosis for oncoming, systematic violence against civilians etc.
Yes, I'm trying to not check in as much (as in listening to and reading the news) as it's quite draining plus there are certain things that I need to get done in life. That said, I did do some reading on Radio Free Europe and found this article to be quite interesting and illuminating. https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-russia-invasion-ukraine-fighting/31795637.html There's also another one on there about people getting turned in to the FSB by various folks: some thinking the FSB themselves, parents of students, etc. There was also something on CNN recently about Russian military conversations being intercepted with a commander(?) ordering a soldier to kill civilians after the soldier told him what he had seen. https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/04/08/audio-intercepts-russian-soldiers-chance-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/russia-ukraine-military-conflict/
Surprised to see Boris J. walking with Zelensky in Kviv. I guess his advisors thought that he was far enough away from the current fighting that he could safely go to Ukraine.
PD
Yeesh: Russian students are turning in teachers who don't back the war
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-10/general-who-ran-syria-operation-to-lead-russia-troops-in-ukraine
Russia has appointed a new commander for its operations in Ukraine as it refocuses its war effort in the east, having failed to secure territory around the capital, Kyiv.
General Alexander Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military District, will now lead Russian troops on the ground, according to Western security officials and diplomats with knowledge of the change. The Kremlin has not announced the appointment.
Dvornikov, 60, has held several senior positions in the Russian military, including army commander of the Far Eastern Military District. He notably oversaw Moscow's forces in Syria in 2015 and 2016, where they fought alongside Syrian government troops in a conflict where President Bashar al-Assad was accused of using chemical weapons against his own people.
...
Dvornikov had been responsible so far for operations in the south and east of Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War*. The lack of a single overall commander had "clearly hindered the cooperation of Russian forces," it said in a report dated April 9.
*I had to google the name of this institution, which (sloppy journalism IMO) was not properly identified in the article. It's a US-based think tank.
Quote from: T. D. on April 10, 2022, 01:24:30 PM
General Alexander Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military District, will now lead Russian troops on the ground,
How many days / weeks until Ukrainian snippers shoot him dead, I wonder. ;D
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 10, 2022, 12:39:35 PM
Yeesh: Russian students are turning in teachers who don't back the war
https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2022/04/10/russian-students-are-turning-in-teachers-who-dont-back-the-war/ (https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2022/04/10/russian-students-are-turning-in-teachers-who-dont-back-the-war/)
I'm not surprised. If you're going to bring back the USSR in all its former glory, start with one of the hardest pieces in its backbone: the informers network. Which of course goes hand in hand with, and is dependent on, indoctrinating children from their tenderest age.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 10, 2022, 12:39:35 PM
Yeesh: Russian students are turning in teachers who don't back the war
Next there will be new offences for 'thought crime' and 'face crime'. Orwell's work is just as relevant now as it ever has been.
Quote from: Florestan on April 11, 2022, 12:19:30 AM
How many days / weeks until Ukrainian snippers shoot him dead, I wonder. ;D
I do think this means that the troops will be on the ground. He will be wherever a long distance drone or a switchblade cannot reach him.
Quote from: The new erato on April 11, 2022, 01:51:22 AM
I do think this means that the troops will be on the ground. He will be wherever a long distance drone or a switchblade cannot reach him.
Ah I see. Too bad then, I was hoping for the bastard to bite the dust as soon as possible.
Quote from: Florestan on April 11, 2022, 01:53:21 AM
Ah I see. Too bad then, I was hoping for the bastard to bite the dust as soon as possible.
QFT. We'll see, my comment was partly a joke, the Russians don't seem to be safe anywhere, and modern weapons are flowing in.
I am completely lost as a person because of this war. I try hard to concentrate on things that takes my mind out of this lunacy, but it is overhelming. It is not so much anxiety and fear anymore, but depression and total loss of hope that mankind learns someday to make this damn stupid planet a good place for EVERYONE, not just for power-hungry madmen and oligarchs...
Life has beaten me to the ground. Covid-19 pandemic and this finished me. I don't know how I can ever recover from this.
Good things happen in my life, but those tend to be pathetic compared to the bad things (in regards of how they make me feel). When Ju-On 1 & 2 movies were released on Blu-ray in Nordic countries, I was really happy about it for a few days. Good, but this Ukraine thing has caused me MASSIVE amount to NEGATIVE feelings for 6 weeks now! There is no "balancing out".
As a very introverted person I am good at being alone, but when I am bombed this much with shocking things (Trumpism, Brexit, Covid-19, war in Ukraine etc.), processing things "by myself" almost completely alone is HARD!
Quote from: 71 dB on April 11, 2022, 08:54:16 AM
I am completely lost as a person because of this war. I try hard to concentrate on things that takes my mind out of this lunacy, but it is overhelming. It is not so much anxiety and fear anymore, but depression and total loss of hope that mankind learns someday to make this damn stupid planet a good place for EVERYONE, not just for power-hungry madmen and oligarchs...
Life has beaten me to the ground. Covid-19 pandemic and this finished me. I don't know how I can ever recover from this.
Good things happen in my life, but those tend to be pathetic compared to the bad things (in regards of how they make me feel). When Ju-On 1 & 2 movies were released on Blu-ray in Nordic countries, I was really happy about it for a few days. Good, but this Ukraine thing has caused me MASSIVE amount to NEGATIVE feelings for 6 weeks now! There is no "balancing out".
As a very introverted person I am good at being alone, but when I am bombed this much with shocking things (Trumpism, Brexit, Covid-19, war in Ukraine etc.), processing things "by myself" almost completely alone is HARD!
I think that many of us share your views - this is, indeed, a horrible time, but having to face it on your own can make it more difficult. There's a quite I like: 'the answer is always to persevere'.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 11, 2022, 08:54:16 AM
I am completely lost as a person because of this war. I try hard to concentrate on things that takes my mind out of this lunacy, but it is overhelming. It is not so much anxiety and fear anymore, but depression and total loss of hope that mankind learns someday to make this damn stupid planet a good place for EVERYONE, not just for power-hungry madmen and oligarchs...
It's human nature; people want things for themselves but also have a tendency to form groups for protection and advancement which then come into conflict with other groups. Think about things other than humans - the natural world around you, other species of life, the sky, the history and evolution of the Universe.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 11, 2022, 08:54:16 AM
I am completely lost as a person because of this war. I try hard to concentrate on things that takes my mind out of this lunacy, but it is overhelming. It is not so much anxiety and fear anymore, but depression and total loss of hope that mankind learns someday to make this damn stupid planet a good place for EVERYONE, not just for power-hungry madmen and oligarchs...
Life has beaten me to the ground. Covid-19 pandemic and this finished me. I don't know how I can ever recover from this.
Good things happen in my life, but those tend to be pathetic compared to the bad things (in regards of how they make me feel). When Ju-On 1 & 2 movies were released on Blu-ray in Nordic countries, I was really happy about it for a few days. Good, but this Ukraine thing has caused me MASSIVE amount to NEGATIVE feelings for 6 weeks now! There is no "balancing out".
As a very introverted person I am good at being alone, but when I am bombed this much with shocking things (Trumpism, Brexit, Covid-19, war in Ukraine etc.), processing things "by myself" almost completely alone is HARD!
Poju, please don't take this the wrong way, but do you have access to any mental health professionals? Seeing this awful brutal invasion grind on, day after day, with the utter inhumanity of the invaders on display on the news every evening, is a form of trauma I think. I don't think any of us is immune. A Stoic outlook is probably necessary, as Jeffrey suggests, but it may not be sufficient. When these events start to cause chronic depression, and you feel ill-equipped to deal with it alone, it might be time to reach out to someone. Just a thought.
Kind regards.
Quote from: vandermolen on April 11, 2022, 09:39:50 AM
I think that many of us share your views - this is, indeed, a horrible time, but having to face it on your own can make it more difficult. There's a quite I like: 'the answer is always to persevere'.
Of course. This is certainly hard for any reasonable person.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 11, 2022, 09:50:49 AM
It's human nature; people want things for themselves but also have a tendency to form groups for protection and advancement which then come into conflict with other groups. Think about things other than humans - the natural world around you, other species of life, the sky, the history and evolution of the Universe.
That is actually a great advice! Thanks! I will try it! 0:)
Quote from: krummholz on April 11, 2022, 09:57:15 AM
Poju, please don't take this the wrong way, but do you have access to any mental health professionals? Seeing this awful brutal invasion grind on, day after day, with the utter inhumanity of the invaders on display on the news every evening, is a form of trauma I think. I don't think any of us is immune. A Stoic outlook is probably necessary, as Jeffrey suggests, but it may not be sufficient. When these events start to cause chronic depression, and you feel ill-equipped to deal with it alone, it might be time to reach out to someone. Just a thought.
Kind regards.
Don't worry, you post is most polite. ;)
In fact I do and I can talk about these things. I needed it to do something to the anxiety and fears. It helped, but now after 6 weeks of war and after the news about all the brutality against civilians one starts to ask "Should I smile in a World like this? When are the better times coming?" Last year I was able to improve my state of mind a lot and things looked good, but then this happened and all that work last year is nullified. Now I just need to learn to tolerate war in Europe... ...I don't know how "chronic" this will be. Maybe I feel better next week. Maybe I won't... :P
We should by all means try to smile, and be kind to our fellow men (and women), just to reduce the pain and awfulness of this time.
It's also helpful not to be connected to the news and internet all the time.
Quote from: Herman on April 11, 2022, 12:03:33 PM
We should by all means try to smile, and be kind to our fellow men (and women), just to reduce the pain and awfulness of this time.
It's also helpful not to be connected to the news and internet all the time.
I completely endorse this.
Quote from: Herman on April 11, 2022, 12:03:33 PM
We should by all means try to smile, and be kind to our fellow men (and women), just to reduce the pain and awfulness of this time.
It's also helpful not to be connected to the news and internet all the time.
Yes, I've come to call my computer "the outrage machine." Hey 71db: Don't tolerate the war, stop thinking about it for a while. You suffering too isn't going to help anyone involved and the war will get along without you watching it.
Quote from: Herman on April 11, 2022, 12:03:33 PM
We should by all means try to smile, and be kind to our fellow men (and women), just to reduce the pain and awfulness of this time.
I do agree.
Quote from: Herman on April 11, 2022, 12:03:33 PMIt's also helpful not to be connected to the news and internet all the time.
Cutting the time spent on following the news was massively helpful in reducing anxiety and fear for me. I also avoid sensationalism and favour news organisations that simply state the facts as they are.
Concentrating on my hobbies etc. was another way ro deal with this. Now the problem is the lack of good news (about the war ending).
Quote from: 71 dB on April 11, 2022, 08:54:16 AM
I am completely lost as a person because of this war. I try hard to concentrate on things that takes my mind out of this lunacy, but it is overhelming. It is not so much anxiety and fear anymore, but depression and total loss of hope that mankind learns someday to make this damn stupid planet a good place for EVERYONE, not just for power-hungry madmen and oligarchs...
Life has beaten me to the ground. Covid-19 pandemic and this finished me. I don't know how I can ever recover from this.
Good things happen in my life, but those tend to be pathetic compared to the bad things (in regards of how they make me feel). When Ju-On 1 & 2 movies were released on Blu-ray in Nordic countries, I was really happy about it for a few days. Good, but this Ukraine thing has caused me MASSIVE amount to NEGATIVE feelings for 6 weeks now! There is no "balancing out".
As a very introverted person I am good at being alone, but when I am bombed this much with shocking things (Trumpism, Brexit, Covid-19, war in Ukraine etc.), processing things "by myself" almost completely alone is HARD!
Poju, I say this as a friend and as someone who has suffered from several mental setbacks in my life, you mustn't let the negativity get to you. Be above it all. Keep your mind occupied and never let the enemy win! The enemy I'm referring to is the black force within us all that continuously keeps us down. You can overcome this, my friend! You've lasted this long and you will continue to do. I know it must be easy for me to say such things when I'm an ocean away and you're essentially in Russia's backyard, but please don't let the darkness consume you. If you ever want to do a video chat, then let me know. I'll be happy to talk to you and if anything gives you comfort, it's knowing that at least you don't look like me. ;D
Quote from: Mirror Image on April 11, 2022, 01:55:04 PM
Poju, I say this as a friend and as someone who has suffered from several mental setbacks in my life, you mustn't let the negativity get to you. Be above it all. Keep your mind occupied and never let the enemy win! The enemy I'm referring to is the black force within us all that continuously keeps us down. You can overcome this, my friend! You've lasted this long and you will continue to do. I know it must be easy for me to say such things when I'm an ocean away and you're essentially in Russia's backyard, but please don't let the darkness consume you. If you ever want to do a video chat, then let me know. I'll be happy to talk to you and if anything gives you comfort, it's knowing that at least you don't look like me. ;D
Thanks for your support! Monday was a difficult day for me. I didn't feel great physically. I felt ill and tired. That's why things felt darker than they feel on a better day. I feel better already. It helped to write here and get supporting responses. Thank you everyone! 0:)
There are talks about Finland applying for Nato membership next month. The overall opinion about Nato in Finland has gone from "Membership not needed at this time" to "Finland needs Nato, because Russia is a terror state" in 2 months. If Le Pen becomes the next president of France it could mean problems for Finland joining Nato so that is one thing to worry about for the next 2 weeks. The Nato panic is massive over here, but on the other hand Russia is militarily weakened in Ukraine and Finland has strong defence compared to size. Our artillery for example is 7 times bigger than that of Germany!
Ukraine War: Russia warns Sweden and Finland against Nato membership (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61066503) (BBC)
Another "Western provocation".....
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that "the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation".
For a rather different perspective on Russia and NATO, try this from Bill Clinton: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clinton-nato-expansion-ukraine/629499/
Quote from: Que on April 11, 2022, 10:02:41 PM
Ukraine War: Russia warns Sweden and Finland against Nato membership (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61066503) (BBC)
Another "Western provocation".....
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that "the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation".
Russian general, to Finnish leadership:
" I must warn you, joining NATO may result in Russian forces entering your country to secure our border. "
Finnish leadership to Russian general, after reviewing Russian performance in Ukraine:
" Promise? "
>:D
Quote from: Madiel on April 11, 2022, 11:20:19 PM
For a rather different perspective on Russia and NATO, try this from Bill Clinton: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clinton-nato-expansion-ukraine/629499/
Thanks for this.
Quote from: Carl Bildt, former prime-minister of SwedenIt wasn't NATO seeking to go East - it was former Soviet satellites and republics wishing to go West.
Exactly.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 11, 2022, 04:46:10 PM
If Le Pen becomes the next president of France it could mean problems for Finland joining Nato so that is one thing to worry about for the next 2 weeks.
There is
always something to worry about if you let your attention be caught by it. The whole of human history is basically just detail about which particular people fought over which particular resources at some particular place and time. However, you and amw have made me wonder whether I should get back into astronomy again. The Moon has been an absorbing place for me to look at and take photos in the past; maybe I should see if there are still any UK astronomy / astrophotography forums around.
Quote from: Florestan on April 12, 2022, 02:42:50 AMExactly.
It's the standard narrative of NATO expansion and has been since the 90s. NATO, due to multiple factors, including, but not limited to, (not quite so) latent imperial impulses and institutional inertia, must continue to expand its scope and reach. That is why NATO has nine "partners across the globe" or "global partners" (it uses both designations), including Mongolia, Iraq, and Columbia. Not surprisingly, all of the full members, potential members, and partners are either useful from a naval standpoint or are geographically close to, if not enemies, then potential regional challengers to the US. This of course relies on a belief that the US and its allies have legitimate claims to engage in and address security matters around the globe. NATO thinks so:
Quote from: North Atlantic Treaty OrganizationNATO's engagement with global partners is taking on increasing importance in a complex security environment, where many of the challenges the Alliance faces are global and no longer bound by geography.
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 12, 2022, 05:18:45 AM
Expansionism is only a meaningful term when it refers to forced actions against unwilling parties. Joining NATO is voluntary. Your narrative is bullshit. Hardly surprising from someone by whose logic chastity belts are a provocation to rapists.
It is completely understandable that smaller, weaker nations should seek protection from a hegemon that either aligns with their interests or does not pose a direct threat to those interests. That is rational. What is irrational is for a hegemon to extend its power and overextend its strategic commitments for countries of little or no strategic or economic value. Irrational choices are easy to understand when emotional appeals to "democracy", "human rights", "values", etc are offered as a rationale for the expansion of power. There have been critics of NATO since before it was officially established, there were critics of expansion in 1997 and every round since, and while clearly the official policy of the US is to push for greater NATO expansion, it does not change but rather reinforces the fact that the policy is expansionist. The US could have - and should have - rejected expansion in prior decades. It did not. It is very difficult to resist an expansion of power, perceived or actual.
Quote from: Todd on April 12, 2022, 05:41:13 AM
It is completely understandable that smaller, weaker nations should seek protection from a hegemon that either aligns with its interests or does not pose a direct threat to those interests. That is rational. What is irrational is for a hegemon to extend its power and overextend its strategic commitments for countries of little or no strategic or economic value.
Now you contradict yourself, because in your prior post you wrote that, on the contrary:
Quote from: Todd on April 12, 2022, 05:06:50 AM
Not surprisingly, all of the full members, potential members, and partners are either useful from a naval standpoint or are geographically close to, if not enemies, then potential regional challengers to the US.
Quote from: Florestan on April 12, 2022, 05:55:20 AM
Now you contradict yourself, because in your prior post you wrote that, on the contrary:
Not really. It was a poorly constructed sentence, which is my bad. The useful bit applies to the nine "partners". Note that the partners do not enjoy the same level of commitment as full NATO members. That is actually a much better approach; transactional alliances are far preferable to fixed treaty alliances. Of course, the US can blow off treaty obligations. Ask literally any Native American tribe that still exists.
Some existing NATO member states offer only costs and no benefits from a US standpoint. The Baltic states come to mind here. Unless someone can explain the benefits the US enjoys from the current arrangement.
Thus the scelerate Putin today: No matter how strange it might sound, our peoples [ie, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine] are united.
I thought about several idiomatic Romanian replies to this, put them through Google Translate and eventually gave up. I'm ultimately speechless.
Zelensky refused to meet the German president Steinmeier tomorrow in Kyiv, Steinmeier now says:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513931183884836871
That's some strong signalling ... Blocking Russian energy has been estimated to cost Germany about 3% of its GDP, where the Ukrainian GDP is expected to be halved this year, because of the invasion and the war - with prospects of maybe 90% of the Ukrainian citizens becoming much poorer, and likely for decades.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 12, 2022, 09:47:52 AM
Zelensky refused to meet the German president Steinmeier tomorrow in Kyiv, Steinmeier now says:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1513931183884836871
That's some strong signalling ...
Entirely justified, I say.
QuoteBlocking Russian energy has been estimated to cost Germany about 3% of its GDP, where the Ukrainian GDP is expected to be halved this year, because of the invasion and the war - with prospects of maybe 90% of the Ukrainian citizens becoming much poorer, and likely for decades.
Schroeder and Merkel should be tried for high treason. It is they who made Germany so heavily dependent on Russian gas and oil as it never was.
Quote from: Florestan on April 12, 2022, 09:59:24 AM
Schroeder and Merkel should be tried for high treason.
Please... No "lock her up" stuff, please/.
Quote from: Herman on April 12, 2022, 11:08:34 AM
Please... No "lock her up" stuff, please/.
Yeah, let's be liberal and magnanimous and willingly sell Russians the rope with which they'll hang us. ;D
Short-term: EXCLUSIVE U.S. to announce $750 million more in weapons for Ukraine, officials say (https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-us-announce-750-million-more-weapons-ukraine-officials-say-2022-04-12/)
Long-term: Pentagon asks top 8 U.S. weapons makers to meet on Ukraine -sources (https://www.reuters.com/world/pentagon-asks-top-8-us-arms-makers-meet-ukraine-sources-2022-04-12/)
Lots of money to be made.
Quote from: Todd on April 12, 2022, 06:07:21 AM
Unless someone can explain the benefits the US enjoys from the current arrangement.
Arvo Part and Peteris Vasks get to compose with less stress.
That's enough benefit right there.
What should Russia do with Ukraine?
https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_Russia_should_do_with_Ukraine
Those views have become very wide-spread in the Russian media picture.
Here' Vladimir Solovyov, the most popular prime-time TV host: (whose palatial villa(s) at the Como Lake in Italy recently became the object of protest actions):
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1513073178301673473
For a lot of people, propaganda like this is the only source for news, unless they actively try to seek out foreign news services etc.
His palatial villa(s) at the Como Lake in Italy recently became the object of protest actions:
https://video.corriere.it/video-embed/3ff6df18-b5ab-11ec-86e5-9f58259fdcbf?playerType=embed&tipo_video=embed_norcs
https://www.thedailybeast.com/one-of-russian-propagandist-vladimir-solovyevs-three-italian-villas-torched-in-arson-attack
Well thanks to whoever deleted my response to Todd's ruthlessly utilitarian cost-benefit analysis, but it did have a point. Which is that in real life most people simply do not work in this way, and we would find it grossly offensive if they did.
Relationships between people are not simply based on immediate and tangible short-term benefit, except for people that we describe as sociopaths.
And neither are relationships between countries. Because any country that behaves in that way will discover that in the longer term, it comes back to bite. The actual existence of a positive relationship is an important part of being able to get something you want later on, when you want it.
A lot of times I struggle with having a "mood" for classical music, but I think this Ukraine war has made me want to listen to mainly classical music. It feels a "safespace". It comforts. It is beautiful and often a reflection of humanism. Works like Granados' Goyescas sound amazing to me now... :P
Writing this because I realised today how classical music seems to be a big help in dealing with the mental burden caused by this war.
That said, I'd rather have peace in the World and not mood for classical music...
Quote from: 71 dB on April 13, 2022, 12:49:11 AM
A lot of times I struggle with having a "mood" for classical music, but I think this Ukraine war has made me want to listen to mainly classical music. It feels a "safespace". It comforts. It is beautiful and often a reflection of humanism. Works like Granados' Goyescas sound amazing to me now... :P
Writing this because I realised today how classical music seems to be a big help in dealing with the mental burden caused by this war.
That said, I'd rather have peace in the World and not mood for classical music...
I think that you're right about the healing power of classical music. This morning I'm listening to chamber music by Ukrainian composers from the album 'Ukraine - Journey to Freedom - A Century of Classical Music for Violin and Piano'. Your compatriot Sibelius is about the only composer whose music I can listen to regardless of how I am feeling. I think that it's to do with the combination of the healing power of music and the healing power of nature, which I find reflected in his music.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 13, 2022, 12:49:11 AM
A lot of times I struggle with having a "mood" for classical music, but I think this Ukraine war has made me want to listen to mainly classical music. It feels a "safespace". It comforts. It is beautiful and often a reflection of humanism. Works like Granados' Goyescas sound amazing to me now... :P
Writing this because I realised today how classical music seems to be a big help in dealing with the mental burden caused by this war.
That said, I'd rather have peace in the World and not mood for classical music...
Don't follow the news!! You'll be safe in Finland - let your politicians worry about Putin.
Quote from: Que on April 13, 2022, 01:30:28 AM
Don't follow the news!! You'll be safe in Finland - let your politicians worry about Putin.
Fully agree!
Quote from: Que on April 13, 2022, 01:30:28 AM
Don't follow the news!! You'll be safe in Finland - let your politicians worry about Putin.
I follow minimally. It is practically impossible to avoid the news completely in the modern World and knowing nothing about what is going on isn't healthy either. Monday was a bad day for me (I felt sick and tired physically which weakened me also mentally). Yesterday and today I am feeling better and this realisation of classical music "
being there for me" only helps.
Yes, I let the politicians and military experts to worry about Nato and Russia. 0:)
Quote from: Que on April 13, 2022, 01:30:28 AMDon't follow the news!! You'll be safe in Finland
Russian Forces Appear to Move Military Equipment to Finland Border in Video (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-forces-appear-move-military-equipment-finland-border-video-1697319)
Quote from: Todd on April 13, 2022, 04:43:42 AM
Russian Forces Appear to Move Military Equipment to Finland Border in Video (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-forces-appear-move-military-equipment-finland-border-video-1697319)
Quote from: LKB on April 12, 2022, 02:26:22 AM
Russian general, to Finnish leadership:
" I must warn you, joining NATO may result in Russian forces entering your country to secure our border. "
Finnish leadership to Russian general, after reviewing Russian performance in Ukraine:
" Promise? "
There's an insane amount of money to be made rebuilding Ukraine aaaaand developing the Ukrainian gas fields that Putin wanted oh so badly to keep out of the hands of NAZI druggies.
Quote from: Todd on April 13, 2022, 04:43:42 AM
Russian Forces Appear to Move Military Equipment to Finland Border in Video (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-forces-appear-move-military-equipment-finland-border-video-1697319)
When Putin amassed troops at the Ukranian border but denied he was planning to invade, I assumed he lied and was preparing an invasion
This time I think it is mere saber-rattling and postering, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is Russian manufactured "fake news".
The point is: Putin is lying, all the time.
Quote from: Que on April 13, 2022, 11:30:58 AMThis time I think it is mere saber-rattling and postering, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is Russian manufactured "fake news".
Of course it's saber-rattling. Russia does it all the time. As does the US.
But it serves a purpose. While in the heat of the moment, there will be bold pronouncements about how such action will steel the resolve of NATO members and ensure fast and easy admittance of Finland and Sweden into NATO, later in the year it may cause diplomatic reconsideration. Finland, in particular, absolutely should not be allowed into NATO. Perhaps France and/or Germany and/or Turkey might raise some objections, for various reasons.
Quote from: Que on April 13, 2022, 11:30:58 AMThe point is: Putin is lying, all the time.
I disagree. I figure he lies publicly only about 95%-97% of the time.
Quote from: Todd on April 12, 2022, 05:41:13 AM
It is completely understandable that smaller, weaker nations should seek protection from a hegemon that either aligns with their interests or does not pose a direct threat to those interests. That is rational. What is irrational is for a hegemon to extend its power and overextend its strategic commitments for countries of little or no strategic or economic value. Irrational choices are easy to understand when emotional appeals to "democracy", "human rights", "values", etc are offered as a rationale for the expansion of power. There have been critics of NATO since before it was officially established, there were critics of expansion in 1997 and every round since, and while clearly the official policy of the US is to push for greater NATO expansion, it does not change but rather reinforces the fact that the policy is expansionist. The US could have - and should have - rejected expansion in prior decades. It did not. It is very difficult to resist an expansion of power, perceived or actual.
What a reasonable answer (he wrote trying not to sound surprised). I would just say it's very difficult to assess strategic value in the long term. In my current speculative assessment, having more countries safely leaning toward some form of liberal democracy, especially on Russia's borders, is a good thing. Having the relative merits of living in such societies in plain sight of the Russian populace, as opposed to corrupt to the bone kleptocracies like Belorus, could be beneficial to the West. Putin's actions suggest that he believes so too. A thriving, less corrupt (ones hopes) Ukraine would be a powerful object lesson.
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 13, 2022, 01:36:35 PMHaving the relative merits of living in such societies in plain sight of the Russian populace, as opposed to corrupt to the bone kleptocracies like Belorus, could be beneficial to the West.
How would it be beneficial to the West?
More importantly, how would it be beneficial to the US?
Considering just basic trade, Eastern European members of NATO, Finland, Sweden, and even Ukraine and Belarus were they to become liberal democracies, amount to very little in trade with the US. Some individual countries amount to rounding errors. (See attached info, reported in billions of 2021 dollars, found on tradingeconomics.com.) Even with robust GDP growth and massively liberalized trade, it is not possible for the countries in Eastern Europe or Scandinavia to amount to a material portion of US trade. I hasten to add that I am far more interested in imports, since that indicates that the cited countries have goods of some value to Americans. So from an economic standpoint, the countries do not really matter to the US. And in the event some great company or companies emerge from the countries, there is a good chance that American money can buy said companies.
In terms of security, one can argue that some of these countries offer close proximity to Russia and therefore are valuable from a surveillance standpoint. There is truth to that, but Echelon and other signals intelligence relies comparatively little on these countries. That would leave human intelligence. There is ample history that human intelligence can be bought or people can be persuaded to provide such intelligence for various non-monetary reasons. So whatever strategic benefit the US receives is far more than offset by the security commitments that the US must make. The commitments come in the form of taxpayer money spent, military deployments to member countries or partners, and the potential for conflict. Which could mean the loss of American lives. The security arrangements are entirely lopsided to the benefit of the countries seeking protection from the US. Vague assurances that an expansion of liberal democracy to more countries will somehow make the world safer is wishful thinking.
In terms of other benefits that the US may receive, they would have to be lesser, intangible benefits. Like culture, art, etc. And it is exceedingly unlikely that the US would not receive such benefits even in the absence of security guarantees.
So, again, I ask, how are current security arrangements beneficial to the US, how would expanding them be beneficial, and to the point of the post being responded to, how would the geographic proximity of open societies to various illiberal states be beneficial to the US?
The Russian missile cruiser Moskva has suffered damage from a Uke missile strike. The Moskva is not a piece of shit in the slightest. The Russians blame an accident of some kind.
Quote from: Que on April 13, 2022, 11:30:58 AM
When Putin amassed troops at the Ukranian border but denied he was planning to invade, I assumed he lied and was preparing an invasion
This time I think it is mere saber-rattling and postering, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is Russian manufactured "fake news".
The point is: Putin is lying, all the time.
I doubt the Finns are overly worried, as the Russian army's ass has been shown to be thoroughly kickable.
Rattling your saber only makes an impression when others respect your swordsmanship.
Unfortunately there are no tank donation sites, so....
World Central Kitchen (https://wck.org/)
Quote from: Todd on April 13, 2022, 03:15:47 PM
How would it be beneficial to the West?
More importantly, how would it be beneficial to the US?
The fact that you personally cannot imagine a benefit is not the issue. Again, relationship-building is not thoroughly utilitarian, and to the extent that a relationship
is utilitarian it can just as easily be on the grounds of potential in the future.
You might not know exactly why you need your friends until the time that you actually need them.
The
Moskva crew has abandoned ship. Consider it destroyed.
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 06:25:53 PM
The fact that you personally cannot imagine a benefit is not the issue. Again, relationship-building is not thoroughly utilitarian, and to the extent that a relationship is utilitarian it can just as easily be on the grounds of potential in the future.
You might not know exactly why you need your friends until the time that you actually need them.
In a way, such relationships are utilitarian by not being narrowly so. It's a kind of "evolution of cooperation" thing, as Dawkins would say. Or, as I would put it, it's a higher, smarter form of selfishness.
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 06:25:53 PMThe fact that you personally cannot imagine a benefit is not the issue.
No one on this forum can imagine the benefits. They do not exist.
Quote from: drogulus on April 13, 2022, 06:39:25 PM
In a way, such relationships are utilitarian by not being narrowly so. It's a kind of "evolution of cooperation" thing, as Dawkins would say. Or, as I would put it, it's a higher, smarter form of selfishness.
Exactly.
Heck, in my own office there's a team of editors that I need to work with but where I have more status and power than they do. They're basically expected to work on what I and the other drafters want. But I'm consciously nice to that team, arguably nicer than some of my colleagues are. And then, when I have something super urgent come up that requires the editors, they are happy to help me out.
I'm well aware in my own mind that
one of the reasons that I'm nice to that team is because it might help me in a rare situation when the pressure's on. And I started being nice to them
from the beginning.
Sure, they're supposed to help me anyway, but when it comes to real pressure and competing priorities, and meeting my deadline versus meeting someone else's deadline, who's going to get better service: the drafter they're just obliged to work with, or the drafter they actually like?
Quote from: Todd on April 13, 2022, 06:49:58 PM
No one on this forum can imagine the benefits. They do not exist.
Todd, the whole point of imagination is to deal with things that don't currently exist. If they existed, imagination wouldn't be necessary. Observation would be sufficient.
And that's your whole problem. You cannot observe current benefits and so you stop.
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 06:51:34 PM
Todd, the whole point of imagination is to deal with things that don't currently exist. If they existed, imagination wouldn't be necessary. Observation would be sufficient.
I notice no one here has imagined any benefits that the US enjoys from continually expanding NATO and its military commitments.
Quoting for emphasis:
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 06:50:42 PM
Exactly.
Heck, in my own office there's a team of editors that I need to work with but where I have more status and power than they do. They're basically expected to work on what I and the other drafters want. But I'm consciously nice to that team, arguably nicer than some of my colleagues are. And then, when I have something super urgent come up that requires the editors, they are happy to help me out.
I'm well aware in my own mind that one of the reasons that I'm nice to that team is because it might help me in a rare situation when the pressure's on. And I started being nice to them from the beginning.
Sure, they're supposed to help me anyway, but when it comes to real pressure and competing priorities, and meeting my deadline versus meeting someone else's deadline, who's going to get better service: the drafter they're just obliged to work with, or the drafter they actually like?
Quote from: Todd on April 13, 2022, 06:49:58 PM
No one on this forum can imagine the benefits. They do not exist.
It's a very basic benefit: the more friends we have, the more friends we have and the fewer friends regimes like Putin and Xi and the mullahs of Iran have. Which limits their ability to do things that are negative for us.
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 06:51:34 PMAnd that's your whole problem. You cannot observe current benefits and so you stop.
I explicitly stated that even vastly expanded GDP growth in the assortment of countries listed, and massively liberalized trade, would not result in the cited countries becoming economically relevant to the US. Unless those countries expand their geography - which is exactly the issue being dealt with now - they will not become strategically important. There is no path for those countries to become important. Economic, geographic, and demographic reality precludes it.
As a counterexample, the benefits that exist today, and potential future benefits of ongoing alliance with Canada, are enormous.
Quote from: JBS on April 13, 2022, 06:57:42 PMIt's a very basic benefit: the more friends we have, the more friends we have and the fewer friends regimes like Putin and Xi and the mullahs of Iran have. Which limits their ability to do things that are negative for us.
This is dubious. Focusing on key relationships with significant economic and strategic powers is far more beneficial to the US. An example here would be India. The US has worked to improve relations with India, and should continue to do so, because it offers a material potential counterweight to China. Bhutan does not, however happy the country may be. Bhutan can be a friend, or not, it does not matter. Latvia is a Baltic Bhutan.
Quote from: Todd on April 13, 2022, 06:56:45 PM
I notice no one here has imagined any benefits that the US enjoys from continually expanding NATO and its military commitments.
I notice your goalposts move a lot. I also notice you repeatedly ignore the basic benefit of having friends.
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 07:47:40 PM
I also notice you repeatedly ignore the basic benefit of having friends.
Possibly America is so great it doesn't need any friends. A bit like Russia.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 13, 2022, 09:19:35 PM
Possibly America is so great it doesn't need any friends. A bit like Russia.
"Needing" friends sounds like a poor position to be in. They should gravitate naturally.
And the easiest way to do that is to be interesting. Continue to make great art- Art is diplomacy. As long as the US still has that, we will have some part of people's hearts all over the world- to name a very much current example, look at South Korea and their pop culture boom.
At least that's one way. There are other ways, but people's hearts won't be into becoming allies in quite the same way.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 13, 2022, 09:19:35 PM
Possibly America is so great it doesn't need any friends. A bit like Russia.
Remember that during the next vote in the United Nations that the USA is pushing. The Baltic states get 3 times as many votes on General Assembly resolutions as the USA does.
Same goes for any other international organisation that the USA bothers being part of. Of which there are still quite a few.
Quote from: greg on April 13, 2022, 09:34:11 PM
And the easiest way to do that is to be interesting. Continue to make great art- Art is diplomacy. As long as the US still has that, we will have some part of people's hearts all over the world- to name a very much current example, look at South Korea and their pop culture boom.
This is true. Quite a few countries make a conscious effort around this. Thailand is an example, having made a deliberate push to be seen in the West as a friendly Asian country - a little exotic, but not
too exotic or threatening. Thai cuisine did not become popular simply by happenstance.
Russia says warship 'seriously damaged' after ammunition explosion (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-russia-says-warship-seriously-damaged-after-ammunition-explosion-us-to-send-800m-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-6257a0128f08646135e679b9#block-6257a0128f08646135e679b9)
Translation: Ukraine managed to destroy the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
For the Russian military the humiliations keep coming.... ::)
Quote from: Que on April 13, 2022, 11:32:54 PM
Russia says warship 'seriously damaged' after ammunition explosion (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-russia-says-warship-seriously-damaged-after-ammunition-explosion-us-to-send-800m-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-6257a0128f08646135e679b9#block-6257a0128f08646135e679b9)
Translation: Ukraine managed to destroy the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
Yay! Go, Ukraine!
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 07:47:40 PMI also notice you repeatedly ignore the basic benefit of having friends.
Nation states are not friends. Nation states may be allies. Or enemies. Or neither. As improper and inaccurate as it is to compare family finance to national finance, so it is improper and inaccurate to compare relationships between nation states and people.
As to your assertion that I am moving goalposts, that is inaccurate.
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 09:44:28 PM
Remember that during the next vote in the United Nations that the USA is pushing. The Baltic states get 3 times as many votes on General Assembly resolutions as the USA does.
Same goes for any other international organisation that the USA bothers being part of. Of which there are still quite a few.
How would these organizational changes be made?
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 13, 2022, 09:19:35 PM
Possibly America is so great it doesn't need any friends. A bit like Russia.
The US of course benefits from many alliances, though the concept has been distorted due to US hegemony. The current extent of alliances has overextended the US, which puts the US at risk, and material allies at risk. Not all allies are equal. The relative priority is pretty obvious from existing policy, organizational structures, and recent actions. English speaking countries are the most valued allies, then Western European countries, then long-established Asia-Pacific allies, then allies added in the wake of the Vietnam debacle and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The US is undertaking vigorous diplomatic efforts to improve relationships with potential key future allies to address potential conflicts or challenges, something which everyone imagines will be important.
Alliances and the relative value of those alliances must change as conditions in the world change. We are witnessing a diminution of US hegemony in the Middle East or Greater Middle East, depending on one's preferred label. The strategic value of that region has diminished. It would be foolish of the US to continue to devote as many resources to the region given the developments of the past decade. It does seem that Europeans seem to think that evolving global conditions and significant shifts in relative significance of alliances do not apply to European nation states. They do. To quote Henry Kissinger, America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests. This is of course a variation on a similar proclamation from Lord Palmerston.
Quote from: Que on April 13, 2022, 11:32:54 PM
Russia says warship 'seriously damaged' after ammunition explosion (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-russia-says-warship-seriously-damaged-after-ammunition-explosion-us-to-send-800m-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-6257a0128f08646135e679b9#block-6257a0128f08646135e679b9)
Translation: Ukraine managed to destroy the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
For the Russian military the humiliations keep coming.... ::)
Russia says not to worry, it wasn't the nasty Ukrainians but simply that their flagship was in such poor condition or ineptly crewed that an accidental fire trashed it to the point of having to abandon ship. ::)
Quote from: Todd on April 14, 2022, 04:43:17 AM
It does seem that Europeans seem to think that evolving global conditions and significant shifts in relative significance of alliances do not apply to European nation states. They do.
True, as in last year's
Aukus pact which seems to have taken France and the EU by surprise.
Quote from: Todd on April 14, 2022, 04:43:17 AM
How would these organizational changes be made?
I made no mention of organisational changes. In an international forum, a large country like the USA gets one vote. A small country like Estonia also gets one vote. Another small country like Latvia also gets one vote. Another small country like Lithuania also gets one vote. This is how things already work.
If the USA goes around communicating to small countries that they don't matter, the really obvious place that the USA will get bitten is in international forums when the USA is looking for support on something. Because that is one place where a small country is not 'small'.
Quite frankly I shouldn't have to explain this to an American given how your Senate works.
Quote from: Madiel on April 14, 2022, 06:17:25 AMIf the USA goes around communicating to small countries that they don't matter, the really obvious place that the USA will get bitten is in international forums when the USA is looking for support on something. Because that is one place where a small country is not 'small'.
A critical difference here is that the US Senate matters whereas the UN does not. The US can disregard UN decisions. The US can withhold funding to the UN, which it does from time to time. Small countries do not matter. The UN is a toothless talking shop, at least for great powers. By design.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 14, 2022, 05:49:35 AM
Russia says not to worry, it wasn't the nasty Ukrainians but simply that their flagship was in such poor condition or ineptly crewed that an accidental fire trashed it to the point of having to abandon ship. ::)
One way or the other, it doesn't even matter. The important thing is the bastards were left without their toy. I hope such incidents become the norm for Russians.
More and more cars with Ukrainian licence plates in the streets of Bucharest. I notice them daily. Before the Russian invasion there were virtually none.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 14, 2022, 05:49:35 AM
Russia says not to worry, it wasn't the nasty Ukrainians but simply that their flagship was in such poor condition or ineptly crewed that an accidental fire trashed it to the point of having to abandon ship. ::)
Quote from: Florestan on April 14, 2022, 07:06:01 AM
One way or the other, it doesn't even matter. The important thing is the bastards were left without their toy. I hope such incidents become the norm for Russians.
Last I saw (on CNN this morning) is that the ship was damaged to a certain extent but is headed back across the Black Sea for repairs--how badly damaged??? Is it actually being towed though (according to one news agency) or is it chugging along under its own power? Sounds like most of the crew is gone though.
Also, I heard today that the US is upping the weapons that it's sending to Ukraine including some helicopters, armed HMUVs and more. Here's some info for you: https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-war/index.html It's titled "Why the Biden administration is giving new, heavier weapons to Ukraine"
PD
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 07:47:40 PM
I notice your goalposts move a lot. I also notice you repeatedly ignore the basic benefit of having friends.
Well, yes.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on April 14, 2022, 08:57:31 AM
Last I saw (on CNN this morning) is that the ship was damaged to a certain extent but is headed back across the Black Sea for repairs--how badly damaged??? Is it actually being towed though (according to one news agency) or is it chugging along under its own power? Sounds like most of the crew is gone though.
Also, I heard today that the US is upping the weapons that it's sending to Ukraine including some helicopters, armed HMUVs and more. Here's some info for you: https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-war/index.html It's titled "Why the Biden administration is giving new, heavier weapons to Ukraine"
PD
There has been no pictures etc. released regarding the
Moskva ship, so we don't know its condition yet. Practically all naval experts consider it unlikely that it was just an accident on board. Maybe even public satellite pictures will tell a bit, unless the US does.
Regarding the helicopter deliveries to Ukraine, rumors have become muddy just lately, it might not happen anyway.
Another rumor of
Shoigu suffering yet another massive heart attack and now in an ICU, but it's based on a single source, albeit with a former oligarch background.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10718247/Putins-defence-minister-Sergei-Shoigu-massive-heart-attack-not-natural-causes.html
If it's not just cheap sensationalism (it might very well be), and things are indeed serious with him, it will no doubt take time before anything is known, since the system is definitely in a defending mode. But due to the strain now on Putin's Russia, a lot of experts think that many purges will take place there in the oncoming months.
Regarding the recently deceased Zhirinovsky, he was already pronounced dead two week before his lit-de-parade, then said to be in a coma, then the announcement came again. People are now speculating, that maybe it had to do with Putin turning up at the lit-de-parade, but being afraid of Covid, and demanding a quarantine period for the environment ...
But: here's an example of a less restricted societal debate still taking place at times in Russia, in the popular
Komsomolskaya Pravda (use google translate): https://www.kp.ru/daily/27379.3/4571352/
Quote from: Madiel on April 13, 2022, 07:47:40 PM
I also notice you (=Todd) repeatedly ignore the basic benefit of having friends.
I suppose it is difficult to see the benefits of having friends if you don't have any... :P
Unless they've been hacked, several official Russian news agencies now reporting that Moskva has sunk, 'because it was towed in stormy weather'.
It's unclear, what sort of missiles there were aboard, and the circumstances of the crew are also unclear, since reports vary a lot.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 14, 2022, 12:12:51 PM
Unless they've been hacked, several official Russian news agencies now reporting that Moskva has sunk, 'because it was towed in stormy weather'.
It's unclear, what sort of missiles there were aboard, and the circumstances of the crew are also unclear, since reports vary a lot.
Ukraine claims it had hit the
Moskva with anti-ship
Neptune missiles (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune). A job well done...
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 14, 2022, 12:12:51 PM
It's unclear, what sort of missiles there were aboard, and the circumstances of the crew are also unclear, since reports vary a lot.
The main armament consists of Sandbox anti-ship missiles in 16 deck tubes, and 64 Grumbles, the naval version of the S-300 surface to air missile (SAM)) in vertical launch tubes.
(https://news.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/FQR__y1XoAEs1DB.jpeg)
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 14, 2022, 12:12:51 PM
Unless they've been hacked, several official Russian news agencies now reporting that Moskva has sunk, 'because it was towed in stormy weather'.
Yeah, the Russians would build a warship which couldn't stand rough weather. Sure, I believe that!
Quote from: Que on April 14, 2022, 12:45:12 PM
Ukraine claims it had hit the Moskva with anti-ship Neptune missiles (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune). A job well done...
That raises some questions, see https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61103927
The Slava-class cruiser was the third largest vessel in Russia's active fleet and one of its most heavily defended assets, naval expert Jonathan Bentham from the International Institute for Strategic Studies told the BBC.
The cruiser was equipped with a triple-tiered air defence system that if operating properly should have given it three opportunities to defend itself from a Neptune missile attack.
In addition to medium- and short-range defences, it could engage six short-range close-in weapon systems (CIWS) as a last resort.
Mr Bentham said Moskva should have had 360-degree anti-air defence coverage.
"The CIWS system can fire 5,000 rounds in a minute, essentially creating a wall of flak around the cruiser, its last line of defence," he said.
If the strike is proven to have come from a missile it "raises questions over the capabilities of the modernisation of the Russian surface fleet: whether it had enough ammunition, whether it had engineering issues".
"Essentially, you'd have thought that with that three-tiered anti-air defence system it would be very hard to hit," the military expert added.
Perhaps their navy is as f**ked-up as their army... ::)
This Ukrainian website claims two missiles were fired simultaneously after, according to unconfirmed information from Russian military circles, the use of a drone as a decoy:
Moscow has sunk. How the Armed Forces hit the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (https://yoowely.com/en/index.php/posts/mosca-e-affondata-come-le-forze-armate-hanno-colpito-lammiraglia-della-flotta-russa-del-mar-nero)
A job well done.
Russia last night used some of its remaining cruise missiles to hit a factory in Kyiv that produces anti-ship missiles in apparent retaliation for the accidental fire that sank their flagship. ::)
Quote from: LKB on April 14, 2022, 09:49:56 PM
Perhaps their navy is as f**ked-up as their army... ::)
Their whole country is f**cked-up. Always has been, always will be. ;D
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 14, 2022, 06:36:50 PM
Yeah, the Russians would build a warship which couldn't stand rough weather. Sure, I believe that!
Due to the changes in political climate, Russian army is experiencing unexpected "extreme weather conditions" caused by the
Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Quote from: T. D. on April 14, 2022, 07:13:50 PM
That raises some questions, see https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61103927
The Slava-class cruiser was the third largest vessel in Russia's active fleet and one of its most heavily defended assets, naval expert Jonathan Bentham from the International Institute for Strategic Studies told the BBC.
The cruiser was equipped with a triple-tiered air defence system that if operating properly should have given it three opportunities to defend itself from a Neptune missile attack.
In addition to medium- and short-range defences, it could engage six short-range close-in weapon systems (CIWS) as a last resort.
Mr Bentham said Moskva should have had 360-degree anti-air defence coverage.
"The CIWS system can fire 5,000 rounds in a minute, essentially creating a wall of flak around the cruiser, its last line of defence," he said.
If the strike is proven to have come from a missile it "raises questions over the capabilities of the modernisation of the Russian surface fleet: whether it had enough ammunition, whether it had engineering issues".
"Essentially, you'd have thought that with that three-tiered anti-air defence system it would be very hard to hit," the military expert added.
This is very good information about the
Moskva, which was designed to sink a US aircraft carrier with it's Sandbox supersonic cruise missiles, and for fleet defense against air and missile attack. I suspect the Ukes found a way to jam the radars, possibly with the assistance of a country that is good at stuff like that, and has people on the ground that are simultaneously not there.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 15, 2022, 02:01:45 AM
Russia last night used some of its remaining cruise missiles to hit a factory in Kyiv that produces anti-ship missiles in apparent retaliation for the accidental fire that sank their flagship. ::)
Darn that stormy weather, anyway!
Cap is shocked by what happened to the Moskva.
https://www.youtube.com/v/Bxwh6MGLJNc&t
It is possible that the proximate cause of Moskva's sinking really was the weather, even if the ultimate cause was Ukrainian fire.
Any vessel with significant battle damage will require ongoing damage control until it can reach a safe haven. The fact that the crew was mostly evacuated suggests that the Russian naval command decided the vessel was doomed, and decided to let the sea take her. That way, they save face just a bit.
Pentagon now confirming the two missiles causing it to sink story.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/15/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/
From what I've seen, there was not much wind (14 km/h) at the time of the alleged going down. Haven't checked myself though. Also, apparently there was a storm at the time of the attack (like in Drogulus' video, that however doesn't deal with the drone decoy theories).
Stories about possible nuclear missiles on board have receded, it seems.
Still I see no reason for open glee at these humiliations of Russia prowess.
The more they fail the harder they will bomb.
Quote from: Herman on April 15, 2022, 12:21:15 PM
Still I see no reason for open glee at these humiliations of Russia prowess.
The more they fail the harder they will bomb.
I see it, rather, as exultation in Ukrainian success. Not sure what your objection there would be.
if we take that to [one] logical conclusion, Putin deploying nukes is just a matter of time, if Ukraine continues to resist successfully.
So, what would you prefer? What do you suggest instead?
The captain of the Moskva, who was the commander of the Russian Black Sea fleet, was killed during the explosion and fire on the ship.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 15, 2022, 05:29:21 PM
I see it, rather, as exultation in Ukrainian success. Not sure what your objection there would be.
if we take that to [one] logical conclusion, Putin deploying nukes is just a matter of time, if Ukraine continues to resist successfully.
So, what would you prefer? What do you suggest instead?
My suggestion is keep winning without globally humiliating Putin / Russia.
Quote from: Herman on April 15, 2022, 11:01:42 PM
My suggestion is keep winning without globally humiliating Putin / Russia.
You seem to assume Ukraine can win without Putin feeling deeply humiliated. I personally doubt if there is a "safe" level of humiliation. And yes, that raises the important question what Putin is going to do when he has to acknowledge that defeat is inevitable. A dangerous moment.
Some commentators doubt the military necessity of sinking the Moskva, others point out that the flagship of the Black Sea fleet was its command centre
and that without it a (successful) amphibious assault on Odessa is now very unlikely.
Also, the sinking of the ship and the loss of a large part of its crew was impossible to hide from the Russian public. Which IMO is a significant win in the information war. Note that the new recruits - canon fodder - for the renewed attack on Ukraine are purposely drawn from areas as far away from the European part of Russia as possible. For obvious reasons...
I'm not a military strategist, but it seems to me that if Ukraine wants to win in the south - the more damage to the Russian fleet, the better.
Quote from: Que on April 15, 2022, 11:41:49 PM
You seem to assume Ukraine can win without Putin feeling deeply humiliated. I personally doubt if there is a "safe" level of humiliation.
Agreed. We are arguably already at the point where the win is not as easy as Russia anticipated. An outright failure would be pretty disastrous.
Finland and Sweden take major step towards joining Nato (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/finland-and-sweden-could-apply-for-nato-membership-in-weeks)
Russia Warns of 'Consequences' if Finland, Sweden Join NATO (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/15/russia-warns-of-consequences-if-finland-sweden-join-nato-a77370)
So, should Sweden and Finland be kept out of NATO as not to aggrivate Putin any further?
A better question would be: should Putin stop scaring countries into joining NATO by mounting invasions?
Russia has even hinted at an increased presence of tactical nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea area as a response.
Even though some will argue against it, I think Finland and Sweden are on a fast track to NATO membership. A very fast track actually, with conformation on the NATO summit in June.
At this point in time it seems that all hope to reach some kind of settlement with Putin is out of the window.
A long term total rupture in relations between the West and Russia seems inevitable, including a total trade ban. Even Germany seems to be aware of that now.
I wonder if others in Russia would trade Putin for some type of negotiated "peace with honor." Maybe Finland doesn't join NATO and maybe the Russians agree to withdraw from most of Ukraine with a further settlement to be discussed. They could avoid having the gas pump turned off too. Someone's got to realize there are some losses to cut. Once the world finds other ways to power itself, it won't reverse.
Now might be a good time to join NATO though while Russian forces are stretched in Ukraine.
Quote from: Que on April 16, 2022, 02:07:04 AM
At this point in time it seems that all hope to reach some kind of settlement with Putin is out of the window.
A long term total rupture in relations between the West and Russia seems inevitable, including a total trade ban. Even Germany seems to be aware of that now.
Indeed. Time and again, time and again, Russia proves itself a rogue state, a tyrannic state, an oppressive state and a repressive state. Except a brief and chaotic interlude in 1917-18, they have always been like that and I'm afraid there is no chance in any foreseeable future they will ever be otherwise.
Yeah, I don't think the rulers ever got the idea that the country might work better for everyone with a proper democracy.
Quote from: Que on April 16, 2022, 12:22:08 AMSo, should Sweden and Finland be kept out of NATO as not to aggrivate Putin any further?
Sweden and Finland should be kept out of NATO to reduce the likelihood of unnecessarily antagonizing Russia, whether led by Putin or someone else. (Putin will die one day, and Russia will remain, the Eurasian behemoth poised to cause harm, for centuries to come.) Better yet, NATO should be scaled back to 1991 membership. Best case, NATO should be dissolved. The supreme strategic objective of the US should be the avoidance of great power war, and a military alliance against Russia - and all alliances are
against something - does not achieve that aim and continues to place far too great an emphasis on Europe when European significance, like American significance, is declining in the world. European nations should provide for their own security.
Of course, while it is very possible that Sweden and Finland can be kept out of NATO by one of several different less Russophobic members, or their full integration slow walked after a hasty and very poorly conceived expansion, in any event once the current hostilities are over and whatever show trials that may occur are complete, bold talk will fade into memory and increased European defense budgets will dwindle, and European states will revert to relying primarily on American security guarantees. Ukraine may even be fully under the control of Kyiv. Or not.
Russia is still an empire in certain respects. At least, to someone like Putin it is.
I just found an interesting article from a few years ago. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/28/putin-may-want-to-be-an-emperor-but-russia-isnt-an-imperial-power/
Make that 2 interesting articles from a few years ago. https://theconversation.com/russias-imperial-mindset-dates-back-centuries-and-it-is-here-to-stay-95832
Quote from: Todd on April 16, 2022, 05:54:32 AM
European nations should provide for their own security.
That should be a good thing and one would hope the extra resources from Sweden and Finland joining NATO would reduce the burden on America.
Quote from: Madiel on April 16, 2022, 05:55:54 AM
I just found an interesting article from a few years ago. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/28/putin-may-want-to-be-an-emperor-but-russia-isnt-an-imperial-power/
Can't read in its entirety, paywall.
QuoteMake that 2 interesting articles from a few years ago. https://theconversation.com/russias-imperial-mindset-dates-back-centuries-and-it-is-here-to-stay-95832
On the other hand, thanks for this one. I'm in full, unqualified agreement.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 16, 2022, 06:06:42 AM
That should be a good thing and one would hope the extra resources from Sweden and Finland joining NATO would reduce the burden on America.
Bottom line, security from Russia means nuclear capabilities. In Europe only UK and France have them --- and if Marine Le Pen wins the presidential elections (which God forbid!) you can strike the latter off the list.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 16, 2022, 06:06:42 AM
That should be a good thing and one would hope the extra resources from Sweden and Finland joining NATO would reduce the burden on America.
Except it will not. NATO only exists and has any effectiveness, such as it is, because of American involvement. Remove the US, and NATO becomes irrelevant. There would be no comprehensive nuclear deterrent. There would be no ability to project power globally, either via naval or air power. (The destruction of Libya demonstrated that, as allies ended up having to rely on American power to sustain the bombing campaign that plunged the former country and immediate region into chaos that still exists today.) Communications and signals intelligence relies very heavily on American power, though some countries have nicely developed systems outside American control - the Germans, for instance, if various foreign policy and security authors are to be believed. To be sure, certain US interests benefit mightily from now long-standing security arrangements - eg, defense firms, consultancies, financial institutions, and of course US government agencies directly involved with foreign and military policy - and those institutions have insufficient interest in realigning security arrangements to reflect current long-term security challenges that face the US. The world will not return to February 2022 in security terms once the current war is over, but it will return to something nearly identical. Pity.
Todd, have you read Theodor Mommsen's Roman History? If not, I urge you to read it. I know no other history book which explains that clearly and in such a stylsih prose (the work won him the Nobel Prize for Literature) the inexorable logic which lies behind the birth, growth and expansion of an empire. Far from being something irrational and unnatural, NATO and its expansion is the only too logical consequence of the original USA taking the very first expansionist step.
Actually, I recommend this three-volume treatise to anyone interested in history --- political, geopolitical, social, religious and cultural. A fascinating reading.
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 06:53:00 AMTodd, have you read Theodor Mommsen's Roman History?
I have not, and I doubt I will sit down to read over a thousand pages of translated German. I certainly appreciate older historical analyses since human nature has not changed in at least, what, ten to twenty thousand years or more*, and as such there are always lessons to learn from the past, but I tend to rely on more recent scholarship that includes the one new thing under the sun in foreign policy since Westphalia, namely Trinity.
* jk - it has not changed and will never change.
Quote from: Todd on April 16, 2022, 06:18:22 AM
Remove the US, and NATO becomes irrelevant.
I don't really care about your opinions, but I can comment on them to be strangely black and white (binary). Without the US, NATO becomes much weaker, but not irrelevant. The US is not
everything as americans are often let to believe.
Quote from: Todd on April 16, 2022, 07:03:41 AM
I have not, and I doubt I will sit down to read over a thousand pages of translated German. I certainly appreciate older historical analyses since human nature has not changed in at least, what, ten to twenty thousand years or more*, and as such there are always lessons to learn from the past, but I tend to rely on more recent scholarship that includes the one new thing under the sun in foreign policy since Westphalia, namely Trinity.
* jk - it has not changed and will never change.
Well, if human nature never changes, then that Trinity (whatever it might mean, which I suppose it's not God, Jesus and the Holy Ghost) must surely have had an equivalent in kind, if not degree, before Westphalia.
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 07:15:21 AM
Well, if human nature never changes, then that Trinity (whatever it might mean, which I suppose it's not God, Jesus and the Holy Ghost) must surely have had an equivalent in kind, if not degree, before Westphalia.
Btw, I'll give you ten points if you nominate off the top of your head the two cities where the Peace of Westphalia treaties were actually signed. ;)
Quote from: 71 dB on April 16, 2022, 07:03:54 AM
I don't really care about your opinions, but I can comment on them to be strangely black and white (binary). Without the US, NATO become much weaker, but not irrelevant. The US is not everything as americans are often let to believe.
You obviously care enough about my opinion to respond. I am the first to say that the USA is not everything - I do not know what that actually means - but it is currently the most powerful nation state on earth. The US, along with only Russia, has the power to literally kill everyone on the planet, or at least something approaching that horrifying possible outcome. The US alone has the power to militarily strike any target on earth using conventional weapons. The US alone has the ability to cutoff any entity - corporate or national - from the US financial system, which is universally accepted as being the current foundation of the international economic system, thereby causing immediate financial distress, potentially of the existential sort, depending on the entity under consideration.
As to NATO's usefulness and effectiveness in the absence of the US, it would not matter. The remaining allies have a small nuclear deterrent force, and were the US to abandon NATO - as it should - then the UK would most likely partner with the US more closely since the UK's nuclear deterrence is so closely tied to US technology. That might leave France as the sole nuclear power in NATO. Command and control structures within NATO are heavily reliant upon the US, by design, and if the US leaves, SACEUR would have to transfer to a European commander and NATO would have to operate without US support. Depending on how quickly the US could withdraw - ideally, it would be immediate, but as with all large bureaucratic organizations, it would take time - the organization would necessarily undergo major changes, almost certainly slowing responsiveness, and when combined with vastly inferior military capabilities without the presence of the US military, it would have great difficulty deploying effective forces. Again, one need look only at the operation in Libya to see the significant logistical shortcomings of the allies without American power. And since NATO is a military alliance, military power is literally the most important thing.
Also, to be very clear, Europeans should take on the full responsibility of providing military security for Europe. This would further serve to illustrate that the US is not everything. The sooner this happens, the better. I am not hopeful that it happens, because European leaders are entirely content with their current dependence on the US, and they are perfectly happy to have the US mistreat them.
The Allies Are Alright: Why America Can Get Away With Bullying Its Friends (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2022-02-22/allies-are-alright)
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 07:15:21 AMthen that Trinity (whatever it might mean
It was the culmination of the Manhattan Project.
Quote from: Todd on April 16, 2022, 07:31:25 AM
The Allies Are Alright: Why America Can Get Away With Bullying Its Friends (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2022-02-22/allies-are-alright)
A suggestion to
Todd and indeed anyone else linking to paywalled sources: would you be so kind to copy-paste the whole thing here? Not everyone has a subscription or money to spend on subscribing. Thank you.
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 07:40:50 AMwould you be so kind to copy-paste the whole thing here?
For limited article sites, one can either use Chrome incognito browsing or clear the browser history to access multiple articles. I absolutely will not copy and paste entire articles.
I'm too lazy to directly profit from the protection of the world economy by the US led alliance system, so I settle for indirect profits outside the defense industries. I am aware that something as valuable as the economic output of the world requires a substantial investment in military prowess by responsible parties with the means and qualifications to do so. That's the US, a fact that can't be disestablished by arguing against it. NATO continues to prove its value to its members. The primary beneficiary now as always is the US, and the success of the alliance is that it's run for the common benefit. If this was untrue no argument could hold it together. Because it is true no argument succeeds in pulling it apart.
Quote from: Todd on April 16, 2022, 07:46:17 AM
For limited article sites, one can either use Chrome incognito browsing or clear the browser history to access multiple articles.
I use Mozilla Firefox and I'm perfectly happy with it. I'm not sure, though, how clearing my browsing history is going to give me access to a site I've never visited before in the first place, or to a site which is paywalled.
Actually, never mind. Not being able to read Foreign Affairs online is not going to give me headaches or cause my losing sleep. Actually, nothing we post, or link to, here, has any relevance to how the world at large in general, and politics in particular, goes. It's nice, though, to share one's thoughts with people who care to read them, even if only to refute them.
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 07:55:58 AM
I use Mozilla Firefox and I'm perfectly happy with it. I'm not sure, though, how clearing my browsing history is going to give me access to a site I've never visited before in the first place, or to a site which is paywalled.
Actually, never mind. Not being able to read Foreign Affairs online is not going to give me headaches or cause my losing sleep. Actually, nothing we post, or link to, here, has any relevance to how the world at large in general, and politics in particular, goes. It's nice, though, to share one's thoughts with people who care to read them, even if only to refute them.
No, what he is suggesting is that most of those sites let you visit free the first few times, so if you clear your cache or use incognito you can maintain that virginity long enough to read the occasional article. If it doesn't work on that site, it will work on others. IIRC, Firefox has an incognito mode that they call something else. 🤔
🤠😎
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 16, 2022, 08:15:13 AM
No, what he is suggesting is that most of those sites let you visit free the first few times, so if you clear your cache or use incognito you can maintain that virginity long enough to read the occasional article. If it doesn't work on that site, it will work on others. IIRC, Firefox has an incognito mode that they call something else. 🤔
🤠😎
Ah, I see, thanks. Nevertheless, as far as I can remember
Foreign Affairs never let me read anything for free --- as different from
The Atlantic or
Grammophone, for instance. :)
But as I said, it's no big deal, really.
Quote from: Que on April 15, 2022, 11:41:49 PM
You seem to assume Ukraine can win without Putin feeling deeply humiliated. I personally doubt if there is a "safe" level of humiliation. And yes, that raises the important question what Putin is going to do when he has to acknowledge that defeat is inevitable. A dangerous moment.
Some commentators doubt the military necessity of sinking the Moskva, others point out that the flagship of the Black Sea fleet was its command centre and that without it a (successful) amphibious assault on Odessa is now very unlikely.
Also, the sinking of the ship and the loss of a large part of its crew was impossible to hide from the Russian public. Which IMO is a significant win in the information war. Note that the new recruits - canon fodder - for the renewed attack on Ukraine are purposely drawn from areas as far away from the European part of Russia as possible. For obvious reasons...
I'm not a military strategist, but it seems to me that if Ukraine wants to win in the south - the more damage to the Russian fleet, the better.
Also: I cannot think much of "Stop resisting, Ukraine, it only makes Putin very angry" as a strategy.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 16, 2022, 08:40:42 AM
Also: I cannot think much of "Stop resisting, Ukraine, it only makes Putin very angry" as a strategy.
Apparently there are people out there who think that the Ukrainian army should have surrendered in day one without firing a single shot, Zelensky and his government should have fled to Warsaw in day one and the Ukrainian people should have contented themselves with living under a Russian puppet regime or even acquiesced to being annexed by Russia altogether --- all in the name of peace.
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 08:44:50 AM
Apparently there are people out there who think that Ukraine should have surrendered in day one without firing a single shot, Zelensky and his government should have fled to Warsaw in day one and the Ukrainian people should have contented themselves with living under a Russian puppet regime or even acquiesced to being annexed by Russia altogether --- all in the name of peace.
I seem to recall that Neville Chamberlain felt similarly erewhile.
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 08:44:50 AM
Apparently there are people out there who think that the Ukrainian army should have surrendered in day one without firing a single shot, Zelensky and his government should have fled to Warsaw in day one and the Ukrainian people should have contented themselves with living under a Russian puppet regime or even acquiesced to being annexed by Russia altogether --- all in the name of peace.
Ukrainians have fought valiantly, and as long as they believe that is the best course of action for their country and themselves, they should do so. Like in Yemen and Syria, fighting will continue for a protracted period of time, and thousands more will die and suffer. At the end of the war, the best-case scenario is that Ukrainian borders will revert to pre-2014 boundaries, Russia will be forced to pay reparations via confiscatory actions by Western powers, and maybe some Russian leaders and soldiers stand "trial" for war crimes. NATO membership is unlikely, though perhaps EU membership is in the offing, though that is a second-rate reward. As long as zero Americans die for Ukrainian democracy, all outcomes short of NATO membership for Ukraine are acceptable.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 16, 2022, 08:15:13 AM
Firefox has an incognito mode that they call something else. 🤔
It is called private mode on FF. Which is funny because the trackers still know who you are unless you have something to block trackers.
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 06:12:44 AM
Can't read in its entirety, paywall.
That's odd, I didn't get a paywall. Perhaps you had already read your free article for the month and I hadn't.
It speaks volumes about Todd that he brings up "translated German" as an issue.
Seriously, this is a man who, despite his Beethoven fetish, continually communicates American exceptionalism in everything he ever says about the modern world.
Just stop talking to him. If you're not American he finds you to be inherently amusing and won't actually listen to a damn thing you say. Because he believes in your inferiority.
Thanks, good article.
I agree that a coup is extremely unlikely. Authors hedge a bit in last para, but that seems to be wishful thinking.
Unrelated and mere speculation, but I have a feeling that an extraordinary counterespionage operation must have been carried out within the Ukrainian military.
When the invasion kicked off, I assumed that the Russians had seeded the Ukraine military command with all kinds of moles, sleeper agents, fifth columnists, etc., who would then sabotage/nullify Ukraine's defense. This seems not to have been the case, though I did read one story about two high-ranking presumed Ukrainian military traitors being arrested. I'm really surprised, and give Ukraine a lot of credit. I'm sure the Russians must have tried hard.
Ukraine may have had help from NATO, UK or US agencies. In any event, it certainly seems that Putin was upset with the failure to undermine Ukraine from within.
I was just forced to delete an article that a member posted here in toto from behind a paywall. While it was a very interesting article, I ask that you please keep in mind that the Forum owner can get sued for copyright infringement. Fair use bits and pieces that expose the gist will likely be fine if you don't push the limits too hard.
🤠😎 GB
Quote from: Madiel on April 16, 2022, 02:30:48 PMIt speaks volumes about Todd that he brings up "translated German" as an issue.
I also would not read 1000+ pages about Rome written in English by an American in the 19th Century.
Quote from: Madiel on April 16, 2022, 02:30:48 PM
It speaks volumes about Todd that he brings up "translated German" as an issue.
Seriously, this is a man who, despite his Beethoven fetish, continually communicates American exceptionalism in everything he ever says about the modern world.
Just stop talking to him. If you're not American he finds you to be inherently amusing and won't actually listen to a damn thing you say. Because he believes in your inferiority.
He treats us Americans the same way.
TD
Especially for 71dB
From Twitter, this is supposed to be a Finnish reaction to Russia's threats
https://twitter.com/Odessa_Journal/status/1515399841236541443
Quote from: JBS on April 16, 2022, 06:20:38 PM
He treats us Americans the same way.
His friends always speak highly of him, though.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 16, 2022, 06:54:36 PM
His friends always speak highly of him, though.
:laugh: :laugh:
Quote from: Florestan on April 16, 2022, 06:53:00 AM
Todd, have you read Theodor Mommsen's Roman History? If not, I urge you to read it. I know no other history book which explains that clearly and in such a stylsih prose (the work won him the Nobel Prize for Literature) the inexorable logic which lies behind the birth, growth and expansion of an empire. Far from being something irrational and unnatural, NATO and its expansion is the only too logical consequence of the original USA taking the very first expansionist step.
Actually, I recommend this three-volume treatise to anyone interested in history --- political, geopolitical, social, religious and cultural. A fascinating reading.
Following up on this I see there was once an Everyman/Dent edition, though I don't remember ever encountering it in secondhand bookshops.
(https://pictures.abebooks.com/inventory/30309629039_2.jpg)
Quote from: JBS on April 16, 2022, 06:20:38 PM
He treats us Americans the same way.
Seems like he does. :-\
Quote from: JBS on April 16, 2022, 06:22:19 PM
TD
Especially for 71dB
From Twitter, this is supposed to be a Finnish reaction to Russia's threats
https://twitter.com/Odessa_Journal/status/1515399841236541443
I have no clue how to comment on this....
Fake photos of the damaged Moskva have been published, but this one seems more accepted
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1515878099161952260
And now a video
( "It was a special wind operation; the wind was so fast, that the water had even no time to form waves." )
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1515958749705478152
'Novaya Gazeta' story including interview. Mentions three missiles (?) and around 40 fatalities. The captain survived, as seen on the parade video. That the start of the parade video is silent probably reflects that sensitive information, say about the number of sailors present, is being announced.
https://novayagazetaeu.substack.com/p/--29c (in Russian)
Look's like a new dimension in drone usage:
https://warriormaven.com/sea/united-states-sends-drone-boats-ukraine
Quote from: LKB on April 19, 2022, 07:48:33 AM
Look's like a new dimension in drone usage:
https://warriormaven.com/sea/united-states-sends-drone-boats-ukraine
As with the delivery of Switchblade drones to Ukrainian forces, this represents an excellent chance to field test existing hardware against the Russians - in preparation for use against the Chinese. Oh, and some war profiteers get to make a few bucks.
Quote from: Todd on April 19, 2022, 07:58:36 AM
As with the delivery of Switchblade drones to Ukrainian forces, this represents an excellent chance to field test existing hardware against the Russians - in preparation for use against the Chinese. Oh, and some war profiteers get to make a few bucks.
Obviously. But if it helps the Ukrainians, I'm all for it.
Quote from: LKB on April 19, 2022, 08:26:48 AM
Obviously. But if it helps the Ukrainians, I'm all for it.
It may very well end up causing yet another tit-for-tat, like when the Moskva was destroyed and Russia fired missiles at a variety of cities, including cities it had not bombarded yet, killing more civilians. That can be construed as a sort of help, I guess.
I'd say it is surreal that people would ever say that they are for field testing weapons systems and war profiteering given the abysmal history of the US in this regard, but then we all live in Creel's world now.
Ukraine says Russia's offensive in Donbas has begun. Here's what we know (https://www.npr.org/2022/04/19/1093501394/ukraine-russia-donbas-offensive)
Ukraine did not capitulate quickly, perhaps as they were expected to. Russia has continued on pulverizing its smaller neighbor, despite the triumphalist proclamations of its military ineptitude by war cheerleaders sitting thousands of miles away. (It is notable that currently serving military leaders have been much more circumspect in their assessment of Russian weakness and incompetence than netizens.) One must wonder how long this will last and how many thousands more civilians will die.
It is also worth noting that the official line of the Ukrainian government is at odds with other analyses, as the linked article indicates.
Quote from: LKB on April 19, 2022, 08:26:48 AM
Obviously. But if it helps the Ukrainians, I'm all for it.
The weapons sent to Ukraine have all been well tested.
Thousands of miles away observers are feeding accurate information about the war to cheerleaders. Given the foggy nature of warfare it's not perfect. Sifting truth from propaganda does require some skill, but it's not much different from what you use to handle the media bias problem, which is mostly pseudo. If you can't handle that, then maybe war will be too much for you, too.
I failed at profiteering, so I can't claim any special insight into it. If anyone has a hot tip, I'm all ears.
Youtube gave me this suggestion which I really enjoyed. Basically, a young Russian girl answering Westerners youtube questions about the Russian experience of the invasion. I will confess, at the start I was ambivalent, but it does show that Russians (especially younger Russians who are savvy and maybe have experienced other countries) are victims and at risk of their wellbeing and safety to resist. What do you all think? It's so frustrating that this is happening but so complicated when you hear her response to why Russians seem to support Putin, etc. I'm just sad at this gross injustice but don't know how to process it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFL8YXp_Reo
Quote from: relm1 on April 19, 2022, 04:40:21 PM
Youtube gave me this suggestion which I really enjoyed. Basically, a young Russian girl answering Westerners youtube questions about the Russian experience of the invasion. I will confess, at the start I was ambivalent, but it does show that Russians (especially younger Russians who are savvy and maybe have experienced other countries) are victims and at risk of their wellbeing and safety to resist. What do you all think? It's so frustrating that this is happening but so complicated when you hear her response to why Russians seem to support Putin, etc. I'm just sad at this gross injustice but don't know how to process it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFL8YXp_Reo
The Russians have indeed been Putin's first victims.
Quote from: relm1 on April 19, 2022, 04:40:21 PM
Youtube gave me this suggestion which I really enjoyed. Basically, a young Russian girl answering Westerners youtube questions about the Russian experience of the invasion. I will confess, at the start I was ambivalent, but it does show that Russians (especially younger Russians who are savvy and maybe have experienced other countries) are victims and at risk of their wellbeing and safety to resist. What do you all think? It's so frustrating that this is happening but so complicated when you hear her response to why Russians seem to support Putin, etc. I'm just sad at this gross injustice but don't know how to process it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFL8YXp_Reo
I've been following Natasha for a few months. One of her vids talked about her trip to America. Her vid about getting a drivers license has 176,000 views.
Quote from: drogulus on April 19, 2022, 06:32:40 PM
I've been following Natasha for a few months. One of her vids talked about her trip to America. Her vid about getting a drivers license has 176,000 views.
America must be incredibly jarring for someone from a small Russian town. A few years ago, I had a neighbor who was from Western Russia (he was Moscow, but his wife was near the border of Finland). Very lovely and warm family who were such fish out of water. We couldn't communicate without google translator which was quite funny as they were speaking to me in fluent Russian even though I don't speak it at all and of course I was responding in English which they couldn't understand even if it was simply "yes". It was quite funny actually. They invited me to their home for dinner and gave me borscht which was quite delicious then we sat miscommunicating with each other while having vodka. They had two very young adorable kids who didn't speak any English and then started preschool, how jarring that must have been to all of them. I wish them peace and removal of Putin. He's a very bad man.
What If the War in Ukraine Doesn't End?
The Global Consequences of a Long Conflict (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-04-20/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=What%20If%20the%20War%20in%20Ukraine%20Doesn%E2%80%99t%20End?&utm_content=20220420&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Quote from: Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage
Time could be on Russia's side. A protracted war, lasting from months to years, might be an acceptable and perhaps even favorable outcome for Moscow...
Ukraine also has many reasons not to end the war through a premature cease-fire on Russian terms...
Other conflicts, such as the war in Syria that has long faded from view, demonstrate that a never-ending war can become a nuisance to comfortable and distracted societies, receiving little more than neglect over time.
For what it's worth (there seems to be a coordinated Western strategy to goad Putin with news headlines):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/putin-s-war-in-ukraine-has-russian-elites-fearing-global-isolation
Almost eight weeks after Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, with military losses mounting and Russia facing unprecedented international isolation, a small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning his decision to go to war.
The ranks of the critics at the pinnacle of power remain limited, spread across high-level posts in government and state-run business. They believe the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back for years, according to ten people with direct knowledge of the situation. All spoke on condition of anonymity, too fearful of retribution to comment publicly.
So far, these people see no chance the Russian president will change course and no prospect of any challenge to him at home. More and more reliant on a narrowing circle of hardline advisers, Putin has dismissed attempts by other officials to warn him of the crippling economic and political cost, they said....
Probable paywall which could be circumvented.
Quote from: T. D. on April 20, 2022, 08:14:54 AMthere seems to be a coordinated Western strategy to goad Putin with news headlines
So is western war propaganda working?
Now are the MIGs, approximately 20 of them. Don't ask where they came from. It seems that some of them came as parts you can assemble at home, or there might be parts that enable Uke planes to return to service. In addition there are helicopters
Some of the best propaganda comes from Russian TV shows. I also think the intercepted phone calls of Russian soldiers calling their moms and wives are plusgood.
Did you know you could only get $10k in fiat currency for a used Russian T-72 in the Ukraine market? That's not enough to buy a 2017 Toyota Corolla in the US.
Quote from: Todd on April 20, 2022, 06:44:42 AM
What If the War in Ukraine Doesn't End?
The Global Consequences of a Long Conflict (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-04-20/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=What%20If%20the%20War%20in%20Ukraine%20Doesn%E2%80%99t%20End?&utm_content=20220420&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Interesting. At the start of this, a friend of mine said he hoped Russia would get bogged down like in Afghanistan. Frankly, I don't know the history well. I'm assuming there's some chance that a protracted war in Ukraine could have the opposite effect. That is, it could weaken Putin and Russia? Of course, more killing can't be a good thing in itself, even if the outcome justifies the sacrifice in some people's minds. But it's worth considering how Russia could keep it going and wear down Ukraine and its supporters.
The Soviet Union was much more successful in Afghanistan. They overwhelmed any defenses and installed a puppet regime within weeks. A long relentless insurgency followed, which undermined the Soviet Union itself. Purim's plan to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenses and install a pro-Russian regime failed. Even if he eventually gains Ukrainian territory the insurgency will follow.
Ukraine now has more tanks in the country than Russia. See, free markets work.
Quote from: drogulus on April 21, 2022, 01:57:57 PM
Ukraine now has more tanks in the country than Russia. See, free markets work.
Tanks? They now call them mobile crematories, don't they?
Quote from: Spotted Horses on April 20, 2022, 07:07:44 PM
The Soviet Union was much more successful in Afghanistan. They overwhelmed any defenses and installed a puppet regime within weeks. A long relentless insurgency followed, which undermined the Soviet Union itself. Purim's plan to overwhelm the Ukrainian defenses and install a pro-Russian regime failed. Even if he eventually gains Ukrainian territory the insurgency will follow.
Sounds like "bogged down."
QuoteThe Interfax news agency reports the deputy commander of Russia's central military district, Rustam Minnekayev, said it plans to take full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine as part of the second phase of the military operation.
Reuters notes he was also cited as saying that Russia planned to forge a land corridor between Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and Donbas.
And in a line that will be concerning to Chișinău, he is also reported to have said that control of Ukraine's south will give Russia another gateway to Moldova's breakaway region of Transnistria.
"Control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed," Tass quoted Minnekayev as saying at a meeting in Russia's central Sverdlovsk region.
This would mean that Odessa isn't safe after all and that Russia wants to push west, all the way to the Ukranian borders with Romania and Moldova... Another Pandora's box...
QuoteTransnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed
Yet another tipically Russian lie. Transnistria is de facto independent from Moldova and is home to the former 14th Army of the USSR, once headed by the (in)famous late Gen. Alexander Lebed who in the 1990s stated they can occupy Bucharest in 24 hours.
Quote from: Que on April 22, 2022, 03:26:25 AM
This would mean that Odessa isn't safe after all and that Russia wants to push west, all the way to the Ukranian borders with Romania and Moldova... Another Pandora's box...
The real question is whether Russia is capable of pushing west or even holding the positions they occupy now.
The Black Sea fleet was supposed to support an amphibious landing near Odesa to accomplish their goal of taking the city and eventually linking up with Transnistria. I don't see that happening.
From a couple of days ago, a minority opinion:
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/destroy-the-russian-army-now-or-putins-world-order-wins/
Quote from: drogulus on April 22, 2022, 07:01:37 AM
The real question is whether Russia is capable of pushing west or even holding the positions they occupy now.
The Black Sea fleet was supposed to support an amphibious landing near Odesa to accomplish their goal of taking the city and eventually linking up with Transnistria. I don't see that happening.
I agree. But Russia's attempt will cause more unnecessary bloodshed and means it will be even more difficult for Putin to safe face in case of failure. But I hope it will overstretch Russian military capabilities and turn out to be another strategic blunder...
Quote from: LKB on April 22, 2022, 07:16:08 AM
From a couple of days ago, a minority opinion:
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/destroy-the-russian-army-now-or-putins-world-order-wins/
Quote from: Larry SeaquistIn this case, bolder is safer.
(https://logopond.com/logos/162a4a12e09b9bfea452f5f21cfab207.png)
The most important oil sanctions will be from the service companies.
https://www.youtube.com/v/V7VIDduNpPQ
Quote from: drogulus on April 22, 2022, 08:49:13 AM
The most important oil sanctions will be from the service companies.
It is a little ambiguous what Halliburton and Slumberger are doing. Looking at some reports, some say Halliburton is suspending work, but others say they are stopping "new" business. If you are making hole you can't just turn the rig off an go home without creating a dangerous and/or environmentally catastrophic situation.
The sad fact for Russia is that their exports are almost entirely petroleum and minerals, and they can't even extract their own petroleum without western service companies (Haliburton, Slumberger, Baker-Hughes).
'Realistic possibility': UK PM Boris Johnson on whether Russia could 'win' war against Ukraine (https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/realistic-possibility-uk-pm-boris-johnson-on-whether-russia-could-win-war-against-ukraine-101650643789879.html)
How Ukraine does it, it's astounding...
Two Russian generals have been killed near Kherson, the Ukrainian ministry of defence's intelligence directorate has said. Another is in critical condition.
Quote from: Que on April 23, 2022, 07:13:49 AM
How Ukraine does it, it's astounding...
Two Russian generals have been killed near Kherson, the Ukrainian ministry of defence's intelligence directorate has said. Another is in critical condition.
I can hardly wait for Putin to inspect the troops... ;D
In the 'selfie of the year' meme series, this:
(https://i.redd.it/fql1ixxlkkq81.jpg)
Quote from: Que on April 23, 2022, 07:13:49 AM
How Ukraine does it, it's astounding...
Apparently, the Russian army is unable to communicate via encrypted lines, so the Ukes can follow the movements of those generals.
I wonder how Edward Snowden feels about living in Russia now.
Snowden has never been more than a naive child, and l personally wouldn't spare one second in thinking about him.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on April 23, 2022, 06:32:18 PM
I wonder how Edward Snowden feels about living in Russia now.
I'm sure it's better than sitting in a box for 50 years.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on April 23, 2022, 06:32:18 PM
I wonder how Edward Snowden feels about living in Russia now.
He's currently engaged in attacking democracy errors in Denmark, in an interview with one of our papers. Attacks limited free speech in the intelligence services.
Though he does have a point (already made by local press here), it's not really the biggest of problems right now.
Germany seemed to be ready to assume the leadership role in Europe, but it seems that social-democratic chancellor Scholz is letting this opportunity slip away and is even politically isolating Germany.
His coalition partner, the Green party is not happy about this. I wouldn't be surprised if the German govt would fall over this and would, after fresh elections, be replaced by a govt from the right. A more hawkish govt that paradoxically, for strategic geopolitical reasons, would have less reservations to cut energy ties with Russia...
QuoteScholz's Ukraine Strategy No Longer Enough for Germany's Allies
Germany's Ukraine policy could strain effort to contain Putin
Scholz has little wiggle room on weapons supplies, sanctions
By Michael Nienaber (Bloomberg), April 20, 2022
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is getting left behind by the international effort to help Ukraine stand up to Russia and has no obvious way back into the fold.
The 63-year-old Social Democrat has resisted directly supplying tanks and other heavy weapons to Ukraine and opposed an embargo of Russian oil and gas. His policies have him in a tight corner and risk holding back Germany's allies just as Russia embarks on a new offensive in eastern Ukraine.
After bringing Germany's defense policy more in line with its partners in the early stages of Vladimir Putin's invasion, Scholz has failed to keep pace with the changing dynamics. Evidence of war crimes by Russian troops and Ukraine's tenacious defense have led to calls for more aggressive action, especially by fellow NATO members in the Baltics.
"Now is not the time for sitting on the fence or showing a mere token support to Ukraine," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters on Wednesday at a news conference in Riga, standing next to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
He also called on Germany to "do the right thing" and back a proposal to sanction Russian oil imports in the next package of European Union measures. "We understand that it is a very difficult political and economic decision that has to be explained to the people in Germany," Landsbergis said. "But I think that in this case, probably it's unavoidable."
Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council, was more blunt. "The Germans must firmly support Ukraine today if we are to believe that they have drawn conclusions from their own history," he said on Twitter.
After a video call with Group of Seven counterparts on Tuesday, Scholz had an opportunity to counter mounting criticism. Instead, he obfuscated. He said Germany didn't have equipment to send Ukraine, questioned the ability of Kyiv's military to operate modern weapons systems and insisted Berlin wouldn't become directly involved in the war.
While Scholz -- who hasn't visited Kyiv in recent weeks unlike many European counterparts -- did offer to pay for certain orders from German defense suppliers, there was a catch: modern heavy weapons such as Leopard and Marder tanks weren't on offer, according to Ukraine's envoy in Berlin.
"The weapons that we need aren't on this list," Ambassador Andrij Melnyk told public broadcaster ZDF after Scholz's press conference. "We believe that the Germany military would still be able to supply us with weapons that are required right now." Melnyk met with senior officials from Scholz's party on Wednesday to make his case for heavy weapons and smooth over a flap triggered by the envoy's criticism of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier over close relations to Putin when he was foreign minister. After the meeting, he told RTL television that the two sides were "still moving too slowly" toward one another.
In late February, Scholz shocked critics by trashing Germany's long tradition of not sending weapons to conflict zones and decided to deliver hundreds of anti-tank and anti-air missiles to Ukraine. In a historic policy shift, he also announced a 100 billion-euro ($108 billion) fund to bolster Germany's military capabilities after years of neglect. He's now offering to provide ammunition and train Ukraine forces on a self-propelled, rapid-fire artillery system, according to a senior government official. But the equipment will be supplied via the Netherlands.
Scholz's current stance has been criticized by members from his ruling alliance. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a senior lawmaker from the Free Democrats, said the chancellor's plans for weapons deliveries on Tuesday fell short. "You have to fight for freedom and human rights, and there wasn't enough concrete information on that," she said on Twitter. "We're still too far behind."
Anton Hofreiter, a veteran lawmaker from the Greens, echoed those comments in an interview with Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper, warning that a third world war could break out if Ukraine doesn't stop Putin.
Questions have also been raised about Germany's resistance to energy sanctions. A national effort to optimize supplies and reduce demand could offset Russian gas supplies as soon as this winter, according to a report by Berlin-based thinktank DIW.
While Scholz -- who succeeded Angela Merkel in December -- can't immediately undo years of underspending on defense or recreate Germany's energy system in a few months, he could be more forceful in his response. Instead, he's been dismissive, referring to critics as "boys and girls." In a commentary on Wednesday, Bild newspaper accused Scholz of failing to making a series of mistakes in Ukraine, including failing to protect Germany's national interests by stopping Putin and insufficiently distancing himself from his former boss Gerhard Schroeder and other Social Democrats with ties to Russia.
Still, Scholz's cautious approach has received backing from his cabinet. Finance Minister Christian Lindner -- also the head of the FDP -- told Bloomberg TV Wednesday that Germany was "open" to deliver further weapons but only "under the condition" that Germany's defense responsibilities aren't affected and the country doesn't become an actor in the war.
Economy Minister Robert Habeck -- a former co-leader of the Greens -- supported Scholz's plans to replace Soviet-model weapons sent from Eastern European partners with modern equipment. "The federal government is acting and will ensure that the quality and quantity of direct and indirect arms deliveries continue to increase rapidly," he said in an interview with the Rheinische Post newspaper.
But pressure is growing and is unlikely to let up. The opposition CDU is calling for parliamentary debate on Germany's Ukraine policy, and Scholz has left himself with little wiggle room. "We're half-hearted," said Johann Wadepfuhl, deputy parliamentary leader for the conservative party. "We're not completely on the side of the Ukrainians, and this is a serious geopolitical mistake for which Olaf Scholz is responsible."
Quote from: milk on April 23, 2022, 07:15:34 PM
I'm sure it's better than sitting in a box for 50 years.
For doing exactly the right thing.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 23, 2022, 07:45:42 PMThough he does have a point (already made by local press here), it's not really the biggest of problems right now.
But it's still a big problem that needs to be addressed right now, along with other problems.
Quote from: Que on April 23, 2022, 10:57:39 PMGermany seemed to be ready to assume the leadership role in Europe, but it seems that social-democratic chancellor Scholz is letting this opportunity slip away and is even politically isolating Germany.
There is little reason to believe that the Russo-Ukrainian war will fundamentally alter pre-existing tendencies in Europe since altering underlying physical realities - energy delivery, for instance - will take years and additional billions of dollars. Expect to see current expanded military budgets shrink and promised expenditures never come to fruition.
Also, the fiercest European opponents of Russia are obviously Eastern Europeans. This type of split creates openings for opponents of greater European integration to foment discord.
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 06:35:24 AM
the fiercest European opponents of Russia are obviously Eastern Europeans.
Obviously, the fiercest opponents of Russia are those nations which have experienced Russian dominion / menace / interference first-hand and for a long time --- Romania included.
QuoteThis type of split creates openings for opponents of greater European integration to foment discord.
If you really believe this is good for the USA you are delusional --- gravely so.
Quote from: André on April 23, 2022, 09:48:29 AM
In the 'selfie of the year' meme series, this:
(https://i.redd.it/fql1ixxlkkq81.jpg)
Inshallah! May God forgive me for sinning on Easter Day --- I just couldn't resist.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 07:06:19 AM
Inshallah!
May God forgive me for sinning on Easter Day --- I just couldn't resist.
Desiring the downfall of evil is a healthy thought and thoughts are not sins — unless you're a Roman Catholic. ;)
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 24, 2022, 07:16:13 AM
Desiring the downfall of evil is a healthy thought and thoughts are not sins — unless you're a Roman Catholic. ;)
I'm an Eastern Orthodox. ;)
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 07:38:22 AM
I'm an Eastern Orthodox. ;)
So am I, and I feel the same, evil begets evil. We are given the choice between good and bad, free to decide, every side has consequences, I will always go the towards the good. It is no sin to wish evil be annihilated. Christ has risen my friends, lets remember this.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 07:38:22 AM
I'm an Eastern Orthodox. ;)
Quote from: "Harry" on April 24, 2022, 07:42:42 AM
So am I, and I feel the same, evil begets evil. We are given the choice between good and bad, free to decide, every side has consequences, I will always go the towards the good. It is no sin to wish evil be annihilated. Christ has risen my friends, lets remember this.
My friends, I'm smiling at the thought of the signature of a "virtual acquaintance" of yore: I don't belong to an organized religion; I'm Eastern Orthodox."
Quote from: "Harry" on April 24, 2022, 07:42:42 AM
Christ has risen
Indeed He has risen!
Quote from: "Harry" on April 24, 2022, 07:42:42 AM
We are given the choice between good and bad, free to decide
Indeed. God can save nobody against their own will.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 06:59:45 AMIf you really believe this is good for the USA you are delusional
I know that effective European integration would establish a strategic challenger to the US, and perhaps, over time, an enemy that the US would have to go to war with. Europeans do not place American economic or security interests above European economic and security interests. The two sets of interests overlap in many cases, but they are distinct. Despite the standard narrative that a/the transatlantic "partnership" serves as the basis of some type of unique framework that will preserve world peace forever, and deter bad actors from shenanigans (which is clearly not the case), it is in fact only a temporary arrangement that will disintegrate at some point. The supreme strategic goal of the US should be the avoidance of great power war. As such, the US should take steps to prevent the establishment of another near peer. Given Europe's splintered, violent, fractious history, preventing effective integration of Europe should be simple enough. It is
much better to partner with specific European powers in a fluid, transactional way. The current war gives the US the ability to do that to an extent. The AUKUS deal shows that even with bold talk of a unified front, even the current administration will act in US interest first, which every administration should. More like that needs to be done. Basically, Nixon and Kissinger were right five decades ago, and the US needs to elect new administrations that are hostile to a unified Europe, but competent enough to take effective, disruptive action.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 24, 2022, 07:47:52 AM
My friends, I'm smiling at the thought of the signature of a "virtual acquaintance" of yore: I don't belong to an organized religion; I'm Eastern Orthodox."
Many moons ago I did consider converting to Roman Catholicism. I thank God Almighty that eventually I came to my senses and desisted. I was baptized an Eastern Orthodox, I am a faithful Eastern Orthodox by personal, conscious choice and I will die a faithful Eastern Orthodox.
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 08:01:44 AM
I know that effective European integration would establish a strategic challenger to the US, and perhaps, over time, an enemy that the US would have to go to war with.
Jezus Maria!
Doamne, Maica Domnului!No, really, you lost me right here right now!
If you really believe that (1) EU is an enemy to the USA, and (2) a war between USA and EU is more probable than a war betwwen USA and Russia then you are not only delusional, you are plainly a madman (and it pains me to write it).
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:19:10 AM
Jezus Maria!
Doamne, Maica Domnului!
No, really, you lost me right here right now!
If you really believe that (1) EU is an enemy to the USA, and (2) a war between USA and EU is more probable than a war betwwen USA and Russia then you are not only delusional, you are plainly a madman (and it pains me to write it).
Todd is out to annoy everyone with his silly delusional ramblings.
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 08:01:44 AM
Given Europe's splintered, violent, fractious history,
As different from the USA's smooth as silk history...
Just ask the American Indians... or the French... or the Mexicans... .or the fellow Americans of the Confederation...
Yet despite all that, I'd rather live under US's hegemony than Russia's.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 07:38:22 AM
I'm an Eastern Orthodox. ;)
The main religion in Finland is germanic Evangelical Lutheran Christianity. My parents also belong to that Church and so did I before I resigned from it because my personal beliefs do not agree well with the church. I'm simply like anyone born anywhere in the World in any family background without the belief in deities, an atheist.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:19:10 AMIf you really believe that (1) EU is an enemy to the USA, and (2) a war between USA and EU is more probable than a war betwwen USA and Russia then you are not only delusional, you are plainly a madman (and it pains me to write it).
It is 2022. A unified Europe does not exist. Over time, were a unified Europe to come into existence, it would pose a greater economic threat to the US than Russia has since the collapse of the USSR, and over time, given the importance of economic interests, Europe could pose a military threat that could result in war between the US and Europe. Such a scenario, as unlikely as it may seem now, is at least a couple decades out, and would be easy to prevent: prevent effective European integration. Again, this is not a new outlook. This has been contemplated for at least a half century now.
Russia is still a powerful nation state, and still the closest near peer in terms of military power to the US, despite triumphalist assessments online of Russian capabilities. The real Russian threat to US security is Russia's nuclear arsenal. Russian military actions in Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine do not threaten US security. (Likewise, Soviet misbehavior in Hungary and Czechoslovakia had no impact on US security.) Possible Russian actions may impact US economic interests, primarily in commodity markets. We see some of that now. Some of it is self-inflicted.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:29:48 AMAs different from the USA's smooth as silk history...
Of course US history is brutal. The history of all great powers is brutal. That is how they become great powers.
It should be noted though that there has been no war between North American nation states since 1848, unless one counts the whole Pancho Villa episode. Contrast that with European history since 1848.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 24, 2022, 08:35:15 AM
The main religion in Finland is germanic Evangelical Lutheran Christianity. My parents also belong to that Church and so did I before I resigned from it because my personal beliefs do not agree well with the church. I'm simply like anyone born anywhere in the World in any family background without the belief in deities, an atheist.
I have no problem whatsoever with you being an atheist. On the contrary, I'm sure that should we ever met in person, we'd get along just fine. :-*
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 08:37:42 AM
there has been no war between North American nation states since 1848, unless one counts the whole Pancho Villa episode.
You're being disingenuous here --- and you know it only too well.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:19:10 AM
Jezus Maria!
Doamne, Maica Domnului!
No, really, you lost me right here right now!
If you really believe that (1) EU is an enemy to the USA, and (2) a war between USA and EU is more probable than a war betwwen USA and Russia then you are not only delusional, you are plainly a madman (and it pains me to write it).
Who knows what he really believes? If he knows, himself.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:44:00 AM
You're being disingenuous here --- and you know it only too well.
It is a factual statement. There has been no war between North American nation states since 1848, at the conclusion of one of the most successful land grab wars in human history.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:41:14 AM
I have no problem whatsoever with you being an atheist. On the contrary, I'm sure that should we ever met in person, we'd get along just fine. :-*
Indeed!
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 08:47:42 AM
There has been no war between North American nation states since 1848
What North American
nation states were there in 1848?
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:49:52 AM
What North American nation states were there in 1848?
I suspect you know the answer.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:49:52 AM
What North American nation states were there in 1848?
Have to admit this has the look of just trolling on someone's part.
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 08:51:46 AM
I suspect you know the answer.
Well, yes, I know it: none, zilch, nada, nechevo.
Which only stresses my point: you're being disingenuous.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:41:14 AM
I have no problem whatsoever with you being an atheist. On the contrary, I'm sure that should we ever met in person, we'd get along just fine. :-*
Religion comes between people only when it is radicalized. 0:)
technically speaking, the native American nations did not form formal states, you'd have to go to Central and South America to find that sort of level of civilization
Quote from: Scion7 on April 24, 2022, 09:08:48 AM
technically speaking, the native American nations did not form formal states, you'd have to go to Central and South America to find that sort of level of civilization
Only if by
civilization you mean having one's heart, lungs, liver and loins eaten.
Thank God the Spanish conquest and rule put an end to such abominations.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 07:38:22 AM
I'm an Eastern Orthodox. ;)
Happy Easter to you!
(My father was baptized Eastern Orthodox - Polish Orthodox, to be specific. And that reveals a mystery that cannot now be resolved, because he was born in 1914, but the Polish Orthodox Church was only established in 1924. I I have to imagine that he was raised as a traditional Eastern Orthodox before the Polish church was created. No way to ask him now...)
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 08:53:52 AM
Well, yes, I know it: none, zilch, nada, nechevo.
That is inaccurate.
Quote from: krummholz on April 24, 2022, 09:19:27 AM
Happy Easter to you!
To you too, thanks.
Quote(My father was baptized Eastern Orthodox - Polish Orthodox, to be specific. And that reveals a mystery that cannot now be resolved, because he was bquoteorn in 1914, but the Polish Orthodox Church was only established in 1924. I I have to imagine that he was raised as a traditional Eastern Orthodox before the Polish church was created. No way to ask him now...)
Well, here's a glass of wine to your late Polish Orthodox father --- and to all GMGers, past present and future no matter what their religion or lack thereof.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 09:34:22 AM
Please correct me.
I did. I pointed out that your statement is inaccurate. It also highlights an ongoing issue. People cannot even agree on basic facts. Something similar occurred pertaining to Napoleon's success or lack thereof in his war against Russia. Or, more germane to this overall topic, what security and economic issues are at stake for the US in Ukraine.
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 09:45:54 AM
I did. I pointed out that your statement is inaccurate.
You emphatically did not.
Once again, I ask you: what
nation states* were there in North America after 1848?
* your very term
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 09:50:26 AMYou emphatically did not.
I did. This appears to be a case where you and I have very different understandings of the phrase 'nation state'. And so it goes.
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 09:45:54 AM
Or, more germane to this overall topic, what security and economic issues are at stake for the US in Ukraine.
You must be a terrible chess player if you can only see the immediate board and think only one move ahead.
We should play for money.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 07:38:22 AM
I'm an Eastern Orthodox. ;)
I know; Your Easter is a week later than the Roman Catholics' this year. Theirs is on the lunar calendar linked to Passover (Last Supper/seder).
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 24, 2022, 07:47:52 AM
My friends, I'm smiling at the thought of the signature of a "virtual acquaintance" of yore: I don't belong to an organized religion; I'm Eastern Orthodox."
If he thought EO was not organized, I can only wonder what he thought of us Jews.
On a more serious note: my normal route to work goes by one of the few Ukrainian Orthodox churches in my area. Normally there is at most a handful of cars in the parking lot. I have no idea of how large their congregation is, nor what their usual attendance on Easter is, but today there were a number of cars parked on the street and a line of at least two dozen cars waiting to enter the parking lot/church entrance: first time I've ever seen them that crowded.
Ukraine war: US wants to see a weakened Russia (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61214176)
Ukraine thus reveals its usefulness as a killing field.
Unrepentant Schroeder exposes German coalition rift over Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unrepentant-schroeder-exposes-german-coalition-rift-over-ukraine-2022-04-25/)
Quote from: Thomas Escritt and Paul CarrelIn a weekend New York Times interview he [Schroeder] said Germany had also benefited from his ties to Putin, though he said he would resign if Russia ever stopped sending Germany gas.
Gerhard Schroeder, man of the people.
Quote from: Todd on April 25, 2022, 06:14:09 AM
Ukraine war: US wants to see a weakened Russia (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61214176)
Ukraine thus reveals its usefulness as a killing field.
Unrepentant Schroeder exposes German coalition rift over Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unrepentant-schroeder-exposes-german-coalition-rift-over-ukraine-2022-04-25/)
Gerhard Schroeder, man of the people.
He is what Chamberlain was to England in the beginning of the WW II. One could say that Chamberlain was naive to a fault. Schroeder is just a war criminal, and a profiteur pur sang, as long as the expensive gifts and the money flows in, Schroeder does not give a damn about the genocide of the Ukraines, if Poetin thinks its okay its okay for Schroeder.
Quote from: "Harry" on April 25, 2022, 07:09:41 AMHe is what Chamberlain was to England in the beginning of the world.
Yeah, sure.
Quote from: Todd on April 25, 2022, 07:18:51 AM
Yeah, sure.
O, yeah I forgot, you are a know all person. :laugh: :laugh:
I don't know how to repel an invader without weakening it. Zelensky is convinced that Russia must be defeated or Ukraine will never be safe. He is right.
Note that at first the US/NATO strategy was to support Ukraine with hand held weapons on the assumption that Russia would prevail on the battlefield and therefore the goal was to support a Uke insurgency based in the west of the country and guerilla warfare in urban areas.
The situation has changed rather dramatically and this is revealed both in the kinds of weapons delivered and the statements by officials in allied countries. The view of Zelensky turned out to be realistic after all. That's why they are getting heavy weapons that were denied to them earlier.
Quote from: Todd on April 24, 2022, 10:02:16 AM
I did. This appears to be a case where you and I have very different understandings of the phrase 'nation state'. And so it goes.
Never mind. Yesterday I was both in contrarian mood and a little drunk from celebrating Easter. :D
Fires rip through Russian oil depots not far from the Ukrainian border. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/25/world/europe/russian-oil-facility-fire-ukraine.html)
Large fires tore through oil depots on Monday in Bryansk, a Russian city less than 100 miles from the Ukrainian border that is a key logistical hub in Russia's war effort.
Russian officials said they were investigating the cause. The fires took place on the same day that Russian forces targeted critical infrastructure across Ukraine.
Russian state television reported two separate explosions. One was at a civilian oil storage facility — part of a pipeline that links Russian oil fields with Europe — and the other was at a military oil depot. One blaze engulfed an oil tank that held 10,000 tons of diesel fuel, state television reported; the other contained 5,000 tons of diesel.
Russia has accused Ukraine of conducting several attacks on border crossing points and other facilities inside the country.
Quote from: Florestan on April 24, 2022, 09:33:38 AM
To you too, thanks.
Thank you, but truth be told, I don't celebrate Easter really (on either day). I was baptised Roman Catholic since that is the branch to which my mother's side of the family belongs, but I have long ago since stopped adhering to that, or any other organised religion. If I had been around in the late 18th century I would probably have been a Deist as that view is closest to my own... God in all things (though as to a personal God, I consider myself agnostic). Maybe I am a secular humanist after all...
Quote
Well, here's a glass of wine to your late Polish Orthodox father --- and to all GMGers, past present and future no matter what their religion or lack thereof.
Thank you once again! :-*
Not surprising news, but still a significant development - and a big set back for Putin:
Sweden and Finland agree to submit Nato applications, say reports (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/sweden-and-finland-agree-to-submit-nato-applications)
I like this picture of the prime ministers of Sweden and Finland.
A subtle reminder that if this world was run by women instead of elderly sociopathic men, we probably wouldn't be in this mess...
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/0f61edc27fd6d5c7e8b06e5fa8d224862cecf9cc/0_136_3500_2100/master/3500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=da4a3a3b5765721ac866c54720ec26a0)
Quote from: Todd on April 25, 2022, 06:14:09 AM
Ukraine war: US wants to see a weakened Russia (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61214176)
Ukraine thus reveals its usefulness as a killing field.
Unrepentant Schroeder exposes German coalition rift over Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unrepentant-schroeder-exposes-german-coalition-rift-over-ukraine-2022-04-25/)
Gerhard Schroeder, man of the people.
I'm not going to scoff at these implications, although I think Putin deserves an ignominious defeat. And, I think it's probably not a good idea to brush off unpopular views without giving those views some serious thought. Of course I think the world would be better off without Putin. But we should also consider the cost of war, in lives and otherwise. I notice that my French and Swiss colleagues (here in Japan) are a little more war-skeptical. That may be why La Pen got something like 40% (and it could also be why she lost - other than the fact that she's disgusting to many French people). I'm totally out of my depth here but I do get nervous when everyone has the same narrative. We'd better be able to answer questions like: Was this war preventable? What's at stake for everyone? What's the worst-case scenario? What would prolong this war? What are the long-term implications? Etc. I hope Ukraine can prevail or enter negotiations from a strong position but I'm a sensing a bit of mania about this war in the media. It's not a given that this thing is good for the world or the U.S. (though I think Putin is bad). That remains to be seen.
Quote from: Que on April 25, 2022, 11:28:25 PM
Not surprising news, but still a significant development - and a big set back for Putin:
Sweden and Finland agree to submit Nato applications, say reports (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/sweden-and-finland-agree-to-submit-nato-applications)
I like this picture of the prime ministers of Sweden and Finland.
A subtle reminder that if this world was run by women instead of elderly sociopathic men, we probably wouldn't be in this mess...
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/0f61edc27fd6d5c7e8b06e5fa8d224862cecf9cc/0_136_3500_2100/master/3500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=da4a3a3b5765721ac866c54720ec26a0)
Pretty much guaranteed since Feb. 25th.
Russia will bluster and threaten, but considering their army's lackluster performance in Ukraine, no NATO member should be overly concerned.
Quote from: Que on April 25, 2022, 11:28:25 PMA subtle reminder that if this world was run by women instead of elderly sociopathic men, we probably wouldn't be in this mess...
That is doubtful, to say the least. The martial history of queens is not especially encouraging, and then of course there is Secretary of State Clinton
joking of Qaddafi "We came, we saw, he died." One need not review history much to see that women will shed the blood of thousands quite readily. Essentially nothing can be gleaned from a photo of two female heads of government from two small countries desperately seeking protection from the global hegemon.
Quote from: Todd on April 26, 2022, 04:39:05 AM
That is doubtful, to say the least. The martial history of queens is not especially encouraging, and then of course there is Secretary of State Clinton joking of Qaddafi "We came, we saw, he died." One need not review history much to see that women will shed the blood of thousands quite readily. Essentially nothing can be gleaned from a photo of two female heads of government from two small countries desperately seeking protection from the global hegemon.
I agree with the main point. But I don't see Finnish desperation. They've been conscientiously preparing their own defense for decades. It's rational bet hedging from a viable defensive partner.
Quote from: milk on April 25, 2022, 11:48:45 PMI'm a sensing a bit of mania about this war in the media.
In the US, the pro-war propaganda has been the most unyielding since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. And just like then, it worked, at least for a while. The rally around the flag effect is real, and it does not have to be the US flag, it can be an anointed flag. Fortunately for the administration, since US soldiers will not be sent to Ukraine, the threshold for support is much lower. There would be more resistance if American servicemembers were to go and die. There might even be large, completely ineffective protests like in 2003.
In the (so far) far deadlier wars in Syria and Yemen there was and has been no similar degree of war cheerleading, due to a variety of factors. Race is one, certainly. (Similarly, the genocide in Myanmar receives almost no attention in the popular press in the US.) White people are dying and that imparts a greater sense of urgency. Complexity is another reason. The relative role of putative allies is another. The US will never react quite so badly to actions, even of the most horrific sort, taken by the House of Saud. The strategic implications of the war in Yemen are quite significant to the region as a whole, and can be considered as important to US interests as the fate of Ukraine, but one would never know it from the comparative press coverage.
Press coverage has started to wane a bit in the last couple weeks as it has become clear that this will be a longer war than anticipated. Now the stories will be repetitive; attention wanders and priorities change. Ukraine will receive all manner of support - just yesterday the administration boasted of sending almost $4 billion in military aid so far - and the US announced its policy of weakening Russia yesterday, which means the support will continue to flow as the US actively helps to prolong the war in Ukraine. Thousands more will die, maybe tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, but they will all be in Ukraine and the blood will all be Slavic. The refugee crisis will be confined primarily to Eastern Europe, and even if it spills into Western Europe, that means basically nothing from an American perspective. Ukrainian blood will help further perceived US strategic interests - here, a supposedly weakened Russia, though the US is still constrained in actions it can directly take. I hope Ukrainian people and politicians do not have high hopes for US rewards and actions after the war ends.
Ukraine prepares war crimes charges against Russian military personnel, including pilots (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-prepares-war-crimes-charges-against-russian-military-personnel-including-2022-04-26/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily-briefing)
Quote from: Anthony DeutschDavid Schwendiman, a former U.S. federal prosecutor who has also helped prosecute war crimes committed during the Balkan wars in the 1990s, praised Ukraine's prosecutor general as talented and courageous but said the country doesn't have experience of an investigation of this scale and will need outside help processing potential crime scenes in a way that meets international standards.
The show trials cannot begin soon enough.
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 26, 2022, 04:59:02 AM
I agree with the main point. But I don't see Finnish desperation. They've been conscientiously preparing their own defense for decades. It's rational bet hedging from a viable defensive partner.
From the NATO perspective it's much appreciated.
(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/G3N30M/arctic-region-political-map-with-countries-capitals-national-borders-G3N30M.jpg)
How Russia is splitting the EU
Putin is turning the tables on sanctions (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-russia-is-splitting-the-eu)
Quote from: John Smith
The larger issue is the rouble demand itself and how it circumvents sanctions...
Uniper, Germany's largest gas buyer, said recently that it thought the scheme was compliant...
Russia uses hydrocarbons as a weapon, and some duplicitous sorts determine how to keep on using Russian hydrocarbons anyway.
Per the article, Finland is 99% reliant on Russian gas, so Ms Marin had best secure alternative energy sources before joining NATO. She knows that, of course. LNG is not the answer in 2022-23.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 27, 2022, 07:11:42 AMFinland's energy sources are not your concern Todd.
Of course they are. Finland wants to join NATO. That means Finland will rely on American security guarantees.
"Some People More Equal Than Others": WHO Chief On Ukraine War Coverage
The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanon Ghebreyesus, has criticised the coverage of the war in Ukraine, calling it racist. (https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/some-people-more-equal-than-others-who-chief-on-ukraine-war-coverage-2888818)
Quote from: 71 dB on April 27, 2022, 07:37:00 AM
By that that logic the energy sources of almost 3 dozen countries are your concern.
That is sort of correct. Actually, the number is higher than that since Europe is not the center of the world and the US also offers security guarantees to other non-European countries.
Quote from: Que on April 25, 2022, 11:28:25 PM
if this world was run by women instead of elderly sociopathic men, we probably wouldn't be in this mess...
I disagree. Ever since recorded history there has been ample documentation that women can be as ruthless, bloodthirsty and hawkish leaders as any man. ;D
Quote from: 71 dB on April 27, 2022, 07:53:56 AMWhat the fuck are we Finns supposed to do?
Ideally, Finns should fend for themselves, or form alliances as necessary with any country in the world other than the US.
Quote from: Florestan on April 27, 2022, 07:56:13 AMEver since recorded history there has been ample documentation that women can be as ruthless, bloodthirsty and hawkish leaders as any man.
Facts are stubborn things.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 08:02:35 AM
Ideally
This word has no place in any meaningful discussion about politics and history.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 27, 2022, 07:53:56 AM
Well, I'm sorry I live in a country next to Russia and you have to live in a country offering security guarantees to dozens of countries over the World. Life isn't perfect... :P
I guess in a perfect world only the USA existed...
What the fuck are we Finns supposed to do? We have the cards we have and we try to play the best we can using them.
I am so TIRED of the SHIT!!! Covid, Ukraine, Russia, Nato AND Your FCKING american exceptionalism!! Why is all of this so Shitty?
YHM
Quote from: 71 dB on April 27, 2022, 08:19:18 AM
Damn I forgot to ignore him. :P
And he takes advantage of you.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 27, 2022, 08:04:30 AMWhat do you think we have been doing all these years? It has been enough, but Russian attack to Ukraine changed everything. That is why Finland and Sweden suddenly want to join Nato.
Yes, I understand the post-war foreign policy of Finland and the proximate cause of the policy shift.
Extending American security guarantees to Finland is unacceptable. Discontent among some NATO members may still prevent it.
Smarkets put a 37% chance of Sweden and Finland joining NATO in 2022 back in March, but I don't subscribe to the site or any other gambling site, so I do not the current estimated probability. It is too high, whatever it is.
Quote from: Florestan on April 27, 2022, 08:06:52 AMThis word has no place in any meaningful discussion about politics and history.
Not true. It sounds/reads nice. It's definitely nicer than discussing spheres of influence and accepting that some nations may end up being absorbed into the Russian orbit, which is an acceptable outcome.
Inability to Quickly Replace Stingers and Javelins for Ukraine Highlights Industrial Base Problems (https://www.airforcemag.com/inability-to-quickly-replace-stinger-and-javelins-for-ukraine-highlights-industrial-base-problems/)
Uncle Sam had best throw more money at struggling defense contractors.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 08:02:35 AM
Finns should
Finland is a sovereign nation, they do whatever they freely choose to do . Neither Putin nor anyone else has any business telling them what they should or should not do.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 08:24:34 AM
some nations may end up being absorbed into the Russian orbit, which is an acceptable outcome.
It might be acceptable for you,
Todd, but you are not the center of the world. And I haste to add, God be praised you are not in charge of the USA foreign policy either.
Quote from: Florestan on April 27, 2022, 08:29:57 AMFinland is a sovereign nation, they do whatever they freely choose to do . Neither Putin nor anyone else has any business telling them what they should or should not do.
Finland is a small country bordering a large, currently hostile country. Smaller countries must take into account the actions and pronouncements of larger, more powerful countries, especially those that share borders. Other countries can be ignored. For instance, Finnish policy makers are weighing actions and pronouncements made by Russia and the US. I suspect they are not considering the official policy position of Peru. Not all countries are equal. The idea that a small country can "freely" choose to pursue security arrangements is suspect.
Quote from: Florestan on April 27, 2022, 08:29:57 AMIt might be acceptable for you, Todd, but you are not the center of the world. And I hadsten to add, God be praised you are not in charge of the USA foreign policy either.
A bizarrely personalized response.
From a national security position, there is no threat to the US if, say, the Baltics were controlled by Russia. Each individual nation state should be assessed on its own, taking into consideration an array of factors. Continual expansion of a security framework that places a lopsided, undue, and ultimately unacceptable burden on the US is a very bad idea.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 08:39:58 AM
Finland is a small country bordering a large, currently hostile country. Smaller countries must take into account the actions and pronouncements of larger, more powerful countries, especially those that share borders. Other countries can be ignored. For instance, Finnish policy makers are weighing actions and pronouncements made by Russia and the US. I suspect they are not considering the official policy position of Peru. Not all countries are equal. The idea that a small country can "freely" choose to pursue security arrangements is suspect.
A bizarrely personalized response.
From a national security position, there is no threat to the US if, say, the Baltics were controlled by Russia. Each individual nation state should be assessed on its own, taking into consideration an array of factors. Continual expansion of a security framework that places a lopsided, undue, and ultimately unacceptable burden on the US is a very bad idea.
What you're basically suggesting is that
ideally USA, Russia and China are entitled to carve up the whole world into corresponding spheres of influence and all other nations should just shut the fucking up and accept whatever arrangement those three countries tacitly or explicitly agree upon.
Foreign Minister of Spain, José Manuel Albares, says there is a place in Nato for Finland as a stable democratic country if Finland wants to join.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on April 27, 2022, 08:23:47 AM
And he takes advantage of you.
Well, I end that by ignoring him. He can go and find someone else to bully if he has nothing better to do.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 08:39:58 AM
From a national security position, there is no threat to the US if, say, the Baltics were controlled by Russia. Each individual nation state should be assessed on its own, taking into consideration an array of factors. Continual expansion of a security framework that places a lopsided, undue, and ultimately unacceptable burden on the US is a very bad idea.
What exactly do you mean by "from a national security position"? How many steps ahead are you thinking? Maybe Russian control over the Baltics has no IMMEDIATE national security consequences for the US, but it is not difficult to imagine scenarios down the line that would threaten the national security of Europe and its economy, and therefore of the US. Say Russia later decides to reabsorb Poland or even split off East Germany back into its sphere of control. Is this another "acceptable outcome"?
Even were it not for considerations like these, the fact that a competent and experienced SecDef has apparently endorsed the Biden Administration's now-stated goal of weakening Russia's ability to bully its neighbors as it has Ukraine, would make me think twice before making such sweeping pronouncements as in your post.
Quote from: krummholz on April 27, 2022, 09:26:39 AM
it is not difficult to imagine scenarios down the line that would threaten the national security of Europe and its economy, and therefore of the US.
Why, just a few posts above Todd stated that the USA may/will have to go at war with Europe...
Quote from: Florestan on April 27, 2022, 08:52:08 AM
What you're basically suggesting is that ideally USA, Russia and China are entitled to carve up the whole world into corresponding spheres of influence and all other nations should just shut the fucking up and accept whatever arrangement those three countries tacitly or explicitly agree upon.
That is incomplete and inaccurate. First, to the incomplete bit. At the very least, India will be joining the ranks of the great powers in the next two to three decades, as it surpasses the remaining three European countries that still have a larger GDP than it, and with that ever-growing GDP comes the capacity to build military power and then project it. In exchange for acting as a regional counterweight to China, it will almost certainly demand, or rather assert, greater influence in the sub-continent. This poses serious concerns and risks. From my perspective, I would say that a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan is more likely than the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This situation will have to be dealt with carefully.
As to the inaccurate bit, the three current and relatively soon to be four great powers are not entitled to carve up the world, but they will anyway. That is not new. That is just what happens. If one wants to consider idealism, then the various attempts at establishing effective supranational organizations that can restrain the actions of all countries would be the
ideal approach. Powerful states throughout history have not willingly ceded power and sovereignty, and it is difficult to see that happening this century.
Quote from: krummholz on April 27, 2022, 09:26:39 AMMaybe Russian control over the Baltics has no IMMEDIATE national security consequences for the US, but it is not difficult to imagine scenarios down the line that would threaten the national security of Europe and its economy, and therefore of the US.
Russia and then the Soviet Union controlled the Baltics for most of US history. It had no impact on US national security the entire time. It is no different now. Indeed, it is now quite common to see netizens proclaim that Russia is weak and incompetent, and by extension, not to be feared. Using triumphalist logic, the Baltics do not need US protection. Whether triumphalists are right or not - I happen to think they are wrong - the geography of the Baltics does not offer significant strategic advantages for Russia in terms of threatening more important parts of Europe, let alone the US. The US and Royal Navies in tandem, no doubt joined by other navies, could protect northern sea lanes and the US presence in Germany acts as bulwark against vast westward expansion.
Quote from: krummholz on April 27, 2022, 09:26:39 AMSay Russia later decides to reabsorb Poland or even split off East Germany back into its sphere of control. Is this another "acceptable outcome"?
Loss of Polish independence would be lamentable, but it would be acceptable in that the US should not engage in nuclear war or full-scale conventional war to preserve its independence. Unfortunately, since Poland has joined NATO, it increases the chances of an unnecessary and valueless war, though not by a lot. At least today.
Any attempt to forcibly carve up Germany would likely result in WWIII. That is an actual red line, at least under current security arrangements. Were the German people to decide to cleave off the east and hand it off to Russia, that would be an entirely acceptable outcome. I see that as a very unlikely event.
Quote from: krummholz on April 27, 2022, 09:26:39 AMEven were it not for considerations like these, the fact that a competent and experienced SecDef has apparently endorsed the Biden Administration's now-stated goal of weakening Russia's ability to bully its neighbors as it has Ukraine, would make me think twice before making such sweeping pronouncements as in your post.
Yes, I referred to the new policy previously. In practical terms, this means providing more weapons to Ukraine and prolonging war. Ukraine is now a killing field under US policy and thousands more, and perhaps tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians will die to achieve a US national security goal. A less bloodthirsty policy would be preferable.
But of course a key question here is how is Ukraine important to US national security? Again, for most of US history, Ukraine was not a sovereign country and US national security was not imperiled. Ukraine is not worth going to war over. Even Biden, after his subordinates announced the new killing field policy, stated that he was open to Ukrainian neutrality.
Almost all discussions revolve around maintaining existing security arrangements and even expanding them. The problem from an American perspective is that it continues to overextend the US. Alternatives are available. If countering Russian power is the primary concern, then Germany alone has sufficient capabilities to build a conventional military force capable of defending Europe. If it partners with France, the partnership could "easily" defend the continent. The US can extend its nuclear deterrence, reduce its military presence on the continent, and act as a power capable of preventing Russian aggression against key allies on an ad hoc but also omnipresent basis. Other options are possible as well.
Quote from: Florestan on April 27, 2022, 09:53:55 AMWhy, just a few posts above Todd stated that the USA may/will have to go at war with Europe...
That is correct, if Europe becomes effectively unified. I see that as a low probability outcome.
Since Russia is losing capacity to pump, pipe and ship oil and gas, it's a bonus that Putin cuts off gas to Poland and Bulgaria now. Europe will learn not to rely on something they won't have.
If Putin wants to prove the world doesn't need Russia, then I say he's right. Other arrangements will be made by necessity, and once made Europe won't unmake them until Putin is gone and maybe not ever.
Yes, the best sanction of all will be an own goal by Putin. If only he would refuse to sell to Germany I would nominate him for a Nobel Prize.
Quote from: drogulus on April 27, 2022, 07:57:20 PM
Since Russia is losing capacity to pump, pipe and ship oil and gas, it's a bonus that Putin cuts off gas to Poland and Bulgaria now. Europe will learn not to rely on something they won't have.
If Putin wants to prove the world doesn't need Russia, then I say he's right. Other arrangements will be made by necessity, and once made Europe won't unmake them until Putin is gone and maybe not ever.
Yes, the best sanction of all will be an own goal by Putin. If only he would refuse to sell to Germany I would nominate him for a Nobel Prize.
I'm sure Putin finds a way to sell energy to less democratic countries such as China, India and Brazil who don't care much about war in Europe. Meanwhile Europe has to buy energy elsewhere whoever can sell it and energy prices will go up. Inflation goes up. Food prices go up. People can't afford it and there will be horrible civil unrest. Everything goes to hell. That is why I am so depressed. Mankind fucks up everything! So stupid!
From the Gray Lady:
Fears Are Mounting That Ukraine War Will Spill Across Borders (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/27/us/politics/ukraine-war-expansion.html)
Quote from: David E. Sanger and Steven Erlanger"Are we headed for a wider war or is this just a gaffe by Austin?" asked François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst.
"There is a widening consensus about supplying Ukraine howitzers and more complex weapons systems, and everyone is now doing that," Mr. Heisbourg noted.
"But it's another thing to pivot the war aim from Ukraine to Russia. I don't believe there's any consensus on that." Weakening Russia's military capacity "is a good thing to do," Mr. Heisbourg said, "but it's a means to an end, not an end in itself"...
There is a concern in Berlin that "we shouldn't push Putin too hard against the wall," Mr. Speck said, "so that he may become desperate and do something truly irresponsible."
Looks like US tough talk may not be universally popular in Europe.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 10:49:32 AM
Russia and then the Soviet Union controlled the Baltics for most of US history. It had no impact on US national security the entire time. It is no different now. Indeed, it is now quite common to see netizens proclaim that Russia is weak and incompetent, and by extension, not to be feared. Using triumphalist logic, the Baltics do not need US protection. Whether triumphalists are right or not - I happen to think they are wrong - the geography of the Baltics does not offer significant strategic advantages for Russia in terms of threatening more important parts of Europe, let alone the US.
Except that if they took the Baltics without significant cost, it might embolden them to proceed further. And no, things are never exactly the same, 30 years and more later. The economies of the US and Europe are more tightly coupled now, and Europe is economically stronger, despite continued dependence on Russia for energy. And then there is the fact of NATO and that most EU countries are members.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 10:49:32 AM
Loss of Polish independence would be lamentable, but it would be acceptable in that the US should not engage in nuclear war or full-scale conventional war to preserve its independence. Unfortunately, since Poland has joined NATO, it increases the chances of an unnecessary and valueless war, though not by a lot. At least today.
Any attempt to forcibly carve up Germany would likely result in WWIII. That is an actual red line, at least under current security arrangements.
Under current security arrangements (specifically Article 5 of the NATO charter), invading the Baltics would also be crossing a red line. So would invading Poland. I tend to think that WWIII would not break out over the Baltics, but would be far likelier to over Poland, and that would probably happen before they tried to carve up Germany again.
It's not clear to me whether you are factoring in "current security arrangements" in your pronouncements about US national security interests. IMO we must not ignore those arrangements as the US is bound by treaty and our reputation as a reliable ally depends on our honouring them. And I'd consider preventing WWIII a vital US national security interest. The strongest argument for doing everything we reasonably can to support Ukraine is that if Putin cannot be deterred or prevented from trying to expand his borders by force, then WWIII becomes ever more likely.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 10:49:32 AM
But of course a key question here is how is Ukraine important to US national security? Again, for most of US history, Ukraine was not a sovereign country and US national security was not imperiled. Ukraine is not worth going to war over. Even Biden, after his subordinates announced the new killing field policy, stated that he was open to Ukrainian neutrality.
Sentence by sentence:
1. Wrong question. The right question is how does destabilization of Ukraine effect US national security, not what does Ukraine actively contribute to national security.
2. Another farcical, meaningless invocation of irrelevant historical data.
3. It's not about Ukraine. (Duh!) It's about Russia.
4. The kind of cynical deflection one expects from Trumpists. The killing field policy is Putin's, not Biden's. You don't seem to be able to tell an announcement made for political/propaganda goals from a serious policy statement.
Quote from: Todd on April 27, 2022, 08:39:58 AMFrom a national security position, there is no threat to the US if, say, the Baltics were controlled by Russia. Each individual nation state should be assessed on its own, taking into consideration an array of factors. Continual expansion of a security framework that places a lopsided, undue, and ultimately unacceptable burden on the US is a very bad idea.
You do not see any advantage for the U.S. to exist in a peaceful world in which the various nations determine their own fate and prosper? No disadvantage in smaller state being vacuumed up by totalitarian empires that do not acknowledge basic human rights and freedoms?
Quote from: krummholz on April 28, 2022, 06:09:33 AMThe economies of the US and Europe are more tightly coupled now
This is very easy to overstate. US trade relationships are weighted more heavily toward North America and East Asian countries, though Europe as a whole of course accounts for significant trade. Eastern European countries individually or considered together do not.
Quote from: krummholz on April 28, 2022, 06:09:33 AM...Europe is economically stronger
Which is the strongest argument for Europe providing for its own defense with only limited American involvement. Europe is the richest region of the world.
Quote from: krummholz on April 28, 2022, 06:09:33 AMUnder current security arrangements (specifically Article 5 of the NATO charter), invading the Baltics would also be crossing a red line. So would invading Poland.
This is notional. Some people shuddered when Trump called into question the sanctity of Article 5. The sitting President would have to decide whether to actually deploy US military power to protect various countries from attack. It is not entirely certain that an assault by a great power on a smaller NATO member would lead to that result, despite the existence of Article 5. The US is theoretically bound to act, but what if it does not? The US has broken treaties before, thus far with no dire consequences.
So far, of course, the only time Article 5 has been invoked was after 9/11, when the global hegemon retaliated against Afghanistan. It is reasonable to think that the US could have unilaterally "defeated" the Taliban in Afghanistan (only temporarily) without raising the possibility of a much wider war. Invoking Article 5 added an air of legitimacy to one of the most lopsided invasions in the post-war era, and in history, really. Retaliating against a Russian invasion of, say, Lithuania would/could come with extraordinarily higher costs. The entire security guarantee of NATO ultimately rests on mutually assured destruction. The ultimate question is what country or countries are worth that outcome.
Quote from: krummholz on April 28, 2022, 06:09:33 AMIt's not clear to me whether you are factoring in "current security arrangements" in your pronouncements about US national security interests.
I am.
Quote from: krummholz on April 28, 2022, 06:09:33 AMThe strongest argument for doing everything we reasonably can to support Ukraine is that if Putin cannot be deterred or prevented from trying to expand his borders by force, then WWIII becomes ever more likely.
I disagree. No one anywhere has adequately described what is at stake for the US in Ukraine. The US is under no treaty obligation to defend Ukraine against Russia. There are no significant economic interests at stake, nor will there be for years or decades to come,
if ever. Any potential benefits that may arise by having additional military installations even closer to Russia only increase the probability of a pointless war.
The idea that Russia will continually attempt to expand its borders is questionable at the very least. And what if it does? What if Russia does attempt to absorb the Baltics, or even Poland, which seems unlikely under any scenario? Avoiding WWIII, assuming it would start in Europe, can be accomplished fairly easily. Dissolve NATO, or scale it back to 1991 boundaries.
The US has put itself in a position, by expanding NATO, that it is at least theoretically obligated to destroy humanity if Russia acts particularly badly. (The idea that the US acted innocently while only passively acceding to the admission of Eastern European countries that expressed interest in joining NATO is absurd on its face.) Ultimately, any war the US engages in where it is not directly attacked is a war of choice. The US does not need to engage in another full-scale war over Europe. The entire post-war system will eventually fail and disappear. The US should strive to avoid war while transitioning to a replacement. The current system has outlived its usefulness and increases the probability of large-scale war.
I recognize that President Biden disagrees – he just asked for another $33 billion in aid for Ukraine and Congress will rubber stamp it. So we inch closer to war and the US entrenches itself ever more in an area of secondary or even tertiary importance.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on April 28, 2022, 07:08:40 AMYou do not see any advantage for the U.S. to exist in a peaceful world in which the various nations determine their own fate and prosper?
Such a world has never existed and will never exist. It would be nice, though.
Quote from: BasilValentine on April 28, 2022, 07:08:06 AMThe killing field policy is Putin's, not Biden's.
It was announced publicly by Secretary of Defense Austin.
Quote from: Todd on April 28, 2022, 07:28:28 AM
Such a world has never existed and will never exist. It would be nice, though.
No, a perfect world has not existed. There have been periods of time when the ideal of a free and prosperous world have been better and worse realized. It is worth the effort to try to make the world more peaceful and prosperous.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on April 28, 2022, 08:03:28 AMIt is worth the effort to try to make the world more peaceful and prosperous.
That depends on the body count needed to get there.
I note Rachel Maddow is spot on about how Putin is training the world to do without Russian oil and gas. I beat her by a few hours, though.
Quote from: drogulus on April 27, 2022, 07:57:20 PM
Since Russia is losing capacity to pump, pipe and ship oil and gas, it's a bonus that Putin cuts off gas to Poland and Bulgaria now. Europe will learn not to rely on something they won't have.
If Putin wants to prove the world doesn't need Russia, then I say he's right. Other arrangements will be made by necessity, and once made Europe won't unmake them until Putin is gone and maybe not ever.
Yes, the best sanction of all will be an own goal by Putin. If only he would refuse to sell to Germany I would nominate him for a Nobel Prize.
https://www.youtube.com/v/Pr66zQyqSG0&t=29s
Therefore, it's only fair that I be awarded the Daniel Yergin "Prize" Prize. Yergin btw is predicting the decline of Russian oil and gas in similar fashion. Why wouldn't he? He's smart.
The war is accelerating the downward spiral of Russia as an economic entity. In the end China and India will be buying Russian oil at a discount. But it's not just a problem of what they will buy, it's a problem of what Russia can bring to market through a deteriorating pipeline network. China is fed by a separate network of pipes unconnected from the European system. The capacity is not great and will decline.
Quote from: Todd on April 28, 2022, 07:24:24 AM
This is very easy to overstate. US trade relationships are weighted more heavily toward North America and East Asian countries, though Europe as a whole of course accounts for significant trade. Eastern European countries individually or considered together do not.
And it is Europe as a whole that I was referring to, not eastern European countries considered even on a regional basis.
Quote from: Todd on April 28, 2022, 07:24:24 AM
This is notional. Some people shuddered when Trump called into question the sanctity of Article 5. The sitting President would have to decide whether to actually deploy US military power to protect various countries from attack. It is not entirely certain that an assault by a great power on a smaller NATO member would lead to that result, despite the existence of Article 5. The US is theoretically bound to act, but what if it does not? The US has broken treaties before, thus far with no dire consequences.
I didn't say it was certain, just that the red line exists. Of course it would be up to the sitting President to decide whether to deploy US military power in any situation. He is the CiC of the US Armed Forces. And yes, of course the US has abrogated agreements (even beyond signed treaties) without obvious dire consequences, but arguably those abrogations have led to the decline worldwide in respect for the US among other nations, including possibly Russia. It is entirely possible that the perception that the US would be unwilling to act was a factor in Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. The perception that a major power is in decline is not without consequences. You may believe that those consequences have no national security ramifications for the US, but others (and I) disagree.
Quote from: Todd on April 28, 2022, 07:24:24 AM
I am.
I think I was unclear. By "factor in current security arrangements" I was asking whether you considered those arrangements a fait accompli, and were projecting from those arrangements as a given. Clearly you are not, you are arguing for their dissolution, as you say explicitly below.
QuoteI disagree. No one anywhere has adequately described what is at stake for the US in Ukraine. The US is under no treaty obligation to defend Ukraine against Russia. There are no significant economic interests at stake, nor will there be for years or decades to come, if ever.
Yes, all of that is a given. And it is irrelevant to the argument. It is not Ukraine which is important to US national security, it is Europe as a whole as a collection of independent, at least somewhat democratic nation states.
Quote from: Todd on April 28, 2022, 07:24:24 AM
The idea that Russia will continually attempt to expand its borders is questionable at the very least. And what if it does? What if Russia does attempt to absorb the Baltics, or even Poland, which seems unlikely under any scenario? Avoiding WWIII, assuming it would start in Europe, can be accomplished fairly easily. Dissolve NATO, or scale it back to 1991 boundaries.
And here you seem to be channeling Neville Chamberlain. This policy is called "appeasement". It didn't work to keep us from world war in the 1930s, what reason do you have to believe it will work now?
Quote from: krummholz on April 28, 2022, 09:50:52 AMThe perception that a major power is in decline is not without consequences. You may believe that those consequences have no national security ramifications for the US, but others (and I) disagree.
I have been clear for years that the US is in relative decline. That most certainly has national security implications for the US. The overriding objectives of the US over the next several decades should be the avoidance of great power war, which should always be the primary objective, and a restructuring of US relationships with other nation states and international organizations to peacefully accommodate the rise of China, and then probably around the last quarter of the century, India. The US must alter and reduce its outdated emphasis on Europe.
The line about a decline in respect in the rest of the world appears to be standard Eurocentrism (meaning here that respect for the US has declined very much, and very importantly, in Europe), and if perhaps various countries do respect the US less, that is an acceptable outcome. For instance, at one point, the UK was the leading power in the world, and now it is not, and the level of respect afforded the country now varies widely, from immense respect to disdain. That all has very little to no impact on the well-being of UK residents. Whatever benefit supposedly accrues to residents of the US because of what is termed international respect needs to be defined. Wounded national pride means basically nothing.
Quote from: krummholz on April 28, 2022, 09:50:52 AMYes, all of that is a given. And it is irrelevant to the argument. It is not Ukraine which is important to US national security, it is Europe as a whole as a collection of independent, at least somewhat democratic nation states.
Ukraine is very important to US national security now, based on actual policy.
One of the many problems with Europe is that not all European countries are equally important to the US. They just aren't. The fundamental failure of NATO expansion is that it ends up treating all members equally, again notionally - eg, Latvia is equal to France. That's preposterous. That is one of the reasons why it would be far preferable for the US to alter (reduce) NATO's commitments, or abandon them altogether, and then prevent effective unification of the continent politically and militarily. The last will fortunately be aided by mistrust among and between Europeans. The US will not be able to commit the current level of resources to Europe forever, and it should start adopting policies that reflect that reality sooner rather than later. At some point, it will be forced to make changes.
Quote from: krummholz on April 28, 2022, 09:50:52 AMAnd here you seem to be channeling Neville Chamberlain. This policy is called "appeasement". It didn't work to keep us from world war in the 1930s, what reason do you have to believe it will work now?
Godwin's Law is inescapable.
Here's a fact. Russian tanks have an autoloader which requires that ammunition is not in a separate compartment like in other designs. This allows the Russians to use a crew of 3 instead of 4. Having an extra crew member means a larger, more expensive vehicle. Training and maintaining a larger tank crew is more expensive, too.
Have you seen pictures of destroyed Russian tanks with their turrets missing?
(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/c_fill,g_auto,w_1200,h_675,ar_16:9/https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.cnn.com%2Fcnnnext%2Fdam%2Fassets%2F220420210714-04-destroyed-russian-tank-file-restricted-041522.jpg)
It's called "jack in the box".
Today's Russian missile attack on Kyiv while the UN general secretary is in town, the day after he visited Putin in Moscow, is going to cause a lot of protests. At least one of the missiles, allegedly targeting an arms factory, struck a residential block. The ruthlessness, described by some as increasingly desperate, is expected to continue and likely escalate, until there's some sort of turning point. Stoltenberg said today that NATO is prepared for a year-long conflict, including in the increased support for Ukraine.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 28, 2022, 11:08:12 AMStoltenberg said today that NATO is prepared for a year-long conflict, including in the increased support for Ukraine.
We have always been at war with Russia.
Bring back slavery. It existed for a large part of US history.
Oh and get rid of this new-fangled thing of women voting. We got through well over half of US history without it.
Some fool talked about progress over the course of history, but Todd knows better.
Of course, for most of US history Estonia was probably weeks or even months of travel away, but the invention of regular air travel has rather changed how the world connects. Why, these days it's perfectly possible for Todd to leave messages for people in Europe that they can read almost immediately, and for some Australian to butt in, but the internet is not relevant because it didn't exist for most of US history.
Perhaps we all long for the days when Todd would hear about distant wars via the newspaper weeks after the event, and could chat about how it had no impact on his part of the world only with his neighbours who shared that part of the world. Instead of broadcasting his disinterest globally.
Putin is an agent of Lloyd Austin and the Biden crime family. The mainstream media won't tell you this.
Quote from: drogulus on April 28, 2022, 03:09:53 PM
Putin is an agent of Lloyd Austin and the Biden crime family. The mainstream media won't tell you this.
I don't even know who Lloyd Austin is...
The list of things the mainstream media won't tell me is very long. I mean, it's obvious that Beethoven was a Sontaran but does this ever get reported? No!
Quote from: Madiel on April 28, 2022, 03:19:06 PM
I don't even know who Lloyd Austin is...
The list of things the mainstream media won't tell me is very long. I mean, it's obvious that Beethoven was a Sontaran but does this ever get reported? No!
Lloyd Austin is the US Secretary of Defense.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on April 28, 2022, 03:33:30 PM
Lloyd Austin is the US Secretary of Defense.
Why do you have to spoil the magic?
Anyway, I think this is what he looks like when he's not in disguise.
(https://www.looper.com/img/gallery/the-untold-truth-of-mars-attacks/l-intro-1632752169.jpg)
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on April 28, 2022, 03:33:30 PM
Lloyd Austin is the US Secretary of Defense.
I thank you for saving me from a visit to Google.
More analysts now believing that, given the slow Russian advances, the 9th of May will mean Putin escalating and declare general mobilization, in stead of downscaling, cf. also the tone in Russian media.
Missed by many commentators, but the false flag incidents in Transdnistr-Moldova coincide with the country taking recent steps to join the EU and NATO. A declared mobilization (or a Russian invasion) in Transdnistr would complicate matters, and perhaps facilitate Russian advances towards Odessa a bit. Whereas many believe that Romania would somehow try to support Moldova militarily, if Russia invaded core Moldova.
200 T72 tanks arrived from Poland to Ukraine this morning - just a fragment of the massive deliveries from the West that are now coming. Russia is thought to gradually run short of material generally.
Expert Mark Galeotti's new text about nuclear war: quite predictably, given his generally middle-of-the-road views, he says it's 'unlikely', but also 'less unthinkable' than before.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 29, 2022, 01:09:46 AM
More analysts now believing that, given the slow Russian advances, the 9th of May will mean Putin escalating and declare general mobilization, in stead of downscaling. cf. also the tone in Russian media.
Missed by many commentators, but the false flag incidents in Transdnistr-Moldova coincide with the country taking recent steps to join the EU and NATO. A declared mobilization (or a Russian invasion) in Transdnistr would complicate matters, and perhaps facilitate Russian advances towards Odessa a bit. Whereas many believe that Romania would somehow try to support Moldova militarily, if Russia invaded core Moldova.
Romania would do nothing more and nothing less than what would be collectively decided within NATO.
Btw, the Russian state TV commentators went delirious yesterday stating that nuclear war is unavoidable and it's no big deal because eventually we will all die anyway, the difference being that Russians will go to Heaven and their enemies to Hell. Also,
Pravda featured an article stating that Romania and Poland are prime candidates for being hit by Kalibr missiles and that they (R and P, that is) are actually asking for it.
I wasn't aware that Moldova had applied for EU membership. Georgia as well.
Quote from: MusicTurner on April 29, 2022, 01:09:46 AM
More analysts now believing that, given the slow Russian advances, the 9th of May will mean Putin escalating and declare general mobilization, in stead of downscaling. cf. also the tone in Russian media.
[...]
Russia is thought to gradually run short of material generally.
It seems Russia is getting desperate: running out of troops, material and money...
I've read estimations that Russia has depleted 70% of its missile stocks.
In the Donbas region seperatists have raised the age for mandatory military serviece from 55 to 65 years.
"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing." --- Oscar Wilde
Something must have made me post that here, but I wonder what... ;D
Quote from: Florestan on April 29, 2022, 01:58:37 AM
"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing." --- Oscar Wilde
Something must have made me post that here, but I wonder what... ;D
It's a good quote.
Quote from: Que on April 29, 2022, 01:52:54 AM
I've read estimations that Russia has depleted 70% of its missile stocks.
Does this mean we have seen 70 % of this war? I guess Russia can totally destroy its military capabilities momentarily in wars like this, because they know nobody will attack Russia. It would mean WWIII.
Quote from: 71 dB on April 29, 2022, 02:44:33 AM
Does this mean we have seen 70 % of this war? I guess Russia can totally destroy its military capabilities momentarily in wars like this, because they know nobody will attack Russia. It would mean WWIII.
De facto we are already in WW III. Just look at all the military equipment that the US and a lot of other countries are delivering in the Ukraine. We have to stop Poetin and his murderous hordes somewhere, it might as well be Ukraine. In fact it is the Ukraine.
Quote from: "Harry" on April 29, 2022, 03:07:10 AM
De facto we are already in WW III.
Good bye World then. How long time have we to live? A week? A month? A year?
Quote from: 71 dB on April 29, 2022, 03:22:55 AM
Good bye World then. How long time have we to live? A week? A month? A year?
As long as it is a conventional war, we will survive, tactical nucleair bombs we survive too, and in my view that will be it, for Poetin will destroy his beloved Russia too, if he uses the bigger ones.
So the world will in all probability survive Poju, no fear!
Quote from: 71 dB on April 29, 2022, 03:22:55 AM
Good bye World then. How long time have we to live? A week? A month? A year?
I think there's still plenty of time for your BIS order to reach you. :laugh:
Quote from: 71 dB on April 29, 2022, 03:22:55 AM
Good bye World then. How long time have we to live? A week? A month? A year?
Given that the World has already survived two World Wars, your conclusion does not follow from the premise.
Anyway it is NOT a world war yet, even by the Eurocentric notions of that concept. Fighting is occurring in exactly one country, apart from the occasional missile reaching Russia.
Quote from: "Harry" on April 29, 2022, 03:39:54 AM
As long as it is a conventional war, we will survive, tactical nucleair bombs we survive too, and in my view that will be it, for Poetin will destroy his beloved Russia too, if he uses the bigger ones.
So the world will in all probability survive Poju, no fear!
I don't see how we could survive tactical nuclear bombs. Russia has made the use of nukes less unthinkable. Russia has been already been destroyed by Russia itself. It is just that the people of Russia (well, most of them anyway) has been brainwashed to accept and even support the state of fairs. Netherlands is a Nato country. Finland is not, at least for several months. Netherlands isn't a neighbour of Russia with 1360 km long border. Finland is. That's why I have million times more to worry about than you Harry.
Quote from: Florestan on April 29, 2022, 03:40:59 AM
I think there's still plenty of time for your BIS order to reach you. :laugh:
It is a race for sure! Will it arrive before the end of the World? :P
I am so pissed of the situation: So much to worry about and I can't even get BIS CDs to enjoy to help my peace of mind! I DID NOT NEED THIS RIGHT NOW!!
Quote from: Madiel on April 29, 2022, 03:53:40 AM
Given that the World has already survived two World Wars, your conclusion does not follow from the premise.
Anyway it is NOT a world war yet, even by the Eurocentric notions of that concept. Fighting is occurring in exactly one country, apart from the occasional missile reaching Russia.
Yeah, but in WWI nuclear weapons didn't exist and in WWII "only" two them used and even when those bombs caused absolutely horrifying damage and death in Japan, nuclear weapons of today are much much more powerful + many countries have plenty them, not only the USA.
I'd say it is a "hot" war between Russia and Ukraine + a lukewarm war between Russia and the "free World." What I worry about is that this lukewarm war escalates into WWIII. Russia is not interested in de-escalation. Even without escalation this war de-stabilizes societies all over the World because of rising food and energy prices not to mention information war in (social) media, cyber strikes etc. These things are likely to create NEW conflicts all over the World. Enough conflicts and things escalate into WWIII. The future looks super-dark at the moment.
Quote from: Que on April 29, 2022, 01:52:54 AMI've read estimations that Russia has depleted 70% of its missile stocks.
That is the first part of an analysis by investigative journalist Christo Grozev. The second part is that Russia can produce more missiles independently. It would be intriguing to see assessments of intelligence agencies. Coming to any positive or hopeful conclusions based on this factoid is unwise.
Russia is smart to use Ukrainians to kill other Ukrainians, even if they are now past proper combat age. That is what the US is doing as well.
The Canadian howitzers are wondrous things, with GPS guided shells and very long range. If this is supposed to be an artillery battle they will be just the thing for counter-battery fire. Go Raytheon!
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/XM982_Excalibur_inert_%28cropped%29.jpg)
Everyone Is Starting to Admit Something Frightening About Ukraine
The conflict has become a proxy war between NATO and Russia, with more risks for everyone involved. (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/04/ukraine-nato-russia-proxy-war.html)
Things are still not going well for Putin:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRkaViFWUAAhKiR?format=jpg&name=small)
Ukrainian govt sources speak of "colossal" Russian losses, while admitting Ukranian losses have been "heavy".
Quote from: Todd on April 29, 2022, 05:29:59 AM
That is the first part of an analysis by investigative journalist Christo Grozev. The second part is that Russia can produce more missiles independently. It would be intriguing to see assessments of intelligence agencies. Coming to any positive or hopeful conclusions based on this factoid is unwise.
Bellingcat is rather reliable source. Anyway, we'll know pretty soon whether Russia will run out of misilles.
As to your 2nd comment. Firstly, this notion of "independent production" is contested by reported reliance on the import of crucial high tech parts, now impossible because of western sanctions. Secondly, the production of precision guided misilles is a complicated and laborious process. It's not like you can produce these "on the go". Both sides have the same problem: they need military hardware
now, not in 6 months.
QuoteRussia is smart to use Ukrainians to kill other Ukrainians, even if they are now past proper combat age. That is what the US is doing as well.
No comment... ::)
Quote from: Que on April 30, 2022, 12:17:58 AM
Bellingcat is rather reliable source. Anyway, we'll know pretty soon whether Russia will run out of misilles.
As to your 2nd comment. Firstly, this notion of "independent production" is contested by reported reliance on the import of crucial high tech parts, now impossible because of western sanctions. Secondly, the production of precision guided misilles is a complicated and laborious process. It's not like you can produce these "on the go". Both sides have the same problem: they need military hardware now, not in 6 months
There is only one source for what you originally posted, and that source states that Russia can produce the missiles independently. Best to not cherry pick one of two main components of a story. That can give way to wishful thinking.
Todd, here's a question for you, if I may:
Are you of the opinion that, if in 1991 NATO decided to dissolve or never to accept any new member, Russia would have developed internally along democratic, liberal lines and its foreign policy would have been, if not peaceful, then much less aggressive?
If you choose to answer, thank you. If you choose not to answer, no problem.
Quote from: Florestan on April 30, 2022, 05:54:27 AMAre you of the opinion that, if in 1991 NATO decided to dissolve or never to accept any new member, Russia would have developed internally along democratic, liberal lines and its foreign policy would have been, if not peaceful, then much less aggressive?
This question is detached from reality.
Quote from: Todd on April 30, 2022, 05:56:21 AM
This question is detached from reality.
As I said, no problem.
Quote from: Todd on April 30, 2022, 05:56:21 AM
This question is detached from reality.
True, but it would be interesting to hear what those who are unhappy with the decisions which created the current reality think the situation would be now if they had their way 30 years ago. 🤔
🤠😎
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 30, 2022, 06:06:33 AM
True, but it would be interesting to hear what those who are unhappy with the decisions which created the current reality think the situation would be now if they had their way 30 years ago. 🤔
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I think Britain and Germany should have agreed to carve the world up between them before 1914. Russia would now be part of the German Empire and America back in the British. ;)
Quote from: Florestan on April 30, 2022, 05:57:33 AM
As I said, no problem.
The main issue is with the first part of the question. It cannot be answered as asked.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 30, 2022, 06:11:54 AM
I think Britain and Germany should have agreed to carve the world up between them before 1914. Russia would now be part of the German Empire and America back in the British. ;)
The UK owed the US too much money at the end of the war to do that.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on April 30, 2022, 06:06:33 AM
it would be interesting to hear what those who are unhappy with the decisions which created the current reality think the situation would be now if they had their way 30 years ago.
That was precisely the gist of my question.
Quote from: Todd on April 30, 2022, 06:13:35 AM
The main issue is with the first part of the question. It cannot be answered as asked.
Ah, now I see what you mean. Well, English is not my native tongue so its grammar often gets the better of me. Here, I reformulate:
Had NATO
decided in 1991 to dissolve or never to accept any new member,
would Russia
have been developing internally along democratic, liberal lines and its foreign policy would have been, if not peaceful, then much less aggressive?
There, I hope this can be answered.
Quote from: Todd on April 30, 2022, 06:13:35 AM
The UK owed the US too much money at the end of the war to do that.
I said
before 1914.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 30, 2022, 08:56:26 AM
I said before 1914.
My bad. The UK was too dependent on the US via the House of Morgan at that point to do that. Also, at that point the US Navy was too large for the globe spanning Royal Navy to dispatch easily. And the Treaty of Washington meant that the US and UK were buddy-buddy by that point. Surely the British would not violate the letter or the spirit of a treaty . . .
Fair enough Todd, you know more about it than I. My feeling is primarily that it was a great shame for Britain and Germany to trash each other like that.
Quote from: steve ridgway on April 30, 2022, 09:17:20 AMMy feeling is primarily that it was a great shame for Britain and Germany to trash each other like that.
The great shame was the Treaty of Versailles. It took Americans to show Europeans how to deal with a defeated Germany.
Immediately after the German attack on Belgium, the German Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg called the treaty guaranteeing Belgium's neutrality 'a scrap of paper'.
Godwin's Law? Hardly. It was 1914, not the 1930s.
;D
Quote from: Todd on April 30, 2022, 09:31:29 AM
The great shame was the Treaty of Versailles.
Agreed.
QuoteIt took Americans to show Europeans how to deal with a defeated Germany.
Correction: it took Americans to show the French how to deal with a defeated Germany.
May I respectfully remind you that during WWI most European grievances were against Austria-Hungary and Russia rather than Germany,
European powers carving up the world between them... yes, that worked MARVELLOUSLY in Africa.
Quote from: Florestan on April 30, 2022, 09:42:44 AM
Correction: it took Americans to show the French how to deal with a defeated Germany.
Indeed.
Quote from: Madiel on April 30, 2022, 03:42:26 PM
European powers carving up the world between them... yes, that worked MARVELLOUSLY in Africa.
And even better in the Middle East...
Quote from: Florestan on April 30, 2022, 09:42:44 AMCorrection: it took Americans to show the French how to deal with a defeated Germany.
I was not referring to the Great War. After Europeans bungled the armistice so badly, Americans had to come in and reimage magnanimous-ish victory less than a generation later. We still live in
that world. It must now fade away, having outlived its usefulness.
Quote from: "Harry" on April 29, 2022, 03:39:54 AM
tactical nucleair bombs we survive too
That's doubtful, Harry. A tactical nuke is still a nuke, not a grenade. It can produce millions of deaths instantly and as many in the decades to come and it can turn large areas into waste lands in which nobody would be able to live for the rest of the foreseeable future. Imagine it dropped on Amsterdam, what do you think would happen to the whole Netherlands and how will you survive it?
Quote from: Florestan on May 02, 2022, 05:40:17 AM
That's doubtful, Harry. A tactical nuke is still a nuke, not a grenade. It can produce millions of deaths instantly and as many in the decades to come and it can turn large areas into waste lands in which nobody would be able to live for the rest of the foreseeable future. Imagine it dropped on Amsterdam, what do you think would happen to the whole Netherlands and how will you survive it?
You can simulate that if you want: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
In Amsterdam, the estimated death toll of a 0.3 kiloton surface blast is 4310, and injuries number 6550. I am not familiar with Russian tactical nuclear capabilities or yields, but the weapons are designed specifically to reduce the area of destruction and are primarily designed for battlefield use.
The reporter Hans Nichols stated last Friday on Washington Week that he had become unnerved by the loose talk surrounding nuclear weapons in official Washington circles. There have always been people who wanted nuclear combat toe-to-toe with the Ruskies.
(https://preview.redd.it/ts2ab8ai5gw81.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=ab56921b331d9c613fba0823008b4abcdacec9cb)
A forty year old cartoon has resurfaced. This time everyone has learned their lesson.
Quote from: Todd on May 02, 2022, 06:13:17 AM
You can simulate that if you want: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
In Amsterdam, the estimated death toll of a 0.3 kiloton surface blast is 4310, and injuries number 6550. I am not familiar with Russian tactical nuclear capabilities or yields, but the weapons are designed specifically to reduce the area of destruction and are primarily designed for battlefield use.
The only Russian option is Topol and it yields 755,720 deaths and 762,880 injuries.
QuoteThe reporter Hans Nichols stated last Friday on Washington Week that he had become unnerved by the loose talk surrounding nuclear weapons in official Washington circles. There have always been people who wanted nuclear combat toe-to-toe with the Ruskies.
You should hear the language used on Russian TV --- totally delirious. The latest example is threatening the UK with sinking them into the sea by use of a Poseidon thermonuclear submarine missile which would cause a 500-meter tsunami wave. Last week they said that a nuclear war is no big deal because eventually we will all die but Russians would go to Heaven and their enemies to Hell. I doubt anything even renotely similar has been said in Washington.
Quote from: Florestan on May 02, 2022, 06:24:28 AMI hope we'll never have to check the estimations against reality.
No sensible person wants to find out.
Quote from: Florestan on May 02, 2022, 06:24:28 AMLast week they said that a nuclear war is no big deal because eventually we will all die but Russians would go to Heaven and their enemies to Hell. I doubt anything even renotely similar has been said in Washington.
Certainly not publicly, and it is highly doubtful that such proclamations would be made in private, but one never knows. Mr Nichols' point was that there has been a demonstrable shift in tone among people who make important decisions.
Quote from: Florestan on May 02, 2022, 06:24:28 AMThe only Russian option is Topol and it yields 755,720 deaths and 762,880 injuries.
That is not a tactical nuclear weapon.
Plans from the Eastern Block discovered recently, and published in a study here just a couple of months ago, found one plan that meant an attack with 131 nuclear bombs just on tiny Denmark. Denmark has had a strategic importance due to controlling traffic to the Baltic Sea, etc. The bombing effect would equal about 900 bombs on Great Britain (and 50,000 on the surface of Russia itself). Obviously, it would mean total annihilation, and the nuclear polution and winter afterwards would take care of the rest, maybe a few people surviving say on places like St. Helena, the Falklands and Pitcairn Island, plus perhaps in some underground facilities.
The only other plan generally known to the public here contained an initial bomb on the historical town of Roskilde, 30 km away from Copenhagen, and then demanding complete surrender.
Most likely these plans are still existing, as regards the overall bombing effect and targets generally. As well as others; I guess computer powers have multiplied individual scenarios.
Quote from: Todd on May 02, 2022, 06:45:42 AM
That is not a tactical nuclear weapon.
Actually, I don't quite understand the difference between tactical and strategical nuke. Which is which?
Quote from: Florestan on May 02, 2022, 07:25:52 AM
Actually, I don't quite understand the difference between tactical and strategical nuke. Which is which?
Less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons are intended to devastate enemy targets in a specific area without causing widespread destruction and radioactive fallout. The United States began developing lightweight nuclear warheads in the 1950s.
Quote from: "Harry" on May 02, 2022, 07:29:52 AM
Less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons are intended to devastate enemy targets in a specific area without causing widespread destruction and radioactive fallout. The United States began developing lightweight nuclear warheads in the 1950s.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not tactical, then.
Quote from: Florestan on May 02, 2022, 07:35:21 AM
Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not tactical, then.
No. The distinction ends up being basically worthless. Tactical nuclear weapons have never been deployed. No one knows how a war would escalate were they used. The theory is that a war may not escalate if tactical nuclear weapons are used. People can rationalize anything.
The US still has and develops tactical nuclear weapons, but it has also come up with a different approach to warfare. US conventional weapons have destructive capacity sufficient to mimic the devastation wrought by nuclear weapons. People can rationalize anything.
Quote from: Todd on May 02, 2022, 08:20:52 AM
No. The distinction ends up being basically worthless. Tactical nuclear weapons have never been deployed. No one knows how a war would escalate were they used. The theory is that a war may not escalate if tactical nuclear weapons are used. People can rationalize anything.
The US still has and develops tactical nuclear weapons, but it has also come up with a different approach to warfare. US conventional weapons have destructive capacity sufficient to mimic the devastation wrought by nuclear weapons. People can rationalize anything.
Most Romanian commentators consider that the truly paranoid nuclear rhetoric of the Russians is just propaganda for internal consumption and that the top military commanders are rational enough not to allow the use of nukes even if Putin orders it (which they also say is unlikely). I do hope they are right.
Quote from: Florestan on May 02, 2022, 08:25:17 AMMost Romanian commentators consider that the truly paranoid nuclear rhetoric of the Russians is just propaganda for internal consumption and that the top military commanders are rational enough not to allow the use of nukes even if Putin orders it (which they also say is unlikely). I do hope they are right.
I still think a nuclear escalation is unlikely. It strikes me as the most intense form of saber rattling.
Here's something a bit bizarre, Noam Chomsky saying that Donald Trump is the one senior statesman who has a sensible plan for Ukraine. And Chomsky still thinks Trump may be the most dangerous man alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YeRX6ZYXH0
The nuclear bluff is not believed, not by Russian TV commentators and not by Western governments. Nothing would stop Russia from using a tactical nuclear weapon if it made sense to do so. What we see is an attempt at a nuclear bluff which is not turning out as badly. It just didn't work.
Russia would like to find a way out of this disaster before the US heavy weapons arrive at the front lines in large numbers. If Russia can be said to have a bargaining position, it will only worsen.
Perhaps the US and Russia should talk. Perhaps they are talking right now.
Quote from: Todd on May 02, 2022, 08:34:24 AM
Here's something a bit bizarre, Noam Chomsky saying that Donald Trump is the one senior statesman who has a sensible plan for Ukraine. And Chomsky still thinks Trump may be the most dangerous man alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YeRX6ZYXH0
Interesting, but I'm not sure how Chomsky sees that as a possible out at this point, since NATO has in fact expanded since Bush 41 made his similar proposal. Given that I don't see a contraction of NATO as a realistic possibility, I should think that ship has sailed.
Granted, I did not listen to the whole interview as it is quite long.
Quote from: krummholz on May 02, 2022, 08:59:28 AMInteresting, but I'm not sure how Chomsky sees that as a possible out at this point, since NATO has in fact expanded since Bush 41 made his similar proposal. Given that I don't see a contraction of NATO as a realistic possibility, I should think that ship has sailed.
The word being used is accommodation, which can take multiple forms. Ukrainian neutrality is one practical form of accommodation. Biden has said he supports it - if Ukraine asks for it. That may be able to be arranged. A cessation of weapons shipments is another. Discussions about future changes to the NATO charter is another. Basically, keep all the NATO members, but put in place a mechanism that recognizes some members are more equal than others in terms of invoking Article 5 and that thresholds for action differ. This of course could never be discussed in the current environment. Even longer-term options like shrinking or dissolving NATO will take either several very non-interventionist administrations in succession (which of course would be tarred as "isolationist"), and that seems highly unlikely, or the defeat of the US in a great power war, which is today a very remote possibility. The US will not maintain its current dominance forever, though, and risk of defeat, though not in terms of the US being conquered, will become more of a reality as time goes by. I would say in the 2030s/40s the global balance of power will have shifted enough to create conditions where US military supremacy does not offer the same guarantees all around the world that it does now. Economic dominance will also decline. The Second Iraq War marks the beginning of the end of (never really existent) US military unipolarity, and the Russo-Ukrainian war marks the beginning of the end of some of the policy tools of US economic warfare that were put into place in the wake of 9/11. The heavy-handed manner of implementation will also likely hasten, albeit in a very minor way, the end of dollar dominance more generally.
It is also noteworthy that Chomsky states in his interview that the Pentagon has ended up being a peace keeping element in this crisis.
Quote from: Todd on May 02, 2022, 09:31:12 AM
The word being used is accommodation, which can take multiple forms. Ukrainian neutrality is one practical form of accommodation. Biden has said he supports it - if Ukraine asks for it. That may be able to be arranged. A cessation of weapons shipments is another. Discussions about future changes to the NATO charter is another. Basically, keep all the NATO members, but put in place a mechanism that recognizes some members are more equal than others in terms of invoking Article 5 and that thresholds for action differ. This of course could never be discussed in the current environment. Even longer-term options like shrinking or dissolving NATO will take either several very non-interventionist administrations in succession (which of course would be tarred as "isolationist"), and that seems highly unlikely, or the defeat of the US in a great power war, which is today a very remote possibility.
The only one of those options that seems to be a realistic possibility, in light of what the parties themselves have said, is Ukrainian neutrality. I don't see weapons shipments stopping without a lasting cease fire at the very least, more likely complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. I don't think changes to the NATO charter along the lines described are going to happen anytime soon. Shrink or dissolve NATO? Won't happen except as the negotiated outcome of a major war in which NATO forces are soundly defeated.
The only feasible possibility is indeed Ulrainian neutrality, guaranteed by an international agreement / treaty, all others are not worth wasting time on. But let's not forget that such an agreement actually existed, guaranteeing Ukrainian territorial integrity --- until in 2014 Russia broke it and the other signatories did not enforce it, thus proving it was just a scrap of paper that nobody had taken seriously from the beginning. (The big irony is that Ukraine had been persuaded to give up their nukes in exchange for those guarantees). So if I were Ukrainioan I wouldn't put much trust in any such future agreement: who and how will guarantee that this time the guarantees will be effective should Russia break it again --- and we all know that this is a question of "when" rather than "if".
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 01:00:20 AM
The only feasible possibility is indeed Ulrainian neutrality, guaranteed by an international agreement / treaty, all others are not worth wasting time on. But let's not forget that such an agreement actually existed, guaranteeing Ukrainian territorial integrity --- until in 2014 Russia broke it and the other signatories did not enforce it, thus proving it was just a scrap of paper that nobody had taken seriously from the beginning. (The big irony is that Ukraine had been persuaded to give up their nukes in exchange for those guarantees). So if I were Ukrainioan I wouldn't put much trust in any such future agreement: who and how will guarantee that this time the guarantees will be effective should Russia break it again --- and we all know that this is a question of "when" rather than "if".
But at least the borders will be effectively defended, by all the military equipment send to the Ukraine. And of course the Nato borders will have permanent protection, which is a good thing too. But lets not get ahead of ourselves, the war is still in full flight, who knows what will happy in the near future.
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 01:00:20 AMall others are not worth wasting time on.
It is intriguing that the cessation of large-scale shipments of weapons is seen as not feasible.
Quote from: "Harry" on May 03, 2022, 01:19:38 AMAnd of course the Nato borders will have permanent protection
History is very clear on this: no security arrangement is permanent. People alive today have no special insights or abilities when compared to those who came before.
Quote from: Todd on May 03, 2022, 05:07:01 AM
It is intriguing that the cessation of large-scale shipments of weapons is seen as not feasible.
I was referring mainly to the various scenarios about NATO's future.
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 06:15:16 AM
I was referring mainly to the various scenarios about NATO's future.
They are definitely low probability or no probability outcomes, but they illustrate that options exist. These options would generally be superior to defeat in an unnecessary great power war - and all such wars are pretty much unnecessary. They do happen though, from time to time.
There's no point to relying on an agreement on Ukrainian independence that is not backed by sufficient weaponry. Once Ukraine can defend itself and Putin departs we can have agreements, even one that states Ukraine is neutral. Ukraine won't be neutral, but on paper it will be.
The Russian invasion has created a fact about the convergence of interests of Ukraine and NATO that can't be agreed away. Poland must have a secure Ukraine, Germany must have a secure Poland. NATO is as much about the security of the East as it was the security of the West. The alliance has evolved to accommodate the present threat. Russia is dying inside and the solution chosen by Putin is expansion to bring as many Russians and quasi-Russians into the empire as possible before the country falls apart altogether.
The answer to critics of NATO desperate to obsolete it is what's happening now, proof that it's capable of evolving to meet new conditions. Putin is not the only one shocked by this. One imagines how Xi is thinking about how his own military would fare in an invasion of Taiwan.
Quote from: drogulus on May 03, 2022, 07:44:30 AM
Poland must have a secure Ukraine,
A secure Ukraine is a must for Romania and Moldova as well. The farther Russia is kept from our borders, the better.
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 07:48:42 AM
A secure Ukraine is a must for Romania and Moldova as well. The farther Russia is kept from our borders, the better.
What must the US have?
More than half of the 155mm howitzers the US will send to Ukraine have been delivered. A hated NATO can defeat Putin just as well as a loved one.
I was hoping for F-16s. That's not feasible, at least not in the near term. It takes months of training to fly them according to the USAF.
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 07:48:42 AM
A secure Ukraine is a must for Romania and Moldova as well. The farther Russia is kept from our borders, the better.
Putin exhibits the Russian fear of being surrounded to an unhealthy degree. What happens to countries that fear being surrounded and treat neighbors as enemies? They are surrounded.
Generally countries unsurround themselves by making agreements with neighbors and keeping them. Over time trust is built and terrible history is overcome. Alliances are created. Trade agreements are signed and dispute mechanisms are put in place.
Russia hasn't figured out how to operate this way. It's not just a matter of historical inevitability, though. Russians are not wrong to doubt that the country can flourish in a cooperative mode with the advanced countries.
I wish I was good at predicting the future. I'd predict that within a few years an international team will be operating in Russia hunting for every nuclear warhead.
The US doesn't want to be drawn into war by small countries far away that can't defend themselves. The solution is to see that they are defended. It turns out that bringing small threatened countries under the defense umbrella is safer than leaving them out. Putin proved the case, so no doubt remains.
Quote from: Todd on May 03, 2022, 08:17:14 AM
What must the US have?
Ideally (pun!),
(1) as much staunch allies/friends and as little bitter enemies as they can without compromising the principles of which they made themselves the beacon and guardian. While allies and friends come in different shapes and sizes, it's inevitable that enemies come in the form of other great powers
which requires
(2) a firm and principled foreign policy aimed at showcasing the benefits of belonging to the former group and the disadvantages of belonging to the latter group, with special emphasis on the fact that the transition from enemy to friend is entirely possible and welcomed, and completely dependent on the rationality and goodwill of those who would want to take the step.
Idealistic, I know, but you asked, I answered.
Quote from: drogulus on May 03, 2022, 08:19:09 AM
Putin exhibits the Russian fear of being surrounded to an unhealthy degree.
Putin's claim: Russia is surrounded by NATO.
Fact-check:
(https://cdn.britannica.com/43/3843-050-BA294FA7/Russia.jpg)
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 08:36:09 AM
Ideally (pun!),
(1) as much staunch allies/friends and as little bitter enemies as they can without compromising the principles of which they made themselves the beacon and guardian. While allies and friends come in different shapes and sizes, it's inevitable that enemies come in the form of other great powers
which requires
(2) a firm and principled foreign policy aimed at showcasing the benefits of belonging to the former group and the disadvantages of belonging to the latter group, with special emphasis on the fact that the transition from enemy to friend is entirely possible and welcomed, and completely dependent on the rationality and goodwill of those who would want to take the step.
Idealistic, I know, but you asked, I answered.
I mean in terms of a basic geographic security analysis like used when stating that a secure Ukraine is a must for Romania and Moldova. A secure Ukraine is not a must for the US, for instance.
A secure Ukraine secures a significant part of the wheat supply for North Africa and the Middle East which stabilises that region. Which probably interests the USA.
The world is far more interconnected than someone with a lack of imagination supposes.
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 08:49:29 AM
Putin's claim: Russia is surrounded by NATO.
Fact-check:
(https://cdn.britannica.com/43/3843-050-BA294FA7/Russia.jpg)
It's not always clear to me how much even RUSSIA regards the Asian part of Russia as genuinely Russian. At times it almost feels like that's the bit of empire they kept holding onto but don't value much. It's a European country perpetually a bit annoyed at how geography was cruel enough to put it at the edge of Europe.
Quote from: Madiel on May 03, 2022, 09:03:13 AM
It's not always clear to me how much even RUSSIA regards the Asian part of Russia as genuinely Russian. At times it almost feels like that's the bit of empire they kept holding onto but don't value much. It's a European country perpetually a bit annoyed at how geography was cruel enough to put it at the edge of Europe.
Well, then you will be greatly surprised to find out that Alexander Dugin, the official ideologue of Putinism, has been for years making the case for a Eurasian Union, extending from Lisbon to Vladivostok, completely anti-NATO and anti-US and under Russian hegemony, of course.
Plus, many if not most of the soldiers currently operating in Ukraine come from beyond the Urals and have distinctly Asian physiognomy.
Napoleon was quite right:
Scratch a Russian and you'll find a Tartar. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 08:49:29 AM
Putin's claim: Russia is surrounded by NATO.
Fact-check:
(https://cdn.britannica.com/43/3843-050-BA294FA7/Russia.jpg)
Russia does have borders with NATO countries other than the Baltic States and Poland, but they're not in Europe and usually not thought of as borders: Canada (Arctic Ocean), USA (Bering Sea and Strait), Turkey (Black Sea).
Quote from: Florestan on May 03, 2022, 09:32:08 AM
Well, then you will be greatly surprised to find out that Alexander Dugin, the official ideologue of Putinism, has been for years making the case for a Eurasian Union, extending from Lisbon to Vladivostok, completely anti-NATO and anti-US and under Russian hegemony, of course.
Plus, many if not most of the soldiers currently operating in Ukraine come from beyond the Urals and have distinctly Asian physiognomy.
Napoleon was quite right: Scratch a Russian and you'll find a Tartar. ;D
Getting soldiers from a different part of the empire was a Roman tactic. But the soldiers weren't Romans.
Quote from: JBS on May 03, 2022, 09:43:01 AM
Russia does have borders with NATO countries other than the Baltic States and Poland, but they're not in Europe and usually not thought of as borders: Canada (Arctic Ocean), USA (Bering Sea and Strait), Turkey (Black Sea).
Mongolia is a global partner of NATO. And of course Japan has a robust treaty with the US, along with territorial disputes with Russia.
Actually, concerning the basic Europeanness of Russia, another one of the reveries by some current regime adherents, cf. their growing anti-Westerness and opposition to Western values and influences, is that of moving Russia's focus and connections much more towards Asia, and away from Europe. This would include Moscow as the capital being replaced by a city in Siberia. Shoigu is allegedly among those who are keen on such an idea.
Quote from: JBS on May 03, 2022, 09:43:01 AM
Russia does have borders with NATO countries other than the Baltic States and Poland, but they're not in Europe and usually not thought of as borders: Canada (Arctic Ocean), USA (Bering Sea and Strait), Turkey (Black Sea).
Russia proper (excluding Kaliningrad) has terrestrial borders with exactly three NATO countries: Latvia, Estonia and Norway. The claim that they are surrounded by NATO is paranoid.
Pope says NATO may have caused Russia's invasion of Ukraine (https://www.politico.eu/article/pope-francis-nato-cause-ukraine-invasion-russia/)
Phrase of the day: "NATO's barking at Russia's door".
Pope Francis is a pinko and a fool and misses no opportunity to prove it.
The Holy See has been asking since mid-March for a meeting between Francis and Putin in Moscow, the pope said. "Of course we needed the leader of the Kremlin to allocate a window of time. We haven't yet had any response, and we are still trying, even if I fear that Putin can't and doesn't want to have this meeting at this time."
What a moron.
Quote from: Florestan on May 04, 2022, 06:33:54 AM
Pope Francis is a pinko and a fool and misses no opportunity to prove it.
The Holy See has been asking since mid-March for a meeting between Francis and Putin in Moscow, the pope said. "Of course we needed the leader of the Kremlin to allocate a window of time. We haven't yet had any response, and we are still trying, even if I fear that Putin can't and doesn't want to have this meeting at this time."
What a moron.
Agreed, he is a fool.
Not agreed.
By now, Pope Francis should have already met Zelensky in Kyiv, held the Mass in the Roman Catholic St. Alexander Cathedral and then should have gone to Lviv (the capital of a province where Roman Catholics are majoritarian) and also hold a Mass there. But no, he's too busy slavishly begging fro Putin's attention and persevering despite receiving nothing but a disdainful silence from him. His behaviour is shameful.
Quote from: Florestan on May 04, 2022, 07:44:15 AM
By now, Pope Francis should have already met Zelensky in Kyiv, held the Mass in the Roman Catholic St. Alexander Cathedral and then should have gone to Lviv (the capital of a province where Roman Catholics are majoritarian) and also hold a Mass there. But no, he's too busy slavishly begging fro Putin's attention and persevering despite receiving nothing but a disdainful silence from him. His behaviour is shameful.
Again agreed!
Here's a realistic assessment of the combat losses for both Russia and Ukraine provided by my favorite sock puppet.
https://www.youtube.com/v/Mt3Sua-fZH4
Quote from: "Harry" on May 04, 2022, 07:46:16 AM
Again agreed!
His insistence on meeting Putin is extremely foolish because he knows very well, or ought to know very well, that it's actually impossible: (1) for him to go to Russia he'll have to have the consent of Kiril and it's hard to believe the latter will give it and (2) it's highly unlikely that Putin will leave Russia to meet Pope Francis somewhere in the world.
Quote from: Florestan on May 04, 2022, 06:33:54 AM
Pope Francis is a pinko and a fool and misses no opportunity to prove it.
The Holy See has been asking since mid-March for a meeting between Francis and Putin in Moscow, the pope said. "Of course we needed the leader of the Kremlin to allocate a window of time. We haven't yet had any response, and we are still trying, even if I fear that Putin can't and doesn't want to have this meeting at this time."
What a moron.
Full disclosure: I was baptised Roman Catholic but have not practised the (or any organised) religion in nearly 50 years. But I think Francis is cannier than that: I note that the article says that "while he [Francis] might not go as far as saying NATO's presence in nearby countries 'provoked' Moscow, it 'perhaps facilitated' the invasion." "Facilitated" is a well-chosen word in my opinion: it gave Putin an argument, an excuse, to justify the unjustifiable.
And it sounds as if he's been in communication with Kirill and no doubt is well aware that he would need Kirill's consent to travel to Moscow.
Quote from: Florestan on May 04, 2022, 07:44:15 AM
By now, Pope Francis should have already met Zelensky in Kyiv, held the Mass in the Roman Catholic St. Alexander Cathedral and then should have gone to Lviv (the capital of a province where Roman Catholics are majoritarian) and also hold a Mass there. But no, he's too busy slavishly begging fro Putin's attention and persevering despite receiving nothing but a disdainful silence from him. His behaviour is shameful.
He's trying to hold talks, not masses. The functions are different.
Quote from: Florestan on May 04, 2022, 06:33:54 AM
Pope Francis is a pinko and a fool and misses no opportunity to prove it.
The Holy See has been asking since mid-March for a meeting between Francis and Putin in Moscow, the pope said. "Of course we needed the leader of the Kremlin to allocate a window of time. We haven't yet had any response, and we are still trying, even if I fear that Putin can't and doesn't want to have this meeting at this time."
What a moron.
Quote from: "Harry" on May 04, 2022, 06:39:31 AM
Agreed, he is a fool.
While western nations respond to Putin with hardcore retaliation, its purpose is not to hurt Putin or destroy Russia. Its purpose is to influence Putin and make him decide to withdraw from Ukraine. For this purpose, it is more effective that some parties like Macron and Pope maintain channel with Kremlin. It is persuasion and communication, rather than appeasement. A massive retaliation with total lack of communication won't get anything the West wants from Putin. Though I am a non-believer and I don't care Vatican, I have seen the knowledge and sincerity of this pope for years.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on May 04, 2022, 02:39:52 PMIts purpose is to influence Putin and make him decide to withdraw from Ukraine.
This is factually inaccurate. The Biden administration has been unusually forthright in stating one of its goals:
Quote from: Secretary of Defense Lloyd AustinWe want to see Russia weakened.
This was immediately seized upon by more aggressive foreign policy analysts - eg, Yes, the United States Should Weaken Russia. (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/04/yes-the-united-states-should-weaken-russia/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921)
The war is about more than just having Russia withdraw from Ukraine. One can read the official White House joint statement from 9/1/21 called 'Joint Statement on the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership' to get a sense of what policy is, and why Biden's suggestion that he would be open to Ukrainian neutrality may sound hollow to others.
What a scandal it is when the aggressor is not only defeated, but weakened!
By the way, is it "Europe at War" yet?
Quote from: drogulus on May 04, 2022, 06:48:14 PM
By the way, is it "Europe at War" yet?
If it is, this might mean the Pope isn't in Europe, which I imagine might surprise him.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on May 04, 2022, 02:39:52 PM
to influence Putin and make him decide to withdraw from Ukraine.
If Pope Francis really thinks he can do that, then it only proves my point: he's a fool.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on May 04, 2022, 02:39:52 PM
I have seen the knowledge and sincerity of this pope for years.
Sure, he's probably sincere in his pinko beliefs and his friendly attitude to various authoritarian leftist leaders. Other than that, he's as sincere as a Jesuit can be.
Look, he visited Romania a few years ago and I quite liked him then for his humility and kindness (provided they were sincere, see above) --- but I strongly dislike the general tone of his papacy.
Quote from: drogulus on May 04, 2022, 06:48:14 PM
By the way, is it "Europe at War" yet?
I've asked the OP to change the title to "War in Europe" long time ago.
Quote from: Madiel on May 04, 2022, 02:17:05 PM
He's trying to hold talks, not masses. The functions are different.
Well, last I checked the primary function of a Roman Catholic was to attend Mass and the primary function of a Roman Catholic priest was to celebrate the Mass. But I remember what a very good Spanish friend of mine, an atheist (not of the fanatical kind), once told me: "Francis believes in God even less than I do."
Quote from: Florestan on May 05, 2022, 01:14:54 AM
Well, last I checked the primary function of a Roman Catholic was to attend Mass and the primary function of a Roman Catholic priest was to celebrate the Mass. But I remember what a very good Spanish friend of mine, an atheist (not of the fanatical kind), once told me: "Francis believes in God even less than I do."
Gosh. That must explain why he's done radical things like suggest I'm not automatically going to hell for being homosexual.
Maybe your Spanish friend is the fool here.
Quote from: Madiel on May 05, 2022, 01:19:17 AM
he's done radical things like suggest I'm not automatically going to hell for being homosexual.
So radical that the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops expressed it publicly and officially in 2006, a full seven years before Jorge Mario Bergoglio's election as Pope.
https://www.usccb.org/committees/doctrine/table-contents (https://www.usccb.org/committees/doctrine/table-contents)
Quote from: Florestan on May 05, 2022, 01:37:59 AM
So radical that the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops expressed it publicly and officially in 2006, a full seven years before Jorge Mario Bergoglio's election as Pope.
https://www.usccb.org/committees/doctrine/table-contents (https://www.usccb.org/committees/doctrine/table-contents)
So they must all be atheists as well.
Quote from: Madiel on May 05, 2022, 01:19:17 AM
Gosh. That must explain why he's done radical things like suggest I'm not automatically going to hell for being homosexual.
Religions have done a lot to make the lives of homosexuals a living hell... :P
Quote from: 71 dB on May 05, 2022, 04:43:18 AM
Religions have done a lot to make the lives of homosexuals a living hell... :P
Yes, but let's not got into that here. The point is that absolutely zero evidence was provided for asserting that the Pope doesn't believe in God. So I was facetiously providing possible evidence.
Kyrill and the Pope have the same master, the God of greed, be it for wordly power, or Roebels in the case of Kyrill. Organized religion always leads to corruption of soul and body.
Quote from: "Harry" on May 05, 2022, 05:08:33 AM
Kyrill and the Pope have the same master, the God of greed, be it for wordly power, or Roebels in the case of Kyrill. Organized religion always leads to corruption of soul and body.
Right. When the Pope came in and told all the cardinals they had to get rid of luxury cars etc etc, he was really showing his devotion to greed. ::)
Quote from: Florestan on May 05, 2022, 01:07:17 AM
If Pope Francis really thinks he can do that, then it only proves my point: he's a fool.
Sure, he's probably sincere in his pinko beliefs and his friendly attitude to various authoritarian leftist leaders. Other than that, he's as sincere as a Jesuit can be.
Look, he visited Romania a few years ago and I quite liked him then for his humility and kindness (provided they were sincere, see above) --- but I strongly dislike the general tone of his papacy.
Pope, especially Pope Francis, is a leader in the sphere of humanity, not politics/realpolitik. The paradigm is different.
Quote from: Madiel on May 05, 2022, 05:16:41 AM
Right. When the Pope came in and told all the cardinals they had to get rid of luxury cars etc etc, he was really showing his devotion to greed. ::)
The RCC could solve world hunger simply by selling off their enormous assets hoarded over centuries. Selling their luxury cars is pathetic window dressing compared to their real estate holdings, the contents of the Vatican Museum, etc.
Alright, let's move on in this thread. Any further posts about religion, with the very narrow exception of the relevant relationship between Russia and the Church will be deleted without further notice. I hope that won't become necessary. 😕
🤠😎
White House believes Russia has 'already lost' the war in Ukraine (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-white-house-press-secretary-jen-psaki-holds-news-briefing-46)
Perhaps Putin will recognize the truth and wisdom in Psaki's statements and on Monday he will apologize and begin a full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
Quote from: Florestan on May 05, 2022, 01:08:12 AM
I've asked the OP to change the title to "War in Europe" long time ago.
How many countries are providing military aid to Ukraine? How many are in Europe? Total war is not the only kind. Wars are more often limited in scope in a variety of ways. Initially many countries only provided light weapons, but now heavy weapons are arriving in Ukraine. That's escalation, and it's clear what is being escalated.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on May 04, 2022, 02:39:52 PM
While western nations respond to Putin with hardcore retaliation, its purpose is not to hurt Putin or destroy Russia. Its purpose is to influence Putin and make him decide to withdraw from Ukraine. For this purpose, it is more effective that some parties like Macron and Pope maintain channel with Kremlin. It is persuasion and communication, rather than appeasement. A massive retaliation with total lack of communication won't get anything the West wants from Putin. Though I am a non-believer and I don't care Vatican, I have seen the knowledge and sincerity of this pope for years.
Good post.
The warring countries can fight and talk at the same time. I have no idea what conversations are going on, so let me tell you what they are. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif) Russia and France are talking. The US and Russia are talking. Russia and Ukraine are talking off and on. I judge that at some point when battlefield outcomes are more decisive some of these talks might lead to a framework for ending the conflict. I don't think "I come in peace" emissaries will have much impact.
Quote from: drogulus on May 05, 2022, 06:58:23 AM
How many countries are providing military aid to Ukraine? How many are in Europe? Total war is not the only kind. Wars are more often limited in scope in a variety of ways. Initially many countries only provided light weapons, but now heavy weapons are arriving in Ukraine. That's escalation, and it's clear what is being escalated.
What's also clear is that you think that someone is participating in music making if they sell me a piano.
Quote from: Madiel on May 05, 2022, 01:33:05 PM
What's also clear is that you think that someone is participating in music making if they sell me a piano.
The US/NATO is providing targeting information for Ukrainian forces, and training for troops. NATO has built an army in its image in Ukraine over the last 8 years. That's a lot of music making.
Quote from: drogulus on May 05, 2022, 01:55:45 PM
The US/NATO is providing targeting information for Ukrainian forces, and training for troops. NATO has built an army in its image in Ukraine over the last 8 years. That's a lot of music making.
Quantity is not the issue. Definition is. The art supply store is making art. The supermarket is cooking food.
Quote from: Madiel on May 05, 2022, 02:01:13 PM
Quantity is not the issue. Definition is. The art supply store is making art. The supermarket is cooking food.
Let's say China launched missiles at Australia and US satellites or drones or whatever provided the GPS coordinates or imaging to precisely target the strike. Don't you think the US would be committing an act of war against your country? I'd be rioting in the streets throwing rocks at the US embassy sporting my puffy "Death to America!" beard.
U.S. Intelligence Helped Ukraine Strike Russian Flagship, Officials Say (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/us/politics/moskva-russia-ship-ukraine-us.html)
On April 13, Ukrainian forces on the ground fired two Neptune missiles, striking the Moskva and igniting a fire that eventually led to the sinking of the warship. Attention has also focused on whether the aging ship's radar systems were working properly. Ukrainian and U.S. officials said the Moskva was possibly distracted by Ukraine's deploying of a Turkish-made Bayraktar drone nearby.
Immediately after the strike, Biden administration officials were scrupulously silent, declining to confirm even that the Moskva had been struck. But in recent days, American officials confirmed that targeting data from American intelligence sources was provided to Ukraine in the hours before the Neptune missiles were launched.
The officials declined to elaborate on what specific information was passed along, but one official said the information went beyond simply a report on the ship's location in the Black Sea, 65 nautical miles south of Odessa.
Quote from: drogulus on May 05, 2022, 04:04:22 PM
Let's say China launched missiles at Australia and US satellites or drones or whatever provided the GPS coordinates or imaging to precisely target the strike. Don't you think the US would be committing an act of war against your country? I'd be rioting in the streets throwing rocks at the US embassy sporting my puffy "Death to America!" beard.
No, I don't think that, for the same reason that I don't think that Apple or Microsoft or Samsung wrote your post.
You are in fact illustrating perfectly the problem with your own position, where it is possible to blame whoever you FEEL like blaming for their role in what happened, so long as you can manage to create a chain of causal links for it, while choosing language that completely erases any discussion about how significant the causal links actually are.
You've completely erased any nuance about different levels of responsibility, or even considering whether the technology had a number of different possible uses besides the use you were complaining about.
Describing supply of weapons as being "at war" means you have completely lost the ability to make any distinction between armed forces that are firing weapons and armed forces that are not using the arms in their possession. And frankly that's really fucking dumb overreach.
I've given you any number of practical examples of how no one would apply your logic to everyday life, none of which you acknowledged. You just persist in claiming that supply chains have no functional distinction between the supplier and the recipient.
Which means, by the way, that some posts on this handle are by Apple and Optus whereas others are by a combination of Microsoft, Aussie Broadband, NBN Co and a computer store in Belconnen, and I'm wondering whether you can tell which posts are which.
Quote from: drogulus on May 05, 2022, 04:18:21 PM
U.S. Intelligence Helped Ukraine Strike Russian Flagship, Officials Say (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/us/politics/moskva-russia-ship-ukraine-us.html)
On April 13, Ukrainian forces on the ground fired two Neptune missiles, striking the Moskva and igniting a fire that eventually led to the sinking of the warship. Attention has also focused on whether the aging ship's radar systems were working properly. Ukrainian and U.S. officials said the Moskva was possibly distracted by Ukraine's deploying of a Turkish-made Bayraktar drone nearby.
Immediately after the strike, Biden administration officials were scrupulously silent, declining to confirm even that the Moskva had been struck. But in recent days, American officials confirmed that targeting data from American intelligence sources was provided to Ukraine in the hours before the Neptune missiles were launched.
The officials declined to elaborate on what specific information was passed along, but one official said the information went beyond simply a report on the ship's location in the Black Sea, 65 nautical miles south of Odessa.
Yes. It says Ukrainian forces fired missiles. Your argument that this is exactly the same as American forces firing the missiles is silly. If everyone thought the way you're thinking then World War Three would have happened long ago. People actually learned to STOP thinking like this precisely because your sort of thinking contributed to World War One.
Quote from: Madiel on May 05, 2022, 05:40:45 PM
No, I don't think that,
Helping the Chinese attack your country seems pretty warlike.
Quote from: Madiel on May 05, 2022, 06:06:45 PM
Yes. It says Ukrainian forces fired missiles. Your argument that this is exactly the same as American forces firing the missiles is silly. If everyone thought the way you're thinking then World War Three would have happened long ago. People actually learned to STOP thinking like this precisely because your sort of thinking contributed to World War One.
I didn't say it was exactly the same, just that targeting warships and Russian generals are acts of war. You can scale aiming the gun and pulling the trigger however you see fit.
Quote from: drogulus on May 05, 2022, 06:41:32 PM
Helping the Chinese attack your country seems pretty warlike.
But helped HOW? You simply seem to have papered over a vast range of options. I mean, GPS is a system that was set up by the US government but is used by billions of people every damn day. And blaming America for every single thing that involves GPS somehow, and expecting me to jump to that conclusion on the strength of a brief description you sketched out in less than 2 lines, is inordinately unsubtle and stupid.
Quote from: drogulus on May 05, 2022, 06:41:32 PM
I didn't say it was exactly the same, just that targeting warships and Russian generals are acts of war. You can scale aiming the gun and pulling the trigger however you see fit.
You did say it was exactly the same, because "at war" is the highest level available. There is no linguistic option where Ukraine is At War with Russia but the USA is at war* with Russia. You collapsed the levels of involvement into a single kind of terminology. And that is exactly why I and others have been criticising you.
Its kind of ironic of course, given that Russia flatly denies being at war with ANYONE, that you are so eager to add to the list of combatants.
Putin hasn't even had his 9th May victory parade yet, and it is already clear that his renewed offensive is going nowhere...
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5
Ukraine is pushing back around Kharkiv and Izyum, but has announced there will be no large counter offensive before June.
It seems time is in Ukraine's favour. Putin's Belorussian buddy Lukashenko has already pointed out that this is all taking very long.. .
According to drogulus, we are in the early phase of WWIII, which is fought between Russia on one side and a Ukraine-NATO coalition on the other side. Well, I know at least one other poster who might agree. I disagree.
Quote from: Florestan on May 06, 2022, 12:57:39 AM
According to drogulus, we are in the early phase of WWIII, which is fought between Russia on one side and a Ukraine-NATO coalition on the other side. Well, I know at least one other poster who might agree. I disagree.
Whether or not this war in Ukraine leads to WWIII, I fear for the near future. Populism is on the rise all over the World. Social media creates bubbles. People are ignorant, but have strong opinions anyway. It means that bad leaders are elected and bad leaders means more war... :(
Quote from: 71 dB on May 06, 2022, 01:23:14 AM
Whether or not this war in Ukraine leads to WWIII, I fear for the near future. Populism is on the rise all over the World. Social media creates bubbles. People are ignorant, but have strong opinions anyway. It means that bad leaders are elected and bad leaders means more war... :(
Here, take this antidepressant: https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,29166.msg1443698.html#msg1443698 (https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,29166.msg1443698.html#msg1443698). :D
Drogulus' theory is easily refuted with the help of a historical example: the Spanish Civil War, 1936-39. It was a war in which not only both sides were supplied with weapons by third parties, but those third parties were actively involved in the actual fightings. Yet no historian has ever called it otherwise than the Spanish Civil War.
The war in Ukraine is neither a proxy war nor WWIII.
It may evolve into a greater and/or more complex conflict, depending on Putin's willingness to strike other non-Nato states, or resort to wmds ( A lot of press lately regarding nuclear, very little regarding chemical/biological, both of which would be more deniable ).
Supplying significant material support to a combatant doesn't make you a participant. I doubt there's a single historian anywhere who would consider the United States' entry into WWII to be the start of the Lend-Lease program.
Quote from: Florestan on May 06, 2022, 01:41:32 AM
Here, take this antidepressant: https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,29166.msg1443698.html#msg1443698 (https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,29166.msg1443698.html#msg1443698). :D
Thanks, but it makes me even more depressing to know my Goyescas aren't the best there is...
Quote from: LKB on May 06, 2022, 07:07:00 AM
The war in Ukraine is neither a proxy war nor WWIII.
It may evolve into a greater and/or more complex conflict, depending on Putin's willingness to strike other non-Nato states, or resort to wmds ( A lot of press lately regarding nuclear, very little regarding chemical/biological, both of which would be more deniable ).
Supplying significant material support to a combatant doesn't make you a participant. I doubt there's a single historian anywhere who would consider the United States' entry into WWII to be the start of the Lend-Lease program.
Well said.
Quote from: Madiel on May 05, 2022, 07:46:44 PM
But helped HOW? You simply seem to have papered over a vast range of options. I mean, GPS is a system that was set up by the US government but is used by billions of people every damn day. And blaming America for every single thing that involves GPS somehow, and expecting me to jump to that conclusion on the strength of a brief description you sketched out in less than 2 lines, is inordinately unsubtle and stupid.
I gave you the example in which China fires a missile guided by targeting information from the US military. The fact that the GPS tech has civilian uses is not relevant. It could be NSA intercepts and satellite imaging, or a spy drone piloted by a guy in Utah. The point is your generals are killed and your warship is sunk by the combined efforts of your Chinese trigger puller aided by US aiming for their joint purpose.
Quote from: LKB on May 06, 2022, 07:07:00 AM
The war in Ukraine is neither a proxy war nor WWIII.
I agree. It's in the middle somewhere.
Quote from: LKB on May 06, 2022, 07:07:00 AM
Supplying significant material support to a combatant doesn't make you a participant. I doubt there's a single historian anywhere who would consider the United States' entry into WWII to be the start of the Lend-Lease program.
Declarations of war were still a thing in the '40s. It would depend on what questions you asked about US involvement in China, or the sinking of US shipping by German subs, or Lend Lease.
Quote from: LKB on May 06, 2022, 07:07:00 AMThe war in Ukraine is neither a proxy war nor WWIII.
It is a proxy war for the US.
Quote from: LKB on May 06, 2022, 07:07:00 AMSupplying significant material support to a combatant doesn't make you a participant.
The US has done more than that. The US has begun publicly taking credit for providing intelligence that led to the killing of Russian generals and the sinking of the Moskva.
As to your claim about historians and what they may or may not think, literally eight seconds of googling provided this:
The Undeclared War: How the Lend Lease Act of 1941 Signaled America's Entry into World War II by one Aaron Griffin. I suspect there are many historians outside of the western world who take a rather different view than western scholars on this topic.
I can imagine a legalistic definition of war that let's some of the supposedly noncombatant parties claim "I come in almost peace" or some such nonsense. US "advisors" in Ukraine, the ones who aren't exactly there, can be dismissed as rumors or propaganda.
There is no equivalent to the nonintervention agreements of the Spanish Civil War. Such agreements that we have are of the interventionist kind, though combat is limited to what is deniable.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 06, 2022, 07:15:11 AM
Thanks, but it makes me even more depressing to know my Goyescas aren't the best there is...
Wooops, my bad! :)
To repair it, I can let you have the Berthold in FLAC and booklet. Just PM me if interested.
And if not, don't worry: the best anything is the one that you enjoy. ;)
Quote from: drogulus on May 06, 2022, 08:27:34 AM
There is no equivalent to the nonintervention agreements of the Spanish Civil War.
What are you talking about? Germany and Italy openly intervened on the side of the National camp and the USSR openly intervened on the side of the Republican camp. Yet no historian has ever called that war a Hispano-Germano-Italo-USSR war.
Quote from: Florestan on May 06, 2022, 12:57:39 AM
According to drogulus, we are in the early phase of WWIII, which is fought between Russia on one side and a Ukraine-NATO coalition on the other side. Well, I know at least one other poster who might agree. I disagree.
If what you have in mind is nuclear war, I don't think that. It's not even clear to me that any nations on the noncombatant list will commit combat forces. I do envision the possibility that Russia may attack other non-NATO countries, though Russian forces may be so depleted by fighting in Ukraine that they no longer have the strength to do it.
Quote from: Florestan on May 06, 2022, 08:38:41 AM
What are you talking about? Germany and Italy openly intervened on the side of the National camp and the USSR openly intervened on the side of the Republican camp.
I'm sure that's why the nonintervention agreements were put in place. Wikipedia says:
During the Spanish Civil War, several countries followed a principle of non-intervention to avoid any potential escalation or possible expansion of the war to other states. That would result in the signing of the Non-Intervention Agreement in August 1936 and the setting up of the Non-Intervention Committee, which first met in September. Primarily arranged by the French and the British governments, the Committee also included the Soviet Union, Fascist Italy, and Nazi Germany. Ultimately, the committee had the support of 27 states. So, intervention spawned nonintervention. That makes sense.
Quote from: drogulus on May 06, 2022, 09:13:08 AM
Wikipedia says:
During the Spanish Civil War, several countries followed a principle of non-intervention to avoid any potential escalation or possible expansion of the war to other states. That would result in the signing of the Non-Intervention Agreement in August 1936 and the setting up of the Non-Intervention Committee, which first met in September. Primarily arranged by the French and the British governments, the Committee also included the Soviet Union, Fascist Italy, and Nazi Germany. Ultimately, the committee had the support of 27 states.
So, intervention spawned nonintervention. That makes sense.
Actually, it was exactly the other way around: a putative nonintervention was committed to a scrap of paper and subsequently intervention took place.
I do hope you are not going to argue that Germany, Italy and the Soviets observed the agreement, it was just volunteers without any connection to their respective governments who joined one camp or another --- or that the USSR (or Tsarist Russia or Russian Federation for that matter) being signatory of a treaty means they have any intention whatsoever to abide by it.
Quote from: Florestan on May 06, 2022, 09:24:00 AM
Actually, it was exactly the other way around: a putative nonintervention was committed to a scrap of paper and subsequently intervention took place.
Italy and Germany supported the Spanish Nationalists from the outset of the Spanish Civil War. The Soviet Union began supporting the Spanish Republicans four months later. Non-intervention and the Non-Intervention Agreement were proposed in a joint diplomatic initiative by the governments of France and the United Kingdom. Part of the policy of appeasement, it was aimed at preventing a proxy war from escalating into a European-wide conflict. So, there was intervention, a non-intervention agreement, and more intervention. That makes sense.
If you provide military aid to a combatant in a war, that is not nonintervention, and that is not neutrality. You are materially aiding the war effort. I'm not interested in a legalistic appraisal of these actions. I'm concerned with the intentions and consequences.
Quote from: drogulus on May 06, 2022, 09:44:46 AM
If you provide military aid to a combatant in a war, that is not nonintervention, and that is not neutrality.
True --- but it doesn't make you a combatant in that war, ie you are not at war with the camp opposing the camp you support.
Look, if you imply that NATO is not neutral in a general sense and that each and every NATO country* --- and a few non-NATO countries as well, for that matter --- is part and parcel of an ideological, political, economic and social conflict (call it war, if it suits you) with Russia, I do agree. What I do disagree with is that NATO as a whole, or any individual NATO country, is currently at war with Russia.
*conspicuously excepting Hungary
Quote from: drogulus on May 06, 2022, 07:18:50 AM
I gave you the example in which China fires a missile guided by targeting information from the US military. The fact that the GPS tech has civilian uses is not relevant. It could be NSA intercepts and satellite imaging, or a spy drone piloted by a guy in Utah. The point is your generals are killed and your warship is sunk by the combined efforts of your Chinese trigger puller aided by US aiming for their joint purpose.
You still don't get how brief and hopelessly non-detailed your "example" was, and I'm bored now.
U.S. relieved as China appears to heed warnings on Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-relieved-china-appears-heed-warnings-russia-2022-05-03/)
WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - Two months after warning that Beijing appeared poised to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine, senior U.S. officials say they have not detected overt Chinese military and economic support, a welcome development in the tense U.S.-China relationship.
U.S. officials told Reuters in recent days they remain wary about China's long-standing support for Russia in general, but that the military and economic support that they worried about has not come to pass, at least for now. The relief comes at a pivotal time.
As well as steering clear of directly backing Russia's war effort, China has avoided entering new contracts between its state oil refiners and Russia, despite steep discounts. In March its state-run Sinopec Group suspended talks about a major petrochemical investment and a gas marketing venture in Russia.
An interesting article about the reaction in the Russian elites, with some not generally mentioned info - including a governmental 'fraud' investment programme now hitting wealthy people, and a lot more
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/05/a-heart-to-heart-with-russias-elites-a77587
Natalia Poklonskaya in a surprising move - with her legal background, an exiled Ukrainian turned a die-hard Russian nationalist and career politician, she is now nonetheless promoting the legal cases of Russian mothers against the state, because of their sons being conscripted into a non-declared war, and she is criticizing the 'Z'-fascism:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/20/ex-crimea-prosecutor-poklonskaya-slams-russias-pro-war-z-symbol-a77418
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522589714053750784
The 'Moskva" ship, conscripts etc.:
"Military prosecutors reportedly told Dmitry Shkrebets, whose son "went missing" aboard the Moskva, that the warship never entered Ukraine's territorial waters and wasn't part of Russia's "special operation." The ship sank in an innocent accident is all!
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522447329583935488
" We're not entirely certain what caused the loss of Moskva. Some of the surviving crew claim the Sun was in their eyes, others that the dog ate their homework, and the engineers believe it was sugar in the gas tank. All are agreed, however, that the Ukranians had absolutely nothing to do with it. "
Several sources are reporting Russian governmental entities recruiting experts in war mobilization, since April 21st. Perhaps Putin will clarify on Monday.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-hires-war-mobilization-specialists-putin-denying-declare-war-ukraine-1704161?amp=1
Russia is a drunk hooligan with nukes.
Truly, really and genuinely the scourge of the earth.
A good read on the issues regarding Putin's health, by Galeotti
https://intellinews.com/stolypin-the-sick-man-of-europe-243657/
So far, the message from the Victory Day parades in Russia has been 'Expect more of the same' - including confirming the view of the West as a threatening opponent.
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 09, 2022, 04:05:57 AM
A good read on the issues regarding Putin's health, by Galeotti
https://intellinews.com/stolypin-the-sick-man-of-europe-243657/
Run of the mill propaganda. The more things change and all that.
(https://tpsteachersnetwork.org/images/tps/images/210056032f809983876.56910257.jpg)
Bragging about blowing up Russian generals could get us all killed
How the self-aggrandizing culture of Washington could spark World War III (https://theweek.com/politics/1013374/bragging-about-blowing-up-russian-generals-could-get-us-all-killed)
Maybe a bit over the top. One thing is for sure, Ukrainians will suffer and die because of loose talk in the US.
Russian ambassador to Poland pelted with red paint at VE Day gathering
Police escort Sergey Andreev away after protesters prevent him laying wreath at Soviet cemetery in Warsaw (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/09/russian-ambassador-to-poland-sergey-andreev-pelted-with-red-paint-at-ve-day-gathering)
Quite possibly the ambassador knew exactly what was going to happen and actually counted on it to happen, in order to offer Putin yet another pretext to bark at "Polish neo-Nazism" and "worldwide Russophobia".
Quote from: Todd on May 10, 2022, 05:52:53 AM
Bragging about blowing up Russian generals could get us all killed
How the self-aggrandizing culture of Washington could spark World War III (https://theweek.com/politics/1013374/bragging-about-blowing-up-russian-generals-could-get-us-all-killed)
Maybe a bit over the top. One thing is for sure, Ukrainians will suffer and die because of loose talk in the US.
I think the author makes a good point. Something similar, albeit on a much smaller scale, happened in Romania two weeks ago when the Speaker of the Senate and that of the Chamber of Deputies bragged about how Romania was going to send weapons to Ukraine. I am not opposed to the move but announcing it publicly and loudly is the top of stupidity. Eventually the prime-minister stepped in and stated that nothing has been decided yet.
Quote from: Florestan on May 10, 2022, 06:00:19 AM"Polish neo-Nazism"
Zelensky recently accused Russia of a "bloody reconstruction of Nazism". Nazis are everywhere, on all sides of all conflicts. It's terribly unnerving, all the Nazis out there today.
Nazi / Fascist has long ago become a synonym for "someone whom the speaker despises and would like to see silenced forever". ;D
Announcements don't signify concerning communication between the warring parties. What matters is what Russians and the US are saying to each other at a secret location where talks are going on.
Announcers may be communicating among the allies, though I think it's mostly for internal consumption.
Quote from: drogulus on May 10, 2022, 10:11:30 AM
What matters is what Russians and the US are saying to each other at a secret location where talks are going on.
Go ahead, tell us more, you sound very well-versed in this matter.
French President Emmanuel Macron has warned against humiliating Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, if and when any peace settlement is agreed.
He told reporters in Strasbourg that once the war ends, Moscow and Kyiv will eventually have to sit down and negotiate with each other, so any further tensions will only serve to the detriment of the situation.
(https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/macron-warns-against-humiliating-russia-over-war-in-ukraine)
No one in their right minds want any humiliation of Russia, of course. Problem is, for the time being we are witnessing not any putative humiliation of Russia but the outright destruction of Ukraine by the Russian invading army --- and any further tension is entirely on the Russian side. Mr Macron missed an excellent opportunity to shut up.
Quote from: Florestan on May 10, 2022, 10:13:15 AM
Go ahead, tell us more, you sound very well-versed in this matter.
Once upon a time a Russian guy, maybe a deputy prime minister, showed up in Baku, Azerbaijan at the same time as a US State Dept. team was there. This was a couple of days ago.
What stands out about the meeting is that the deniability explains the secrecy. Nothing is official, nothing is agreed to, no one has been betrayed etc.
The obvious model is the Cuban Missile Crisis. In fact none of the people involved nor innocent bystanders have a superior model to use.
Whether or not there is a front channel there will be a back channel. I think the bored and /or fearful should understand that our WWIII exercise won't be of the nuclear variety.
Other than that we don't give out no information and no fighting in the War Room.
Finland and UK sign joint security declaration
"We make these commitments to our friends in Finland not just because we can, but because we must," PM Johnson said in a press conference after meeting President Sauli Niinistö.
When asked about the Kremlin's thoughts on a possible Nato membership Niinistö denounced Russia's attempt to remove Finland and Sweden's agency over the decision.
"If the case is that we join well, my response [to Russia] would be that you caused this, look at the mirror," Niinistö said.
https://yle.fi/news/3-12441348
Good, that should give Finland a bit of extra security while they go through the NATO joining process. And the same thing applies to Sweden.
Quote from: steve ridgway on May 12, 2022, 02:23:50 AM
Good, that should give Finland a bit of extra security while they go through the NATO joining process. And the same thing applies to Sweden.
+1
Quote from: steve ridgway on May 12, 2022, 02:23:50 AM
Good, that should give Finland a bit of extra security while they go through the NATO joining process. And the same thing applies to Sweden.
Quote from: krummholz on May 12, 2022, 04:53:57 AM
+1
Yes. I'm feeling more secure now, but the following months are risky. Apparently Russia will close the natural gas lines to Finland tomorrow, so we need to figure out how to deal with that. :P
Quote from: 71 dB on May 12, 2022, 07:44:06 AM
Yes. I'm feeling more secure now, but the following months are risky. Apparently Russia will close the natural gas lines to Finland tomorrow, so we need to figure out how to deal with that. :P
I think that if Russia attacked Finland right now your nation alone, without any help, would inflict a crushing defeat on the Muscovites --- but such an attack is highly unlikely so cheer up. :D
The gas war, otoh...
Quote from: Florestan on May 12, 2022, 07:58:38 AM
I think that if Russia attacked Finland right now your nation alone, without any help, would inflict a crushing defeat on the Muscovites --- but such an attack is highly unlikely so cheer up. :D
The gas war, otoh...
Yes, it would be insane for Russia to attack at the moment, but it is a terror country doing insane things. What they are doing in Ukraine is completely insane. We can't rely on sanity anymore. That's why Finland and Sweden want to join NATO after the last few months. What else can you do when a country next to you has gone insane? ::)
In the long term there will be solutions to get rid of Russian energy, but in the short term there will be problems and challenges.
Sweden is very capable with a significant arms industry. They export weapons to the US. Thailand flies Gripens and so do the Czechs and several other countries. For a nation of 10 million people this is extraordinary. On a per capita basis they are in 4th place for weapons exports behind Israel, Russia and France.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 12, 2022, 08:11:34 AMIn the long term there will be solutions to get rid of Russian energy, but in the short term there will be problems and challenges.
Yes.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 12, 2022, 08:11:34 AM
That's why Finland and Sweden want to join NATO after the last few months. What else can you do when a country next to you has gone insane? ::)
I'm all in favor of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 11, 2022, 10:47:58 AM
Finland and UK sign joint security declaration
"We make these commitments to our friends in Finland not just because we can, but because we must," PM Johnson said in a press conference after meeting President Sauli Niinistö.
When asked about the Kremlin's thoughts on a possible Nato membership Niinistö denounced Russia's attempt to remove Finland and Sweden's agency over the decision.
"If the case is that we join well, my response [to Russia] would be that you caused this, look at the mirror," Niinistö said.
https://yle.fi/news/3-12441348
What a great response!
Quote from: Florestan on May 12, 2022, 09:26:02 AM
I'm all in favor of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
What benefit does it provide the US?
Quote from: drogulus on May 12, 2022, 08:31:14 AM
Sweden is very capable with a significant arms industry. They export weapons to the US. Thailand flies Gripens and so do the Czechs and several other countries. For a nation of 10 million people this is extraordinary. On a per capita basis they are in 4th place for weapons exports behind Israel, Russia and France.
The army itself is estimated as rather weak though, due to decades with cuts, but recent budgets will be gradually compensating for it. The navy and airforce is said to be better.
As a result of Sweden joining NATO, the most likely harassments from Russia are thought to be 1) cyber attacks 2) airspace intrusions etc. 3) stationing of more weapons/forces closer to Sweden, including nuclear, that might very well already be in the Kaliningrad enclave 4) propaganda and disinformation 5) poisonings and murders 6) military attacks, but considered unlikely.
Finland also thinks of possible, Russia-organized refugee invasions, etc.
As regards the increased Danish army budgets, things are expected to go slow, and the new wave of inflation might reduce the effect considerably. The new deployment of just a 1000-men strong and modern force in the Baltic republics, close to the border with Russia, is even said to put some strain on the army at home here.
The Finnish army is considered very strong, however - 280,000 plus 900,000 in reserve, with good training and equipment, etc.
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 12, 2022, 09:49:31 AMThe Finnish army is considered very strong, however.
Finland has about 22,000 active personnel. It has a small military. Add in reserves, and it looks better, but not much. Of course, all European countries other than France have small, ineffectual militaries that cannot project power on their own. The UK gains strength through its very close, so-called "special relationship" with the US.
Finland may be able to put up a decent resistance, especially if backed by the US, but Russia could level Helsinki whereas Finland could not level Moscow. Were there a war between the two, it would likely be a stalemate with most physical destruction in Finland and most civilian deaths in Finland.
It of course makes sense for Finland to want to join NATO, but it will become one more security consumer that US taxpayers have to pay to defend.
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 12, 2022, 09:49:31 AMThe Finnish army is considered very strong, however - 280,000 plus 900,000 in reserve, with good training and equipment, etc.
Finland does not currently have a 280K personnel military. That is its so-called wartime strength.
Quote from: Todd on May 12, 2022, 09:49:07 AM
What benefit does it provide the US?
First, NATO is currently an alliance of 30 countries. It's not about the US only.
Second, you should address that question to the White House, the Pentagon and the Congress, not to me, for it is they who will OK the expansion.
Quote from: Todd on May 12, 2022, 10:18:41 AM
Finland does not currently have a 280K personnel military. That is its so-called wartime strength.
And the issue at hand is precisely a Russian-Finnish war.
Thanks for defending Finland's military capabilities, but trying to make Todd see the light is pretty hopeless I am afraid. Luckily, Finland doesn't need Todd's approval.
Folks, always bear in mind that Todd is not a patriotic citizen of the US:
Quote from: Todd on March 19, 2022, 09:26:56 AM
...If you are trying to inquire about whether I would fight and die for the US, no, I would not. The US military would not want me to; I am well past the maximum enlistment age even for US Space Force. Perhaps if Chinese Special Forces invaded the suburbs of Portland and threatened to seize my Beethoven piano sonata collection I might dust off my Remington 11-48 and fight back with the ferocity of Comanche warriors, but in the real world, the US Air Force, US Navy, US Army, and US Marines would do the fighting for me.
Whenever Todd refers to " the US ", I'd suggest reading it as, " my wallet ". This will cut through his disingenuous efforts, and reveal his true meaning. ;)
Quote from: Todd on May 12, 2022, 10:01:26 AM
Russia could level Helsinki
If you mean nukes, you're right --- but then again they could level New York too so it's not very relevant. If you mean a strictly conventional war, right now it's very doubtful they could.
Quote from: Florestan on May 12, 2022, 10:33:50 AMFirst, NATO is currently an alliance of 30 countries. It's not about the US only.
The military effectiveness of NATO is totally reliant on US military capabilities and the US nuclear deterrent. You have posted in the past about the ineffectiveness of NATO absent US power. That has not changed.
Quote from: Florestan on May 12, 2022, 10:33:50 AMSecond, you should address that question to the White House, the Pentagon and the Congress, not to me, for it is they who will OK the expansion.
Since so many non-American board members are passionately devoted to expanding NATO, I am interested in knowing what the US will gain from expanding NATO by the members of this board who so eagerly want that to happen. So far no one has offered even one benefit.
Opinions of US policymakers are readily available and I am aware of hawkish rationales offered by various leaders.
Quote from: Florestan on May 12, 2022, 10:33:50 AMAnd the issue at hand is precisely a Russian-Finnish war.
There is no Russo-Finnish war. The so-called wartime strength of the Finnish military is an aspirational statement.
Quote from: Florestan on May 12, 2022, 11:49:01 AM
If you mean nukes, you're right --- but then again they could level New York too so it's not very relevant. If you mean a strictly conventional war, right now it's very doubtful they could.
No, Russia could rely on missile bombardment of Helsinki, and potentially naval bombardment, and slowly demolish the city, block by block, killing hundreds of thousands of Finns. Russia could not do that to New York.
Quote from: LKB on May 12, 2022, 11:21:40 AMFolks, always bear in mind that Todd is not a patriotic citizen of the US
Patriotism is very important to some people.
Quote from: Todd on May 12, 2022, 11:54:59 AM
The military effectiveness of NATO is totally reliant on US military capabilities and the US nuclear deterrent. You have posted in the past about the ineffectiveness of NATO absent US power. That has not changed.
Since so many non-American board members are passionately devoted to expanding NATO, I am interested in knowing what the US will gain from expanding NATO by the members of this board who so eagerly want that to happen. So far no one has offered even one benefit.
Opinions of US policymakers are readily available and I am aware of hawkish rationales offered by various leaders.
There is no Russo-Finnish war. The so-called wartime strength of the Finnish military is an aspirational statement.
No, Russia could rely on missile bombardment of Helsinki, and potentially naval bombardment, and slowly demolish the city, block by block, killing hundreds of thousands of Finns. Russia could not do that to New York.
Patriotism is very important to some people.
I give up. I really do.
Quote from: Florestan on May 12, 2022, 12:26:47 PM
I give up. I really do.
So did I a while back and added him to my ignore list. I see what he writes because people quote his posts.
So far NATO countries have been welcoming Finland to join and that's what counts.
Just glimpsing quotes of what Todd is saying reminds me that it must be a day ending in Y.
He must have been an absolute nightmare in group assignments.
The alliance system benefits the US. The US is the chief guarantor of the world wide economic system that it benefits from more than any other country. The US is unique in both its ability to defend it anywhere in the world but also the willingness to bear the greatest burden to do so. That has paid off in the current crisis.
Undoubtedly there are costs as well as benefits to allowing small countries to matter as much as they do. Some form of calculation might lead to leaving them out. however, I would maintain that even in the case where little clear strategic advantage is obtained it acts to give the world assurance that the system is run for the benefit of all and all may contribute.
It might have turned out that other countries would see the system as rigged against them. So far the US has managed to keep the members on side, in part by not being too demanding on contentious issue like Vietnam.
The US has accumulated huge institutional memory in how to keep the system optimally functional and fresh, so when Russia attacked Ukraine the massive job of coordinating an effective world wide response was partly done.
Even if nations don't have friends, the US has the next best thing, and it has lots of them all over the place. For a country that has lived by the concept of forward defense since its inception, having bases near any possible earthly threat is as good as it gets.
Defiant U.S. Senator Rand Paul stymies effort to pass $40 billion Ukraine aid bill (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defiant-us-senator-rand-paul-stymies-effort-pass-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-2022-05-12/)
Some fleeting good news. It is true, Rand Paul is demanding something outrageous and egregious:
Quote from: David MorganPaul is demanding that the legislation be altered to require an inspector general to oversee spending on Ukraine.
How
dare he. Ukraine and American defense contractors will end up with their handouts soon enough, so don't fret.
Quote from: Florestan on May 12, 2022, 07:58:38 AM
I think that if Russia attacked Finland right now your nation alone, without any help, would inflict a crushing defeat on the Muscovites --- but such an attack is highly unlikely so cheer up. :D
Yes, look how well Ukraine is resisting them.
Quote from: Todd on May 12, 2022, 02:32:24 PM
Defiant U.S. Senator Rand Paul stymies effort to pass $40 billion Ukraine aid bill (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defiant-us-senator-rand-paul-stymies-effort-pass-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-2022-05-12/)
Some fleeting good news. It is true, Rand Paul is demanding something outrageous and egregious:
How dare he. Ukraine and American defense contractors will end up with their handouts soon enough, so don't fret.
What would have happened if someone like Paul were elected instead of Trump? I don't like Paul but I always thought he was the real radical of the bunch. Paul vs. Sanders would have been it: two politicians with real conviction. Oops. That's probably for the other thread. Yeah, I can't imagine republicans or democrats will want accountability or transparency of any kind.
Not sure whether it's a desirable thing to have a 'real radical' lead a 350 million pop nation, plus the most powerful military in the world.
Quote from: Herman on May 13, 2022, 02:10:02 AM
Not sure whether it's a desirable thing to have a 'real radical' lead a 350 million pop nation, plus the most powerful military in the world.
Radical may be the wrong word. How about principled? I'd call Sanders that.
Quote from: LKB on May 12, 2022, 11:21:40 AM
Folks, always bear in mind that Todd is not a patriotic citizen of the US:
Whenever Todd refers to " the US ", I'd suggest reading it as, " my wallet ". This will cut through his disingenuous efforts, and reveal his true meaning. ;)
It's funny but I don't see any of Todd's comments as disingenuous. He's gotten my goat before but the accusation of dishonesty seems a strange one. He's brash. That's the long and short of it IMO. Again, IMO only, but I think people here might try to read his comments minus the brashness. It's just an opinion but never a disingenuous one or an unknowledgeable one. IMO. I certainly disagree a lot but I'm a little puzzled at the the level of annoyance everyone expresses. Yes, I've been there but I'm thinking how to be less sensitive, especially when none of these opinions are personal. They may be pompous, but pomposity isn't a personal attack. Why is everyone so sensitive re: Todd's opinions? Is it possible they're annoying precisely because, wrong or right though they may be, they're well-constructed arguments based on knowledge?
Alright. I'm done sticking my neck out for the pariah.
He frequently gives the impression of trolling, that's one reason why. Not this particular thread, but non-music threads in general. I mean, he once trolled me on the movies thread. Post after post designed for no other purpose than to irritate, ascribing views to me about a movie I explicitly stated I hadn't seen.
And then when it DOES appear to be a genuine opinion, it's as profoundly selfish as I've ever seen. More to the point it regularly demonstrates a complete incomprehension that relationships with others might (a) be useful, or (b) have value for their own sake.
Todd actively celebrates government breakdown and loss of structure. He shows no interest in the welfare of others in any way that I can recall. Almost every post is about whether there's something in a situation for him.
Quote from: Madiel on May 13, 2022, 02:52:03 AM
He frequently gives the impression of trolling, that's one reason why. Not this particular thread, but non-music threads in general. I mean, he once trolled me on the movies thread. Post after post designed for no other purpose than to irritate, ascribing views to me about a movie I explicitly stated I hadn't seen.
And then when it DOES appear to be a genuine opinion, it's as profoundly selfish as I've ever seen. More to the point it regularly demonstrates a complete incomprehension that relationships with others might (a) be useful, or (b) have value for their own sake.
Todd actively celebrates government breakdown and loss of structure. He shows no interest in the welfare of others in any way that I can recall. Almost every post is about whether there's something in a situation for him.
I'll just leave the first part of it aside because I don't know about it and you've a right to your feelings about that personal experience. As for the the stuff pertaining to his views here, I see it differently. I also often disagree but I don't see the comments as expressions of selfishness and I don't particularly see anything trollish here. There have been a lot of arguments in the political thread and I don't remember them off-hand. It may be he has had that effect there, as you say. But, for here, I see it as legitimate to argue that - what shall we call it? - the non-intervention standpoint or the libertarian standpoint - is about what good actually comes from being the "world cop" or that picking and choosing winners and losers in the world may often cause blowback or harmful consequences, or that ulterior motives tend to drive hawkishness, or the that liberals want to have their cake and eat it too, that they're hypocritical, etc. He argues his positions with facts and I don't see these positions as obviously dishonest and, in fact, he often seems to have a great grasp of history and economic and political reality. I'm not saying I agree with him. I notice how he disappeared right at January 6th, obviously (it seems) because he could no longer argue the trump case.
Just my take but I think the arguments for smaller governments are legitimate arguments that have to be engaged. What people do around here (too much IMO when it comes to Todd) is scoff and bandwagon. It worries me when people have such an easy time scoffing over providing arguments. I think anyone can ignore any comment they wish. But I think we shouldn't be easy on ourselves when it comes to our positions and arguments.
I didn't talk about smaller government. I talked about the breakdown of government. There's a difference.
HOLY FUCK!!
Todd was right! Finland won't become a member of NATO! Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is against it! ???
What happens to us now? ???
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 05:01:39 AM
HOLY FUCK!!
Todd was right! Finland won't become a member of NATO! Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is against it! ???
What happens to us now? ???
It's because of his anti-Kurdish policies, where at least Sweden is more liberal towards the Kurds.There'll probably be some sort of payment solution for Turkey, one way or the other, making him accept (but only grudgingly, of course).
Quote from: milk on May 12, 2022, 11:41:07 PMWhat would have happened if someone like Paul were elected instead of Trump? I don't like Paul but I always thought he was the real radical of the bunch. Paul vs. Sanders would have been it: two politicians with real conviction.
Rand Paul has less of a chance of becoming president than his father did, which means he has precisely no chance. Sanders never had a chance. Sticking strictly to foreign policy, if another non-interventionist is elected - Trump was as close to a non-interventionist as has been elected since the 1920s - not much would change, at least quickly. A non-interventionist with conviction could pull the US out of more international agreements, but the president does not have unilateral power to withdraw from treaties, or at least no one is certain what would happen if the president did unilaterally make such a move. Legal and political challenges would be certain, immediate, well organized, and very well funded. The president could begin the political process of exiting NATO - so the world could see just how effective the 29 member organization could be absent US power - but that's a political non-starter. True non-interventionists would most likely not focus their political energies on foreign policy, focusing on domestic matters. NATO and other security relationships would be attended to by others. That was actually one of the beauties of the last administration - it left many diplomatic roles empty for years. We need more of that. Benign neglect is not enough; active disruption is required. Even that will not suffice unless the US elects multiple non-interventionist administrations in a short period of time. Institutional interests - the military-industrial complex, if you will - work against the president when interests are threatened.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 05:01:39 AMFinland won't become a member of NATO! Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is against it! ???
What happens to us now? ???
Anyone who has been reading any decent news sources has known that Erdoğan has opposed NATO expansion since the idea was floated. What happens now is negotiation to learn Erdoğan's price. I will hope against hope that Erdoğan is a man of conviction when it comes to stopping NATO expansion.
Quote from: milk on May 13, 2022, 03:45:14 AMWhat people do around here is scoff and bandwagon.
Most people prefer echo chambers. That is not unique to this site.
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 13, 2022, 05:23:01 AM
It's because of his anti-Kurdish policies, where at least Sweden is more liberal towards the Kurds.There'll probably be some sort of payment solution for Turkey, one way or the other, making him accept (but only grudgingly, of course).
I bet half of NATO-countries if not more are "liberal towards the Kurds", or is the Netherlands and Norway oppressing the Kurds? Not to my knowledge!
I hate this fucking World so much! Finland wants to be in peace and now this shitshow is escalatinn into if the Kurds are threaded too well in the World! Fuck this shit! Why is Turkey in NATO? It doesn't share the Western values of other NATO countries, at least anymore. Can it be kicked out?
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 05:52:23 AMWhy is Turkey in NATO? It doesn't share the Western values of other NATO countries, at least anymore. Can it be kicked out?
This type of sentiment warms my heart.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 05:52:23 AM
I bet half of NATO-countries if not more are "liberal towards the Kurds", or is the Netherlands and Norway oppressing the Kurds? Not to my knowledge!
I hate this fucking World so much! Finland wants to be in peace and now this shitshow is escalatinn into if the Kurds are threaded too well in the World! Fuck this shit! Why is Turkey in NATO? It doesn't share the Western values of other NATO countries, at least anymore. Can it be kicked out?
I quite agree wit a lot of what you are saying; it's also a matter of Erdogan using the subject domestically, and as a negotiation asset in general.
Turkey is a pretty important player in the region, also regarding the Ukraine war. For example it has closed the access to the Black Sea for any further Russian war ships going there. But it also imports a lot of Russian gas, and Russian tourists are very important for its vacation industry, so Turkey is one of the few ~European countries that has maintained direct flights to Russian cities. On the other hand, Turkey also has sympathy for the Muslim Crimean Tatars, that suffered from the Russian invasion of Crimea - a subject that hasn't been dealt enough with by the international media.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 12, 2022, 12:51:10 PM
So did I a while back and added him to my ignore list.
I'm not going to ignore Todd. His posts about music are substantial and interesting.
EDIT: and I agree both (1) with milk that Todd is knowledgeable and honest, and (2) with Madiel that sometimes he seems like trolling. :D
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 06:11:02 AM
I'm not going to ignore Todd. His posts about music are substantial and interesting.
Yes, but it is a price I have to pay tp protect my sanity. Life has become intolerable even without him. Fortunately we have plenty of other member around making substantial and interesting posts.
All I can do is listen to J.S.Bach's cantatas and pray it makes me forget abotu Ukraine/Russia/NATO/Turkey for a moment! :P
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 05:01:39 AM
HOLY FUCK!!
Todd was right! Finland won't become a member of NATO! Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is against it! ???
What happens to us now? ???
Finland is in. They want in, and NATO wants them in. The formalities will be sorted out.
The F-35 is not only a plane. If you fly it you're in a network with allied countries. It's almost like a country is renting a plane and a software package from NATO. A few countries have decided not to acquire the F-35 for precisely that reason.
Quote from: milk on May 12, 2022, 11:41:07 PM
What would have happened if someone like Paul were elected instead of Trump? I don't like Paul but I always thought he was the real radical of the bunch. Paul vs. Sanders would have been it: two politicians with real conviction. Oops. That's probably for the other thread. Yeah, I can't imagine republicans or democrats will want accountability or transparency of any kind.
Bernie Sanders won't ever get further than he has thus far at the national level. Rightly or wrongly, mainstream Americans won't ever really trust anyone that far left.
Rand Paul is an anti-vaxxer, a Trump supporter ( though not invariably ), and a frequent guest on serial liar and conspiracy wacknut Alex Jones'
Infowars program. I guess he wanted some attention, hasn't been in the news much lately. In any event, that Ukranian aid package will get through, Paul's obstructionist posturing notwithstanding.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 05:52:23 AM
I bet half of NATO-countries if not more are "liberal towards the Kurds", or is the Netherlands and Norway oppressing the Kurds? Not to my knowledge!
I hate this fucking World so much! Finland wants to be in peace and now this shitshow is escalatinn into if the Kurds are threaded too well in the World! Fuck this shit! Why is Turkey in NATO? It doesn't share the Western values of other NATO countries, at least anymore. Can it be kicked out?
Calm down, my friend. Erdogan is just signalling that he wants something in return for his agreement to NATO expansion. What exactly, we will see. You can bet he will eventually accept it, if grudgingly.
As for Turkey's NATO membership, its strategic geographical location makes it a key member of the alliance, and the fact that they have good relationships both with Ukraine (remember Bayraktar drones?) and Russia is an asset which makes them even more important. I dare say Turkey will play an important, maybe crucial role, when true peace talks will begin.
Prepare for the disappearance of Russia (https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3483799-prepare-for-the-disappearance-of-russia/)
Quote from: Alexander MotylAnd yet, it's [Russia's collapse] perfectly possible, possibly even probable. And the sooner the West starts thinking about what a Russian collapse will look like, the better — not because there is much we can do to stop it, but because it will have earth-shattering consequences for the world.
Phrase of the day for today:
earth-shattering consequences for the world
Quote from: Todd on May 13, 2022, 06:48:37 AM
Prepare for the disappearance of Russia (https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3483799-prepare-for-the-disappearance-of-russia/)
It's saddening and maddening that a Rutgers University professor can utter such nonsense.
I think Florestan is on track here. Erdogan will have a price, which will pave the way for some haggling. Since the Russian Bear has been revealed to be somewhat impotent, he probably won't be overly concerned about their reaction once he flips.
Russia disappearing?
Balls.
Putin disappearing?
Much more likely.
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 06:54:31 AM
It's saddening and maddening that a Rutgers University professor can utter such nonsense.
The US has thousands of universities, each with gobs of professors hankering to get published. Sometimes, some of the writings are not very good. Substitute "almost all the time" for "sometimes" if you wish.
Quote from: Todd on May 13, 2022, 07:00:13 AM
The US has thousands of universities, each with gobs of professors hankering to get published. Sometimes, some of the writings are not very good. Substitute "almost all the time" for "sometimes" if you wish.
Well, okay, but still... The disappearance of Russia as we know it? What does that mean?
People's Republic of Moscow breaking away form the Russian Federation?
The Federal Republic of St. Petersburg and Baltica following suit and applying for EU and NATO membership?
The Vladivostok Free State asking to be annexed by China? :laugh:
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 06:30:33 AM
Calm down, my friend.
I'm trying! ;) I'm easily shocked by things I read/see/hear and it takes me days of "processing the information" to get over it and possibly calm down.
NATO is
SUPER-hot topic in Finland and Sweden right now. My father even said today we have gone insane because of NATO fever. This certainly is insane... ...my mental health was MUCH better 3 months ago. Finland celebrated the Olympic Gold in Ice Hockey. Then a week later Russia attacked Ukraine and the panicked run toward NATO started... :P
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 07:21:50 AM
I'm trying! ;) I'm easily shocked by things I read/see/hear and it takes me days of "processing the information" to get over it and possibly calm down.
NATO is SUPER-hot topic in Finland and Sweden right now. My father even said today we have gone insane because of NATO fever. This certainly is insane... ...my mental health was MUCH better 3 months ago. Finland celebrated the Olympic Gold in Ice Hockey. Then a week later Russia attacked Ukraine and the panicked run toward NATO started... :P
NATO or not, you're safe. Russia will not attack you (militarily, that is). All the aggressive talk on Russian TV channels is just propaganda for domestic consumption.
Panicked run towards NATO?
It hardly seems that way to this non-Finn. The war is over two months old, and right from the start the Finnish and Swedish PMs ( and, more recently, Finland's President ) have presented their unified, methodical and unhurried deliberations with admirable simplicity. No hand-waving, shouting or pleading in evidence, just as it should be.
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 07:26:51 AM
NATO or not, you're safe. Russia will not attack you (militarily, that is). All the aggressive talk on Russian TV stations is just propaganda for domestic consumption.
Exactamente.
Quote from: LKB on May 13, 2022, 07:39:12 AM
Panicked run towards NATO?
It hardly seems that way to this non-Finn. The war is over two months old, and right from the start the Finnish and Swedish PMs ( and, more recently, Finland's President) have presented their unified, methodical and unhurried deliberations with admirable simplicity. No hand-waving, shouting or pleading in evidence, just as it should be.
In reality, there's been cooperation and exercises with NATO for many years. Crimea 2014 also accentuated it.
Here's an example, 2016: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_06/20160615_1606-factsheet_exercises_en.pdf
(COLD RESPONSE, RAMSTEIN ALLOY, FLAMING SWORD, BALTOP 16).
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 13, 2022, 07:43:40 AM
In reality, there's been cooperation and exercises with NATO for many years. Crimea 2014 also accentuated it.
Precisely. Sweden too.
Instead of denouncing NATO's aggressive expansion, Russia should ask why is it that each and every Central / Eastern European nation who were once their subjects or puppet states joined NATO as soon as they could. Are we all Central / Eastern Europeans just a bunch of irrational and hysterical Russophobes?
I said it in the past and I will always say it: Russia's complaining about the Baltic States, Poland and Romania joining NATO is exactly like an inveterate rapist's complaining about his former victims being put under 24/7 police protection.
Quote from: LKB on May 13, 2022, 07:39:12 AM
Panicked run towards NATO?
It hardly seems that way to this non-Finn. The war is over two months old, and right from the start the Finnish and Swedish PMs ( and, more recently, Finland's President ) have presented their unified, methodical and unhurried deliberations with admirable simplicity. No hand-waving, shouting or pleading in evidence, just as it should be.
This is panic in Nordic style. Of course the politicians act calm, while the the media has been in panic mode. Something like 32 % of Finns supported joining NATO just 3 months ago. Now 76 % support it! That's how much the war in Ukraine has affected the thinking of us Finns. We have lost ALL trust in (and respect for) Russia. The relationship between Finland and Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) has been built on mutual TRUST with careful diplomacy. That's why this new situation is completely new for us.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 07:55:13 AM
This is panic in Nordic style. Of course the politicians act calm, while the the media has been in panic mode. Something like 32 % of Finns supported joining NATO just 3 months ago. Now 76 % support it! That's how much the war in Ukraine has affected the thinking of us Finns. We have lost ALL trust in (and respect for) Russia. The relationship between Finland and Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) has been built on mutual TRUST with careful diplomacy. That's why this new situation is completely new for us.
.
Of course, a perfectly reasonable and rational set of reactions...
not panic. 8)
Quote from: LKB on May 13, 2022, 08:07:57 AM
.
Of course, a perfectly reasonable and rational set of reactions... not panic. 8)
I slept really badly last night. I am tired and easily irritated. That's why Erdogan's message hit me really hard. Unfortunately bad news don't come only when I have slept well and mentally strong to deal with it. It is a vicious cycle: Bad news make me sleep worse and when I am tired the bad news affect me even stronger. That's why I have not slept well in months... ...I hope I can sleep well again when Finland is officially in NATO, but thanks to Turkey it can take a year they say. Life sucks...
At least Italy has expressed strong support for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 08:18:15 AM
I hope I can sleep well again when Finland is officially in NATO, but thanks to Turkey it can take a year. Life sucks...
Turkey is a beautiful country and the Turks are very nice and friendly people. You should take a trip there. ;)
As I indicated F-35ly, Finland and Sweden are "interoperable" with NATO forces.
That's a fact. Some facts are on pieces of paper you can read, other are not. Finland and Sweden anchor the Baltic and Arctic regions. Due to climate change the Arctic gets more important every year.
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 08:23:11 AM
Turkey is a beautiful country and the Turks are very nice and friendly people. You should take a trip there. ;)
Leaders of a country do not always represent well the people. One of my former working pal was from Turkey. One the the smartests and nicests people I have ever known! 0:)
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 08:23:11 AM
Turkey is a beautiful country and the Turks are very nice and friendly people. You should take a trip there. ;)
Yeah, well, that's just......
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/7bmxfKn7_c8/hq720.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEcCOgCEMoBSFXyq4qpAw4IARUAAIhCGAFwAcABBg==&rs=AOn4CLAuDFOf81HCnpMIW8DRbOkLub7AzQ)
The Turks love cats. They are very OK.
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 07:19:38 AM
Well, okay, but still... The disappearance of Russia as we know it? What does that mean? People's Republic of Moscow breaking away form the Russian Federation? The Federal Republic of St. Petersburg and Baltica following suit and applying for EU and NATO membership? The Vladivostok Free State asking to be annexed by China? :laugh:
The article means nothing. I view it as equivalent to a comic strip, except that the article actually resulted in some laughs.
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 07:54:42 AMInstead of denouncing NATO's aggressive expansion, Russia should ask why is it that each and every Central / Eastern European nation who were once their subjects or puppet states joined NATO as soon as they could. Are we all Central / Eastern Europeans just a bunch of irrational and hysterical Russophobes?
And the US should ask why non-Russian Europe is not entirely responsible for its own defense and what benefits the US receives from expanding NATO.
Now the war is distorting Eurovision. After the invasion of Crimea the Ukrainian entry was REALLY good and a deserved winner. This time... well it's okay but not amazing, and an overwhelming betting favourite.
What? This is a music message board.
Quote from: Madiel on May 13, 2022, 08:41:06 AM
Now the war is distorting Eurovision. After the invasion of Crimea the Ukrainian entry was REALLY good and a deserved winner. This time... well it's okay but not amazing, and an overwhelming betting favourite.
What? This is a music message board.
Is Eurovision still alive? ???
Seriously now, the final is tomorrow, right? In the Czech Republic if I'm not mistaken? Well, I bet that good or bad, Ukraine will win. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 08:47:52 AM
Is Eurovision still alive? ???
Of course! Now even the US has their own copy of it!
I know Finland's song by Rasmus (hard to avoid), but otherwise I ignore the contest completely.
Quote from: Todd on May 13, 2022, 08:40:34 AM
...And the US should ask why non-Russian Europe is not entirely responsible for its own defense and what benefits the US receives from expanding NATO.
You're seemingly either a) being intentionally obtuse or b) trolling.
Quote from: LKB on May 13, 2022, 09:27:08 AM
You're seemingly either a) being intentionally obtuse or b) trolling.
Or neither one of those.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 08:18:15 AM
I slept really badly last night. I am tired and easily irritated. That's why Erdogan's message hit me really hard. Unfortunately bad news don't come only when I have slept well and mentally strong to deal with it. It is a vicious cycle: Bad news make me sleep worse and when I am tired the bad news affect me even stronger. That's why I have not slept well in months... ...I hope I can sleep well again when Finland is officially in NATO, but thanks to Turkey it can take a year they say. Life sucks...
At least Italy has expressed strong support for Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
I am sympathetic towards the sleep- challenged, as I've been among their number since l became homeless in 2017. Once l was back on my feet in 2018, my sleep remained fractured, and l am now averaging between 2.5 and 4 hours daily most of the time. Once or twice a month I'll manage 6+ hours, which feels great.
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 08:47:52 AM
Is Eurovision still alive? ???
Seriously now, the final is tomorrow, right? In the Czech Republic if I'm not mistaken? Well, I bet that good or bad, Ukraine will win. ;D
It's in Italy. I could be wrong but I don't think it's ever been in the Czech Republic.
Of course there's a glaring question of whether Ukraine would be able to host next year if/when they win.
Fresh news:
The US will ask Turkey to explain why they oppose Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on May 13, 2022, 10:20:14 AMIf the UK is at war with you, you are at war with NATO.
It is very unlikely that the UK would take any large-scale action without buy-in from the US. Also, it is not clear what great military benefits are provided to Sweden and Finland in this agreement. The UK, when partnered with France, was entirely incapable of managing a sustained bombing campaign in Libya. Taking on Russia, even in its current state, is far more challenging. The agreement is blustery political theater aimed at sending a message which the Russians will disregard.
The UK, through the JEF, has proven effective in sending weapons to Ukraine to keep the proxy war going.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on May 13, 2022, 10:20:14 AM
Frankly, I don't think it matters any longer whether Finland or Sweden are 'officially' in NATO or not. The UK has signed a mutual defense pact with them: you invade one, the UK is now at war with you. If the UK is at war with you, you are at war with NATO.
I rather think that was the point of the recent defence pacts: they are effectively 'in' and the legalese can follow in due course.
The mutual defence pact is certainly great, but frankly I don't trust the UK 100 % at the moment. The UK seems a confused nation after years of Tory austerity policy and xenophobia-based populism.
Quote from: LKB on May 13, 2022, 09:37:08 AM
I am sympathetic towards the sleep- challenged, as I've been among their number since l became homeless in 2017. Once l was back on my feet in 2018, my sleep remained fractured, and l am now averaging between 2.5 and 4 hours daily most of the time. Once or twice a month I'll manage 6+ hours, which feels great.
I think your sleeping problems have been much worse than mine. I sleep enough hours, but it is bad heavy sleep and my heart is restless and pumping fast. I see very strong vivid dreams (I almost never see real nightmares, but these dreams have heavy stressful atmosphere). That's why I don't feel well-rested after even 9 hours of sleep and I am tired almost all the time. The only good thing is I haven't been experiencing panic attacks. Those are really nasty! I suffered from panic attacks a few years ago for more or less unknown reason.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 10:52:40 AM
Fresh news:
The US will ask Turkey to explain why they oppose Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
They host Kurds who are considered to be terrorists.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on May 13, 2022, 10:20:14 AM
Frankly, I don't think it matters any longer whether Finland or Sweden are 'officially' in NATO or not. The UK has signed a mutual defense pact with them: you invade one, the UK is now at war with you. If the UK is at war with you, you are at war with NATO.
I rather think that was the point of the recent defence pacts: they are effectively 'in' and the legalese can follow in due course.
You're right. They are in with the in crowd.
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 06:11:02 AM
I'm not going to ignore Todd. His posts about music are substantial and interesting.
In a music thread, you can choose to read his posts.
I do not, but one can.
I don't see how it is in the US interest to defend Belarus. (http://forums.mozillazine.org/images/smilies/new_vampv.gif)
Lukashenko is starting to crack. Now he's praising the Ukes and says he hopes his military learns from them. I shit you not.
Quote from: Todd on May 13, 2022, 05:30:04 AM
Rand Paul has less of a chance of becoming president than his father did, which means he has precisely no chance. Sanders never had a chance.
A lot of people said the same about Trump in the early days of the (first election's) primaries.
Quote from: drogulus on May 13, 2022, 07:36:23 PM
I don't see how it is the US interest to defend Belarus. (http://forums.mozillazine.org/images/smilies/new_vampv.gif)
Lukashenko is starting to crack. Now he's praising the Ukes and says he hopes his military learns from them. I shit you not.
Lukashenko was already cautious enough not to get his army actively involved in the invasion.
Now he is fearing for his own skin.
If the Belarusian opposition ever wants to plan a regime change, now might be the time....
Would be another huge blow for Putin. Instead of rebuilding and expanding Russia's sphere of influence, his actions have accelerated its decline.
Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-military-intelligence-chief-optimistic-of-russian-defeat-saying-war-will-be-over-by-end-of-year-12612320#)
BTW The rumours that Putin is terminally ill with cancer are growing stronger by the week.
Not that he will pass any moment now, but it would explain his state of mind and self isolation.
Quote from: milk on May 13, 2022, 08:44:42 PM
A lot of people said the same about Trump in the early days of the (first election's) primaries.
Yes, but Trump has various advantages over Paul. Everyone laughed in 2015 because everyone knew who Trump was. That type of name recognition was a gargantuan benefit. He has a superior stage presence and far more charisma than Paul, and Trump wasn't burdened by an actual Senatorial record that includes things like voting against emergency relief aid for Americans. Also, the press abetted the former president by providing unparalleled coverage/free campaign exposure that Paul would never get - Trump generated ratings and clicks that Paul could not.
That Paul could be considered some type of threat indicates how distorted and militarized US foreign policy has become. Paul wants to avoid war and reduce US involvement in the world, and he wants to reduce the amount of money lavished on the military. Tom Cotton is more
dangerous. He is extremely intelligent and obscenely hawkish. Fortunately, unless Cotton hires much, much better handlers, he cannot win the White House. A silver-tongued Tom Cotton is the risk to watch out for. She's out there somewhere.
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2022, 04:38:06 AM
Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief 'optimistic' of Russian defeat saying war 'will be over by end of year' (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-military-intelligence-chief-optimistic-of-russian-defeat-saying-war-will-be-over-by-end-of-year-12612320#)
BTW The rumours that Putin is terminally ill with cancer are growing stronger by the week.
Not that he will pass any moment now, but it would explain his state of mind and self isolation.
Rosy Ukrainian prognostications and gossip may not serve as a sound basis for assessing the geopolitical reality of the war.
Fresh news: Ibrahim Kalin, the spokesperson for president Erdogan says Turkey won't block Sweden and Finland from getting into NATO, but Turkey wants to negotiate with Sweden and Finland about the necessity to curb terroristic activity especially in Stockholm that compromises the security of Turkey.
I am too stupid myself to understand this terroristic activity aspect. I was so ignorant I didn't even know Turkey will have this much relevance in this game, but now I will learn. I am also more relaxed today after the shock yesterday.
McConnell leads delegation of Republican senators to Kyiv (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/14/mcconnell-republican-senators-kyiv-00032534)
Cocaine Mitch rides again.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 14, 2022, 05:40:54 AM
Fresh news: Ibrahim Kalin, the spokesperson for president Erdogan says Turkey won't block Sweden and Finland from getting into NATO, but Turkey wants to negotiate with Sweden and Finland about the necessity to curb terroristic activity especially in Stockholm that compromises the security of Turkey.
What did I tell you yesterday?
Quote from: Florestan on May 14, 2022, 05:49:16 AM
What did I tell you yesterday?
You have experienced your country joining NATO so you know how it goes. For me this is all new... ;)
Quote from: Todd on May 14, 2022, 04:52:00 AM
Rosy Ukrainian prognostications and gossip may not serve as a sound basis for assessing the geopolitical reality of the war.
It is, obviously, more than just "gossip". These rumours come from intelligence circles and (former) members of Putin's inner circle.
But just as with the "rosy" prognostications, that untill now have beaten the predicted doom and gloom of the naysayers again and again, time will tell.
Meanwhile on the battle field Russia continues to lose ground and battles, and that's a fact.
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2022, 06:52:42 AMIt is, obviously, more than just "gossip". These rumours come from intelligence circles and (former) members of Putin's inner circle.
It is the very definition of gossip. Small tidbits of information, some possibly true and some likely not, with end readers unable to divine the facts, and with end readers unaware of the agendas of all of the sources of information. It is standard wartime propaganda.
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2022, 06:52:42 AMBut just as with the"rosy" prognostications, that untill now have beaten the predicted doom and gloom of the naysayers again and again, time will tell.
The war has been going on for eight years. One needs to define what defeat means, and what it means for this war to be over. When one sees that the person being interviewed uses a phrase like "[Russia] is a horde of people with weapons", one questions how dispassionate the analysis and statements may be. It is standard wartime propaganda.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged his Russian counterpart Friday to consider a cease-fire in Ukraine during the first discussion between the two leaders since the Russian invasion began nearly three months ago, the Pentagon said.
Austin had not connected with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu since Feb. 18 — six days before Russia commenced its assault on Ukraine — despite repeated attempts by U.S. officials to do so, said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon. The two men spoke for about an hour, and the official characterized their conversation as "professional," but declined to detail what was said.
Opinion The time is now to plan for the aftermath of war in Ukraine
By David Ignatius
Columnist
Many months of brutal fighting lay ahead in Europe and the Pacific when the United States gathered its partners at Bretton Woods, N.H., in July 1944 to plan the global order that would follow World War II. The Allies knew what institutions the world would need — the future International Monetary Fund, World Bank and United Nations — even before they could see the final victory.
The United States and its NATO partners need to show similar creative imagination now as the war in Ukraine grinds on. The West's leaders may not be able to describe just how or when the awful battle will end, but they know the building blocks of the future: security, prosperity, law and order, democracy. And they can begin the reconstruction process now, even while the fighting still rages.
The world will eventually celebrate a final Ukrainian victory and the expulsion of the last Russian invader. But that could be years, even decades, away. We aren't going to see a peace treaty signed on the battleship Missouri any time soon. For a long while, Ukraine is likely to be a partially divided country, with Russian troops across what's likely to be a hot cease-fire line.
This stalemate and separation would be cruel. But as Ukrainians plan for the next few years, they should consider the examples of South Korea and West Germany — which became wildly successful democracies in the shadow of unfinished wars and despotic adversaries.
Strategic patience will be a weapon, along with Ukraine's fierce defiance. The West should make clear that it will refuse any formal recognition of Russian sovereignty in territory it has seized — just as the United States for generations refused to recognize Soviet control of the Baltic states. Eventually, it will come right.
For now, the goal for Ukraine and its NATO allies should be to contain the Russian offensive within southeastern Ukraine, push Putin's forces back where possible, and make this war too painful for Russia to continue indefinitely. The latest U.S. intelligence reports suggest this is an achievable goal, but one that carries risks for both Ukraine and its allies.
Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, provided a clear summary of current U.S. assessments during Senate testimony on Tuesday. The Ukraine battle "is developing into a war of attrition," she explained. Putin still wants to dominate Kyiv and control all of Ukraine's Black Sea coast. But he lacks the conventional military power to achieve these aims. This "mismatch" between his ambitions and capabilities could produce "a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory," she said.
The shape of Europe is moving inexorably against Putin because of the folly of his invasion. Finland applied on Thursday to join NATO, and it will likely be followed by Sweden. The Russian foreign ministry threatened "retaliatory steps" against this NATO expansion, and former president Dmitry Medvedev warned darkly that the military squeeze on Russia could be eventually pose a "risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war."
This is scare talk. "We believe that Moscow continues to use nuclear rhetoric to deter the United States and the West from increasing lethal aid to Ukraine," Haines said, warning that Moscow could turn up the volume by staging nuclear exercises with ICBMs, bombers and submarines.
Britain is offering Finland and Sweden a defense pact on the way to NATO membership, and when I asked British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on Thursday whether that meant a "nuclear umbrella," he didn't say no.
Reconstruction should begin now in Ukraine, even as the war continues. President Volodymyr Zelensky has published an online menu for reconstruction, United24. Western nations should begin pledging to meet those requests.
The eventual bill for this war will be immense. A Ukrainian official told me on Wednesday that the eventual cost will exceed $500 billion, according to estimates prepared by the Kyiv School of Economics. The U.S. Agency for International Development and other global agencies are already pumping in billions in humanitarian and other assistance.
This reconstruction process eventually must include Russia, too, paradoxical as that may sound. It won't happen soon. Alexander Gabuev, a senior analyst at the Carnegie Center in Moscow who recently left Russia, told me Thursday that a large majority of Russia supports Vladimir Putin's war. Russia sadly is heading the way of Iran, becoming an outcast, sanctioned nation. But it won't stay that way forever. Eventually, said Gabuev, "there will be a spark."
George Robertson, a former NATO secretary general, shared with me comments that Putin made at NATO's summit with Russia in Rome in 2002. Recalling Russia's long isolation in the Cold War, Putin observed: "Nothing good came of that confrontation between us and the rest of the world. We certainly gained nothing by it." How right he was.
Even as the war continues in Ukraine, I hope President Biden will keep repeating the message: "The Russian people are not our enemy." The United States must continue to illuminate an eventual path of return. Someday, an exhausted, traumatized Russia will come in from the cold.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 14, 2022, 05:40:54 AM
Fresh news: Ibrahim Kalin, the spokesperson for president Erdogan says Turkey won't block Sweden and Finland from getting into NATO, but Turkey wants to negotiate with Sweden and Finland about the necessity to curb terroristic activity especially in Stockholm that compromises the security of Turkey.
I am too stupid myself to understand this terroristic activity aspect. I was so ignorant I didn't even know Turkey will have this much relevance in this game, but now I will learn. I am also more relaxed today after the shock yesterday.
My guess is that "terroristic activity" refers to Syrians, Kurds, anti-Erdogan Turks, and anyone else Erdogan doesn't like, and that a realistic description wouldn't use the adjective "terroristic".
'Let Someone Whack You': Russian Troops Are Now Deliberately Wounding Themselves to Get Out of Putin's War
Russia has committed its best troops and equipment to the Ukraine invasion (and many worst ones as well). As I am pro rather than contrarian it seems likely that the planes and tanks Russia has in reserve are no better than what is being used now, and probably in worse shape. An exception would be the SU-57 Felon stealth fighter which exists in small numbers. It may have been used in Ukraine but I think the Russians are afraid it will be shot down, so Russia is even more reluctant to fly it into danger than they are with their air force generally.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on May 14, 2022, 07:23:37 AM
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged his Russian counterpart Friday to consider a cease-fire in Ukraine during the first discussion between the two leaders since the Russian invasion began nearly three months ago, the Pentagon said.
Austin had not connected with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu since Feb. 18 — six days before Russia commenced its assault on Ukraine — despite repeated attempts by U.S. officials to do so, said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon. The two men spoke for about an hour, and the official characterized their conversation as "professional," but declined to detail what was said.
Let me speculate. Shoigu has not been taking calls from Austin since Feb. 18. The spec part is that the Baku meeting was to arrange for the call to take place.
Intelligence chiefs don't give interviews to deliver objective truth to readers. The job of the reader is to divine what objective truth makes such an assessment plausible. If it's just a bunch of propagandistic hogwash it won't fly.
Budanov said:
"The breaking point will be in the second part of August.
"Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year.
"As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea."
Why say this now? The results of the battle of Kharkiv has established the template for future battles. The Ukes can now outrange the Russian artillery and with greater accuracy, too. Furthermore, though the US has not announced that the most advanced artillery ammunition has been sent, it has been.
The horde comment might refer to the lack of proper command and control which is kind of obvious, though it might be seen as naughty to put it that bluntly.
Quote from: JBS on May 14, 2022, 07:39:50 AM
My guess is that "terroristic activity" refers to Syrians, Kurds, anti-Erdogan Turks, and anyone else Erdogan doesn't like, and that a realistic description wouldn't use the adjective "terroristic".
It's just obfuscated code:
" Let's meet and work out how you'll compensate me for not standing between you and NATO. "
Quote from: LKB on May 14, 2022, 08:54:55 AM
It's just obfuscated code:
" Let's meet and work out how you'll compensate me for not standing between you and NATO. "
Of course. It's standard diplomacy. ;D
The Chinese ambassador to Ukraine gave a talk to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. It's now censored, but it said:
I. Russia's position in the Russia-Ukraine war has became increasingly passive and unfavorable. Its coming defeat is already clear.
The main reasons why Russia is now heading towards defeat are:
Russia has been declining ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline that is first of all a continuation of the pre-dissolution Soviet Union. It is also related to the failures of the internal and external policies of the Russian ruling clique. This process has been exacerbated by Western economic sanctions which have damaged sectors of the Russian economy. The so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under Putin's leadership is false; it simply does not exist. Russia's decline is evident in its economic, military, technological, political, and social spheres, and has had a serious negative impact on the Russian military and its war effort.
The failure of the Russian blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Russian defeat. The Russian military's economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Russian army's poverty-driven defeat was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war is delayed is a heavy burden for Russia.
Russian military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Russia and the U.S. and other NATO countries in the areas of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.
Modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information. Russia is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally. It is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.
Russia can no longer decide when and how the war will end. Russia is trying to end the war as soon as possible so it can hold on to what it has gained. This has failed. In this sense, Russia has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.
There's more, but that's enough for now. Xi can't be happy with what was said and the speech was taken down hours after it appeared online. I maintain that evaluating what Ukrainian intelligence says in interviews must be measured against assessments from other perspectives. The view from China is helpful.
The speech is available here:
https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/rethinking-ukraine-in-china/
It is entirely possible that a former Chinese diplomat presented something without permission. It is also possible that the offending content was presented and then censored purposely. Whatever the case, the following bit seems more than a little suspect:
Quote from: Gao Yusheng as published in the Asia TimesBeware a rearmed Japan. Mao and Deng welcomed the US in Asia to put a lid on Japanese ambitions/fears. Now, this lid has been removed and we are about to face a belligerent Tokyo, something we have dreaded for a long time.
Why, that seems like the perfect rationale to take action in the Diaoyu Islands sooner rather than later.
Also telling is this from the full English translation:
Quote from: Gao YushengThe U.S. and other countries will push hard for substantive reform of the UN and other important international organizations. If they are blocked, they may also start a new one. Both may exclude some countries, such as Russia, by drawing ideological lines of so-called independence.
Hmm.
Quote from: drogulus on May 14, 2022, 08:24:10 AM
Intelligence chiefs don't give interviews to deliver objective truth to readers. The job of the reader is to divine what objective truth makes such an assessment plausible. If it's just a bunch of propagandistic hogwash it won't fly.
Absolutely. Of course it's propaganda.
But some degree of truth will give it credibility and will make it all the more effective.
Quote from: drogulus on May 14, 2022, 09:11:36 AM
[ snip] Xi can't be happy with what was said and the speech was taken down hours after it appeared online.
It is quite possible that Xi meant both the reveal and the ceremonial suppression.
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2022, 10:09:27 AMBut some degree of truth will give it credibility and will make it all the more effective.
How do end readers divine truth?
Of course, facts are better than truth.
Quote from: Que on May 14, 2022, 10:09:27 AM
Absolutely. Of course it's propaganda.
But some degree of truth will give it credibility and will make it all the more effective.
The timing is revealing IMO. No such announcement was made until after the collapse of the Russians at Kharkiv.
Here's a question for the Big Brain Brigade. Should the Ukes cross the border, or should they restrict themselves to air and artillery strikes?
Russian buildings are catching fire as far away as Irkutsk. That's near Mongolia.
Quote from: drogulus on May 14, 2022, 12:40:06 PM
Russian buildings are catching fire as far away as Irkutsk. That's near Mongolia.
What I think is that these fires are caused not by Ukes but by Russian partisans.
If this is so, this points to heavy trouble also in Russia.
Quote from: (: premont :) on May 14, 2022, 03:51:10 PM
What I think is that these fires are caused not by Ukes but by Russian partisans.
If this is so, this points to heavy trouble also in Russia.
According to various Intel people over the years, Putin once blew up 300 Russians to frame Chechnya. These incidents around Russia could likewise be FSB activity, to stoke domestic support for the invasion.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 13, 2022, 12:10:08 PM
The mutual defence pact is certainly great, but frankly I don't trust the UK 100 % at the moment. The UK seems a confused nation after years of Tory austerity policy and xenophobia-based populism.
Don't worry, the xenophobia-based populism will work in Finland's favour. ;)
Quote from: drogulus on May 14, 2022, 12:40:06 PM
Russian buildings are catching fire as far away as Irkutsk. That's near Mongolia.
Russia is a very large place. So chances are there's a building burning down every day, some place.
It doesn't have to be significantly connected to the UK - RU conflict.
I'm with Herman on this one. Who was France at war with when Notre Dame burned? Fires happen for a huge variety of reasons, and the great majority of them have no connection to politics.
The fires have to large extent hit strategic targets, a fact which talks against the thought that they should be casual. And some of them took place so far from Ukaine that the Ukes can't be involved. And I refrain from thinking that Putin deliberately should destruct important strategic places so far from Ukraine. Nobody would think the Ukes were responsible for this, anyway.
The location mentioned did not appear to be a strategic target unless I missed something. It was a historic building.
Edit: and also reportedly empty. Honestly, I cant think of a better place for a fire than an empty old building, especially if there were repairs underway. I already mentioned Notre Dame.
If someone can explain to me the strategic value of a cultural building in Irkutsk I'd be fascinated. Although if the HQ if the Russian war effort was all the way over there, it would explain some things.
Quote from: Madiel on May 15, 2022, 02:05:30 AM
The location mentioned did not appear to be a strategic target unless I missed something. It was a historic building.
Here is a Danish article about an unexplained fire in a strategic place near Moskva, which you may read. For other readers not understanding Danish Google translate does miracles.
https://www.berlingske.dk/internationalt/17-doede-i-brand-paa-russisk-militaerinstitut
Yes, but that wasn't the location immediately under discussion. I can see why that story you've linked to is a LOT more interesting.
But even there, it could really be an electrical fault like the Russians said. Such things happen.
I'm pleased to hear the Eurovision voters gave Ukraine first place this year. :)
Quote from: Madiel on May 15, 2022, 05:29:56 AM
Yes, but that wasn't the location immediately under discussion. I can see why that story you've linked to is a LOT more interesting.
But even there, it could really be an electrical fault like the Russians said. Such things happen.
All the fires can't be just accidents. For example there's been fires at 11 army recruitment offices in Russia recently.
Quote from: Madiel on May 15, 2022, 02:05:30 AM
If someone can explain to me the strategic value of a cultural building in Irkutsk I'd be fascinated.
Russia is trying to wipe out Ukrainian cultural landmarks. So it would be tit for tat.
Nevertheless the Irkutsk fire might be unrelated.
Looks like Finland will apply to NATO membership next Wednesday after the Parliament* has voted for it the previous day to make this process as democratic and "by the book" as possible. Many NATO countries welcome Finland to join and some even compete to be the first to ratify the application, but then there's Turkey with its demands...
* 156 out of 200 representatives in the Parliament support NATO membership while only about 10 are opposing it so the result of the voting is clear.
Quote from: steve ridgway on May 14, 2022, 10:14:09 PM
Don't worry, the xenophobia-based populism will work in Finland's favour. ;)
I can't see how... :P
Quote from: 71 dB on May 15, 2022, 07:38:04 AM
I can't see how... :P
I think Scandinavian countries are generally seen here as nice, friendly, clean, civilised places where one needn't fear the police. In fact we're probably a little jealous.
Quote from: steve ridgway on May 15, 2022, 09:38:30 AM
I think Scandinavian countries are generally seen here as nice, friendly, clean, civilised places where one needn't fear the police. In fact we're probably a little jealous.
That's cool. (Finland isn't actually part of
Scandinavia even if people often think it is. Finland is part of
Fennoscandia and
Nordic countries)
Quote from: steve ridgway on May 15, 2022, 09:38:30 AMI think Scandinavian countries are generally seen here as nice, friendly, clean, civilised places where one needn't fear the police.
Research: Finnish police discriminate, racially profile (https://yle.fi/news/3-11388585)
New clashes over anti-immigration rally in Sweden (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220417-new-clashes-over-anti-immigration-rally-in-sweden)
Denmark has some issues. Let's play spot the egregiously racist government policies:
Danish parliament approves plan to seize assets from refugees (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/26/danish-parliament-approves-plan-to-seize-assets-from-refugees)
Denmark asylum: The Syrian refugees no longer welcome to stay (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57156835)
Denmark Won't Take Away Ukrainians' Assets Under 'Jewellery Law'. All About the Rule & the Spcl Relief (https://www.news18.com/news/world/ukrainian-refugees-likely-to-be-saved-from-denmarks-jewellery-law-assets-wont-be-confiscated-as-neighbours-first-4840958.html)
Danish cops are probably super nice, though.
Norway seems to be a little less racist than the other Scandinavian countries.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 15, 2022, 09:58:17 AM
That's cool. (Finland isn't actually part of Scandinavia even if people often think it is. Finland is part of Fennoscandia and Nordic countries)
It's a long discussion. Among English speakers, including for example Lonely Planet Guides, Scandinavia often includes Finland, maybe Iceland. But I've never experienced anyone changing their mind.
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 15, 2022, 10:08:34 AM
It's a long discussion. Among English speakers, including for example Lonely Planet Guides, Scandinavia often includes Finland, maybe Iceland. But I've never experienced anyone changing their mind.
Yes, but we Finns don't say we are part of Scandinavia. English speakers when speaking to Finns should keep this in mind if they wish to be courteous. "A nordic country" is the best and easiest expression to use to refer Finland. Keeps Finns happy. ;)
Quote from: Florestan on May 13, 2022, 08:47:52 AM
Is Eurovision still alive? ???
Seriously now, the final is tomorrow, right? In the Czech Republic if I'm not mistaken? Well, I bet that good or bad, Ukraine will win. ;D
I stayed up to 1.00am to watch it - it has a macabre fascination. I became interested when my daughter was working for MSF in Kyiv in 2017 when Eurovision was last hosted there (will it be next year I wonder?). She watched it on a big screen in a park and we exchanged text-messages with our views on the songs. What was most amazing was that the UK came second. I liked the Netherlands entry as well as the Ukrainian one and thought that the UK song was much better than usual. The support for Ukraine was very moving and I'm glad that they won.
I started a Eurovision thread some years ago but can't locate it now.
Quote from: vandermolen on May 15, 2022, 10:58:01 AM
I started a Eurovision thread some years ago but can't locate it now.
https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,27004.0.html
Quote from: vandermolen on May 15, 2022, 10:58:01 AM
I stayed up to 1.00am to watch it - it has a macabre fascination. I became interested when my daughter was working for MSF in Kyiv in 2017 when Eurovision was last hosted there (will it be next year I wonder?). She watched it on a big screen in a park and we exchanged text-messages with our views on the songs. What was most amazing was that the UK came second. I liked the Netherlands entry as well as the Ukrainian one and thought that the UK song was much better than usual. The support for Ukraine was very moving and I'm glad that they won.
I started a Eurovision thread some years ago but can't locate it now.
I used to watch Eurovision when I was young (80's, early 90's) but I got tired of the whole thing. Some years I have checked what kind of songs there are, but usually only about 10 % the the songs are what I consider decent/good. I don't was patience to find out what the good 10 % is so I ignored it all. All the hype around the competition is also intolerable.
Congratulations to the UK for the second place! Without the war in Ukraine the UK might have won!
Quote from: Que on May 15, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,27004.0.html (https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,27004.0.html)
For good or ill, Eurovision inevitably puts me in mind of Monty Python:
https://www.youtube.com/v/rEQo-1NunSA
"Sing, Little Birdie!"
It was not a vintage year in my opinion. And yes I watch every year. There are a handful of outstanding pop songs I've encountered as a result.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 15, 2022, 11:15:42 AM
Congratulations to the UK for the second place! Without the war in Ukraine the UK might have won!
Yes the rest must have got over Brexit. ;D
Quote from: Que on May 15, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,27004.0.html
Thank you!
Quote from: steve ridgway on May 15, 2022, 09:18:50 PM
Yes the rest must have got over Brexit. ;D
Yes, I think that you may be right Steve (I've now revived, thanks to Que, the Eurovision thread if anyone wants to comment further).
The news here is suggesting that Russian cyber-attack plans on Eurovision were thwarted by Italian internet security.
Quote from: vandermolen on May 16, 2022, 12:20:27 AM
The news here is suggesting that Russian cyber-attack plans on Eurovision were thwarted by Italian internet security.
Good to hear that Russia is encouraging people to take security seriously. When I worked I often had that feeling of impending doom regarding the subject.
Analysis: Neutral Switzerland leans closer to NATO in response to Russia (https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/neutral-switzerland-leans-closer-nato-response-russia-2022-05-15/)
Erdogan says Swedish, Finnish delegations should not bother coming to Turkey (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-says-swedish-finnish-delegations-should-not-bother-coming-turkey-2022-05-16/)
If The New Yorker counts as a reliable source, Russia is building a nuclear reactor in Turkey which when completed will generate around 10% of the country's electricity. Looks like Turkey's price for NATO expansion might be pretty high.
Quote from: Todd on May 16, 2022, 10:24:28 AM
Erdogan says Swedish, Finnish delegations should not bother coming to Turkey (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-says-swedish-finnish-delegations-should-not-bother-coming-turkey-2022-05-16/)
If The New Yorker counts as a reliable source, Russia is building a nuclear reactor in Turkey which when completed will generate around 10% of the country's electricity. Looks like Turkey's price for NATO expansion might be pretty high.
Would you trust Russia with building a nuclear plant?
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on May 16, 2022, 01:54:59 PM
Would you trust Russia with building a nuclear plant?
If I had to make a decision for the country of Turkey, sure. Russia is the fourth largest producer of nuclear power in the world. I do not have details of the deal, but I suspect the reactor is a newer commercial design. A French reactor may be preferable, but given political realities, Turkey may have limited options, meaning Russia or China. The ghost of Chernobyl does not frighten me. I am guessing that it what is implied in your question, but maybe not. Though the information I have seen does not indicate it is a concern, I also suspect that Turkey is keeping open the option of developing nuclear weapons to enhance its stature in the greater Middle East. If so, Russian know-how could be very helpful. It is unlikely that Western countries, meaning of course the US and France and the UK, would be keen on sharing this information. Perhaps the Chinese would be helpful in this regard. Pakistan may be as well, but they seem like a lesser choice in this field. It seems unlikely that India would partner with Turkey.
Russian anti air is weakening and Uke Flankers are flying more. They attacked Snake Island a few days ago. A drone had already knocked out the missile air defense.
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2022/05/08/8731727861590216062/640x360_MP4_8731727861590216062.mp4
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on May 16, 2022, 01:54:59 PM
Would you trust Russia with building a nuclear plant?
As a matter of fact a Russian nuclear plant "Hanhikivi 1" delivered by Rosatom was planned in Finland and some preliminary work has even taken place, but the war in Ukraine stopped those plans. Even before this many warned about the risks of Russian nuclear power.
My question is: why would Russia want to help Turkey to be less dependent on Russian gas? ;D
I see the rest of Scandinavia have said they'll support Finland and Sweden if they come under attack.
Newsweek is a reputable corporate press outlet:
Is Putin Dead? Pay Attention When Russia Starts Broadcasting 'Swan Lake' (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-dead-pay-attention-when-russia-starts-broadcasting-swan-lake-1707162)
Quote from: Todd on May 17, 2022, 04:53:51 AM
Newsweek is a reputable corporate press outlet:
Is Putin Dead? Pay Attention When Russia Starts Broadcasting 'Swan Lake' (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-dead-pay-attention-when-russia-starts-broadcasting-swan-lake-1707162)
Quite so, back in 1991 my father-in-law was queueing for cheese on Tverskaya street in Moscow when a column of tanks rumbled down the street towards the Kremlin. When he got home, Swan Lake was on the tele.
It's one of the reasons I'm not a Swan Lake fan.
Finnish parliament voted to support NATO membership 188 - 8.
The Minister of foreign affairs Pekka Haavisto has signed the application today. It will be delivered to Jens Stoltenberg tomorrow Wednesday together with the application of Sweden.
India won't buy Russian KA-31 copters, a $1B deal. There are a couple of problems, one being difficulty in making payments to Russia, and another that India doesn't think Russia will be able to deliver the order.
The way I see it is India is the only quasi-ally that isn't a decrepit or useless "Stan". Chinese support is mostly rhetorical, and it's clear they are more vulnerable to sanctions in the near term than the Russians. The Chinese would prefer to circle the bowl slowly and not quickly.
The meeting of the Stans:
(https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1220,w_2169,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_1044/fl_lossy,q_auto/v1652727115/Screen_Shot_2022-05-16_at_2.48.47_PM_dldg0i)
No representation from MAGAstan?
Greek's leader tells Congress democracy is tested by Russia (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-government-and-politics-united-states-middle-east-e8da7cbe8053f0b8678011d5956c949d)
Should I be worried about this headline?
Fertile ground for conspiracy (and other theorists).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222
Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV
Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.
It was an extraordinary piece of television.
The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.
The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.
But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.
He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".
The article concludes:
So what happened on 60 Minutes? Was this a spontaneous, unprompted and unexpected wake-up call on Ukraine that slipped through the net?
Or was it a pre-planned burst of reality in order to prepare the Russian public for negative news on the progress of the "special military operation"?
It's difficult to say. But as they say on the telly, stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.
Quote from: T. D. on May 17, 2022, 11:44:42 AMFor a start, they don't even call it a war.
That's old hat. Euphemisms like "police action", "peacekeeping operation", "humanitarian intervention", and my favorite because of its budgetary implications, "overseas contingency operation" are used with no little frequency. Some are barely even covered by the western press.
Quote from: T. D. on May 17, 2022, 11:44:42 AM
Fertile ground for conspiracy (and other theorists).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61484222
Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV
Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.
It was an extraordinary piece of television.
The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.
The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.
But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.
He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".
The article concludes:
So what happened on 60 Minutes? Was this a spontaneous, unprompted and unexpected wake-up call on Ukraine that slipped through the net?
Or was it a pre-planned burst of reality in order to prepare the Russian public for negative news on the progress of the "special military operation"?
It's difficult to say. But as they say on the telly, stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.
I saw that. The hostess tried to push back with drivel about evil Brits and friendly China and India. Another thing that's happening is that several Russian war bloggers embedded with the troops have started posting very negative information. Together they have millions of followers on Telegram. I've seen translations of a few of their messages and it's even harsher than what the Colonel said on
60 Minutes.
As many as 30,000,000 Russians are developing Big Brains!
How millions of Russians are tearing holes in the Digital Iron Curtain (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/06/russia-vpn-putin-censorship-disinformation/)
Daily downloads in Russia of the 10 most popular VPNs jumped from below 15,000 just before the war to as many as 475,000 in March. As of this week, downloads were continuing at a rate of nearly 300,000 a day, according to data compiled for The Washington Post by the analytics firm Apptopia, which relies on information from apps, public data and an algorithm to come up with estimates.
Russian clients typically download multiple VPNs, but the data suggests millions of new users per month. In early April, Russian telecom operator Yota reported that the number of VPN users was over 50 times as high as in January, according to the Tass state news service.
They could see everything! They could see the Big Board!
Now the arm wrestling with Turkey begins... :P
Russia's January-April current account surplus more than triples to $96 billion (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-jan-april-current-account-surplus-more-than-triples-96-bln-2022-05-16/)
Some people just can't stop buying Russian hydrocarbons. Europeans are helping fund Russia's war against a European country to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. Such a dramatic shift in the current account surplus means that the sanctions are working in that imports have dropped and regular citizens are taking the hit. Which is of course the plan. (Russians should count their lucky stars they are not Afghanis.) But the Europeans have their own plan now:
EU rushes out $300 billion roadmap to ditch Russian energy (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-climate-ursula-von-der-leyen-european-union-fca230025ac78905c3d025701ae30900)
The article is light on specifics, but all indications are that this is a multi-year process. So expect Europeans to continue to partially underwrite the war against Europe for a while longer. It must be asked, why can't Europeans go big? $300 billion is peanuts in the global energy game. Peanuts. The IPCC previously estimated that $3 trillion per year through 2050 is needed to transform to renewable energy, which is very much part of the new emergency package. (https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11102018/ipcc-clean-energy-transformation-cost-trillion-climate-change-global-warming-renewable-coal-fossil-fuels/#:~:text=That%20transformation%20will%20require%20a,to%202050%2C%20the%20IPCC%20says.) While obviously other programs are underway all over the world, and while Europe represents only a portion of energy consumption, why can't Europe - the wealthiest, highest income part of the world - show the rest of the world how to expedite the transition? Why not push for, say, $500 billion/year or $1 trillion/year in this time of severe crisis? I thought the Russo-Ukrainian war was the most urgent crisis in the world right now. Europe should treat it as such.
I did a thing! Now I'm in Kyiv, or my VPN says so. If I was a Big Brained Russian I could locate there, too.
I know there are explanations out in explanationland for the difficulty of blocking VPNs. Supposedly VPNs are hard to block when all the servers are outside the country. My service is one of the most popular in Russia and I note I can't locate to Moscow.
WTF? I'm trying to get back to NY and I ended up in Nuremberg. Now I'm in Rhode Island. That's close enough.
Yesterday: Asia-bound Biden gets welcome news on Russia-China trade (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/18/asia-bound-biden-gets-welcome-news-russia-china-trade/)
Today: China in Talks With Russia to Buy Oil for Strategic Reserves (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/china-in-talks-with-russia-to-buy-oil-for-strategic-reserves)
Reuters: Erdogan set to speak with Finnish leaders on Saturday.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 20, 2022, 08:29:43 AM
Reuters: Erdogan set to speak with Finnish leaders on Saturday.
I have to admire Finnish leaders for having the stomach to meet with that petty tyrant.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on May 20, 2022, 09:06:36 AM
I have to admire Finnish leaders for having the stomach to meet with that petty tyrant.
Erdogan is a paper tiger for Finns. He will learn the best scissors in the World (Fiskars) come from Finland. 0:) ✂️
Quote from: 71 dB on May 20, 2022, 09:29:46 AM
Erdogan is a paper tiger for Finns. He will learn the best scissors in the World (Fiskars) come from Finland. 0:) ✂️
Well, he still has veto power. It remains to be seen how to get around that if he has unreasonable demands. It seems like Finland and Sweden are de-factor members even if not official members.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on May 20, 2022, 09:40:15 AM
Well, he still has veto power. It remains to be seen how to get around that if he has unreasonable demands. It seems like Finland and Sweden are de-factor members even if not official members.
Using veto power has its consequences. Sweden and Finland have more friends than enemies. Turkey risks making other NATO countries angry.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 20, 2022, 10:01:39 AM
Using veto power has its consequences. Sweden and Finland have more friends than enemies. Turkey risks making other NATO countries angry.
Yes. You have to be an idiot autocrat in your own echo-chamber to make claims like "Sweden and Finland can't join NATO because they support terrorism."
Turkey has some leverage: it controls the Straits of Dardanelles and Bosphorus.
https://www.firstpost.com/world/explained-importance-bosphorus-and-dardanelles-straits-in-russia-ukraine-conflict-and-turkeys-role-10412751.html
Quote from: Spotted Horses on May 20, 2022, 10:07:33 AM
Yes. You have to be an idiot autocrat in your own echo-chamber to make claims like "Sweden and Finland can't join NATO because they support terrorism."
Turkey defines terrorism completely differently than Sweden and Finland. What Turkey calls supporting terrorism, we here in the Nordic call protection of human rights.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 20, 2022, 11:21:04 AM
Turkey defines terrorism completely differently than Sweden and Finland. What Turkey calls supporting terrorism, we here in the Nordic call protection of human rights.
It would cost Finland nothing in the grand scheme of things to give the PKK a dirty look while still supporting unaffiliated Kurdish groups.
Anyway, they're in. NATO defense does not wait for the paperwork.
Quote from: T. D. on May 20, 2022, 11:02:51 AMTurkey has some leverage
Turkey has the second largest army in NATO. White Europeans live in an alternate reality. White people generally live in an alternate reality. The 2030s will be very hard on white people generally.
Quote from: Todd on May 20, 2022, 05:20:29 PM
White people generally live in an alternate reality.
This whole thread is out of order.
Quote from: Todd on May 20, 2022, 05:20:29 PM
Turkey has the second largest army in NATO. White Europeans live in an alternate reality. White people generally live in an alternate reality. The 2030s will be very hard on white people generally.
Many, if not most, of the Turks are virtually indistinguishable from White Europeans. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on May 20, 2022, 11:55:19 PM
Many, if not most, of the Turks are virtually indistinguishable from White Europeans. ;D
yeah, I'm a little surprised at hearing people in Turkey are universally PoC.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 20, 2022, 11:21:04 AM
Turkey defines terrorism completely differently than Sweden and Finland. What Turkey calls supporting terrorism, we here in the Nordic call protection of human rights.
. +1 Anybody opposing Erdogan is a terrorist in Gurkey.
Quote from: Todd on May 20, 2022, 05:20:29 PM
Turkey has the second largest army in NATO....
What part of that army is required to maintain the regime domestically?
The supply of Russian natural gas to Finland has ended on Saturday. Finland leases floating LNG terminal for this reason.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on May 21, 2022, 04:01:32 AM
What part of that army is required to maintain the regime domestically?
I'm not sure. I seem to recall that only a few years ago there was an attempted coup, real or staged, so I am not sure of the current state of relations between Erdoğan and the military leadership. Western press reports portray Erdoğan as a traditional strongman, and one with an Islamist bent - which I believe means he is therefore more bad than he otherwise would be - so I would think he has a firm grasp on the military and can use it to support the government, as has been done from time to time. Perhaps that is not the case.
Whatever portion of the military is used to quell internal strife and prop up the government, the fact is that Turkey is a regional power with military forces deployed in the Middle East and Africa, and in the Balkans. Turkey is willing to take sides opposing both the US (in Syria) and Russia (in Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine) yet works with both. It not only possesses a powerful military but it is becoming a significant weapons manufacturer, making land based systems, submarines, and the now famous and celebrated Bayraktar drones (see some of the laudatory posts in this thread, for instance), manufactured by Baykar, which is run by Mr Bayraktar, who also happens to be Erdoğan's son-in-law.
Given Turkey's critical strategic location, it is essential that the US maintain some type of good working relationship with the country. It seems less likely as time passes that the US will be able to freely engage in regime change - whether of the 1950s Iran variety or 2000s Iraq variety - so it will have to work with the leadership. I'd say Turkey alone is more strategically valuable than all countries added to NATO since 1991, but right now we have to pretend otherwise.
Not being privy to any negotiations currently underway to add more security consuming members to NATO in a manner that satisfies Turkey, I would think that US negotiators are at least potentially discussing a more concrete objective that Turkey has been openly pursuing, along with whatever "terrorism" related issues it may have with Sweden and Finland. Specifically, Turkey wants full access to US systems, starting with the F35, which the US has used as a cudgel, and rightly and understandably so. Turkey wants both US and Russian advanced systems, and it just may get them.
Ukraine's EU Application Is Splitting Europe in Two (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-european-union-application-splitting-europe-two-russia-germany-france-1708524)
Quote from: David BrennanDutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has said there is "no such thing as a fast track;" French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier this month that membership could take "decades;" while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this week there "is no shortcut on the road to EU membership."
If Mr Brennan's article is accurate, this makes for a wonderful bit of news to go with the perfect sunny weather around these parts today.
Quote from: Todd on May 21, 2022, 10:17:40 AM
Ukraine's EU Application Is Splitting Europe in Two (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-european-union-application-splitting-europe-two-russia-germany-france-1708524)
If Mr Brennan's article is accurate, this makes for a wonderful bit of news to go with the perfect sunny weather around these parts today.
The title is misleading. The bulk of the article deals exactly with the fact that the Big Three made it clear there will be a long process and the rest just accepted it tacitly and not very grudgingly --- iow, no split, at least not in the celebratory sense you'd like it to be. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 10:26:14 AM
The title is misleading. The bulk of the article deals exactly with the fact that the Big Three made it clear there will be a long process and the rest just accepted it tacitly and not very grudgingly --- iow, no split, at least not in the celebratory sense you'd like it to be. ;D
Yes, I read the article, and it does in fact explain how Europe is split. That is delightful. The trick is to somehow use the standard bureaucratic delay to drive a wedge into Europe and hopefully destroy the EU. Maintaining sclerotic bureaucratic roadblocks is good for now, as is eurosquabbling.
Quote from: Todd on May 21, 2022, 11:20:03 AM
Europe is split. That is delightful. The trick is to somehow use the standard bureaucratic delay to drive a wedge into Europe and hopefully destroy the EU.
Putin himself couldn't have put it better. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 11:22:53 AM
Putin himself couldn't have put it better. ;D
Godwin's Law is ripe for an update.
Some time ago, our friend from the Pacific Northwest kept saying that European posters had no business opining on US politics, and now he'll not waste any chance to post his biased views on what's happening this side of the Atlantic (as he has his own axe to grind). Cosas veredes, amigo Sancho....
Quote from: Todd on May 21, 2022, 11:29:48 AM
Godwin's Law is ripe for an update.
Why, is it my fault if you sound exactly like Russian propaganda? ;D
Quote from: ritter on May 21, 2022, 11:32:34 AM
Some time ago, our friend from the Pacific Northwest kept saying that European posters had no business opining on US politics, and now he'll not waste any chance to post his biased views on what's happening this side of the Atlantic (as he has his own axe to grind). Cosas veredes, amigo Sancho....
Ayyup.
Quote from: ritter on May 21, 2022, 11:32:34 AM
Some time ago, our friend from the Pacific Northwest kept saying that European posters had no business opining on US politics, and now he'll not waste any chance to post his biased views on what's happening this side of the Atlantic (as he has his own axe to grind). Cosas veredes, amigo Sancho....
The fundamental difference is that Europe relies on US taxpayer money, American military power, and potentially putting the lives of American soldiers at risk to defend countries of varying levels of value and usefulness. Were Europeans to handle European security matters themselves, or if all European "partners" would act in good faith and actually live up to their treaty obligations, it would be different.
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 11:37:15 AM
Why, is it my fault if you sound exactly like Russian propaganda? ;D
Meh.
Quote from: ritter on May 21, 2022, 11:32:34 AM
Some time ago, our friend from the Pacific Northwest kept saying that European posters had no business opining on US politics, and now he'll not waste any chance to post his biased views on what's happening this side of the Atlantic
Quod licet Iovi non licet bovi. ;)
Quote from: Todd on May 21, 2022, 11:39:48 AM
The fundamental difference is that Europe relies on US taxpayer money, American military power, and potentially putting the lives of American soldiers at risk to defend countries of varying levels of value and usefulness.
I've said it before, I say it again: this is a complaint you should lay at the doors of the White House, the Congress and the Pentagon --- not of us European GMGers. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 11:48:15 AM
I've said it before, I say it again: this is a complaint you should lay at the doors of the White House, the Congress and the Pentagon. Even better, write your Congressman. ;D
I voted in last week's primary.
In addition, I would say that every European member of this forum who lives in a country that shamefully fails to live up to its obligations should contact their government and demand that appropriate action be taken. I suspect that will not occur.
Quote from: Todd on May 21, 2022, 11:39:48 AM
if all European "partners" would act in good faith and actually live up to their treaty obligations, it would be different.
Trump said all NATO European countries were obliged by the treaty to allocate 2% of their GDP to military/defence spendings. Romania allocates 2.5% to exactly that purpose. Do we receive your stamp of approval? If no, why not?
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 11:53:11 AM
Trump said all NATO European countries were obliged by the treaty to allocate 2% of their GDP on military/defence spendings. Romania allocates 2.5% to exactly that purpose. Do we receive your stamp of approval? If no, why not?
It has nothing to do with Trump. NATO members agreed to 2006 to devote 2% of GDP to defense spending. Most failed to do so. They agreed in 2014 to reach the goal by 2024. The Russo-Ukrainian War may end up leading to this outcome. (jk) Some countries like Romania meet their obligations, and for that such members deserve kudos. Romania deserves kudos. That does not make Romania as important an ally as Turkey or France or the UK. Not even close.
Quote from: Todd on May 21, 2022, 12:01:44 PM
It has nothing to do with Trump. NATO members agreed to 2006 to devote 2% of GDP to defense spending. Most failed to do so. They agreed in 2014 to reach the goal by 2024. The Russo-Ukrainian War may end up leading to this outcome. (jk) Some countries like Romania meet their obligations, and for that such members deserve kudos. Romania deserves kudos. That does not make Romania as important an ally as Turkey or France or the UK. Not even close.
Moving the goal post once again. If the treaty obligations were met, the things would be different. The treaty obligations are met, the things are still not different. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 12:07:07 PM
Moving the goal post once again. If the treaty obligations were met, the things would be different. The treaty obligations are met, the things are still not different. ;D
Romania deserves kudos for meeting its obligations. Romania should not be part of NATO.
Quote from: Todd on May 21, 2022, 12:11:42 PM
Romania deserves kudos for meeting its obligations. Romania should not be part of NATO.
Well, Romania is part of NATO and will remain so until Judgment Day. Get over it, my
friend ally! :P
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 12:14:40 PMWell, Romania is part and parcel of NATO and will remain so until Judgment Day.
That is very highly unlikely. No international system lasts forever. The current one will be no exception.
Quote from: Todd on May 21, 2022, 12:17:14 PM
That is very highly unlikely. No international system lasts forever. The current one will be no exception.
"Until Judgment Day" is a figure of speech equivalent to "for the remainder of our lifetime" --- I am greatly surprised that such a fine analyst of the slightest nuance(s) in piano playing like you is unable to decypher them in plain and prosaic English speech.
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 12:20:26 PM
"Until Judgment Day" is a figure of speech equivalent to "for the remainder of our lifetime" --- I am greatly surprised that such a fine analyst of the slightest nuance(s) in piano playing like you is unable to decypher them in plain and prosaic English speech.
Personalizing.
I see Todd's lunatic posts because people keep quoting his ramblings.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 21, 2022, 01:38:57 PM
[Todd's] own shithole country
This is rude and uncalled for,
Poju.
Really, my friend --- your nation have just applied for membership to an alliance formed and led by what you call a shithole country.
Watch your mouth!
Quote from: Florestan on May 21, 2022, 01:48:04 PM
This is rude and uncalled for, Poju.
Really, my friend --- your nation have just applied for membership to an alliance formed and led by what you call a shithole country.
Watch your mouth!
Yes, it is rude! I am tired of him running his mouth like americans were so special. At least you live in a NATO country. I have to wait God knows how many months thanks to Turkey for this shit to finally end. Don't quote his posts. That's how I don't see them.
Finnish media is all about "Will Russia attack Finland?" How am I supposed to know if that is just idiotic clickbate journalism or something that can happen? I want to sleep well. NATO helps with that.
To Todd: We don't want US tax money. We want peace.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 21, 2022, 02:57:48 PMTo Todd: We don't want US tax money. We want peace.
Which requires US taxpayer money and military power. Facts can be hard to accept.
The US spends US dollars on defense of the US. Since the US needs to defend the world economy all over the world to defend itself it requires allies and bases everywhere.
The responsibility falls foremost on the country with the means and the motivation. The US is massively endowed with both.
Taxpayers gain hugely from the ROI in defense. Right now it's about 3.4% of GDP. Consider also that defense dollars percolate through the economy just like other dollars do. We fukin' pay ourselves for our defense, and much of what we spend defending allies comes back to us, too, and much of it never leaves the country.
Who said the business of America is business? Well, the business of defending the world is good business, and we pay ourselves well to conduct it.
Quote from: drogulus on May 21, 2022, 07:05:44 PM
Who said the business of America is business? Well, the business of defending the world is good business, and we pay ourselves well to conduct it.
Absolutely. The US contributes to the defence of others in order to protect its economic interests and its global hegemony.
It's just a good investment - there is nothing altruistic about it. Some decisions are delusional and downright madness, like invading Iraq. But don't blame the Europeans for that - they didn't vote for it, nor did they ask for it.
Now the power of the US is waning, Europe needs to step up. And it will. Wishing for the downfall of the European Union, or the US federal government, is not going to help very much.
Agree. Here in DK we'll have a referendum on the 1st of June about joining the EU defense collaboration, likely to be voted yes for.
Quote from: Todd on May 20, 2022, 05:20:29 PM
Turkey has the second largest army in NATO. White Europeans live in an alternate reality. White people generally live in an alternate reality. The 2030s will be very hard on white people generally.
I'm not sure how the debatable strenght of the Turkish army, the end of white ethnocentrism (supremacy) in the US and Europe and the pending crises in the 2030's are linked....
In the years to come we'll see a severe climate crisis, an economic crisis, a food (and water) crisis and a major geopolitical crisis all in one. Times will be (very) hard for anyone, but
particularly for poor regions and nations and for poor people in any nation whatever the colour of their skin.
Quote from: Que on May 22, 2022, 12:40:43 AM
In the years to come we'll see a severe climate crisis, an economic crisis, a food (and water) crisis and a major geopolitical crisis all in one. Times will be (very) hard for anyone, but particularly for poor regions and nations and for poor people in any nation whatever the colour of their skin.
It sucks to be on this planet, doesn't it? Maybe somewhere millions of lightyears away there is a planet where the leaders are actually competent to address the problems intelligently while not creating unnecessary new problems. It is painful to watch what happens on our planet unable to do much about it. We where not out of Covid-19 pandemic and Russia had to attack Ukraine. Now they write about Monkey Pox, whatever that is. WTF?
Quote from: 71 dB on May 22, 2022, 03:01:37 AM
It sucks to be on this planet, doesn't it? Maybe somewhere millions of lightyears away there is a planet where the leaders are actually competent to address the problems intelligently while not creating unnecessary new problems. It is painful to watch what happens on our planet unable to do much about it. We where not out of Covid-19 pandemic and Russia had to attack Ukraine. Now they write about Monkey Pox, whatever that is. WTF?
What is monkey pox?
Another oncoming epidemic. Has that name in English.
Quote from: Que on May 22, 2022, 12:02:39 AMIt's just a good investment
That is one of the most debatable aspects of US foreign policy. The US has devoted trillions of dollars to defending others, and finding any type of cost-benefit analysis is basically impossible. Certain, specific interests benefit mightily, that cannot be denied, but move beyond those corporate and institutional interests and into the general population, and the benefits become hazy at best.
Quote from: Que on May 22, 2022, 12:40:43 AM
I'm not sure how the debatable strenght of the Turkish army, the end of white ethnocentrism (supremacy) in the US and Europe and the pending crises in the 2030's are linked....
I was not referring to the relative decline of white majority rule - white supremacy has much different connotations - but rather to a shift in economic, political, and military power between The West and The Rest, or between Global North and Global South, or whatever other designations you prefer. Turkey will play a significant role in that.
Quote from: Que on May 22, 2022, 12:40:43 AMIn the years to come we'll see a severe climate crisis, an economic crisis, a food (and water) crisis and a major geopolitical crisis all in one.
Not years, months, weeks, or days, but right now:
Crises beyond Russia's war: Drought and famine lose attention as Ukraine drains focus and funds (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-war-ukraine-drains-aid-crisis-afghanistan-yemen-horn-africa-rcna29169)
The existing international political system and accompanying security arrangements are woefully out of date, Eurocentric, and incapable of addressing global problems right now. It will get worse as The West doubles down on what used to work.
We Must Prepare for Putin's Worst Weapons (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/21/opinion/putin-nuclear-weapons.html)
Quote from: The Honorable Mitt RomneySome will conclude that to avoid provoking Russia — and thus avoid the prospect of a possible Russian nuclear strike — we should pre-emptively restrain Ukraine from routing the Russian military. We could limit the weapons we send, hold back on intelligence and pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to settle. I disagree; free nations must continue to support Ukrainians' brave and necessary defense of their country. Failing to continue to support Ukraine would be like paying the cannibal to eat us last. If Mr. Putin, or any other nuclear power, can invade and subjugate with near impunity, then Ukraine would be only the first of such conquests. Inevitably, our friends and allies would be devoured by brazen, authoritarian nuclear powers, the implications of which would drastically alter the world order...
Further, we could confront China and every other nation with a choice much like that George W. Bush gave the world after Sept. 11: You are either with us, or you are with Russia — you cannot be with both...
Nice word choice: "cannibal", "devoured". Whatever author Romney used must have written this before lunch. Let that be a warning. Always write warmongering op-eds right
after a meal. Oh, and what if the proposed hypothetical ultimatum backfires?
(Do the references to Bush and Kissinger lend gravitas to this piece to which the failed presidential candidate affixed his name?)
Quote from: Que on May 22, 2022, 12:02:39 AM
It's just a good investment - there is nothing altruistic about it.
It's necessary for some good investments to press the altruism button, like "I did a thing, and Our Ford saw it was good!".
I feel good in an altruistic sense knowing dollars that are defending my dividends all over the world are defending billions of people who need a strong world economy as much as I do.
Why cannot there be an intersection of altruism and enlightened self-interest?
Quote from: 71 dB on May 21, 2022, 02:57:48 PM
"Will Russia attack Finland?"
Highly unlikely. Putin himself stated that Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden.
Quote from: Florestan on May 22, 2022, 07:50:28 AM
Highly unlikely. Putin himself stated that Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden.
And of course, Putin always tells the truth...
But in this case he probably is being truthful. The Russians have lost approximately 30% of their combat power within Ukraine, with little overall progress. The Russian Bear has been revealed as arthritic and confused. They will do well to hold on to the little they've gained thus far, and opening yet another front against an arguably superior opponent would be beyond reason.
I suspect that within the Finnish and Swedish military and government leadership, there is very little fear of Russia in the short term. Long term, NATO membership is desirable. Putin won't be in power forever, but there's currently no reason to think his successor will be any friendlier.
Quote from: LKB on May 22, 2022, 08:11:04 AM
And of course, Putin always tells the truth...
In this case I think he does.
QuoteBut in this case he probably is being truthful. The Russians have lost approximately 30% of their combat power within Ukraine, with little overall progress. The Russian Bear has been revealed as arthritic and confused. They will do well to hold on to the little they've gained thus far, and opening yet another front against an arguably superior opponent would be beyond reason.
I suspect that within the Finnish and Swedish military and government leadership, there is very little fear of Russia in the short term. Long term, NATO membership is desirable. Putin won't be in power forever, but there's currently no reason to think his successor will be any friendlier.
This.
Quote from: 71 dB on May 21, 2022, 02:57:48 PM
Yes, it is rude! I am tired of him running his mouth like americans were so special. At least you live in a NATO country. I have to wait God knows how many months thanks to Turkey for this shit to finally end. Don't quote his posts. That's how I don't see them.
It's not Todd's fault that Turkey wants to extract as much as they can from eventually agreeing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. And in the grand scheme of things, nothing Todd says matters a mere iota. Actually, this is valid for me and you as well. We're all just commenting on what people with real power do and decide. You take it much too seriously.
Quote from: Florestan on May 22, 2022, 08:19:25 AM
It's not Todd's fault that Turkey wants to extract as much as they can from eventually agreeing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. And in the grand scheme of things, nothing Todd says matters a mere iota. Actually, this is valid for me and you as well. We're all just commenting on what people with real power do and decide. You take it much too seriously.
I for one am ignoring Todd, and if everyone does this and do not give him fuel to react, he will die a silent dead. So ignore is the answer.
Quote from: Florestan on May 22, 2022, 07:50:28 AMHighly unlikely.
This seems to be the case. If Russia does attack Finland, many Finns will die. If it is a ground invasion, many Russian soldiers will die. And it will make Finnish and Swedish NATO membership a certainty, at least after hostilities end. Turkey would not be able to block membership, the pressure from the US would be too great. The US would threaten to, or would immediately, impose severe sanctions on Turkey. It is possible that the US government would clandestinely partner with Turkey's military to oust Erdoğan. The US has done that sort of thing before.
I read Romney's opinion, and consider it confirmation of his inability to comprehend both the opportunities and dangers which are currently present.
Confront China? When an opportunity to create a wedge between Xi and Putin presents itself?
Certainly, China will remain the most potent of adversaries for some years to come. But inflexibility in the face of dynamic events is equally dangerous, and the door to future opportunities appears rarely enough that it should not be lightly spurned.
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 22, 2022, 06:03:01 AM
Another oncoming epidemic. Has that name in English.
Apinarutto in Finnish. Just wondering how much it will sabotage our lives.... Do we have to ban bananas? ;D :P
Quote from: "Harry" on May 22, 2022, 08:21:37 AM
I for one am ignoring Todd, and if everyone does this and do not give him fuel to react, he will die a silent dead. So ignore is the answer.
Hurrah! 0:)
Quote from: Florestan on May 22, 2022, 08:19:25 AM
It's not Todd's fault that Turkey wants to extract as much as they can from eventually agreeing to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. And in the grand scheme of things, nothing Todd says matters a mere iota. Actually, this is valid for me and you as well. We're all just commenting on what people with real power do and decide. You take it much too seriously.
I am not saying it is Todd's fault. Of course it isn't. Lets just say that I am "on edge" because of the Turkey thing and that means my ability to take Todd's American exceptionalism is compromised at the moment. It has been hard 3 months because suddenly the security of my own country is being questioned on daily basis! Todd's posts do not help. I am trying to get my head together here finally. $:)
Quote from: LKB on May 22, 2022, 08:28:32 AM
Certainly, China will remain the most potent of adversaries for some years to come.
China peaked a few years ago. Labor costs continue to rise and the demographic situation is getting worse. Their "one child" army can't project power even as far as Vietnam. Mass casualties in the PLA could end the Xi regime if something else doesn't do it first.
In the West China is seen as a rich exporter. Those exports are going to decline and as they do it will be clear that China is a poor importer of basic goods. Even the rich part depends on US components to assemble their export goods. Eventually those components will go to the new low cost manufacturers.
Quote from: LKB on May 22, 2022, 08:11:04 AM
I suspect that within the Finnish and Swedish military and government leadership, there is very little fear of Russia in the short term. Long term, NATO membership is desirable. Putin won't be in power forever, but there's currently no reason to think his successor will be any friendlier.
Especially in the 90's Finland had high hopes for Russia developing toward a more democratic and peace-loving nation, but the last 20 years have proven those hopes naive and ridiculously optimistic. Maybe we projected our own way of thinking too much onto Russia? However, this explains why the enthusiasms to join NATO has been rather low in Finland until recently. Fortunately we played it safe and we have build our defence as NATO-compatible as possible. Without Turkey and perhaps Croatia Finland would be accepted as a new NATO member very fast, because other countries recognise what Finland has to offer. Anyway, Russia has made it very clear they are not interested of becoming more democratic or friendlier. Better join NATO while we still can! ???
Quote from: 71 dB on May 22, 2022, 09:29:22 AM
Especially in the 90's Finland had high hopes for Russia developing toward a more democratic and peace-loving nation, but the last 20 years have proven those hopes naive and ridiculously optimistic. Maybe we projected our own way of thinking too much onto Russia? However, this explains why the enthusiasms to join NATO has been rather low in Finland until recently. Fortunately we played it safe and we have build our defence as NATO-compatible as possible. Without Turkey and perhaps Croatia Finland would be accepted as a new NATO member very fast, because other countries recognise what Finland has to offer. Anyway, Russia has made it very clear they are not interested of becoming more democratic or friendlier. Better join NATO while we still can! ???
Of course. NATO will benefit from both democracies, and as stated, Sweden and Finland will have their security assured. Win/win.
Russia tries to rebound in Ukraine as prospects for victory fade (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/21/russia-ukraine-victory/)
Quote from: LKB on May 22, 2022, 09:36:34 AM
Of course. NATO will benefit from both democracies, and as stated, Sweden and Finland will have their security assured. Win/win.
Or will NATO get 2 mort nations that will not spend 2% of GDP on defense?
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on May 22, 2022, 10:01:53 AM
Or will NATO get 2 mort nations that will not spend 2% of GDP on defense?
With the planned increases both countries will be over 2%. Right now Finland is at 1.5% and will increase by 70% above that.
Chinese is difficult for the vast majority of native English speakers to learn.
What about Finns learning Russian?
Quote from: drogulus on May 22, 2022, 10:17:25 AM
With the planned increases both countries will be over 2%. Right now Finland is at 1.5% and will increase by 70% above that.
Denmark says they will meet in 2033. Will Finland and Sweden be willing to put it a legal document saying they will get to 2%?
Quote from: Scion7 on May 22, 2022, 11:26:03 AM
Chinese is difficult for the vast majority of native English speakers to learn.
What about Finns learning Russian?
Easier, I think for Finns to learn Russian than for Russians to learn Finnish.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on May 22, 2022, 11:39:54 AM
Denmark says they will meet in 2033. Will Finland and Sweden be willing to put it a legal document saying they will get to 2%?
It's happening very soon, not many years from now. In 2020 Finland spent ~1.5%, and for 2022 ~1.9%. The 70% figure is supposed to be a one time increase, but we'll see.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on May 22, 2022, 11:39:54 AM
Denmark says they will meet in 2033. Will Finland and Sweden be willing to put it a legal document saying they will get to 2%?
Denmark will not meet its obligations. 2033 is already nine years after the previously agreed to deadline. Denmark, like most European countries, has no intention of meeting its obligations. In general, European governments act in bad faith. In practice, US taxpayers help subsidize European social programs.
Finland is one of the few countries in the world that will likely meet its obligations. Finland is one of the few countries to pay off its WWI debt to the US, and it is the only country that repaid its WWII reparation debt to the USSR, for instance. Sweden will act like most other European countries and be a free rider, to use Obama's accurate phrase.
One way, of course, by which the USA profits from EU NATO members is by getting them to spend billions on US made arms, fighter jets etc.
Quote from: drogulus on May 22, 2022, 11:56:17 AM
It's happening very soon, not many years from now. In 2020 Finland spent ~1.5%, and for 2022 ~1.9%. The 70% figure is supposed to be a one time increase, but we'll see.
I'll go ahead and say that I am envious of those people with a government which can get things done, because it isn't held hostage by performative asshole Trumpkins.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on May 22, 2022, 12:25:05 PM
I'll go ahead and say that I am envious of those people with a government which can get things done, because it isn't held hostage by performative asshole Trumpkins.
And do you think insulting people who disagree with you will help get things done?
Quote from: Herman on May 22, 2022, 12:18:07 PM
One way, of course, by which the USA profits from EU NATO members is by getting them to spend billions on US made arms, fighter jets etc.
There is no requirement for them to buy US made equipment. They did agree to spend 2%, so do the nations that doesn't do prove they are not to be trusted?
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on May 22, 2022, 07:33:55 AM
Why cannot there be an intersection of altruism and enlightened self-interest?
No reason at all beyond a lack of imagination.
Quote from: "Harry" on May 22, 2022, 08:21:37 AM
I for one am ignoring Todd, and if everyone does this and do not give him fuel to react, he will die a silent dead. So ignore is the answer.
People can do what they like. I'm interest in good counter-arguments though. Todd expresses a point of view that should be taken seriously. My worry is that we live in a social media environment in which people don't make arguments anymore. Todd can be a bit rude and insulting at times but most of his comments have real content. Strip away the tone and there's something there with which to contend. Someone has to do it otherwise we're just in an echo chamber.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on May 22, 2022, 11:39:54 AM
Denmark says they will meet in 2033. Will Finland and Sweden be willing to put it a legal document saying they will get to 2%?
I agree that this is too slow regarding the DK development, like it has been previously. However, all major, traditionally governmental political parties here are behind the agreement, it's not a parliamentary fraction. And the budget will increase further every year from now on (like from 2018-2023). Also, DK has in reality been among the most eager to support US and NATO missions by deploying military abroad, with for example 43 fatalities in Afghanistan (if considering the population size, this exceeds the level of the US or the UK), involvements in severe fighting in Yugoslavia ('Operation Bøllebank' etc), Iraq, the stationing now in the Baltics, and so on.
The Finnish army is considered strong by experts, with 280,000 soldiers quite readily available, and 900,000 overall by total mobilization, the biggest artillery capabilities in Western Europe, etc. The Swedish needs upscaling, but their navy and air force are somewhat better. Swedish media and public debate have been very war-focused due to Ukraine, to a much higher degree than averagely found elsewhere.
Quote from: milk on May 22, 2022, 05:22:29 PM
People can do what they like. I'm interest in good counter-arguments though. Todd expresses a point of view that should be taken seriously. My worry is that we live in a social media environment in which people don't make arguments anymore. Todd can be a bit rude and insulting at times but most of his comments have real content. Strip away the tone and there's something there with which to contend. Someone has to do it otherwise we're just in an echo chamber.
See, I simply don't think that we get good counter-arguments. We mostly get rhetorical questions about the value of the USA bothering to care about Europe. That's not an argument. Mostly it's a complete unwillingness to accept any of the arguments that
others make, about the value of strategic partnerships.
We also get claims that, when challenged or just queried, aren't backed up beyond telling people to go do their own googling. I dispute your claim that there's real content, because over and over when people actually ask for content, they don't get it. Florestan in particular has asked Todd some genuine questions, looking for more information... and Todd simply doesn't give it. He asserts that he's answered the question when it's obvious to all and sundry that he hasn't, and it's really hard to escape the conclusion that the reason he doesn't answer questions is that he
can't.
So while I applaud your stance in principle, I genuinely dispute your notion that it's a principle that can be meaningfully applied to this particular 'contributor'. I love a good argument. I stopped reading Todd's posts because at no stage did I have a sense I was going to get one. Frankly, I think you'd be a heck of a lot better at it.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on May 22, 2022, 01:08:52 PM
There is no requirement for them to buy US made equipment. They did agree to spend 2%, so do the nations that doesn't do prove they are not to be trusted?
You seem to be blessed with a very simple mind.
Quote from: milk on May 22, 2022, 05:22:29 PMMy worry is that we live in a social media environment in which people don't make arguments anymore.
Current social media are among the best propaganda tools ever devised, as is the internet more generally. Radio, movies, television, and print still have their place, as does the use of what are now called influencers, but nothing in history has allowed for the speed and focus and repetition of messaging, tailored to audience tastes, as exists today. Political battles to censor modern platforms - old words must be repurposed to suit the new age - will help determine who gets to control propaganda. George Creel's spirit lives on.
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 22, 2022, 09:10:08 PMThe Finnish army is considered strong by experts, with 280,000 soldiers quite readily available, and 900,000 overall by total mobilization
This is factually inaccurate.
See?
"That is factually inaccurate."
All we get is a blunt assertion that someone else's data is wrong. No sources. Heck, we don't even get alternative unsourced figures. I can't compare Todd's data to someone else's to see which is more accurate, or seek an explanation of the discrepancy, because no data was supplied.
I don't see the value add. I really don't. And I wonder where milk sees the value and the content and the interesting argument.
Russia's Counsellor to the United Nations in Geneva has resigned.
Boris Bondarev: "Never have I been so ashamed of my country."
Quote from: Todd on May 23, 2022, 04:36:12 AM
This is factually inaccurate.
And yet it's exactly what the Finnish Defence Forces state on their website dedicated to conscription and conscripts:
The Finnish Defence Forces' reserve comprises approximately 900,000 Finnish citizens. The wartime strength of the Finnish Defence Forces is 280,000 soldiers, and this strength is resupplied by other reservists as applicable.Source: https://intti.fi/en/in-the-reserve (https://intti.fi/en/in-the-reserve)
Quote from: Florestan on May 23, 2022, 06:19:11 AM
And yet it's exactly what the Finnish Defence Forces state on their website dedicated to conscription and conscripts:
The Finnish Defence Forces' reserve comprises approximately 900,000 Finnish citizens. The wartime strength of the Finnish Defence Forces is 280,000 soldiers, and this strength is resupplied by other reservists as applicable.
Source: https://intti.fi/en/in-the-reserve (https://intti.fi/en/in-the-reserve)
Obviously the Finnish Defence Forces is lying in order to get into NATO and live on the expense of american tax payers... :P
Quote from: Madiel on May 22, 2022, 10:34:13 PM
See, I simply don't think that we get good counter-arguments. We mostly get rhetorical questions about the value of the USA bothering to care about Europe. That's not an argument. Mostly it's a complete unwillingness to accept any of the arguments that others make, about the value of strategic partnerships.
We also get claims that, when challenged or just queried, aren't backed up beyond telling people to go do their own googling. I dispute your claim that there's real content, because over and over when people actually ask for content, they don't get it. Florestan in particular has asked Todd some genuine questions, looking for more information... and Todd simply doesn't give it. He asserts that he's answered the question when it's obvious to all and sundry that he hasn't, and it's really hard to escape the conclusion that the reason he doesn't answer questions is that he can't.
So while I applaud your stance in principle, I genuinely dispute your notion that it's a principle that can be meaningfully applied to this particular 'contributor'. I love a good argument. I stopped reading Todd's posts because at no stage did I have a sense I was going to get one. Frankly, I think you'd be a heck of a lot better at it.
Yes. Additionally, it ain't my job to separate whatever may possess actual merit, from the performative jerkoff.
Russian soldier jailed for life in first war crimes trial of Ukraine war (Reuters)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on May 23, 2022, 08:00:18 AM
Russian soldier jailed for life in first war crimes trial of Ukraine war (Reuters)
I believe that sentence is probably meant as a warning and/or deterrent for the Russian/ Wagner infantry. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he were released relatively soon after the war is concluded.
Tanks, but no ammo – Germany's Ukraine pledges show military muddle (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tanks-no-ammo-germanys-ukraine-pledges-show-military-muddle-2022-05-25/)
Hedges: No Way Out but War (https://scheerpost.com/2022/05/23/hedges-no-way-out-but-war/)
Quote from: Chris Hedges
Military strategists, who say the war will be long and protracted, are talking about infusions of $4 or $5 billion in military aid a month to Ukraine...
The political class is as self-deluded as the generals. It refuses to accept the emergence of a multi-polar world and the palpable decline of American power. It speaks in the outdated language of American exceptionalism and triumphalism, believing it has the right to impose its will as the leader of the "free world." In his 1992 Defense Planning Guidance memorandum, U.S. Under Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz argued that the U.S. must ensure no rival superpower again arises. The U.S. should project its military strength to dominate a unipolar world in perpetuity. On February 19, 1998, on NBC's "Today Show", Secretary of State Madeleine Albright gave the Democratic version of this doctrine of unipolarity. "If we have to use force it is because we are Americans; we are the indispensable nation," she said. "We stand tall, and we see further than other countries into the future."
A strikingly lonely voice of dissent from the left, or at least a rare one that can get some type of "platform". Hedges has been consistent in his critiques, of course. Alas, they go unheeded.
Chris Hedges was on the Russia Today payroll till recently, that's pretty much Kremlin's state television.
Quote from: Herman on May 26, 2022, 09:25:35 AM
Chris Hedges was on the Russia Today payroll till recently, that's pretty much Kremlin's state television.
A standard diversion tactic.
Quote from: Herman on May 26, 2022, 09:25:35 AM
Chris Hedges was on the Russia Today payroll till recently, that's pretty much Kremlin's state television.
My understanding is you can delete the "pretty much".
Given what's happening to Russia and China, the US couldn't buy a multi-polar world at any price.
The power of the US led alliance system is unmatched and its main challengers are weakening.
Some of what Hedges says is not just emotive, but also true. The The US does prefer a world in which its power is not challenged and can impose its will. These are things all countries would like to be able to do. The US is only the second country in recent centuries to reach that point. It has used that power to protect the trade routes that are vital to the prosperity of itself and all its partners.
I'll let perpetuity worry about itself. Businesses don't put themselves out of business because they won't exist at some future point.
The prime minister of Finland, Sanna Marin, visited Ukraine to show support and to visit the bombed Bucha north of Kiev. Reconstruction of Ukraine was talked about.
Meanwhile, the negotiations between Turkey and Sweden/Finland have started... :P
Quote from: 71 dB on May 26, 2022, 02:43:54 PM
The prime minister of Finland, Sanna Marin, visited Ukraine to show support and to visit the bombed Bucha north of Kiev. Reconstruction of Ukraine was talked about.
Meanwhile, the negotiations between Turkey and Sweden/Finland have started... :P
You Finns have the sexiest Prime-Minister in the world. ;)
Quote from: Florestan on May 27, 2022, 01:22:41 AM
You Finns have the sexiest Prime-Minister in the world. ;)
Absolutely, and the president's wife is a poet.
Finland's got it all.
Quote from: Herman on May 27, 2022, 11:33:44 AM
Absolutely, and the president's wife is a poet.
Finland's got it all.
More importantly, they defeated the USSR in two consecutive wars. Way to go,
Suomi!
West mulls having Russian oligarchs buy way out of sanctions (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-roman-abramovich-sports-4d6634fa97a03ae023c385f06301b137)
Leave it to an erstwhile writer for The Economist to propose an idea where The West extorts specific individuals, or specific individuals are allowed to bribe The West (take your pick) to get out of hot water. As any person with econ training knows, everything has a price, usually expressed in dollars. I wonder if the agreements with the evil/enlightened oligarchs will be made public. They could make for entertaining reading.
Quote from: Florestan on May 27, 2022, 11:49:44 AM
More importantly, they defeated the USSR in two consecutive wars. Way to go, Suomi!
Not without a big price thou. Finland lost land area to the Soviet Union and had to pay war reparations. To my knowledge Finland is the only country that has paid war reparations fully. The positive side of those payments were that Finland had to develop its metal industry because the Soviet Union demanded locomotives etc. from us.
Bringing Finland into NATO is a big mistake (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/05/29/opinion/bringing-finland-into-nato-is-big-mistake/)
Quote from: Stephen Kinzer
Arguments against Finnish entry into NATO are straightforward. Finland faces no serious danger. If attacked, it can defend itself, with help from neighbors if necessary. The United States should not assume obligations to go to war for more countries whose fate does not decisively affect us...
Some in Washington apparently believe that war between the United States and Russia is possible, maybe inevitable, and perhaps even desirable. It's a seductive logic. If you're thirsting for war with Russia, bringing Finland into NATO is a great idea. Otherwise, not so much...
As a former part of the Russian Empire, Finland believes it's in danger regardless of what some columnist thinks.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on NATO expansion (https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/05/30/recep-tayyip-erdogan-on-nato-expansion?utm_content=article-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=5/30/2022&utm_id=1184716)
Erdoğan lays out the public rationale for his demands for Finnish and Swedish admittance to NATO.
Quote from: Todd on May 30, 2022, 01:39:40 PM
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on NATO expansion (https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/05/30/recep-tayyip-erdogan-on-nato-expansion?utm_content=article-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=5/30/2022&utm_id=1184716)
Erdoğan lays out the public rationale for his demands for Finnish and Swedish admittance to NATO.
The commentators clearly fail to see the difference between Turkey ruled by Erdoğan, and the Turkey before Erdoğan.
Two entirely different things. Turkey has no longer a secular, western orientation as mapped out by Greece-born Atatürk, its (ideological) allegiances to the US and Europe are long gone. Erdoğan is the muslim version of Orbán (or Trump): authoritarian, nationalistic, conservative, xenofobe, opportunistic and corrupt.
The Russian domestic perspective:
Putin forgot to ask Russian people's permission for Ukraine (https://euobserver.com/opinion/155077)
Quote from: Que on May 31, 2022, 02:12:31 AM
The commentators clearly fail to see the difference between Turkey ruled by Erdoğan, and the Turkey before Erdoğan.
Two entirely different things. Turkey has no longer a secular, western orientation as mapped out by Greece-born Atatürk, its (ideological) allegiances to the US and Europe are long gone. Erdoğan is the muslim version of Orbán (or Trump): authoritarian, nationalistic, conservative, xenofobe, opportunistic and corrupt.
Well, Erdogan (like Orban) was democratically elected several times yet Turkey is blamed by the West for being an authoritarian state. Had he been toppled the first time by a military coup, a Turkey ruled by the ensuing junta would probably have been much more in line with Ataturk's vision (which he implemented himself
manu militari) and much more pro-Western yet it would have been blamed by the West for not being a democratic state.
damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Quote from: Florestan on May 31, 2022, 02:30:31 AM
Well, Erdogan (like Orban) was democratically elected several times yet Turkey is blamed by the West for being an authoritarian state. Had he been toppled the first time by a military coup, a Turkey ruled by the ensuing junta would probably have been much more in line with Ataturk's vision (which he implemented himself manu militari) and much more pro-Western yet it would have been blamed by the West for not being a democratic state.
damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Being democratically elected doesn't guarantee anything. Even Putin was democratically elected. And as you know there are more ominous examples in European history. You're not damned if you do, and damned if you don't: you have to respect the rule of law, the rules of democracy, human rights, an independent judiciary and a free press to be democratic.
But my point was that ideologically the Turkish junta was a reliable and loyal strategic partner of the west, or rather: that Erdoğan is not.
Quote from: Que on May 31, 2022, 03:21:58 AM
ideologically the Turkish junta was a more reliable and loyal strategic partner of the west.
This actually raises an interesting question: the Turkish Army used to be the guardian of secularism and modernism as well as the world's leading expert in successfull coups yet Erdogan managed to tame them into complete political irrelevance. How on earth was he able to do that?
Quote from: Que on May 31, 2022, 02:12:31 AMThe commentators clearly fail to see the difference between Turkey ruled by Erdoğan
Erdoğan put his name to the article, so he is the commentator. I don't know if he wrote it or not.
Quote from: Florestan on May 31, 2022, 02:30:31 AMWell, Erdogan (like Orban) was democratically elected several times yet Turkey is blamed by the West for being an authoritarian state.
Something similar happened in Iraq after it started holding elections. Western liberalism is not as popular outside of western liberal countries. Democracy will not always lead to the proper outcomes from a western liberal outlook.
Quote from: Que on May 31, 2022, 03:21:58 AMBut my point was that ideologically the Turkish junta was a reliable and loyal strategic partner of the west, or rather: that Erdoğan is not.
This is the western imperial mindset. Allies must adhere to western ideals as well as being allies. That world is eroding. Foreign policy must adapt.
Quote from: drogulus on May 22, 2022, 10:17:25 AM
With the planned increases both countries will be over 2%. Right now Finland is at 1.5% and will increase by 70% above that.
My understanding is that the Finnish budget is actually already considered to be around 2%, because for example the Home Guard expenses plus a few more aren't included in the lower estimate.
Denmark has joined the No Russian Gas Club, because of the refusal to pay in rubles, but the economical damage here is said to be quite limited.
The new EU sanction packet is said to reduce oil import from Russia by 60% soon, and 90% at the end of the year, so quite comprehensive.
Germany's 100 billion Euro boost in the defense budget was agreed upon in the Bundestag parliament.
The big question is of course whether Russia wil be able to cope with the sanctions in the longer game, and whether the opposition abroad towards Russia will gradually erode. There are all sorts of reports on the likely prospects, some of them saying Russia is planning for a war-like situation spanning 5-10 years ahead. Other, contrasting reports say that Russian elites are increasingly against the war, and/or that Putin is physically severely sick.
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 31, 2022, 09:45:35 AM
Denmark has joined the No Russian Gas Club, because of the refusal to pay in rubles, but the economical damage here is said to be quite limited.
Ditto for the Netherlands.
QuoteThe new EU sanction packet is said to reduce oil import from Russia by 60% soon, and 90% at the end of the year, so quite comprehensive.
The exemption on demand of Viktor Orbán applies to Russian oil that enters the EU through a pipe line that runs to Hungary, Slovenia and Czechia. Since that pipe line runs through Ukrainian territory and considering Orbán's hostile attitude towards Ukraine and Ukranian interests, some "accident" might happen to it pretty soon.... hopefully... ::)
Quote from: MusicTurner on May 31, 2022, 09:45:35 AMGermany's 100 billion Euro boost in the defense budget was agreed upon in the Bundestag parliament.
If Deutsche Welle is considered a reliable source, that expansion was already under negotiation prior to the Russia invasion, is spread over five years, and then has to be continued or altered after the spending plan is completed. In other words, it was an exercise in political negotiations turned political theater.
A fun factoid I learned is that about 21% of children living in Germany live in poverty, which is a higher rate than in the US, which is around 18%. (Yes, definitions of poverty differ.) Opponents of the increased spending have apparently pointed this out, and presumably will continue to do so. I don't follow German politics, so perhaps this is all incorrect and/or inconsequential.
Quote from: Todd on June 01, 2022, 08:15:31 AM
A fun factoid I learned is that about 21% of children living in Germany live in poverty, which is a higher rate than in the US, which is around 18%. (Yes, definitions of poverty differ.)
This is actually an interesting topic.
What is the US definition of poverty? A person is considered poor if... what?
Quote from: Florestan on June 01, 2022, 08:37:21 AM
What is the US definition of poverty? A person is considered poor if... what?
How the Census Bureau Measures Poverty (https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidance/poverty-measures.html)
Quote from: Florestan on June 01, 2022, 08:37:21 AM
This is actually an interesting topic.
What is the US definition of poverty? A person is considered poor if... what?
Comparing countries this way can be tricky. The poverty lines differ, how much under the line do people live etc. Being a poor child in a country without free school lunch is worse than in a country with free school lunch etc.
Quote from: Todd on June 01, 2022, 08:42:52 AM
How the Census Bureau Measures Poverty (https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidance/poverty-measures.html)
Thank you.
Let's make a comparison:
Family A has five members: two children, one mother, one father, and one great-aunt.
The family's 2020 poverty threshold (below) is $31,661.Well, $31,661 a year means $2638 a month. In Romanian currency that's 12,264 RON a month, which means that the aforementioned family is middle class. Low middle class, granted, but solidly so and far from poverty. I suspect the same equivalence goes for Germany. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on June 01, 2022, 09:06:17 AM
Thank you.
Let's make a comparison:
Family A has five members: two children, one mother, one father, and one great-aunt.
The family's 2020 poverty threshold (below) is $31,661.
Well, $31,661 a year means $2638 a month. In Romanian currency that's 12,264 RON a month, which means that the aforementioned family is middle class. Low middle class, granted, but solidly so and far from poverty. I suspect the same equivalence goes for Germany. ;D
Well, $2638 a month before taxes sounds bad for a family of five members. Maybe in Romania the cost of living is so low that that's "middle class."
I believe if both parents in a family work at a minimum wage job, the earnings together are near that threshold.
In Finland people earning 1,900-6,400 euros (year 2017) a month made the middle class (68 % of people). Thats about $4,200-14,000 per month for two earners in a family.
Quote from: 71 dB on June 01, 2022, 10:10:08 AM
Well, $2638 a month before taxes
No, I mean $2638 a month net income.
Quote from: Florestan on June 01, 2022, 10:22:33 AM
No, I mean $2638 a month net income.
Aren't these poverty limits before taxes?
Quote from: 71 dB on June 01, 2022, 10:47:54 AM
Aren't these poverty limits before taxes?
I don't know, the website Todd linked to does not specify. In Romania the usual talk is about net income so I assumed it automatically.
Quote from: Florestan on June 01, 2022, 11:16:42 AM
I don't know, the website Todd linked to does not specify. In Romania the usual talk is about net income so I assumed it automatically.
Yes, it does: "
The income used to compute poverty status includes (before taxes):"
Quote from: Todd on June 01, 2022, 11:23:59 AM
Yes, it does: "The income used to compute poverty status includes (before taxes):"
Ah, my bad then.
The 'Death Cult' Keeping Russia in Ukraine (https://www.thebulwark.com/the-death-cult-keeping-russia-in-ukraine/)
Meanwhile, Russia's death cult leaders are growing utterly shrill. Putin's foremost propagandist, Margarita Simonyan, goes on national television to threaten that there are only two acceptable outcomes for this war: Ukraine's defeat or a nuclear apocalypse.
Simonyan is a cynic who knows that her words will be translated for a foreign audience. She wishes to demoralize the West, Ukraine, and sane Russians who want nothing to do with the war. But the fact that her extremist views are considered to be acceptable for a mainstream Russian audience makes it clear that death-worship is not relegated to the country's fringe.
So what's going with this fucking war? Is Putin dead yet or what? Let's get to the bottomline here, folks.
Quote from: Florestan on June 01, 2022, 09:06:17 AM
Thank you.
Let's make a comparison:
Family A has five members: two children, one mother, one father, and one great-aunt.
The family's 2020 poverty threshold (below) is $31,661.
Well, $31,661 a year means $2638 a month. In Romanian currency that's 12,264 RON a month, which means that the aforementioned family is middle class. Low middle class, granted, but solidly so and far from poverty. I suspect the same equivalence goes for Germany. ;D
You can't assume the cost of living in different places is the same. What 12,264 buys you in Romania might be very different to what the exchanged currency would buy you in the USA or Germany.
Quote from: Mirror Image on June 01, 2022, 02:11:38 PM
So what's going with this fucking war? Is Putin dead yet or what? Let's get to the bottomline here, folks.
Well, Putin is counting on us to get bored, so you're on the right track. :blank:
🤠😎
Alas, it seems it is far from coming to an end; practically, everyone has tried to convince Putin to stop the war, but everyone has failed. He doesn't listen to anybody......
Quote from: Mirror Image on June 01, 2022, 02:11:38 PM
So what's going with this fucking war? Is Putin dead yet or what? Let's get to the bottomline here, folks.
According to some sources Putin has cancer and 2-3 years to live.
Quote from: 71 dB on June 01, 2022, 03:00:55 PM
According to some sources Putin has cancer and 2-3 years to live.
That's a rather long time to be living with terminal cancer. So call me skeptical.
Medical rumors concerning Vlad the Mad pop up as frequently as strident television hosts in Moscow, and are just about as credible.
An overview of the various reports on Putin's health:
https://www.businessinsider.com/timeline-putin-alleged-health-problems-2022-5?r=US&IR=T
But if Ukranian intelligence says he has still a few years to live, I'll take their word for it.
If true, it's unlikely to influence the outcome of this war. It might have played an important role in its creation, but that is another matter....
Quote from: Madiel on June 01, 2022, 04:03:06 PM
That's a rather long time to be living with terminal cancer. So call me skeptical.
Of course you should be skeptical. It is just what I have
seen, not a proven mathematical fact!
36 experts agree: Stay the course in Ukraine (https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3508456-36-experts-agree-stay-the-course-in-ukraine/)
If you asked the Uke defense people I think they would tell you the war is going to last for many more months at least, and based on what the expertariat has been saying for a while this has been the consensus view for most of the war. The reason is not hard to see. Russia will take time to exhaust all of its resources. They can fail repeatedly in their main goals while gaining ground here and losing it there. The ghost of General Kutuzov is fighting on the other side.
Poland understands what Russia is up to. Well, everyone does now but the Poles always did. Russia will do whatever it can to plug the invasion routes into Russian territory. They won't stop until they can't go on.
Quote from: drogulus on June 02, 2022, 07:07:34 AM
Russia will do whatever it can to plug the invasion routes into Russian territory.
Meanwhile, in the West, we see what futile endeavors Napoleon and Hitler headed.
China has Russia's back, or at least they are threatening to have it. Since February the Chinese have been holding military exercises around the city of Harbin where there's a big PLA headquarters. This is not far from the border with Russia. China is the country for which the term "border clash" was invented. There are the ones with India, and in 1969 the Chinese massacred several dozen Soviet border guards for the crime of being border guards.
Quote from: drogulus on June 02, 2022, 02:24:43 PM
... and in 1969 the Chinese massacred several dozen Soviet border guards for the crime of being border guards.
Sounds like "special operations" to me ....
Quote from: drogulus on June 02, 2022, 07:07:34 AM
If you asked the Uke defense people I think they would tell you the war is going to last for many more months at least, and based on what the expertariat has been saying for a while this has been the consensus view for most of the war. The reason is not hard to see. Russia will take time to exhaust all of its resources. They can fail repeatedly in their main goals while gaining ground here and losing it there. The ghost of General Kutuzov is fighting on the other side.
Poland understands what Russia is up to. Well, everyone does now but the Poles always did. Russia will do whatever it can to plug the invasion routes into Russian territory. They won't stop until they can't go on.
Bear in mind that historically the invasion routes into Russia were actually invasions of what is now Belarus and Ukraine.
Quote from: drogulus on June 02, 2022, 07:07:34 AM
If you asked the Uke defense people I think they would tell you the war is going to last for many more months at least, and based on what the expertariat has been saying for a while this has been the consensus view for most of the war. The reason is not hard to see. Russia will take time to exhaust all of its resources. They can fail repeatedly in their main goals while gaining ground here and losing it there. The ghost of General Kutuzov is fighting on the other side.
Poland understands what Russia is up to. Well, everyone does now but the Poles always did. Russia will do whatever it can to plug the invasion routes into Russian territory. They won't stop until they can't go on.
100 days...
I go back to my Elgar avatar for this reason. This problem called Russia isn't going anywhere so better move on with our lives while we can...
Quote from: 71 dB on June 02, 2022, 09:05:07 PM
100 days...
I go back to my Elgar avatar for this reason. This problem called Russia isn't going anywhere so better move on with our lives while we can...
100 days is nothing, and l'll fly the flag of Ukraine for as long as it takes for Russia to capitulate. ;)
Ex-diplomat of the US and foreign policy expert Elizabeth Shackelford says NATO should smoke Türkeya out. She says the undemocratic nature of the country makes NATO weaker rather than stronger. Türkeya abuses its veto-power against countries who do not support Erdogan's obsession over the Kurds.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-nato-alliance-turkey-divorce-shackelford-20220602-nyreivkfdndtpfivcepjnbv7xy-story.html
Quote from: 71 dB on June 03, 2022, 02:22:03 AM
Ex-diplomat of the US and foreign policy expert Elizabeth Shackelford says NATO should smoke Türkeya out. She says the undemocratic nature of the country makes NATO weaker rather than stronger. Türkeya abuses its veto-power against countries who do not support Erdogan's obsession over the Kurds.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-nato-alliance-turkey-divorce-shackelford-20220602-nyreivkfdndtpfivcepjnbv7xy-story.html
She has a point. Unfortunately, as the op-ed states, there is no clear path for doing this.
Quote from: krummholz on June 03, 2022, 03:42:31 AM
She has a point. Unfortunately, as the op-ed states, there is no clear path for doing this.
Yeah and Sweden & Finland remain sitting ducks despite of fulfilling the NATO membership requirements. What Türkeya demands from us is ridiculous and nothing to do with NATO.
Quote from: 71 dB on June 03, 2022, 03:50:28 AM
Yeah and Sweden & Finland remain sitting ducks despite of fulfilling the NATO membership requirements. What Türkeya demands from us is ridiculous and nothing to do with NATO.
There will probably be more member states willing to make bilateral arrangements with both Sweden and Finland, just as the UK have. Even if NATO membership is delayed, security will still be enhanced. And, Erdogan won't remain in power forever ( though he probably won't be going away anytime soon ).
So it seems Putin was the target of an assassination attempt, and the rumors of illness may be more than rumors.
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357
Quote from: LKB on June 03, 2022, 04:15:34 AM
There will probably be more member states willing to make bilateral arrangements with both Sweden and Finland, just as the UK have. Even if NATO membership is delayed, security will still be enhanced. And, Erdogan won't remain in power forever ( though he probably won't be going away anytime soon ).
It means NATO 2.0 built on bilateral arrangements. Sweden and Finland hoped to get into NATO in 3-6 months, but now the fear is this will takes years. What is really nasty is that Türkeya signaled to us they support our membership before and suddenly they don't. That damn country can't be trusted!
Quote from: LKB on June 03, 2022, 04:19:12 AM
So it seems Putin was the target of an assassination attempt, and the rumors of illness may be more than rumors.
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357
Although there are times when intelligence reports turn out to be little more than rumours on official letterhead. *cough* weapons of mass destruction *cough*
Quote from: krummholz on June 03, 2022, 03:42:31 AM
She has a point. Unfortunately, as the op-ed states, there is no clear path for doing this.
Turkey holds one of the most strategically important locations on earth. People have fought wars over Byzantium for thousands of years. The author's idealistic outlook on alliances doesn't square with military needs. The complaint about Turkey being antidemocratic is hollow since it is common to make alliances with undemocratic/antidemocratic regimes. The best bit of the op-ed is the hollow complaint about Turkey using its veto power. The people who put NATO together knew what they were doing, and there are reasons no methods to expel members exist. Remember the continent NATO was designed to protect.
Ukraine Isn't Just Getting American-Made Killer Drones. It's Getting A Whole System For Remote Warfare. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/06/02/ukraine-isnt-just-getting-american-made-killer-drones-its-getting-a-whole-system-for-remote-warfare/?sh=7c1c63624fa5)
A great deal. Defense contractors get paid. Extant drone platforms get to be field tested against Russian electronic defenses. Training needs in a combat zone where Americans are not directly handling the gear will get sussed out. This info could all come in handy if this or similar systems end up being used against an even stronger foe, whatever country that may be. Oh, and maybe it changes the direction of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Quote from: Madiel on June 03, 2022, 05:00:46 AM
Although there are times when intelligence reports turn out to be little more than rumours on official letterhead. *cough* weapons of mass destruction *cough*
Apparently he's wearing massive bulletproof jackets at public events, as shown by a press photo, when he leans down, and it sticks out from his suit on the back. Provided of course the photo isn't manipulated.
Quote from: Madiel on June 03, 2022, 05:00:46 AM
Although there are times when intelligence reports turn out to be little more than rumours on official letterhead. *cough* weapons of mass destruction *cough*
Yes, but this problem is also dealt with in the linked article.
Quote from: LKB on June 03, 2022, 04:19:12 AM
So it seems Putin was the target of an assassination attempt, and the rumors of illness may be more than rumors.
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusnnive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357 (https://www.newsweek.com/exclusnnive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357)
Whether there was doubt about the cancer, there remains the caution against thinking the timing will be any asset to Ukraine in the war.
Quote from: Madiel on June 03, 2022, 05:00:46 AM
Although there are times when intelligence reports turn out to be little more than rumours on official letterhead. *cough* weapons of mass destruction *cough*
And thank you, sir, for reminding me of Colin Powell's slide show 8)
Ukraine is increasingly integrated with its major allies via the advanced weapons systems it has been provided, just as Finland is with the F-35 and its network components. This is NATO without the paperwork. Now, I wouldn't deny that the words on paper have value. I'm just sayin' is all.
One thing to keep in mind is that the replacement for Putin is more likely to be similar pro-war "conquerer" rather than a person of peace and democracy. We can only hope the Russian oligarchs have suffered so much from this war that they will force the country to course-correct their ambitions as a nation into something that the rest of the World can accept.
Quote from: drogulus on June 03, 2022, 07:24:12 AM
..., just as Finland is with the F-35 and its network components.
Finland just made the deal half a year ago. It will take many years before all of them are delivered: Finland will begin phasing in the F-35 from
2027 onwards.
Quote from: 71 dB on June 03, 2022, 07:28:26 AM
One thing to keep in mind is that the replacement for Putin is more likely to be similar pro-war "conquerer" rather than a person of peace and democracy. We can only hope the Russian oligarchs have suffered so much from this war that they will force the country to course-correct their ambitions as a nation into something that the rest of the World can accept.
Patrushev seems to be genuinely worse, unless he's acting, which probably isn't the case https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577
whereas
Mishustin has kept a low profile recently and he is apparently more of a traditional bureaucrat, with an economy background
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Mishustin
Shoigu is likely considered increasingly incompetent, because of the Ukraine war failures.
Medvedev has turned extremely hawkish and totalitarian in his expressed opinions, in spite of being more liberal earlier, but I haven't heard of anyone in the West suggesting he has real chances as a successor.
Quote from: 71 dB on June 03, 2022, 07:38:51 AM
Finland just made the deal half a year ago. It will take many years before all of them are delivered: Finland will begin phasing in the F-35 from 2027 onwards.
In the meantime Finland will fly Hornets like so:
https://www.youtube.com/v/sgltp-WM_YU
I think you will be fine.
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 03, 2022, 06:05:16 AM
Apparently he's wearing massive bulletproof jackets at public events, as shown by a press photo, when he leans down, and it sticks out from his suit on the back. Provided of course the photo isn't manipulated.
Oh sure, you can pretty well verify something like "he is wearing a bulletproof jacket". The problems can come from ascribing motivations and drawing other conclusions from this. I mean, I'm reasonably confident that Zelenskyy is also wearing bulletproof gear and trying not to get killed, but people draw very different conclusions about this from the context.
Speaking of Zelenskyy, "Servant of the People" has become available for viewing here and it's quite good. It only took me until episode 2 to completely disassociate the character on screen from "this actor actually did become President", perhaps because Kyiv isn't damaged by bombs.
Quote from: drogulus on June 03, 2022, 07:24:12 AM
Ukraine is increasingly integrated with its major allies via the advanced weapons systems it has been provided, just as Finland is with the F-35 and its network components. This is NATO without the paperwork. Now, I wouldn't deny that the words on paper have value. I'm just sayin' is all.
Scandinavia including Finland now can field >150 F35s + a substantial amount of Swedish JAS Gripens fully NATO interoperable. And a significant numer of F16s and F18s while some of the F-35 are going online. Norways 52 are more or less fully operational now.
Quote from: The new erato on June 04, 2022, 05:23:03 AM
Scandinavia including Finland now can field >150 F35s + a substantial amount of Swedish JAS Gripens fully NATO interoperable. And a significant numer of F16s and F18s while some of the F-35 are going online. Norways 52 are more or less fully operational now.
How much experience do Scandinavian air forces have in modern air combat?
Quote from: Todd on June 04, 2022, 05:48:24 AM
How much experience do Scandinavian air forces have in modern air combat?
Depends upon what you mean by modern. As in the last 10-15 years, few have. Including most US pilots I'd guess.There wasn't much air combat in Afghanistan. And I guess a pilots operational career seldom is more than 15 years.
Quote from: The new erato on June 04, 2022, 05:54:14 AM
Depends upon whta you mean by modern. As in the last 1-150 years, few have. Including most US pilots I'd guess.There wasn't much air combat in Afghanistan. And I guess a pilots operational career seldom is more than 15 years.
I was referring to the air forces themselves, as operational branches. Institutional knowledge and experience leads to enhanced training, planning, etc. The US Air Force and the US Navy - the first and second largest air forces in the world - have, by far, the most experience in the world. The Russians have the second most experience in recent years, in places like Syria, where the US also operated - illegally under US law. And this excludes the ongoing training. People often tout numeric values as some type of proxy for effective power, but countries that rely on numbers alone are just paper tigers. Most non-American NATO countries have been put in a place of near complete dependence on the US for logistics, etc. The design of the F-35 program is the best example of that.
One byproduct of shutting Turkey out of the F-35 program, as well as some other operations and programs, is that Turkey has developed a not inconsiderable air capability, though it obviously lacks the ability to project power. Only one country can effectively do that.
Of course, chest pounding about military capacity means nothing when bullets start flying. After the first Gulf War, the F-117 was held up as a great system with a perfect record. And then came the Balkans, and the Russians figured out how to shoot one down. Talk of building up capacities, expanding alliances, hardware counts, and so forth seem rather reminiscent of 1912 or thereabouts. Who's building the next dreadnaught, and all that. That's not to say we are the verge of a new world war, just that it's the same old stuff, year after year, century after century.
A burning Orthodox monastery is going to be very bad press in the motherland, but naturally the Ukranian army is to be blamed...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUZ17FRX0AAOI8h?format=jpg&name=small) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUZ18XVXoAAsGFF?format=jpg&name=small)
All Saints Monastery of Svyatogorsk Lavra
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 09:35:46 AMA burning Orthodox monastery is going to be very bad press in the motherland, but naturally the Ukranian army is to be blamed...
Run of the mill war propaganda. This type of thing happens in every war. Is there any reason at all to believe that such propaganda would not be used by Europeans in a European war? What is unique and special about this incident?
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 09:35:46 AM
A burning Orthodox monastery is going to be very bad press in the motherland, but naturally the Ukranian army is to be blamed...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUZ17FRX0AAOI8h?format=jpg&name=small) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUZ18XVXoAAsGFF?format=jpg&name=small)
All Saints Monastery of Svyatogorsk Lavra
It's the church next to the Sviatohirsk / Svyatogorsk monastery, that I already mentioned being bombarded earlier in the war, when refugees were taking shelter there, in the monastery.
Quote from: MusicTurner on March 13, 2022, 01:01:36 AM
Sviatohirsk monastery, one of the most spectacular sights in Eastern Ukraine, apparently experiencing Russian bombings. Monks and 500 refugees there, according to reports. Damage has been limited, at least so far, but there are wounded and hospitalized.
Cf. also
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1533056045068828673
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1533056047828635648
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1533057629395767296
https://ukrainetrek.com/blog/architecture/the-wooden-monastery-of-all-saints-in-svyatogorsk-lavra/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatohirsk
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 09:35:46 AM
A burning Orthodox monastery is going to be very bad press in the motherland, but naturally the Ukranian army is to be blamed...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUZ17FRX0AAOI8h?format=jpg&name=small) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUZ18XVXoAAsGFF?format=jpg&name=small)
All Saints Monastery of Svyatogorsk Lavra
Those damned Ukrainian Nazis!
Quote from: Todd on June 04, 2022, 09:43:55 AM
Run of the mill war propaganda. This type of thing happens in every war. Is there any reason at all to believe that such propaganda would not be uesed by Europeans in a European war? What is unique and special about this incident?
What's special is how this will resonate in Russia, particularly considering the narrative that has been attached by Russian propaganda to this invasion
But what are you suggesting? That this didn't happen, or that both parties are accusing each other by way of propaganda?
Considering the very limited artillery resources the Ukranians have and the indiscriminate way Russian artillery has been operating, chances are much in favour of Russian artillery actually causing this. Just another Russian blooper, militarily totally insignificant but politically painful.
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 10:27:10 AM
What's special is how this will resonate in Russia, particularly considering the narrative that has been attached by Russian propaganda to this invasion
"Even if there's a nuclear holocaust, we're goin' up to hebben!"
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 10:27:10 AMWhat's special is how this will resonate in Russia, particularly considering the narrative that has been attached by Russian propaganda to this invasion
I am unclear of the extent of the Russian state's control of information that reaches the Russian public. On this very forum it has been stated that the Russians control the local narrative and the people do not know what is going on. At the same time, on this very forum, the opposite is stated or at least insinuated. So, does the Russian state control the narrative in Russia or not? In either case, how do you
know?
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 10:27:10 AMBut what are you suggesting? That this didn't happen, or that both parties are accusing each other by way of propaganda?
Oh yes, it happened. All manner of crimes have occurred. Thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, more. Murder, rape, wanton destruction of property, etc. All wars are riddled with crimes. It is conceivable that war crime charges akin to those used to prosecute those who destroyed relics in Timbuktu could be brought in this instance, and others like it. First, Ukraine needs to "win", whatever that looks like, or at least capture the perpetrators or a sufficient patsy to stand (show) trial.
As to war propaganda, this war very clearly demonstrates the pervasiveness of propaganda, for or against. All day, every day, everywhere - on TV, in print, on the radio, on the internet.
Quote from: Todd on June 04, 2022, 11:15:55 AM
I am unclear of the extent of the Russian state's control of information that reaches the Russian public. On this very forum it has been stated that the Russians control the local narrative and the people do not know what is going on. At the same time, on this very forum, the opposite is stated or at least insinuated. So, does the Russian state control the narrative in Russia or not? In either case, how do you know?
Well, I cannot account for everything that - in your assessment - has been stated, or insinuated, on
this very forumThe situation is surely unclear, but to me it seems that Russian state control of the war narrative is dominant but not absolute. Due to modern media there is reduced ideological grip on the young, and then there are personal contacts between men at the front and their families home.
There are many reports of significant numbers of soldiers on leave that are refusing to go back to the front, of draft dodging and of desertations.
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 10:44:11 PM
Well, I cannot account for everything that - in your assessment - has been stated, or insinuated, on this very forum
The situation is unclear, but it seems that Russian state control of the war narrative is dominant, but not absolute. Due to modern media there is reduced ideological grip on the young, and then there are personal contacts between men the front and their families home.
There are many reports significant numbers of soldiers on leave that are refusing to go back to the front, of draft dodging and of desertations.
That's true. A further, large number of critical media has been closed, or chose to close down, in recent months. But a few, and these are indeed a few, critical voices, often with a criticism that is discreet, can still be found, especially if you look for them, which most people often don't want to do however. Most notable among the closures were domestic Novaya Gazeta (the editor, a Nobel Prize Winner, was also attacked on a train ride), Radio Echo of Moscow, domestic Moscow Times, TV Rain/Dozhd, Kholod, and Diskurs. Meduza closed down in Moscow in 2021.
RFERL thus listed 20 critical media on April 1st, many of which closed down, or now work from abroad:
"The 20 Russian News Outlets You Need To Read Before They Get The Ax"https://www.rferl.org/a/twenty-russian-news-outlets-you-need-to-read-before-they-get-the-axe/25317371.html
The law against 'discrediting the armed forces' is a strong silencer, and has resulted in 1000s of legal cases raised by the authorities; here it says 2000 by mid-May, but I've seen 3000+ mentioned later, by Russian sources https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-war-discrediting-armed-forces-law/31875273.html
BBCs Steve Rosenberg still does reporting from Moscow, and for many years, he's done some very brief summaries of selected content in Russian newspapers, bought in his local kiosk. Roughly once a week or so. Here's one very recent example, where the media discipline is obvious ('
When the local Ukrainians don't welcome our soldiers with flowers, it's only because they are afraid to do so'). He'll normally try to find dissent, or at least nuances. https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1532649420839440385
Julia Davis looks at Russian propaganda television & is regularly finding horrible and bizarre content there. But she almost only presents the most extreme views, with no analyzing except from disgust. Yet it is remarkable that such material is presented, promoted (and even just accepted) in mainstream, prime-time television there. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews
Access to most Western media such as BBC, Die Welt, Radio Free Europe, Voice of America, CBC etc. was banned from quite early on in the war. Later on, more bans followed, even Danish 'Politiken' newspaper, that had started a section in Russian on the internet.
Among the latest initiatives, the Russian authorities have apparently begun work on limiting access to alternative information via VPNs (that can make you look anonymously at Western media websites, for example); the number of VPN users has gone up a lot since the war started, especially among young people.
Also, there's been rumours of the authorities maybe blocking the internet generally, or 'just' Google or Youtube, but it hasn't come to this so far. They've done 'emergency exercises', where they closed down the internet from the outside world, as a test. The started, Russian alternative RuTube hasn't been going well or become popular, however. Their search engine Yandex has more censorship.
Plus they've started accusing BigTech for spreading dangerous information, and demanded that Wikipedia shut down critical content; apparently, these are ongoing cases.
All in all, the censorship is likely to get just worse.
Quote from: Todd on June 04, 2022, 06:16:03 AM
I was referring to the air forces themselves, as operational branches. Institutional knowledge and experience leads to enhanced training, planning, etc. The US Air Force and the US Navy - the first and second largest air forces in the world - have, by far, the most experience in the world. The Russians have the second most experience in recent years, in places like Syria, where the US also operated - illegally under US law. And this excludes the ongoing training. People often tout numeric values as some type of proxy for effective power, but countries that rely on numbers alone are just paper tigers. Most non-American NATO countries have been put in a place of near complete dependence on the US for logistics, etc. The design of the F-35 program is the best example of that.
One byproduct of shutting Turkey out of the F-35 program, as well as some other operations and programs, is that Turkey has developed a not inconsiderable air capability, though it obviously lacks the ability to project power. Only one country can effectively do that. No plan survives contact with the enemy.
Of course, chest pounding about military capacity means nothing when bullets start flying. After the first Gulf War, the F-117 was held up as a great system with a perfect record. And then came the Balkans, and the Russians figured out how to shoot one down. Talk of building up capacities, expanding alliances, hardware counts, and so forth seem rather reminiscent of 1912 or thereabouts. Who's building the next dreadnaught, and all that. That's not to say we are the verge of a new world war, just that it's the same old stuff, year after year, century after century.
We bombed Libya unfortunately. And Russian air experience from Syria seems not to have prepared them for Ukraine. I.e. their pilots receive less than half the yearly training hours that is deemed neccessary and is a minimum in NATO. But I concede you have some points I do't necessarily disagree with..
Obviously, Norwegian and Danish pilots often train in the US, including obligatory training and stationing in the US, and including combat training with American pilots. The Danish F35s are in the US for a long time due to that, before being transferred to DK. DK participated in actual bombings in Jugoslavia, Libya, Iraq & Syria, by the 100s.
The current, annual BALTOPS 22 exercise in the Baltic sea has participation of an American ~carrier ('Kearsarge') and local air forces as well, and air combat training
https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/baltops-22
As regards Ukraine, there's been little actual air combat, most airplanes are lost due to shooting from the ground. The Ukrainians have succeeded in hiding some planes from destruction, and some sources say that they still have around 20, in spite of Russian claims of complete erasure at the start of the war.
Here's one listing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 10:44:11 PMDue to modern media there is reduced ideological grip on the young
The implication of this is that there is greater ideological grip on older Russians. In any case, how do you
know?
Western press reports and social media "reports" are incomplete, sometimes or often or always inaccurate, and pretty much always biased. Contemporary war propaganda, sometimes called "information warfare" is pervasive and sometimes or often or always clouds perception.
Sometimes facts are unpleasant. Russia controls about a fifth of the land area of Ukraine now while the Russian Navy controls the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. In order to "defeat" Russia, the war will have to last longer and tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars in war support will have to be provided to Ukraine, and thousands more people must die. If the war continues into the fall and winter months, which looks likely under current conditions, then global food shortages will become more acute, leading to famine elsewhere on earth. It appears many people are happy to squander lives of people in other countries to achieve aims that cannot be achieved. Press reporting and tweets do not change facts on the ground or in the sea.
Quote from: The new erato on June 05, 2022, 02:04:09 AMAnd Russian air experience from Syria seems not to have prepared them for Ukraine.
Based on reports in military press outlets, the types of sorties flown in Syria were different than those flown in Ukraine, so they did not reflect conditions on the ground, and command and control in the much more complex Ukrainian theater was lacking. But the Russians do have combat experience beyond most pilots for most militaries. Many people with little or no military experience attempt to draw conclusions about Russian military capacity from the war so far, basing it in part on the triumphalist nature of press reporting, which is something of a mistake. Triumphalist proclamations about the weakness and ineptitude of the Russians could lead to deadly miscalculations.
While it is unfortunately true that Norway bombed Libya, it is also true that Norwegian forces did what they were ordered to do by other countries (https://sciencenorway.no/conflict-defence-industry-forskningno/norwegian-air-force-left-decisions-to-others-in-libya/1383447). Most NATO countries do not have the capacity to engage in complex operations on their own, and the ones that do end up needing direct American support in the end. It is also worth noting that NATO allies do not end up receiving the same level of training and hardware as American forces. Well, the UK does in many instances, but the UK is an English-speaking ally and receives preferential treatment.
U.S. Warship Arrives in Stockholm for Military Exercises, and as a Warning (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/04/us/politics/uss-kearsarge-stockholm.html)
Yet more war propaganda, this time in the form of a show of force. It also demonstrates the vast disparity in capabilities between the US and the rest of NATO.
Quote from: Micael Bydén, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed ForcesNo one in Stockholm can miss that there is this big American ship here in our city. There are more capabilities on this ship than I could gather in a garrison.
The US has seven more ships just like that one. And then there are the aircraft carriers.
(The Gray Lady ran the report yesterday, and initially labelled the Kearsarge a battleship. Oops.)
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 05, 2022, 02:19:48 AM
Obviously, Norwegian and Danish pilots often train in the US, including obligatory training and stationing in the US, and including combat training with American pilots. The Danish F35s are in the US for a long time due to that, before being transferred to DK. DK participated in actual bombings in Jugoslavia, Libya, Iraq & Syria, by the 100s.
The Danish Air Force has ~115 aircraft. One US carrier fields up to 75 aircraft. The US has eleven carriers. And then eight active amphibious assault ships like the Kearsarge. And then an air force. The US military has ~13,000 aircraft. The Danish annual military budget is less than one third the cost of one US aircraft carrier. Denmark is a non-entity militarily. It would be good to see the martial eagerness contained in your posts displayed by the governments of the UK, France, and Germany, the European powers that really matter.
The crank media will divert attention from the news to how other media covers it. Let's call it the "media bias bias". The crankish view of war involves diversion to profiteering and propaganda or something else. It doesn't work because it's obvious that no serious claim is being made about how defense industry profits should be subject to an extra degree of socialism or some other -ism, or that propaganda about a war makes the war itself unfit for discussion.
On the subject of media control, Russia controls what's seen on local TV, which is the way most news gets to the majority of people. Many millions of Russians use VPNs to get news from sources outside the country. My VPN no longer has servers in Russia because they won't obey Russian censorship laws. So Russians have to connect to servers outside the country that are still unblocked as of the last time I checked. There is no contradiction between the facts of local control and the use of VPNs to get around it.
I'll bet the VPN services are quite profitable. Shall we discuss it?
Quote from: Que on June 04, 2022, 10:44:11 PM
Well, I cannot account for everything that - in your assessment - has been stated, or insinuated, on this very forum
The situation is surely unclear, but to me it seems that Russian state control of the war narrative is dominant but not absolute.
This is so simple and obvious, one wonders how it did not occur to the questioner.
Quote from: Todd on June 05, 2022, 06:25:36 AM
The Danish Air Force has ~115 aircraft. One US carrier fields up to 75 aircraft. The US has eleven carriers. And then eight active amphibious assault ships like the Kearsarge. And then an air force. The US military has ~13,000 aircraft. The Danish annual military budget is less than one third the cost of one US aircraft carrier. Denmark is a non-entity militarily. It would be good to see the martial eagerness contained in your posts displayed by the governments of the UK, France, and Germany, the European powers that really matter.
It was merely an addressing of claims about the lack of training or of war experience in the Danish or Norwegian air forces. Of course, if they're insignificant or non-entities, then even stating such claims would in itself be largely irrelevant, somehow the result of a whim.
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 05, 2022, 09:03:08 AM
It was merely an addressing of claims about the lack of training or of war experience in the Danish or Norwegian air forces. Of course, if they're insignificant or non-entities, then even stating such claims would in itself be largely irrelevant, somehow the result of a whim.
Denmark and Norway, and almost all other member countries, are small and insignificant in the context of NATO and its ability to act as an effective alliance and deterrent force. It bears repeating, over and over, until all NATO members meet their obligations, which will of course never happen. The only indispensable nation in NATO is the US, operationally and organizationally.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on June 05, 2022, 08:08:56 AM
This is so simple and obvious, one wonders how it did not occur to the questioner.
There remains, of course, the possibility that the q. was not posed in good faith.
As I understand how NATO works, the comparatively small forces in Europe act as the first line of defense, with reinforcements arriving in days or weeks from the US. The quality of these small forces is not in doubt.
Traditionally the expectation was that Russia would have the the first mover advantage. The Ukraine war has shown the Russians might not even have that. If it's true that Russia is preparing to deploy ancient T-62 tanks in the fight, they may be in even worse shape than I previously thought. Right now it looks like Russia is relying on the superior quantity of artillery.
I refuse to predict that Ukraine will soon have the capacity to destroy the Kerch bridge connecting Crimea to Russia.
I think they could do it with their old timey Flankers but they might lose most or all of them in the process.
Over at Grim Reapers Cap and the boys have run sims using various means to destroy the bridge. Even with more advanced weapons it would be difficult.
Russia could have invaded Finland before Ukraine, correct? I mean Finland isn't in NATO and it's got a small military. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/tongue.gif)
Well, actually it's not like that. It turns out that as a matter of topography it's Russia that is vulnerable. After a failed attack on Finland they would risk losing Karelia, which is insanely vulnerable.
It's not that this is something I expect to happen. I don't. The Russians got the Ukes super wrong for understandable reasons, and get the strength of Finland right because they are not that stupid.
A smart Finnish person says the Russian bases near Finland are practically empty. The Chinese are smelling blood in the water near Vladivostok. We live in interesting times.
European shipping firms 'making a mockery' of Russia sanctions as oil cargoes double (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/russia-ukraine-oil-sanctions-shipping-b2092658.html)
Quote from: Ben Chapman...after lobbying from shipping interests in Greece, Malta and Cyprus, EU-registered boats and companies will be allowed to continue moving oil from Russian ports to non-EU countries.
That means EU companies can continue to profit from facilitating transfers of Russian oil to countries such as India and China, which have proved to be willing buyers for the crude oil that Europe no longer wants...
Experts and campaigners warned that the failure of European leaders to stop EU-controlled ships carrying Russia's cargo would leave a gaping hole in the partial embargo...
Why Ukrainian forces are struggling to use hi-tech weapons (https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/956992/why-ukrainian-forces-are-struggling-to-use-hi-tech-weapons)
It seems that Russia's struggle in Ukraine hasn't deterred China:
China will 'start a war' if Taiwan declares independence, says defence minister (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/11/china-will-start-a-war-if-taiwan-declares-independence-says-defence-minister)
Japan is very concerned:
"With concerns mounting over China-Taiwan tensions, Japan's prime minister, Fumio Kishida, said in a keynote address to the summit that his government would consider acquiring a preemptive strike capability because "Ukraine today may be east Asia tomorrow".
The world must be "prepared for the emergence of an entity that tramples on the peace and security of other countries by force or threat without honouring the rules", he said. He did not mention China by name in his address, but repeatedly called for the "rules-based international order" to be upheld."
What is the Chines line of thinking? Now is the time - the west cannot fight at two fronts simultaneously? We better strike before Japan rearms? These Russians are fools, we can do much better? Probably... ::)
Quote from: Que on June 10, 2022, 10:31:53 PM
It seems that Russia's struggle in Ukraine hasn't deterred China:
China will 'start a war' if Taiwan declares independence, says defence minister (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/11/china-will-start-a-war-if-taiwan-declares-independence-says-defence-minister)
Japan is very concerned:
"With concerns mounting over China-Taiwan tensions, Japan's prime minister, Fumio Kishida, said in a keynote address to the summit that his government would consider acquiring a preemptive strike capability because "Ukraine today may be east Asia tomorrow".
The world must be "prepared for the emergence of an entity that tramples on the peace and security of other countries by force or threat without honouring the rules", he said. He did not mention China by name in his address, but repeatedly called for the "rules-based international order" to be upheld."
What is the Chines line of thinking? Now is the time - the west cannot fight at two fronts simultaneously? We better strike before Japan rearms? These Russians are fools, we can do much better? Probably... ::)
I was hoping the lesson was, rather, "our economy can't take a total shutdown." China has a lot of problems. I live in Japan btw. It'll be interesting to see if the U.S. (and the political party that has basically always been in charge of Japan) get their way and change the Japanese constitution to allow offensive war capabilities. Japan is in the top five in the world in military spending so it may be a nominal change only.
I definitely don't want to find out what such a war would be like. I wonder, though, what the strategies and tactics would be. China is a monster.
Quote from: milk on June 11, 2022, 03:08:49 AM
the political party that has basically always been in charge of Japan
The Liberal-Democratic Party, right?
Quote from: Que on June 10, 2022, 10:31:53 PMWhat is the Chinese line of thinking? Now is the time - the west cannot fight at two fronts simultaneously? We better strike before Japan rearms? These Russians are fools, we can do much better? Probably... ::)
The Chinese are posturing. Japan is posturing. The US is posturing. Biden's brief gaffe a few weeks back on Taiwan aside, there has been no formal change to US policy regarding Taiwan, which is purposely ambiguous. Will the US go to war or won't it? Keep 'em guessing. Taiwan is a smaller, more focused objective and presents significant challenges to defend. The Chinese have been watching and learning what happens in Ukraine, and now that the US essentially revealed the extent of its economic warfare tools, and how far it is willing to go (eg, involving central banks), the Chinese can prepare. That was a large blunder on the part of the US. The Chinese have purportedly expanded their capabilities regarding deterring American naval power - building very capable, but not battle-tested missiles than can supposedly evade Aegis cruiser defensive systems. If war breaks out, China is in a better position than Russia in some regards. It can theoretically engage in tit-for-tat economic warfare, shut down exports of all manner of products to the rest of the world, and it can seek to destroy or seize some very specific assets in Taiwan that can effectively cripple the global economy - eg, TSMC is a grand prize in such a war.
Your query about whether "the west" can fight on two fronts is an interesting one. The US can, with significant economic and military strain. The UK and France have significant enough assets so that they can directly assist, and regional partners can assist, but other European countries in general can do nothing in such a war, other than follow along with US sanctions and perhaps send token forces to show solidarity, for what that's worth. Which is basically nothing.
Quote from: milk on June 11, 2022, 03:08:49 AMIt'll be interesting to see if the U.S. (and the political party that has basically always been in charge of Japan) get their way and change the Japanese constitution to allow offensive war capabilities.
Take a look at Izumo class "destroyers". Japan has been slowly building offensive capabilities. Large-scale offensive military action by China in the region will move Japan to a greater degree of mobilization.
Quote from: Florestan on June 11, 2022, 03:51:03 AM
The Liberal-Democratic Party, right?
Yes. LDP. It's not popular to change this constitutional provision: article 9. But they've always pushed for it and the U.S., who wrote their constitution, also wants it changed.
Quote from: milk on June 11, 2022, 06:43:21 AM
It's not popular to change this constitutional provision: article 9.
It's not always a good idea to wait for military readiness to be popular. However, Japan will continue to bolster its military. It should be known that Japan will have a home grown stealth fighter. It was inspired (heh!) by the YF-23 American prototype that lost out to the F-22 as the premier air to air fighter in the US military.
(https://s3.amazonaws.com/the-drive-staging/message-editor%2F1530897464297-yf-23-3.jpg)
Japan has helicopter carriers that convert to aircraft carriers when F-35s land on them. This is without the benefit of constitutional paperwork or popularity yet.
WWI was famous for readiness, so many peace loving countries decided in the interwar years that it was the readiness itself that caused war, and so many countries dispensed with it until very late in the '30s.
The idea that readiness is a provocation has made a comeback recently. One might ask "compared to
what??".
The Chinese see threats as low in cost. We won't sanction them for making them, and it satisfies the CCP imperative to keep focus on an external threat.
Thinking of China I recall what Le Carre wrote once about the Soviet knight dying in its armor. Of course that was a novel.
Quote from: Todd on June 11, 2022, 06:09:01 AM
That was a large blunder on the part of the US.
Well, damned if you don't as well, one could argue.
Quote from: milk on June 11, 2022, 10:01:03 PM
Well, damned if you don't as well, one could argue.
Mostly damned since we did. China is the more significant long-term challenge and potential threat to US power and security. The fate of Ukraine has no bearing on the security of the US.
Something else to consider as the war drags on:
Russia's Nuclear Power Hegemony
The West Is Dependent on Moscow for More Than Just Gas and Oil (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-06-08/russias-nuclear-power-hegemony?check_logged_in=1)
We might have started earlier to train Ukes on modern weapons, one more instance of of avoiding "readiness provocation". We are allowed to have foresight as long as we don't use it very much. For example the US/NATO knew about the coming invasion and informed Ukraine and the world, but the process of taking concrete actions to allow the Ukes to defend themselves was conducted on a slow and incremental basis.
The world is awash in F-16s, and Uke pilots could have started training on them months ago, and by now they would be fielding modern air to air and air to ground weapons on a plane that's still on a par with modern Russian planes.
We've now reached a stage where the war is dominated by artillery exchanges where Russia has a great advantage in numbers, such that the growing qualitative advantage the Ukes are building is not sufficient to overcome the sheer volume of fire from Russian batteries.
Quote from: philoctetes on June 12, 2022, 08:54:20 AM
The whole thing was a fool's journey from the perspective of the long-term strategic prospects of the United States.
Yep. At least US defense firms will enjoy bumper short-term profits. Maybe they will even spread the wealth around during this war.
I get it, the Japanese are wrongsters just like the Europeans, Australians and South Koreans. All you have to do to be guilty of defense provocation is to ally with the US and each other.
The degree of burden sharing in the alliance system will never be equal on a per capita basis. I don't mind, since the US would suffer greatly from the collapse of the economic interconnections for which the present crisis is a foretaste.
I foresee (as do all my fellow Brainiacs) the US will glue the "new new world order" out of the same set of parts as the old new world whatsis, give or take. It's not going to be a pleasant ride, but it won't be any pleasanter if the US decides it's interests are no longer its own, but belong to some other entity yet to be named. One can't readily craft policy relying on the effective leadership of a Mystery Guest.
I note that the objections to US leadership of the world alliance include both that other countries don't spend enough to maintain it and the US profits from the extra work it does. It strikes me, though, that if our allies spent more US profits would undoubtedly rise. Should I be worried?
NATO chief: Turkey has "legitimate concerns" over terrorism (https://apnews.com/article/jens-stoltenberg-sauli-niinisto-helsinki-finland-nato-a216940af13de76dbf058d8147c0bcf1)
Quote from: Todd on June 12, 2022, 06:29:27 AM
Mostly damned since we did. China is the more significant long-term challenge and potential threat to US power and security. The fate of Ukraine has no bearing on the security of the US.
That's an argument. How do you "steel-man" the other side? I'm not deeply well-read on all these implications. I assume there's a case to be made from people who are. It depends on the lessons that are drawn as I agree China is the real threat. What if it turns out that the Russian economy is crippled for decades to come and/or Putin loses power? Is it impossible?
Quote from: milk on June 12, 2022, 04:36:31 PMWhat if it turns out that the Russian economy is crippled for decades to come and/or Putin loses power?
Putin could lose power before he dies, but that seems unlikely. But he will not live forever. Russia is slowly taking more and more territory in Ukraine, and looks likely to achieve at least some of its war aims, despite all the hullabaloo in The West, and all the money and weapons that were thrown away. People on all sides need to think about what negotiations will look like.
The West really should think seriously about the risks associated with trying to impose long-term economic hardship on Russia. There are a variety of potential unpleasant outcomes. One is a more destabilized Russia where Putin's replacement, sooner or later, is even more informed by nationalism and anti-Western thinking, and still has a massive military and nuclear arsenal at his disposal. Another very bad outcome is that keeping Russia under severe sanctions for years or decades could backfire, leading to further and then accelerating weakening of the dollar, a more widespread shift to using other currencies for energy trading, and the long-threatened establishment of an alternative to SWIFT, be it CIPS or something else. Many countries are content to buy Russian energy despite US demands not to, and more will do so as it becomes clear that even the US does not really have the power to unilaterally impose its will. Most of the world is lukewarm or hostile to the policies pursued to bolster the "rules-based order". China and India, comprising a few billion people, are happy to work with Russia. Many other countries are as well. And duplicitous Europeans bypass sanctions and happily work with Russia as well. See the story about shipping companies. Continuation of current trends will see the erosion of American influence, power, and policy options. The American Empire may accelerate its own diminution. (The US is too powerful and wealthy to simply disappear anytime soon, so I cannot say it will lead to its own demise.) The United States has overextended itself militarily, given practical political limits (ie, full-scale mobilization is not possible) and economically. Fortunately for Americans alive today, China will not replace the US as a global hegemon with unchallenged reach since the US exists, and the transition away from even the current level of US global dominance will take decades, so many Americans can continue to believe in America's greatness for years to come. I mean, it's not like the US is a European country, or anything that dire.
Quote from: Todd on June 12, 2022, 05:12:43 PM
Putin could lose power before he dies, but that seems unlikely. But he will not live forever. Russia is slowly taking more and more territory in Ukraine, and looks likely to achieve at least some of its war aims, despite all the hullabaloo in The West, and all the money and weapons that were thrown away. People on all sides need to think about what negotiations will look like.
The West really should think seriously about the risks associated with trying to impose long-term economic hardship on Russia. There are a variety of potential unpleasant outcomes. One is a more destabilized Russia where Putin's replacement, sooner or later, is even more informed by nationalism and anti-Western thinking, and still has a massive military and nuclear arsenal at his disposal. Another very bad outcome is that keeping Russia under severe sanctions for years or decades could backfire, leading to further and then accelerating weakening of the dollar, a more widespread shift to using other currencies for energy trading, and the long-threatened establishment of an alternative to SWIFT, be it CIPS or something else. Many countries are content to buy Russian energy despite US demands not to, and more will do so as it becomes clear that even the US does not really have the power to unilaterally impose its will. Most of the world is lukewarm or hostile to the policies pursued to bolster the "rules-based order". China and India, comprising a few billion people, are happy to work with Russia. Many other countries are as well. And duplicitous Europeans bypass sanctions and happily work with Russia as well. See the story about shipping companies. Continuation of current trends will see the erosion of American influence, power, and policy options. The American Empire may accelerate its own diminution. (The US is too powerful and wealthy to simply disappear anytime soon, so I cannot say it will lead to its own demise.) The United States has overextended itself militarily, given practical political limits (ie, full-scale mobilization is not possible) and economically. Fortunately for Americans alive today, China will not replace the US as a global hegemon with unchallenged reach since the US exists, and the transition away from even the current level of US global dominance will take decades, so many Americans can continue to believe in America's greatness for years to come. I mean, it's not like the US is a European country, or anything that dire.
Is this steel-manning the other side? Yes. You have a strong argument. I'm sure there's an counter argument to be made.
Quote from: Todd on June 11, 2022, 06:09:01 AM
The Chinese have been watching and learning what happens in Ukraine, and now that the US essentially revealed the extent of its economic warfare tools, and how far it is willing to go (eg, involving central banks), the Chinese can prepare. That was a large blunder on the part of the US.
Does China need resources from the outside to keep its economy going?
It's better to do now what will otherwise be done later at a higher cost in Poland and the Baltic states. These countries can be saved from the fate of Ukraine, but only if we give up on the idea that defending Europe is somehow riskier than not defending it. As for all the associated bad outcomes, they are here and will continue.
Quote from: milk on June 12, 2022, 05:20:15 PM
Does China need resources from the outside to keep its economy going?
Yes, they need food, dollars to buy it, and skilled workers to work cheap like it's 1999. At least Russia has food.
Quote from: drogulus on June 13, 2022, 03:09:34 PM
It's better to do now what will otherwise be done later at a higher cost in Poland and the Baltic states. These countries can be saved from the fate of Ukraine, but only if we give up on the idea that defending Europe is somehow riskier than not defending it. As for all the associated bad outcomes, they are here and will continue.
Yes, they need food, dollars to buy it, and skilled workers to work cheap like it's 1999. At least Russia has food.
I rather think they cannot totally sanction-proof their economy. I know it's true that they own a lot of pieces of economies around Asia and Africa. But I wonder if the upside to all this is that countries like Vietnam will keep strengthening their ties with the U.S. At the same time, they (the Chinese leadership and their internet trolls) are unloved and forever complaining for it. Maybe they can't really afford to do much more than bluster? Are they willing to roll the dice? If China moves on Taiwan, I think the choice that the U.S., Japan, and other countries have is stark.
Quote from: drogulus on June 13, 2022, 03:09:34 PM
It's better to do now what will otherwise be done later at a higher cost in Poland and the Baltic states. These countries can be saved from the fate of Ukraine, but only if we give up on the idea that defending Europe is somehow riskier than not defending it. As for all the associated bad outcomes, they are here and will continue.
Amen to that.
Quote from: Todd on June 11, 2022, 06:09:01 AM
The US can, with significant economic and military strain. The UK and France have significant enough assets so that they can directly assist, and regional partners can assist, but other European countries in general can do nothing in such a war, other than follow along with US sanctions and perhaps send token forces to show solidarity, for what that's worth. Which is basically nothing.
Judging individual European countries on their military "usefulness" is a denial of the fact the Europe as a whole is a key element in the global system from which the US derives its wealth and power. Yes, as I acknowledged before, China is going to be a (even) larger threat. But thay doesn't make fending off the Russian threat less important, on the contrary.
As Europeans we are fortunate to have Biden in power. The Republicans under Trump would have dropped Ukraine - and the rest of Europe - like a brick. And they still will, once they get back in power. Europe needs to prepare for that moment.
Quote from: Que on June 14, 2022, 12:33:06 AMJudging individual European countries on their military "usefulness" is a denial of the fact the Europe as a whole is a key element in the global system from which the US derives its wealth and power. Yes, as I acknowledged before, China is going to be a (even) larger threat.
In the context of combat operations, military power is the primary determinant of an ally's value, and only allies that field men and matériel are useful in this context. The secondary determinant of an ally's value is the ability to provide significant economic support beyond military support. Most European countries fail completely in both areas, and only a small number maintain an ability to project power at all, and then only with logistical support from the US. The primary defensive value most European countries represent is a captive market for US military gear.
The US does exploit European markets, as it should, and it does continue to occupy the continent, as it looks like it unfortunately must, but from an economic standpoint Europe is one market, and the costs associated with the current international system are growing, and as the current war demonstrates, the possibility of yet another European war acts as a drain on US resources and as a distraction from more important long-term concerns.
Quote from: Que on June 14, 2022, 12:33:06 AMBut thay doesn't make fending off the Russian threat less important, on the contrary.
From the standpoint of US national security, Russian military actions of the 21st Century have not put the US in danger, nor have Russian economic policies had the same type of impact to US economic interests in some areas as have Chinese economic policies. China is more important to US security and economic well-being than Russia right now, and its importance will only continue to grow, while Russia's slowly declines. US policy makers were wise to diversify sources of critical resources, including all forms of imported energy, significantly reducing reliance on any one nation for physical supply, even if global pricing does potentially impact the cost of energy temporarily. Europeans never learned that lesson, and Europeans confuse their security for US security. Unfortunately, some US policymakers still confuse European security and US security, too. They are not the same thing.
As has been the case since 2014, no one has explained why Ukraine is particularly important to the US. Why are the tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians more important to the US than the hundreds of thousands of dead Yemeni?
Quote from: Que on June 14, 2022, 12:33:06 AMAs Europeans we are fortunate to have Biden in power. The Republicans under Trump would have dropped Ukraine - and the rest of Europe - like a brick. And they still will, once they get back in power. Europe needs to prepare for that moment.
This response perfectly demonstrates Europe's complete dependence on the US for security, and it also misjudges the militarism of both American parties, as well as US politics more generally. People forget or never knew that under Obama the US did not even provide material support to Ukraine, which began only under Trump, and at the same time Trump is, in Chomsky's words, the only world statesman who put forth an actual path to negotiated settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian War. It is understandable why people don't address these facts. They show that the politics are more complex. Remove Trump from the picture, and the policy response changes. A more conventional Republican president with a more traditional national security team - let's say a President DeSantis and Secretary of Defense Cotton - would likely be more bellicose than the Biden administration. There is no chance they would be less so. Both US parties are war parties, and the few voices for restraint are basically marginalized. As an example, look at the support for the foolish, unnecessary expansion of NATO in Congress.
It would of course be far preferable for the US to expend far less in defense of the wealthiest, highest income region of the world. But that will likely not happen anytime soon. As the war has progressed, growing splits in policy approaches in the European continent have appeared, and hopes for massive new outlays and a new military policy in Europe have waned since the excitable first weeks of the war, when rhetoric flourished and promises came cheaper than normal. Same old, same old.
Pope Francis again suggests NATO may have provoked Russian war in Ukraine (https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/06/14/italy-vatican-pope-francis-russia-war-ukraine-nato/5711655218266/)
Erdogan probably wants to hinder Sweden and Finland joining NATO until elections next year. It seems he plans to win the election by bragging about blocking Sweden and Finland to his mislead supporters and then after the election victory change his tone, because the rest of the NATO won't allow Turkey to dictate alone how NATO expands.
Putin's stagflation revenge: Everyone said his war would destroy Russia's economy but he's killing America's too (https://fortune.com/2022/06/18/stagflation-putin-us-europe-fuel-prices/)
Looks like the war is having the unexpected (?) consequence of improperly redefining economic concepts and terms. Oh well. (Mark Zandi's "analysis", very well-timed and media savvy, somehow left out fifteen years of lax monetary policy and over two years of excessive fiscal stimulus as the real causes of inflation, but there you go.) At least the article points out the self-harming nature of the sanctions imposed on Russia.
US profits from a well defended Europe are considerable. Buying and selling between and among system partners bootstraps everyone to greater affluence.
The notion that the relationship between the US and its alliance partners is a burden comes under what I call the "fallacy of absolute cost". The fallacy claims that dollars spent on ideologically unloved purposes cease to function like other dollars once they arrive in the hands of whoever gets them to, say, defend Estonia or pay the medical bills of a formerly uninsured poor person. Unlike other dollars they somehow don't continue circulating through the economy. It's not just that the checks are not cashed, the funds disappear completely!
It's important that the claim be more like a buried premise. The fact that benefits and costs of defending the world economic system are intertwined the way they are might expose some arguments to more clarity than they can tolerate.
From the Gray Lady: French Nuclear Power Crisis Frustrates Europe's Push to Quit Russian Energy (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/business/france-nuclear-power-russia.html)
Cheech and Chong were right, things are tough all over.
Quote from: Todd on June 18, 2022, 10:45:26 AM
From the Gray Lady: French Nuclear Power Crisis Frustrates Europe's Push to Quit Russian Energy (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/business/france-nuclear-power-russia.html)
Cheech and Chong were right, things are tough all over.
And yet, their collective career was up in smoke decades ago ( can't resist a pun, even if it groans ).
Quote from: LKB on June 18, 2022, 06:05:33 PM
And yet, their collective career was up in smoke decades ago ( can't resist a pun, even if it groans ).
And of course, before Cheech and Chong, there were Pico and Alvarado:
NATO leader says Ukraine war against Russia could last for 'years': Live updates (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/06/19/ukraine-russia-live-updates/7674260001/)
Mr Stoltenberg does not instill confidence. The war has already been going on for years. There is no rational basis to think it will end soon. The West is dead set against a negotiated settlement.
Quote from: Que on June 14, 2022, 12:33:06 AM
Amen to that.
Judging individual European countries on their military "usefulness" is a denial of the fact the Europe as a whole is a key element in the global system from which the US derives its wealth and power. Yes, as I acknowledged before, China is going to be a (even) larger threat. But thay doesn't make fending off the Russian threat less important, on the contrary.
As Europeans we are fortunate to have Biden in power. The Republicans under Trump would have dropped Ukraine - and the rest of Europe - like a brick. And they still will, once they get back in power. Europe needs to prepare for that moment.
Biden was a great help to Afghanistan.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on June 19, 2022, 10:50:42 AM
Biden was a great help to Afghanistan.
The war in Afghanistan was started by the Bush administration, just like that other war you dislike so much (and rightfully so): the one in Iraq.
The issue of Kaliningrad has come up sooner than I expected:
Russia threatens retaliation as Lithuania bans goods transit to Kaliningrad (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/20/russia-condemns-lithuania-transit-ban-some-goods-kaliningrad)
But a strategically located Russian enclave of non-Russian origin that is surrounded by NATO territory was bound to become an issue at some point...
What looms in the background is Russian anxiety about the prospect of their Baltic Fleet, which has a base in Kaliningrad, being surrounded by NATO after Sweden and Finland join the alliance.
Pussy Riot points out that Tchaikovsky didn't invade Ukraine:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/21/cutting-works-by-russian-artists-is-stupid-says-pussy-riot-member
Quote from: Que on June 20, 2022, 11:36:14 PMWhat looms in the background is Russian anxiety about the prospect of their Baltic Fleet, which has a base in Kaliningrad, being surrounded by NATO after Sweden and Finland join the alliance.
Which is a legitimate concern for Russia. The concern for Russia will be an expanded, rotating deployment of US Navy vessels, not the Swedish or Finnish navies. The tough guy stance being taken by The West may also be more directly challenged in the Baltics than anywhere else in NATO, and not just because of Kaliningrad. Unless the US deploys carriers and amphibious assault ships on a continual basis, or deploys large numbers of troops to the region, there is nothing the US can do if the Russians move on Baltic capitals. (NATO sans US military power is of course useless.) Nukes are an option, I guess.
Multiple Russian business interests are looking to move their current European headquarters to Turkey. Many Swedes and Finns are loathe to accept Turkey's legitimate concerns, though NATO leadership is more realistic. Swedish and Finnish membership may very well come down to who can offer Turkey the largest bribes.
And all the while, Ukrainians continue to suffer and die as The West continues to provide weapons and eschew meaningful settlement talks. The West may just be willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
Oh right, because the Ukrainians don't keep explicitly asking for Western support. It's just being forced upon them involuntarily and the weapons go off automatically. ::)
US fighters 'to be held accountable' (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1268644.shtml)
I wonder if the official position of the US government will be that US mercenaries are not really mercenaries.
Sorry, I meant "volunteers".
Quote from: Todd on June 21, 2022, 05:19:31 AM
US fighters 'to be held accountable' (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1268644.shtml)
I wonder if the official position of the US government will be that US mercenaries are not really mercenaries.
Sorry, I meant "volunteers".
By US law, citizens are not allowed to fight for a foreign country. Therefore the only correct and lawful option is to do nothing. While I understand their compulsion to go there, I can only say 'tough shit', guys, the country can't be held hostage by your personal choices.
🤠😎
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on June 21, 2022, 06:30:33 AMBy US law, citizens are not allowed to fight for a foreign country.
The question is if the US will take that approach, or if they will use the US mercenaries for other purposes, either publicly or privately.
I do not lament the fate of mercenaries from any country.
Quote from: Todd on June 21, 2022, 06:45:56 AM
The question is if the US will take that approach, or if they will use the US mercenaries for other purposes, either publicly or privately.
I do not lament the fate of mercenaries from any country.
I was talking with a French colleague today about the French Foreign Legion. That s a weird thing. Doesn't seem like there's anything quite like it. Sorry. No thread duty.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on June 21, 2022, 06:30:33 AM
By US law, citizens are not allowed to fight for a foreign country. Therefore the only correct and lawful option is to do nothing. While I understand their compulsion to go there, I can only say 'tough shit', guys, the country can't be held hostage by your personal choices.
🤠😎
They don't lose their citizenship and it's still in US interests to see that they are treated in accordance with international agreements. When a citizen gets in trouble overseas the US doesn't do nothing, even if the trouble is a criminal matter.
The time for settlement talks is when Ukraine enters Crimea and Russia finally realizes it has lost the war beyond recovery.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on June 21, 2022, 06:30:33 AM
By US law, citizens are not allowed to fight for a foreign country. Therefore the only correct and lawful option is to do nothing. While I understand their compulsion to go there, I can only say 'tough shit', guys, the country can't be held hostage by your personal choices.
If they commited an offence under US law (Dutch law has a similar provision), that doesn't take away from the fact that as members of the regular Ukranian army they are protected by the Geneva Conventions. Even though Russia denies this.
Quote from: drogulus on June 21, 2022, 07:32:33 AM
The time for settlement talks is when Ukraine enters Crimea and Russia finally realizes it has lost the war beyond recovery.
Short of a conventional WWIII, that means never. ;D
Quote from: Que on June 21, 2022, 08:22:30 AM
If they commited an offence under US law (Dutch law has a similar provision), that doesn't take away from the fact that as members of the regular Ukranian army they are protected by the Geneva Conventions. Even though Russia denies this.
There are ways around the Geneva Conventions. For instance, look at Gitmo, which still operates today. Russians just need to get creative.
Perhaps Russia executes Americans, perhaps it does not. The Americans may be more useful alive.
Quote from: Que on June 21, 2022, 08:22:30 AM
If they commited an offence under US law (Dutch law has a similar provision), that doesn't take away from the fact that as members of the regular Ukranian army they are protected by the Geneva Conventions. Even though Russia denies this.
I would think Russia has no standing to prosecute under Ukrainian law. They are in violation of the 1994 agreement to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, and have been since 2014.
The memorandum prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Russia has no self defense rationale, and the US and UK clearly do. Defending Ukraine against military and economic coercion is in the agreement.
Quote from: Todd on June 21, 2022, 06:45:56 AM
The question is if the US will take that approach, or if they will use the US mercenaries for other purposes, either publicly or privately.
I do not lament the fate of mercenaries from any country.
Nor do I. Sometimes I admire their pluck, often I don't. So far, I have only seen them treated by the US gov't as citizens, nothing special about their being 'soldiers'. We'll see.
Quote from: Que on June 21, 2022, 08:22:30 AM
If they committed an offence under US law (Dutch law has a similar provision), that doesn't take away from the fact that as members of the regular Ukranian army they are protected by the Geneva Conventions. Even though Russia denies this.
We should attempt to get them out just like any other citizen in that predicament. Beyond that, we would be violating our own laws, which were enacted for a very good reason, and I just don't think we should. Sorry, Charlie... :-\
Quote from: drogulus on June 21, 2022, 07:32:33 AM
They don't lose their citizenship and it's still in US interests to see that they are treated in accordance with international agreements. When a citizen gets in trouble overseas the US doesn't do nothing, even if the trouble is a criminal matter.
The time for settlement talks is when Ukraine enters Crimea and Russia finally realizes it has lost the war beyond recovery.
All true. If you, Ernie Drogulus, were to stupidly go to Ukraine right now (for whatever reason) and were captured by the Russians, I would expect you to be sitting in jail alongside Brittney Greiner until the whole thing gets resolved. I'd miss your amusing posts, but I would survive it somehow, since I
didn't manage to go to Ukraine. Or Uvalde. :(
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on June 21, 2022, 01:22:32 PMNor do I. Sometimes I admire their pluck, often I don't. So far, I have only seen them treated by the US gov't as citizens, nothing special about their being 'soldiers'. We'll see.
I would be surprised if the government engaged in a lot of public diplomacy in this situation. This is the type of scenario where less publicized deals get made.
In an obviously entirely unrelated matter, Attorney General Merrick Garland makes surprise trip to Ukraine (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/attorney-general-merrick-garland-makes-surprise-trip-ukraine-rcna34506).
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on June 21, 2022, 01:22:32 PM
All true. If you, Ernie Drogulus, were to stupidly go to Ukraine right now (for whatever reason) and were captured by the Russians, I would expect you to be sitting in jail alongside Brittney Greiner until the whole thing gets resolved. I'd miss your amusing posts, but I would survive it somehow, since I didn't manage to go to Ukraine. Or Uvalde. :(
8)
(https://i.insider.com/554786186bb3f78f7d33ba2f?width=1200&format=jpeg)
Quote from: drogulus on June 21, 2022, 01:56:04 PM
(https://i.insider.com/554786186bb3f78f7d33ba2f?width=1200&format=jpeg)
What's Russian for, " Funny, how? "
"Finland 'ready to fight Russia if attacked'
Finland's armed forces chief, Gen Timo Kivinen, said his country was prepared for a Russian attack and would put up stiff resistance in the event that one should occur."
Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, has warned the west to stop talking about triggering Nato's "article 5" mutual defence clause in a standoff between Lithuania and Russia.
Just sabre rattling or is Russia considering escalating the conflict? I wouldn't rule it out...
It would provide a convenient excuse for a Russian general mobilisation. The lack of which has become a serious obstacle in the Russian war effort.
They might try to test, say by organizing an air bridge to Kaliningrad via NATO airspace, convoys, or the like.
There is a real shortage of goods & food in Kaliningrad, prices have sky-rocketed, but Russia is allowed to use ships, if their logistics would function.
Quote from: Que on June 22, 2022, 10:44:40 AMJust sabre rattling or is Russia considering escalating the conflict?
Just sabre rattling.
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 22, 2022, 11:11:35 AMThey might try to test, say by organizing an air bridge to Kaliningrad via NATO airspace, convoys, or the like.
Which is a legitimate response to a blockade or to a humanitarian crisis.
I expect to see NATO start repositioning their combat power with a bit more alacrity very soon, if they haven't already.
Quote from: LKB on June 23, 2022, 06:50:32 AM
I expect to see NATO start repositioning their combat power with a bit more alacrity very soon, if they haven't already.
Also because Estonia's PM says that currently, the military means in the region aren't at all enough to secure the territory; the Baltic countries would be destroyed before any re-take by NATO, cf. likewise the Russian war 'tactics' of destruction/stealing in Ukraine.
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 23, 2022, 09:54:11 AMAlso because Estonia's PM says that currently, the military means in the region aren't at all enough to secure the territory; the Baltic countries would be destroyed before any re-take by NATO, cf. likewise the Russian war 'tactics' of destruction/stealing in Ukraine.
US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges stated the same thing in June 2016. He advocated for an expanded military presence in the region. Think tank types have been proclaiming the need for an expanded NATO (ie, US) presence in the Baltics for years.
From RAND after the 2014 Russian invasion: Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank (https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1253.html)
From Brookings just two days ago: Strengthening the US and NATO defense postures in Europe after Russia's invasion of Ukraine (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/strengthening-the-us-and-nato-defense-postures-in-europe-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/)
Individuals and institutions that emphasize militaristic solutions as a matter of course typically suggest an expanded military presence.
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 22, 2022, 11:11:35 AM
They might try to test, say by organizing an air bridge to Kaliningrad via NATO airspace, convoys, or the like.
There is a real shortage of goods & food in Kaliningrad, prices have sky-rocketed, but Russia is allowed to use ships, if their logistics would function.
... turns out that the blockade via rail through Lithuania does not involve foods or daily necessities, only steel, coal, advanced technologies and ditto industrial products.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61878929
A few writers foretold the oncoming Kaliningrad issues quite some time ago:
"
The situation in Kaliningrad is so bad due to sanctions, that its 1 million residents are stuck in the exclave with no way out, products are even 5x more expensive than in Poland, and authorities are giving away land so people can plant their own potatoes, etc."
https://twitter.com/Exen/status/1514534974380195841 (from back in mid-April)
"
Whatever unfolds, Russia and NATO will at some point again have to discuss mutually suitable security arrangements or architecture (...). More realistically, there may simply be a need for a "cold peace" (...)""
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-as-tensions-between-nato-and-russia-increase-look-to-kaliningrad/ (early May)
"
... Kaliningrad could provide a model for future engagement with the Russian "mainland." It could also be a symbol of solidarity that might help all peoples of the Baltic build a bridge (...)"
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/30529/kaliningrad-could-be-a-flashpoint-in-eu-russia-relationship
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 23, 2022, 11:28:37 AM
... turns out that the blockade via rail through Lithuania does not involve foods or daily necessities, only steel, coal, advanced technologies and ditto industrial products.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61878929
That amounts to a partial economic blockade. That might be construed as an act of war. The US government would go bananas if any other country dared do that to the US.
The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war
A lecture by John J. Mearsheimer (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qciVozNtCDM)
Given at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies earlier this month. About two hours long. Includes a spirited Q&A. Mearsheimer points out that actual control of Ukraine may not be needed for Russia to achieve its aims. Destroying Ukraine, causing immense damage - the type that will cost a trillion or more to repair - may very well achieve many aims. Conquest is not always the key objective. He also points out that it was the George W Bush administration that pushed the idea of expanding NATO to include Ukraine, something some or a lot of people who loathed Dubya's hyperaggressive foreign policy now embrace.
I think that Ukraine should begin considering that certain territorial losses to Russia are really and truly unavoidable (Crimea first and foremost, then partially Luhansk and Donetsk). At this moment, territories for peace (be it even a prolonged armistice without a peace treaty) seems like the best options to end this bloody mess.
I mean, let's be honest and face it; for all the Western military aid, Ukraine alone cannot defeat Russia --- the best they can hope for is a prolonged stalemate. The only way that Ukraine can defeat Russia is a strictly conventional WWIII --- ie, there's no way thay can defeat Russia.
Quote from: Florestan on June 25, 2022, 07:24:13 AM
I think that Ukraine should begin considering that certain territorial losses to Russia are really and truly unavoidable (Crimea first and foremost, then partially Luhansk and Donetsk). At this moment, territories for peace (be it even a prolonged armistice without a peace treaty) seems like the best options to end this bloody mess.
I mean, let's be honest and face it; for all the Western military aid, Ukraine alone cannot defeat Russia --- the best they can hope for is a prolonged stalemate. The only way that Ukraine can defeat Russia is a strictly conventional WWIII --- ie, there's no way thay can defeat Russia.
The only reason Russia has lasted as long as they have is by expending the lives of conscripts from Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia is afraid to mobilize its own population, and it's uncertain how many effective soldiers that would produce in any case, given how poorly their "elite" units have fared against highly motivated Ukrainians that are fighting at close to NATO standards, even though they don't have much NATO equipment yet.
As bad as the Russian hardware situation is, the manpower situation is worse. The Russian artillery advantage is offset by an inability to fully take advantage of it. When the Ukes withdraw from a heavily bombarded position, they shell Russian troops that occupy the vacated position. Russians are being "Kutuzov-ed". Like Russia when it has been invaded, Ukraine has plenty of room to retreat while resupplying and reinforcing.
Wars do have periods of stalemate. Ukraine will grow in strength during this one, while Russia will not.
Warfare on the economic front heats up:
First, Russia defaults! Well, sorta, kinda:
Russia defaults on foreign debt for the first time since 1918 (https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/6/27/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-the-first-time-since-1918)
What's happening with Russia's 1st default on foreign debt in a century (https://www.npr.org/2022/06/27/1107750231/russia-default-foreign-debt-payments-explained)
Second, Western leaders have concocted a harebrained scheme to explicitly control oil prices:
G7 Set To Impose "Price Caps" On Russian Oil; Unclear What This Actually Does (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/g7-set-impose-price-caps-russian-oil-unclear-what-actually-achieves)
G7's Oil Price Cap For Russia: Easier Said Than Done (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/G7s-Oil-Price-Cap-For-Russia-Easier-Said-Than-Done.html)
(Also, French energy company execs assumed a very Jimmy Carteresque stance over the weekend, beseeching the French to use less energy. Which of course directly translates into a lower standard of living. That is, it makes people poorer, by definition. Always a good message to deliver.)
Maybe some policy making types should take a few minutes to read the following article: What Money Can't Buy: The Limits of Economic Power (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2022-06-21/what-money-cant-buy-economic-power)
Finland's president now stating that some sort of agreement on NATO between Turkey, Sweden and Finland has been obtained, at least on some basic level.
Apparently includes Turkey getting 30 controversial persons (allegedly PKK, Gulen groups) for court procedures (?).
Stoltenberg: 'We now have an agreement' for Finland, Sweden to join Nato
Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general for Nato, has announced that talks were successful with Turkey and that Finland and Sweden are now set to join the alliance.
"I am pleased to announce we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join Nato," Stoltenberg said.
Quote from: MusicTurner on June 28, 2022, 10:45:18 AM
Finland's president now stating that some sort of agreement on NATO between Turkey, Sweden and Finland has been obtained, at least on some basic level.
Apparently includes Turkey getting 30 controversial persons (allegedly PKK, Gulen groups) for court procedures (?).
Quote from: Que on June 28, 2022, 11:13:51 AM
Stoltenberg: 'We now have an agreement' for Finland, Sweden to join Nato
Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general for Nato, has announced that talks were successful with Turkey and that Finland and Sweden are now set to join the alliance.
"I am pleased to announce we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join Nato," Stoltenberg said.
Did anyone really expected otherwise? I have predicted this outcome on day one. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 11:19:28 AM
Did anyone really expected otherwise? I have predicted this outcome on day one. ;D
Everybody knew the outcome. It was only a matter of when the agreement is achieved. This result was positively fast given the worst case estimates of about a year of delay! ???
Quote from: absolutelybaching on June 28, 2022, 12:23:54 PM
The real problem is not the giving or taking of territory. It's the fact that Russia is treaty-bound to respect Ukraine's pre-2014 territorial integriry. It's completely screwed up on that treaty obligation. So what in Heaven's name will make it adhere to, and uphold, another treaty to which it pledges to respect Ukraine's post-2022 territorial integrity?!
I have said it numerous times here: any treaty to which Russia is a signatory part is not worth even the paper it's printed on.
I have said it numerous times here: Russia as a state and political entity is the scourge of the earth.
I have said it numerous times here: I'm a staunch, intractable political Russophobe and a staunch, dedicated cultural Russophile.
And I have said it numerous times here: I can find no way out of this conundrum, other than listen to, and read, exclusively works written, performed or conducted by Russians who never explicitly supported Putin.
Quote from: 71 dB on June 28, 2022, 12:34:45 PM
Everybody knew the outcome.
Oh, please! You didn't --- otherwise you wouldn't have been so aggressive with respect to Turkey. ;D
But it doesn't matter anymore. You will be a NATO member --- welcome! The more, the merrier, fuck Putin, fuck Russia!
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 12:42:59 PMBut it doesn't matter anymore. You will be a NATO member --- welcome! The more, the merrier, fuck Putin, fuck Russia!
The war machine expands its scope yet again. Humanity will benefit.
Quote from: Todd on June 28, 2022, 01:17:19 PM
The war machine expands its scope yet again. Humanity will benefit.
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/07/4c/e8/074ce8d2379d00cc4a63aa69b9ecfc8e.gif)
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 01:24:31 PM
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/07/4c/e8/074ce8d2379d00cc4a63aa69b9ecfc8e.gif)
I'm pretty certain a baby - or more likely babies - that looks much like that one will die as the war machine expands its scope.
At least my streets will not be bombed.
Quote from: Todd on June 28, 2022, 01:27:40 PM
I'm pretty certain a baby - or more likely babies - that looks much like that one will die as the war machine expands its scope.
And I'm pretty certain the death of such a baby would make you lose sleep --- but if and only if it's a US baby. All non-US babies are expendable, as you explicitly implied numerous times.
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 01:34:47 PM
And I'm pretty certain the death of such a baby would make you lose sleep --- but if and only if it's a US baby. All non-US babies are expendable, as you explicitly implied numerous times.
I lose no sleep over any wars or any war dead.
The bizarre thing is that there are people in the world who anxiously desire that the US war machine expand its scope yet again, so that it can notionally or actually kill more children here, there, and everywhere, and its "enemies" can do the same in response. I advocate for the opposite, with no concern whatever for my sleep patterns.
The bizarre thing about the Russo-Ukrainian war is the cognitive dissonance on display regarding Russia. On the one hand, its military is incompetent and weak, etc, and countries like Finland could defend themselves against the paper tiger, yet on the other hand, Russia is so evil and powerful that the US must expand NATO to defend against it. Triumphalism meets phobia.
Quote from: Todd on June 28, 2022, 01:50:32 PM
The bizarre thing about the Russo-Ukrainian war is the cognitive dissonance on display regarding Russia. On the one hand, its military is incompetent and weak, etc, and countries like Finland could defend themselves against the paper tiger, yet on the other hand, Russia is so evil and powerful that the US must expand NATO to defend against it. Triumphalism meets phobia.
There's nothing bizarre about it. The possibility for a NATO country to be attacked by Russia is infinitesimaly smaller than the same possibility for a non-NATO country. That is all.
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 01:57:58 PMThere's nothing bizarre about it. The possibility for a NATO country to be attacked by Russia is infinitesimaly smaller than the same possibility for a non-NATO country. That is all.
There is something very bizarre about it from an American perspective, and the simultaneous proclamations of Russian weakness and the need for protection from Russia are intrinsically contradictory and bizarre. I understand very well why small, weak countries desire US protection. I understand what Russia can do to many countries located in the Eurasian landmass and in certain geographically proximate portions of Africa. I also understand that if Russia completely destroys Ukraine and/or a variety of other countries, US security will not be impacted; five million dead Eurasians would or will have the same impact as five million dead Congolese. That is, zilch. Also, NATO's scope is expanding to the Pacific, as NATO has officially changed its designation of China. Despite US assurances that it will not put together an Indo-Pacific version of NATO, it will put together something similar. Those who believe they benefit from an expanding empire will of course sing the empire's praises.
Quote from: Todd on June 28, 2022, 02:11:44 PM
I understand what Russia can do to many countries located in the Eurasian landmass and in certain geographically proximate portions of Africa. I also understand that if Russia completely destroys Ukraine and/or a variety of other countries, US security will not be impacted; five million dead Eurasias would or will have the same impact as five million dead Congolese.
Exactly and precisely what I said before: five million dead Ukrainian / non-US Eurasian babies would or will have
for you the same impact as five million dead Congolese babies. That is, zilch.
QuoteThat is, zilch.
QED.
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 12:42:59 PM
Oh, please! You didn't --- otherwise you wouldn't have been so aggressive with respect to Turkey. ;D
But it doesn't matter anymore. You will be a NATO member --- welcome! The more, the merrier, fuck Putin, fuck Russia!
Well, I have been struggling mentally even before the war, but I am better now. About 3 weeks ago I found my peace of mind. Yesterday hardly anyone knew how long this Sweden/Finland/Türkeya/NATO issue will go on.
And thanks,,
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 02:19:41 PMExactly and precisely what I said before: five million dead Ukrainian / non-US Eurasian babies would or will have for you the same impact as five million dead Congolese babies. That is, zilch.
No, it is not precisely the same thing. First, most war dead are not babies. Second, the two Congo Wars were more troubling than what is happening in Ukraine because of the nature of those wars, the continued shameless exploitation of one of the poorest places on earth by many external parties (including the US) during both wars, and also because European nation states have the capacity to defend themselves, but craven European governments actively choose to instead rely on the US. In short, the Congo got screwed and Europe is screwing the US.
Really, the crux of the issue is the cost-benefit analysis of American involvement in various security relationships. There is financial cost and human cost. The US already spends far too much money protecting irrelevant countries, and all the vested interests involved will more or less make sure that continues to happen. The human cost is of course more important. For example, how many American lives is Romania worth? The correct answer is zero. Unfortunately, if a sitting president were to take Article V of the Washington Treaty seriously in a situation where Romania was attacked by Russia, the possible number would be potentially much greater than zero. But the US would not benefit. All cost, no benefit.
Quote from: Todd on June 28, 2022, 02:41:08 PM
For example, how many American lives is Romania worth? The correct answer is zero.
I've very recently watched "Operation Finale". Ben Kingsley (as Adolf Eichmann) told Oscar Isaac (as Peter Malkin): I am one person against six million Jewish persons --- you do realize, don't you, that your sister is worth less than a spit of my mouth?
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 02:52:09 PM
I've very recently watched "Operation Finale". Ben Kingsley (as Adolf Eichmann) told Oscar Isaac (as Peter Malkin): I am one person against six million Jewish persons --- you do realize, don't you, that your sister is worth less than a spit of my mouth?
So, is that a thumbs up for the movie?
Quote from: Todd on June 28, 2022, 02:53:21 PM
So, is that a thumbs up for the movie?
The movie was very good.
My idea is that you'd make an exemplary USA sort of Adolf Eichmann. No, really and honestly, you display the same sovereign contempt for anyone not belonging to the chosen race, ie not being a US citizen.
Quote from: Todd on June 28, 2022, 02:11:44 PM
There is something very bizarre about it from an American perspective, and the simultaneous proclamations of Russian weakness and the need for protection from Russia are intrinsically contradictory and bizarre. I understand very well why small, weak countries desire US protection. I understand what Russia can do to many countries located in the Eurasian landmass and in certain geographically proximate portions of Africa. I also understand that if Russia completely destroys Ukraine and/or a variety of other countries, US security will not be impacted; five million dead Eurasians would or will have the same impact as five million dead Congolese. That is, zilch. Also, NATO's scope is expanding to the Pacific, as NATO has officially changed is designation of China. Despite US assurances that it will not put together an Indo-Pacific version of NATO, it will put together something similar. Those who believe they benefit from an expanding empire will of course sing the empire's praises.
Imagine if Todd had been in charge of the USA in either World War. All those American troops who ended up in Europe. SUCH a waste of effort, right?
On the other hand, he might just have avoided going to Vietnam.
Quote from: Florestan on June 28, 2022, 02:56:42 PMMy idea is that you'd make an exemplary USA sort of Adolf Eichmann. No, really and honestly, you display the same sovereign contempt for anyone not belonging to the chosen race, ie not being a US citizen.
On the internet, everything is always like WWII.
Quote from: Madiel on June 28, 2022, 03:20:46 PM
Imagine if Todd had been in charge of the USA in either World War. All those American troops who ended up in Europe. SUCH a waste of effort, right?
On the other hand, he might just have avoided going to Vietnam.
When Japan attacked us is different than what is happening in the Ukraine.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on June 28, 2022, 03:56:31 PM
When Japan attacked us is different than what is happening in the Ukraine.
No shit, Sherlock. That covers one part of one of the wars I referred to. I don't recall a lot of Japanese troops in Europe when the Americans arrived there, I must have dozed off in that part of history class.
Allow me to hate the (heh!) mainstream media just a little, then I'll return to regularly scheduled programs.
It appears that the media is tired of the narrative of Russian failure, more than Russia is tired of failing. The story needs a new twist. So Russia captured a couple of cities and have momentum.
Serious analysts look at the situation and estimate that Russia is running out of everything and has about a couple of months of ammo left. Remember, the Russian tank factory is closed for lack of parts. Russia is running on old stock, and I'm certain that's why Russian missiles are unreliable. There's not much new stuff left. Russian generals have to think about the consequences of having no modern weapons in the arsenal. Everyone will know! Everyone will see the Big Board!
Russia will use T-62 tanks. Russia won't use SU-57 stealth fighters. If you can't use your best plane because you're afraid it would be shot down, but you can use obsolete museum piece tanks because you're running out of better slightly obsolete tanks, what's the war winning move?
Just a general reminder for the many, that this thread, even whilst evoking some deep passions, must not coerce us into losing our fine grip upon civility.
And for those who are more of my ilk, I'll just say 'watch'er, amigo'.
I dislike getting asked by members who know better whether insults have become acceptable. It wasn't even on this thread, but since it's on my watch list I'll just spread the word. They haven't. :blank:
$:)
Quote from: drogulus on June 28, 2022, 04:44:14 PM
Serious analysts look at the situation and estimate that Russia is running out of everything and has about a couple of months of ammo left. Remember, the Russian tank factory is closed for lack of parts. Russia is running on old stock, and I'm certain that's why Russian missiles are unreliable. There's not much new stuff left.
That is very good news. All I've heard is bad. They just have to hold on a bit longer.
Quote from: DavidW on June 28, 2022, 06:02:51 PM
That is very good news. All I've heard is bad. They just have to hold on a bit longer.
I'd like to believe that, but I can't quite. The Russians might just throw everything they have, whether it has value strategically or tactically or not, and dig in. Defense expends less goodies than offense. I think they won't be dislodged until next year.
That gives Russia a better chance to work their magic among their many dear friends abroad, who will reliably spread the message that the horrors of war are the responsibility of the defenders. That's the best move they have.
Zelensky may not be a NAZI yet, but who says he won't get there? If gas prices stay up long enough........
Putin needs a drawn-out war – the west's timidity gives him one (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/28/putin-ar-the-west-zelenskiy-ukraine-russia)
Quote from: Keir GilesIn military terms too, Russia may be able to outlast Ukrainian resilience and western patience. Authoritative assessments say Russia is running out of trained military manpower. But as with so much else, this is a less definitive challenge for Russia than it would be for other powers. Traditional Russian indifference to the scale of casualties incurred in pursuit of war aims is manifesting in its willingness to throw half-trained or untrained reserves and levies into the fight, including those drafted by force from occupied territories (yet another war crime to add to Russia's catalogue).
It is from the Graun, so adjust accordingly.
At NATO summit, Biden announces permanent U.S. troop presence in Poland, increased support for eastern Europe (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/06/29/nato-summit-biden-russia-china-turkey/7753685001/)
It's hard to say who is most important to the defense (after Ukraine, that is). I would say the critical components are Poland and the US. The US has been unmatched in logistics since the '40s and no land power can match what it does. The Russians at this point could hardly defend St' Petersburg if anyone wanted to go to the trouble of grabbing it. They stripped their northern forces for the war in Ukraine. According to very smart Finland persons there is almost nothing on the Russian side except a few missile launchers with Lil" Kim nukes.
And now are the Poles. This is their war. US timidity about the MiGs may not last. Instead of asking "please may I?" Poland will have Uke pilots fly them home and tell the US to send the F-16s now or even sooner. And we will do so.
Russians fire their cruise missiles at Uke cities because at least they do some damage, pointless as most of it is, and because Russian planes get shot down if they go too far from Russian territory and their SAM sites.
The US is sending Ukraine the same anti-missile system that defends Washington, D.C.
A thinkster says:
With AMRAMM ER (AMRAAM seeker head and warhead + RIM 162 booster), this range will extend out to 50km. This is what the Ukraine needs for anti cruise missile defence. In addition, NASAMS can be used with the FDC (Fire Distribution Centre) which can interlink with up to 8 radars and a dozen missile launchers.
This is well beyond the Soviet era stuff Ukraine has now. Cap and his merry band are running sims to see how well they perform. I'll go watch.
NATO deems Russia its 'most significant and direct threat' (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-zelenskyy-politics-jens-stoltenberg-54c91903690f0d56537fa40ada88d83c)
When I first read this headline, I thought The Onion had made it into my news feed. Nope, it's from the AP. And here I thought NATO was established, maintained, and recklessly expanded to ward off threats from Freedonia.
According to real oligarch housewives Putin is sick and insane and evil. One of them is Countess Tolstoy, ex-housewife of Putin banker Sergei Pugachev, now in exile for....something.
(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/03/11/26778804-10572843-Sergei_said_he_enjoyed_a_very_close_friendship_with_Russian_pres-a-13_1646308108499.jpg)
This is an old picture from happier days. If I'm not mistaken this is the real visage of Putin. How did such a hollow cheeked despot end up with a balloon face? My face got hollower when I got old the way nature intended.
Quote from: Madiel on June 28, 2022, 04:12:34 PM
No shit, Sherlock. That covers one part of one of the wars I referred to. I don't recall a lot of Japanese troops in Europe when the Americans arrived there, I must have dozed off in that part of history class.
And Germany declared war on the US first in WW2.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on June 29, 2022, 04:16:37 PM
And Germany declared war on the US first in WW2.
Right, so here's the question: instead of bringing up the Japanese to say how different THAT was, focus on the Germans and explain how US involvement IN EUROPE in World War Two is so different to current European involvement.
Because that is what I was actually talking about before you brought up an irrelevant situation on the opposite side of the world.
Quote from: Madiel on June 29, 2022, 04:52:10 PM
Right, so here's the question: instead of bringing up the Japanese to say how different THAT was, focus on the Germans and explain how US involvement IN EUROPE in World War Two is so different to current European involvement.
Because that is what I was actually talking about before you brought up an irrelevant situation on the opposite side of the world.
At this time we have not been attacked and Russia has not declared was on the US. So why should we get involved?
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on June 29, 2022, 05:23:40 PM
At this time we have not been attacked and Russia has not declared was on the US. So why should we get involved?
Maybe you should read a bit more about what you were actually doing in World War II before the declaration of war happened. The Wikipedia article on Germany's declaration is as good a place as any.
My entire point, which you seem to have missed, is that Todd (and apparently yourself) would have been against the USA being involved in Europe then just as you are against it now.
Quote from: Madiel on June 29, 2022, 05:30:59 PM
Maybe you should read a bit more about what you were actually doing in World War II before the declaration of war happened. The Wikipedia article on Germany's declaration is as good a place as any.
My entire point, which you seem to have missed, is that Todd (and apparently yourself) would have been against the USA being involved in Europe then just as you are against it now.
If my memory serves me the US was trying to stay out of Europe until it was attacked. NAZIs held a famous rally in Madison Square Garden on February 20, 1939.
(https://helios-i.mashable.com/imagery/longforms/07GYVpWzAUBSdoFtgn6ellj/hero-image.fill.size_1200x900.v1619478384.jpg)
Not giving a shit about people far away about which we knew nothing didn't help at all. There was no NATO, but there was industrial strength peacemongering. No peace follows the mongering. That's not what it's for.
Special Report: Dozens of Russian weapons tycoons have faced no Western sanctions (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dozens-russian-weapons-tycoons-have-faced-no-western-sanctions-2022-07-01/)
Denmark has ratified Finland's (and Sweden's) NATO membership(s) as the first country! Thank you Denmark! $:)
Quote from: 71 dB on July 05, 2022, 07:22:02 AM
Denmark has ratified Finland's (and Sweden's) NATO membership(s) as the first country! Thank you Denmark! $:)
Thank you, a large majority of Danes agree with the decision given the circumstances, like me ...
Quote from: MusicTurner on July 05, 2022, 07:44:30 AM
Thank you, a large majority of Danes agree with the decision given the circumstances, like me ...
$:)
Quote from: MusicTurner on July 05, 2022, 07:44:30 AM
Thank you, a large majority of Danes agree with the decision given the circumstances, like me ...
..and me.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 05, 2022, 07:22:02 AM
Denmark has ratified Finland's (and Sweden's) NATO membership(s) as the first country! Thank you Denmark! $:)
Congrats! I read that today on AP news. It was weird to see good news in this age!
Quote from: DavidW on July 05, 2022, 08:19:19 AM
Congrats! I read that today on AP news. It was weird to see good news in this age!
Indeed, but there's 29 countries left Türkeya included...
Denmark was super-fast! :o
🇩🇰
Russia gains ground: Russian forces shift target to Donetsk as Zelenskyy vows Ukraine will win back captured Luhansk (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/04/russian-forces-shift-to-targeting-donetsk-after-capturing-luhansk.html)
Ukraine prematurely requests aid, and it's a doozy of a number: Ukraine unveils $750 billion recovery plan as Russia sets sights on Donetsk (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/04/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/)
Meanwhile, no formal settlement talks are under way. Winter is coming.
Canada has ratified the NATO memberships as the second country! Thank you Canada for quick action! $:)
🇨🇦
Norway has also ratified! Thank you Norway! $:)
🇳🇴
The fourth country to ratify the NATO memberships of Finland and Sweden was Iceland! Thank you! $:)
🇮🇸
The only surprise in this list is that someone managed to beat any of the Nordic members.
Quote from: Madiel on July 06, 2022, 04:15:39 AM
The only surprise in this list is that someone managed to beat any of the Nordic members.
At this point the political system of countries dictate who is the fastest. Now Estonia has ratified the memberships too, which is not surprising, because Sweden and Finland being part of NATO means a lot to Estonia and they have been hoping us to join NATO for years... ...thanks Estonia!
🇪🇪The ratification process is underway in Hungary, North Macedonia, the US, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Bulgaria and the UK*
EDIT: ratification process has also started in Belgium and Luxemburg. 8)
* The UK is of course in the middle of political crisis, so that may slow things down... :P
Quote from: Todd on July 05, 2022, 09:19:41 AM
Russia gains ground: Russian forces shift target to Donetsk as Zelenskyy vows Ukraine will win back captured Luhansk (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/04/russian-forces-shift-to-targeting-donetsk-after-capturing-luhansk.html)
Ukraine prematurely requests aid, and it's a doozy of a number: Ukraine unveils $750 billion recovery plan as Russia sets sights on Donetsk (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/04/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/)
Meanwhile, no formal settlement talks are under way. Winter is coming.
Yes indeed, winter is coming... in five months and a couple of weeks.
Given Putin's recently expressed imperial observations, it should be crystal clearto anyone in the west that Russia's defeat is more of an imperative than ever.
The only acceptable " settlement " is Russian capitulation.
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 10:36:33 AMThe only acceptable " settlement " is Russian capitulation.
Zelenskyy's $750 billion ask will only grow. More Ukrainians will die. Russia will end up with more territory. A settlement will be reached.
It is easy for Americans who thirst for war to type boldly on the internet, offering to sacrifice Ukrainian lives. For something.
Appeasement was a mistake before WW2, and so it is today.
War is expensive. The way you deter it is by making it prohibitively expensive for would-be aggressors, not by rewarding them.
Putin is not, after all crazy, which means all the threatening nuclear noise is simply more Russian BS.
The West should keep supplying Ukraine with everything needed until they win.
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 10:59:26 AMAppeasement was a mistake before WW2, and so it is today.
Godwin's Law.
Quote from: Scion7 on February 24, 2022, 02:26:31 AM
With this move, Putin joins the ranks of the Mongol Khans, Hitler and Mao.
Good going, you five-foot little tin-horn unbalanced murderer.
As you can see from the quote, Godwin's law does not apply. I'd say, " Nice try, " but it was't .
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 10:36:33 AM
The only acceptable " settlement " is Russian capitulation.
The only way to secure this is a strictly conventional WW3 between NATO and Russia. In other words, there's no way to secure this.
Look, as an intractable Russophobe I'd just love to see them defeated and de-Putinized the way Nazi Germany* was defeated and de-Hitlerized, ie
manu militari. But as a realist, I realize (pun) that it's not going to happen.
*
pace Todd.
Quote from: Florestan on July 06, 2022, 11:32:57 AMLook, as an intractable Russophobe I'd just love to see them defeated and de-Putinized the way Nazi Germany* was defeated and de-Hitlerized, ie manu militari. But as a realist, I realize (pun) that it's not going to happen.
Western pro-war propaganda, especially in the US, has been so pervasive, and so persuasive for people prone to accept militarism generally, that many or at least some people
actually believe that sending more weapons to Ukraine will suffice to defeat Russia. Aside from the strategic folly inherent in this thinking, it ignores Russian military history over the last few centuries, and more to the point, over the past twenty or so years. It also fails to define basic concepts like victory and defeat in the current war.
Unfortunately for Ukrainians, the Russo-Ukrainian War has started fading as an issue in the US, replaced by SCOTUS rulings, inflation, airline cancellations bungling vacation plans, and in a couple months, the never-ending onslaught of political ads and punditry. Unless the war goes nuclear, the time for maximum (presumably) effective US action has passed. The US will continue to pump billions in, as it does, and issue some stern warnings and such, but as with America's wars this century, the war has lost much of its salience.
WW3 is neither necessary nor inevitable. There simply has to be a willingness to:
A) Shut off Russian energy exports to Europe, and accept the resultant hardships.
B) Continue the sanctions and augment them.
C) Start providing Ukraine with the full range of the needed training, materials and supporting intel they need to prevail.
One problem is simply that the war has lasted long enough to exhaust western attention, to an extent. Expectations were probably too high after the initial Russian ineptitude was revealed, though there already were experts warning that they would probably improve their efforts over time. So once the wholesale bombardment of civilian targets commenced, along with emerging accounts of Russian brutality, a new sort of shock set in.
Months later, the slaughter continues. But Zelenskyy said it best back then, and he's still right: Russia must not profit from this, not even symbolically.
Any sort of a " win " for Putin would threaten all of Europe with war for as long as he lives. That's a pretty simple truth, really.
< " 3 " magically becomes " C ", and a huge error is no more! >
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 12:02:11 PM
WW3 is neither necessary nor inevitable. There simply has to be a willingness to:
A) Shut off Russian energy exports to Europe, and accept the resultant hardships.
B) Continue the sanctions and augment them.
3) Start providing Ukraine with the full range of the needed training, materials and supporting intel they need to prevail.
A, B, 3?
Quote from: Todd on July 06, 2022, 11:48:51 AM
many or at least some people actually believe that sending more weapons to Ukraine will suffice to defeat Russia.
No, of course it won't.
Quotethe Russo-Ukrainian War has started fading as an issue in the US
So has in Romania for that matter. During the first two or three months, it made the headlines and was covered extensively before any domestic issue was even alluded to. Now it's a third or fourth tier news.
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 12:02:11 PM
A) Shut off Russian energy exports to Europe, and accept the resultant hardships.
Probability: close to zero.
Quote(B) Continue the sanctions and augment them.
Absent (A) the sanctions and their augmentation are a joke.
QuoteStart providing Ukraine with the full range of the needed training, materials and supporting intel they need to prevail.
Define Ukraine's prevailing over Russia.
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 12:02:11 PM
Any sort of a " win " for Putin would threaten all of Europe with war for as long as he lives. That's a pretty simple truth, really.
Do you imply that NATO is actually not a deterrent for Putin and if he has even half his way in Ukraine the next target(s) will be Poland, the Baltic States and Romania?
Quote from: Florestan on July 06, 2022, 12:06:00 PM
So has in Romania for that matter. During the first two or three months, it made the headlines and was covered extensively before any domestic issue was even alluded to. Now it's a third or fourth tier news.
And also, sadly, the outpouring of solidarity with the Ukrainian refugees is drying out. A close friend of mine is helping Caritas here in Spain in their support for Ukrainian families that find themselves in the awkward and terrible position of being asked to leave Spanish homes that offered them shelter, after having been welcomed with open arms just a couple of months ago. It seems some of the families or individuals that enthusiastically offered shelter are now unable or unwilling to feed more mouths at their tables, and have grown tired of sharing their sitting rooms every evening with strangers with whom they can barely communicate.
Quote from: ritter on July 06, 2022, 12:20:31 PM
And also, sadly, the outpouring of solidarity with the Ukrainian refugees is drying out. A close friend of mine is helping Caritas here in Spain in their support for Ukrainian families that find themselves in the awkward and terrible position of being asked to leave Spanish homes that offered them shelter, after having been welcomed with open arms just a couple of months ago. It seems some of the families or individuals that enthusiastically offered shelter are now unable or unwilling to feed more mouths at their tables, and have grown tired of sharing their sitting rooms every evening with strangers with whom they can barely communicate.
Bringing guests in an open-ended fashion is a great challenge. The impulse was certainly big-hearted.
Quote from: ritter on July 06, 2022, 12:20:31 PM
And also, sadly, the outpouring of solidarity with the Ukrainian refugees is drying out. A close friend of mine is helping Caritas here in Spain in their support for Ukrainian families that find themselves in the awkward and terrible position of being asked to leave Spanish homes that offered them shelter, after having been welcomed with open arms just a couple of months ago. It seems some of the families or individuals that enthusiastically offered shelter are now unable or unwilling to feed more mouths at their tables, and have grown tired of sharing their sitting rooms every evening with strangers with whom they can barely communicate.
I am not aware of any similar phenomenon in Romania (ie, the Romanian media do not report it) but I wouldn't be surprised by it.
Menschliches, Allzumenschliches...
Honestly, anyone who really thinks this war will eventually result in a complete Russian defeat and capitulation and in Ukraine's getting back all their territories, including Crimea, is delusional.
Quote from: Todd on July 06, 2022, 10:47:27 AM
Zelenskyy's $750 billion ask will only grow. More Ukrainians will die. Russia will end up with more territory. A settlement will be reached.
Agreed. However, the problem at the moment is that Putin does not want to negotiate and needs an incentive to do so.
And then he needs reasons, a necessity even, to be be willing to compromise. As long as everything is going Putin's way, he won't budge.
Quote from: Que on July 06, 2022, 02:31:16 PM
Agreed. However, the problem at the moment is that Putin does not want to negotiate and needs an incentive to do so.
And then he needs reasons, a necessity even, to be be willing to compromise. As long as everything is going Putin's way, he won't budge.
The West has made no attempt to pursue a negotiated settlement. Current policy is explicitly designed to keep the war going. Perhaps private communications are different.
Quote from: Florestan on July 06, 2022, 12:10:17 PM...Define Ukraine's prevailing over Russia.
All Russian forces still extant ( aside from those which were in place in the disputed regions prior to February 24th ) withdraw to positions outside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, and all Russian offensive operations cease.
This has to be the result, anything less is capitulation.
Quote from: Todd on July 06, 2022, 02:37:33 PM
The West has made no attempt to pursue a negotiated settlement. Current policy is explicitly designed to keep the war going. Perhaps private communications are different.
Always with the disingenuous verbiage, eh?
The West is assisting a democratic nation in its efforts to resist annihilation. As long as Putin is determined to " keep going " the West has no option but to continue the assistance.
Quote from: Florestan on July 06, 2022, 12:13:59 PM
Do you imply that NATO is actually not a deterrent for Putin and if he has even half his way in Ukraine the next target(s) will be Poland, the Baltic States and Romania?
Putin has already seen evidence of weakness and division among the leadership in the west.
Russian gas still flows into Europe, Turkey stalls Finland and Sweden, the US refuses to allow Poland to transfer surplus aircraft to Ukraine.
This gives Putin all he needs to manipulate NATO with the nuclear threat, even if that is in fact a non-starter.
I imagine his conclusion, which was probably already reached weeks ago, was something like:
When it comes down to the hard choices, they won't pull the trigger. They're pussies. And in war, pussies deserve only contempt. So forget NATO, l expect Putin already has. This war must be won by Ukraine, explicitly and unambiguously, and the West should do everything possible to make it happen.
Otherwise, once Putin executes the slackers and reconstitute his forces, yes. He dangles his nukes, and starts carving up the Baltics.
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 02:58:10 PM
Always with the disingenuous verbiage, eh?
The West is assisting a democratic nation in its efforts to resist annihilation. As long as Putin is determined to " keep going " the West has no option but to continue the assistance.
The West always has options. More to the point, the US always has options. US security is not imperiled by the status of Ukraine. The US can let the entire country burn and let hundreds of thousands or millions die as a matter of policy. It can do that. It has done that with other countries. The idea that The West and the US, in particular, has no choice but to pursue its current policy is factually wrong as well as being preposterous on its face.
The West is actively engaged in a proxy war in Ukraine. It has made no public attempt to pursue a negotiated settlement. The US is directing the effort. The US alone has the power to cease shipments of American weapons systems and offer to rescind sanctions in exchange for a temporary cessation of Russian military action so a settlement can be pursued. The US has not even publicly made that option available, let alone acted on such an approach. Some leaders have been uncommonly candid about the goals of US policy, as when Secretary of Defense Austin publicly stated that a US policy goal is to weaken Russia. The selected theater is Ukraine. US policy objectives are not benign. Unfortunately for Ukrainians, US efforts will not suffice to inflict the wished for (by some) harm on Russia, resulting in it becoming a weak regional power that poses no threat, and more will suffer and die as a result of the proxy war, and the disruptions caused in energy and agricultural markets will impose (and are already imposing) very serious consequences on countries not involved in any way in the war. It is convenient to blame this all on Russia, but it is also a flat out lie. Also, contrary to triumphalist hopes, current policy will accelerate the deterioration of some international institutions and will further intensify attempts to move away from the dollar dominated international financial system. An expanded NATO is not worth the cost.
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 03:18:46 PMThis war must be won by Ukraine, explicitly and unambiguously, and the West should do everything possible to make it happen.
Define victory, explicitly and unambiguously.
Quote from: Todd on July 06, 2022, 03:40:21 PM
...Define victory, explicitly and unambiguously.
I did that already, in my reply to Florestan. Four posts up, l think.
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 03:52:55 PM
I did that already, in my reply to Florestan. Four posts up, l think.
Your definition of "victory" includes a concession to Russia and does not mention reparations at all. Your definition would likely invite contempt from the Russians, and all that implies from one of your prior posts.
No matter, that will not happen.
Purported military experts on social media frequently repeat claims that Russia's military capabilities are nearly exhausted and soon it will be forced to sue for peace because it will run out of ammunition/missiles/troops/tanks/etc. I personally have no idea how long it "should" take to seize, say, a city of 400,000 inhabitants defended by a brigade of ~10-15,000 professional troops (Mariupol), and therefore cannot comment on whether taking 82 days to fully capture the city (all of the populated areas of which had been seized within the first 3 weeks) is a sign of military incompetence or not. The fact that Russia seems to be slowly but steadily gaining territory, while Ukraine is losing several hundred troops per day, suggest that the Russian military is at least outperforming the Ukrainian one, and the fact that Russia is distributing Russian passports to residents of conquered territories (at least in the Donbass), building new infrastructure, and taking over industrial operations there suggest that Russian leadership believes, at least, that it can dig into these territories and occupy them in the long term. This indicates either a high degree of confidence in the military, or a high degree of delusion.
Ukrainian sources claim that 100-200 soldiers are killed in action per day, with additional wounded. This suggests totals are now 14,000-28,000 KIA (7-14% of Ukraine's professional military; exact numbers of Territorial Defence/National Guard/assorted paramilitary personnel that have been mobilised for this war are not known). Russian sources claim 10,000-15,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war, although the true number is probably lower. The number of wounded is not known. Pro-Russian sources estimate total Ukrainian losses are 70-80,000, which is a fairly believable figure (35,000-50,000 WIA scales pretty well with the KIA estimates).
Russia has only acknowledged ~3,000 KIA, but pro-Russian sources claim about 13,000 KIA in total (5,000 Russian military and 8,000 LPR/DPR militias). Ukrainian and Western sources estimate total Russian losses at 35,000-40,000, and the number of Russian prisoners of war claimed by Ukraine is fairly small (2,000-ish), suggesting 20,000-25,000 WIA, which seems a bit low. I've seen estimates of ~175,000 Russian troops committed to Ukraine along with ~35,000 LPR/DPR paramilitaries, almost equal to the size of the Ukrainian professional military, and would mean that a minimum of ~20% of this force is now permanently out of action. Russia is fighting very cautiously, which suggests the real number may be higher.
What this does seem to indicate is that, where attacking forces usually lose more personnel than defending ones, Russia seems to have negated this advantage through its use of artillery and missiles, of which it uses approximately 10 times more than Ukraine does per day. These are apparently being resupplied without issue. I have seen it argued that no Western country at this point has the industrial capacity in existence to match Russian weapons production; I have no idea if that's true. Russian troops are also using the equipment they have been trained since the start of their careers to use, so this disparity isn't fixable by merely sending Western weapons to Ukraine; Ukrainian troops would have to then be trained to use those weapons, and that would take time, during which Russia can seize more territory and etc. Meanwhile, Western sources have published many articles claiming that Ukrainian conscripts (Territorial Defence, usually) are sent to the field with only five days, or only two weeks, etc, of training, which then contributes to higher death rates. Either way Ukraine loses ground, both bodies and acres.
Obviously, Russia could run out of ammunition next week or whatever. But it is not acting like it expects to. In fact it seems to have settled into a status quo of permanent war à la America's War on Terror. Or the sanctions could finally cripple Russia's economy and industrial capacity. But Western countries have been unwilling to implement these sanctions fully, because they would also cripple Western economies in the process. Or the Russian government could collapse. But it would probably be replaced with an even more hard-line far-right regime (in Russia, Putin is considered a "moderate"). And it's theoretically possible that some group of Ukrainian forces has been held in reserve and will emerge to launch a massive counteroffensive in August or November or whenever. But it looks very likely that there is no military victory possible for Ukraine at this point.
As for political solutions... as I said, it does seem as though Russia is now looking to annex at least the Donbass (rather than leaving it as an independent state or an autonomous region within Ukraine), and has no reason to accede to a political resolution that allows the Ukrainian government to take a few years to train up its military with NATO weapons and retake that territory. Russia will demand complete demilitarisation (and possibly settle for a compromise where Ukraine retains a much smaller military), or continue attacking until the Ukrainian state collapses as a coherent entity. So it also doesn't seem like there's any political victory possible for Ukraine. (And with Ukraine under martial law, having banned more than a dozen opposition parties and cracked down on press freedom, etc, its democracy has already essentially been "annihilated". It is now approximately as democratic as Russia is.)
So, yeah. The West was, for whatever reason, not prepared for this and will have to take the L. If it wants to win victories in the future either some amount of industrial warfare capacity has to be built for "next time", and a new Cold War should be undertaken, or Russia has to be accepted as a legitimate political actor with legitimate concerns, so that there will be future grounds for diplomatic negotiation. Or, of course, if the West is comfortable sacrificing Ukraine, the status quo can continue indefinitely in the hope that maybe Russia will collapse by itself eventually, the war will probably be over by Christmas, and who cares about the death toll. I have a guess as to which one most Western countries will choose.
Quote from: Todd on July 06, 2022, 03:58:58 PM
Your definition of "victory" includes a concession to Russia and does not mention reparations at all. Your definition would likely invite contempt from the Russians, and all that implies from one of your prior posts.
No matter, that will not happen.
It would end the war, and the only claim Putin could make would be that he still had forces in place as before. Not really a victory, though he undoubtedly would present it as such.
As for reparations, that is for the future. One thing at a time...
Quote from: Florestan on July 06, 2022, 12:45:37 PMHonestly, anyone who really thinks this war will eventually result in a complete Russian defeat and capitulation and in Ukraine's getting back all their territories, including Crimea, is delusional.
No tick ever agrees to be removed from its host.
Reports of a conversation between Putin and Macron just before the invasion suggest Putin has somewhat peculiar views, or at least expresses somewhat peculiar views, about the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government.
That there's been unrest in Ukrainian politics over the years, between Russophiles and western-looking factions, is undoubtedly true. That Zelenskyy is personally responsible for a bloody coup is rather more fanciful.
Good news from the UK: Finland & Sweden NATO memberships ratified + Boris Johnson is finally resigning! 0:) Thank you! $:)
🇬🇧
Quote from: amw on July 06, 2022, 05:25:06 PMI personally have no idea how long it "should" take to seize, say, a city of 400,000 inhabitants defended by a brigade of ~10-15,000 professional troops (Mariupol), and therefore cannot comment on whether taking 82 days to fully capture the city (all of the populated areas of which had been seized within the first 3 weeks) is a sign of military incompetence or not.
No one else on this forum does, either. Nor does anyone in the press. Nor does anyone in the military, really. Triumphalist proclamations of Russian weakness do not change that. There are a couple severe flaws with Western analyses on the military action in Ukraine. First, the Russian military is being compared to the US military and its bold, quick military successes in Afghanistan and Iraq. The unparalleled conventional firepower of the US military is to be celebrated, and Shock and Awe is a doctrine to embrace. Being able to launch over six-hundred cruise missiles on one city in one night, in tandem with traditional airstrikes, and being able to swoop in on capital cities of far smaller, weaker foes in a matter of days is the yardstick of successful war. Any country that cannot do that is second rate at best. Any non-American country that can do that is a threat to freedom. You get it. Second, proper definitions of victory and defeat are kind of hard to come by. The US demonstrated its He Man military power earlier this century. And it won the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Right?
Quote from: amw on July 06, 2022, 05:25:06 PMIt is now approximately as democratic as Russia is.
That The West should be willing to prolong a war for something called Ukrainian Democracy - whatever that is, exactly - is just another of the follies of this war. It would be far worse if it were not Slavs doing almost all of the dying.
Quote from: LKB on July 06, 2022, 06:16:22 PM
It would end the war, and the only claim Putin could make would be that he still had forces in place as before. Not really a victory, though he undoubtedly would present it as such.
As for reparations, that is for the future. One thing at a time...
What you describe is an ambiguous victory at best. It is not at all explicit. This is the exact opposite of your prior proclamation. Even this will not happen.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 07, 2022, 12:55:41 AM
Good news from the UK: Finland & Sweden NATO memberships ratified + Boris Johnson is finally resigning! 0:) Thank you! $:)
🇬🇧
The Romanian bicameral Parliament is on vacation but they'll be convened in a joint extraordinary session for the ratification, probably next week.
What I can't wait for, though, is your thanking Turkey and waving their flag when time comes. :D
Quote from: Florestan on July 07, 2022, 07:47:31 AM
The Romanian bicameral Parliament is on vacation but they'll be convened in a joint extraordinary session for the ratification, probably next week.
Good good... $:)
Quote from: Florestan on July 07, 2022, 07:47:31 AMWhat I can't wait for, though, is your thanking Turkey and waving their flag when time comes. :D
After some point there are no thanks. Early birdies deserve thanks. 0:)
Quote from: Florestan on July 07, 2022, 07:47:31 AM
What I can't wait for, though, is your thanking Turkey and waving their flag when time comes. :D
Turkey will stall at the last moment and demand additional concessions, mark my words....
Blackmail and extortion are Erdoğan's specialities.
Quote from: Que on July 07, 2022, 08:58:16 AMBlackmail and extortion are Erdoğan's specialities.
Blackmail and extortion are two of the key tools in all international politics.
The Great Global Rearmament
Ukraine and the Dangerous Rise in Military Spending (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2022-07-07/great-global-rearmament?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The%20Great%20Global%20Rearmament&utm_content=20220707&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Quote from: Nan Tian, Diego Lopes da Silva, and Alexandra MarksteinerIn the wake of Russia's invasion, it is easy to see these increases as necessary. But the belief that expanding defense budgets will necessarily help safeguard the world is both flawed and dangerous. Rather than deterring violence, rising military spending can contribute to a more fraught and explosive international system. It does this while diverting resources from other critical priorities, such as improving health care, preventing starvation, and fighting the climate crisis. These issues are just as important to the world's security as is stopping Russian aggression. But states must better balance the short-term military security crisis with long-term human security challenges if they have any hope of addressing the latter.
Quote from: 34th President of the United States of America, Dwight David EisenhowerEvery gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
The world has learned a lot in seventy years.
Thank you Poland! $:)
🇵🇱
Thank you Albania and Germany! $:)
🇦🇱 🇩🇪
The experts could be wrong and Russia conjure up ammo for its artillery. I'll bet they are right. Consider, though, that tank war failed, infantry can only go where artillery goes first and the air force can't operate outside the SAMNet.
As long as the ammo lasts the advantage in artillery tubes will continue and the Russians will be able to make some progress. When ammo gets perilously low the will have to conserve.
The Ukes now have the best artillery in the world, but the numbers are small and resupply will be a problem, though I expect that to improve.
We've understood for some time that the war will last at least for months and very likely into next year. NATO has no choice but to fight a war of attrition as long as Ukraine continues to defend itself.
I would say every gun is a theft from those who hunger for tax cuts. Even that is kind of false, since no country choose between essentials that can afford all of them. It underfunds according to an ideological presup, not an inability to provide, which in the case of the NATO countries is not a problem at all.
The poor are not fed, if they're not, because they don't deserve food, or whatever they lack. Money "runs out" for them, then un-runs out for the next tax cut.
It's common for a war to be "over by Christmas" at the beginning. This is one that might drag on. Russia has no position it can negotiate. At this point they will fight and hope they can outlast the resolve of their opponents. They will rely on NATO to stop resupplying Ukraine. Is Russia trying to convince Poland to abandon Ukraine? That would seem to be an impossible task.
Quote from: drogulus on July 08, 2022, 06:35:15 AM
The poor are not fed, if they're not, because they don't deserve food, or whatever they lack. Money "runs out" for them, then un-runs out for the next tax cut.
"Arm Ukraine, or feed the poor" isn't the choice, anyway. We could feed the poor, but the American affluent cannot be bothered. Token as the effort was, I remember collecting money in half-pint milk cartons for various needy folks when I was a boy. Gawd, what a loser I am.
Quote from: 34th President of the United States of America, Dwight David Eisenhower/quote]
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
If only Putin read that! He'd instantly stop the war and start feeding the hungry and clothing the naked.
Quote from: Florestan on July 08, 2022, 07:46:44 AM
If only Putin read that! He'd instantly stop the war and start feeding the hungry and clothing the naked.
I'd settle for US policymakers acting on the very well-known words. Even Ike couldn't, so powerful are US economic and institutional interests. Oh well. Onward to progress, and such.
Ukraine's Implausible Theories of Victory
The Fantasy of Russian Defeat and the Case for Diplomacy (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-07-08/ukraines-implausible-theories-victory?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Implausible%20Theories%20of%20Victory&utm_content=20220708&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Quote from: Todd on July 08, 2022, 07:56:45 AM
I'd settle for US policymakers acting on the very well-known words. Even Ike couldn't, so powerful are US economic and institutional interests. Oh well. Onward to progress, and such.
Honestly, I'm greatly puzzled by the fact that a cynical Realpolitiker like you believe that such sentimental, empty rhetoric should have any bearing on international politics --- and this, only a few posts after you stated that blackmail and extortion are key tools in international politics.
Plus, if Mahathma Gandhi had said that, he'd have been credible. Coming from a professional top-rank officer who fought in the WWII, those words are just sentimental, empty rhetoric.
Quote from: Florestan on July 08, 2022, 08:20:58 AM
Honestly, I'm greatly puzzled by the fact that a cynical Realpolitiker like you believe that such sentimental, empty rhetoric should have any bearing on international politics --- and this, only a few posts after you stated that blackmail and extortion are key tools in international politics.
Plus, if Mahathma Gandhi had said that, he'd have been credible. Coming from a professional top-rank officer who fought in the WWII, those words are just sentimental, empty rhetoric.
I suggest you read a bio on Ike. Ambrose's is the go-to, but there are others. Eisenhower was not using empty rhetoric. The desire to reduce the amount of public resources the US devotes to security is not incompatible with Realism. Quite the contrary.
Quote from: Todd on July 08, 2022, 07:58:08 AM
Ukraine's Implausible Theories of Victory
The Fantasy of Russian Defeat and the Case for Diplomacy (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-07-08/ukraines-implausible-theories-victory?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Implausible%20Theories%20of%20Victory&utm_content=20220708&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Thank you
Foreign Affairs for letting me read this article --- with which I mostly agree, on principle. The only problem is, at this moment neither Russia nor Ukraine have any incentive for, or any sincere desire for, a negotiated settlement.
From the article in FA this stands out:
Ukraine's leaders and its backers speak as if victory is just around the corner. But that view increasingly appears to be a fantasy.
No, they, meaning Ukes and supporters, say the war will take some time. They say what I said above, which is why I said it. Next year is not "just around the corner". Nobody is even saying "home by Christmas".
The name for this is "strawmanning". In order to bypass a realistic estimate that Russia can't continue a burn rate of its resources for many more month, a position no one espouses is refuted.
It's possible that Russia has resources unknown to military and intelligence evaluators. Perhaps the collapse of their military industry for lack of parts, chips especially, is not so great that artillery ammunition can't be produced at a high enough rate. Is that so?
If, if, Russia must conserve ammo they won't be able to hold on to much of the territory they now occupy. The Donbass conscripts are a dwindling resource. Putin evidently thinks mobilization is too dangerous for the regime, but I surmise that training hundreds of thousands of unmotivated conscripts would be hard because much of the competent military is committed to the fight. The elite units are in very bad shape because they don't rotate out until they are broken.
Facts are that Russia is now using old, outdated Soviet stock in missiles, ammunition and even tanks.
Also it has been drawing from Bellorussian stocks.These clues support the theory of low running stocks.
Victory for Ukraine, however finely tweezed, depends upon the West staying the course with them.
Quote from: Que on July 08, 2022, 11:59:38 AM
Facts are that Russia is now using old, outdated Soviet stock in missiles, ammunition and even tanks.
Also it has been drawing from Bellorussian stocks.These clues support the theory of low running stocks.
If you did not read the linked article, you may want to do so. Or not. Wishful thinking about Russian capabilities may not make for the best policy decisions.
Quote from: Todd on July 08, 2022, 05:30:25 PM
If you did not read the linked article, you may want to do so. Or not. Wishful thinking about Russian capabilities may not make for the best policy decisions.
I wouldn't base a policy decision on it. Hopefully does who have to, have reliable intelligence.
A lot depends on whether and to what extent the Russian weapons industry is affected by western sanctions - reports on that vary greatly.
And for the record: I think it is highly unlikely that Ukraine will defeat Russia on the battlefield.
Quote from: Que on July 08, 2022, 10:59:16 PMA lot depends on whether and to what extent the Russian weapons industry is affected by western sanctions - reports on that vary greatly.
A lack of consensus that the sanctions are having the hoped-for effects means precisely that the sanctions are not having the hoped-for effects. Look to North Korea and Iran as additional examples of the limits of sanctions.
Quote from: Que on July 08, 2022, 11:59:38 AM
Facts are that Russia is now using old, outdated Soviet stock in missiles, ammunition and even tanks.
Also it has been drawing from Bellorussian stocks.These clues support the theory of low running stocks.
For months I have been reading that Russia will run out of men and materials any day now. It doesn't seem to be happening. Their plans for a flash victory was a catastrophe, but now that they have reverted to creeping advance by obliterating civilian targets they don't need advanced weapons. It's just a question of how long they are willing to keep at it, and how long the civilian population can be prevented from knowing or caring about how many Russians and Ukrainians are dying in this pointless enterprise.
And I am sure they can survive sanctions at some level. They will just go back to the Soviet model of a more-or-less closed economy. That functioned, but it was an economy in which you had to wait on line and show your passport to receive your weekly allocation of eggs.
For all the alleged ineptitude of the Russians, they now have complete control over 20% of the Ukrainian territory. If the war stopped now, there is a high probability that after a negotiated settlement this percentage could be lower, for instance if Russia agreed to keep only Crimea and Donbas and return the Azov coastline and hinterland (which at this moment seems to be the best outcome for Ukraine and equivalent to a victory, especially if Russia also agreed to pay war reparations). But if war goes on undefinitely, there is a high probability that this percentage would be larger and their access to the Azov Sea, or even the Black Sea too, cut off permanently.
Some people seem to believe that just because Ukraine has superior weaponry supplied by the West this is going to result in their defeating Russia. I beg to differ. Do they also have enough personnel with the knowledge and expertise required to make effective use of those weapons? For instance, there's much talk about performant American jet fighters being supplied to Ukraine --- but how many Ukrainian pilots are there that can fly them? They can be trained --- why, of course, but how long does it take until they are fully able to use them effectively? And which nation would offer to train them in the full knowledge of the fact that such an act can legitimately be seen by Russia as an act of war against them?
The notion that this war cannot, and should not, be ended by anything else other than Russian unconditional capitulation and Ukraine retaking all his territories including Crimea is absurd and will do nothing else than prolonging the war for decades to come. The sooner Zelensky, Kuleba and their government will realize that "territories for peace" is inevitable if the war is to be ended asap, the better. The West is accused by some of fomenting the war --- but if the Ukrainian government formally asked for peace negotiations now, signalling their willingness to consider some territorial losses to Russia as inevitable, the West would have no other option than to back them and Russia would have no other option than to agree to peace talks. I mean, the Ulrainians have won the admiration and respect of the whole world for the bravery and determination with which they fought, but as the old saying goes, it takes a lot of courage to fight but a lot more to give up the fight.
Now that I think of it, if there had been willingness and good-will from both Ukrainian parties, nationalists and pro-Russian, perhaps a solution could have been found akin to the Lebanon political arrangements: the President always a Ukrainian, the prime-minister always a Russian, the Speaker of the Parliament Ukrainian or Russian by rotation; maybe even some degree of autonomy for certain regions. It could have worked or it could have resulted in complete chaos and Russian invasion nionetheless--- but at least they could've said they tried their best.
Quote from: Florestan on July 09, 2022, 05:29:07 AMSome people seem to believe that just because Ukraine has superior weaponry supplied by the West this is going to result in their defeating Russia. I beg to differ. Do they also have enough personnel with the knowledge and expertise required to make effective use of those weapons?
The Ukrainians absolutely do not and will not be able to make effective use of the weapons systems they receive, assuming the weapons systems all function. The Germans sent some tanks and artillery with no ammunition, for instance. These systems will not turn the tide of the war. There is a lot of wishful thinking and cynical exploitation and political calculation involved in sending weapons systems to the country.
Ukraine is being used.
Quote from: Todd on July 09, 2022, 05:39:36 AM
Ukraine is being used.
Not against their will, though. As I said, they could extract themselves from the whole quagmire if they really wanted.
Quote from: Florestan on July 09, 2022, 05:45:15 AM
Not against their will, though. As I said, they could extract themselves from the whole quagmire if they really wanted.
True enough, but the imbalance of power and the exploitation on display is nothing other than old-fashioned great power politics. It has been dressed up in prettier language, but the outcomes are as ugly as ever.
Quote from: Todd on July 09, 2022, 05:53:31 AM
True enough, but the imbalance of power and the exploitation on display is nothing other than old-fashioned great power politics. It has been dressed up in prettier language, but the outcomes are as ugly as ever.
Yes but we should not lose sight of the fact that it's actually Russia that started the whole bloody (figuratively and literally) mess. They too should officially signal at least a modicum of willingness to end it by a negotiated settlement (meaning they too should give up some of their territorial claims).
Old-fashioned great power politics will continue as long as human history will continue. It's truly and really inevitable.
Quote from: Florestan on July 09, 2022, 06:10:39 AMYes but we should not lose sight of the fact that it's actually Russia that started the whole bloody (figuratively and literally) mess.
This is of course debatable and has been debated. There will be no change in outlooks.
Russia will indeed have to be willing to cede something. But for right now, with the war grinding away in a manner that suits the Russians, they have no need to do so. The US could also publicly signal that it wants to pursue a settlement - and it will be a settlement between the world's currently two most significant powers - but it can easily afford to prolong the war. As always, from an American perspective, the battlefield is in a faraway place where the combatants speak a funny sounding language and places have strange names.
Quote from: Todd on July 09, 2022, 06:29:43 AM
As always, from an American perspective, the battlefield is in a faraway place where the combatants speak a funny sounding language and places have strange names.
Always? Seems to me that WWI and WWII don't qualify as "as always".
Quote from: Florestan on July 09, 2022, 06:40:49 AM
Always? Seems to me that WWI and WWII don't qualify as "as always".
Yes, those qualify. One of the key reasons the US emerged as the most powerful nation in the world is that it remained entirely unscathed during both wars, and its industrial and financial capacities soared during both wars. This is well known. The US has not had to endure a large-scale war on its soil since the 1860s. Now, thanks to an unmatched conventional force and a nuclear deterrent sufficient to wipe out humanity, it pretty much never will, as long as it remains a cohesive nation state. The US fights wars abroad and supports or opposes countries in other parts of the world.
Quote from: Todd on July 09, 2022, 06:56:09 AM
Yes, those qualify. One of the key reasons the US emerged as the most powerful nation in the world is that it remained entirely unscathed during both wars, and its industrial and financial capacities soared during both wars. This is well known. The US has not had to endure a large-scale war on its soil since the 1860s. Now, thanks to an unmatched conventional force and a nuclear deterrent sufficient to wipe out humanity, it pretty much never will, as long as it remains a cohesive nation state. The US fights wars abroad and supports or opposes countries in other parts of the world.
Fair enough.
This is also why many nations who've experienced Russian hegemony, when given the opportunity hasted to put themselves under the US protection. I can fully understand your opposing the US giving that protection and I''m sure that in turn you fully understand our seeking that protection. In both instances there's a case of "my country before all others". ;)
Quote from: Florestan on July 09, 2022, 07:02:20 AMThis is also why many nations who've experienced Russian hegemony, when given the opportunity hasted to put themselves under the US protection. I can fully understand your opposing the US giving that protection and I'm sure that in turn you fully understand our seeking that protection.
I understand very well why smaller countries seek protection from the US. It is obvious. There are better ways to achieve that aim than recklessly expanding NATO against the explicit request - demand, really - by Russia not to do so. We are now witnessing what happens when things are pushed too far. In response, the US has overextended itself strategically and exposed the extent of its financial power, which while enormous, is not as all-powerful as hoped. The Chinese government is learning rather a lot from this episode.
Quote from: Todd on July 09, 2022, 07:11:01 AM
I understand very well why smaller countries seek protection from the US. It is obvious. There are better ways to achieve that aim
Which ones? I'm really interested in your point ---- but please, Todd, make it explicitly, don't just send me to various links and references. Please, explain it in your own words. Thank you.
I'll let the Ukrainians decide what a successful defense requires. It's my generous nature, and avoids unnecessary quibbles about the meaning of victory.
I'll also choose to view statements about weakening Russia as a necessary means, not an outcome chosen for itself. If Russia could be thwarted in its imperial designs without weakening it, sure, why not?
Can Ukraine be defended by diplomacy? What about thoughts and prayers, or magic spells? Is it a war crime to use witchcraft instead of drones? All options are on the table.
One might say Ukraine hired itself out to defend Europe if that was more important to them than defending themselves. I doubt that's the case. They're in it for themselves first, and ask for "exploitation", also known as "help", as a means for what matters most to them.
The tenth country seems to have ratified you know what: Thank you Netherlands! $:)
🇳🇱
Quote from: Florestan on July 09, 2022, 07:25:39 AM
Which ones? I'm really interested in your point ---- but please, Todd, make it explicitly, don't just send me to various links and references. Please, explain it in your own words. Thank you.
I have for years, maybe more than a decade, in dozens or hundreds of posts. Search "offshore balancing" to start.
I don't post on demand.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 09, 2022, 12:28:56 PM
The tenth country seems to have ratified you know what: Thank you Netherlands! $:)
🇳🇱
Do any of those 10 nations spend 2% of their GDP like they agreed to?
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 09, 2022, 05:05:42 PM
Do any of those 10 nations spend 2% of their GDP like they agreed to?
Poland, Estonia, and the UK. Eastern Europeans are desperate for US protection, and fearful of Russia, hence the willingness to spend, and the UK is almost a vassal state. It is unreasonable to expect Canada to devote 2% of GDP to defense since the US would automatically and properly treat any attack on Canada as an immediate threat to US security. As Trudeau demonstrated publicly, Canada's PMs will sign whatever important agreements they are told to sign. When it comes time, they will do whatever they are told on Arctic matters. Canuckians get a pass. Most European countries act in bad faith now and always will. Americans cannot trust Europeans, generally speaking.
Quote from: Florestan on July 09, 2022, 05:29:07 AM
For all the alleged ineptitude of the Russians, they now have complete control over 20% of the Ukrainian territory. If the war stopped now, there is a high probability that after a negotiated settlement this percentage could be lower, for instance if Russia agreed to keep only Crimea and Donbas and return the Azov coastline and hinterland (which at this moment seems to be the best outcome for Ukraine and equivalent to a victory, especially if Russia also agreed to pay war reparations). But if war goes on undefinitely, there is a high probability that this percentage would be larger and their access to the Azov Sea, or even the Black Sea too, cut off permanently.
Do you know what the percentage was before this year, from Crimea and the Donbas rebels?
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 09, 2022, 05:05:42 PM
Do any of those 10 nations spend 2% of their GDP like they agreed to?
I'd rather live in a peaceful World where there was no need to waste 2 % of GDP on defence. So much good could be done with that money.
Quote from: Madiel on July 09, 2022, 09:03:21 PM
Do you know what the percentage was before this year, from Crimea and the Donbas rebels?
Actually Crimea is not included in the 20% percentage.
I don't know the exact percentage before the war but given that the rebels controlled only a part of the Donbas, not the whole region, I guess it was much less than 20%.
Quote from: Todd on July 09, 2022, 04:56:21 PM
I don't post on demand.
It was not a demand but a polite request (I used "please" and "thank you"). I'm fine with you refusing to answer, though, no problem at all.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 10, 2022, 02:02:06 AM
I'd rather live in a peaceful World where there was no need to waste 2 % of GDP on defence. So much good could be done with that money.
So when someone attacks you have to beg others to defend you.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 05:01:09 AM
So when someone attacks you have to beg others to defend you.
European members of NATO have developed a sense of entitlement to US defense. The Russo-Ukrainian War has exposed with perfect clarity how feeble European countries have become, but how bold they are in making demands on the US.
O ciel, che noia!
Some European countries are not making any "bold demands on the U.S.", and were almost begged —by the US— in their day to join NATO.
Quote from: ritter on July 10, 2022, 05:17:03 AMSome European countries are not making any "bold demands on the U.S.", and were almost begged —by the US— in their day to join NATO.
True, some have not made demands in this war. Yet none are willing to exit NATO, which they can opt to do. They remain security consumers content to rely on the US.
As to the US begging them to join NATO, that is the wrong verb. Coerce or blackmail or force are all better choices.
Quote from: Todd on July 10, 2022, 05:36:19 AM
As to the US begging them to join NATO, that is the wrong verb. Coerce or blackmail or force are all better choices.
Yeah, it was carrot and stick tactics.... ;D
Quote from: Florestan on July 10, 2022, 04:21:56 AM
Actually Crimea is not included in the 20% percentage.
I don't know the exact percentage before the war but given that the rebels controlled only a part of the Donbas, not the whole region, I guess it was much less than 20%.
Okay.
From what I was looking at recently they still don't control the whole Donbas (all of Luhansk oblast but not all of Donetsk). In some ways the bigger worry is how much of the south they control outside of that.
Quote from: Madiel on July 10, 2022, 06:11:03 AM
Okay.
From what I was looking at recently they still don't control the whole Donbas (all of Luhansk oblast but not all of Donetsk). In some ways the bigger worry is how much of the south they control outside of that.
They basically cut off Ukraine's access to the Azov Sea.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 05:01:09 AM
So when someone attacks you have to beg others to defend you.
Finland has strong defence for its size, but against Russia size terror states additional protection is wise.
The purpose of military spending of the US is to enrich the military industry which bribes the politicians, NOT to protect European countries which is "added value". So, American taxpayers pay the same regardless of how many European countries are part of NATO. In my opinion the US could easily half its military spendings and use the saved money elsewhere such as intuition free higher education. If anything, the US might even have a easier time protecting Estonia, because as part of NATO Finland might become responsible of Estonia.
It is not that we can't defend ourself. It is NOT WANTING TO NEED TO DO THAT!!! WAR SUCKS!!! Being in NATO keeps Russia AWAY!! We want to live in peace!!! Simple as that! WE don't want Americans to need to protect us. That's the point. Russia knowlng the US WOULD protect us keeps them away
Quote from: 71 dB on July 10, 2022, 06:57:59 AMIf anything, the US might even have a easier time protecting Estonia, because as part of NATO Finland might become responsible of Estonia.
Some of the ideas on the internet are rather disconnected from practical reality.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 10, 2022, 06:57:59 AM
Finland has strong defence for its size, but against Russia size terror states additional protection is wise.
The purpose of military spending of the US is to enrich the military industry which bribes the politicians, NOT to protect European countries which is "added value". So, American taxpayers pay the same regardless of how many European countries are part of NATO. In my opinion the US could easily half its military spendings and use the saved money elsewhere such as intuition free higher education. If anything, the US might even have a easier time protecting Estonia, because as part of NATO Finland might become responsible of Estonia.
It is not that we can't defend ourself. It is NOT WANTING TO NEED TO DO THAT!!! WAR SUCKS!!! Being in NATO keeps Russia AWAY!! We want to live in peace!!! Simple as that! WE don't want Americans to need to protect us. That's the point. Russia knowlng the US WOULD protect us keeps them away
Since February the US has given 7 billion dollars in military aid. Has anyone else given that much?
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 07:17:33 AM
Since February the US has given 7 billion dollars in military aid. Has anyone else given that much?
This understates US aid rather a lot.
Kiel Institute for the World Economy: Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/)
Statista: Total bilateral aid commitments to Ukraine between January 24 and July 1, 2022, by country and type (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/)
Japan has given more aid, though humanitarian aid, than almost all European countries. On a percentage of GDP basis, Poland is shelling out the dough.
Quote from: Todd on July 10, 2022, 07:30:34 AM
This understates US aid rather a lot.
Kiel Institute for the World Economy: Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/)
Statista: Total bilateral aid commitments to Ukraine between January 24 and July 1, 2022, by country and type (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/)
Japan has given more aid, though humanitarian aid, than almost all European countries. On a percentage of GDP basis, Poland is shelling out the dough.
The danger is the US has given 1/3 of it supply of stinger and javalins. It may take years to get back the level we had in stinger missiles
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 07:17:33 AM
Since February the US has given 7 billion dollars in military aid. Has anyone else given that much?
That is a lot of money, but still barely 1 % of the military budget.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 07:44:22 AM
The danger is the US has given 1/3 of it supply of stinger and javalins. It may take years to get back the level we had in stinger missiles
That is not particularly dangerous, actually. A DoD official, though I cannot recall which one, pointed out to Congress that the US has other, more capable systems and can afford to give away 40+ year old (Stinger) and 25+ year old (Javelin) technologies from
publicly stated stockpiles.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 07:17:33 AM
Since February the US has given 7 billion dollars in military aid. Has anyone else given that much?
You know, there's a Bible parable that points out how giving is better measured by what you have left over afterwards.
Quote from: Madiel on July 10, 2022, 08:24:43 AM
You know, there's a Bible parable that points out how giving is better measured by what you have left over afterwards.
Sure you would think differently if we use up our supplies and China attacks Australia.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 08:40:22 AM
Sure you would think differently if we use up our supplies and China attacks Australia.
Nobody forced the US to take the role of World police after WWII. The US took that role willingly and has certainly benefited from it. So, what exactly are you whining about? Europe and Australia certainly are not to blame for the problems (corruption/oligarchy/cultural division/gun violence etc.) in the US.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 10, 2022, 09:07:08 AM
Nobody forced the US to take the role of World police after WWII. The US took that role willingly and has certainly benefited from it. So, what exactly are you whining about? Europe and Australia certainly are not to blame for the problems (corruption/oligarchy/cultural division/gun violence etc.) in the US.
So you would not say anything if the US stopped supplying the Ukraine?
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 09:11:24 AM
So you would not say anything if the US stopped supplying the Ukraine?
If the US stopped supplying the Ukraine, I would definitely be at least curious about why the change in politics, but that was not my point. My point wasn't what the rest of the World thinks/feels about the US being the World policy. My point is nobody is forcing the US to supply the Ukraine. The US does it willingly, because the US wants a "western" Ukraine rather than one annexed to Russia. The reasons can be cynical.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 10, 2022, 09:24:04 AM
If the US stopped supplying the Ukraine, I would definitely be at least curious about why the change in politics, but that was not my point. My point wasn't what the rest of the World thinks/feels about the US being the World policy. My point is nobody is forcing the US to supply the Ukraine. The US does it willingly, because the US wants a "western" Ukraine rather than one annexed to Russia. The reasons can be cynical.
Politicians in the US like do this. A lot of Americans think it is time to take of our people first.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 09:26:40 AM
A lot of Americans think it is time to take of our people first.
Well, you Americans need to start by taking money out of politics. Before that happens, nothing will fundamentally change.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 10, 2022, 09:46:13 AM
Well, you Americans need to start by taking money out of politics. Before that happens, nothing will fundamentally change.
And term limits. No need for anyone to be in Congress over 40 years. And maybe time to move US capital.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 08:40:22 AM
Sure you would think differently if we use up our supplies and China attacks Australia.
The US will not use up its supplies and China is in no position to attack Australia right now. China does not yet have a sufficient capacity to project power in such a way, and even by its estimates it will not until sometime next decade. To counter that, the AUKUS deal demonstrated the new level of commitment by the English-speaking allies, which will grow substantially over the next generation. Australia will become the Indo-Pacific equivalent of the UK for the US.
Quote from: Todd on July 10, 2022, 09:53:25 AM
The US will not use up its supplies and China is in no position to attack Australia right now. China does not yet have a sufficient capacity to project power in such a way, and even by its estimates it will not until sometime next decade. To counter that, the AUKUS deal demonstrated the new level of commitment by the English-speaking allies, which will grow substantially over the next generation. Australia will become the Indo-Pacific equivalent of the UK for the US.
And if the population stats are right, China will soon at the point where most of their people will over the age of 60.
But it looks like another situation where they will want the US to be the one to provide most of the military supplies.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 09:59:16 AMAnd if the population stats are right, China will soon at the point where most of their people will over the age of 60.
China does indeed face demographic challenges, which is why the one-child policy was eliminated. India will soon overtake China in population, with one report indicating that happened this past March. If one considers the Indian sub-continent as a whole, it is already larger than China. This will have global security implications, which is why the US should and will pursue closer relations with India.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 09:59:16 AMBut it looks like another situation where they will want the US to be the one to provide most of the military supplies.
Given Australia's key strategic location and vast size, it is the right partner in the right place at the right time. Even while the US should significantly reduce security commitments to Europe, it should increase them in the Indo-Pacific. Alas, we will try to expand both. That is sheer folly.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 10, 2022, 07:47:57 AM
That is a lot of money, but still barely 1 % of the military budget.
Exactly. The US military budget for 2022 is $778 billion, and supporting Ukraine has sofar caused not a single US casualty.
Just compare that with the monumental effort by the Bush administration to destabilise the Middle East and facilitate Muslim fundamentalist terrorism, also know as the Iraq War: 4,424 US casualties (I guess other casualties (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War) are not relevant in this context) and a $758 billion military budget and almost
$2 trillion (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-taxpayers-spent-8000-each-2-trillion-iraq-war-study-2020-2?international=true&r=US&IR=T) in total costs.
So what, American interests in Europe are not important enough? ::)
Quote from: Que on July 10, 2022, 11:27:14 AMExactly. The US military budget for 2022 is $778 billion, and supporting Ukraine has sofar caused not a single US casualty.
That does not make spending tens of billions of dollars - not just seven billion dollars - sound policy. Not even close.
Quote from: Que on July 10, 2022, 11:27:14 AMSo what, American interests in Europe are not important enough? ::)
How much has the US spent on defending Europe over the last eighty years, in inflation adjusted dollars? The DoD does not break out expenditures in a way that allows one to discern that information, purposefully. I am confident it far exceeds $2 trillion.
Europe is the wealthiest, highest income region in the world. It should provide for its own defense.
Quote from: Que on July 10, 2022, 11:27:14 AM
Exactly. The US military budget for 2022 is $778 billion, and supporting Ukraine has sofar caused not a single US casualty.
Just compare that with the monumental effort by the Bush administration to destabilise the Middle East and facilitate Muslim fundamentalist terrorism, also know as the Iraq War: 4,424 US casualties (I guess other casualties (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War) are not relevant in this context) and a $758 billion military budget and almost $2 trillion (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-taxpayers-spent-8000-each-2-trillion-iraq-war-study-2020-2?international=true&r=US&IR=T) in total costs.
So what, American interests in Europe are not important enough? ::)
Why is it the job of the US to supply the Ukraine with military supplies?
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 11:35:31 AM
Why is it the job of the US to supply the Ukraine with military supplies?
It is not. But the response is an example of intrinsically contradictory views: On the one hand, the US acts as world policeman of its own accord, but on the other it should spend more acting as world policeman. Especially to defend Europe.
The US should not act as world policeman. Europe should defend itself. From Europe, it turns out.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 11:35:31 AM
Why is it the job of the US to supply the Ukraine with military supplies?
It's a choice, up to the US. Neither Ukraine nor Europe in general is "entitled" no any of the US tax payer's money.
But in my view supporting Ukraine is money better spent than the huge amount of money and human lives wasted on the multiple US military "adventures" of the past decades.
Quote from: Que on July 10, 2022, 11:48:56 AMBut in my view supporting Ukraine is money better spent than the huge amount of money and human lives wasted on the multiple US military "adventures" of the past decades.
How?
And why can't European powers provide the support instead? Surely the fate of Ukraine is of even greater salience to people who share the same continent.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 01:24:05 PMAmericans may think it a waste of money to protect the Ukraine.
Polls show most Americans support economic warfare, in a notional way, along with providing military materiel, but very few support direct involvement of American troops. At one point, about a third supported deploying American forces, which then dropped, and now it is back to about a third. The fact that this would lead to WWIII should make reasonable people question the value of some poll questions and many poll respondents' knowledge of foreign policy.
It should also be noted that support has waxed and waned over the past four months, and as with all wars, support will wane more over time. If the Fed can somehow reduce inflation without causing a recession, then positive support for economic warfare and providing materiel to Ukraine could continue for longer than normal given the pro-war stance of corporate press outlets. Given the nature of inflation and its causes, reducing inflation will require contractionary monetary policy that will lead to a recession, at which point support for economic warfare and the war more generally will decline much more rapidly among the American public.
As to references to Trump, that is the latest variant of using Rush Limbaugh or Fox News as a rejoinder. It means nothing at all.
Quote from: Johnnie Burgess on July 10, 2022, 08:40:22 AM
Sure you would think differently if we use up our supplies and China attacks Australia.
Sure I wouldn't, because you're never going to "use up your supplies" and if you engaged your brain you would understand that isn't even relevant to what I said. Because my point has to do with the whole "my donation is bigger than yours" dick-swinging contest.
7 billion dollars causes you no pain. Asking whether anyone else has donated more than 7 billion dollars is ignoring what 7 billion dollars would actually mean to another country.
Quote from: Madiel on July 10, 2022, 03:15:28 PM
Sure I wouldn't, because you're never going to "use up your supplies" and if you engaged your brain you would understand that isn't even relevant to what I said. Because my point has to do with the whole "my donation is bigger than yours" dick-swinging contest.
7 billion dollars causes you no pain. Asking whether anyone else has donated more than 7 billion dollars is ignoring what 7 billion dollars would actually mean to another country.
I like how that is the part you object to and not the hilariously stupid hypothetical of China randomly attacking Australia! :laugh:
Quote from: DavidW on July 11, 2022, 04:36:18 AM
I like how that is the part you object to and not the hilariously stupid hypothetical of China randomly attacking Australia! :laugh:
Meh. I'm used to hearing about that particular fear in various forms. We're usually worried about economic power rather than military. Our relationship with China is extremely complex.
Quote from: Madiel on July 11, 2022, 04:50:57 AM
We're usually worried about economic power rather than military.
Yes. China does it 21st century style. They "conquer" other countries with money rather than military force.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 11, 2022, 05:26:05 AM
Yes. China does it 21st century style. They "conquer" other countries with money rather than military force.
But not indefinitely...
While at the time l would have preferred President Biden to have used more finesse and less candor, since the war in Europe I've wondered whether the explicit statement of direct military support for Taiwan wasn't a happy accident.
It may have bought the ROC enough time for Ukraine to play out however it will, and allow the US to start repositioning forces and material to augment the extant resources in the Pacific.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 11, 2022, 05:26:05 AM
Yes. China does it 21st century style. They "conquer" other countries with money rather than military force.
Sri Lanka being one example of this? Who loves China in Asia?
Thank you Bulgaria and Luxembourg for ratifying Finland's NATO membership! $:)
🇧🇬🇱🇺
12 countries have ratified, 8 countries are in the process and 10 countries, dominantly South European countries who don't care about security in the North and therefore are not in the hurry and haven't started the process yet. :P
Ukrainian forces could wipe out all of 'exhausted' Russian troops' territorial gains, retired US general says (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-exhausted-russian-troops-back-borders-us-general-2022-7)
The general is none other than Lt General Ben Hodges. Only six, maybe twelve, and no more than twenty-four to several hundred months left to go. No need for settlement talks.
Indeed, why resist when appeasement has worked so well in the past...
On the internet, everything is always like WWII.
I was thinking of making a thread with the question: what would really happen if China invaded Taiwan? Too much politics on GMG? I'm genuinely curious what people think. I really have no idea. I've had someone tell me that China would breeze in and that the U.S. and Japan would stick to the sidelines. Many people say that too much tech business runs through Taiwan to let it go OR to fight over it and let it be destroyed or barred. I don't know much about the Ukraine at all. I've met both HK and Taiwan students. The destruction of freedom in HK is very real to me and painful. And I have (well, had) "friends" on FB who are so far left they're China apologists and considered HK a wing of the CIA (as they do the Dalai Lama). I think Todd brings up a very real question and it's probably an even more difficult one for the Japanese: "What are you willing to do?" "What are you willing to sacrifice?" Japanese are extremely insulated. You might think Americans are, but Americans at least think it's their business (or should be - which maybe indeed be the problem) and know they have something to do with it. Japanese young people don't even know their country is powerful. They have their heads buried in concrete.
I don't understand the connection between "being lefr" and being China apologists.
The main apologists are those wallowing in cheap Chinese products not giving a damn about Chinese internal politivs or its International influence.
Both of which I am deeply sceptical of.
Quote from: Todd on July 15, 2022, 06:26:03 AM
On the internet, everything is always like WWII.
Of all the things that could realistically be like WWII, a war in Europe would have to be pretty damn high up the list.
Quote from: Todd on July 15, 2022, 06:26:03 AM
On the internet, everything is always like WWII.
Not long after the invasion, I mentioned the possibility of a Finland scenario: a land-for-peace deal.
But that ship has sailed long time ago. Putin clearly wasn't interested in any negotiations before he had achieved his minimal war goals. Well, he still hasn't achieved those goals but is still convinced he will be able to do so.
In the meantime Russian troops have destroyed anything in their way and have committed terrible atrocities. Putin is not waging war against the Ukrainian army but against Ukraine as an independent nation. That leaves little room for negotiation with the Ukranians - they are fighting for the survival of their country.
Quote from: The new erato on July 15, 2022, 11:00:26 PM
I don't understand the connection between "being lefr" and being China apologists.
The main apologists are those wallowing in cheap Chinese products not giving a damn about Chinese internal politivs or its International influence.
Both of which I am deeply sceptical of.
Oh man there's a whole contingent of off-the-charts China apologists. It's not made up and it's no joke.
Here's one of the main dudes. Check him out. He's for real: https://peoplesforum.org/instructor/danny-haiphong/
ETA: the above "activist's" articles: https://www.laprogressive.com/author/danny-haiphong
Seems like there are three new NATO ratifiers: Thank you Croatia, Latvia and Slovenia! $:)
🇭🇷🇱🇻🇸🇮
Quote from: 71 dB on July 16, 2022, 03:00:24 AM
Seems like there are three new NATO ratifiers: Thank you Croatia, Latvia and Slovenia! $:)
🇭🇷🇱🇻🇸🇮
Which countries are still left to ratify?
Quote from: Que on July 16, 2022, 12:04:24 AMNot long after the invasion, I mentioned the possibility of a Finland scenario: a land-for-peace deal.
It would mean something if the US President said something similar. Even if Biden made public statements along similar lines today, it could have an impact on actions of both sides. Neither the US nor the Russians have any interest in doing so. The US is continuing the reckless expansion of NATO, for instance.
Quote from: milk on July 15, 2022, 10:45:55 PMI was thinking of making a thread with the question: what would really happen if China invaded Taiwan?
It is a possible war. Given unconstrained US militarism and imperialism under false names, there is a too high probability that the US could enter into a war. The US has material economic interests in Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, which offers neither economic nor strategic benefit to the US. And as Douglas MacArthur famously said, Taiwan is an "unsinkable aircraft carrier", so it offers long-standing potential military advantage. (MacArthur was bloodthirsty, racist, and vainglorious, and Truman canned him, so remember that, too.)
Fortunately, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden is pushing hard for the Senate to pass the CHIPS for America Act, a $52 billion return to industrial policy and old-fashioned mercantilism to help address one of the critical economic interests. Now, Intel is a massive presence in Oregon and is the largest private employer in the state, so of course Wyden is pushing for it, but he is right to do so on national grounds as well. Trump was not unique, and certain aspects of Trumpism are now bipartisan and growing in popularity. If the US can achieve a material degree of autarky in some key defense related industries, it can walk away from Taiwan. Zero Americans should die for the ghost of Chiang Kai-shek.
Quote from: Que on July 16, 2022, 04:49:44 AM
Which countries are still left to ratify?
The official list has 14 out of 30 countries that have ratified. So quite a few left. I worked out it's:
Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Turkiye, United States.
Quote from: Que on July 16, 2022, 04:49:44 AM
Which countries are still left to ratify?
Countries that have
started the ratification process, but are not done:
Belgium
Lithuania
Montenegro
North-Macedonia
France
Hungary
The United StatesCountries that have not
started the ratification process yet:
Spain
Italy
Greece
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Türkeya
The Czech Republic
Quote from: 71 dB on July 16, 2022, 06:19:36 AM
Countries that have not started the ratification process yet:
Spain
Italy
Greece
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Türkeya
The Czech Republic
Given that a Romanian proverb says "Take it easy, man, the Turks are not invading us!" --- meaning "There's really no hurry at all!" --- I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey ratified it before Romania. ;D.
But hey, at least we'll ratify it unanimously, I can guarantee you that. ;)
Quote from: Florestan on July 16, 2022, 07:35:36 AM
Given that a Romanian proverb says "Take it easy, man, the Turks are not invading us!" --- meaning "There's really no hurry at all!" --- I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey ratified it before Romania. ;D.
But hey, at least we'll ratify it unanimously, I can guarantee you that. ;)
Well, we will see who ratifies before who and who ratifies last. Clearly in the South Europe the NATO memberships of Sweden and Finland are not top priority in politics while in the Nordic region it clearly was!
Quote from: 71 dB on July 16, 2022, 09:49:03 AM
Clearly in the South Europe the NATO memberships of Sweden and Finland are not top priority in politics while in the Nordic region it clearly was!
That is true. There's another Romanian proverb: "having one's sacks in the cart already" ---meaning one has already achieved their goals and need not care about other people's not achieving theirs --- so there. ;D
'France Has Delivered Almost Nothing'
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO's former secretary-general, is not impressed by Emmanuel Macron's diplomacy with Russia over Ukraine. (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/07/anders-fogh-rasmussen-interview-ukraine-war/670545/)
The article and interview are mostly fluff (I mean, it is The Atlantic), but it mentions one potentially important item, the so-called Economic Article 5. More info is contained here:
Memo on an "Economic Article 5" to Counter Authoritarian Coercion (http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/research/policy-brief/memo-economic-article-5-counter-authoritarian-coercion?utm_source=pn&utm_campaign=rpt&utm_medium=email&utm_term=econ-article-5)
Aside from a tail wagging the dog feel to the proposal, and the difficulties implementing it, it is noteworthy since it actively downplays and really dismisses the role of the WTO, thereby eroding globalization further in exchange for enhanced regionalism, which coincides with expanding reliance on Mercantalist policies across the globe. While the think tank types who thought this up and their political frontmen present this as a tool to be used by democracies (ie, The West) against various bad actors (ie, Russia and China), formalizing and implementing such a policy option increases the probability of its use against other countries for other reasons. It is very difficult to see senior US leaders ceding direction of economic warfare to lesser powers, though. The US and only the US determines how and when to impose certain sanctions and to limit access to US financial markets. Such things should never be left to Europeans.
Thank you Lithuania! $:)
🇱🇹
Ukraine graft concerns resurface as Russia war goes on (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-government-and-politics-494af1bc0145fb2d16c76b0abf3f5cda)
Quote from: Florestan on July 17, 2022, 10:41:05 AM
That is true. There's another Romanian proverb: "having one's sacks in the cart already" ---meaning one has already achieved their goals and need not care about other people's not achieving theirs --- so there. ;D
Some goals achieved. Thank you Romania for ratifying! $:)
🇷🇴17 countries of 30 have now ratified the NATO memberships within one month! Finland is happy with the speed so far, but the question is how long will it take for the last countries to ratify?
Not a [premature] victory lap. but not a headline I was expecting to read today:
Ukraine Is Winning (https://www.thebulwark.com/ukraine-is-winning/)
Separately: Do you still need this war?
Thank you Belgium for ratifying! $:)
🇧🇪
60 % of the NATO countries have ratified and only 4 countries (Italy, Greece, The Czech Republic & Türkeya) haven't started the process.
Quote from: 71 dB on July 22, 2022, 07:06:39 AM
60 % of the NATO countries have ratified and only 4 countries (Italy, Greece, The Czech Republic & Türkeya) haven't started the process.
Rather surprising about the Czech Republic, less so about Türkiye.
In any case, congratulations!
Quote from: 71 dB on July 21, 2022, 02:45:16 AM
Some goals achieved. Thank you Romania for ratifying! $:)
🇷🇴
Cu plăcere,
Poju! Bun venit în NATO,
Finlanda și
Suedia!
From the BBC: Ukraine war: Explosions rock Ukrainian port hours after grain deal (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62276392)
Quote from: Florestan on July 22, 2022, 09:24:03 AM
Cu plăcere, Poju! Bun venit în NATO, Finlanda și Suedia!
I can guess/deduce the meaning of your post without Google translate. 0:)
Quote from: Todd on July 23, 2022, 07:27:06 AM
From the BBC: Ukraine war: Explosions rock Ukrainian port hours after grain deal (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62276392)
Duplicitous behavior by the Russians? Shocking. ::)
Quote from: LKB on July 23, 2022, 03:31:26 PM
Duplicitous behavior by the Russians? Shocking. ::)
More games....Russia used highly sophisticated and accurate (and expensive) Kalibr cruise missiles, so the attack wasn't accidental.
Putin doesn't want a deal, any deal. He wants to win and he wants maximum leverage to achieve his goals. Holding the trigger for an international food crisis is too much power to give away.
The Russians started by denying it, but have now admitted, that they hit two ships with the attack. The usual strategy in embarrassing attacks has been to say officially, that the Ukrainians did it themselves.
Generally, after a time with more pessimism as regards the Ukrainian options, the tide has now turned again in most media and expert reports, suggesting that Russia is indeed running further out of ressources (they've apparently started recruiting and paying prisoners, plus soldiers from areas bordering Japan, as well as using further outdated and imprecise equipment, and equipment meant for different functions). Whereas the Ukrainian, oncoming counteroffensive will likely have at least some success. HIMARS and other bombings have allegedly hit 100 major Russian installations recently, including 30 ammunition deposits far away from the front line. Also, Ukrainian daily losses have gone down a lot, by 2/3, Zelenskyi said yesterday. But the claims of a counteroffensive involving 1 million men are unrealistic, since some are needed nationwide for defense, and Ukrainian education ressources limited. Which is why more countries are now about to offer military schooling, including Denmark.
Yet, a 'Korean' stalemate somewhere, say bordering Crimea, seems likely, for the time to come.
Quote from: Que on July 24, 2022, 12:30:21 AMMore games....Russia used highly sophisticated and accurate (and expensive) Kalibr cruise missiles, so the attack wasn't accidental.
Putin doesn't want a deal, any deal. He wants to win and he wants maximum leverage to achieve his goals. Holding the trigger for an international food crisis is too much power to give away.
Russia has been a great power for centuries. It is not a game so much as a successful tactic to demonstrate and exercise its power. An agreement with a toothless international organization that was brokered by a subsidiary NATO member is no substitute for an agreement with the one power that actually matters to the Russians.
Quote from: MusicTurner on July 24, 2022, 01:02:25 AMYet, a 'Korean' stalemate somewhere, say bordering Crimea, seems likely, for the time to come.
To clarify this (inaccurate) analogy, just where would American troops be stationed, since that is the most significant aspect of the Korean Armistice Agreement? Or will Europeans finally step up and accept their own security burden? jk - I know that will not happen.
Quote from: Todd on July 24, 2022, 05:16:00 AM
Russia has been a great power for centuries. It is not a game so much as a successful tactic to demonstrate and exercise its power. An agreement with a toothless international organization that was brokered by a subsidiary NATO member is no substitute for an agreement with the one power that actually matters to the Russians.
Negotiations with the US, you mean? It's not hard to figure out what Putin's demands would be.
The lifting of all sanctions and for the US to surrender Ukraine to whatever fate Putin has in mind for it.
In return, he will leave the Baltic states alone. For now.... he will come back for those later.
"Hungary's nationalist prime minister Viktor Orban Saturday called for US-Russian peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, lashing out at the European Union's strategy on the conflict. In a speech in Romania, the 59-year-old ultra-conservative leader also defended his vision of an "unmixed Hungarian race" as he criticised mixing with "non-Europeans." Orban has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, but maintains an ambiguous position on the conflict."
Quote from: Que on July 24, 2022, 11:46:52 PMNegotiations with the US, you mean?
Of course negotiations with the US. No other Western country means anything. Easing sanctions in return for even temporary Baltic security and Ukrainian neutrality (ie, being under Russian sphere of influence) seems quite reasonable to me. Of course, I would prefer to see Ukrainians no longer die for American imperial ambitions.
Instead, the US will continue on with underperforming sanctions and funneling money and weapons to Ukraine to prolong the war and add to the pointless civilian deaths. Proxy wars are always tough on actual battlefield countries, while great powers an ocean away and small, insignificant northern European countries can talk tough as they bear no burden. Internet warfare is always so easy.
Now Greece and Türkeya are the only countries not having started the ratification process.
The Greek Parliament (Boule) is not in full session during the summer and by constitutional stipulation it cannot ratify international agreements when not in full session. I expect ratification of Finland's and Sweden's NATO accession protocols to be among the first things to be done when parliamentary full session begins again in October.
Unfortunately, l suspect Türkeya will stall matters for months yet. No true NATO ally would ever meet with Putin in the present circumstances, and Erdoğan will undoubtedly want to squeeze as much as possible out of both candidate nations while he appeases Putin at the same time.
"The Russian state-controlled energy company Gazprom has announced a drastic cut to gas deliveries through its main pipeline to Europe from Wednesday.
The Russian gas export monopoly said it was halting the operation of one of the last two operating turbines due to the "technical condition of the engine", cutting daily gas deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline to 33m cubic metres a day – about 20% of the pipeline's capacity."
More games, tactical games....
Actually, I think the quick downturn in gas supply is a sign of Russian weakness.
The current low-supply-high-price situation is in itd favour. A slow squeeze would be the optimal strategy.
But the war is going sideways for Putin and he is running out of time. Now he is rushing, which will backfire and dry up important Russian income. Unlike the situation with oil, Russia has no other clients for this gas because of the lack of infrastructure.
Quote from: Que on July 25, 2022, 01:14:37 PMActually, I think the quick downturn in gas supply is a sign of Russian weakness.
The current low-supply-high-price situation is in itd favour. A slow squeeze would be the optimal strategy.
But the war is going sideways for Putin and he is running out of time. Now he is rushing, which will backfire and dry up important Russian income. Unlike the situation with oil, Russia has no other clients for this gas because of the lack of infrastructure.
This is wishful thinking.
Quote from: Todd on July 25, 2022, 05:16:07 PM
This is wishful thinking.
Which part? The assumptions on Putin's motives are naturally speculative. That this move will dry up gas Russian revenues and that there are no pipelines to sell all that gas in any significant quantities to other buyers (China, India) are facts.
Quote from: Todd on July 25, 2022, 04:07:50 AM
[...] Of course, I would prefer to see Ukrainians no longer die for American imperial ambitions.
Instead, the US will continue on with underperforming sanctions and funneling money and weapons to Ukraine to prolong the war and add to the pointless civilian deaths. Proxy wars are always tough on actual battlefield countries, while great powers an ocean away and small, insignificant northern European countries can talk tough as they bear no burden. Internet warfare is always so easy.
A very US-centric perspective, thinking that the US is the sole determining factor in this.
These are actually the sad results of
Russian imperial dreams we are looking at. The drive between the rift between Ukraine and Russia was Ukraine's desire to get out of subservience to Russia and living under a repressive puppet regime. This all culminated in the 2005 Orange Revolution which ended Russia's hold on Ukrainian politics.
Like many Eastern European countries before, Ukraine aspired to join the EU and NATO as an alternative destination. Now we can rehash the debate whether the Bush administration should have encouraged closer ties to NATO or not, and whether Russia was "provoked". But ultimately it was Ukraine itself that decided on this course and to stick with it, even after the 2015 Russian invasion.
War is the most horrible thing. And I can assure you that the mories of two utterly devastating world wars are still vivid in the collective memories of European nations, including the small, weak and insignificant ones. But the other lesson learned was that peace at any price empowers aggressors and will be the end of freedom and democracy.
Ukrainiane is facing death and destruction, atrocities commited against civilians, human suffering on a massive scale. But it has decided that it will fight for its survival as a free and independent nation, even if its western allies cannot intervene directly.
Would the war be over if the supply of weapons would stop? Undoubtedly. But it is up to the Ukrainians to decide when and how this ends.
Quote from: Que on July 24, 2022, 11:56:32 PM
"Hungary's nationalist prime minister Viktor Orban Saturday called for US-Russian peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, lashing out at the European Union's strategy on the conflict. In a speech in Romania, the 59-year-old ultra-conservative leader also defended his vision of an "unmixed Hungarian race" as he criticised mixing with "non-Europeans." Orban has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, but maintains an ambiguous position on the conflict."
Hoo boy. Unmixed Hungarian race? Not a lot of knowledge of history and/or science there.
Quote from: Que on July 25, 2022, 10:09:51 PMWhich part?
The whole thing.
Quote from: Que on July 25, 2022, 10:45:59 PMThese are actually the sad results of Russian imperial dreams we are looking at.
American imperialism and Russian imperialism are both primary driving forces. Growing Chinese involvement also plays a major role. Ukraine is the latest battlefield in the Great Game, which has merely moved west a bit.
The idea that Ukraine or other Eastern European countries choose to join NATO and therefore NATO expansion is not imperialist is false. NATO is a tool for US imperialism - by design. It is much more palatable to market it as democratic. It is military alliance that binds a few erstwhile great powers and a bevy of small, weak powers to the great hegemon of the age; European countries are mere hangers-on.
Quote from: Que on July 25, 2022, 10:09:51 PMBut the other lesson learned was that peace at any price empowers aggressors and will be the end of freedom and democracy.
This is completely false. History demonstrates this conclusively. For centuries, Ukraine was not a free, democratic country. Likewise, many other countries previously under the yoke of Russia or the USSR were not free and democratic. To use another salient current example, Taiwan has been free and democratic for only a few decades. Prior to recent democratic reforms and revolutions and such forth, the internal politics in these or similar countries and/or imperial control of these or similar countries did not prevent the development of democracy in Western countries. Wars, invasions, revolutions, counterrevolutions, etc have occurred all over the world, all the time, and yet democratic countries continued on down their paths. Sometimes – often, actually – democratic countries have themselves been aggressors.
The idea or mere implication that the Russo-Ukrainian War represents a threat to freedom and democracy as a whole is preposterous on its face. (The same applies to the fear mongering taking place regarding potential Chinese actions against Taiwan.) At most, Russia will gain some territory in Ukraine and Ukraine will remain "neutral". Russia will not conquer all of its neighbors. European countries with long democratic histories will not revert to monarchies. It is also very unlikely that these same countries will fall prey to vicious, domestic dictators bent on war and oppression, but perhaps some will. That is a European problem.
WWII, which ultimately informs your assertion, is more or less the worst possible world historical event to evoke, directly or indirectly. Its lessons do not really apply to the current world. Democracy will not die as a result of this war, even if Russia "wins". It just won't. It is really quite clear that shoring up democratic institutions domestically is far preferable and more effective at ensuring democracy persists than pursuing foreign adventures to preserve democracy elsewhere. There really is no reason to go abroad in search of monsters to destroy.
Quote from: Wanderer on July 25, 2022, 09:20:42 AM
The Greek Parliament (Boule) is not in full session during the summer and by constitutional stipulation it cannot ratify international agreements when not in full session. I expect ratification of Finland's and Sweden's NATO accession protocols to be among the first things to be done when parliamentary full session begins again in October.
Thanks for this info! At this point it is completely understandable if the process hasn't started. October? That's a long summer Parliament not in session! :o
Quote from: LKB on July 25, 2022, 09:48:48 AM
Unfortunately, l suspect Türkeya will stall matters for months yet. No true NATO ally would ever meet with Putin in the present circumstances, and Erdoğan will undoubtedly want to squeeze as much as possible out of both candidate nations while he appeases Putin at the same time.
It is what it is. The less I think about it the less depressing it is.
I think the complexities of established Greek bureaucracy are very famous generally. Maybe the parliamentarians have to rest for a long time, because of the strain they are enduring.
Further Orban-related developments: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-27/hungary-prime-minister-viktor-orban-advisor-resigns-over-speech/101275582
Quote from: Todd on July 26, 2022, 06:22:04 AM
(The same applies to the fear mongering taking place regarding potential Chinese actions against Taiwan.)
I would like to see a strong counter argument here. So far, I'm not seeing it. I'd like to see Russia lose and I detest China. I was sad to see HK go, knowing some of those HK students personally. I've met some Taiwanese personally too though it doesn't take knowing them personally to feel for their plight. But is it worth WWIII? Or even a proxy war? It's interesting, because I saw such emotional arguments for why Russia needed to be stopped I felt quite swept away. But I can see Todd's argument. It's hard to stomach China just walking into Taiwan and wiping its feet all over it; it's hard to stomach its stomping its feet over Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, and all the shipping lanes, etc. there might indeed be a practical case for the U.S. and its Allies. And should there be any moral case for not doing business with countries that go over certain lines, I mean leaving aside possible fingers pointing back in this direction and cries of Hypocrisy, etc.?
Stopping powerful aggressors is a matter of self preservation IMO. Peace at any price will lead to consessions that will only make them more powerful. Their acts of agression (wars) can cause major disruptions of the global economy and of international relations.
The case of the Ukraine war is a clear example. It has caused a security crisis in Europe and will cause a global food and energy crisis and a global economic recession. It has led to a breakdown of international relations. How are we going to fight climate change, pandemics and food shortages without globally consorted efforts? Or have international measures against the proliferation of nuclear weapons?
Chinese aggression in the Info-Pacific region will (and is) not be limited to Taiwan. It will have major implications for the region and the world.
Quote from: Que on July 27, 2022, 04:01:23 AM
Stopping powerful aggressors is a matter of self preservation IMO. Peace at any price will lead to consessions that will only make them more powerful. Their acts of agression (wars) can cause major disruptions of the global economy and of international relations.
The case of the Ukraine war is a clear example. It has caused a security crisis in Europe and will cause a global food and energy crisis and a global economic recession. It has led to a breakdown of international relations. How are we going to fight climate change, pandemics and food shortages without globally consorted efforts? Or have international measures against the proliferation of nuclear weapons?
Chinese aggression in the Info-Pacific region will (and is) not be limited to Taiwan. It will have major implications for the region and the world.
I think China is a clearer case, though I don't know if Taiwan alone is. What will everyone really do, when push comes to shove? A lot of the game seems already lost as Taiwan isn't recognized as a country by anyone. It's such a perilous existence. I do know some people teaching there and I can't imagine waking up every day not knowing what will come. But maybe I'm not much better off here in Japan.
I'm not sure how clear the case of Russia is. I know there are some, like Glenn Greenwald, who are going to argue that the U.S. provoked the whole thing. "Peace at any price" sounds overdramatic. The U.S. isn't giving up anything that I can see. I'd like to see Russia lose and, especially, Putin gone but that's rather besides the point. If the cost is not too great then one can hope for a positive result in the Ukraine. Perhaps Putin will be gone as well. I don't know if a weakened Russia is necessarily a good thing. I suppose it depends who or what comes next.
Quote from: Que on July 27, 2022, 04:01:23 AMStopping powerful aggressors is a matter of self preservation IMO.
This is patently false. For instance, US security has not been negatively impacted by the Russo-Ukrainian War at all.
Quote from: Que on July 27, 2022, 04:01:23 AMPeace at any price will lead to consessions that will only make them more powerful.
This is not only patently false, in the case of Russia specifically, it requires Doublethink. One must simultaneously believe that Russia will become more powerful and that it is weakening, suffering from demographic decline and resource dependence which makes it vulnerable. The power of pro-war propaganda is on full display in this war. It works.
Quote from: Que on July 27, 2022, 04:01:23 AMTheir acts of agression (wars) can cause major disruptions of the global economy and of international relations.
This also occurs when democratic powers act as aggressors. Do you suggest stopping democratic aggressors? If so, how?
Quote from: Que on July 27, 2022, 04:01:23 AMThe case of the Ukraine war is a clear example. It has caused a security crisis in Europe and will cause a global food and energy crisis and a global economic recession. It has led to a breakdown of international relations. How are we going to fight climate change, pandemics and food shortages without globally consorted efforts? Or have international measures against the proliferation of nuclear weapons?
The western response to the war is at least as responsible for the current state of international affairs.
Quote from: Que on July 27, 2022, 04:01:23 AMChinese aggression in the Info-Pacific region will (and is) not be limited to Taiwan.
What facts are this assertion based on? Modern Chinese history has seen China the victim of aggression more than the aggressor. The existence of Taiwan is an artifact of aggression against China.
Quote from: milk on July 27, 2022, 04:26:44 AMI know there are some, like Glenn Greenwald, who are going to argue that the U.S. provoked the whole thing.
George Kennan warned of dire consequences of NATO expansion back in the 90s.
Quote from: Todd on July 27, 2022, 04:30:07 AM
This is patently false. For instance, US security has not been negatively impacted by the Russo-Ukrainian War at all.
You are definitely the kind of person who can only see the link in the chain that is immediately next to you.
Schizophrenic reporting on the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia:
Sanctions not working as expected:
1.) Russian economy doing better than expected despite sanctions, says IMF (https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-doing-better-than-expected-despite-sanctions-says-imf/)
2.) Western sanctions sting but don't cripple Russia's economy: While sales of oil and gas are down, revenues are up — raising questions on the effectiveness of EU sanctions. (https://www.politico.eu/article/western-sanction-stinging-hammering-russian-economy-data-show/)
Sanctions are cataclysmic:
1.) Russia faces 'economic oblivion' as Western sanctions continue to eat away at GDP, new study says (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economic-oblivion-western-sanctions-gdp-ukraine-war-oil-crude-2022-7)
2.) Actually, the Russian Economy Is Imploding (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/)
The big story doesn't get covered: Sanctions not having the promised massive deleterious effect demonstrates US weakness and decline and exposes the limits of the so-called "rules-based order".
Quote from: Todd on July 27, 2022, 04:30:07 AM
What facts are this assertion based on? Modern Chinese history has seen China the victim of aggression more than the aggressor. The existence of Taiwan is an artifact of aggression against China.
So you didn't get the memo on longtime wider Chinese aggression in the Indo-pacific. Or on border "conflicts" (land grabbing) with India.
https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-military-aggression-in-the-indo-pacific-region/index.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932022_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes
Quote from: Que on July 27, 2022, 04:56:25 AM
So you didn't get the memo on longtime wider Chinese aggression in the Indo-pacific. Or on border "conflicts" (land grabbing) with India.
https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-military-aggression-in-the-indo-pacific-region/index.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932022_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes
Yes, I am very well aware of Chinese actions. I also distinguish between aggression - war, using your definition provided earlier - and standard saber rattling (which the US does all the time), incremental military expansion, squeezing regional powers (something the US has done since before 1898!), and building military bases overseas (a standard behavior of great powers). The only thing that has even a whiff of Chinese aggression are the border skirmishes with India, though reports in international press outlets (eg, the BBC) were not quite so conclusive as the US State Department in claiming that all the incidents were caused or initiated by China. It is almost as though there is more to it.
I also do like the bold and, well, questionable claim made by full-throated Trumpist Mike Pompeo that "[t]he U.S. Champions a Free and Open Indo-Pacific[.]" It is nice to see people outside the US adopt Bush and Trump era slogans, pronouncements, and policies when it suits.
I also give kudos to the State Department for using the phrase "provoking tension" with respect to India. The US State Department would of course vociferously deny that NATO expansion likewise provokes tension. That Doublethink thing again.
Quote from: Todd on July 27, 2022, 04:30:07 AM
The existence of Taiwan is an artifact of aggression against China.
I think you have a lot of good arguments but I don't know what this is an argument
for. The people of Taiwan seem to not want to be a part of communist China. That may not be worth fighting WWIII over but no historical fact in this case gives communist China any moral right. I doubt it gives them any other kind of right either.
Quote from: Todd on July 27, 2022, 05:15:36 AM
Yes, I am very well aware of Chinese actions. I also distinguish between aggression - war, using your definition provided earlier - and standard saber rattling (which the US does all the time), incremental military expansion, squeezing regional powers (something the US has done since before 1898!), and building military bases overseas (a standard behavior of great powers). The only thing that has even a whiff of Chinese aggression are the border skirmishes with India, though reports in international press outlets (eg, the BBC) were not quite so conclusive as the US State Department in claiming that all the incidents were caused or initiated by China. It is almost as though there is more to it.
I also do like the bold and, well, questionable claim made by full-throated Trumpist Mike Pompeo that "[t]he U.S. Champions a Free and Open Indo-Pacific[.]" It is nice to see people outside the US adopt Bush and Trump era slogans, pronouncements, and policies when it suits.
I also give kudos to the State Department for using the phrase "provoking tension" with respect to India. The US State Department would of course vociferously deny that NATO expansion likewise provokes tension. That Doublethink thing again.
I think the Vietnamese, Japanese, Philippine people, and others, would claim some more whiffs of aggression. But not much more than whiffs, it's true. I also don't see what difference history makes in terms of what China is doing right now. You may be right that it isn't much different or worse than what the U.S. has always done. On the other hand, "you also" isn't a logical argument. And even if it were, it only works against the U.S. I think there's a general point here that makes sense: is a war with China inevitable, necessary, reasonable, etc.? I really hate the Chinese government, but I don't want to let hate cloud my judgement.
Before Abe was was assassinated, I think it was before, an old Japanese Prime Minister named Hatoyama gave a speech where he said that more effort was needed to forge ties of peace with China. I thought it was interesting partly because his was a completely lone voice; we haven't heard anyone voice such an opinion in Japan in a long time. I think Abe was one of the most cynical politicians Japan has ever had and I think that's one of the reasons he was so successful (and an ironic reason why he was finally targeted by a disaffected nut-job with a huge grudge). Abe turned Chinese "aggression" into fervor for constitutional revision and a bigger military budget. Anyway, no one cares what Hatoyama thinks; he was the PM for one of the only opposition parties (opposition to the LDP) to ever win and lead Japan but he was extremely arrogant and inept (a billionaire and heir to the Bridgestone fortune). Anyway, it does sort of strike one how few and vilified doves are these days. I'm pretty anti-China but I think it probably helps to have a few doves around and it helps to have some relationships with China.
Quote from: Madiel on July 27, 2022, 04:32:08 AM
You are definitely the kind of person who can only see the link in the chain that is immediately next to you.
Attack the argument, not the person.
I am attacking the argument, to the extent that the argument over and over is "America is not affected by this".
It's not really much of an argument. It's an assertion. An assertion that flies in the face of the ways that the USA has, FOR DECADES, acted on the basis that its interests are impacted by events elsewhere in the world. The main reason I don't give more elaborate space to the argument is that it is trite and obvious that it's wrong. A fairly basic understanding of how global supply chains work will tell you that it's wrong.
Telling me not to attack the person when the argument is fundamentally characteristic of the one person who keeps making that "argument" over and over and over is... well it's a bit silly.
What argument do you want me to attack exactly, beyond addressing how Todd seems personally incapable of understanding that the effects of destroying the Ukrainian economy are not limited to when he wants to buy something directly from Ukraine?
The deal that has been brokered on the grain supply is as good an example of any on how the effect of this conflict extends far and wide. That deal isn't focused on the benefit to Ukraine, it exists because not having access to Ukrainian grain threatens to destabilise other countries. Global food security is put at huge risk by a conflict in that part of the world because Ukraine and Russia are MAJOR agricultural exporters. Keep that process up and eventually you'll disrupt a resource somewhere that Todd actually cares about: the last link in the chain.
Quote from: milk on July 27, 2022, 06:52:39 AMI think you have a lot of good arguments but I don't know what this is an argument for...
I think there's a general point here that makes sense: is a war with China inevitable, necessary, reasonable, etc.?
I argue for the same thing I have for years: A non-interventionist US foreign policy. War with China is not inevitable. It should be avoided at
all costs. A full-scale war with China - or Russia, for that matter - involves consequences graver than experienced before. Nothing is worth it. Certainly not Taiwanese democracy. Not even TSMC is worth it. Were China to directly attack the US, then the US should murder all Chinese people in China in retaliation, or at least make the Chinese government think that is what would happen. In case any people blanch at such a statement, that is precisely what nuclear deterrence promises.
It is essential to expose the intrinsic dishonesty and hollowness of the proclamations made about Russian perfidy and Chinese duplicity, or whatever other moral judgments may be assigned to these two countries. Russia and China behave as all great powers have in the past - not just the US, but also the Brits, the Dutch, the Spanish, etc. Exploitation, warfare, coercion, etc are standard. In the post-war era, many people have become accustomed to nice ideas and "values" protected by the "international community" or operating within the "rules-based order". That is, many people, at least in The West and certain places in Asia, complacently accept US hegemony. That is fading, has been for decades, and has started to accelerate this century. The expanded deployment of military forces to ever more countries (eg, Djibouti) and the increasing reliance on economic warfare in the wake of 9/11 are signs of decline, not signs of ascent. As Russia continues to decline in relative significance, and both China and India continue to rise, the US specifically needs to reassess true strategic goals with the primary focus being the avoidance of great power war. Western conceptions and ideals will remain, but they will decline in importance. Western values are not universal and The West must adapt. It will be very difficult for the US to adapt to this, but it must adapt. Part of that is recognizing the shifts in global power, the rise of multipolarity, and the limits of US power. Hopefully changes in policies and international institutions can be accomplished without great power war, but the US is extremely warlike, always has been, and may very well resort to what it has relied on so extensively in the past. That would be a pity. But if my streets are not being bombed, I should be able to adapt to other negative outcomes, if such things occur in my lifetime.
Quote from: Madiel on July 27, 2022, 06:56:26 AM
I am attacking the argument, to the extent that the argument over and over is "America is not affected by this".
It's not really much of an argument. It's an assertion. An assertion that flies in the face of the ways that the USA has, FOR DECADES, acted on the basis that its interests are impacted by events elsewhere in the world. The main reason I don't give more elaborate space to the argument is that it is trite and obvious that it's wrong. A fairly basic understanding of how global supply chains work will tell you that it's wrong.
Telling me not to attack the person when the argument is fundamentally characteristic of the one person who keeps making that "argument" over and over and over is... well it's a bit silly.
What argument do you want me to attack exactly, beyond addressing how Todd seems personally incapable of understanding that the effects of destroying the Ukrainian economy are not limited to when he wants to buy something directly from Ukraine?
Ugh.
OK fine. People who opposed the Vietnam War didn't understand the true threat of communism. People who opposed interventions in Indonesia, East Pakistan, Chile and Laos, didn't understand that America is affected wherever communism succeeds. These intervention policies were carried out by Democrats and Republicans alike. It's only a fringe minority that opposed them.
Resolved!
I don't know where I land on this right now. I'd like to see Putin get creamed and I think China is a malevolent force in the world but I think the arguments here against Todd sound very neocon-ish.
If I were the moderator I'd cut ANY personal comments BTW. That's why these threads spin out of control and get frozen. It's nice to have a forum where we can disagree. Looking at North America and Europe from afar, it seems like people can't discuss anything anymore.
Quote from: milk on July 27, 2022, 07:24:38 AMI think the arguments here against Todd sound very neocon-ish.
Neoconservatism and liberal interventionism are practically the same. They are both interventionist ideologies. Some specific arguments may differ, but both want blood.
Quote from: Todd on July 27, 2022, 07:22:26 AM
I argue for the same thing I have for years: A non-interventionist US foreign policy. War with China is not inevitable. It should be avoided at all costs. A full-scale war with China - or Russia, for that matter - involves consequences graver than experienced before. Nothing is worth it. Certainly not Taiwanese democracy. Not even TSMC is worth it. Were China to directly attack the US, then the US should murder all Chinese people in China in retaliation, or at least make the Chinese government think that is what would happen. In case any people blanch at such a statement, that is precisely what nuclear deterrence promises.
It is essential to expose the intrinsic dishonesty and hollowness of the proclamations made about Russian perfidy and Chinese duplicity, or whatever other moral judgments may be assigned to these two countries. Russia and China behave as all great powers have in the past - not just the US, but also the Brits, the Dutch, the Spanish, etc. Exploitation, warfare, coercion, etc are standard. In the post-war era, many people have become accustomed to nice ideas and "values" protected by the "international community" or operating within the "rules-based order". That is, many people, at least in The West and certain places in Asia, complacently accept US hegemony. That is fading, has been for decades, and has started to accelerate this century. The expanded deployment of military forces to ever more countries (eg, Djibouti) and the increasing reliance on economic warfare in the wake of 9/11 are signs of decline, not signs of ascent. As Russia continues to decline in relative significance, and both China and India continue to rise, the US specifically needs to reassess true strategic goals with the primary focus being the avoidance of great power war. Western conceptions and ideals will remain, but they will decline in importance. Western values are not universal and The West must adapt. It will be very difficult for the US to adapt to this, but it must adapt. Part of that is recognizing the shifts in global power, the rise of multipolarity, and the limits of US power. Hopefully changes in policies and international institutions can be accomplished without great power war, but the US is extremely warlike, always has been, and may very resort to what it has relied on so extensively in the past. That would be a pity. But if my streets are not being bombed, I should be able to adapt to other negative outcomes, if such things occur in my lifetime.
I think it's worth taking this seriously and I don't know why people here seem to just sort of sidestep this. What I worry about is if it's a little more complicated in some areas. I don't know enough about how things work out there in the world. I know that we all have to be able to be free to move stuff around, to trade, to make agreements with each other and I wonder if there's anything that gets in the way when you have China making all sorts of claims over the oceans of every country here in Asia. You have some of this covered in your comments, i.e. the U.S. has always exerted it's influence, sometimes in a bloody way, over areas from which it profits. In a lot of ways, China is a sloppy negative, instead of sending rock n' roll and coke (they really have no knack for invention), they build sh*t that countries like Sri Lanka and Laos can't afford and then bankrupt them. Well, whatever. I guess your idea is, really, what is it the U.S.'s business? Again, the Glenn Greenwald's of the world are going to argue that neocons have always been Dems AND Repubs. Now the CIA has also gone woke and flies a rainbow flag.
Quote from: milk on July 27, 2022, 07:39:01 AMI guess your idea is, really, what is it the U.S.'s business?
Sometimes, the actions of the Chinese or the Russians are of great consequence to the US. Often, they are not. The fate of Ukraine is not relevant from an economic or strategic standpoint, for instance. Taiwan is currently more important from an economic standpoint, but Congress and interested companies are working feverishly to produce a new corporate welfare package to address this. Sticking just to your two other cited countries, Sri Lanka is an Indian problem, but Laos could be useful to the US, though it may be more practical to leverage relationships with Myanmar and Vietnam. The US will have to pay lip service to human rights and democracy and such forth, but maintaining relationships with unsavory sorts, from a US perspective, is just reality.
Quote from: milk on July 27, 2022, 07:39:01 AMAgain, the Glenn Greenwald's of the world are going to argue that neocons have always been Dems AND Repubs.
This is embodied in the person of Robert Kagan.
The post-war order is in the early phases of unwinding. Hopefully, it takes a while and does not result in war. Unbridled globalization is now out of favor even among economic elites. Mercantilism has returned. (No one mourns the permanent hobbling of the WTO, for instance.) Certain physical aspects of manufacturing, trade, and shipping will continue - hence the urgency and great strategic importance of control of the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca - but it is dangerous to suppose that the US will enjoy the type of unfettered control of the seas and trade like it did in the past. Adaptation and concession are preferable to full-scale war.
Also, do not think that the Chinese cannot build leading edge goods. They make the best surveillance systems in the world, for instance.
Quote from: Todd on July 24, 2022, 05:16:00 AM
Russia has been a great power for centuries. It is not a game so much as a successful tactic to demonstrate and exercise its power. An agreement with a toothless international organization that was brokered by a subsidiary NATO member is no substitute for an agreement with the one power that actually matters to the Russians.
A few pages ago you made (correctly) the case for Turkey being a key NATO member. Now you suddenly demoted them to subsidiary status. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on July 27, 2022, 09:27:41 AM
A few pages ago you made (correctly) the case for Turkey being a key NATO member. Now you suddenly demoted them to subsidiary status. ;D
The US is the primary NATO member. All others are subsidiary. The distinction is simple. If Turkey leaves NATO, NATO could survive. If the US leaves, it could not.
Quote from: Madiel on July 26, 2022, 05:18:55 AM
Hoo boy. Unmixed Hungarian race? Not a lot of knowledge of history and/or science there.
Of course there is no such thing as a Hungarian
race --- but I bet he will blame it on the translation. This has been the tactic of the Hungarian nationalists within Romania for decades. Whenever they say or print something outrageously chauvinistic and revisionist they blame it on the Romanian translation which distorted the original meaning. ;D
Quote from: Todd on July 27, 2022, 09:34:20 AM
The US is the primary NATO member. All others are subsidiary. The distinction is simple. If Turkey leaves NATO, NATO could survive. If the US leaves, it could not.
Neither Turkey nor US will leave NATO and Turkey is a key member of NATO.
Quote from: Florestan on July 27, 2022, 09:37:53 AM
Neither Turkey nor US will leave NATO and Turkey is a key member of NATO.
I did not write that either country will leave NATO. I also did not write that Turkey is not a key member of NATO, only that it is a subsidiary member. It is more strategicallty important than many NATO countries, such as Romania.
Quote from: Todd on July 27, 2022, 09:39:46 AM
I did not write that either country will leave NATO. I also did not write that Turkey is not a key member of NATO, only that it is a subsidiary member. It is more strategicallty important than many NATO countries, such as Romania.
Well, Romania has huge, as yet unexploited, reserves of gas, both in the Black Sea and in continental underground. Credible calculations have been made according to which, if these reserves were duly exploited, they could ensure both Romania's complete independence from Russian gas (actually, we are already among the European countries which are the least dependent on Russian gas) and a significant surplus that could be provided to other countries needing it. Problem is, we lack the necessary technology to do it ourselves and the incessant political strife and factionalism prevented any coherent and fair legislation from being implemented in order to facilitate the access of foreign companies.
Quote from: Florestan on July 27, 2022, 10:16:20 AM
Well, Romania has huge, as yet unexploited, reserves of gas, both in the Black Sea and in continental underground. Credible calculations have been made according to which, if these reserves were duly exploited, they could ensure both Romania's complete independence from Russian gas (actually, we are already among the European countries which are the least dependent on Russian gas) and a significant surplus that could be provided to other countries needing it. Problem is, we lack the necessary technology to do it ourselves and the incessant political strife and factionalism prevented any coherent and fair legislation from being implemented in order to facilitate the access of foreign companies.
That could be helpful for European markets, but it means nothing for the US, which is of course the largest producer of natural gas. If anything, that means Romania could be seen as an economic foe of the US. Make no mistake, one of the benefits of the Russo-Ukrainian War is that it has been a boon to multiple US industries, including the gas industry. Some cynical types even intimate that the economic benefits enjoyed by the US informs policy, but that could never, ever happen; the US would never pursue pro-war policies for economic gain.
US becomes world's largest LNG exporter amid Ukraine war-driven demand, rising gas and power prices (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/us-becomes-worlds-largest-lng-exporter-amid-ukraine-war-driven-demand-ris/628106/)
Quote from: Todd on July 27, 2022, 10:26:40 AM
That could be helpful for European markets, but it means nothing for the US, which is of course the largest producer of natural gas. If anything, that means Romania could be seen as an economic foe of the US.
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/65ODCwM00NVmEyLsX3/200w.webp?cid=ecf05e479w5g68wd6zt40xgjbixiyub4zpkmu7jsd3b1o008&rid=200w.webp&ct=g)
Quote from: Florestan on July 27, 2022, 10:42:31 AM
(https://media3.giphy.com/media/65ODCwM00NVmEyLsX3/200w.webp?cid=ecf05e479w5g68wd6zt40xgjbixiyub4zpkmu7jsd3b1o008&rid=200w.webp&ct=g)
GIF or no GIF, the US federal government is keen on exploiting US energy production for profit. I would not expect the US to take any direct action against Romania, but rather it could block or more likely stall the sale of certain technologies to Romanian companies, and US companies may require fairly onerous terms from Romanian partners. When billions in profit are on the line, the US and US domiciled corporations will play rough.
Quote from: milk on July 27, 2022, 07:24:38 AM
Ugh.
OK fine. People who opposed the Vietnam War didn't understand the true threat of communism. People who opposed interventions in Indonesia, East Pakistan, Chile and Laos, didn't understand that America is affected wherever communism succeeds. These intervention policies were carried out by Democrats and Republicans alike. It's only a fringe minority that opposed them.
Resolved!
I don't know where I land on this right now. I'd like to see Putin get creamed and I think China is a malevolent force in the world but I think the arguments here against Todd sound very neocon-ish.
If I were the moderator I'd cut ANY personal comments BTW. That's why these threads spin out of control and get frozen. It's nice to have a forum where we can disagree. Looking at North America and Europe from afar, it seems like people can't discuss anything anymore.
Seriously? I talk about global supply chains and you talk about the spread of ideas?
Ugh indeed.
Maybe your petrol/gasoline prices didn't spike when this war started? Despite my petrol not coming from Ukraine or Russia, mine did.
Or maybe you vaguely noticed that a virus outbreak in China affected manufacturing the world over?
I could have sworn I'd heard about inflationary spikes all over the world, but nope, apparently it's stupid to think that the USA is economically linked to events elsewhere.
I said nothing, by the way, about the appropriate American response, despite you talking about neocons. What I challenged was the claim that American security simply wasn't affected.
Thank you North Macedonia! $:)
🇲🇰
By sheer coincidence, ABC Australia has just published this helpful primer on global food security and its implications. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-28/russia-ukraine-food-shortage-fertiliser-climate-change/100575126
Quote from: milk on July 27, 2022, 07:24:38 AM
If I were the moderator I'd cut ANY personal comments BTW.
In practice this gets enforced with the most narrow and literal definition of insult. Where someone going years on end with trollish behavior and continually asked by many members to change their behavior is fine for not crossing the bold line into actual insult, but someone finally getting frustrated and calling them a troll is reprimanded for insult. Its part of what made me leave that other place for good.
Personally I'm far, far more offended and insulted an take personally someone knowingly posting with, say, dripping sarcasm and snide asides or deliberately frustrating non-replies when they've been repeatedly asked to stop than I am by being called an idiot in the heat of one exchange.
Arguments don't make posts. People make posts.
Quote from: SimonNZ on July 27, 2022, 02:30:29 PM
In practice this gets enforced with the most narrow and literal definition of insult. Where someone going years on end with trollish behavior and continually asked by many members to change their behavior is fine for not crossing the bold line into actual insult, but someone finally getting frustrated and calling them a troll is reprimanded for insult. Its part of what made me leave that other place for good.
Personally I'm far, far more offended and insulted an take personally someone knowingly posting with, say, dripping sarcasm and snide asides or deliberately frustrating non-replies when they've been repeatedly asked to stop than I am by being called an idiot in the heat of one exchange.
Actually, I'm not really offended by anyone. It's just that if there has to be a moderator and they feel there has to be a point when things have to be shut down...
But I don't really mind either way.
Quote from: Todd on July 25, 2022, 05:16:07 PM
This is wishful thinking.
Maybe, maybe not...
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193)
Quote from: krummholz on July 28, 2022, 04:15:47 AM
Maybe, maybe not...
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193)
Interesting.
Quote from: Madiel on July 27, 2022, 01:00:14 PM
Seriously? I talk about global supply chains and you talk about the spread of ideas?
Ugh indeed.
Maybe your petrol/gasoline prices didn't spike when this war started? Despite my petrol not coming from Ukraine or Russia, mine did.
Or maybe you vaguely noticed that a virus outbreak in China affected manufacturing the world over?
I could have sworn I'd heard about inflationary spikes all over the world, but nope, apparently it's stupid to think that the USA is economically linked to events elsewhere.
I said nothing, by the way, about the appropriate American response, despite you talking about neocons. What I challenged was the claim that American security simply wasn't affected.
I see. So you're saying that Todd believes the U.S. is completely unaffected by events in the world. He thinks the U.S. isn't affected if Russia goes to war with the Ukraine (or even if there's a global pandemic). You're saying you understand global supply chains whereas Todd doesn't seem to understand that they even exist or matter, that Todd is arguing that there's no effect on the U.S. when other major powers act in what we might see as belligerent ways. You're saying that Todd doesn't see the U.S. as impacted by world events in any important ways and that his "non-interventionist" arguments are so obviously wrong that a detailed rebuttal is just redundant. His views are patently absurd. In your view, the argument, if one can even call it that, that Todd is making, is that the U.S. doesn't benefit by funding a proxy war to counter Russia's aggression. You're saying that this is just silly because it's obvious to anyone with eyes in their head that Russia's move is a threat to the world and the U.S. clearly has reasons to fund the war. Maybe you're also suggesting that it's absurd to argue that fighting over Taiwan is a bad idea?
Your claim here is that Todd simply doesn't have a serious argument and doesn't understand the way the world works.
I hope I've represented what you're saying correctly.
Quote from: Madiel on July 27, 2022, 01:27:16 AM
Further Orban-related developments: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-27/hungary-prime-minister-viktor-orban-advisor-resigns-over-speech/101275582
""We are willing to mix with one another, but we do not want to become peoples of mixed race," Mr Orbán told the crowd, adding that mixing between Europeans was acceptable."
Jesus wept.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on July 28, 2022, 07:53:35 AM
""We are willing to mix with one another, but we do not want to become peoples of mixed race," Mr Orbán told the crowd, adding that mixing between Europeans was acceptable."
Jesus wept.
Proof that political Neanderthals are
not exclusive to the UK or US.
Quote from: milk on July 28, 2022, 06:12:12 AM
I see. So you're saying that Todd believes the U.S. is completely unaffected by events in the world. He thinks the U.S. isn't affected if Russia goes to war with the Ukraine (or even if there's a global pandemic). You're saying you understand global supply chains whereas Todd doesn't seem to understand that they even exist or matter, that Todd is arguing that there's no effect on the U.S. when other major powers act in what we might see as belligerent ways. You're saying that Todd doesn't see the U.S. as impacted by world events in any important ways and that his "non-interventionist" arguments are so obviously wrong that a detailed rebuttal is just redundant. His views are patently absurd. In your view, the argument, if one can even call it that, that Todd is making, is that the U.S. doesn't benefit by funding a proxy war to counter Russia's aggression. You're saying that this is just silly because it's obvious to anyone with eyes in their head that Russia's move is a threat to the world and the U.S. clearly has reasons to fund the war. Maybe you're also suggesting that it's absurd to argue that fighting over Taiwan is a bad idea?
Your claim here is that Todd simply doesn't have a serious argument and doesn't understand the way the world works.
I hope I've represented what you're saying correctly.
Mostly. Again, I didn't say what the correct American response was, but the notion that America should be simply DISINTERESTED strikes me as absurd.
I make no comment on the Taiwan issue, because I don't know enough about the strategic and economic importance of Taiwan. Many of the concerns about China that I'm aware of relate to the wider region rather than Taiwan specifically.
This is not to say that I think the only relevant question is "does this place have importance for the wider world". But that is Todd's attitude: does this place have any importance for the USA. And by Todd's own approach, claiming that Ukraine is of no importance is a short-sighted claim that can only be made if you fail to look more than one step away. It's the equivalent of looking at the contents of your local supermarket without giving any thought to how the contents actually arrive there.
Quote from: krummholz on July 28, 2022, 04:15:47 AM
Maybe, maybe not...
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193)
I already linked four similarly themed articles previously: https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,31510.msg1461520.html#msg1461520
As with any politicized topic, one can find articles and analyses to suit one's preferences.
Quote from: milk on July 28, 2022, 06:12:12 AMYour claim here is that Todd simply doesn't have a serious argument and doesn't understand the way the world works.
This is an excellent forum to learn how the world works from recognized leaders in economics and politics.
Quote from: Todd on July 28, 2022, 01:53:08 PM
This is an excellent forum to learn how the world works from recognized leaders in economics and politics.
And this is hilarious. What are your qualifications for making your own assertions about how the world works?
Close the thread then. Because by your own sarcasm there is no point in continuing to pit your own lack of expertise against everyone else's lack of expertise.
Or you COULD understand that people bring what they've learned here. And that some of us bother to digest it more than is involved in posting links. Why, even YOU sometimes use your own words, non-expert that you are.
You don't get to make a comment about the lack of knowledge around here without looking in a mirror as you make it.
The unexamined life, and all that.
Ukraine could be turning the tide of war again as Russian advances stall
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on July 28, 2022, 06:02:34 PM
The unexamined life, and all that.
I don't know. The more off-handedly dismissive people are, the more curious I am. I don't know if I agree with Todd but it's absurd to snicker and say his POV is the result of a lack of examination. Maybe I need to get my crackerjack box glasses. I'm reading his posts and they come with links to current articles, references to various well-known figures and schools of thought, and pretty fleshed-out arguments. It might be a minority view but not exactly fringe. Again, I'm not saying I agree. I'm just open-minded. I just don't get the snickering. I do see that Todd has built up a healthy amount of ill-will. I've been annoyed by him on occasion. I guess I just don't care AND it never hurts to re-examine and test one's beliefs. Sometimes I get the feeling people are afraid of that.
Quote from: milk on July 28, 2022, 07:46:01 PM
I don't know. The more off-handedly dismissive people are, the more curious I am. I don't know if I agree with Todd but it's absurd to snicker and say his POV is the result of a lack of examination. Maybe I need to get my crackerjack box glasses. I'm reading his posts and they come with links to current articles, references to various well-known figures and schools of thought, and pretty fleshed-out arguments. It might be a minority view but not exactly fringe. Again, I'm not saying I agree. I'm just open-minded. I just don't get the snickering. I do see that Todd has built up a healthy amount of ill-will. I've been annoyed by him on occasion. I guess I just don't care AND it never hurts to re-examine and test one's beliefs. Sometimes I get the feeling people are afraid of that.
Do any of the links say the war in Ukraine is irrelevant?
Because from your responses to me, I'm genuinely not convinced that you understand the difference between "the US should not intervene" and "the US has no interest in events". They are 2 fundamentally different arguments.
Quote from: Todd on July 28, 2022, 01:51:52 PM
I already linked four similarly themed articles previously: https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php/topic,31510.msg1461520.html#msg1461520
As with any politicized topic, one can find articles and analyses to suit one's preferences.
Although like most here, I'd like to see Putin's forces crushed and the man himself removed from power (and more), I didn't post that link to suit my own preferences, but to counter your statement that the implication that the Kremlin's position, economically and strategically, is weak is mere wishful thinking. While it may or may not prove to be correct in the end, the fact that that conclusion was reached by at least one carefully documented study shows that it is not mere wishful thinking.
Quote from: Madiel on July 28, 2022, 07:56:53 PM
Do any of the links say the war in Ukraine is irrelevant?
Because from your responses to me, I'm genuinely not convinced that you understand the difference between "the US should not intervene" and "the US has no interest in events". They are 2 fundamentally different arguments.
I haven't put a lot of thought into your particular responses to Todd. I just thought the "your the kind of person" remark stood out. But carry on. Again, I don't care and I doubt anyone does. I for one am sure the U.S. has some interest in the events in the Ukraine. I'm also very interested in East Asia where I also think there are important interests and I'm glad Biden is on the phone (or someone is I hope). I missed where Todd wrote that the U.S. is unaffected by events in the Ukraine but I haven't been studying this thread. I thought his argument was just that it makes little difference to U.S. interests if Russia gains territory or influence there. I still hope it doesn't, BTW. If you feel motivated, post the bits of Todd that you think are egregiously erroneous, not as a response to any challenge to your knowledge or thought-processes but as a service to a fella who needs things spelled out plainly and repetitively. The doctor has upped my migraine meds and one side effect is possible density of thought. That and constipation.
Quote from: milk on July 28, 2022, 09:29:36 PM
I haven't put a lot of thought into your particular responses to Todd. I just thought the "your the kind of person" remark stood out. But carry on. Again, I don't care and I doubt anyone does. I for one am sure the U.S. has some interest in the events in the Ukraine. I'm also very interested in East Asia where I also think there are important interests and I'm glad Biden is on the phone (or someone is I hope). I missed where Todd wrote that the U.S. is unaffected by events in the Ukraine but I haven't been studying this thread. I thought his argument was just that it makes little difference to U.S. interests if Russia gains territory or influence there. I still hope it doesn't, BTW. If you feel motivated, post the bits of Todd that you think are egregiously erroneous, not as a response to any challenge to your knowledge or thought-processes but as a service to a fella who needs things spelled out plainly and repetitively. The doctor has upped my migraine meds and one side effect is possible density of thought. That and constipation.
So hang on, you chose to spend all this time focusing on my comment, and you simply didn't bother to go back to the post I was responding to?
I mean, you figured out I was talking about Todd, yet you couldn't be arsed to read the sentence that Todd had written stating that the security of the USA was unaffected?
Wow. Thank you for wasting so much of my time. On something that you now say YOU DON'T CARE ABOUT. I shall feel very free to ignore you from now on.
Quote from: Madiel on July 28, 2022, 09:43:07 PM
So hang on, you chose to spend all this time focusing on my comment, and you simply didn't bother to go back to the post I was responding to?
I mean, you figured out I was talking about Todd, yet you couldn't be arsed to read the sentence that Todd had written stating that the security of the USA was unaffected?
Wow. Thank you for wasting so much of my time. On something that you now say YOU DON'T CARE ABOUT. I shall feel very free to ignore you from now on.
I don't know. Me thinking has slowed. I think I've read everything lately. Click click. But I haven't memorized it. I'm not that kind of person. You know, principle of charity. But I do care deeply. Way down deep in me heart. ❤️
Quote from: Madiel on July 28, 2022, 09:43:07 PM
So hang on, you chose to spend all this time focusing on my comment, and you simply didn't bother to go back to the post I was responding to?
I mean, you figured out I was talking about Todd, yet you couldn't be arsed to read the sentence that Todd had written stating that the security of the USA was unaffected?
Wow. Thank you for wasting so much of my time. On something that you now say YOU DON'T CARE ABOUT. I shall feel very free to ignore you from now on.
I thought you said I rehearsed the last bit pretty good anyway. I'm catching up.
Quote from: krummholz on July 28, 2022, 08:07:45 PMWhile it may or may not prove to be correct in the end, the fact that that conclusion was reached by at least one carefully documented study shows that it is not mere wishful thinking.
The linked IMF study is likewise carefully documented, as are the qualified opinions of ratings agencies in the wake of faux sovereign default. The reason I selected the phrase wishful thinking to describe Que's assertions is because they are wishful thinking, in the standard usage of that phrase.
The war has caused Russophobia to at least match the Reagan era, at least online and in the press. Articles and opinions regarding the weakness of Russia abound, and variants of these have been used for decades on and off when they suit, yet Russia keeps on going. The latest casualty figures should set off a new round of prognostications of imminent collapse, or something, but it is doubtful. Russia has not achieved autarky, but it has shown itself to be more resilient than western triumphalists have repeatedly proclaimed, and it seems very unlikely given established facts that Russia will collapse. Policies and approaches to Russia that emphasize that outcome rely on wishful thinking - and they cost Ukrainian lives.
Quote from: milk on July 28, 2022, 09:29:36 PMI thought his argument was just that it makes little difference to U.S. interests if Russia gains territory or influence there.
US national security is not affected by the fate of Ukraine. It does not matter if Ukraine is autonomous or if it is a vassal state of Russia. US physical security is not threatened under either scenario. US economic interests in Ukraine are very limited. The US imported about $2 billion of goods from Ukraine in 2021, and about half of that was iron and steel. There are ready alternatives for imports. US exports were slightly larger. The US federal government can provide emergency relief to the impacted companies if need be, adding the pittance into an infrastructure bill or something. That will not be needed.
Arguments, such as they are, for the significance of Ukraine remain nebulous at best. No one on this forum can explain the actual national security interests for the US in Ukraine. "Ukrainian Democracy" and so-called human rights do not matter in that they have no bearing on real US interests, let alone security. I suppose one could argue that the current state of Ukraine impacts US security by increasing food insecurity around the world, thereby causing political instability elsewhere, which could cause the need for US intervention elsewhere, but that can be obviated by pursuing a political settlement to the war, ceasing hostilities, and allowing Ukrainian food exports to resume, as they would. But this also requires a belief that the US should intervene elsewhere if there is instability.
That of course leaves the physical security of Europe as the main interest the US
may have. If triumphalists are right, and Russia is gravely enfeebled, then there is nothing at all to fear. Russia can't do anything. If Russia is very powerful, conquers Ukraine in the next couple months, then marches on Europe, then the geographic location of Ukraine and the resources contained therein represent the threat. Except they don't. Ukraine is devastated. Whatever the outcome of the war now, Europe can finally get around to building up its own defensive capabilities. The bold words, promises, and proposed budget increases from earlier in the year will not actually materialize, though. Short-term martial spirit will give way to long term complacency.
The US interests typically forwarded are basically fluff. Democracy. Human Rights. The "rules-based order." A just and verdant Europe. Values. Etc. These interests are the window dressing for US imperialism. They sure sound pretty, but not only do they not protect the US or advance US economic interests, they force the unnecessary and fruitless expenditure of American treasure. Hopefully they do not require the expenditure of American blood.
Of course, had the US not provoked tension with Russia by expanding NATO recklessly and relentlessly, the world would not be in the place it is now.
Quote from: Todd on July 29, 2022, 04:21:43 AM
Of course, had the US not provoked tension with Russia by expanding NATO recklessly and relentlessly, the world would not be in the place it is now.
Interesting how you blame the Ukrainian war and crisis entirely on US imperialism but not say a word about Russian imperialism. By listening to you, or to Mearsheimer et Co, an alien from Mars would get the idea that Russia was a peaceful, rule-abiding and benevolent international actor until the warmongering, illegal and malevolent NATO expansion forced them to do nothing else than protect their peaceful, rule-abiding and benevolent way of life,
Quote from: Florestan on July 29, 2022, 04:40:23 AMInteresting how you blame the Ukrainian war and crisis entirely on US imperialism but not say a word about Russian imperialism.
This is factually incorrect.
Todd, you still don't understand the argument about the US intervening elsewhere if there's a chain reaction. My argument was not that it's the job of the US to go around fixing political instability for the sake of it, but that in the case of a chain reaction it will eventually hit somewhere where America DOES have significant interests.
Exactly the kind of interests you're so busy pointing out that you don't have in Ukraine. The kind of interests that, based on your own argument, would justify intervention of some kind.
The question is not simply whether the USA is connected to Ukraine. But whether the USA is connected to a country that is connected to a country that is connected to Ukraine. Given the number of countries that both the USA and Ukraine are connected to, the answer is yes.
Quote from: Florestan on July 29, 2022, 04:40:23 AM
Interesting how you blame the Ukrainian war and crisis entirely on US imperialism but not say a word about Russian imperialism. By listening to you, or to Mearsheimer et Co, an alien from Mars would get the idea that Russia was a peaceful, rule-abiding and benevolent international actor until the warmongering, illegal and malevolent NATO expansion forced them to do nothing else than protect their peaceful, rule-abiding and benevolent way of life,
I think the question I have is that being that Putin and his oligarchs and cronies are a bunch of thieves and murderers, does it serve the U.S.'s interests to arm their adversaries? Should the U.S. have been involved to the extent that it has? Perhaps we could outline several possible scenarios that could come out of this, several consequences. I guess one is that Russia is weakened, Putin is humiliated and toppled, and the Ukraine, though decimated, remains a free country? The U.S. is vindicated, neocon triumphalism takes a victory lap, China is taught a lesson, etc. Whats another possibility? World recession/depression, thousands upon thousands of deaths, more cities leveled, stalemate, MIC keeps raking in the $?
Quote from: milk on July 29, 2022, 05:06:36 AMChina is taught a lesson
The CCP is learning a lot of lessons in this war. One of the most important is the limit of US power when it comes to economic warfare. Not only can the US not use economic warfare to topple the governments in Cuba, or Iran, or North Korea, it cannot even get all European actors on board for a short period of time when billions are on the line.
Quote from: Todd on July 29, 2022, 04:21:43 AM
The linked IMF study is likewise carefully documented, as are the qualified opinions of ratings agencies in the wake of faux sovereign default. The reason I selected the phrase wishful thinking to describe Que's assertions is because they are wishful thinking, in the standard usage of that phrase.
From Merriam-Webster:
QuoteDefinition of wishful thinking
: the attribution of reality to what one wishes to be true or the tenuous justification of what one wants to believe
I would hardly call the justification put forth in that article "tenuous". It is well-documented, carefully worded, and clearly has a basis in reality. That does not mean it is correct or that the predictions made therein will come to pass. They may not, and Russia certainly has a long history of coming back from extremely difficult times. I agree that the current Russian regime will probably not fall as a result of this war. Other outcomes are certainly possible, including Russia's achieving total victory. All I'm saying is that the belief that Russia's campaign in Ukraine is stretching the Kremlin's resources dangerously thin has enough of a basis in fact that to call it "wishful thinking" is incorrect - again, using the Merriam-Webster definition.
Quote from: krummholz on July 29, 2022, 05:16:24 AM
From Merriam-Webster:
I would hardly call the justification put forth in that article "tenuous". It is well-documented, carefully worded, and clearly has a basis in reality. That does not mean it is correct or that the predictions made therein will come to pass. They may not, and Russia certainly has a long history of coming back from extremely difficult times. I agree that the current Russian regime will probably not fall as a result of this war. Other outcomes are certainly possible, including Russia's achieving total victory. All I'm saying is that the belief that Russia's campaign in Ukraine is stretching the Kremlin's resources dangerously thin has enough of a basis in fact that to call it "wishful thinking" is incorrect - again, using the Merriam-Webster definition.
Is it so crazy to imagine that if the war drags on, enough important military people killed, resources are stretched, or things go wrong in various ways, etc., that Putin could find himself choking on his Cheerios? On the other side of things, would Ukraine be willing to let an eastern part of it go if it had security guarantees and it knew Russia were really on the ropes and were throwing the towel?
Quote from: krummholz on July 29, 2022, 05:16:24 AM
From Merriam-Webster:
I would hardly call the justification put forth in that article "tenuous". It is well-documented, carefully worded, and clearly has a basis in reality. That does not mean it is correct or that the predictions made therein will come to pass. They may not, and Russia certainly has a long history of coming back from extremely difficult times. I agree that the current Russian regime will probably not fall as a result of this war. Other outcomes are certainly possible, including Russia's achieving total victory. All I'm saying is that the belief that Russia's campaign in Ukraine is stretching the Kremlin's resources dangerously thin has enough of a basis in fact that to call it "wishful thinking" is incorrect - again, using the Merriam-Webster definition.
The dictionary thing is weak sauce.
In any event, I used the phrase "wishful thinking" primarily to describe Que's post and also to point out the dangers of relying on policies reliant on economic collapse as the main or even one of the main solutions to the current war. Also, having read just the abstract, I see some problems with the paper. The authors place a lot of emphasis on the so-called loss of business, purportedly representing ~40% of GDP, but reports in the business press have been more circumspect on the impact and intent of the exiting businesses. Some business executives have been clear enough that they are being forced to leave and will return when they can. This is rather different than when businesses leave because of deteriorating economic fundamentals. Additionally, just the abstract uses sensationalist language - eg, crippling, oblivion, collapsed - which differs rather substantially from regular academic papers on economics. What the reasons are for that, one can only guess. Well, not really. The authors credit The Kyiv School of Economics in putting together sanctions ideas. The paper is not unbiased. The paper has an agenda. Which is fine. Again, one can read articles and analyses from the IMF and other sources that are not quite so dire. One can then pretend their selected articles are objective and represent the most probable outcome. Or, if you prefer, one can wish that their selected articles are true. Sanctions are hurting Russia, there is no doubting that objective reality, but it is typically best to view sensationalist proclamations with more than a little skepticism.
And of course, all the while, Russia and Ukraine keep fighting, and Russians and Ukrainians keep dying.
Thank you Montenegro! $:)
🇲🇪
Greece has started the ratification process. 0:)
580 Phoenix Ghost ( a nocturnal cousin to the Switchblade ) drones heading to Ukraine next month.
More reports of desertion and refusing combat within various Russian units, at every level. The morale issues which were being reported even early in the conflict continue.
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-deserting-posts-kyiv-uses-us-weapons-1727916
Then there are the brutes who never have morale issues, or any trace of an inconvenient conscience ( not for the squeamish ):
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/29/graphic-footage-appears-to-show-russian-fighter-castrating-ukrainian-prisoner-of-war-a78442
As far as the theory of an affronted Putin reacting to NATO expansion, l wonder if the former Warsaw Pact states who are now NATO members would still exist if they hadn't have joined. Putin might well have attempted to annex the Baltic States at the very least, and if it came cheap enough might have gone for the rest in turn. As Putin has recently revealed his imperialistic vision ( which reportedly - according to some " Putinists " - encompasses virtually all of Europe including the UK ), he has assumed Hitler's role, and should suffer a similar fate.
Quote from: LKB on July 29, 2022, 07:50:53 AMhe has assumed Hitler's role, and should suffer a similar fate.
Godwin's Law on display yet again. It has been a day or two on this forum.
Quote from: Todd on July 29, 2022, 07:52:49 AM
Godwin's Law on display yet again. It has been a day or two on this forum.
I won't bother reposting from February 25th again. Either you're not understanding Godwin's Law correctly, or have gone back to trolling for the lack of anything better.
Quote from: LKB on July 29, 2022, 08:14:26 AM
I won't bother reposting from February 25th again. Either you're not understanding Godwin's Law correctly, or have gone back to trolling for the lack of anything better.
Interesting.
Quote from: Todd on July 29, 2022, 04:21:43 AM
Of course, had the US not provoked tension with Russia by expanding NATO recklessly and relentlessly, the world would not be in the place it is now.
Trifecta!: vague, naive, and factually absurd.
Quote from: Madiel on July 29, 2022, 04:50:56 AM
The question is not simply whether the USA is connected to Ukraine. But whether the USA is connected to a country that is connected to a country that is connected to Ukraine. Given the number of countries that both the USA and Ukraine are connected to, the answer is yes.
For some unburdened by imagination, the world is a simple place.
Quote from: BasilValentine on July 29, 2022, 03:21:13 PM
Trifecta!: vague, naive, and factually absurd.
For some unburdened by imagination, the world is a simple place.
Thought provoking.
Quote from: Todd on July 29, 2022, 07:11:00 PM
Thought provoking.
I wish it
would provoke some thoughts.
Well, it's clear that Puyin is pulling the trigger on cutting the gas supplies to the EU completely:
Gazprom stops Latvia's gas in latest Russian cut to EU (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62359890)
With the possible exception of Hungary, which is negotiating an increased supply via the pipeline that conveniently runs via neutral Turkey and Russian ally Serbia.
The cuts will preempt attempts by many EU countries to build up sufficient reserves befor the coming winter. This is going to be big.
Quote from: Que on July 30, 2022, 03:42:41 AM
Well, it's clear that Puyin is pulling the trigger on cutting the gas supplies to the EU completely:
Gazprom stops Latvia's gas in latest Russian cut to EU (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62359890)
With the possible exception of Hungary, which is negotiating an increased supply via the pipeline that conveniently runs via neutral Turkey and Russian ally Serbia.
The cuts will preempt attempts by many EU countries to build up sufficient reserves befor the coming winter. This is going to be big.
It may be time to buy shares in Cheniere Energy. As already cited, the war has turned the US into the largest LNG exporter, so now there is key economic reason for the US to support a long-term war in Ukraine.
An informative thread about the bombing of the building with Ukrainian POWs
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1553346547739410432
Theiner also predicted the invasion and details in it, before it began.
Quote from: MusicTurner on July 30, 2022, 08:33:12 AM
An informative thread about the bombing of the building with Ukrainian POWs
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1553346547739410432
Theiner also predicted the invasion and details in it, before it began.
The whole Russian narrative was improbable right from the start.
The prisoners were members of the Azov bataljon that defended Mariupol. Now, what a coincidence... and how convenient...
This was likely to be an execution, staged as "friendly fire"... More war crimes...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FY6sYSJXEAMk1fI.png)
Quote from: Que on July 30, 2022, 09:09:51 AMThis was likely to be an execution, staged as "friendly fire"... More war crimes...
Russia is a great power. Perhaps some individual soldiers or officers will be held accountable for war crimes, but senior leaders will not be and Russia as a whole will not be. The same holds true for the US and its leaders for the war crimes committed in the post-war era. That is how things are and will remain.
Quote from: Todd on July 31, 2022, 08:15:09 AM
Russia is a great power. Perhaps some individual soldiers or officers will be held accountable for war crimes, but senior leaders will not be and Russia as a whole will not be. The same holds true for the US and its leaders for the war crimes committed in the post-war era. That is how things are and will remain.
How true, and sadly so...
Quote from: Todd on July 31, 2022, 08:15:09 AM
Russia is a great power. Perhaps some individual soldiers or officers will be held accountable for war crimes, but senior leaders will not be and Russia as a whole will not be.
This.
For the record: I'm an intractable russophobe.
Obviously Russia as a whole will not be.
This article by The Observer (published online by The Guardian) seems a fair assessment of what is at stake at Ukraine's Southern front and the challenges ahead:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/31/ukrainian-offensive-forces-russia-to-bolster-troops-in-occupied-south
Some Russians are worried the war will spread east. Putin is building a bunker in Tajikistan.
That high level meeting Putin had with his ministers was a custerfluck. Apparently one former yes man told him the war was lost and he should get out now.
Da, the war is lost. Putin will be the last to acknowledge it but he probably knows, unless he's insane, which I doubt.
Chechnya will rebel and hang the traitor Kadyrov who sold them to Putin. When the Chechens return victorious from helping the Ukes it's gonna get hot. Oh, and there are Cossacks in Ukraine, too, fighting their traditional enemy. Cossacks are close to Ukraine, it's an ancestral homeland. Other groups too have the scent of Russian blood in their nostrils.
I hate myself, so you don't have to. For several years I've dawdled over Lockheed Martin and didn't pull the trigger. I should have listened to my conscience and bought a truckload.
Quote from: drogulus on August 01, 2022, 08:01:24 PM
Chechnya will rebel and hang the traitor Kadyrov who sold them to Putin. When the Chechens return victorious from helping the Ukes it's gonna get hot. Oh, and there are Cossacks in Ukraine, too, fighting their traditional enemy. Cossacks are close to Ukraine, it's an ancestral homeland. Other groups too have the scent of Russian blood in their nostrils.
I read that Kadyrov decided to keep fresh troops that he promised to Putin at home instead, just in case...
For now seeing is believing as far as Ukrainian success on the battle field is concerned - but they seem to have at least a fair chance to turn the tide. Russian troops are overstretched, but can Ukraine muster enough strength to push back?
A crumbling of Russia at the (political) home and other fronts would be the best case scenario for Ukraine. Many wars against militarily strong adversaries have been won that way. You didn't mention Belarus or Georgia... if and when Putin's power and that of the Russian army starts sliding, things can go rapidly.
BTW the mystery on the missiles seems to be clarified. Stocks of modern and accurate missiles have practically run out and Russia is now mainly using old Soviet stocks. Those stocks are huge, but the 30+ years old missiles are unreliable and inaccurate. Of very limited use in military operations therefore, but if you want to indiscriminately bomb cities to terrorise the population... That Russia is now using missiles against the Ukrainian army that were designed for use against aerial targets, is quite telling.
Quote from: Que on August 01, 2022, 10:17:28 PM
BTW the mystery on the missiles seems to be clarified. Stocks of modern and accurate missiles have practically run out and Russia is now mainly using old Soviet stocks. Those stocks are huge, but the 30+ years old missiles are unreliable and inaccurate. Of very limited use in military operations therefore, but if you want to indiscriminately bomb cities to terrorise the population... That Russia is now using missiles against the Ukrainian army that were designed for use against aerial targets, is quite telling.
Not only is Russia wasting S-300s trying to hit apartment buildings but the Ukes are attacking the SAMNets near Kherson. Aren't these supposed to be beyond anything?
Quote from: drogulus on August 01, 2022, 08:01:24 PM
Chechnya will rebel and hang the traitor Kadyrov who sold them to Putin. When the Chechens return victorious from helping the Ukes it's gonna get hot. Oh, and there are Cossacks in Ukraine, too, fighting their traditional enemy. Cossacks are close to Ukraine, it's an ancestral homeland. Other groups too have the scent of Russian blood in their nostrils.
Yeah, sure. The victorious Ukrainian army, together with Chechen and Cossack regiments, will parade in the Red Square in front of Zelensky mounted on a white horse. The next day Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu and Gerasimov will be hanged on the Golden Gate of Kiev.
Wishful thinking is common during wartime.
Ukraine's Coming Attack Could Win or Lose the War (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-02/ukraine-s-coming-attack-will-win-or-lose-the-war-against-russia)
Great headline. Even allowing that a Bloomberg editor penned it, the opening sentence is no better:
Quote from: Hal BrandsThe Ukraine war is entering its third phase, and this one could well be decisive.
That title "Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs" guarantees insight.
Quote from: Florestan on August 02, 2022, 02:21:28 AM
Yeah, sure. The victorious Ukrainian army, together with Chechen and Cossack regiments, will parade in the Red Square in front of Zelensky mounted on a white horse. The next day Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu and Gerasimov will be hanged on the Golden Gate of Kiev.
I doubt it. Russian collapse doesn't need to have a movie ending. It will be a big mess.
Even Putin can be right at times. He sees chaos resulting from defeat of his plan. So do Putin haters among Russians. Everyone in Russia fears what comes after defeat. They are right to be afraid.
Geopolitical analysis from the Gray Lady:
A New Axis?
With tensions rising in Taiwan, we look at the shared interests of China, Russia and Iran. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/briefing/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-iran-russia.html)
Quote from: David LeonhardtPutin invaded Georgia, annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, murdered Russian dissidents and intervened in the U.S. presidential election in 2016. Each time, the U.S. avoided major confrontation, partly out of a worry that it could spark a larger war. Putin, viewing the U.S. and Western Europe as weak, responded last year with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
I guess editors and fact-checkers are on vacation.
Anyway, if one counts the Axis of Evil as an axis - and why wouldn't one? - then congratulations are in order for Iran as it is the only country to be a key member of two axes.
Quote from: Florestan on August 02, 2022, 02:21:28 AM
Yeah, sure. The victorious Ukrainian army, together with Chechen and Cossack regiments, will parade in the Red Square in front of Zelensky mounted on a white horse. The next day Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu and Gerasimov will be hanged on the Golden Gate of Kiev.
What an imagery! :D
China is living in interesting times. Their policy of biting the Feeding Hand (also known as "the world") makes it harder to avoid ruin. Who can help them? I don't see the US coming to the rescue. Maybe Iran and Russia will throw them a lifeline. D'ya think, maybe? Or maybe Sri Lanka andr a coalition of African friends could help them. After all, what are belts and roads for?
Thank you France! $:)
🇫🇷
The shortest posssible story of Russian military expansion over the last centuries:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/Territorial_Expansion_of_Russia.svg)
Funnily enough there's a brief mention of that history in Guns, Germs and Steel which I'm currently reading...
EDIT: Along with the point that you could make a similar sort of map for the United States.
Quote from: Madiel on August 02, 2022, 03:46:02 PM
How many left to go?
Türkiya
(process not even started)Spain
Greece
Portugal
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Hungary
The U.S.A.
Italy
(ratification very soon, probably today)
Quote from: 71 dB on August 03, 2022, 03:40:54 AM
Türkiya (process not even started)
Spain
Greece
Portugal
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Hungary
The U.S.A.
Italy (ratification very soon, probably today)
The US Senate is scheduled to vote on it today, so official ratification should be in the next few days.
(https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/INTERACTIVE-US-military-presence-around-the-world.png?w=770&resize=770%2C770)
The American Empire is the most expansive empire in human history. Russia has been at it longer, but the Russians are not quite so effective. And the Chinese, well, they have one overseas base. Amateurs.
Quote from: JBS on August 03, 2022, 04:33:32 AM
The US Senate is scheduled to vote on it today, so official ratification should be in the next few days.
The world is in the bizarre position of hoping that an autocrat in Turkey makes the rational choice.
Quote from: Todd on August 03, 2022, 04:40:03 AM
The American Empire is the most expansive empire in human history.
There is no such thing as an American Empire, at least not in the sense that the Roman, Russian, Ottoman or Austrian empires were.
The most expansive genuine empire was the Mongol, whose territory at its largest extent stretched contiguously from Thailand to Hungary.
Quote from: Todd on August 03, 2022, 04:40:03 AM
The American Empire is the most expansive empire in human history. Russia has been at it longer, but the Russians are not quite so effective. And the Chinese, well, they have one overseas base. Amateurs.
You have some peculiar ideas about what it actually takes to rule a territory.
Plus, the relevant part of
Guns, Germs and Steel is actually about how "Chinese" expansion happened a couple of thousand years ago, to the point where Westerners don't even recognise that a large part of China was not originally "Chinese". And you've just proved that point beautifully.
Quote from: Florestan on August 03, 2022, 05:00:21 AM
There is no such thing as an American Empire, at least not in the sense that the Roman, Russian, Ottoman or Austrian empires were.
The most expansive genuine empire was the Mongol, whose territory at its largest extent stretched contiguously from Thailand to Hungary.
The American Empire is a genuine empire. The US exercises effective suzerainty over most advanced countries and it exercises de facto control of the global financial system. Its currency is used to price the most important global commodity, serves as the de facto and in some cases legal reserve currency of other countries, and its sovereign debt guarantees trillions of dollars in financial transactions all over the world. The closest parallel in history is the British Empire. The US does not rely on the crude tools of the Old World to exercise authority and control, though it does still occupy countries it defeated nearly a century ago. Various intellectuals (actual intellectuals locked away in their ivory towers) debate the American empire, foreign foes or challengers decry it, and every so often it becomes a hot topic for public debate. In 2003, some politicians and public intellectuals toyed with embracing American Imperialism outright before America's latest crude, direct imperial project went sideways.
The most expansive previous empire was the British Empire, then the Mongolian. One can make a case that the Mongolian Empire is the most important empire in history in terms of influencing subsequent events.
Quote from: Todd on August 03, 2022, 05:23:25 AM
The US exercises effective suzerainty over most advanced countries
Really? Does the US nominate, or influence the election of, the president / prime-minister of UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Canada, Aiustralia or [insert adavnce country of choice]? If those counries' policies are not in line with what the US want at any given time, does the US interfere, directly or indirectly, to change those policies along desired lines?
Quote from: Florestan on August 03, 2022, 05:42:40 AMReally? Does the US nominate, or influence the election of, the president / prime-minister of UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Canada, Aiustralia or [insert adavnce country of choice]?
No, which is why I wrote that it exercises effective suzerainty over most advanced countries.
Quote from: Todd on August 03, 2022, 05:47:00 AM
No, which is why I wrote that it exercises effective suzerainty over most advanced countries.
Okay. Name three advanced countries over which the US exercises effective suzerainty.
Quote from: Florestan on August 03, 2022, 05:48:49 AM
Okay. Name three advanced countries over which the US exercises effective suzerainty.
Every member of NATO except Turkey to start.
Quote from: Todd on August 03, 2022, 05:50:48 AM
Every member of NATO except Turkey to start.
Which brings me back to the initial question. Does the US nominate, or influence the election of, the president / prime-minister of UK, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands or indeed any NATO country except Turkey? If those counries' policies are not in line with what the US want at any given time, does the US interfere, directly or indirectly, to change those policies along desired lines? You already answered "No". I guess your definition of "suzerainty" is at (great) variance with mine.
Quote from: Florestan on August 03, 2022, 05:56:04 AMI guess your definition of "suzerainty" is at (great) variance with mine.
Clearly. Your question begging pertains to domestic politics.
Quote from: JBS on August 03, 2022, 04:33:32 AM
The US Senate is scheduled to vote on it today, so official ratification should be in the next few days.
Yes, I just heard this on the Finnish news! $:)
The US has suzerained Canada to be north of itself to provide early warning of a nuclear attack. This is obviously disadvantageous to Canada.
It's not so good to be suzerained like Europeans either. It messes with their heads, making them think they are freely choosing to ally with the US.
Quote from: Todd on August 03, 2022, 04:40:03 AM
(https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/INTERACTIVE-US-military-presence-around-the-world.png?w=770&resize=770%2C770)
The American Empire is the most expansive empire in human history. Russia has been at it longer, but the Russians are not quite so effective. And the Chinese, well, they have one overseas base. Amateurs.
The world is in the bizarre position of hoping that an autocrat in Turkey makes the rational choice.
Guam has 54 US bases? Can that be right? It's 30 miles long.
Quote from: Todd on August 03, 2022, 06:05:01 AM
Clearly. Your question begging pertains to domestic politics.
I think you'll find people in most countries care about their domestic politics. Your frequent mistake is that because your own domestic politics is US politics, you think everyone has to view US politics in the way that you do and ignore domestic politics in other countries the way that you do.
Quote from: SimonNZ on August 03, 2022, 07:10:54 AM
Guam has 54 US bases? Can that be right? It's 30 miles long.
The first basic problem with that data is that Guam isn't even a country. It's American territory.
So is Puerto Rico.
The reliability of the rest of the graphic is seriously thrown into question when it's counting domestic bases.
Someone hacked Dmitry Medvedev. The message said the goal of Russia is to restore its empire. I'm shocked. See, I thought the goal was to restore the Russian empire. I've said that right here in Big Brainland. Is Medvedev a lying Commie bastard or no? Maybe he told a truth he thought would remain secret, but how secret could it be if everyone knows it?
Everyone does know it, right? Raise your hand if you don't.
Poland knows. They know for instance that Europe is at war. Some people don't know that. They don't know the restoration of the Russian empire has lots of war in it. I don't know how they don't know that. Given the intensity of the war for many months and the huge effort to support Ukraine it would seem obvious. I'll file this under unpleasant truths too painful to acknowledge. That's the best explanation I can come up with.
Winter is coming: Vladimir Putin faces his "Hitler moment" (https://www.salon.com/2022/08/03/winter-is-coming-vladimir-putin-faces-his-hitler-moment/)
Salon offers a thinky piece.
A little bit of research also establishes that you only have that number of US bases if you define "base" as widely as you possibly can - I found one of the possible sources of this data, the Quincy Institute, and it says "oh well, how you define a base is a political question", while failing to explain or justify why it's chosen wide definition is better.
Apparently you also get to define "military" really widely if you feel like it, because the unquestionable US base in Australia, Pine Gap, is not run by the military but by intelligence services. Hands up who thinks the CIA is part of the military?
The graphic is bunk, in other words.
The Quincy Institute basically advocates for less US military overseas, so it has an obvious interest in claiming that the US has a lot of military overseas so that it can get people to say "gosh, that's too high".
As predicted: Thank you Italy! $:)
🇮🇹
According to certain genius analysts Sweden and Finland should not be allowed into NATO becaaauuussse Europe doesn't contribute enough to its own defense! The odor of dead brain cells wafts through the air.
Since NATO is essential to US forward defense any contribution by Europeans to the alliance is a fukin' gift horse, the very opposite of a drain on resources.
We could plead for a larger contribution to keeping the US safe, but whatever the outcome of our pleading we are in this alliance for ourselves first, and then for others.
If we started with a blank sheet of paper we'd design US defense around an alliance of cooperating nations that would inevitably look a lot like the one we have. We'd ally with cooperators with economic and political ties already in place, and opposed to the most hostile nations to that order.
95 - 1
Thank you the United States of America! $:)
🇺🇸
71 dB, as an American I'm proud to say, " You're welcome. " ;)
Quote from: LKB on August 03, 2022, 06:20:21 PM
71 dB, as an American I'm proud to say, " You're welcome. " ;)
+1000
Quote from: Florestan on August 03, 2022, 05:42:40 AM
Really? Does the US nominate, or influence the election of, the president / prime-minister of UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Canada, Aiustralia or [insert adavnce country of choice]? If those counries' policies are not in line with what the US want at any given time, does the US interfere, directly or indirectly, to change those policies along desired lines?
I think the U.S. has had a hand in Japanese politics over the years. That's safe to say. It has interfered.
Quote from: LKB on August 03, 2022, 06:20:21 PM
71 dB, as an American I'm proud to say, " You're welcome. " ;)
Quote from: krummholz on August 03, 2022, 06:33:29 PM
+1000
1000 x $:)
I'm pretty sure Josh Hawley is now Todd's favorite senator. ;D
Quote from: milk on August 03, 2022, 09:48:25 PM
I think the U.S. has had a hand in Japanese politics over the years. That's safe to say. It has interfered.
I took the question to be asking if the US installs puppet governments like it did in Afghanistan and Iraq. That is a crude form of imperialism. The US does not do that with high income, long-standing allies. It leans on governments all the time, and forces changes on even high income, long-standing allies. FATCA is a perfect example of that, and the FCPA is another. The latter causes no little discomfort for Europeans.
Quote from: 71 dB on August 04, 2022, 03:18:09 AMI'm pretty sure Josh Hawley is now Todd's favorite senator.
A vote regarding small, weak European countries is not sufficient to sway my senatorial preferences. That written, Hawley's concerns are correct.
Intercepted phone calls are a good source for determining what's going on with Russian soldiers. I've listened to scores of them since they became available.
https://www.youtube.com/v/g2zLfFNDHK4
Putin thinks he has all of these soldiers that only exist for the purpose of collecting their pay. For the purpose of fighting they don't.
This soldier also indicates the heavy artillery is not firing. Could this be because the ammo dumps have been blown up? Maybe he doesn't know. We know, though.
Winter in Europe May Be Springtime for Putin (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/winter-europe-may-springtime-putin-daniel-yergin/?trackingId=fw2khW6%2FHNJR4bqulzmGVQ%3D%3D)
Originally published in the WSJ, and co-authored by Daniel Yergin.
The glee with which our esteemed fellow GMGer from the Pacific Northwest regularly provides links to articles that shed a negative light on, or spell doom for, Europe (or, more specifically, the EU) is rather amusing, in that it's reminiscent of the enthusiasm with which another cherished GMGer (from Northern Europe) would engage in America-bashing not too long ago....
Quote from: ritter on August 04, 2022, 09:45:27 AM
The glee with which our esteemed fellow GMGer from the Pacific Northwest regularly provides links to articles that shed a negative light on, or spell doom for, Europe (or, more specifically, the EU) is rather amusing, in that it's reminiscent of the enthusiasm with which another cherished GMGer (from Northern Europe) would engage in America-bashing not too long ago....
I am glad I can bring some amusement to your day.
Keep the faith, though, Europe is not doomed. It will muddle along, toyed with by great powers, with war-related deaths relegated to the east. Perhaps one day, Europeans will tire of being second-tier global players and will form a more perfect union, one capable of driving world events in their preferred direction. Or not.
Quote from: Todd on August 04, 2022, 09:54:07 AM
a more perfect union
Only the American rebels could have rebelled against English language too ... ;D ;D ;D
As suzereigns go the US is a pushover, and Europe knows it, which is why they don't feel obliged to pay any defense tax they don't want to pay. They are aware that the US best defends itself (and incidentally their own selves) far from its shores. If I put myself in the shoes of a European, could I reasonably wish for better?
From an enlightened US perspective (my own) being the kind of pushover we are has the advantage of making alliance with us a good deal all around. Even when we think allies misjudge their own self interests (Germany is a super example, as they have learned) they are free to make their mistakes. Such a degree of freedom is almost unsuzereign-ish. Me like.
A former President of Romania put it squarely a few years ago: I'd blowjob the POTUS rather than the President of the Russian Federation. ;D ;D ;D
A man of impeccable manners, that former President of yours. A true gentleman! ;D
Good evening to you, Andrei. Gioia e pace per mill'anni. :)
Quote from: ritter on August 04, 2022, 11:19:59 AM
A man of impeccable manners, that former President of yours. A true gentleman! ;D
He was a direct, rude and straightforward former naval officer --- in my not so humble opinion, the best President of Romania after 1989. ;)
QuoteGood evening to you, Andrei. Gioia e pace per mill'anni. :)
Buenas noches,
Rafael!
Pace e gioia per mill'anni :D
Even from prison I can see opposition to Putin's war growing (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/05/russia-putin-opposition-ukraine-war/)
By Vladimir Kara-Murza
Did you hear the one about Lil' Kim sending his troops to Ukraine to (heh!) help the Russians? One imagines thousands of N' Koreans running towards the Uke positions stripping off their uniforms while being chased by Chechens. I'd almost like to see that. Sadly, I don't think I will.
Can Russia Divide Europe?
Why a False Peace Could Be Worse Than a Long War (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/can-russia-divide-europe?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Can%20Russia%20Divide%20Europe?&utm_content=20220805&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Quote from: Nathalie TocciIt is precisely when violence [hypothetically] subsides that the West should show its true resilience and redouble support for Kyiv, to ensure not just that Russia loses this war but that Ukraine actually wins it, by securing a territorially and therefore economically viable state, with security guarantees, and, ultimately, a course toward reconstruction and democratic consolidation in the EU. However, the temptation to seek accommodation with Russia would be strong, especially given that it would likely happen at a time of growing social, economic, political, and geopolitical pressures on the continent. If a reduction in violence in Ukraine coincides with a surging energy crisis in Europe, it could lead European leaders not just to argue and dither but to divide apart altogether.
Or, to paraphrase a famous song:
Fight fiercely, Europe
Fight, fight, fight!
Demonstrate to them your skill
Albeit they possess the might
Nonetheless you have the will
Turning Ukraine into an economically viable state will prove to be something of a challenge, no matter what happens with the war. Zelensky's (sp?) last ask was for $750 billion in aid, for an economy with GDP of ~$160 billion and a government budget of ~$40 billion before the war. Some of Russia's longer-term war aims in Ukraine have already been achieved. The 2020s are a lost decade for Ukraine.
When the Russians moved the Black Sea fleet (remnants thereof) from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk it looked like Russia decided Crimea would soon be unsafe. Perhaps the looming loss of Kherson portends something of greater significance may be approaching. The entire southern front may collapse. Crimea will soon be in range of superior Ukrainian weapons.
A little birb tells me the Ukes may decide the Kerch bridge is too wonderful to be attacked. They want it as a big part of the economic recovery of the region.
Apparently three primenant Russian scientists involved in military projects, including the hypersonic missile project, have been arrested and charged with treason.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/05/europe/russian-hypersonic-missile-scientist-arrest-treason-hnk-intl/index.html
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 06, 2022, 08:56:42 PM
Apparently three primenant Russian scientists involved in military projects, including the hypersonic missile project, have been arrested and charged with treason.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/05/europe/russian-hypersonic-missile-scientist-arrest-treason-hnk-intl/index.html
I guess Putin wasn't quite happy with the progress on his "Wunderwaffen".....
Quote from: drogulus on August 06, 2022, 04:36:55 PM
When the Russians moved the Black Sea fleet (remnants thereof) from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk it looked like Russia decided Crimea would soon be unsafe. Perhaps the looming loss of Kherson portends something of greater significance may be approaching. The entire southern front may collapse. Crimea will soon be in range of superior Ukrainian weapons.
A little birb tells me the Ukes may decide the Kerch bridge is too wonderful to be attacked. They want it as a big part of the economic recovery of the region.
Agreed. Wishful thinking or not, Russia is clearly concerned judging from the build up of troops in the southwest
and in the Crimea. Read that the troops that are sent there are the best of what is still available. Which indicates that in a worst case scenario, Putin wants to hold in to the Crimea.
Analists see the Russian reinforcements preparing for an offensive, in order to retake the initiative.
Now, I'm not a military strategist, but couldn't that backfire with an advantage for defending Ukrain troops?
Iran has provided over 50 drones to the Russian army. Clearly, Iran isn't interested in a better relationship with the West. Noted, I'd say.
Quote from: Todd on August 06, 2022, 11:16:41 AM
Can Russia Divide Europe?
Why a False Peace Could Be Worse Than a Long War (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/can-russia-divide-europe?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Can%20Russia%20Divide%20Europe?&utm_content=20220805&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Or, to paraphrase a famous song:
Fight fiercely, Europe
Fight, fight, fight!
Demonstrate to them your skill
Albeit they possess the might
Nonetheless you have the will
Turning Ukraine into an economically viable state will prove to be something of a challenge, no matter what happens with the war. Zelensky's (sp?) last ask was for $750 billion in aid, for an economy with GDP of ~$160 billion and a government budget of ~$40 billion before the war. Some of Russia's longer-term war aims in Ukraine have already been achieved. The 2020s are a lost decade for Ukraine.
I started this whole discussion seeing only one "bad guy" in this but I'm beginning to be skeptical that there is any real "winner" or however one wants to put it. At least it might be better still to find a way for all parties to walk away and look/feel like they've gained something. Is that off the table? Why? Why is there an inevitability that this has to go on and on? Is it only Putin's intractability? I don't see any winners in this continuing. Not Russia and not the U.S. and the Ukraine is only going to make it by holding out its hand for enormous sums of money. Instead of trading criminals for semi-famous basketball stars why don't they start really talking behind the scenes about compromising, good-will gestures, opportunities for peace measures. Am I delusional? Has anyone even suggested this anywhere? Russia wants something. Is it really the glory of some former tsar? Really? Or is it something more modest? Maybe I'm naive but if so, then bombs away I guess.
If you look at the reasoning behind the invasion, Putin's aspirations are not modest at all...
Sure, at some point negotiations will be inevitable.
But IMO Putin will only engage in negotiations if and when he has run out of other options. Which is not now or anytime soon.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 02:51:55 AM
Is it really the glory of some former tsar? Really?
Pretty much.
As people here have seen I have only posted about NATO ratifications. I have forced myself to "close my eyes" about everything else.
Why?
Because Russia attacking Ukraine after a few months of confusion and shock made me realize that I am living on a planet where civilization, progress and culture doesn't mean much. We humans have made this planet a shitty place and we don't have a clue how to live. Yeah, yeah, I know a lot of people know and are good and whatever, but NOT ENOUGH people are!! At this point in history:
- ALL countries should be totally democratic, free, peaceful and working together to deal with issues such as climate change
- ALL people in power should be competent, educated, humane and eager to serve common good rather than themselves only.
This planet is far from that. Democratic countries are rare exceptions. Good politicians and leaders are exceptions. Masses are politically extremely ignorant voting against their own good in almost all elections. Even many democratic countries do not function properly. That's why we are in this mess.
So, this damn planet is what it is and we are forced to live here. Some people are smart enough to become astronauts and live 400 km from the surfice of this hellhole inside ISS, but most of us are stuck here.
I have this ONE life and I have to make the best out of it. That's why I have been concentrating on my OWN life as much as possible. NATO ratifications affect MY piece of mind. That's why I follow those, but that's it. Other news are just depressing. I life in denial of the problems, because that's the only way to be somewhat happy. You can call that selfish if you want. I don't care. This is a planet of INSANELY greedy monsters. I am NOTHING compared to the likes of Alex Jones. NOTHING!! Me not caring about what happens in the World outside my own life does not ruin the lives of other people, does it?
That's why I don't care about if poor people in the UK are screwed. The brits have allowed their country to become a half-oligarchy. That's why I don't care about the US sliding toward theoracy. Maybe Americans wake up now, but that's their business. That's why I don't care about the war in Ukraine or the conflict between China and Taiwan. I "lost" 5 years of my life caring about the healthcare of americans. So stupid! Never again will I care about problems in other countries. I only care about problems in my OWN life from now on. I wish all people in the World had good lives, but I am not a God-like creature who can fix everything.
I listen to music. I make music. I study music theory. I write Nyquist plug-ins. I watch Blu-rays and Youtube videos. I go out in the nature. I try to think about the problems in the World as little as possible. Worrying about rising electric bills and energy crisis won't make those problems smaller so why ruin life over them? Just pay the bigger bills and move on! Only when my savings are all gone am I screwed. I am fine for now.
I feel BETTER. I feel I have found myself again. I have much less dark clouds in my head. My mistake was to care about things "outside" my own life and things I can influence on such as Finnish elections. On this planet people who care are not rewarded. Greedy assholes are. I don't want to be a greedy asshole (my personality type is against such a thing) so I just don't care, because caring too much seems to take the joy out of life.
You have finally seen the light, Poju. Excellent news.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 02:51:55 AM
I started this whole discussion seeing only one "bad guy" in this but I'm beginning to be skeptical that there is any real "winner" or however one wants to put it. At least it might be better still to find a way for all parties to walk away and look/feel like they've gained something. Is that off the table? Why? Why is there an inevitability that this has to go on and on? Is it only Putin's intractability? I don't see any winners in this continuing. Not Russia and not the U.S. and the Ukraine is only going to make it by holding out its hand for enormous sums of money. Instead of trading criminals for semi-famous basketball stars why don't they start really talking behind the scenes about compromising, good-will gestures, opportunities for peace measures. Am I delusional? Has anyone even suggested this anywhere? Russia wants something. Is it really the glory of some former tsar? Really? Or is it something more modest? Maybe I'm naive but if so, then bombs away I guess.
The United States benefits economically from war and has, on and off, since the 1890s. War is how the US became the dominant global power. WWI saw it take over the role of central financial power from the UK, and WWII saw it become the central political and military power of the allies and the powers they conquered. The subsequent wars the US fought cost American lives, but helped build the American economy, which disproportionately relies on military spending for economic growth and technological advances. Provided there is no nuclear exchange in this war, the US can gain by selling elaborately expensive weapons systems all over Europe and by taking over portions of Russian energy exports to Europe, which it has already done with no little alacrity. The US has economic interests in prolonging this war, but no interests in Ukraine itself. Additionally, the US will expand its empire yet further, which all empires do. The risks are that the US overextends itself financially and provokes another war, and a more expansive one. Worst case scenario for the US would be to be to fight two wars against two powers at the same time. There will be those who insist the US can mobilize and do so again. That is untrue. If the US fights both Russia and China, it will lose. And wars against these powers do not necessarily need to be of the expeditionary, military sort, at least for the US. The US will not lose in the sense of Germany and Japan in that it will not be conquered, but it will lose primacy. Were US policymakers actually concerned with American Exceptionalism, then they would choose policies to manage decline over decades in a manner that will not bring with it widespread economic dislocation and an unnecessary relative economic decline. (The word relative is critical since the US will not be reduced to penury.) America is not exceptional.
Russia does want something. It has been clear for decades what that is: strategic security. NATO expansion threatens Russia. NATO expansion is intrinsically aggressive and provocative. This has been warned about since the 90s, and indeed, the more restrained approach initially taken by Bush I accounted for that. The Clinton years saw the end of that, and the US has acted aggressively since. Many people in the west are blind to that, either willfully or foolishly. Triumphalism and the crusader mentality - manifested in the drive to spread democracy and capitalism, and the assorted accoutrements that come with them - informs policy, and not just in Europe. The West put itself in a position where large scale war has returned to Europe, which of course is very common historically. Reducing the current situation to one man, hence relying on a variant of the great man theory, must at this point be viewed as an active, conscious choice of self-deception. When Putin dies, Russia will not, and the same concerns and conditions will exist.
Very few people actually want peace. Very few people will explicitly state they want war, of course, so instead they will offer other reasons why a political settlement should not be pursued. Rationales vary, including nebulous and flexible concepts like justice, but they all rely on continued war. Since my streets are safe from foreign bombs, I lose no sleep from the latest European war or any other war raging in other uncivilized parts of the world. But life sucks for Ukrainians.
Quote from: Christo on August 07, 2022, 05:24:40 AMUtter nonsense, even the 'expansion' part which is not about expansion, but rather the self destination of independent countries and their right to choose their own allies. In no way did NATO ever "threaten" Russia, nor will it, in the foreseeable future.
This is a perfect, brief encapsulation of the crusader mentality as it pertains to rationalizing military expansion of the American Empire.
Quote from: Todd on August 07, 2022, 05:09:46 AMNATO expansion threatens Russia. NATO expansion is intrinsically aggressive and provocative.
Utter nonsense, even the 'expansion' part which is not about expansion, but rather the self destination of independent countries and their right to choose their own allies. In no way did NATO ever "threaten" Russia, nor will it, in the foreseeable future.
Which country is the most expansive world-wide?
(https://preview.redd.it/ehjojibvp4h81.jpg?auto=webp&s=ae3f33959e7352389e9951a138668d966a8d2845)
Quote from: Christo on August 07, 2022, 05:31:44 AMWhich country is the most expansive world-wide?
The United States.
The continued defense of the American Empire on this forum, very often relying on denial, does make me want to investigate what types of literature exist on the psychology of imperial subjects in vassal states.
Quote from: Todd on August 07, 2022, 05:37:11 AM
The United States.
The continued defense of the American Empire on this forum, very often relying on denial, does make me want to investigate what types of literature exist on the psychology of imperial subjects in vassal states.
There is simply no American equivalent - and certainly not in Europe, where there's never been any "vassal state" - of this expansion:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/Territorial_Expansion_of_Russia.svg)
Quote from: Christo on August 07, 2022, 05:50:19 AMThere is simply no American equivalent - and certainly not in Europe, where there's never been any "vassal state"
Incorrect. I posted a map and additional information previously. You can read those posts, or not, whichever suits. And you can deny the existence of the American Empire.
(https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/JMt8dfNrHPE7FtPqlBgI0A--~B/aD00Njg7dz0xMDA2O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en-us/us.finance.gurufocus/a985551051638d8b8d060133144cb541)
Ray Dalio, the manager of the largest hedge fund in the world, put together a study and some videos based on his and his researchers' work on the rise and fall of empires. He and his team looked at a span of five hundred years and came up with a basic framework and timeline for the rise and fall of great powers. If this seems reminiscent of Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, that's because it is, but it comes at it from a financier's position, so some of the focus is different. (And on the subject of financiers, Dalio is not so much fun as Jim Rogers, who upped and moved his family to Singapore in light of shifting geopolitics, putting not only his money but his family where his mouth is, as it were.) I disagree with some of Dalio's details and timelines, but the rise and fall of empires has been going on since the Neolithic Revolution. For some reason, some people today appear to actually believe that we, collectively, have fully learned lessons of the past and that the institutional and legalistic superstructures created in the post-war era are somehow different enough from past institutional structures to prevent a similar fate. That seems rather dubious, but who knows, maybe.
Quote from: Christo on August 07, 2022, 05:50:19 AM
There is simply no American equivalent - and certainly not in Europe, where there's never been any "vassal state" - of this expansion:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/Territorial_Expansion_of_Russia.svg)
Of course; it's only vapid whataboutery.
"Vassal" is an uninformative epithet. Is Germany a vassal in the Belarus sense? I would count Belarus a vassal because they are threatened by Russia into supporting a war on their own territory which they clearly want no part of. They are occupied by Russian troops who stage attacks on Ukraine. One understands this clearly. Luka is squirming publicly, talking out of both side of his mouth. He is for/against participating, saying things to reassure NATO he won't intervene while giving the weakest possible support for Putin.
Germany is acting like a sovereign alliance partner trying to square the circle of energy requirements due to the colossal blunder it made to tie itself to Russian energy in a very unvassalish manner. A vassalized Germany wouldn't be allowed to make such a mistake. How is that not clear?
Quote from: Todd on August 07, 2022, 05:52:27 AM
Incorrect. I posted a map and additional information previously. You can read those posts, or not, whichever suits. And you can deny the existence of the American Empire.
And the map is wrong. Which you obviously didn't read.
There are not 7 military bases in Australia. Some of the things counted are not bases, and some of the things counted are not military.
That, coupled with the map counting Puerto Rico and Guam as foreign countries, coupled with finding a more direct source than Al Jazeera, makes it pretty clear that the map is attempting to score political points rather than being an exercise in data.
Now sure, you took Hawaii. But it's not clear you count that in your claims.
Quote from: Florestan on August 07, 2022, 03:59:51 AM
You have finally seen the light, Poju. Excellent news.
41
Quote from: Madiel on August 07, 2022, 01:25:28 PM
And the map is wrong. Which you obviously didn't read.
There are not 7 military bases in Australia. Some of the things counted are not bases, and some of the things counted are not military.
That, coupled with the map counting Puerto Rico and Guam as foreign countries, coupled with finding a more direct source than Al Jazeera, makes it pretty clear that the map is attempting to score political points rather than being an exercise in data.
Now sure, you took Hawaii. But it's not clear you count that in your claims.
Todd is presenting his " arguments " as a lawyer would. That being the case, it's worth noting that lawyers are hardly ever interested in objective truth; they're interested in
winning.
This documentary is well worth watching.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/ukraine-life-under-russias-attack/
I would just like to sum up the positions here to see them in their clearest form that each "side" can agree to.
The U.S. is/is not an empire. It is/is not an empire in decline. It is/is not one of the greatest empires in history. It is/isn't by far the dominant military force in the world.
Russia does/doesn't have rational security concerns from its perspective. Russia really does see NATO expansion as a threat regardless of whether it should or shouldn't.
Russia's war in the Ukraine was/wasn't precipitated by rational concerns.
Russia's war was/wasn't precipitated by the grandiose vision of an egomaniac.
The war could have been prevented had NATO/the U.S. been more reasonable/modest/willing to negotiate.
The U.S. must support the war against Russia in order to prevent Russia from further aggression that would threaten global security and U.S. interests.
Is there something else? What's being argued here?
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 04:18:00 PMThe U.S. is/is not an empire. It is/is not an empire in decline. It is/is not one of the greatest empires in history. It is/isn't by far the dominant military force in the world.
"Is" to all.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 04:18:00 PMRussia does/doesn't have rational security concerns from its perspective. Russia really does see NATO expansion as a threat regardless of whether it should or shouldn't.
"Does" to both.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 04:18:00 PMRussia's war in the Ukraine was/wasn't precipitated by rational concerns.
Was.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 04:18:00 PMRussia's war was/wasn't precipitated by the grandiose vision of an egomaniac.
Was, kinda. Egomaniac may not be the best word.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 04:18:00 PMThe war could have been prevented had NATO/the U.S. been more reasonable/modest/willing to negotiate.
Yes, though this immediately devolves into a contrafactual argument on either side.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 04:18:00 PMThe U.S. must support the war against Russia in order to prevent Russia from further aggression that would threaten global security and U.S. interests.
There is no threat to US interests - which have never been defined in any event - and "global" security concerns do not exist.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 04:18:00 PM
I would just like to sum up the positions here to see them in their clearest form that each "side" can agree to.
The U.S. is/is not an empire. It is/is not an empire in decline. It is/is not one of the greatest empires in history. It is/isn't by far the dominant military force in the world.
Russia does/doesn't have rational security concerns from its perspective. Russia really does see NATO expansion as a threat regardless of whether it should or shouldn't.
Russia's war in the Ukraine was/wasn't precipitated by rational concerns.
Russia's war was/wasn't precipitated by the grandiose vision of an egomaniac.
The war could have been prevented had NATO/the U.S. been more reasonable/modest/willing to negotiate.
The U.S. must support the war against Russia in order to prevent Russia from further aggression that would threaten global security and U.S. interests.
Is there something else? What's being argued here?
Milk, l believe we haven't directly communicated before, so let me just say that l admire your efforts to understand the various points-of-view exhibited in this thread.
I think your post above is a good basic summing-up of the presented perspectives. Moreover, by doing so l suspect you've given everyone an opportunity to reset themselves emotionally, by virtue of being able to appreciate each perspective in isolation.
Thanks for that.
Putin launched a war against Ukraine. NATO didn't make him do it. No facts counter that.
Since we're being facty, Ukraine wasn't on the short list for NATO membership. There is a reason, and here it is. Part of Ukraine has been occupied by Russia for years. That's a disqualification.
What Putin feared was Ukraine gaining membership in the EU, strengthening ties to the West and boosting the economy and political stabilization. That's a threat to Putin, but it would be insane to claim it amounted to a justification for Russian aggression. I expect to hear the insane pipe up soon.
Quote from: milk on August 07, 2022, 04:18:00 PM
I would just like to sum up the positions here to see them in their clearest form that each "side" can agree to.
The U.S. is/is not an empire. It is/is not an empire in decline. It is/is not one of the greatest empires in history. It is/isn't by far the dominant military force in the world.
Russia does/doesn't have rational security concerns from its perspective. Russia really does see NATO expansion as a threat regardless of whether it should or shouldn't.
Russia's war in the Ukraine was/wasn't precipitated by rational concerns.
Russia's war was/wasn't precipitated by the grandiose vision of an egomaniac.
The war could have been prevented had NATO/the U.S. been more reasonable/modest/willing to negotiate.
The U.S. must support the war against Russia in order to prevent Russia from further aggression that would threaten global security and U.S. interests.
Is there something else? What's being argued here?
Sorry but I can't buy into a number of your binary choices.
One of the problems here is that Todd keeps getting to drive the narrative (mostly by ignoring anything meaningful that anyone else says) and so other people waste (yes, waste) a lot of energy just negating whatever Todd says.
I don't believe that the USA is an "empire". But just having to repeatedly refute the empire language doesn't leave much room for discussing what the USA actually is... and then going on to discuss whether and how that's even relevant to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Plus some of your binaries demand a choice in cases where both answers can be right. Russia, or Putin in particular, can perceive NATO as a threat and he can be wrong about that perception as well. Russia can have some legitimate interests in Eastern Europe at the same time as Putin being a megalomaniac who dreams of a restored empire as a means of securing those interests.
But I will say one thing: the notion that NATO is merely a front for the USA is profoundly insulting to the other countries involved, and the ratification process for the entry of Finland and Sweden makes it pretty darn obvious that it's inaccurate. So both Putin and Todd (who does a great job at times of being a Putin apologist) have got that wrong.
Quote from: LKB on August 07, 2022, 04:31:40 PM
Milk, l believe we haven't directly communicated before, so let me just say that l admire your efforts to understand the various points-of-view exhibited in this thread.
I think your post above is a good basic summing-up of the presented perspectives. Moreover, by doing so l suspect you've given everyone an opportunity to reset themselves emotionally, by virtue of being able to appreciate each perspective in isolation.
Thanks for that.
Thank YOU!
I spend a bit of time watching by people talk about street epistemology and the psychology of knowing and belief. It's interesting. I think we do tend to dig in.
I think Russia has had great difficulty in accepting its own decline as an empire.
That's not a threat by others as such, but can perceived and construed as such if you blame others for your own demise.
In hindsight we shouldn't be surprised that Russia at some point would try to reverse its decline of global power by the use of force. The real surprise is that Western powers were blind to the dangers and thought Russia could be appeased by economic cooperation and progres. Crimea should have been a watershed in Western policy on Russia, but wasn't.
Russia went rogue after the US invaded Iraq, despite Russia's objections and in violation of the decision mechanism in the Security Council and breaching international law. So, in a way the actions of the Bush administration were a trigger for much of what we are dealing with today.
Quote from: Que on August 07, 2022, 11:25:51 PM
I think Russia has had great difficulty in accepting its own decline as an empire.
That's not a threat by others as such, but can perceived and construed as such if you blame others for your own demise.
In hindsight we shouldn't be surprised that Russia at some point would try to reverse its decline of global power by the use of force. The real surprise is that Western powers were blind to the dangers and thought Russia could be appeased by economic cooperation and progres. Crimea should have been a watershed in Western policy on Russia, but wasn't.
Russia went rogue after the US invaded Iraq, despite Russia's objections and in violation of the decision mechanism in the Security Council and breaching international law. So, in a way the actions of the Bush administration were a trigger for much of what we are dealing with today.
When you talk about the danger in thinking that "Russia could be appeased by economic cooperation and progress," to what exactly are you referring?
Quote from: milk on August 08, 2022, 12:03:22 AM
When you talk about the danger in thinking that "Russia could be appeased by economic cooperation and progress," to what exactly are you referring?
That Russia would accept the loss of its "sphere of influence" in Eastern Europe as long as Russia would be fully integrated into the global and European economic system through mutually benifical economic cooperation. This was the cornerstone of Germany's Russia policy (
Ostpolitik). The problem IMO was that Russia ultimately didn't develop into an modern open and democratic society. And Putin didn't trust the US anymore after Iraq... It went all downhill from there.
Quote from: Que on August 08, 2022, 12:23:26 AM
That Russia would accept the loss of its "sphere of influence" in Eastern Europe as long as Russia would be fully integrated into the global and European economic system through mutually benifical economic cooperation. This was the cornerstone of Germany's Russia policy (Ostpolitik). The problem IMO was that Russia ultimately didn't develop into an modern open and democratic society. And Putin didn't trust the US anymore after Iraq... It went all downhill from there.
I thought I remembered this:
"I looked the man in the eye. I found him very straightforward and trustworthy – I was able to get a sense of his soul." - W
Quote from: Que on August 08, 2022, 12:23:26 AMThe problem IMO was that Russia ultimately didn't develop into an modern open and democratic society. And Putin didn't trust the US anymore after Iraq... It went all downhill from there.
This is ahistorical. NATO expansion has always been a problem for Russia. Yeltsin objected about it directly to Clinton. Russia was in a uniquely weakened position in the 90s and could do nothing about NATO expansion. The Second Iraq War is not the primary or even a significant cause of distrust between Russia and the west, at least taken alone – one must factor in the US policy of regime change, which Biden supported in one of his "gaffes" earlier this year. George W Bush openly called for both Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO in early 2008. (Some people still favor expanding NATO to include Ukraine even today.) Russia engaged in war with Georgia in the summer of 2008. The Russo-Ukraine War began in 2014, and the full-scale invasion that began earlier this year was preceded by the "Joint Statement on the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership" from September 2021. While it is unlikely that a White House policy paper caused a war, it did signal and accompany an increased focus on Ukraine, which from a Russian standpoint is intolerable. The warnings about the consequences of NATO expansion from the 90s first came to fruition in 2008, and rather than step back from aggressive expansion, western leaders upped the ante.
The bit about Russia not developing into a modern, open, and democratic society exemplifies the crusader mentality in western foreign policy. It is a uniquely western outlook that most of the rest of the world, including some democracies, do not adhere to.
I agree that the Russians have a difficult time accepting that they are in decline, just as Americans do, just as all imperial powers do. Additionally, Europeans will have an increasingly difficult time accepting that eastern powers will hold increased sway in international and economic affairs. Western domination of world affairs that began with the Age of Discovery is waning and will accelerate.
Can we please stop talking about threats to Russia and Russian interests? The interests allegedly threatened by countries joining NATO are not the national interests of Russia, but those of a small cadre of sociopaths and criminal autocrats who have no legitimate mandate to define national interests. It's absurd, delusional, and dangerous to pretend otherwise.
Quote from: BasilValentine on August 08, 2022, 05:38:10 AM
Can we please stop talking about threats to Russia and Russian interests? The interests allegedly threatened by countries joining NATO are not the national interests of Russia, but those of a small cadre of sociopaths and criminal autocrats who have no legitimate mandate to define national interests. It's absurd, delusional, and dangerous to pretend otherwise.
A rather absurd and delusional post, to be sure.
Quote from: BasilValentine on August 08, 2022, 05:38:10 AM
Can we please stop talking about threats to Russia and Russian interests? The interests allegedly threatened by countries joining NATO are not the national interests of Russia, but those of a small cadre of sociopaths and criminal autocrats who have no legitimate mandate to define national interests. It's absurd, delusional, and dangerous to pretend otherwise.
True.
Russophobia is real and global. OK, regional.
Quote from: Todd on August 08, 2022, 06:24:41 AM
Russophobia is real and global. OK, regional.
And firmly based on, and derived of, (f)actual history and first-hand historical experience with Russia.
I judge Russia needs to sell energy to Europe more than Europe needs to buy it. Europe is already disconnecting and Norway and the US fill the gap, though not completely. LNG capacity is growing. Germany, having learned from its mistake, will not make it again. After the war, the Ukrainian gas fields will be developed and a new era of fabulousness will commence.
Perhaps as in olden days Kiev will be the capital of a new empire incorporaing some of the territory of Kievan Rus'. It's probably too good to be true that Lithuania will revert to paganism. Oh well....
Quote from: Florestan on August 08, 2022, 08:42:12 AM
And firmly based on, and derived of, (f)actual history and first-hand historical experience with Russia.
Which explains why I added the regional qualifier. A goodly number of people in a broad array of countries don't view Russia as a threat. The current, very impassioned and doublethink infested fear of Russia will not remain after the war winds down, however long that takes. It is inevitable. Perceptions of threats wax and wane. Remember when the US was the greatest threat to peace: In Gallup Poll, The Biggest Threat To World Peace Is ... America? (https://www.ibtimes.com/gallup-poll-biggest-threat-world-peace-america-1525008) Good heavens!
Of course, all phobias are irrational and seriously hamper rational policy responses. They may even lead to policies explicitly calling for the continuation of war with absolutist prohibitions against pursuing political settlements. Such prohibitions may also be informed by the cynicism of select leaders.
With Enough Help, Ukraine Can Win (https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win/)
Quote from: Todd on August 08, 2022, 09:15:03 AM
all phobias are irrational
Polish, Baltic and Romanian Russophobia is anything but irrational. As I said, it is grounded on hard historical facts and stems from having direct and extensive (ie, centuries old) experience with Russia --- something which, with all due respect, you conspicuously lack.
On the contrary, Poland's, Baltic States' and Romania's desire to escape once and for all from Russian hegemony is very rational.
Ex-Pink Floyd Roger Waters backs Russia, calls Biden a 'war criminal' over Ukraine. He also maintains that Taiwan is a part of China.
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3592647-pink-floyds-waters-backs-russia-calls-biden-a-war-criminal-over-ukraine/
Quote from: Madiel on August 07, 2022, 07:19:36 PM
One of the problems here is that Todd keeps getting to drive the narrative (mostly by ignoring anything meaningful that anyone else says) and so other people waste (yes, waste) a lot of energy just negating whatever Todd says.
Kind looks like trolling, which some of us repeatedly encourage. He wouldn't drive the narrative if some of us weren't so ready to give him the wheel.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on August 08, 2022, 09:33:52 AM
Ex-Pink Floyd Roger Waters backs Russia, calls Biden a 'war criminal' over Ukraine. He also maintains that Taiwan is a part of China.
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3592647-pink-floyds-waters-backs-russia-calls-biden-a-war-criminal-over-ukraine/
Shut up and play yer damn bass, Roger.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on August 08, 2022, 09:35:32 AM
Shut up and play yer damn bass, Roger.
Didn't know that he had that poor understanding of the issue.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on August 08, 2022, 09:37:05 AM
Didn't know that he had that poor understanding of the issue.
Reminds me, too, of our friend's signature:
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and leave no doubt.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on August 08, 2022, 09:37:05 AM
Didn't know that he had that poor understanding of the issue.
People whose net worth is $310 million can afford having zero understanding of everything. The only reason why the World pays any attention to his ignorance is because he is an Ex-Pink Floyd member.
Quote from: 71 dB on August 08, 2022, 09:46:20 AM
People whose net worth is $310 million can afford having zero understanding of everything.
When he was a younger man, he would have despised anyone who thought that being rich means that one's opinion is necessarily important.
Quote from: Florestan on August 08, 2022, 09:28:04 AM
Polish, Baltic and Romanian Russophobia is anything but irrational. As I said, it is grounded on hard historical facts and stems from having direct and extensive (ie, centuries old) experience with Russia --- something which, with all due respect, you conspicuously lack.
On the contrary, Poland's, Baltic States' and Romania's desire to escape once and for all from Russian hegemony is very rational.
Yes, one can argue that countries close to Russia that have endured a history of Russian oppression may exhibit a rational fear of Russia. The farther away from Russia one gets, the less and less rational the fear becomes. Finally, for the US, there is no rational basis for Russophobia, and there never has been. The various bouts of Russophobia starting in the Wilson years, and waxing and waning since, have always been severe overreactions.
This is where people far removed from direct Russian threats have to assess the importance of confronting Russia in an effort to ostensibly protect small, weak countries prone to Russian domination. Irrational Russophobia is informing policy right now.
Quote from: Dry Brett Kavanaugh on August 08, 2022, 09:33:52 AM
Ex-Pink Floyd Roger Waters backs Russia, calls Biden a 'war criminal' over Ukraine. He also maintains that Taiwan is a part of China.
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/3592647-pink-floyds-waters-backs-russia-calls-biden-a-war-criminal-over-ukraine/
Biden's potential or actual criminal behavior does not yet appear to include policy decisions regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war, though it may. Keeping Gitmo up and running and murdering families in drone strikes, on the other hand, seem a bit more than questionable.
Waters is right on the west's provocation of Russia by expanding NATO, though his timeline is off, and he also sort of rightly points out that Taiwan is not a sovereign country. I mean, Paraguay recognizes Taiwan as sovereign, so there's that.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on August 08, 2022, 09:48:20 AM
When he was a younger man, he would have despised anyone who thought that being rich means that one's opinion is necessarily important.
Money changes people.
Quote from: 71 dB on August 08, 2022, 09:50:34 AM
Money changes people.
Also, I pity the man who grows to become the person he despises.
I'm sad. Russia is cracking down on the phone calls that the Ukes intercept. I must have listened to 50 of them the past few months. Russian soldiers don't mince words when they talk to mothers, wives and girlfriends. I note also that sometimes they will say things like "we shouldn't talk about these things because the Ukrainians are listening" and then they keep talking about how their units have been wiped out and how they steal from villagers and kill them, and how Russian artillery is killing them and the commanders are drunk or go missing. Wow, it's great stuff!
Quote from: drogulus on August 08, 2022, 10:07:33 AM
I'm sad. Russia is cracking down on the phone calls that the Ukes intercept. I must have listened to 50 of them the past few months. Russian soldiers don't mince words when they talk to mothers, wives and girlfriends. I note also that sometimes they will say things like "we shouldn't talk about these things because the Ukrainians are listening" and then they keep talking about how their units have been wiped out and how they steal from villagers and kill them, and how Russian artillery is killing them and the commanders are drunk or go missing. Wow, it's great stuff!
Even better than The Apprentice!
Quote from: Todd on August 08, 2022, 09:49:10 AM
Waters is right on the west's provocation of Russia by expanding NATO, though his timeline is off, and he also sort of rightly points out that Taiwan is not a sovereign country. I mean, Paraguay recognizes Taiwan as sovereign, so there's that.
Is Palestine a state? Waters is a hypocrite. I see Israelis argue all the time that Palestinians didn't exist 2000 years ago.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on August 08, 2022, 09:34:34 AM
Kind looks like trolling, which some of us repeatedly encourage. He wouldn't drive the narrative if some of us weren't so ready to give him the wheel.
He makes arguments also, whether the style is abrasive or not, the arguments don't seem to me to be made just for the sake of provocation. I see a consistent way of thinking. I don't know that I agree with that or not but I can put these arguments objectively to test them out. Isn't it worth testing your thinking against an opposing view? You're saying the problem is that people take him seriously and try to engage the arguments? Is that it? Is that what we shouldn't be doing? Or have I misunderstood? Isn't an echo-chamber rather boring and doesn't it lead to weak thinking anyway? If the arguments for war are strong, they should be able to withstand such criticisms. To me, if you label something as trolling and argue it should be ignored, you're just arguing for an echo-chamber.
Quote from: milk on August 08, 2022, 05:23:02 PMIs Palestine a state?
Different topic, different potential consequences, but one can make such a comparison.
Quote from: milk on August 08, 2022, 05:23:02 PMTo me, if you label something as trolling and argue it should be ignored, you're just arguing for an echo-chamber.
There is a perfect inverse correlation between substance and use of the word troll or any of its derivatives.
Please stop conflating Taiwan/China, where for decades there were 2 rival governments claiming the same territory, with Ukraine/Russia, where the boundary between 2 countries was set during the period that both were part of the Soviet Union.
The issues are quite different.
A few updates:
The Ukrainian attack on the Russian airbase on Crimea today, not sabotage or accidents it seems (since for instance there were two large explosions occurring simulatenously in separate areas), suggests that they have now got the long-range missiles that can go up to 300 km, also making places like the Sevastopol naval base and possibly the Crimea Bridge vulnerable.
Some analysts are suggesting that all the hype about re-conquering Kherson, and the resulting Russian concentration there, is a decoy for an attack elsewhere, such as at Melitopol, where the Ukrainians getting access to the seashore would split the Russian zone into two, making logistics much more difficult for the invaders.
China's New Vassal
How the War in Ukraine Turned Moscow Into Beijing's Junior Partner (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-new-vassal?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=China%E2%80%99s%20New%20Vassal&utm_content=20220809&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
The concern that in a prolonged war more and more Ukrainians will be killed is legitimate, nay even admirable --- and I doubt there is any one of us who doesn't share it. Nevertheless, a school of thought seems to have developed whose GMG representative is Todd, which suggests that it really doesn't matter whether Ukraine is an independent state, a puppet state of Russia or even a Russian province, as long as Ukrainians are alive. Crudely expressed, better to be a living donkey than a dead lion. While the proposition has its merits and can certainly be argued for, it's not hard to see that, had it been consistently applied all throughout history, the world would have been a much worse place than it is now because every aggressive tyrant would have had their way unopposed. Liberty comes at a price and national liberty's price is sometimes blood. This is a lesson that history teaches us time and again.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 06:49:31 AMLiberty comes at a price and national liberty's price is sometimes blood.
It is easy to advocate spilling the blood of other people. And cheap.
Also, Ukrainian liberty is not necessary for American peace and prosperity.
Quote from: Todd on August 09, 2022, 06:53:11 AM
It is easy to advocate spilling the blood of other people. And cheap.
You speak as if the US forced the unwilling Ukrainian government and the reluctant Ukrainian people to fight the Russians. No, it's exactly the other way around: ever since the Russian invasion, Zelensky and his government, for better or worse the only legitimate, democratically elected representatives of the Ukrainian people, have been consistently and continuously asking for help and the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian people at large have been consistently and continuosuly fighting and opposing the Russian invaders.
QuoteAlso, Ukrainian liberty is not necessary for American peace and prosperity.
Why, of course, had Russia invaded Oregon, the Americans would have been entitled to fight, no matter that American lives would have been lost in the process, because the liberty of the US and the freedom of Americans are sacred. But Russia invaded Ukraine and you just expressed in plain English that for you the Ukrainians are second hand people because you don't care a fig about their liberty and freedom: they may be the slaves of Russia till Judgment Day, it's no concern of yours and it should be no concern of the US. They are not even entitled to ask for, and receive, help in their fight.Their peace and prosperity can be trampled under foot by anyone, they are not important. And this is actually valid for 90% of the nations in the world.
American exceptionalism in a nutshell.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 06:49:31 AM
The concern that in a prolonged war more and more Ukrainians will be killed is legitimate, nay even admirable --- and I doubt there is any one of us who doesn't share it. Nevertheless, a school of thought seems to have developed whose GMG representative is Todd, which suggests that it really doesn't matter whether Ukraine is an independent state, a puppet state of Russia or even a Russian province, as long as Ukrainians are alive. Crudely expressed, better to be a living donkey than a dead lion. While the proposition has its merits and can certainly be argued for, it's not hard to see that, had it been consistently applied all throughout history, the world would have been a much worse place than it is now because every aggressive tyrant would have had their way unopposed. Liberty comes at a price and national liberty's price is sometimes blood. This is a lesson that history teaches us time and again.
By Huggy Bear's logic, the American colonists should just have paid the damn Tea Tax.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on August 09, 2022, 07:37:24 AM
the American colonists should just have paid the damn Tea Tax.
The case can surely and rationally be made. They were not invaded, they were not required to give up their governing system(s), they were only required to pay a tax which I bet wasn't even ruinous to most, if not all, of them. They refused to pay it and as a result thousands of them died and the US was born. Was the death toll a price worth paying for that birth, Todd? Also, was France right in helping militarily the rebel colonies? After all, their independence from UK was not necessary for France's peace and prosperity.
Quote from: Todd on August 08, 2022, 09:49:10 AM
Yes, one can argue that countries close to Russia that have endured a history of Russian oppression may exhibit a rational fear of Russia. The farther away from Russia one gets, the less and less rational the fear becomes. Finally, for the US, there is no rational basis for Russophobia, and there never has been. The various bouts of Russophobia starting in the Wilson years, and waxing and waning since, have always been severe overreactions.
This is where people far removed from direct Russian threats have to assess the importance of confronting Russia in an effort to ostensibly protect small, weak countries prone to Russian domination. Irrational Russophobia is informing policy right now.
Interesting how you shoehorn Russophobia into
this discussion. Taking precautions, like joining regional defensive alliances against a known criminal state and bad actor, doesn't necessarily denote fear. It's just rational caution.
On the broader historical points: Hardliners on both sides of the US-Soviet rivalry maintained a symbiotic relationship of mutual antagonism because it politically and materially profited the fear-mongers and military-industrial interests on both sides. On the other hand, only idiots weren't afraid that missteps in this grotesque political theater might lead to nuclear annihilation. Your weird incomprehension on such points makes me wonder if you aren't in fact some sort of alien emissary from another galaxy trying to pass yourself off as human. Or weren't you around for the Cold War?
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 07:20:47 AMYou speak as if the US forced the unwilling Ukrainian government and the reluctant Ukrainian people to fight the Russians.
You misinterpreted what I wrote, so I will try again. Various folks from all around the world rely on romanticized notions of liberty and war as it pertains to Ukraine, which is very easy to do when other people do the dying.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 07:20:47 AMWhy, of course, had Russia invaded Oregon, the Americans would have been entitled to fight, no matter that American lives would have been lost in the process, because the liberty of the US and the freedom of Americans are sacred.
Sacred is not the correct word. American territorial integrity is a necessary condition for American peace and prosperity.
Also, Oregon is a very unlikely target for a hypothetical west coast invasion, unless for some reason Intel's fabs were a primary target. I would think a hypothetical west coast invasion would focus on California. I would expect the US military to react the same in either case. Actually, neither scenario is plausible, so I will sleep soundly knowing that your rhetoric is hollow.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 07:20:47 AMBut Russia invaded Ukraine and you just expressed in plain English that for you the Ukrainians are second hand people because you don't care a fig about their liberty and freedom: they may be the slaves of Russia till Judgment Day, it's no concern of yours and it should be no concern of the US. They are not even entitled to ask for, and receive, help in their fight.Their peace and prosperity can be trampled under foot by anyone, they are not important. And this is actually valid for 90% of the nations in the world.
The same applies to almost all other countries from an American standpoint. The same comparative, perceived indifference is common all over the world. The moral outrage exhibited over Ukraine is an artifact of Eurocentrism. Racism is also involved. There is no similar outrage on this forum, or anywhere else, regarding the fate of the people of Yemen or Syria, let alone African countries. There is no rational basis for considering Europeans more important than anyone else. I will say that Americans take precedence for Americans. The US federal government agrees.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 07:20:47 AMAmerican exceptionalism in a nutshell.
Incorrect.
Quote from: BasilValentine on August 09, 2022, 08:15:25 AM
Interesting how you shoehorn Russophobia into this discussion. Taking precautions, like joining regional defensive alliances against a known criminal state and bad actor, doesn't denote fear. It's just rational caution.
On the broader historical points: Hardliners on both sides of the US-Soviet rivalry maintained a symbiotic relationship of mutual antagonism because it politically profited the fear-mongers and military-industrial interests on both sides. On the other hand, only idiots were not afraid that missteps in this grotesque political theater could lead to nuclear annihilation. Your weird incomprehension on such points makes me wonder if you aren't in fact some sort of alien emissary from another galaxy trying to pass yourself off as human. Or weren't you around for the cold war?
What?
Crimea is under missile attack. Explosions are seen at an airbase. Also, the US has sent Ukraine missiles that can attack Russian SAM sites, which defend against planes and missiles.
"We've included a number of anti-radiation missiles that can be fired off of Ukrainian aircraft that can have effects on Russia radars and other things," Kahl told a news briefing, without specifying the exact type.
That's from WAPO, reporting on a DOD briefing.
I think Ukraine has the right of self defense regardless of who else benefits.
Quote from: BasilValentine on August 09, 2022, 08:15:25 AM
Taking precautions, like joining regional defensive alliances against a known criminal state and bad actor, doesn't necessarily denote fear. It's just rational caution.
My point exactly.
Quote from: drogulus on August 09, 2022, 08:29:09 AM
I think Ukraine has the right of self defense regardless of who else benefits.
You starry-eyed romantic!
The missile the US sent to Ukraine to attack the air defenses is the AGM-88 HARM. HARMs attack air defense radars (Anti Radiation Missile), rendering them blind. The H means high speed.
Quote from: Todd on August 09, 2022, 08:20:10 AM
You misinterpreted what I wrote, so I will try again. Various folks from all around the world rely on romanticized notions of liberty and war as it pertains to Ukraine, which is very easy to do when other people do the dying.
That would be correct if the other people did the dying unwillingly and reluctantly. When a people willingly, bravely and fearlessly fight for their freedom, they are to be commended and aided, not told to cease and desist.
QuoteAmerican territorial integrity is a necessary condition for American peace and prosperity.
Correct. Why then do you deny the same condition to Ukrainians?
QuoteAlso, Oregon is a very unlikely target for a hypothetical west coast invasion, unless for some reason Intel's fabs were a primary target. I would think a hypothetical west coast invasion would focus on California. I would expect the US military to react the same in either case. Actually, neither scenario is plausible, so I will sleep soundly knowing that your rhetoric is hollow.
I just love how you take rhetorical questions / figures of speech literally and refute them at length, while at the same time you don't even bother to respond, or respond in a mocking one-liner, to questions pertaining to real concerns.
QuoteThere is no similar outrage on this forum, or anywhere else, regarding the fate of the people of Yemen or Syria, let alone African countries.
Syria, Yemen and most, if not all, African wars are mostly cases of civil wars, if not inter-tribal wars. It's very difficult to ascertain which side is right and which one is wrong. If you asked any of the warring parties, they'd tell you they are right and all others are wrong except those who happen to momentarily be their allies.
In the Syrian case, though, it's precisely Russia that razed the city of Aleppo to the ground. Was that city on the short list to NATO membership, pray tell?
I'll give you Lybia --- a great and bloody blunder of both US and EU.
Quote from: drogulus on August 09, 2022, 08:29:09 AM
I think Ukraine has the right of self defense regardless of who else benefits.
Absolutely.
Quote from: Todd on August 09, 2022, 08:20:10 AM
What?
Read slowly. Think. You might learn something about Cold War politics.
Quote from: Todd on August 09, 2022, 08:20:10 AM
Various folks from all around the world rely on romanticized notions of liberty and war
Had it not been for romanticized notions of liberty and war, there'd have been no US. Just saying.
I know, I know, you'll reply :"Incorrect".
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on August 08, 2022, 09:48:20 AM
When he was a younger man, he would have despised anyone who thought that being rich means that one's opinion is necessarily important.
Not so sure about this.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 08:50:45 AMThat would be correct if the other people did the dying unwillingly and reluctantly. When a people willingly, bravely and fearlessly fight for their freedom, they are to be commended and aided, not told to cease and desist.
You are more convinced than I am about the willingness of the population to fight.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 08:50:45 AMWhy then do you deny the same condition to Ukrainians?
I have never done any such thing. They should do it without US support.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 08:50:45 AMI just love how you take rhetorical questions / figures of speech literally and refute them at length, while at the same time you don't even bother to respond, or respond in a mocking one-liner, to questions pertaining to real concerns.
The example you offered is detached from reality.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 08:50:45 AMSyria, Yemen and most, if not all, African wars are mostly cases of civil wars, if not inter-tribal wars. It's very difficult to ascertain which side is right and which one is wrong. If you asked any of the warring parties, they'd tell you they are right and all others are wrong except those who happen to momentarily be their allies.
Yemen has long been a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with significant regional implications, which given the region, has implications for the economic and strategic interests of many countries. Syria was, and remains, more than a civil war and pulled in a variety of powers, including the US, which illegally maintains a military presence there today and which committed war crimes when it destroyed Raqqa. (Perhaps Amnesty International is lying and/or is in the pocket of Assad and/or Putin, who knows. If you should have evidence indicating that, please share it.) The multiple conflicts in Africa are not quite so simplistic and free from interference as you imply, and reliance on the old chestnut "tribal" contains hints of racism. Don't feel bad, lots of people everywhere succumb to that approach. The US has been "engaged" with Sudan and now South Sudan for decades and has meddled in Congo for even longer, stretching back to the second world war. Indeed, the US has massively expanded its military engagement in the continent this century, first by establishing Africom, then by building a massive base in Djibouti, all the while engaging in various covert and military actions, typically while pursuing various anti-terrorism operations. This would imply that US intelligence agencies do have some knowledge, albeit incomplete, about various actors and motives and goals.
Even given the messiness in the region, why shouldn't the millions of dead people in Syria, Yemen, and African nations take precedence over Ukraine? More people have died, are dying, and will die. Your response demonstrates indifference.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 09:04:40 AMHad it not been for romanticized notions of liberty and war, there'd have been no US. Just saying.
That is a rather quaint view of the causes and consequences of the American Revolution.
Quote from: BasilValentine on August 09, 2022, 09:01:03 AM
Read slowly. Think. You might learn something about Cold War politics.
Huh?
Now I hear that the attack was from a Uke manufactured missile. That's what the Ukes are saying.
Such a missile would most likely be the Neptune. Given the range of the Neptune and the distance to Ukrainian held territory this is certainly a possible means to attack the base.
Quote from: Herman on August 09, 2022, 09:34:35 AM
Not so sure about this.
It's not a hill I'd die on.
Quote from: Todd on August 09, 2022, 09:42:57 AM
You are more convinced than I am about the willingness of the population to fight.
Maybe not so much to fight as in armed fight (which is a job for professional soldiers anyway) but they certainly resent the Russian occupation, despise the Russian invaders and lose no opportunity to show it.
Quotereliance on the old chestnut "tribal" contains hints of racism. Don't feel bad]
I can assure you I won't lose my sleep over it.
QuoteEven given the messiness in the region, why shouldn't the millions of dead people in Syria, Yemen, and African nations take precedence over Ukraine? More people have died, are dying, and will die. Your response demonstrates indifference.
As different from your countless posts on the topic, expressing genuine concern and outrage. As in, the fate of Syria, Yemen or [insert African nation] is of no import to American peace and prosperity.
QuoteThat is a rather quaint view of the causes and consequences of the American Revolution.
See Karl's post above,. Why don't you just paid the damn Tea Tax, shut up and get over it? You'd have spared the lives of thousands of American colonists and British soldiers. Why so much fuss and kerfuffle about an effing tax that all other British subjects paid without ever uttering the slightest protest? What on earth was so special about the American colonies that they not only claimed they should be exempted from it, they even fought a bloody war over not paying it?
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 10:05:19 AMMaybe not so much to fight as in armed fight (which is a job for professional soldiers anyway) but they certainly resent the Russian occupation, despise the Russian invaders and lose no opportunity to show it.
This suggests a political settlement, arrived at with some haste, is far preferable to continuing support for the war.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 10:05:19 AMAs different from your countless posts on the topic, expressing genuine concern and outrage.
Given your newly professed indifference, I trust you will henceforth shed any hint of moralizing.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 10:05:19 AMWhy don't you just paid the damn Tea Tax, shut up and get over it?
I shall leave it to you to find the appropriate history or histories of the American Revolution that go into more detail.
Quote from: Todd on August 09, 2022, 10:13:07 AM
This suggests a political settlement, arrived at with some haste, is far preferable to continuing support for the war.
The legitimate, uncontested representatives of the Ukrainians claim they want all their territory back, including Crimea fIf you are aware of any Ukrainian party or popular movement that claims otherwise, please make the case). The Russians wants the current Ukrainian government to go and the next one to acquiesce to Russian demands.
Good luck in finding, or brokering, a political settlement, arrived at with some haste.
QuoteGiven your newly professed indifference,
Which is entirely a figment of your imagination.
QuoteI trust you will henceforth shed any hint of moralizing.
Given that you are the only one here that pretends to care about Ukrainian lives being lost in a protracted war, while at the same time professing total indifference about the fate of Ukraine, I trust all other GMGers will see to what degree the above moralizing phrase sounds highly (auto-) ironic.
QuoteI shall leave it to you to find the appropriate history or histories of the American Revolution that go into more detail.
The best I could find yet has been
Alfred Jay Nock's
Our Enemy the State and it covers the one and only single detail that counts: greed. The FF were as keen to establish a genuinely democratic and liberal state with equality and justice for all as I am to reestablish the Russian hegemony over Romania. All they wanted was to secure their privileges and gains against both British and domestic real or perceived enemies. The rest is romanticizing. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 10:30:39 AMGood luck in finding, or brokering, a political settlement, arrived at with some haste.
The US can cease support for the war and apply political and economic pressure - that is, use coercion - to force Ukraine to bargain. For now, the US is choosing another policy, and for reasons that are not solely focused on what is good for Ukraine.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 10:30:39 AMGiven that you are the only one here that pretends to care about Ukrainian lives being lost in a protracted war
My indifference to the fate of Ukraine because of its irrelevance and my expressed preference for limiting US interventionism and accompanying squandering of resources leads me to favor a political settlement, which would end the war more quickly and result in fewer excess deaths. That's a spillover benefit, not a primary goal.
A good number of people who profess to care very much about Ukraine favor policies that will result in more dead Ukrainians and even more extensive physical devastation of the country. It's kind of like burning down the village to save it.
Breaking: President Biden has signed the official paperwork for U.S. approval of Finland and Sweden to join NATO.
Quote from: drogulus on August 09, 2022, 09:51:53 AM
Now I hear that the attack was from a Uke manufactured missile. That's what the Ukes are saying.
Such a missile would most likely be the Neptune. Given the range of the Neptune and the distance to Ukrainian held territory this is certainly a possible means to attack the base.
Some suggest Lockheed Martin MGM-140, with a 90% probability. Their range is said to be 300 km.
Quote from: Todd on August 09, 2022, 11:03:17 AM
The US can cease support for the war and apply political and economic pressure - that is, use coercion - to force Ukraine to bargain.
Kind of like coercing the victim into acquiescing to the aggressor's demands. Vicious and wicked by any standards, even the hypocritical FF ones. ;D
U.S. authorizes largest-yet military package to Ukraine (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/08/largest-military-package-ukraine-00050368)
The United States has authorized its largest delivery yet of military aid to Ukraine, the Pentagon announced Monday — a $1 billion package of ammunition, weapons and equipment.
The package specifically includes ammunition for artillery rocket systems, munitions for surface-to-air missile systems, explosives, armored medical vehicles and medical supplies, according to a press release from Acting Pentagon Press Secretary Todd Breasseale.
The article mentions:
The Department of Defense has estimated Russia has had 70,000 to 80,000 killed or wounded in less than six months. Russian President Vladimir Putin drew international condemnation when he invaded Ukraine in late February.
That's the largest estimate I've seen, but it's significant because it comes from the DOD. No wonder Putin is recruiting prisoners. I'm sure they'll be more effective than the elite units that have been decimated.
Dear God, linking the question of Ukrainian liberty to American prosperity has to be some of the most self-centred shit you could ever hope to see.
There are decades of Ukrainian political history centred around the degree to which Ukraine wants to be independent of Russia. That's the issue.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 11:17:25 AM
Kind of like coercing the victim into acquiescing to the aggressor's demands. Vicious and wicked by any standards, even the hypocritical FF ones. ;D
Todd is inspired by mafia protection rackets. Nice place you've got here. It would be a shame if anything happened to it.
There's a traffic jam at the Kerch bridge leaving Crimea. The vacationers are going home. Bye bye.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 06:49:31 AM
The concern that in a prolonged war more and more Ukrainians will be killed is legitimate, nay even admirable --- and I doubt there is any one of us who doesn't share it. Nevertheless, a school of thought seems to have developed whose GMG representative is Todd, which suggests that it really doesn't matter whether Ukraine is an independent state, a puppet state of Russia or even a Russian province, as long as Ukrainians are alive. Crudely expressed, better to be a living donkey than a dead lion. While the proposition has its merits and can certainly be argued for, it's not hard to see that, had it been consistently applied all throughout history, the world would have been a much worse place than it is now because every aggressive tyrant would have had their way unopposed. Liberty comes at a price and national liberty's price is sometimes blood. This is a lesson that history teaches us time and again.
I'm not in that place. I only see Todd with the non-interventionist view, not quite a school of thought HERE. I'm not sure what I think for the big picture. I'd like to see the Ukraine free and democratic but I also think Todd makes a thought-provoking case, especially when one considers American interventions over the last 70 years. At least if the U.S. is going to spend hundreds of billions on that particular war (and hundreds of billions more on the cost of rebuilding) and the fight is going to be long and costly in terms of human life, it should overcome his arguments resoundingly. How can we put this question in terms of the greater good? Maybe now Russia realizes it cannot do anything it wants and it would be a good time to reach some sort of settlement? What would Carter do? Not President Carter, Carter-Center Carter. I'd like to ask what are the different scenarios people see happening - like, maybe, what are the top five likeliest outcomes of this? Best case, worst case?
I think I used to be very "liberal" and willing to express confident beliefs along those lines. Now I just don't know the right answers but I am interested in the arguments. I can be persuaded. I definitely see Russia and China as bad actors in the world (I'd still like to see a global politics thread here).
But what are we to make of this liberal fever dream:
We're for freedom of speech everywhere. We're for freedom to worship everywhere. We're for freedom to learn... for everybody. And because, in our time, you can build a bomb in your country and bring it to my country, what goes on in you country is very much my business. And so we are for freedom from tyranny everywhere, whether in the guise of political oppression, Toby, or economic slavery, Josh, or religious fanaticism, C.J. That most fundamental idea cannot be met with merely our support. It has to be met with our strength. Diplomatically, economically, materially. And if Pharaoh still don't free the slaves, then he gets the plagues, or my cavalry, whichever gets there first. The USTR will go crazy and say that we're not considering global trade. Committee members will go crazy and say I haven't consulted enough. And the Arab world will just go indiscriminately crazy. No country has ever had a doctrine of intervention when only humanitarian interests were at stake. That streaks going to end Sunday at noon. So, if you're on board with this, what I need you to do...
—President Bartlet
It's not simply about non-intervention, but on the basis for non-intervention.
Todd's arguments are relentlessly about what is directly in it for Americans. There seems to be no assessment at all about whether intervention or non-intervention is in the interests of allies (and therefore no insight into what makes allies STAY allies), and certainly no consideration of how Ukraine has asked for assistance.
Partly I suspect this is because Todd believes the USA will never itself need the assistance of other countries in any form. So there is no danger of such blatant selfishness having consequences in the future.
Quote from: Madiel on August 09, 2022, 08:18:01 PM
It's not simply about non-intervention, but on the basis for non-intervention.
Todd's arguments are relentlessly about what is directly in it for Americans. There seems to be no assessment at all about whether intervention or non-intervention is in the interests of allies (and therefore no insight into what makes allies STAY allies), and certainly no consideration of how Ukraine has asked for assistance.
Partly I suspect this is because Todd believes the USA will never itself need the assistance of other countries in any form. So there is no danger of such blatant selfishness having consequences in the future.
Yes I think it's interesting and important to ask not only what's in it for any given country that wants to intervene militarily in conflicts or assist allies, but also how should countries ultimately act in the world in order to achieve what's best for overall human flourishing (or even transcendence if one believes in such a thing).
I'm trying to work out Fermi's paradox here as well. Maybe intelligent life is just destined to destroy itself every time. What is the way out of that? Things feel pretty grim lately with Russia and China (and my sister keeps trying to convince my 80-something-year old parents that the 1/6 rioters were lured into the Capitol by ANTIFA crisis actors).
But then are we just not helping African peoples more because we think they can never do anything for us? But I understand the point that the Ukraine's proximity to Russia might make it more relevant in some way. Being where I'm situated in the world, I do worry that China is a worse problem. If China exerts itself, there are so many countries around here that cannot accept its threatening behavior and the way it goes at the territories and sea lanes of everybody. Maybe people here see Russia in the same light, I don't know.
Quote from: milk on August 09, 2022, 09:00:40 PM
Being where I'm situated in the world, I do worry that China is a worse problem. If China exerts itself, there are so many countries around here that cannot accept its threatening behavior and the way it goes at the territories and sea lanes of everybody. Maybe people here see Russia in the same light, I don't know.
From a European perspective, that's definitely how it feels.... Just ask Sweden and Finland.
And Russia goes further with Ukraine - invading a sovereign independent country. For the 2nd time. And this time a full assault aimed at total subjugation, not some limited territorial claims.
Taiwan's independence is
de facto. It is not recognised as an independent state by most countries, including the US, and is not a member of the UN. I think China will invade shortly. Don't mistake the recent exercises as posturing - these were real dress rehearsals. China conveniently used the Pelosi visit as a pretext, pretending this to be mere sabre ratling. This was prepared long time in advance.
In case of an invasion of Taiwan, I don't see military intervention by the US as a real possibility. I even don't see US arms supplies happening, at least not openly. And that is
if Taiwan manages not to be overrun instantly. Under international law, not that anyone cares much anymore, this would be a internal, domestic matter.
China is a more dangerous and more powerful adversary than Russia, and it will use the strategic and legal ambiguity surrounding the Taiwan issue to its advantage. Naturally the West will discuss sanctions against China, but how much economic leverage is left after the conflict with Russia, in the midst of an energy crisis and with a global recession looming? ::)
China would be smart to move now, and use Taiwan as an springboard for further expansion.
On the other hand, if China decides not to invade, it will be for economic reasons. It wouldn't want to destroy its own economy, or the economic significance of Taiwan.
Quote from: Que on August 09, 2022, 09:57:46 PM
From a European perspective, that's definitely how it feels.... Just ask Sweden and Finland.
And Russia goes further with Ukraine - invading a sovereign independent country. For the 2nd time. And this time a full assault aimed at total subjugation, not some limited territorial claims.
Taiwan's independence is de facto. It is not recognised as an independent state by most countries, including the US, and is not a member of the UN. I think China will invade shortly. Don't mistake the recent exercises as posturing - these were real dress rehearsals. China conveniently used the Pelosi visit as a pretext, pretending this to be mere sabre ratling. This was prepared long time in advance.
In case of an invasion of Taiwan, I don't see military intervention by the US as a real possibility. I even don't see US arms supplies happening, at least not openly. And that is if Taiwan manages not to be overrun instantly. Under international law, not that anyone cares much anymore, this would be a internal, domestic matter.
China is a more dangerous and more powerful adversary than Russia, and it will use the strategic and legal ambiguity surrounding the Taiwan issue to its advantage. Naturally the West will discuss sanctions against China, but how much economic leverage is left after the conflict with Russia, in the midst of an energy crisis and with a global recession looming? ::)
China would be smart to move now, and use Taiwan as an springboard for further expansion.
On the other hand, if China decides not to invade, it will be for economic reasons. It wouldn't want to destroy its own economy, or the economic significance of Taiwan.
Some say the Pelosi visit was a provocation Jinping couldn't ignore being that he's going for an unprecedented 3rd term as party leader. I hope you're wrong that this is coming soon. After all the bluster from Dems and Repubs alike can they really do nothing if China invades? They've been saying otherwise for quite a while. Taiwan has been preparing for decades; will it really just fold like an old card? What do the Japanese bureaucrats who run the show in Japan really want? And every other country that constantly buts heads with China in E. SE. and S. Asia? China pushes everybody in the neighborhood around (I know: they'll say the same about the U.S.); can everybody live with an even more imperious China? The Chinese leadership has a collective chip on its shoulder. But on the other hand, we don't want WWIII. No. No we don't.
Quote from: Florestan on August 09, 2022, 08:50:45 AM
Syria, Yemen and most, if not all, African wars are mostly cases of civil wars, if not inter-tribal wars.
Worth noting that the war in Ukraine started out as a civil war as well, back in 2014. At the time, the residents of the Donbas region (and Crimea) supported Russia and wished for closer ties with it, and broke away from Ukraine for that reason. This desire was not engineered by Russia but rather came about as a natural result of factors of language, ethnicity and history (with these areas only having become part of Ukraine in the 20th century.)
Of course, arguably, one could describe the presence of pro- and anti-Russian factions within Ukrainian civil society as a cold proxy war between Russia and the EU that started in 1991, and turned hot in 2014. The situation only gradually ramped up from civil war/proxy war to full-scale invasion as Russia took steps to eliminate the existing leadership and civil society in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, such as they were, and replace them with its own appointees in 2014-2017, while EU countries and the USA trained and provisioned the Ukrainian army under Poroshenko (and then Zelensky) to become the second-largest in Europe by some measures. Civil wars tend not to stay civil for very long.
Quote from: Que on August 09, 2022, 09:57:46 PM
China is a more dangerous and more powerful adversary than Russia,
China exerts power economically, rather than militarily. I get that war makes for good theatre and people want to see stuff blowing up; I haven't seen any evidence that China actually
does that kind of thing, rather than simply making other countries sufficiently dependent on it that war becomes unnecessary.
Quote from: amw on August 09, 2022, 11:20:33 PM
Worth noting that the war in Ukraine started out as a civil war as well, back in 2014. At the time, the residents of the Donbas region (and Crimea) supported Russia and wished for closer ties with it, and broke away from Ukraine for that reason. This desire was not engineered by Russia but rather came about as a natural result of factors of language, ethnicity and history (with these areas only having become part of Ukraine in the 20th century.)
Of course, arguably, one could describe the presence of pro- and anti-Russian factions within Ukrainian civil society as a cold proxy war between Russia and the EU that started in 1991, and turned hot in 2014. The situation only gradually ramped up from civil war/proxy war to full-scale invasion as Russia took steps to eliminate the existing leadership and civil society in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, such as they were, and replace them with its own appointees in 2014-2017 (...)
It's sad that this Russian tale is repeated, given for example earlier votes in those areas, and that Girkin, the former Defense Minister of Donetsk, himself stated that without his expedition force from Russia, the demonstrations in the Eastern provinces would have fizzled out quickly and there would have been only a handful of casualties, since they didn't have enough local support. Girkin was also an important force in the professional take-over of Crimea before that. He is allegedly 'former FSB', but his activities have been unthinkable without support from the authorities, and recently, it has been revealed that he still travels a lot in Russia, say by airlines, with aliases, likewise impossible without support from the FSB. He is a Russian imperialist and publicly wants the Russian army to conquer all of Ukraine, even Lviv, with massive use of force, to annihilate Ukraine.
It is also worth noting when talking about "civil wars" in other parts of the world besides Europe that we are often talking about borders that were imposed by Europeans with absolutely no regard to local history.
Having said that, the Kenyan ambassador to the UN made an absolutely beautiful speech about this issue when discussing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I will see if I can dig it up again (maybe it was shared here at the time?)
Edit: actually it was just before the invasion when Russia recognised the breakaway regions. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jwDWxyLVBxk
Quote from: milk on August 09, 2022, 09:00:40 PMYes I think it's interesting and important to ask not only what's in it for any given country that wants to intervene militarily in conflicts or assist allies,
Most of America's allies act in bad faith. This is a particular problem with Europeans. They have agreed to devote 2% of GDP to defense, but almost none do. This is objective, verifiable fact. These same countries then demand US action. They basically act like entitled corporate welfare recipients.
There is a strong probability that the US will require some type of assistance from allies in future conflicts, but that is rather different than what gets discussed now. The structure of NATO after the addition of Germany was entirely sufficient to meet American security interests. Indeed, NATO could have been reduced in size or dissolved and replaced with other, smaller scale security arrangements and US security interests could have been met while also meeting the security interests of allies that matter. The expansion of NATO was and remains aggressive and established the conditions that led to war. In other words, NATO failed. There have been ample warnings for decades against NATO expansion, and there has never been a substantive public debate about US interests and commitments as NATO expanded. The UK, France, Germany, Turkey, they are much more important than states like the Baltic countries or the prospective new members. The NATO expansion that began in the late 90s is all cost and no benefit, now or in the future, when considering real world economics and geography. Further expansion leads to greater tension, which is nearly the exact opposite of stability and peace. Only war is worse. As we see now.
Quote from: Que on August 09, 2022, 09:57:46 PMChina is a more dangerous and more powerful adversary than Russia
First, there is already recession in parts of the world. The US has experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, though the NBER has not officially called a recession. Misleading unemployment numbers - the labor force participation rate in the US is still below pre-pandemic levels, which artificially lowers the U3 figure - is one of the well-known reasons for not calling a recession, but any material delay in announcing a recession reduces the credibility of the NBER, which is a shame. Other negative signs in the US right now include increasing credit card debt and a falling savings rate.
China is more powerful than Russia, but not more dangerous overall, at least yet, because its nuclear arsenal is much smaller and does not have the same deterrent effect. Identifying China as a greater threat underlies the fundamentally misguided nature of NATO expansion and of Eurocentrism generally. The challenge - not threat, not yet - China poses does require a pivot to Asia for the US in terms of primary geopolitical focus. Obama tried to do it. Trump did it a bit. Biden is doing it a bit. It will need to continue. The overtly hostile tone of many discussions and even legislative actions - some legislation explicitly targets China - is not a good sign for the future. Even with that, focusing on Europe is a distraction. The US has limited resources and can do a lot, but there are limits.
There is much saber rattling now, but Chinese leadership strikes me as more patient. China could attack Taiwan now, but if it waits until the early- to mid-2030s, then its navy, in particular, will be in a better position, when combined with other weapons systems, to defeat the US navy and to allow for a successful invasion. Now that is less certain, though the cost will be high to Taiwan and the US if there is a war soon.
What-If DC War Game Maps Huge Toll of a Future US-China War Over Taiwan
A think-tank exercise with former Pentagon officials foresees grim results. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/what-if-war-game-for-a-us-china-conflict-sees-a-heavy-toll)
Quote from: Tony Capaccio"The results are showing that under most — though not all — scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion," said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where the war games are being held. "However, the cost will be very high to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy and to US forces in the Pacific."
Quote from: milk on August 09, 2022, 11:20:26 PMcan everybody live with an even more imperious China?
They will have to. It really is that simple.
I saw the first pic taken from the ground at the Crimean air base, showing the wreck of a plane (identified as a SU-24). The Ukes claim 9 planes were destroyed. They also say the attack was carried out by special forces. I understand this to mean infiltrators, perhaps assisted by locals.
Ah, I googled SU-24 and yes, that's the destroyed plane.
Quote from: drogulus on August 10, 2022, 08:17:22 AM
I saw the first pic taken from the ground at the Crimean air base, showing the wreck of a plane (identified as a SU-24). The Ukes claim 9 planes were destroyed. They also say the attack was carried out by special forces. I understand this to mean infiltrators, perhaps assisted by locals.
Ah, I googled SU-24 and yes, that's the destroyed plane.
Likely more - several dozens of airplanes were parked there, as shown by satellite photos hours before, and posted pictures now show damage to cars and housing blocks far away from the airbase. New satellite photos tomorow might indicate more, but obviously there's been a lot of 'cleaning up' in the meanwhile.
One thing the US can do, and perhaps has done, is to discourage Ukraine from invading Russia. However, such a move might cause Russia to embrace the idea of negotiations. All it would take would be a small bit of territory just beyond the border. Both combatants understand the value of facts on the ground, and I don't see why the Ukes can't adopt the same stance as the Russians.
Russia is attacking the nuclear power plant it occupies. If Russia can't have it, they'll destroy it. I guess this is Russian for "negotiation".
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 09, 2022, 06:13:45 AM
A few updates:
The Ukrainian attack on the Russian airbase on Crimea today, not sabotage or accidents it seems (since for instance there were two large explosions occurring simulatenously in separate areas), suggests that they have now got the long-range missiles that can go up to 300 km, also making places like the Sevastopol naval base and possibly the Crimea Bridge vulnerable.
Some analysts are suggesting that all the hype about re-conquering Kherson, and the resulting Russian concentration there, is a decoy for an attack elsewhere, such as at Melitopol, where the Ukrainians getting access to the seashore would split the Russian zone into two, making logistics much more difficult for the invaders.
Apparently the Ukrainians are now attacking Chongar, 160 km from the front line, that has one of only three bridge connections from the north (in this case near Melitopol), into Crimea. But the attack didn't hit the bridge itself. Some think that the attack was about Russian army stock there, that had been verified recently, not the bridge.
Also, the reports about Russians fleeing Crimea, both tourists and people who were given confiscated houses there after 2014, are too many to be merely propaganda. If the Chongar bridge will be attacked (there are big explosion clouds), this will cause further concern among Russians, including troops of course.
Ukraine today repeats statements about taking back Crimea by military means, and the taking out of the Crimea bridge being necessary for that.
Somebody videoed the traffic jam at the bridge. That's what I saw.
(https://i.imgur.com/J1GE0pL.png)
Chongar is the red thingy.
Crimea is no longer an effective base from which to support the Russian southern front, as it was in the early phase of the war.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on August 09, 2022, 07:37:24 AM
By Huggy Bear's logic, the American colonists should just have paid the damn Tea Tax.
Yes. If The Colonies had not rebelled against the tea tax we might still be slaves of England, just like Canada. ::)
Quote from: drogulus on August 10, 2022, 10:01:33 AM
Somebody videoed the traffic jam at the bridge. That's what I saw.
(...)
Yes, there are several such videos, and one with a Russian, youtubing family, who started doing weekly features of their life one week before the invasion, now with a report from driving in the Crimea bridge queues, the woman starting to cry because their wonderful stay in Crimea is over prematurely. Not a word in their reports about the war, land theft or atrocities next door though.
https://www.youtube.com/v/tt1SQrWafOE
"It was like we were living at home"
Yeah, but you weren't. Bye bye.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 10, 2022, 09:05:19 AM
Likely more - several dozens of airplanes were parked there, as shown by satellite photos hours before, and posted pictures now show damage to cars and housing blocks far away from the airbase. New satellite photos tomorow might indicate more, but obviously there's been a lot of 'cleaning up' in the meanwhile.
Bellingcat's research including newest satellite photos now confirms many planes (between 11 and 15) and buildings destroyed. I can't post links these days, but it's Toler and Higgins tweet series, from Bellingcat. Also Petri Makela.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 10, 2022, 10:13:52 AM
Yes. If The Colonies had not rebelled against the tea tax we might still be slaves of England, just like Canada. ::)
Further underscoring the existential threat to Ukrainians.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 10, 2022, 10:13:52 AM
Yes. If The Colonies had not rebelled against the tea tax we might still be slaves of England, just like Canada. ::)
Hey, there's a whole prison colony over here that might owe its existence to your rebellion.
And now it's us that get to beat the English at their own sports, you went and invented different ones.
Quote from: Madiel on August 10, 2022, 01:38:14 PM
Hey, there's a whole prison colony over here that might owe its existence to your rebellion.
And now it's us that get to beat the English at their own sports, you went and invented different ones.
We're tricky, sometimes...
Quote from: drogulus on August 10, 2022, 09:07:33 AM
One thing the US can do, and perhaps has done, is to discourage Ukraine from invading Russia. However, such a move might cause Russia to embrace the idea of negotiations. All it would take would be a small bit of territory just beyond the border. Both combatants understand the value of facts on the ground, and I don't see why the Ukes can't adopt the same stance as the Russians.
Russia is attacking the nuclear power plant it occupies. If Russia can't have it, they'll destroy it. I guess this is Russian for "negotiation".
Ukraine should be striking Russian military assets within Russian borders, wherever possible.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 10, 2022, 11:42:42 AM
Bellingcat's research including newest satellite photos now confirms many planes (between 11 and 15) and buildings destroyed. I can't post links these days, but it's Toler and Higgins tweet series, from Bellingcat. Also Petri Makela.
This will help:
https://www.youtube.com/v/LBpzd1zJtH4
There has been an attack with as many as 8 explosions at an airbase in Belarus.
No one knows who did it, right? Maybe it was 8 accidents, like the 3 accidents in Crimea.
On further consideration, a Russian false flag operation is not out of the question. Ukraine doesn't want Belorussian intervention and Russia is desperate for it.
If there is no serious damage to Russian planes or other vital equipment that would be suspicious. Another factor would be parts from US missiles paraded before cameras. That would clinch it. Ukraine would not violate the restriction placed on them by the US, which is to only use such weapons inside Ukraine.
Quote from: drogulus on August 10, 2022, 06:57:31 PM
There has been an attack with as many as 8 explosions at an airbase in Belarus.
No one knows who did it, right? Maybe it was 8 accidents, like the 3 accidents in Crimea.
Interesting. I'm thinking it's a Russian ( or Belarusian) false-flag op to give the Belarus president popular support for offering additional aid to the Russians.
Quote from: LKB on August 10, 2022, 07:11:42 PM
Interesting. I'm thinking it's a Russian ( or Belarusian) false-flag op to give the Belarus president popular support for offering additional aid to the Russians.
The official Belarus explanation about the explosions seems to be that it was a 'fire'.
Ukraine is systematically taking out Russian ammunition deposits, air force power, air defenses, and special military items that are difficult or impossible to replace. Plus some strategic infrastructure. It's a strategy that will make an oncoming offensive easier, potentially enclose weakened Russian units in traps, and also strengthen the Ukrainian negotiation positions.
Not disclosing what type of weapons that were used is meant to cause extra confusion in the Russian military, whose air defense capabilities already appear poor.
The UK is now delivering a further series of HIMARS-like weapons, but able to fire twice the number of missiles per round.
An international conference today in Copenhagen is meant to coordinate Western arms and economical government donations from 20 countries.
Quote from: LKB on August 10, 2022, 07:11:42 PM
Interesting. I'm thinking it's a Russian ( or Belarusian) false-flag op to give the Belarus president popular support for offering additional aid to the Russians.
If you have to choose between a stuff-up and a conspiracy, it's usually a stuff-up. At least in the public sector.
Quote from: Madiel on August 11, 2022, 06:00:47 AM
If you have to choose between a stuff-up and a conspiracy, it's usually a stuff-up. At least in the public sector.
Generally yes, however Russia is employing the false flag gambit repeatedly in this war.
Ukraine Brutally Trolls Weeping Russian Tourists Fleeing Crimea With Bananarama Video (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-brutally-trolls-weeping-russian-tourists-fleeing-crimea-with-bananarama-video?ref=home)
(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
In HARMs way
The Ukes are mounting US AGM 88 missiles on MIG 29s, and they have attacked Russian SAM radars with them. This is a very uh oh thing, as SAMs are useless when the radars are destroyed.
Quote from: drogulus on August 11, 2022, 06:52:12 AM
Ukraine Brutally Trolls Weeping Russian Tourists Fleeing Crimea With Bananarama Video (https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-brutally-trolls-weeping-russian-tourists-fleeing-crimea-with-bananarama-video?ref=home)
(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
There's another humorous aspect to this for me. The strike against the airbase was executed with surgical precision, and were they ready to claim responsibility, the Ukrainians could have added "Don't worry.
Our soldiers aren't incompetent enough to endanger civilians.
Why don't the Russian tourists apply for refugee status? Sure, they might not be accepted but at least it's worth a shot.
Quote from: BasilValentine on August 11, 2022, 08:49:37 AM
There's another humorous aspect to this for me. The strike against the airbase was executed with surgical precision, and were they ready to claim responsibility, the Ukrainians could have added "Don't worry. Our soldiers aren't incompetent enough to endanger civilians.
It might be an extraordinarily rude awakening for the Russians if Ukranian pilots wind up with western aircraft.
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022/07/21/ukraine-says-its-air-force-needs-western-fighter-jets-and-the-us-is-preparing-to-help/
Quote from: drogulus on August 11, 2022, 11:48:30 AM
Why don't the Russian tourists apply for refugee status? Sure, they might not be accepted but at least it's worth a shot.
Numbers are limited, but doubled this year in DK, for example. I guess that if seeking asylum, it's a goodbye to the Motherland, possibly for decades, or maybe forever.
That's one of the problems with say implementing a complete visa ban for Russians from the EU, which is now being discussed; how would politically active people or asylum seekers still have a reasonable range of options to get away ... besides the principal question of the individual's alleged share of the collective guilt, in the actions of a dictatorship, that would partly be implied in such a ban.
Good point.
This is wholly Putin's war, and the Russians are paying for it with their sons/ fathers/ brothers etc. They can be imprisoned for objecting, criticizing the Russian military or questioning Putin himself.
War results in victims both direct and indirect, and to hold the Russian population generally accountable to any extent would be a great wrong.
I like Russians and would like to see them come to the US. I'd be willing to accommodate Russians and Ukrainians, lots of them.
HARMs II, The Adventure Continues
I checked in with Cap & Co. where they were discussing how AGM 88s could be used by ancient MIGs. One of the crew (it sounded like Damp) mused that some of these planes made their way to the US for mods to enable the use of the missiles. He even said out loud "Skunk Works"! Yeow! That's like the Vatican!!
(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51BrldjH1hL._AC_.jpg)
Quote from: LKB on August 11, 2022, 12:44:01 PM
This is wholly Putin's war, and the Russians are paying for it with their sons/ fathers/ brothers etc. They can be imprisoned for objecting, criticizing the Russian military or questioning Putin himself.
One of the issues being his refusal to actually call it a "war". There's a media report here today that Russia is struggling for troops a bit, but also that one of the reasons that's happening is Putin resisting having a full mobilisation of his forces, because it would be unpopular within Russia. You can't keep pretending you're just having an "operation" once the whole army is involved.
And with the attack on that airbase in the Crimea, those vacationing Russians who fled will have a story to tell, one which probably won't be compatible with Putin's fiction.
Then again, those folks might be welcomed home by the FSB, who will thoughtfully provide an approved account to be used in explaining their truncated trips to interested parties. ::)
Quote from: Madiel on August 12, 2022, 05:24:39 AM
One of the issues being his refusal to actually call it a "war". There's a media report here today that Russia is struggling for troops a bit, but also that one of the reasons that's happening is Putin resisting having a full mobilisation of his forces, because it would be unpopular within Russia. You can't keep pretending you're just having an "operation" once the whole army is involved.
'A bit of a problem' including offering convicts, also murderers, the possibility to be released and get money for participating in the war (apparently 1500 so far); and mercenary groups like Wagner being finally recognised as military groups that also participate officially, besides just doing the other dirty or covert jobs they've specialized in before.
Overall, the Russian losses and soldiers have very much been from the outer, poorer provinces - another means of trying to keep the middle or well-off classes somewhat less troubled by the war.
Yes, the offer to convicts was part of the story I was reading.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 11, 2022, 12:09:58 PM
That's one of the problems with say implementing a complete visa ban for Russians from the EU, which is now being discussed; how would politically active people or asylum seekers still have a reasonable range of options to get away ... besides the principal question of the individual's alleged share of the collective guilt, in the actions of a dictatorship, that would partly be implied in such a ban.
I'm not sure is this an issue of collective
guilt, in myopinion more a question of collective
awareness.
I totally get the unease with the
Russian elite - because ordinary Russians don't go to Western countries for vacationing or shopping - pretending that it is business as usual. Isn't disculpating shoulder shrugging a little bit too easy?
Those looking for asylum can go to any Western embassy.
The asylum process seems to be diverse. Apparently, on average, only 1/5 of Russians seeking asylum in the EU in 2021 were approved (and 0 in Denmark), but conditions might be different for 2022, with more tolerance. However, for example, most Chechens seeking asylum would actually make the trip to EU and seek asylum there. Also, a good deal of Russians will get a visa firstly, valid for only 90 days, and then seek asylum or citizenship afterwards.
The exact numbers in the exodus is unknown, but it is certainly above 200,000 - 300,000 - some are suggesting of which maybe 15,000 millionnaires, who often just seek a less controlled life abroad.
EDIT: I'd assume Western embassies in Russia are under surveillance.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 13, 2022, 08:23:14 AM
The exact numbers in the exodus is unknown, but it is certainly above 200,000 - 300,000 - some are suggesting of which maybe 15,000 millionnaires, who often just seek a less controlled life abroad.
That's a large number, more than I expected!
Quote from: Que on August 13, 2022, 08:57:09 AM
That's a large number, more than I expected!
Yeah, but it's complicated, because some are also just off to work etc. There are better sources and more detailed attempts at clarification, but I can't post links or research much in depth these days.
Orbán has used his "special relationship" with the Kremlin to Hungary's advantage:
"Hungary says Russia has started delivering additional gas to the country following a July visit to Moscow by its foreign minister.
Hungary's foreign ministry said on Saturday that trade negotiations with Moscow "led to an agreement", resulting in Russia's Gazprom starting to deliver "above the already contracted quantities" on Friday to the European Union member, Agence France-Press reported.
Ministry official Tamas Menczer said on his Facebook page: "It is the duty of the Hungarian government to ensure the country's safe supply of natural gas, and we are living up to it."
In the first phase, an additional volume of 2.6m cubic meters a day would arrive from the south through the TurkStream pipeline until the end of August, Menczer said, adding that negotiations were under way for September deliveries."
I wasn't looking for this and I don't normally watch this YouTube show. I do not know how reliable this person is who bills himself as a former CIA spy: Andrew Bustamante. But, I was intrigued by the title, "former CIA spy analyzes Putin and the war in the Ukraine." Well, it's not good news for those hopeful for the Ukraine if you take what this person is saying seriously. It's an interesting conversation either way I think, if for no other reason than to try to discern if it is serious analysis. He says there's a 70% chance Russia wins, and he's not gleeful about it. Anyway, I'm very curious what those here who think the war is a good idea might say in response to it.
https://youtu.be/t5HDD6e7mn4//
*eta: echos of Todd: (20:02) "...the Unites States doesn't really have any economic vested interest in the Ukraine..."
Quote from: Que on August 13, 2022, 11:33:53 PM
Orbán has used his "special relationship" with the Kremlin to Hungary's advantage:
Russia's share of India's June oil imports surges to record (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-share-indias-june-oil-imports-surges-record-2022-07-11/#:~:text=NEW%20DELHI%2C%20July%2011%20(Reuters,provided%20by%20trade%20sources%20showed.)
I don't know if Modi has a "special relationship" with Putin, but India has been buying a lot more oil from Russia. It is perfectly rational for countries to buy critical resources at a lower price when possible. It is very, very hard for many Europeans and Americans to accept that most of the world does not view the Russo-Ukrainian War as anything more than a regional, European mess and that sanctions are not viewed as righteous or even legitimate.
Quote from: milk on August 14, 2022, 05:18:37 AMHe says there's a 70% chance Russia wins, and he's not gleeful about it. Anyway, I'm very curious what those here who think the war is a good idea might say in response to it.
https://youtu.be/t5HDD6e7mn4//
There are a lot of YouTube content creators of varying degrees of reliability. Of course, if one disagrees with a YouTuber, one can dismiss said content creator out of hand. That's how things work.
Quote from: milk on August 14, 2022, 05:18:37 AM*eta: echos of Todd: (20:02) "...the Unites States doesn't really have any economic vested interest in the Ukraine..."
Not too terribly long ago, the Forty-Fourth President of the United States of America rather famously said that he did not see Ukraine as a core interest for the United States. He certainly did not couch his perceptions of US interests in anything so crude as economic interests. How gauche.
The Obama Doctrine (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/)
Quote from: Jeffrey GoldbergObama's theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalatory dominance there.
"The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-nato country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do," he said.
I asked Obama whether his position on Ukraine was realistic or fatalistic.
"It's realistic," he said. "But this is an example of where we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for. And at the end of the day, there's always going to be some ambiguity."
Over at Grim Reapers I hoped to see what Kortana thought about the Uke attacks on SAM sites. She's the expert "SAMstress" over there, as she is involved in the DCS designs used for their missions.
She's in a submarine atm, doing Wolfpack missions. I wish she'd surface and help us out.
On another front, Taiwan has HIMARS. They also got great insights into the Chinese strategy and capability from the Pelosi tantrum. It's all good.
Quote from: Todd on August 14, 2022, 06:00:01 AM
Russia's share of India's June oil imports surges to record (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-share-indias-june-oil-imports-surges-record-2022-07-11/#:~:text=NEW%20DELHI%2C%20July%2011%20(Reuters,provided%20by%20trade%20sources%20showed.)
I don't know if Modi has a "special relationship" with Putin, but India has been buying a lot more oil from Russia. It is perfectly rational for countries to buy critical resources at a lower price when possible. It is very, very hard for many Europeans and Americans to accept that most of the world does not view the Russo-Ukrainian War as anything more than a regional, European mess and that sanctions are not viewed as righteous or even legitimate.
There are a lot of YouTube content creators of varying degrees of reliability. Of course, if one disagrees with a YouTuber, one can dismiss said content creator out of hand. That's how things work.
Some of the details are interesting anyway. It's worth a watch.
Quote from: milk on August 14, 2022, 03:18:49 PM
Some of the details are interesting anyway. It's worth a watch.
India will buy oil at a reduced price. I find it easy to accept that nations outside Europe might take advantage of the plight of Russia.
How regional is the oil crisis, or food crisis? It looks like it's a crisis for attacking the Ukrainian defense against Russian attack, but it's not a crisis that should concern the US and its allies, depending on something. What something? Who knows?
The world food crisis is regional, or world, or not real, which is option 3 I guess.
Quote from: Madiel on August 10, 2022, 01:39:51 AM
It is also worth noting when talking about "civil wars" in other parts of the world besides Europe that we are often talking about borders that were imposed by Europeans with absolutely no regard to local history.
Yes, absolutely. No argument from me in this respect. The European colonial powers bear a heavy responsibility for the current Middle Eastern and African mess.
Quote from: LKB on August 10, 2022, 06:37:06 PM
Ukraine should be striking Russian military assets within Russian borders, wherever possible.
I'm not that sure. Actually, I think they shouldn't, except Crimea.
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 08:01:57 AM
I'm not that sure. Actually, I think they shouldn't, except Crimea.
Putin is already trying to destroy Ukraine. Unless Zelenskyy has been told that western support will stop if he strikes such targets, he has little to lose.
I've just returned from a 4-day trip to Sibiu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sibiu) and Brașov (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bra%C8%99ov). Lots of Ukrainian in those cities, elegantly dressed and hair-dressed, especially the ladies (make-up also), they strolled at the Zoo or in the city center, ate icecream and drank beer, chatted and laughed and did not seem particularly upset by, let alone concerned for, the fate of their country. I suspect those people were not among the hundreds of thousands who queued up at the border passes, luggage in hand and often no papers for their kids, waiting for hours to get into Romania.
Make of this what you will, I just reported the fact.
Quote from: LKB on August 15, 2022, 08:21:06 AM
Putin is already trying to destroy Ukraine. Unless Zelenskyy has been told that western support will stop if he strikes such targets, he has little to lose.
He might have little to lose but the world at large has a lot. Encouraging Ukraine to shift from defensive actions to aggressive ones is sheer lunacy.
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 08:34:20 AM
He might have little to lose but the world at large has a lot. Encouraging Ukraine to shift from defensive actions to aggressive ones is sheer lunacy.
Quote from: United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin IIIWe want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.
It is hard to see publicly stated US war objectives being achieved by use of defensive tactics only.
Quote from: Todd on August 15, 2022, 08:55:12 AM
It is hard to see publicly stated US war objectives being achieved by use of defensive tactics only.
Well, Russian domestic consumption propaganda is very aggressive. I suspect American domestic consumption propaganda to be the same. Sabre-rattling competition.
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 08:34:20 AM
He might have little to lose but the world at large has a lot. Encouraging Ukraine to shift from defensive actions to aggressive ones is sheer lunacy.
The US objects to the use of long range weapons they provide to attack Russia, and some weapons have been denied to Ukraine because the US doesn't want US fingerprints on their use to attack Russian territory. Other than that, any counterattack into Russian territory is a matter of risks/rewards for Ukraine to decide. By all means the US has influence, up to a point. It can deny even defensive weapons to Ukraine to force their hand. That is very unlikely IMV.
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 09:05:53 AM
Well, Russian domestic consumption propaganda is very aggressive. I suspect American domestic consumption propaganda to be the same. Sabre-rattling competition.
The publicly stated objectives align with the long history of aggressive American action, including, but not limited to, recklessly expanding NATO. Further weakening Russia is very clearly an actual US objective.
Quote from: Todd on August 15, 2022, 09:11:22 AM
The publicly stated objectives align with the long history of aggressive American action, including, but not limited to, recklessly expanding NATO. Further weakening Russia is very clearly an actual US objective.
Susbstitute Russia for the US and it's the same old story: two great powers trying to undermine and weaken each other.
You speak as if Russia were an innocent victim and the Eastern European countries such as Poland, the Baltic States or Romania were coerced by the US into joining NATO. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 09:24:30 AMYou speak as if Russia were an innocent victim and the Eastern European countries such as Poland, the Baltic States or Romania were coerced by the US into joining NATO. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
I have never represented Russia as an innocent victim. You actively misrepresent what I have written.
Quote from: Todd on August 15, 2022, 09:44:53 AM
I have never represented Russia as an innocent victim. You actively misrepresent what I have written.
I apologize if I did, but given that you rarely clarify what you mean when asked to, I might perhaps be excused.
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 09:56:56 AM
I apologize if I did, but given that you rarely clarify what you mean when asked to, I might perhaps be excused.
This seems rather disingenuous.
Collective defense will be seen by an aggressor as aggressive for the purpose of undermining it, natch. The other reason to view defense as aggressive is....ah.....
Maybe some day we'll uncover the secret NATO plan to invade Russia. I wonder about this, though. My reasons are rational, as I disparage emotive claims.
NATO arms are far too limited for aggressive action. They are barely adequate for defense, a problem evident to US critics of NATO members for not contributing enough even for purely defensive purposes.
There, it's done. Eat or have cake. Which is it, weak defense or aggressive action in service of the secret plan?
Quote from: Todd on August 15, 2022, 10:06:25 AM
This seems rather disingenuous.
It is. I apologize again.
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 08:34:20 AM
He might have little to lose but the world at large has a lot. Encouraging Ukraine to shift from defensive actions to aggressive ones is sheer lunacy.
My friend, with all respect l cannot agree.
Consider: Putin has taken no military action against NATO, even though it is NATO weapons, training and support which have enabled the valiant Ukranians to retain their sovereignty. He fears NATO- rightly- and as his conventional forces have repeatedly come up short, by now he must have weighed the pros and cons of using WMDs against Ukranian targets, and has not done so.
As various experts have theorized, Putin may be committed to holding the line- accepting the status quo- until the Winter, when he may be able to exert more economic pressure against Europe.
By attacking targets within Russia
now, the Ukranians can negate that strategy. They can give the lie to Putin's fiction of a " special military operation " in the most undeniable fashion, and the Russian population whom have heretofore been willing to swallow the Kremlin's BS will finally be exposed to the truth, if they can bear to accept it.
So, l believe Biden should remove all restrictions on any American equipment currently being employed in Ukraine. War is always fraught with risk, but there will never be a better time for Ukraine to strike their enemy in a way which will weaken Putin politically.
Quote from: LKB on August 15, 2022, 10:40:14 AM
My friend, with all respect l cannot agree.
No problem, my friend. If everybody agreed with everybody else the world would be a very boring place.
Quotethere will never be a better time for Ukraine to strike their enemy in a way which will weaken Putin politically.
That's a joke, right? Putin's grip on Russian politics is as firm as Lenin's or Stalin's.
Mark my words: Russia will never ever be a functional democracy. The best we can hope for Russia and the world is a moderately authoritarian regime with a clearly defined and widely accepted succession rule --- ie, the restoration of the Tsars. ;D
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 15, 2022, 10:50:29 AMand St. Basil Cathedral likewise razed to the ground
You are openly advocating a war crime.
Ukraine: Let's grab a bargaining chip to force Putin to withdraw totally and return kidnapped Ukes.
UNkraine: That's lunacy.
I'll have to think about that. Certainly if Ukraine could achieve their goals without taking territory it would be preferable. That may not be the case, though.
I don't want Russia to be destroyed any more than their path towards self-destruction causes. Putin set the course and now are the consequences. Ukrainian mercy is in short supply, understandably so.
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 09:56:56 AM
I apologize if I did, but given that you rarely clarify what you mean when asked to, I might perhaps be excused.
Since the other guy seldom participates in good faith, you are readily excused.
I note the use of seldom when the adverb never might have served nearly as well.
Quote from: drogulus on August 15, 2022, 11:13:45 AM
Ukraine: Let's grab a bargaining chip to force Putin to withdraw totally and return kidnapped Ukes.
UNkraine: That's lunacy.
I'll have to think about that. Certainly if Ukraine could achieve their goals without taking territory it would be preferable. That may not be the case, though.
I don't want Russia to be destroyed any more than their path towards self-destruction causes. Putin set the course and now are the consequences. Ukrainian mercy is in short supply, understandably so.
As a Romanian, I would be delighted to see Russia defeated, humiliated, broken in a thousand parts, even wiped off the map altogether. I'm sure the Poles, The Baltics, the Finns and not a few Caucasian nations share this sentiment. But it's wishful thinking. Not going to happen. Russia is here to stay until Judgment Day (involuntary rhyme). They are certainly not at Ukraine's mercy, nor will they ever be.
Time will show whether the roughly 20,000 Russian soldiers in the Kherson district have really gone into a trap, now without deliveries of suppliances, after Ukraine bombed the three bridges across the broad, dividing river there. If it's the result of a plan to tempt them into the situation, it has been a brilliant scheme. Imagine the blow to the Russian army, if 10 - 20,000 of them would surrender there ...
The Russian military leadership there has apparently left, to settle in safer/more comfortable areas.
But a Wagner headquarters was taken out yesterday, when an enthusiastic reporter visited there, and posted pictures on the internet that even included a street sign and house numbers ... Prigozhin, the group's leader, was there, but left before the Ukrainian missile attack. He just wrote in a campaign to get convicts to volunteer, stating directly that murderers would even get first priority, and receive complete amnesty after 6 months of service.
Russia has an anti-drone weapon called ROSC-1. The Ukes destroyed it with a tiny drone that dropped a grenade on it. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
I posted a clip above of a conversation in which "the war of information" gets mentioned and this is another point of interest. I'm truly puzzled by this whole thing but I wonder if we will see some decisive direction by mid-winter at the latest. What strikes me is not that Russia's propaganda machine pumps out something wholly different from the west but how we can get something like the prognosis in the clip I posted, which, again, I think is worth a watch, saying that things are pretty well headed in Russia's direction now vs. day-to-day posts of progress on the Ukraine side. There's such a gulf between how this is reported in various ways.
Maybe I should try to summarize the clip since maybe no one will watch it. I'd have to rewatch to be exact but it was something like:
1. Russia's first two strategies were shocking failures but its third is decisively on course.
2. Russia has something like a 70-80% chance of success now.
3. 20-30% chance on the Ukrainian side isn't nothing. It's something. But not much.
4. The U.S. is in this for ideological reasons and as a kind of war game.
5. The U.S. and NATO have no economic interests in the war.
6. Russia will try to win at all costs; from its standpoint, it cannot afford to let Ukraine fall from its sphere of influence (it has huge economic interests there)
7. Russia will likely commit many war crimes to win but this, of course, doesn't matter to Putin
8. There will likely be a negotiation allowing Ukraine to save some face but keeping it within Russia's control
9. Zelensky will not be allowed to remain.
Here's an historical question for the buffs here: do you think it's true that revolutions rarely succeed with the backing of outside troops?
Quote from: milk on August 15, 2022, 03:28:24 PM
5. The U.S. and NATO have no economic interests in the war.
I disagree with this. The US has no economic interest in Ukraine, and NATO members have varying but limited economic interests in Ukraine, but they have substantial economic interests in
war. The US went from third largest to largest exporter of LNG in a few months this year, and not only defense contractors but more mundane companies and industries, like agriculture, also stand to gain. The US benefits economically from most wars it wages.
It is self-evident that Russia's interests in Ukraine are near existential, economically and strategically, so they will continue to fight. I suggest reading some of what William Burns has written in the past about how Russian leaders view Ukraine - from Putin to his most dogged internal foes. Mr Burns, of course, is a former ambassador to Russia and is the current CIA director.
As to the divergent types of reporting on the war, pro-war propaganda in the US and west is blatantly and obviously skewed. Some news outlets don't even really try to hide it. Before it started waning as other, more important topics arose, it was more intensive in some ways than the pro-war propaganda for America's wars earlier this century. Some eastern, English language sources out of India and Singapore do offer a more detached view.
Quote from: milk on August 15, 2022, 03:28:24 PM
6. Russia will try to win at all costs; from its standpoint, it cannot afford to let Ukraine fall from its sphere of influence (it has huge economic interests there)
Yes, Russia can't afford to lose. They can't afford anything else, either, and victory is the least affordable thing.
Or am I wrong? Are the Russians like "just wait 'til we get really serious, then we'll show the world and those khokhols who's boss!" Is that it?
Ah, no, I don't think so. It's every bit as bad as it looks, unless it's worse. Worse is always possible.
Quote from: milk on August 15, 2022, 03:28:24 PM
I posted a clip above of a conversation in which "the war of information" gets mentioned and this is another point of interest. I'm truly puzzled by this whole thing but I wonder if we will see some decisive direction by mid-winter at the latest. What strikes me is not that Russia's propaganda machine pumps out something wholly different from the west but how we can get something like the prognosis in the clip I posted, which, again, I think is worth a watch, saying that things are pretty well headed in Russia's direction now vs. day-to-day posts of progress on the Ukraine side. There's such a gulf between how this is reported in various ways.
Maybe I should try to summarize the clip since maybe no one will watch it. I'd have to rewatch to be exact but it was something like:
1. Russia's first two strategies were shocking failures but its third is decisively on course.
2. Russia has something like a 70-80% chance of success now.
3. 20-30% chance on the Ukrainian side isn't nothing. It's something. But not much.
(...)
6. Russia will try to win at all costs; from its standpoint, it cannot afford to let Ukraine fall from its sphere of influence (it has huge economic interests there)
(...)
8. There will likely be a negotiation allowing Ukraine to save some face but keeping it within Russia's control
(...)
During the month of July, Russia gained an additional 0.02% of Ukraine's territory.
With that speed, it will take Russia 400 years to a complete win, not including guerilla wars behind the front lines.
A bit more than the planned-for three to seven days.
But the heavy artillery use by the Russians, when they have the supplies, does impose losses for the Ukrainians.
A lot of experts, including for example Galeotti, think that the sanctions will really start to work this autumn. The Yale report saying that Russia's GDP is already now down 40% is debatable, but Russia is really behind as regards sophisticated spare parts for their industry, for example. Car production has gone down to 3%, airline pilots have been officially asked to use their brakes savingly, etc. etc.
Turkey's Russia connections are complicated, both rejecting and positive; export to Russia is going up a lot, partly as a means to overcome some of the sanctions, but Turkey also supports Ukraine, continues to deliver drones, and was a factor in the wheat shipping deal. In Turkey, the popular belief is that Russia's status as a great power in the region is diminishing, and that it is becoming so dependent on a few outside relations (nowadays North Korea and Iran, also India, are mentioned a lot), that Erdogan will have good negotiation cards to press Putin into political compromises.
Ukraine seems determined to attack well into Crimea too - this morning, one large ammunition deposit there, that has been exploding for hours, and one electric supply station, 200 km from the front line.
EDIT: And a few hours later, another airbase in Southern Crimea, with 24 stationed airplanes.
Quote from: milk on August 15, 2022, 03:28:24 PM
I posted a clip above of a conversation in which "the war of information" gets mentioned and this is another point of interest. I'm truly puzzled by this whole thing but I wonder if we will see some decisive direction by mid-winter at the latest. What strikes me is not that Russia's propaganda machine pumps out something wholly different from the west but how we can get something like the prognosis in the clip I posted, which, again, I think is worth a watch, saying that things are pretty well headed in Russia's direction now vs. day-to-day posts of progress on the Ukraine side. There's such a gulf between how this is reported in various ways.
Maybe I should try to summarize the clip since maybe no one will watch it. I'd have to rewatch to be exact but it was something like:
1. Russia's first two strategies were shocking failures but its third is decisively on course.
2. Russia has something like a 70-80% chance of success now.
3. 20-30% chance on the Ukrainian side isn't nothing. It's something. But not much.
4. The U.S. is in this for ideological reasons and as a kind of war game.
5. The U.S. and NATO have no economic interests in the war.
6. Russia will try to win at all costs; from its standpoint, it cannot afford to let Ukraine fall from its sphere of influence (it has huge economic interests there)
7. Russia will likely commit many war crimes to win but this, of course, doesn't matter to Putin
8. There will likely be a negotiation allowing Ukraine to save some face but keeping it within Russia's control
9. Zelensky will not be allowed to remain.
Here's an historical question for the buffs here: do you think it's true that revolutions rarely succeed with the backing of outside troops?
Sorry, I meant WITHOUT the backing of outside troops.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 15, 2022, 08:36:33 PM
During the month of July, Russia gained an additional 0.02% of Ukraine's territory.
With that speed, it will take Russia 400 years to a complete win, not including guerilla wars behind the front lines.
A bit more than the planned-for three to seven days.
Maybe I'll watch it again later. This ex-CIA dude, Bustamante, gave a sort of detailed argument for why he sees little chance of victory for Ukraine at this point. Maybe I can get a sense of that and post more; I can remember few of those details now. I do remember him referring to a large shipment that had to get through Russian approval recently as one example of how Russia has its "foot on Ukraine's neck"?
I'll say this: if Ukraine can win, it'll be a defining event in the 21st century for western values (or whatever you want to call it) and it will be something for the U.S. to crow about certainly (and BTW, I'd be happy with this outcome; I'd hope it would also help the cause against China). I suppose it would have to bring chaos within Russia along with it. On the other hand, if this turns out to go the other way, won't it make the west seem rather cynical and the entire undertaking seem even more tragic? It's a huge cost to Ukrainians in terms of life on top of the debt that Russia as the victor is unlikely to assume.
Quote from: milk on August 15, 2022, 03:28:24 PM
4. The U.S. is in this for ideological reasons and as a kind of war game.
5. The U.S. and NATO have no economic interests in the war.
6. Russia will try to win at all costs; from its standpoint, it cannot afford to let Ukraine fall from its sphere of influence (it has huge economic interests there)
Of course the U.S. has economic interests in the war,
the ones that make Russia try to win at all costs. What do people think Hunter Biden was doing in Ukraine?
Quote from: milk on August 15, 2022, 10:53:22 PMMaybe I'll watch it again later. This ex-CIA dude, Bustamante, gave a sort of detailed argument for why he sees little chance of victory for Ukraine at this point.
Can you define the word "victory" for this war?
Quote from: milk on August 15, 2022, 10:53:22 PMI'd hope it would also help the cause against China
First, even assuming a practical definition of "victory" can be arrived at, Ukrainian victory (or rather, the short-term triumph of American Imperialism) is unlikely to have a material impact on relations with China. Russia and the United States are declining powers, while China is a rising power. China's continued rise in power is more broadly based, with direct and massive involvement in the existing international economic system, and on a far larger scale than Russia has ever achieved. Economic development and the rise and fall of powers is not linear, of course, and there will be bumps along the way, but the sheer scale of Chinese power makes it quite different than Russia.
Second, I am unclear what the "cause against China" is, but the language is informed by the crusader mentality that is so deeply ingrained in much western foreign policy. That is, only The West is fit to rule the world. Which, of course, is untrue. China does not offer the type of systemic challenge that the USSR did in that it is not trying to either offer an alternative economic system or assume the role of the current dominant power within the (eroding) system, but rather it is building economic and political ties with countries all around the world, including right into Europe. True, the relationships are unbalanced, in favor of China, which is an approach favored by the US as well. A more incremental approach, one that relies on building economic and political ties before expanding into military action, is a more measured approach. Given that China has primarily emphasized reabsorbing Taiwan and dominion over seas bearing the name of China as short- and medium-term objectives, the objectives themselves are limited. Sure, China can become more expansionist and attempt to build out a network of global military bases to counter the power of the US, but that seems unlikely this decade or next. First China has to address Taiwan and develop a blue water navy capability to rival the US. That will take until the 2040s, unless there is a full-scale war before then. Let's assume all this happens. Even then, one must ask the big question: So?
Quote from: 71 dB on August 16, 2022, 03:54:27 AM
Of course the U.S. has economic interests in the war, the ones that make Russia try to win at all costs. What do people think Hunter Biden was doing in Ukraine?
After all, Hunter Biden is a minor, and apparently deplorable, figure. His salaries and company's earnings in Ukraine allegedly amounted to $ 11 mio, and he had other overseas projects too, such as China.
Though there have surely been some profits to gain, Ukraine's trade with the US before 2022 was rather minute; biggest players in that respect were the EU, then China, Russia, Turkey, the US, and India.
Among other things Ukraine does have growth potential in the gas deposits.
Washington Post has an article today about US intelligence obtaining extremely detailed Russian invasion plans in October 2021, 'The Road to War'. The intel was shared with NATO partners in mid-November, except for the attack on Hostomel Kyiv airport, that only US and Ukraine knew about.
This would obviously further explain those NATO wargames held in November, I mentioned very early in the war, suggesting clearly that Russia would win. Even Italy's army did special wargames about it.
That NATO and Ukraine were afterwards better prepared of course partly explains the unexpected problems faced so far by the Russians.
Quote from: Todd on August 16, 2022, 04:36:41 AM
Can you define the word "victory" for this war?
First, even assuming a practical definition of "victory" can be arrived at, Ukrainian victory (or rather, the short-term triumph of American Imperialism) is unlikely to have a material impact on relations with China. Russia and the United States are declining powers, while China is a rising power. China's continued rise in power is more broadly based, with direct and massive involvement in the existing international economic system, and on a far larger scale than Russia has ever achieved. Economic development and the rise and fall of powers is not linear, of course, and there will be bumps along the way, but the sheer scale of Chinese power makes it quite different than Russia.
Second, I am unclear what the "cause against China" is, but the language is informed by the crusader mentality that is so deeply ingrained in much western foreign policy. That is, only The West is fit to rule the world. Which, of course, is untrue. China does not offer the type of systemic challenge that the USSR did in that it is not trying to either offer an alternative economic system or assume the role of the current dominant power within the (eroding) system, but rather it is building economic and political ties with countries all around the world, including right into Europe. True, the relationships are unbalanced, in favor of China, which is an approach favored by the US as well. A more incremental approach, one that relies on building economic and political ties before expanding into military action, is a more measured approach. Given that China has primarily emphasized reabsorbing Taiwan and dominion over seas bearing the name of China as short- and medium-term objectives, the objectives themselves are limited. Sure, China can become more expansionist and attempt to build out a network of global military bases to counter the power of the US, but that seems unlikely this decade or next. First China has to address Taiwan and develop a blue water navy capability to rival the US. That will take until the 2040s, unless there is a full-scale war before then. Let's assume all this happens. Even then, one must ask the big question: So?
I'm hesitant to define what Ukrainian victory means. What are Russia's objectives? You can probably say with much more precision than me. I'm assuming there's a list of specific ways that Russia needs to keep its influence over the Ukraine and that it could negotiate for those things. I'm also assuming they'd include getting rid of Zekenski. Here's a question: is the invasion of the Ukraine an act that any rational Russian leader would or could do? Or is it something only a monster like Putin would do?
I take your point about China. That's certainly one way of looking at it, although, some of those seas bearing China's name have other names as well. Maybe that sounds like a quibble. I doubt Chinese ships are the only ones sailing through them.
I don't know about "is informed." It may sound like that to you as far as the operation of my mind. The cause for me is just to keep China cautious about using its military power, to keep it from being a bully. It all really depends on what everyone's intentions and capabilities really are. My mind is open as far as not wanting to throw away lives on un-winnable causes. That's a tenant of Just War Theory (as far as that's worth). But I do see Russia and China as noxious. I don't think it's a "crusader" thing at all actually. Look around Asia. I'm trying to think of where "people on the street" like the Chinese government. Not Vietnam. Not India or Sri Lanka or Laos. Not Japan. Of course not South Korea. Maybe there is somewhere. Maybe Singapore where there's a large Chinese-speaking population. But China isn't only butting heads about territory (land/ocean) with India, Japan, The Philippines and Vietnam, it's also got problems with Malaysia. It also sees its popularity tested in Indonesia.
I get your view that China is on the rise and so what, why get hot and bothered about it, etc. It's worth considering whether it's worth it to spend any kind of resources butting up against that. Maybe it is or maybe it isn't.
Taiwan seems different to me, but I don't know about the details much. Isn't it much denser than Ukraine, in terms of population? I just can't imagine what a military conflict will look like there, especially if the U.S. and Japan actually get involved. I can't even believe it's possible for Japan to enter into a military conflict with China and it's probably horrifying to so many people in Japan but if the LDP do change the Japanese constitution and the U.S. gets into that conflict, it seems unavoidable.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 12, 2022, 11:46:07 AM
'A bit of a problem' including offering convicts, also murderers, the possibility to be released and get money for participating in the war (apparently 1500 so far); and mercenary groups like Wagner being finally recognised as military groups that also participate officially, besides just doing the other dirty or covert jobs they've specialized in before.
Overall, the Russian losses and soldiers have very much been from the outer, poorer provinces - another means of trying to keep the middle or well-off classes somewhat less troubled by the war.
Convicts?! ???
PD
Crimea go boom again.
Quote from: milk on August 16, 2022, 06:13:35 AM
I'm hesitant to define what Ukrainian victory means.
Defining it doesn't matter. Ukraine is conducting a special operation against armed Russian tourists.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on August 16, 2022, 07:37:05 AM
Convicts?! ???
PD
Reportedly rapists and pedophiles are deemed ineligible... but murderers are not a problem.
Quote from: Que on August 16, 2022, 11:10:12 AM
Reportedly rapists and pedophiles are deemed ineligible... but murderers are not a problem.
The army already has enough rapists and murderers deployed — reportedly.
Quote from: milk on August 16, 2022, 06:13:35 AMI'm hesitant to define what Ukrainian victory means....is the invasion of the Ukraine an act that any rational Russian leader would or could do? Or is it something only a monster like Putin would do?
No one has really defined what victory for either side looks like to a satisfactory degree. The non-specialist (ie, non-academic, non-government) foreign policy journals mostly posit Russian control of portions of eastern Ukraine and continued control of Crimea as a success of sorts for Russia, but one can say that would be a success or failure, depending on political objectives. Unconditional surrender, or even conditional surrender of Russia with onerous terms, is exceedingly unlikely, as is Ukraine returning to pre-2014 borders.
Since Putin is the Russian leader, we are left with Putin's actions as opposed to an alternate leader. Guessing what another monster or non-monster would have done would be contrafactual, though multiple sources with first-hand experience with Russian politicians all indicate that expansionist US policy, particularly pertaining to Ukraine, has always been viewed as threatening. When a country is under threat, it is not uncommon for the country to take some type of action, though a large-scale invasion may not be pursued.
Quote from: milk on August 16, 2022, 06:13:35 AMI don't think it's a "crusader" thing at all actually.
The crusader mentality in US foreign policy can alternately be described as the Messianic (rooted in Wilsonian thought) or Maximalist (Richard Haass' formulation) approach, whereby the US sets out to promote and even force democracy, capitalism, and supposed "Western Values" on other states. The specific outlook of other powers does not really matter quite so much if they are aligned with the US, or at the very least subservient to the "rules-based order" enforced by the US. China has become powerful enough so that it can begin to challenge the existing order, though it still participates quite fully in the established economic framework. It would be rather unusual for China to not seek to change certain aspects of the existing international order. It would be unusual for the US to cede power willingly and without war. Were the US actually exceptional, it might.
Any war over Taiwan would be brutal and costly. However many civilian deaths war games may estimate, the actual figures would be higher. One must consider whether the human toll, the military cost, and the economic cost of a potential war in Taiwan is worth it. Certainly, the Taiwanese may accept hundreds of thousands or millions of dead Taiwanese and years of economic ruin to remain independent - at least for a while. That is their prerogative. Taiwanese independence is not worth any American lives.
Quote from: BasilValentine on August 16, 2022, 12:35:09 PM
The army already has enough rapists and murderers deployed — reportedly.
Good point. I guess there is no logic to madness.
To invoke "madness" is just lazy and stupid, sorry. It was obvious and had been announced many times that Russia would not tolerate a "turning" of Ukraine (neither of Belarus). When the West did this 8 years ago, the conflict became hot. It's not that complicated.
The puzzling/interesting thing is that the conflict remained local (Crimea and Eastern Ukraine) with the West not really caring any more for most of the last 8 years. Then whatever happened in last fall (stationing of NATO weapons or something similar, like lots of "military advisors" in the Ukraine) apparently led to Russia taking to the ultima ratio regum again, with "the West" not ready for this, mostly because of their dependence on Russian fuel etc.
Now the European leaders (incl. the most despicable bunch heading Germany since 1945) is apparently obeying their US masters in ruining their population's wealth and energy security by idiotic embargoes that hurts Russia very little, (parts of) Europe a lot but gives good business opportunties for US LNG etc.
The US seems to be happy to ruin Europe and expend Ukrainian lives as long as it hurts Russia considerably. Because they will need the dwindling power of their crumbling Empire to stall China in the Pacific and don't want to expend too much in Europe. That's all fine, just part of great game realpolitik but the Europeans should not be as stupid as they are and do their bidding. I don't hope for serious trouble with gas etc in winter but it seems to be necessary for the Europeans to wake up. Ukraine (with no possible "victory condition") is not worth ruining the rest of the continent.
Quote from: Jo498 on August 16, 2022, 01:34:40 PM
To invoke "madness" is just lazy and stupid, sorry.
Well, thank you. I think you misread/misunderstood, since "madness" was only referring to the recruitment of convicts.
Quote from: Jo498 on August 16, 2022, 01:34:40 PM
To invoke "madness" is just lazy and stupid, sorry. It was obvious and had been announced many times that Russia would not tolerate a "turning" of Ukraine (neither of Belarus). When the West did this 8 years ago, the conflict became hot. It's not that complicated.
The puzzling/interesting thing is that the conflict remained local (Crimea and Eastern Ukraine) with the West not really caring any more for most of the last 8 years. Then whatever happened in last fall (stationing of NATO weapons or something similar, like lots of "military advisors" in the Ukraine) apparently led to Russia taking to the ultima ratio regum again, with "the West" not ready for this, mostly because of their dependence on Russian fuel etc.
Now the European leaders (incl. the most despicable bunch heading Germany since 1945) is apparently obeying their US masters in ruining their population's wealth and energy security by idiotic embargoes that hurts Russia very little, (parts of) Europe a lot but gives good business opportunties for US LNG etc.
The US seems to be happy to ruin Europe and expend Ukrainian lives as long as it hurts Russia considerably. Because they will need the dwindling power of their crumbling Empire to stall China in the Pacific and don't want to expend too much in Europe. That's all fine, just part of great game realpolitik but the Europeans should not be as stupid as they are and do their bidding. I don't hope for serious trouble with gas etc in winter but it seems to be necessary for the Europeans to wake up. Ukraine (with no possible "victory condition") is not worth ruining the rest of the continent.
So you'd be content to have Germany become a vassal of Russia again?
Because that's the Putinist vision: a renewed Soviet empire.
Quote from: JBS on August 16, 2022, 03:24:18 PM
So you'd be content to have Germany become a vassal of Russia again?
Because that's the Putinist vision: a renewed Soviet empire.
A classic false dichotomy.
Death toll: 200 soldiers per day.
This is totally insane.
Quote from: Todd on August 16, 2022, 03:29:56 PM
A classic false dichotomy.
I'm merely be as objective and clearheaded as you claim to be.
Quote from: JBS on August 16, 2022, 03:44:28 PM
I'm merely be as objective and clearheaded as you claim to be.
Got it.
I don't see the US forcing Germany to correct its vastly stupid energy blunder. The easy course for them turned out very badly. If the US really was the big bully it would have not permitted Germany to stupidly throw away its own security. Bad US!! Don't you know how to suzerain?
Quote from: Todd on August 16, 2022, 01:06:31 PM
No one has really defined what victory for either side looks like to a satisfactory degree. The non-specialist (ie, non-academic, non-government) foreign policy journals mostly posit Russian control of portions of eastern Ukraine and continued control of Crimea as a success of sorts for Russia, but one can say that would be a success or failure, depending on political objectives. Unconditional surrender, or even conditional surrender of Russia with onerous terms, is exceedingly unlikely, as is Ukraine returning to pre-2014 borders.
Since Putin is the Russian leader, we are left with Putin's actions as opposed to an alternate leader. Guessing what another monster or non-monster would have done would be contrafactual, though multiple sources with first-hand experience with Russian politicians all indicate that expansionist US policy, particularly pertaining to Ukraine, has always been viewed as threatening. When a country is under threat, it is not uncommon for the country to take some type of action, though a large-scale invasion may not be pursued.
The crusader mentality in US foreign policy can alternately be described as the Messianic (rooted in Wilsonian thought) or Maximalist (Richard Haass' formulation) approach, whereby the US sets out to promote and even force democracy, capitalism, and supposed "Western Values" on other states. The specific outlook of other powers does not really matter quite so much if they are aligned with the US, or at the very least subservient to the "rules-based order" enforced by the US. China has become powerful enough so that it can begin to challenge the existing order, though it still participates quite fully in the established economic framework. It would be rather unusual for China to not seek to change certain aspects of the existing international order. It would be unusual for the US to cede power willingly and without war. Were the US actually exceptional, it might.
Any war over Taiwan would be brutal and costly. However many civilian deaths war games may estimate, the actual figures would be higher. One must consider whether the human toll, the military cost, and the economic cost of a potential war in Taiwan is worth it. Certainly, the Taiwanese may accept hundreds of thousands or millions of dead Taiwanese and years of economic ruin to remain independent - at least for a while. That is their prerogative. Taiwanese independence is not worth any American lives.
I think it's worth considering what you're saying. I'd just like to steel man the opposing arguments. Unfortunately, I'm not the best one for the job. I'm not sure why being aligned with the U.S. makes countries irrelevant but I have to read/understand more on the topic. China will suffer a population decline like Japan, but I don't know enough to challenge your claim that its rise to dominance is inevitable. Certainly it will grow in influence as it has. But how much? At least there must be variables in the future. I assume India is a variable as are all the big economies in the region.
I'm interested in the back and forth-s on these topics as I learn a lot that way.
China has a far worse population crisis than Japan. The best that can be said is the Chinese won't go extinct.
Quote from: milk on August 16, 2022, 05:58:05 PMI'm not sure why being aligned with the U.S. makes countries irrelevant but I have to read/understand more on the topic.
In the post-war and post-Cold War eras, the only allies that have pursued a foreign policy not in near-perfect alignment overall with the US are France and Turkey, and only Turkey has pursued policies sometimes directly and actively at odds with US interests. Only a handful of countries allied with the US matter or even have the capacity to matter. Economic power and military power - that is, hard power - ultimately determine the ability to influence events. (Soft power is emphasized by those who lack hard power.) Were Europe to formulate a consolidated, unified foreign policy with concomitant military power, it could act as a counterweight to the US, but Europeans can't even get monetary policy locked in properly.
Quote from: milk on August 16, 2022, 05:58:05 PMChina will suffer a population decline like Japan, but I don't know enough to challenge your claim that its rise to dominance is inevitable.
I have never written that China will rise to dominance. China is rising, India is rising, the US is declining, Russia is declining, European powers are declining. Some African countries have the capacity to become significant regional players as well, though that will take decades. (Perhaps Saudi Arabia or even Iran can become more influential, but the source of their income and wealth will become less significant in the next several decades, and unless they transition to more diversified economies, they will ultimately decline rapidly.) The world is moving toward multipolarity more akin to what existed in centuries past. Since so many people have become accustomed to a single country possessing such disproportionate power, many people appear to naturally conclude the next eighty years will be like the last eighty. The last eighty years are historically anomalous. This will become more clear as non-western powers become more influential, first regionally, then globally. Many Americans, in particular, will have great difficulty adjusting.
Quote from: Todd on August 16, 2022, 07:04:56 PM
In the post-war and post-Cold War eras, the only allies that have pursued a foreign policy not in near-perfect alignment overall with the US are France and Turkey, and only Turkey has pursued policies sometimes directly and actively at odds with US interests. Only a handful of countries allied with the US matter or even have the capacity to matter. Economic power and military power - that is, hard power - ultimately determine the ability to influence events. (Soft power is emphasized by those who lack hard power.) Were Europe to formulate a consolidated, unified foreign policy with concomitant military power, it could act as a counterweight to the US, but Europeans can't even get monetary policy locked in properly.
I have never written that China will rise to dominance. China is rising, India is rising, the US is declining, Russia is declining, European powers are declining. Some African countries have the capacity to become significant regional players as well, though that will take decades. (Perhaps Saudi Arabia or even Iran can become more influential, but the source of their income and wealth will become less significant in the next several decades, and unless they transition to more diversified economies, they will ultimately decline rapidly.) The world is moving toward multipolarity more akin to what existed in centuries past. Since so many people have become accustomed to a single country possessing such disproportionate power, many people appear to naturally conclude the next eighty years will be like the last eighty. The last eighty years are historically anomalous. This will become more clear as non-western powers become more influential, first regionally, then globally. Many Americans, in particular, will have great difficulty adjusting.
This is a serious perspective I do think. Again, I just wonder what a serious counter-perspective might be. I doubt anyone would argue that multipolarity isn't the drift. I wonder if there is more than one place it can leave countries in the region. Your argument is that it might be better to let Taiwan go; I assume if the U.S. doesn't fight for it, no one else will, maybe not even the Taiwanese? And hawks like Bolton will argue that U.S. credibility as a power is done for if it doesn't (to which you will say "so what?). Again, I think your view is very serious and I'm still waiting for a dispassionate, knowledgeable, well-reasoned argument against your position. Isn't China's prosperity tied to good relations with most if not all of the countries with which it has territorial disputes? It's a strange world. I'm trying to image it. China takes Taiwan, and islands/areas/land from Japan, S. Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Malaysia, etc. China also uses its power and influence to bankrupt countries like Sri Lanka and Laos. I guess there's no reason why Americans should care. But I wonder if it's that simple for any of these actors involved.
I do see the argument against broad liberal intervention a la Bartlet. The U.S. has a lot of blood on its hands for all the good that's hardly clear as day from the last 50 years of military operations, coups and police actions.
I'm definitely admit I'm biased against the Chinese government though.
Quote from: Jo498 on August 16, 2022, 01:34:40 PM
To invoke "madness" is just lazy and stupid, sorry. It was obvious and had been announced many times that Russia would not tolerate a "turning" of Ukraine (neither of Belarus). When the West did this 8 years ago, the conflict became hot. It's not that complicated.
The puzzling/interesting thing is that the conflict remained local (Crimea and Eastern Ukraine) with the West not really caring any more for most of the last 8 years. Then whatever happened in last fall (stationing of NATO weapons or something similar, like lots of "military advisors" in the Ukraine) apparently led to Russia taking to the ultima ratio regum again, with "the West" not ready for this, mostly because of their dependence on Russian fuel etc.
Now the European leaders (incl. the most despicable bunch heading Germany since 1945) is apparently obeying their US masters in ruining their population's wealth and energy security by idiotic embargoes that hurts Russia very little, (parts of) Europe a lot but gives good business opportunties for US LNG etc.
The US seems to be happy to ruin Europe and expend Ukrainian lives as long as it hurts Russia considerably. Because they will need the dwindling power of their crumbling Empire to stall China in the Pacific and don't want to expend too much in Europe. That's all fine, just part of great game realpolitik but the Europeans should not be as stupid as they are and do their bidding. I don't hope for serious trouble with gas etc in winter but it seems to be necessary for the Europeans to wake up. Ukraine (with no possible "victory condition") is not worth ruining the rest of the continent.
There was not some advanced, cunning Western plan to take over Ukraine, via the use of snipers at Maidan etc; Western politicians were primarily improvising during the events, when ultra-corrupt Yanukovych decided to flee. The events in 1989 were also unthinkable, until they actually and suddenly happened.
The gas problem is overrated, and certainly its economic effects, plus it mainly influences just a few EU countries. The alternative then, is the acceptance of a genocide taking place in Ukraine and the militarily executed annihilation of a state literally next door. This would be a legacy that would remain. The opinions of the Ukrainians themselves are pretty clear, and it will take several generations for the hatred towards Russians to recede, including among the Russian-speaking Ukrainians. In Bucha, 90% of the inhabitants fled; of those remaining, mostly pensioners, 10% were tortured and then killed during a few days of occupation. In the current warfare, Russia creates deserts out of towns and cities via bombardments, destroys the housing, education and culture, and then calls it peace; it suppresses the remaining part of the population completely, or forces them to become labour force, including deporting them into Russia itself; and loot the local ressources. Almost 6 million Ukrainians have fled to abroad, probably 30,000 civilians have been killed; even the Russian puppet statelets say that some of the destroyed towns just can't be rebuilt. And so on. Not to mention the massive Russian lying and propaganda, that poisons meaningful dialogue and democracy. Compared to this behaviour, focusing on 'gas prices' is simply blasphemy.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 16, 2022, 10:33:06 PM
There was not some advanced, cunning Western plan to take over Ukraine, via the use of snipers at Maidan etc; Western politicians were primarily improvising during the events, when ultra-corrupt Yanukovych decided to flee. The events in 1989 were also unthinkable, until they actually and suddenly happened.
The gas problem is overrated, and certainly its economic effects, plus it mainly influences just a few EU countries. The alternative then, is the acceptance of a genocide taking place in Ukraine and the militarily executed annihilation of a state literally next door. This would be a legacy that would remain. The opinions of the Ukrainians themselves are pretty clear, and it will take several generations for the hatred towards Russians to recede, including among the Russian-speaking Ukrainians. In Bucha, 90% of the inhabitants fled; of those remaining, mostly pensioners, 10% were tortured and then killed during a few days of occupation. In the current warfare, Russia creates deserts out of towns and cities via bombardments, destroys the housing, education and culture, and then calls it peace; it suppresses the remaining part of the population completely, or forces them to become labour force, including deporting them into Russia itself; and loot the local ressources. Almost 6 million Ukrainians have fled to abroad, probably 30,000 civilians have been killed; even the Russian puppet statelets say that some of the destroyed towns just can't be rebuilt. And so on. Not to mention the massive Russian lying and propaganda, that poisons meaningful dialogue and democracy. Compared to this behaviour, focusing on 'gas prices' is simply blasphemy.
Correct. And for a sobering view of how Putin played Germany, read this:
https://www.politico.eu/article/blame-germany-russia-policy/
Quote from: Florestan on August 15, 2022, 08:28:19 AM
I've just returned from a 4-day trip to Sibiu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sibiu) and Brașov (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bra%C8%99ov). Lots of Ukrainian in those cities, elegantly dressed and hair-dressed, especially the ladies (make-up also), they strolled at the Zoo or in the city center, ate icecream and drank beer, chatted and laughed and did not seem particularly upset by, let alone concerned for, the fate of their country. I suspect those people were not among the hundreds of thousands who queued up at the border passes, luggage in hand and often no papers for their kids, waiting for hours to get into Romania.
Make of this what you will, I just reported the fact.
This reads rather like telling people they're grieving wrongly.
There's been a war for 8 years, intensified during the last 6 months. From what I hear, Ukraine now has some of the most active and efficient NGO life in Europe, also concerning help during the war. Should the exiled stop enjoying life, grieve constantly also in front of their children, wear black and/or stay indoors? Of course not.
Obviously, a lot have been traumatized already.
Quote from: The new erato on August 17, 2022, 12:33:13 AM
Correct. And for a sobering view of how Putin played Germany, read this:
https://www.politico.eu/article/blame-germany-russia-policy/
There seems to be two very different narratives of how the current situation came about.
According to the first, Putin was provoked by an unreliable West that pushed an aggressive expansion of NATO (and of the EU).
According to the other, the West was delusional in appeasing Putin with close economic ties, blocking Ukrainian NATO membership, and not acting decisively against Russia when it annnexed the Crimea and started a proxy war in the Donbas.
Two stories indeed. But I don't think story 1 was about military agression as there was none besides the fear of an independent people possibly choosing a path Putin didn't like some time in the future. Putins real fear was about the threats of ideas that could put internal Russian stabiliy at stake in the long term, and his delusions of being the last remnant of the holy Roman Empire, destined to impose its ideas on the rest of Europe. Those ideas are well known and opposed the democracy, secularity, antiracism, etc etc.
What Russia tried to do was having the cake (the Wests money and investments) and eat it too. And the West fell for it by a long way. No more.
Quote from: The new erato on August 17, 2022, 03:08:19 AM
Two stories indeed. But I don't think story 1 was about military agression as there was none besides the fear of an indenpendent people poosibly choosing a path Putinin didn't like some time in the future. Putins real fear was about the threats of ideas that could put internal Russian stabiliy at stake in the long term, and his delusions of being the last remnant of the holy Roman Empire, destined to impose its ideas on the rest of Europe. Those ideas are well known and opposed the democracy, secularity, antiracism, etc etc.
What Russia tried to do was having the cake (the Wests money and investments) and eat it too. And the West fell for it by a long way. No more.
I happen to agree. Putin's imperial aspirations and the free choice of sovereign nations do not go together. Ultimately the West was forced - by Putin - to make a choice between the two.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FaV8WYvXgAENZBg?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: milk on August 16, 2022, 10:08:41 PMAnd hawks like Bolton will argue that U.S. credibility as a power is done for if it doesn't (to which you will say "so what?).
This type of argument is used from time to time, but what does it really mean? Other than nothing. Obama spoke of a red line regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria yet did nothing when the weapons were used. The US still possesses a good deal of credibility. The US illegally invaded Iraq in 2003. The world still begs the US for support rather than constructing new security alliances. They are doing so right now over Ukraine.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 16, 2022, 10:33:06 PMThe alternative then, is the acceptance of a genocide taking place in Ukraine and the militarily executed annihilation of a state literally next door.
City-states and nation-states are political constructions that come and go over time. The world has not achieved The End of History. More city-states and nation-states will come and go.
Concern about genocide in Ukraine again exposes the Eurocentric and racist attitudes underpinning this war. There is nowhere near the same outcry about the various genocides in poor, brown countries. It is also debatable whether what is happening in Ukraine is, in fact, genocide. From a propaganda standpoint, it makes perfect sense to use the word.
Quote from: MusicTurner on August 16, 2022, 10:33:06 PMCompared to this behaviour, focusing on 'gas prices' is simply blasphemy.
It is not blasphemous at all. It's not even religious.
Quote from: Que on August 17, 2022, 02:38:23 AMAccording to the other, the West was delusional in appeasing Putin with close economic ties, blocking Ukrainian NATO membership, and not acting decisively against Russia when it annnexed the Crimea and started a proxy war in the Donbas.
This is the warmonger outlook. For instance, what would "acting decisively" have looked like?
I seem to be the only one who thinks there are conundrums here.
There are definitely conundrums. For instance, how can the US move away from militaristic foreign policy when so much economic activity and money is on the line, and how can Europeans stop being shameless security consumers, with the smallest, weakest countries voicing the strongest support for actions they cannot undertake themselves?
Opinion Why Kyiv's 'thousand bee sting' strategy is costing Russia dearly (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/17/ukraine-indirect-approach-hitting-russians-war/)
Playing With Fire in Ukraine
The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Playing%20With%20Fire%20in%20Ukraine&utm_content=20220817&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Quote from: John J. MearsheimerUkraine, for its part, has the same goals as the Biden administration. The Ukrainians are bent on recapturing territory lost to Russia—including Crimea—and a weaker Russia is certainly less threatening to Ukraine. Furthermore, they are confident that they can win, as Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov made clear in mid-July, when he said, "Russia can definitely be defeated, and Ukraine has already shown how." His U.S. counterpart apparently agrees. "Our assistance is making a real difference on the ground," Austin said in a late July speech. "Russia thinks that it can outlast Ukraine—and outlast us. But that's just the latest in Russia's string of miscalculations."
Quote from: milk on August 17, 2022, 04:38:08 AM
I seem to be the only one who thinks there are conundrums here.
Rather, you seem to be under the misapprehension for the second time in as many weeks that people are obliged to respond to your posts in the way that you want and on your timetable. Whether it's films or Ukraine, the mistake is the same.
If there is overlap between Washington and Kyiv it's not because Ukraine doesn't have its own sufficient reasons to defend itself. I allow reasons to coincide and diverge how they may.
US policy is as militaristic as it is because global power relations, like nature, abhor a vacuum. The US can't have the economic power it has without the power to sustain it. The US does so with a remarkably small percentage of its GDP devoted to the military.
(https://i.imgur.com/xoomCU4.png)
The US has learned how to defend itself and its allies very efficiently. I appreciate that. Many seem to be unaware of this simple fact and bloviate about suzereignity. It takes all kinds.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 17, 2022, 11:01:11 AM
Actual US-alone military expenditure as a proportion of GDP in 2020 was about 3.75%
(https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data-.png?s=usa.ms.mil.xpnd.gd.zs%3aworldbank&lbl=0&v=202207200000V20220312)
...as also confirmed at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=US
That is for the top line DOD budget. It excludes the Department of Energy budget. It excludes the Department of Homeland Security budget. It excludes the Department of Veterans Affairs budget. It excludes unclassified and classified expenditures by intelligence agencies. It excludes national security related expenditures included in other federal agencies (eg, the Department of Agriculture). Actual national security spending is much higher.
People will often point to the even higher percentages of GDP devoted to the military in the past, as if that has any meaning. Aside from the fact that it demonstrates that the US economy in the post-war era has been too dependent on military spending generally, it also ignores fiscal and demographic changes. That is, the percentage of federal expenditures devoted to transfer payments keeps going up, and rising rates will very soon result in material increases in debt service outlays for the $31 trillion+ in federal debt - the weighted average maturity of Treasuries is just over five years.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 17, 2022, 11:43:33 AMIt is self-explanatory and requires no further input from you to attempt to 'clarify'.
It is true that some people prefer to use incomplete information.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 17, 2022, 11:01:11 AM
I am not sure about your graph. It has a label 'world', and shows %GDP of military expenditure at somewhere less than 2.5%.
Actual US-alone military expenditure as a proportion of GDP in 2020 was about 3.75%
(https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data-.png?s=usa.ms.mil.xpnd.gd.zs%3aworldbank&lbl=0&v=202207200000V20220312)
...as also confirmed at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=US
I'm not sure if that counts as 'remarkably small'. It's disappointing it's that high, to my mind. It is at least down from the 9%+ it was during the Vietnam years, though, so there's that...
The World Bank chart on your link is slightly different from the one I showed. It makes the same point.
The US economy is highly dependent on the effectiveness of US military spending. It's doubleplusgood that such a small portion of the budget is needed.
Considering that a huge part of the economy relies on tech developed for military purposes initially I'd say defense has 2 ways of being bang for buck efficient.
Quote from: Todd on August 17, 2022, 04:46:09 AM
There are definitely conundrums. For instance, how can the US move away from militaristic foreign policy when so much economic activity and money is on the line, and how can Europeans stop being shameless security consumers, with the smallest, weakest countries voicing the strongest support for actions they cannot undertake themselves?
I was thinking of other things as well. I mean that's so if one accepts that the U.S. should reduce the MIC (is that an accepted acronym? military industrial complex? ). I was thinking of questions about how the U.S. decides to engage in wars. I look at the 20th century and see blood on the hands of the U.S. government, from Vietnam to Indonesia to "East Pakistan," to Chile and on and on. Yet I tremble to think of a world left to the devices of Stalin and Mao. And it's a conundrum to me what to do with the world the way it is today. I'm not ready to say that the U.S. should pull itself out of everywhere, should cede the world to tyrants, yet I can't dismiss out of hand the argument that the U.S. is beholden to militarists and war profiteers and that U.S. "mistakes" are gigantic, bloody, frequent and predictable.
If it turns out that Ukraine falls this year, I will be wondering why the U.S. was there. If it succeeds, I think it will be a great triumph and a foothold for something (democracy?) in the 21st century. How far the U.S. should go in Asia is a conundrum. It's never answered clearly in the U.S. policy as far as I know, which is weird. They keep hinting, winking, etc. Does China think the U.S. will actually got to war over it? Anyway, I know in the case of China, you believe there isn't a conundrum. Maybe you could entertain what the worst fears of the other side are, to test that idea.
It's a separate conundrum in itself to discover how the U.S. can ever cut its military budget.
Here's an aside: I readily admit something about psychology that may be true for all of us: do we arrive at our convictions through reasoning and defend that reasoning? Or do we we have some sort of intuition that we are defending? I saw Jonathan Haidt discussing this. It may be that it's my intuition that I'm defending here. That's maybe what everyone does to some extent sometimes.
ETA there are people who still defend Kissinger and all his nefarious Cold War shenanigans.
Quote from: Madiel on August 17, 2022, 06:51:41 AM
Rather, you seem to be under the misapprehension for the second time in as many weeks that people are obliged to respond to your posts in the way that you want and on your timetable. Whether it's films or Ukraine, the mistake is the same.
I apologize if you feel I've imposed something out of line. I try to stay within bound but I'm not as well-read on European politics or history as everyone here. Still, I'll try to do my best not to cross the line in the future. Thanks.
Quote from: milk on August 17, 2022, 03:43:17 PMI'm not ready to say that the U.S. should pull itself out of everywhere, should cede the world to tyrants, yet I can't dismiss out of hand the argument that the U.S. is beholden to militarists and war profiteers and that U.S. "mistakes" are gigantic, bloody, frequent and predictable.
True isolationists who wish to remove the US from all foreign engagement more or less died out on December 7, 1941. Non-interventionism is very different, though people lazily and dishonestly confuse the two all the time. (Some people may very well not know the difference.) The US should massively scale back its military commitments around the world, and should focus its commitments on countries that matter, economically and geographically. US geography, so benign and helpful for the country, requires that the US must maintain a large expeditionary military, with a large navy and large air force the primary means of power projection. The US should not abandon that, though that can likewise be massively scaled back. The US can always pick and choose which conflicts to engage in, as it always does. It should choose to engage in far fewer conflicts. In can engage indirectly, funding other countries' war efforts when material interests are at stake, it can bribe foreign officials and entire governments (the bribes can be called "aid" if that makes people feel better about it), it can use economic incentives and disincentives, and so on. The US can do a lot with a much smaller military footprint.
The US would not be able to stop all monsters. That's OK. It is not the job of the United States to defend countries or to save people at all times in all places, and certainly not using military power. The US need not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy.
However, with huge economic interests involved - literally trillions of dollars are on the line each biennium - and with a crusader mentality informing liberal interventionist and neo-con policy along with more cynical motivations, the US will continue to maintain an oversized, unnecessarily large military, which it will use. Sometimes, the US may even do the right thing. That is not happening now.
Quote from: milk on August 17, 2022, 03:43:17 PMIf it turns out that Ukraine falls this year, I will be wondering why the U.S. was there. If it succeeds, I think it will be a great triumph and a foothold for something (democracy?) in the 21st century.
It is not the responsibility of the United States to promote democracy through either direct use of force or through arming select, potential allies. The US can and should offer other support for burgeoning democracies, though this should take the form of diplomatic and economic support.
In the Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukrainian democracy is of secondary importance. Russia is the enemy, and the
stated objective is to weaken Russia. Regime change in Russia may be an/the ultimate goal, but that appears unattainable. The second-best option would be to expand the American Empire yet further, adding a country on Russia's border, where the US can station or threaten to station American forces. This, in theory, could neutralize one of America's two greatest foes. But it will require additional resources be expended - permanently.
Quote from: milk on August 17, 2022, 03:43:17 PMHow far the U.S. should go in Asia is a conundrum. It's never answered clearly in the U.S. policy as far as I know, which is weird. They keep hinting, winking, etc. Does China think the U.S. will actually got to war over it?
US policy toward Taiwan is purposely ambiguous, precisely to keep the Chinese guessing and off-balance. No one in the US knows what the US will do, though alternate plans are formulated regularly. The US should not go to war with China over Taiwan. It is not worth it. The US may go to war.
Quote from: Madiel on August 17, 2022, 02:02:22 AM
This reads rather like telling people they're grieving wrongly.
And a celebration of confirmation bias.
This opinion piece is somewhat obvious and simplistic, but it also includes some useful reminders.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3599121-why-vladimir-putin-must-be-humiliated/
Quote from: LKB on August 17, 2022, 09:48:12 PM
This opinion piece is somewhat obvious and simplistic, but it also includes some useful reminders.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3599121-why-vladimir-putin-must-be-humiliated/
"It is delusional to think that he is winning the war." Interesting.
"A leader who dwells amid delusional fantasies and delights in atrocities cannot be permitted to save face. His army must be defeated, his regime must be dismantled, and he must be humiliated — completely and totally — for some Russians to come to their senses and for peace to have a chance." It begs the question: would the professor see his children or grandchildren risk their lives for this cause? Would I, would you? I'd like to see Putin gone but I doubt much good can come of U.S. fingerprints being all over it.
U.S. fingerprints are only all over it if we develop some new standard of how supporting others puts your "fingerprints" in place, that we simply haven't used in the past. Whether for the U.S. or Russia or China or Iran or any other country that is big enough to have some kind of ability to provide support to others.
Sure, there's some kind of exerting influence. Sure, in the moment there are comments about that support. But in the longer term? The history books don't spend a great deal of time discussing who was kind of sympathetic from the sidelines but didn't get directly involved.
All of the talk of how the U.S. is doing things (coming almost entirely from you-know-who) is a way of infantilising Ukraine and diminishing the agency of the Ukrainian government to make its own decisions about wanting to respond to an invasion of Ukraine. Frankly at times it seems crazy, to talk about the U.S. response to the invasion of Ukraine rather than talk about the Ukrainian response to the invasion of Ukraine, bypassing the country that is most likely to be unhappy with such an invasion. It isn't the U.S. that has made a military move to turn Ukraine into a puppet state with no independent agency. It's Russia.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 17, 2022, 08:25:12 PM
Go tell it to the World Bank. And NATO. They don't seem to have a problem with the figures.
But I had, of course, reckoned without Toddian exceptionalism.
It absolutely makes sense to exclude material expenditures that reveal the true extent of US spending.
Quote from: milk on August 18, 2022, 12:18:39 AM
"It is delusional to think that he is winning the war." Interesting.
"A leader who dwells amid delusional fantasies and delights in atrocities cannot be permitted to save face. His army must be defeated, his regime must be dismantled, and he must be humiliated — completely and totally — for some Russians to come to their senses and for peace to have a chance." It begs the question: would the professor see his children or grandchildren risk their lives for this cause? Would I, would you? I'd like to see Putin gone but I doubt much good can come of U.S. fingerprints being all over it.
Motyl's piece is a cheap potboiler. He's purportedly an academic, but he succumbs to Godwin's Law. The headline alone should garner a good number of clicks.
Quote from: Madiel on August 18, 2022, 04:34:14 AM
It isn't the U.S. that has made a military move to turn Ukraine into a puppet state with no independent agency. It's Russia.
Yeah, but you see, they've been provoked into it by the US/NATO. So, it's the US/NATO that is to be blamed, ultimately. Just ask John Mearsheimer or Pope Francis. :P
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 05:39:03 AMSo, it's the US/NATO that is to be blamed, ultimately.
For establishing the conditions for war, yes. Russia is responsible to launching the full-scale invasion in 2022, and for the initial incurions in 2014.
See, it's actually easy to get.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 05:43:59 AM
For establishing the conditions for war, yes.
How did the US establish the conditions for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, pray tell?
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 05:56:33 AM
How did the US establish the conditions for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, pray tell?
You know because it has been covered hundreds of times before.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 06:03:12 AM
You know because it has been covered hundreds of times before.
I could have safely bet my life on getting precisely this answer.
Anyway, if you refer to the NATO expansion towards Eastern Europe (read: Eastern European countries being only too eager to join voluntarily and as quickl as possible), I'd like to know how Ukraine not being even an official candidate for, let alone on the shortcut path to, NATO membership could have set up the necessary and sufficient conditions for the Russian invasion.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 06:08:12 AM
I could have safely bet my life on getting precisely this answer.
Anyway, if you refer to the NATO expansion towards Eastern Europe (read: Eastern European countries being only too eager to join voluntarily and as quickl as possible), I'd like to know how Ukraine not being even an official candidate for, let alone on the shortcut path to, NATO membership could have set up the necessary and sufficient conditions for the Russian invasion.
Yes, you can pretend this has not been covered before.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 06:14:10 AM
Yes, you can pretend this has not been covered before.
Oh, sure, my bad. John Mearsheimer wrote extensively about it. Pope Francis uttered a word or two as well. Heck, even Cyril Ramaphosa talked about it. Not to mention Margarita Simonyan.
One last question, if I may: do you think that Russians are justified in their invasion of Ukraine and that none of their own actions prior to that contributed in any way to setting up the conditions for it, ie the US/NATO is the sole and only responsible for it? Okay, two questions.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 06:27:32 AM
Oh, sure, my bad. John Mearsheimer wrote extensively about it. Pope Francis uttered a word or two as well. Heck, even Cyril Ramaphosa talked about it. Not to mention Margarita Simonyan.
One last question, if I may: do you think that Russians are justified in their invasion of Ukraine and that none of their own actions prior to that contributed in any way to setting up the conditions for it, ie the US/NATO is the sole and only responsible for it? Okay, two questions.
Again, you can pretend this has not been covered before.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 06:34:18 AM
Again, you can pretend this has not been covered before.
Not by you, in any case. You routinely lay the blame on the US door but never utter a word about Russia's own actions and responsibility.
Actually, never mind. I should have known better than trying to get you to answer a question with something more than a snide one-liner.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 06:43:25 AMNot by you, in any case. You routinely lay the blame on the US door but never utter a word about Russia's own actions and responsibility.
Incorrect. You can continue pretending otherwise, and you will.
It's remarkable that the US can get away with spending only 3.74% compared to the world figure of 2.5%.
The US figure represents a world wide defense network that makes it possible for network players to keep their own spending lower than otherwise. US spending is not only efficient in terms of how much lower current spending is than at any time since WWII, or how much it contributes to the civilian technology base, but also how much it frees up resources in many other countries that could not spend as efficiently if they had to. By allocating the burden where it is most efficiently carried, the world is more prosperous. Countries can make what they are good at making, not aircraft carriers or stealth fighters.
Quote from: milk on August 18, 2022, 07:00:58 AMIf Ukraine wins it will get the credit definitely.
What does victory look like?
Quote from: Madiel on August 17, 2022, 02:02:22 AM
This reads rather like telling people they're grieving wrongly.
Quote from: Herman on August 17, 2022, 04:52:19 PM
And a celebration of confirmation bias.
I just reported a fact. And I was not the only one to notice a certain discrepancy between those people's presumed status (war refugees) and their carefree behaviour. Once again: I am sure that none of those people entered Romania in the numerous km-long queues of walking people carrying luggages on their back and children in their hand for whom they often had no papers at all. They must have entered Romania by car (lots of Ukraine-registered luxurious cars in the streets of Romania as of late) and they certainly have enough money to live by.
Look, I was and remain a staunch supporter of receiving every single Ukrainian person who ask for our help and flees the war but my deepest sympathy lies with the people in the queues rather than with the people I reported on.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 07:33:16 AM
What does victory look like?
I don't really know. I guess Zelenski stays and Russias loses ground and influence? Whatever Russia wants they don't get? They lose control militarily, they have to pull back and they are too broken militarily to return. Ukraine can recover previously lost territory? You could probably tell me what Russia is fighting to hold onto.
ETA I might have deleted my previous comment by mistake.
Quote from: Madiel on August 18, 2022, 04:34:14 AM
U.S. fingerprints are only all over it if we develop some new standard of how supporting others puts your "fingerprints" in place, that we simply haven't used in the past. Whether for the U.S. or Russia or China or Iran or any other country that is big enough to have some kind of ability to provide support to others.
Sure, there's some kind of exerting influence. Sure, in the moment there are comments about that support. But in the longer term? The history books don't spend a great deal of time discussing who was kind of sympathetic from the sidelines but didn't get directly involved.
All of the talk of how the U.S. is doing things (coming almost entirely from you-know-who) is a way of infantilising Ukraine and diminishing the agency of the Ukrainian government to make its own decisions about wanting to respond to an invasion of Ukraine. Frankly at times it seems crazy, to talk about the U.S. response to the invasion of Ukraine rather than talk about the Ukrainian response to the invasion of Ukraine, bypassing the country that is most likely to be unhappy with such an invasion. It isn't the U.S. that has made a military move to turn Ukraine into a puppet state with no independent agency. It's Russia.
I was thinking of the hyperbolic Hill article. Ukraine definitely gets credit if it survives as an independent country that gets to make its own allies and destiny and remains free of Russian influence. But it seems like a bigger task to humiliate Putin and the Russian political establishment, to destroy it. Americans might have to get their hands dirty for that? I don't know. The Hill says we can't negotiate for Russia to save face. Is this wise? I mean, if we're going to compare everything to WW2 then we can also say that humiliated countries don't make nice neighbors?
Quote from: milk on August 18, 2022, 07:51:36 AM
I don't really know. I guess Zelenski stays and Russias loses ground and influence? Whatever Russia wants they don't get? They lose control militarily, they have to pull back and they are too broken militarily to return ...
... or Putin dies of cancer and the next despot is too busy for a while being domestically despotic to engage in silly frolics like invading foreign countries.
Quote from: milk on August 18, 2022, 07:51:36 AM
I don't really know. I guess Zelenski stays
Actually, this is an interesting topic. If Putin really wants Zelensky out at all costs, why is it that he does basically nothing in this respect? I should have expected a massive attack on, and a tight blockade on, Kyiv itself --- plus massive and repetead aerial strikes on the Presidential Palace or any other location, including bunkers, where Zelensky might hide. Nothing of the sort happened. I do wonder why.
On the first day of the war Russia tried to storm the presidential compound, sending paratroopers to seize the airport in Kiev. Then the Russians were driven out of the airport and the Blitzkrieg turned into the famous 40 mile armored column on the road to Kiev that didn't move.
Quote from: milk on August 18, 2022, 07:51:36 AM
Ukraine definitely gets credit if it survives as an independent country that gets to make its own allies and destiny and remains free of Russian influence. But it seems like a bigger task to humiliate Putin and the Russian political establishment, to destroy it.
I don't see a difference here. Is there a way for Ukraine to prevail that doesn't humiliate Putin etc?
If Russia remains determined to be a bad neighbor does that show centuries of humiliation have warped the national psyche? One might argue that the existence of modern Europe has preyed on Russian minds since Peter the Great. The invasions by Sweden, France and Germany solidified the Russian view that they must conquer their neighbors to block the invasion routes. Let it not be said that Russian viewpoints can't be understood. Similar views have been held in Germany. The solution to the dual problems of Germany and Russia is NATO. This has worked well for Germany, while Russia chose confrontation over cooperation and created the Soviet version of traditional imperial Russian design. I judge offering benefits over brute force worked better. NATO thrives, the Warsaw Pact is bye bye, and the Ukraine adventure is a disaster in the making.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 18, 2022, 08:21:18 AM
On the first day of the war Russia tried to storm the presidential compound, sending paratroopers to seize the airport in Kiev. Then the Russians were driven out of the airport and the Blitzkrieg turned into the famous 40 mile armored column on the road to Kiev that didn't move.
So, is it actually true that the Russian Army is ultimately incompetent?
Quote from: milk on August 18, 2022, 07:51:36 AMI don't really know.
No one does. And of course Ukraine can't really win in any real sense. It has already absorbed more than a trillion dollars in damage and suffered tens of thousands of deaths. The 2020s are lost, and if the war lasts much longer, the 2030s may be as well. Ukraine could become the next Japan, with multiple lost decades, though of a much worse sort than what Japan faced.
Then again, post-war reconstruction could herald a new age - not only Ukrainian rebirth, but a Greater Black Sea Renaissance, where arts and culture and science and economies thrive as the region joins the world's elite regions, Russia remains pacified, China stays uninvolved, and the mighty and beneficent United States of America welcomes Ukraine into the brotherhood of nations as an equal partner in the promotion of democracy, liberalism, and justice.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 08:47:25 AM
a Greater Black Sea Renaissance, where arts and culture and science and economies thrive as the region joins the world's elite regions, Russia remains pacified, China stays uninvolved, and the mighty and beneficent United States of America welcomes Ukraine into the brotherhood of nations as an equal partner in the promotion of democracy, liberalism, and justice.
Ojalá!
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 08:33:15 AM
So, is it actually true that the Russian Army is ultimately incompetent?
Maybe just that the Ukrainian Army is not as incompetent as the Russian strategy assumed it would be.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 18, 2022, 08:59:32 AMWhat madness is it to take on someone that has a military budget ten times yours?!
Russia maintains a larger nuclear deterrent than the US, which limits US responses and allows Russia a degree of freedom of action in most of the Eurasian landmass. The sheer size of military budgets, it turns out, is not particularly deterministic. As another example, see the Taliban, which defeated the United States.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 09:05:07 AM
the Taliban, which defeated the United States.
The Taliban defeated both the USSR and the US --- a feature that will probably remain unique in the annals of history.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 09:36:24 AM
The Taliban defeated both the USSR and the US --- no small feature, to be sure.
The Taliban formed in 1994.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 09:38:18 AM
The Taliban formed in 1994.
Formally.
If by Taliban one understands Afghan Islamist forces opposing the Russian-backed Afghan Communist regime and the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, then the Taliban defeated the USSR.
Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 08:33:15 AM
So, is it actually true that the Russian Army is ultimately incompetent?
There's been innumerable examples published during the war, from all levels. Here's one story from yesterday, by the soldier Filatev, his ZOV-text, and it's taking incompetence to a very high level; the corruption is absurd:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1560022545356791810
https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1560279040971313153
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/i-dont-see-justice-in-this-war-russian-soldier-exposes-rot-at-core-of-ukraine-invasion
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/they-turned-us-into-savages-russian-soldier-describes-start-of-ukraine-invasion
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1560242779602788354
(Ukrainians however tend to point to, how better conditions in Russian the army might have made him busily engaged in the invasion nowadays, without any remorse; he is not a hero)
Here's how much the Russian troops have advanced since the 10th of July (you might need a magnifying glass); they've resolved mostly to long distance bombing, or to failed, local advances:
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1560042023738134528/photo/1
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 09:44:00 AM
The Mujahideen defeated the USSR.
And eventually many prominent Mujahideen leaders supported or even joined the Taliban.
Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 09:48:47 AM
And eventually many prominent Mujahideen leaders supported or even joined the Taliban.
Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.
The Mujahideen defeated the USSR.
Afghanistan suffered through two civil wars after 1989.
The Taliban formed in 1994.
The Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 1996.
The Taliban defeated the USA.
The Mujahideen was different than the Taliban.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 09:55:49 AM
The Mujahideen was different than the Taliban.
They were both Islamist.
Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 10:12:47 AM
They were both Islamist.
Be it as it might, Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.
I will make sure to turn to you when I need to verify facts about Afghanistan.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 10:18:19 AM
I will make sure to turn to you when I need to verify facts about Afghanistan.
It is a fact that Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 10:20:56 AM
It is a fact that Afghan Islamist forces under whatever name defeated both the USSR and the US.
You wrote that the Taliban defeated the USSR. I get it, I get it.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 18, 2022, 10:40:28 AMI'm not claiming the size of one's military budget is deterministic. That's you making stuff up again.
Incorrect. You used the word "madness" in your poorly conceived rhetorical question pertaining to defense budget disparities and the influence that has or should have on waging war. The clear implication is that a significantly larger budget necessarily confers some insurmountable benefits and power to the country with the larger budget, that victory is all but assured, that such financial disparity is in practice deterministic. Yet now you yourself post another example of a much smaller country with a much smaller budget taking on a much more powerful and much wealthier foe and winning. Clearly, it is
not madness to go to war with a country with an order of magnitude larger (or even larger) military budget. Countries with smaller military budgets can win wars. That may include Russia in the current war.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 04:57:12 AM
It absolutely makes sense to exclude material expenditures that reveal the true extent of US spending.
Motyl's piece is a cheap potboiler. He's purportedly an academic, but he succumbs to Godwin's Law. The headline alone should garner a good number of clicks.
As you're obviously not shy about dismissing Mr. Motyl, I'll assume you have comparable professional expertise in the same fields: political science and specialist knowledge on Ukraine, Russia, and the Soviet Union.
So, here's your opportunity to enumerate your qualifications, Todd: Please provide one or more links to periodicals, research or other academic products concerning the above for which you can claim authorship.
Quote from: LKB on August 18, 2022, 11:10:38 AM
As you're obviously not shy about dismissing Mr. Motyl, I'll assume you have comparable professional expertise in the same fields: political science and specialist knowledge on Ukraine, Russia, and the Soviet Union.
So, here's your opportunity to enumerate your qualifications, Todd: Please provide one or more links to periodicals, research or other academic products concerning the above for which you can claim authorship.
The article you linked is a clickbait op-ed published in The Hill. At least try to link to a red-meat piece in The New York Times.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 11:31:50 AM
The article you linked is a clickbait op-ed published in The Hill. At least try to link to a red-meat piece in The New York Times.
Another evasion... shocker.
Quote from: LKB on August 18, 2022, 11:43:58 AM
Another evasion... shocker.
You do remember that you yourself wrote that the piece is simplistic, yes?
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 11:46:58 AM
You do remember that you yourself wrote that the piece is simplistic, yes?
You conspicuously evaded the last paragraph of his post and you know it alright. You can go on pretending you didn't. You will go on pretending you didn't.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 11:51:13 AM
You conspicuously evaded the last paragraph of his post and you know it alright. You can go on pretending you didn't. You will go on pretending you didn't.
Still smarting over your Taliban goof?
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 11:54:26 AM
Still smarting over your Taliban goof?
Tbh, I do fear I won't be sleeping well for a few coming days.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 12:09:48 PM
Tbh, I do fear I won't be sleeping well for a few coming days.
That is unfortunate.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 12:10:39 PM
That is unfortunate.
I survived far worse situations. Thanks for your compassion anyway.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 18, 2022, 12:49:19 PMBut in the long run, on the average, and with a combatant who's prepared to stick it out long enough, anyone thinking they can compete with someone outspending them 10 to 1 is indeed mad.
So spending doesn't matter but it does.
And just what does "on the average" mean?
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 12:56:38 PM
So spending doesn't matter but it does.
And just what does "on the average" mean?
His meaning is crystal clear to everyone here except you, apparently. Let's just move along, shall we?
GB
Quote from: Jo498 on August 16, 2022, 01:34:40 PM
the most despicable bunch heading Germany since 1945
Woa, woa, woa! That's quite the claim, guys --- I'm flabbergasted nobody noticed it!
Please, care to elaborate on this,
Jo? What is it that makes Scholz and his team the most despicable German government since Hitler?
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 05:39:03 AM
Yeah, but you see, they've been provoked into it by the US/NATO. So, it's the US/NATO that is to be blamed, ultimately. Just ask John Mearsheimer or Pope Francis. :P
She was asking for it when she wore that dress.
Or maybe this is better. Russia is the husband, of course. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51122841_Victim_Blaming_and_Exoneration_of_the_Perpetrator_in_Domestic_Violence_The_Role_of_Beliefs_in_a_Just_World_and_Ambivalent_Sexism
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 12:56:38 PM
And just what does "on the average" mean?
I read it as "all else being equal" or something to that effect.
Quote from: Todd on August 18, 2022, 08:47:25 AM
No one does. And of course Ukraine can't really win in any real sense. It has already absorbed more than a trillion dollars in damage and suffered tens of thousands of deaths. The 2020s are lost, and if the war lasts much longer, the 2030s may be as well. Ukraine could become the next Japan, with multiple lost decades, though of a much worse sort than what Japan faced.
Then again, post-war reconstruction could herald a new age - not only Ukrainian rebirth, but a Greater Black Sea Renaissance, where arts and culture and science and economies thrive as the region joins the world's elite regions, Russia remains pacified, China stays uninvolved, and the mighty and beneficent United States of America welcomes Ukraine into the brotherhood of nations as an equal partner in the promotion of democracy, liberalism, and justice.
Perhaps true for the Ukraine. Still, I look ahead to the region where I make my home, east Asia, and can see the other side. You can hate the U.S. folly. But the Chinese folly is no better. 5000 years of civilization for what? I don't say that as a "crusader" but seeing what the government apologists are on about. The people here will only agree to live under it, such as it is, at the point of a gun. So much for China. Others here can speak to whether Russia is much the same or not.
Quote from: milk on August 19, 2022, 01:52:31 AMBut the Chinese folly is no better.
It appears worse. That in no way means the US should involve itself in Asian affairs as much as it does, let alone more.
Quote from: Todd on August 19, 2022, 04:56:17 AM
It appears worse. That in no way means the US should involve itself in Asian affairs as much as it does, let alone more.
I agree it doesn't
necessarily mean that the U.S. should involve itself. I have to think about it but that alone isn't enough.
Quote from: milk on August 19, 2022, 05:25:23 AM
I agree it doesn't necessarily mean that the U.S. should involve itself. I have to think about it but that alone isn't enough.
The US should only involve itself to the extent that treaty allies face actual, direct military threats from China, and to the extent that key economic interests are threatened. Here, I mean the free flow of trade involving US domiciled companies must not be impeded. Chinese control of sea lanes in the region might not threaten the free flow of trade involving US domiciled companies. Also, it is always worth mentioning that the US does not have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan.
It is not the responsibility of the United States to defend democracy or institutions in countries that are not treaty allies, nor is it the responsibility of the United States to protect or promote human rights in the region. Asian countries should determine their own paths, and if it makes strategic or economic sense for the US to partner with said countries, then the US should do so, but if it does not make strategic or economic sense, then the US can offer diplomatic support and perhaps write a few checks, but otherwise it should stay uninvolved.
All security relationships should be constantly assessed. It may be appropriate to expand, reduce, or even eliminate some security relationships over time. Treaties do not and should not last forever.
The US is very involved in parts of the world where it has vital interests. Unlike most countries, this is everywhere. With great power comes great.....suzereignity?
Here's how the US can abdicate from its role. It's easy, even a crankitarian can understand it. All the US has to do is become weak even faster than Russia and China. I suggest scrapping the aircraft carriers, putting shrinksters in permanent charge of the economy and canceling military and economic agreements with our non-weakling trading partners. There, it's done.
I don't see any advantage for me in such a drastic course change. What would motivate it? What would the consequences be for the real value of my holdings?
Belgorod go boom. I surmise that the Ukes don't have the forces for a direct counterattack on the Russian lines in the south and east. Instead they are hollowing out the Russian positions by destroying everything behind the Russian positions that they can reach. This means that when the Ukes do attack, the Russians will have no choice but to retreat. Since bridges have been heavily damaged, the Russians will have to abandon their vehicles and escape on foot, or they'll have to surrender.
If they manage to reach Crimea they might be able to get back to Russia, if the Russians permit their return, or if the last bridge hasn't been destroyed. I hope the Ukes don't destroy the Kerch bridge. It's a really great bridge and would be quite useful to the Greater Ukraine that might emerge from this war.
"Annual maintenance"..... ::)
Gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 to be halted for 3 days, Russian state energy company says
From CNN's Maija Ehlinger
Natural gas supplies to Europe through Russia's Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be suspended from Aug. 31 through Sept. 2, according to a statement on Friday from the Russian state energy giant Gazprom.
Friday's announcement comes after the Nord Stream 1 pipeline was shut down for 10 days in late July for "annual maintenance."
The crucial pipeline had already been running at less than 40% capacity, prompting concerns that Russia is deliberately choking supplies of gas to Europe in an energy stand-off following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Quote from: Que on August 19, 2022, 12:40:38 PM"Annual maintenance"..... ::)
Why did so many European countries willingly put themselves in a position to be dependent on Russian resources?
Quote from: Todd on August 19, 2022, 12:51:22 PM
Why did so many European countries willingly put themselves in a position to be dependent on Russian resources?
Yes, it's amazing how many gullible people can trust a criminal sociopath with the future welfare of their country and then act surprised when they try to choke off your resources or execute a coup or whatnot. One born every minute I guess.
Quote from: BasilValentine on August 19, 2022, 01:09:44 PM
Yes, it's amazing how many gullible people can trust a criminal sociopath with the future welfare of their country and then act surprised when they try to choke off your resources or execute a coup or whatnot. One born every minute I guess.
They didn't listen to the Yankee Bully that forces them to obey. It's a puzzlement.
Quote from: Florestan on August 18, 2022, 01:09:31 PM
Woa, woa, woa! That's quite the claim, guys --- I'm flabbergasted nobody noticed it!
Please, care to elaborate on this, Jo? What is it that makes Scholz and his team the most despicable German government since Hitler?
Admittedly, Merkel was almost as bad, certainly since 2011 (with a completely idiotic 180° degree turn because a tsunami in Japan suddenly made German nuclear power unsafe, and this from a "physicist", actually one of the most disgusting opportunists ever). They don't care for their people. (Kohl was a fat pig and also a bit corrupt, but he cared for his people and country and would not openly sacrifice them for the benefit of globalist corporations or foreign wars etc.) And they are utterly corrupt and dishonest. Scholz should never have become a candidate in the first place because he clearly was involved in letting a Hamburg private bank get away with tax fraud (when he was a local politican there a few years ago).
But in the context of this thread, it is IMO high treason to sacrifice the well-being of the people they govern for "supporting Ukraine". Even apart from the fact that the "sanctions" are virtually useless. Even if they worked, it would not be right. (But as they don't, it's a crime acting like that.) Whatever support one might give (and this is another debatable question) one cannot risk the provision with energy and resources of the own people because some other countries are at war. You cannot force your own people into sharply declining living standards for the dubious benefit of supporting a war party.
And they (i.e. the three governments before led by Merkel but usually supported by the Scholz party) have done this with the banksters in 2008-09, with the migrants in/since 2015, all the time with "EUrope" and all the time with "climate/environment" (again often with lots of fraud, overall useless measures, people benefitting from subsidies etc.). And don't get me started on the pharmaceutical coup of the millenium that made The Third Man Harry Lime look like a choirboy, I know most people in this forum fell for it, so I am not starting another such debate... Everything is more important (and has a higher "moral status") than caring for normal people of your populace. But the lies and measures around the Ukraine war might be, I think, the summit.
These guys now they are smearing everyone who supports values that were completely mainstream 30 years ago (like traditional families or having a positive attitude to one's culture or not caring for open borders and poorly controlled migration of undesirables) as "rightwing extremists" but have no trouble to support actual nazi sympathizers in Ukraine (and of course we have been giving millions in "developmental help" to other terrorists, like Hamas for decades). If you fly a German flag you are suspicious, but Rainbow or Ukraine flags are great. I am no fan of any flags but the hypocrisy and utter falseness of these people beggars belief.
So yes, I think there should be another Nuremberg trial (and a similar one for the "pharmacists"). But of course there will not be. They are losers but still on the winning side, so for now they write the history.
Quote from: Todd on August 19, 2022, 12:51:22 PM
Why did so many European countries willingly put themselves in a position to be dependent on Russian resources?
Convenience (cheap, less poluting than oil or coal, and a way to avoid nuclear energy) and the belief that close economic ties would pacify the relationship with Russia.
"Wandel durch Handel", the Germans called it. But you already knew that... The odd ones out were the French, that have always considered their nuclear industry of strategic importance. A legacy of Charles de Gaulle.
Quote from: Que on August 19, 2022, 10:24:17 PMConvenience (cheap, less poluting than oil or coal, and a way to avoid nuclear energy) and the belief that close economic ties would pacify the relationship with Russia. "Wandel durch Handel", the Germans called it. But you already knew that...
Indeed, just as I know any rational leader would retaliate against the continent imposing economic sanctions while leaving itself exposed. Europeans apparently believe they can blackmail Russia without Russia blackmailing Europe in response.
A correlated follow-up question is why have European leaders, despite their publicly bold commitment to renewable energy, materially slowed annual investment in renewable energy since 2011, and given Europe's actual track record, is there any reason to believe that the brave pronouncements of new steps guaranteeing independence from Russian energy will work?
Finland, Sweden offer NATO an edge as rivalry warms up north (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-sweden-finland-climate-and-environment-726570f7c9dd3f564255f395fee7e577)
The AP offers a full-throated propaganda piece almost as laudatory as reports about western heroism that once came from embedded journalists.
To its credit, the article does emphasize one of the big prizes in the newest round of NATO expansion:
Quote from: Ellen KnickmeyerLikewise, Russia will become the only non-NATO member among countries with claims to Arctic territory, and the only non-NATO member of the Atlantic Council, an eight-member international forum created for Arctic issues.
(https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.78d3b6e3c67bc10d05dd89ea07e7f4f2?rik=EX2BnIVAL2r%2bfA&pid=ImgRaw&r=0)
Europe has grown tired of making mistakes that embolden Russia. It's time to make different mistakes. Sweden and Finland will help, as even when they were outside the club they were not presupposing Russia was not a mafia state. I agree it's odd that Germany would bamboozle itself like it did instead of taking sound advice from the Yankee Bully.
Putin Is LOVING This Big Mistake the West Is Making, Russian Dissidents Warn (https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-dissidents-warn-europes-travel-bans-against-russians-are-actually-helping-vladimir-putin?ref=home)
Kremlin critics the world over are rallying against moves by some European countries to slap Russian citizens with travel bans, arguing that it will have the opposite effect of ramping up pressure on Vladimir Putin to put an end to the war in Ukraine.
A slew of prominent public figures in Russia, including celebrities, politicians and journalists with anti-war views, have insisted that such bans will backfire. "Do they believe that furious Russians left without EU visas would grab a pitchfork and attack the Kremlin? No, they will not," Russian rock musician Andrew Makarevich said earlier this week.
Many Russians are already suffering from the ban. When Russian media manager Igor Zabotin attempted to enter Romania from Ukraine on Tuesday, Ukrainian border guards stamped his passport with the words: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself," a slogan popularized by Ukrainian servicemen who said the phrase to a Russian military ship near Snake Island in the earlier days of the war.
I agree this is a bad move. The correct posture is to lean in favor of welcoming Russians and make exceptions where necessary.
Quote from: Que on August 19, 2022, 10:24:17 PM
Convenience (cheap, less poluting than oil or coal, and a way to avoid nuclear energy) and the belief that close economic ties would pacify the relationship with Russia. "Wandel durch Handel", the Germans called it. But you already knew that... The odd ones out were the French, that have always considered their nuclear industry of strategic importance. A legacy of Charles de Gaulle.
Well, all the West, I suppose, wanted to think that treating Russia as a friendly partner would serve to encourage the rise of a healthy democracy. We failed to reckon on the iron grip of the oligarchs in league with the slightly-dormant Communists. And now, a nescent thugocracy in the US ....
The Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol was hit by a drone on the day the new commander arrived, which happened to be today, 8/20. Why the Russians consider Sevastopol a good place for a headquarters is beyond me. Shouldn't they skedaddle back to Novorossiysk while they are still not entirely dead? I'm just asking is all.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 20, 2022, 08:51:39 AM
Russia is not our friend right now; everyday Russians should experience the consequences.
They do face the consequences. I wouldn't push too hard on the collective guilt thing, if only for practical reasons. Putin (and his apologists) would like all Russians to believe the West hates Russians and not the mafia state he runs. Let's not give him ammunition. It's dum. Besides, as far as I can tell Russian people are not hated.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 20, 2022, 11:07:56 AMBut if they keep on being able to throw their hand in the air and exclaim, 'it's the boss, not me'. they'll never get the point.
What is the point?
When the mob enforcer visits the dry cleaner to collect his cut or else, we can agree that's a consequence of his unwillingness to fight back. Also he may face the further consequence of being barred from entering another country because he tolerates the actions of mobsters. Why didn't he have the guts to fight back?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 20, 2022, 11:11:33 AM
Go away Todd. You know precisely what the point is, and if you don't you're as dumb as Ivan.
I do not know what the point is, which is why I asked.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 20, 2022, 11:24:00 AM
Well, live in your ignorance then. Others don't seem quite so intellectually challenged on the matter.
A dispassionate response.
Quote from: drogulus on August 20, 2022, 10:50:44 AM
They do face the consequences. I wouldn't push too hard on the collective guilt thing, if only for practical reasons. Putin (and his apologists) would like all Russians to believe the West hates Russians and not the mafia state he runs. Let's not give him ammunition. It's dum. Besides, as far as I can tell Russian people are not hated.
Yes. I don't see how creating more hostility with people, especially people who really don't have much of a say, accomplishes anything. I guess I could be persuaded in limited circumstances. Did anyone boycott the U.S. during the Vietnam war? If they did, I doubt it made a mark.
Quote from: milk on August 20, 2022, 03:16:50 PM
Yes. I don't see how creating more hostility with people, especially people who really don't have much of a say, accomplishes anything. I guess I could be persuaded in limited circumstances. Did anyone boycott the U.S. during the Vietnam war? If they did, I doubt it made a mark.
Mind you, in spite of the protests, Nixon was largely right about the "silent majority."
There's a most excellent drone, the Revolver 860. It can drop multiple grenades on targets.The Ukes got them from (drum roll) Taiwan!!
(https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2022/08/18/1660812104-62fdfb48e558d.png)
How can you not love a story like that? Here's little Taiwan, under threat by the lying Commie bastards of the mainland defending a country on the other side of the world from the mafiosi allied with the same lying Commies. This is a wonderful world.
Quote from: drogulus on August 20, 2022, 03:29:10 PM
There's a most excellent drone, the Revolver 860. It can drop multiple grenades on targets.The Ukes got them from (drum roll) Taiwan!!
(https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2022/08/18/1660812104-62fdfb48e558d.png)
How can you not love a story like that? Here's little Taiwan, under threat by the lying Commie bastards of the mainland defending a country on the other side of the world from the mafiosi allied with the same lying Commies. This is a wonderful world.
My favorite story of the week, thanks Drogulus. Nice to see my old friends supporting the righteous, you've warned the cockles of this old Crusader's cold, cold heart.
Quote from: Jo498 on August 19, 2022, 02:09:19 PM
Admittedly, Merkel was almost as bad, certainly since 2011 (with a completely idiotic 180° degree turn because a tsunami in Japan suddenly made German nuclear power unsafe, and this from a "physicist", actually one of the most disgusting opportunists ever). They don't care for their people. (Kohl was a fat pig and also a bit corrupt, but he cared for his people and country and would not openly sacrifice them for the benefit of globalist corporations or foreign wars etc.) And they are utterly corrupt and dishonest. Scholz should never have become a candidate in the first place because he clearly was involved in letting a Hamburg private bank get away with tax fraud (when he was a local politican there a few years ago).
But in the context of this thread, it is IMO high treason to sacrifice the well-being of the people they govern for "supporting Ukraine". Even apart from the fact that the "sanctions" are virtually useless. Even if they worked, it would not be right. (But as they don't, it's a crime acting like that.) Whatever support one might give (and this is another debatable question) one cannot risk the provision with energy and resources of the own people because some other countries are at war. You cannot force your own people into sharply declining living standards for the dubious benefit of supporting a war party.
And they (i.e. the three governments before led by Merkel but usually supported by the Scholz party) have done this with the banksters in 2008-09, with the migrants in/since 2015, all the time with "EUrope" and all the time with "climate/environment" (again often with lots of fraud, overall useless measures, people benefitting from subsidies etc.). And don't get me started on the pharmaceutical coup of the millenium that made The Third Man Harry Lime look like a choirboy, I know most people in this forum fell for it, so I am not starting another such debate... Everything is more important (and has a higher "moral status") than caring for normal people of your populace. But the lies and measures around the Ukraine war might be, I think, the summit.
These guys now they are smearing everyone who supports values that were completely mainstream 30 years ago (like traditional families or having a positive attitude to one's culture or not caring for open borders and poorly controlled migration of undesirables) as "rightwing extremists" but have no trouble to support actual nazi sympathizers in Ukraine (and of course we have been giving millions in "developmental help" to other terrorists, like Hamas for decades). If you fly a German flag you are suspicious, but Rainbow or Ukraine flags are great. I am no fan of any flags but the hypocrisy and utter falseness of these people beggars belief.
So yes, I think there should be another Nuremberg trial (and a similar one for the "pharmacists"). But of course there will not be. They are losers but still on the winning side, so for now they write the history.
Thank you for your detailed reply, Jo, I see your point now. I think that many of those grievances are not specific to Germany and that actually many European nations could lay them at their own governments' door.
Darya Dugina: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow blast (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62621509)
Quote from: Todd on August 21, 2022, 07:24:23 AM
Darya Dugina: Daughter of Putin ally killed in Moscow blast (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62621509)
I noticed as well...
The biggest question is: who? The Ukrainians, as the Donbas seperatists claim?
I doubt it. A covert operation in Moscow seems very hard to pull off and the Ukrainians have a lot of other worries much higher on their priority list.
The alternative is a domestic party, which would open a range of possibilities.
Quote from: Que on August 21, 2022, 07:37:17 AMThe alternative is a domestic party, which would open a range of possibilities.
Another alternative is the CIA or one of its partners in covert crime - eg, Mossad, MI6. Or it could be Putin. Or it could be staged.
Whatever the truth, which we will never know, it will likely end up being used as justification for an internal crackdown and/or intensified action in Ukraine.
Quote from: Todd on August 21, 2022, 08:26:09 AM
Another alternative is the CIA or one of its partners in covert crime - eg, Mossad, MI6. Or it could be Putin. Or it could be staged.
Whatever the truth, which we will never know, it will likely end up being used as justification for an internal crackdown and/or intensified action in Ukraine.
It could be Putin. Either Western intelligence or Mossad wouldn't make any sense.
I agree we are probably going to witness an internal crackdown. Will be interesting to follow events... something is cooking...
Quote from: Que on August 21, 2022, 08:53:32 AMEither Western intelligence or Mossad wouldn't make any sense.
Depends on the objective. Intense escalation leading to more direct US involvement could be a/the desired outcome. It is unlikely, but possible.
Serbia warns it will protect Kosovo Serbs if NATO doesn't (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-kosovo-european-union-aleksandar-vucic-ef54528afbd5c73572a38230d0c13009)
Quote from: Dusan StojanovicThere are widespread fears in the West that Russia could encourage its ally Serbia into an armed intervention in northern Kosovo that would further destabilize the Balkans and shift at least some world and NATO attention from Russia's war in Ukraine.
Russia rules out peace deal to end Ukraine war (https://www.ft.com/content/c9381570-5e3c-4e89-a5a0-7a98bbd880f6?amp;sharetype=gift&)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FavDechaAAUxUBh?format=jpg&name=medium)
Dugin wants revenge for the killing of his daughter. Apparently "denazification" is a one way street.
Ukraine has denied involvement in the bombing. An interesting fact is that the security cameras at the site of the bombing had been disabled.
From a Bulwark article:
To complicate things further, Ilya Ponomarev, an anti-Putin former member of the Russian parliament who is now based in Kyiv, has said that Dugina's death was the work of an anti-Putin underground group calling itself the National Republican Army which contacted him several hours before the bombing. The group's statement, which Ponomarev read on Ukrainian television, does not mention Dugina or her father, though it does say that the group intends to strike at war propagandists, as well as government officials and pro-regime business owners. However, Ponomarev says that the people who gave him the statement also told him to expect an attack and provided enough details that their involvement was not in doubt. But is this an actual underground group—or part of a disinformation effort designed to draw attention away from the real culprits?
"The fact that security cameras were disabled suggests that it's an inside job," Victor Davidoff, editor of the dissident site New Times, told me in a Skype interview. Davidoff is convinced that the assassination targeted Dugin, not his daughter, and was likely a sign of an internal war between Kremlin "clans"—or, as he put it, "Kremlin towers": for instance, the FSB versus military intelligence, to which Dugin is rumored to have ties. Davidoff also believes that this points to some serious trouble in the regime's upper echelons: "How can the empire hold on when such things are happening on the inside?"
I'm not convinced it was an inside job. Carrying out a bombing in Russia could be a Uke operation, while disabling the security cameras would clearly cast doubt on that thesis.
Let me suggest that Putin is in trouble over his conduct of the war. He's pincered between opposing camps of mongers, both peace and war. The peace faction thinks the war was a mistake from the outset, the war faction thinks the war was necessary and Putin is failing to win it. What's interesting is that there's no middle position to take. What would that be, I refuse to wonder?
The traditional way to resolve such conflicts is assassination. I don't know anything about the group that claimed responsibility for the bombing. They call themselves the National Republican Army.
Quote from: drogulus on August 22, 2022, 07:51:19 AM
"The fact that security cameras were disabled suggests that it's an inside job," Victor Davidoff, editor of the dissident site New Times, told me in a Skype interview. Davidoff is convinced that the assassination targeted Dugin, not his daughter, and was likely a sign of an internal war between Kremlin "clans"—or, as he put it, "Kremlin towers": for instance, the FSB versus military intelligence, to which Dugin is rumored to have ties. Davidoff also believes that this points to some serious trouble in the regime's upper echelons: "How can the empire hold on when such things are happening on the inside?"[/i]
That makes a lot of sense, especially the bolded part. Any other theory (CIA, Mossad, MI5, the Klingonian Secret Service) makes no sense at all. At all.
Quote from: Florestan on August 22, 2022, 08:45:09 AM
That makes a lot of sense, especially the bolded part. Any other theory (CIA, Mossad, MI5, the Klingonian Secret Service) makes no sense at all. At all.
For assassinations inside Russia, start with Russians at the top of the suspect list.
Why did Dugin take a different car when he was traveling with his daughter? I assume he had a security detail. That looks like a thing. Am I wrong?
Quote from: drogulus on August 22, 2022, 08:54:29 AM
For assassinations inside Russia, start with Russians at the top of the suspect list.
Until now, all assasinations inside Russia have targeted Putin's opponents --- or at least I am not aware of any other type.
QuoteWhy did Dugin take a different car when he was traveling with his daughter? I assume he had a security detail. That looks like a thing. Am I wrong?
I haven't followed the details but most probably you are not wrong.
Quote from: drogulus on August 22, 2022, 08:54:29 AM
For assassinations inside Russia, start with Russians at the top of the suspect list.
Why did Dugin take a different car when he was traveling with his daughter? I assume he had a security detail. That looks like a thing. Am I wrong?
I don't think you're wrong.
Targeting Dugin's daughter makes no sense, whereas targeting Dugin makes a whole lot of sense.
This was a busted op.
Quote from: LKB on August 22, 2022, 09:22:07 AM
I don't think you're wrong.
Targeting Dugin's daughter makes no sense, whereas targeting Dugin makes a whole lot of sense.
This was a busted op.
It makes sense if you are looking at possible coercion instead of some sort of revenge theory. "Since you talked me into this, I will kill your daughter". Nah, the guy's supposed to be some sort of mastermind, maybe he was being tardy in coming up with a brilliant plan for getting Vlad's ass out of this? You need motive no matter who you want to pin it on. Even the Ukes don't have much motive, beyond random terrorism, and executing a plan inside Russia is too complicated to waste on random terrorism.
🤠😎
Quote from: LKB on August 22, 2022, 09:22:07 AM
I don't think you're wrong.
Targeting Dugin's daughter makes no sense, whereas targeting Dugin makes a whole lot of sense.
This was a busted op.
Someone took action to put Dugin in a different car. Why the change in plans? And why was the daughter not protected by putting her in a different car?
Coincidences are in short supply in Russia. The daughter may have been expendable and her death served a greater good, an excuse to launch the Independence Day attack that Russia is planning according to Uke sources. The Ukes have banned public celebrations for the 24th, so they are serious.
Quote from: drogulus on August 22, 2022, 09:46:30 AM
Someone took action to put Dugin in a different car. Why the change in plans? And why was the daughter not protected by putting her in a different car?
Coincidences are in short supply in Russia. The daughter may have been expendable and her death served a greater good, an excuse to launch the Independence Day attack that Russia is planning according to Uke sources. The Ukes have banned public celebrations for the 24th, so they are serious.
Otoh, what kind of father would willingly sacrifice his daughter for the perceived greater good of his country? Is Dugin really that savagely fanatic?
Quote from: Florestan on August 22, 2022, 09:50:11 AM
Otoh, what kind of father would willingly sacrifice his daughter for the perceived greater good of his country? Is Dugin really that savagely fanatic?
I have no idea what Dugin was told. There's no reason to assume he knew anything.
Quote from: drogulus on August 22, 2022, 10:02:59 AM
I have no idea what Dugin was told. There's no reason to assume he knew anything.
Indeed. Most probably both he and his daughter were the unwitting victims of a sinister plot.
I reject everything Dugin stands for and I consider him Putin's Alfred Rosenberg but I would never wish or relish such a devastating loss on anyone.
(https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/08/natalia-shaban-vovk-01.jpg)
Russia accuses the pictured woman of Dugina's murder. Apparently, Ms Vovk took refuge in Estonia. That may end up a factoid of some significance.
Quote from: Todd on August 22, 2022, 10:44:20 AM
(https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/08/natalia-shaban-vovk-01.jpg)
Russia accuses the pictured woman of Dugina's murder. Apparently, Ms Vovk took refuge in Estonia. That may end up a factoid of some significance.
Sounds like the beginning of an excuse for an invasion....
8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on August 22, 2022, 10:55:13 AM
Sounds like the beginning of an excuse for an invasion....
8)
I always take my 12 year old daughter with me on terrorist missions. Good child care is expensive.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on August 22, 2022, 10:55:13 AM
Sounds like the beginning of an excuse for an invasion....
8)
Estonia is a NATO member. There will possibly be extremely bellicose sabre-rattling but no invasion.
Heck, Putin's own daughter lives in Western Europe, not in Vladivostok. So do the sons and daughters of Putin's ministers and oligarchs. I'd bet London, New York or Paris is more valuable for all those people than Novosibirsk, Kazan or Kandalaksha. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on August 22, 2022, 09:50:11 AM
Otoh, what kind of father would willingly sacrifice his daughter for the perceived greater good of his country? Is Dugin really that savagely fanatic?
The security for both Dugin and his daughter may not have been under Dugin's control. It may have been the military, the FSB or another organization who had responsibility.
Quote from: LKB on August 22, 2022, 11:32:32 AM
The security for both Dugin and his daughter may not have been under Dugin's control. It may have been the military, the FSB or another organization who had responsibility.
Yes, indeed.
Against expectations, global food prices have tumbled (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/08/22/against-expectations-global-food-prices-have-tumbled?utm_content=article-link-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=8/22/2022&utm_id=1296419)
Potential good news for people dependent on imported agricultural products. Potential good news for Russia, not only because it will export more than expected but also because it will not be a global villain causing starvation. Potential bad news for the US as the dollar remains strong and will likely rise further with more rate hikes, meaning Uncle Sam can be portrayed as hurting the global poor.
I suspect that we will never know who is responsible, given that the purpose of the "investigation" in Russia is to use the event in the service of propaganda, and when the dust settles there will probably be multiple parties claiming credit. I can imagine (without evidence) that it could be a group within Russia that is opposed to Putin's corruption and adventurism.
The thought also occurred to me that assassination by bomb have a history in Russia. That's how Tzar Alexander II bought it. They built the Church of the Savior on Spilled Blood to mark the location.
Quote from: drogulus on August 22, 2022, 11:05:21 AM
I always take my 12 year old daughter with me on terrorist missions. Good child care is expensive.
Good point.
The important question is not so much who was actually responsible, but who will be blamed.
Quote from: Madiel on August 23, 2022, 03:54:54 AM
The important question is not so much who was actually responsible, but who will be blamed.
The important question is who will be blamed by whom. We already know who the Russian propaganda system blames.
The FSB blamed Chechen rebels for the 1999 apartment bombings, although most people outside Russia are convinced by the evidence that the bombings were carried out by the FSB itself.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 23, 2022, 05:55:08 AM
The important question is who will be blamed by whom. We already know who the Russian propaganda system blames.
The FSB blamed Chechen rebels for the 1999 apartment bombings, although most people outside Russia are convinced by the evidence that the bombings were carried out by the FSB itself.
As an aside, I hope that you, SH, are warm and dry? If I'm recalling correctly, you live in eastern Texas? Have been hearing about horrible flooding there. :(
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on August 23, 2022, 07:37:10 AM
As an aside, I hope that you, SH, are warm and dry? If I'm recalling correctly, you live in eastern Texas? Have been hearing about horrible flooding there. :(
PD
I think the severity of the rains has been exaggerated (easy for me to say, since I wasn't affected). There was flash flooding in some areas of Dallas downtown. Nothing like Harvey, or the Tax Day Storm. I'm in Houston, northern suburbs, and we've had some rain showers that have started to alleviate the drought here. No question of not being warm here.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 23, 2022, 08:57:38 AM
I think the severity of the rains has been exaggerated (easy for me to say, since I wasn't affected). There was flash flooding in some areas of Dallas downtown. Nothing like Harvey, or the Tax Day Storm. I'm in Houston, northern suburbs, and we've had some rain showers that have started to alleviate the drought here. No question of not being warm here.
Oh, I was thinking that the flooding was further south and east. In any event, glad that you're o.k. Finally getting a bit of rain here, but certainly not enough. As least it was gentle-to-moderate rainfall.
I realized after typing it that I should have said "cool and dry". lol
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on August 23, 2022, 09:20:31 AM
Oh, I was thinking that the flooding was further south and east. In any event, glad that you're o.k. Finally getting a bit of rain here, but certainly not enough. As least it was gentle-to-moderate rainfall.
I realized after typing it that I should have said "cool and dry". lol
PD
We should inquire of Brian, Dallas is his neck of the woods. My impression is it was a localized event, involving urban areas with limited drainage.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 23, 2022, 10:37:20 AM
We should inquire of Brian, Dallas is his neck of the woods. My impression is it was a localized event, involving urban areas with limited drainage.
I talked to him last night while it was still raining here, he said it was a near thing but he was good. We had as much as 8-10" here but at my house we had exactly 1.4", I reckon I just don't live right. ::)
🤠😎
Why the Russian economy keeps beating expectations (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/08/23/why-the-russian-economy-keeps-beating-expectations?utm_content=article-image-2&etear=nl_today_2&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=8/23/2022&utm_id=1298468)
Quote from: The EconomistThree factors explain why Russia keeps beating the forecasts. The first is policy. Vladimir Putin has little understanding of economics, but he is happy to delegate economic management to people who do...
The second relates to recent economic history. Sergei Shoigu, Russia's defence minister, may have been on to something in February when, according to the Washington Post, he told the British government that Russians "can suffer like no one else". This is the fifth economic crisis the country has faced in 25 years, after 1998, 2008, 2014 and 2020. Anyone older than 40 has memories of the extraordinary economic tumult brought about by the fall of the Soviet Union. People have learned to adapt, rather than panic (or revolt).
Parts of Russia's economy have long been fairly detached from the West. That comes at the cost of lower growth, but it has made the recent increase in isolation less painful. In 2019 the stock of foreign direct investment in the country was worth about 30% of gdp, compared with the global average of 49%. Before the invasion only about 0.3% of Russians with a job worked for an American firm, compared with more than 2% across the rich world. The country requires relatively few foreign supplies of raw materials. Thus the extra isolation has not had much of an impact on the figures to date.
The third factor relates to hydrocarbons. Sanctions have had a limited impact on Russian oil output, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency. Since the invasion Russia has sold in the region of $85bn-worth of fossil fuels to the EU...
But the next round of sanctions, well, those will cripple Russia. There is no reason at all to pursue a political settlement.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on August 23, 2022, 01:12:49 PM
I talked to him last night while it was still raining here, he said it was a near thing but he was good. We had as much as 8-10" here but at my house we had exactly 1.4", I reckon I just don't live right. ::)
🤠😎
Yes, 8" isn't nothing, but the April 2016 storm dropped 24" in parts of Houston over 24 hours. A year later Harvey dropped 36". That led to people in some newly built subdivisions to discover that they were within the perimeter of a reservoir. :(
A training center allows Uke pilots to fly the A-10 Warthog in DCS!!
Be still my lack of heart! This is a thing, valued humanoids.
https://www.youtube.com/v/bL7Nl8LEbbw&t
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on August 23, 2022, 01:12:49 PM
I talked to him last night while it was still raining here, he said it was a near thing but he was good. We had as much as 8-10" here but at my house we had exactly 1.4", I reckon I just don't live right. ::)
🤠😎
Glad that you all are o.k.
Personally, I would be quite grateful that I wasn't at the receiving end of 8-10 inches of rain. Some more rain (gentle) would be a good thing though.
We had some showers pass through yesterday which helped. :)
TD
So, today is Ukraine Independence Day, have there been any new attacks by Russia? I hope not.
PD
In Russia there's a rivalry between the FSB and the GRU. It would be ungood for one agency to assassinate someone belonging to or associated with the other service. Skripal was GRU and the GRU attacked him. Litvinenko was FSB, so killing him was up to the FSB, and they did it.
Dugin is with the GRU, so no matter what the FSB thought of him they wouldn't touch him. On this view only the GRU would attempt to eliminate him. He's in their "sphere of influence".
Here we go. Dugin is not in the government, and his stance on the war effectively implies Putin is a pussy. The case can be made that Putin is in more danger from Russo-fascists than any other faction in or out of the government. If a coup is attempted, it will be from that direction.
Dugin is dangerous. The attack on him might serve as a warning to the ultras.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 22, 2022, 06:49:28 PM
I suspect that we will never know who is responsible, given that the purpose of the "investigation" in Russia is to use the event in the service of propaganda.
This, in spades.
Lukashenko, the Belorussian clowntator, can't stop tatoring. He congratulated Ukraine on Independence Day.
This war is changing Europe and the world:
Switzerland is bracing for power shortages this winter due to its reliance on Russian gas and French nuclear power, AFP reports.
The country relies on hydropower in the summer months but turns to imports at other times. With Russia slashing gas deliveries, Switzerland is particularly vulnerable as it lacks its own gas storage installations. Exacerbating the issue, France has been forced to halt production at half of its reactors, mainly due to corrosion problems.
The Swiss government but has said it is readying the country for power shortages, with the head of the federal electricity commission, Werner Luginbuhl, warning of repeated, hours-long power cuts.
Quote from: Que on August 25, 2022, 10:49:02 PMThis war is changing Europe and the world:
Thankfully, Americans are willing to sell more gas to Europeans.
Also, Europe is not the world. The short-term discomfort of the Swiss doesn't matter a whole heckuva lot.
Sticking with energy, here's a business press headline that will garner some clicks:
UK energy regulator increases price cap by 80%
A typical household gas and electricity bill will rise to £3,549 a year from October (https://www.ft.com/content/2d973e0a-23be-4f35-9406-458ecca91f45)
Russia to host war games with China as West joins in Exercise Pitch Black (https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/08/29/host-war-games-china-amid-ukraine-tensions-west-exercise-pitch-black/3531661777738/)
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine may be outgunned but in the latest sign it is not yet outfoxed, a fleet of decoys resembling advanced U.S. rocket systems has tricked Russian forces into wasting expensive long-range cruise missiles on dummy targets, according to interviews with senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials and photographs of the replicas reviewed by The Washington Post.
Nord Stream 1: Russia switches off gas pipeline citing maintenance (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/31/nord-stream-1-russia-switches-off-gas-pipeline-citing-maintenance)
So much maintenance.
I'm now at war with Russia, via 10 shares of LMT (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT?p=LMT&.tsrc=fin-srch).
My most warlike move is donating to Nova Ukraine (https://novaukraine.org/). They offer humanitarian aid.
Quote from: Todd on August 31, 2022, 08:26:52 AM
Nord Stream 1: Russia switches off gas pipeline citing maintenance (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/31/nord-stream-1-russia-switches-off-gas-pipeline-citing-maintenance)
So much maintenance.
Russia is currently burning of $10 mln worth of gas
per day to prevent overpressuring the system.
Unlike oil, gas cannot be easily sold off to other customers.
For that you need pipelines and other technically complicated infrastructure. That takes years to build.
Russia is burning its own money and the chances it will ever sell again to Europe are diminishing by the day.
Quote from: Que on August 31, 2022, 10:14:53 AM
Russia is burning its own money and the chances it will ever sell again to Europe are diminishing by the day.
Why wouldn't EC just do a deal with Russia? They get to keep bits of Ukraine, you get their gas. The alternative is . . . well, there is no alternative as far as I can see, at least not for a few years.
Quote from: Que on August 31, 2022, 10:14:53 AMRussia is burning its own money and the chances it will ever sell again to Europe are diminishing by the day.
Russia is currently enjoying its largest ever current account surplus. War is expensive, but Russia can easily afford it right now.
I suspect Europe will buy Russian resources in the future, current threats notwithstanding.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 11:49:02 AM
once Europe is weaned off cheap gas, by means of rapid investment in other forms of non-Russian energy, I don't foresee a particular need for Europe ever to buy Russian energy sources again.
How many years for that? And in the meantime?
Quote from: Mandryka on August 31, 2022, 10:26:57 AM
Why wouldn't EC just do a deal with Russia? They get to keep bits of Ukraine, you get their gas.
For only one thing: "bits of Ukraine" does not belong to the EC to bargain with.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 11:49:02 AMWell, when you're not allowed to buy anything from overseas because all your foreign currency accounts are frozen and no-one will do business with you that they don't absolutely have to, a current account surplus is pretty well inevitable.
The significant drop in imports does boost the current account surplus, to be sure, but other countries are doing business with Russia, though not at levels seen in January of this year. Most of the world does not support The West.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 11:49:02 AMThat's a fairly reductionist view of 'afford'. if they are piling up trillion-dollar surpluses because they aren't allowed to spend their cash anywhere, that means they have the cash wherewithal to wage war, but may well run out of the material resources needed to do so practically. If they are bleeding through Vietnam War-like casualty lists in the space of 6 months, that too is a constraint on 'affordability' which your comment seems to be missing.
Russia has a greater degree of autarky than many countries, especially European countries. Perhaps one day soon Russia really will run out of the most important resource of the day. When it comes to cutting off hydrocarbons to Europe, that is quick, easy, and cheap.
When it comes to casualties, Russia has a long history of piling up corpses for wars, noble or dubious. Maybe this time will be different.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 11:49:02 AMonce Europe is weaned off cheap gas, by means of rapid investment in other forms of non-Russian energy, I don't foresee a particular need for Europe ever to buy Russian energy sources again.
This is wishful thinking.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 12:17:04 PMThe only major economic power being ambivalent about Russia right now is China, and they have far more to lose by pissing off the West than they do smarming up to Russia.
Incorrect. India has upped some key purchases, primarily of oil of course, and it continues to buy military equipment and other goods. It is also actively exploring ways to expand non-dollar denominated trade. India is now the fifth largest economy in the world, having surpassed its former colonial master in size. One of the tangible outcomes of this war is an acceleration of the shift in global power from west to east.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 12:17:04 PMAutarky is a sign of weakness, not strength.
Meh. It's an unachievable ideal. Grubby Mercantilism, exemplified by government programs expending tens of billions of dollars to support key strategic industries (eg, semiconductors), is the practical alternative. And "reshoring" is an increasingly buzzy word.
Whether autarky is considered a weakness or strength relies upon how much faith one places in economics as an art. (It is not a science.)
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 12:17:04 PMThis is the one thing I disagree with you on. I really think the whole Ukrainian business has given a fillip to the idea of doing away with a reliance on fossil fuels. We had Dame Greta haranguing people about it before; now people see the strategic necessity of it.
I agree that it would be more plausible if Germany (for example) would renounce its early shutdown of nuclear power. So yes: it's undoubtedly messy. But I think a direction of movement has been established.
People have recognized the strategic importance of fossil fuels since before the Great War. Despite very positive press coverage praising the new initiatives being accelerated in Europe, particularly regarding an increased emphasis on renewables, etc, nothing can materially change the reality, outlined by the IPCC, that it will still take decades and tens of trillions of dollars to move away from fossil fuels to reach so-called "sustainability".
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 12:45:21 PMIt will take about a year to replace Russia as a source of fossil fuels.
That is wishful thinking.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 12:57:32 PM
Yeah, don't cut-and paste the same phrase devoid of context twice, once the original has been rebutted. (By all means disagree with the rebuttal, but don't make out the rebuttal wasn't previously posted)
The World Economic Forum states that EU energy imports from Russia in 2021 were $108 billion. This is a reduction from $173 billion in 2012. There has already been a very large reduction in the last decade. The idea that energy imports can be reduced to a level that equates to energy independence from Russia within twelve months requires a belief in magic.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on August 31, 2022, 12:03:44 PM
For only one thing: "bits of Ukraine" does not belong to the EC to bargain with.
This has not exactly stopped European powers in the past, unfortunately.
But I do think we are a long way away from any such notion in the present.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on August 31, 2022, 11:59:58 AM
About 1
Can you explain your reasoning? How did you get to that idea?
There are two issues. One is whether Europe can get enough non Russian gas to meet all its demand. The other is the cost of that gas. Even if supply is assured, if the cost is high, it's a serious problem, arguably the more serious problem. The EU will negotiate with Russia and buy affordable gas from them, I expect.
Quote from: Mandryka on August 31, 2022, 01:47:30 PM
There are two issues. One is whether Europe can get enough non Russian gas to meet all its demand. The other is the cost of that gas. Even if supply is assured, if the cost is high, it's a serious problem, arguably the more serious problem. The EU will negotiate with Russia and buy affordable gas from them, I expect.
From the Council of the EU on July 26, 2022:
Member states commit to reducing gas demand by 15% next winter (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/07/26/member-states-commit-to-reducing-gas-demand-by-15-next-winter/)
Quote from: Council of the EUMember states agreed to reduce their gas demand by 15% compared to their average consumption in the past five years, between 1 August 2022 and 31 March 2023, with measures of their own choice.
Reductions are voluntary. Exceptions may be granted.
In May, the EU mentioned 2027 as the preferred deadline to achieve energy independence from Russia, but the budgetary commitment is about €300 billion, which is nowhere near enough to achieve that goal. Per the World Economic Forum, Germany is targeting as early as mid-2024 to become independent of Russian energy, though that is an aspirational target. A recent study out of the UK estimates that Europe may be able to eliminate all reliance on Russian energy by 2030. No one in the real world has ever mentioned a one year timeline for anything.
Of course, a recession is looming, which will blow up those targets.
Canada is to use wind farms to generate hydrogen and ship it across the Atlantic to Germany.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-23/germany-taps-boundless-fuel-potential-in-canada-hydrogen-deal
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 31, 2022, 05:36:28 PMCanada is to use wind farms to generate hydrogen and ship it across the Atlantic to Germany.
Starting in 2025, if everything goes to plan. Which never happens. More likely, material deliveries will occur after Indian GDP has surpassed German GDP.
Quote from: Todd on August 31, 2022, 05:41:30 PM
Starting in 2025, if everything goes to plan. Which never happens. More likely, material deliveries will occur after Indian GDP has surpassed German GDP.
Sometimes things do go according to plan. The thing that always deflates renewable energy projects is low energy cost of fossil fuels. The trend may move in the other direction.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on August 31, 2022, 05:46:35 PMSometimes things do go according to plan.
But usually they don't.
Is the Canada-Germany 'hydrogen deal' overly ambitious? The Canada-Germany Hydrogen Alliance is part of a wider deal that includes batteries and raw materials. Many details remain unclear, but the 2025 target for first deliveries is ambitious, says Paul Martin, the founder of the Hydrogen Science Coalition. (https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/08/26/is-the-canada-germany-hydrogen-deal-overly-ambitious/)
Hey, ambition is good.
The chairman of Lukoil (who opposed the Ukraine war) died after falling out of a window.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584
I wish people who oppose Putin weren't so clumsy.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on September 01, 2022, 01:02:59 AM
The chairman of Lukoil (who opposed the Ukraine war) died after falling out of a window.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584
I wish people who oppose Putin weren't so clumsy.
Interesting how hospital windows are able to be opened?
Years ago I remember learning the term "defenestration" (at that time in connection with Prague).
PD
Is Russia worried that Moldova, perhaps with the help of Ukraine, will move on Transnistria if the Ukranian offensive in the south would be successful?
The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned Moldova that any actions seen as endangering the security of Russian troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria would be considered an attack on Russia.
Russia has stationed peacekeeping troops in Transnistria since the early 1990s, when an armed conflict saw pro-Russian separatists wrest most of the region from Moldovan control. Russian forces also guard a large ammunition dump in the region.Russia has said its army is there to maintain peace and stability, but Moldova wants Moscow to withdraw its forces. In April, tensions in Moldova soared after a series of sporadic attacks were reported in Transnistria.
In an address at Russia's top foreign affairs school, Lavrov said:
"Everyone should understand that any action that would threaten the security of our troops (in Transnistria) would be considered under international law as an attack on Russia."
Of course, Lavrov is talking out of his ass... "Under international law" Transnistria is not part of Russia, but of Moldova.
When it comes to Russian politicians, talking out of one's a$$ is essentially the national pastime. They are the " masters " in that department.
Quote from: LKB on September 01, 2022, 07:45:57 PM
When it comes to Russian politicians, talking out of one's a$$ is essentially the national pastime. They are the " masters " in that department.
https://internationalaffairs.co/current-affairs/the-undignified-fall-of-russias-once-dignified-diplomatic-corps/
It was been quiet for a month or so but I checked the NATO ratification process: Thanks Czech Republic! $:)
🇨🇿
Six countries left...
Gazprom allegedly now stopping for gas to Germany indefinitely, not just until Saturday, officially due to 'some very basic technical problems' with Nord Stream 1.
This was about 5 minutes after the G7 agreeing to set up a limit for Russian oil prices.
EDIT: apparently, in August, the Russian share of Europe's imported gas had already shrunk to just 10%
https://twitter.com/A_Schroeder1985/status/1565648295787102208
Chomsky's view of what caused the war in case anyone is interested:
https://youtu.be/b8Ji_IzKFHo
Recent interviews with him are more of a documentation of how he has gone senile and even more extreme, is completely out of touch with the events - including with the mood in the Ukrainian population, and regarding the amount of Russian atrocities. Do you consider him as a reliable observer?
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 03, 2022, 03:57:46 AMRecent interviews with him are more of a documentation of how he has gone senile
I believe this is called an ad hominem attack.
Out of curiosity, how do you think that you, specifically, are in touch with events in Ukraine, specifically the mood of the Ukrainian population? Twitter?
Quote from: milk on September 03, 2022, 03:39:51 AM
Chomsky's view of what caused the war in case anyone is interested:
https://youtu.be/b8Ji_IzKFHo
My problem with Chomsky is not what he says, but how he says it. It is his voice that is very difficult to tolerate. He has got the voice of a 200 years old man and looking him speak makes me fear any word will strain too much energy out of his body and he will collapse on the floor dead. ???
Quote from: 71 dB on September 03, 2022, 05:54:02 AM
My problem with Chomsky is not what he says, but how he says it. It is his voice that is very difficult to tolerate. He has got the voice of a 200 years old man and looking him speak makes me fear any word will strain too much energy out of his body and he will collapse on the floor dead. ???
I've always disliked his arrogant manner of speaking. How many times does he use phrases like, "everybody knows..." But he is worth listening to and taking seriously.
Quote from: milk on September 03, 2022, 06:37:43 AM
I've always disliked his arrogant manner of speaking. How many times does he use phrases like, "everybody knows..." But he is worth listening to and taking seriously.
His "everybody knows..." means "everybody SHOULD know..." and is to be interpreted as frustration over the fact that most people are completely ignorant about most things.
So I watched it. This is one of the more moderate ones.
As said, no expressed sympathy with Ukraine. He downplays the direct Russian invasions in 2014, calls them a non-notable conflict, and doesn't even acknowledge the invasion of - and obtained control with - Donbass, as a frozen, created conflict, back then.
He also doesn't acknowledge that there can be a conflict between the Kremlin's estimates of its own influential power and realities, and sees this as an example of the failure of Western analysis capabilities; yet, this is one of the key points made by many, such a Galeotti for example, since the authoritarian system with the same leader for decades has a strong tendency to produce false reports about its own successes - to facilitate corruption,and avoid local punishment. Everything points to the Kremlin really thinking that Ukraine could be taken in a week.
It is refreshing though that, at the end, he calls the invasion an aggression and Russia a dictatorship. However, it's notable that the interview is abruptly cut after that, maybe it was longer.
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 03, 2022, 07:27:12 AMAs said, no expressed sympathy with Ukraine.
So?
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 03, 2022, 07:27:12 AMIt is refreshing though that, at the end, he calls the invasion an aggression and Russia a dictatorship.
He has since the invasion started.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 03, 2022, 06:52:19 AM
His "everybody knows..." means "everybody SHOULD know..." and is to be interpreted as frustration over the fact that most people are completely ignorant about most things.
At 25:00 here, from July 2022,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ6T4uZGRTw
he says that Sweden and Finland are eager to join NATO, because the powers in those countries want to sell more weapons; this will allegedly mean that when becoming USA's vassals via NATO, those countries will 'dismantle their social democracies'. Also, he is being very selective as regards quotations and signals from Western politicians. He also ignores a discussion of a stronger EU in the future; for example, a recent governmental leaked report here in DK says that a Trump presidency no.2, or simply a likely stronger future representation of the thinking he represents, will pose a security threat, and therefore urges for more EU collaboration, possibly beyond NATO.
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 03, 2022, 08:25:08 AMHe also ignores a discussion of a stronger EU in the future; for example, a recent governmental leaked report here in DK says that a Trump presidency no.2, or simply a likely stronger future representation of the thinking he represents, will pose a security threat, and therefore urges for more EU collaboration, possibly beyond NATO.
The EU does not have an effective security organization and explicitly relies on NATO for military missions. Changing that will require European powers to come up with a practical alternative for centralized command, something Europeans have failed to do for all of European history.
Russia's Gazprom says it won't reopen Nord Stream gas pipeline to Europe as planned (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/02/russias-gazprom-says-it-wont-reopen-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-europe-planned/)
The move comes as Europe is scrambling to confront acute energy disruptions that threaten to leave the continent short of the fuel it needs when temperatures drop. The shutdown extension is expected to send gas prices up sharply when markets open on Monday. If the pipeline stays offline permanently — and Europe has a particularly cold winter — the economic consequences for Europe and the world would be considerable.
This is good, very good. It no longer matters who decides if Russian gas will be bought or sold. There's nothing to decide. If plans for the energy future don't include Russia for one reason, it's the same as for another reason. Pipelines can be shut down, a reason, or Europe can refuse to buy, or Russia can refuse to sell, or the pipes can be sabotaged. For whatever reason, Russia can't be part of the plan.
It's just like my opinion, man, but I judge that Russia being not in the plan should have been the plan all along.
Quote from: Todd on September 03, 2022, 08:39:21 AMChanging that will require European powers to come up with a practical alternative for centralized command, something Europeans have failed to do for all of European history.
Very much the same applies to all countries, worldwide. The European cooperation from 1950 onwards is simply unique in world history, and even closer forms of cooperation are not to be expected.
Quote from: Christo on September 05, 2022, 10:33:14 AM
Very much the same applies to all countries, worldwide. The European cooperation from 1950 onwards is simply unique in world history, and even closer forms of cooperation are not to be expected.
If European countries cannot cooperate more effectively than right now, then Europe as a whole will become less and less important in world affairs in the coming decades. That will be good for everyone else.
Quote from: Christo on September 05, 2022, 10:33:14 AM
Very much the same applies to all countries, worldwide. The European cooperation from 1950 onwards is simply unique in world history, and even closer forms of cooperation are not to be expected.
Good to hear from you Christo.
Hope that all is well with you these days?
PD
Quote from: Todd on September 05, 2022, 10:42:09 AMEurope as a whole will become less and less important in world affairs in the coming decades. That will be good for everyone else.
The insignificance of the US - its fall as a great power - will even surpass theirs, no special reason for European countries to be worried.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 05, 2022, 10:43:33 AM
Good to hear from you Christo.
Hope that all is well with you these days?
PD
Many thanks, well enough. :)
Quote from: Christo on September 05, 2022, 11:06:14 AMThe insignificance of the US - its fall as a great power - will even surpass theirs, no special reason for European countries to be worried.
If one takes account of actual mechanisms of power, this is exceedingly unlikely. Europe is the region that will weaken the most, from an already weak and dependent position.
Now to the current economic war bruising the continent:
EU plans to slam brakes on energy prices this week (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-plans-energy-prices-leyen-michel-russia-war-ukraine-electricity-crisis-nord-stream-gas/)
Price caps will not work, of course. One needn't look beyond the 30%+ jump in gas prices in the European markets today. If supplies are not properly restored, rationing is on its way: French PM says companies may face energy 'rationing' this winter (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220829-french-pm-says-companies-may-face-energy-rationing-this-winter)
And the Euro fell below parity today. Of course, King Dollar has been on a tear against pretty much all other currencies as of late for multiple reasons. If it gets too high, something like the Plaza Accord might be needed, but how that would work if the current mix of international woes persist is unknown right now.
Quote from: Christo on September 05, 2022, 10:33:14 AM
Very much the same applies to all countries, worldwide. The European cooperation from 1950 onwards is simply unique in world history, and even closer forms of cooperation are not to be expected.
As of May 2022, EU has 7 ongoing, albeit modest, military missions abroad, Congo in 2003 being the first one, and fighting Somalia pirates being a recent one ('Operation Atalanta'), plus 11 missions that have a more a 'civilian' content, such as aimed at improving border controls, defense and justice systems etc. outside the EU. A specific EU rapid response force, a brigade of 5,000, is now formally being organized, for various military missions.
Quote from: Todd on September 05, 2022, 10:42:09 AM
If European countries cannot cooperate more effectively than right now, then Europe as a whole will become less and less important in world affairs in the coming decades. That will be good for everyone else.
What's the bad stuff that we'll get less of? Sometimes I want to ask these meta questions but one always needs to whittle these things down to sets of smaller inquiry. I mean, we can probably say that the state of the world has improved a lot over the last five or six decades. If we can avert major environmental breakdown and nuclear apocalypse, we can see ourselves facing a whole different condition. But I wonder who or what is responsible? I know towards whom the finger points if humanity falls off the environmental knife's edge.
Quote from: Todd on September 05, 2022, 10:42:09 AM
If European countries cannot cooperate more effectively than right now, then Europe as a whole will become less and less important in world affairs in the coming decades. That will be good for everyone else.
The United States of America is technically
one country, and it struggles to cooperate effectively with itself.
Quote from: milk on September 05, 2022, 10:02:21 PMWhat's the bad stuff that we'll get less of?
The immediate benefits would come from a weakening of rules and regulations created by the European Parliament and the European Commission, which while merely regional, strive to be global, and do impose burdensome costs on companies domiciled in other parts of the world. Think online privacy, and such. Also, an increasingly weakened Europe may very well result in fewer military interventions undertaken by the great white saviors. France has been most active in this regard this century, with the UK acting more as American lapdog. Decreased cooperation may very well see even less cooperation in various international organizations like the UN and its appendages, various international economic organizations, and so on. Realistically, with the internal fissures more or less known, it looks like existing European institutions will hobble along, occasionally bailing out less well-run countries (eg, Italy), generating some meddlesome regulations, ineffectively trying to work through extant institutions, and relying on the US for protection. If the current economic war with Russia is severe enough, or if future crises are severe enough, it is conceivable that European-style nationalism - the very worst kind - becomes more prevalent, multiple countries succumb, and leave the EU and the Euro and leave the experiment in worse shape than when the UK left. That would be great.
Quote from: Todd on September 06, 2022, 03:58:58 AM
The immediate benefits would come from a weakening of rules and regulations created by the European Parliament and the European Commission, which while merely regional, strive to be global, and do impose burdensome costs on companies domiciled in other parts of the world. Think online privacy, and such. Also, an increasingly weakened Europe may very well result in fewer military interventions undertaken by the great white saviors. France has been most active in this regard this century, with the UK acting more as American lapdog. Decreased cooperation may very well see even less cooperation in various international organizations like the UN and its appendages, various international economic organizations, and so on. Realistically, with the internal fissures more or less known, it looks like existing European institutions will hobble along, occasionally bailing out less well-run countries (eg, Italy), generating some meddlesome regulations, ineffectively trying to work through extant institutions, and relying on the US for protection. If the current economic war with Russia is severe enough, or if future crises are severe enough, it is conceivable that European-style nationalism - the very worst kind - becomes more prevalent, multiple countries succumb, and leave the EU and the Euro and leave the experiment in worse shape than when the UK left. That would be great.
I guess you don't see the EU as a positive for having ended nationalisms and eons of bloodshed in Europe? What if it only did that and none of the other stuff you didn't like? What if it could be reformed?
You don't give Europe any credit for leadership in effecting great improvements in quality of life the world has seen over the past five decades? That's what I was getting at before, not that I have evidence it's down to Europe but I see Europeans as so much more global than people where I live in Japan. I looked at a report recently on measures of global giving and generosity and Japanese are almost at the bottom of every measure.
Quote from: milk on September 06, 2022, 03:49:52 PM
I guess you don't see the EU as a positive for having ended nationalisms and eons of bloodshed in Europe? What if it only did that and none of the other stuff you didn't like? What if it could be reformed?
You don't give Europe any credit for leadership in effecting great improvements in quality of life the world has seen over the past five decades? That's what I was getting at before, not that I have evidence it's down to Europe but I see Europeans as so much more global than people where I live in Japan. I looked at a report recently on measures of global giving and generosity and Japanese are almost at the bottom of every measure.
Todd has no interest in an improvement to the world if it came from elsewhere. To him it smacks too much of being told what to do.
This is the basic problem with American exceptionalism.
We'll see, but currently, the Russians are trying to defend themselves against a Ukrainian offensive, not only at Kherson but now surprisingly also in the North at Kharkiv. Western experts have said all the time, that the advancing is going to take time, due to mines, minimizing Ukrainian losses, and the better strategy of exhausting logistics firstly. About a dozen villages/small towns have been reconquered, actually quicker than expected, in a few days.
That is, the Russians are currently not advancing, they're receding and trying to maybe gather for a later counter offensive - but with many logistical problems. They don't have the capacity for further advances right now.
Declaring war officially, a suggested, possible way out (?), is a very questionable option; but it won't solve those problems in the immediate perspective, unless perhaps we're talking further absurdities like nukes, strategic bombers, or the like - which would add countless new problems.
Touching scenes from the liberated Ukrainian areas,
during the so far successful and unexpectedly fast advances
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1567985926218842115
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1567954113648037888
A brilliant move of the Ukrainians to lure more Russian troops to the southern front, where the Ukrainians were in a more advantageous position anyway, and then open a 2nd front in the northwest - catching the Russians off guard
Both offensives seem to progress and gaining momentum.
Local politicians in Saint Petersburg, the second- largest city in Russia, are calling for Putin to be removed from power and charged with treason.
https://news.yahoo.com/st-petersburg-local-councilors-call-143200337.html
While this effort will go nowhere in the rubber-stamp Duma, the fact that it's been posted online non-anonymously could indicate that the tide is beginning to turn.
Probably not the beginning of the end for Vlad the Mad, but it might provide motivation for some momentum.
A clip illustrating the state of at least parts of the Russian occupation army - miserable militia from the 'Lugansk Republic' in public mutiny-like behaviour
https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1567983573172363264
Quote from: milk on September 06, 2022, 03:49:52 PM
I guess you don't see the EU as a positive for having ended nationalisms and eons of bloodshed in Europe? What if it only did that and none of the other stuff you didn't like? What if it could be reformed?
You don't give Europe any credit for leadership in effecting great improvements in quality of life the world has seen over the past five decades? That's what I was getting at before, not that I have evidence it's down to Europe but I see Europeans as so much more global than people where I live in Japan. I looked at a report recently on measures of global giving and generosity and Japanese are almost at the bottom of every measure.
I have seen no evidence that the EU ended European nationalism. At best, it keeps it suppressed, though national governments and populations do the heavy lifting. Sometimes nationalism reemerges, though not in the most odious manner that only Europeans are capable of achieving. Or at least not yet. The (temporary) end of bloodshed has something to do with the now permanent stationing of a superpower's military in multiple countries on the continent.
European governments along with the EU have contributed to the improvement in the quality of life around the world, but again it is Eurocentrism which overstates the contribution of the west. The greatest improvement in the quality of life in human history occurred in China, as 800 million people were lifted out of extreme poverty in the last forty years. Much is still to be done, but that is a major accomplishment, and it is not attributable to Europe (or the US). It is worth noting that wealthy, enlightened Europe has done less for the global AIDS crisis than George W Bush and less to end malaria around the world than Bill Gates. Indeed, if one counts not only governmental giving but also private giving, Europeans end up looking rather miserly. Maybe not as bad as Japan, but not especially generous, either. It is not unusual for some developing countries to provide more aid, as a percentage of GDP, than Europeans.
Europeans should try mightily to reform the EU. It could make for some light-hearted entertainment.
The Ukes don't have a big enough force to take full advantage of the Russian collapse. The best move is what they are doing, which is to identify the weakest points and launch local attacks while continuing to eliminate the support structure behind the Russian lines. The Ukes are fighting like a NATO army would if it had the same limitations. The Russians are stuck in a WWII time warp, but they can't field the mass army that they would need to prevail. Putin can announce the formation of a bigger army, but an army can't be announced into existence. Once all the criminals and homeless have been impressed, they're left with older men. None of these are trained, and they would need to be fed and equipped before they are sent to die, the only role for which they are suited.
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 08, 2022, 11:02:38 PM
Touching scenes from the liberated Ukrainian areas,
during the so far successful and unexpectedly fast advances
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1567985926218842115
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1567954113648037888
Thank you for those links! Quite interesting and touching in the one thanking the troops to see short clips as to what is going on in at least a couple of the areas. Gives one hope. :)
PD
This story about a pregnant Ukrainian medic is hitting me hard:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62819425
PD
https://www.youtube.com/v/B_BN_eCScwM
Interesting video!
"Russian-installed official in the occupied part of Kharkiv region admitted Moscow's troops were on the back foot. "The very fact of a breach of our defences is already a substantial victory for the Ukrainian armed forces," Vitaly Ganchev told state television, adding that Ukraine's advance had been "very sharp and rapid"."
Russians simply fleeing; Kupiansk was liberated with only little fighting.
But: the Kupiansk offensive, or the Kherson one, won't end the war; however, liberating Melitopol and Mariupol could do it. Cf. Thomas C. Theiner
( https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1567974776903446529 ). That's a bigger enterprise and why many commentators think of the war extending well into 2023 or 2024.
The Kremlin is now likely to order some sort of escalation, but the question is, whether the army is able to deliver anything of importance, or they'll try something else.
Ukraine appears to have recaptured the key cities of Izyum and Kupiansk.
The cities lie south-east of Kharkiv city in the Kharkiv region, where Ukrainian forces have launched a major counteroffensive in recent days. Analysts said Kupiansk in particular is an important logistical hub for Russian forces in the east of Ukraine.
A number of pro-Russian Telegram channels have said Ukrainian forces now control half of Kupiansk, BBC Russia reports, while Ukrainian sources have told the outlet that Kupiansk has been "completely liberated".
BBC Russia also reports that pro-Russian channels have said Russian troops have left Izyum. Other channels reportedly said Ukrainian troops were already in the city's centre.
Late on Thursday, US-based thinktank The Institute for the Study of War said it expected Kupiansk to fall within 72 hours, and that its recapture would "severely degrade" Russia's ground lines of communication to Izyum.
An intelligence update published by the UK ministry of defence at 6am this morning said that Russian forces around Izyum were "increasingly isolated" and that Ukrainian units were "threatening" Kupiansk.
Claims that the cities have been recaptured have also been shared online by multiple analysts and journalists covering the war in Ukraine.
- The Guardian has not been able to independently verify the claims. -
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 09, 2022, 11:45:53 PMhowever, liberating Melitopol and Mariupol could do it.
How could this end the war, and what would that look like?
The war has been ongoing since 2014.
Quote from: Que on September 10, 2022, 04:16:25 AM
Ukraine appears to have recaptured the key cities of Izyum and Kupiansk.
The cities lie south-east of Kharkiv city in the Kharkiv region, where Ukrainian forces have launched a major counteroffensive in recent days. Analysts said Kupiansk in particular is an important logistical hub for Russian forces in the east of Ukraine.
(...)
This is already outdated news; it's a memorable day for the Ukrainians, who are advancing in many places, also further to the south. More towns have been liberated, including bigger ones. The Russian MD now officially talks of a 'regrouping'. The leader of the Donetsk 'People's Republic' published a video, where he looks like fleeing in a car - not a smart move (in this link, they had fun changing his name a bit) https://twitter.com/dimaFromUkraine/status/1568616989337296897
Given that Russia offically denied any involvement or support for the pro-Russian militias, one can safely say that between 2014 and 2022 there was a localized civil war on the Ukrainian territory of Donbas.
There was no all-out Russo-Ukrainian war until the February 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops.
There is no doubt whatsoever that in the current war Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is defending herself. Any other interpretation goes against international law of war no matter how far one might stretch them.
Wars can foster fantasies.
Quote from: Todd on September 10, 2022, 07:33:10 AM
Wars can foster fantasies.
And more often fantasies foster war.
Quote from: Que on September 10, 2022, 08:12:36 AM
And more often fantasies foster war.
I should like to see some type of empirical evidence supporting that assertion. Few people can start wars. Lots of folks can create fantastical ideas about wars. See the internet.
Quote from: Todd on September 10, 2022, 08:15:39 AM
I should like to see some type of empirical evidence supporting that assertion. Few people can start wars. Lots of folks can create fantastical ideas about wars. See the internet.
I should have said: more significantly.
Quote from: Que on September 10, 2022, 08:20:24 AM
I should have said: more significantly.
That leads to a rather more significant question: Do leaders truly rely on fantasies when starting wars, or do they utilize fluffy rationalizations to mask real motives? Putin, Bush, Kagame, they all do it, as do others.
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 10, 2022, 07:27:31 AM
This is already outdated news; it's a memorable day for the Ukrainians, who are advancing in many places, also further to the south. More towns have been liberated, including bigger ones. The Russian MD now officially talks of a 'regrouping'. The leader of the Donetsk 'People's Republic' published a video, where he looks like fleeing in a car - not a smart move (in this link, they had fun changing his name a bit) https://twitter.com/dimaFromUkraine/status/1568616989337296897
It seems that the town of
Lyman is next....
Is this going to be a total collapse of the Russian defenses in the northwest?
Quote from: Que on September 10, 2022, 08:49:13 AM
It seems that the town of Lyman is next....
Is this going to be total a collapse of the Russian defenses in the northwest?
If l were Putin ( God forbid, though I'd happily accept custody of his wallet for safekeeping ), I'd be considering options for escalation.
As western worries have been focused on the Russians' tactical nukes, l wouldn't put it past Putin to attempt a stealthy biological or chemical action.
During the 1990's, evidence surfaced of the Russians having redesigned a number of MIRVs to carry biological rather than nuclear payloads. During the same period, other evidence suggested Russian attempts to create a strain of smallpox against which the vaccine available in the west would be largely ineffective.
I very much doubt any Russian leader would have done away with such capabilities, and given the greater deniability as opposed to any nuclear strike, it seems to me that Putin could be thinking about it.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcVWZFuXgAEyppW?format=jpg&name=medium)
Quote from: Que on September 10, 2022, 11:11:29 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcVWZFuXgAEyppW?format=jpg&name=medium)
Hmm. Time will show.
Quote from: Todd on September 09, 2022, 07:10:11 AM
I have seen no evidence that the EU ended European nationalism. At best, it keeps it suppressed, though national governments and populations do the heavy lifting. Sometimes nationalism reemerges, though not in the most odious manner that only Europeans are capable of achieving. Or at least not yet. The (temporary) end of bloodshed has something to do with the now permanent stationing of a superpower's military in multiple countries on the continent.
European governments along with the EU have contributed to the improvement in the quality of life around the world, but again it is Eurocentrism which overstates the contribution of the west. The greatest improvement in the quality of life in human history occurred in China, as 800 million people were lifted out of extreme poverty in the last forty years. Much is still to be done, but that is a major accomplishment, and it is not attributable to Europe (or the US). It is worth noting that wealthy, enlightened Europe has done less for the global AIDS crisis than George W Bush and less to end malaria around the world than Bill Gates. Indeed, if one counts not only governmental giving but also private giving, Europeans end up looking rather miserly. Maybe not as bad as Japan, but not especially generous, either. It is not unusual for some developing countries to provide more aid, as a percentage of GDP, than Europeans.
Europeans should try mightily to reform the EU. It could make for some light-hearted entertainment.
I would just give more credit to the EU for the significantly non-nationalist manner of government relations within Europe and I think that would hold, and would have held, absent U.S. troops. At the same time, the EU has created problems for itself that are leaving it in question. Have you weighed in on Russia's latest embarrassments? Are these temporary setbacks or evidence of more serious rot with more ominous consequences?
Yes, I didn't mean to suggest that Europe saved the world or give you another opportunity to scold us about Eurocentrism. I got the point. Reports I read suggests Africans, Indonesians and Iranians give the most to their communities and it's true that Chinese have come up in the world. It's wonderful that they have but too bad the government is so insecure about it that so many people must be paid to crow about it and no one will join China except if a gun is held to their heads.
I also know some Sri Lankans that aren't so happy that China owns their port.
Quote from: milk on September 11, 2022, 02:53:40 PMI would just give more credit to the EU for the significantly non-nationalist manner of government relations within Europe and I think that would hold, and would have held, absent U.S. troops.
Asserting that the perceived reduction of nationalism in Europe would have held without a permanent US military presence is contrafactual. There is no way to
know. What is known is that European nationalism absent US presence was gruesome business. Also, as Hungary demonstrates, nationalism has not been squelched entirely, and the success of nationalists in France and Italy demonstrate that it is not entirely vanquished elsewhere.
I suppose there is a way to see if European nationalism can remain marginalized: the US can remove all troops and also stop formal policy coordination at all levels, but especially between the Fed and the ECB. I think that could make for an interesting experiment, and I am all for the US fully withdrawing from Europe, from NATO, and I support complete decoupling of monetary policy and no longer allowing the ECB to tap the Fed, ever, for any reason. Ideally, those steps could start tomorrow.
Quote from: milk on September 11, 2022, 02:53:40 PMHave you weighed in on Russia's latest embarrassments? Are these temporary setbacks or evidence of more serious rot with more ominous consequences?
I do not "weigh in" on anything - that is a worthless phrase. I know the precise value of my opinions. As to Russian troubles, I always keep in mind the old adage which I will repeat here: Russia is never as strong as she seems, Russia is never as weak as she seems. If the current military setbacks represent a permanent shift in relative strategic positions of the combatants, then perhaps Russia will be forced out Ukraine entirely, and perhaps they will even cede Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014 as part of the Russian invasion of that year, something apparently forgotten by other posters. Such setbacks could result in political chaos in Russia and Putin could be forced from power, handed over to the west, and tried and most certainly convicted. Russia could then pay massive reparations and demilitarize, join the fraternity of nations as a junior partner, and liberalize in such a manner that everyone will see Russia as a true partner in peace going forward. Or not.
Another possibility, one of many, is that the setbacks are real, tactically damaging, but not strategically devastating. (The press coverage in standard western outlets is so badly skewed and propagandistic that it cannot be trusted. Other English language sources in India and Singapore should also be read for a less triumphalist take.) Russia has already imparted damage to Ukraine sufficient to cripple it economically into the 2030s. And if the war continues, and more crucially, if the economic war with Europe continues into the winter, then Russian actions could prove more politically destabilizing in several less resilient European countries, and that appears to be one of the objectives Putin and his advisors are pursuing. Knowing about it does not prevent exogenous factors from giving a political boost to nationalists and other, less centrist parties in other European countries.
Quote from: milk on September 11, 2022, 02:53:40 PMYes, I didn't mean to suggest that Europe saved the world or give you another opportunity to scold us about Eurocentrism.
Europe is declining more rapidly than the US in relative terms, yet most Europeans and many Americans succumb to Eurocentrism. The 2030s will be very hard on people who believe in any type of perceived superiority of European "values", etc.
Quote from: milk on September 11, 2022, 02:53:40 PMIt's wonderful that they have but too bad the government is so insecure about it that so many people must be paid to crow about it and no one will join China except if a gun is held to their heads.
The CCP is unpleasant and rules in an unpleasant/oppressive/brutal manner. So what?
Quote from: milk on September 11, 2022, 02:53:40 PMI also know some Sri Lankans that aren't so happy that China owns their port.
Maybe the Sri Lankans can cozy up to their big neighbor and force some type of new arrangement more beneficial to residents of the subcontinent. From an American standpoint, Sri Lanka is small potatoes and worth nothing more than repeating some talking points and maybe saying diplomatically stern things at the UN.
The Ukes, having reached the Russian border, are directing counterbattery fire into Russia south of Sumy in the Kharkiv district.
Another encouraging sign is that Russian soldiers are calling a (heh!) Ukrainian help line to find out how to safely surrender.
As I have said before, the Ukes make it hard for Russians to take heavy equipment with them as they run away. Many tanks and IFVs in pristine condition are now going to add to the strength of the Ukrainians.
Quote from: Todd on September 11, 2022, 03:45:31 PM
Asserting that the perceived reduction of nationalism in Europe would have held without a permanent US military presence is contrafactual. There is no way to know. What is known is that European nationalism absent US presence was gruesome business. Also, as Hungary demonstrates, nationalism has not been squelched entirely, and the success of nationalists in France and Italy demonstrate that it is not entirely vanquished elsewhere.
I suppose there is a way to see if European nationalism can remain marginalized: the US can remove all troops and also stop formal policy coordination at all levels, but especially between the Fed and the ECB. I think that could make for an interesting experiment, and I am all for the US fully withdrawing from Europe, from NATO, and I support complete decoupling of monetary policy and no longer allowing the ECB to tap the Fed, ever, for any reason. Ideally, those steps could start tomorrow.
I do not "weigh in" on anything - that is a worthless phrase. I know the precise value of my opinions. As to Russian troubles, I always keep in mind the old adage which I will repeat here: Russia is never as strong as she seems, Russia is never as weak as she seems. If the current military setbacks represent a permanent shift in relative strategic positions of the combatants, then perhaps Russia will be forced out Ukraine entirely, and perhaps they will even cede Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014 as part of the Russian invasion of that year, something apparently forgotten by other posters. Such setbacks could result in political chaos in Russia and Putin could be forced from power, handed over to the west, and tried and most certainly convicted. Russia could then pay massive reparations and demilitarize, join the fraternity of nations as a junior partner, and liberalize in such a manner that everyone will see Russia as a true partner in peace going forward. Or not.
Another possibility, one of many, is that the setbacks are real, tactically damaging, but not strategically devastating. (The press coverage in standard western outlets is so badly skewed and propagandistic that it cannot be trusted. Other English language sources in India and Singapore should also be read for a less triumphalist take.) Russia has already imparted damage to Ukraine sufficient to cripple it economically into the 2030s. And if the war continues, and more crucially, if the economic war with Europe continues into the winter, then Russian actions could prove more politically destabilizing in several less resilient European countries, and that appears to be one of the objectives Putin and his advisors are pursuing. Knowing about it does not prevent exogenous factors from giving a political boost to nationalists and other, less centrist parties in other European countries.
Europe is declining more rapidly than the US in relative terms, yet most Europeans and many Americans succumb to Eurocentrism. The 2030s will be very hard on people who believe in any type of perceived superiority of European "values", etc.
The CCP is unpleasant and rules in an unpleasant/oppressive/brutal manner. So what?
Maybe the Sri Lankans can cozy up to their big neighbor and force some type of new arrangement more beneficial to residents of the subcontinent. From an American standpoint, Sri Lanka is small potatoes and worth nothing more than repeating some talking points and maybe saying diplomatically stern things at the UN.
Yes, I wonder if it's better in the long term if there there's just some negotiation with Russia. But I think neither the Ukraine's spooner (typo, I meant sponsor), nor Russia, are for it. I suspect a broken Russia is one of those "be careful what you wish for" type things. Putin's fall might be another. It's a crap shoot.
Tangentially, how's negotiating with Republican terrorists in the U.S. working out?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcaanUnXEAM1wu6?format=jpg&name=medium)
Quote from: Que on September 10, 2022, 11:11:29 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcVWZFuXgAEyppW?format=jpg&name=medium)
1) Likely update below. The yellow areas will probably be included. The Russians are pulling out of almost all of the Kharkiv region/oblast. They've confirmed it. There was some fighting in Izyum. But the map is not showing the minor advances in southern Ukraine (at Kherson, at Luhansk, possibly also north of Berdyansk etc).
2) A possible new line of defense for the invaders, in the South.
Quote from: milk on September 11, 2022, 07:09:29 PMI suspect a broken Russia is one of those "be careful what you wish for" type things. Putin's fall might be another.
I do not even know what a broken Russia would look like. Maybe an echo of the 90s - which resulted in Putin's rule.
I don't know of a single democracy that's not been hit by mountains of Russian disinformation, all of which is trying to weaken people's confidence and trust in their existing institutions and leaders.
Opinion Is Putin facing defeat? The 'End of History' author remains confident. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/12/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-defeat-francis-fukuyama-interview/)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 12, 2022, 10:55:00 AM
I don't know of a single democracy that's not been hit by mountains of Russian disinformation, all of which is trying to weaken people's confidence and trust in their existing institutions and leaders.
Opinion Is Putin facing defeat? The 'End of History' author remains confident. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/12/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-defeat-francis-fukuyama-interview/)
Thanks Karl, that made for some interesting reading. 👍
China has been reluctant to provide direct military aid to support Russia's Ukraine invasion, and from time to time it has appeared quite uncomfortable with having a "best friend" that also regularly seems committed to demonstrating its incompetence. Differing Russian and Chinese statements in the run up to this week's summit further underscore that.
What Happens to Russia After It Loses? (https://www.thedailybeast.com/what-happens-to-russia-after-it-loses?source=twitter&via=desktop)
Quote from: 71 dB on September 02, 2022, 06:53:43 AM
It was been quiet for a month or so but I checked the NATO ratification process: Thanks Czech Republic! $:)
🇨🇿
Six countries left...
BREAKING: Hellenic Parliament ratified accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO! 🇬🇷🇫🇮🇸🇪
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 13, 2022, 10:29:07 AM
China has been reluctant to provide direct military aid to support Russia's Ukraine invasion, and from time to time it has appeared quite uncomfortable with having a "best friend" that also regularly seems committed to demonstrating its incompetence. Differing Russian and Chinese statements in the run up to this week's summit further underscore that.
What Happens to Russia After It Loses? (https://www.thedailybeast.com/what-happens-to-russia-after-it-loses?source=twitter&via=desktop)
I wonder if China fears some of that stuff might rub off. How flexible and dynamic is the Chinese military on the go? Do they want to find out? How good are their toys against whatever Taiwan has been buying. Maybe better not to find out. Putin was in a very strong position before. What does that shirtless dude on horseback look like now? He really threw away all his advantage and he had a lot previously for negotiating. That's the lesson I hope the Chinese would take. That's a good reason to hope Russia gets really routed, on top of all the others.
Quote from: milk on September 15, 2022, 03:28:33 AMThat's a good reason to hope Russia gets really routed, on top of all the others.
What does "really routed" mean?
Quote from: Todd on September 15, 2022, 04:37:59 AM
What does "really routed" mean?
I don't know what the metrics are for winning and losing. As far as what's best, my mind is open to arguments. My idea might be flawed. I'd like it if the Chinese leadership (as a consequence) kept preferring rhetoric over military action. Maybe your counter argument is that Ukraine's success will only encourage more adventurism in U.S. foreign policy and wasted resources?
Quote from: milk on September 15, 2022, 04:58:10 AMI don't know what the metrics are for winning and losing.
No one does, which is why I asked what "really routed" means.
Since the US faces no immediate, negative consequences as a result of the war, it will continue to pursue its increasingly interventionist foreign policy, with more domestic fans of interventionism. Unfortunately/fortunately, the limits of US economic power are now more obvious, which will be taken advantage of by other rising powers, namely China and India.
Putin and Xi are meeting today in Uzbekistan. News alerts are going out from all the main sources. One outcome of this war is that Russia is now more dependent of China. But China is wisely looking at ways to reduce its reliance on Russia for things as mundane as non-fossil fuel trade, looking to expand southerly transport routes, not just by sea, but also by expanded rail networks through Central Asia and Iran. (The Great Game really does continue.) The 2030s, 2040s, and beyond could find Russia becoming a puppet of China. Maybe that is part of what being routed looks like.
Quote from: Wanderer on September 15, 2022, 02:26:14 AM
BREAKING: Hellenic Parliament ratified accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO! 🇬🇷🇫🇮🇸🇪
Just saw the great news on TV! Thank you Greece! $:)
🇬🇷
Some strangely appropriate interior design at the current meeting - a coffin shape at the centre, and shouting distance between the leaders.
As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide
"Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership."
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 15, 2022, 10:47:03 AM
Some strangely appropriate interior design at the current meeting - a coffin shape at the centre, and shouting distance between the leaders.
Indeed, the coffin is strikingly obvious to the eye. :D
Quote from: Florestan on September 15, 2022, 11:37:39 PM
Indeed, the coffin is strikingly obvious to the eye. :D
Perhaps intended for Putin's ego?
Wait, on second thought never mind... it isn't big enough.
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 15, 2022, 10:47:03 AM
Some strangely appropriate interior design at the current meeting - a coffin shape at the centre, and shouting distance between the leaders.
That
is creepy! ???
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 15, 2022, 11:02:00 AM
As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide
"Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership."
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
Sadly, I'm not that surprised. :(
"Ukraine war: Hundreds of graves found in liberated Izyum city - officials"
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62922674
PD
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 15, 2022, 11:02:00 AM
As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide
"Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership."
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
From the beginning Putin wanted more than assurances Ukraine wouldn't join NATO (he wanted Ukraine) and he would in any case have been an idiot had he taken such assurances seriously. Obviously, an agreement made under duress entails no obligation to later observe its terms. Putin likely green lighted the negotiation simply to gauge Ukraine's resolve and/or, if Ukraine refused to make assurances, to use this intransigence as a justification for the invasion he was planning all along. The authors sound a bit credulous.
Quote from: BasilValentine on September 16, 2022, 04:58:45 AM
From the beginning Putin wanted more than assurances Ukraine wouldn't join NATO (he wanted Ukraine) and he would in any case have been an idiot had he taken such assurances seriously. Obviously, an agreement made under duress entails no obligation to later observe its terms. Putin likely green lighted the negotiation simply to gauge Ukraine's resolve and/or, if Ukraine refused to make assurances, to use this intransigence as a justification for the invasion he was planning all along.
Of course.
Putin wants to ensure that Ukraine remains appropriately Russian.
He is far from the first Russian to refuse to accept a notion of a fully separate Ukrainian identity. They're allowed to be somewhat quirky and different (much as many cultures like to have some sort of cultural cousin you can poke fun at a bit), but they're still considered Russian.
Actual Ukrainians of course tend to feel rather differently about all this.
Quote from: Madiel on September 16, 2022, 07:53:34 PM
Putin wants to ensure that Ukraine remains appropriately Russian.
The land area in where the war has been taking place has enourmous sources of natural gas. Russia doesn't want Ukraine to build the infrastructure and start selling the gas to Europe and elsewhere becoming a competitor to Russian natural gas. It seems that Russia (Putin) assumed Europe to be much weaker and continue buying gas from Russia instead of supporting Ukraine and suffering energy crisis and inflation. The will of Ukrainians to defend their country was also overlooked badly. so, this war has lasted this long and Russia doesn't know what to do. Now, only undemocratic countries are willing to buy Russian gas and even China's support is questionable. Unless something drastic happens in Russia, it will become a large North Korea almost completely isolated from the rest of the World. The next winter will be cold in Europe, but in 5 years Europe has figured out how to get energy without Russia. That's when Russia is totally finished as a country. They have nothing but nukes just like North Korea.
China's New Vassal
How the War in Ukraine Turned Moscow Into Beijing's Junior Partner (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-new-vassal?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=weekend_read&utm_content=20220917&utm_campaign=FA%20Weekend%20Read_091722_China%E2%80%99s%20New%20Vassal&utm_term=FA%20Weekend%20Read-012320)
Judging from reports on recent developments, the fall of Kherson city to Ukranian troops could be imminent...
Quote from: Todd on September 17, 2022, 09:06:20 AM
China's New Vassal
How the War in Ukraine Turned Moscow Into Beijing's Junior Partner (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-new-vassal?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=weekend_read&utm_content=20220917&utm_campaign=FA%20Weekend%20Read_091722_China%E2%80%99s%20New%20Vassal&utm_term=FA%20Weekend%20Read-012320)
Jinping is the papa poo-bear. Putin will have to learn to supplicate. Maybe India will have to buy its weapons elsewhere.
Quote from: Todd on September 17, 2022, 09:06:20 AM
China's New Vassal
How the War in Ukraine Turned Moscow Into Beijing's Junior Partner (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-new-vassal?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=weekend_read&utm_content=20220917&utm_campaign=FA%20Weekend%20Read_091722_China%E2%80%99s%20New%20Vassal&utm_term=FA%20Weekend%20Read-012320)
That was August 9th. Now Russia is more like Chinas crybaby. With some nukes in its diaphers.
Quote from: The new erato on September 19, 2022, 12:52:56 AM
That was August 9th. Now Russia is more like Chinas crybaby. With some nukes in its diaphers.
Old news indeed, and totally predictable. The Russian Empire is gone, but Putin didn't get the memo.
Now he himself might end up on the receiving end of terriorial claims.
The Chines haven't forgotten about their loss of
Outer Manchuria (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria) to the Russian Empire... Strategically significant because with it, they also lost access to the Japanese Sea.
Quote from: The new erato on September 19, 2022, 12:52:56 AMThat was August 9th.
It was.
This was from June 6th: China's new vassal: Vladimir Putin (https://www.politico.eu/article/china-new-vassal-vladimir-putin/).
This was from April 6th: Could Putin's great gamble turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state? (https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/04/could-putins-great-gamble-turn-russia-into-a-chinese-vassal-state)
This was Paul Krugman tweeting on March 5th:
Quote from: Paul KrugmanIt would be ironic if Putin's attempt to reestablish the Russian empire ends up turning Russia into a Chinese vassal state. But that's exactly what will happen if he relies on China to bail him out now
Quote from: Que on September 19, 2022, 01:14:18 AMOld news indeed, and totally predictable.
Of course it is old news. When Putin responded to Obama's never quite satisfactory Pivot to Asia with Russia's Turn to the East in 2012, that should have been a more widely recognized sign of the shifts in Eurasia. Everyone will of course now say it was inevitable, well-known, etc.
Quote from: milk on September 18, 2022, 11:20:36 PMMaybe India will have to buy its weapons elsewhere.
Maybe. This does open opportunities for the US, but Indian leaders are not interested in another English-speaking overlord and are pursuing their own alternatives to the dollar. Negotiating with the next country that will overtake the US in economic size - mid-century in nominal GDP, next decade in PPP GDP - will prove trickier than dealing with European vassal states.
This war in Ukraine has totally unexpected consequences:
In 1997 McDonald's opened a restaurant in Rovaniemi, northern Finland (pretty much at the Arctic circle) which for years was the most northern McDonald's in the World until McDonald's opened a restaurant in Murmansk, Russia in 2013. Now McDonald's has left Russia because of the war and the Rovaniemi McDonald's is again the most northern one in the World.
:P
Quote from: 71 dB on September 19, 2022, 11:46:42 AM
This war in Ukraine has totally unexpected consequences:
In 1997 McDonald's opened a restaurant in Rovaniemi, northern Finland (pretty much at the Arctic circle) which for years was the most northern McDonald's in the World until McDonald's opened a restaurant in Murmansk, Russia in 2013. Now McDonald's has left Russia because of the war and the Rovaniemi McDonald's is again the most northern one in the World.
:P
Congratulations!(?) ;D
(* chortle *)
Quote from: BasilValentine on September 19, 2022, 12:02:37 PM
Congratulations!(?) ;D
Let's just say that I'd gladly live without the most northern McDonald's in the World being in my country if that would have prevented this insane war. :P
Quote from: Todd on September 19, 2022, 05:41:29 AM
It was.
This was from June 6th: China's new vassal: Vladimir Putin (https://www.politico.eu/article/china-new-vassal-vladimir-putin/).
This was from April 6th: Could Putin's great gamble turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state? (https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/04/could-putins-great-gamble-turn-russia-into-a-chinese-vassal-state)
This was Paul Krugman tweeting on March 5th:
Of course it is old news. When Putin responded to Obama's never quite satisfactory Pivot to Asia with Russia's Turn to the East in 2012, that should have been a more widely recognized sign of the shifts in Eurasia. Everyone will of course now say it was inevitable, well-known, etc.
Maybe. This does open opportunities for the US, but Indian leaders are not interested in another English-speaking overlord and are pursuing their own alternatives to the dollar. Negotiating with the next country that will overtake the US in economic size - mid-century in nominal GDP, next decade in PPP GDP - will prove trickier than dealing with European vassal states.
Especially if one has border clashes in the Himalayas with that next country every so often. Wasn't there one earlier this year?
China and India have border clashes with some regularity. More troubling are the border clashes India has with Pakistan.
Quote from: Todd on September 19, 2022, 05:41:29 AM
It was.
This was from June 6th: China's new vassal: Vladimir Putin (https://www.politico.eu/article/china-new-vassal-vladimir-putin/).
This was from April 6th: Could Putin's great gamble turn Russia into a Chinese vassal state? (https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/04/could-putins-great-gamble-turn-russia-into-a-chinese-vassal-state)
This was Paul Krugman tweeting on March 5th:
Of course it is old news. When Putin responded to Obama's never quite satisfactory Pivot to Asia with Russia's Turn to the East in 2012, that should have been a more widely recognized sign of the shifts in Eurasia. Everyone will of course now say it was inevitable, well-known, etc.
Maybe. This does open opportunities for the US, but Indian leaders are not interested in another English-speaking overlord and are pursuing their own alternatives to the dollar. Negotiating with the next country that will overtake the US in economic size - mid-century in nominal GDP, next decade in PPP GDP - will prove trickier than dealing with European vassal states.
China is big. It's certainly nothing to sneeze at. It also has big problems and it's not invincible. India is its own sort of mess.
Quote from: milk on September 19, 2022, 09:07:46 PM
China is big. It's certainly nothing to sneeze at. It also has big problems and it's not invincible. India is its own sort of mess.
I'm not even sure what "it's not invincible" really means, nor the statement about India being "its own sort of mess". All great powers face difficulties, all the time. The West, broadly speaking, has put itself in a position where it relies on overly financialized economic systems based upon excess debt and increasing exploitation of foreign manufacturing. It has succumbed to financial crises that have worsened economic inequality in multiple countries, contributed to the reemergence of Western-style nationalism, and the West could only produce a fumbling response to a pandemic. On top of that, most Western countries face inexorable demographic decline of a sort worse than what China faces. China can be vincible and India disorderly and still continue to grow economically and militarily and shift the global balance of power - which they have already done, China, in particular. The slow and steady then faster and more lurching growth of both countries follows paths not dissimilar from other ascending powers of the past. Some in The West will clearly have a hard time coming to terms with this fact. Hoping that those people don't really have what it takes will not prove effective. I have heard and read about how China will not
really become a great power for over thirty years.
In the not too distant future, as in this decade or next, we will see how China manages a global financial crisis it creates. It may or may not display the same type of policy flexibility that the US has demonstrated (eg, multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing piled on top of traditional expansionary monetary policy). How India manages its relationship with its nuclear armed, religiously hostile neighbor on its border will help determine its trajectory and how quickly it grows. The US, of course, still enjoys the strategic luxuries of two vast oceans separating itself from Eurasia and Africa, the primary reserve currency (which will end one day, perhaps in my lifetime), and resources of all types sufficient to help or hinder the rise of both countries, but the US has many challenges of its own to attend to as well. The American Century is over, and US leaders need to adapt.
An already much delayed television speech by Putin and Shoigu tonight is to be commented on state TV by the extreme nationalist Girkin/Strelkov, his first appearance there. The speech was probably pre-recorded, yet it is now two or three hours delayed.
That Girkin was to comment on it could be suggesting that some initiatives announced in the speech represent a further, militaristic escalation, in line with extreme right-wing criticism. Possibly even mobilization, or a mobilization in parts.
The soon-to-be pseudo-referendums in the invaded areas are also meant to support further threats or escalations, probably.
EDIT: RT has now removed the announcement of the speech ... so it was likely cancelled, or it's a psychological play of threats & it will maybe be played later.
Here's an earlier thread by Greg Yudin about the three general society groups in Russia (extreme right + passive laymen majority + critical voices), and the difficulties of a possible mobilization in relation to them:
https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1570101428542402561
Just checked the NATO ratification status: Thank you Spain and Portugal! $:)
🇪🇸 🇵🇹
Three countries left:
- Hungary and Slovakia have started the ratification process.
- Türkeya has not started the ratification process.
Norway is profiting embarrassingly from war in Europe (https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/09/08/norway-is-profiting-embarrassingly-from-war-in-europe)
Putin has signed a decree ordering mobilization of those with prior military experience. He estimates that this will make around 300,000 veterans available.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683
Quote from: LKB on September 21, 2022, 12:17:40 AM
Putin has signed a decree ordering mobilization of those with prior military experience. He estimates that this will make around 300,000 veterans available.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683
Yeah, I heard or read (forget which now) that news yesterday too. :( When is he going to just quit?!!
PD
Quote from: LKB on September 21, 2022, 12:17:40 AM
Putin has signed a decree ordering mobilization of those with prior military experience. He estimates that this will make around 300,000 veterans available.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62970683
Low-motivation "forces."
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 21, 2022, 06:27:15 AM
Low-motivation "forces."
I wonder how many of them will refuse to show up for duty? Or try and go into hiding for awhile? Perhaps a plus: they could end up keeping the police and the courts busy? And thereby help to increase opposition to the war? What do you think Karl...and others?
PD
Airplane tickets prices have skyrocketed after mobilization was announced. Apparently, the cost of a flight to Dubai is now 5,000 USD and the availability is very scarce. According to the French nespaper Le Monde, airways companies will be prohibited to sell tickets to Russians aged between 18 and 60 without special permit from the Ministry of Defense.
Also, protests occured this evening in Moscow and will possibly spread across the country in the coming days.
Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat
Putin threatens Finland with annihilation after Finnish pres said "Putin underestimated the West" - claims 100 additional missiles targeting Helsinki and Tampere and Turku - " let them eat Cobalt-60," he said according to a Romanian daily I skimmed over ..........
Quote from: Todd on September 20, 2022, 05:05:38 AM
I'm not even sure what "it's not invincible" really means, nor the statement about India being "its own sort of mess". All great powers face difficulties, all the time. The West, broadly speaking, has put itself in a position where it relies on overly financialized economic systems based upon excess debt and increasing exploitation of foreign manufacturing. It has succumbed to financial crises that have worsened economic inequality in multiple countries, contributed to the reemergence of Western-style nationalism, and the West could only produce a fumbling response to a pandemic. On top of that, most Western countries face inexorable demographic decline of a sort worse than what China faces. China can be vincible and India disorderly and still continue to grow economically and militarily and shift the global balance of power - which they have already done, China, in particular. The slow and steady then faster and more lurching growth of both countries follows paths not dissimilar from other ascending powers of the past. Some in The West will clearly have a hard time coming to terms with this fact. Hoping that those people don't really have what it takes will not prove effective. I have heard and read about how China will not really become a great power for over thirty years.
In the not too distant future, as in this decade or next, we will see how China manages a global financial crisis it creates. It may or may not display the same type of policy flexibility that the US has demonstrated (eg, multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing piled on top of traditional expansionary monetary policy). How India manages its relationship with its nuclear armed, religiously hostile neighbor on its border will help determine its trajectory and how quickly it grows. The US, of course, still enjoys the strategic luxuries of two vast oceans separating itself from Eurasia and Africa, the primary reserve currency (which will end one day, perhaps in my lifetime), and resources of all types sufficient to help or hinder the rise of both countries, but the US has many challenges of its own to attend to as well. The American Century is over, and US leaders need to adapt.
These sound like strong arguments Todd. You seem very well-read on these topics. I only have a little knowledge about this stuff so my views are very tentative. I think it's a big question whether liberalism can adapt to the pressures we're seeing. China has a lot of muscle certainly. You hammer at the flaws of the U.S. and western countries and it's hard to argue that these aren't very serious problems. I wonder what issues you're NOT sure about and what you think might trip up China? These are pretty big questions we're dealing with.
I do worry about Liberal Democracy which I think is still one part of humanity's hope. I see critical theories on the left and jingoism and nationalism on the right to be a rising problem in the States. The left's crazy ideas about immigration shows another untenable lurch toward self-destruction. Maybe you would point to foreign policy adventurism and economic policies as malignant. I haven't been to the U.S. in almost 30 years but it looks crazier and crazier. Japan, where I currently live, seems like another country that's asleep to the pitfalls of it's bad choices.
Anyway, Russia's/Putin's desperation worries me. Is there a way out for him that he can live with? One short of winning or madness?
Quote from: milk on September 21, 2022, 06:40:12 PMI wonder what issues you're NOT sure about and what you think might trip up China?
I am sure of nothing.
China, like the US, cannot be defeated in war in the sense that it would not lose territorial integrity or sovereignty. This condition can change for China (and the US), but it is impossible to see such a change in the next fifty to two hundred years, barring multiple environmental catastrophes far beyond the most dire currently modelled. (If enough countries allied against either China or the US, and such a high intensity conflict could be prevented from turning nuclear, then it would be theoretically possible for either power to be conquered sooner. So, in the real world, it is not possible.) China faces more or less well-known high-level problems. Inevitable demographic decline; slowing economic growth, with the attendant possibility that China does not escape the middle income trap*; corruption; a form of domestic capitalism so ruthless and without adequate legal safeguards that companies expand outward for survival at least as much as at the behest of the state; and hostile powers opposed to its rise. These issues
will trip up China, but believing that any of them will somehow result in China starting to wither anytime this century is pure wishful thinking. The world must adapt to a more powerful China.
* The so-called middle income trap requires steadfast
belief in western economic theory, and even if China does remain a middle income country, its sheer size will still result in nominal GDP sufficient to marshal national resources sufficient to build a war machine to rival the US, though China is more like Russia in that it can remain a land power with greater regional heft that will still erode US dominance to the point where US dominance no longer exists.
Quote from: milk on September 21, 2022, 06:40:12 PMI do worry about Liberal Democracy which I think is still one part of humanity's hope.
Liberal democracy is the hope of the West, not humanity.
Without going into it much, US politics is a hot mess (and an entertaining hot mess, at that), but it has been worse and more violent in the past. The US could destroy itself, but I am not concerned that will happen anytime soon, despite all the Cassandras online and in the press.
Quote from: milk on September 21, 2022, 06:40:12 PMAnyway, Russia's/Putin's desperation worries me. Is there a way out for him that he can live with? One short of winning or madness?
A negotiable settlement is still possible, but neither Russia nor the US are publicly willing to back down from their now hardened positions. You need not look any further than this forum to find people who actually believe in the innocence of the US as it pertains to the Russo-Ukrainian War. People so sure of that are a massive roadblock to resolving the war without potential further escalation, and certain additional deaths. Winning for either side has not been defined. Claims of Putin's madness, without clinical evidence, are exactly as useful and accurate as Hitler analogies.
Opinion Putin is getting desperate. Ukraine and the West must keep the pressure on. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/21/putin-ukraine-threats-response/)
Quote from: Florestan on September 21, 2022, 10:03:49 AM
Also, protests occured this evening in Moscow and will possibly spread across the country in the coming days.
Let it be so!
PD
A Russian paper (in exile) is reporting that Putin signed a law calling for a million conscripts.
Novaya Gazeta, an independent Russian newspaper-in-exile, on Thursday quoted an unnamed Kremlin source saying that the target number of one million men is written in Point 7 of Mr Putin's mobilisation order - a part that was redacted from publication.
More (https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/22/putin-passes-secret-law-to-send-one-million-russians-to-fight-in-ukraine/)
He [Biden] made the case that Russia's defeat is essential to every other sovereign country. "We chose liberty. We chose sovereignty. ... Each of us in this body who is determined to uphold the principles and beliefs we pledge to defend as members of the United Nations must be clear, firm and unwavering in our resolve." And he reminded the delegates that "Ukraine has the same rights that belong to every sovereign nation. We will stand in solidarity with Ukraine. We will stand in solidarity against Russia's aggression. Period." (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/22/biden-un-speech-human-rights/)
There's a long line of cars at the Finland-Russia border. Finland is beautiful this time of year.
Kazakhstan is sending oil to Europe. They are also increasing their defense budget in case they are discovered to be historically Russian. They would prefer to be historically Kazakh.
Yet one more example of Putin's pattern of lies, as recounted by the BBC:
" 'I will break my arm, my leg... anything to avoid the draft'
By Olesya Gerasimenko & Liza Fokht, BBC News
Sergei - not his real name - has already been called up.
The 26-year-old PhD student and lecturer was expecting a delivery of groceries the night before the Putin address, when two men arrived in civilian clothes handing him military papers to sign.
The Kremlin said only people who had done their military service and had special skills and combat experience would be called up.
But Sergei has no military experience and his stepfather is worried, as dodging the draft is a criminal offence in Russia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62992365
"Meanwhile, it only took a few hours for another group of mobilised Russians to get dead drunk. "What are we going for? Where are we going? F*ck knows!", one concludes."
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1572980605981163520
EDIT: there's already much more of such video material on the web, incl. https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1573240127731687430
Example of attitude among enlisted/relatives at meetings https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1573272879655010306 , https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1573210351721713664
A lot of Russians are coming to Finland to escape being drafted. Finland wants to stop Russians to come, but EU doesn't allow us to do so. Other eastern European countries have nullified Russian Visas and are angry Finland doesn't do the same (break EU rules). Everything is lunacy these days. ::)
Quote from: 71 dB on September 23, 2022, 09:22:02 AM
A lot of Russians are coming to Finland to escape being drafted. Finland wants to stop Russians to come, but EU doesn't allow us to do so. Other eastern European countries have nullified Russian Visas and are angry Finland doesn't do the same (break EU rules). Everything is lunacy these days. ::)
There could be an upside here.
At least some ( if not most ) of these Russians will not be lovers of Putin, and in a more democratic social environment, with freer access to western media, may feel strongly motivated to contribute whatever skills they possess.
So Finland could benefit in various unforeseen ways, though time will tell.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 23, 2022, 09:22:02 AM
A lot of Russians are coming to Finland to escape being drafted. Finland wants to stop Russians to come, but EU doesn't allow us to do so. Other eastern European countries have nullified Russian Visas and are angry Finland doesn't do the same (break EU rules). Everything is lunacy these days. ::)
EU rules don't allow it? I thought some of the Baltics were already doing something, or am I misremembering.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/us/politics/putin-ukraine.html
According to this report Putin is going the Hitler route: overruling the generals and implementing counter-effective strategies because of ego problems.
He's going to need a very long desk soon.
Quote from: LKB on September 23, 2022, 07:06:04 PM
There could be an upside here.
At least some ( if not most ) of these Russians will not be lovers of Putin, and in a more democratic social environment, with freer access to western media, may feel strongly motivated to contribute whatever skills they possess.
So Finland could benefit in various unforeseen ways, though time will tell.
Only some of the Russians are planning to stay in Finland. Many of them are heading to other countries. Finland is just the point of entry into the EU area. There can be both benefits and downsides of this.
Quote from: Madiel on September 23, 2022, 10:56:22 PM
EU rules don't allow it? I thought some of the Baltics were already doing something, or am I misremembering.
Yes, they (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) are by breaking EU rules. Finland tends to do things "by the book", but now they say next week Finland will stop Russians no matter what EU says, because the situation requires it and Finland can't wait forever for EU's blessing.
The sitution changes all the time, so who knows what happens...
Charles Michel says EU should allow Russian escaping Putin's tyrany to come to EU.
Quote from: Herman on September 23, 2022, 11:19:53 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/us/politics/putin-ukraine.html
According to this report Putin is going the Hitler route: overruling the generals and implementing counter-effective strategies because of ego problems.
He's going to need a very long desk soon.
Just like Hitler he runs the risk of entire brigades being surrounded and subsequently captured.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 24, 2022, 04:05:28 AM
...
Charles Michel says EU should allow Russian escaping Putin's tyrany to come to EU.
"Should" being the key word. "Should" and not "must". EU countries are sovereign to deny admission to persons entering from outside the Union. Once inside, there's freedom of movement within the Schengen area (and even that can be restricted unilaterally).
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 22, 2022, 10:23:01 PM
"Meanwhile, it only took a few hours for another group of mobilised Russians to get dead drunk. "What are we going for? Where are we going? F*ck knows!", one concludes."
https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1572980605981163520
EDIT: there's already much more of such video material on the web, incl. https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1573240127731687430
Example of attitude among enlisted/relatives at meetings https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1573272879655010306 , https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1573210351721713664
It sounds like absolute chaos...people being drafted who "supposedly" have previous military experience--and do not. And it sounds like that there are a lot of the newbies (not to mention some with actual military experience who are already there in Ukraine) asking "Why are we here?!".
And, I should have prefaced this with, thank you for those links.
PD
Quote from: ritter on September 24, 2022, 04:45:02 AM
EU countries are sovereign to deny admission to persons entering from outside the Union.
Exactly. If Finland denied admission to Russian citizens it wouldn't break any EU rule.
Actually, very recently there was talk at high EU levels about officially denying admission into EU to all Russian citizens, a move which was strongly opposed by Hungary and which I deem absurd.
Quote from: ritter on September 24, 2022, 04:45:02 AM
EU countries are sovereign to deny admission to persons entering from outside the Union. Once inside, there's freedom of movement within the Schengen area (and even that can be restricted unilaterally).
The issue seems to be VERY problematic politically in my country... :-X
Quote from: 71 dB on September 24, 2022, 05:20:16 AM
The issue seems to be VERY problematic politically in my country... :-X
I can imagine, with Finland being one of the main "escape routes" for Russians. We in Spain are at the other end of the continent, so we really cannot get a good grasp of what it might be like over there...
Quote from: ritter on September 24, 2022, 05:25:27 AM
I can imagine, with Finland being one of the main "escape routes" for Russians. We in Spain are at the other end of the continent, so we really cannot get a good grasp what what it might be like over there...
Good points.
PD
Quote from: ritter on September 24, 2022, 05:25:27 AM
I can imagine, with Finland being one of the main "escape routes" for Russians. We in Spain are at the other end of the continent, so we really cannot get a good grasp of what it might be like over there...
Well, the it is the same for people coming from Morocco to Spain...
Quote from: 71 dB on September 24, 2022, 04:05:28 AM
Only some of the Russians are planning to stay in Finland. Many of them are heading to other countries. Finland is just the point of entry into the EU area. There can be both benefits and downsides of this.
I am pretty sure that among those Russians are not a few covert FSB agents who under the guise of fleeing the mobilization will spread in the EU with the official mission of sabotaging it. ;D
The Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs made a good point: there is no reason why, in the name of humanitarianism, we should admit in our country Russian citizens who protest and flee the war in Ukraine only when it affects them directly.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 24, 2022, 07:08:31 AM
Well, the it is the same for people coming from Morocco to Spain...
Not quite. That is a "structural" phenomenon, not something that is "suddenly" happening.
Quote from: ritter on September 24, 2022, 08:56:46 AM
Not quite. That is a "structural" phenomenon, not something that is "suddenly" happening.
Sorry, I don't know about suddenly happening things in Spain...
Quote from: Florestan on September 24, 2022, 07:51:36 AM
I am pretty sure that among those Russians are not a few covert FSB agents who under the guise of fleeing the mobilization will spread in the EU with the official mission of sabotaging it. ;D
These kind of risks have been considered and estimated very low.
I just found this article (Reuters) from two days ago saying that, as of the time of writing that article, that there was no evidence that Putin had put restrictions on the sale of plane tickets to men between certain ages. Have we heard anything more recently? https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-russia-airlines/fact-check-no-evidence-russian-airlines-were-ordered-to-stop-selling-tickets-to-russian-men-aged-18-to-65-idUSL1N30T1PD
Surprised that Putin hasn't put any driving/walking, etc. restrictions at border crossings--if he is in fact trying to stop men from leaving the country?
PD
U.S. warns Putin of 'catastrophic' consequences over nuclear weapons (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-warns-putin-catastrophic-consequences-if-nuclear-weapons-used-ukraine-2022-09-25/)
One can watch the Meet the Press segment as well: 'There will be catastrophic consequences for Russia' if they use nuclear weapons: Full Jake Sullivan interview (https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/-the-russian-army-is-in-trouble-full-jake-sullivan-interview-149214277649)
Quote from: Todd on September 25, 2022, 09:21:27 AM
U.S. warns Putin of 'catastrophic' consequences over nuclear weapons (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-warns-putin-catastrophic-consequences-if-nuclear-weapons-used-ukraine-2022-09-25/)
One can watch the Meet the Press segment as well: 'There will be catastrophic consequences for Russia' if they use nuclear weapons: Full Jake Sullivan interview (https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/-the-russian-army-is-in-trouble-full-jake-sullivan-interview-149214277649)
Russians will not use nuclear weapons, for two reasons:
(1) they will not use them against the West because that's where their offsprings and relatives live and spend their money: New York, Paris and London, not Kazan, Novosibirsk and Vladivostok;
(2) a tactic nuclear bomb detonated in Ukraine will impact Russia as well, see Chernobyl.
It's all bellicose propaganda for an increasingly sceptical and reluctant internal market.
Quote from: Florestan on September 25, 2022, 09:38:56 AM
(2) a tactic nuclear bomb detonated in Ukraine will impact Russia as well, see Chernobyl.
This is very likely wrong. Depending on the tactical weapon used, the fallout may not be significant enough to deter Russia from using one. There is no reasonable basis to think that Russia would use a weapon with a yield sufficient to cause widespread damage equivalent to Chernobyl.
The public exchanges regarding use of nuclear weapons is indeed wartime propaganda on both sides. Sometimes, though, people act irrationally to save face.
Fortunately, since I live on the West Coast of the US, it doesn't matter to me if one or two tactical nukes detonate in Ukraine, just as Chernobyl did not matter to me.
Quote from: Todd on September 25, 2022, 09:55:35 AM
Fortunately, since I live on the West Coast of the US, it doesn't matter to me if one or two tactical nukes detonate in Ukraine, just as Chernobyl did not matter to me.
I refuse to believe that you really mean that. I believe you're just playing the cynic for the sake of playing the cynic.
Quote from: Florestan on September 25, 2022, 10:00:28 AM
I refuse to believe that you really mean that. I believe you're just playing the cynic for the sake of playing the cynic.
No, I mean it. It would obviously be far preferable if nuclear weapons were never used again by anyone. However, if a tactical nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine, or in some other area in the case of a Russian show of force designed to force peace negotiations, the direct impact to me and to all other residents of the US is basically nil. Obviously, a nuclear detonation in Ukraine would cause severe market declines, so my net worth would decline temporarily, but since I would not sell, I would realize no losses. Clearly, the biggest risk would be in escalation, and specifically if the US retaliates in a direct, commensurate manner. Again, if Russia does use a nuclear weapon, the manner in which one is used would determine the severity of the response, which I am certain they know.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 25, 2022, 10:19:50 AMIt is a reductionist mindset without nuance that only evaluates the world by direct stimuli, ignoring all else.
Incorrect.
Also, I do not succumb to fear mongering about North Korea. It is odd that a UK resident would.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 25, 2022, 10:43:46 AM
The sky is green. There. It is, because I said so.
And here I thought the UK had reasonably clear air.
Quote from: Todd on September 25, 2022, 10:37:56 AM
No, I mean it.
Much as I will miss your strictly musical posts, straight on my ignore list you go --- the one and only GMGer ever to be so repugnant and disgusting to me.
Quote from: Florestan on September 25, 2022, 11:09:14 AM
Much as I will miss your strictly musical posts, straight on my ignore list you go --- the one and only GMGer ever to be so repugnant and disgusting to me.
You are a very good person.
Quote from: Florestan on September 25, 2022, 10:00:28 AM
I refuse to believe that you really mean that. I believe you're just playing the cynic for the sake of playing the cynic.
When they tell you who they are, believe them.
Separately:
What the Ukrainians Need to Succeed (https://www.thebulwark.com/what-the-ukrainians-need-to-succeed/)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 25, 2022, 12:55:00 PM
When they tell you who they are, believe them.
There's always room for repentance.
From Jeffrey Sachs: The West's False Narrative about Russia and China (https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/h29g9k7l7fymxp39yhzwxc5f72ancr)
He must be on Russia's payroll or something.
China's, perhaps, not Russia's:
' In a Jan. 24 interview with The Wire China, Sachs responded to two questions about China's genocidal policies in Xinjiang by accounting America's own human rights failings.
"We have huge human rights abuses committed by the U.S. on so many fronts that the first thing we need to do is think of Jesus's admonition: Why do you look at the mote in the other's eye, and not the beam in your own?" Sachs said.
Sachs said nothing about China's repression of the Uyghurs despite repeated prompting from the interviewer. '
https://www.axios.com/2021/02/23/china-uyghurs-columbia-rights-sachs
Quote from: LKB on September 25, 2022, 02:06:55 PMSachs said nothing about China's repression of the Uyghurs despite repeated prompting from the interviewer. '
https://www.axios.com/2021/02/23/china-uyghurs-columbia-rights-sachs
The genocide against the Uyghurs is an internal Chinese issue. It is dreadful. It is also not America's problem to solve. The same applies to other genocides around the world - eg, the genocide against the Rohingya in Myanmar.
Russians vote with their feet against Putin's folly (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/09/25/opinion/russians-vote-with-their-feet-against-putins-folly/)
Lest anyone have any doubts about American intentions since the 90s, here's a little something from Zbigniew Brzezinski from 1997, the same year George Kennan warned against expanding NATO:
Quote from: Zbigniew Brzezinski, in The Grand Chessboard, American Primacy and Its Geostrategic ImperativesUkraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians, who would then be resentful of the loss of their recent independence and would be supported by their fellow Islamic states to the south. China would also be likely to oppose any restoration of Russian domination over Central Asia, given its increasing interest in the newly independent states there. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia. Ukraine's loss of independence would have immediate consequences for Central Europe, transforming Poland into the geopolitical pivot on the eastern frontier of a united Europe.
It is a straight line from this Mackinderian analysis to Bush's actions of 2008, Obama's of 2014, and statements by Biden and Austin this year. Sometimes people really should believe what senior security professionals write.
The Tufts and Congressional Research Service catalogs of post-Cold War US military interventions also aligns with the aggressive, militaristic foreign policy of the US, under both parties, since 1991.
'Murica.
Quote from: Florestan on September 24, 2022, 08:10:48 AM
The Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs made a good point: there is no reason why, in the name of humanitarianism, we should admit in our country Russian citizens who protest and flee the war in Ukraine only when it affects them directly.
I am not so sure it is a good point, given that protesting in Russia is not a very safe thing to do.
Of course there were already people who left Russia when the war started. I think many of them ended up in Georgia.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 25, 2022, 01:27:52 AM
Personally, I would have closed the EU borders long since. All those young men now fleeing? Tough. You serve Mother Russia by staying there and defending it from the predations of a maniac, not by taking the easy option of disappearing for a convenient amount of time.
I can't help but notice, also, that all these young men now so concerned about their futures were just fine with Russia breaking just about every international law and agreement they ever signed up to, including the commission of war crimes, until it came just a bit too close to home for their comfort. Where were their voices before the partial mobilisation? Nowhere, because they were just fine -fine enough to acquiesce in it, anyway- with what Putin was up to. Well, I don't think anyone should be granting refuge to such unprincipled, immoral actors.
If the only people left in Russia are the ones who are happy with what Putin is up to, his rule will never be brought to an end. So send the escapees back, after making them watch the news from places such as Bucha and Izium. Maybe that can make a difference.
You're making a HELL of a lot of assumptions here. How do you know they were "just fine" with what Russia was already doing? How exactly were you going to hear their voices before that?
If the only way to indicate your disagreement with a policy of your homeland is to leave your homeland, well... nearly every person on this forum can just be assumed to be in lock step with all of the policies of their national government, right? RIGHT? Because that's pretty much what you're saying.
Your willingness to assert that Russians ought to go home and face jail and torture does you no credit.
Quote from: Todd on September 25, 2022, 02:15:07 PM
The genocide against the Uyghurs is an internal Chinese issue. It is dreadful. It is also not America's problem to solve. The same applies to other genocides around the world - eg, the genocide against the Rohingya in Myanmar.
What does this mean? Do you think think journalists and historians, for example, ought to cover events of the world, to document human suffering? I get the idea of non-intervention. That's a moral and policy question. But "internal issue" sounds like "none of our business." Anything that happens is fair game in a free society. Too bad if Chinese want to play by different rules. North Korea doesn't get to tell me what I can know about even when it happens inside their country. The plight of the Rohingya people matters outside of Myanmar.
Quote from: milk on September 26, 2022, 02:40:25 AMDo you think think journalists and historians, for example, ought to cover events of the world, to document human suffering?
Absolutely. Everyone ought to know all the horrible things that all countries, powerful or weak, engage in, both internationally and domestically.
When I use the phrase internal issue, I mean it in the sense that it is a domestic political issue for a given country to resolve. It is not the responsibility of the US to resolve the Uyghur genocide, or the Rohingya genocide, just as it was not the responsibility of the US to intervene in the Rwandan genocide or to take material policy steps to prevent five million excess deaths in Congo.
The US can certainly engage in the policy equivalent of finger wagging, taking issues to the UN, issuing very firm policy statements, imposing sanctions, ratcheting up tariffs, or whatever. In the case of the Uyghur genocide, Congress passed and President Biden signed the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which further expands the use of tariffs against China. This is further, concrete, legislative evidence of the bipartisan embrace of mercantilism. Of course, the legislation is purposely very narrow, prohibiting goods built with forced labor made in Xinjiang from entering the US, but it does not prevent other Chinese manufactured goods from entering the US. This indicates just how unserious the US government is about this issue. If the US were truly concerned about the Uyghur genocide, if the US saw this as something other than a convenient policy issue to use as a cudgel when desired, it would impose far harsher and broader sanctions, with the explicit intention of weakening the Chinese economy. That approach would cause economic harm to the US, so in practical terms the US has demonstrated how much/little the situation in Xinjiang matters.
As to the plight of the Rohingya, I should like to know how it matters to the US. Sure, the situation is terrible for the Rohingya people, and the actions are immoral and all that, but so? In the US, outside specialized policy circles, people do not discuss the topic IRL, the mainstream press covers it fleetingly, and the US government clearly does not address it as either a material national security issue (which is good, because it is not) or a humanitarian crisis worthy of a material policy response beyond sending some money. Clearly, the crisis in Myanmar has immediate impact to surrounding countries because of the refugee crisis, but it does not represent a material strategic or economic concern for the US. More important will be if the US can work with the Myanmar government, whatever form it takes, as a small, regional counterbalance to China. If the best practical solution is to accept a brutal regime, then the US may very well end up doing that. The US has a long history of working with brutal dictators so long as said dictators are our sons of bitches.
CNN just showed footage of the cars lined up to enter Georgia from Russia; it's apparently, 2-days long!
PD
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 09:32:39 AMWhy on Earth Georgia accepts any of them, I can't imagine.
Georgia accepted over 50,000 Russians in the first four months of the war. What you can imagine does not matter to Georgians.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 09:32:39 AM
Why on Earth Georgia accepts any of them, I can't imagine. If any country has an understandable right to turn Russians back with prejudice, it's Georgia...
Bear in mind that all those fleeing are those that have the cash to flee. The poor sods from Dagestan don't have that opportunity! I don't know why any country is permitting rich, entitled, acquiescent, young, healthy Russian males to flee the intolerable imposition of conscription!
If history repeats itself (which it doesn't, but let's run with it), I'd say Chechnya was the equivalent of the re-militarization of the Rhineland ('it's their own back yard'); Georgia was probably the equivalent of Austria; Crimea was a re-enactment of Czechoslovakia Part 1, and February this year was probably Czechoslovakia Part 2, March 1939. I have no idea where we're actually headed, but the parallels are not good.
Considering what a horrible state the Russian troops are in (with Putin wanting to add yet more untrained and unmotivated men to it which would water things down even worse with no leadership, etc.), I'm more worried about him using other "options" like chemical or nuclear myself.
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 26, 2022, 09:46:15 AM
Considering what a horrible state the Russian troops are in (with Putin wanting to add yet more untrained and unmotivated men to it which would water things down even worse with no leadership, etc.), I'm more worried about him using other "options" like chemical or nuclear myself.
PD
Putin's Top Cheerleaders Panic Over Russian Army 'Mutiny' (https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-top-cheerleaders-panic-over-mobilization-mutiny?ref=home)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 26, 2022, 10:00:50 AM
Putin's Top Cheerleaders Panic Over Russian Army 'Mutiny' (https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-top-cheerleaders-panic-over-mobilization-mutiny?ref=home)
Yeah, I've been reading/hearing about "mistakes made" during the attempts at drumming up ex-military and other folks who should have fit the criteria (which I had thought that it was supposed to be--currently at least--the reserves?). With no military experience and what, maybe a week or two of training, what can they hope for at the best? It's chaos.
Not surprised to read about rusty guns and lack of protective gear, etc. too.
PD
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 09:32:39 AM
Why on Earth Georgia accepts any of them, I can't imagine. If any country has an understandable right to turn Russians back with prejudice, it's Georgia...
Bear in mind that all those fleeing are those that have the cash to flee. The poor sods from Dagestan don't have that opportunity! I don't know why any country is permitting rich, entitled, acquiescent, young, healthy Russian males to flee the intolerable imposition of conscription!
If history repeats itself (which it doesn't, but let's run with it), I'd say Chechnya was the equivalent of the re-militarization of the Rhineland ('it's their own back yard'); Georgia was probably the equivalent of Austria; Crimea was a re-enactment of Czechoslovakia Part 1, and February this year was probably Czechoslovakia Part 2, March 1939. I have no idea where we're actually headed, but the parallels are not good.
How much cash does it take to fill a gas tank and drive to the border? I could flee to Canada (and I've thought about it) for $10.
Who'd have thought there were so many rich people in Russia? — thousands upon thousands of rich people in little cars driving to Finland! And they're all healthy too! What a paradise it must have been last week before conscription!
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 01:35:22 PM
So your sarcasm suggest you think the exodus is full of unhealthy, poor males right? Just so we're clear...
Do you have any demographic data on the people fleeing Russia, and more to the point, do you know the income earned by and assets owned by the people fleeing? If not, your assertions lack a factual basis.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 12:21:36 AM
The fact that we're hearing them now tells us that we could have heard them earlier, if they were there to hear. Thousands protesting and hundreds getting arrested: that's a voice. Before now... almost total silence.
I think your logic is flawed at this point, for we are seeing, now, that there are *lots* of ways to indicate disagreement with a policy of Putin's devising that don't consist of leaving the country. So, I can compare "now" with "then" and conclude, reasonably I think, that most Russian people just didn't give much of a damn one way or another that they'd invaded their neighbour... right until the point that their sons might have to get involved doing the pointy-end of the invading. At which point it is suddenly worth getting beaten up in public for!
With regard to the point about 'if you don't leave your country, you must agree with the government's policies'. First, I wasn't even saying that all Russians were in lock-step with, or actively supporting, Putin's war policy. Just that they were apathetic enough to acquiesce in it, until the consequences of it hit home. Second, it's a silly argument to make about anyone living in an actual democracy: no-one needs to leave the UK in order to express disagreement with Liz Truss, just as you don't need to leave Oz to express disagreement with Albo. So, no, that's not what I'm "pretty much" saying in the slightest. Reductio ad absurdum.
It's "pretty much" exactly what the President of Lithuania was saying the other day, so I don't think expressing it does my credit rating any damage whatsoever.
I assert that young male Russians should go home and protest and rebel. There's a potential cost to that. It's a cost I don't have to face paying, of course. But actions of a government you acquiesced in becoming a totalitarian regime have consequences, and it's about time those young men found that out -and did something about.
All I have to say to this right now is that you have absolutely no idea how media works. You seem to believe that anyone in Russia can just leap into your feed at any moment they choose. Or send you a text message to let you know their thoughts. And you're asking why they waited until now to send you a message.
There's a complete lack of realism to your desires that is very reminiscent of how people would demand that Muslims publicly condemn every terrorist attack and ask why they hadn't done something about it earlier. The falsehood is in believing that YOU were paying attention earlier. That people only blink into existence at the moment you and the media are paying attention.
The fact that you didn't hear someone does not mean they weren't speaking. It just means there wasn't a microphone. Or a camera. A person who wasn't broadcast into your living room had an entire life before that moment that you know nothing about.
It's a trivial example, but I moved home this year, largely prompted by some bad neighbours around my old house. From when I first found the situation bad to the day I actually left, was about 15.5 months. It took about 10 months before I first looked at a new house to buy. The logic you're employing would suggest that nothing at all happened until the day the moving van appeared. That because it took some time before I showed a sign that YOU could see, everything was fine before that.
Quote from: Todd on September 26, 2022, 05:01:03 AM
When I use the phrase internal issue, I mean it in the sense that it is a domestic political issue for a given country to resolve.
"Resolving the issue internally" means "finishing the job".
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 09:19:58 PM
You are quick to imagine you have the slightest idea about the way I think or my sources of information.
And quit with the shouting in caps lock mode. It's tiresome.
Oh, please do tell me how you've been monitoring the lives of all the people currently trying to leave Russia. I'd be fascinated.
Two individual words in caps is not shouting in caps lock. SHOUTING IN CAPS LOCK ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE THIS TO ANY NOTMAL PERSON.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 11:52:09 PM
You're so angry right now, you can't even spell 'normal' properly.
I have an opinion, based as all opinions are, on information received. Am I claiming I'm the NSA? No. Am I claiming you have no idea what my sources are? Yes.
Leave people to have their opinions instead of getting angry and incoherent.
If you have a different opinion, then I'm happy to debate opinions and propositions, but I'm not prepared to put up with people making (false) deductions about me **personally** because they happen to not like my **opinions**.
The misspelling in the faux shouting was ironic. The fact that you think I wrote that post in anger is actually kind of hilarious.
You are drawing conclusions that people ought to stay in a country where they will face jail and quite possibly torture. You should be able to explain the basis on which you're drawing that conclusion. And rather than telling me I have no idea of your sources, how about you tell me what those sources are? Otherwise it just comes across as mere puffery on your part. Saying that you have special knowledge is not remotely convincing when you won't say what the knowledge is. I could tell you that I'm an expert in absolutely anything if I didn't have to provide evidence.
The whole claim that people should have dodged the draft before there was any draft to dodge really just seems bizarre to me. Regardless of whether it's made here or by a Baltic politician.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 27, 2022, 03:29:45 AM
We do this all the time, however: allow individuals to suffer in some way, so that what is thought to be a greater aggregate good is achieved. It's why we punish drunk drivers, so that other drivers might get the message that driving drunk is a bad idea.
Equating the punishment of drunk drivers, who have broken a law, with forcibly conscripting men to fight in a war might just be the most bizarre thing you've said. We don't randomly select individual drivers to be fined or lose their licence or be sent to jail on the basis of their birthday or postcode.
Suffering the consequences of your own individual actions and suffering the consequences of the actions of an authoritarian government that you happen to be the subject of, without having had much say in the matter, are 2 completely different propositions. Yet you seem completely happy mixing them together. So this is the point where I just start ignoring a line of thinking you would almost certainly not want visited upon yourself, but seem to be pretty casual about visiting upon others.
One wonders whether you think it was morally wrong for Ukrainians to flee Ukraine. One wonders, but one doesn't really have that much interest in finding out.
I simply have no admiration for people who sit behind their keyboard and pronounce that other people ought to put their life on the line.
I certainly have admiration for people who do choose to put their life on the line. But it's a choice. A courageous one. There is nothing at all courageous about trying to impose that decision on others from afar.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 27, 2022, 03:29:45 AMMy hope is that if they rebel, and the regime collapses, the amount of jailing and torturing will be kept to a minimum.
This sentence delights.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 01:35:22 PM
So your sarcasm suggest you think the exodus is full of unhealthy, poor males right? Just so we're clear...
Your logic is defective. I claimed nothing about anyone's health or financial status, you did.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 01:35:22 PM
You need to see the reports of air flights to Turkey for $17000+, I suspect.
I'm not planning any travel.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 01:35:22 PMThe idea of what you can do US-Canada, both democracies, in a time of peace, as being in any way representative of anything to do with Russia->Anywhere is ridiculous. I think you know this.
And yet many thousands of Russians are driving to borders and crossing. In cars. So, not ridiculouos at all, is it?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 01:35:22 PMI will happily concede that I know nothing of the demographics of the people crossing borders. If you'll concede the same, since it's equally likely, then I think we're done.
I didn't claim to know the demographics. You did, stated them in detail, and were willing to send thousands to their deaths based on this knowledge you now concede is fictional.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 27, 2022, 04:48:24 AMI didn't actually claim to know the demographics
Incorrect.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 26, 2022, 09:32:39 AMI don't know why any country is permitting rich, entitled, acquiescent, young, healthy Russian males to flee the intolerable imposition of conscription!
This sentence more than implies knowledge.
You wrote fiction and passed it off as fact. This is common on the internet.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 27, 2022, 05:08:37 AMSo you're wrong on all counts, I think.
The fact that you now make it point to clarify that you have no knowledge of demographics indicates otherwise.
The sudden, major leakages in both Russo-German Nord Stream pipes in the Baltic Sea are definitely the result of sabotage undersea, and experts here are discussing a lot, who the perpetrator is; a bit surprisingly perhaps, some are pointing to Russian intelligence, and not the US; Biden has actually warned, that the US could do such a thing. Given our NATO membership history, it's highly unlikely that the US would be called a suspect from Danish officials, or that a first inquiry would make such a conclusion ... but Russia will have some advantages from the leakages too, now that the gas export via the pipes went down a lot already - such as trying to facilitate anti-war feelings among the German public this winter, or using it for a generally escalated rhetoric.
The leakages will also cause environmental problems.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 27, 2022, 05:21:09 AM
I clarify now because you seem confused on the point.
Or are just being willfully obtuse about it.
For which reason, back on the ignore list you go.
Very good.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 27, 2022, 05:08:37 AM
The sentence you quote makes no claims to knowledge. It certainly asserts qualities about those fleeing, but those are relatively simple and straightforward deductions that are likely to be true, IMHO.
Those fleeing conscription will not be 80 year olds on zimmer frames, for example.
They will also need to have resources to live in the country to which they flee, for however long, meaning that it is likely they are not going to be dirt-poor, either.
So, probably young(ish) and in reasonably good health and with reasonable amounts of financial backing, then.
The 'acquiescent' adjective arises from the fact that they're only fleeing now, when there are personal consequences for something they've previously not protested in bulk about.
I mentioned 'entitled', too, because it seems to me they were quite comfortable with their country annexing and invading other peoples' territory, right up until the point they were personally asked to pay the price. People who think they should get benefits for free I would describe as 'entitled'.
So you're wrong on all counts, I think.
They may not be that affluent: much easier to abandon your property in Russia when you don't have that much to abandon.
Also, Russia being Russia, affluent families would be better able to pull strings or pay outright bribes to immunize or at least extricate family members from mobilization.
From a Time magazine article:
Although Russian state television has shown crowds of eager men lining up to enlist, the chaos of the mobilization order has also prompted rare criticism from pro-Kremlin figures. Some commentators have said that draft officers who call up the wrong people should be sent to the front to fight themselves.
Lord says this is part of a new effort by the Kremlin to pin blame on Russia's failure on Russia's Defense Ministry, with Deputy Minister Dmitry Bulgakov sacked last week. However, the issuing of draft papers to students, the infirm, and people with little combat experience, Lord adds, was likely a direct result of Kremlin quotas that local commissars were scrambling to fulfill.
Chechnya leader and staunch Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov—who has prominently mobilized his people to volunteer for Russia in Ukraine—even felt it necessary to clarify that the mobilization order did not apply to his people, who he said had already fulfilled their quotas for fighting men.
Meanwhile, enlistment offices and other administrative buildings have been torched by Molotov cocktails since Putin's order. Independent media outlets noted at least 17 such incidents in recent days, reports the AP.
In the Siberian city of Ust-Ilimsk, one man walked into the enlistment office on Monday and shot the military commandant. Local media reports that the gunman was upset that his friend with no combat experience was drafted. On Sunday, a man set himself ablaze at a bus station in Ryazan, a city about 130 miles southeast of Moscow, shouting he didn't want to fight. He survived with minor injuries and was placed under arrest.
PD
Thank you Slovakia! $:)
🇸🇰
It's fascinating having absolutelybaching tell multiple people how they misread and misunderstood. I suspect we all read just fine and are being blamed for the author's miswriting and misthinking.
Heck, when I'm in persistent agreement with Todd, something is clearly going on.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 27, 2022, 11:09:41 AM
Thank you Slovakia! $:)
🇸🇰
Not many to go. I realise that Türkiye might be the tricky one.
As for the discussion of whether the young Russian men should stay in Russia, I note that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as late as yesterday, urged them to flee the country.
The European Union's Frontex border control agency said 66,000 Russians have entered the EU in the past week, according to DW, the German news service.
Quote from: (: premont :) on September 27, 2022, 01:49:25 PM
As for the discussion of whether the young Russian men should stay in Russia, I note that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as late as yesterday, urged them to flee the country.
If I was the Uke tator I'd urge Russians to leave and Russia to stop them.
Quote from: (: premont :) on September 27, 2022, 01:49:25 PM
As for the discussion of whether the young Russian men should stay in Russia, I note that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as late as yesterday, urged them to flee the country.
Good to know.
As expected:
" Russia claims win in occupied Ukraine 'sham' referendums "
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63052207
Putin may announce annexation as soon as Friday, when he's scheduled to address the Duma.
Quote from: Madiel on September 27, 2022, 01:29:00 PM
Not many to go. I realise that Türkiye might be the tricky one.
Not many. Two of the least democratic and most authoritarian NATO countries. :-\
Quote from: 71 dB on September 27, 2022, 02:42:32 PM
Not many. Two of the least democratic and most authoritarian NATO countries. :-\
Between the sham referendums in Ukraine and the presumed imminent annexation of those regions, l expect Edrogan to take advantage with some sort of squeeze play, to counteract his reduced influence with Putin. Perhaps he'll demand further concessions from both candidates.
Hopefully I'm wrong - Sweden and Finland deserve better - but Edrogan isn't interested in being a good ally.
Quote from: MusicTurner on September 27, 2022, 05:16:42 AM
The sudden, major leakages in both Russo-German Nord Stream pipes in the Baltic Sea are definitely the result of sabotage undersea, and experts here are discussing a lot, who the perpetrator is; a bit surprisingly perhaps, some are pointing to Russian intelligence, and not the US; Biden has actually warned, that the US could do such a thing. Given our NATO membership history, it's highly unlikely that the US would be called a suspect from Danish officials, or that a first inquiry would make such a conclusion ... but Russia will have some advantages from the leakages too, now that the gas export via the pipes went down a lot already - such as trying to facilitate anti-war feelings among the German public this winter, or using it for a generally escalated rhetoric.
The leakages will also cause environmental problems.
My guess is the Russians did it to amp up pressure on Germany. I'm thinking in terms of a big cat called the Leopard.
(https://www.kmweg.com/fileadmin/user_upload/fce/gallery/Leopard-2-A7-KMW-001.jpg)
So the Russians are reinforcing the message that they don'r want big fierce German cats anywhere near them. I think they are getting what they want. Germany won't send them.
Quote from: drogulus on September 27, 2022, 07:22:17 PM
My guess is the Russians did it to amp up pressure on Germany. I'm thinking in terms of a big cat called the Leopard.
So the Russians are reinforcing the message that they don'r want big fierce German cats anywhere near them. I think they are getting what they want. Germany won't send them.
I think you're right about Russia and its motives, but it could also backfire. Germany might feel the need to reassert itself and has now less to lose with the Nordstream pipelines out of the equation.
Cutting off dependency is a double edged sword, as Putin will find out.
A couple of stories that I found to be of interest: Turkish banks are halting Russia's Mir Payment System. "More than half of Russia's population is estimated to have a Mir card, which Russia began developing in 2015 to bypass Western sanctions." And guess who is fleeing to Turkey?
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/28/all-turkish-banks-halt-russias-mir-payment-system-reports-a78916
There was another article that I read earlier (also in the Moscow Times) which I'm trying to locate. Basically, it was detailing how certain countries' leaders were increasingly distancing themselves from Putin, becoming more critical of the war in Ukraine, leaving him waiting for them to show up at scheduled meetings (apparently Putin is famous for doing that); indications of changes in political dynamics going on...ah! Found it: "Central Asia Drifts Out of Russia's Orbit as Ukraine War Rages" How much has the balance of power and influence shifted and Russia's influence in the area declined? Interesting to read about and contemplate....
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/24/central-asia-drifts-out-of-russias-orbit-as-ukraine-war-rages-a78842
PD
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 27, 2022, 07:57:52 PM
"Misthinking"?!
Sounds positively Orwellian... and, not for the first time, a demonstration of an inability or an unwillingness to discuss any of the substantive points I've made at length over the past several posts. Instead, you seem only able to resort either to personal critique or, now, charges of "misthinking".
If that's how you handle rational debate, go knock yourself out, but I shall pass.
I've discussed the substantive point extensively. The fact that I don't agree with your values in asking ordinary Russians to put themselves at risk does not mean I haven't discussed the point. The issue now is that you repeatedly claim to not to have said the things that people have read you saying, after people have indicated they found those views repugnant.
If you didn't articulate your actual views clearly, or wish to modify them, fine. But instead your approach is to claim that you didn't articulate those views that people are ascribing to you. Which might work when only one person is ascribing those views, but when several different people all got the same thing out of your posts, the issue is not others misunderstanding you, the issue is you apparently not understanding what you expressed, or the implications of what you expressed.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 03:57:33 AM
I'm not responsible for other people being incapable of reading the actual words I typed.
I reiterate the point: this might be a reasonable claim when one other person derives a meaning from what you typed. It is a far less reasonable claim when multiple people are all deriving the same meaning from what you typed.
In one instance where you claimed not to have said something, a quote was helpfully provided to prove that you really did say it.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 03:57:33 AM
My view remains that I am not in favour of Russian draft-dodgers conveniently avoiding the consequences of their own prior political acquiescence.
My view remains that you have not shown any evidence of "political acquiescence". You seem to think that anyone who has failed to already be jailed or to have otherwise appeared in your news feeds as anti-war ought to be taken to have accepted the war and thought it was okay. Which is illogical. It's the fallacy of the undistributed middle. It's fallacious to conclude that the only means of being unsupportive of the war is to have done something that would have got your attention before now.
Latest post from the US Embassy in Moscow, Russia:
"Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia
U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russia (September 27, 2022)
Event: On September 21, the Russian government began a mobilization of its citizens to the armed forces in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals'
U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service.
Commercial flight options are extremely limited at present and are often unavailable on short notice. Overland routes by car and bus are still open. If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible. The U.S. Embassy has severe limitations on its ability to assist U.S. citizens, and conditions, including transportation options, may suddenly become even more limited.
U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain. The Department of State provides information on commercial travel on the Information for U.S. Citizens in Russia – Travel Options Out of Russia page on travel.state.gov. This site also provides information on requirements for entering neighboring countries, procedures for travel on expired U.S. passports in some circumstances, and visa requirements for families with American and Russian citizen family members.
We remind U.S. citizens that the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are not guaranteed in Russia. Avoid all political or social protests and do not photograph security personnel at these events. Russian authorities have arrested U.S. citizens who have participated in demonstrations."
PD
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 04:53:33 AM
But this, on the other hand, is merely an assumption on your part about what you think I 'seem to think'. Don't form opinions about my thoughts unless you've determined what they actually are and the basis on which they are formed, is what I'd say to you.
I have specifically pressed you to explain the basis of your assertion. You have failed to provide any explanation as to how you have ascertained that the people now fleeing Russia were okay with the war previously. Even now, you point to opinion poll numbers that in your own terms have 25% of respondents not in favour of the war, and it doesn't seem to have even occurred to you that the people now fleeing might have been in the 25% rather than the 75%.
You just leapt from 75% of people in a survey saying something (and apparently not giving a moment's consideration as to whether people felt safe saying what they really thought, which is a whole separate issue) to a fallacious conclusion that people now fleeing Russia shared in that 75% opinion. Again: it is the fallacy of the undistributed middle.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 05:08:34 AM
Discounting only yourself, I'm aware of two people who think I said I knew the demographic makeup of those fleeing. But I never said such a thing. I merely asserted based on the rather obvious deduction that 80-year olds on zimmer frames don't need to be fleeing the draft.
I agree on your figures. You are insisting that 3 people all read you incorrectly, and that only you have interpreted your posts correctly.
Ironically, that is the kind of 75-25 per cent split that leads you to conclude in other circumstances that everyone shared the same opinion. But now you are determined to highlight the minority opinion rather than making sweeping claims about what all members of the forum thought.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 05:15:32 AM
I gave you long quotes and plenty of citations which you cannot possibly have had time to read (or watch) in detail and you therefore merely repeat your position without actually considering the substance presented at all.
The first citation I gave you shows very clearly that just 9% (rising to the Everest-like heights of 11%) were "definitely not in favour of the war". The rest were either all in favour of it or a bit 'meh' about it.
And once more, the best you can do is state "it doesn't seem to have occurred to you..."
When you learn the lesson that what things seem like to you doesn't necessarily correspond to reality, then we can have more productive conversations.
In the meantime, I'm done with you.
Oh grow up. Seriously. This is about logical premises. It doesn't matter whether the figure is 25% or 9%. It was you who highlighted the 75% result, not me, but if you want to shift the goalposts to a 91% figure it doesn't make any difference. Until more than 9% of the Russian population has left you still face the same logical problem (and even then it wouldn't be fully resolved).
Currently it seems that you don't even know what an undistributed middle is. It's not "50% of the population". It's the problem with going from "not all Russians supported the war" (whether the percentage not supporting the war is 25% or 9%) to "Russians fleeing at the moment supported the war".
It should be blindingly obvious that the group
most likely to be leaving Russia are the people who don't support the war. They are not independent variables. And please note, I am not claiming that everyone now leaving must have been against the war previously. But the ratio of people now leaving that were against the war would be far higher than in the general population. People wholeheartedly in favour of the war have less reason to leave.
What have you done to oust Putin, anyway? It's all very well putting the obligation on other people. How are you doing your part?
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 28, 2022, 04:35:31 AM
Latest post from the US Embassy in Moscow, Russia:
"Security Alert for U.S. Citizens in Russia
U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russia (September 27, 2022)
Event: On September 21, the Russian government began a mobilization of its citizens to the armed forces in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia may refuse to acknowledge dual nationals'
U.S. citizenship, deny their access to U.S. consular assistance, prevent their departure from Russia, and conscript dual nationals for military service.
Commercial flight options are extremely limited at present and are often unavailable on short notice. Overland routes by car and bus are still open. If you wish to depart Russia, you should make independent arrangements as soon as possible. The U.S. Embassy has severe limitations on its ability to assist U.S. citizens, and conditions, including transportation options, may suddenly become even more limited.
U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain. The Department of State provides information on commercial travel on the Information for U.S. Citizens in Russia – Travel Options Out of Russia page on travel.state.gov. This site also provides information on requirements for entering neighboring countries, procedures for travel on expired U.S. passports in some circumstances, and visa requirements for families with American and Russian citizen family members.
We remind U.S. citizens that the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression are not guaranteed in Russia. Avoid all political or social protests and do not photograph security personnel at these events. Russian authorities have arrested U.S. citizens who have participated in demonstrations."
PD
For an individual to have dual citizenship, there must be a protocol between the two nations. My understanding (quite likely outdated) was that Russia hadn't coordinated with the US on this. Perhaps by now they have, but Russian bureaucracy being itself, the process would doubtless be onerous to the applicant.
98,000 Russians fled to Kazakhstan amid Putin's mobilization announcement (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/98000-russians-fled-to-kazakhstan-amid-putins-mobilization-announcement)
We know they are wealthy.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 28, 2022, 06:56:16 AM
For an individual to have dual citizenship, there must be a protocol between the two nations. My understanding (quite likely outdated) was that Russia hadn't coordinated with the US on this. Perhaps by now they have, but Russian bureaucracy being itself, the process would doubtless be onerous to the applicant.
Karl,
I did find some info here: https://ru.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/st-petersburg/u-s-citizenship-services/dual-nationality/ and this: https://usimmigrationforms.com/getting-us-and-russian-dual-citizenship/
The US Immigration one was quite interesting! What is there about 1992?
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 28, 2022, 08:04:57 AM
Karl,
I did find some info here: https://ru.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/st-petersburg/u-s-citizenship-services/dual-nationality/ and this: https://usimmigrationforms.com/getting-us-and-russian-dual-citizenship/
The US Immigration one was quite interesting! What is there about 1992?
PD
Interesting, PD, thanks.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 28, 2022, 08:17:56 AM
Interesting, PD, thanks.
You're welcome!
By the way, I was at the same place as you re word game, but managed to figure it out. Let me know if you'll like a clue. ;)
PD
There's a pipeline that runs from Denmark to Poland which crosses the Nordstream pipeline almost exactly where the sabotage occurred.
I guess the message was received.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 09:11:19 AM
Not entirely sure that's true. For a long time, Australia didn't accept dual citizenship: if you became Australian, everything else had to be relinquished. Then they relented in the late 1990s. So I can be dual Aussie/British not because there's a British/Oz agreement to that effect, but merely because Oz said, dual is fine.
Hi AB,
I had earlier linked to two websites which talked about Russian/American dual citizenship which you might like to look at (the second one was US Immigration website). Here they are again: https://ru.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/st-petersburg/u-s-citizenship-services/dual-nationality/ and https://usimmigrationforms.com/getting-us-and-russian-dual-citizenship/
Best,
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 28, 2022, 08:39:58 AM
You're welcome!
By the way, I was at the same place as you re word game, but managed to figure it out. Let me know if you'll like a clue. ;)
PD
Cheers! got it at last!
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 28, 2022, 10:04:02 AM
Cheers! got it at last!
Probably the only composer that I've heard of so far playing that puzzle. :-[
Was tempting to add perhaps something like: "Just take a deep breath..." or maybe "I'm feeling light as a feather today"?? :-\ Probably bad clues! lol
PD
A number of Russian citizen correspondents have left. Natasha from the far East left a few days ago. Niki from St. Petersburg just left. He's in Istanbul. Natasha fled to Tbilisi.
Quote from: drogulus on September 28, 2022, 10:36:05 AM
A number of Russian citizen correspondents have left. Natasha from the far East left a few days ago. Niki from St. Petersburg just left. He's in Istanbul. Natasha fled to Tbilisi.
Would you please possibly add more information to your posts as I can't always follow you well. Like here, first and last names and who they have been writing for or who has uploaded or published their articles/comments or is it all via things like Facebook/Twitter? I'd like to read them and understand more about their background and what they are going through. Thanks.
PD
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 09:11:19 AM
Not entirely sure that's true. For a long time, Australia didn't accept dual citizenship: if you became Australian, everything else had to be relinquished. Then they relented in the late 1990s. So I can be dual Aussie/British not because there's a British/Oz agreement to that effect, but merely because Oz said, dual is fine.
Russian law is different.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 28, 2022, 10:40:07 AM
Would you please possibly add more information to your posts as I can't always follow you well. Like here, first and last names and who they have been writing for or who has uploaded or published their articles/comments or is it all via things like Facebook/Twitter? I'd like to read them and understand more about their background and what they are going through. Thanks.
PD
These are YouTubers I have followed since before the war. They are pretty well known as Russian vloggers go. They went.
https://www.youtube.com/v/VfDV9E79y_U
https://www.youtube.com/v/vQUXH-uLzdA
Mayhem at Russian Border as Thousands Flee Putin's Draft (https://www.thedailybeast.com/mayhem-at-russian-georgian-border-as-thousands-flee-vladimir-putins-draft?ref=home)
The first Russian mobilized soldier has surrendered due to non-battle fatigue.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdsHXCaWIB4Pf0q.jpg)
Quote from: Todd on September 28, 2022, 03:04:54 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdsHXCaWIB4Pf0q.jpg)
Constructive, as always.
Quote from: LKB on September 28, 2022, 03:26:57 PM
Constructive, as always.
Sikorski has built that reputation, yes.
Washington's Pointless War on Behalf of a Fake Nation (https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2022/09/27/washingtons-pointless-war-on-behalf-of-a-fake-nation/)
Quote from: David StockmanNor is Orbán the only one calling for an end to sanctions, with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotaki calling for a repeal of Russian sanctions as well. Other political leaders, such as Matteo Salvini, who leads the conservative League party and will be a major force in Italy's new government, says that Europe needs a "rethink" on Russian sanctions due to the harmful economic effects.
Oh yeah, and: German conservative leader accuses Ukrainian refugees of 'welfare tourism' (https://www.politico.eu/article/german-conservative-leader-accuses-ukrainian-refugees-of-welfare-tourism/)
Ukraine had really better be worth all this.
Quote from: Todd on September 28, 2022, 03:43:02 PM
Washington's Pointless War on Behalf of a Fake Nation (https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2022/09/27/washingtons-pointless-war-on-behalf-of-a-fake-nation/)
Oh yeah, and: German conservative leader accuses Ukrainian refugees of 'welfare tourism' (https://www.politico.eu/article/german-conservative-leader-accuses-ukrainian-refugees-of-welfare-tourism/)
Ukraine had really better be worth all this.
Your status as a Putin apologist and purveyor of decidedly un-American attitudes is more apparent than ever, grats!
Quote from: LKB on September 28, 2022, 03:51:20 PM
Your status as a Putin apologist and purveyor of decidedly un-American attitudes is more apparent than ever, grats!
I guess it makes sense that you liked HUAC.
Quote from: Todd on September 28, 2022, 03:43:02 PM
Washington's Pointless War on Behalf of a Fake Nation (https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2022/09/27/washingtons-pointless-war-on-behalf-of-a-fake-nation/)
Oh yeah, and: German conservative leader accuses Ukrainian refugees of 'welfare tourism' (https://www.politico.eu/article/german-conservative-leader-accuses-ukrainian-refugees-of-welfare-tourism/)
Ukraine had really better be worth all this.
The claim that Ukraine is a fake nation is straight out of the Russian playbook. Ukrainians feel rather differently about that. Which is the whole fucking point. As I discussed several weeks ago.
The existence of the Soviet Union as a federation, rather than a unitary state, gives a lie to the proposition that Ukraine lacks a separate identity. It's just that Russia prefers to rule the nations around it.
One could just as easily argue that Norway or Iceland is a fake nation. Only the Danes were less aggressive about keeping their kingdom intact.
Quote from: The Forty-Sixth President of the United States of America, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.If Russia invades - that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again - then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.
Quote from: Andrea Shalal, ReutersBut how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany's control?
Quote from: The Forty-Sixth President of the United States of America, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.We will, I promise you, we'll be able to do it.
From Foreign Policy:
Russia's Defeat Would Be America's Problem
Victory in Ukraine could easily mean hubris in Washington. (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/27/russia-defeat-ukraine-america-problem-hubris/)
The opening paragraphs cite Pericles and Burke, so it's a goodun.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 09:45:38 AM
I will read. I was just saying that GB/AU dual citizenship was the sole creation of AU. It didn't require a special protocol between the two countries. Just that AU needed to stop being a bit of a dick about it. Might well not apply to Russia/US; I wouldn't know, but will happily learn about from your links as I read them.
I already notice that "U.S. immigration law requires Americans to use U.S. passports when entering or leaving the United States", which I find very interesting because I have never been entirely sure which passport (UK or AU) to display, and when. It seems to be more a matter of whim where those two countries are concerned! I have recently been told that you leave on the passport of the country you're leaving from, and arrive on the passport of the country you're arriving at :) I wouldn't have a clue and tend to stick to one or the other, as the whims of the check-in people appear to dictate! I always carry both, just in case, but yes: it's a bit murky for us Aussie-Poms. Or, at least, for me :(
Got what you were saying. Pardon me, but by the way, what are "Aussie-Poms"? Hadn't heard that term before. And yes, in the case of dual-citizenship, I would imagine that it would be important to know all of the rules when traveling....hard though it be.
I'm still curious as to what happened (or changes in legislation??) in 1992 re Russia.
Quote from: drogulus on September 28, 2022, 01:22:53 PM
These are YouTubers I have followed since before the war. They are pretty well known as Russian vloggers go. They went.
Thanks. I don't often watch YouTubers (99.999999999% anyway)...trying hard to keep up with the news; there's a lot of it out there. :-\ And I don't "follow" anyone.
Best,
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on September 28, 2022, 04:52:29 PM
Thanks. I don't often watch YouTubers (99.999999999% anyway)...trying hard to keep up with the news; there's a lot of it out there. :-\ And I don't "follow" anyone.
Best,
PD
I don't subscribe to any YTers except Cap at Grim Reapers. I watch the Russians because I'm interested in what's going on there, and unlike with China I'm not limited to intermediaries. In the China case there's a bunch of people pushing the line that the country will collapse in 4 days, or 27 days, that kind of thing. That's not how it will happen. It's going to take years, maybe a decade to get to the "I knew it all along" stage.
Quote from: LKB on September 28, 2022, 03:51:20 PM
Your status as a Putin apologist and purveyor of decidedly un-American attitudes is more apparent than ever, grats!
Let's not invoke "un-American". Lotta folks here are not USA American, you're going to call them un-American, too?
Quote from: Herman on September 29, 2022, 12:19:51 AM
Let's not invoke "un-American". Lotta folks here are not USA American, you're going to call them un-American, too?
No, because in the English language "America" means the USA. When you are writing in a language where "America" means a whole continent, you can use the term with that meaning. Meanwhile in English it's The Americas, North America, Central America, South America.
Meanwhile, Todd is from the USA.
Finland is closing the Russian border next night in order to reduce Russian turism significantly. The border remains open for certain reasons such as relatives living in Finland, work, studies, humanitarian reasons and cargo.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on September 28, 2022, 06:56:16 AM
For an individual to have dual citizenship, there must be a protocol between the two nations. My understanding (quite likely outdated) was that Russia hadn't coordinated with the US on this. Perhaps by now they have, but Russian bureaucracy being itself, the process would doubtless be onerous to the applicant.
Dual US/Russian citizenship is a de facto situation, rather than an acknowledged protocol, on both sides. The U.S. will require you to foreswear allegiance to any foreign state, but won't force you to tear up your foreign passport. But if you are a Russian citizen that subsequently becomes a naturalized US citizen and you want to travel to Russia, you have two options. If you want to enter using a Russian passport you just present yourself at the border. If you want to enter using a US passport you have to get a visa in advance, which may involve visiting a Russian consulate in the U.S., or someone you are going to visit visiting a consulate in Russia. It is an onerous process. And whatever passport you use to enter must be used to leave. If you enter with a Russian passport you risk the passport not being honored when you try to leave. Now, with military conscriptions and the U.S. and Russia at a state of hostility bordering war, it seems more likely that something will go wrong.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on September 28, 2022, 07:32:57 PM
My apologies. Australians tend to call anyone from Britain a "pommie" or a "pom" for short. Because Brits apparently complain a lot, they are frequently called "whingeing poms".
So a pom=someone from Britain.
And Aussie is someone from Australia.
So me being an Aussie-Pom is just shorthand for saying "someone with dual British and Australian citizenship".
Though technically I'm probably more a Pommie-Aussie, as I was born in Britain before migrating to Australia.
But then I retired back to the UK, which just confuses the picture even more... ;)
Thanks. I was guessing that, but had never heard that term before.
PD
Annexation is to occur tomorrow:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63072113
Soon, we all may learn where the real huevos are located, Ukranians aside.
'Better than killing people': Russians flee into Mongolia (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220929-better-than-killing-people-russians-flee-into-mongolia)
More elite Russians exploiting their wealth.
Lately I have become very pessimistic. We are heading to WW III and we all may have very little time left. We may experience the last Christmas literally. Russia is destroying the whole World and has become the biggest terrorist state surpassing even the US and Israel. Russia shows zero intent to de-escalate, zero interest in even their own citizens let alone anyone else! All they care about is the glory of Russia being the country that caused the end off humanity.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 29, 2022, 04:48:22 AM
Lately I have become very pessimistic. We are heading to WW III and we all may have very little time left. We may experience the last Christmas literally. Russia is destroying the whole World and has become the biggest terrorist state surpassing even the US and Israel. Russia shows zero intent to de-escalate, zero interest in even their own citizens let alone anyone else! All they care about is the glory of Russia being the country that caused the end off humanity.
You could easily be right Poju, I think it needs but little, and we are on the brink of disaster.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 29, 2022, 04:48:22 AM
Lately I have become very pessimistic. We are heading to WW III and we all may have very little time left. We may experience the last Christmas literally. Russia is destroying the whole World and has become the biggest terrorist state surpassing even the US and Israel. Russia shows zero intent to de-escalate, zero interest in even their own citizens let alone anyone else! All they care about is the glory of Russia being the country that caused the end off humanity.
I don't see Russia escalating beyond its capacity, though. They couldn't manage to defeat Ukraine, a smaller country, when they seem to have optimistically believed they were going to roll into Kyiv within a very short space of time. Surely even Putin and his strongest allies can perceive the problems they would face engaging in direct conflict with countries that are better resources than Ukraine.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 29, 2022, 04:48:22 AM
Lately I have become very pessimistic. We are heading to WW III and we all may have very little time left. We may experience the last Christmas literally. Russia is destroying the whole World and has become the biggest terrorist state surpassing even the US and Israel. Russia shows zero intent to de-escalate, zero interest in even their own citizens let alone anyone else! All they care about is the glory of Russia being the country that caused the end off humanity.
Quote from: Harry on September 29, 2022, 04:55:16 AM
You could easily be right Poju, I think it needs but little, and we are on the brink of disaster.
Keep calm, guys. The relatives and offsprings of Russian officials and oligarchs live, study, work and go shopping in New York, London or Paris, not in Novosibirsk, Kazan or Vladivostok.
Quote from: Madiel on September 29, 2022, 05:25:36 AM
I don't see Russia escalating beyond its capacity, though. They couldn't manage to defeat Ukraine, a smaller country, when they seem to have optimistically believed they were going to roll into Kyiv within a very short space of time. Surely even Putin and his strongest allies can perceive the problems they would face engaging in direct conflict with countries that are better resources than Ukraine.
This, too.
Quote from: LKB on September 29, 2022, 04:11:22 AM
Annexation is to occur tomorrow:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63072113
Soon, we all may learn where the real huevos are located, Ukranians aside.
Return to the Sudetenland.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 07:02:01 AM
Keep calm, guys. The relatives and offsprings of Russian officials and oligarchs live, study, work and go shopping in New York, London or Paris, not in Novosibirsk, Kazan or Vladivostok.
The very very rich have been building armageddon shelters for some time.
There seems to be the illusion that there's a way of starting anew with only the fortunate after a worldwide disaster.
On the other hand, a Ceausescu picture of Putin under a very long table would perhaps be better.
Quote from: Herman on September 29, 2022, 07:36:06 AM
a Ceausescu picture of Putin under a very long table would perhaps be better.
I don't get the idea, could you please explain?
Fourth leak found on Nord Stream pipelines, Swedish coastguard says (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fourth-leak-found-nord-stream-pipelines-swedish-coast-guard-says-2022-09-29/)
For each one of us, especially past a certain age, death is a possibility even without WWIII: heart failure, stroke, car accident, home accident --- there's a whole lot of occurences which might bring it and whose probability in the next 24 hours or the next week is much higher than a Russian nuke killing us, yet none of us worry too much, if at all, about them. Let's just keep on living and enjoying our lives, they are short anyway and will inevitably come to an end, Putin or no Putin.
... unless, of course, you have discovered that "the blood is the life" ..... and live in a remote castle in the Borgo Pass . . . and feast on Romanian peasant girls . . .
Quote from: Scion7 on September 29, 2022, 08:14:00 AM
... unless, of course, you have discovered that "the blood is the life" ..... and live in a remote castle in the Borgo Pass . . . and feast on Romanian peasant girls . . .
Too much palinka today for you, maybe? :P
Quote from: Madiel on September 29, 2022, 05:25:36 AM
I don't see Russia escalating beyond its capacity, though.
Well, Russia seems to be capable and willing to cause serious damage to European infrastructure. Even if they don't escalate any further the situation is really really bad.
Quote from: Madiel on September 29, 2022, 05:25:36 AMThey couldn't manage to defeat Ukraine, a smaller country, when they seem to have optimistically believed they were going to roll into Kyiv within a very short space of time.
Yes, but they have cause unspeakable damage to Ukraina forcing millions of Ukrainian to flees their own country not to mention the hidious war crimes. That's just Ukraine. In Europe they have cause inflation, energy crises and possibly increased popularity of fascist far right groups in politics which will be very harmful. War itself is horrible, whether you win it or not.
Quote from: Madiel on September 29, 2022, 05:25:36 AMSurely even Putin and his strongest allies can perceive the problems they would face engaging in direct conflict with countries that are better resources than Ukraine.
It doesn't look like they do...
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 07:02:01 AM
Keep calm, guys. The relatives and offsprings of Russian officials and oligarchs live, study, work and go shopping in New York, London or Paris, not in Novosibirsk, Kazan or Vladivostok.
I don't live in New York, London or Paris. :-X
a Ceausescu picture of Putin under a very long table would perhaps be better.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 07:45:09 AM
I don't get the idea, could you please explain?
Ceausescu, the general secretary of the Romanian Communist Party from 1965 to 1989, the de facto leader of the country, was shot on Christmas Day 1989 and, as things go, the picture of him dead, on the pavement, was shown on tv, to assure the Romanian people the Ceausescu era was over.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 08:07:00 AM
For each one of us, especially past a certain age, death is a possibility even without WWIII
And some of us have young children, who deserve a life ahead.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 08:07:00 AM
For each one of us, especially past a certain age, death is a possibility even without WWIII: heart failure, stroke, car accident, home accident --- there's a whole lot of occurences which might bring it and whose probability in the next 24 hours or the next week is much higher than a Russian nuke killing us, yet none of us worry too much, if at all, about them. Let's just keep on living and enjoying our lives, they are short anyway and will inevitably come to an end, Putin or no Putin.
Yes, but heart failure only kills myself, not billions caused by nuclear holocaust.
The end is nigh.
Expanding NATO was a dumb idea, after all.
Oh well.
Germany faces a looming threat of deindustrialisation (https://www.economist.com/business/2022/09/11/germany-faces-a-looming-threat-of-deindustrialisation)
Quote from: The EconomistAlmost 80 years later Vladimir Putin might achieve some of what Morgenthau, whose parents were both born in Germany, had in mind. By weaponising the natural gas on which Germany's mighty industrial base relies, the Russian president is weakening the world's fourth-biggest economy and its third-biggest exporter of goods.
Published before the four boom-booms, but even more pertinent now. The reference to Morgenthau is over the top, but emphasizing Germany's reliance on Russian energy for industrial production is not. A contraction of the largest economy in Europe complicates the war further. Alternative supplies will take a long time to come online. In the meantime, recession can lead to unrest and the election of more politicians not to the liking of the United States and its vassals.
Also, the best-case scenario for the pipeline sabotage is that the Russians did it. If not, then the sabotage is an act of war against Russia by an actor capable of undertaking such an operation. Not many actors can do that. Second best case is that it was a non-NATO regional power. The fact that the sabotage took place in international waters, just outside the territorial waters of Denmark, indicate that whoever is responsible knew precisely what they were doing.
Putin is threatening to issue more threats.
Other countries monitor Russian nukes closely. We know what "threat threatening" is. Nothing changes on the ground. Maybe something moves closer to a threat threatened country like, say, Finland. A truck with a nuke goes towards a border. The truck doesn't do anything else. All the signs of enhanced readiness are absent, and to be clear Russia knows we know this. The weak of heart and mind are not reassured by explanation, and Russia knows this, too.
Quote from: Herman on September 29, 2022, 08:21:38 AM
Ceausescu, the general secretary of the Romanian Communist Party from 1965 to 1989, the de facto leader of the country, was shot on Christmas Day 1989 and, as things go, the picture of him dead, on the pavement, was shown on tv, to assure the Romanian people the Ceausescu era was over.
You do realize that, as a Romanian, I knew all that since long before you even heard about it, don't you?
My question was about this formulation of yours: "a Ceausescu picture of Putin under a very long table" which didn't make any sense.
You might have wanted to write "a Ceausescu-like picture of Putin laying on a very long table" --- and I hope you'll agree that laying on is very different than being under,.
Otherwise, agreed, just don't hold your breath.
Quote from: Herman on September 29, 2022, 07:36:06 AM
The very very rich have been building armageddon shelters for some time.
Rod Serling wrote a brilliant and chilling
Twilight Zone episode on this theme.
Quote from: Todd on September 29, 2022, 08:34:05 AMAlso, the best-case scenario for the pipeline sabotage is that the Russians did it. If not, then the sabotage is an act of war against Russia by an actor capable of undertaking such an operation. Not many actors can do that. Second best case is that it was a non-NATO regional power. The fact that the sabotage took place in international waters, just outside the territorial waters of Denmark, indicate that whoever is responsible knew precisely what they were doing.
The question is who would gain? Russia doesn't gain. They don't need to blow up the pipeline, all they need to do is stop pumping gas into it. If the pipeline is intact they can always hold out the option, "if you're nice to us we'll send gas again."
I'd say it benefits Ukraine, since now there is no benefit to placating Russia, since Russia can't send gas even if they want to.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on September 29, 2022, 09:14:59 AM
The question is who would gain? Russia doesn't gain. They don't need to blow up the pipeline, all they need to do is stop pumping gas into it. If the pipeline is intact they can always hold out the option, "if you're nice to us we'll send gas again."
I'd say it benefits Ukraine, since now there is no benefit to placating Russia, since Russia can't send gas even if they want to.
My understanding is that the pipelines were not delivering gas to Europe when they were sabotaged. Russia stopped delivering natural gas via Nordstream 1 last month, and Nordstream 2 was never brought online. Both held pressurized gas, though.
Ukraine would potentially benefit, but I do not know what their submarine capabilities are, and I doubt they would do so without buy-in from the US. Russia could gain by prolonging the delay in the delivery of gas, causing more economic dislocations in Europe, with the attendant political and economic instability. The US could benefit in the form of increased energy sales to Europe and a deterioration of the Russian economy. The EU has vowed to get to the bottom of this. Maybe they will.
Der Spiegel reported that last month the CIA informed the German government of the possibility of sabotage.
Quote from: Todd on September 29, 2022, 09:24:30 AM
My understanding is that the pipelines were not delivering gas to Europe when they were sabotaged. Russia stopped delivering natural gas via Nordstream 1 last month, and Nordstream 2 was never brought online. Both held pressurized gas, though.
Ukraine would potentially benefit, but I do not know what their submarine capabilities are, and I doubt they would do so without buy-in from the US. Russia could gain by prolonging the delay in the delivery of gas, causing more economic dislocations in Europe, with the attendant political and economic instability. The US could benefit in the form of increased energy sales to Europe and a deterioration of the Russian economy. The EU has vowed to get to the bottom of this. Maybe they will.
Der Spiegel reported that last month the CIA informed the German government of the possibility of sabotage.
They can prolong the delay as long as they want by not putting gas in.
I don't know if a submarine would be required. A surface vessel could conceivably drop a mine that detonates by time delay.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on September 29, 2022, 10:06:42 AMThey can prolong the delay as long as they want by not putting gas in.
There was obviously gas in the unused pipelines, hence the images one can see online. I don't know pipeline operations, and what the repair timelines may be as a result. Or what the claimed repair timelines may be as a result. Repairs may take days, weeks, months, or maybe they cannot be completed until after winter is over.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on September 29, 2022, 10:06:42 AMI don't know if a submarine would be required.
I used submarine in its most generic sense here, not meaning that a military submarine would be required. My understanding is that the waters around the pipelines are fairly shallow and would make for easy military submarine detection. I am unfamiliar with all the various sabotage options, their effectiveness, and the likelihood of detection when deploying mines from surface ships when compared to small, unmanned submersible to plant explosives, and so forth. Maybe it's as simple as a few guys in small boats heading to a specific location and using easy to obtain and operate time delay mines.
The number of parties who could and would engage in sabotage is limited, and at this point no one knows who did it. Maybe it is Ukraine. Since I will not be shivering this winter as a result, I don't care too much, as long as it cannot be pinned on the US or another NATO country.
My general observation is that Russia is using the pipeline for blackmail, and it is to their advantage if Putin can say to the EU, "recognize our annexation of eastern Ukraine and we'll have the sweet gas flowing to you by this time tomorrow." Now they can't do that.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on September 29, 2022, 10:33:43 AM
My general observation is that Russia is using the pipeline for blackmail, and it is to their advantage if Putin can say to the EU, "recognize our annexation of eastern Ukraine and we'll have the sweet gas flowing to you by this time tomorrow." Now they can't do that.
They will be able to do so after Nordstream 1 is operational again. In the meantime, they get extended delays, plus the ability to blame sabotage on someone else, irrespective of who did it. Now it is a question of who can absorb more economic pain.
The fact that the pipelines are owned by multiple companies from multiple countries, including Germany (~30% ownership), Holland, and France, means that whoever blew up the pipelines caused harm to western interests as well.
Quote from: Todd on September 29, 2022, 10:25:48 AM
The number of parties who could and would engage in sabotage is limited, and at this point no one knows who did it. Maybe it is Ukraine. Since I will not be shivering this winter as a result, I don't care too much,
I really wonder greatly why do you even bother to still keep posting in this thread, since of your own admittance absolutely nothing that occurs related to this war will affect you, short of a Russian nuclear missile hitting Portland.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 10:45:40 AM
Really, one womders why do you even bother to post in this thread, since of your own admittance absolutely nothing that occurs related to this war will affect you, short of a nuclear missile hitting Portland.
I thought you put me on your Ignore list.
Quote from: Todd on September 29, 2022, 10:46:38 AM
I thought you put me on your Ignore list.
Incorrect.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 10:47:42 AM
Incorrect.
So it was an empty public display of outrage. Makes sense.
There won't be a nuclear exchange.
The American senator Graham had it right - if Putin tried to do this (he won't), he'd be eliminated.
Being one who has assembled and targeted nuclear missiles in the American Navy, I have had access to information you have not.
The commanders (Russian Marshals) and the senior COC of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces are very professional.
And they, and the oligarchs that control the government, all know any use of nuclear weapons guarantees a d response in kind - they don't want their personal homes, families, etc., exterminated within 15 minutes of a general nuclear exchange, trust me.
So relax about this issue - even a disturbed megalomaniac like Putin cannot make this happen.
Quote from: Todd on September 29, 2022, 10:50:45 AM
So it was an empty public display of outrage.
I did put you on my Ignore list right away. The next day I undid the move.
I still really wonder greatly why do you even bother to still keep posting in this thread, since of your own admittance absolutely nothing that occurs related to this war will affect you, short of a Russian nuclear missile hitting Portland.
Quote from: Scion7 on September 29, 2022, 10:58:14 AM
The commanders (Russian Marshals) and the senior COC of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces are very professional.
And they, and the oligarchs that control the government, all know any use of nuclear weapons guarantees a d response in kind - they don't want their personal homes, families, etc., exterminated within 15 minutes of a general nuclear exchange, trust me.
So relax about this issue - even a disturbed megalomaniac like Putin cannot make this happen.
My point exactly.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 08:46:48 AM
You do realize that, as a Romanian, I knew all that since long before you even heard about it, don't you?
"long before"? This was international news, and Romanians may have seen that image thirty minutes before it went around the world, but that's about it.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 11:00:56 AMI still really wonder greatly why do you even bother to still keep posting in this thread, since of your own admittance absolutely nothing that occurs related to this war will affect you, short of a Russian nuclear missile hitting Portland.
It affects my portfolio on a short-term basis. It also results in a huge amount of (usually entertaining) propaganda being, well, propagated by the corporate press and those who regurgitate it.
Quote from: Todd on September 29, 2022, 12:05:02 PM
It affects my portfolio on a short-term basis. It also results in a huge amount of (usually entertaining) propaganda being, well, propagated by the corporate press and those who regurgitate it.
Got it. It's all entertainment for you, mixed with a passable financial annoyance.
Quote from: Florestan on September 29, 2022, 12:11:06 PM
Got it. It's all entertainment for you, mixed with a passable financial annoyance.
Is it existential for you, or something?
What are you going to
do about it?
The Ukes are closing the trap around Lyman.
(https://i.imgur.com/SoM6x7S.png)
Quote from: Todd on September 29, 2022, 12:22:32 PM
Is it existential for you, or something?
It has the potential to become so if Russians launch nukes in Ukraine, a neghboring country.
Meanwhile, I am affected (as are hundreds of millions of people across Europe) by the high or soaring prices of oil, gas and power and by the prospect of a cold and dark winter because of power and heating cutoffs.
And of course, the saddest thing is the plight of the ukrainian people, killed and maimed by Russians, forced to flee their country or live under Russian occupation.
So, you, see, I have no reason to consider it entertaining or to declare I don't care too much about it.
QuoteWhat are you going to do about it?
I can do nothing to stop the war, if that's what you ask.
Okay Todd, seriously, Back off. I know I havent always seen eye to eye with Florestan myself but youre going way over the line and just being needlessly provocative.
Quote from: Ganondorf on September 30, 2022, 05:54:28 AM
Okay Todd, seriously, Back off. I know I havent always seen eye to eye with Florestan myself but youre going way over the line and just being needlessly provocative.
Merely exercising his chief talent.
Quote from: LKB on September 30, 2022, 06:20:33 AM
Merely exercising his chief talent.
(* chortle *)And:
Putin Compounds His Bad Decisions (https://www.thebulwark.com/putin-compounds-his-bad-decisions/)
From WaPo: Alexei Navalny: This is what a post-Putin Russia should look like (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/30/alexei-navalny-parliamentary-republic-russia-ukraine/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert)
Quote from: Alexei NavalnyThe future model for Russia is not "strong power" and a "firm hand," but harmony, agreement and consideration of the interests of the whole society. Russia needs a parliamentary republic. That is the only way to stop the endless cycle of imperial authoritarianism.
In short, regime change is the answer.
What Russian annexation means for Ukraine's regions (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63086767)
Ukraine announces fast-track NATO membership bid, rules out Putin talks (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-applying-nato-membership-2022-09-30/)
A bustling Friday! So much propaganda, so little time!!
Quote from: Ganondorf on September 30, 2022, 05:54:28 AM
Okay Todd, seriously, Back off. I know I havent always seen eye to eye with Florestan myself but youre going way over the line and just being needlessly provocative.
Todd is a pathological American exceptionalist who thinks NATO without the US is "nothing" and that Finland and Sweden joining NATO is a catastrophe. I have had him on ignore for some time now.
Quote from: 71 dB on September 30, 2022, 07:51:12 AM
Todd is a pathological American exceptionalist who thinks NATO without the US is "nothing" and that Finland and Sweden joining NATO is a catastrophe. I have had him on ignore for some time now.
Actually he is not an American exceptionalist. He has often expressed the view that the U.S. domination of the world is inevitably receding. It seems to me that his world view is defined by cynicism.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on September 30, 2022, 08:01:54 AMActually he is not an American exceptionalist. He has often expressed the view that the U.S. domination of the world is inevitably receding. It seems to me that his world view is defined by cynicism.
The first two sentences are spot on, while the last is half complete.
Quote from: Todd on September 30, 2022, 08:06:37 AM
The first two sentences are spot on, while the last is half complete.
... cynicism and self interest?
Quote from: Spotted Horses on September 30, 2022, 08:08:23 AM
... cynicism and self interest?
Cynicism and Realism, in the international relations conception of that word. It is more comprehensive than just self-interest.
Yampil is deannexed. There's a single road out of Lyman.
Lyman is well defended from frontal assault by high quality troops by Russian standards. They should leave yesterday. I'm baffled by this. What purpose is served by leaving them in an impossible situation? These troops are badly needed at the next line of defense.
From the Beeb: US suggests Russia could be behind Nord Stream gas leaks (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63084613)
Now we know who did it.
Quote from: drogulus on September 30, 2022, 08:29:53 AM
Yampil is deannexed. There's a single road out of Lyman.
Lyman is well defended from frontal assault by high quality troops by Russian standards. They should leave yesterday. I'm baffled by this. What purpose is served by leaving them in an impossible situation? These troops are badly needed at the next line of defense.
Considering the reports of Putin personally contacting and directing unit commanders, this might be an example of his bias against intelligent choices.
Nord Stream leaks will not delay Oct. 1 Baltic Pipe start-up (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-leaks-will-not-delay-oct-1-baltic-pipe-start-up-2022-09-29/)
Well, after Putin's rambling annexation speech I might have to change the title of this thread to:
Vladimir Putin's war against the West
Putin's annexation speech: more angry taxi driver than head of state (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/30/putin-annexation-speech-more-angry-taxi-driver-than-head-of-state-ukraine)
"We" allow for gender reassignment surgery! I guess that makes invading your sovereign neighbour and sabotaging international energy infrastructure quite all right...
Quote from: Que on September 30, 2022, 11:35:40 PM
Well, after Putin's rambling annexation speech I might have to change the title of this thread to:
Vladimir Putin's war against the West
Putin's annexation speech: more angry taxi driver than head of state (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/30/putin-annexation-speech-more-angry-taxi-driver-than-head-of-state-ukraine)
"We" allow for gender reassignment surgery! I guess that makes invading your sovereign neighbour and sabotaging international energy infrastructure quite all right...
Putin is still considered by the majority of the so- called " experts " to be rational. Since rational people are rarely suicidal, it's a fair bet that the nuclear bluster is still what it was months ago: a tool intended to force Ukraine and the West to hesitate, and possibly fragment.
I still believe it more likely for a Russian chemical or biological attack, particularly since the interested parties are so focused on nuclear scenarios. Make your opponent prepare for your right hand, then strike with your left.
We'll know soon enough.
Quote from: LKB on October 01, 2022, 12:30:15 AM
Putin is still considered by the majority of the so- called " experts " to be rational. Since rational people are rarely suicidal, it's a fair bet that the nuclear bluster is still what it was months ago: a tool intended to force Ukraine and the West to hesitate, and possibly fragment.
I still believe it more likely for a Russian chemical or biological attack, particularly since the interested parties are so focused on nuclear scenarios. Make your opponent prepare for your right hand, then strike with your left.
We'll know soon enough.
The trend is clear: in the face of defeat, Putin keeps escalating...
If he would sabotage the Baltic Pipeline next, that would be an act of war possibly triggering an armed stand off in the Balticum.
Putin is as rational as any conspiracy theorist with an overinflated ego, like the many that are roaming the internet these days. Not exactly certifiable but I wouldn't call them sane of mind either.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 01, 2022, 12:52:00 AM
Given a choice between the indecent thing and possible nuclear armageddon, I think it's time to be considering the indecent thing.
How does this align with the choices you imposed on prospective Russian conscripts?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd8TlFIXgAMELkd?format=jpg&name=small)
Interesting developments. Ukrainian forces are encircling Lyman (3.000 - 5.000 Russian soldiers). They are trying to move in northern direction to connect with the bridgehead in Kupyansk, which would open up the railway on the eastern bank of the Oskil river. And they are attacking Kreminna, which would enable them to cut off Russian connections to Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lysyschank. The Russian front in the northeast is crumbling...
Just in time for winter... during which thousands of Putin's best elite troops will be cut off and trapped in Kherson city.
Quote from: Que on October 01, 2022, 12:41:08 AM
Putin is as rational as any conspiracy theorist with an overinflated ego, like the many that are roaming the internet these days. Not exactly certifiable but I wouldn't call them sane of mind either.
+ 1.
Quote from: Que on October 01, 2022, 12:41:08 AMIf he would sabotage the Baltic Pipeline next, that would be an act of war possibly triggering an armed stand off in the Balticum.
We've already seen the short-term result of sabotaging pipelines. Were the new Baltic pipeline to be sabotaged, one would first need to be able to prove whodunnit.* The same would be true were an LNG carrier to go down as winter weather makes the northern seas choppy. One might wonder if the Yelets–Kremenchuk–Kryvyi Rih pipeline might experience more maintenance issues.
* Time magazine already published the truth: Russia Blows Up Gas Pipelines, Declaring an All-Out Energy War It May Already Have Lost (https://time.com/6218125/russia-gas-pipelines-energy-war/)
Quote from: Que on October 01, 2022, 12:41:08 AMPutin is as rational as any conspiracy theorist with an overinflated ego, like the many that are roaming the internet these days. Not exactly certifiable but I wouldn't call them sane of mind either.
One should always question the veracity of internet psychological analysis.
One might also question the propriety of the most bellicose suggestions raised during intense bouts of keyboard warfare.
The most fascinating thing about all of Todd's pronouncements about the lack of knowledge on the internet is how they never, ever apply to any of his own posts.
The emotional and bellicose responses to the war, in some cases by people thousands of miles away, remind me of this delightful historical headline from The Onion:
(https://www.thebozho.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/OurDumb-War.jpg)
It's also quite striking that IRL, pretty much no one I speak with expresses the appetite for destruction I encounter online. I recognize this is anecdotal, and pro-war folks online may very well associate with particularly bloodthirsty people, and that perhaps I associate only with peaceniks.
If anyone demonstrated bloodthirst and made bellicose suggestions, it was Vladimir Putin in his recent speech. And on many occasions before. It is he who is driving his own soldiers into an early grave. And he isn't behind a keyboard but at the end of a very long table. I don't think anyone on the internet comes even close.
Quote from: Que on October 01, 2022, 06:14:43 AMIf anyone demonstrated bloodthirst and made bellicose suggestions, it was Vladimir Putin in his recent speech. And on many occasions before. It is he who is driving his own soldiers into an early grave. And he isn't behind a keyboard but at the end of a very long table. I don't think anyone on the internet comes even close.
Putin is a warmonger IRL. This forum is populated by multiple online warmongers. Many other websites are as well. One needn't be head of state to be a warmonger.
Quote from: Todd on October 01, 2022, 06:20:29 AM
Putin is a warmonger IRL. This forum is populated by multiple online warmongers. Many other websites are as well. One needn't be head of state to be a warmonger.
Indeed. But anyone, or any country for that matter, that is supporting Ukraine in its decision to exercise its right to defend itself is not warmongering. Abandoning Ukraine and throw it to the wolves in the name of avoiding war, would create a structural threat to the sovereignty of other European nations and peace in Europe. It would also (further) undermine the rule of international law. Things you do not care about, I know.
Quote from: Que on October 01, 2022, 06:14:43 AM
If anyone demonstrated bloodthirst and made bellicose suggestions, it was Vladimir Putin in his recent speech. And on many occasions before. It is he who is driving his own soldiers into an early grave. And he isn't behind a keyboard but at the end of a very long table. I don't think anyone on the internet comes even close.
Quote from: Que on October 01, 2022, 06:30:23 AM
anyone, or any country for that matter, that is supporting Ukraine in its decision to exercise its right to defend itself is not warmongering. Abondening Ukraine and throw it to the wolves in the name of avoiding war, would create a structural threat to the sovereignty of other European nations and peace in Europe. It would also (further) undermine the rule of international law.
Amen!
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 01, 2022, 06:38:09 AM
a surgical takeout of Putin; or for a revolution of those discontented at conscription;
There is a very low probability for both.
Imo, the only hope is now that the Russian generals responsible for effectively pushing the nuclear button are more rational and responsible than their commander-in-chief.
Quote from: Que on October 01, 2022, 06:30:23 AMAbondening Ukraine and throw it to the wolves in the name of avoiding war, would create a structural threat to the sovereignty of other European nations and peace in Europe. It would also (further) undermine the rule of international law.
These are dubious assertions, to say the least.
The easier one here is the assertion regarding international law. The US is one of the most egregious violators of international law. Gitmo is still open, for instance. It has been operational for twenty years now. No one will ever be held to account. The US illegally engages in actions in multiple countries around the world. For instance, the US literally destroyed Raqqa in Syria and murdered 1600+ civilians in the process. No one will ever be held to account. The US, and its allies, destroyed Libya in violation of international law, and the US acted in violation of the much more important War Powers Resolution. No one will ever be held to account. The US has engaged in a decades long drone war in a region from West Africa into Pakistan, killing thousands of people, including dozens or hundreds of children. No one will ever be held to account. The US invaded Iraq, resulting in the death of hundreds of thousands of civilians. No one will ever be held to account, aside from some cash payouts. Others western countries have engaged in military actions around the world in actions that either blatantly violate international law, or operate in a gray area, such as the French throughout Africa until only earlier this year. Countries all over the world engage in all manner of unsavory actions against domestic populations, minority groups, and regional rivals, and most get pretty much no attention. No one will ever be held to account, some African leaders aside. International law is a Western convenience and fiction only as good as enforcement, which is selective, chauvinist, and mostly racist. Even if it were not, it will matter less and less in the coming decades as the West continues to decline in relative terms. And it is declining in relative terms. The incontrovertible evidence, in terms of economic measures and military power, is there for everyone to access.
It is unclear if Russia's actions will, in fact, threaten the sovereignty of other European countries, in a structural or any other way. Belief in this requires doublethink, where one simultaneously believes that Russia is weak and incompetent and its military is being defeated, yet somehow it will still have the power to threaten the sovereignty of other countries. Both conditions cannot exist at the same time. No other power threatens the sovereignty of other European countries, at least that I am aware of. The solution here is pretty obvious: European countries need to effectively defend Europe on their own. Europe has the resources to do so sans the US.
In the meantime, a negotiated settlement with Russia should be pursued.
It is worth pointing out that, based on polling data, the largest subset of the US population currently expects that outcome, and that support for the war is declining slowly. After the midterms, it may no longer be as important as it has been in the months leading up to the voting.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 01, 2022, 07:00:15 AM
I don't think the likes of Mossad or the CIA are going to be advertising their intentions any time soon, either, so I'm not sure any of us have the information needed to compute that sort of probability in any case.
Well, for the sake of discussion only, I think the Mossad is more capable to do it than the CIA, if only because they are certainly less scrupulous. And if they really did it, I'd pray for the members of the team every morning and evening of my remaining life. ;)
QuoteWell, that would amount to regime change by another name, too: one does not simply refuse to do Putin's bidding and get away with it!
There is a precedent, albeit on a much smaller scale: von Choltitz disobeying Hitler's order to destroy Paris.
From WaPo: Russia's annexation puts world 'two or three steps away' from nuclear war (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/europe-putin-nuclear-threats/)
Ukraine had really better be worth it.
I don't see why anyone supporting European defense should resist the warmonger label. We know it only takes one party to start a war and turn the defenders into warmongers. Putin has helped us to see (not me, I think) the falsity of the position that moral qualms about war can make it true that you're not in one. I didn't think the lesson was needed.
Now Putin is trying to burn the negotiation bridge at the rhetorical level. I think this is domestic politics. Negotiation won't come until the outline for an armistice comes into view. That's up to the Ukrainians, who will decide how much recovered territory to accept as their minimum.
Quote from: drogulus on October 01, 2022, 07:38:47 AM
I don't see why anyone supporting European defense should resist the warmonger label. We know it only takes one party to start a war and turn the defenders into warmongers. Putin has helped us to see (not me, I think) the falsity of the position that moral qualms about war can make it true that you're not in one. I didn't think the lesson was needed.
Now Putin is trying to burn the negotiation bridge at the rhetorical level. I think this is domestic politics. Negotiation won't come until the outline for an armistice comes into view. That's up to the Ukrainians, who will decide how much recovered territory to accept as their minimum.
Russian military ineptitude and Putin's penchant for bad decisions have been a gift, though it would have been irresponsibly risky to have counted on it. Where happily, counting on Toddy One-Note carries no risk.
Russia is the only one of the former European great powers who has not yet come to terms with its inevitable and well-deserved decline and has never expressed the slightest regret, let alone apology, for their aggressive and criminal past. Not only that, but she persists in pursuing exactly the same aggressive and criminal policies. That some people, erudite scholars among them, can still maintain she has legitimate grievances against, and legitimate interests in, precisely those nations which try hard to escape the Russian sphere of influence is mind-boggling. It''s exactly like saying king Leopold II of Belgium had legitimate interests in Congo and legitimate grievances against any attempt by the native Congolese, or the international community, to curb his bloody tyranny.
Quote from: Todd on October 01, 2022, 07:37:08 AM
From WaPo: Russia's annexation puts world 'two or three steps away' from nuclear war (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/europe-putin-nuclear-threats/)
Ukraine had really better be worth it.
Europe is worth it.
Quote from: Florestan on October 01, 2022, 08:28:22 AMIt''s exactly like saying king Leopold II of Belgium had legitimate interests in Congo and legitimate grievances against any attempt by the native Congolese, or the international community, to curb his bloody tyranny.
This is even worse than the endless analogies to Nazis.
Quote from: LKB on October 01, 2022, 08:28:46 AM
Europe is worth it.
First, no it's not. Second, Europe is not at risk.
I've said it numerous times before and I say it again: Putin / Russia complaining against some of their former satellites joining NATO is exactly like an inveterate rapist complaining against some of his former victims being put under 24/7 police protection.
Quote from: Florestan on October 01, 2022, 08:41:11 AM
I've said it numerous times before and I say it again: Putin / Russia complaining against some of their former satellites joining NATO is exactly like an inveterate rapist complaining against some of his former victims being put under 24/7 police protection.
And it is as inaccurate and irrelevant as every other time you have posted it.
There is a Romanian saying: "A thief cries 'Catch the thieves!'". That's Putin in a nutshell.
I should very much like to live in a world where old sayings meant something.
Pro-Russian sources have confirmed that Russian troops have left Lyman. Ukes have raised their flag at the outskirts of the town.
Quote from: drogulus on October 01, 2022, 09:10:28 AM
Pro-Russian sources have confirmed that Russian troops have left Lyman. Ukes have raised their flag at the outskirts of the town.
Yeah, but, but ... the residents of Lyman are "Russian citizens forever." Trump has a magic declassification wand, and Putin, a magic Russian citizenship wand.
I think we can get a good idea about the mobilization from a conversation between a soldier and his wife, who lives in a village not far from Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/v/ZWxs4qTGklE
Early in the war and up until quite recently Russian wives, mothers and girlfriends didn't know much about anything and talked about the news on TV. Now I hear this woman giving precise information that completely confirms what outsiders say. The war has come home.
Quote from: LKB on October 01, 2022, 08:28:46 AM
Europe is worth it.
Anyway, the Peanut Gallery doesn't get to re-brand defending an ally's sovereignty as "warmongering." that's bullshitmongering.
Quote from: drogulus on October 01, 2022, 07:38:47 AM
Now Putin is trying to burn the negotiation bridge at the rhetorical level. I think this is domestic politics. Negotiation won't come until the outline for an armistice comes into view. That's up to the Ukrainians, who will decide how much recovered territory to accept as their minimum.
I suspect the Ukrainian decision about how much recovered territory is the minimum they will accept has already been made, and the answer is as much as the US and others are willing to underwrite.
Russia vetoes U.N. resolution on proclaimed annexations, China abstains (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-act-un-friday-russias-proclaimed-annexations-ukraine-blinken-2022-09-30/)
Interestingly, Reuters does not include India's abstention in the headline. I can understand not including Brazil's abstention in the headline.
Perhaps the next UN action will achieve something concrete and valuable.
Quote from: drogulus on October 01, 2022, 10:50:54 AM
I think we can get a good idea about the mobilization from a conversation between a soldier and his wife, who lives in a village not far from Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/v/ZWxs4qTGklE
Early in the war and up until quite recently Russian wives, mothers and girlfriends didn't know much about anything and talked about the news on TV. Now I hear this woman giving precise information that completely confirms what outsiders say. The war has come home.
Hi,
Quite interesting conversations; thanks for uploading that. What is the name of the commentator/youtube channel?
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 01, 2022, 12:57:16 PM
Hi,
Quite interesting conversations; thanks for uploading that. What is the name of the commentator/youtube channel?
PD
Click where it says YouTube and it takes you to the source account.
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 01, 2022, 11:56:12 AM
I suspect the Ukrainian decision about how much recovered territory is the minimum they will accept has already been made, and the answer is as much as the US and others are willing to underwrite.
They won't underwrite the annexation of Belgorod. I think we can safely assume that. But then we can also assume Ukraine doesn't want more Russians on a permanent basis.
Quote from: drogulus on October 01, 2022, 01:16:06 PM
Click where it says YouTube and it takes you to the source account.
Thanks.
Quote from: drogulus on October 01, 2022, 01:16:06 PM
...But then we can also assume Ukraine doesn't want more Russians on a permanent basis.
Actually, as long as they're dead Russians in the ground l expect Ukraine is fine with them remaining.
Quote from: Todd on October 01, 2022, 08:33:22 AM
This is even worse than the endless analogies to Nazis.
First, no it's not. Second, Europe is not at risk.
Yes, Ukraine is " worth it ", and Europe
is at risk.
Putin has been explicit in his desire for the restoration of Russia's " historical borders ". For years, one of his inspirations in that regard has reportedly been the fascist philosopher Aleksandr Dugin, whose daughter was ( possibly mistakenly ) assassinated not long ago.
While Dugin's practical influence on Putin is disputed, Putin's willingness to invoke essentially any argument in his furtherance of the " Russian Empire " gives his views relevance. And Dugin has argued for a Russian empire with Dublin, Ireland as its western frontier.
Fantasy? Most assuredly, but no more so than Putin's stated objectives. Ukraine is but one of the former " SSR "s from the Soviet Union, and the easiest for Putin to rationalize attacking, but he undoubtedly will set his sights on the rest if he can win in Ukraine.
Quote from: LKB on October 01, 2022, 01:32:57 PM
Actually, as long as they're dead Russians in the ground l expect Ukraine is fine with them remaining.
The Ukes are warmongers with a heart.
It's just my opinion, man, but it might be the case ethnic Russians in Annexland are not that keen on Russian rule. After all, missile and artillery rounds don't discriminate between them and their non-Russian neighbors. The Russians are not very hearts-and-mindsy in their warfare.
Anyways, a government that treats Russians and Ukrainians equally badly is being consistent with the claim that the Ukes are really Russians after all. Point taken.
Quote from: LKB on October 01, 2022, 02:16:38 PMYes, Ukraine is " worth it ", and Europe is at risk.
Ukraine is not worth what has been expended on it already. Europe is not at risk of becoming part of some grandiose Russian empire. As triumphalists have repeatedly noted, Russia's military is not up to the task of conquering just part of Ukraine. Only people who succumb to doublethink can possibly believe that Russia can build a new European empire.
Quote from: LKB on October 01, 2022, 02:16:38 PM...but he undoubtedly will set his sights on the rest if he can win in Ukraine.
Fantasy, particularly if one uses the standard lexical definition of the word "undoubtedly". Not only would Russia be unable to conquer the remaining Eastern European powers given its current track record, it would unable to reabsorb Central Asian countries back into an empire without coming into conflict with China. Your assertions require a complete disregard of basic facts reported daily all over the world by every major press outlet.
Fresh update:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeBcWg0WQAQlZN3?format=jpg&name=small)
Quote from: Todd on October 01, 2022, 02:40:54 PM
Ukraine is not worth what has been expended on it already. Europe is not at risk of becoming part of some grandiose Russian empire. As triumphalists have repeatedly noted, Russia's military is not up to the task of conquering just part of Ukraine. Only people who succumb to doublethink can possibly believe that Russia can build a new European empire.
Fantasy, particularly if one uses the standard lexical definition of the word "undoubtedly". Not only would Russia be unable to conquer the remaining Eastern European powers given its current track record, it would unable to reabsorb Central Asian countries back into an empire without coming into conflict with China. Your assertions require a complete disregard of basic facts reported daily all over the world by every major press outlet.
Typically short-sighted.
Anyone who thinks that Russia's decrepit conventional forces will remain so indefinitely is either naive, or simply hasn't thought it through.
If Putin can pull out anything like a victory, be it military or negotiated, his first order of business will be to punish those he deems responsible for the fiasco thus far.
Next on the list would come the rebuilding of the Russian army. This would take at least a few years, but Putin can wait since he now can legally stay in power essentially indefinitely.
Once he thinks his forces are up to it, he'll have some choices as far as objectives are concerned.
So yes, Europe is endangered and will remain so
unless Putin is somehow either a) definitively defeated in Ukraine or b) removed from power, preferably both.
Self-defence is not warmongering. And that's all that is to it.
On the one hand we have a nation that is defending its recognised territory and Todd talks about warmongering.
On the other we have a leader who claims that Russian-speakers need to be saved from Nazis and Todd seems to have no inclination at all to argue with this narrative.
Meanwhile, some Putin supporters are beginning to talk about Nazis in Kazakhstan. Watch out.
Quote from: Madiel on October 01, 2022, 10:07:53 PM
Meanwhile, some Putin supporters are beginning to talk about Nazis in Kazakhstan. Watch out.
According to Russia, the only place on this planet without nazis is Russia. ::)
Last week was depressing and anxiety inducing as hell.
Quote from: LKB on October 01, 2022, 07:27:37 PMTypically short-sighted.
Anyone who thinks that Russia's decrepit conventional forces will remain so indefinitely is either naive, or simply hasn't thought it through.
If Putin can pull out anything like a victory, be it military or negotiated, his first order of business will be to punish those he deems responsible for the fiasco thus far.
Next on the list would come the rebuilding of the Russian army. This would take at least a few years, but Putin can wait since he now can legally stay in power essentially indefinitely.
Once he thinks his forces are up to it, he'll have some choices as far as objectives are concerned.
So yes, Europe is endangered and will remain so unless Putin is somehow either a) definitively defeated in Ukraine or b) removed from power, preferably both.
Incorrect across the board. Russophobia has been an irrational American concern since the Bolshevik Revolution, and people prone to this phobia are easily gulled by pro-war propaganda. The combination of phobia and gullibility is so potent that it leads to some people to double down on contrafactual doublethink.
Quote from: Todd on October 02, 2022, 04:49:42 AM
Incorrect across the board. Russophobia has been an irrational American concern since the Bolshevik Revolution, and people prone to this phobia are easily gulled by pro-war propaganda. The combination of phobia and gullibility is so potent that it leads to some people to double down on contrafactual doublethink.
And with that, a new delusional threshold is established. Grats!
Quote from: Madiel on October 01, 2022, 10:07:53 PM
Self-defense is not warmongering. And that's all that is to it.
On the one hand we have a nation that is defending its recognised territory and Todd talks about warmongering.
The use of warmongering as a synonym for self-defense is just part of the larger aim of reducing acceptable vocabulary for public discourse down to 800 words. Another example of this enlightened verbal economy is replacing a number of useless expressions like human decency, empathy, tolerance, honesty, etc., with a single expression, virtue-signaling. ;D
Quote from: LKB on October 02, 2022, 05:10:09 AM
And with that, a new delusional threshold is established. Grats!
The invasion of February came after Putin and Russia spent years pouring tens of billions of dollars into the Russian military, and after refining select military tactics in Syria. Russia ran into problems in the opening days of the war, before significant military support arrived in Ukraine, though US and allied intelligence was provided. This has all been documented and reported on by every major press outlet in the world. Belief that Russia could rebuild and quickly conquer Europe if not "defeated" in Ukraine is fundamentally detached from objective reality.
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 02, 2022, 05:14:05 AMThe use of warmongering as a synonym for self-defense
Self-defense applies to Ukraine, not the US, the UK, etc. The word warmongering very much applies to what US supporters of the war are engaged in.
I posted:
" Next on the list would come the rebuilding of the Russian army. This would take at least a few years, but Putin can wait since he now can legally stay in power essentially indefinitely. "
Delusion and laziness, you're certainly getting the job done.
Quote from: LKB on October 02, 2022, 06:28:02 AM
I posted:
" Next on the list would come the rebuilding of the Russian army. This would take at least a few years, but Putin can wait since he now can legally stay in power essentially indefinitely. "
Delusion and laziness, you're certainly getting the job done.
A few years is quickly, particularly given the years of buildup and so-called modernization undertaken by the Russians this century followed by the battlefield failures witnessed by the entire world. You continue to make contrafactual assertions.
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 02, 2022, 05:14:05 AM
The use of warmongering as a synonym for self-defense is just part of the larger aim of reducing acceptable vocabulary for public discourse down to 800 words. Another example of this enlightened verbal economy is replacing a number of useless expressions like human decency, empathy, tolerance, honesty, etc., with a single expression, virtue-signaling. ;D
I use "warmongering" to detoxify the misuse of the concept. If support for Ukraine is warmongering, let's just say it is and move on. Or you can argue and get dragged into a pointless back and forth over the meaning of words.
Having settled the issue about words, at least for now, we can put this deflection behind us and discuss the war.
Quote from: Todd on October 02, 2022, 05:21:45 AM
Self-defense applies to Ukraine, not the US, the UK, etc. The word warmongering very much applies to what US supporters of the war are engaged in.
Get a dictionary. "warmonger - n. a person who advocates, wants, or tries to precipitate war." None of what US citizens or their government are doing by supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression fits the definition. No one wants it, it's a little late for precipitating, and supporting self defense is not advocating war any more than arming someone under imminent threat of murder is advocating killing.
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 02, 2022, 07:42:49 AM
Get a dictionary. "warmonger - n. a person who advocates, wants, or tries to precipitate war." None of what US citizens or their government are doing by supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression fits the definition. No one wants it, it's a little late for precipitating, and supporting self defense is not advocating war any more than arming someone under imminent threat of murder is advocating killing.
Read: Warmonger dislikes word warmonger.
Quote from: Todd on October 02, 2022, 08:29:16 AM
Read: Warmonger dislikes word warmonger.
Read: Man responds to his exposed ignorance with idiotic non sequitur. ;D
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 02, 2022, 08:42:32 AM
Read: Man responds to his exposed ignorance with idiotic non sequitur. ;D
Do you support the US sending military hardware to Ukraine?
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 02, 2022, 07:42:49 AM
Get a dictionary. "warmonger - n. a person who advocates, wants, or tries to precipitate war." None of what US citizens or their government are doing by supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression fits the definition. No one wants it, it's a little late for precipitating, and supporting self defense is not advocating war any more than arming someone under imminent threat of murder is advocating killing.
Arguments for or against a position stand or fall on their own regardless of the mongering wordplay.
Arguments for/against supporting Ukraine will have a different flavor in Poland than in the UK. An observer will see a robust overlap. From the US the defense of Europe is seen as worth the cost even if it can not quite be as worth it as it is for Ukraine.
An odd thing is that some defense opponents say that Ukes are dying because the war is more important to the US than to the Ukes themselves. On this view the US and allies are making the Ukes fight for their country, something they otherwise would not do. However, early in the war there were discussions of how the Ukes would fight from the western half of the country if/when Kiev fell. I understood this was not bluster, and expected it to happen if it came to that. AS far as I know no one pooh-poohed the idea then in spite of the near universal pessimism about the final outcome. The view of Ukes as manipulated by outsiders doesn't hold up. The reality is the Ukes have tried to convince Europeans that helping Ukraine is in their self interest, and they have succeeded to a greater degree than most observers would have expected on February 23.
Yeah well, months ago Todd tried to imply it was other powers pushing the Ukrainian side of the war rather than the Ukrainians themselves pushing others to give them aid.
It was a stupid point of view then, it's equally stupid now, but that doesn't stop him pushing the same narrative over and over.
Oh, and about that "Russophobia" red herring?
Americans captured by Russia detail months of beatings, interrogation (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/01/alex-drueke-andy-huynh-russian-prisoners/)
Among the people who need to be scared of Putin are wealthy Russians. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-03/putin-s-epidemic-of-murder-the-russian-millionaires-dying-to-fun/101487158 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-03/putin-s-epidemic-of-murder-the-russian-millionaires-dying-to-fun/101487158)
Quote from: Madiel on October 02, 2022, 01:34:14 PM
Yeah well, months ago Todd tried to imply it was other powers pushing the Ukrainian side of the war rather than the Ukrainians themselves pushing others to give them aid.
It was a stupid point of view then, it's equally stupid now, but that doesn't stop him pushing the same narrative over and over.
It's stupid to say it because you believe it, yes. I hadn't thought about that angle, though.
Breakthrough at the Kherson front:
(https://www.novinite.com/media/images/2022-10/photo_verybig_216952.jpg)
Petraeus: US would destroy Russia's troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus)
Easy peasy.
The Ukrainian command has told Russian soldiers considering surrender that they will be listed as captured in battle so they can continue to receive benefits due to them and won't be punished for their actions. How did the Ukes get so smart?
Reports that much of the Russian army is not ethnically Russian, lest important people in Russia complain too much.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-04/vladimir-putin-mobilisation-targeting-ethnic-minorites/101486642?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_web (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-04/vladimir-putin-mobilisation-targeting-ethnic-minorites/101486642?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_web)
Quote from: drogulus on October 03, 2022, 03:43:26 PM
The Ukrainian command has told Russian soldiers considering surrender that they will be listed as captured in battle so they can continue to receive benefits due to them and won't be punished for their actions. How did the Ukes get so smart?
That
is smart!
Meanwhile more "wishful thinking" becomes reality on the battle field:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeLy65CXgAAKXy5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeLzpArWIAAJz9Q?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
"Fake state" Ukraine is able to fend off one the world's superpowers. Impressive.
Quote from: Que on October 03, 2022, 11:13:49 PM"Fake state" Ukraine is able to fend off on the world's superpowers. Impressive.
Being able to fend off a superpower or great power (Russia is not a superpower, and has not been since the 90s) is not a unique feat. Vietnam did it. Afghanistan did it twice. (It also fended off the British Empire; stay away from Afghanistan.) Cuba has done it for over half a century. If the US and Europe did not fund and arm Ukraine, the successes may be a bit less pronounced. Or non-existent. The Russo-Ukrainian War is a proxy war, with Ukraine dependent on unprecedented military and economic support from an external power.
The WaPo Editorial Board on who blew up the Nordstream pipelines:
Undersea pipeline sabotage demands the West prepare for more attacks (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/04/gas-pipeline-sabotage-russia-ukraine-response/)
Quote from: WaPo Editorial BoardThe author of this strike against Europe's stability and security was Russia...
Put it all together and the attack looks very much like an attempt to take revenge on countries that have backed Ukraine — a signal to them that more expensive energy supply disruptions might be coming — while preserving plausible deniability.
Granholm, Brennan, Time, now WaPo. That cinches it: Russia did it. The West really ought to impose some sanctions, or something, to really give Russia what for.
So are Putin's days numbered? Isn't it risky to put guns in the hands of thousands of untrained pissed off people? Is the only opposition that's allowed to exist in Russia crazier than Putin? Does Russia have any political institutions that function in Putin's absence or is it just pandemonium once he's out?
well, those untrained people with guns are shipped fast to Ukraine. They can't get even near the government HQ.
any removal of Putin will have to come from within the elite, and they will have to be able to reach across a very long desk.
or just lock the door to that white and gold hall and throw away the keys.
Fox News: America's Anti-America Network
Fox News: Putin Propaganda Primetime (https://www.thebulwark.com/fox-news-putin-propaganda-primetime/)
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on October 05, 2022, 09:29:19 AM
Fox News: America's Anti-America Network
Fox News: Putin Propaganda Primetime (https://www.thebulwark.com/fox-news-putin-propaganda-primetime/)
The whole article is worthwhile but this particular snippet
This depiction of military conflict—if you resist the aggressor, you're for "war," but if you reward him by capitulating, you're for "peace"—used to be associated with the left. Now it's spreading on the right certainly rings a sonorous bell here on GMG. ;D
Russia's trajectory of hate: A big war against the West coming (https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3674650-russias-trajectory-of-hate-a-big-war-against-the-west-coming/)
The highlight of the op-ed is inclusion of the word Götterdämmerung. The Nazi references are pretty good, too.
CNBC last week: The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/the-us-and-europe-are-running-out-of-weapons-to-send-to-ukraine.html)
The Gray Lady today: U.S. Aims to Turn Taiwan Into Giant Weapons Depot (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/taiwan-biden-weapons-china.html)
YTD stock performance for top five US arms manufacturers:
Northrup Grumman: 26.5%
Lockheed Martin: 14.3%
General Dynamics: 9.8%
Raytheon: (1.79%)
Boeing: (36.1%)
Fiscal year 2024 appropriations need to boost defense spending. Hopefully the Pentagon and Congress can do something to really help Boeing, sheesh.
Quote from: Herman on October 04, 2022, 11:14:16 PM
well, those untrained people with guns are shipped fast to Ukraine. They can't get even near the government HQ.
any removal of Putin will have to come from within the elite, and they will have to be able to reach across a very long desk.
or just lock the door to that white and gold hall and throw away the keys.
Of course, but if they kill two superiors, and they kill two superiors, and so on and so on...I'm just wondering how smart it is to arm a bunch of people like that. I'm not saying that they'll join hands and march the other way. But I can imagine things collapsing faster than now.
But what happens if Putin does, cough, choke on his Cheerios?
Russian recruits being forced to spend huge amounts of money buying their own equipment and supplies and living in "animal conditions". From The Moscow Times
"Recently mobilized Russian soldiers are decrying "inhumane" conditions, weapons shortages and mistreatment by officers, according to video published by the independent news website The Insider on Wednesday.
Footage of new recruits sleeping on the floor, being armed with outdated rifles and ordered to source their own supplies appeared almost immediately after President Vladimir Putin announced a "partial" mobilization last month.
Around 500 troops gathered in western Russia's Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border with no training and no knowledge of where they were being deployed, the latest video's authors said.
"Nobody needs us," a voice behind the camera, flanked by uniformed soldiers on a train platform, can be heard saying.
"We've lived in animal conditions for a week," the voice said, adding that the soldiers had received no material support or financial compensation since being called up.
"We've spent an absurd amount of money just to feed ourselves, not to mention on ammunition."
The Insider reported earlier that the soldiers' wives were forced to spend as much as $2,500 on equipping their husbands. A website set up to answer questions on mobilization states that requiring soldiers to buy their own equipment is illegal. The same website encourages soldiers to bring their own night vision goggles and drones to the battlefield.
It was not clear where the mobilized soldiers depicted in the video were ultimately deployed.
Western military analysts predict that the Kremlin's rush to deploy new recruits to the frontlines would result in high death rates, troop unreliability and low morale.
Several recruits were reported to have died before deployment."
And ethnic minorities being inordinately conscripted (same source):
"Just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization for the war in Ukraine last week, a family in Russia's majority-Buddhist republic of Kalmykia gathered to decide how to protect its four draft-eligible men.
"We thought my uncle would be drafted first and decided he would go to Kazakhstan... He left the next day," the youngest man in the family from Kalmykia's capital Elista told The Moscow Times.
Assured that his family was relatively safe, the man — a local activist who requested anonymity to speak freely — started helping conscription-age men to avoid "becoming cannon fodder" by fleeing abroad. But then his father received draft papers.
"I wasn't able to convince my father to leave... I am going to the draft office tomorrow to bid farewell," the activist wrote on social media Thursday.
"He is 47. He avoided the Chechen war, but not this one."
Evidence from regional activists who spoke to The Moscow Times suggests that, almost a week into Russia's mobilization drive, a disproportionate amount of the men being drafted come from Russia's ethnic minorities.
Many of the ethnic republics that appear to have seen large numbers of men receiving draft papers — including the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan and Siberian republic of Buryatia — have already suffered heavy losses in the war in Ukraine.
"In Elista, they are planning to take 332 people, which is quite a lot for a city with a population of no more than 150,000," local Kalmyk activist Daavr Dordzhin told The Moscow Times.
In the Siberian republic of Buryatia, one of Russia's poorest regions, thousands of men — including recently discharged soldiers and those who initially refused to be sent to Ukraine — have apparently received call-up papers.
"All the young men we were able to save and bring back home are now being invited to go back into that meat grinder," said Alexandra Garmazhapova, co-founder of the anti-war Free Buryatia Foundation that helps conscientious objectors.
The governor of Buryatia, Aleksei Tsydenov. Pavel Volkov / Roscongress Photobank
The governor of Buryatia, Aleksei Tsydenov.Pavel Volkov / Roscongress Photobank
There are no official figures for the numbers of men mobilized in each Russian region, and The Moscow Times was unable to confirm numbers given by activists.
In Bashkortostan, an oil-rich Muslim-majority republic in central Russia, fathers of four and men over 40 years old are among those to have received draft papers, according to Bashkir opposition activist Ruslan Gabbasov
"I don't know the exact numbers of people drafted, but they are sending out draft papers left, right and center," he told The Moscow Times.
And in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, the peninsula's indigenous Crimean Tatars have apparently been hit particularly hard.
"Eighty percent of the draft papers for mobilization in Crimea were sent out to Crimean Tatars (Crimean Tatars make up less than 20% of the population of Crimea)," journalist and activist Osman Pashaev wrote in a post on Facebook last week.
Many activists have suggested mobilizing more men from ethnic minorities far from Moscow and St. Petersburg is a way for the Kremlin to reduce the draft's impact on major cities, where the chances of opposition protests are higher.
But many of these regions — which are generally poorer and more fertile recruiting grounds for the Russian army that can provide a stable salary and act as a social lift — also have a higher-than-average number of military veterans.
"A mobilization that focuses on recent veterans will... disproportionately affect regions where there are more military units," military analyst Rob Lee tweeted last week.
Perhaps because of the outsize impact of the draft on their communities, ethnic minorities have played a prominent role in anti-mobilization protests — often led by women — in recent days, with videos emerging of demonstrators blocking roads, scuffling with police and calling for peace.
A military enlistment office in Russia. Dmitry Lebedev / Kommersant
A military enlistment office in Russia.Dmitry Lebedev / Kommersant
The ethnic republics of Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria and the Arctic republic of Sakha all saw significant protests over the weekend.
Demonstrators in Yakutsk, the capital of mineral-rich Sakha, organized traditional dances at a protest Saturday and were seen chanting "No to war!" and "No to genocide!" — a reference to the fact that mobilizing men from small ethnic minority communities will likely cause their population numbers to plummet.
And in Dagestan, protesters in the town of Khasavyurt blocked a key highway Sunday. Police fired in the air in an attempt to despers the rallies, according to videos from the scene.
Over 10 times more people were detained at anti-mobilization protests Sunday in Dagestan's Makhachkala than in Moscow, according to protest monitoring group OVD-Info.
Like in most Russian regions, the mobilization drive in ethnic republics appears to be particularly intense in poorer, rural areas, activists said.
In the Caucasus republic of North Ossetia, "draft papers are distributed mostly in villages," one local activist who requested anonymity told The Moscow Times.
And a similar tactic is used in Bashkortostan.
"They are taking ordinary boys from the districts and villages," one eyewitness from Bashkortostan said in a message sent to the Free Buryatia Foundation that the group subsequently shared online.
Many activists blamed regional leaders keen to impress the Kremlin for the speed of mobilization in areas with large ethnic minority communities.
"The over-eagerness of the head of Buryatia, Aleksei Tsydenov, plays an important role," activist Garmazhapova told The Moscow Times.
"If Vladimir Putin told him to do a pole dance, he would do it. And just as easily he will send young men from Buryatia to war... He doesn't see them as people, he sees them as a means to achieve his [political] goals," she said. "
PD
Reuters reporting on Gray Lady reporting: U.S. believes Ukraine was behind killing of Dugina in Russia, NYT says (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-believes-ukrainians-behind-killing-dugina-russia-nyt-says-2022-10-06/)
Thankfully, "[t]he United States took no part in the attack on Dugina and was not aware of it ahead of time[.]"
Russia is not running out of weapons to gift to Ukraine, though there is a problem with the lower quality of more recent gifts. Well, at least the Ukes know how to use the stuff better than the Russians.
A birb told me the LMT plant is producing more HIMARs to send to Ukraine. The way it's put is "replenish the stocks".
Camden, Arkansas is where Lockheed Martin has their production facilities for HIMARS and GMLRS systems.
Quote from: Todd on October 06, 2022, 05:00:06 AM
Reuters reporting on Gray Lady reporting: U.S. believes Ukraine was behind killing of Dugina in Russia, NYT says (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-believes-ukrainians-behind-killing-dugina-russia-nyt-says-2022-10-06/)
Thankfully, "[t]he United States took no part in the attack on Dugina and was not aware of it ahead of time[.]"
A huge blunder on the part of the Ukrainians... Some reports suggest a lack of central control in the decision making process within Ukrainian intelligence and the US flagging this incident as a warning.
Quote from: Que on October 06, 2022, 08:42:02 AM
A huge blunder on the part of the Ukrainians... Some reports suggest a lack of central control in the decision making process within Ukrainian intelligence and the US flagging this incident as a warning.
Reuters says:
Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, told Reuters on Thursday that "objectively speaking" Dugina had been of no interest to Kyiv before she was killed.
"Before Dugina's murder, the people of Ukraine and representatives of the Ukrainian authorities did not know about her public activities and her influence on propaganda programmes," he wrote on WhatsApp in response to a Reuters request for comment.
"In our opinion, the key beneficiary of Dugina's murder was certain Russian radical supporters of the war (in Ukraine). Including a section of the (Russian) special services."
The New York Times said some U.S. officials suspected that Dugina's father, a vocal supporter of what Russia calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine, had been the actual target of the assassination. I don't find the Uke denial convincing. It's worded like a non-denial denial, as though not targeting Dugina means no one was targeted. If they wanted to say they didn't do what was done it would be in their interest to say so plainly.
Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis (https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25)
This is literally something Biden can personally control.
Perhaps the GMG warmongers can rationalize.
Quote from: Todd on October 06, 2022, 05:38:10 PM
Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis (https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25)
This is literally something Biden can personally control.
Perhaps the GMG warmongers can rationalize.
How productive.
Quote from: Todd on October 06, 2022, 05:38:10 PM
Biden: Nuclear 'Armageddon' risk highest since '62 crisis (https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25)
This is literally something Biden can personally control.
Perhaps the GMG warmongers can rationalize.
Yes, well, figments of your imagination can do anything you want, Todd, and yet nothing at all.
Quote from: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-PierreIt's clear that OPEC+ is aligning with Russia with today's announcement
What happened?
Biden bent a knee to MBS. And got stabbed in the back. (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-bent-a-knee-to-mbs-and-got-stabbed-in-the-back/ar-AA12G2xq?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=47c66102bffb46d6af6030eba07153fe)
Good to see the "stab in the back myth" make a comeback. (Mr Parsi works for the Koch-Soros funded Quincy Institute - you read that right, Koch-Soros funded - so the rhetorical selection was obviously purposeful.)
Not the hoped-for October surprise.
Russia!
Quote from: Que on October 06, 2022, 08:42:02 AM
A huge blunder on the part of the Ukrainians... Some reports suggest a lack of central control in the decision making process within Ukrainian intelligence and the US flagging this incident as a warning.
The assassination of Daria Dugina makes no sense at all. Most probably they targeted her father but something went wrong intelligence-wise, they were unaware Alexander Dugin changed the car in the last moment.
In other news, an official from the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that they are committed to, and engaged in, negotiations for avoiding a nuclear conflict, thus contradicting Putin's narrative.
Unless Putin wants to strengthen arms control agreements I don't see the point of bilateral negotiations.
Threat threatening is a public pressure gambit. It strikes me as very unlikely that US policy types are confused by it.
I suppose the US could string the Russians along until they are evicted from Ukraine in 2023. What's the carrot? What can we give them that they want?
Quote from: Florestan on October 07, 2022, 07:33:30 AM
In other news, an official from the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that they are committed to, and engaged in, negotiations for avoiding a nuclear conflict, thus contradicting Putin's narrative.
It's not the same target audience. Threat threatening is not how diplomats talk to each other when they're trying to get work done.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 07, 2022, 10:20:10 AM
Possibly Crimea, and a guaranteed water supply to it.
I'm not keen on giving anything to Putin that he has sought to take by force, but Crimea was not Ukraine's until Krushchev made it so in 1954, so I think if agreeing to his possession of it meant he sodded off out of the rest of Ukraine, maybe he'd trade? Not sure Ukraine would, of course, but maybe...
The condition in return would have to be Ukraine becomes a NATO member, because Russia guaranteeing its sovereignty (again!) is clearly a non-starter.
And that means I don't think that deal would fly after all, leaving your question fundamentally unanswered... which is a worry.
The legal framework is the 1997 agreement guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty, ratified by Ukraine in 1998. I don't think the US can negotiate this away over the objection of Ukraine.
The problem is Russia can't win the war by force of arms. It should be clear that escalation wouldn't favor Russia, either. A devastating response using conventional weapons would be the outcome. At least that would give Russia a very good reason to negotiate. As long as Russia doesn't invade Europe it can continue its miserable existence, and we might even sweeten the pot a little by agreeing to the resumption of economic cooperation that's good for them and for others, too.
Implicit in the deal is Putin goes. I expect we wouldn't even have to say it, since Russians understand perfectly and almost certainly prefer it that way. The hardliners don't want him, the fence-sitters know he's an obstacle, the wealthy want a deal, any deal that helps them. I don't suppose the brain drainers have much pull. The technocrats view them as essential, though. It's not so good for Russia to become the Stupidest Formerly Advanced Country ever.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 07, 2022, 10:20:10 AM
Possibly Crimea, and a guaranteed water supply to it.
I'm not keen on giving anything to Putin that he has sought to take by force, but Crimea was not Ukraine's until Krushchev made it so in 1954, so I think if agreeing to his possession of it meant he sodded off out of the rest of Ukraine, maybe he'd trade? Not sure Ukraine would, of course, but maybe...
The condition in return would have to be Ukraine becomes a NATO member, because Russia guaranteeing its sovereignty (again!) is clearly a non-starter.
And that means I don't think that deal would fly after all, leaving your question fundamentally unanswered... which is a worry.
Maybe we could promise never to station nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil, à la Cuba?
While I take your historical bsckground point: Now that Russia is revealed as a mortal enemy, Ukraine should keep the Crimea, not so much for itself (though it is a nice vacation destination) but so that it is
not a Russian toehold.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 07, 2022, 10:20:10 AM
Crimea was not Ukraine's until Krushchev made it so in 1954
North Bukovina, Hertsa County, Cahul County, Bolgrad County, Ismail County were not Ukraine's until Stalin made them so in 1940. They were historically Romanian territories. ;D
I've said it before, I say it again: contemporary Ukraine's territory is an artificial patchwork comprising territories which historically belonged to Romania, Hungary, Poland and Russia --- yet I'd willingly have, and do support the territorial integrity of, this artificial Ukraine as a buffer state between Romania and Russia rather than having common border with Russia.
Plus, with respect to the Republic of Moldova: if tomorrow a referendum were held about their being reunited with Romania I'd vote against, for the simple reason that making Romanian citizens out of tens of thousands of Russians living in RoM today means inviting Putin to meddle into Romania's affairs under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking minority. Thanks but no thanks.
Quote from: Florestan on October 07, 2022, 11:28:58 AM
North Bukovina, Hertsa County, Cahul County, Bolgrad County, Ismail County were not Ukraine's until Stalin made them so in 1940. They were historically Romanian territories. ;D
I've said it before, I say it again: contemporary Ukraine's territory is an artificial patchwork comprising territories which historically belonged to Romania, Hungary, Poland and Russia --- yet I'd willingly have, and do support the territorial integrity of, this artificial Ukraine as a buffer state between Romania and Russia rather than having common border with Russia.
Plus, with respect to the Republic of Moldova: if tomorrow a referendum were held about their being reunited with Romania I'd vote against, for the simple reason that making Romanian citizens out of tens of thousands of Russians living in RoM today means inviting Putin to meddle into Romania's affairs under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking minority. Thanks but no thanks.
No kidding!
Mossad, please come to the rescue!
Quote from: Madiel on October 03, 2022, 04:13:56 PM
Reports that much of the Russian army is not ethnically Russian, lest important people in Russia complain too much.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-04/vladimir-putin-mobilisation-targeting-ethnic-minorites/101486642?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_web (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-04/vladimir-putin-mobilisation-targeting-ethnic-minorites/101486642?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_web)
Sorry, I had missed your earlier posting when I did mine. Haven't had a chance to read your article yet, but I suspect that the articles are similar in nature. Will check it out soon.
PD
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 07, 2022, 12:00:31 PM
Oh, I think that if the USA said 'give up Crimea for peace, and if you don't, no more HIMARS for you', they'd probably agree to it.
The US is about to provide a better missile for the HIMARS, or maybe it already has. Nobody tells me anything, so I have to figure out what it means. All I can say is what it looks like. The US wants Ukraine to be able to get back its territory.
All state borders are artificial constructs.
Russia is an artificial construct. The fact that the rulers of Moscow took on the Rus name does not give them a direct line of authority to Kievan Rus. Which is not even where the Rus started within that part of the world, and before that they were almost certainly a bunch of invading Scandinavians.
People go back to history to invoke the bits that suit them, and artificially stop at various points. But we now have modern systems of how to change borders. Putin has just aped one of those modern systems precisely because he knows a referendum is acceptable.
Fire and explosion on the Russia-Crimea bridge. A rather interesting development.
Quote from: Madiel on October 07, 2022, 11:34:37 PM
Fire and explosion on the Russia-Crimea bridge. A rather interesting development.
Indeed. The explosion was huge and a train was hit, as you can see on the picture below.
The roadside of the bridge has collapsed, the railway part might go soon:
(https://images.dailykos.com/images/1121306/story_image/FehT_pQWQAA5_re.jpeg?1665204524)
I'm waiting for another Ukranian surprise: the opening of a third front.
And there is a major incident with the Starlink used for communication by the Ukrainians. Troops are at the moment blind on the battle field. Hopefully Musk and his team can solve this soon before the Ukes loose their momentum. A Russian hack it was.
I am fed up with all the insanity. Humankind is done. We were too stupid to make this work so we destroy ourself. It is only a matter of time when the nuking starts because they can't stop that madman. Bombing the bridge is a good reason for Putin to nuke Ukraine.
Biden's 'Armageddon' warning wasn't based on new intelligence, US says (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/07/biden-armageddon-warning-russia-nuclear-weapons-ukraine?utm_term=63415f3c81d133d13b920fe166e3a4e4&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUS&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUS_email)
It was reckless fear mongering and warmongering at a midterm fundraising event with the express intention of funneling more dollars to the proper candidates and to get out the vote drives. Or it was a gaffe. Or it was a gaffe that was not really a gaffe, like Biden's reckless call for regime change in Russia only a few months ago.
Quote from: 71 dB on October 08, 2022, 03:37:57 AM
Bombing the bridge is a good reason for Putin to nuke Ukraine.
The bridge is in Ukraine. Besides, not that it makes you more at ease, Putin could drop the bomb whenever he wants.
Quote from: Que on October 08, 2022, 04:00:16 AM
The bridge is in Ukraine. Besides, not that it makes you more at ease, Putin could drop the bomb whenever he wants.
Putin thinks it was in Russia since 2014.
The U.S. Needs To Change Course Right Now in Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/us-needs-change-course-right-now-ukraine-opinion-1749740)
A Newsweek op-ed. This probably means Newsweek is a lost cause.
Pointing out there's no clear line between the use of a tactical nuke and a full nuclear exchange is done all the time by normal people and even experts. My view is that the ambiguity over the response is a feature and not oversight or confusion. Let people argue over the wisdom of "no clear line", I say. Add another layer of ambiguity on top. There is ambiguity in war, and more ambiguity in deterrence. I would not assume any kind of mongering unless I knew the identity of the intended recipients of the message Biden was sending. I think I know, but I'm not sure.
If a magazine endorses a "might makes right" outcome over signed agreements then why complain about Ukraine reconquering its own territory? What are they doing wrong? Are they not mighty and therefor have rights, just like Russians did when they were the mighty ones?
Putin does not lack for useful American idiots.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 08, 2022, 07:51:55 AMHow you describe the elected head of state of Ukraine as "a pawn of the Davos/NGO globalist class" with a straight face, I leave as an exercise for the gullible and daft.
I agree with this. Zelensky is a good, old-fashioned American puppet. He won't be the last.
Sticking with the topic of everyone's current favorite American puppet, this week's Twitter exchange was an exercise in bold leadership, decisiveness, seriousness, and an unfailing ability to focus on what's important.
Hopefully, Zelensky can refocus on begging for dollars.
(https://hwnews.in/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/HEADSSSSSSSS-960x540.jpg)
Whose puppet was Zelensky when Trump asked for a "favor though" he didn't grant?
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on October 08, 2022, 08:36:11 AM
Putin does not lack for useful American idiots.
Oh I think he does lack them. There's no unified support among Trumpists for Putin. The CPAC group issued a pro-Putin tweet and then deleted it and put up a pro-Ukraine one that mentioned "American taxpayers" something something. So.....now you have my attention? Geez, taxes, why didn't I think of that?
Quote from: drogulus on October 08, 2022, 08:33:00 AM
If a magazine endorses a "might makes right" outcome over signed agreements then why complain about Ukraine reconquering its own territory? What are they doing wrong? Are they not mighty and therefor have rights, just like Russians did when they were the mighty ones?
Indeed. Urging an end to war just when Ukraine is winning...
It's also completely weird arguing that the only thing that meaningfully counts as "Ukraine" is Kyiv.
US professor hauled off air over Nord Stream pipeline accusation (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/media/us-professor-hauled-off-air-over-nord-stream-pipeline-accusation/news-story/ce9349858e3bcfa63299d1c58d085e74)
Jeffrey Sachs is at it again. He was being interviewed on Bloomberg when he asserted that the US blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, asserted that non-Americans he spoke with agreed with him, and that some US reporters do as well. The hosts were displeased. (I have not noticed any such displeasure when someone asserts that Russia blew the pipelines up, also without evidence. Hmm.) The video is available on YouTube and Rumble and elsewhere. He cites Secretary Blinken's statement about how the Nord Stream incident presents a "tremendous opportunity" to eliminate European dependence on Russian energy as circumstantial evidence. (Blinken's statement echoes statements made by Condoleeza Rice in a 2014 interview regarding removing Russia as a source for European energy and replacing it with American energy, but Mr Sachs did not mention that.) Mr Sachs was very naughty.
I wonder if Mr Sachs will be named to the Time 100 list again, especially given that Time, based on the facts and nothing but the facts, has already definitively reported that Russia done did blow up them thar pipelines.
An explosives expert theorizes that Russia may be at fault for the bridge damage. I'll allow the theory to be true if it makes the West look bad. Isn't epistemology fun?
Just heard that 75 missiles had been fired at Ukraine (4-1 shot down). >:(
If I typed what I'm currently thinking and feeling, the language would NOT be pretty!
PD
Seeing some estimates that it's closer to 200 missiles. Power and internet are out in most major Ukrainian cities (for the first time in the war).
Military nerds have tentatively identified them as anti-ship missiles that were never designed to be used against ground targets; i.e., these are not precision weapons (regardless of what Putin says) and thus are hitting civilian infrastructure pretty much at random. If true, this could partially explain the reports from people on the ground that air raid sirens didn't go off, giving people no time to evacuate.
The only real purpose of this, I think, is to keep Putin safe from a coup from his right on the grounds that he hasn't prosecuted the war violently enough yet. (Yes, that's a real complaint of the Russian right wing.)
Quote from: amw on October 10, 2022, 02:45:15 AM
Seeing some estimates that it's closer to 200 missiles. Power and internet are out in most major Ukrainian cities (for the first time in the war).
Military nerds have tentatively identified them as anti-ship missiles that were never designed to be used against ground targets; i.e., these are not precision weapons (regardless of what Putin says) and thus are hitting civilian infrastructure pretty much at random. *If true, this could partially explain the reports from people on the ground that air raid sirens didn't go off, giving people no time to evacuate.
The only real purpose of this, I think, is to keep Putin safe from a coup from his right on the grounds that he hasn't prosecuted the war violently enough yet. (Yes, that's a real complaint of the Russian right wing.)
I'm not surprised that the number is higher--I had to turn off CNN earlier as I was getting too upset.
*Oh, God help them!
I pray that his army and country revolt against him! And soon! Like now!
PD
Quote from: amw on October 10, 2022, 02:45:15 AMThe only real purpose of this, I think, is to keep Putin safe from a coup from his right on the grounds that he hasn't prosecuted the war violently enough yet. (Yes, that's a real complaint of the Russian right wing.)
This appears true. About 6000 Ukranian civilians have been killed to date. If Russia had adopted tactics like those used by the allies in WWII or by the US in Vietnam, hundreds of thousands of civilians would be dead already, and that is what (non-nuclear) escalation could look like. This also perfectly exemplifies why people who not at all secretly long for regime change in Russia should be wary: Putin's successor in a coup could be a military commander worse than Putin. Romantic notions that either a coup or a populist, democratic uprising will install a peaceful, apologetic, western style liberal as head of state who would immediately end the war, willfully give up Ukrainian territory, pay reparations, and capitulate to American demands are more likely than not naive. But hardened positions thousands of miles away from the battlefield preclude settlement negotiations.
With Winter Coming, Europe Is Walking Off a Cliff
Europeans won't escape their energy crisis as long as ideology trumps basic math. (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/29/europe-energy-crisis-russia-policies-gas-nuclear-renewable-electricity-prices/)
Quote from: Brenda ShafferDespite the math, the data, and a two-year-old energy crisis that has sharply worsened since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, European policymakers continue to follow each other like sheep. As if the energy crisis weren't happening, the Netherlands announced this week that it will continue to reduce gas production at the massive Groningen field. Germany is sticking to its fracking ban and nuclear phaseout, while Belgium shut down a nuclear power plant last week that provides a significant share of the country's electricity needs—even as Belgians protest in the streets against skyrocketing energy prices.
Europeans, through dreadful but purposeful policy choices, made themselves highly vulnerable to economic warfare, especially in energy. It does not appear that current events are forcing a reevaluation. Europeans are actively relegating themselves to geopolitical insignificance.
Quote from: Todd on October 10, 2022, 04:35:37 AM
This appears true. About 6000 Ukranian civilians have been killed to date. If Russia had adopted tactics like those used by the allies in WWII or by the US in Vietnam, hundreds of thousands of civilians would be dead already, and that is what (non-nuclear) escalation could look like. This also perfectly exemplifies why people who not at all secretly long for regime change in Russia should be wary: Putin's successor in a coup could be a military commander worse than Putin. Romantic notions that either a coup or a populist, democratic uprising will install a peaceful, apologetic, western style liberal as head of state who would immediately end the war, willfully give up Ukrainian territory, pay reparations, and capitulate to American demands are more likely than not naive. But hardened positions thousands of miles away from the battlefield preclude settlement negotiations.
Considering how poorly equipped, trained and motivated most of his army is, I wouldn't be at all surprised about more desertions or perhaps even turning on their own captains/superiors.
And, yes, any "replacement" could be worse but I suspect not considering the high toll that this war has been having on their country; people are now realizing that their loved ones are in danger of being conscripted and deployed and likely also killed in the end.
PD
Germany will send and has already sent 2 IRIS-T systems, so that they may defend themselves against those rockets, and America will sent them also air defense systems. I have friends in Kiev, and they are confident, and saw the German air defense at work, they took out 46 Russian missiles.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 10, 2022, 06:49:50 AMConsidering how poorly equipped, trained and motivated most of his army is, I wouldn't be at all surprised about more desertions or perhaps even turning on their own captains/superiors.
And, yes, any "replacement" could be worse but I suspect not considering the high toll that this war has been having on their country; people are now realizing that their loved ones are in danger of being conscripted and deployed and likely also killed in the end.
These things may be true, but a poorly equipped Russian military is still the second most powerful military in the world - at least if the Pentagon is to be believed - and can kill thousands upon thousands more Ukrainians. I would put no faith in the hope that Putin's replacement, if he is replaced soon, is any better. Russian politicians do not view Ukraine the same way the West does, at least going by what academics and foreign policy specialists write.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 10, 2022, 03:16:32 AM
I'm not surprised that the number is higher--I had to turn off CNN earlier as I was getting too upset.
Ukrainian telegram updates: 83 separate strikes identified, some of which consisted of multiple missiles; the death toll is significantly higher than official reports are currently stating (and there is some frustration among Ukrainians that Zelensky and his cabinet had already evacuated in advance and apparently didn't warn anyone else this was coming); power infrastructure should be restored over the next few days, assuming the attack is actually over. (Official claims are that power will be back by tomorrow, but people are doubtful about this.)
Ukraine has halted energy exports to Europe to cope with the damage to its power grid, which will undoubtedly please the people who have been looking forward to a European energy crisis for whatever reason.
It's true that this kind of warfare is essentially how the West and its allies have waged war for decades, and not surprising that Russia is imitating it. If Russia really is losing on the battlefield, which I won't speculate on, we can probably expect this sort of thing to become more common due to the increased need for PR victories at home. And it should go without saying that these kinds of strikes on infrastructure are just as criminal and monstrous when carried out by the USA against Iraq or Afghanistan or Israel against Gaza or Saudi Arabia against Yemen or Ethiopia against Tigray etc. This is just the one that happens to be getting the most airtime right now (because for once it wasn't done by the "good guys") and is still worth condemning regardless.
It seems Vlad the Mad has taken the strike against the Kerch bridge rather personally:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/europe/ukraine-kyiv-missile-strikes-russia-intl/index.html
The linked article is a bit odd, referring to a " wounded " Putin and referring to the blast as an " eruption ". Perhaps after several months of war coverage CNN are looking for novel journalistic terms for their content, but they'll be better off using the same boring old terms which impart impartiality.
Quote from: LKB on October 10, 2022, 09:05:38 AM
It seems Vlad the Mad has taken the strike against the Kerch bridge rather personally:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/europe/ukraine-kyiv-missile-strikes-russia-intl/index.html
The linked article is a bit odd, referring to a " wounded " Putin and referring to the blast as an " eruption ". Perhaps after several months of war coverage CNN are looking for novel journalistic terms for their content, but they'll be better off using the same boring old terms which impart impartiality.
Indeed.
Quote from: 71 dB on October 08, 2022, 03:37:57 AM
Bombing the bridge is a good reason for Putin to nuke Ukraine.
You should tell Putin, then. Make him see reason.
The hardliners have a dilemma. If they get rid of Putin they'll have the distasteful chore of getting rid of each other, and the "winner" will be responsible for the Ukraine fiasco and possibly the dissolution of the federation. I mean, look at what's happening in central Asia. Ungrateful vassals are making deals with Europe and China. All over the country the defenses are being stripped to feed the Ukraine meat grinder. It will be a miracle if Russia somehow avoids another war.
The Putinist logic is self-fulfilling. Russia must expand or die because that has been the Russian belief. It can't exist peacefully with its neighbors because it believes it can't. Listen carefully to the TV commentators on Russian TV. Do they talk about ultimate victory? I don't hear it. What I hear is the world is against them and everyone should die. It's not about victory, it's about death. I don't think any of these guys or the guys behind the guys really wants to be in charge. I think they are looking for someone to blame. None of them want to be that person.
Quote from: Harry on October 10, 2022, 06:56:15 AM
Germany will send and has already sent 2 IRIS-T systems, so that they may defend themselves against those rockets, and America will sent them also air defense systems. I have friends in Kiev, and they are confident, and saw the German air defense at work, they took out 46 Russian missiles.
Yes! Thank you Germany!
Quote from: Todd on October 10, 2022, 07:12:29 AM
These things may be true, but a poorly equipped Russian military is still the second most powerful military in the world - at least if the Pentagon is to be believed - and can kill thousands upon thousands more Ukrainians. I would put no faith in the hope that Putin's replacement, if he is replaced soon, is any better. Russian politicians do not view Ukraine the same way the West does, at least going by what academics and foreign policy specialists write.
One can hope (re Putin and replacement).
Which one of Putin's top guys was the one who I believe, according to one article, spent some years as a youth going to school in the Ukraine? Not certain where he was born. If I'm recalling correctly, he was shocked and saddened about Putin's decision to attack Ukraine and I believe tried to dissuade him from his attacks? Think that he went along with it in the end though. :(
Quote from: amw on October 10, 2022, 08:43:09 AM
Ukrainian telegram updates: 83 separate strikes identified, some of which consisted of multiple missiles; the death toll is significantly higher than official reports are currently stating (and there is some frustration among Ukrainians that Zelensky and his cabinet had already evacuated in advance and apparently didn't warn anyone else this was coming); power infrastructure should be restored over the next few days, assuming the attack is actually over. (Official claims are that power will be back by tomorrow, but people are doubtful about this.)
Telegrams?! ???
Just curious as to where you are getting your information from. Always like to know sources.
I would be quite surprised if they hadn't tried to warn folks ahead of time if given the opportunity. I wonder what the circumstances might have been if that were the case? Perhaps we don't know everything?
Best,
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 10, 2022, 10:12:22 AMThink that he went along with it in the end though.
He had no choice, just as US generals who had misgivings about Iraq, Libya, or Syria had no choice.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 10, 2022, 10:12:22 AM
Telegrams?! ???
Just curious as to where you are getting your information from. Always like to know sources.
Telegram is an instant messaging app. Since the start of the war I've followed a number of channels there in which people (mostly Ukrainian civilians) have been sharing their experiences, ways to keep one another safe, videos and reports from the front lines, and other relevant information. These are not things you see in news stories and sometimes they do not prove to be true, but they do represent, essentially, what people are talking about and the tone of public opinion, which in its own way plays a major role in shaping the outcomes of war and diplomacy.
(Some use of Google Translate is necessary since I can't speak Ukrainian or Russian lol)
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on October 10, 2022, 10:12:22 AM
Yes! Thank you Germany!
One can hope (re Putin and replacement).
Which one of Putin's top guys was the one who I believe, according to one article, spent some years as a youth going to school in the Ukraine? Not certain where he was born. If I'm recalling correctly, he was shocked and saddened about Putin's decision to attack Ukraine and I believe tried to dissuade him from his attacks? Think that he went along with it in the end though. :(
Telegrams?! ???
Just curious as to where you are getting your information from. Always like to know sources.
I would be quite surprised if they hadn't tried to warn folks ahead of time if given the opportunity. I wonder what the circumstances might have been if that were the case? Perhaps we don't know everything?
Best,
PD
Telegram is an app similar to Whatsapp and Instagram. It's not as heavy on moderation and content control, so it has a history of rather nasty groups using it. But there are plenty of legitimate users, especially in Eastern Europe/ex-USSR countries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telegram_(software)
Russians have learned how the war is going from Telegram, which is used by Russian war bloggers who are quite candid about how bad things are going for them. The phone intercepts show the message is hitting home. Also, Russians seem to know exactly how bad the mobilization is going.
I would be cautious with claims that Russia is losing the war. It's certainly true that both Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels (and other social media) are convinced Russia is losing, for various reasons, and public opinion in Russia seems to have turned against the war now that it will involve actual troops instead of proxy paramilitaries and mercenaries. But there are some reasons to avoid undue optimism.
First of all, Russia's mobilisation may or may not be "successful" in terms of recruiting soldiers but it has prompted economic reorganisation of the country onto a total war footing with associated austerity measures. This is a highly profitable state of affairs for the Russian ruling class and can theoretically continue indefinitely. As such, the war is not likely to end in Putin being pressured to accept a peace deal, since everyone in Russia with the money and power to pressure him either stands to benefit financially and politically from eternal warfare, or has accidentally fallen out of a window after committing suicide by shooting themselves in the back of the head thirty times.
Second of all, Russia has lost ground in recent weeks, lost at least one battalion-scale engagement, and its troops are facing logistical, communication and supply issues (and have been since the beginning of the war, really). That does not mean that further Ukrainian victories are inevitable, and much of the large expanse of Russian-controlled territory they have retaken was strategically useless to Russia in the first place. The scale of Russian losses also has to be taken into account. In the war to date, Russia has won three division/army corps-scale engagements (Kherson in the first few weeks, Mariupol in April/May, Severodonetsk/Lysychansk in June/July) and mounted three further failed offensives (Kiev, Chernihiv, Sumy). Most of its losses have been in these or smaller, battalion-scale offensives. Essentially, this is the first time in the war that Russian forces are actually on the defensive—actively trying to hold territory instead of expand their reach—and past successful offensives have given them a lot of ground to lose before parity is reached.
There have been two important battles over the last few weeks, of which Russia lost one and the second is still ongoing. The loss is (Krasnyy) Lyman. This is a town (~30,000 prewar inhabitants) of great strategic importance to both sides: a higher-elevation staging point towards both Kramatorsk/Slavyansk and Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Russia had 2500-5000 troops, Ukraine ~10,000, and the bulk of Russian troops were apparently killed or captured, eliminating the equivalent of one BTG. This is important, and clears the way for a larger, division-scale offensive by Ukraine on Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. However, until that offensive is realised, it's a first step. Lyman is of little importance on its own and there are reportedly less than a thousand civilians still living there, the remainder having evacuated in advance of the Russian capture of the town back in June. The ongoing battle is, as always, Kherson. Ukrainian troops have made significant progress towards Nova Kakhovka, the true strategic linchpin of the oblast—due to the hydroelectric dam and bridge over the Dnipro as well as the Crimea water canal, plus a large concentration of Russian troops (reportedly tens of thousands) and matériel (lots of ammo and supplies). The Ukrainians are currently stalled around Snihurivka and Dudchany, two small towns that have anyway been more or less flattened by months of artillery duels. Reportedly, at least 5000 Russian troops were forced to retreat last week due to adverse weather conditions and insufficient supplies, and there may be 20,000-30,000 Ukrainian troops involved in the broader offensive, but it may be a couple more months before any significant progress is made.
Basically, a lot more has to happen before we can say that the war is actually being decided on the battlefield: at minimum Ukraine would have to retake Kherson and make significant progress on other fronts before we could examine the possibility of Russia losing the war. The loss of Kherson would make it quite possible for Russia to lose Crimea, particularly if Ukraine also makes progress on the currently-stalled Zaporizhzhia front, and would thus be significant enough that Russia could be pressured into a peace deal to avoid that fate. If Russia holds Kherson and southern Zaporizhzhia, the war remains a stalemate for the time being, even if Ukraine makes significant breakthroughs in the Donbas. At least, that's my back of the envelope analysis based on a frankly unhealthy level of interest in war history.
Quote from: amw on October 10, 2022, 02:35:53 PMI would be cautious with claims that Russia is losing the war.
Whenever I see assertions that Russia is winning or losing, I am always interested in knowing what the words "winning" and "losing" mean. For instance, the US won the war in Afghanistan, right up until it lost. Perhaps Russia withdraws all forces from not only Eastern Ukraine but also the Crimea. Perhaps it does not. Perhaps Russia stops supporting so-called separatists in Eastern Ukraine. Perhaps it does not. It seems exceedingly unlikely that Russia loses non-Crimean territory under any scenario or faces political restructuring under the direction of the West. Low intensity conflict can continue for decades, and the economic ruin imposed on Ukraine is massive and will take years at least and perhaps decades for the country to recover from, a reality made worse by the fact that Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, behind only Russia in Europe. That corruption will siphon off tens of billions of reconstruction aid. Maybe more.
Quote from: amw on October 10, 2022, 02:35:53 PM
I would be cautious with claims that Russia is losing the war. It's certainly true that both Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels (and other social media) are convinced Russia is losing...
An interesting and informative summary, thanks for posting it.
🤠😎
Russia is not able to go on a war footing. They will fight with what they have plus lots of extra bodies. Rusty museum pieces are loaded on railroad cars, something else Russia doesn't have. They don't have enough trucks. They can't supply the troops they have, let alone hundreds of thousands more. There will be no new tanks. For a time they will be able to cannibalize some of the old ones.
The Ukrainian army is growing and getting stronger. They can do what they couldn't early in the war, launch multiple offensives at once. Now it's the Russians that are outnumbered and outgunned. They are wasting resources launching attacks in Donetsk that do produce small gains. Donetsk will have to wait. The push is to the north and south.
The weather will dictate how far the Ukes can advance for the rest of the year. Time is on their side. The Ukes have a 10 week training cycle for their new soldiers. You can see the results.
I know it's become a cliche but the Ukes have more Russian tanks than the Russians, and with competent crews those old hulks are not half bad!
I think the question of winning and losing is actually quite simple on either side.
Russia can safely be considered to have lost the war if, following a peace treaty or a permanent armistice, they will have to retreat, and remain, within the borders of Russia proper, thus relinquishing their de facto control over all Ukrainian territory they grabbed since February 24, 2022.
Ukraine can safely be considered to have lost the war if, following a peace treaty or a permanent armistice, they will not regain de facto control of all territory that Russia grabbed from them since February 24, 2022.
Zelensky staying in power and Crimea remaining under de facto Russian control might be considered a trade off.
My two cents, anyway.
Quote from: Florestan on October 11, 2022, 02:10:37 AM
I think the question of winning and losing is actually quite simple on either side.
Russia can safely be considered to have lost the war if, following a peace treaty or a permanent armistice, they will have to retreat, and remain, within the borders of Russia proper, thus relinquishing their de facto control over all Ukrainian territory they grabbed since February 24, 2022.
Ukraine can safely be considered to have lost the war if, following a peace treaty or a permanent armistice, they will not regain de facto control of all territory that Russia grabbed from them since February 24, 2022.
Zelensky staying in power and Crimea remaining under de facto Russian control might be considered a trade off.
My two cents, anyway.
The problem for Putin is that any peace treaty is an humiliation. We know from history how that works out.
Leaving Crimea under de facto Russian control was the status quo before the recent invasion.
Even though Crimea, unlike the other territories has a pro-Russian majority, I think the invasion has changed things.
A continued Russian presence in Crimea woukd result in a continued Russian control of the Black Sea and a future safety threat for Ukraine and other countries. Strategically, letting Russia keep the Crimea is unwise.
Quote from: amw on October 10, 2022, 11:09:42 AM
Telegram is an instant messaging app. Since the start of the war I've followed a number of channels there in which people (mostly Ukrainian civilians) have been sharing their experiences, ways to keep one another safe, videos and reports from the front lines, and other relevant information. These are not things you see in news stories and sometimes they do not prove to be true, but they do represent, essentially, what people are talking about and the tone of public opinion, which in its own way plays a major role in shaping the outcomes of war and diplomacy.
(Some use of Google Translate is necessary since I can't speak Ukrainian or Russian lol)
Quote from: JBS on October 10, 2022, 11:17:07 AM
Telegram is an app similar to Whatsapp and Instagram. It's not as heavy on moderation and content control, so it has a history of rather nasty groups using it. But there are plenty of legitimate users, especially in Eastern Europe/ex-USSR countries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telegram_(software)
Thanks for the information about T.
PD
Quote from: Que on October 11, 2022, 02:24:14 AMLeaving Crimea under de facto Russian control was the status quo before the recent invasion.
Russia has been at war with Ukraine since 2014. It is a fiction to pretend that this year's hostilities mark the beginning of the war or a separate war. It is an enlarged war. The official stance of the US is that Russia has been engaged in war in Ukraine since 2014. From the White House on September 1, 2021: "Together, we [the United States and Ukraine] call on Russia to recommit to the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and engage genuinely in conflict resolution efforts to end the war."
Russia's strategic objective is pretty clear: prevent the West from controlling Ukraine. If Ukraine remains "neutral" - not part of NATO and not engaged in "Deepening Strategic Defense Cooperation" with the US, to use language from the White House from September 1, 2021 - then that is victory. It really is quite remarkable that people repeatedly dismiss the language used by US officials in official policy documents and in public settings. Expanding NATO to include Ukraine has been an explicit US objective since 2008. That is a direct threat to Russia.
NATO to hold nuclear exercise despite Russian warnings (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-nato-jens-stoltenberg-b922486609ba5cf10ad23bbabc0c9b9f)
Ukraine seems to be happy with the truck theory for the bridge explosion. Was it a suicidal Russian truck driver, or did someone plant an enormous explosive charge in the truck that escaped the notice of the inspectors on the bridge? The latter may be more plausible than the former. There's another problem with the truck theory, and that is the truck doesn't seem to be what exploded.
On the happiness front Ukraine would rather the Russians continue to freak out over saboteurs. Russians, they figure, will not trust the results of any investigation. It's "usual suspects" all the way down. If anyone does figure out what really happened they will not be encouraged to speak out unless by remarkable coincidence the result aligns with the official story.
I don't know how the Ukes did it, or even if they did. As crazy as it sounds, it could just be a horrible accident, something the Russian are good at. A nation of alcoholics might have trouble with bridge inspectors, too. It's best to keep an open mind.
US could assassinate Putin if Russia uses nuclear weapon in Ukraine, claims John Bolton (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/putin-assassination-russia-ukraine-bolton-b2200494.html)
The places that the Russians struck with missiles include Zaporizhzhia, which according to them is now part of Russia. Talk about mixed messages.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 11, 2022, 11:15:24 AM
I do think that not modifying one's behaviour in the face of what's happening in Ukraine seems a bit daft.
Hold your scheduled exercises when everything has calmed down: fine.
Hold them now, just because you scheduled them in a different time and situation, and it just seems a little too much poking the bear with a pointy stick and hoping it stays asleep.
The exercise "involves fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads but
does not involve any live bombs." On the other hand, Russia has been issuing nuclear threats for months, involving real missiles.
Quote from: Florestan on October 12, 2022, 01:15:58 AM
The exercise "involves fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads but does not involve any live bombs." On the other hand, Russia has been issuing nuclear threats for months, involving real missiles.
It's just an exercise. Right from the start, or even before that, Putin has been playing the "I am being provoked and I am just defending legitimate Russian interests" card.
And many have been and keep buying into that, even though Putin keeps crossing red lines.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 12, 2022, 01:41:59 AM
But relying on Putin to believe us when we say there are no live bombs, right now, in present circumstances...?
Isn't he the guy who's been issuing nuclear threat after nuclear threat this year and ordered his nukes to be put on stand by? For him to be upset by a NATO exercise is a little ironic, don't you think?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on October 12, 2022, 01:52:46 AM
Well, I don't care whether he's upset or not. I care that we conduct ourselves in such a way that we do not help mistakes happen. That's all.
Honestly, I don't disagree. I just wanted to point out Russia's / Putin's staggering hypocrisy.
Steady Ukrainian progress on the western bank of the Dnipro:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fe1ZuIYWQAgVH7R.jpg)
The strategic target is not the city of Kherson, but Nova Khakovka. A further encirclement should trigger a Russian retreat from the city.
https://wavellroom.com/2022/10/12/a-river-too-far-control-of-bridges-in-kherson-oblast/
It is instructive to watch people rationalize every form of escalatory behavior.
From WaPo: Biden scrambles to avert cracks in pro-Ukraine coalition (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/11/biden-ukraine-winter-gas-prices/)
Quote from: Todd on October 11, 2022, 04:29:00 AM
Russia's strategic objective is pretty clear: prevent the West from controlling Ukraine. If Ukraine remains "neutral" - not part of NATO and not engaged in "Deepening Strategic Defense Cooperation" with the US, to use language from the White House from September 1, 2021 - then that is victory. It really is quite remarkable that people repeatedly dismiss the language used by US officials in official policy documents and in public settings. Expanding NATO to include Ukraine has been an explicit US objective since 2008. That is a direct threat to Russia.
Cynical synecdoche. It's a threat to Putin (and other kleptocrats), not to Russia.
Quote from: Florestan on October 12, 2022, 01:48:59 AM
Isn't he the guy who's been issuing nuclear threat after nuclear threat this year and ordered his nukes to be put on stand by? For him to be upset by a NATO exercise is a little ironic, don't you think?
Performative.
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 12, 2022, 06:43:52 AM
Cynical synecdoche. It's a threat to Putin (and other kleptocrats), not to Russia.
It is a direct threat to Russia.
Quote from: Todd on October 12, 2022, 06:56:30 AM
It is a direct threat to Russia.
Todd's tell. ^ ^ ^ No answer, repeat BS.
Quote from: Todd on October 12, 2022, 06:56:30 AM
It is a direct threat to Russia.
Only if Russia thinks invading other countries is necessary for its own survival.
Quote from: JBS on October 12, 2022, 07:40:07 AM
Only if Russia thinks invading other countries is necessary for its own survival.
Ukraine is not a random country. The security implications of Ukraine for Russia are clear.
Biden vows consequences for Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ decision (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-president-biden-re-evaluating-relationship-with-saudi-after-opec-decision-2022-10-11/)
Emperor Biden is displeased, so he is expanding the economic war. Alas, his options are limited. Easing sanctions on Venezuela has been telegraphed, and of course its oil is not a perfect substitute for Saudi oil. Lifting sanctions on Iran is a no-go and a no-no in the short term. The SPR is limited, and already there are warnings about how much has already been released to the market. Some sectors of the US oil industry can ramp up production quickly, but not enough, especially if the Saudis decide to retaliate by cutting production more. This is a dilly of a pickle. I look forward to seeing what Blinken and Sullivan Biden comes up with.
Quote from: Todd on October 12, 2022, 07:46:40 AM
Ukraine is not a random country. The security implications of Ukraine for Russia are clear.
Ukraine is going to invade Russia? NATO is going to invade Russia? ;)
This is not about security, this is about geopolitical power.
Quote from: Que on October 12, 2022, 11:08:54 AMThis is not about security, this is about geopolitical power.
Security and geopolitical power are inextricably linked.
Quote from: JBS on October 12, 2022, 07:40:07 AM
Only if Russia thinks invading other countries is necessary for its own survival.
The idea that NATO is a defensive alliance rather than an offensive one would likely not be agreed with by the people of, e.g., Serbia, Somalia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Sudan, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela, Mali, Burkina Faso, Armenia, Iran, Cuba etc.
The only purpose of NATO has been to enable offensive wars, military coups, and economic chaos. This is not to say that the Russian government does not engage in its own offensive wars and military coups and sowing of economic chaos of course. But the Russian people in general have an accurate impression of what having NATO members on their borders means; the Baltic states were already considered enough of a threat in that respect.
(The current actions of the US federal reserve, offloading a potential domestic economic crisis onto countries within the US's sphere of influence, suggest that the people of Western Europe and other NATO countries should have an equally negative view of the alliance, but the US has worked very hard to ensure most people in the West are not capable of drawing these connections.)
Quote from: amw on October 12, 2022, 12:26:47 PMThe only purpose of NATO has been to enable offensive wars, military coups, and economic chaos.
I will disagree here because the continuation of and expansion of NATO also offers a perpetual reason to funnel trillions of dollars to the defense industry.
That NATO has an offensive purpose well outside its original remit was clearly demonstrated this past summer when it officially designated China a threat. Its "global partners" - including Mongolia, Japan, Columbia, and others - indicate that NATO, controlled by the US, has aggressive global ambitions. NATO itself states that "many of the challenges the Alliance faces are global and no longer bound by geography."
Quote from: amw on October 12, 2022, 12:26:47 PM(The current actions of the US federal reserve, offloading a potential domestic economic crisis onto countries within the US's sphere of influence, suggest that the people of Western Europe and other NATO countries should have an equally negative view of the alliance, but the US has worked very hard to ensure most people in the West are not capable of drawing these connections.)
I will disagree here in that the ability of the US to export inflation - which is a given in monetary economics texts, classes, articles, and policy making circles around the world - is rooted in the status of the US dollar as the primary reserve currency. Prior to the dollar becoming the dominant currency - either after WWI or WWII, depending on which analytical approach you use - the US had to suffer through and adapt to currency shocks. US policy makers knew precisely what they were doing when they shitcanned Lord Keynes' suggestion to rely on a supranational basket of currencies rather than the dollar after WWII. That was a good choice, the only choice for Americans. Leaders in other countries occasionally squawk about US power - as when the French whined/whine (rightly!) about privilège exorbitant - but they are too feeble to do anything about it, just as they are too feeble and too dependent on the US for security to do anything about NATO. I mean, sure, the Euro was supposed to be able to rival the dollar, and all that, but it was the ECB that has gone hat in hand begging to the Fed, not vice versa, and it is the ECB (and other monetarily "sovereign" countries) that must more or less work in lockstep with Fed policies - as evidenced by global central bank rate hikes. The central banks don't have to raise rates; they can watch their currencies collapse completely. It's good to be King Dollar. One day that will end. Just not this decade. Or next.
Quote from: amw on October 12, 2022, 12:26:47 PM
(The current actions of the US federal reserve, offloading a potential domestic economic crisis onto countries within the US's sphere of influence, suggest that the people of Western Europe and other NATO countries should have an equally negative view of the alliance, but the US has worked very hard to ensure most people in the West are not capable of drawing these connections.)
I agree that if the Europeans stopped taking stupid pills they could double their defense budgets and tell the US to shove it. I blame cheeseburgers and Hollywood.
Quote from: drogulus on October 12, 2022, 03:26:00 PM
I agree that if the Europeans stopped taking stupid pills they could double their defense budgets and tell the US to shove it. I blame cheeseburgers and Hollywood.
Darn those Whoppers with cheese, anyhow!
'Russian army would be annihilated in case of nuclear attack on Ukraine': Josep Borrell (https://www.thailandnews.co/2022/10/russian-army-would-be-annihilated-in-case-of-nuclear-attack-on-ukraine-josep-borrell/)
It's really rather humorous when EU leaders talk tough.
Quote from: Todd on October 12, 2022, 07:46:40 AM
Ukraine is not a random country. The security implications of Ukraine for Russia are clear.
Putin and his ilk don't even agree that Ukraine is a country, never mind a random one.
And you yourself have posted an article that follows that line, denying that Ukraine is a real country.
There were already NATO countries bordering Russia. The notion that this has anything to do with Russia disliking NATO on its doorstep is bullshit. This has to do with Russian leaders viewing Ukraine (and Belarus for that matter) as part of Russian territory.
Id est, territorial aggression.
Russia is offering to evacuate residents from Kherson. For some residents this will be good news.
Quote from: drogulus on October 13, 2022, 10:21:26 AM
Russia is offering to evacuate residents from Kherson. For some residents this will be good news.
And top brass of the Russian army and intelligence are moving their families awsy from the Crimea...
The Russian defence lines around Kherson are crumbling. This is where Putin sent (wasted) some of his best troops...
It seems that the Russians expect an direct attack on the city, but I cannot see why the Ukrainians would do that. They will encircle and bide their time.
Perhaps the Ukrainians arranged for the Russians to " intercept " local communications referring to a direct assault, resulting in a panicky and wasteful reaction...
Or, perhaps the Ukrainians have decided that the Russian forces will crumble under any sort of determined assault, and since the direct option yields better optics, that it in fact what they'll do.
It's always nice to have the momentum, giving you a wider range of options.
The Uke government is telling citizens to seek safety in the Kherson area even if it means going to Russian occupied territory. The Russian occupiers may have in mind evacuating collaborators.
Quote from: drogulus on October 14, 2022, 07:53:33 AM
The Uke government is telling citizens to seek safety in the Kherson area even if it means going to Russian occupied territory. The Russian occupiers may have in mind evacuating collaborators.
Interesting!
PD
Quote from: Que on October 13, 2022, 10:38:14 PM
The Russian defence lines around Kherson are crumbling. This is where Putin sent (wasted) some of his best troops...
It seems that the Russians expect an direct attack on the city, but I cannot see why the Ukrainians would do that. They will encircle and bide their time.
I'd expect two simultaneous Ukrainian offensives—one besieging the city from the Snihurivka/Dudchany direction, the other pushing towards Enerhodar and Melitopol from the Zaporizhzhia direction. This would lead to an effective large-scale encirclement and Ukrainian troops seem to have enough of a numerical advantage to pull it off.
(Russia hasn't tried to evacuate the latter cities though, so who knows.)
How Putin's Latest Attempts to Escalate in Ukraine Have Backfired (https://www.thebulwark.com/how-putins-latest-attempts-to-escalate-in-ukraine-have-backfired/)
Putin Could Be Replaced by More Extreme Leader, Former U.K. Spy Chief Warns (https://www.newsweek.com/putin-replaced-extreme-leader-former-uk-spy-chief-warns-1751034)
Putin is pressuring Lukashenko bigly. I don't think the Ukes are very worried about this because the Belo army is good for nothing but internal security, and Luka is probably right that they are more dangerous to the government in Minsk than to Kyiv. Even clowntators can recognize threats to themselves. In that sense meeting Putin half way is not unlike Putin meeting his ultras half way. They are both doing the "Monica missiles" thing.
Russians have shot to death Ukrainian conductor Juri Kerpatenkon for refusing to work for Russian invaders.
Quote from: 71 dB on October 15, 2022, 09:38:28 AM
Russians have shot to death Ukrainian conductor Juri Kerpatenkon for refusing to work for Russian invaders.
I know he was shot in his home. The report I read didn't say he was dead.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on October 14, 2022, 01:01:47 PM
How Putin's Latest Attempts to Escalate in Ukraine Have Backfired (https://www.thebulwark.com/how-putins-latest-attempts-to-escalate-in-ukraine-have-backfired/)
Thanks for the link to that article Karl. Quite interesting! Can't believe what I read about that Russian newswoman....shocking, maddening, and sad.
I did find this part to be pleasantly(?) ironic....not certain how else to phrase it. Maybe "bitterly ironic"? In any event, I hope that karma prevails for the Ukrainians.
"What's more, an attempt to destroy or seriously undermine Ukraine's infrastructure may run into a rather karmic obstacle: According to expatriate Russian journalist Yulia Latynina, Ukrainian power stations were mostly built under the Soviet regime in the Cold War era, and they were built with a view to withstanding a possible nuclear attack from the United States. That means disabling them permanently with conventional strikes—or even a tactical nuclear weapon—would be extremely difficult. If this is indeed the case, Putin's attempt to rebuild the Soviet empire is being obstructed by the Soviet legacy itself."PD
Russian government officials are evacuating from Kherson.
Quote from: drogulus on October 15, 2022, 10:46:39 AM
I know he was shot in his home. The report I read didn't say he was dead.
I'm afraid he really died in the incident:
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/865760.html
I have a question for US Americans.
A friend of mine says she heard signs are being erected these days in public places "all over the USA" warning of nuclear radiation, as a sort of Putin alert.
I cannot imagine this happening. The cost and the logistics would be enormous, compared to just warnings by mail of TV. And of course it would no be great for the public mood.
So what about this story? Yet another example of fake news?
Did you ask your friend where she got this "news" from?
This is not the 1st report of widespread looting by Russian troops.
Looting signals a lack of discipline and low morale... not exactly the right setting for winning a war, or even a battle.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, expects that the Russian forces will "bite its teeth into Kherson", while they themselves are engaged in looting in anticipation of escape. That's according to Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the head of the President's Office, who made the comment on Twitter, Ukrinform reports.
"Putin expects that ru-military will be fighting to the last for Kherson so that the leader can 'save its face.' But they are busy: dividing and taking away the loot, waiting for escape. When looting becomes part of the system, there is no room for discipline and fighting spirit," the adviser wrote.
Quote from: SimonNZ on October 15, 2022, 11:37:19 PM
Did you ask your friend where she got this "news" from?
My guess is this idea of these signs "all over the USA" was thought up by some guy living in a much smaller country in Europe, where this would logistically doable. And then put up on some place online, perhaps with a picture of some such sign from the 1950s as proof.
Quote from: 71 dB on October 15, 2022, 09:38:28 AM
Russians have shot to death Ukrainian conductor Juri Kerpatenkon for refusing to work for Russian invaders.
😭 >:(
No words can express how despicable this act was.
And what a brave and honorable man he was.
PD
Quote from: Herman on October 15, 2022, 10:33:22 PM
I have a question for US Americans.
A friend of mine says she heard signs are being erected these days in public places "all over the USA" warning of nuclear radiation, as a sort of Putin alert.
I cannot imagine this happening. The cost and the logistics would be enormous, compared to just warnings by mail of TV. And of course it would no be great for the public mood.
So what about this story? Yet another example of fake news?
Yes, fake news.
:o 8)
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on October 16, 2022, 06:01:34 AM
Yes, fake news.
:o 8)
Gosh, it's almost as if (to borrow/adapt
Ernie's term) the preponderance of fake news comes from the TrumPutinistas ....
Hungary is planning to ratify Nato memberships of Sweden and Finland in October 24. $:)
Quote from: 71 dB on October 16, 2022, 09:37:09 AM
Hungary is planning to ratify Nato memberships of Sweden and Finland in October 24. $:)
I had wondered whether or not that would go through there since the POB seems to be cozying up to Putin--while still trying to keep polite relations with the West.
PD
Quote from: 71 dB on October 16, 2022, 09:37:09 AM
Hungary is planning to ratify Nato memberships of Sweden and Finland in October 24. $:)
If you want to stay on good terms with your new friends, don't invade Russia.
Quote from: drogulus on October 16, 2022, 06:56:59 PM
If you want to stay on good terms with your new friends, don't invade Russia.
It can be so hard to know where Russia
is these days. The border keeps moving.
A good conference call recording from Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio's investment firm) with Daniel Yergin and Angela Stent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WpfdtTQlwU
Ms Stent maintains, contrary to most corporate press pronouncements, that regular Russians are not really impacted by sanctions right now, though next year will be different. Mr and Mrs Yergin offer a more or less standard overall view on the war.
When it comes to next year (and after), it's not just Russia that will feel the sting of economic warfare:
European energy crisis likely to get worse as gas supplies remain tight (https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/995470/european-energy-crisis-likely-to-get-worse-as-gas-supplies-remain-tight-995470.html)
Germany forecasts 2023 recession as energy crisis bites (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20221012-germany-forecasts-2023-recession-as-energy-crisis-bites)
Recession, deindustrialization, expanded strikes in Ukrainian cities, escalation: nope, no reason to pursue negotiations.
India is doing a thing. Indian banks are not going to expose themselves to secondary sanctions early next year, so they won't participate in the rupee/ruble exchange system for oil purchases Russia wants. They want to keep their dollar/Euro business going unhindered, which is vastly more important. Russia is in a weak position, selling oil at a discount not for profit but to keep their production facilities working. They don't have enough storage to sit on the oil, so they might have to shut down at the well head, and that would be a disaster.
The international ruble trade is sparse and no one wants a currency that fluctuates too much. Contracts are for dollars/Euros/yen for a reason. It's not because they are reserve currencies, it's because a stable and liquid currency from a big buyer of the worlds output is what it means for a currency to be reserve. China and Russia have weak internal markets. They sustain themselves by hiring themselves out to the strong buyers of the world. Countries or regions that generate a high proportion of their wealth by internal trade can withstand shocks that exporters can't.
At some point the US will push Ukraine to negotiate. It depends on how far the Ukes can go over the winter. It's certain they will be better equipped for a winter war than the Russians. OTOH a counteroffensive in winter conditions will be difficult and that would tilt in favor of a hunkered down Russian line.
4 Dead After Russian Military Jet Crashes Into Own Citizens
Quote from: drogulus on October 16, 2022, 06:56:59 PM
If you want to stay on good terms with your new friends, don't invade Russia.
I don't understand what you mean. Nobody is invading Russia to my knowledge.
Ukraine says 30% of its power plants destroyed in last eight days
Zelenskiy says attacks on civilian infrastructure leave no space for negotiations with Putin regime (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/18/ukraine-says-30-of-its-power-plants-destroyed-in-last-eight-days)
Quote from: 71 dB on October 17, 2022, 02:56:30 PM
I don't understand what you mean. Nobody is invading Russia to my knowledge.
I'm pretty sure you're right.
(http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/evil.gif)
The Nord Stream pipelines don't get front page or lead story coverage in the US anymore, but some stories have been published. First, whodunnit?
Sweden won't share Nord Stream investigation findings with Russia - PM (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-wont-share-nord-stream-investigation-findings-with-russia-pm-2022-10-10/)
Sweden shuns formal joint investigation of Nord Stream leak, citing national security (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-shuns-formal-joint-investigation-nord-stream-leak-citing-national-2022-10-14/)
Obviously, it was Russia. I mean, come on. The next story proves it beyond a reasonable doubt:
Putin offers Europe gas through Nord Stream 2
The Russian leader offered to resume gas supplies through parts of the pipelines that weren't damaged by explosions last month. He also suggested an alternative through Turkey. (https://www.dw.com/en/putin-offers-europe-gas-through-nord-stream-2-germany-declines/a-63416138)
It's all quiet on the southern front......too quiet.
So now it looks like Russia wants to talk. I think it's like "Mo-om, make him stop hitting me!".
The US is not ready to bail Russia out. In time, it will.
McCarthy Warns GOP May Cut Back Ukraine Aid If Party Wins House (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/mccarthy-warns-gop-may-cut-back-ukraine-aid-if-party-wins-house)
Elections have consequences.
Politico, in its EU version (https://www.politico.eu/), has named Pootie Poot #1 on the Green 28 list for 2023.
Class of 2023. (https://www.politico.eu/list/green-28-class-of-2023-the-ranking/vladimir-putin/)
Rationalize that.
Russia tightens Ukraine energy squeeze; launches evacuation (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-europe-business-moscow-e45db58f408947b85f89652fcc4ef39a)
The adventures of Vlad the Environmentalist.
Quote from: Todd on October 18, 2022, 12:20:25 PM
McCarthy Warns GOP May Cut Back Ukraine Aid If Party Wins House (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/mccarthy-warns-gop-may-cut-back-ukraine-aid-if-party-wins-house)
Elections have consequences.
Hardly a shocker, and there's no " may " about it.
McCarthy is ( afaict ) still sucking Trump's c**k, and Trump is still Putin's bitch.
Quote from: LKB on October 20, 2022, 10:25:14 AM
Hardly a shocker, and there's no " may " about it.
McCarthy is ( afaict ) still sucking Trump's c**k, and Trump is still Putin's bitch.
GMG is home to the most sophisticated analysis on the internet.
Elections have consequences.
Look at that. Even Todd can get it right, if the res is plain enough.
Rolling blackouts start in Kyiv as Ukrainians urged to save power (https://www.ft.com/content/57fdfbb0-647d-4a22-995f-b33c67d830fd)
Some long-term forecasts predict that the Ukrainian winter may not be especially cold. That should make it easier for regular Ukrainian people to tough it out. I mean, except for the elderly, the sick, and children. But whatever, no negotiations.
Quote from: LKB on October 20, 2022, 10:25:14 AM
Hardly a shocker, and there's no " may " about it.
In the US support for Ukraine is high and includes taxpayers. If McCarthy becomes Speaker he'll face pushback from his own caucus. Biden will get the aid he wants. A more interesting question is what that will be. I can see circumstances where US asserts greater leverage over Ukraine to get them to settle for less than a whole loaf. The US prefers an intact Russia.
Ukraine is Terrified About What Will Happen if Republicans Win the Midterms (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-terrified-about-what-will-happen-if-republicans-win-midterms-1753243)
Oh noes!
Maybe European countries could do their part to defend Europe.
jk - everyone knows that ain't gonna happen.
I think Ukraine doesn't want a return of the TrumPutinists and associates Repubs with that sect. Note that McCarthy mentioned "blank check", so he's got plenty of wiggle room, which I think he'll need.
Repubs have been fairly quiet because they don't have a separate position on Ukraine in substance. If Biden cuts aid they'll complain, and we see that as aid package after aid package is sent you hear not a peep about taxpayers. I have heard about the 976th attempt to cut Social Security in a nice way, which is oddly reassuring.
This concerns me. I don't regularly follow Italian politics, so what can you all add? This is from the BBC:
"Italy's far-right leader Giorgia Meloni has formally accepted the job of forming the next government at the head of the country's most right-wing administration since World War Two.
She was greeted by President Sergio Mattarella, less than a month after her Brothers of Italy party won elections.
Ms Meloni and her allies saw him earlier, and declared they were ready to govern "as quickly as possible".
Italy's first female PM and her cabinet will be sworn in on Saturday.
She takes over from a very different leader in Mario Draghi who was brought in to run a country struggling to emerge from the effects of coronavirus and economic crisis.
Nato member Italy is the EU's third biggest economy and Ms Meloni has sought to assure its Western allies that nothing will change in its foreign policy.
She made the short trip to the presidential palace in a white Fiat 500 car, before a private meeting with the president that lasted well over an hour. She then announced who would be in her cabinet.
Her government will include Matteo Salvini's far-right League and the right-of-centre Forza Italia of Silvio Berlusconi - the 86-year-old former prime minister who for days has been at the centre of a row surrounding two leaked recordings that underlined his pro-Putin views and shook the coalition."
PD
Inflation protests across Europe threaten political turmoil (//http://)
Maybe flaring tempers can affordably warm the masses this winter.
U.S. liberal Democrats urge Biden to seek negotiated Ukraine settlement (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-liberal-democrats-urge-biden-seek-negotiated-ukraine-settlement-2022-10-24/)
Quote from: Todd on October 24, 2022, 02:37:59 PM
U.S. liberal Democrats urge Biden to seek negotiated Ukraine settlement (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-liberal-democrats-urge-biden-seek-negotiated-ukraine-settlement-2022-10-24/)
Wishful thinking.
Hungary did not ratify on Monday as claimed by some sources, but they have promised to do so this year. :P
As for Türkeya goes, the US probably uses carrots and sticks.
Quote from: Que on October 24, 2022, 11:25:48 PM
Wishful thinking.
It's not even that, really. It's posturing a few weeks before an election. That written, with at least one house of Congress likely to switch parties, with the likely new Speaker saying that Republicans will likely reduce or eliminate additional appropriations beyond the ~$67 billion already allocated, with some Republicans in both houses questioning the war, and with some Democrats now willing to publicly question the war, pressure will start building on the President to change course. The war is a secondary concern
at most for almost all Americans - it's not even a material issue in the elections - it has not enjoyed lead story priority in the mainstream press for months, and a growing percentage of Americans want to reduce commitments to Ukraine, though most still support generic forms of economic and military aid. Warmongers the world over, IRL and online, oppose a negotiated settlement, but eventually that is what will bring the war to an end. I get it, Ukraine has to serve as a killing field for a little while longer before a settlement will be reached.
No, 'Russiagate' Wasn't the Hoax That Team Trump Claims It Was (https://www.thebulwark.com/no-russiagate-wasnt-the-hoax-that-team-trump-claims-it-was/)
From WaPo: Ukrainians say U.S. Democrats pressing for peace talks don't get Putin (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/25/ukraine-pessure-liberals-negotiation-putin/)
The opening sentence more or less exposes the growing problem: "Members of Ukraine's political elite rejected demands by some congressional Democrats for negotiations with Russia to end the war, saying this was "not a viable option," after a group of liberals called on President Biden to push Kyiv for direct talks with Moscow."
Ukrainian elites do not get to set US policy; the tail does not wag the dog.
Fortunately, there is good news contained in the article: "But the letter inevitably adds to growing anxiety in Kyiv about maintaining crucial financial and military support from Washington, especially if Republicans regain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. Some Republican leaders have signaled an intent to review U.S. support for Ukraine."
Ukraine is wise to stay out of US party politicking.
Mongers of all stripes should understand that Poland is the most important actor on the continent after Russia and Ukraine. The Poles have an obvious interest in continuing their support for training and supply of the Ukrainians. Russia has to seriously consider Polish intervention if they decide to invade western Ukraine to interdict the Uke supply lines.
The Poles are building the most powerful army in Europe. The Germans, bless their still slightly pacifistic hearts, can't match them. Fortunately for Germany, they are allied with the Poles, kind of the point of the alliance since it began. You keep the Russians out and the Germans in, the current variation on the original theme.
Progressives retract Ukraine letter to Biden after uproar (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-europe-congress-government-and-politics-e474bfd7439a57e7923aa1d1b43c8682)
The Democratic Party is the Party of War. (That's not new, of course.) More Ukrainians will die as a result. Oh well.
Quote from: Que on October 25, 2022, 01:27:43 PM
So Ukrainians are killed by Russian bullets, rockets and bombs, but actually the Democratic Party is behind all of it.
Oh, and of course the Ukrainians themselves, and their European allies... Did I forget anyone?
Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracy theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting to his posts. If we stop doing that he has no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. The sooner we start doing that the better.
Quote from: Harry on October 25, 2022, 01:32:30 PM
Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracies theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting on his post. If we stop doing that he as no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. the sooner we start doing that the better.
Right you are. Removed my post.
Quote from: Harry on October 25, 2022, 01:32:30 PM
Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracy theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting to his posts. If we stop doing that he has no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. The sooner we start doing that the better.
Incorrect across the board. I should like to see the posts I have written that support conspiracy theories. Also, I should like to know which Trump doctrines I live by.
Quote from: Que on October 25, 2022, 01:35:43 PM
Right you are. Removed my post.
In response to your deleted post, the US will continue to send financial support and military hardware to Ukraine and will not pursue settlement negotiations. The war will be needlessly prolonged because of US actions and Ukrainian civilians will die as a result. Russians will kill Ukrainians and Ukrainians will kill Russians. Were it only soldiers dying, it would matter even less.
Germany can reopen its nuclear plants and keep them running through the winter. Are they warmongers enough to do it?
They also have a few coal burning plants they can use. A deal with Canada for gas is in the works.
The US can talk and send weapons at the same time, and in fact it's the best way to make the talks productive. I recommend a generous portion of sticks with the carrot.
Quote from: drogulus on October 25, 2022, 10:37:48 AM
Mongers of all stripes should understand that Poland is the most important actor on the continent after Russia and Ukraine. The Poles have an obvious interest in continuing their support for training and supply of the Ukrainians.
If I were Poland I would perhaps think twice about supplying weapons and military training to a nation whose political elite regards itself as the heirs of the OUN (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Ukrainian_Nationalists). Especially given that the current war has seen the empowerment of the "Poroshenkoites" at the expense of the "Zelenskyites". Russia is not the only potential threat to Poland after all. But I suppose it's none of my business really.
Quote from: amw on October 25, 2022, 05:57:42 PM
If I were Poland I would perhaps think twice about supplying weapons and military training to a nation whose political elite regards itself as the heirs of the OUN (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Ukrainian_Nationalists). Especially given that the current war has seen the empowerment of the "Poroshenkoites" at the expense of the "Zelenskyites". Russia is not the only potential threat to Poland after all. But I suppose it's none of my business really.
So you think the Ukraine, after whatever happens in the current war, might turn around and attack a member of NATO?
Quote from: Harry on October 25, 2022, 01:32:30 PM
Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracy theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting to his posts. If we stop doing that he has no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. The sooner we start doing that the better.
I disagree. His view is serious and thinking it can be waved away is a mistake if you really believe he's wrong in some consequential ways. People are consistently upset with him around here; often I also don't buy into what he's saying. But I never get the feeling he's without facts and arguments. I also think it's a good idea to engage with a serious counter-view. Most of the things he's said on the last couple of pages really do need review. They probably need constant engagement. Should there be pressure to negotiate? What is the cost of war? Etc. I'm surprised to see Russia biting the dust but also worried about what happens next. Maybe It'd be good now if a chastened Russia comes to the table and everyone tries look at what their real interests are in this conflict. Maybe allowing Putin to salvage himself would be better than driving him to the edge. There never is a magic answer but at least now everyone can take a victory lap, as it were, leaving aside the mayhem that is there.
If not, why not?
Quote from: JBS on October 25, 2022, 06:09:27 PM
So you think the Ukraine, after whatever happens in the current war, might turn around and attack a member of NATO?
I'll put it this way: if the war ends tomorrow, Ukraine will be left with a massive economic crisis, heavily degraded infrastructure, massive numbers of overseas refugees and internally displaced persons, a significantly depleted military, and a central government with a limited ability to enforce its will. For every month the war drags on, the costs of rebuilding become higher, and with economic recession in the West, there's a low chance of the country receiving as much foreign aid as it would need (or of this foreign aid not being largely embezzled by corrupt officials, etc). Even if the legitimate Ukrainian government survives the postwar period, I can't imagine keeping groups like Right Sector in line will be its main priority, and once the patriotic fervor of glorious victory and/or tragic, heroic defeat dies down, they'll have a lot of disaffected people to recruit from. There are already reported cases of discrimination and prejudice against Ukrainian refugees in Poland. It would not be hard for a dedicated actor to fully reopen those old wounds.
In general, Western countries have a proven track record of providing weapons and training to extremist political formations for the purposes of fighting the Russians/Soviets/Chinese/Iranians/etc and then having this blow up in their faces (sometimes literally) once the Russians/Soviets/Chinese/Iranians are no longer in the picture.
But again, who knows. Maybe we know what we're doing
this time.
Quote from: milk on October 25, 2022, 09:13:42 PM
I disagree. His view is serious and thinking it can be waved away is a mistake if you really believe he's wrong in some consequential ways. People are consistently upset with him around here;
It's not that much
what Todd says*, but
how he says it that it's insufferable for most people. His phrasing, his style of arguing, his superciliousness, his snide one-liners, his playing the smart-arse (the latest example being in the Liz Truss thread) --- all are calculated to trigger the ire of the opponent and made him react in anger; said reaction is then treated the same way, thus prolonging a vicious circle in which he openly revels. This is the very definition of trolling.
*although, to see someone, who repeatedly and emphatically stated that the fate of Ukraine is of no concern whatsoever to him and he wouldn't care even if Russians nuke it because it won't affect him in the least, expressing now great concern about the lives of Ukrainian civilians smells hypocrisy from afar.
Quote from: milk on October 25, 2022, 09:13:42 PMI disagree.
Most GMG posters want an echo chamber and they are only ever comfortable with opinions and writing styles that comply with their narrow worldviews. This is very common on the internets.
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2022, 12:59:08 AM*although, to see someone, who repeatedly and emphatically stated that the fate of Ukraine is of no concern whatsoever to him and he wouldn't care even if Russians nuke it because it won't affect him in the least, expressing now great concern about the lives of Ukrainian civilians smells hypocrisy from afar.
Then you misunderstand my posts, which may be partly attributable to English not being your first language. I do not care about the Ukrainian people, or the Russian people, or the Romanian people, for that matter, any more than the Yemeni, the Syrians, the Congolese, etc. GMG posters in general moralize rather a lot, and yet, rather than emphasizing an approach that brings cessation to war and hence the suffering of the Ukrainian people, they openly and proudly support war and death and destruction. Non-American posters amplify their obvious hypocrisy by demanding that Americans pay for it.
Quote from: amw on October 25, 2022, 11:01:59 PMI'll put it this way: if the war ends tomorrow, Ukraine will be left with a massive economic crisis, heavily degraded infrastructure, massive numbers of overseas refugees and internally displaced persons, a significantly depleted military, and a central government with a limited ability to enforce its will. For every month the war drags on, the costs of rebuilding become higher, and with economic recession in the West, there's a low chance of the country receiving as much foreign aid as it would need (or of this foreign aid not being largely embezzled by corrupt officials, etc).
Russia has already achieved some long-term war aims, which is one of the reasons why repeated proclamations about potential victory of Ukraine are basically pointless. People should remember that Zelensky begged for $750 billion in reconstruction aid months ago. The number is much higher now, and given Ukraine's well-publicized systemic corruption, any aid that pours in will go first to lining pockets of righteous allies. Swathes of Ukraine have been demolished and will not be rebuilt for decades. Even if Ukraine becomes a partner of The West, it is hobbled. That can serve the Russians and The West well. Ukraine is a useful killing field, as this entire year has demonstrated.
Quote from: amw on October 25, 2022, 11:01:59 PMMaybe we know what we're doing this time.
Probably.
Quote from: Harry on October 25, 2022, 01:32:30 PM
Todd is simply a provocateur and a troll, who believes in conspiracy theories. He is a fervent believer in the Trump doctrine and lives by it. And everyone is reacting to his posts. If we stop doing that he has no fertile soil to put the seeds of division in. The sooner we start doing that the better.
I have had Todd on ignore for a long time now and it has definitely eased the mental burden. I only get a glimpse into his twisted mind when someone quotes his posts. On non-political threads I may even look up his post behind the curtain of ignore. If it is about music or audio gear etc. he is just a harmless regular Joe, but when it is about politics, he is most in-Todd-lerable Tucker Carlson of GMG. :P
Quote from: 71 dB on October 26, 2022, 04:18:57 AM
I have had Todd on ignore for a long time now and it has definitely eased the mental burden. I only get a glimpse into his twisted mind when someone quotes his posts. On non-political threads I may even look up his post behind the curtain of ignore. If it is about music or audio gear etc. he is just a harmless regular Joe, but when it is about politics, he is most in-Todd-lerable Tucker Carlson of GMG. :P
There are several endearing traits of GMG. One is the public display of outrage. They are common, and they include public announcements of departure, account deletion, and proclamations of use of the ignore feature. These are all the more endearing because the people who engage in these behaviors purport to be highly educated, as well as virtuous.
The idea that half a dozen anonymous posters on an internet board are warmongers because of whom the war in Ukraine goes on when it could otherwise stop is preposterous. Equally preposterous is the idea that the selfsame half a dozen anonymous posters on an internet board could, by their words and deeds, bring about the cessation of the war. Nothing that is being said here has the slightest influence on the course of events, which is decided elsewhere and by other people.
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2022, 05:03:57 AMThe idea that half a dozen anonymous posters on an internet board are warmongers because of whom the war in Ukraine goes on when it could otherwise stop is preposterous.
This is incorrect.
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2022, 05:03:57 AMEqually preposterous is the idea that the selfsame half a dozen anonymous posters on an internet board could, by their words and deeds, bring about the cessation of the war.
This is correct. It does raise interesting questions about why people continue to virtue signal about the war, and whether the same people have taken the few practical steps they can to help people in Ukraine - eg, giving to charitable organizations or purchasing Ukrainian war bonds. (I have not and will not.) I suppose people geographically close to Ukraine could also take in displaced Ukrainians. I suspect that has not occurred, but maybe.
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2022, 12:59:08 AM
It's not that much what Todd says*, but how he says it that it's insufferable for most people. His phrasing, his style of arguing, his superciliousness, his snide one-liners, his playing the smart-arse (the latest example being in the Liz Truss thread) --- all are calculated to trigger the ire of the opponent and made him react in anger; said reaction is then treated the same way, thus prolonging a vicious circle in which he openly revels. This is the very definition of trolling.
*although, to see someone, who repeatedly and emphatically stated that the fate of Ukraine is of no concern whatsoever to him and he wouldn't care even if Russians nuke it because it won't affect him in the least, expressing now great concern about the lives of Ukrainian civilians smells hypocrisy from afar.
I understand what you mean. He can be very abrasive. Or maybe he ALWAYS is and it's obvious he enjoys it. Don't you wonder what the (anonymous?) people here are like in-person? I've got really abrasive friends in my life. One of my friends seems to be really liked by no one; I'm not saying Todd is that way. This friend of mine always has something interesting to say though. Maybe because I don't have that kind of confidence, I kind of admire people who seemed to be past bothering. I've always been full of self-doubt and nerves. Anyway, as long as someone isn't hateful, I find the person who has the least popular view to be interesting. Sometimes.
Quote from: drogulus on October 25, 2022, 10:37:48 AM
The Poles are building the most powerful army in Europe.
This is a bit of a stretch. AFAIK, the most powerful army in (continental) Europe, and the only one with nukes, is the French army. The second most powerful is the Finnish army --- non-nuclear but top-notch in military technique and training as well as in sheer manpower. Poland might well be on their way to the third position.
(https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/20418.jpeg)
Quote from: milk on October 26, 2022, 06:53:27 AM
Don't you wonder what the (anonymous?) people here are like in-person?
I believe that many (most) people here who are "abrasive" are actually rather nice, kind and likeable in-person, Todd included --- and I'm sure that, should I meet him in real life, we'd get along alright. Heck, I too have been "abrasive" and I still am sometimes. The problem with internet boards is anonymity and lack of face-to-face contact (for which emoticons are a very pale and usually ineffective substitute) --- they encourage, especially in temperamental people and/or people who in real life are actually peaceful, even shy, a behaviour which they would not be capable of in real life interactions. Add to this the stressful lives we all had already been living no matter where in the world even before this bloody (literally as well as figuratively) war started --- and there you have a recipe for aggressive behaviour, bitter misunderstandings and acid recriminations. The only way to break this vicious circle would be to stop posting here altogether --- which is to say there is no way to break it. :D
I am sure that each and every one of us, Todd, you, I and everybody else would want to see the war end as soon as possible, but alas! it is not in our power to stop it. All we can do is exactly what we do: comment on the ongoing developments according to one's own worldview.
And speaking of ongoing developments, I haven't been following them for quite a while. I gave up watching TV and reading newspapers as it only made me nervous, anxious and bitter. There's nothing I can do to stop the madness but at the very least I can stop the madness from affecting me. YMMV.
Très bien, well said and written, Andrei.
Merci beaucoup,
Peter
Quote from: pjme on October 26, 2022, 07:42:04 AM
Très bien, well said and written, Andrei.
Merci beaucoup,
Peter
Amitiés, Pierre! ;)
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2022, 06:58:37 AM
This is a bit of a stretch. AFAIK, the most powerful army in (continental) Europe, and the only one with nukes, is the French army. The second most powerful is the Finnish army --- non-nuclear but top-notch in military technique and training as well as in sheer manpower. Poland might well be on their way to the third position.
They are building the most powerful army in Europe and are only half way there. It would not surprise me if they built up more. It's a bad neighborhood.
It also wouldn't surprise me if the Finns came in second when they bulk up all the way to "please don't invade Russia" levels. A long border with Russia is like the Platonic ideal of a bad neighborhood.
Britain and France spend lots of money on deterrence weapons, a noble and necessary thing. Poland and Finland have fighting armies on account of the bad neighborhoods they are in.
From Newsweek: Russia Is Europe's Problem, Not America's. It's Time for the U.S. to Cut Europe Loose (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-europes-problem-not-americas-its-time-us-cut-europe-loose-opinion-1754638)
Now this is an opening sentence: "There is an uncomfortable truth that almost nobody in Washington wants to address and it's this: The biggest foreign threat to the Unites States is not Russia and it's not China. It's the European Union and its member states."
If the once venerable publication keeps this up, I may just have to subscribe. (jk - I'd more likely subscribe to the Gray Lady first)
Quote from: Newsweek
"The biggest foreign threat to the Unites States is not Russia and it's not China. It's the European Union and its member states."
The biggest bullshit, bollocks and nonsense on stilts I've ever read, period.
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2022, 12:42:52 PM
The biggest bullshit, bollocks and nonsense on stilts I've ever read, period.
That was probably fed to them by Russian trolls.
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2022, 12:42:52 PM
The biggest bullshit, bollocks and nonsense on stilts I've ever read, period.
I disagree a little. The article does make some good points, though it's strange that it doesn't actually make a case for cutting Europe loose or that European over-reliance on the US will morph into a threat. Would that be a French threat, a German threat or a British threat, or will they gang up on America? The author himself says these rival states only come together because of the US overwatch.
Quote from: Todd on October 26, 2022, 07:07:31 AM
(https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/20418.jpeg)
Japanese young people are always shocked to learn Japan is a top military spender or is a powerful country by every metric. They start out every conversation insisting they are meek people living in a small meek country.
Quote from: milk on October 26, 2022, 03:34:23 PM
Japanese young people are always shocked to learn Japan is a top military spender or is a powerful country by every metric. They start out every conversation insisting they are meek people living in a small meek country.
And luckily, Russia really ain't that much ....
Quote from: Todd on October 26, 2022, 06:12:45 AM
This is incorrect.
This is correct. It does raise interesting questions about why people continue to virtue signal about the war, and whether the same people have taken the few practical steps they can to help people in Ukraine - eg, giving to charitable organizations or purchasing Ukrainian war bonds. (I have not and will not.) I suppose people geographically close to Ukraine could also take in displaced Ukrainians. I suspect that has not occurred, but maybe.
At least one GMG member has personally done so. He is one of those who also have the good sense to not participate in these discussions.
Quote from: Todd on October 26, 2022, 07:07:31 AM
(https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/20418.jpeg)
That was in January 2022. One suspects the January 2023 version will show at least one revision.
Quote from: JBS on October 26, 2022, 05:11:44 PMAt least one GMG member has personally done so.
That is commendable.
Quote from: JBS on October 26, 2022, 05:13:42 PM
That was in January 2022. One suspects the January 2023 version will show at least one revision.
What would that be?
Quote from: drogulus on August 31, 2022, 08:45:08 AM
I'm now at war with Russia, via 10 shares of LMT (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT?p=LMT&.tsrc=fin-srch).
My most warlike move is donating to Nova Ukraine (https://novaukraine.org/). They offer humanitarian aid.
I'm glad the subject came up again.
Just to be clear, I made no claim about the total military spending of Poland, which doesn't even a little sail the ocean seas or field ICBMs.
Quote from: Todd on October 26, 2022, 06:46:38 PM
That is commendable.
What would that be?
Russia will go down a notch or two because of the financial stability factor (if nothing else), and China will go up. Given that China is actively working to improve its armed forces, it would probably have gotten ahead of Russia even if there was no war--the stated difference there for 1/22 was .001. [A tenth of a percent of what? Warmongerers?]
Quote from: Florestan on October 26, 2022, 07:49:40 AM
Amitiés, Pierre! ;)
Salut Andrei,
cele mai bune salutări din Olanda unde locuiesc acum. Mă gândesc acum la Dunăre și la pelikanii de pe lacul Fortuna...
și de a lua masa cu tine în București.
Toate cele bune!
Și să ne rugăm pentru o lume mai pașnică.
Petru
(I hope Google translate didn't mess up.)
Quote from: pjme on October 27, 2022, 02:13:23 AM
Salut Andrei,
cele mai bune salutări din Olanda unde locuiesc acum. Mă gândesc acum la Dunăre și la pelikanii de pe lacul Fortuna...
și de a lua masa cu tine în București.
Toate cele bune!
Și să ne rugăm pentru o lume mai pașnică.
Petru
(I hope Google translate didn't mess up.)
I'm actually surprised by how good, though not perfect, the transation is. Usually, it indeed messes up. :D
Thank you. Best wishes and kind regards to you as well.
Quote from: JBS on October 26, 2022, 07:46:32 PMRussia will go down a notch or two because of the financial stability factor (if nothing else), and China will go up.
Perhaps China becomes more powerful in relative terms. I suspect it was in January of this year. I doubt Russia will be a lesser power than India next year, but maybe. Russia's immense nuclear arsenal does impart significant power and does act as a limit to action by other countries. This may very well be the basis for the belief that if Russia is not stopped now in Ukraine, despite its exceedingly well publicized failures in the field, it will steamroll Europe and rule the continent in short order. Some people actually believe that nonsense.
But I must confess, after reading that very scary assessment by the Heritage Foundation, giving the US military its first ever "weak" rating, that the US could cede the top slot to China and run the risk of being conquered before the end of the decade. The peril is real.
I have no basis for thinking Todd is a nice person to interact with in real life. I cannot think of a bigger wanker. Which is quite a different quality to "abrasive".
He's proud to set expectations low, too.
Russians Accuse Ukraine of Nazism—But Look at How Russian Propagandists Talk (https://www.thebulwark.com/russians-accuse-ukraine-of-nazism-but-look-at-how-russian-propagandists-talk/)
Nuclear weapons are good at deterring the use of nuclear weapons by an adversary state. Their role in conventional warfare is not easy to figure.
These weapons require a doctrine that's largely transparent. The scenario in Doctor Strangelove illustrates the problem nicely. One can only conclude that the doctrine itself must be clearly understood by opponents as part of the effectiveness of the strategy. The other essential part is a counterstrike ability which makes a first strike out of the question.
Russia does have an unstated premise in their calculations, but we know about it. It's that Russian nukes are not expected to work well. They will miss the silos, or not detonate, or get shot down. That doesn't reduce their deterrence value, though, and that's the critical task.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on October 27, 2022, 10:06:13 AM
Russians Accuse Ukraine of Nazism—But Look at How Russian Propagandists Talk (https://www.thebulwark.com/russians-accuse-ukraine-of-nazism-but-look-at-how-russian-propagandists-talk/)
But you know, the real warmongers are on GMG, not on RT. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on October 27, 2022, 10:22:57 AM
But you know, the real warmongers are on GMG, not on RT. ;D
So all the best sources say!
S. Korea is supplying tanks and self propelled artillery to Poland. It's a huge deal for hundreds of sexy machines. (http://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/evil.gif)
Quote from: Florestan on October 27, 2022, 10:22:57 AM
But you know, the real warmongers are on GMG, not on RT. ;D
Your sentence should read:
But you know, some of the real warmongers are on GMG, as well as on RT, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, and many other corporate press outlets.
I'm here to help.
Natural gas prices are dropping and European gas storage is at 90%+ capacity. I think these must be related.
Nuclear threat threatening is seen for what it is, energy blackmail isn't working, destroying infrastructure and killing civilians didn't work in Hamburg and Tokyo and I haven't seen anything to persuade me that Ukrainian people are about to decide they are Russians after all and freely provide their washing machines and microwave ovens to their brothers.
I don't think winter will change the course of the war except to slow down the Ukrainian advance. The Ukes will probably never have an army big enough for a counteroffensive on all fronts. What they do is use their superior intelligence to locate weak spots and attack there, forcing the Russians to pull back adjacent units to restore a defensible line and avoid encirclement. Winter means the process slows down, unless the poorly equipped Russians decide it's not so good to fight warmly clothed troops with night vision goggles while freezing in the dark.
Russia says it will suspend UN-brokered Ukraine export deal (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-government-and-politics-3b563bd6f79f815c7e9f33505dd25334)
At the end of all of this,
will come about the creation of the Great Anglo-Hungarian Empire,
which will incorporate great swaths of continental Europe, including Transylvania.
I will crown myself when the time comes ... oh, yesssssss ....
I found this story to be encouraging: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/29/europe/russian-army-ukraine-blake-cec/index.html
PD
Quote from: drogulus on October 29, 2022, 09:23:26 AM
I don't think winter will change the course of the war except to slow down the Ukrainian advance. [...] Winter means the process slows down, unless the poorly equipped Russians decide it's not so good to fight warmly clothed troops with night vision goggles while freezing in the dark.
It seems that once the wet season passes and the mud freezes over, a well fed and equipped army wil have an important advantage. Severall European allies but notably Estonia, Lithuania and Germany have provided Ukraine with modern winter uniforms.
Quote from: Todd on October 29, 2022, 09:31:37 AM
Russia says it will suspend UN-brokered Ukraine export deal (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-government-and-politics-3b563bd6f79f815c7e9f33505dd25334)
That will make Putin more friends in Africa and the Middle East.
Quote from: Que on October 29, 2022, 11:44:42 PM
That will make Putin more friends in Africa and the Middle East.
It actually might. Press reports from non-Eurocentric outlets tend to be far more skeptical of US and European motives and actions during this war. Rightly. Russia is not the international pariah portrayed in the western corporate press. The Russian government will likely work with governments in a variety of countries to craft the appropriate narrative. Precisely like how the US government works with governments in a variety of countries to craft the appropriate narrative. Information warfare/propaganda is a critical component of this war.
From Cambridge: War in Ukraine widens global divide in public attitudes toward US, China and Russia: Report (https://phys.org/news/2022-10-war-ukraine-widens-global-attitudes.html)
Russia's take on who done blew up them pipelines: Russia says UK navy blew up Nord Stream, London denies involvement (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-british-navy-personnel-blew-up-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-2022-10-29/)
I like this bit of the British response: "To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale"
Quote from: Todd on October 30, 2022, 05:30:24 AM
Russia's take on who done blew up them pipelines: Russia says UK navy blew up Nord Stream, London denies involvement (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-british-navy-personnel-blew-up-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-2022-10-29/)
I like this bit of the British response: "To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale"
And as we all know, the Russian government would
never lie about anything...
Russians lie. Brits lie. Americans lie.
Quote from: United States Secretary of State Colin Powell, February 5th, 2003...What you will see is an accumulation of facts and disturbing patterns of behavior. The facts on Iraqis' behavior - Iraq's behavior demonstrate that Saddam Hussein and his regime have made no effort - no effort - to disarm as required by the international community. Indeed, the facts and Iraq's behavior show that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction...
Quote from: Todd on October 30, 2022, 08:02:25 AM
Russians lie. Brits lie. Americans lie.
Not at the same level, the comparison is wrong.
Quote from: Christo on October 30, 2022, 12:52:18 PM
Not at the same level, the comparison is wrong.
A well, a new day, the same troll ....
Quote from: Christo on October 30, 2022, 12:52:18 PM
Not at the same level, the comparison is wrong.
There is some truth to this. Russian lies have not resulted in as many civilian deaths this century as British and American lies.
Quote from: Todd on October 30, 2022, 02:48:57 PM
There is some truth to this. Russian lies have not resulted in as many civilian deaths this century as British and American lies.
The sound of disgust you hear comes from the people of Syria, with assistance from various Chechens and Dagestanis.
(https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/styles/figureimage/public/imce/papers/2021/Screen%20Shot%202021-08-31%20at%209.36.05%20PM.png?itok=47btPOHv)
HUMAN COSTS The number of people killed directly in the violence of the U.S. post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere are estimated here. Several times as many more have been killed as a reverberating effect of the wars — because, for example, of water loss, sewage and other infrastructural issues, and war-related disease. Posted September 1, 2021.
Source: Watson Institute, Brown University.
I am quite sure that Syrians are also disgusted at the US for destroying Raqqa and slaughtering 1600 civilians in the process. I suspect a fair number of Syrians are disgusted that the US continues to maintain a military presence in the country even now. They probably don't care that it violates international law and US law. Why should they? The US can and does act lawlessly with impunity, but boy does it display inherent resolve, amiright?
'Murica.
The Syrians are probably too busy trying not to get killed by Assad's soldiers and Russia's barrel bombs to care about the relatively small US presence there.
And of course to call Yemen and Syria U.S. wars is to ignore the role of Iran in both and Russia in Syria.
BTW the number of civilian deaths in Syria is much higher than that chart shows
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Syrian_civil_war#:~:text=Estimates%20of%20the%20total%20number,had%20died%20in%20the%20war.
Quote from: JBS on October 30, 2022, 07:10:40 PMThe Syrians are probably too busy trying not to get killed by Assad's soldiers and Russia's barrel bombs to care about the relatively small US presence there.
How do you
know? Is it the same way you
know about their disgust? I strongly suspect most Syrians want all foreign troops out of their country and most non-Alawite Syrians want Assad gone. Even a goodly number of Alawites probably want Assad gone. That's a Syrian problem. But as your response shows, ongoing illegal action by the US is acceptable to a goodly number of people.
Quote from: JBS on October 30, 2022, 07:10:40 PMAnd of course to call Yemen and Syria U.S. wars is to ignore the role of Iran in both and Russia in Syria.
I've of course ignored neither.
Quote from: JBS on October 30, 2022, 07:10:40 PMBTW the number of civilian deaths in Syria is much higher than that chart shows
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Syrian_civil_war#:~:text=Estimates%20of%20the%20total%20number,had%20died%20in%20the%20war.
Note that the stats I chose are conservative. High end estimates of Iraqi deaths are 1.2 million+ (from ORB) and even Esquire ran with the headline grabbing one million figure. I have no reason to try to minimize the horrors unleashed by and the crimes committed by the US. You do. The Russians are no worse than the US; the Russians are no better than the US.
Oh, wait, Americans are good guys and Russians are bad guys.
'Murica.
Quote from: Todd on October 30, 2022, 02:48:57 PM
There is some truth to this. Russian lies have not resulted in as many civilian deaths this century as British and American lies.
Well, yeah, this is obviously true. But not really fair to the Russians because they were hampered by economic chaos and political collapse and didn't really have a chance at winning that contest. And you haven't accounted for the follow-on effects of the U.S. destabilizing the regional balance of power with the Iraq nonsense, so the U.S. win is even more impressive than you've painted it. Given the subject of this thread, however, it's just what-aboutism.
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 31, 2022, 05:20:59 AM
Well, yeah, this is obviously true. But not really fair to the Russians because they were hampered by economic chaos and political collapse and didn't really have a chance at winning that contest. And you haven't accounted for the follow-on effects of the U.S. destabilizing the regional balance of power with the Iraq nonsense, so the U.S. win is even more impressive than you've painted it. Given the subject of this thread, however, it's just what-aboutism.
I have not given an account of all deaths attributable to US foreign policy this century because that would take too long.
And of course is not what-aboutism at all. The US established the conditions that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It was part of a decades-long pattern of aggressive, interventionist US foreign policy.
Quote from: Todd on October 31, 2022, 06:18:32 AM
I have not given an account of all deaths attributable to US foreign policy this century because that would take too long.
And of course is not what-aboutism at all. The US established the conditions that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It was part of a decades-long pattern of aggressive, interventionist US foreign policy.
You're losing the thread of your argument. What U.S. and British lies are responsible for the Russian invasion? The conditions were the condition of one man's brain.
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 31, 2022, 07:10:07 AMThe conditions were the condition of one man's brain.
Incorrect. Even Robert Gates, hardly a dove or soft on Russia, wrote that inviting Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO was going too far. The US established the conditions that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US engages in provocative policies from time to time. That proud tradition started no later than the Intervención estadounidense en México.
Quite separately, British and American lies were used to justify the invasion of Iraq in 2003, which not only resulted in the excess deaths of hundreds of thousands but destabilized the greater Middle East. That, in turn, led to more violence and excess deaths in multiple countries. These excess civilian deaths exceed those caused by any other country this century. If one considers the entire post-war period, the record looks even worse.
We do not yet know the extent of British and American lies regarding the Russo-Ukrainian War. I suspect information will start to trickle out this decade, with more information forthcoming next decade. Whatever the case, that is separate, though if/when the lies are revealed, they will simply be more evidence of a pattern of behavior. This is to be expected. The US is a great power and acts like a great power. The UK is a former great power that partners with the leading great power of the day to increase its influence.
Quote from: Todd on October 31, 2022, 07:31:37 AM
Incorrect. Even Robert Gates, hardly a dove or soft on Russia, wrote that inviting Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO was going too far. The US established the conditions that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US engages in provocative policies from time to time. That proud tradition started no later than the Intervención estadounidense en México.
Quite separately, British and American lies were used to justify the invasion of Iraq in 2003, which not only resulted in the excess deaths of hundreds of thousands but destabilized the greater Middle East. That, in turn, led to more violence and excess deaths in multiple countries. These excess civilian deaths exceed those caused by any other country this century. If one considers the entire post-war period, the record looks even worse.
We do not yet know the extent of British and American lies regarding the Russo-Ukrainian War. I suspect information will start to trickle out this decade, with more information forthcoming next decade. Whatever the case, that is separate, though if/when the lies are revealed, they will simply be more evidence of a pattern of behavior. This is to be expected. The US is a great power and acts like a great power. The UK is a former great power that partners with the leading great power of the day to increase its influence.
NATO membership isn't bestowed by U.S. invitation. NATO isn't a threat to Russia — but we've been through this and it's useless rehashing it since you can't tell the interests of autocrats/would-be autocrats from those of nation states at home or abroad. In fact you don't even recognize aspiring autocrats when it's perfectly clear they're about to stage a coup.
Quote from: BasilValentine on October 31, 2022, 09:20:43 AM
NATO membership isn't bestowed by U.S. invitation. NATO isn't a threat to Russia — but we've been through this and it's useless rehashing it since you can't tell the interests of autocrats/would-be autocrats from those of nation states at home or abroad. In fact you don't recognize them even when it's perfectly clear they're about to stage a coup.
NATO is a manifestation of and method of expanding US power. NATO membership is pushed by the US, though of course the public process relies on countries requesting membership and unanimous acceptance by existing members. Existing members will bow to US pressure. Their security relies on the US.
As Robert Taft clearly and accurately wrote long before NATO was established, "[a] military alliance is always an alliance against someone". NATO is perceived by Russia as a direct threat. That makes it a threat to Russia. George Kennan warned of this in the 90s before the US undertook the foolish, aggressive, and needless expansion of NATO. Robert Gates wrote about it in 2014. Jeffrey Sachs has written and talked about it since. So not just left wing (eg, Chomsky) and right wing (eg, the Pauls) sorts warn about the dangers, but established intellectuals and practical men have and do as well. The current war represents the failure of NATO; there is large-scale war in Europe.
Your last sentence appears detached from reality.
Quote from: Todd on October 30, 2022, 02:48:57 PM
There is some truth to this. Russian lies have not resulted in as many civilian deaths this century as British and American lies.
What proof do we have that this account is still originating from Oregon rather than Moscow? It's getting hard to tell.
Bad news from Reuters: Russia announces wider evacuation of occupied southern Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/grain-ships-sail-ukraine-ports-russian-missiles-knock-out-power-across-country-2022-10-31/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily-briefing&utm_term=11-01-2022)
Bad news from AP (apparently 40% of Ukrainian energy infrastructure is now destroyed): Ukrainians grapple with power outages as winter approaches (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-power-outages-59e75904f889cb6039827daf73bf4c0d)
Two from AP:
Russian soldiers enter Kherson homes, dig in for urban war (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-europe-terrorism-6eef75649441fa87c7c75f96c3937006)
Power blackouts across Ukraine amid Russian shelling (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-iran-kyiv-business-europe-7d2dbb0d3a6c3f74def04f4e934fdb72)
A negotiated settlement is unacceptable.
Quote from: Todd on October 31, 2022, 09:38:41 AM
Your last sentence appears detached from reality.
I was referring to Trump, your blindness to his impending coup attempt, and your diagnosis of TDS for those who could clearly see coming what you could not. That's reality.
Quote from: BasilValentine on November 05, 2022, 07:04:30 AM
I was referring to Trump, your blindness to his impending coup attempt, and your diagnosis of TDS for those who could clearly see coming what you could not. That's reality.
Definitely detached from reality.
Quote from: Christo on November 05, 2022, 09:15:54 AM
There's no such thing as NATO expansion, there are only soverein states preferring a membership.
Incorrect. There have been several NATO expansions, the first in 1952.
Quote from: Todd on October 31, 2022, 09:38:41 AM
expansion of NATO.
There's no such thing as NATO expansion, there are only sovereign states preferring a membership.
Quote from: Christo on November 05, 2022, 09:20:27 AM
There's no such thing as NATO expansion, there are only sovereign states preferring a membership.
Incorrect. There have been several NATO expansions, the first in 1952.
Gentlemen, please, stop feeding the troll!
Why do I suspect that this is one of those semantic issues which could be easily resolved by people of good will?
:blank:
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on November 05, 2022, 10:03:45 AM
Why do I suspect that this is one of those semantic issues which could be easily resolved by people of good will?
:blank:
All but one here.
From Yahoo, of all sources: U.S. weapons sales in Europe are booming as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to rage (https://news.yahoo.com/us-weapons-sales-in-europe-are-booming-as-russias-war-in-ukraine-continues-to-rage-215801466.html)
Quote from: Melissa RossiIn many European countries over half of recent military expenditures went to American arms manufacturers, with Norway devoting 83% to U.S. purchases, the U.K. 77%, Italy 72% and the Netherlands spending 95% on American-made weapons in the period from 2017 to 2021, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)...
On the other hand, countries appear to be buying without an integrated approach to European security. "So it's possible that this new surge of sales might not increase Europe's defense capability in an effective way," Hartung said...
I can smell light at the end of the tunnel
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report
Quote from: Mandryka on November 06, 2022, 08:07:04 AM
I can smell light at the end of the tunnel
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report
It's a question of making the right appearance to maintain international support. Nothing is going to happen until Putin is willing to back down.
Quote from: Que on November 06, 2022, 08:13:41 AM
It's a question of making the right appearance to maintain international support. Nothing is going to happen until Putin is willing to back down.
Well there's 50 of shades of "back down"
Quote from: Mandryka on November 06, 2022, 08:18:22 AM
Well there's 50 of shades of "back down"
The darkest of them is "black down."
Quote from: Mandryka on November 06, 2022, 08:18:22 AM
Well there's 50 of shades of "back down"
The US must be willing to push for negotiations. Ukraine cannot withstand pressure from the US to do so. Such pressure will hopefully be more forthcoming after next Tuesday. If not, a lot more Ukrainians will die needlessly and many Europeans will suffer a chilly winter.
There has been little information, and much confusion, about Kherson.
The image that is now emerging is that Putin has been trying to beat the Ukrainians at their own game, by setting a trap behind a smoke screen of misinformation. Part of that smoke screen was the much advertised "evacuation", mainly of civilians. In reality Putin let the (remainder of) his best (professional) troops dig in Kherson city in abandoned houses, preparing for urban warfare. Meanwhile throwing in the freshly mobilized "troops" at the frontline as canon fodder, stalling the Ukrainians as long as possible and luring them towards the city.
I'm curious how this will play out in the coming weeks. Putin doesn't seem to have fooled the Ukrainians, who are advancing very cautiously and have knokec out water and electricity.
They might bypass Kherdon city altogether and cut off Russian forces by capturing the Khakovka Dam. By now the Ukrainians have gained artillery superiority. Putin's troops in Kherson city might find themselves in a difficult position.
Ukraine war: Kyiv Mayor Klitschko warns of evacuations if power lost (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63535263)
The US and Russia are talking about, you know, things. Russia has demands, which amount to a rescue plan that allows Russia to kind of slightly win the war. I surmise that at an earlier stage when it looked impossible for the Ukes to evict the squatters the US might accept something like the 2014 lines. The Ukes themselves say they are willing to talk, and their terms will be acceptable to the US. I fear the stumbling block is Putin isn't dead and his replacement will be trapped by the same logic of defeat as Putin is.
Where are the Bolsheviks when you need them? Will someone fetch me a peacemonger where it actually matters?
Kherson: Russia to withdraw troops from key Ukrainian city (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63573387)
Sean Penn Gives His Oscar to Zelensky During Kyiv Visit (https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/sean-penn-gives-his-oscar-to-zelensky-during-kyiv-visit.html)
A good day for Ukraine.
Meanwhile in Poland Russian opposition figures are discussing the option of retiring Putin with extreme prejudice. In addition to the obligatory bang bang, there might also be boom boom, because it's not one person who must go, it's also Prigozhin and his Wagnerians. And you have Kadyrov and his army to deal with.
Maybe these guys are just a bunch of fantasists and nothing will come of it.
Talking about fantasy, the Russians are building fortifications on the Russian side of the Ukraine border near Belgorod. As if!!!
Let them build a wall there if they promise to stay on one side of it...
Quote from: Todd on November 09, 2022, 09:22:00 AM
Kherson: Russia to withdraw troops from key Ukrainian city (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63573387)
If true, the war's almost certainly over, at least for this year. I'd expect fighting to resume in the spring (or perhaps even earlier) but for the moment that's good news for
everyone.
I note that Russian activists (online, at least) are talking about replacing Putin with a "real nationalist", someone even more far-right than him, but since they can't agree on a single name it does not seem likely to happen. The more predominant sentiment is summed up by this post (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhIlTHcWQAAYaAD.png). It looks as though Putin did indeed successfully find an offramp from the war that would allow him to hang on politically, even if it's a temporary one.
Reportedly, Ukrainian officials don't yet believe the withdrawal was real and are waiting for more information before attempting to enter the city. The whole thing has been rather surreal, what with Russia announcing this withdrawal like it's a victory and Ukraine refusing to believe in it like it's a defeat. There's widespread speculation that the US has offered some kind of peace deal where Russia withdraws from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia but keeps Donbas and Crimea—which would account for those sentiments, as that's ultimately a Ukrainian defeat/Russian victory—but of course we will not know anything for several months and/or whenever a major European or American politician is up for re-election and needs the propaganda coup of "negotiating peace in Ukraine".
I don't buy the US-Russia deal at all....
Having heard and read several comments in the media, I do think it is likely that Putin was indeed planning to lure Ukrainian troops into urban warfare in Kherson city. But it turned out the the Ukrainians weren't taking the bait. And their tactics of cutting off Russian supply lines worked so well that it would be Putin's best troops that would be trapped and destroyed instead. Since he needs them for his obsesion to conquer the Donbass region, in the end it was just an ordinary withdrawal to save his troops.
The Ukrainians will thank him, because now they have a secure southern flank and they can redeploy their troops for a mid-winter offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region. Or wait for their chance to move further south when left poorly defended by Putin... Defensive trenches are already dug in northern Crimea...
This doesn't sound like an orderly retreat:
Russian soldiers have been abandoning wounded comrades as they make a retreat from the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, the Daily Telegraph reports.
Nikolai, a Ukrainian soldier fighting in the region, told the newspaper:
"There is a withdrawal of Russian troops to more fortified positions. But there were still populated points where we saw battles. They withdraw because they suffer losses, very heavy losses. What's more, they don't even take the bodies of their soldiers and leave the wounded behind."
Quote from: Que on November 11, 2022, 12:23:14 AM
I don't buy the US-Russia deal at all....
I think
if negotiations are happening, which is a big if, they are essentially political cover allowing both sides to rearm (and avoid having to strain their supply lines through the winter) before fighting resumes. It seems very unlikely that anyone involved is ready to negotiate in good faith.
With that said, I would still say the war is unwinnable on the battlefield. The Russian military has proven weaker than expected, but even if it loses every battle from now on, political trends in Russia at the moment will prolong this as a frozen or semi-frozen conflict indefinitely, much like in Syria. I would be cautious about forecasting either side losing the will to fight, or believing any war reports one reads about casualties and so on.
The war will continue until it doesn't. At the moment, it appears to be on hold. (There is the chance of a new Ukrainian offensive in the area of Svatove—Kreminna, but this will be difficult for them due to terrain and winter weather; snow expected within the week.) At least for Ukrainian civilians that's a good thing. We'll see if it lasts.
Quote from: amw on November 11, 2022, 01:02:50 AM
I think if negotiations are happening, which is a big if, they are essentially political cover allowing both sides to rearm (and avoid having to strain their supply lines through the winter) before fighting resumes. It seems very unlikely that anyone involved is ready to negotiate in good faith.
Agreed. Neither side is willing to negotiate: Russia is not ready to admit defeat, and Ukraine is not willing to hand over large chuncks of its territory.
QuoteWith that said, I would still say the war is unwinnable on the battlefield. The Russian military has proven weaker than expected, but even if it loses every battle from now on, political trends in Russia at the moment will prolong this as a frozen or semi-frozen conflict indefinitely, much like in Syria.
Agreed. When we get to the point where both parties do not see any viable options to recoved their losses, there will be a ceasefire. But no real peace negotiations until a regime change in Russia takes place.
Quote from: amw on November 11, 2022, 01:02:50 AMI think if negotiations are happening, which is a big if, they are essentially political cover allowing both sides to rearm (and avoid having to strain their supply lines through the winter) before fighting resumes.
No way.
Quote from: amw on November 11, 2022, 01:02:50 AMI would be cautious about forecasting either side losing the will to fight, or believing any war reports one reads about casualties and so on.
No way.
It is worth repeating that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin publicly stated that the US is pursuing a policy of weakening Russia in Ukraine. US leadership wants this war to continue. Ukraine makes a great killing field.
I will speculate because who says I can't?
Here's the deal Putin will settle on when he gets to it.
Land for hostages is it. The land is Crimea and the Donbass. The hostages may number as many as a million.
Ukraine doesn't have to ask anyone in order to say no. Here's why. Russia doesn't actually want a million extra mouths to feed and it will never ever reengage with the world as long as it holds them. I mean, one basketball player doesn't nearly signify. All the Ukes have to do is keep on keeping on until Russia decides to stop dying of total death and more comfortably die slowly.
Quote from: Que on November 11, 2022, 03:52:45 AM
But no real peace negotiations until a regime change in Russia takes place.
The only thing I will disagree with is this. Putin is the only person in contention for Russian leadership who will ever be willing to negotiate with Ukraine. There is not, and will not be for perhaps several decades, a more liberal or moderate figure who could replace him; there are many more extreme figures. Regime change in Russia means a forever war. This is part of why the USA wants regime change in Russia; it wants the war to continue indefinitely.
I think what you're hoping for is some kind of situation where the CIA instigates colour revolutions throughout the various constituent republics of Russia and balkanises the country. I'm sure that's on their agenda somewhere but their track record of foreign intervention hasn't been great lately. We should expect Russia to continue existing in its current form and political makeup for some time.
Quote from: amw on November 11, 2022, 09:45:24 AM
The only thing I will disagree with is this. Putin is the only person in contention for Russian leadership who will ever be willing to negotiate with Ukraine. There is not, and will not be for perhaps several decades, a more liberal or moderate figure who could replace him; there are many more extreme figures.
Much as it pains me, I have to agree. (I mean, it doesn't pain me to agree with you --- it pains me to agree about Putin.)
I think the US wants the war to end, and preferably sooner than later. That's may be in conflict with the goal of supporting Ukraine at some future crossroads. It isn't yet.
The US doesn't want a total Russian collapse where its dismembered by enemies external and internal to its borders. There's also the economy to consider for the US and the countries it trades with.
The US also faces the consequences of Chinese unraveling, which could result in mass starvation and/or the possibility of a "use it or lose it" attack on Taiwan. The Russia case has to be settled fairly soon, I would say no later than the summer of 2023.
Regime change is a failed policy.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 11, 2022, 01:37:36 PMBut unless he is, Russia's future is bleak.
Maybe, maybe not. It is not for The West to determine who leads Russia.
Regime change is a Russian tradition. So is failure.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 11, 2022, 02:09:47 PM
Not so sure about that. The Russians do not exactly have a glorious history of deciding who their leaders should be.
If they cannot, maybe others will.
Regime change is a failed policy.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 11, 2022, 02:59:57 PMIt doesn't make the sentiment more or less true.
This is true. Likewise, posting false analogies about WWII and its wake remains irrelevant in all cases.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 11, 2022, 11:50:54 AM
On the basis of no knowledge whatsoever, but with a deep appreciation of history, I think you might be wrong. There was not, and did not appear to be plausible for several decades in 1945, a liberal democrat in the mere vicinity of Germany. They made do, and it worked out OK in the end.
This case does not make the point you think it does. We can't speak about Germany as a "true" liberal democracy until after reunification, i.e., five decades later after the country had already been balkanised and occupied. The trend towards liberalisation in these intervening decades was externally imposed by the occupying powers and Germany's subsequent economic dependence on them. It is instructive to note how many supposedly-reformed Nazis held onto power until the 1970s or 1980s.
I don't see many prospects for a joint US-EU-China occupation, partition and Marshall Plan for Russia.
Quote from: amw on November 11, 2022, 03:14:13 PMThis case does not make the point you think it does. We can't speak about Germany as a "true" liberal democracy until after reunification, i.e., five decades later after the country had already been balkanised and occupied. The trend towards liberalisation in these intervening decades was externally imposed by the occupying powers and Germany's subsequent economic dependence on them. It is instructive to note how many supposedly-reformed Nazis held onto power until the 1970s or 1980s.
I don't see many prospects for a joint US-EU-China occupation, partition and Marshall Plan for Russia.
Arguments that rely on or refer to WWII are not really arguments at all. They are all false analogies, for multiple reasons.
Perhaps the people on this forum who support regime change can provide a successful example of regime change from the post-war period. That's just shy of eighty years. Surely one must have been a great success. Then if they could explain how said successful example could translate to success in Russia, that would be fantastic. Or perhaps supporters of regime change are convinced that all the kinks are worked out of the process by now and it will work very well indeed with Russia. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again, and all that.
Quote from: amw on November 11, 2022, 03:14:13 PM
I don't see many prospects for a joint US-EU-China occupation, partition and Marshall Plan for Russia.
I don't get why this is so hard to understand. The US wants to avoid Russian disintegration, and is entirely aware that Russia will change for the worse in the majority of the scenarios that are most likely. Russian history is one disaster after another, and disasters change their regimes. The US is trying to prevent Russian and Chinese disasters from spilling over into other countries.
The 101st Airborne is in Poland. Russia is interested in talks. Kherson is liberated. None of this says Russia will change regimes or that they won't.
Quote from: Florestan on November 11, 2022, 12:59:55 PM
How and by whom could Putin be removed?
Old age eventually if nothing else...
Mind you, given that Trump seems to be going strong on an abominably bad diet, I don't hold much expectation of Putin being unhealthy any time soon. I know there was some speculation about him being ill but I tend to think that was nothing more than wishful thinking.
Quote from: drogulus on November 11, 2022, 07:02:27 PM
I don't get why this is so hard to understand. The US wants to avoid Russian disintegration, and is entirely aware that Russia will change for the worse in the majority of the scenarios that are most likely. Russian history is one disaster after another, and disasters change their regimes. The US is trying to prevent Russian and Chinese disasters from spilling over into other countries.
The 101st Airborne is in Poland. Russia is interested in talks. Kherson is liberated. None of this says Russia will change regimes or that they won't.
Where does this talk of a Chinese disaster come from?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 11, 2022, 11:50:54 AM
On the basis of no knowledge whatsoever, but with a deep appreciation of history, I think you might be wrong. There was not, and did not appear to be plausible for several decades in 1945, a liberal democrat in the mere vicinity of Germany. They made do, and it worked out OK in the end.
In 1945 Germany was militarily defeated, occupied and partitioned and its top political and military elite was subsequently hanged or imprisoned. There is absolutely no analogy for, or comparison to, 2022 Russia.
Quote from: Madiel on November 11, 2022, 10:19:45 PM
Old age eventually if nothing else...
Why, of course, but talks about his removal usually imply forced removal while he's still alive.
Quote from: Florestan on November 11, 2022, 12:59:55 PM
How and by whom could Putin be removed?
He won't, I think. But although the reports of Putin's imminent death were false, it does seem that he has some serious health issues - probably some form of cancer. He might die in a couple of years... He is now 70 years old anyway.
Before that moment a ceasefire a some point and a frozen conflict thereafter, seems a plausible scenario. Provided that the Russian forces continue to resist the Ukrainian offensive and are able to create a stalemate instead of collapsing altogether...The Ukrainians are aiming and hoping for the latter scenario which at this point cannot be ruled out.
After a possible ceasfire Ukraine will be rebuilt and join the EU or at least the internal market.
Meanwhile Western sanctions remain in place and the political and economic situation in Russia will contine to worsen.
Recapturing Kherson was essential for Ukraine's economic future and I think Ukraine keep fighting at least until the conditions for future economic development are met, like regaining sufficient access to the Black Sea.
Anyway, my two cents... For now the functioning and capabilities of the Russian troops seem to deteriorate by the month, and the coming winter might accelerate that decline. I think the Ukrainians will launch another offensive this winter with their new tanks once the mud freezes over. Finland fought and defeated Russia in mid winter, why couldn't the Ukrainians do the same?
Quote from: Todd on November 11, 2022, 03:35:20 PM
Perhaps the people on this forum who support regime change can provide a successful example of regime change from the post-war period.
What about Germany, Japan, all of the post-colonial regimes led by India, South-Africa, Argentina, Greece, many post-Soviet states headed by the Baltic countries?
Regime change does work sometimes, but externally forced regime change doesn't work very often.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 12, 2022, 02:34:01 AM
I disagree.
You can't disagree with facts. You can only choose to ignore them.
Quote from: Christo on November 12, 2022, 01:59:58 AM
What about Germany, Japan, all of the post-colonial regimes led by India, South-Africa, Argentina, Greece, many post-Soviet states headed by the Baltic countries?
What about them?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 12, 2022, 02:34:01 AMThe fact is, Russia is now militarily defeated
Can you define "defeated"?
Quote from: Christo on November 12, 2022, 01:59:58 AM
What about Germany,
Militarily defeated, occupied and partitioned.
QuoteJapan
Nuked twice.
Quoteall of the post-colonial regimes led by India, South-Africa, Argentina, Greece, many post-Soviet states headed by the Baltic countries?
All very good examples of regime change
from within.
Quote from: Madiel on November 12, 2022, 02:08:27 AM
Regime change does work sometimes, but externally forced regime change doesn't work very often.
This. Regime change from within, okay and stable. Regime change from without, problematic and unstable.
I have never before seen Argentina held up as a successful example of anything. If one surfs the net long enough, I guess it is inevitable.
Quote from: Que on November 11, 2022, 11:37:54 PMprobably some form of cancer.
How did you determine this?
Quote from: Que on November 11, 2022, 11:37:54 PMHe might die in a couple of years... He is now 70 years old anyway.
It might be a couple of years, it might be a decade, it might be longer.
As to Ukraine being rebuilt, how long will that take, who will foot the enormous bill (ie, >€1 trillion), and how will the rampant corruption in Ukraine be controlled?
Quote from: Madiel on November 11, 2022, 10:21:03 PM
Where does this talk of a Chinese disaster come from?
I can understand dismay about the China collapse story. Some people think peak China is in the future, others think it's in the recent past. One factor is that China is missing at least 100 million people. The population decline started earlier than many expected. Other factors are the rising labor costs and the ineffectiveness of the Chinese Covid vaccine which has repeatedly closed factories and depressed domestic demand, and the real estate collapse leading to the banking collapse. Foreign businesses are leaving. Wealthy Chinese are escaping while it's still possible to leave.
You might be more aware of how bad the situation is if you owned Chinese stocks. I don't, but since I follows all kinds of economic news I have a view of what's going on.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 12, 2022, 06:50:17 AMHistory will declare one or other of us the winner.
One of the more bizarre things ever written on GMG.
Quote from: Todd on November 12, 2022, 08:07:38 AM
One of the more bizarre things ever written on GMG.
The only bizarre thing on GMG are you!
Quote from: Harry on November 12, 2022, 08:08:52 AM
The only bizarre thing on GMG are you!
Great conjugation.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 12, 2022, 08:15:08 AMQuite why you have a disagreement with the proposition that, in the fullness of time, the turn out of events will establish which of the persons advocating for position X or Y was more right, I cannot fathom.
Your insistence that WWII is somehow analogous to, and offers valuable insight into, the current Russo-Ukrainian War demonstrates that people do not even agree on history and historical fact.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 12, 2022, 08:41:25 AMQuite correct. I type badly at times. Full marks.
You are Harry?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 12, 2022, 08:41:25 AMI look for analogies, only because I have nothing else to look to.
Another bizarre statement. One can look to current facts reported by reputable sources and then assess history and arrive at a synthesis of the two. History is useful, of course, but one must choose meaningful analogies and then not double down on improper ones, as you did with WWII.
People, please: consider what a tough week this has been for poor Todd. All the gloating he had set to post, all the memes that say Democrats Tears, all the performative impeachments to look forward to, all the deliciously entertaining crazy let loose, all the god-like certainty he had put into his previous posts. And now it's all been cruelly taken away.
Quote from: SimonNZ on November 12, 2022, 03:08:03 PM
People, please: consider what a tough week this has been for poor Todd. All the gloating he had set to post, all the memes that say Democrats Tears, all the performative impeachments to look forward to, all the deliciously entertaining crazy let loose, all the god-like certainty he had put into his previous posts. And now it's all been cruelly taken away.
Oh yeah beware, we just run the risk of him leaving the forum out of sheer frustration.
We are going through one of those weird periods where I don't think Todd is the person with the most bizarre utterances in the thread...
Quote from: SimonNZ on November 12, 2022, 03:08:03 PM
People, please: consider what a tough week this has been for poor Todd. All the gloating he had set to post, all the memes that say Democrats Tears, all the performative impeachments to look forward to, all the deliciously entertaining crazy let loose, all the god-like certainty he had put into his previous posts. And now it's all been cruelly taken away.
There is still a strong probabilty that the GOP will have the majority in the House, so the performative impeachments and theatrical investigations will be there.
In fact the slimmer the majority the more likely they will be, because MTGreene becomes that much more important.
And* the dangers to US aid to Ukraine will also be there
*to bring this post back to the thread topic
Quote from: JBS on November 12, 2022, 06:24:26 PM
There is still a strong probabilty that the GOP will have the majority in the House, so the performative impeachments and theatrical investigations will be there.
In fact the slimmer the majority the more likely they will be, because MTGreene becomes that much more important.
And* the dangers to US aid to Ukraine will also be there
*to bring this post back to the thread topic
After the 1/6 lunacy, Todd went totally silent in the (now defunct) American politics thread. It seemed like he had believed that the mayhem trump had been doing was generally good for American policy, politics, and government, up until that point. Was 1/6 a bridge too far for him? But as people have noticed, I find Todd's arguments worth engaging or something more than that. When you're spending billions/trillions on bombs, or, anything for that matter, it's a good idea to hear all the arguments. And, hey, I've been p.o.'d at people before but looking back I can't help but find some humor in it. It's all basically bar talk that seems more serious because it's written down on the webs.
I doubt Todd is in some deep depression about this election. In fact, I think the election could be rather ominous for liberals in some ways. The silly man has been defeated and a more serious "jerk" is here. I wonder if DeSantis is ready for the big leagues because it really looks like Trump has one foot in his political grave and it looks like it's Biden in 2024. It doesn't take much to have more political skill than trump, right? Liberals have to imagine the possibility of a version of trump that is not incompetent or aloof.
My post was meant to be entirely tongue in cheek...in case that didn't come across.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 12, 2022, 11:29:32 AMThere are no "improper analogies".
No, there are false analogies. Comparing the Russo-Ukrainian War to WWII is a perfect example of a false analogy. Lots of folks use false analogies involving WWII all the time. It's a thing, and not just your thing.
Quote from: JBS on November 12, 2022, 06:24:26 PMThere is still a strong probabilty that the GOP will have the majority in the House, so the performative impeachments and theatrical investigations will be there.
Indeed, and delayed election results have already intensified elections themselves as an issue. So much good stuff to come.
Quote from: milk on November 12, 2022, 11:14:54 PMI doubt Todd is in some deep depression about this election.
Why on earth would anyone ever become depressed about the outcome of any election? I delight in the outcome of every election and look forward to the next one. The race for 2024 has already started.
From the Graun: Russia-Ukraine war: Kherson mayor warns of 'critical' water shortages after Russian forces destroyed key infrastructure (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/13/russia-ukraine-war-kherson-mayor-warns-of-critical-water-shortages-after-russian-forces-destroyed-key-infrastructure-live)
Scorched earth tactics are ancient and still have a place in the modern world.
More interesting in the snippet-style articles reported by the Graun is mention that Janet Yellen stated at the G20 meeting that she supposed "in the context of some peace agreement, adjustment of sanctions [imposed on Russia] is possible and could be appropriate." The US Administration is putting out feelers. Ukrainians may have to die needlessly for only a few more months. Or maybe longer.
Quote from: Todd on November 13, 2022, 06:24:10 AM
The US Administration is putting out feelers. Ukrainians may have to die needlessly for only a few more months. Or maybe longer.
I doubt of Putin will ever be ready for real negotiations - seeing is believing. Perhaps a ceasefire in a while - after some more painful losses.
What we however
do know is that if Ukrainans wouldn't have fought and died for their country, this war would indeed have ended a long time ago - with Ukraine's dismemberment and subjugation. Every day Ukrainians make the choice to resist that ill fate, as is their right as an independent nation. Irrespective of whether you respect that choice or not.
Quote from: Que on November 13, 2022, 07:04:56 AMWhat we however do know is that if Ukrainans wouldn't have fought and died for their country
We also know that Ukraine is incapable of putting up a meaningful resistance without economic and military support from the US. Ukrainians can fight and die just as long as they want. The US should not pay for it. Europeans can and should step up if it is that important.
The significance of Yellen's tepid statement is that she made it at all. Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, and Austin have all taken a harder line in public. Of course, Yellen's statement does not mean that the US will ever be ready for real negotiations.
Quote from: Todd on November 13, 2022, 07:10:22 AM
We also know that Ukraine is incapable of putting up a meaningful resistance without economic and military support from the US. Ukrainians can fight and die just as long as they want. The US should not pay for it. Europeans can and should step up if it is that important.
So why not limit your complaints to the way your tax money is being spent, which is clearly your prime concern.
This might interest you: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
Quote from: Que on November 13, 2022, 07:25:17 AMSo why not limit your complaints to the way your tax money is being spent, which is clearly your prime concern.
Because I have additional concerns, which I have posted about before.
I am well aware of the aid given by other countries, such as it is. Here's a question, which country do you think provides more useful military intelligence to Ukraine, the US or the Netherlands?
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 13, 2022, 09:00:13 AMI think it an apt comparison and it works for me -and, potentially, for others, too.
You are free to double down on use of false analogies. WWII is an internets favorite. And yes, post-WWII reconstruction falls into that category.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 13, 2022, 09:35:36 AM
Referee! I think I just saw the goal posts being moved!!!
Yeah, you be predictable you, Todd.
It would be funny if it weren't so entirely predictable and therefore utterly tedious.
Good use of exclamation marks.
You can pretend post-WWII reconstruction would have occurred without WWII if you wish. You can triple, quadruple, etc down on whatever false analogy you choose.
Again, if everyone would ignore the senseless provocations by Todd, we would not get so irritated or frustrated as we do. But somehow everyone, or most fall into the trap which the troll is setting before us. Todd thinks he is right, always, and the others are wrong, always, so this is a one way street in the direction of the resident troll. Stop reacting and the only poster will be Todd, and he will quickly grow tired of himself.
This post is worth re-reading:
Quote from: Harry on May 05, 2022, 05:08:33 AM
Kyrill and the Pope have the same master, the God of greed, be it for wordly power, or Roebels in the case of Kyrill. Organized religion always leads to corruption of soul and body.
Quote from: Que on November 13, 2022, 07:04:56 AM
I doubt of Putin will ever be ready for real negotiations - seeing is believing. Perhaps a ceasefire in a while - after some more painful losses.
What we however do know is that if Ukrainans wouldn't have fought and died for their country, this war would indeed have ended a long time ago - with Ukraine's dismemberment and subjugation. Every day Ukrainians make the choice to resist that ill fate, as is their right as an independent nation. Irrespective of whether you respect that choice or not.
Apparently, "Live Free or Die" is a notion only certain people are allowed to have.
The conscriptions ...
I've noticed over the past week or so friends in Irkutsk and Samara and St. Petersburg are becoming very, very reticent in discussing anything about the gov't or the war at all. I try to tell them that their VPN's protect them, but such is the fear that it doesn't matter.
If there were any doubts at all that Putin has resurrected a Stalinist regime (short of massive internal murders), they should be dismissed.
Two of these families have military-age sons, and are extremely worried they are going to die. Set aside the Russian propaganda - the people are VERY aware of the massive casualties - dead and badly injured - the Russian military have sustained.
But they are totally unarmed - powerless. Let's hope some Russian marshall/clique will finally put his own skin to the side, and DO SOMETHING.
Quote from: Scion7 on November 14, 2022, 01:41:05 AMI try to tell them that their VPN's protect them
That is not a strong assurance.
From Wired: 'Dark Ships' Emerge From the Shadows of the Nord Stream Mystery (https://www.wired.com/story/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-dark-ships/)
From Offshore Energy: Nord Stream operator finds 'technogenic craters' at damaged pipeline (https://www.offshore-energy.biz/nord-stream-operator-finds-technogenic-craters-at-damaged-pipeline/)
So, a state or non-state actor in possession of pretty good-sized ships appears to have blown up the pipelines. Hopefully, the current NATO investigation is completed fairly soon and made public ASAP thereafter. Maybe Q1. (It was the Russians; Time magazine already spilled the beans.)
Quote from: Todd on November 14, 2022, 04:37:07 AM
That is not a strong assurance.
If you encrypt your traffic, you won't be getting hacked w/o a line of computers working in tandem for years. Very unlikely that the KGB will pick up on a short convo, let alone capture it for decoding. 8)
Quote from: Scion7 on November 14, 2022, 05:46:55 AMVery unlikely that the KGB will pick up on a short convo, let alone capture it for decoding.
The KGB died with the USSR in 1991.
It looks like just a little too much faith is being placed in VPNs.
Quote from: Scion7 on November 14, 2022, 01:41:05 AM
But they are totally unarmed - powerless. Let's hope some Russian marshall/clique will finally put his own skin to the side, and DO SOMETHING.
The leading candidates are as bad or worse.
Concerning negotiations, the US has told the Russians to direct their pleas to Kyiv, and told the Ukes to make public noises about the willingness to negotiate. They should not say they won't deal with Putin. Their actual position isn't a problem.
Quote from: Todd on November 14, 2022, 06:10:36 AM
The KGB died with the USSR in 1991.
It looks like just a little too much faith is being placed in VPNs.
Secret police, same thing.
And, nope - high level encryption is extremely difficult to hack into.
Quote from: Scion7 on November 14, 2022, 04:25:53 PMSecret police, same thing.
Not quite.
Quote from: Scion7 on November 14, 2022, 04:25:53 PMAnd, nope - high level encryption is extremely difficult to hack into.
Well, not really. For those who are highly mobile, VPNs might suffice, otherwise, not so much.
A non-GMG (and hence more likely to be fact-based and therefore necessarily accurate) outlook:
That VPN may not be as secure as you think (https://www.networkworld.com/article/3340342/that-vpn-may-not-be-as-secure-as-you-think.html)
Quote from: Todd on November 14, 2022, 05:16:54 PM
Well, not really.
Yes, really.
Todd, I respect you have your opinions and links, but you are wrong. I have access to information you don't.
Quote from: Scion7 on November 14, 2022, 05:39:02 PM
Yes, really.
Todd, I respect you have your opinions and links, but you are wrong. I have access to information you don't.
And just what would that information be? Broad strokes.
Quote from: Todd on November 14, 2022, 06:19:54 PM
And just what would that information be? Broad strokes.
He would be foolish to answer that question here, and has no reason to respond to a Putin apologist in any case.
Quote from: LKB on November 14, 2022, 09:20:26 PM
He would be foolish to answer that question here, and has no reason to respond to a Putin apologist in any case.
Ah, yes, the Putin apologist thingy again. I forgot, is Putin like Hitler? Hopefully you can clarify.
Huggy Bear has posted some damned silly shit, but the announcement of the KGB's death is a "personal best."
Meanwhile: darn them warmongers!
The scenes of residents of Kherson rushing to greet and cheer their liberators will almost certainly be repeated when Melitopol and Mariupol fall. Mariupol was the scene of some of the toughest fighting of the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Government forces were forced to evacuate the city in March before reclaiming it in June. Eight years later, when Russia re-invaded Ukraine, Mariupol was the site of the famous siege of the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works, where Ukrainian forces held out against overwhelming Russian bombardment for almost three months before Zelensky ordered them to stop resisting.
Russia has a new air to air missile it's using over Ukraine and it's a beast. It's hypersonic and effective against Uke MiGs and Flankers. It's fired from the MiG-31, the most beastly interceptor the Russians ever produced. On several occasions in the '80s these planes intercepted SR-71 Blackbirds flying near the Russian border doing spy stuff.
(https://i.insider.com/59a99fa16eac402a008b7e33?width=1000&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
Beast jet
(https://www.defenseworld.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/R-37M-3D-840x480-1.jpg)
Beast missile
The Ukes will have to be careful.
Strikes put Ukraine in darkness; missiles cross into Poland (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52)
Uh-oh.
Quote from: Todd on November 15, 2022, 10:26:16 AM
Strikes put Ukraine in darkness; missiles cross into Poland (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52)
Uh-oh.
??? Just turned on CNN and heard that two Polish people are dead.
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on November 15, 2022, 10:41:16 AM
??? Just turned on CNN and heard that two Polish people are dead.
PD
Doesn't look good for Russia. It's usually a red flag for your "precision" strikes if they land in the wrong country. :(
...there's also a related article about Moldova and at least temporary power interruptions. From that article:
"Moldova's pro-Western president, Maia Sandu, condemned Russia's attacks in Ukraine that ultimately left "dozens of localities" in her country without light.
"They hit the civil and energy infrastructure of the neighboring country, endangering the lives and safety of tens of thousands of people," Sandu wrote on Facebook.
"Russian attacks on Ukraine also caused the automatic disengagement of a line that provides electricity transportation for our country, and dozens of localities were left without light," she said, adding that "specialist services are working to resolve the situation."
Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said on Facebook that the large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure could affect the energy systems of its neighboring countries. He noted that Tuesday's barrage on Ukraine's energy facilities has been "the most massive" since the start of the war.
The outages hit Moldova, a former Soviet republic sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, as it grapples with a serious winter energy crisis, rapidly rising inflation and a series of anti-government protests. Russia, which it relies on entirely for natural gas, recently halved its supply to Moldova.
Last week, the EU pledged 250 million euros (nearly $260 million) to help Moldova — which was granted EU candidate status in June along with Ukraine — tackle the energy crisis and support its most vulnerable people."
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-moldova-power-outages-edfd0a2990ee1a151e970755657ee73b
PD
Quote from: Spotted Horses on November 15, 2022, 10:45:08 AM
Doesn't look good for Russia. It's usually a red flag for your "precision" strikes if they land in the wrong country. :(
Yep. Apparently it hit an area close to the border where grain was drying. >:( :(
PD
Oh crap.
This morning some reports of Ukrainian troops crossing the Dnipro river and of Russian troops pulling back from their defensive positions along the river bank.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_1edfd5e923d999f97db39db282a1cc5c (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_1edfd5e923d999f97db39db282a1cc5c)
Biden says it's "unlikely" missile that fell in Poland was fired from Russia.
US President Joe Biden said that preliminary information suggests it is unlikely the missile that caused an explosion in Poland on Tuesday and killed two civilians was fired from within Russia.
Speaking to reporters after meeting with other world leaders in Bali, Indonesia, the president was asked if it was too early to say whether the projectile was fired from Russia.
"There is preliminary information that contests that. I don't want to say that until we completely investigate it," Biden responded.
He added that "it's unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. But we'll see."
Earlier, Russia's Defense Ministry said reports of Russian missiles landing in Poland were a "deliberate provocation."
Quote from: Florestan on November 15, 2022, 11:18:37 PM
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_1edfd5e923d999f97db39db282a1cc5c (https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_1edfd5e923d999f97db39db282a1cc5c)
Biden says it's "unlikely" missile that fell in Poland was fired from Russia.
US President Joe Biden said that preliminary information suggests it is unlikely the missile that caused an explosion in Poland on Tuesday and killed two civilians was fired from within Russia.
Speaking to reporters after meeting with other world leaders in Bali, Indonesia, the president was asked if it was too early to say whether the projectile was fired from Russia.
"There is preliminary information that contests that. I don't want to say that until we completely investigate it," Biden responded.
He added that "it's unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. But we'll see."
Earlier, Russia's Defense Ministry said reports of Russian missiles landing in Poland were a "deliberate provocation."
The obvious question is: if it didn't come from Russia, where
did it come from?
It's also not clear to me whether there's a possibility of Russians firing a missile from somewhere other than Russia. Either from occupied Ukrainian territory, or from Belarus. All extremely curious indeed.
Quote from: Madiel on November 15, 2022, 11:29:40 PM
The obvious question is: if it didn't come from Russia, where did it come from?
It's also not clear to me whether there's a possibility of Russians firing a missile from somewhere other than Russia. Either from occupied Ukrainian territory, or from Belarus. All extremely curious indeed.
You answered your own question, Belarus is highly unlikely, though. A third possibility is that it came from non-occupied Ukraine and the error is on the Ukrainian side.
As to whodunnit, the answer is obvious: the warmongers at GMG.
Looks like the missile came from Ukraine and was a defence missile (correct English term?) against Russian missiles.
Quote from: 71 dB on November 16, 2022, 01:39:19 AM
Looks like the missile came from Ukraine and was a defence missile (correct English term?) against Russian missiles.
The matter seems settled indeed but even if the missile had been fired by Russians it would still not have been a
casus belli unless one could have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that it was intentionally targeted at Polish territory and not an accident --- a rather impossible task. Russia's moral responsibility still remains, though, because without their invasion and war those two unfortunate Polish persons (who were in the wrong place at the wrong time) would not have died.
Quote from: Florestan on November 16, 2022, 02:19:12 AM
The matter seems settled indeed but even if the missile had been fired by Russians it would still not have been a casus belli unless one could have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that it was intentionally targeted at Polish territory and not an accident --- a rather impossible task. Russia's moral responsibility still remains, though, because without their invasion and war those two unfortunate Polish persons (who were in the wrong place at the wrong time) would not have died.
Not contradicting your assessment, but Russia
does intentionally pick targets that are close to the Polish border.
It's surprising that something like this hasn't happened sooner.
But since the targets were civilian in a war that is illegal, the whole thing is a violation of international law anyway.. ..
PS It was a Russian made Ukrainian defense missile that went astray.
Quote from: Que on November 16, 2022, 02:51:07 AM
It's surprising that something like this hasn't happened sooner.
Yep.
QuoteBut since the targets were civilian in a war that is illegal, the whole thing is a violation of international law anyway.. ..
The whole invasion is a violation of international law and a breach of treaties to which Russia is a signatory part --- but in this incident, the victims were not targets but collateral victims and the missile was fired not by the Russians but by the Ukrainians. Let's not paint the Devil blacker than he is. This is not to say that a Russian-fired missile could not in the future accidentally hit Polish soil --- or Romanian, for that matter, we have a long border with Ukraine too.
Quote from: Que on November 16, 2022, 02:51:07 AM
It was a Russian made Ukrainian defense missile that went astray.
Shit happens in war irrespective of the maker. Remember when the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade was hit by a NATO missile?
WWIII averted. Whew! Let the war continue. No negotiations. (Zelensky's proposal yesterday, complete with an absolutist fifth point and an absurdist eighth - ecocide joins the fray - was not a serious attempt, though the Russkies can take him up on it if they want.) Warmongers can rejoice in the continuation of a more contained proxy war.
Quote from: Que on November 16, 2022, 02:51:07 AMBut since the targets were civilian in a war that is illegal, the whole thing is a violation of international law anyway.. ..
International law is a fiction only as good as its selective enforcement.
Quote from: Todd on November 16, 2022, 05:26:52 AM
WWIII averted. Whew! Let the war continue. No negotiations. (Zelensky's proposal yesterday, complete with an absolutist fifth point and an absurdist eighth - ecocide joins the fray - was not a serious attempt, though the Russkies can take him up on it if they want.) Warmongers can rejoice in the continuation of a more contained proxy war.
Your joking and mocking tone about such a serious subject is exactly why everyone thinks you're a troll.
It is also the reason why, if you've ever actually bothered to try to make a serious point here, the great majority of us wouldn't instinctively recognise that's what you were doing. It's the boy who cried wolf, only in the form of an adult male who thinks it's funny to constantly mock a discussion about matters of life and death.
You regularly belittle the fact that it's even being discussed, and yet you are the person who spends the most time prodding the discussion.
It's trolling. And the sooner you are kicked out of here the better.
Quote from: Madiel on November 16, 2022, 06:20:19 AM
Your joking and mocking tone about such a serious subject is exactly why everyone thinks you're a troll.
It is also the reason why, if you've ever actually bothered to try to make a serious point here, the great majority of us wouldn't instinctively recognise that's what you were doing. It's the boy who cried wolf, only in the form of an adult male who thinks it's funny to constantly mock a discussion about matters of life and death.
You regularly belittle the fact that it's even being discussed, and yet you are the person who spends the most time prodding the discussion.
It's trolling. And the sooner you are kicked out of here the better.
Agreed!
Quote from: Todd on November 16, 2022, 05:26:52 AM
WWIII averted. Whew! Let the war continue. No negotiations. (Zelensky's proposal yesterday, complete with an absolutist fifth point and an absurdist eighth - ecocide joins the fray - was not a serious attempt, though the Russkies can take him up on it if they want.) Warmongers can rejoice in the continuation of a more contained proxy war.
International law is a fiction only as good as its selective enforcement.
Ukrainians want their territory back, the Russians are complying. Negotiation at its best. ;D
Quote from: BasilValentine on November 16, 2022, 07:11:09 AM
Ukrainians want their territory back, the Russians are complying. Negotiation at its best. ;D
Although the Ukrainians would prefer not to have their territory back as a smoldering ruin. :(
Ukraine is playing hardball in the early stages of "no negotiations" negotiations. I don't see why they shouldn't.
Zelensky's stubborn denial of facts and insistence that the missile was Russian-fired is strange and will do him a great disservice. Yes, Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is the victim, but this doesn't mean that Ukrainians are blameless heroes who cannot commit errors and blunders. Besides, nobody within NATO, Poland in the least, accused them of anything. NATO's Secretary General Stoltenberg even stated explicitly that it's not Ukraine's fault. I think it's high time Zelensky moderates his rhetoric and adopts a more realistic stance. I might be wrong but my impression is that his having being hailed ever since the war began as a hero sans peur et sans reproche eventually made him lose touch with reality a little.
Quote from: BasilValentine on November 16, 2022, 07:11:09 AM
Ukrainians want their territory back, the Russians are complying. Negotiation at its best. ;D
The families of dead Ukrainians and displaced Ukrainians may disagree. Or they may agree. In either case, negotiations are still preferable.
I wonder what the reconstruction tally is up to now, and how much it will grow as the war stretches on. Europeans are gonna have to dig deep to foot the bill.
Quote from: Florestan on November 16, 2022, 11:21:05 AM
Zelensky's stubborn denial of facts and insistence that the missile was Russian-fired is strange and will do him a great disservice.
I hadn't been aware he was saying such things (I've heard the remarks of Biden, Polish leader and NATO leader). I agree that's not going to help (and the rest of your remarks, I just snipped this bit)
Quote from: amw on October 25, 2022, 11:01:59 PM
In general, Western countries have a proven track record of providing weapons and training to extremist political formations for the purposes of fighting the Russians/Soviets/Chinese/Iranians/etc and then having this blow up in their faces (sometimes literally) once the Russians/Soviets/Chinese/Iranians are no longer in the picture.
But again, who knows. Maybe we know what we're doing this time.
I was linked to this news story (https://www.today.it/cronaca/terrorismo-neonazismo-arresti-campania-oggi-15-novembre-2022.html) today—for those who don't read Italian: members of a neo-Nazi group in Italy arrested for allegedly plotting terrorist attacks; one suspect reportedly received weapons and training from far-right militias in Ukraine and therefore one can potentially draw a throughline from Western military aid to Ukraine directly to these weirdos. (Assuming the police allegations prove to be true, anyway.)
This kind of thing will become more common over time, I suspect.
In good (?) news, snow and heavy rain all along the front line, so not much actual war has been happening (apart from Russian missile strikes), and probably not likely to be much fighting until the ground has frozen over and the skies clear up—if not longer.
Quote from: amw on November 16, 2022, 11:36:10 PMone suspect reportedly received weapons and training from far-right militias in Ukraine and therefore one can potentially draw a throughline from Western military aid to Ukraine directly to these weirdos
CBS ran this story in August: Why military aid in Ukraine may not always get to the front lines (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-military-aid-weapons-front-lines/). (The story was revised/softened since initial release.)
During the early stages of the war, per this article, 60-70% of supplies sent to Ukraine did not reach planned final destinations. (One can imagine the rejoinders that could be offered by avid war supporters.) Some people will insist that things have dramatically improved, though no one knows by how much. This seems like precisely the type of thing that should be formally investigated. It's always good to remember that Ukraine is obscenely corrupt, the second most corrupt country in Europe after only Russia per Transparency International. It seems very likely that billions (or more) in aid has been siphoned off, and when reconstruction aid starts pouring in, it will be like Russia in the 90s. In the meantime, if assorted neo-fascist and/or terrorist organizations around the world get their hands on western weapons, well, that's just the cost of doing business.
From NBC: 'That's not the evidence': Ukraine clashes with its allies over Poland blast in a rare public split (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-allies-clash-poland-blast-biden-evidence-putin-war-rcna57631)
Zelensky needs to remember who calls the shots. It ain't him.
.
From the Graun: Russia-Ukraine war live: remains of explosives found at Nord Stream pipeline blast site; death toll of latest Russian strikes rises (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/18/russia-ukraine-war-live-missile-strikes-leave-10-million-ukrainians-without-power-says-zelenskiy)
I am truly surprised to learn that explosives were found. I remain convinced that the two pipelines ruptured spontaneously and coincidentally.
A gas pipeline exploded in St. Petersburg. Would this be the work of the same saboteurs who blew up the Nord Stream pipes? Who could do both, and of those who could who would act inside Russia?
I'm supposing Ukraine isn't capable of the Nord Stream strike. The St. Petersburg strike is definitely something they could and would do, perhaps with help from Russians.
No, besides being just an accident, this is far out of Ukraine's reach. Crimea is about as far as they can 'range.'
Quote from: drogulus on November 19, 2022, 08:58:29 AM
A gas pipeline exploded in St. Petersburg. Would this be the work of the same saboteurs who blew up the Nord Stream pipes? Who could do both, and of those who could who would act inside Russia?
I'm supposing Ukraine isn't capable of the Nord Stream strike. The St. Petersburg strike is definitely something they could and would do, perhaps with help from Russians.
There's no evidence in this case of sabotage. It's not as if gas pipeline explosions never happen unaided.
Quote from: Madiel on November 19, 2022, 09:30:03 PM
There's no evidence in this case of sabotage. It's not as if gas pipeline explosions never happen unaided.
Esp. with aging Soviet-era infrastructure.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on November 20, 2022, 04:24:22 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/world/sweden-finds-traces-explosives-damaged-nord-stream-pipeline-gross-sabotage
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/18/gross-sabotage-traces-of-explosives-found-at-sites-of-nord-stream-gas-leaks
https://www.dw.com/en/sweden-prosecutor-confirms-nord-stream-2-sabotage/a-63806519
Looks like sabotage to me. With plenty of evidence.
Madiel was referring to the St. Petersburg explosion.
From the Graun: Russia-Ukraine war live: Zaporizhzhia attacks 'playing with fire', UN warns; negotiating would be capitulation, Ukraine adviser says (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-437-ukrainian-children-killed-so-far-says-kyiv-uk-sending-tech-to-counter-iranian-drones)
More Zaporizhzhia 'splosions. Probably kinda sucks to live in that region right about now. Thankfully, I live about six thousand miles away.
And after the very heroic Zelensky offered negotiation terms at COP27, the Ukrainian government now changes its tune regarding negotiations. Ukraine, like Russia, acts in bad faith.
Quote from: Scion7 on November 19, 2022, 12:16:07 PM
No, besides being just an accident, this is far out of Ukraine's reach. Crimea is about as far as they can 'range.'
Of course it's possible that Russia has become accident prone since the start of the war. Before that accidents were rare. We know this much, that saboteurs are operating in Russia. Who they are isn't clear. Who sabotaged helicopters 600 miles from Ukraine in Pskov?
Sabotage of military helicopters deep inside Russia purportedly shown on video (https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/europe/russia-helicopter-sabotage-video-intl)
Video has emerged purporting to show a man preparing and planting explosives on a Russian military helicopter at an airbase deep inside Russia.
Subsequent satellite imagery shows several damaged helicopters at the base in Pskov region in northern Russia. The base is about 35 kilometers from the border with Latvia, but nearly 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine.
The sabotage of the helicopters is the furthest from Ukrainian territory that an attack has been confirmed against a Russian military target since the conflict began.
The video shows an unidentified man placing something inside a helicopter. At one point he puts something to his ear, possibly a timer. At another moment, a Ka-52 attack helicopter is clearly visible.
The video is shot in daylight but the explosions did not occur until after nightfall, according to unofficial Russian media. CNN has geolocated the video to the Veretye base at Beredniki.
The Ukrainian operator of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant says Russian forces were behind Saturday night and Sunday morning's shelling, contradicting Moscow's claim that the attack came from Ukraine.
The nuclear energy company Energoatom said there had been at least 12 hits on the plant's infrastructure facilities, Reuters reports.
The company posted on Telegram that the list of damaged equipment indicated that the attackers "targeted and disabled exactly the infrastructure that was necessary for the restart of 5th and 6th power units" and the restoration of power production for the country's needs.
From the Gray Lady: Ukraine Plans Evacuations in 2 Stricken Cities as Temperatures Plunge (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/20/world/europe/ukraine-evacuation-kherson-mykolaiv.html)
No negotiations. Keep fighting.
Sweden knows what happened to Nord Stream. They know who did it, and they have unofficially informed everyone of their findings. It's fine that the news leaks, that's not a problem.
Europe still trades with Russia and it's vital that they continue for the foreseeable future. That drives the decision not to name Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
A note about Zeihan and his Zeihanists, which applies also to George Friedman, who has similar views on Russia and China. They have followers who clip what they say and attach clickbait titles about how these countries will collapse in 14 days or 769 days or something. Look, a disasterphile like Peter Schiff does this on his own with no help. He is in technical parlance a clown. Unfortunately Zeihan and Friedman are clowned by their groupies.
Quote from: drogulus on November 21, 2022, 08:36:41 AM
Sweden knows what happened to Nord Stream. They know who did it, and they have unofficially informed everyone of their findings. It's fine that the news leaks, that's not a problem.
Europe still trades with Russia and it's vital that they continue for the foreseeable future. That drives the decision not to name Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
https://www.youtube.com/v/ODpoJW074_A
A note about Zeihan and his Zeihanists, which applies also to George Friedman, who has similar views on Russia and China. They have followers who clip what they say and attach clickbait titles about how these countries will collapse in 14 days or 769 days or something. Look, a disasterphile like Peter Schiff does this on his own with no help. He is in technical parlance a clown. Unfortunately Zeihan and Friedman are clowned by their groupies.
Очень интересно
Quote from: Todd on November 21, 2022, 05:13:52 AM
From the Gray Lady: Ukraine Plans Evacuations in 2 Stricken Cities as Temperatures Plunge (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/20/world/europe/ukraine-evacuation-kherson-mykolaiv.html)
No negotiations. Keep fighting.
You're aware that the invaders were bound by a negotiated agreement to respect Ukraine's sovereignty when they invaded in 2014 and 2022, right? And your solution is negotiation? Not everyone learns at the same rate.
Quote from: BasilValentine on November 22, 2022, 10:39:12 AM
You're aware that the invaders were bound by a negotiated agreement to respect Ukraine's sovereignty when they invaded in 2014 and 2022, right?
Not a single one of Russia's negotiated, written, signed and sealed agreements is worth more than the paper it's printed on. We Romanians have learned this lesson the hard way already in 1877-79, when Lenin was still a child, Stalin was still in his diapers and Putin's parents were not even a project in the making.
Politically speaking, I'm an intractable Russophobe. Culturally speaking, I'm a convinced Russophile. This dualism has been heaviliy tested since February, 24 --- there have been moments when I couldn't stand listening to one single note of Russian music or reading one single line of Russian literature. Fortunately, I have come to terms with it --- after all, it's not Rachmaninoff, Tolstoy or Repin who invaded Ukraine and it's not Tchaikovsky, Turgenev or Levitan whio signed the Russo-Romanian agreement of 1877 (to be trampled under Russian foot in 1878 and 1879). One should always make a clear distinction between government and people, irrespective of the nation in question.
Quote from: BasilValentine on November 22, 2022, 10:39:12 AM
You're aware that the invaders were bound by a negotiated agreement to respect Ukraine's sovereignty when they invaded in 2014 and 2022, right? And your solution is negotiation? Not everyone learns at the same rate.
No negotiations. Keep fighting.
Quote from: Todd on November 22, 2022, 10:57:07 AM
No negotiations. Keep fighting.
You said it yourself:
Quote from: Todd on November 20, 2022, 06:05:09 AM
Ukraine, like Russia, acts in bad faith.
So, what sincere and fruitful negotiations could ever take place between two parts acting equally in bad faith?
I can already hear you retorting: the negotiations should be between the US and Russia.
But time and again you have stated that the US acts in bad faith too.
So, what sincere and fruitful negotiations could ever take place between two parts acting equally in bad faith?
IMNSHO, the best we can hope for is a frozen armistice akin to the North/South Korea one. May God grant it asap!
Quote from: Florestan on November 22, 2022, 11:16:18 AMI can already hear you retorting: the negotiations should be between the US and Russia.
Given some of the key issues, the US must be involved. Ukraine is weak and reliant on Uncle
Sugar Sam for its survival.
Quote from: Florestan on November 22, 2022, 11:16:18 AMSo, what sincere and fruitful negotiations could ever take place between two parts acting equally in bad faith?
I look to the history of the US and the USSR and then Russia and the various treaties they negotiated and abided by. Negotiation and settlement are possible between great powers. Indeed, if Biden and Blinken, or their successors if the war goes on long enough, may be able to leverage the negotiations to include expanded nuclear weapons talks. Lesser powers can tag along as needed.
Quote from: Florestan on November 22, 2022, 11:16:18 AMIMNSHO, the best we can hope for is a frozen armistice akin to the North/South Korea one. May God grant it asap!
That would be an awful outcome. The US underwrites and directly provides security for the peninsula. Something much better is needed.
Quote from: Todd on November 22, 2022, 12:11:31 PM
Given some of the key issues, the US must be involved. Ukraine is weak and reliant on Uncle Sugar Sam for its survival.
Agreed.
QuoteI look to the history of the US and the USSR and then Russia and the various treaties they negotiated and abided by. Negotiation and settlement are possible between great powers. Indeed, if Biden and Blinken, or their successors if the war goes on long enough, may be able to leverage the negotiations to include expanded nuclear weapons talks. Lesser powers can tag along as needed.
Agreed again.
QuoteThat would be an awful outcome. The US underwrites and directly provides security for the peninsula. Something much better is needed.
Feel free to imagine something better.
Oh right, because larger powers negotiating over territory that isn't actually part of the negotiating countries has a really great history for the territories concerned. ::)
I heard this story this morning which I found to be quite interesting. On NPR. I found a link to it. Interesting to hear what one bar did in terms of requirements for entry. But there's much more to the story than just that. Give it a listen. It's short too.
"Georgians alarmed at the arrival of tens of thousands of Russian exiles".
https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/1138875895/georgians-alarmed-at-the-arrival-of-tens-of-thousands-of-russian-exiles?_ga=2.73488598.519554113.1669210048-271499436.1669210048
PD
Quote from: Florestan on November 22, 2022, 12:16:12 PMFeel free to imagine something better.
Imagining something better is easy. For instance, with the failure of NATO to work as intended in preventing war now that the USSR has been gone for a generation, and with the utter practical uselessness of international organizations like the UN made glaringly obvious (again), now is a perfect time to reevaluate the existing international system – and then dismantle it. The organizations themselves can stick around – there is no reason not to retain the UN as a punchline, for instance – and even NATO can remain as an organization, though in much diminished form, but the US should significantly reduce commitments to Europe. Instead, the US could focus on bilateral or small-scaled strategic partnerships with European and current NATO countries that matter (ie, the UK, France, Germany, and Turkey), and it could also reassess strategic relationships in Asia, with an eye to reducing military commitments and accepting spheres of influence and basically abandoning non-economic and non-strategic interests entirely. To be clear, that means jettisoning human rights, democracy promotion, and other similar objectives as actual policy goals. They can be retained as negotiating points, of course. A realist peace can then be established in Europe, a decreasingly important part of the world.
Such a beautiful scenario will never occur, so the next best bit of imagination involves Europe taking full responsibility for defending Europe, and for rebuilding and defending Ukraine. All EU member states and all European members outside the EU should start the work to establish a Ukrainian reconstruction fund right now. The same group of states should also begin work immediately on constructing the necessary command and control structures needed for continental defense, and should immediately devote all necessary public resources to defensive and offensive systems capabilities to defend Ukraine. They could even formulate a cohesive European foreign policy while they are at it. Given the fecklessness and bad faith displayed my many European governments, this will of course not happen.
Instead, what is much more likely to happen is that some but not all European governments will expand public resources spent on defense, buying extensively from the US, with some European arms manufacturing countries (eg, Sweden, France, Germany, and the UK) also benefitting. Command and control will continue to rely on the US. Some deployments in countries closer to Russia may end up utilizing mixed troop contingents. Alas, the US may up its deployments in Poland yet again, and it will likely maintain a larger naval presence in the Baltic, Mediterranean, and Aegean seas for years to come, and it could significantly increase its presence in Greece. NATO will likely be "strengthened", and more than just rhetorically, and of course the objective is yet another aggressive and reckless NATO expansion, and ultimately not just in Europe. How much the US spends on Ukrainian reconstruction remains to be seen, though one should expect to see the US expand use of extraterritoriality to seize Russian assets. This will almost certainly be applauded by residents of subject nations, even as it continues to expand US imperial power. (Not for nothing has the IBA warned of US use of extraterritoriality as a threat to EU sovereignty.) In short, the most likely outcome of the war will be expanded militarism, expanded US power, and a misguided continued focus on Europe by the US as the West fades and Asian powers become more critical in the future of global commerce, finance, and addressing other pressing global concerns.
Oh well.
The first stage of negotiating occurs during the fighting, and it usually is about who the negotiators are and what will be negotiated. We are there, at the "keep fighting/negotiating" stage.
The outcome of the Ukraine invasion is important for the confrontation with China. Russian defeat only has the benefit for China of making an attack on Russia feasible and in fact the stripping of Russian troops and equipment from the far East makes it so tempting I don't know if Xi can resist. Taiwan would turn a huge chunk of the PLA into corpses, so even if they won the regime might fall. One child mothers who lose their sons have no fear, and based on the state of turmoil we see today I would expect mass demonstrations beyond anything.
The sellers are not in charge, the buyers are. The US and its partners can interdict every ship they sail and bongo, no insurance anymore so no one ships anything from them. Neither China nor Russia can survive without trade. They still have their internal empires but facing outwards they are little better than colonies.
Well, darn them GMG "warmongers." anyway!
I realize Todd has a hard time comprehending this, but...
Human rights and democracy promotion, and the expansion of them to countries where they aren't now, is important for US strategic and economic goals.
Quote from: JBS on November 23, 2022, 07:32:00 PMI realize Todd has a hard time comprehending this, but...
Human rights and democracy promotion, and the expansion of them to countries where they aren't now, is important for US strategic and economic goals.
I am very familiar with arguments for the US actively promoting democracy and human rights around the world. I recognize that such arguments are innately messianic and have their origin in the Progressive Era, which was strongly influenced by European colonialism with its spurious "arguments". In essence, democracy and human rights promotion carry the strong stench of the White Man's Burden. Promoting democracy and human rights does not always or often align with the security or economic goals of the US, if at all.
Democracy is historically and culturally rare around the world. Democracy may or may not emerge in countries with no history of democracy, but it will never become universal. It is dangerous folly to think it will. It is not the responsibility of the US to promote democracy or human rights.
Your personalized post demonstrates the great difficulty many Westerners have in grasping the fact that Western ideas are neither universal nor universally desired.
The EU announces a new package of sanctions against Russia:
(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/0fffda08-98bc-491c-9db6-23b7b6c151e2.JPG)
From left to right: the prime minister of Finland, the president of the European Commission, the prime minister of Estonia and the deputy prime minister of Sweden.
As they say: a picture speaks a thousand words...
Quote from: Que on November 24, 2022, 09:48:32 AMAs they say: a picture speaks a thousand words...
Which would include the following words: four women in a cynically staged photo-op announce supposedly bold actions that purportedly include tough new sanctions against Russian oil, but that everyone in the world knows will be ignored by non-Western countries and circumvented by European powers willing to look the other way and buy Russian oil delivered via Greek and other shipping firms, as they've been doing all along. This illicit behavior will intensify if Russia really does shut off gas flowing through Ukraine and Turkey.
From The Economist: Europe faces an enduring crisis of energy and geopolitics; This will weaken it and threaten its global position (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/11/24/europe-faces-an-enduring-crisis-of-energy-and-geopolitics)
A good article from The Economist, at least in its descriptive elements. The prescriptive bits are dodgy. The mere idea of US taxpayers subsidizing Europeans directly is obscene.
And there's this rather critical bit about energy prices (aka, Russia using energy as a weapon):
Quote from: The EconomistVladimir Putin's energy weapon will exact a toll beyond Ukraine. Our modelling suggests that, in a normal winter, a 10% rise in real energy prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths. Hence the energy crunch this year could cause over 100,000 extra deaths of elderly people across Europe. If so, Mr Putin's energy weapon could take more lives outside Ukraine than his artillery, missiles and drones do directly within it.
No negotiations. Keep fighting.
Quote from: Que on November 24, 2022, 09:48:32 AMThe EU announces a new package of sanctions against Russia:
(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/0fffda08-98bc-491c-9db6-23b7b6c151e2.JPG)
From left to right: the prime minister of Finland, the president of the European Commission, the prime minister of Estonia and the deputy prime minister of Sweden.
As they say: a picture speaks a thousand words...
Hmm. Female power it seems. But maybe it's the female power, which in the long run will save us from the masculine aggression insofar as the women give up playing along on men's terms.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 10:55:59 AMBut maybe it's the female power, which in the long run will save us from the masculine aggression insofar as the women give up playing along on men's terms.
History suggests that is wishful thinking.
Quote from: Que on November 24, 2022, 09:48:32 AMThe EU announces a new package of sanctions against Russia:
(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/0fffda08-98bc-491c-9db6-23b7b6c151e2.JPG)
From left to right: the prime minister of Finland, the president of the European Commission, the prime minister of Estonia and the deputy prime minister of Sweden.
As they say: a picture speaks a thousand words...
Yes it does: an old, unattractive lady (EU) stands among three sexy babes... ;D
Quote from: Todd on November 24, 2022, 10:58:25 AMHistory suggests that is wishful thinking.
It's wishful thinking which keeps us alive in the widest sense.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 10:59:05 AMYes it does: an old, unattractive lady (EU) stands among three sexy babes... ;D
Men place too much importance on women's appearance.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 11:04:52 AMIt's wishful thinking which keeps us alive in the widest sense.
History shows that women, especially those in positions of power, can be just as violent, ruthless and bellicose as men.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 11:07:07 AMMen place too much importance on women's appearance.
It's human nature (or, if you prefer, a product of evolution). ;)
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 11:04:52 AMIt's wishful thinking which keeps us alive in the widest sense.
No, not really. It is pragmatic acceptance of facts and adaptive creativity in solving problems that keeps us alive. Wishful thinking is usually a harmful diversion.
Your bit of wishful thinking ignores ancient and contemporary history and is also sexist.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 11:10:25 AMHistory shows that women, especially those in positions of power, can be just as violent, ruthless and bellicose as men.
Indeed. This was why I wrote:
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 10:55:59 AMHmm. Female power it seems. But maybe it's the female power, which in the long run will save us from the masculine aggression insofar as the women give up playing along on men's terms.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 11:15:18 AMIndeed. This was why I wrote:
You have just agreed that feminine aggression is no different than masculine aggression so singling out a specific sex as aggressive is moot, or even sexist. It's not men's terms and it's not women's terms. It's human nature's terms.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 11:28:42 AMYou have just agreed that feminine aggression is no different than masculine aggression so singling out a specific sex as aggressive is moot, or even sexist. It's not men's terms and it's not women's terms. It's human nature's terms.
No. Because you had the words "CAN BE". You've gone and changed that to "IS". These are not the same statements.
I can happily agree that women can be as tall as men without agreeing that there is no difference in average height.
Quote from: Madiel on November 24, 2022, 11:31:25 AMNo. Because you had the words "CAN BE". You've gone and changed that to "IS". These are not the same statements.
I can happily agree that women can be as tall as men without agreeing that there is no difference in average height.
I should have thought that when it comes to history, "can be" equals "is" (as in, Elisabeth I can be as ruthless as Henry VIII), but nevertheless I'll reformulate it : history, ever since it began to be recorded up until nowadays, has been full of women who were just as violent, ruthless and bellicose as men.
Quote from: Todd on November 24, 2022, 11:12:37 AMNo, not really. It is pragmatic acceptance of facts and adaptive creativity in solving problems that keeps us alive. Wishful thinking is usually a harmful diversion.
I mean keeps us alive mentally for the short time we live, of course not physically where anything can happen.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 11:11:45 AMIt's human nature (or, if you prefer, a product of evolution). ;)
I'm naive enough to se humans as more than bare animals.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 11:39:06 AMI should have thought that when it comes to history, "can be" equals "is" (as in, Elisabeth I can be as ruthless as Henry VIII), but nevertheless I'll reformulate it : history, ever since it began to be recorded up until nowadays, has been full of women who were just as violent, ruthless and bellicose as men.
Yes, you can list some terrifying examples, but I am also so naive to think, that women generally are more species-preserving than men - maybe for natural reasons.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 11:39:06 AMI should have thought that when it comes to history, "can be" equals "is" (as in, Elisabeth I can be as ruthless as Henry VIII), but nevertheless I'll reformulate it : history, ever since it began to be recorded up until nowadays, has been full of women who were just as violent, ruthless and bellicose as men.
Well no, "can be" is not the appropriate wording. The claim would be that Elizabeth "was" as ruthless as Henry.
But now that we've got the linguistic problem out of the way... I'm not sure that I agree with the point you're making or the relevance of old history to the way that power is wielded in modern times. Both men and women fall on a spectrum. I don't think the spectrum is quite the same. That you can find particular women who are "masculine" in their behaviour does not mean that all women would be, though for a long time in history the way for a woman to succeed and rise to power was pretty much to behave in a "masculine" fashion. But I think in some parts of the world that is changing. It's no accident where the women in that photo come from.
If you want to talk about Elizabeth I, behaving "like a man" was pretty much a mandatory requirement for her own survival. For the first part of her reign there were people barely tolerating that she was female. After all, the rules explicitly preferred a male ruler and her own father had been obsessed with having a male heir. I would like to think that things have changed a bit over 600 years.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 11:46:24 AMYes, you can list some terrifying examples, but I am also so naive to think, that women generally are more species-preserving than men - maybe for natural reasons.
Natural reasons dictate that it takes both women and men to preserve the species. ;)
Quote from: Madiel on November 24, 2022, 11:52:49 AMIt's no accident where the women in that photo come from.
Well, three of them come from the same region where Margarita Simonyan or the late Daria Dugina preach(ed) violence and war, even nuclear war.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 11:42:47 AMI'm naive enough to se humans as more than bare animals.
Were all those painters, sculptors and writers who celebrated feminine beauty bare animals?
Am I a bare animal for suggesting that Sana Marin is younger and more attractive than Ursula von der Leyen? (that the former is younger than the latter is not even a matter of contention, it's a fact; I concede that some people are rather attracted to older women, though. :) ) Actually, imho the best of the lot is the Estonian. :)
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 11:40:32 AMI mean keeps us alive mentally for the short time we live, of course not physically where anything can happen.
Not really. Some people are prone to wishful thinking, some not. What applies to you does not apply to everyone.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 11:46:24 AMYes, you can list some terrifying examples, but I am also so naive to think, that women generally are more species-preserving than men - maybe for natural reasons.
This is the very definition of sexism. It is also questionable.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 11:59:36 AMWell, three of them come from the same region where Margarita Simonyan or the late Daria Dugina preach(ed) violence and war, even nuclear war.
It's cynical stagecraft, though somewhat sophomoric in nature. For proper cynical stagecraft, see any SOTU address since the early 80s.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 11:59:36 AMWell, three of them come from the same region where Margarita Simonyan or the late Daria Dugina preach(ed) violence and war, even nuclear war.
You're kidding. You seriously think that Russia and the Nordic countries are "the same region" culturally?
Go back to the Ottoman Empire then, Andrei.
Quote from: Madiel on November 24, 2022, 12:17:26 PMYou're kidding. You seriously think that Russia and Scandinavia are "the same region" culturally?
You wrote "where the women in that photo come from". You didn't specify "culturally". Geographically speaking, they are all in close proximity with Russia --- and Estonia and Finland are not even part of Scandinavia, which technically speaking means only Norway and Sweden.
Quote from: Madiel on November 24, 2022, 12:17:26 PMGo back to the Ottoman Empire then, Andrei.
Actually, we do have more in common with the culture of the Ottoman Empire (which in its own way and region was just as cosmopolitan as the Austrian Empire and in some respects even more) than with the culture of Scandinavia --- and I regard it as a positive thing. :)
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 12:07:32 PMWere all those painters, sculptors and writers who celebrated feminine beauty bare animals?
Am I a bare animal for suggesting that Sana Marin is younger and more attractive than Ursula von der Leyen? (that the former is younger than the latter is not even a matter of contention, it's a fact; I concede that some people are rather attracted to older women, though. :) ) Actually, imho the best of the lot is the Estonian. :)
Your objection is besides the point. I don't deny that we are animals. But I suppose that we are more than that.
But of course, if we only obey our animal instincts we are nothing but animals.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 12:34:13 PMYour objection is besides the point.
I raised no objection. I just asked two questions --- which you declined to answer. :)
Quote from: Todd on November 24, 2022, 12:11:47 PMNot really. Some people are prone to wishful thinking, some not. What applies to you does not apply to everyone.
Yes. many people are more cynical. They are the ones who ruin it for the rest of us.
QuoteThis is the very definition of sexism. It is also questionable.
I suppose sexism is the tendency to point to - or even invent - different characteristics of the sexes. But some of these different characteristics may have positive implications.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 12:36:16 PMI raised no objection. I just asked two questions --- which you declined to answer. :)
Read between the lines.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 24, 2022, 12:43:00 PMI suppose sexism is the tendency to point to - or ven invent - different characteristics of the sexes. But some of these different characteristics may have positive implications.
This is questionable as well, particularly if you invent some traits that somehow translate into supposedly preferable policy choices if certain impossible conditions are met. Basically, you are putting women on a pedestal, which is a grievous mistake.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 12:29:41 PMYou wrote "where the women in that photo come from". You didn't specify "culturally". Geographically speaking, they are all in close proximity with Russia --- and Estonia and Finland are not even part of Scandinavia, which technically speaking means only Norway and Sweden.
Actually, we do have more in common with the culture of the Ottoman Empire (which in its own way and region was just as cosmopolitan as the Austrian Empire and in some respects even more) than with the culture of Scandinavia --- and I regard it as a positive thing. :)
I edited to Nordic countries to get past the different meaning of "Scandinavia" in different languages.
But whatever, you're clearly in one of THOSE moods and the conversation is unproductive.
Quote from: Madiel on November 24, 2022, 05:38:43 PMI edited to Nordic countries to get past the different meaning of "Scandinavia" in different languages.
But whatever, you're clearly in one of THOSE moods and the conversation is unproductive.
I missed your edit, it was getting late in Eflak and I went to sleep. :)
Of course there are enormous cultural differences between Russia and the Nordic countries but that wasn't the issue. The issue was the suggestion that if you put women in power instead of men the world would be more peaceful and less violent. I disagree but let's not derail the thread.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 11:39:06 AMI should have thought that when it comes to history, "can be" equals "is" (as in, Elisabeth I can be as ruthless as Henry VIII), but nevertheless I'll reformulate it : history, ever since it began to be recorded up until nowadays, has been full of women who were just as violent, ruthless and bellicose as men.
Can't disagree with that: I present Catherine the Great as an example. Women may be more thoughtful in the application of brutality but that is not indicative of the reserve of it they would happily bring to bear once the decision is made.
8)
Quote from: Secretary of State Hillary ClintonWe came, we saw, he died.
The he being Mr Gaddafi.
Women are quite capable of bloodlust and viciousness on par with men. The women selected for the cynical photo-op regarding sanctions all have one thing in common: they are personages in power in ineffectual entities. Put women in charge of great powers, with their scope and reach and proclivity for relying on militarism to resolve conflict, and missiles will fly.
A timely article from BBC on this topic (I believe this may be a case of "intersectionality", to use academic terminology): Ukraine war: Merkel says she lacked power to influence Putin (//http://Ukraine%20war:%20Merkel%20says%20she%20lacked%20power%20to%20influence%20Putin)
Merkel was head of a powerful country. This just demonstrates the silliness of the photo-op.
Der Spiegel has the full published interview with Ms Merkel.
Quote from: Todd on November 25, 2022, 06:04:20 AMPut women in charge of great powers, with their scope and reach and proclivity for relying on militarism to resolve conflict, and missiles will fly.
This.
Quote from: Todd on November 25, 2022, 06:04:20 AMPut women in charge of great powers, with their scope and reach and proclivity for relying on militarism to resolve conflict, and missiles will fly.
Sexism .. or not?
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 25, 2022, 10:30:15 AMSexism .. or not?
No. It illustrates that there would be no appreciable difference between the sexes. Women are neither more warlike nor less warlike than men. When they lead great powers, they must work within the same systems, face the same institutional inertia, have the same policy options at their disposal, face the same political environment, and so on. Relying on the great (wo)man theory of history to proclaim this or that individual leader will have monumental influence of the course of events and the actions of powerful states certainly has attractions, but in the modern nation state it is inaccurate. It is debatable how accurate such an approach has ever been.
Of course, had you read the two sentences preceding your quote, that would have been obvious.
Quote from: (: premont :) on November 25, 2022, 10:30:15 AMSexism .. or not?
Rather historical realism.
Look, I have my own quarrels with
Todd and I am in disagreement with him on lots of issues --- but in this respect he is spot on. I mean, guys, face it honestly:
Madeleine Albright,
Condoleezza Rice and
Hillary Clinton were at least as hawkish as
Donald Rumsfeld,
Colin Powell or
George W. Bush, Jr. Compared to all of them,
Trump was a sissy.
Instead of wishfully thinking that women would use great power in peaceful and non-violent ways, I wishfully think that great power be reduced to impotence, so that irrespective of the sex of any given leader, they be not able to wreak havoc even if they wanted to.
And this is going to be my last post on this specific issue.
An alternative view is that heterosexual men do all SORTS of weird things when faced with a woman. You seem to get terribly distracted.
Quote from: Florestan on November 24, 2022, 10:59:05 AMYes it does: an old, unattractive lady (EU) stands among three sexy babes... ;D
I cringe at all discussion of the attractiveness of women in power. But that post compels me to ask: by what shallow definition could Ursula van der Leyen possibly be deemed unattractive?
I'm guessing her age.
Putin with his shirt off does nothing for me. Just saying.
Quote from: Madiel on November 25, 2022, 01:11:59 PMAn alternative view is that heterosexual men do all SORTS of weird things when faced with a woman. You seem to get terribly distracted.
This might explain why the two Greats, Alexander and Frederick, were so succesful in their military exploits: they didn't get distracted. But then again there is that other guy, Napoleon. :)
As far as I'm concerned, Ursula van der Leyen could get it. >:D
Women in power are neither more nor less venal, greedy, devious or inspiring than men. The only significant difference l can think of would be the greater possibility of a male in power underestimating his female opponent. But that is a perceptual aspect, and not connected to any objective reality.
Quote from: LKB on November 26, 2022, 04:30:43 AMWomen in power are neither more nor less venal, greedy, devious or inspiring than men. The only significant difference l can think of would be the greater possibility of a male in power underestimating his female opponent.
Hah! ;D
Reminds me of a great podcast episode I heard about a champion female poker player, and how part of her winning strategy was to work out what kind of men she was dealing with. Including those who didn't believe they were going to lose to a woman.
Russian troops are starting to die from the cold in their ditches and trenches:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/26/2138419/-Winter-begins-to-take-its-toll-on-Russia-s-army-in-Ukraine
Looks like the winter will be a strong ally to Ukraine....
Quote from: Que on November 27, 2022, 02:03:56 AMRussian troops are starting to die from the cold in their ditches and trenches:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/26/2138419/-Winter-begins-to-take-its-toll-on-Russia-s-army-in-Ukraine
Looks like the winter will a strong ally to Ukraine....
I am truly shocked, it makes me really sad, unbelievably so.
Quote from: Harry on November 27, 2022, 04:34:55 AMI am truly shocked, it makes me really sad, unbelievably so.
It is rather shocking, and daytime temperatures are still above freezing point. Tens of thousands of troops will soon be exposed to much harsher conditions.
Some predictions are that the winter will end many more Russian lives than Ukrainian bullets and shells. If so, this war could be over sooner than anyone expected.
Quote from: Que on November 27, 2022, 04:51:15 AMSome predictions are that the winter will end many more Russian lives than Ukrainian bullets and shells. If so, this war could be over sooner than anyone expected.
The Economist predicts 100,000+ European civilian deaths due to higher energy prices this winter. That should be more shocking and saddening.
Keep fighting. No negotiations.
Quote from: Que on November 27, 2022, 04:51:15 AMIt is rather shocking, and daytime temperatures are still above freezing point. Tens of thousands of troops will soon be exposed to much harsher conditions.
Some predictions are that the winter will end many more Russian lives than Ukrainian bullets and shells. If so, this war could be over sooner than anyone expected.
Putin and the military leadership won't care. Lives are expendable.
Quote from: Que on November 27, 2022, 04:51:15 AMIt is rather shocking, and daytime temperatures are still above freezing point. Tens of thousands of troops will soon be exposed to much harsher conditions.
Some predictions are that the winter will end many more Russian lives than Ukrainian bullets and shells. If so, this war could be over sooner than anyone expected.
So General Winter will be fighting against Russia. Another plot twist.
Quote from: JBS on November 27, 2022, 06:01:52 AMSo General Winter will be fighting against Russia. Another plot twist.
Winter fought for Russia when the Russians could retreat hundreds of miles into their own territory. In Ukraine retreat more than a few miles is defeat.
Another twist... Is Russia finally running out of long range missiles? ::)
"Russia is firing ageing cruise missiles stripped of their nuclear warheads at Ukrainian targets because Vladimir Putin's stocks are so depleted, the [British] Ministry of Defence has suggested.
An intelligence update from the British MoD on Saturday said the desperate improvisation by the Russian president's struggling forces are "unlikely to achieve reliable effects". The evidence cited is pictures of apparently shot down AS-15 Kent air-launched cruise missiles, which were said to have been designed in the 1980s as a nuclear delivery system.
The MoD said the nuclear warheads had probably been replaced with ballast, with the Kremlin's hope probably that the missiles will distract Ukrainian air defences. "Although such an inert system will still produce some damage through the missile's kinetic energy and any unspent fuel, it is unlikely to achieve reliable effects against intended targets," a statement said.
"Whatever Russia's intent, this improvisation highlights the level of depletion in Russia's stock of long-range missiles."
Quote from: Que on November 27, 2022, 09:18:28 AMAnother twist... Is Russia finally running out of long range missiles? ::)
Maybe, but then Russia has been running out of equipment and men and has been barely able to prosecute the war since at least March.
Keep fighting. No negotiations.
Western countries have the option of withdrawing protection of Russia from retaliation for destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. What's necessary is for the Ukes to agree to limit their strikes to legit military targets. If they agree they will get longer range precision weapons they have been denied up to now.
Russia can't survive for long without protection from the US restrictions on provided weaponry. I suggest that by incrementally providing one type of long range weapon, then another one and so on, Russia will realize the price for continuing the war is too high. Then we can have real negotiations, not the fantasy kind.
Russia won't run out of missiles. They will use older, more inaccurate ones and try to conserve the better ones.
Quote from: drogulus on November 27, 2022, 09:33:43 AMRussia can't survive for long without protection from the US restrictions on provided weaponry. I suggest that by incrementally providing one type of long range weapon, then another one and so on, Russia will realize the price for continuing the war is too high.
Or Putin will go nuclear, if all other options have run out.
He said so.
Quote from: Herman on November 27, 2022, 11:08:11 PMOr Putin will go nuclear, if all other options have run out.
He said so.
Why hasn't Putin gone nuclear? Is he waiting for total defeat for nukes to become an option?
If Putin wants to commit suicide there are easier ways that don't involve the participation of the nuclear chain of command. These people are not suicidal.
Belarus is a stressful place not only for the clowntator but also his minions.
The foreign minister died suddenly. The diagnosis is he talked too much.
Luka has changed his kitchen staff.
Quote from: Florestan on November 25, 2022, 11:00:53 AMInstead of wishfully thinking that women would use great power in peaceful and non-violent ways, I wishfully think that great power be reduced to impotence, so that irrespective of the sex of any given leader, they be not able to wreak havoc even if they wanted to.
Totally!
U.S. Pledges $53 Million to Help Fix Ukraine's Electrical Grid
American officials said they hoped the commitment would spur allies to make similar donations, as many Ukrainians head into winter without power or water. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/29/world/europe/nato-ukraine.html)
Another bottomless money pit that corrupt Ukrainians can use to pilfer millions and millions and possibly billions of dollars and euros over the coming years. Oh, yeah, some regular Ukrainians may benefit. But that's of secondary importance in this story. The opening sentence is the bigger story:
Quote from: Edward Wong and Steven ErlangerOfficials of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Tuesday stressed their commitment to eventually allowing Ukraine to become a member of the military alliance.
This ensures that the war will drag on. It also ensures that many more Ukrainian civilians will die. Hopefully, for the sake of hapless Ukrainian citizens, it is public posturing meant to be negotiated away. Fewer Ukrainian civilians would needlessly die. But make no mistake, more Ukrainian civilians will needlessly die.
Keep fighting. No negotiations.
Two takes on the same speech:
Ukraine Anger Over Von Der Leyen's Unverified '100,000 Dead Soldiers' Claim (https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-von-der-leyen-death-toll-1763553)
EU Flubs Speech on Ukraine War Losses—to the Kremlin's Delight (https://www.thedailybeast.com/european-commission-president-ursula-von-der-leyen-flubs-speech-on-ukraine-war-losses-to-kremlins-delight)
So much propaganda, so little time.
Poland will be the great power in eastern Europe. If the rest of Europe cheaps out on its own defense there will be a belt of protection from the Norwegian border with Russia down through the Baltic states to Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Turkey.
The US will have partners that are highly motivated and not afflicted with Franco-German peacemongery, an illusion they can't afford. This structure is a retooling of a century old idea called the Intermarium, an improvement since the original idea didn't include the Scandinavians.
In June the US announced the permanent basing of troops in Poland and Romania.
From Politico.eu: NATO countries must ramp up arms production for battles ahead, Ukraine says (https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-countries-must-ramp-up-arms-production-for-battles-ahead-ukraine-dmytro-kuleba/)
Tail tries to wag dog.
Quote from: drogulus on November 30, 2022, 09:33:22 AMIf the rest of Europe cheaps out on its own defense there will be a belt of protection from the Norwegian border with Russia down through the Baltic states to Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.
Fixed. ;)
A lesson in how different press outlets generate headlines:
WaPo: Biden says he'd meet with Putin if he's interested in ending war with Ukraine (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/01/biden-macron-state-dinner-obama-georgia/)
The Hill: Biden has 'no immediate plans' to contact Putin (https://thehill.com/policy/international/3758356-biden-has-no-immediate-plans-to-contact-putin/)
The president chose his words very carefully, you see.
Keep fighting. No negotiations.
Nice Geo. Will piece for Th'giving:
QuoteTimothy Snyder, the Yale historian, sees Ukraine's struggle as the hinge on which history will turn, just as Czechoslovakia was, unhappily, the hinge in 1938. Writing in Foreign Affairs ("Ukraine Holds the Future"), Snyder argues that Vladimir Putin's rhetoric about Ukraine resembles Adolf Hitler's about Czechoslovakia "to the point of plagiarism": A neighboring democracy is a tyranny; the state in question is illegitimate; the nation is a fiction. Appeasement — the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia in an attempt to slake Hitler's appetite for conquest — ordained a dark future. Ukraine's resistance to Putin refutes his assertion (in July 2021) that events 10 centuries ago sealed forever the unity of Russia and Ukraine.
Well, and darn them Czech "warmongers" ....
I wonder what the French for "warmonger" might be:
Quote"We will never urge the Ukrainians to make a compromise which will not be acceptable for them," Macron said. "Because they are so brave, and they defend precisely their lives, their nation, and our principles.
ALL nations are "fiction" in some sense. They are constructs.
And the Kenyan ambassador to the UN answered that particular line of thinking superbly back in February. People in Africa live with the nations that Europeans constructed.
European Union officials set Russian oil price cap at $60 a barrel (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/russia-oil-price-cap-g-7-outline-how-it-is-going-to-work.html)
Yay! Decisive,
bold action sure to bring the Russian Bear to its knees!!
Analysis: Russian oil revenues could weather EU ban, G7 price cap (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-revenues-could-weather-eu-ban-g7-price-cap-2022-12-02/)
Quote from: Olesya Astakhova"I think that the cap being discussed by the EU will be close to the price level at which Russia is currently selling oil, Alexei Gromov of the Moscow-based Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation said.
"If the price cap is around $60 per barrel, Russia will continue to export its oil comfortably."
Naysayers gonna say nay, ain't they?
Online news sources, including energy specialists, report per barrel production prices between $20-$50/barrel in Russia. Choose the number you prefer and makes you most comfortable, I guess. In the meantime, the overnight low temperature in Kyiv is at 26°F. Keep fighting. No negotiations.
Quote from: Florestan on December 01, 2022, 08:47:52 AMFixed. ;)
Oops.
The Intermarium idea is that all of these countries are squozed between Russia and Germany and are super vulnerable both ways. It would be the wiser choice to form ones own gang, and with Finland and Sweden added to the other countries. Thus if the NATO collapse-o-philes get their way it will do them no "good".
Quote from: drogulus on December 02, 2022, 09:04:29 AMOops.
Technically speaking, between
Slovakia and
Romania there is
Hungary as well, also a NATO member but given Orban's openly pro-Russian, pro-Putin stance I'm not sure whether they are an asset or a liability. According to a former Romanian Foreign Affairs minister who is well versed and well informed in all matters diplomatic, Hungary is no more privy to top secret NATO information sharing, which would only make sense in the context.
Quote from: Florestan on December 02, 2022, 09:42:40 AMthere is Hungary as well, also a NATO member but given Orban's openly pro-Russian, pro-Putin stance I'm not sure whether they are an asset or a liability.
Hungary is an asset in that it can be used as a giant weapons depot and killing field, kind of like Ukraine.
It's not NATO that turned Ukraine into a killing field --- it's Russia.
NATO's irrelevant, really. Putin's a psychopath megalomaniac who dreams of restoring the USSR - the territories of that failed state. He attacked because he met with Biden on video - realized the U.S. had a weak president, and took advantage of that, instead of being warned off with direct U.S. troop involvement, etc. etc. He's not done yet - many more Russians are going to die before he and/or the regime decides it is time for a change.
Quote from: Florestan on December 02, 2022, 09:42:40 AMTechnically speaking, between Slovakia and Romania there is Hungary as well, also a NATO member but given Orban's openly pro-Russian, pro-Putin stance I'm not sure whether they are an asset or a liability. According to a former Romanian Foreign Affairs minister who is well versed and well informed in all matters diplomatic, Hungary is no more privy to top secret NATO information sharing, which would only make sense in the context.
Yes, that was a non-oops.
Quote from: Florestan on December 02, 2022, 12:41:56 PMIt's not NATO that turned Ukraine into a killing field --- it's Russia.
No no, Andrei. You see, when an abusive husband bashes his wife, it's her fault because she dared to leave the house and have outside interests or friends.
Quote from: Florestan on December 02, 2022, 12:41:56 PMIt's not NATO that turned Ukraine into a killing field --- it's Russia.
This is a contrafactual assertion if ever there was one. The US and NATO allies have poured weapons into Ukraine, some of which did not end up on the black market, and those weapons have directly led to prolonging the war. This is no secret. As Lloyd Austin has publicly stated, the US will use this war to weaken Russia. It's policy.
That's in addition to the US pushing for the reckless and aggressive expansion of NATO, establishing the conditions that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Quote from: Todd on December 02, 2022, 02:04:17 PMThis is a contrafactual assertion if ever there was one. The US and NATO allies have poured weapons into Ukraine, some of which did not end up on the black market, and those weapons have directly led to prolonging the war. This is no secret. As Lloyd Austin has publicly stated, the US will use this war to weaken Russia. It's policy.
That's in addition to the US pushing for the reckless and aggressive expansion of NATO, establishing the conditions that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I love it when you ignore my posts.
Quote from: Todd on December 02, 2022, 08:32:27 AMKeep fighting. No negotiations.
But you don't want negotiation. You want capitulation.
Quote from: Madiel on December 02, 2022, 02:08:32 PMI love it when you ignore my posts.
He's not ignoring your posts.
He's ignoring reality.
Fiona Hill is a world class Putinologist and knows things.
The US provided minimal help to Ukraine between 2014 and February 2022. Peacemongery reigned supreme under Obama and TrumPutinism, an advanced form of peacemongery, under the Bad Orange Entity.
In order to understand "no more war" during war start here. It's the invadee that's to be blamed, not the invader. Ukraine shouldn't wear short skirts or it will tempt the rapist.
Putin decided not to join the European system, which is one thing and not in itself a crime. But then he attacks Europe and that's as crimey as it gets. NATO didn't make him do it. We tried to peacemonger him into seeing reason, and that didn't work because Putin wants the empire of his youth back, or as much of it as he can grab.
Quote from: JBS on December 02, 2022, 03:48:16 PMHe's not ignoring your posts.
He's ignoring reality.
I'm sure he can manage both as he continues to blame the wife's friends for helping her deal with her abusive ex.
Quote from: Scion7 on December 02, 2022, 12:57:29 PMNATO's irrelevant, really. Putin's a psychopath megalomaniac who dreams of restoring the USSR - the territories of that failed state.
It's not such a great idea to assume one's opponent is insane.
It makes more sense to assume Putin is a rationally operating man, with an entirely different moral view. Yes, the war's a mess, with way too many casualties, but that's not because he's an idiot; he just doesn't care about casualties. There's quite a Russian tradition there.
The 'cultural' issues he keeps talking about are possibly just window dressing. His family values platform (antigay etc) was just to get the orthodox church on his side after the protests against his illegal third term as Prez.
What Pute is really about is just amassing as much wealth for himself and his cronies as is possible. The eastern part of Ukraine is very rich in petro-stuff and precious metals. He wants that. He's probably the richest man on earth, much richer than Musk or Bezos, we just don't know, because it's all hidden away.
Quote from: Todd on December 02, 2022, 04:12:06 PMIncorrect.
This word should be inscribed on your tombstone. ;D
(Sorry, couldn't resist.)
Quote from: Herman on December 02, 2022, 06:54:19 PMhe just doesn't care about casualties. There's quite a Russian tradition there.
Correct.
Quote from: Madiel on December 02, 2022, 05:18:50 PMI'm sure he can manage both as he continues to blame the wife's friends for helping her deal with her abusive ex.
Mind-boggling, really.
Quote from: Herman on December 02, 2022, 06:54:19 PMWhat Pute is really about is just amassing as much wealth for himself and his cronies as is possible. The eastern part of Ukraine is very rich in petro-stuff and precious metals. He wants that. He's probably the richest man on earth, much richer than Musk or Bezos, we just don't know, because it's all hidden away.
I'm inclined to believe that his rhetoric - about Ukraine as betraying the Russian tradition by opting for the West - is his genuine belief, and a justification of the war. Even a Puting needs a justification.
Ukraine war shows Europe too reliant on U.S., Finland PM says (https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-war-shows-europe-too-reliant-us-finland-pm-says-2022-12-02/)
The Finnish Prime Minister can dance and she's sharp as a tack. European security dependence is by design, both by Americans and feckless European politicians. Perhaps Ms Marin can be in the vanguard of European leaders who do more than talk about the problem.
Another example of a rock solid op-ed from a trusted name in journalism, here the Graun:
Russia's vicious tactics in Ukraine serve only to further expose its weakness; Moscow had hoped to easily capture Ukraine – having totally failed, it has resorted to simply destroying it (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/02/russia-vicious-tactics-ukraine-further-expose-weakness?utm_term=638b48560fa6775fd748c90b1d9a12d4&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUS&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUS_email)
I'm not sure the word "simply" applies, but it could be a usage difference. At least the Graun is on the leading edge of analysis regarding this war.
Quote from: Herman on December 02, 2022, 06:54:19 PMIt's not such a great idea to assume one's opponent is insane.
I didn't.
I said he was a psychopath and a megalomaniac - that make him EVIL, not "insane." He was a mass-murderer before he was ever the head of the gov't.
Quote from: Scion7 on December 03, 2022, 06:18:54 AMI didn't.
I said he was a psychopath and a megalomaniac - that make him EVIL, not "insane." He was a mass-murderer before he was ever the head of the gov't.
Claims of psychopathy, megalomania, and/or other psychological disorders are run of the mill propaganda. It is precisely like comparing <insert evildoer du jour here> to Hitler or invoking WWII in any way.
The best propaganda is the type that people not in power propagate on their own.
Quote from: Scion7 on December 03, 2022, 06:18:54 AMI didn't.
I said he was a psychopath and a megalomaniac - that make him EVIL, not "insane."
Really? In that case we read those terms differently. In my dix "psychopath" and "insane" are virtually synonymous.
Quote from: Herman on December 02, 2022, 06:54:19 PMWhat Pute is really about is just amassing as much wealth for himself and his cronies as is possible. The eastern part of Ukraine is very rich in petro-stuff and precious metals. He wants that. He's probably the richest man on earth, much richer than Musk or Bezos, we just don't know, because it's all hidden away.
This I suspect is largely true. But I think there's a little bit of vanity as well; that he thinks about how he'll be seen to stack up against the strong Russian czars and dictators of the past.
Quote from: Todd on December 03, 2022, 06:37:20 AMClaims of psychopathy, megalomania, and/or other psychological disorders are run of the mill propaganda. It is precisely like comparing <insert evildoer du jour here> to Hitler or invoking WWII in any way.
The best propaganda is the type that people not in power propagate on their own.
So do you believe in the existence of sociopaths at all? Or do you just doubt the ability of other humans to recognize them when they see one? Obviously you can't, but many of us are competent judges of human character.
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 03, 2022, 10:46:25 AMSo do you believe in the existence of sociopaths at all? Or do you just doubt the ability of other humans to recognize them when they see one?
They exist. Clinical psychologists and psychiatrists are the only people qualified to make accurate diagnoses. Everything else is gossip. Everything online is internet gossip.
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 03, 2022, 10:46:25 AMObviously you can't, but many of us are competent judges of human character.
Incorrect.
Quote from: Todd on December 03, 2022, 06:37:20 AMClaims of psychopathy, megalomania, and/or other psychological disorders are run of the mill propaganda. It is precisely like comparing <insert evildoer du jour here> to Hitler or invoking WWII in any way.
In any way? Ever? I suspect you're finding such analogies not so much false as inconvenient.
There is much about Hitlers rise to power and the wider road to war that we should be on the lookout for constantly and raise the alarm early. Especially at a time when people feel freer in saying openly that the admire them and openly say they are working from their model.
Quote from: Todd on December 03, 2022, 11:52:41 AMClinical psychologists and psychiatrists are the only people qualified to make accurate diagnoses
That's true --- but it doesn't in the least imply that laymen cannot/should not/may not accurately describe this or that person as "psychopath", "sociopath" or "insane".
Quote from: Florestan on December 03, 2022, 12:02:23 PMbut it doesn't in the least imply that laymen cannot/should not/may not accurately describe this or that person as "psychopath", "sociopath" or "insane".
Actually, it does.
Quote from: SimonNZ on December 03, 2022, 11:54:01 AMThere is much about Hitlers rise to power and the wider road to war that we should be on the lookout for constantly and raise the alarm early. Especially at a time when people feel freer in saying openly that the admire them and openly say they are working from their model.
I have no doubt that Hitler was an insane psychopath-cum-sociopath (pace
@Todd )... But so are lots of people around us right now. It takes a very special historical context to enable them. I don't think there is any Hitler right now or in the making.
Quote from: Florestan on December 03, 2022, 12:16:57 PMIncorrect.
Nope. You described gossip. It can be challenging for some people to distinguish between the two.
Quote from: Todd on December 03, 2022, 12:08:38 PMActually, it does.
We are required to make lay psychological assessments of the people we encounter every singly day. It's a necessity.
And of politicians, we are required to assess if they are compulsive liars, raging narsists or unhinged or dangerous with some regularity, and without expecting any word from the professional world.
Do you genuinely not?
You'll find that even ignoring people is smoother on the new forum software.
Quote from: Florestan on December 03, 2022, 12:29:48 PMIf for you the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing destruction of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure is gossip, then right on my ignore list you go right now --- this time for good, so help me God and fuck your musical knowledge altogether!
Unqualified non-professionals like you, BasilValentine, and everyone else on this forum who has so far offered any type of a mental health diagnosis of Putin or anyone else are merely gossiping. Only clinical psychologists and psychiatrists can offer actual mental health diagnoses.
At no time did I assert that the Russo-Ukrainian War is gossip.
Quote from: Florestan on December 03, 2022, 12:29:48 PMthis time for good, so help me God and fuck your musical knowledge altogether!
Oh well.
Quote from: Florestan on December 03, 2022, 12:29:48 PMEnough is enough, you stinking Putinist troll!
Precisely like references to Hitler, Nazis, WWII, and mental health, rejoinders relying on any variant of Putin/Russian supporter/apologist/troll/bot/whatnot are merely self-selected propaganda statements.
Guess I'm on Todd's ignore list.
"Oh well"
Quote from: SimonNZ on December 03, 2022, 12:20:05 PMWe are required to make lay psychological assessments of the people we encounter every singly day. It's a necessity.
Yes. And people who can't often end up as supporters of and apologists for monsters like Trump and Putin. :)
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 03, 2022, 01:09:41 PMmonsters like Trump and Putin
Oh, come on! What aggressive, unprovoked, international-law-defying war did Trump start?
Quote from: Florestan on December 03, 2022, 01:14:20 PMOh, come on! What aggressive, unprovoked, international-law-defying war did Trump start?
I want to answer "no international wars, just the very brink of civil war", but US politics is verboten.
There's more than one flavor of "monster".
Quote from: Florestan on December 03, 2022, 01:14:20 PMOh, come on! What aggressive, unprovoked, international-law-defying war did Trump start?
He was generally more interested in defying domestic law. But it is also worth noting he cuddled up to strong-man leaders like Putin.
EDIT: And now, Trump is explicitly calling for the end of the US Constitution. The man is a total menace.
Quote from: Todd on December 03, 2022, 12:40:55 PMUnqualified non-professionals like you, BasilValentine, and everyone else on this forum who has so far offered any type of a mental health diagnosis of Putin or anyone else are merely gossiping. Only clinical psychologists and psychiatrists can offer actual mental health diagnoses.
Your objection is frivolous and uninformed. The term sociopath describes no condition in the DSM-5 and thus its use is not in the purview, exclusive or otherwise, of mental health professionals. In standard usage it isn't a "mental health diagnosis." When I and those I know use it, the term describes those who demonstrate no substantive moral and ethical compunctions restricting their self-interested words and actions, even when those words and actions are criminal and/or cause severe harm to others. As a random hypothetical, if a politician advocated the abrogation of the constitutional rights of 330-million people in a quest for power, made a career of financial fraud and fraudulent inducement, lied compulsively, bragged about committing multiple sexual assaults, repeatedly advocated violence in furtherance of his agenda, appointed public officials with the intention of corrupting governmental institutions, and routinely apologized for racists and anti-semites, the term sociopath would be apt and accurate.
On another note, your hectoring refrain of keep fighting, no negotiations isn't aging well, since Putin has demanded that the territories illegally annexed by Russia be recognized as a condition for negotiations.
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 04, 2022, 05:38:39 AMYour objection is frivolous and uninformed. The term sociopath describes no condition in the DSM-5 and thus its use is not in the purview, exclusive or otherwise, of mental health professionals. In standard usage it isn't a "mental health diagnosis." When I and those I know use it, the term describes those who demonstrate no substantive moral and ethical compunctions restricting their self-interested words and actions, even when those words and actions are criminal and/or cause severe harm to others. As a random hypothetical, if a politician advocated the abrogation of the constitutional rights of 330-million people in a quest for power, made a career of financial fraud and fraudulent inducement, lied compulsively, bragged about committing multiple sexual assaults, repeatedly advocated violence in furtherance of his agenda, appointed public officials with the intention of corrupting governmental institutions, and routinely apologized for racists and anti-semites, the term sociopath would be apt and accurate.
All mentions of mental health are gossip only.
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 04, 2022, 05:38:39 AMOn another note, your hectoring refrain of keep fighting, no negotiations isn't aging well, since Putin has demanded that the territories illegally annexed by Russia be recognized as a condition for negotiations.
Incorrect. The US chooses to pursue war, not negotiations.
Quote from: Todd on December 04, 2022, 05:45:32 AMYou are not a mental health professional. You gossip.
Which, as I demonstrated, is irrelevant.
Of course, your thoughtless repetition of refuted statements is just the least embarrassing way you've found of rolling over. Good doggie.
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 04, 2022, 06:03:29 AMWhich, as I demonstrated, is irrelevant.
All mentions of mental health are gossip only.
Todd of course has absolutely no qualifications for all of the things that he says on this thread.
FYI, I removed Todd's reply to BV's post on the grounds that it was absolutely non-responsive and nothing more than a tedious repetition of previous taunts. The fact that it was Todd's post shouldn't be taken to mean he is the only one who gets out of bounds, since those who lack the maturity to disengage from such a fruitless situation often post things that make it worse rather than better. Disagreement over the topic is what we are here to work out. "Owning the libs" or conversely, trying to enforce political correctness on people who don't agree with you, may have their place in the larger political discourse in the world, but it's not what is going to happen here. Frankly I'm tired of the bullshit, and I highly doubt I am alone. Consider before pressing the 'post' button..
GB
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 04, 2022, 06:18:17 AMFYI, I removed Todd's reply to BV's post on the grounds that it was absolutely non-responsive and nothing more than a tedious repetition of previous taunts.
A serious question: do you think that any posters on GMG are able to make accurate psychological diagnoses of anyone based on press reports?
Back to the Russo-Ukrainian War specifically:
BBC: Ukraine war: Fighting set to slow for winter months, says US intelligence (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63849268)
Graun: Vladimir Putin better informed now about Ukraine war, says US (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/04/vladimir-putin-better-informed-now-about-ukraine-war-says-us)
Hopefully, US intelligence is correct, is being accurately reported, the Ukraine suffers fewer civilian casualties over the winter as a result, and negotiations ensue shortly now that Putin is better informed.
Quote from: Todd on December 04, 2022, 06:20:19 AMA serious question: do you think that any posters on GMG are able to make accurate psychological diagnoses of anyone based on press reports?
Nobody was making any diagnosis. Don't you know anything at all about context? In the context of a casual discussion about someone's abnormal behavior, for any civilized person to say to other civilized people that the person in question acts in the manner of a person who has a particular disease or defect is NOT a diagnosis. And if such a statement has to be qualified any time it is made would be ludicrous. The alternative would be to forego any attempt at qualifying terms and simply resort to saying "he just a nutcase" whenever his actions are discussed.
In any case, in the extremely unlikely case that you are correct, this is not the time or place to correct people's perceptions of mental illness, especially when your motives are suspect.
GB
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 04, 2022, 06:18:17 AMThe fact that it was Todd's post shouldn't be taken to mean he is the only one who gets out of bounds, since those who lack the maturity to disengage from such a fruitless situation often post things that make it worse rather than better.
It's just that the other posters react to Todd's trolling because he aims to present his views in the most provocative way (which is the very definition of trolling). The best thing would of course be if posters could refrain from responding, but that probably requires them to refrain from reading his post or put him on their ignore list.
Quote from: premont on December 04, 2022, 06:35:39 AMIt's just that the other posters react to Todd's trolling because he aims to present his views in the most provocative way (which is the very definition of trolling). The best thing would of course be if posters could refrain from responding, but that probably requires them to refrain from reading his post or put him on their ignore list.
Which I said already many times, but to no avail.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 04, 2022, 06:34:31 AMNobody was making any diagnosis. Don't you know anything at all about context?
I am keenly aware of context. I am also keenly aware that people inaccurately using scientific or at least scientific appearing terms to attack someone politically is standard partisan and/or ideological behavior all around the world. There are many examples historically and online today. It is marginally more pervasive now than in the past. Saying "(s)he just a nutcase" is a much more appropriate way to go precisely because it drops pretensions to some type of superior knowledge.
I would not refuse to take a relative to a shrink on the grounds that he hadn't been diagnosed, or that his bizarre behavior was gossip.
Trump behaves like a sociopath regardless of whether he would submit to a diagnosis.
I don't think Putin is insane. That is not because I'm gossipy about his mental state. He doesn't exhibit the traits of a mental disease that would require that he seek a diagnosis.
Oh, yes, it's the appearance of symptoms first, then a diagnosis may follow. It's not a diagnosis first and then the sickness.
Quote from: premont on December 04, 2022, 06:35:39 AMIt's just that the other posters react to Todd's trolling because he aims to present his views in the most provocative way (which is the very definition of trolling). The best thing would of course be if posters could refrain from responding, but that probably requires them to refrain from reading his post or put him on their ignore list.
As they say:
Don't Feed the Troll.
Quote from: drogulus on December 04, 2022, 07:16:24 AMI would not refuse to take a relative to a shrink on the grounds that he hadn't been diagnosed, or that his bizarre behavior was gossip.
Trump behaves like a sociopath regardless of whether he would submit to a diagnosis.
I don't think Putin is insane. That is not because I'm gossipy about his mental state. He doesn't exhibit the traits of a mental disease that would require that he seek a diagnosis.
Oh, yes, it's the appearance of symptoms first, then a diagnosis may follow. It's not a diagnosis first and then the sickness.
Indeed, he has character defects which cannot be mitigated by putative insanity.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 09:14:55 AMHe is, though, of course missing the elephant in the room: Putin is a war criminal, by any definition.
Demonstrably incorrect. I have posted in this thread that Putin is a war criminal. I have also posted that the probability that he is held accountable is essentially zero. Leaders of great powers are not held accountable in the current so-called rules-based order. Only leaders of small, weak countries are held accountable, and to date most have been African.
I have also pointed out that the US is directly responsible for establishing the conditions that led to Russia's military actions in Ukraine that began in 2014 (the actions of this February have been mislabeled an invasion), that NATO is the primary non-financial tool the US uses to exercise hegemony over European vassal states, and that the US itself is the most destructive country in the world not only this century, but in the entire post-war era. People take exception with these assertions, despite the existence of incontrovertible evidence for some of the claims (eg, the civilian body count from US led wars).
Quote from: premont on December 04, 2022, 06:35:39 AMIt's just that the other posters react to Todd's trolling because he aims to present his views in the most provocative way (which is the very definition of trolling). The best thing would of course be if posters could refrain from responding, but that probably requires them to refrain from reading his post or put him on their ignore list.
Very true. Nevertheless, I owe Todd an apology for a very uncivil post of mine (which I just removed), so here it is:
@Todd , I am sorry for my rudeness.
Macron says negotiations should include a guarantee of Russian security. That would be making explicit what is a fact. The US won't countenance an invasion by Finland or Ukraine. China, though is a bridge too far. Russia is on its own.
The US wants Russia to survive losing the war. The world might not be as lucky this time as it was when the Soviet Union broke up. There needs to be a central authority that controls the nukes.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 09:55:51 AMSo when you say 'demonstrably incorrect', what you mean 'he is a war criminal and I've been calling him that for ages, and so saying I've missed that 'elephant in the room' is incorrect'?
Putin is a war criminal. I have posted about it before in this thread. I also posted about his dictatorial tendencies in 2014 and 2008. I am under no illusions about Putin.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 09:55:51 AMThat the rules of International Law were pretty much invented and used against Germany in 1945/6 says, to my satisfaction: "Don't get comfortable, Russia or USA. They can be used against you too, eventually". That's all the assurance about International Law I need.
This is pre-Trinity and pre-Joe 1 thinking and therefore incorrect.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 09:55:51 AMAnd your second paragraph is just nonsense
Incorrect.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 10:24:51 AMFor the rest of your nonsense: buffoonery.
Incorrect. For instance, how would external powers be able to hold Russian senior leaders or American senior leaders accountable in a manner similar to the Nuremberg trials, or even using existing international courts? Trials in abstentia don't cut it at that level.
It is quite common for Europeans or transplants to Europe, in particular, to bristle at their countries' subservience to the US. That is understandable. But the fact is that European security is dependent on the US - something UK leaders remain keen to keep in place, and something the Finnish PM just stated publicly - and that Europeans cannot effectively engage in economic war without direct support of the US. Most of the time Europeans require US guidance in this arena. Indeed, European governments are the only governments to slavishly follow US economic policies in this war, even when it does not necessarily serve their national interests. Germany is probably the best example of that. I suppose one could try to characterize that as putting up a united front, but it isn't really working.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 10:48:07 AMBuffoonery.
That's certainly one response, but perhaps you could take a stab at answering my question.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 11:07:03 AMNah. What you type is buffonery. No response required.
Very good. I hasten to add that I look forward to more false analogies in the days/weeks/months/years to come.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 11:09:08 AMBuffoon.
The impressive swiftness of your reply amplifies its effectiveness.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 11:16:07 AMNah: for you, I don't really need them.
https://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock-photo-smiley-ball-image11728565
Maybe next time.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 11:18:09 AMNah. Buffoonery needs no further response.
https://www.dreamstime.com/stock-photography-funny-circus-clown-lot-emotions-image11381052
So will you respond to this post?
I'm wondering at what point Todd will grasp that he is being given a taste of his own tactics.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 04, 2022, 11:23:53 AMTo point out buffoonery when it stands there in full clown-face?
Sure.
But you are on my ignore list, and I have to click the damn link to see any of your pantaloonish posts. Which is effort, and I don't claim I can maintain the effort, despite your obvious keenness for me to do so.
This is the most entertaining post I have read in quite a while. More, please.
Let's give it a rest. Maybe we will come to our senses soon and approach the topic like the mature adults I'm sure we all are.
🤠
Quote from: Todd on December 03, 2022, 12:40:55 PMUnqualified non-professionals like you, BasilValentine, and everyone else on this forum who has so far offered any type of a mental health diagnosis of Putin or anyone else are merely gossiping. Only clinical psychologists and psychiatrists can offer actual mental health diagnoses.
In future I'd like you to not offer gossipy speculation on the "sleepiness" of politicians, you yourself not being a a professional doctor of sleep disorders, nor having medical testimony on the tiredness or sleep deprivation issues of said politicians.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 04, 2022, 11:40:10 AMLet's give it a rest. Maybe we will come to our senses soon and approach the topic like the mature adults I'm sure we all are.
🤠
It's just incredible how much time some people will sacrifice to vapid one-upmanship.
Don't feed the troll.
Explosions rock two Russian airbases far from Ukraine frontline (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/05/explosions-russia-airbases-far-from-ukraine-frontline-bombers)
Looks like the Ukrainians took the words of Edgar Rinkevics to heart. The war should be over shortly. Then Putin will be able to tried like in the aftermath of WWII. Definitely no need to negotiate now.
Quote from: Todd on December 04, 2022, 09:26:40 AMI have also pointed out that the US is directly responsible for establishing the conditions that led to Russia's military actions in Ukraine that began in 2014 (the actions of this February have been mislabeled an invasion), that NATO is the primary non-financial tool the US uses to exercise hegemony over European vassal states ...
This is specious nonsense.
Your statement merely illustrates the you and Putin have unwarranted resentment of the USA's well-earned financial and military power from which Europe has been probably the greatest beneficiary.
Neither the USA nor NATO are in any way provocateurs of Russia's seizure of Ukraine territory in 2014 or invasion in February. Neither has ever been a direct threat to the Soviet Union nor the Russian Federation. Nations in eastern Europe and now Finland and Sweden have been admitted to NATO on their own requests as result of their legitimate fear of the imperialist expansionism of Tsarist Russia, the USSR, and now Russia under Putin. Russia's activities in 2014 and since are entirely due to Putin's romantic vision of a renewal of these historic tendencies.
An uh oh thing is happening. The US imposed Russia protection racket is being undermined by Ukraine, which is using its own long range drones to strike targets deep inside Russia. How dare they? Don't they know what being an instrument of US policy means? Bad Ukes!!
Quote from: Fëanor on December 05, 2022, 10:13:15 AMYour statement merely illustrates the you and Putin have unwarranted resentment of the USA's well-earned financial and military power
Putin may resent US power. I do not resent US power, not at all. I relish it. It's fantastic. It ensures that even when people are slaughtered by the millions overseas, I am nice and safe, and as long as the US dollar retains reserve currency status, the US federal government enjoys policy options no other country enjoys, including running foolishly large twin deficits for decades on end. I recognize also that what you describe as "well-earned" means built on genocide, slavery, expansionary warfare, relentless exploitative capitalism in the wake of the Civil War right up through the Gilded Age, and then in the post-war era, on a militarized economy that even a five-star general publicly warned against.
What I seek is to decrease the militarization of the US economy, US foreign policy, and to substantially rollback US military intervention in the world, and US military commitments. I know that the US will not enjoy its current advantages forever. Indeed, relative US power has been declining for decades, and in the wake of the failed unipolar policies of the Bush Administration, the decline has accelerated, and international institutions that constitute the so-called rules-based system have weakened, which is one of the reasons why the US, and by extension its allies, are ever more reliant on military power through military alliances.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 05, 2022, 10:13:15 AMNeither the USA nor NATO are in any way provocateurs of Russia's seizure of Ukraine territory in 2014 or invasion in February. Neither has ever been a direct threat to the Soviet Union nor the Russian Federation.
The US and NATO most certainly provoked Russia. George W Bush publicly suggested that both Georgia and Ukraine join NATO, something even Robert Gates said was going too far. Obama saw the dangers in Bush's policies and slow-walked various advocated policies, including arming Ukraine, a direct provocation. Trump and now Biden have both flooded Ukraine with weapons. One of the more ironic twists of geopolitics in the last decade is how fully Bush policies have been embraced by all manner of people who otherwise claim to despise Bush.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 05, 2022, 10:13:15 AMNations in eastern Europe and now Finland and Sweden have been admitted to NATO on their own requests as result of their legitimate fear of the imperialist expansionism of Tsarist Russia, the USSR, and now Russia under Putin.
First, neither Sweden nor Finland are officially members of NATO yet, though they will be. (I would be very happy if Turkey blocks them from joining; there's a fresh story from Reuters today on this topic.) Second, NATO is controlled by the US, and the expansion of NATO (NATO terms it "enlargement") relies on requests from small, weak powers to join, but NATO is not a democratic institution. The process is good PR for public consumption. NATO was explicitly established as a defense against/threat to (they are the same thing) the USSR; it was an alliance against the USSR. From NATO: "Its purpose was to secure peace in Europe, to promote cooperation among its members and to guard their freedom – all of this in the context of countering the threat posed at the time by the Soviet Union."
Quote from: Fëanor on December 05, 2022, 10:13:15 AMRussia's activities in 2014 and since are entirely due to Putin's romantic vision of a renewal of these historic tendencies.
This explicitly requires adherence to the great man theory of history and grossly oversimplifies Russian power structures. Putin is very powerful, but he does not have the degree of control often misrepresented in the western corporate press, and he does not make decisions independent of actions in the world.
Quote from: drogulus on December 05, 2022, 11:02:48 AMAn uh oh thing is happening. The US imposed Russia protection racket is being undermined by Ukraine, which is using its own long range drones to strike targets deep inside Russia. How dare they? Don't they know what being an instrument of US policy means? Bad Ukes!!
Moscow says three killed in Ukrainian drone attacks on air bases deep inside Russia (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-killed-fuel-tanker-explosion-russian-airfield-2022-12-05/)
A proportionate response.
Quote from: Madiel on December 05, 2022, 02:31:49 PMA proportionate response.
that's obviously going to elicit another destructive response.
remembet the bridge?
too much of this war is about cool new gadgets.
Quote from: Herman on December 05, 2022, 06:41:43 PMthat's obviously going to elicit another destructive response.
remembet the bridge?
too much of this war is about cool new gadgets.
I think it's pretty clear that the Russians feel fine about destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with drones and killing Ukrainian civilians with drones WITHOUT any attacks on Russian military bases.
If the Russians don't wish to be subjected to drone attacks, there's an extremely obvious solution. Send all the Russian troops back to the Russian military bases, and I'm pretty confident the Ukrainians won't attack them.
Otherwise, you're sounding uncomfortably close to Todd, telling the Ukrainians to stop resisting.
It's an appropriate response because it's a military target. So long as there's a war going on, that's fine by me, and as far as I'm concerned it's up to the Russians to stop the war. Although first there's that whole nonsense about denying it's even a war.
Quote from: Madiel on December 05, 2022, 07:54:16 PMOtherwise, you're sounding uncomfortably close to Todd, telling the Ukrainians to stop resisting.
I'm not telling anyone to do or not do anything. I posted something on a music group, I doubt Zelensky has the time to read this. It's not like we on GMG are obliged to say only the right, supportive things, otherwise Ukraine will lose the war.
What I in essence said is that I feel uncomfortable that war media coverage since Desert Storm in 1990 is predominantly about cool gadgets outsmarting the enemy.
Seriously, you're going to pick on the phrasing? Fine, you're not telling Ukrainians anything. ??? Thank you for specifically highlighting the irrelevancy of your opinion.
Quote from: Madiel on December 05, 2022, 10:58:44 PMThank you for specifically highlighting the irrelevancy of your opinion.
Now, who's sounding uncomfortably close to Todd here?
Quote from: Herman on December 05, 2022, 11:29:17 PMNow, who's sounding uncomfortably close to Todd here?
Oh, I agree that on one level none of what we say here matters. But you took the unusual step of specifically saying yourself that you're just posting on a music forum. What Todd does is tell EVERYONE ELSE that they're just posting on a music forum.
Whereas I had suggested your opinion was important. And you corrected me.
Quote from: Madiel on December 05, 2022, 11:34:56 PMOh, I agree that on one level none of what we say here matters. But you took the unusual step of specifically saying yourself that you're just posting on a music forum. What Todd does is tell EVERYONE ELSE that they're just posting on a music forum.
Well, I did not know that. I generally don't read his posts.
Quote from: Herman on December 06, 2022, 01:43:58 AMWell, I did not know that. I generally don't read his posts.
...you told me I sounded like Todd, but you didn't know that Todd said things like that because you generally don't read his posts...
Oooooookaaaayyyyy. I think we should wrap it up there.
Quote from: Todd on December 05, 2022, 11:30:44 AMQuote from: Fëanor on December 05, 2022, 10:13:15 AMYour statement merely illustrates the you and Putin have unwarranted resentment of the USA's well-earned financial and military power from which Europe has been probably the greatest beneficiary.
... I recognize also that what you describe as "well-earned" means built on genocide, slavery, expansionary warfare, relentless exploitative capitalism in the wake of the Civil War right up through the Gilded Age, and then in the post-war era, on a militarized economy that even a five-star general publicly warned against.
Yes, I'm going to double-down on saying the US financial & military power are well-deserved. No country has an unblemished record and that's true of the USA, on the other hand the USA would have the position it has without inventing and sustaining its essential democracy and open, entrepreneurial economic system ... and let's face it, it has a large geographic territory, internal resources, and population.
Quote from: Todd on December 05, 2022, 11:30:44 AMQuote from: Fëanor on December 05, 2022, 10:13:15 AMNations in eastern Europe and now Finland and Sweden have been admitted to NATO on their own requests as result of their legitimate fear of the imperialist expansionism of Tsarist Russia, the USSR, and now Russia under Putin. ...
...
The US and NATO most certainly provoked Russia. George W Bush publicly suggested that both Georgia and Ukraine join NATO, something even Robert Gates said was going too far. Obama saw the dangers in Bush's policies and slow-walked various advocated policies, including arming Ukraine, a direct provocation. Trump and now Biden have both flooded Ukraine with weapons. One of the more ironic twists of geopolitics in the last decade is how fully Bush policies have been embraced by all manner of people who otherwise claim to despise Bush.
If Georgia and Ukraine had joined NATO they wouldn't have the problems they have today. If the impression ensued that the USA/NATO "provoked" Russian that would have been in Putin's head: too effing bad. The real fact is the Obama meant to cut Putin and Russia a break which, in retrospect at least, it they didn't deserve.
Quote from: Todd on December 05, 2022, 11:30:44 AMQuote from: Fëanor on December 05, 2022, 10:13:15 AMRussia's activities in 2014 and since are entirely due to Putin's romantic vision of a renewal of these historic tendencies.
This explicitly requires adherence to the great man theory of history and grossly oversimplifies Russian power structures. Putin is very powerful, but he does not have the degree of control often misrepresented in the western corporate press, and he does not make decisions independent of actions in the world.
Well in fact that's the point: in Putin's mind he is a "great man". I don't believe it's just a fabrication of the "western corporate press" that Putin pulls all the strings in Russia. (Don't forget he's a guy who has his enemies murdered.)
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 03:18:47 AMYes, I'm going to double-down on saying the US financial & military power are well-deserved.
Well-earned or well-deserved? They mean different things.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 03:18:47 AMNo country has an unblemished record and that's true of the USA, on the other hand the USA would have the position it has without inventing and sustaining its essential democracy and open, entrepreneurial economic system ...
This is a romanticized, whitewashed version of US history and also mischaracterizes the current US economy.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 03:18:47 AMIf Georgia and Ukraine had joined NATO they wouldn't have the problems they have today.
Again, the idea that George W Bush policies are now embraced is peculiar. At least you openly embrace neocon policies, so I know you are a neocon.
Your assertion entirely misses a larger and much more important point: US foreign policy is about US security and US interests. Neither are served by expansion of NATO to include non-Atlantic countries, and most certainly not Georgia and Ukraine. The Russo-Ukrainian War demonstrates a fundamental policy failure. It has heightened risks to US security. And the US does not have to be involved at all. All US engagement is by choice, not necessity, with only two exceptions since 1865.
No one on this forum has been able to define US interests in Ukraine. Can you define those interests?
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 03:18:47 AMWell in fact that's the point: in Putin's mind he is a "great man".
You do not and cannot know what's in Putin's mind. You are repeating pro-war propaganda. And you clearly believe in the great man theory of history. That is as useful as knowing you are a neocon.
(https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/LWGuJgZ6X19racXGq-3nGotW2ok=/1024x0/filters:format(jpg):quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/44HFNSXDRFHKPJVUZCXA43L6UY.jpg)
Air Force unveils B-21 Raider, America's newest nuclear stealth bomber, after years of secrecy (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/12/03/pentagons-air-force-b-21-raider-bomber-unveiled/10827250002/)
On a broadly related topic, Northrup Grumman, in partnership with the USAF, had a press day to officially reveal the B-21. The story has been covered in all major global news outlets. Viewers of US television news were treated to standard, laudatory short-form stories touting the capabilities of the aircraft, the strength it provides the US, and most important of all, the lead it maintains over China and Russia. It all has a Deal of the Century vibe about it. Too bad it can't be used in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, amiright?
So... the US has no interests in Ukraine, AND a conflict in Ukraine is a risk to US security.
Goddamn that's a good trick
@Todd.
PS I told you about US interests in Ukraine at least 6 months ago. You just didn't like the answer. When you claim no-one has defined the interests, what you really mean is that no-one has defined them to your satisfaction. But you are so, so rarely satisfied about anything.
Folks, my apology for feeding the troll. That Todd is a troll is the most likely reason for his comments since it's harm to believe he is sincere.
Quote from: Todd on December 06, 2022, 05:14:10 AMQuote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 03:18:47 AMIf Georgia and Ukraine had joined NATO they wouldn't have the problems they have today.
Again, the idea that George W Bush policies are now embraced is peculiar. At least you openly embrace neocon policies, so I know you are a neocon.
I'm not saying that backing off NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine was a mistake
at the time. But is was as much friendly, conciliatory gesture as it was prudence.
Quote from: Todd on December 06, 2022, 05:14:10 AMYour assertion entirely misses a larger and much more important point: US foreign policy is about US security and US interests. Neither are served by expansion of NATO to include non-Atlantic countries, and most certainly not Georgia and Ukraine. The Russo-Ukrainian War demonstrates a fundamental policy failure. It has heightened risks to US security. And the US does not have to be involved at all. All US engagement is by choice, not necessity, with only two exceptions since 1865.
No one on this forum has been able to define US interests in Ukraine. Can you define those interests?
Are you confused? You say the USA acts in its own security & interest, (most countries do). If the USA has no security interest in Ukraine, what is it doing there now?
Don't be confused by the "Atlantic" in NATO's name: it only pertains to the founding treaty's name, not its purpose which was the mutual defense of all participating countries against external threats, principally the Soviet Union.
What we are seeing today is
déjà vu all over again: an attempted replay under Putin of Soviet hegemonism. The security concerns of the USA, the largest and wealthiest NATO member, are no different today than they were in 1949.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 06:49:41 AMBut is was as much friendly, conciliatory gesture as it was prudence.
There was nothing prudent about it.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 06:49:41 AMAre you confused? You say the USA acts in its own security & interest, (most countries do). If the USA has no security interest in Ukraine, what is it doing there now?
I am not confused. First, I asked if you could define US interests in Ukraine. No one on this forum has been able to do so. Amorphous claims about generalized conceptions of security do not suffice. Second, the US is not there; the US is providing financial and military aid. That is, the US in engaged in a proxy war. People blanched at that notion months ago, and some might still. You at least acknowledge that the US is engaged in the war. Third, the US is engaged in a dangerous policy whereby it seeks to expand its global hegemony to Ukraine, and it is following a policy to explicitly weaken Russia. That is, the US seeks to expand its empire. (People will of course deny the US is an empire, some will confuse colonialism and imperialism, and so forth, but at the very least the explicit goal is to expand the reach and scope of American hard power.) There may be short- and medium-term benefits for certain US economic interests (eg, defense contractors) and institutional interests (eg, the DOD), but that is not necessarily the same as the national interest. The US is overextending itself strategically and increasing risks of becoming embroiled in war that does not impact material US economic interests, US territorial integrity, the territorial integrity of allies, or US liberty.
Again, I ask you what American interests are at stake. If you choose to not answer, that's fine.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 06:49:41 AMDon't be confused by the "Atlantic" in NATO's name: it only pertains to the founding treaty's name, not its purpose which was the mutual defense of all participating countries against external threats, principally the Soviet Union.
I am not confused about NATO at all. I have pointed out before, and will point out again now, that NATO is a vehicle for expanding US hard power around the world. NATO states openly and publicly on its website that its missions are global in nature, and it has formed "partnerships" with countries including Columbia and Mongolia.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 06:49:41 AMWhat we are seeing today is déjà vu all over again: an attempted replay under Putin of Soviet hegemonism. The security concerns of the USA, the largest and wealthiest NATO member, are no different today than they were in 1949.
Assertions that Putin is attempting to reconstitute a Tsarist or Soviet empire are pro-war propaganda talking points. Russia lacks the power to do so, even absent US military deployments in Europe.
Assertions that US interests are no different than they were in 1949 assumes that the expansion of the military-industrial complex in the wake of the 1947 National Security Act actually reflected US interests at the time. Critics at the time understood that was not the case. It is not the case now, either. It is worth reposting a quote from Robert Taft from 1949 regarding NATO:
Quote from: Senator Robert TaftBut today we have quietly adopted a tendency to interfere in the affairs of other nations, to assume that we are a kind of demigod or Santa Claus to solve the problems of the world, and that attitude is more and more likely to involve us in disputes where our liberty is not in fact concerned. It is easy to slip into an attitude of imperialism where war becomes an instrument of public policy rather than its last resort.
Quote from: Todd on December 06, 2022, 07:12:43 AMI am not confused. First, I asked if you could define US interests in Ukraine. No one on this forum has been able to do so. Amorphous claims about generalized conceptions of security do not suffice. Second, the US is not there; the US is providing financial and military aid. That is, the US in engaged in a proxy war. People blanched at that notion months ago, and some might still. You at least acknowledge that the US is engaged in the war. Third, the US is engaged in a dangerous policy whereby it seeks to expand its global hegemony to Ukraine, and it is following a policy to explicitly weaken Russia. ...
Again, I ask you what American interests are at stake. If you choose to not answer, that's fine.
Well, I suggest you are confused as the politer alternative to suggesting you are cynical and disingenuous Russophile.
I am asserting that the USA's interest -- and NATO's interest -- is collective security as it was in 1949. You are rejecting this out-of-hand, so we must disagree. By the same token, you say the Ukraine is a USA-Russia proxy war. That implies that the USA alone is the prime mover in the conflict and dismisses the fact that all of NATO, (at least), is acting for collective security.
Quote from: Todd on December 06, 2022, 07:12:43 AMAssertions that Putin is attempting to reconstitute a Tsarist or Soviet empire are pro-war propaganda talking points. Russia lacks the power to do so, even absent US military deployments in Europe.
Yes, that's what makes Putin a delusional romanticist. Were it not for it's nukes Russia would be only a 2nd rank energy provider.
Wow, my head is spinning. :o So I'm to believe that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, destruction of its infrastructure, war crimes against its civilians is solely the protect it from US hegemonist ambitions. Give me an effing break. ::)
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 08:50:08 AMmy head is spinning.
Which is entirely your choice. You could, and would better, stop right here, right now. ;)
For a more nuanced view of the Russia-NATO thingy, this:
Russia is picking a fight over NATO because it looks better than the real issue, which is former Soviet states joining Europe economically, culturally and politically. By the time a country gets to the point of considering NATO membership it has already left the Russian orbit.
Quote from: drogulus on December 06, 2022, 09:11:47 AMFor a more nuanced view of the Russia-NATO thingy, this:
Russia is picking a fight over NATO because it looks better than the real issue, which is former Soviet states joining Europe economically, culturally and politically. By the time a country gets to the point of considering NATO membership it has already left the Russian orbit.
What is pathetic is that if Putin had played his cards right Russia could likely have been an EU member today -- maybe even a NATO member.
But in his resentment of the collapse of the Soviet Union's empire, (no one's fault but its own), and delusional ambition to reconstitute it, he choose a different path. Russia citizens, not to mention Ukrainians, are much the worse off for it.
Quote from: Florestan on December 06, 2022, 08:53:16 AMWhich is entirely your choice. You could, and would better, stop right here, right now. ;)
Thank you, Florestan: a wise suggestion.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 08:50:08 AMWell, I suggest you are confused as the politer alternative to suggesting you are cynical and disingenuous Russophile.
Cynical, yes; Russophile, no.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 08:50:08 AMI am asserting that the USA's interest -- and NATO's interest -- is collective security as it was in 1949. You are rejecting this out-of-hand, so we must disagree.
Yes, we disagree.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 08:50:08 AMBy the same token, you say the Ukraine is a USA-Russia proxy war. That implies that the USA alone is the prime mover in the conflict and dismisses the fact that all of NATO, (at least), is acting for collective security.
It is a proxy war between the US and Russia. NATO means nothing without US power. Nothing. In addition, the US has provided far more financial, military, and intelligence support to Ukraine than any other country. You can look up data at the Kiel Institute, which serves as the basis for Wikipedia's article. You can even download the Kiel Institute's Excel datasets.
In terms of so-called collective security, one can see how hollow that assertion is on its face. Germany's bold promises to significantly boost defense spending right away have given way to statements that it will not hit the 2% of GDP military expenditure target until 2025. I predict it will take longer - if it ever actually meets the agreed upon target.
European security depends on US power by design.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 08:50:08 AMYes, that's what makes Putin a delusional romanticist. Were it not for it's nukes Russia would be only a 2nd rank energy provider.
Putin is a rational actor, not a romanticist.
Russia is a first rank energy producer. That is a verifiable fact based on production levels. Disliking Russia is one thing, but ignoring facts quite another.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 08:50:08 AMWow, my head is spinning. :o So I'm to believe that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, destruction of its infrastructure, war crimes against its civilians is solely the protect it from US hegemonist ambitions. Give me an effing break. ::)
You can believe whatever you wish. A lot of people prefer a simplistic good guy/bad guy story and so opt to believe that.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 09:31:07 AMWhat is pathetic is that if Putin had played his cards right Russia could likely have been an EU member today -- maybe even a NATO member.
This is romanticism of a particularly dangerous and myopic sort.
Huh. Apparently, trolling is considered a US security issue. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/pro-putin-trolls-supporting-the-ukraine-invasion-cant-stop-screwing-up-1392075/amp/
Quote from: drogulus on December 06, 2022, 09:11:47 AMRussia is picking a fight over NATO because it looks better than the real issue, which is former Soviet states joining Europe economically, culturally and politically.
And Huggy Bear swallowed it.
Quote from: Todd on December 06, 2022, 09:37:09 AMRussia is a first rank energy producer. That is a verifiable fact based on production levels. Disliking Russia is one thing, but ignoring facts quite another.
I'll concede that point. Russia is the no.3 producer behind No.2 Saudi Arabia and well behind No.1 USA. (Canada is No.4.)
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/oil-and-gas-investing/top-oil-producing-countries/
Quote from: Fëanor on December 06, 2022, 11:45:47 AMI'll concede that point. Russia is the no.3 producer behind Saudi Arabia and well behind the USA. (Canada is no. 4)
Your source is too narrowly focused. The US Energy Information Administration provides different figures and is more expansive. In quadrillion BTUs, the top five energy producers are listed below. Energy is more than oil.
China - 123.8
US - 101.4
Russia - 64.3
Saudi Arabia - 27.9
Canada - 23.5
Oh dear God. Even when someone concedes a point, he has to disagree.
Don't bother,
@Fëanor.
Quote from: Madiel on December 06, 2022, 12:01:06 PMOh dear God. Even when someone concedes a point, he has to disagree.
Boggles the mind, all the more since his source places Russia in exactly the selfsame position as Feanor's.
Quote from: Todd on December 06, 2022, 11:51:55 AMYour source is too narrowly focused. The US Energy Information Administration provides different figures and is more expansive. In quadrillion BTUs, the top five energy producers are listed below. Energy is more than oil.
China - 123.8
US - 101.4
Russia - 64.3
Saudi Arabia - 27.9
Canada - 23.5
The above is energy produced which is not necessarily exported, but I triply concede in terms of exports:
If we're talking only oil exports, Russia is actually no. 2 ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports
If we're talking natural gas exports, Russia is No. 1 ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_exports
In terms of coal exports, Russia is no. 3 ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#Major_exporters
Quote from: Fëanor on December 07, 2022, 03:42:17 AMThe above is energy produced which is not necessarily exported, but I triply concede in terms of exports:
Yes, I am rather aware of that fact.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 07, 2022, 03:42:17 AMIf we're talking natural gas exports, Russia is No. 1 ...
Which seems to perfectly align with some of the most significant events in the Russo-Ukrainian War, don't you think?
Quote from: Todd on December 07, 2022, 04:18:03 AMWhich {that Russia is no.1 gas exporter} seems to perfectly align with some of the most significant events in the Russo-Ukrainian War, don't you think?
It is reasonable speculation the Putin calculated that Europe's dependency on Russia's natural gas would weaken their response to his invasion and possibly fracture NATO's unity. So far this hasn't been the case.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 07, 2022, 05:13:53 AMIt is reasonable speculation the Putin calculated that Europe's dependency on Russia's natural gas would weaken their response to his invasion and possibly fracture NATO's unity. So far this hasn't been the case.
So far, but cracks are appearing. Based on press reports, discontent with the war is growing in multiple European countries. And there's some discontent with the US: Europe accuses US of profiting from war (https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-europe-ukraine-gas-inflation-reduction-act-ira-joe-biden-rift-west-eu-accuses-us-of-profiting-from-war/). As I posted previously, the US jumped from the third largest exporter of LNG to largest exporter of LNG this year. US leaders have for years stated the Europe should rely on the US for a greater proportion of imported energy.
Just as Putin's possible hopes regarding the effectiveness of using energy as a weapon may have been too hopeful, sanctions against Russia have not been as effective as expected, despite the triumphalist pro-war propaganda that the measures would cripple Russia's economy. This is the bigger story regarding economic warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian War since the second and fifth largest economies did not sign on to sanctions, and since both those countries, and especially India, are accelerating efforts to find alternatives to dollar denominated trade.
All the while, Ukrainian civilians keep dying and people thousands of miles away encourage war from behind their computer monitors. A negotiated settlement is a far preferable solution, both in the near term and long term.
Time designates Zelenskyy and the Spirit of Ukraine as Person of the Year.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on December 07, 2022, 06:06:35 AMTime designates Zelenskyy and the Spirit of Ukraine as Person of the Year.
Time might have meant Persons of the Year. ;D
(Sorry, couldn't resist.)
Quote from: Florestan on December 07, 2022, 06:20:13 AMTime might have meant Persons of the Year. ;D
(Sorry, couldn't resist.)
Might be my typo, too.
Time gave the title to The Endangered Earth in 1988.
The title is a notch below People's Sexiest Man Alive in terms of prestige. This year that honor went to Chris Evans.
STOP FEEDING THE TROLL, HIS EGO GETS BIGGER AND BIGGER, AND WE ARE THE FOOLS FABRICATING IT.
All-caps is VERY effective.
Read earlier today about large numbers of police and military arresting a bunch of people in Germany and elsewhere who were plotting to overthrow the government. I don't think that they would have gotten very far, but that still made me shudder. Apparently a bunch of right-wingers. :( >:(
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63885028
PD
Quote from: Florestan on December 07, 2022, 06:20:13 AMTime might have meant Persons of the Year. ;D
(Sorry, couldn't resist.)
Well, it wasn't my typo.
According to Russian rumor mongers Putin is buying property in Venezuela. The lesser creepozoids from Russia are said to favor other S. American countries. Among these are Paraguay and Argentina.
I hope so hard this is true that I fear it's not. I mean Argentina and Paraguay! I doesn't get better than that!
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on December 07, 2022, 08:37:45 AMRead earlier today about large numbers of police and military arresting a bunch of people in Germany and elsewhere who were plotting to overthrow the government. I don't think that they would have gotten very far, but that still made me shudder. Apparently a bunch of right-wingers. :( >:(
Indeed, "a bunch" makes them sound less organized than they actually were. These same "Reichsburger" or Sovereign citizens have been doing antigovt stuff for a couple of years. However, inspired by the Jan 6 2021 of the USA Capitol, they were planning to strom the Reichstag soon and perhaps kill "a bunch" of bigwigs and take over.
The age of the leaders of this planned coup is interesting. The leader is age 71 and nr 2 was 69... Not really fighting age, I'd say.
But I don't want to ridicule this thing. People would have gotten killed.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjTiLgrXoAENvLO?format=png&name=small)
Quote from: Que on December 07, 2022, 10:33:47 AM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FjTiLgrXoAENvLO?format=png&name=small)
I'm guessing the
NY Times really did print that original headline. The
NYT has deliberately reduced itself to a risibly unserious paper, I am sad to say.
Let's talk about (heh!) negotiations. Russia wants security guarantees. Now remember, NATO is supposed to be the enemy that provoked the invasion of Ukraine. The NATOese want to destroy Russia, and Ukraine has to be destroyed to frustrate their plans. Since that project isn't going well, Russia should negotiate a security guarantee with the powers that wish destruction on it. I can't say much for that as a bargaining position. What's the "or else"? Will they threaten to lose more wars?
There is indeed an argument that promising not to do something you weren't doing anyway is a fairly easy concession to make.
Quote from: Madiel on December 07, 2022, 11:39:45 AMThere is indeed an argument that promising not to do something you weren't doing anyway is a fairly easy concession to make.
There are complications. Either the Ukes stay out of NATO and are heavily armed or they're in and are somewhat restricted in armaments but integrated with the allied military. Russia can have one, not both.
Negotiation is folly. Putin would simply use the hiatus to reconstitute his forces and invade Ukraine and/or other nations at some point in the future.
The man is a proven liar, coming from a culture where lying is routine, and even expected.
No negotiations, keep fighting.
LKB,
Warmonger
Meanwhile, a coup was averted in Germany. WTF?
Quote from: Florestan on December 07, 2022, 11:23:03 PMMeanwhile, a coup was averted in Germany. WTF?
And one in Peru.
Quote from: Herman on December 07, 2022, 11:32:51 PMAnd one in Peru.
Well, Peru has a long history of coups so I am not surprised. For the same reason I wouldn't be surprised by a coup in a Sub-Saharan country, either. But Germany? Germany, for God's sake, right in the heart of the EU! Okay, the so-called Heinrich XIII and his gang are nuts but the mere fact they could conceive such a plan is disturbing. All the more as among the conspirators are former police and military officers.
Quote from: Florestan on December 08, 2022, 01:09:32 AMthe so-called Heinrich XIII and his gang are nuts but the mere fact they could conceive such a plan is disturbing. All the more as among the conspirators are former police and military officers.
Well, that's the beauty of the internet. One of the more puzzling things is that everywhere these movements are protesting 'globalism', and yet nothing is more international in character than these internet-fuelled violent protest movements.
They were planning a German version of the Jan 6 2021 Capitol storming, and preferably with some real blood flowing this time.
Troubling thing about these law enforcement offs is they steal weapons and ammo for private use. And these guys cover for each other.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 08, 2022, 01:20:35 AMSuch things are not entirely unknown in places such as the United Kingdom, either!
https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/lord-mountbatten-did-prince-philip-uncle-attempt-lead-coup-harold-wilson-government-crown-true/
To be fair, it appears that our version of Heinrich XIII backed out of the affair long before it got terribly serious, but that an elite was at least discussing the need to replace a democratically-elected government in 1968 might give one pause for breath!
Well, according to the article, not only Mountbatten's role, but the whole thing went no further than a few private chats along the lines of "what if?" and "who then?". The Heinrich XIII affair (or, as a Romanian TV channel aptly put it,
Beerhouse Putsch 2.0) is apparently much more serious and advanced in planning. It's obvious they wouldn't have succeeded but the whole thing could have resulted in casualties and confusion. I imagine waking up one morning in January, turn on the TV and read the headlines: "Ongoing coup in Germany. Heavy shootings in and around Bundestag. President declares State of Siege, curfew, orders army to restore the constitutional order". My first thought would have been:
Ha, ha! Good one, but come on, time to get to the some un-fake news.
Also, if these Reichsburger etc guys had unsuccessfully stormed the Reichstag and killed one or two people before getting arrested, it would have been inspiration for copycats in another capital.
These German plans were partly inspired by events in the USA, and you're really looking at a chain reaction....
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 08, 2022, 01:20:35 AMSuch things are not entirely unknown in places such as the United Kingdom, either!
https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/lord-mountbatten-did-prince-philip-uncle-attempt-lead-coup-harold-wilson-government-crown-true/
To be fair, it appears that our version of Heinrich XIII backed out of the affair long before it got terribly serious, but that an elite was at least discussing the need to replace a democratically-elected government in 1968 might give one pause for breath!
These events were portrayed in Netflix series,
The Crown, season 3, episode 5 (https://www.vulture.com/2019/11/the-crown-recap-season-3-episode-5-coup.html).
Though it never had much likelihood of success, it had attributes of a
real coup, i.e. a conspiracy of rich and financially and socially prominent people, not a small rabble of nutbags.
Quote from: Herman on December 08, 2022, 01:12:57 AMOne of the more puzzling things is that everywhere these movements are protesting 'globalism', and yet nothing is more international in character than these internet-fuelled violent protest movements.
It is not puzzling at all, actually. The criminal insurgents/heroic revolutionaries are actively using the tools of globalization and the global elite against those in power. It is also part of how they get caught. The internet is part of the surveillance state all around the world. Criminal insurgents/heroic revolutionaries are not too bright.
Good to hear Griner is out.
Quote from: milk on December 08, 2022, 05:07:16 AMGood to hear Griner is out.
Thanks for sharing the good news!
So sorry though that Paul Whelan wasn't able to be part of the deal.
PD
I beg to differ. A real coup involves at least actual planning and effective arming; concrete action might or might not take place, depending on how vigilant and informed are the authorities. Mere private talks with no concrete actions or efects whatsoever don't qualify.
Private talks - aka, the right of free association - is a pillar of civilized society. Imagine life without Davos, where people really are plotting to take over the world and establish a neo-feudal society as part of The Great Reset.
Having never heard of the fearsome German royal wrapped up in the dastardly plot to overthrow the German government and establish global royal rule, I had to see what Hank the Eighth looked like:
(https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.179%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_7/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/728c00a083d3e512ee3c706913356a63a4600b26)
Anyone who cannot organize his outfit for the day is incapable of organizing an effective coup.
Well, clearly he didn't think of it as a blacktie event.
Quote from: Todd on December 08, 2022, 06:10:52 AMPrivate talks - aka, the right of free association - is a pillar of civilized society. Imagine life without Davos, where people really are plotting to take over the world and establish a neo-feudal society as part of The Great Reset.
Having never heard of the fearsome German royal wrapped up in the dastardly plot to overthrow the German government and establish global royal rule, I had to see what Hank the Eighth looked like:
(https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.179%2C$multiply_0.9788%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_7/t_crop_custom/q_86%2Cf_auto/728c00a083d3e512ee3c706913356a63a4600b26)
Anyone who cannot organize his outfit for the day is incapable of organizing an effective coup.
It's Hank the Thirteenth, please.
As I understand it, he was the figurehead, not an organizer (to the extent this affair can be called organized)
Russia thought it can win the war in 10 days, but even 10 months hasn't been enough. So, we have a permanent conflict in our hands that may escalate into world war III. 2022 sucked big time and to make things worse I was already mentally tired thanks to 2 years of Covid-19 crap before this year even started. I was so ready for better times, but no! Things got worse. Much worse. I guess 2023 will be nuclear and the last year of human civilisation. My optimism for the future is now completely dead. I am now a full 100 % pessimist. I don't live for the future. For the most part I live in the past trying to enjoy the nostalgic times when I still had a lot of optimism in me and foolishly thought there won't be wars in the 21st century anymore. So, I try to enjoy now, because we might not have much time anymore and even if world war III gets postponed far into the future, I may never be able to be optimistic again. The recent years have been too traumatic for me.
That's why I have been so passive on this board recently and especially in this thread. I concentrate on my own life, my immediate surroundings. I listen to the techno music of early 90's (so nostalgic!). I watch Twin Peaks again on Blu-ray. I'm enjoying the snow we have had so much in Finland. The more I close my eyes from the ugly World, the better I feel mentally. I hardly even follow the news anymore. Why bother, if they only make me depressed?
Quote from: 71 dB on December 09, 2022, 01:39:54 AMRussia thought it can win the war in 10 days, but even 10 months hasn't been enough. So, we have a permanent conflict in our hands that may escalate into world war III. 2022 sucked big time and to make things worse I was already mentally tired thanks to 2 years of Covid-19 crap before this year even started. I was so ready for better times, but no! Things got worse. Much worse. I guess 2023 will be nuclear and the last year of human civilisation. My optimism for the future is now completely dead. I am now a full 100 % pessimist. I don't live for the future. For the most part I live in the past trying to enjoy the nostalgic times when I still had a lot of optimism in me and foolishly thought there won't be wars in the 21st century anymore. So, I try to enjoy now, because we might not have much time anymore and even if world war III gets postponed far into the future, I may never be able to be optimistic again. The recent years have been too traumatic for me.
That's why I have been so passive on this board recently and especially in this thread. I concentrate on my own life, my immediate surroundings. I listen to the techno music of early 90's (so nostalgic!). I watch Twin Peaks again on Blu-ray. I'm enjoying the snow we have had so much in Finland. The more I close my eyes from the ugly World, the better I feel mentally. I hardly even follow the news anymore. Why bother, if they only make me depressed?
Glad that you are finding ways to enjoy life and decrease your stress levels. One thing that I've learned is that listening to the news too much can drive you crazy and, like you have been experiencing, to depression. Hang in there and continue to look for the joy in life...in all of its big and little guises and be grateful for the (often unexpected) them. Harder to do than said I know.
And enjoy many snowy walks...particularly when the sun is shining. Makes such a difference in the wintertime. :)
PD
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on December 09, 2022, 05:40:31 AMGlad that you are finding ways to enjoy life and decrease your stress levels. One thing that I've learned is that listening to the news too much can drive you crazy and, like you have been experiencing, to depression. Hang in there and continue to look for the joy in life...in all of its big and little guises and be grateful for the (often unexpected) them. Harder to do than said I know.
I did follow (Finnish) news less a few years ago, but Covid-19 pandemic made me follow news all the time to be as well informed as possible. During 2021 I started following less, but when the war started I followed it too much and I have needed to cut my news consumption to minimum (the optimal situation is to hear about things exactly once, but that's almost impossible in the current World of constant flow of information everywhere).
Stress levels are difficult to keep down, because the war affects everyones lives so much. Inflation, energy crisis and so on... ...recently I learned about Vagus nerve and how to stimulate it (ear massage) to ease stress and tension, but I am an absolute beginner on this stuff...
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on December 09, 2022, 05:40:31 AMAnd enjoy many snowy walks...particularly when the sun is shining. Makes such a difference in the wintertime. :)
PD
In fact I did do just that today! ;D
US Sounds Alarm Over 'Harmful' Iran-Russia Military Partnership (https://www.barrons.com/news/us-sounds-alarm-over-harmful-iran-russia-military-partnership-01670615111)
Maybe the US should impose sanctions on Iran. That'd show 'em.
In unrelated news:
NATO chief fears Ukraine war could spiral into wider conflict between West and Russia (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-12-09/nato-chief-fears-ukraine-war-could-widen-into-wider-conflict)
Nothing to see here. Keep fighting. No negotiations.
Geo. Will, "warmonger": Slinking away from aiding Ukraine would be a major strategic error
Quote from: Todd on December 09, 2022, 10:56:11 AMUS Sounds Alarm Over 'Harmful' Iran-Russia Military Partnership (https://www.barrons.com/news/us-sounds-alarm-over-harmful-iran-russia-military-partnership-01670615111)
Maybe the US should impose sanctions on Iran. That'd show 'em.
I've said before that rationally the USA should seek
rapprochement or
detent with Iran. It might curb their lean towards Moscow, would certainly put some screws on Saudi Arabia, and would establish a better Sunni-Shia balanced foreign policy.
But of course this is difficult policy for the USA given its many decades long, uncritical support for Israel. This policy has huge domestic support from from various soures.
Quote from: Todd on December 09, 2022, 10:56:11 AMNATO chief fears Ukraine war could spiral into wider conflict between West and Russia (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-12-09/nato-chief-fears-ukraine-war-could-widen-into-wider-conflict)
Nothing to see here. Keep fighting. No negotiations.
What would be negotiated? A Donbas cession to Russia on account of the mock plebiscite? Crimea?
In any case it would require that Putin admit failure to the goals of his "military action", (
i.e. freeing Ukraine the neo-Nazi Western lackey government).
Personally if it would let Putin walk away without admitting total defeat, I might concede Crimea which was given to Ukraine only in the Khrushchev era.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 10, 2022, 05:03:24 AMI've said before that rationally the USA should seek rapprochement or detent with Iran. It might curb their lean towards Moscow, would certainly put some screws on Saudi Arabia, and would establish a better Sunni-Shia balanced foreign policy.
But of course this is difficult policy for the USA given its many decades long, uncritical support for Israel. This policy has huge domestic support from from various soures.
Iran has never scared me. Iranian hatred of America is literally all America's fault. There is no denying that the US removed Mossadegh, armed the corrupt and oppressive Shah, and then imposed decades long sanctions on Iran after the revolution and hostage crisis brouhaha. (And the US suffered the secondary humiliation of a botched rescue mission during said crisis. Oops.) The US is the bad guy here, straight up. But let bygones be bygones. The US should openly pursue "friendly" relations with the Islamic Republic, reorganize the global oil markets as the world weans itself off fossil fuels, and then play off the House of Saud against the Islamic Republic, thereby blending the Carter Doctrine with something that Metternich might recognize. Israel is a secondary concern.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 10, 2022, 05:24:16 AMWhat would be negotiated? A Donbas session to Russia on account of the mock plebiscite? Crimea?
Recognition of the annexation of Crimea, a large-scale carve-up of Ukraine (I'd personally be willing to let Russia rule the whole country*, though one negotiates aways territory for concessions**), and a treaty guaranteeing that Ukraine will never become part of NATO, the EU, or any other Western political/economic/military organization. Again, see what one has to negotiate away, and remember that the US can simply ignore treaties. Putin and other Russians have been clear on their desire to keep Ukraine out of NATO or some other similar arrangement. Keep in mind, I also think that the NATO itself should be dissolved (preferably) or scaled back to pre-1999 membership, so my willingness to carve up Europe like a turkey is rather more freewheeling than most.
* I see Ukraine as a super-sized Yugoslavia and not a country in the standard Western conception.
** This would have the long-term benefit to the US of having Ukraine serve as a source of uprisings and regional violence that would perpetually distract Russia.
Quote from: Todd on December 10, 2022, 05:50:56 AMRecognition of the annexation of Crimea, a large-scale carve-up of Ukraine (I'd personally be willing to let Russia rule the whole country*, though one negotiates aways territory for concessions**), and a treaty guaranteeing that Ukraine will never become part of NATO, the EU, or any other Western political/economic/military organization. Again, see what one has to negotiate away, and remember that the US can simply ignore treaties. Putin and other Russians have been clear on their desire to keep Ukraine out of NATO or some other similar arrangement. Keep in mind, I also think that the NATO itself should be dissolved (preferably) or scaled back to pre-1999 membership, so my willingness to carve up Europe like a turkey is rather more freewheeling than most.
* I see Ukraine as a super-sized Yugoslavia and not a country in the standard Western conception.
** This would have the long-term benefit to the US of having Ukraine serve as a source of uprisings and regional violence that would perpetually distract Russia.
Needless to say, I disagree. Possibly excepting the cession of Crimea which was Russian 'till 1954, otherwise no cessions nor concessions.
Absolutely no guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO, much less the EU.NATO always was and is essentially defensive organization whose adversary was the Soviet Union, and is
with Putin as adversary by his own choice. NATO was
never a direct threat to the Soviet Union or the Russian Federation except in the paranoid obsessions of Stalin and his successors up to and including Putin. Judging by its careful/timid behavior regarding Ukraine invasion, it still isn't.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 10, 2022, 07:28:17 AMAbsolutely no guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO, much less the EU.
This is a path to war.
To be clear, NATO is the important organization, and EU membership is the booby prize to be negotiated away.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 10, 2022, 07:28:17 AMNATO was never a direct threat to the Soviet Union or the Russian Federation except in the paranoid obsessions of Stalin and his successors up to and including Putin.
It absolutely was and remains so.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 10, 2022, 07:28:17 AMJudging by its careful/timid behavior regarding Ukraine invasion, it still isn't.
NATO, meaning the US, has poured weapons into Ukraine. That is not timid. Claims of timidity are keyboard warfare.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on December 10, 2022, 07:45:02 AM...
My point being, I agree with you that I don't get personally worked up about returning Crimea to Russia, since it was only Ukraine's by Khrushev mind-splat in the fifties; but that won't be enough to make Putin take his troops home. He will want (need) some sort of security and water guarantees for Crimea's future viability, such that I can't see him ever being content to give four provinces up for the one he really cares about.
You are quite correct that Putin wouldn't be content with Crimea, a land bridge to Crimea, plus the Donbas. In fact what Putin wants is to restore the Tsarist/Soviet empire.
The only point of conceding Crimea would be to let Putin quite the aggression without seeming to have been totally defeated. Then again he likely wouldn't accept this.
Quote from: Todd on December 10, 2022, 07:34:36 AMThis is a path to war, {not guarantying that Ukraine won't joint NATO}
To be clear, NATO is the important organization, and EU membership is the booby prize to be negotiated away.
But of course you are missing the point of NATO, (quite deliberately I'm sure). Its primary purpose is to defend nations against Russian aggression as demonstrate under both the Tsars and the Soviets. The stronger and more inclusive NATO is, the more likely to achieve this purpose.
I really am trying to understand whether it's because you hate the USA so much or love Russia so much -- Presumably not the latter because if you (or Putin) loved Russia, you would grant the Russia and the Russians would have been much better off if Putin's goal 20 years ago had been to bring Russia into the EU.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 10, 2022, 01:03:37 PMBut of course you are missing the point of NATO, (quite deliberately I'm sure). Its primary purpose is to defend nations against Russian aggression as demonstrate under both the Tsars and the Soviets. The stronger and more inclusive NATO is, the more likely to achieve this purpose.
The point you describe is how it was sold, that is certain. It may even have been true even up through the end of the Cold War, at least from a certain standpoint. As Senator Taft's quote provided earlier indicates, NATO has always had critics who questioned its necessity, actual purpose, and how it would ultimately be used.
After the collapse of the USSR, there was no longer a justification for NATO's continued existence. Russia is not the USSR. The USSR's economy was once a near peer to that of the US. All of the former Soviet countries combined are not today, and Russia's GDP is now one-twelfth that of the US. Russia is the most capable military threat the US faces right now, but as the Russo-Ukrainian War demonstrates, it is not, in fact, a near peer in conventional capabilities. The expansion of NATO since the collapse of the USSR represents an expansion of American power and willful subjugation to that power by ever more European countries. Imperial expansion is not always resisted by vassals.
There is a point that is typically missed in discussions about NATO, and it is always missed by small, weak countries that understandably crave US protection: the expansion of NATO does not enhance American national security or further US economic interests. It overextends the US. It costs too much, and it does so as transfer payments devour an incrementally yet relentlessly growing portion of the budget and GDP. The United States is safe from Russia. The United States will not be invaded by Russia. (Canada can basically get a free ride, I should point out, since any attack on the North American continent would rightly be viewed as an existential threat to the US that should be met by all necessary force, up to and including the use of strategic nuclear weapons.) Eastern European countries may face threats from Russia, but so what? If Ukraine or <
insert NATO country added since 1990 here> is dominated or ruled by Russia, it does not threaten American national security. Only material economic interests in older NATO allies make any threats posed by Russia significant, and those should be examined more thoroughly to assess whether even those make sense to defend, or if Europeans themselves should shoulder the entire burden of European security. Given that European countries have a combined GDP that exceeds that of the US and greater aggregate wealth, the answer is obvious. Europe should defend itself.
It is not the responsibility of the US to protect Europe, to promote democracy, to ensure human rights, or to advance the other soft power goals of Western institutions. Western ideals are not universal and attempts to further expand them are dangerous and foolish. It is the responsibility of the federal government of the US to protect Americans and American interests. Continuing expansion of or even just maintenance of NATO does not do that. NATO will not last forever, so the more important question is how it is dissolved, by choice or as the result of defeat in war. The former is infinitely preferable to the latter.
I wonder if it can be seen as a cynical maneuver of Putin's to force the U.S. to take Griner only and first in exchange as this can only be divisive in American politics. Whelan should have been prioritized and Putin knows it? Just a thought.
Quote from: milk on December 10, 2022, 03:23:41 PMI wonder if it can be seen as a cynical maneuver of Putin's to force the U.S. to take Griner only and first in exchange as this can only be divisive in American politics. Whelan should have been prioritized and Putin knows it? Just a thought.
What criticisms could one level against an exchange of a WNBA player for an arms dealer so infamous that he has a wicked nickname and got the 60 Minutes treatment? The Griner-Bout deal is like my favorite coffee, fair trade.
I don't understand why people think Iranians hate the US. Israel don't signify. Iran and Israel were allies under the Shah. Iranian Jews had to flee after the revolution, along with many middle class Iranians who came to the US. Of course the poorer dumbass regions featured bigotry, just like in the US.
Americans who visit Iran have a very different picture of what Iranians think. The regime is hated, the West is not. I would think recent events make that plain.
I talked to my Iranian dentist and she said her family had to leave after she got her degree. I asked "In 1979?" and she said yes. I thought I'd tell a humanoid interest story for no reason.
Quote from: Todd on December 10, 2022, 03:33:21 PMWhat criticisms could one level against an exchange of a WNBA player for an arms dealer so infamous that he has a wicked nickname and got the 60 Minutes treatment? The Griner-Bout deal is like my favorite coffee, fair trade.
I'm happy for her but it does seem like a strange humiliation for the west. Why do I have a feeling they're laughing at the U.S.? And it only causes more divisiveness in American politics. She's very lucky. I hope she keeps her head down now or maybe quietly advocates for this specific cause.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 10, 2022, 01:03:37 PMBut of course you are missing the point of NATO, (quite deliberately I'm sure). Its primary purpose is to defend nations against Russian aggression as demonstrate under both the Tsars and the Soviets. The stronger and more inclusive NATO is, the more likely to achieve this purpose.
I really am trying to understand whether it's because you hate the USA so much or love Russia so much -- Presumably not the latter because if you (or Putin) loved Russia, you would grant the Russia and the Russians would have been much better off if Putin's goal 20 years ago had been to bring Russia into the EU.
In trying to understand Todd's motivations, consider the following options:
1. A complete disdain for centralised government as evidenced over many years (although hey, Moscow controlling Kyiv would apparently be fine because it isn't affecting him).
2. Trolling.
Quote from: milk on December 10, 2022, 03:43:51 PMWhy do I have a feeling they're laughing at the U.S.?
Nah, no way. Both sides negotiated like champs. Settlement negotiations should be smooth sailing with an optimal outcome when they happen.
Quote from: Todd on December 10, 2022, 01:42:50 PM...
After the collapse of the USSR, there was no longer a justification for NATO's continued existence.
Events have proven otherwise.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 11, 2022, 07:14:41 AMEvents have proven otherwise.
No, they have not. NATO expansion provoked Russian aggression.
From the Gray Lady (an ultra-wealthy family's plaything) via Yahoo: Spat Over Patriot Missiles Reveals Deepening Rifts in Europe Over Ukraine (https://news.yahoo.com/spat-over-patriot-missiles-reveals-161214554.html)
Some Eastern European "allies" are reckless in the extreme, and their bellicosity risks needless and deadly escalation of the war. I'm unambiguously Team Germany in the Germany-Poland spat.
From the LA Times (a billionaire's plaything): U.S. policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow (https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-12-11/ukraine-drones)
Ukrainians must understand that this is America's proxy war. Ukrainian interests really are secondary. As Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has said publicly, US policy is to weaken Russia, but to quote Joseph Robinette Biden Jr from this article, "We're trying to avoid World War III." Zelensky should take his Puppet of the Year award, be happy, and follow orders.
Hopefully the people who matter will decide to negotiate soon.
The center of gravity of European defense has moved east from countries with big GDPs and small armies to countries with smaller GDPs and bigger armies.
The US and I think the UK will hang with the Easties. France and Germany may find they are out of a job.
In technical parlance Germany is kind of fucked. They go fucked themselves and then the world piled in. They can pay for expensive gas for heat but not for manufacturing.
(https://www.iwp.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Pilsudskis-revised-plan-for-the-Intermarium-1024x905.png)
Yeah, it'll be something like this but with Ukraine. Russia will have these guys instead of the peacemongers of NATO to deal with. Well, it's their own fault they didn't know what a good thing they had with NATO expansion.
Quote from: Todd on December 11, 2022, 07:49:22 AMUkrainians must understand that this is America's proxy war.
Far be it from
YOU to tell the Ukrainians how to see the war.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 11, 2022, 09:09:47 AMFar be it from YOU to tell the Ukrainians how to see the war.
That is the job of the United States Secretary of Defense.
Quote from: drogulus on December 11, 2022, 08:45:49 AMThe center of gravity of European defense has moved east [....]
(https://www.iwp.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Pilsudskis-revised-plan-for-the-Intermarium-1024x905.png)
Interesting map!! With pre WW II borders... ;D
Quote from: Fëanor on December 11, 2022, 09:09:47 AMFar be it from YOU to tell the Ukrainians how to see the war.
He's been doing it all year. It is highly insulting to Ukrainians and people of Ukrainian background, who have been struggling against forms of Russian control for GENERATIONS.
Quote from: Todd on December 11, 2022, 07:49:22 AMFrom the Gray Lady (an ultra-wealthy family's plaything) via Yahoo: Spat Over Patriot Missiles Reveals Deepening Rifts in Europe Over Ukraine (https://news.yahoo.com/spat-over-patriot-missiles-reveals-161214554.html)
Some Eastern European "allies" are reckless in the extreme, and their bellicosity risks needless and deadly escalation of the war. I'm unambiguously Team Germany in the Germany-Poland spat.
From the LA Times (a billionaire's plaything): U.S. policy makes Ukraine fight by rules Russia doesn't follow (https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-12-11/ukraine-drones)
Ukrainians must understand that this is America's proxy war. Ukrainian interests really are secondary. As Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has said publicly, US policy is to weaken Russia, but to quote Joseph Robinette Biden Jr from this article, "We're trying to avoid World War III." Zelensky should take his Puppet of the Year award, be happy, and follow orders.
Hopefully the people who matter will decide to negotiate soon.
Taking the above as written, why would the US want to see negotiations? Ukraine is willing to keep fighting, seemingly without unduly "imminentizing the eschaton," Russia continues to be weakened, the US is selling more natural gas and gathering interesting data on its weapons systems and the capabilities of its adversary, and Zelensky has risen from low-rent comedian to Times person of the year. What's the downside from your perspective again?
Quote from: Que on December 11, 2022, 01:12:38 PMInteresting map!! With pre WW II borders... ;D
Donald Rumsfeld's New Europe ascendant.
Everyone in the world loves George W Bush.
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 11, 2022, 01:41:27 PMZelensky has risen from low-rent comedian to Times person of the year.
(https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/rockcms/2022-12/time-person-of-the-year-2022-volodymyr-zelensky-cover-jp-221206-f32207.jpg)
(https://static.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20071219&t=2&i=2545250&r=2007-12-19T205407Z_01_N19568348_RTRUKOP_0_PICTURE0&w=800)
(https://content.time.com/time/magazine/archive/covers/1940/1101400101_400.jpg)
Quote from: Que on December 11, 2022, 01:12:38 PMInteresting map!! With pre WW II borders... ;D
The idea dates from long before WWII and NATO.
From the Wiki:
The proposed federation was meant to emulate the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, that, from the end of the 16th century to the end of the 18th, had united the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. Intermarium complemented Piłsudski's other geopolitical vision, Prometheism, whose goal was the dismemberment of the Russian Empire and that Empire's divestment of its territorial acquisitions.
Intermarium was perceived by some Lithuanians as a threat to their newly established independence, and by some Ukrainians as a threat to their aspirations for independence, and while France backed the proposal, it was opposed by the Soviet Union and by most other Western powers. Within two decades of the failure of Piłsudski's grand scheme, all the countries that he had viewed as candidates for membership in the Intermarium federation had fallen to the Soviet Union or to Nazi Germany, except for Finland (which suffered some territorial losses in the 1939–40 Winter War with the Soviet Union). I think I get it. It's not so good to be squozed between great powers and be invaded every time there's a world war and even maybe when there's not. How about we form our own gang, kind of like a NATO only with balls?
One should not misunderstand what Time person of the year actually means. As can be read from when Putin won...
https://web.archive.org/web/20080911042817/http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/personoftheyear/article/0,28804,1690753_1690757_1696150,00.html
Quote from: drogulus on December 11, 2022, 03:43:31 PMI think I get it. It's not so good to be squozed between great powers and be invaded every time there's a world war and even maybe when there's not. How about we form our own gang, kind of like a NATO only with balls?
I don't get it all. Do you suggest that Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, the Baltics, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro (all the green countries on your map that are currently NATO members, minus Serbia and Macedonia which are not) should leave NATO and form their own military alliance, with an aggressive stance against Russia? If yes, then it's sheer insanity. If no, then what do you suggest, actually?
Quote from: Florestan on December 12, 2022, 01:05:06 AMI don't get it all. Do you suggest that Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, the Baltics, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro (all the green countries on your map that are currently NATO members, minus Serbia and Macedonia which are not) should leave NATO and form their own military alliance, with an aggressive stance against Russia? If yes, then it's sheer insanity. If no, then what do you suggest, actually?
They don't have to leave NATO. They don't have to invade Russia, or even threaten to do it. Russia would be on notice that Intermarium states will come to each others aid no matter what the French and Germans decide, or what Hungary vetoes. As for the US, it's already moving east.
Quote from: Madiel on December 11, 2022, 06:11:02 PMOne should not misunderstand what Time person of the year actually means. As can be read from when Putin won...
https://web.archive.org/web/20080911042817/http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/personoftheyear/article/0,28804,1690753_1690757_1696150,00.html
If one can tear ones eyes away from the shiny objects for a moment, my point was: Given that Todd had just focused on several major US foreign policy objectives being advanced by current policy — the very reasons "the people who matter" choose
not to negotiate — I was wondering why he thought that was the place to restate his hope that they would negotiate.
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 12, 2022, 10:24:30 AMI was wondering why he thought that was the place to restate his hope that they would negotiate.
Negotiations good.
War bad.
Hope that helps.
Quote from: Todd on December 12, 2022, 11:02:57 AMNegotiations good.
War bad.
Hope that helps.
Brilliant.
Quote from: Todd on December 12, 2022, 11:02:57 AMNegotiations good.
War bad.
Hope that helps.
Doesn't "fuck off out of our country and we'll stop kicking your demoralized and unmotivated army's ass" count as negotiation?
The treacherous, corrupt and anti-democratic government of Hungary has been bribed into cooperation:
EU breaks Hungary stalemate to approve €18bn aid plan
European Union governments on Monday struck a deal with Hungary that sorts out financial aid for Ukraine in 2023 and gains Budapest's approval for a global minimum corporate tax, all in exchange for EU flexibility about funds paid to Hungary.
The complex deal came after months of wrangling between EU institutions, member countries and Hungary and was spelled out on Monday by the council that represents EU member governments and by diplomats speaking anonymously. It means Ukraine will get €18bn from the EU budget next year.
Budapest had been vetoing making payments by that stable, predictable and cheaper means, rather than by the bilateral loans that member countries have been extending to Kyiv.
Quote from: Todd on December 12, 2022, 11:02:57 AMNegotiations good.
War bad.
Hope that helps.
Disingenuous on both accounts.
Firstly you know very well the difference between negotiations and unconditional surrender and capitulation designed to dismember a country and subjugate a nation.
Secondly I have never noticed that you ever had an issue with war as such. On the contrary, war is an integral part of your view on geopolitics.
Quote from: Que on December 13, 2022, 12:58:59 AMThe treacherous, corrupt and anti-democratic government of Hungary has been bribed into cooperation:
As an aside: I don't know how treacherous, corrupt and anti-democratic the Austrian government is but maybe they too can be bribed into stop making false claims, and blatantly lying, about Romania and into not blocking anymore a well-deserved Schengen accession. And I'm sorry to say that your own government, acted rather hypocritically and duplicitously. As the Polish Foreign Affairs Minister put it, it's simply inacceptable that two EU member states be humiliated for 11 years. Just saying. ;D
Zelensky suggests to Biden that global peace summit be convened (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/12/7380320/)
Quote from: Florestan on December 13, 2022, 02:10:57 AMAs an aside: I don't know how treacherous, corrupt and anti-democratic the Austrian government is but maybe they too can be bribed into stop making false claims, and blatantly lying, about Romania and into not blocking anymore a well-deserved Schengen accession. And I'm sorry to say that your own government, acted rather hypocritically and duplicitously. As the Polish Foreign Affairs Minister put it, it's simply inacceptable that two EU member states be humiliated for 11 years. Just saying. ;D
I'm aware of these tensions. Like with all things, with free movement of people, with the good will also come the bad. I think Romania has a bit of an image problem there. I personally don't think in reality there is not a bigger problem than in many other countries, but general public and political opinion leans in another direction.
Orban's tacit support of Putin has alienated Hungary from the other members of the Visegrad group, and notably Poland. And it turned Ukraine into an enemy for many years to come. At some point Hungary's chickens will come home to roost...
Quote from: Que on December 13, 2022, 02:52:09 AMthink Romania has a bit of an image problem there. I personally don't think in reality there is not a bigger problem than in many other countries, but general public and political opinion leans in another direction.
That's true but I should have thought that a responsible government acts guided not by narrow electoral concerns or mere biased hearsay but by general principles and verifiable facts. Unfortunately, it was not the case and all the talks about European solidarity proved false and hypocritical. The Austrian veto and The Netherlands's duplicitous stance (which created a lose-lose situation) actually blew the wind in the sails of nationalists and eurosceptics, who have been rather dormant lately but now vociferosuly and actively call for a boycot of Austrian products, gas stations and banks and foment a heated anti-Austrian sentiment. I'm afraid that, because of narrow and mean electoral interests, the until now excellent relationship between Romania and Austria has been gravely and, at least in the short term, irreparably damaged, including at diplomatic level. Does this serves the interests of Austria or the EU? Hell, no. It only serves the interests of those who relish a weak and divided EU --- and we all know who they are.
Quote from: Que on December 13, 2022, 01:06:40 AMDisingenuous on both accounts.
Incorrect across the board.
First, unconditional surrender is a rare outcome of any war, and as a matter of policy the most prominent global example is WWII, which again provides nothing but a false analogy. Countries and other political entities have lost territory as part of war for millennia. It is the way of the world. It is part of the best potential outcome in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Second, war is bad. That anyone should have to repeat that or defend that notion demonstrates how people can rationalize anything. I do openly acknowledge that war is an intrinsic part of the international system, always has been, and always will be. I merely seek to eliminate US involvement in wars that do not threaten US security or interests. The Russo-Ukrainian War does not threaten either. It is a very bad thing that many thousands have died and many thousands more may very well die, but from an American perspective, it does not matter. We should not be involved. The same goes for all other current wars around the globe - even the ones the US had a hand in starting or prolonging. To aid in the decrease of US involvement in wars around the world, the US should reduce its global military presence, starting with Europe; decrease the size of its military; decrease the military/paramilitary budgets of its intelligence agencies; cut back on and hopefully eliminate arms sales (another area where the USA is #1); eliminate the sharing of technologies with all but a tiny number of allies (ie, the English speaking ones); and withdraw from any international organizations that attempt to adjudicate or manage global conflicts. At the very the least, the US should not fund such institutions. With the exceptions of WWII and 9/11, the US has engaged only in wars of choice since 1865, and even those ultimately could have been avoided, the disastrous war in Afghanistan, especially. (It is telling that the DOD falsely describes the latter as a "necessary war of self-defense".) People around the world really ought not to go around slaughtering each other, but they will. So what? The US need not be involved every time, if at all.
Quote from: Florestan on December 13, 2022, 02:39:18 AMZelensky suggests to Biden that global peace summit be convened (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/12/7380320/)
This could give Putin an out if he wants one. Certainly the US wants precisely that, not only because war is bad, but chaos in the wake of war is super bad when nukes are involved.
Getting Putin to the "yes negotiations" point might take many more drunken conscripts dying and running away first, as well as more boom boom on Russian territory.
Quote from: drogulus on December 13, 2022, 08:46:56 AMThis could give Putin an out if he wants one. Certainly the US wants precisely that, not only because war is bad, but chaos in the wake of war is super bad when nukes are involved.
Getting Putin to the "yes negotiations" point might take many more drunken conscripts dying and running away first, as well as more boom boom on Russian territory.
That very Pilsudski map you posted shows that, although Czechoslovakia and Poland were victims of aggression (the latter, twice so), the peace agreed upon after WWII made them lose territories --- in the benefit of Ukraine, no less. Moreover, Hungarian and Romanian territories also ended up in Ukraine as well. Any notion that today peace can be achieved without Ukraine renouncing some territories (Crimea first and foremost, then a terrestrial patch linking the peninsula with Russia) is delusional.
Quote from: Florestan on December 13, 2022, 09:29:02 AMThat very Pilsudski map you posted shows that, although Czechoslovakia and Poland were victims of aggression (the latter, twice so), the peace agreed upon after WWII made them lose territories --- in the benefit of Ukraine, no less. Moreover, Hungarian and Romanian territories also ended up in Ukraine as well. Any notion that today peace can be achieved without Ukraine renouncing some territories (Crimea first and foremost, then a terrestrial patch linking the peninsula with Russia) is delusional.
So ... if Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania have a problem Ukraine, let them can take it up with Ukraine in due course.
However they should
NOT leverage the Russian invasion situation to bolster their positions. (So far there is no hint that they would do so -- the Russian threat is acknowledge to be the greater issue.)
Personally I've said they might forfeit Crimea on the basis that it was added to the Ukraine SSR only in 1954. OTOH this wouldn't satisfy Putin who wants, (at minimum), guarantees that Ukraine not drift into the EU or NATO spheres.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 13, 2022, 09:44:06 AMSo ... if Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania have a problem Ukraine, let them can take it up with Ukraine in due course. However they should NOT leverage the Russian invasion situation to bolster their positions. (So far there is no hint that they would do so -- the Russian threat is acknowledge to be the greater issue.)
And that is precisely one important part of my point: Czechoslovakia, Poland and Romania, although they lost territories to Ukraine, have no problem with that, on the contrary, they are staunch supporters of Ukraine (Hungary is a special case) --- for the very simple reason that a buffer state between them and Russia is infinitely more preferable to a direct border.
The other important part is that Ukraine should adopt the same rational and reasonable stance: given that the WWII peace treaty gave them (albeit indirectly) territories who were not of their own in 1939, they should be prepared and willing to give up some territories (one of them certainly not their own until 1954, ie Crimea) if they want peace.
Merkel's confession could be a pretext for an International Tribunal (https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/12/13/merkels-confession-could-be-a-pretext-for-an-international-tribunal/)
I'm guessing this is all just Russian disinformation. The Russians basically enjoy omnipotence in the propaganda space.
Merkel admits failures on defense policy; Former German chancellor wants negotiated solution to the Ukraine war. (https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-admit-failure-germany-defense-policy/)
Merkel expects a negotiated settlement and she continues to defend her energy deals with Russia. She is clearly a Russian stooge, incapable of making decisions, and she clearly has no idea what is happening in the world. Fortunately, no one, and certainly no one on GMG, was beguiled by her boundless charisma into thinking she was an effective, significant, and intelligent leader.
Quote from: Todd on December 12, 2022, 11:02:57 AMNegotiations good.
War bad.
Hope that helps.
Maybe you should have told Putin that before he started one.
Your repeated desire that the side that DIDN'T invade come to the negotiating table now that they seem to be winning reads like you dropped onto the planet quite recently. But we know you were here from the start. We have the posts to prove it. Our memory is a lot better than yours seems to be.
Quote from: Florestan on December 13, 2022, 09:58:30 AMThe other important part is that Ukraine should adopt the same rational and reasonable stance: given that the WWII peace treaty gave them (albeit indirectly) territories who were not of their own in 1939, they should be prepared and willing to give up some territories (one of them certainly not their own until 1954, ie Crimea) if they want peace.
Can we not treat 1954 like it's recent? It's not. People have lived entire lives in the Crimean part of Ukraine.
This house wasn't my own until 11 months ago. How LONG it's been mine is not a relevant question, how I got it and whether everyone else accepts the method is the issue. And Russia signed that it accepted the border.
Conflict is never going to end so long as people reach back to whatever point in history suits them. Putin wants to invoke Kievan Rus. There has to be a resolution, a finality, that things can't be undone. I got possession of this house in January. Ukraine got possession of Crimea in 1954, and it is Ukraine's. It would be Ukraine's if they got it in 1854, or 2009.
Quote from: Todd on December 13, 2022, 05:08:10 AMIncorrect across the board.
First, unconditional surrender is a rare outcome of any war, and as a matter of policy the most prominent global example is WWII, which again provides nothing but a false analogy. Countries and other political entities have lost territory as part of war for millennia. It is the way of the world. It is part of the best potential outcome in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
So your best outcome is Ukraine to submit to Russia's territorial demands, and probably other demands as well. I can't say this reply changed my mind. This reeks of a 1938 scenario. We really can't afford to reward the aggressor here, that would be a continuous future threat to peace in Europe.
QuoteSecond, war is bad. That anyone should have to repeat that or defend that notion demonstrates how people can rationalize anything. I do openly acknowledge that war is an intrinsic part of the international system, always has been, and always will be. I merely seek to eliminate US involvement in wars that do not threaten US security or interests. The Russo-Ukrainian War does not threaten either. It is a very bad thing that many thousands have died and many thousands more may very well die, but from an American perspective, it does not matter. We should not be involved. The same goes for all other current wars around the globe - even the ones the US had a hand in starting or prolonging. To aid in the decrease of US involvement in wars around the world, the US should reduce its global military presence, starting with Europe; decrease the size of its military; decrease the military/paramilitary budgets of its intelligence agencies; cut back on and hopefully eliminate arms sales (another area where the USA is #1); eliminate the sharing of technologies with all but a tiny number of allies (ie, the English speaking ones); and withdraw from any international organizations that attempt to adjudicate or manage global conflicts. At the very the least, the US should not fund such institutions. With the exceptions of WWII and 9/11, the US has engaged only in wars of choice since 1865, and even those ultimately could have been avoided, the disastrous war in Afghanistan, especially. (It is telling that the DOD falsely describes the latter as a "necessary war of self-defense".) People around the world really ought not to go around slaughtering each other, but they will. So what? The US need not be involved every time, if at all.
What you're saying is that this war is bad... for the US. Got it, and no surprise there either. It is happens to be bad for Ukraine as well, but it didn't start it and it is fighting for its survival. Did the US govt made this fighting chance possible? Yes, in fact it did. Did previous US govts engage in several desastrous wars in the past decades? Yes. Is this the same? No.
As a European, I am well aware that this might be the last time that the US is going to save our skin. And we got extremely lucky that Biden got elected instead of Trump, who would have dropped us like a hot brick.
Quote from: Que on December 13, 2022, 11:00:49 AMThis reeks of a 1938 scenario.
On the internet, everything is always like WWII. This is well established.
Quote from: Que on December 13, 2022, 11:00:49 AMWhat you're saying is that this war is bad... for the US.
No, war is bad for everyone. The US should not be involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The United States as a country has no security or economic interests at stake in Ukraine. Ukrainian democracy or territorial integrity just don't cut it as material interests. But, you see, this war is actually good for some Americans. Arms manufacturers, energy firms, careerists in various government agencies that manage war, they all benefit. This military-industrial complex first described by Ike is what actively and publicly seeks influence and guides America's militaristic foreign policy. Then various people around the world actively support said policies and even celebrate and defend policies first forwarded by George W Bush. That has been happening on this forum.
You are correct that this war is not the same as the disastrous wars the US has engaged in this century. It is much, much worse. It could literally end up being for all the marbles because Russia is a powerful country capable of destroying the world. Ukraine isn't worth it.
Quote from: Que on December 13, 2022, 11:00:49 AMAs a European, I am well aware that this might be the last time that the US is going to save our skin.
The US should cut Europe off right now, today, December 13, 2022. It won't, but it should.
Quote from: Madiel on December 13, 2022, 10:55:32 AMConflict is never going to end so long as people reach back to whatever point in history suits them.
Yes, agreed, precisely my point. Ask Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Romania --- all of them have been told that their accession to NATO depends on them not having any territorial contention / pretention whatsoever with / over their neighbors. We all willingly complied, even if it implied giving up for good territories that never ever belonged to Ukraine. We all willingly comply with it today.
QuotePutin wants to invoke Kievan Rus.
And Zelensky wants to invoke post-WWII, post-1954 Ukraine.
Which means both Putin and Zelensky claim territories which at one time or another did not belong to their current states.
What Is to Be Done? ---
Chernyshevsky's question remain unanswered.
I mean, at the very least Crimea was never ever Ukrainian territory before the arbitrary decision of Khrushtchev, no matter that Zelensky may twist and turn history as much as he wants.
And now I ask you, people of genuinely good will: if Poland, Czechoslovakia and Romania gave up for good territories which belonged to them prior to WWII in favor of Ukraine in exchange for accession to NATO, why should Ukraine insist, and be supported, that no peace can be signed unless Ukraine's territory after WWII is secured?
As a matter of simple geography, Crimea is an appendage of Ukraine. From Russia to Crimea requires either a bridge over water or passage through Ukrainian terrority.
Making Crimea an independent state might work, although it would depend on Ukraine for potable water and land access to the rest of the world.
Quote from: JBS on December 13, 2022, 01:41:23 PMMaking Crimea an independent state might work,
Might work my a$$...
Crimea was never ever part of Ukraine until Khrushtchev --- damned be his memory!
Quote from: Florestan on December 13, 2022, 12:42:36 PMYes, agreed, precisely my point. Ask Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Romania --- all of them have been told that their accession to NATO depends on them not having any territorial contention / pretention whatsoever with / over their neighbors. We all willingly complied, even if it implied giving up for good territories that never ever belonged to Ukraine. We all willingly comply with it today.
And Zelensky wants to invoke post-WWII, post-1954 Ukraine.
Which means both Putin and Zelensky claim territories which at one time or another did not belong to their current states.
What Is to Be Done? --- Chernyshevsky's question remain unanswered.
Your argument is ridiculous. If you can't see the difference between current possession and past possession, you can't see the difference between me claiming the house I bought this year and me claiming the house I sold this year.
Both of them are houses that at one time or another did not belong to me.
Quote from: JBS on December 13, 2022, 01:41:23 PMMaking Crimea an independent state might work, although it would depend on Ukraine for potable water and land access to the rest of the world.
Quote from: Florestan on December 13, 2022, 01:47:51 PMMight work my a$$...
It is a very positive development that people are starting to imagine the possibilities of carving up Ukraine for peace.
It is the only path forward.
Lust for unconditional surrender leads to WWIII.
Quote from: Todd on December 13, 2022, 02:39:13 PMIt is a very positive development that people are starting to imagine the possibilities of carving up Ukraine for peace.
It is the only path forward.
Lust for unconditional surrender leads to WWIII.
Balls.
No matter how he threatens, or how his media slaves try to scare the world, Putin won't use nukes - period.
What he will do is keep rattling the nuclear sabre, in hopes of keeping the West off balance.
The West should stay the course. Help Ukraine in the anti-air domain, and continue supplying the needed artillery and ammunition which will allow them to eventually prevail.
Ukraine should concede nothing. Allowing Putin any sort of territorial victory simply sets the stage for another land grab elsewhere, as long as he's in power.
There
are worse things than war. Slavery and cultural genocide, for starters.
Anyone know Todd's age? How many years does it take to acquire that many Beethoven cycles?
Stop feeding the troll. I know I have to take my own advice sometimes, but THAT kind of post makes it really obvious he is trolling.
Quote from: Todd on December 13, 2022, 05:33:07 PMMeh. Churchill said something along those lines. Late middle age and elderly posters cowering behind their keyboards carry no weight. Ukraine ain't worth shit. It's OK if Ukraine is in enslaved.
Just quoting the above in case he sobers up and deletes it.
Quote from: Florestan on December 13, 2022, 01:47:51 PMMight work my a$$...
Crimea was never ever part of Ukraine until Khrushtchev --- damned be his memory!
I'm pretty sure Putin could ultimately have kept Crimea. But he was greedy...
Now the issue with Crimea is the risk of rewarding aggression.
Since loyalty to Ukraine is the lowest in Crimea, an option would be to let Russia have it - after a referendum in a couple of years, if it is prepared to make large concessions on other issues.
But before it comes to that, it might even be necessary for Ukraine to retake Crimea first, to force Russia's hand at the negotiating table.
Quote from: LKB on December 13, 2022, 09:52:27 PMJust quoting the above in case he {Todd} sobers up and deletes it.
Ultimately it isn't just Ukraine, it's the whole of the former Soviet empire, (at least), and along the way, a greatly weakened EU and NATO.
In Todd's inverted reality the USA is the hegemon that needs to be weaken. Even supposing this were reality, who would you prefer as Emperor, Biden or Putin? :o ::)
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 03:58:01 AMIn Todd's inverted reality the USA is the hegemon that needs to be weaken.
The US is the global hegemon. There's a vast literature in IR publications covering that. US global hegemony is not universally accepted, of course, but it is very widely accepted. Authors who reject that characterization recognize the unique position the US holds in the international system. Among those who do accept the premise, most authors prefer the US to maintain its relative power, some do not. I do not. Most of the rest of the world is simply not worth American blood and treasure. I recognize that non-Americans have no problem expending those two resources. They have no just claim to do so.
There's almost universal agreement in IR publications that the changes to the international system are causing a shift in the balance of power globally and a strain on international organizations. In the context of such a shift, US policy makers will need to decide if the US should attempt to exert the same degree of global control that it does now, further overextending itself, or if it pushes to reorganize international institutions, and financial and security relationships. First Trump and now Biden have both hobbled the WTO for instance, and Biden has pushed through more aggressive mercantilist legislation than even Trump did in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act. Biden has also maintained the majority of Trump era tariffs levied against China. We're witnessing shifts right now, but some people prefer to pretend they are not happening.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 03:58:01 AMEven supposing this were reality, who would you prefer as Emperor, Biden or Putin? :o ::)
Typical Eurocentrism. Xi or his successor would become the next modern-day equivalent of an emperor if the changes to the international system resulted in one power supplanting the US. The actual, observable trajectory of international relations is a return to multi-polarity. When US hegemony finally dies, around the same time that dollar dominance dies as it happens, the world will have already arrived at a place where China and India, at least, have emerged as either global actors, or actors sufficiently powerful to help direct politics and war on the Eurasian landmass.
Quote from: Todd on December 14, 2022, 05:11:38 AM...
Typical Eurocentrism. Xi or his successor would become the next modern-day equivalent of an emperor if the changes to the international system resulted in one power supplanting the US. The actual, observable trajectory of international relations is a return to multi-polarity. When US hegemony finally dies, around the same time that dollar dominance dies as it happens, the world will have already arrived at a place where China and India, at least, have emerged as either global actors, or actors sufficiently powerful to help direct politics and war on the Eurasian landmass.
Well here at least are some valid points.
USA prominence, (I won't say hegemony), will decline over time and China and possibly India will catch up with it. (Some would argue that Xi is already
de facto Emperor but that's another matter.) All the more reason for a strong EU, (and the bigger the better), to offer some balance against these rising powers.
If Putin had been a more rational actor he would have sought EU membership for Russia, and quite likely would have achieved it by now. Instead is his grandiose vision Was and is to restore a Tsarist/Soviet empire.
The other valid point is about the US dollar's reserve currency status. The US economy is
even now much more powerful than it would be without its currency's status. That is, with out the USD's reserve status the USA's trade balance deficit would have put the USD in the toilet.
Quote from: LKB on December 13, 2022, 05:21:27 PMThere are worse things than war. Slavery and cultural genocide, for starters.
Slavery and cultural genocide are things that accompany war. They're the same thing.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 06:09:22 AMIf Putin had been a more rational actor he would have sought EU membership for Russia, and quite likely would have achieved it by now.
He is a rational actor. His goal was and is to take as much money as is possible off the economy and enrich himself and his coterie.
Joining the EU would have made that impossible, so he did not join.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 06:09:22 AMAll the more reason for a strong EU, (and the bigger the better), to offer some balance against these rising powers.
Only if you think that US and European interests will continue to align in terms of economic policy or foreign policy. The IRA has created a public rift in the former, and with the potential future US administrations currently on the political horizon, these rifts will most likely grow as mercantilism becomes more entrenched.
The best military power that the US could partner with to counter China, and India if it becomes overtly hostile to the US, is Russia. Unfortunately, that option is not open for years to come, though it should not be ruled out. The US should keep open all options and should not view Europe as a permanent partner. Europeans openly act in bad faith regarding security, and there is no basis to conclude that once the Russo-Ukrainian War ends that Europeans will act differently. We are already witnessing backpedaling in Germany, for instance.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 06:09:22 AMIf Putin had been a more rational actor he would have sought EU membership for Russia, and quite likely would have achieved it by now.
Putin is a rational actor. He does not want to be part of the EU. That is entirely rational. It requires an entirely blinkered, Eurocentric outlook to think it rational to want to be part of the EU and irrational to not want to be a part of it. Sovereignty is critical for some states, and while Europeans may happily sacrifice sovereignty, others will not and should not. It is irrational to think that the EU is universally or even widely appealing.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 06:09:22 AMThe other valid point is about the US dollar's reserve currency status. The US economy is even now much more powerful than it would be without its currency's status. That is, with out the USD's reserve status the USA's trade balance deficit would have put the USD in the toilet.
The eventual demise of the dollar as a reserve currency is one of the primary reasons the US should pursue a policy to destroy or at least severely weaken the EU and the Euro.
Quote from: Todd on December 14, 2022, 07:14:01 AMOnly if you think that US and European interests will continue to align in terms of economic policy or foreign policy. The IRA has created a public rift in the former, and with the potential future US administrations currently on the political horizon, these rifts will most likely grow as mercantilism becomes more entrenched.
The USA isn't in the EU ...
Quote from: Todd on December 14, 2022, 07:14:01 AMPutin is a rational actor. He does not want to be part of the EU. That is entirely rational. It requires an entirely blinkered, Eurocentric outlook to think it rational to want to be part of the EU and irrational to not want to be a part of it. Sovereignty is critical for some states, and while Europeans may happily sacrifice sovereignty, others will not and should not. It is irrational to think that the EU is universally or even widely appealing.
It's not "blinkered Eurocentric" if you happen to be in Europe. But apparently Putin doesn't see that. Peter the Great was a few steps ahead of him 400 years ago.
Quote from: Todd on December 14, 2022, 07:14:01 AMThe eventual demise of the dollar as a reserve currency is one of the primary reasons the US should pursue a policy to destroy or at least severely weaken the EU and the Euro.
Shear nonsense.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 08:42:44 AMThe USA isn't in the EU ...
Correct.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 08:42:44 AMIt's not "blinkered Eurocentric" if you happen to be in Europe. But apparently Putin doesn't see that. Peter the Great was a few steps ahead of him 400 years ago.
Incorrect.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 14, 2022, 08:42:44 AMShear nonsense.
Incorrect.
Russia's "dirty bomb" disinformation, annotated (https://thebulletin.org/2022/12/russias-dirty-bomb-disinformation-annotated/#.Y5oflxkLDT8.twitter)
Quote from: LKB on December 13, 2022, 09:52:27 PMJust quoting the above in case he sobers up and deletes it.
Is that an example of
saying the quiet part out loud?
Quote from: LKB on December 13, 2022, 09:52:27 PMJust quoting the above in case he sobers up and deletes it.
Also fine for those, who have put him on their ignore list, to see that he must stay there.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on December 14, 2022, 10:20:41 AMIs that an example of saying the quiet part out loud?
Pretty much.
And there's really no available damage control either, once someone has explicitly stated that they really are as repellent as they've seemed when posting.
Quote from: Herman on December 14, 2022, 06:30:59 AMHe {Putin} is a rational actor. His goal was and is to take as much money as is possible off the economy and enrich himself and his coterie.
Joining the EU would have made that impossible, so he did not join.
A good point, whether or not it's Putin's principal motivation.
EU membership would be bound to constrain the avarice of Putin and his lackey oligarchs.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 16, 2022, 03:40:26 AMEU membership would be bound to constrain the avarice of Putin and his lackey oligarchs.
It would also impede Russian sovereignty. It appears impossible for a good number of people to understand that contemporary western political ideas and economic constraints are not as appealing to the entire world as they are to western Europeans. Western ideals are not universal. Public policy is much less so.
Quote from: Todd on December 16, 2022, 05:14:00 AMIt would also impede Russian sovereignty. It appears impossible for a good number of people to understand that contemporary western political ideas and economic constraints are not as appealing to the entire world as they are to western Europeans. Western ideals are not universal. Public policy is much less so.
... And the power-hunger of local dictators and avarice of local oligarchs is the leading reason that the collective rule-of-law of the EU does not appeal to them. Putin's Russian is one example; Brexitiers Britain is another, less extreme example.
Note that cynical elites often leverage "nationalism" to delude the simple-minded and solidify their power.
E.g. Donald Trump with his "MAGA" lie.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 16, 2022, 05:21:06 AM... And the power-hunger of local dictators and avarice of local oligarchs is the leading reason that the collective rule-of-law of the EU does not appeal to them
That is very highly debatable. Not only Putin and Russia dislike the West - and its oligarchs.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 16, 2022, 05:21:06 AM... And the power-hunger of local dictators and avarice of local oligarchs is the leading reason that the collective rule-of-law of the EU does not appeal to them. Putin's Russian is one example; Brexitiers Britain is another, less extreme example.
Note that cynical elites often leverage "nationalism" to delude the simple-minded and solidify their power. E.g. Donald Trump with his "MAGA" lie.
You fundamentally changed your post. It is as wrong as the prior one. Your initial and revised posts necessarily rely on a blinkered, Eurocentric worldview.
Quote from: Todd on December 16, 2022, 06:12:07 AMQuote from: Fëanor on December 16, 2022, 05:21:06 AM... And the power-hunger of local dictators and avarice of local oligarchs is the leading reason that the collective rule-of-law of the EU does not appeal to them. Putin's Russian is one example; Brexitiers Britain is another, less extreme example.
Note that cynical elites often leverage "nationalism" to delude the simple-minded and solidify their power. E.g. Donald Trump with his "MAGA" lie.
You fundamentally changed your post. It is as wrong as the prior one. Your initial and revised posts necessarily rely on a blinkered, Eurocentric worldview.
Not at all. Nationalism is an "opiate of the
preliterate proletariat". Patriotism is a red herring used by Right-wing elites to confound regular citizens.
This true all over the world, by no means only in Europe.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 16, 2022, 09:49:09 AMNationalism is an "opiate of the preliterate". Patriotism is a red herring used by Right-wing elites to confound regular citizens.
Paul Samuelson began questioning the purported benefits of "free trade" in 2004. Do you consider him a preliterate nationalist? Critics on the left and right question the EU's changes to ISDS mechanisms because they do not address the concerns of developing countries and focus instead on intra-bloc trade. Do you consider those critics preliterate nationalists? Critics on the left and right point out that so-called free trade agreements contain non-tariff trade barriers that exploit developing countries. Do you consider them preliterate nationalists? Critics and politicians in non-Western countries argue, convincingly and with facts on their side, that the US and Europe both have historically exploited them and continue to do so, including via structural mechanisms and limitations contained within international organizations. Many of these same people also point out that some conditions imposed in trade and other agreements contain political clauses regarding certain preferred Western concepts - eg, women's rights - that are not at all universal, never have been, and never will be. Do you consider such people preliterate nationalists?
I don't know if you coined the phrase "opiate of the preliterate", or if someone else did, but it means nothing. The nation state remains the primary organizing entity of large-scale political organization and administration around the world, and it serves as the basis of the Westphalian system, which still governs international relations. It is entirely rational for national level politicians to focus on the well-being of the citizens and/or residents of their countries, even if those policies may result in some type of harm, material or immaterial, to other countries. International relations is used to ameliorate imbalances and harms.
Your views, based on what you write, are Eurocentric. That is very common among WEIRD people - ie, people from Western, educated, industrialized, rich and democratic countries. I did not coin that phrase.
How to avoid another world war (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-push-for-peace/)
A Henry Kissinger joint.
Quote from: Todd on December 16, 2022, 10:08:17 AMPaul Samuelson began questioning the purported benefits of "free trade" in 2004. Do you consider him a preliterate nationalist? Critics on the left and right question the EU's changes to ISDS mechanisms because they do not address the concerns of developing countries and focus instead on intra-bloc trade. Do you consider those critics preliterate nationalists? Critics on the left and right point out that so-called free trade agreements contain non-tariff trade barriers that exploit developing countries. Do you consider them preliterate nationalists? Critics and politicians in non-Western countries argue, convincingly and with facts on their side, that the US and Europe both have historically exploited them and continue to do so, including via structural mechanisms and limitations contained within international organizations. Many of these same people also point out that some conditions imposed in trade and other agreements contain political clauses regarding certain preferred Western concepts - eg, women's rights - that are not at all universal, never have been, and never will be. Do you consider such people preliterate nationalists?
I don't know if you coined the phrase "opiate of the preliterate", or if someone else did, but it means nothing. The nation state remains the primary organizing entity of large-scale political organization and administration around the world, and it serves as the basis of the Westphalian system, which still governs international relations. It is entirely rational for national level politicians to focus on the well-being of the citizens and/or residents of their countries, even if those policies may result in some type of harm, material or immaterial, to other countries. International relations is used to ameliorate imbalances and harms.
Your views, based on what you write, are Eurocentric. That is very common among WEIRD people - ie, people from Western, educated, industrialized, rich and democratic countries. I did not coin that phrase.
I meant, of course, "proletariat" -- definitely not preliterate. Sorry, didn't notice my mistake for a while. (Spell checkers are
only just so helpful.)
Well, Todd, so you've clarified that your definition of "Eurocentric" isn't
just Europe but Western Civilization in general. I don't know your own, particular
provenance but it's clear you have a deep and irrational hatred of Western nations and the USA in particular.
I'm not going to rush to justify free trade which has it's problems, but those problems aren't simply solved by tariffs or trade restrictions but by progressive domestic policies.
I'm not going to rush to justify Western Civilization or the USA either, but their negative effect, (such as it is), on the rest of the world is mostly unfettered capitalism which is only one aspect.
The Western innovations I do believe without equivocation are democracy and rule-of-law. This concludes our discourse.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 17, 2022, 04:01:27 AMI meant, of course, "proletariat" -- definitely not preliterate. Sorry, didn't notice my mistake for a while. (Spell checkers are only just so helpful.)
I suggest writing, pausing, rereading, then posting. Takes about five minutes.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 17, 2022, 04:01:27 AMbut it's clear you have a deep and irrational hatred of Western nations and the USA in particular.
Incorrect.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 17, 2022, 04:01:27 AMI'm not going to rush to justify free trade which has it's problems, but those problems aren't simply solved by tariffs or trade restrictions but by progressive domestic policies.
Whatever you may think "progressive domestic policies" can do to alleviate domestic issues arising from trade, they do nothing to change the purposely and structurally exploitative nature of trade agreements and the associated international enforcement mechanisms. So-called free trade agreements, or the more righteous sounding fair trade agreements, always favor the largest signatories to such agreements the most. By design. I suggest reading works and op-eds written by non-western political leaders and academics.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 17, 2022, 04:01:27 AMI'm not going to rush to justify Western Civilization or the USA either, but their negative effect, (such as it is), on the rest of the world is mostly unfettered capitalism which is only one aspect.
I suggest that the history of and follow-on effects from colonialism, genocide, the international slave trade, wars of aggression, the establishment of and military defense of rapacious extractive industries pursuing mercantilist policies, attempting to and occasionally succeeding at purposely eradicating cultures, and establishing new country boundaries with no heed paid to regional cultural history or with an eye to causing instability have all led to far more measurable harm than so-called "unfettered capitalism". Whatever that is.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 17, 2022, 04:01:27 AMThe Western innovations I do believe without equivocation are democracy and rule-of-law.
They are wonderful institutions. For the West. They should not be imposed upon the rest of the world. That is imperialism fueled by cultural chauvinism and more than occasionally outright racism. It is really rather disgraceful.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 17, 2022, 04:01:27 AMThis concludes our discourse.
GMG last wordism always charms.
Quote from: Todd on December 17, 2022, 05:54:34 AMWhatever you may think "progressive domestic policies" can do to alleviate domestic issues arising from trade, they do nothing to change the purposely and structurally exploitative nature of trade agreements and the associated international enforcement mechanisms. So-called free trade agreements, or the more righteous sounding fair trade agreements, always favor the largest signatories to such agreements the most. By design. I suggest reading works and op-eds written by non-western political leaders and academics.
I suggest that the history of and follow-on effects from colonialism, genocide, the international slave trade, wars of aggression, the establishment of and military defense of rapacious extractive industries pursuing mercantilist policies, attempting to and occasionally succeeding at purposely eradicating cultures, and establishing new country boundaries with no heed paid to regional cultural history or with an eye to causing instability have all led to far more measurable harm than so-called "unfettered capitalism". Whatever that is.
All those things are unfettered capitalism.
Do remember that just because a bunch of EuroAmerican intellectuals invented the term one or two hundred years does not mean the thing signified by that term did not exist before them.
QuoteThey are wonderful institutions. For the West. They should not be imposed upon the rest of the world. That is imperialism fueled by cultural chauvinism and more than occasionally outright racism.
If thinking that all humans are equal and should have equal rights is culturally chauvinist and racist, then we should all try to be cultural chauvinists and racists.
Quote from: JBS on December 17, 2022, 07:03:11 AMAll those things are unfettered capitalism.
Incorrect.
Quote from: JBS on December 17, 2022, 07:03:11 AMDo remember that just because a bunch of EuroAmerican intellectuals invented the term one or two hundred years does not mean the thing signified by that term did not exist before them.
The term and concept of capitalism (and socialism) are both intellectual byproducts of industrialization and the Enlightenment. To be sure, certain traits of both long predate industrialization and the Enlightenment, but history has not changed because posters on GMG want it to.
Quote from: JBS on December 17, 2022, 07:03:11 AMIf thinking that all humans are equal and should have equal rights is culturally chauvinist and racist, then we should all try to be cultural chauvinists and racists.
This perfectly exemplifies cultural chauvinism. If you're going to be a cultural chauvinist, at least embrace it. Good work.
Okay, so the problem is... Ukraine was naughty for trying to be too Western and needs to be punished. Got it.
My main response is... Todd comes across as a typical American who assumes that the particular ways in which his own country is utterly fucked up represent "the West" in general.
Ukraine was not trying to become a vassal state of the USA. Its primary goal was to stop being a vassal state of Russia. There are other options in between. But we've been subjected to this crazy ongoing campaign because of a person projecting his own deep-seated issues. And I'm referring to Todd here, not Putin.
Quote from: Todd on December 16, 2022, 05:14:00 AMIt would also impede Russian sovereignty. It appears impossible for a good number of people to understand that contemporary western political ideas and economic constraints are not as appealing to the entire world as they are to western Europeans. Western ideals are not universal. Public policy is much less so.
You have to disregard a lot of information about migration and refugee patterns, and a lot of information about popular uprisings and revolutions and calls for reforms and crushed dissent to make these sweeping statements about what you're absolutely sure the non-western world absolutely does not want.
This may sound indifferent, but now almost a year into the war I am used to its existence. Mankind isn't smart enough to not have conflicts here and there so we have this war in Europe. It sucks a lot of course, but it is what it is, stupidity of mankind.
Nowadays I am apathetic, even more introverted, tired, bitter and extremely pessimistic about the future (of the whole planet). Instead of having wars and wasting billions of money on military, mankind should be working hard to deal with climate change for a start!
Mankind has completely lost the sense of what meaningful existence means and we are probably doomed because of that. Nowadays thinkers, humanists and other people who have an idea of how we should live our lives are pushed into the marginal while all kind of mentally ill grifters are in the limelights brainwashing people further into madness.
Maybe I am too old (almost 52), but I don't like the World much as it is today. Hence my introvert nature is amplified and all I can do is to practise escapism to the happier times such as the 90's when I was too naive and ignorant to understand how stupid mankind really is and I had tons of optimism for the 21st century. Lack of smart good people is not the problem. The problem is these people don't have enough power to guide and lead as, because good people are not power-hungry. Authoritarian monsters are more likely to do the things that give them power.
So, I try to live as if it was the 90's. I watch Twin Peaks and listen to the electronic music of early 90's. Also self-studies into music theory and making music is therapy. That way I can keep myself sane, but don't ask me to care about what happens in the World today. Back in the day I imagined by the 2020's Russia to have transformed into a democratic western country without aspirations to wage war. Instead we got Covid-19 pandemic, a work-life with requirements so high there is near zero chance I can ever meet them, a war in Europe forcing Finland to join NATO ASAP, energy crises launching crazy inflation and causing energy poverty, possible black-outs (!) and so on... on the flip side Arrowfilms released a boxset of the Ju-On films. Hurrah!, but even if these Japanese J-Horror movies are VERY dear to me, I'd say a boxset of movies can't compensate for the bad, not even close. So, again a miserable year with much more negative than positive. At least I have now finally learned to not hope for anything better for the next year. My optimism was seriously hurt September 11, 2001. The 20's has killed it and it is now buried six feet under. RIP. Pessimism in me on the other hand is stronger than ever!
I live in my internal fantasy World. That's why I don't participate almost at all to the discussion, especially when half of the discussion is about how insane the posts by Todd are. Sorry if this post feels like an introverted monolog, because that's what it is. I wrote this because I feel I need to do it as a form of ventilation.
Wars have bloopers, too: Grenade launcher gifted by Ukraine wounds Polish police chief (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/18/grenade-launcher-gifted-by-ukraine-wounds-polish-police-chief)
Quote from: 71 dB on December 18, 2022, 02:47:47 AMThis may sound indifferent, but now almost a year into the war I am used to its existence. Mankind isn't smart enough to not have conflicts here and there so we have this war in Europe. It sucks a lot of course, but it is what it is, stupidity of mankind.
I live in my internal fantasy World.
This is a completely rational reaction. All best!
Looks like the word rational has now lost all meaning.
Quote from: Todd on December 18, 2022, 12:26:38 PMLooks like the word rational has now lost all meaning.
I invite all to refer to post #4365 from a few days ago, the post which Todd subsequently deleted is quoted there.
Imho, anyone advocating slavery has essentially removed themselves from serious consideration in the context of any adult discussion, especially if opining on possible definitions of the word, " rational ".
I called the way our friend from Finland responds to the current circumstances 'rational', why? If you can't bear the way it is, and you can't change it, it is rational to live in your own world, if this feels better.
It's certainly better than trolling a music group.
Quote from: Herman on December 18, 2022, 11:49:28 AMThis is a completely rational reaction. All best!
Quote from: Herman on December 18, 2022, 06:58:32 PMI called the way our friend from Finland responds to the current circumstances 'rational', why? If you can't bear the way it is, and you can't change it, it is rational to live in your own world, if this feels better.
It's certainly better than trolling a music group.
Thanks for your acceptance and understanding Herman!
Quote from: LKB on December 18, 2022, 06:44:22 PMI invite all to refer to post #4365 from a few days ago, the post which Todd subsequently deleted is quoted there.
I did not delete any post. If it was deleted, the moderators deleted it. My assessment of Ukraine's value and the irrelevance of whether it is free or enslaved from an American security standpoint stands. Ukraine was not independent until 1991. US security and prosperity was not negatively impacted by its status prior to that time.
Quote from: Herman on December 18, 2022, 06:58:32 PMI called the way our friend from Finland responds to the current circumstances 'rational', why? If you can't bear the way it is, and you can't change it, it is rational to live in your own world, if this feels better.
Fantasy is now reality.
Quote from: Todd on July 13, 1970, 01:55:51 AMquote
Quote from: Todd on December 19, 2022, 04:06:26 AMFantasy is now reality.
Rather ironic, that you yourself should provide the most appropriate label for the verbose bs you've been inflicting upon readers here.
As you're manifestly unworthy of any democratic nation, why don't you just go to work for Putin? You'd be able to drop any pretense of rational discourse, and he'd probably compensate you well enough. Hell, he might not even have you killed, once he decided you were no longer needed.
Quote from: LKB on December 19, 2022, 05:08:22 AMAs you're manifestly unworthy of any democratic nation, why don't you just go to work for Putin?
Any variant of the Putin apologist argument, however ornamented, has no meaning.
Also, it might be helpful if you could quote properly.
Residents throw eggs at penis-headed statue of Putin erected in Bell End
https://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/national/23194010.residents-throw-eggs-penis-headed-statue-putin-erected-bell-end/
Quote from: Mandryka on December 19, 2022, 05:27:04 AMResidents throw eggs at penis-headed statue of Putin erected in Bell End
https://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/national/23194010.residents-throw-eggs-penis-headed-statue-putin-erected-bell-end/
Post-modern effigy burning.
Quote from: Mandryka on December 19, 2022, 05:27:04 AMResidents throw eggs at penis-headed statue of Putin erected in Bell End
https://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/national/23194010.residents-throw-eggs-penis-headed-statue-putin-erected-bell-end/
Wow! Residents of Bell End do not hold back!
Quote from: Todd on December 19, 2022, 05:13:58 AMAny variant of the Putin apologist argument, however ornamented, has no meaning.
Also, it might be helpful if you could quote properly.
Did you quote me properly then?
Quote from: 71 dB on December 19, 2022, 03:50:56 AMThanks for your acceptance and understanding Herman!
You'll be OK. Finland is getting F-35s and they will even build part of the planes.
The industrial participation solution will enable the nation to develop credible expertise in the domestic industry from the security of supply perspective and will play an important role in the national economy. The most important industrial participation projects include large-scale production of the F-35 front fuselage in Finland also for other users, production of structural components as well as equipment testing and maintenance capability. Finland was also offered a project of the final assembly of engines for the Finnish Air Force aircraft. Y'see! Finland will be building for other users, not only their own airforce. They aren't just paying, they'll get paid to acquire an enhanced industrial base to sell to other Europeans and beyond the infinite!
OK not infinite but big, especially for a microscopic country.
Quote from: drogulus on December 20, 2022, 08:38:44 AMYou'll be OK. Finland is getting F-35s and they will even build part of the planes.
The industrial participation solution will enable the nation to develop credible expertise in the domestic industry from the security of supply perspective and will play an important role in the national economy. The most important industrial participation projects include large-scale production of the F-35 front fuselage in Finland also for other users, production of structural components as well as equipment testing and maintenance capability. Finland was also offered a project of the final assembly of engines for the Finnish Air Force aircraft.
Y'see! Finland will be building for other users, not only their own airforce. They aren't just paying, they'll get paid to acquire an enhanced industrial base to sell to other Europeans and beyond the infinite!
OK not infinite but big, especially for a microscopic country.
I wonder what source you are quoting. Sounds like a
sales pitch which may turn out rosy compared to the reality. Remains to be seen.
Finland is a small country, not microscopic. Liechtenstein is a microscopic country. Our population is "only" 5.6 million, but Finland's impact in the World is bigger than that and if we compare the area of countries, we see that Finland has
- 40 % bigger area than the UK
- 12 % bigger area than Italy
- 95 % of the area of Germany
- 90 % of the area of Japan
- 67 % of the area of Spain
- 53 % of the area of France
This may come as a surprise to many but Finland is the most successful country in Olympic games history based on the population size and the number of Olympic medals won (101 gold medals won in 25 summer games).
Many people all over the World are using or have used Finnish inventions and products, often without knowing it: Fiskars scissors, Nokia phones, Linux, Angry Birds, Marimekko,.. ...Genelec speakers are widely used in studios everywhere (because they are the best out there).
- The first graphical user interface internet browser was coded in Finland (Erwise, 1992)
- Prof. Teuvo Kohonen developed Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) in the 80's
- The first ever GMS call was made in Helsinki Finland in July 1, 1991.
- IRC chat protocol was created in Finland.
- SMS text messaging was created in Finland.
- heart rate monitor was invented in Finland.
- Reflectors were invented in Finland
- Xylitol was invented in Finland
Princess Leia wears Finnish design on her neck during the end ceremony of Star Wars Episode IV - A New Hope. The necklace named "Planetoid Valleys" is designed by Björn Weckström. George Lucas called Weckström in mid 70's and
insisted having the necklace in the movie.
In the world of classical music Finland has impressively many world class conductors and in the world of metal music Finland is considered the mecca.
As for military Finland has one of the strongest militaries in Europe and one of the biggest artilleries in the World (7 times bigger than Germany for example).
So, excuse me if I'm offended about my country being called microscopic. We Finns are perhaps modest people, but not THAT modest! Finland is a relatively mighty country with a modest population of 5.56 million. Our problem is we are right next to a non-democratic country of almost 150 million people and very strong military that has become openly a terror state that gives the finger to even the well-being of their own citizens.
Quote from: 71 dB on December 20, 2022, 01:46:40 PMAs for military Finland has one of the strongest militaries in Europe and one of the biggest artilleries in the World (7 times bigger than Germany for example).
So, excuse me if I'm offended about my country being called microscopic.
Let's say it punches
waay above its weight, the point of my, er, provocation.
Peace and blessing be upon Finland and its new allies Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney.
When I was a mere lad I dreamed one day of flying on the Connie. I never did.
(https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/eo/photo/historical-programs/constellation/constellation-in-flight.jpg.pc-adaptive.480.high.jpg)
Quote from: 71 dB on December 20, 2022, 01:46:40 PMSo, excuse me if I'm offended about my country being called microscopic.
I agree that that was an entirely inappropriate term.
I didn't get where I am today by being appropriate.
Finnish noir is most excellent.
(https://epguides.com/bordertown_2016/cast.jpg)
Quote from: drogulus on December 20, 2022, 06:41:34 PMFinnish noir is most excellent.
(https://epguides.com/bordertown_2016/cast.jpg)
Interesting to hear you know Finnish noir, but then again Nordic noir in general has been popular in the resent years. I am not a fan of that genre myself. Too cynical and stylistically serious for my liking, but no harm done if you enjoy Finnish noir. ;)
Quote from: drogulus on December 20, 2022, 04:00:46 PMLet's say it punches waay above its weight, the point of my, er, provocation.
Well and let me say that your disparaging comments on Finland and its size etc were typical examples of the Ugly American rearing his head.
Do you perhaps understand that Finland shares a long border with Russia, and as a consequence the Finns do not have the luxury of the American Toddlers (pun intended) to be only indifferent to what's going on in Ukraine.
I'd add to the list of Finland's accomplishments its eductational system which should be the world's model.
Quote from: Herman on December 20, 2022, 11:40:29 PMI'd add to the list of Finland's accomplishments its educational system which should be the world's model.
Senator Bernie Sanders thinks there are a few things the US could learn from Finland, but then again he is a crazy communist who wants to make the US into Venezuela were people eat rats... :D
People can and do justify nationalism and militarism in a variety of ways. Sometimes it is deemed good by some people.
Time's Puppet of the Year is scheduled to speak in person before the US Congress today. Odd that Zelensky did not choose to give a speech in person to the European Parliament. I wonder why that might be. Brussels is much closer to Ukraine than Washington, after all.
Quote from: drogulus on December 20, 2022, 04:00:46 PMWhen I was a mere lad I dreamed one day of flying on the Connie. I never did.
(https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/eo/photo/historical-programs/constellation/constellation-in-flight.jpg.pc-adaptive.480.high.jpg)
I did. I was kid too of course. I can't remember on which trip we took the Lockheed Super Constellation. I don't recalled that the experience was much different than for the Douglas DC-6 we flew in the same era, but the "Connie" was certainly a gorgeous looking airplane.
(https://www.super-hobby.se/zdjecia/7/1/9/2216_rd.jpg)
Quote from: Herman on December 20, 2022, 11:40:29 PMWell and let me say that your disparaging comments on Finland and its size etc were typical examples of the Ugly American rearing his head.
Do you perhaps understand that Finland shares a long border with Russia, and as a consequence the Finns do not have the luxury of the American Toddlers (pun intended) to be only indifferent to what's going on in Ukraine.
I'd add to the list of Finland's accomplishments its eductational system which should be the world's model.
I sing the praises of Finland frequently. I excuse your remark on the grounds that you have no familiarity with my expressed beliefs here. As for 71dB, he's upset about the state of the world and not inclined to appreciate inappropriate humor.
In the past few months I've remarked on the Finnish border with Russia and the point of my "please don't invade" riff is that the denuded Russian defenses in Karelia mean that Finland actually could. Further, one should be able to see that if Russia was defended by Finnish membership in NATO, that threat would be removed. Finland would have (heh!) surrendered its sovereignty to wage war and recapture territory now occupied by Russia. Needless to say, so I'll say it, that is a good thing for all concerned, and giving up the right to settle old territorial scores is fundamental to the nature of the alliance.
I do claim membership in the American Uglies in some respects. The appeal of "soccer" is microscopic to me.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 21, 2022, 05:41:53 AMI did. I was kid too of course. I can't remember on which trip we took the Lockheed Super Constellation. I don't recalled that the experience was much different than for the Douglas DC-6 we flew in the same era, but the "Connie" was certainly a gorgeous looking airplane.
(https://www.super-hobby.se/zdjecia/7/1/9/2216_rd.jpg)
The Boeing 707 changed the world back then.
Finland is not buying the Swedish fighter. Now we know it's not just a matter of buying a superior plane. The technological and economic advances are important factors.
Wow.... In Putin's rethoric, Ukraine just went from "fake nation" to "brotherly nation"...
Ukraine war: Russia not to blame for conflict - Putin (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64055018) (BBC)
It smells like desperation... I guess Putin has finally realised that: 1) he cannot win this war and 2) loosing this war will be be his end.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 07:48:13 AMIt smells like desperation... I guess Putin has finally realised that: 1) he cannot win this war and 2) loosing this war will be be his end.
It could be those things, or it could be Putin adopting a different tone as a precursor to negotiations. He did just negotiate the release of an American, so it's a thing now.
Since Ukraine is warning of another large-scale Russian military operation, triumphalism should be avoided. Such thinking has been wrong the entire war thus far. And all the while, Ukrainians die.
Quote from: Todd on December 21, 2022, 08:16:35 AMIt could be those things, or it could be Putin adopting a different tone as a precursor to negotiations. He did just negotiate the release of an American, so it's a thing now.
Yes, for the 1st time since this war started I think Putin is moving towards
the possibility of a negotiated settlement. But only because he is loosing, or at least has no prospect anymore of winning... Thanks to Joe Biden and Vladimir Zelensky, and the endurance of the Ukrainians.
QuoteSince Ukraine is warning of another large-scale Russian military operation, triumphalism should be avoided. Such thinking has been wrong the entire war thus far. And all the while, Ukrainians die.
Triumphalism should be indeed be avoided, even if I think the Ukrainians have some tricks up their sleeve before Putin is "ready" for a renewed assault.
Ukrainians die, and so do Russians. But this war cannot end until the future of the Ukrainian nation and enduring peace in Europe is secured.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 09:19:50 AMYes, for the 1st time since this war started I think Putin is moving towards the possibility of a negotiated settlement.
This is historically false. Multiple rounds of talks have occurred. In April, serious negotiations were underway. They were scuttled. Some say the West did it; some say Russia did it.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 09:19:50 AMBut only because he is loosing, or at least has no prospect anymore of winning... Thanks to Joe Biden and Vladimir Zelensky, and the endurance of the Ukrainians.
Winning and losing have never been defined. Part of a bold Ukrainian ask is to return to pre-2014 borders. That is a very low probability outcome. It is an opening bid, of course.
It is indeed true that the American war machine, underwritten by US taxpayers, has propped up a regime that would have lost months ago. As a direct result, many civilians have needlessly died.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 09:19:50 AMTriumphalism should be indeed be avoided, even if I think the Ukrainians have some tricks up their sleeve before Putin is "ready" for a renewed assault.
This is wishful thinking. It should also be avoided. It has appeared many, many times in this thread.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 09:19:50 AMUkrainians die, and so do Russians. But this war cannot end until the future of the Ukrainian nation and enduring peace in Europe is secured.
A material difference between the deaths on the two sides is that many Ukrainian civilians have died. People who support keeping the war going actively support policies that lead to the deaths of innocent civilians. That is immoral.
As to Europe being secure, NATO members are protected by the US. European countries have thus far offered tough rhetoric, but that is all. European leaders wish to maintain their dependence on the US. It is disgraceful.
Also, given Europe's dependence on the US not only for military security, and financial safeguards (eg, central bank guarantees go only one way in practice), but also increasingly for energy, it may be a little premature to say that Europe will end up better off and more secure at the end of this war than before it. Europe will be even more dependent on the US, and since any transition to renewable energy is at least three to four decades out, and even then certain forms of fossil fuels will still be required, Europe is exposing itself to increased coercion by the US. It will be friendlier arm twisting than what the Russians offer, but it will benefit the US even more. Not all US politicians hold Europe in very high regard, and some of them will ascend to positions of national power this decade or next.
It will be instructive to see how Germans respond to the outcome of the war. This year has seen significant reported declines in all industrial sectors. Proclamations of German deindustrialization are a bit florid, but they do point to larger issues for Germany. So far, Germans have displayed enormous patience, but if their relative well-being declines, there may be increased calls for certain forms of industrial policy at best, and aggressive mercantilism at worst. If either occurs, it would be entirely understandable and even justifiable.
Quote from: Todd on December 21, 2022, 10:02:53 AMThis is historically false. Multiple rounds of talks have occurred. In April, serious negotiations were underway. They were scuttled. Some say the West did it; some say Russia did it.
Fake news. Putin wasn't seriously considering negotiations ever before, he simply had no reason to do so.
QuoteWinning and losing have never been defined.
Putin himself has defined, and redefined, "winning" many times over.
QuoteThis is wishful thinking. It should also be avoided. It has appeared many, many times in this thread.
Sofar believing in the importance, and the ability, of Ukraine to defend itself and of western democracies to unite in its support has proven to be justified. Writing off Ukraine has not.
QuoteA material difference between the deaths on the two sides is that many Ukrainian civilians have died. People who support keeping the war going actively support policies that lead to the deaths of innocent civilians. That is immoral.
Another material difference is that Ukrainians are defending their country. People who defend their country do not choose to die, they choose to defend their country. Supporting them in exercising their right of self defense is not immoral. The regime that has made the immoral choice to send tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians to their deaths, is Putin's.
QuoteEuropean countries have thus far offered tough rhetoric, but that is all.
Factually incorrect.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 10:47:54 AMFake news. Putin wasn't seriously considering negotiations ever before, he simply had no reason to do so.
This is incorrect.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 10:47:54 AMPutin himself has defined, and redefined, "winning" many times over.
I am more interested in the West's definition of winning. That can then help establish a baseline for negotiations.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 10:47:54 AMSofar believing in the importance, and the ability, of Ukraine to defend itself and of western democracies to unite in its support has proven to be justified.
It has not.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 10:47:54 AMSupporting them in exercising their right of self defense is not immoral.
It is. It is essential to remember that NATO expansion established the conditions for Russian aggression. Claims that the West has no culpability in this calamity are false. To then continue to send weapons and aid to prolong a war that has cost thousands of civilian lives, all without actively pursuing a diplomatic settlement at the same time, is intrinsically immoral.
Quote from: Que on December 21, 2022, 10:47:54 AMFactually incorrect.
It is correct. For instance, Germany surprised many people when it announced it would spend $100 billion on defense, garnering many headlines, but first it was part of a previously announced plan, rendering the promise an exercise in cynicism and opportunism, and second, the German government has begun to temper its prior claims. Other governments have made promises to up defense expenditures to meet 2% of targets, but it is not clear it will happen (I expect fewer than half of the countries that have pledged to do so actually will). European governments have sent many weapons systems, though not always what was requested, and not in a coordinated manner. US military and financial support dwarfs all others. Given that this war is supposedly an existential threat to Europe, Europeans should be funneling hundreds of billions in aid, should be taking the lead in pushing for negotiations, and should be taking the lead in forming a multi-trillion Euro reconstruction plan right now. You previously cited the Wikipedia page on the topic of aid in this war, yet you did not include the assessment by the Kiel Institute, which serves as the basis for that page, that Europe is significantly underperforming in this regard. European states should be doing everything short of full mobilization to resolve this crisis if it is actually as serious as you assert.
Sayeth Time's Puppet of the Year: Your money is not charity, it's an investment in global security (https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/12/22/ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelensky-addresses-us-congress_6008649_4.html)
One corrupt man's "investment in global security" is another man's continued expansion of the military-industrial complex.
Maybe the puppet can swing by Brussels on his way home. You know, hit the real power center in this whole mess.
It was nice of Zelensky to quote Phil Collins. Classy.
Get That Money Zelenskyy!
(https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/get-that-money-zelenskyy/)
Quote from: Todd on December 22, 2022, 06:00:48 AMSayeth Time's Puppet of the Year: Your money is not charity, it's an investment in global security (https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/12/22/ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelensky-addresses-us-congress_6008649_4.html)
One corrupt man's "investment in global security" is another man's continued expansion of the military-industrial complex.
Maybe the puppet can swing by Brussels on his way home. You know, hit the real power center in this whole mess.
It was nice of Zelensky to quote Phil Collins. Classy.
Having advocated Ukraine's enslavement, l should think few here will continue to assign much weight to anything you care to post.
Just as Zelenskyy will undoubtedly continue to do as he should for his country, hopefully our government will see that our support continues unabated.
Quote from: LKB on December 22, 2022, 06:32:07 AMHaving advocated Ukraine's enslavement, l should think few here will continue to assign much weight to anything you care to post.
You care enough to respond.
Note that I don't advocate for Ukraine's enslavement. I am indifferent to it. There is a difference.
You posted:
" Meh. Churchill said something along those lines. Late middle age and elderly posters cowering behind their keyboards carry no weight. Ukraine ain't worth shit. It's OK if Ukraine is in enslaved. "
https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/index.php?msg=1486006
Doesn't look like " indifference " to me.
Same trolling, different day.
Quote from: LKB on December 22, 2022, 07:03:51 AMDoesn't look like " indifference " to me.
It is.
And you continue to care enough to respond.
Quote from: drogulus on December 21, 2022, 07:13:50 AMI sing the praises of Finland frequently. I excuse your remark on the grounds that you have no familiarity with my expressed beliefs here. As for 71dB, he's upset about the state of the world and not inclined to appreciate inappropriate humor.
Sorry, if my sense of humour is in a bad shape. 2022 was an awful year and 2020-21 weren't good either thanks to a damn virus! We all needed a good year, but we didn't get it. We got this mess of a year.
Quote from: drogulus on December 21, 2022, 07:13:50 AMThe appeal of "soccer" is microscopic to me.
Same here, because I am not big on sports in general and as a soccer nation Finland indeed is microscopic. Ice-hockey attracts most physically talented individuals in Finland.
I used to watch soccer with my dad in my childhood and I was a fan of the team Brazil, but later realized the type of entertainment that works best for me is different.
Quote from: drogulus on December 21, 2022, 07:39:23 AMFinland is not buying the Swedish fighter. Now we know it's not just a matter of buying a superior plane. The technological and economic advances are important factors.
The F-35 deal offered to Finland was too good to pass.
The
Admiral Kuznetsov, notorious piece of shit Russian carrier, has caught fire again. Maybe it will be useful if the Spanish Armada attacks.
Quote from: 71 dB on December 22, 2022, 07:52:25 AMThe F-35 deal offered to Finland was too good to pass.
It can see into Russia without being seen. Much as I love the Gripen, it's your basic multirole fighter. It's like the difference between a PC and the internet, the "thing that gets you to the thing".
One should learn a hard truth, that much of history is driven by technology, and much of tech is driven by the military. Russia and China will continue to wither because of this. Russia can only build new smart missiles as long as there are enough dishwashers and microwave ovens to source the larval chips they contain. China can't make a chip anyone would use in a $600 laptop from Best Buy to play games or transcode a movie like I do all the time.
Quote from: LKB on December 22, 2022, 06:32:07 AMHaving advocated Ukraine's enslavement, l should think few here will continue to assign much weight to anything you care to post.
Ah, but it's all priceless for students of newspeak, where:
negotiation = capitulation
threat = self defense
puppet = freedom fighter
power center = mire of rot and corruption
Just stop feeding the troll, gentlemen, once and for all, for God's sake!
Quote from: BasilValentine on December 22, 2022, 01:16:00 PMpuppet = freedom fighter
The standard quip is "One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter." I guess it's ripe for a change for some people.
Quote from: Florestan on December 22, 2022, 01:20:55 PMJust stop feeding the troll, gentlemen, once and for all, for God's sake!
I continue to think the argument is worth having. Well, more than that: we need it. Maybe it's just the style that's objected to: fine. But there is hardly anyone else making an argument and the the pro-war camp needs testing now more than ever. Even the emotional content has taught me something and I'm not just talking about Todd but one or two others here who insist on ad hominem-s in their posts. But it seems valid to define and question and reevaluate the aims and costs of this conflict. I would have hated to see the Ukraine beaten in the first month as Russia planned and I wonder if the whole thing could have been prevented if policies on both sides had just been different to begin with (I mean the U.S. side as well)? I think we should keep debating the goal of this and (Americans should keep in play) how American foreign policy is going to be redefined in the future. There's a reasonable difference of opinion here about what American policy should be and about what the goal of this thing is. America and Europe own this no matter what happens and the U.S. doesn't have a stellar history when it comes to underwriting conflicts around the world. I'm not necessarily for or against the U.S. supporting this but I do feel like there's too much media taking a particular side. I tend to think that all parties have to be ready to accept less than what they want. I would hope that progressives would be asking a lot of questions about any war machine of the U.S.
Quote from: milk on December 22, 2022, 08:38:36 PMI continue to think the argument is worth having. Well, more than that: we need it. Maybe it's just the style that's objected to: fine. But there is hardly anyone else making an argument and the the pro-war camp needs testing now more than ever. Even the emotional content has taught me something and I'm not just talking about Todd but one or two others here who insist on ad hominem-s in their posts. But it seems valid to define and question and reevaluate the aims and costs of this conflict. I would have hated to see the Ukraine beaten in the first month as Russia planned and I wonder if the whole thing could have been prevented if policies on both sides had just been different to begin with (I mean the U.S. side as well)? I think we should keep debating the goal of this and (Americans should keep in play) how American foreign policy is going to be redefined in the future. There's a reasonable difference of opinion here about what American policy should be and about what the goal of this thing is. America and Europe own this no matter what happens and the U.S. doesn't have a stellar history when it comes to underwriting conflicts around the world. I'm not necessarily for or against the U.S. supporting this but I do feel like there's too much media taking a particular side. I tend to think that all parties have to be ready to accept less than what they want. I would hope that progressives would be asking a lot of questions about any war machine of the U.S.
If you wish to mount the argument, feel free.
But if you dislike ad hominems I suggest you take a closer look at the way Todd talks about other members of the forum.
Quote from: milk on December 22, 2022, 08:38:36 PMI continue to think the argument is worth having. Well, more than that: we need it. Maybe it's just the style that's objected to: fine. But there is hardly anyone else making an argument and the the pro-war camp needs testing now more than ever. Even the emotional content has taught me something and I'm not just talking about Todd but one or two others here who insist on ad hominem-s in their posts. But it seems valid to define and question and reevaluate the aims and costs of this conflict. I would have hated to see the Ukraine beaten in the first month as Russia planned and I wonder if the whole thing could have been prevented if policies on both sides had just been different to begin with (I mean the U.S. side as well)? I think we should keep debating the goal of this and (Americans should keep in play) how American foreign policy is going to be redefined in the future. There's a reasonable difference of opinion here about what American policy should be and about what the goal of this thing is. America and Europe own this no matter what happens and the U.S. doesn't have a stellar history when it comes to underwriting conflicts around the world. I'm not necessarily for or against the U.S. supporting this but I do feel like there's too much media taking a particular side. I tend to think that all parties have to be ready to accept less than what they want. I would hope that progressives would be asking a lot of questions about any war machine of the U.S.
It seems in a degree that you and Todd have this in common: you both over emphasize the role of the USA in regard to the Ukraine conflict.
Fear on account of the Russian invasion is felt by all eastern European countries, especially those previously in or controlled by the Soviet Union.
Why do you think they flocked to joint NATO in the first place? It wasn't to placate the USA but on account of the historic imperialist ambitions of Tsarist Russia, the Soviet Union, and Russian Federation under Putin as now manifest.
Sure, the USA is the most powerful member of NATO and (accordingly) its largest financial and military contributor. Hence as a NATO member USA is doing little more than proportionally fulfilling its NATO obligations.
The proposal that the Russia is only defending itself and its "brother" Ukraine against American and NATO aggressions is a lot of
malicious, stupid guff. The "threat" to Russia exists only in the perverted reasoning of Putin and his lackeys and dupes.
Quote from: milk on December 22, 2022, 08:38:36 PMThere's a reasonable difference of opinion here about what American policy should be and about what the goal of this thing is. America and Europe own this no matter what happens and the U.S. doesn't have a stellar history when it comes to underwriting conflicts around the world.
There are no unowned wars. The primary owners are Russia as aggressor and Ukraine defending itself. The US is trying to keep NATO on the Ukraine side while displaying strong indicators of flexibility by moving the center of gravity east. As Germany flounders Poland rises. NATO evolves or it loses functionality, and that could happen in the actual no-shit world and not just in the minds of TrumPutinists and assorted cranks. I find it more likely that the alliance morphs in the direction of its more dedicated members than gives up because some of the legacy tentpoles lose their way, or their economic pizazz.
Here's a thing. Maritime superpowers fight border wars along fault lines between blocs. They often lose, but it's often the case that no one else could even mount the effort. The US fought in Vietnam and Kissenger won the war in China while losing in Saigon. Then the Vietnamese kicked Chinese ass in 1979 and now are friends with the Americans.
I judge that the problem of managing the decline of of the 2 most furious defector states involves some pretty fancy footwork. The US will be the only quasi-autarkic economic bloc. N. America is "belong to us". The US, Canada and Mexico have food and energy, and the bloc economy is internally driven.
The goal in Ukraine is not to confine the damage to Ukraine so much as prevent the war from spreading into NATOland. Just because we don't want NATO countries to be destroyed doesn't mean we chose Ukraine instead. That's a shallow "one mans" reading. Even many people who suspect US motives have trouble with it. The world can't be robbed of agency to that degree even if the secret US plot to rule the world was as credible as the actual world plot to have the US rule it.
(https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif) I got my classic smilies back!!!
Quote from: milk on December 22, 2022, 08:38:36 PMcontinue to think the argument is worth having. Well, more than that: we need it. Maybe it's just the style that's objected to: fine.
If you think that a goodwill, meaningful, rational and reasonable argument can be had with someone whose style of argumentation consists of (1) repetitive, snide one-liners, (2) provocative formulations calculated to trigger the ire of the opponent, and (3) "Incorrect.", be my guest. In my book it's called feeding the troll.
Quote from: Florestan on December 23, 2022, 10:33:17 AMIf you think that a goodwill, meaningful, rational and reasonable argument can be had with someone whose style of argumentation consists of (1) repetitive, snide one-liners, (2) provocative formulations calculated to trigger the ire of the opponent, and (3) "Incorrect.", be my guest. In my book it's called feeding the troll.
I recommend the ignore list for that kind of posters. Then one isn't tempted to feed the troll.
Quote from: premont on December 23, 2022, 11:24:31 AMI recommend the ignore list for that kind of posters.
Doesn't work for me. I personally think the best way to deal with that kind of posters* is to put them on a read-only mode. I mean, read their posts, get angry, don't reply.
* Actually, I am not aware of any other poster of this kind save Todd.
Quote from: premont on December 23, 2022, 11:24:31 AMI recommend the ignore list for that kind of posters. Then one isn't tempted to feed the troll.
One of the benefits of the new forum design is that, somehow, scrolling past ignored posts is smoother and easier than before.
Quote from: Florestan on December 23, 2022, 11:39:38 AMDoesn't work for me. I personally think the best way to deal with that kind of posters* is to put them on a read-only mode. I mean, read their posts, get angry, don't reply.
Doesn't work for me. If I can avoid it, I don't want to get angry.
Quote from: Florestan* Actually, I am not aware of any other poster of this kind save Todd.
Nor do I, so there is only one poster on my ignore list.
I'm happy to read the different takes on this war since I know very little about its context. My assumption is that the Ukraine would not have had much hope without U.S. support. I may be wrong. I've never studied the history of these areas in question and I don't know much about military planning.
My gut reaction at the beginning was to hope for Putin and Russia's failure. It's a very complicated situation to say the least. I read what people say and I still don't hope to have a completely informed opinion about it all.
Quote from: Florestan on December 23, 2022, 10:33:17 AMIf you think that a goodwill, meaningful, rational and reasonable argument can be had with someone whose style of argumentation consists of (1) repetitive, snide one-liners, (2) provocative formulations calculated to trigger the ire of the opponent, and (3) "Incorrect.", be my guest. In my book it's called feeding the troll.
I get what you're saying. However, he does present well-supported arguments. I'm sorry to say that people here haven't convinced me they're up to his level in presenting other sides. That's not intended as an insult to anyone and it doesn't at all convince me he's right. It makes me want to read/listened somewhere else to other opinions.
I'll be completely honest and lay my cards on the table. I'm as emotional or more emotional than anyone here. It's probably gotten me into trouble many times in my life. But I've tried to work on this and maybe it's just my own way of seeing things that leads me to view this thread in this way. I work from my own context, obviously. I just try check myself when I see my own emotional reactions. Yes, Todd is insulting, and not just in the political threads. Maybe it's possible to laugh at it instead of being triggered and insulted? I'm not accusing any one person of being over-emotional but I do think people generally spend too much energy on that and not the other thing. It's just my one small opinion. I've been insulted by a few people in this thread. I think they're petty jerks. But it's funny to get so triggered. And as for Todd, it's just my opinion that he's got the best of folks around here. My two cents: make better arguments. Why does nobody try just completely ignoring his insults and just countering his arguments one by one. Why focus on the emotion?
Quote from: milk on December 23, 2022, 09:06:41 PMit's just my opinion that he's got the best of folks around here. My two cents: make better arguments.
Alternatively: don't even try. It's feeding the troll.
You say he presents well-supported arguments??
Mostly he doesn't present an argument. He forwards links and adds one smart-arse comment.
When I was bothering to read some a few months ago, a number of the articles were actually pretty bad sources.
News from the battlefield:
The Russian Svatove-Kreminna frontline in the northeastern region of Luhansk could soon collapse. The occupational administration in Svatove has been evacuated to Luhansk ciy.
Meanwhile Russian forces are heavily fortifying the southern city of Melitopol, apparently in anticipation of an Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Quote from: milk on December 23, 2022, 09:06:41 PMhe does present well-supported arguments.
Very rarely. Most of the time he fulminates against the imperialism and militarism of the USA, NATO and the West in general while justifying, and approving of, Russian imperialism and militarism.
QuoteYes, Todd is insulting, and not just in the political threads. Maybe it's possible to laugh at it instead of being triggered and insulted? .. Why does nobody try just completely ignoring his insults and just countering his arguments one by one.
Arguing with someone who constantly insults and mocks his opponents is a complete waste of one's time.
Quote from: Madiel on December 23, 2022, 11:49:17 AMOne of the benefits of the new forum design is that, somehow, scrolling past ignored posts is smoother and easier than before.
Yes, but the posts are still there--they are just covered until one chooses to reveal them. I prefer the method that some other sites offer: the posts aren't visible at all.
Quote from: Bachtoven on December 25, 2022, 11:58:47 AMYes, but the posts are still there--they are just covered until one chooses to reveal them. I prefer the method that some other sites offer: the posts aren't visible at all.
Meh. I'm content with the method where I can occasionally pretend that Todd exists, just like Putin can occasionally pretend that there's a war and Ukraine is a real country.
Quote from: Que on December 24, 2022, 01:35:48 AMNews from the battlefield:
The Russian Svatove-Kreminna frontline in the northeastern region of Luhansk could soon collapse. The occupational administration in Svatove has been evacuated to Luhansk ciy.
Meanwhile Russian forces are heavily fortifying the southern city of Melitopol, apparently in anticipation of an Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Don't troll me with substance.
(https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/angry.gif) It certainly looks like the Ukes want to cut the Russian front in half and put a bullseye on Crimea. Russia can't defend the whole line.
Quote from: premont on December 23, 2022, 05:01:31 PMDoesn't work for me. If I can avoid it, I don't want to get angry.
Exactly. So I don't read his posts and, should a friend quote one of his posts, I just scroll on. His blather simply does not merit my time or attention.
Quote from: Florestan on December 24, 2022, 03:36:48 AMVery rarely. Most of the time he fulminates against the imperialism and militarism of the USA, NATO and the West in general while justifying, and approving of, Russian imperialism and militarism.
Arguing with someone who constantly insults and mocks his opponents is a complete waste of one's time.
I wouldn't argue with him. Extract the argument. My disagreement is with people saying he ONLY insults. He presents very informed arguments that have got me thinking. I'm observing Todd is well-read in history and in economics. This isn't to say he's faultless (he didn't stick around to defend Trump after the January 6th fiasco, for example). But I wonder if part of the reason that people are so triggered by, and focused on, the insults is that they don't have the comprehensive knowledge to counter all his arguments. Those that say he doesn't have any real knowledge at all don't seem to be living in the same reality as me and, I think, ultimately show themselves to be weak.
I live in Japan. The policies of all the Asian countries rely on the U.S. being what it is and we could be very much on a trajectory towards a world war or annihilation. At the very least I want to consider many views. I'd forgotten that Todd's views used to be the ones of the left. I just lost touch because the left became kind of loonie in my eyes. But the mainstream right and left in global policy were always suspicious to us when we were students. It doesn't hurt to remember to question these views.
Personally I still feel worried about a country like Russia being a bully but I don't think anyone has refuted Todd about the U.S.'s steps before this all happened. Everything the U.S. does matters in terms of life and death on this globe. Yes, Taiwanese people matter to me as do Hong Kong people. It sickened me to see HK people lose their freedom not least because I met some of those students. I don't want to see Taiwanese people lose their freedom. It's Their choice to declare their freedoms.
But...
The question is about what sacrifices we are willing to make and why are we willing to make them and what the costs of war are. Again, I would forget the insults and just keep arguing this stuff in good faith. There's no need to really care about someone's purported bad faith.
I've been working on this in my self. I did in 2022. If I'm reacting emotionally, that's really on me. I don't really need anything from anyone on the internet, now do I?
Nothing deterred Putin in Chechnya, Syria, Georgia or Ukraine. I sense a theme here.
Enough slack has been cut IMV. The notion that the West has provoked Russia can only be rendered sensible if you factor in that aggressors have no respect for weakness. In that sense, yes, of course Putin was provoked.
Putin overestimated the extent of the fecklessness and self-sabotage he has cultivated. The TrumPutinists seem to have lost their mojo. Maybe they get it back, do you think? I don't see it yet.
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 04:00:46 PMI wouldn't argue with him. Extract the argument. My disagreement is with people saying he ONLY insults. He presents very informed arguments that have got me thinking. I'm observing Todd is well-read in history and in economics. This isn't to say he's faultless (he didn't stick around to defend Trump after the January 6th fiasco, for example). But I wonder if part of the reason that people are so triggered by, and focused on, the insults is that they don't have the comprehensive knowledge to counter all his arguments. Those that say he doesn't have any real knowledge at all don't seem to be living in the same reality as me and, I think, ultimately show themselves to be weak.
I live in Japan. The policies of all the Asian countries rely on the U.S. being what it is and we could be very much on a trajectory towards a world war or annihilation. At the very least I want to consider many views. I'd forgotten that Todd's views used to be the ones of the left. I just lost touch because the left became kind of loonie in my eyes. But the mainstream right and left in global policy were always suspicious to us when we were students. It doesn't hurt to remember to question these views.
Personally I still feel worried about a country like Russia being a bully but I don't think anyone has refuted Todd about the U.S.'s steps before this all happened. Everything the U.S. does matters in terms of life and death on this globe. Yes, Taiwanese people matter to me as do Hong Kong people. It sickened me to see HK people lose their freedom not least because I met some of those students. I don't want to see Taiwanese people lose their freedom. It's Their choice to declare their freedoms.
But...
The question is about what sacrifices we are willing to make and why are we willing to make them and what the costs of war are. Again, I would forget the insults and just keep arguing this stuff in good faith. There's no need to really care about someone's purported bad faith.
I've been working on this in my self. I did in 2022. If I'm reacting emotionally, that's really on me. I don't really need anything from anyone on the internet, now do I?
Perhaps in Japan you're missing out on all the RW messaging--which Todd paraphrases in pseudointellectual terms and a veneer of self righteous superiority.
Put it succinctly, there's very little Todd says that has not been said by Tucker Carlson. But at least Todd doesn't channel the xenophobia and white supremacy that Tucker includes.
There's always been an isolationist element in the US Right, although it was a much weaker element between WW2 and the advent of Trump. Thanks to Trump it's now in control of the GOP and the Right's media outlets.
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 04:00:46 PMbut I don't think anyone has refuted Todd about the U.S.'s steps before this all happened
And what steps are those?
Putin keeps blaming the US and "the West" for the removal of Ukraine's pro-Russian President Yanukovych in 2014. Do you agree with that? On what grounds? While I'm far from well-versed in the entire history of Ukrainian politics from the country's independence, as far as I'm aware it was internal Ukrainian forces that led to that outcome. Much of the country wanted to join the EU. There was supposed to be an EU association agreement, and then unexpectedly Yanukovych rejected it. Protests ensued.
So what role did the US play in any of that? I'm not particularly aware of any trend of the US encouraging countries to join the EU.
I mean, Putin (and other Russians) also blame "the West" in the 19th century for inventing Ukrainian national identity in the first place. It was those damn Austrians, long before the US was a superpower.
Though it should be noted that Putin never mentions how the "Rus" in Kyiv centuries ago, from where Russia took its name, was actually a Viking kingdom. It seems his critique of how national identities gets formed only goes so far. Presumably the United States is off the hook for meddling in south-eastern Europe in the days before Columbus.
Quote from: drogulus on December 25, 2022, 04:13:03 PMNothing deterred Putin in Chechnya, Syria, Georgia or Ukraine. I sense a theme here.
Enough slack has been cut IMV. The notion that the West has provoked Russia can only be rendered sensible if you factor in that aggressors have no respect for weakness. In that sense, yes, of course Putin was provoked.
Putin overestimated the extent of the fecklessness and self-sabotage he has cultivated. The TrumPutinists seem to have lost their mojo. Maybe they get it back, do you think? I don't see it yet.
I see your point but I'd like you to say more on this and press Todd more on this very point. There's an assumption here and a specific disagreement here about facts as well. Who's right? That doesn't need to be emotional.
Quote from: JBS on December 25, 2022, 04:23:07 PMPerhaps in Japan you're missing out on all the RW messaging--which Todd paraphrases in pseudointellectual terms and a veneer of self righteous superiority.
Put it succinctly, there's very little Todd says that has not been said by Tucker Carlson. But at least Todd doesn't channel the xenophobia and white supremacy that Tucker includes.
There's always been an isolationist element in the US Right, although it was a much weaker element between WW2 and the advent of Trump. Thanks to Trump it's now in control of the GOP and the Right's media outlets.
I just can't see how any of that is relevant. Maybe you could try to succinctly say how this is relevant to the questions of past, present and future U.S. policies. I'll repeat again that my inclination was toward supporting Ukraine and is towards supporting Taiwan and U.S. alliances around the world for counterbalancing China. But Todd makes interesting and reasonable counter arguments. What's going to produce peace? Peace, Love and Understanding, as it were?
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 06:14:11 PMI see your point but I'd like you to say more on this and press Todd more on this very point.
*You* press Todd on it.
*You* spend a dozen or two dozen posts trying to get a straight sincere reply instead of sarcasm and delibeeate provocation.
Then see if you like it when we tell you not to get so emotional.
Quote from: drogulus on December 25, 2022, 04:13:03 PMNothing deterred Putin in Chechnya, Syria, Georgia or Ukraine. I sense a theme here.
It's a bit of a "what about," but I KNOW what my super leftie friends, would say about what deters America from its wars. I've a Japanese friend who once told me angrily that "America killed more people in war than anyone!" I had to laugh at this. What else could I do? This doesn't mean Todd is right though. It's just to say there is something to consider about all this. Is it only the right that should be asking about America's interests in such far flung places, especially after ending a long conflict in Afghanistan with very questionable results?
Quote from: SimonNZ on December 25, 2022, 06:30:08 PM*You* press Todd on it.
*You* spend a dozen or two dozen posts trying to get a straight sincere reply instead of sarcasm and delibeeate provocation.
Then see if you like it when we tell you not to get so emotional.
I see what you mean. Maybe it's the points that need pressing then. Be cold.
@milk quit inserting yourself as some kind of umpire.
If you observe a "disagreement about facts", it's not our job to research it for you. You can do your own research and reach some conclusions about who is using reliable sources. There are of course some things on which reasonable minds might differ. More often opinions rather than facts, but sometimes facts are hard to ascertain for certain.
But then there are the cases where so-called alternative facts are not at all factual.
What we do NOT need, though, is you repeatedly popping up to not actually contribute to the discussion and instead just telling other people they aren't discussing properly. It's incredibly irritating. Not least because you keep giving a free pass to the one person who is actually wrecking the discussion. Maybe you have some misguided sense of "balance", but that idea is exactly what allows some of the most pernicious and toxic ideas in political discourse to survive.
No-one is obliged to keep explaining how the Earth is round or how man-made climate change is real or Joe Biden was elected President or how Russia invaded a sovereign country just because there's one jerk in the room who insists on debating these points. And half the time you don't even properly identify what points you think Todd has made, you just assert their existence. Spell it out, or get out.
Quote from: Madiel on December 25, 2022, 05:25:13 PMAnd what steps are those?
Putin keeps blaming the US and "the West" for the removal of Ukraine's pro-Russian President Yanukovych in 2014. Do you agree with that? On what grounds? While I'm far from well-versed in the entire history of Ukrainian politics from the country's independence, as far as I'm aware it was internal Ukrainian forces that led to that outcome. Much of the country wanted to join the EU. There was supposed to be an EU association agreement, and then unexpectedly Yanukovych rejected it. Protests ensued.
So what role did the US play in any of that? I'm not particularly aware of any trend of the US encouraging countries to join the EU.
I mean, Putin (and other Russians) also blame "the West" in the 19th century for inventing Ukrainian national identity in the first place. It was those damn Austrians, long before the US was a superpower.
Though it should be noted that Putin never mentions how the "Rus" in Kyiv centuries ago, from where Russia took its name, was actually a Viking kingdom. It seems his critique of how national identities gets formed only goes so far. Presumably the United States is off the hook for meddling in south-eastern Europe in the days before Columbus.
@milk feel free to start by actually replying to this.
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 06:14:11 PMI see your point but I'd like you to say more on this and press Todd more on this very point. There's an assumption here and a specific disagreement here about facts as well. Who's right? That doesn't need to be emotional. I just can't see how any of that is relevant. Maybe you could try to succinctly say how this is relevant to the questions of past, present and future U.S. policies. I'll repeat again that my inclination was toward supporting Ukraine and is towards supporting Taiwan and U.S. alliances around the world for counterbalancing China. But Todd makes interesting and reasonable counter arguments. What's going to produce peace? Peace, Love and Understanding, as it were?
What I am trying to say is that Todd's arguments generally don't seem reasonable or interesting to me; they merely repeat the neo-isolationist talking points I hear from Trumpniks.
Quote from: JBS on December 25, 2022, 08:09:57 PMWhat I am trying to say is that Todd's arguments generally don't seem reasonable or interesting to me; they merely repeat the neo-isolationist talking points I hear from Trumpniks.
but you're just characterizing his points. You're not actually saying anything. He is. I'm sure you have made more substantive points here so I'm not saying you never say anything worthwhile. I just think we're off point at the moment. I have to do some work myself to go back through what I think his arguments boil down to and where the main differences are. From what I see, there's a real and serious debate here that gets sidetracked. Not only are people saying that Todd is a jerk, they're saying his arguments are laughable. However, in my opinion they don't do a good job at all of expressing an understanding of his arguments and refuting them. I mostly see a lot of outrage and dismissiveness.
I do notice that Todd can't be enlisted into seriously steel-manning his opposition. But then again, it seems ridiculous that no one here seems to think Todd isn't making a serious case. That's got it be corrected. If American foreign policy is going to continue this way, and if it's going to be there in opposition to China, then the case has got to be made. You can't very well just laugh at those who see an alternative. It's a scary world.
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 10:05:41 PMHowever, in my opinion they don't do a good job at all of expressing an understanding of his arguments and refuting them.
I've tried, but as it seems you're ignoring me what's the point?
The whole notion that this is an American war, not a Ukrainian one, completely ignores what was going on in Ukraine in the years prior to 2014 and indeed the Ukrainian attitude to Russian domination over generations. Currently it's not clear that you recognise this whole premise of Todd's position is inaccurate.
Todd has at least once bought into the Russian notion that Ukraine is not a real country. Again an extremely problematic premise lying behind many of his arguments. That's one clear difference, the question is whether I need to spend time refuting it or not.
The other key point, of course, is that this is not actually a thread about US foreign policy. Todd constantly tries to make it into one, and apparently you want that to be a focus of discussion as well, but it's not. It's about a war in Europe. The US is one of a large number of countries offering support to Ukraine. I've no doubt it's support is important, but this is not a thread about US foreign policy any more than it is a thread about UK foreign policy, German foreign policy, Swedish and Finnish foreign policy, Australian foreign policy, Indian foreign policy, Chinese foreign policy etc etc.
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 10:05:41 PMFrom what I see, there's a real and serious debate here that gets sidetracked. Not only are people saying that Todd is a jerk, they're saying his arguments are laughable. However, in my opinion they don't do a good job at all of expressing an understanding of his arguments and refuting them. I mostly see a lot of outrage and dismissiveness.
Then say what you like about his "arguments" and we'll see if you can do a better job than Todd of defending them.
Quote from: SimonNZ on December 25, 2022, 11:28:03 PMThen say what you like about his "arguments" and we'll see if you can do a better job than Todd of defending them.
I think he does a far better job than I could because, again, he seems to know much more. I don't read that much history. I've read no economic or military theory. There was a time when I read a bit of history and philosophy but I've forgotten much of it. I'm pretty tired these days with a 5 year old and a 3 year old and a job. The older I get the less I know. Some of the questions that might come out of these arguments are rather interesting if we could get past all the back and forth insulting.
Quote from: milk on December 26, 2022, 02:01:54 AMSome of the questions that might come out of these arguments are rather interesting if we could get past all the back and forth insulting.
Or the blatant ignoring of someone who is trying to engage with you.
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 10:05:41 PMbut you're just characterizing his points. You're not actually saying anything. He is. I'm sure you have made more substantive points here so I'm not saying you never say anything worthwhile. I just think we're off point at the moment. I have to do some work myself to go back through what I think his arguments boil down to and where the main differences are. From what I see, there's a real and serious debate here that gets sidetracked. Not only are people saying that Todd is a jerk, they're saying his arguments are laughable. However, in my opinion they don't do a good job at all of expressing an understanding of his arguments and refuting them. I mostly see a lot of outrage and dismissiveness.
I do notice that Todd can't be enlisted into seriously steel-manning his opposition. But then again, it seems ridiculous that no one here seems to think Todd isn't making a serious case. That's got it be corrected. If American foreign policy is going to continue this way, and if it's going to be there in opposition to China, then the case has got to be made. You can't very well just laugh at those who see an alternative. It's a scary world.
Thank you for spelling this out. As one who has taken a modest amount of heat for not banning an 'opposition' voice, it's nice to see that at least one person here seems to understand that making people comfortable because they are surrounded by like thinkers is not doing them a favor. There have been many people on the political topics who actually were playing at what you accuse Todd of, but a closer look will show that they aren't here anymore. You're welcome.
If people want to voluntarily engage in a topic that has nothing to do with why we are here, then you need to think more about the substance being presented than your personal feelings about the presenter. When you are concentrating on the innate assholery of the person making an argument, you have already 'lost' both the high ground and the argument.
🤠
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 26, 2022, 06:17:20 AMThank you for spelling this out. As one who has taken a modest amount of heat for not banning an 'opposition' voice, it's nice to see that at least one person here seems to understand that making people comfortable because they are surrounded by like thinkers is not doing them a favor. There have been many people on the political topics who actually were playing at what you accuse Todd of, but a closer look will show that they aren't here anymore. You're welcome.
If people want to voluntarily engage in a topic that has nothing to do with why we are here, then you need to think more about the substance being presented than your personal feelings about the presenter. When you are concentrating on the innate assholery of the person making an argument, you have already 'lost' both the high ground and the argument.
🤠
I definitely didn't get interested in Todd's posts because I agreed with them. It's completely the contrary. And he still hasn't changed my mind. But he's brought me closer to the fence on some things and made me question other things more seriously. I mean, I'm not ready to abandon Europe and I wouldn't be happy to see Putin stomp around unchecked. But living in Japan I see Japan rearming itself while maintaining a nothing-sized military force and a constitutional amendment against war. It's untenable or questionable at best. What is reasonable to expect for America's role in the decades to come? People are dismissing Todd's view but who else is pushing back in this thread? How else are we to get an exchange of varying ideas?
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 26, 2022, 06:17:20 AMWhen you are concentrating on the innate assholery of the person making an argument, you have already 'lost' both the high ground and the argument.
🤠
No, I don't agree. The argument doesn't happen. It's like an election which hinges on a "border crisis" to make it close to impossible to legislate on immigration for the past few decades. That's what the "crisis" is
for.
Quote from: milk on December 26, 2022, 06:49:52 AMI definitely didn't get interested in Todd's posts because I agreed with them. It's completely the contrary. And he still hasn't changed my mind. But he's brought me closer to the fence on some things and made me question other things more seriously. I mean, I'm not ready to abandon Europe and I wouldn't be happy to see Putin stomp around unchecked. But living in Japan I see Japan rearming itself while maintaining a nothing-sized military force and a constitutional amendment against war. It's untenable or questionable at best. What is reasonable to expect for America's role in the decades to come? People are dismissing Todd's view but who else is pushing back in this thread? How else are we to get an exchange of varying ideas?
I wasn't saying that you were agreeing or disagreeing with him, I was merely celebrating the fact that you are actually trying to work with his POV to try and understand its ramifications.
I rarely (but far from never) agree either, but if I can't stand being here because someone with a different POV isn't being squashed to make me more comfortable, then it's time to look at myself. I am a long way away from banning someone for having pathological character defects. If I did that (with mod consensus of course), there would be fewer members. 😄
🤠
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 04:00:46 PM...
I wouldn't argue with him. Extract the argument. My disagreement is with people saying he ONLY insults. He presents very informed arguments that have got me thinking. I'm observing Todd is well-read in history and in economics. This isn't to say he's faultless (he didn't stick around to defend Trump after the January 6th fiasco, for example). But I wonder if part of the reason that people are so triggered by, and focused on, the insults is that they don't have the comprehensive knowledge to counter all his arguments.
...
I agree that Todd isn't simply a troll. I also agree that he makes reasoned arguments that a quite well informed. And perhaps even true that some folks focus on his insults for reasons as you say. (Personally I am very thick-skinned.)
But it doesn't matter how reasoned you arguments if they are based on flawed premises or are ethically weak. Nor does it matter how well cherry-picked your facts if they ignore the bigger realities.
Quote from: Gurn Blanston on December 26, 2022, 06:17:20 AMThank you for spelling this out. As one who has taken a modest amount of heat for not banning an 'opposition' voice, it's nice to see that at least one person here seems to understand that making people comfortable because they are surrounded by like thinkers is not doing them a favor. There have been many people on the political topics who actually were playing at what you accuse Todd of, but a closer look will show that they aren't here anymore. You're welcome.
If people want to voluntarily engage in a topic that has nothing to do with why we are here, then you need to think more about the substance being presented than your personal feelings about the presenter. When you are concentrating on the innate assholery of the person making an argument, you have already 'lost' both the high ground and the argument.
🤠
You took heat from me for locking the thread when someone else did to Todd what Todd did to everyone else. You're still running this other narrative and you completely ignored the PM where I explained why that narrative is false. With the specific example of what was actually happening.
It's got nothing to do with being an opposition voice. On other forums I've encountered people who I generally agree with who employ Todd's sorts of tactics, and I hated it. And I would happily embrace an opposition voice that did NOT come with innate assholery.
Plus, Todd's own assholery is not confined to this topic. I first encountered it on the thread about movies where he hounded me over a film I hadn't even seen and had no opinion on. Eventually when I did see it years later, my opinion on it was very similar to Todd's. So no, it's not about a differing opinion. It's about the stylistic choice of constantly mocking and belittling people.
But please, keep telling yourself you aren't the worst moderator here by a large distance. And not just because of this.
Quote from: Madiel on December 26, 2022, 10:29:17 AMit's not about a differing opinion. It's about the stylistic choice of constantly mocking and belittling people.
Exactly.
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 10:05:41 PMbut you're just characterizing his points. You're not actually saying anything. He is. I'm sure you have made more substantive points here so I'm not saying you never say anything worthwhile. I just think we're off point at the moment. I have to do some work myself to go back through what I think his arguments boil down to and where the main differences are. From what I see, there's a real and serious debate here that gets sidetracked. Not only are people saying that Todd is a jerk, they're saying his arguments are laughable. However, in my opinion they don't do a good job at all of expressing an understanding of his arguments and refuting them. I mostly see a lot of outrage and dismissiveness.
I do notice that Todd can't be enlisted into seriously steel-manning his opposition. But then again, it seems ridiculous that no one here seems to think Todd isn't making a serious case. That's got it be corrected. If American foreign policy is going to continue this way, and if it's going to be there in opposition to China, then the case has got to be made. You can't very well just laugh at those who see an alternative. It's a scary world.
What alternative is Todd suggesting?
You're correct about his arguments not being taken seriously (by me at least).
I don't take them seriously when I hear them from Fox or Russia Today or from any member of the U.S. isolationist Right. Why would I take them seriously when I hear them from Todd.
Quote from: Madiel on December 26, 2022, 10:29:17 AMAnd I would happily embrace an opposition voice that did NOT come with innate assholery.
Plus, Todd's own assholery is not confined to this topic. I first encountered it on the thread about movies where he hounded me over a film I hadn't even seen and had no opinion on. Eventually when I did see it years later, my opinion on it was very similar to Todd's. So no, it's not about a differing opinion. It's about the stylistic choice of constantly mocking and belittling people.
Yes.
I would now like to put on record that Gurn's response to my post was to press the Like button. That's it.
Anything that goes against his prior built narrative that it's just about disliking different views, washes straight over.
There are other moderators. I'd like to hear from them.
The news from the battlefield reinforces the prospect of a faltering Russian Svatove-Kremmina frontline in the northeastern Luhansk region. Particularly the situation in Kreminna is critical. Russia is throwing in many of the reserves it has left to hold the lines, but is increasingly confronted with deserting troops.
Also more and more reports that Russian economy is heading for a breaking point and that a bank run has been developping over the past few days, triggered by restrictions on cash withdrawals.
Quote from: Que on December 28, 2022, 01:25:52 AMThe news from the battlefield reinforces the prospect of a faltering Russian Svatove-Kremmina frontline in the northeastern Luhansk region. Particularly the situation in Kreminna is critical. Russia is throwing in many of the reserves it has left to hold the lines, but is increasingly confronted with deserting troops.
Also more and more reports that Russian economy is heading for a breaking point and that a bank run has been developping over the past few days, triggered by restrictions on cash withdrawals.
Lets see if Poetin gives in to the internal pressure of the Kremlin, to stop this war. The resistance to the war seems to be mounting to a critical level.
What has Russia achieved with this war so far?
Is Russia better off now than a year ago?
Doesn't look like that to me, but I'm just a clueless dude online...
Quote from: 71 dB on December 28, 2022, 02:57:42 AMWhat has Russia achieved with this war so far?
Is Russia better off now than a year ago?
Doesn't look like that to me, but I'm just a clueless dude online...
If the recurring reports of the early stage of Parkinson's and late stage cancer are correct, Putin tried to leave his everlasting mark on the history of Russia. Well, in that he has succeeded...
Quote from: milk on December 22, 2022, 08:38:36 PMI do feel like there's too much media taking a particular side.
The corporate press is unabashedly pro-war. Partly as a result, a lot of people are unabashedly pro-war.
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 04:00:46 PMI'd forgotten that Todd's views used to be the ones of the left
Some of the views used to be held by the anti-war "left" in the US, some by libertarians, some by conservative non-interventionists. (You will see some people get confused and misuse the word isolationism and its variants. That is not uncommon.)
Quote from: milk on December 25, 2022, 06:41:09 PMI've a Japanese friend who once told me angrily that "America killed more people in war than anyone!"
Your Japanese friend was correct when considering the post-war era. Prior to that, some other countries, including Japan, boasted rather high kill totals in their wars.
Quote from: milk on December 26, 2022, 06:49:52 AMI mean, I'm not ready to abandon Europe and I wouldn't be happy to see Putin stomp around unchecked.
Europe as a whole is the highest income region of the world with more wealth than the US. Europe is home to some world class defense contractors. Some European countries have accomplished military histories. Europe is more than capable of checking Russia without US assistance. The conditions that existed in 1949 are long gone. NATO has not been needed since 1991. Russia in 2022 is not the USSR in the wake of WWII. Leaving European defense to Europe is not abandoning Europe; it is simply transferring responsibility for defending continued sovereignty to the countries that desire sovereignty. The same approach applies to Asian countries. Underlying any argument that the US necessarily has some type of role or interest in defending and preserving any other country via continued occupation and military assistance is an at least implicit and sometimes explicit embrace of imperialism.
Quote from: Que on December 28, 2022, 03:05:56 AMIf the recurring reports of the early stage of Parkinson's and late stage cancer are correct, Putin tried to leave his everlasting mark on the history of Russia. Well, in that he has succeeded...
Gossip regarding Putin's health is common.
Quote from: Harry on December 28, 2022, 01:29:52 AMLets see if Poetin gives in to the internal pressure of the Kremlin, to stop this war. The resistance to the war seems to be mounting to a critical level.
I think the officials around Putin are thinking about their personal circumstances. Being for or against a policy is not decided according to an external criteria. People don't want to fall out of windows. They have to keep their escape plan updated to avoid any nastiness at borders, things like that.
Quote from: Que on December 28, 2022, 03:05:56 AMIf the recurring reports of the early stage of Parkinson's and late stage cancer are correct, Putin tried to leave his everlasting mark on the history of Russia. Well, in that he has succeeded...
I understand people wanting to leave their everlasting mark on the history, but that kind of mark? I'd rather be remembered as a hero than a total asshole who ruined things for everyone.
Quote from: Que on December 28, 2022, 03:05:56 AMIf the recurring reports of the early stage of Parkinson's and late stage cancer are correct, Putin tried to leave his everlasting mark on the history of Russia. Well, in that he has succeeded...
Am l mistaken in believing that you actually intended to write, " skidmark " ? ;)
Quote from: Todd on December 28, 2022, 05:36:24 AMThe corporate press is unabashedly pro-war. Partly as a result, a lot of people are unabashedly pro-war.
More newspeak. Pro-defense (of territorial integrity) ≠ pro-war. The unwarranted extrapolation from the particular (this war) to the general (war) is a cheap and transparent smear tactic.
Otherwise, nice post.
Quote from: Todd on December 28, 2022, 05:36:24 AMEurope as a whole is the highest income region of the world with more wealth than the US. Europe is home to some world class defense contractors. Some European countries have accomplished military histories. Europe is more than capable of checking Russia without US assistance. The conditions that existed in 1949 are long gone. NATO has not been needed since 1991. Russia in 2022 is not the USSR in the wake of WWII. Leaving European defense to Europe is not abandoning Europe; it is simply transferring responsibility for defending continued sovereignty to the countries that desire sovereignty. The same approach applies to Asian countries. Underlying any argument that the US necessarily has some type of role or interest in defending and preserving any other country via continued occupation and military assistance is an at least implicit and sometimes explicit embrace of imperialism.
But Tucker Carlson said that last night!
Quote from: JBS on December 26, 2022, 12:22:01 PMWhat alternative is Todd suggesting?
You're correct about his arguments not being taken seriously (by me at least).
I don't take them seriously when I hear them from Fox or Russia Today or from any member of the U.S. isolationist Right. Why would I take them seriously when I hear them from Todd.
I'm not saying I accept the alternative. Should we just just pretend it's not there? Remember "Brexit"? Wasn't that the result of pretending a problem didn't exist? Remember trump?
Quote from: milk on December 28, 2022, 02:49:24 PMBut Tucker Carlson said that last night!
He did? Good for him.
(https://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/D8Image/2022/12/21/tucker_carlson_tonight_-_08_00_01_pm_89.jpg?VersionId=TVy2rXiJhnotqMaaXoickUP3WAE81bzO)
Quote from: SimonNZ on December 28, 2022, 03:17:32 PM(https://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/D8Image/2022/12/21/tucker_carlson_tonight_-_08_00_01_pm_89.jpg?VersionId=TVy2rXiJhnotqMaaXoickUP3WAE81bzO)
Okay I'll bite. How has he supposedly done this?
Edit: Is this to do with the Russian-affiliated church versus the independent Ukrainian one?
Perhaps the world alliance system taken as whole is some kind of evolutionary advance on more traditional imperial -isms. One way it seems to be a genuine advance is that countries have considerable room to maneuver on how much sovereignty to give up. They have bargaining power and the US doesn't seem to be able to get them to contribute more to collective defense than the countries want to spend. Uncle Sam can't get the kids to clean their rooms!
Of course the US spends dollars for European defense into US pockets. We are not simpletons. The best way to get or stay rich is to invest in things you'd have to do even if it wasn't profitable, but merely necessary. There's no better way to make money than to do what you have to do.
Having said that, I have to wonder if the US hasn't been a bit clever. Instead of bullying Japan into bulking up, creating resentment and possibly failing as well, we let China persuade the Japanese of the wisdom of strength, as they have done far better than US lectures. Bravo, China. Japan will be the Poland of Asia.
Quote from: SimonNZ on December 28, 2022, 03:17:32 PM(https://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/D8Image/2022/12/21/tucker_carlson_tonight_-_08_00_01_pm_89.jpg?VersionId=TVy2rXiJhnotqMaaXoickUP3WAE81bzO)
Not only does he spout baseless Putinist propaganda, but he has a ready audience of mush-brains who lap it up.
Quote from: Madiel on December 28, 2022, 03:42:22 PMOkay I'll bite. How has he supposedly done this?
Edit: Is this to do with the Russian-affiliated church versus the independent Ukrainian one?
Seems so.
No, Zelensky Isn't Fighting a 'War on Christianity'
The American right is gullibly parroting a Putin propaganda line. (https://www.thedailybeast.com/no-zelensky-isnt-fighting-a-war-on-christianity)
[...]
"He was referring to Ukraine's decision in early December to effectively shut down the Moscow-linked Russian Orthodox Church in the country. The reason? As Christianity Today reported, Ukrainian authorities say they have "uncovered large amounts of cash, 'dubious' Russian citizens, and leaflets calling on people to join the Russian army...Other material cited as evidence included prayer texts of ROC patriarch Kirill and a video of hymn singing that celebrated Russia's 'awakening.'"
It's easy to understand why Zelensky wants to prevent a fifth column spy network from operating in Ukraine. However, his actions provide fodder to prove he is at war with Christianity.
The charge that Zelensky is at war with Christianity is potentially a potent wedge issue on the right, particularly as Republicans, many of whom are Christian (and many of whom are increasingly skeptical of foreign entanglements) take control of the U.S. House of Representatives next month. Most Republicans still support aiding Ukraine, but support is declining. If this narrative takes hold, it is sure to negatively impact our role as an ally.
Russia knows this. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, wasted no time in casting Zelensky as an enemy of Christendom, saying, "The current Ukrainian authorities have openly become enemies of Christ and the Orthodox faith." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov went so far as to accuse Ukraine of "waging a war on the Russian Orthodox Church."
But is it true? It seems to me that if Zelensky is actually waging a war on Christianity, then it is an ill-advised war against his own constituents. According to the Pew Research Center, 78 percent of Ukrainians identify as Orthodox (a higher percentage than exists in Russia).
Meanwhile, only "14 percent of the public called themselves faithful to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate..." That leaves a lot of Christians with whom Zelensky isn't at war with.
As The Wall Street Journal notes, a rival Orthodox Church of Ukraine "was recognized in 2019 by the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople as fully independent from Russia, a major diplomatic achievement for Kyiv and a blow to Russian soft power."
[...]
Yeah well, it isn't hard to envisage people not bothering to understand about different denominations and on the other side of the world and just saying "Christianity". Much as lumping all Muslims together is what allowed the story that Saddam Hussein was cooperating with Al-Qaeda.
When the patriarch of Constantinople, the most senior person in Orthodox Christianity, gave his blessing to an independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church in late 2018/early 2019, the Russian Orthodox were absolutely livid and severed ties. Why? Because they regard Ukraine as part of their territory. It's simply another part of the ongoing ideological battle where Russian institutions don't accept Ukraine as a distinct country.
Quote from: Todd on December 28, 2022, 02:52:58 PMHe did? Good for him.
And as we all know, TC is
always truthful... ::)
Hmm. More prominent Russians dying in odd ways.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-29/indian-police-investigate-russian-oligarch-death/101815414
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on December 28, 2022, 04:07:51 PMNot only does he spout baseless Putinist propaganda, but he has a ready audience of mush-brains who lap it up.
The purpose of Fox News is not to inform people.
Isn't it comical how the anti-Soviet Union "red scare" right has transformed into anti-LGBT Putinists within a few decades?
Quote from: SimonNZ on December 28, 2022, 03:17:32 PM(https://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/D8Image/2022/12/21/tucker_carlson_tonight_-_08_00_01_pm_89.jpg?VersionId=TVy2rXiJhnotqMaaXoickUP3WAE81bzO)
As opposed to Putin, Kiril and the Russian army, whose actions are full of Christian love, compassion and non-violence.
Quote from: Florestan on December 29, 2022, 03:27:54 AMAs opposed to Putin, Kiril and the Russian army, whose actions are full of Christian love, compassion and non-violence.
Well said. ;D
Quote from: Todd on December 28, 2022, 05:36:24 AMThe corporate press is unabashedly pro-war. Partly as a result, a lot of people are unabashedly pro-war.
...
Some of the views used to be held by the anti-war "left" in the US, some by libertarians, some by conservative non-interventionists. (You will see some people get confused and misuse the word isolationism and its variants. That is not uncommon.)
Malicious nonsense. It isn't at all "pro-war", it's anti-surrender.
Quote from: Todd on December 28, 2022, 05:36:24 AMEurope as a whole is the highest income region of the world with more wealth than the US. Europe is home to some world class defense contractors. Some European countries have accomplished military histories. Europe is more than capable of checking Russia without US assistance. The conditions that existed in 1949 are long gone. NATO has not been needed since 1991. Russia in 2022 is not the USSR in the wake of WWII. Leaving European defense to Europe is not abandoning Europe; it is simply transferring responsibility for defending continued sovereignty to the countries that desire sovereignty. The same approach applies to Asian countries. Underlying any argument that the US necessarily has some type of role or interest in defending and preserving any other country via continued occupation and military assistance is an at least implicit and sometimes explicit embrace of imperialism.
In fact, and apart from nuclear weapons, European NATO members w/o the USA, have in total a far larger and more capable militaries that the Russian Federation. Leaving aside Putin's use of nuclear blackmail, the European NATO forces substantially outnumber Russia's and could kick the crap out the Russian military any day of the week.
Unfortunately, (from your POV as supporter of Russian imperialist ambitions), the USA provides the only counter to Putin's nuclear blackmail. That fully justifies the USA fulfilling its appropriate NATO role.
Quote from: 71 dB on December 29, 2022, 01:48:46 AMThe purpose of Fox News is not to inform people.
No, they're cynical grifters of just the same ilk as the disgraced former president. Carlson does it for the ratings, and Fox understands perfectly well what his carney show adds to the bottom line.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 29, 2022, 04:57:35 AMMalicious nonsense. It isn't at all "pro-war", it's anti-surrender.
The pro-war propaganda is working.
From Newsweek: U.S. Colonel Training Zelensky Forces Accuses Soldiers of War 'Atrocities' (https://www.newsweek.com/us-colonel-training-zelensky-forces-accuses-soldiers-war-atrocities-1769784)
The group the colonel commands is called The Mozart Group. You can't make this stuff up. Now it's Mozart v Wagner. Since it's Newsweek, the report can probably be dismissed outright. Of course, the United States State Department issued a report highlighting one or two areas of concern way back in 2021.
UKRAINE 2021 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT (https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/313615_UKRAINE-2021-HUMAN-RIGHTS-REPORT.pdf)
Who can lead Ukraine forward and work out these problems? Surely it is Time's Puppet of the Year. I mean, sure, he's one corrupt cookie, but he's all light and goodness and above board now. I'm surprised he hasn't called for an audit of financial and weapons support received during this proxy war. He will, no doubt. Until then, a refresher on what he used to be like from the Graun:
Revealed: 'anti-oligarch' Ukrainian president's offshore connections
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has railed against politicians hiding wealth offshore but failed to disclose links to BVI firm (https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/03/revealed-anti-oligarch-ukrainian-president-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy)
I don't think filming Russian prisoners of war would count as an atrocity, though it's a violation of something.
The production company that made the Zelensky comedy series is very offshore for tax reasons. He "divested" just before the election. Zowie! That's almost the US level of corruption.
I note that MMT saint Warren Mosler ran his hedge fund from the US Virgin Islands where he's a legal resident for corruption purposes. Do you need any more proof we should go back to the gold standard?
I just saw a pic of a Tesla in Kyiv with a generator attached to its back. Now that is corruption!
(https://preview.redd.it/in-kyiv-they-spotted-a-tesla-car-with-a-gasoline-generator-v0-v2akjnr98p8a1.jpg?auto=webp&s=b33722bdd1015942dff2b947ba6dc7fd2d5e5407)
Belarus claims a Uke missile landed on its territory. That may be true, since Russia fires missiles from Belarus and the Ukes would use SAMs to intercept them. The missile in question is the S-300.
The Ukes would consider it crazy to use very effective SAMs against a ground target. The Russians are are crazy desperate and have done exactly that.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on December 29, 2022, 05:25:37 AMNo, they're cynical grifters of just the same ilk as the disgraced former president. Carlson does it for the ratings, and Fox understands perfectly well what his carney show adds to the bottom line.
People like Tucker Carlson believe in nothing except for self-enrichment. They don't care if other people die because of their lies (e.g. anti-vaxx/mask propaganda). They don't care about the future of the country or the World as long as they are doing fine. They would praise Venezuela if it showed positively on their bank accounts. These are highly contemptible people.
Quote from: 71 dB on December 29, 2022, 10:01:39 AMPeople like Tucker Carlson believe in nothing except for self-enrichment. They don't care if other people die because of their lies (e.g. anti-vaxx/mask propaganda). They don't care about the future of the country or the World as long as they are doing fine. They would praise Venezuela if it showed positively on their bank accounts. These are highly contemptible people.
+1
It would be tremendously satisfying to see Dominion triumph in court, with heavy penalties assessed against Murdoch & company.
Quote from: 71 dB on December 29, 2022, 10:01:39 AMPeople like Tucker Carlson believe in nothing except for self-enrichment. They don't care if other people die because of their lies (e.g. anti-vaxx/mask propaganda). They don't care about the future of the country or the World as long as they are doing fine. They would praise Venezuela if it showed positively on their bank accounts. These are highly contemptible people.
Yes.
Separately:
Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/)
Quote from: 71 dB on December 29, 2022, 10:01:39 AMThey would praise Venezuela if it showed positively on their bank accounts.
That would be in line with US policy: Biden administration opens the door for Chevron to resume oil pumping in Venezuela after lobbying push against sanctions (https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2022/11/biden-administration-opens-the-door-for-chevron-to-resume-oil-pumping-in-venezuela-after-lobbying-push-against-sanctions/)
Yet another side effect of the war in Ukraine.
Quote from: Florestan on December 29, 2022, 03:27:54 AMAs opposed to Putin, Kiril and the Russian army, whose actions are full of Christian love, compassion and non-violence.
I have to say it's kind of hilarious to see this new propaganda attempt when the Russian military spent several months (from June to September of this year) occupying a famous monastery that's part of the Moscow Patriarchate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatohirsk_Lavra) and not only repeatedly killing monks and civilians sheltering there, but also (allegedly) turning it into a detention site for political prisoners.
Obviously such things happen in war and etc, but the whole push to pretend Russia has some unique and deep-seated respect for Orthodox Christianity feels particularly bizarre—a lie that's so easy to disprove that its very circulation feels like an expression of spite and contempt.
The seeds have been sown to end the war in Ukraine (https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3791832-the-seeds-have-been-sown-to-end-the-war-in-ukraine/)
Negotiations in the air? Maybe, maybe. It will be interesting to observe written and verbal statements by people who currently advocate militarism and war when negotiations become the focus. And it is when, not if.
I think it's fairly easy for both sides to make noises about negotiating during a time when weather conditions had anyway pushed the fighting to a low ebb (Russians & Ukrainians are of course used to fighting in the winter, but paradoxically this winter is shaping up to not be cold enough: cycles of periodic snowfalls and freezes followed by days of above-freezing temperatures, thawing out the ground and turning it back into mud). The real question is whether they'll still be willing to negotiate in the spring. Increases in the US military budget and advance promises of tens of billions of dollars more of military aid suggest that the US government, at least, is not particularly keen to encourage this and wants the war to continue indefinitely.
(A recent article claimed that Russia has likewise put in orders for something like three million artillery shells—from domestic arms manufacturers owned in part or whole by Putin allies, of course—for next year.)
I'm guessing that winter doesn't have much effect on missiles and drones, which are certainly appearing in the headlines regularly.
Quote from: amw on December 29, 2022, 06:26:04 PMIncreases in the US military budget and advance promises of tens of billions of dollars more of military aid suggest that the US government, at least, is not particularly keen to encourage this and wants the war to continue indefinitely.
Nothing personal, but that's just absolute rubbish. Helping them to defend themselves is not desiring the war to continue!!! To stop this, all Putin needs to do is ... STOP. His gov't is the aggressor, not Ukraine (or their supporters.)
Quote from: amw on December 29, 2022, 06:26:04 PMIncreases in the US military budget and advance promises of tens of billions of dollars more of military aid suggest that the US government, at least, is not particularly keen to encourage this and wants the war to continue indefinitely.
No, no, not Uncle Sam. The USA is taking every possible step to ensure a quick end to hostilities and is doing its utmost to preserve not just Ukraine, but democracy itself.
Quote from: Todd on December 29, 2022, 06:45:46 PMNo, no, not Uncle Sam. The USA is taking every possible step to ensure a quick end to hostilities and is doing its utmost to preserve not just Ukraine, but democracy itself.
You genuinely show no sign of understanding how to preserve Ukraine. You keep advocating its annexation. Oh sure, you support its NEGOTIATED annexation...
Frankly I don't think you get that preserving lives and preserving Ukraine are different goals. Or that to the extent they might not be compatible goals, it's the fault of Russia.
Quote from: Madiel on December 29, 2022, 06:44:52 PMI'm guessing that winter doesn't have much effect on missiles and drones, which are certainly appearing in the headlines regularly.
True, but isolated missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure serve little military purpose and are only a means to terrorize the civilian population by disrupting electricity and essential services. Russia has yet to launch a sustained aerial bombing campaign à la Iraq (and probably will not do so).
Quote from: Scion7 on December 29, 2022, 06:45:27 PMHelping them to defend themselves is not desiring the
war to continue!!!
The thing about US military aid is that it is not actually helping Ukrainians defend themselves—the opposite, in some cases.
Until 2022, the vast majority of Ukrainian military equipment was either inherited from the USSR, or domestically produced by Ukrainian military industry to be compatible with Soviet ammunition and technological standards. So for example Ukraine produced 152mm shells (instead of the 155mm NATO standard) and its own modified versions of Soviet multiple rocket launchers (instead of the NATO HIMARS) etc. It had certainly begun adding small amounts of NATO-standard equipment and training specialised units to use it, but the bulk of the military was not trained to do this.
Some NATO countries have, since the start of this phase of the war, supplied Ukraine with their own Soviet-era or modernised equipment (T-72s, Grads, MiG fighter jets etc)—Poland, Czechia, Romania etc. This can be justifiably seen as helping Ukraine defend itself.
The USA on the other hand has exclusively (as far as I know) supplied Ukraine with American-made military equipment. Often quite modern, expensive equipment that requires units to be pulled off the frontline for several weeks to learn how to use it. As the supply of NATO-standard equipment significantly outpaces that of Soviet-standard equipment, however, Ukrainian military units become increasingly dependent on the troops being trained by American, British & French military advisors—about 10,000 every three months, apparently—and on deliveries of more artillery shells, missiles, etc. Lack of familiarity with the new equipment also means much of it is breaking down or not being serviced adequately, and is thus perceived as inferior.
It's notable that US officials have also publicly claimed to be restraining Ukraine from directly attacking Russian territory in various ways, and are refusing to supply Ukraine with some of the weapons it's been requesting.
Essentially, American military aid is mostly about providing a direct handout to American weapons manufacturers, secondarily about preserving the global status quo and avoiding upsetting things too much by e.g. actually inciting a US-Russian war or allowing the Ukrainian government to collapse, tertiarily about showing off American weapons in real live-fire conditions to ensure future profits from other customers. Additional possible benefit of creating a long-term client state/captive market entirely financially & militarily dependent on the USA. Defending Ukraine seems to come in around fifth place.
Quote from: amw on December 29, 2022, 11:17:04 PMUS officials have also publicly claimed to be restraining Ukraine from directly attacking Russian territory
A very rational and reasonable restraint, actually.
Quote from: amw on December 29, 2022, 11:17:04 PMEssentially, American military aid is mostly about providing a direct handout to American weapons manufacturers, secondarily about preserving the global status quo and avoiding upsetting things too much by e.g. actually inciting a US-Russian war or allowing the Ukrainian government to collapse, tertiarily about showing off American weapons in real live-fire conditions to ensure future profits from other customers. Additional possible benefit of creating a long-term client state/captive market entirely financially & militarily dependent on the USA. Defending Ukraine seems to come in around fifth place.
I think we have to be realistic here...
We can't expect defending Ukraine for the US to be a goal in itself. The main purpose is maintaining stability and security in Europe, and yes, maintaining the global status quo without triggering a full scale and direct armed conflict between NATO and Russia. The US is protecting its economic and geopolitical interests here. There is nothing altruistic about it. But there is nothing wrong with aligned interests - that is what alliances are about. And US and European interests have been aligned since the 1st World War.
Any war is good for the weapons industry, both in the US and Europe. The claim that war is instigated or perpetuated in the interest of the weapons industry, is a classic argument. Evidently financing weapons for Ukraine creates an economic return for the Western weapons industry. Indeed, by invading Ukraine Putin has personally boosted national defence budgets throughout Europe and the western weapons industry for decades to come.
Regardless of the military aid to Ukraine. I don't even rule out that current events will finally lead to a European common defense structure ("army"). We desperately need it...
The restraint in delivering "new/foreign" weapons to the Ukrainians is IMO sufficient indication that the interests of the weapons industry was not a primary concern. If we as Europeans are concerned about a growing US influence in this respect, we should step up. For instance by delevering the
European Leopard tanks that Ukraine so desperately wants. And pressure the Swiss to let go of their "neutrality" restrictions on delivering Swiss manufactured weapons systems and ammunition to Ukraine.
Quote from: Todd on December 29, 2022, 06:00:49 AMFrom Newsweek: U.S. Colonel Training Zelensky Forces Accuses Soldiers of War 'Atrocities' (https://www.newsweek.com/us-colonel-training-zelensky-forces-accuses-soldiers-war-atrocities-1769784)
The group the colonel commands is called The Mozart Group. You can't make this stuff up. Now it's Mozart v Wagner. Since it's Newsweek, the report can probably be dismissed outright. Of course, the United States State Department issued a report highlighting one or two areas of concern way back in 2021.
UKRAINE 2021 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT (https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/313615_UKRAINE-2021-HUMAN-RIGHTS-REPORT.pdf)
Who can lead Ukraine forward and work out these problems? Surely it is Time's Puppet of the Year. I mean, sure, he's one corrupt cookie, but he's all light and goodness and above board now. I'm surprised he hasn't called for an audit of financial and weapons support received during this proxy war. He will, no doubt. Until then, a refresher on what he used to be like from the Graun:
Revealed: 'anti-oligarch' Ukrainian president's offshore connections
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has railed against politicians hiding wealth offshore but failed to disclose links to BVI firm (https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/03/revealed-anti-oligarch-ukrainian-president-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy)
The Pandora papers go in all directions. If I remember correctly, they're a totally nonpartisan source of mud on world leaders. It's interesting what gets covered and what doesn't.
Newsweek has been for some time as much of a far right/MAGA outlet as Fox News.
Time leans fairly hard in the other direction, but unlike Newsweek it still tries to live up to its reputation as objective.
Quote from: JBS on December 30, 2022, 04:41:40 AMNewsweek has been for some time as much of a far right/MAGA outlet as Fox News.
Time leans fairly hard in the other direction, but unlike Newsweek it still tries to live up to its reputation as objective.
I was reading from the two links on the bottom, not Newsweek. It doesn't necessarily have any bearing on this war though. It's just the way it's covered. But Zelensky doesn't need to be some sort of saint for Putin to be horrible.
Quote from: amw on December 29, 2022, 11:17:04 PMIt's notable that US officials have also publicly claimed to be restraining Ukraine from directly attacking Russian territory in various ways, and are refusing to supply Ukraine with some of the weapons it's been requesting.
The US and Russia are engaged in a proxy war. If some US and NATO made systems are used against Russia in Ukraine, the Russians will view that as an escalation. The same applies to any incursions into Russia. Russia is of course being vague about what constitutes true redlines.
Quote from: Que on December 30, 2022, 02:08:26 AMThe main purpose is maintaining stability and security in Europe, and yes, maintaining the global status quo without triggering a full scale and direct armed conflict between NATO and Russia.
Lloyd Austin publicly stated that one of America's goals is to permanently weaken Russia. That is not maintaining the status quo. It is quite striking that people disregard open, public statements made by some of the senior most leaders in this proxy war. Also, further expansion of NATO is, by defintion, not maintaining the status quo.
Quote from: Que on December 30, 2022, 02:08:26 AMThe US is protecting its economic and geopolitical interests here.
It is not clear this is the case. The US has no economic or strategic interests in Ukraine. This type of statement is too vague to have value.
Quote from: Que on December 30, 2022, 02:08:26 AMAnd US and European interests have been aligned since the 1st World War.
Not really. First, US economic relations with Europe have been centered on the UK and France for centuries, and since the Treaty of Washington, financial ties between the UK and the US have been of paramount importance. Indeed, at the outset of WWI, one of the main interests the US had was the financial relationship between Wall Street and the City of London and the possible disruptions that German victory might bring. There was no arms industry as is now known at that time. Second, in the wake of WWI, the US demobilized, put together the first bail-out plan for the Old World, and then stayed out of the League of Nations. What is now commonly referred to as some long-term shared set of interests between the US and Europe dates to the establishment of NATO and the Bretton Woods system.
Quote from: Que on December 30, 2022, 02:08:26 AMAny war is good for the weapons industry, both in the US and Europe. The claim that war is instigated or perpetuated in the interest of the weapons industry, is a classic argument.
There is much more to it. Eisenhower's assessment of the military-industrial complex remains one of the soundest analyses of the pernicious effects of permanent militarization of foreign policy. Not only weapons manufacturers benefit, but so do all interested institutions, public and private, as well as individual careerists within those institutions.
Quote from: milk on December 30, 2022, 02:26:42 AMI was joking. I've no idea.
I know. The point was that people who resort to name checking Tucker Carlson are rehashing a variant of the Fox News! "argument". People who do that got nothing.
Quote from: milk on December 30, 2022, 02:35:08 AMThe Pandora papers go in all directions. If I remember correctly, they're a totally nonpartisan source of mud on world leaders. It's interesting what gets covered and what doesn't.
The Panama and Pandora Papers contained all manner of salacious details about all sorts of people. They contained far more boring, mundane non-revelations about how the wealthy exploit existing law to avoid (not evade) taxes, remove all liability, and achieve anonymity for all manner of reasons. This is too boring and complicated to generate juicy headlines or quick prosecutions. Obama called for a variety of reforms in the wake of the Panama Papers. It is worth noting that the world leading tax haven and zero employee LLC capital of the world is the US, and Delaware, home state to the current President, leads in this country.
Quote from: JBS on December 30, 2022, 04:41:40 AMNewsweek has been for some time as much of a far right/MAGA outlet as Fox News.
Time leans fairly hard in the other direction, but unlike Newsweek it still tries to live up to its reputation as objective.
Neither statement corresponds to what media bias review websites report.
Quote from: milk on December 30, 2022, 05:45:41 AMBut Zelensky doesn't need to be some sort of saint for Putin to be horrible.
Zelensky is a POS. Putin is a bigger POS.
Quote from: amw on December 29, 2022, 11:17:04 PMEssentially, American military aid is mostly about providing a direct handout to American weapons manufacturers, secondarily about preserving the global status quo and avoiding upsetting things too much by e.g. actually inciting a US-Russian war or allowing the Ukrainian government to collapse, tertiarily about showing off American weapons in real live-fire conditions to ensure future profits from other customers. Additional possible benefit of creating a long-term client state/captive market entirely financially & militarily dependent on the USA. Defending Ukraine seems to come in around fifth place.
This doesn't explain why the US has been so reluctant to increase my profits. Why do I get thin gruel instead of the rich rewards I deserve? Is it because preserving the status quo takes precedence?
I want my weapons tested in front of the whole world to increase sales, and if Russia refuses to invade more countries
I'll pay my people more to do it themselves!! Somebody fetch me people!
I know how "really about" works. You unweave the rainbow of motivations that operate in policy decision, find a hue that is a bit more nauseous than others and declare you've found out the rainbow is "really about" that.
Let's recap. The US won't incite Russia to invade Ukraine or anyone else because it will upset the status quo. But if it decides to trigger a Russian invasion it will be to increase profits which are really handouts. The most successful defensive alliance in history is really about a bunch of bad stuff.
Next we'll explore that hidden well of altruism in Putinist warmongery. You won't believe what comes in fifth!
No, really, you won't.
Obviously things are not going well for Russia...
Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week.
Quote:
"On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens of Russia who are liable for military service. First of all, this concerns residents of major Russian cities. I know for sure that you have about one week when there is at least some choice left.
In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then declare martial law and begin another wave of mobilisation. The borders will also be closed in Belarus."
Quote from: Que on December 31, 2022, 01:38:38 AMObviously things are not going well for Russia...
Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week.
Quote:
"On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens of Russia who are liable for military service. First of all, this concerns residents of major Russian cities. I know for sure that you have about one week when there is at least some choice left.
In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then declare martial law and begin another wave of mobilisation. The borders will also be closed in Belarus."
I mean, there are two possibilities here. One is that it's true. The other is that it's clever Ukrainian propaganda to induce Russian men to flee the country and deprive the Russian army of future resources.
Quote from: Que on December 31, 2022, 01:38:38 AMObviously things are not going well for Russia...
Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week.
Quote:
"On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens of Russia who are liable for military service. First of all, this concerns residents of major Russian cities. I know for sure that you have about one week when there is at least some choice left.
In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then declare martial law and begin another wave of mobilisation. The borders will also be closed in Belarus."
Quote from: Madiel on December 31, 2022, 03:15:35 AMI mean, there are two possibilities here. One is that it's true. The other is that it's clever Ukrainian propaganda to induce Russian men to flee the country and deprive the Russian army of future resources.
Interesting quote and comments too! May I ask where you read this Que?
Another possibility: that the Ukrainians are trying to encourage further protests and revolting by the Russian people?
PD
Quote from: amw on December 29, 2022, 11:17:04 PMEssentially, American military aid is mostly about providing a direct handout to American weapons manufacturers, secondarily about preserving the global status quo and avoiding upsetting things too much by e.g. actually inciting a US-Russian war or allowing the Ukrainian government to collapse, tertiarily about showing off American weapons in real live-fire conditions to ensure future profits from other customers. Additional possible benefit of creating a long-term client state/captive market entirely financially & militarily dependent on the USA. Defending Ukraine seems to come in around fifth place.
This is mostly complete nonsense for reasons pointed out by
@Que. The USA has been extremely hesitant about sending latest weapons, especially offensive weapons to Ukraine.
A few days ago the USA sent stocks of Russian-caliber artillery shell to Ukraine because, of course, Ukraine is stuck with a lot of old, Soviet era equipment.
When I think of it, one of the ironies of this war is that Ukraine is being eased into the use of, and reliance, on NATO-style equipment. Did Putin and his military lackeys anticipate that?
Humm, maybe not.
The war has been a total fail on Putin's part.
- He assumed quick victory in couple of weeks offence;
- He assume that the NATO would let invasion pass on account of the quick, fete accompli victory;
- He hope NATO resolve would be weaken on account of European countries' reliance on Russian gas and oil.
- He hoped to keep Ukraine permanently out of the EU and NATO -- this is the only aspect in which he has the least hope going forward.
That last hope of Putin's should be denied him.
Quote from: Fëanor on December 31, 2022, 04:32:57 AMfete accompli
Ahem... it's
fait accompli, actually. ;)
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on December 31, 2022, 04:24:50 AMInteresting quote and comments too! May I ask where you read this Que?
Another possibility: that the Ukrainians are trying to encourage further protests and revolting by the Russian people?
PD
There are several sources on the speech, but you can watch it yourself:
Naturally the Ukrainians are trying to encourage eligible Russian men to dodge the draft. But they have no reason to lie: lie once, and nobody is ever going to believe you again. Particularly the Russian public.
This is known as credibility. Something that went very much out of fashion in current politics, but it is an extremely powerful tool. Particularly when your opponent is continuously lying.
BTW the 5th of January is mentioned as the possible date for the Russian measure. Russians that fight in Ukraine are now exempted from income tax and can have their sperm frozen in. What could possibly be the problem?
Quote from: Que on December 31, 2022, 01:38:38 AMObviously things are not going well for Russia...
How could things go well for Russia when their vision for the future is not only unrealistic, but also lunatic?
Quote from: Que on December 31, 2022, 01:38:38 AMOleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, has warned the Russians that their leadership is preparing for a new "wave" of mobilisation and planning to close the borders within a week.
Quote:
"On the eve of the New Year, I want to address the citizens of Russia who are liable for military service. First of all, this concerns residents of major Russian cities. I know for sure that you have about one week when there is at least some choice left.
In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then declare martial law and begin another wave of mobilisation. The borders will also be closed in Belarus."
I'd say some of this is Ukrainian propaganda, but it is clever propaganda and not a blatant lie. Mobilisation in Russia is a thing to worry about.
A Free World, If You Can Keep It
Ukraine and American Interests (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/robert-kagan-free-world-if-you-can-keep-it-ukraine-america)
Bobbie Kagan's take on US interests in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Parts of this essay are surprisingly sloppy - eg, the bit about American support for the second Iraq War while leaving out that the primary public premise was a lie. Interests are not enumerated, but rather liberalism and such are on the line. In other words, the essay adheres to neocon dogma. Neocon dogma is now embraced the world over. The essay also offers a touching case of a husband publicly protecting the honor of his wife, who just happens to be one of the people most responsible for this mess.
A merit to Kagan for pointing out that FDR was openly interventionist prior to Pearl Harbor, but a demerit for sticking to the historically and intellectually dishonest trope of only referring to the Hawaiian port and not to Japan's attack on the American Empire - and yes, it was a proper colonial empire at the time. A bigger demerit to the author for sticking with the false analogy to WWII. But, neocons.
Quote from: 71 dB on December 31, 2022, 05:50:54 AMI'd say some of this is Ukrainian propaganda, but it is clever propaganda and not a blatant lie. Mobilisation in Russia is a thing to worry about.
Since the war has hardly affected Russians in any other way, for now the mandatory draft seems to be the main thing they worry about. And the economy of course, which has been patched up til now.
The refusal to help Ukraine, and the willingness to help it a little bit but not all that much, are the result of dogma. It goes like this.
The early stages of a war are not our business. In fact (dogma), it's only a war for mongers. If you love peace, it isn't one, it's either 1) a special military operation or 2) not our business but definitely our fault. Both are true.
It reminds me a little of theistic apologetics, attitude masquerading as thought.
Everything America does is wrong, and wrong is defined as everything America does.
Quote from: drogulus on December 31, 2022, 07:33:23 AMEverything America does is wrong, and wrong is defined as everything America does.
This reminds me of someone, but I can't remember of whom... ;D
Quote from: Florestan on December 31, 2022, 05:32:41 AMAhem... it's fait accompli, actually. ;)
Maybe he meant:
fête accomplie
Quote from: premont on December 31, 2022, 09:15:54 AMMaybe he meant:
fête accomplie
Yes, I meant
fait accompli.
Fête accomplie? I hope everyone had fun.
Quote from: Que on December 31, 2022, 05:45:37 AMThere are several sources on the speech, but you can watch it yourself:
BTW the 5th of January is mentioned as the possible date for the Russian measure. Russians that fight in Ukraine are now exempted from income tax and can have their sperm frozen in. What could possibly be the problem?
Thank you for the link. I'll watch it a bit later.
...and exempt from income tax? Hadn't heard that one before. :o
PD
In a turn of events which should surprise no-one, it would seem that the training received by at least some of the recently conscripted Russian troops has been somewhat deficient:
" Russia has said a new year missile attack that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers happened because troops were using mobile phones, defying a ban. "
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64159045
Quote from: LKB on January 04, 2023, 04:18:39 AMIn a turn of events which should surprise no-one, it would seem that the training received by at least some of the recently conscripted Russian troops has been somewhat deficient:
" Russia has said a new year missile attack that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers happened because troops were using mobile phones, defying a ban. "
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64159045
Ukraine claims the real number of deaths is up to 400, with a couple of hundreds more injured.
Quote from: LKB on January 04, 2023, 04:18:39 AMRussia has said a new year missile attack that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers happened because troops were using mobile phones, defying a ban.
No one's gonna tell me not to use my cell phone!
I'm imagining the Ukranian who gave the order to attack saying to himself, " Can you hear me now? " >:D
There is indeed much to celebrate with small military actions.
The toll has really been quite low. For instance, only 6919 civilians have died as of a couple days ago: Number of civilian casualties in Ukraine during Russia's invasion verified by OHCHR as of January 2, 2023 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293492/ukraine-war-casualties/#:~:text=Number%20of%20civilian%20casualties%20during%20the%20war%20in%20Ukraine%202022&text=The%20Office%20of%20the%20United,Of%20them%2C%20428%20were%20children.)
Only about 200,000 military personnel have been killed or injured, split evenly between Russia and Ukraine, at least if the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is considered a trustworthy source: Ukraine war: US estimates 200,000 military casualties on all sides (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63580372). (Mr Milley stated around 40,000 civilians have died, so clearly he's just making stuff up. Best to go with The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.)
Keep fighting.
No negotiations.
Quote from: Todd on January 04, 2023, 08:21:18 AMKeep fighting.
No negotiations.
Putin has certainly been taking your advice sofar. He simply cannot give up and seems willing to go on till the bitter end.
The Ukrainians are predicting new Russian offensives shortly. IMO this would fit perfectly in Putin's mindset: he still thinks he is winning this war instead of losing... and keeps digging a deeper and deeper hole for himself, and for Russia.
The outcome of this war is becoming increasingly more about the fate of Russia than that of Ukraine.
I don't think Putin is going to get a better deal from the US than he has now.
Some say cancer medication made Putin attack Ukraine. If true, that has to be the World record of how much harm medication has caused to other people and the World. Absolutely insane! In democracies sick leaders step down for treatment. In dictatorships they don't. The result is almost WWIII. What to do about this existential problem?
Quote from: 71 dB on January 04, 2023, 09:37:53 AMIn democracies sick leaders step down for treatment
Do they really? Name one.
Quote from: Florestan on January 04, 2023, 09:39:00 AMDo they really? Name one.
Maybe I am wrong and they don't, but I hope they do. President Kekkonen in Finland resigned 1981 due to dementia/health issues.
Quote from: Que on January 04, 2023, 09:17:54 AMThe outcome of this war is becoming increasingly more about the fate of Russia than that of Ukraine.
This is wishful thinking.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 04, 2023, 09:46:18 AMMaybe I am wrong and they don't, but I hope they do. President Kekkonen in Finland resigned 1981 due to dementia.
Well, according to Wikipedia, some Finnish historians and political journalists considered Kekkonen a power hungry autocrat who clung to Presidency for as long as he could and he considered resigning only after his health began to seriously deteriorate, and even so, he did not resign until quite a while after prim-minister Mauno Koivisto dealt him a mortal political blow by claiming that, constitutionally, the government were responsible to the Parliament, not the President. Kekkonen asked Koivisto to resign, which the latter refused. Both things were unprecedented in Finnish politics and precipitated Kekkonen' resignation. In this light, to claim that Kekkonen resigned because he really saw himself unfit to be the democratic President of Finland is an overstatement. He resigned because he was cornered and had no other option. Which is, imnsho, the only circumstance in which a politician resigns, be it in a democracy of a dictatorship.
Also from Wikipedia:
Kekkonen's authoritarian behavior during his presidential term was one of the main reasons for the reforms of the Finnish Constitution in 1984–2003. Under these, the powers of Parliament and the prime minister were increased at the expense of presidential power. Several of the changes were initiated by Kekkonen's successors.
Presidential tenure was limited to two consecutive terms.
The President's role in cabinet formation was restricted.
The President was to be elected directly, not by an electoral college.
The President could no longer dissolve Parliament without the support of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister's role in shaping the foreign relations of Finland was enhanced.Honestly, he doesn't seem to me like having been a principled democratic politician (to his credit, though, it must be noted that I know of no such a person in the whole history of mankind).
It's rule of law v. law of rule. An incapacitated ruler in a law state is subject to whatever arrangement the law has provided for that eventuality. Such occasions are not that rare, though it's usually a brief period like when a prime minister goes under general anesthesia and the next in line subs for the duration.
There's no such order in a ruler state. There is custom, along the lines of "kill Beria first, then we'll sort it out". That may apply at some point.
Quote from: drogulus on January 04, 2023, 10:06:10 AMAn incapacitated ruler in a law state is subject to whatever arrangement the law has provided for that eventuality. Such occasions are not that rare, though it's usually a brief period like when a prime minister goes under general anesthesia and the next in lines subs for the duration.
This is a very different matter from what 71dB and I were talking about.
Quote from: Florestan on January 04, 2023, 10:09:26 AMThis is a very different matter from what 71dB and I were talking about.
According to your post, it's the very same thing.
QuoteHonestly, he doesn't seem to me like having been a principled democratic politician (to his credit, though, it must be noted that I know of no such a person in the whole history of mankind).
Exactamente! Compare that with the procedure in a ruler state. Democracy is the system most skeptical of the inherent virtue of the Big Man. That's what the rules are
for.
Quote from: Todd on January 04, 2023, 09:49:13 AMThis is wishful thinking.
As usual... This war and its outcome will have a profound impact on Russia, mark my words. That doesn't mean that the impact will necessarily be positive BTW.
Todd's already-stale act would have been a gasser in 1944.
Quote from: Todd on January 04, 2023, 09:49:13 AMQuote from: Que on January 04, 2023, 09:17:54 AMThe outcome of this war is becoming increasingly more about the fate of Russia than that of Ukraine.
This is wishful thinking.
Maybe, but the war has been a fiasco for Putin:
- Quick victory and set up of puppet regime failed
- NATO not weakened; additional members added
- The EU not weakened or disunited
- Germany surviving and adapting to gas & oil shortages
- Russian economy greatly weakened by additional sanctions
- Government popularity weakened by the draft; significant out-migration by military-aged men
- Russian military resources significantly depleted by the protracted fighting
- Russian casualties having a negative effect on moral despite relentless propaganda lies.
How long can propaganda, suppression of free media, police bullying, and defenestration of critics keep Putin in power?
Quote from: drogulus on January 04, 2023, 10:24:20 AMAccording to your post, it's the very same thing.
It's most certainly not. Kekkonen did not have any surgery requiring sedation, after which he resumed his office. He was cornered into resignation. Apples and oranges, really.
Quote from: Que on January 04, 2023, 10:25:42 AMAs usual... This war and its outcome will have a profound impact on Russia, mark my words. That doesn't mean that the impact will necessarily be positive BTW.
The war will have a negative impact on Russia. It already has. You need to define what you mean by profound. It is unlikely that Crimea will be returned to Ukraine, for instance. Russia will face no diminution of territory recognized under international law. It is exceedingly unlikely that its form of government will be changed - and it certainly will not be changed by The West. It will not be removed from the UN Security Council. Its partnerships with certain countries (eg, China, India, Iran) will not be eliminated. It will be allowed to sell increased amounts of oil and natural gas after some period of time after the war. Russia will continue to enjoy direct communication with the US on some security matters. It may face reparations, but since the US will oversee settlement negotiations, there will be no European revenge a la the Treaty of Versailles. Maybe some people face war crimes trials, but it is very unlikely that Putin will.
What profound impact(s) do you predict?
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 10:37:03 AM- The EU not weakened or disunited
This is debateable.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 10:37:03 AM- Germany surviving and adapting to gas & oil shortages
This is more than doubtful. All industrial sectors in Germany have reported material declines in output. Germany is poorer now than a year ago.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 10:37:03 AM- Russian economy greatly weakened by additional sanctions
This is flat wrong.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 10:37:03 AM- Government popularity weakened by the draft; significant out-migration by military-aged men
The draft is always unpopular.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 10:37:03 AM- Russian military resources significantly depleted by the protracted fighting
Yes, Lloyd Austin explicitly stated that this was a goal of US imperial policy.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 10:37:03 AM- Russian casualties having a negative effect on moral despite relentless propaganda lies.
Sure, and the same applies to Ukraine, despite what Ukrainian propagandists say and write.
Quote from: drogulus on January 04, 2023, 09:33:16 AMI don't think Putin is going to get a better deal from the US than he has now.
Yes well I imagine he can also get good deals from India and China. Meanwhile, his chief concern ought to be a war he's fighting with Ukraine.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 10:37:03 AMHow long can propaganda, suppression of free media, police bullying, and defenestration of critics keep Putin in power?
History would suggest it will keep him in power until he dies. Worked for Stalin.
Quote from: Florestan on January 04, 2023, 09:58:25 AMWell, according to Wikipedia, some Finnish historians and political journalists considered Kekkonen a power hungry autocrat who clung to Presidency for as long as he could and he considered resigning only after his health began to seriously deteriorate, and even so, he did not resign until quite a while after prim-minister Mauno Koivisto dealt him a mortal political blow by claiming that, constitutionally, the government were responsible to the Parliament, not the President. Kekkonen asked Koivisto to resign, which the latter refused. Both things were unprecedented in Finnish politics and precipitated Kekkonen' resignation. In this light, to claim that Kekkonen resigned because he really saw himself unfit to be the democratic President of Finland is an overstatement. He resigned because he was cornered and had no other option. Which is, imnsho, the only circumstance in which a politician resigns, be it in a democracy of a dictatorship.
Also from Wikipedia:
Kekkonen's authoritarian behavior during his presidential term was one of the main reasons for the reforms of the Finnish Constitution in 1984–2003. Under these, the powers of Parliament and the prime minister were increased at the expense of presidential power. Several of the changes were initiated by Kekkonen's successors.
Presidential tenure was limited to two consecutive terms.
The President's role in cabinet formation was restricted.
The President was to be elected directly, not by an electoral college.
The President could no longer dissolve Parliament without the support of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister's role in shaping the foreign relations of Finland was enhanced.
Honestly, he doesn't seem to me like having been a principled democratic politician (to his credit, though, it must be noted that I know of no such a person in the whole history of mankind).
He was
re-elected multiple times. I was like 10 years old when this happened so...I was li--what I mean I did not know he hold to power that much because i was young I can't express myself today.
Anyway, maybe I WAS WROOOOOOONG AND THINGS ARE EVEN WORSE than I imagined!!!! Alarming if this is how it is even in democracies, but at least in a country like Finland people can be replaced in elections if need be, or so I have believed, but then again the world turned out super-crazy
News here today: Australia is buying an American missile system after the Ukrainians gave it rave reviews.
Anyway, Putins cancer has been cancerous to the world. Much more cancerous than the dementia of Kekkonen I would dare to say...
Quote from: Todd on January 04, 2023, 10:47:03 AMThe war will have a negative impact on Russia. It already has. You need to define what you mean by profound. It is unlikely that Crimea will be returned to Ukraine, for instance. Russia will face no diminution of territory recognized under international law. It is exceedingly unlikely that its form of government will be changed - and it certainly will not be changed by The West. It will not be removed from the UN Security Council. Its partnerships with certain countries (eg, China, India, Iran) will not be eliminated. It will be allowed to sell increased amounts of oil and natural gas after some period of time after the war. Russia will continue to enjoy direct communication with the US on some security matters. It may face reparations, but since the US will oversee settlement negotiations, there will be no European revenge a la the Treaty of Versailles. Maybe some people face war crimes trials, but it is very unlikely that Putin will.
In fact there is very little here I disagree with. But the other fact is that Putin's actions have only been harmful to the Russian Federation.
Typically war is costly and ultimately not worth it to the initiator; the Ukraine war is not exception. More broadly speaking Russian would be better off integrating with the rule-of-law world, (e.g. pursuing EU membership). The alternative of trying to befriend ruthless, criminal opportunist countries can work only in the shortest term. China for example will crush Russia underfoot when ever it suits the CCP/Xi's strategy.
Remember that the Russian Federation is
NOT a great power; only its nuclear capability makes it any sort of threat. Putin's dream of reconstituting the Soviet (or Tsarist) empire is futile and counterproductive for the Russian population.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 04, 2023, 11:54:02 AMHistory would suggest it will keep him in power until he dies. Worked for Stalin.
A valid point, but OTOH, the condition of Europe is much different today than was at the time of Stalin's death.
The USSR' decline after Stalin's death was long and slow
BUT consider that there was a peace throughout between it and the USA & NATO.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 12:32:59 PMMore broadly speaking Russian would be better off integrating with the rule-of-law world, (e.g. pursuing EU membership).
This once again demonstrates blinkered Eurocentrism. First, international law is a fiction. It is selectively enforced. Some powers can violate it with impunity. The US does so all the time. Look at the now twenty-year history of Gitmo, for instance. Second, the legalistic framework benefits those countries that established the existing (and decaying) international system. It hems in other countries like Russia, China, and India. By design. It is entirely unreasonable to assert that Russia would be better off joining the EU. Asserting that requires a belief in the objective superiority of Western systems, morals, and goals and necessarily ignores Russian interests and history.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 12:32:59 PMRemember that the Russian Federation is NOT a great power; only its nuclear capability makes it any sort of threat.
Russia is a great power. Its nuclear arsenal; its conventional military capacity, which while obviously not sufficient to conquer a US backed Ukraine, is sufficient to cause immense harm in a variety of strategically critical regions of Eurasia; its space capabilities; its energy resources; its membership in international organizations; and its political relationships make it a great power. Neither the US nor China have the military or economic capacity to dominate Russia, and each must factor in Russia when considering geopolitical policy. It is utter foolishness to pretend Russia is not a great power.
Quote from: Madiel on January 04, 2023, 11:53:27 AMYes well I imagine he can also get good deals from India and China. Meanwhile, his chief concern ought to be a war he's fighting with Ukraine.
The US is mindful of Russian nukes, so it will allow Russia to exist in a weakened state. The deal is the US continues to withhold "Moscow go boom" weapons and Russia leaves Ukraine on terms that are not exactly surrender and not exactly not either. The US guarantees Russia is not dismembered from a westerly direction. They get to drink themselves to death in peace, providing there's no "Last Hurrah" Chinese invasion.
Russia may not want its enemies to guarantee its existence. It's humiliating for a former great power to be reduced to such a deplorable state, to "please make my tiny little brother stop hitting me!".
Russia is now threatening a million Russians who left the country in the past year with some kind of punishment if they come back. Dig that hole!! Jump right in!!
Not for nothing but I watched a vid from 1420, a Russian dude who goes around asking Russians on the street naughty questions. He asked several people "do you own anything made in Russia?". What a prick!
Quote from: drogulus on January 04, 2023, 02:18:10 PMNot for nothing but I watched a vid from 1420, a Russian dude who goes around asking Russians on the street naughty questions. He asked several people "do you own anything made in Russia?". What a prick!
If you think this is funny, then guess what --- it's not.
Quote from: Florestan on January 04, 2023, 02:56:21 PMIf you think this is funny, then guess what --- it's not.
What if I think it's sad? I'm not sure if I would have the moral fortitude to answer "Tsar Bomba, asshole!".
Quote from: Todd on January 04, 2023, 12:46:27 PMThis once again demonstrates blinkered Eurocentrism. First, international law is a fiction. It is selectively enforced. Some powers can violate it with impunity. The US does so all the time. Look at the now twenty-year history of Gitmo, for instance. Second, the legalistic framework benefits those countries that established the existing (and decaying) international system. It hems in other countries like Russia, China, and India. By design. It is entirely unreasonable to assert that Russia would be better off joining the EU. Asserting that requires a belief in the objective superiority of Western systems, morals, and goals and necessarily ignores Russian interests and history.
Apparently you share similar delusions to Putin.
Russia today as an autoritarian kleptocracy with Putin as chief kleptocrat. For purposes of comparison there is no need to whitewash the USA or the West: what ever their failings they are an order of magnitude superior to Putinian Russia.
I absolutely believe in the objective superiority of Western systems, morals, and goals
versus Russia or China. They would be in Russia's interests; consist with Russia's and the Soviet Union's history, admittedly not.
Quote from: Todd on January 04, 2023, 12:46:27 PMRussia is a great power. Its nuclear arsenal; its conventional military capacity, which while obviously not sufficient to conquer a US backed Ukraine, is sufficient to cause immense harm in a variety of strategically critical regions of Eurasia; its space capabilities; its energy resources; its membership in international organizations; and its political relationships make it a great power. Neither the US nor China have the military or economic capacity to dominate Russia, and each must factor in Russia when considering geopolitical policy. It is utter foolishness to pretend Russia is not a great power.
Certainly Russia as the capacity to do a lot of harm; but how much
good is it able to do? That has gone untested so far, to say the least.
The USA doesn't have the intend to "dominate" Russia in anything like the way you are thinking of domination. As for China, that remains to be seen, but it is much more likely in the medium term.
Quote from: drogulus on January 04, 2023, 01:50:22 PMThe US is mindful of Russian nukes, so it will allow Russia to exist in a weakened state. The deal is the US continues to withhold "Moscow go boom" weapons and Russia leaves Ukraine on terms that are not exactly surrender and not exactly not either. The US guarantees Russia is not dismembered from a westerly direction. They get to drink themselves to death in peace, providing there's no "Last Hurrah" Chinese invasion.
Russia may not want its enemies to guarantee its existence. It's humiliating for a former great power to be reduced to such a deplorable state, to "please make my tiny little brother stop hitting me!".
Russia is now threatening a million Russians who left the country in the past year with some kind of punishment if they come back. Dig that hole!! Jump right in!!
Way to miss the point. Like Todd, you seem confused about who is actually fighting this war.
The weapons that the USA supplies to Ukraine are primarily a matter between the USA and Ukraine.
The war is being fought between Ukraine and Russia.
Both of those relationships have a country called Ukraine on them. A country you are conspicuously leaving out of the discussion. Stop treating it as just a geographical location and recognise that it has a government. Bloke called Zelenskyy is in charge.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 04:06:18 PMApparently you share similar delusions to Putin.
Incorrect.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 04:06:18 PMFor purposes of comparison there is no need to whitewash the USA or the West: what ever their failings they are an order of magnitude superior to Putinian Russia.
I suspect Iraqis, Libyans, survivors of the destruction of Raqqa, and many Yemeni would disagree. Probably some Serbians would disagree. Maybe some Sudanese. Possibly some people from every Central American country. Or maybe not.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 04:06:18 PMI absolutely believe in the objective superiority of Western systems, morals, and goals versus Russia or China. They would be in Russia's interests; consist with Russia's and the Soviet Union's history, admittedly not.
This is merely more blinkered Eurocentrism.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 04:06:18 PMCertainly Russia as the capacity to do a lot of harm; but how much good is it able to do?
That is an irrelevant rhetorical question.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 04:06:18 PMThe USA doesn't have the intend to "dominate" Russia in anything like the way you are thinking of domination.
You do not know how I am thinking of the word domination.
Todd accuses people of Eurocentrism in a thread about Europe while persistently trying to make it a thread about the USA.
Jesus wept.
Quote from: Madiel on January 04, 2023, 04:06:40 PMWay to miss the point. Like Todd, you seem confused about who is actually fighting this war.
The weapons that the USA supplies to Ukraine are primarily a matter between the USA and Ukraine.
The war is being fought between Ukraine and Russia.
Both of those relationships have a country called Ukraine on them. A country you are conspicuously leaving out of the discussion. Stop treating it as just a geographical location and recognise that it has a government. Bloke called Zelenskyy is in charge.
I don't see that I'm leaving anything out. If I'm not mistaken the US says what I say. Russia must deal with Ukraine. That's the only way the US will deliver safety to Russia, at least from the west. Safety from China is not in the cards.
I'm mystified that NATO security is somehow culturally offensive to Russians. Russia has tendencies of the "better to rule in hell" variety, to be sure. It's just that it seems a little bit stereotypish to treat Russia is incorrigibly Duginist.
Putin wants his invasion to be a war against the West and the chief devil and potential rescuer the US. I say no security guarantees should be given until Russia grants the Ukes their humble request to get the fuck out of their country or die in mass quantities. It seems fair to me.
I can't agree that liberal democracy isn't better than the alternative examples in question. We are all educated enough to be familiar with the litany of horrors perpetrated on the world by liberal democracies (I hope). Does that mean that free speech, free expression, individual rights are only good for some? Where Todd has got me thinking is the question of what good there is in imposing anything on anyone or to what degree one should try to do such a thing (or save anyone in the name of anything if these aren't ever just smokescreens). There definitely were times and places we can name but they seem few and in between (if those justifications can even be taken at face value). There's an arrogance factor that comes into play and there's the question of the MIC that Eisenhower spoke about. What is this game really about? Really? But there's a lot to weigh and, yes, it's complicated. I can't say Russia is better off joining the EU, especially seeing what a mess the EU has become. It's one more thing in which I no longer have such strong confidence. I do think it'd be better if Russia evolved into a liberal democracy of sorts but I don't think that's what this is about. The more I think about the EU as a suggestion, the more ridiculous it seems.
This war just seems like it can't have a good outcome. Can Russia lose AND be on a friendlier trajectory vis a vis the west? I certainly don't want it to "win" whatever that means. But I don't want it to be a desperate loser in disarray and confusion either. I don't know what winning and losing is but I hope it doesn't involve a more dangerous world.
Quote from: milk on January 04, 2023, 08:28:18 PMWhere Todd has got me thinking is the question of what good there is in imposing anything on anyone or to what degree one should try to do such a thing (or save anyone in the name of anything if these aren't ever just smokescreens).
Excuse me? You think that someone is trying to impose liberal democracy on Ukraine? Or Russia?
I'm sure it's an interesting question in the abstract. But it's very hard to see how it has any relevance to the current situation.
Quote from: milk on January 04, 2023, 08:28:18 PMWhat is this game really about?
The game is about weakening Russia and (collaterally) weakening Europe (economically and replace dependence on evil Russian gas with dependence on natural, clean, environmentally friendly LNG from the US). To save limited resources for the coming conflict with China. This already succeeded. Maybe someone will some day deservedly reap the whirlwind for this but maybe not.
QuoteThis war just seems like it can't have a good outcome. Can Russia lose AND be on a friendlier trajectory vis a vis the west? I certainly don't want it to "win" whatever that means. But I don't want it to be a desperate loser in disarray and confusion either. I don't know what winning and losing is but I hope it doesn't involve a more dangerous world.
Russia cannot lose. (Just like the US could not lose a fictitious war around Texas or New Mexico or a northern Mexican state with a Russian/Soviet supported Mexico.) They will rather lay the whole of Ukraine waste. The only chance for a not completely disastrous outcome would be negotiations with the Crimea, Donbass etc. staying with Russia and the rest of Ukraine in some quasi-neutral status East of full NATO membership. This must be done with both Russia and Ukraine/West saving at least some face. Otherwise it would only be a brief respite because the casus belli for Russia would remain.
Or Russia weakened thus that it would collapse but I don't think this will happen (I fear we'd get to full WW III before that) and it would certainly be even worse for everyone in Europe/Asia.
Quote from: milk on January 04, 2023, 08:28:18 PM...
Can Russia lose AND be on a friendlier trajectory vis a vis the west? I certainly don't want it to "win" whatever that means. But I don't want it to be a desperate loser in disarray and confusion either. I don't know what winning and losing is but I hope it doesn't involve a more dangerous world.
It's not about
Russia losing, it's about Putin and a small minority nostalgic for the Soviet empire losing. The notion that Russia somehow has a "right" to an empire or sphere of influence/domination is totally bogus; it is pathologically criminal and the most immediate threat to world peace and world prosperity as well.
As a face-saver for Putin, Ukraine giving up Crimea and, perhaps, some fringe of the eastern provinces might work. But Putin would regard it as a loss and would renew efforts towards his real goal, the
subjugation of Ukraine, and ultimately other former Soviet territories and satellites.
One might question whether EU membership specifically would be the best course for Russia, but one ought not to question that it would be in Russia's interest to join the democratic, rule-of-law order.
Quote from: milk on January 04, 2023, 08:28:18 PMWe are all educated enough to be familiar with the litany of horrors perpetrated on the world by liberal democracies (I hope).
I'd say this has been demonstrated to be false on this forum. Some posters pretend the US is "good" and Russia is "bad". China is presumably also "bad". India is a question mark. Yet in the post-war era, the US is directly responsible for more civilian deaths in foreign wars than any other country. The US routinely violates international law, killing civilians, falling afoul of international legal entities (review the entire case of Iran Air Flight 655, for instance), and just generally doing whatever. Look at the decades long drone war, only recently severely curtailed (but not ended) by the Biden Administration after the partial liquefaction of seven children at a wedding. The US assassinated innocent civilians from West Africa to Pakistan with impunity. Some baddies were murdered, too, to be sure. Don't get me wrong, that's what great powers do. The obscene thing is to pretend that said great powers are moral or good.
Quote from: Jo498 on January 05, 2023, 02:53:40 AMThe game is about weakening Russia and (collaterally) weakening Europe (economically and replace dependence on evil Russian gas with dependence on natural, clean, environmentally friendly LNG from the US). To save limited resources for the coming conflict with China. This already succeeded. Maybe someone will some day deservedly reap the whirlwind for this but maybe not.
In a nutshell. The thing is, it's the wrong grand strategy.
Quote from: Jo498 on January 05, 2023, 02:53:40 AMRussia cannot lose. (Just like the US could not lose a fictitious war around Texas or New Mexico or a northern Mexican state with a Russian/Soviet supported Mexico.) They will rather lay the whole of Ukraine waste. The only chance for a not completely disastrous outcome would be negotiations with the Crimea, Donbass etc. staying with Russia and the rest of Ukraine in some quasi-neutral status East of full NATO membership. This must be done with both Russia and Ukraine/West saving at least some face. Otherwise it would only be a brief respite because the casus belli for Russia would remain.
Or Russia weakened thus that it would collapse but I don't think this will happen (I fear we'd get to full WW III before that) and it would certainly be even worse for everyone in Europe/Asia.
Basically. Obama saw this, talked about it, and pursued policies informed by this. So did Trump, in direct confrontation with some of his advisors (eg, Pompeo). Biden has adopted the unabashedly hawkish neocon policy of the Bush years, which is no surprise since Biden has always been a hawk.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 05, 2023, 04:10:00 AMIt's not about Russia losing, it's about Putin and a small minority nostalgic for the Soviet empire losing.
This is patently false. It is ahistorical and contrafactual adherence to the great man theory of history.
Quote from: Todd on January 05, 2023, 04:35:56 AMQuote from: Fëanor on January 05, 2023, 04:10:00 AMIt's not about Russia losing, it's about Putin and a small minority nostalgic for the Soviet empire losing.
This is patently false. It is ahistorical and contrafactual adherence to the great man theory of history.
History has proven that individuals cans sway its course; there are numerous instances where "great" individuals have done so -- Alexander, Caesar, Hitler, and one might add, Lenin and Mao.
We may concede that Russia probably has a few Putin-wanna-bes who might take over from Putin in due course. Granted, Putin is not alone in his Russian imperialist dreams.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 05, 2023, 05:01:18 AMHistory has proven that individuals cans sway its course; there are numerous instances where "great" individuals have done so -- Alexander, Caesar, Hitler, and one might add, Lenin and Mao.
This is true, but only to a very limited extent. Biographers aside, many historians, and certainly the ones I have read for forty years, emphasize the circumstances and institutions surrounding so-called great men, and larger social, economic, and political trends, which all leaders must work in. I would not put Putin in the same category as any of those carefully selected and meaningless examples - not even Lenin. Simply considering extant conditions shows that. Putin is the most powerful figure of a declining power partly aligned with and partly at odds with a declining set of powers and social institutions, namely the west. The great man theory of history is fatally flawed.
Quote from: Todd on January 05, 2023, 05:24:33 AMThis is true, but only to a very limited extent. Biographers aside, many historians, and certainly the ones I have read for forty years, emphasize the circumstances and institutions surrounding so-called great men, and larger social, economic, and political trends, which all leaders must work in. I would not put Putin in the same category as any of those carefully selected and meaningless examples - not even Lenin. Simply considering extant conditions shows that. Putin is the most powerful figure of a declining power partly aligned with and partly at odds with a declining set of powers and social institutions, namely the west. The great man theory of history is fatally flawed.
"Great men" are, of course, enabled by their circumstance. And granted, Putin is a midget amount great men.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 05, 2023, 05:43:35 AM"Great men" are, of course, enabled by their circumstance. And granted, Putin is a midget amount great men.
The great man theory is typically preferred by those who prefer simplicity. You can freely disparage Putin, who is a bad man, but that does not change the other forces at work in this war, such as US foreign policy and the reckless, aggressive expansion of NATO which directly established the conditions that led to Russian aggression.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 04, 2023, 04:06:18 PMI absolutely believe in the objective superiority of Western systems, morals, and goals versus Russia or China.
That makes two of us.
Quote from: Madiel on January 04, 2023, 04:21:58 PMTodd accuses people of Eurocentrism in a thread about Europe while persistently trying to make it a thread about the USA.
Jesus wept.
Plus, Russia is itself an European country. Is then a Russophile an Eurocentric?
Quote from: Florestan on January 05, 2023, 06:53:21 AMPlus, Russia is itself an European country. Is then a Russophile an Eurocentric?
First, like Turkey, Russia is both European and Asiatic. Second, Eurocentrism is a belief system that holds that Western European values are superior - that is, it is a manifestation of cultural chauvinism. It is very common to hold Russia apart from Europe. Some posters in this very thread have done so (eg, Que). The characterizations of Russia in this thread and on this forum more broadly are that it is autocratic, brazenly imperial, does not adhere to the rule of law, and otherwise counters good contemporary Western values. In other words, Russia is an other.
Whether or not one believes in the superiority of Western views and ideals is ultimately irrelevant. Western views and ideals are not held by most of the world, and the slow, steady, grinding ascent of non-Western powers will diminish the influence of the west, erode so-called international institutions (they are Western in conception, design, implementation, and management), and lead to ever-growing tension between East and West, North and South, developed world and developing world, or whatever other terminology one wishes to use. Western views and ideals represent but one, non-universal outlook or set of outlooks.
Quote from: Todd on January 05, 2023, 07:21:39 AMEurocentrism is a belief system that holds that Western European values are superior
Atatürk and Reagan were Eurocentric, then. Live and learn.
QuoteThe characterizations of Russia in this thread and on this forum more broadly are that it is autocratic, brazenly imperial, does not adhere to the rule of law
Regardless of its characterization here, Russia is autocratic, brazenly imperial and does not adhere to the rule of law. Actually, it has always been so, some liberal reforms every now and then notwithstanding.
QuoteRussia is an other.
It is.
QuoteWhether or not one believes in the superiority of Western views and ideals is ultimately irrelevant. Western views and ideals are not held by most of the world, and the slow, steady, grinding ascent of non-Western powers will diminish the influence of the west, erode so-called international institutions (they are Western in conception, design, implementation, and management), and lead to ever-growing tension between East and West, North and South, developed world and developing world, or whatever other terminology one wishes to use. Western views and ideals represent but one, non-universal outlook or set of outlooks.
You seem to relish in the prospect but be careful what you wish for. The demise of the West might blow up in your face.
The US may supply LNG to Germany for awhile, until better arrangements can be made. It takes years and billions of fiat currency to build new pipes.
Why did weakening Russia suddenly become a strategy after Ukraine was attacked? What happened to the European effort to Build A Peaceful World?
It seems to me that Europeans have full agency when it suits them, and when their choice to peacemonger the shit out of relations with Russia goes to pieces, the fallback is Putin is an agent of US machinations to sell gas. I can understand how a stressful situation can result in a mental health crisis, but this isn't something that can just be passed over.
The US has to take some blame. After all we had Obama before we had TrumPutin. But that doesn't come close to excusing German policy over the last decade.
Quote from: Florestan on January 05, 2023, 07:32:28 AMAtatürk and Reagan were Eurocentric, then.
I've never seen anyone else claim that Atatürk was Eurocentric. Live and learn indeed.
Ronaldus Augustus was an unabashed believer in America as the shining city on the hill. That is something different than, and intrinsically superior to, bland Eurocentrism. He was also a bold Cold Warrior whose militaristic foreign policy is no longer needed.
Quote from: Florestan on January 05, 2023, 07:32:28 AMYou seem to relish in the prospect but be careful what you wish for. The demise of the West might blow up in your face.
I have never written that I wish for the decline of The West. I recognize that it is happening and that The West needs to adjust course accordingly. Really, I am only concerned for the US. Europe can fend for itself.
Quote from: Todd on January 05, 2023, 07:45:16 AMI've never seen anyone else claim that Atatürk was Eurocentric.
He believed that Western European values were superior to the Ottoman ones and tried to implement them in Turkey, by violence if necessary. By your own definition of Eurocentrism, he was an Eurocentric.
Quote from: Florestan on January 05, 2023, 07:49:05 AMHe believed that Western European values were superior to the Ottoman ones and tried to implement them in Turkey, by violence if necessary. By your own definition of Eurocentrism, he was an Eurocentric.
Westernization has had rather pronounced limits in Turkey, as evidenced by the multiple military coups, the oppression of various ethnic groups, the freedom of religion kinda, and so on. Call it Westernization with Turkish characteristics.
From NBC, so it's legit: Putin orders unilateral 36-hour cease-fire in Ukraine to mark Orthodox Christmas (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-russia-ukraine-cease-fire-orthodox-christmas-rcna64421)
And speaking of Turkey: Erdogan tells Putin ceasefire needed in Ukraine peace efforts (https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-tells-putin-ceasefire-needed-ukraine-peace-efforts-presidency-2023-01-05/)
Ukraine is not taking the bait of Putin's (Orthodox) Christmas truce...
Russia lost 800 men yesterday. The coming week freezing temperatures are predicted - the ground will soon be suitable for off road manoeuvres.
Quote from: Todd on January 05, 2023, 07:45:16 AMI've never seen anyone else claim that Atatürk was Eurocentric. Live and learn indeed.
I have never written that I wish for the decline of The West. I recognize that it is happening and that The West needs to adjust course accordingly. Really, I am only concerned for the US. Europe can fend for itself.
Given that you have no interest in the wider world, it's not surprising you're not aware of this aspect of Turkish history.
What is amazing, however, is your continued attempt to dominate a thread about a war in Europe given your lack of interest in Europe. Thank you for proving my point (while continuing to completely ignore me of course, that's quite interesting too).
Turkish secularism was Western, and so was Iranian secularism. They are largely urban phenomena. It's not unlike the divide between urban America and Trumpistan.
We could have a more enlightened idea of "Western", less beholden to geography and historical origin. That would require giving up on the notion that popular concepts around the world are being imposed by a giant Bat-Rat-Spider.
(https://cafans.b-cdn.net/images/Category_36098/subcat_188289/XSasLe3n_050218150420lola.jpg)
It's trying to turn me into a Rootless Cosmopolitan. I can feel it.
Quote from: drogulus on January 05, 2023, 02:10:25 PMTurkish secularism was Western, and so was Iranian secularism. They are largely urban phenomena. It's not unlike the divide between urban America and Trumpistan.
We could have a more enlightened idea of "Western", less beholden to geography and historical origin. That would require giving up on the notion that popular concepts around the world are being imposed by a giant Bat-Rat-Spider.
(https://cafans.b-cdn.net/images/Category_36098/subcat_188289/XSasLe3n_050218150420lola.jpg)
It's trying to turn me into a Rootless Cosmopolitan. I can feel it.
Where'd you find that picture of my ex? ( She was actually fun to hang with, but when we argued I'd wake up the next morning wrapped in silk. Plus, she was high-maintenance, with a shoe fetish worthy of Imelda Marcos... times four. )
Anyway...
There's been a lot of over-thinking here in discussing Putin's war on Ukraine. Much of this ( but not all ) is due to a single poster's continuous flood of irrelevant bullshit, i.e. trolling.
Therefore, l feel motivated to remind all that it is useful at all times to keep
what has actually happened in the forefront of our thinking, as opposed to expending energy reacting to the aforementioned bs.
It's really not hard to do. ;)
Quote from: LKB on January 05, 2023, 03:15:41 PMIt's really not hard to do. ;)
This is true. The US aggressively and recklessly expanded NATO, establishing the conditions that led to Russian aggression against Ukraine. In response, the US has allocated more than $100 billion to support Ukraine, Europe has pledged billions more, energy markets have been roiled, energy prices have shot up, Europe has become more dependent on the US for natural gas, weapons makers vastly outperformed the market, and regular people all over the world have had to face shortages of various resources. At least 7,000 and perhaps as many as 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have died, total military casualties have topped 200,000, and online hawks reflexively and immorally defend neocon policies, the continuation of the war, and the suffering of Ukrainians.
You couldn't pay me enough to invade Ukraine. Did NATO make Putin an offer he couldn't refuse?
Show me the Laptop. You know the one. I want the dick pics, the horses head, the whole thing.
Well apparently the US owns NATO and has the power to expand NATO. Who knew?
Apparently not Sweden and Finland who have been going through this tiresome process of getting agreement from every member. ::)
And all those countries that kept APPLYING for membership, often after holding referendums? No, turns out it was the Americans all along.
Todd yet again brings us a worldview where nothing actually happens in other countries.
QuoteJoe Biden and his German counterpart Olaf Scholz have agreed to send infantry fighting vehicles to help Ukraine fight Russia, a day after France said it would supply its own armoured vehicles to Kyiv in an attempt to create a breakthrough in the 10-month war.
Germany will also supply Ukraine with a Patriot air defence system, in addition to one promised by the US last month, the White House added. Both countries will train the Ukrainian military on the Marders and Bradleys, although it it was not immediately clear how many of each would be supplied.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/05/germany-tanks-ukraine-russia-war
Send weapons to Ukraine. Send money to Ukraine. Send money to weapons makers to replenish weapons stock and boost revenue and get that stock price up. Rinse and repeat.
Maybe together we can push Ukrainian civilian deaths north of 50K.
Quote from: Todd on January 05, 2023, 03:29:53 PMThis is true. The US aggressively and recklessly expanded NATO, establishing the conditions that led to Russian aggression against Ukraine. In response, the US has allocated more than $100 billion to support Ukraine, Europe has pledged billions more, energy markets have been roiled, energy prices have shot up, Europe has become more dependent on the US for natural gas, weapons makers vastly outperformed the market, and regular people all over the world have had to face shortages of various resources. At least 7,000 and perhaps as many as 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have died, total military casualties have topped 200,000, and online hawks reflexively and immorally defend neocon policies, the continuation of the war, and the suffering of Ukrainians.
Still quoting out of context, l see.
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 04:09:27 AMMaybe together we can push Ukrainian civilian deaths north of 50K.
Let's not pretend that is any of your concern....
Quote from: LKB on January 06, 2023, 04:11:04 AMStill quoting out of context, l see.
First, incorrect. Second, you care.
Quote from: Que on January 06, 2023, 04:15:04 AMLet's not pretend that is any of your concern....
You missed the point. People who strongly assert that they care are the ones who favor immoral pro-war policies that lead directly to the deaths of innocent civilians.
And once again, I will state that I care about Ukrainians exactly as much as I care about Yemeni, Syrians, Congolese, etc. Ukrainians have no special claim on my heart.
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 04:21:05 AMYou missed the point. People who strongly assert that they care are the ones who favor immoral pro-war policies that lead directly to the deaths of innocent civilians.
So did you. Accusing anyone that supports the Ukrainians in exercising their right to defend themselves of being immoral and calling them warmongers is insulting. You obviously missed the reports on the fate of ordinary Ukrainians under Russian occupation: torture, summary executions, the systematic abduction of children, the destruction of Ukrainian culture, rape and pillage. If the Ukrainians would be so much better off under Russian rule, I wonder why the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians choses to risk their lives and fight against the Russian invasion.
Blaming the Ukrainians and those who support them for the terrible consequences of Putin's war doesn't make any sense, no matter how much it doesn't suit your (domestic) political agenda.
Quote from: Que on January 06, 2023, 05:07:36 AMSo did you. Accusing anyone that supports the Ukrainians in exercising their right to defend themselves of being immoral and calling them warmongers is insulting. You obviously missed the reports on the fate of ordinary Ukrainians under Russian occupation: torture, summary executions, the systematic abduction of children, the destruction of Ukrainian culture, rape and pillage. If the Ukrainians would be so much better off under Russian rule, I wonder why the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians choses to risk their lives and fight against the Russian invasion.
Blaming the Ukrainians and those who support them of the terrible consequences of Putin's war doesn't make any sense, no matter how much it doesn't suit your (domestic) political agenda.
Reports of Russian atrocities, to the extent they are not embellished (and some are), are to be expected in war. Reports of Ukrainians committing war crimes (and they have) are to be expected in war. War is hell. Reasonable and moral people should favor pursuing policies to end the suffering of innocent people. This is especially true when the conditions for war were created from without, in this case because of the unnecessary actions of the most powerful country in the world and its vassals. Immoral warmongers rationalize and enthusiastically support and defend every bloodthirsty and cynical policy that prolongs the war and celebrate every seeming little victory of or boost to the brave people of Ukraine, ignoring that these events up the civilian body count.
Quote from: Madiel on January 05, 2023, 08:30:47 PMTodd yet again brings us a worldview where nothing actually happens in other countries.
If only he watched for example the Youtube videos of Americans who actually want to learn how things are in other countries he could see why his posts look so ridiculous here.
Here's one such Youtube channel: HailHeidi (https://www.youtube.com/@HailHeidi)
Things happen in other countries?
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/014/033/The_More_You_Know_0-0_screenshot.png)
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 04:21:05 AMYou missed the point. People who strongly assert that they care are the ones who favor immoral pro-war policies that lead directly to the deaths of innocent civilians.
In your spate of recent posts you've written extensively about the causes of the unnecessary violent death in Ukraine without mentioning the proximate cause, Russian aggression against the country's territorial integrity. Conspicuously absent form your lists of war mongers is the one human being most
directly responsible for all of the killing. Have you no shame?
There is no profit in it. People keep feeding the troll and provocateur with ammunition, so he keeps firing for the fun of it. Don't feed the troll and he will starve of depravation. If there is no air the fire will die out quickly.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 06, 2023, 06:52:15 AMIn your spate of recent posts you've written extensively about the causes of the unnecessary violent death in Ukraine without mentioning the proximate cause, Russian aggression against the country's territorial integrity. Conspicuously absent form your lists of war mongers is the one human being most directly responsible for all of the killing.
Incorrect. I have explicitly written multiple times that the US and NATO established the conditions that led to Russian aggression. You can go back and reread those posts. Or not. Wars of aggression are bad and they violate international law, for those who pretend that matters. Hope that helps clear up your confusion.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 06, 2023, 06:52:15 AMIn your spate of recent posts you've written extensively about the causes of the war in Ukraine without mentioning the proximate cause, Russian aggression against the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Conspicuously absent form your lists of war mongers is the one human being directly responsible for all of the killing. Have you no shame?
You've vilified everyone connected to the matter except Your grasp of causation in this matter is poor inept and insincere.
I must disagree, because he's proven his intelligence both in musical topics and in this thread.
One of his motives seems to be a simple desire for entertainment, as evidenced by his prior statements in political discussions a couple of years back.
Here, he argues the same way some lawyers argue in the courts. And those lawyers aren't concerned with the truth, they're concerned with winning for their client.
There have never been any formal agreements with Russia regarding NATO expansion as such. The only formal agreement which was made concerned Russian objections to the possible post- unification deployment of non-German NATO forces within the boundaries of the former East Germany.
Here's Gorbachev on the subject in 2014, excerpted from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/
" We now have a very authoritative voice from Moscow confirming this understanding. Russia behind the Headlines has published an interview with Gorbachev, who was Soviet president during the discussions and treaty negotiations concerning German reunification. The interviewer asked why Gorbachev did not "insist that the promises made to you [Gorbachev]—particularly U.S. Secretary of State James Baker's promise that NATO would not expand into the East—be legally encoded?" Gorbachev replied: "The topic of 'NATO expansion' was not discussed at all, and it wasn't brought up in those years. ... Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO's military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker's statement was made in that context... Everything that could have been and needed to be done to solidify that political obligation was done. And fulfilled."
Gorbachev continued that "The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years." To be sure, the former Soviet president criticized NATO enlargement and called it a violation of the spirit of the assurances given Moscow in 1990,
but he made clear there was no promise regarding broader enlargement. ( My emphasis - LKB )
Several years after German reunification, in 1997, NATO said that in the "current and foreseeable security environment" there would be no permanent stationing of substantial combat forces on the territory of new NATO members. Up until the Russian military occupation of Crimea in March, there was virtually no stationing of any NATO combat forces on the territory of new members. "
It seems that concerns regarding NATO expansion simply weren't a high priority for Gorbachev. Perhaps he understood that unlike his eventual successor, none of the NATO member governments had any imperial ambitions.
Quote from: LKB on January 06, 2023, 07:46:22 AMThere have never been any formal agreements with Russia regarding NATO expansion as such.
Of course not. Any such agreement would have only served to establish a slight and easily overcome impediment to the continued expansion of the American Empire. The US violates, ignores, and does not even bother ratifying treaties. Treaties are especially important to people who believe that international law acts as an effective check against great powers. It is unwise for other countries to trust the US when it signs treaties, much less when its senior leaders offer verbal assurances. That's just silly.
I do note that you do seem to care, despite your prior protestations to the contrary.
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 06:21:06 AMThings happen in other countries?
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/014/033/The_More_You_Know_0-0_screenshot.png)
And you want us to believe you're not trolling...
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 08:32:28 AMAnd you want us to believe you're not trolling...
There is a perfect inverse correlation between substantive argumentation and use of the word "troll" or any of its derivatives.
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 08:00:28 AMOf course not. Any such agreement would have only served to establish a slight and easily overcome impediment to the continued expansion of the American Empire. The US violates, ignores, and does not even bother ratifying treaties. Treaties are especially important to people who believe that international law acts as an effective check against great powers. It is unwise for other countries to trust the US when it signs treaties, much less when its senior leaders offer verbal assurances. That's just silly.
I do note that you do seem to care, despite your prior protestations to the contrary.
Still quoting out of context, and still evading the obvious truths.
Quote from: LKB on January 06, 2023, 08:36:34 AMStill quoting out of context, and still evading the obvious truths.
Incorrect. Again.
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 08:35:14 AMThere is a perfect inverse correlation between substantive argumentation and use of the word "troll" or any of its derivatives.
If you imply that that post of yours I called trolling was meant to have any substance worth of calm and rational discussion and was not calculated to trigger exactly the reaction it triggered (ie, it was not trolling), then you're insulting our intelligence. And it's not for the first time, I might add.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 08:42:34 AMIf you imply that that post of yours I called trolling was meant to have any substance worth of calm and rational discussion and was not calculated to trigger exactly the reaction it triggered (ie, it was not trolling), then you're insulting our intelligence. And it's not for the first time, I might add.
My post was very clear.
Quote from: LKB on January 06, 2023, 07:46:22 AMOne of his motives seems to be a simple desire for entertainment
Entertaining oneself by making deliberately provocative remarks on an internet board is the very definition of trolling.
What entertaining oneself by a topic involving war can be defined as, I left to you as an exercise.
Putin has got to be the worst vassal ever.
Another possibility is vassal theory is underperforming in the market of ideas. As influential as the US is, Putin and Zelensky still have considerable freedom of action.
I don't think NATO could force a reluctant Putin to attack Ukraine in the real world. One might say Germany sorely tempted him, and along with the success of Operation TrumPutin you could make a case that criminal negligence was a significant factor. That's not a good fit for vassal theory though.
Even Luka, who under vassal theory is little more than a wind up toy, seems to be doing everything he can to avoid committing Belo troops to a new attack. If vassal theory can't even explain the Clowntator, what good is it for Putin, Zelensky or anyone else?
Finally (I'm not promising anything) a theory that is used to explain any decision Zelensky or Putin makes, whether to fight or negotiate, or fight and negotiate, to make few concessions, many or none, isn't much good for anything. It explains everything and its opposite equally well, such as a war over by Christmas (pick one), a war that lasts for years (hah! It's exactly what Biden wants!), or a peace deal of any kind (designed to spark the next war and enrich the war profiteers).
Quote from: drogulus on January 06, 2023, 09:29:55 AMTrumPutin
Any comparison between Trump and Putin is moot until and unless you will name three political opponents or investigative journalists imprisoned or killed by Trump's (alleged) order and three nations previously under USA direct control that Trump waged war against.
Quote from: Harry on January 06, 2023, 07:10:15 AMThere is no profit in it. People keep feeding the troll and provocateur with ammunition, so he keeps firing for the fun of it. Don't feed the troll and he will starve of depravation. If there is no air the fire will die out quickly.
I suspect he is not so much a troll as a malicious neurotic.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 08:50:33 AMEntertaining oneself by making deliberately provocative remarks on an internet board is the very definition of trolling.
What entertaining oneself by a topic involving war can be defined as, I left to you as an exercise.
I mean what I write about the cause of the war, the potential consequences of the war, the pernicious nature of Eurocentrism, the exact moral equivalence of Ukrainians and Yemeni and other suffering non-European people, and the immorality displayed by warmongers. Entertainment is a byproduct.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 09:46:19 AMAny comparison between Trump and Putin is moot until and unless you will name three political opponents or investigative journalists imprisoned or killed by Trump's (alleged) order and three nations previously under USA direct control that Trump waged war against.
It's not a comparison. It's mutual interest. Putin wanted to weaken America, Trump wanted to be President. It's a perfect fit.
Quote from: drogulus on January 06, 2023, 09:52:32 AMIt's not a comparison. It's mutual interest. Putin wanted to weaken America, Trump wanted to be President. It's a perfect fit.
Is America weaker today than it was before Trump?
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 09:47:47 AMthe cause of the war
You surely meant to write "the causes of the war".
Quote from: Fëanor on January 06, 2023, 09:46:57 AMI suspect he is not so much a troll as a malicious neurotic.
What's the difference?
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 09:53:54 AMIs America weaker today than it was before Trump?
Using US GDP as a percentage of the global total, it was 24.21% as of 12/31/2015, and 24.16% as of 12/31/21. Using this metric, one can attempt to argue that Trump weakened the US, even though US GDP as a percent of the global total has been declining since 1946.
The DOD budget went from $633 billion in 2015 to $778 billion in 2020 (and $858 billion now), so it is hard to say that Trump weakened the US using this metric.
I should like to see how the US is weaker now than in 2015.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 09:56:45 AMYou surely meant to write "the causes of the war".
Yes, causes. All wars have multiple causes.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 09:53:54 AMIs America weaker today than it was before Trump?
TrumPutin failed. It was not popular outside the MAGAsphere, and I'll go out on a limb to surmise it was only a fairly small part of that group really committed to the notion of Putin as a White Christian hero.
Quote from: LKB on January 06, 2023, 07:46:22 AMIt seems that concerns regarding NATO expansion simply weren't a high priority for Gorbachev. Perhaps he understood that unlike his eventual successor, none of the NATO member governments had any imperial ambitions.
... Indeed.
NATO was always conceived as a defensive association whose purpose was to deter Soviet aggression. During the life time of the USSR it succeeded largely due to the rationality of the Soviet leaders.
With the collapse (under its own weight) of the USSR, newly freed former Soviet "republics" and satellites understood the instability of the new Russian politics, (probably much better than the USA), and accordingly clamored to join NATO. Subsequent events have proven this a wise decision.
As a former soviet
apparatchik, Putin is resentful of the collapse of the Soviet empire. Further he is romantic dreamer who, in his irrational hubris, hopes to reestablish that empire. Irrational romantics are inherently dangerous, but it will never happen.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 06, 2023, 10:03:48 AMSubsequent events have proven this a wise decision.
Subsequent events, meaning the aggressive expansion of NATO, established the conditions that led to Russian aggression and the death of thousands of innocent civilians. Online warriors defend this. It is truly bizarre to witness large scale war in Europe and to see people openly applaud the decisions that led to this.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 09:53:54 AMIs America weaker today than it was before Trump?
Trump didn't make America great again, but he made it a laughing stock. It takes decades to undo the damage of Trump's presidency, especially when Democrats are so weak and can do almost nothing. Trump's actions have weakened American democracy (which is effectively in a bad place to begin with) massively. We are witnessing this right now with the Kevin McCarthy show. The House of Representatives is in chaos who know for how long... ..and how about the documents Trump stole and planned to sell to foreign countries? How much has Trump exposed information endangering the safety of the US and its allies?
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 10:02:20 AMI should like to see how the US is weaker now than in 2015.
It isn't, by any stretch of imagination.
I will add one more metrics: the resilience of the US democratic institutions --- which proved rock solid during Trump's presidency and especially in its final months/days.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 10:29:31 AMI will add one more metrics: the resilience of the US democratic institutions --- which proved rock solid during Trump's presidency and especially in its final months/days.
That does not comport with the corporate press narrative, which holds that the republic nearly died two years ago today.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 06, 2023, 10:28:38 AMTrump's actions have weakened American democracy
They certainly didn't, see my reply above.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 06, 2023, 10:28:38 AMThe House of Representatives is in chaos who know for how long...
It is customary for Italy, Belgium or Spain to go for months with only a caretaker government because no agreement can be obtained for the composition of a new one. Are they less democratic countries than Finland because of that?
US share of GDP should fall in a richer world, and a richer world was the offer the US made for support against the USSR. If the deal worked the US would decline percentage-wise as the world got richer. It couldn't work any other way.
It was not an intrinsic part of the deal that the US made no adjustments to protect US jobs and incomes. That was a choice made by shrinksters of various ideological flavors, the same kind of thinking that led to the "expansionary austerity" monstrousity. Remember that one?
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 10:33:33 AMIt is customary for Italy, Belgium or Spain to go for months with only a caretaker government because no agreement can be obtained for the composition of a new one. Are they less democratic countries than Finland because of that?
It is strange that voting is now considered undemocratic.
Quote from: Todd on January 06, 2023, 10:36:00 AMIt is strange that voting is now considered undemocratic.
It all depends on the vote's outcome. If one likes it, it's perfectly fair, free and democratic. If one doesn't like it, it's the result of people being brainwashed and the voting should be repeated asap and as many times as possible, until one likes the outcome.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 10:42:25 AMIt all depends on the vote's outcome. If one likes it, it's perfectly fair, free and democratic. If one doesn't like it, it's the result of people being brainwashed and the voting should be repeated asap and as many times as possible, until one likes the outcome.
True. Similarly, an ideal justice system would prosecute criminals until the proper verdict is reached.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 10:33:33 AMThey certainly didn't, see my reply above.
It is customary for Italy, Belgium or Spain to go for months with only a caretaker government because no agreement can be obtained for the composition of a new one. Are they less democratic countries than Finland because of that?
You keep arguing for the sake of arguing. I am tired and I feel agitated. I stop for now and go do other things...
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 08:50:33 AMEntertaining oneself by making deliberately provocative remarks on an internet board is the very definition of trolling.
Living small.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 09:53:54 AMIs America weaker today than it was before Trump?
In terms of shaken democratic norms, yes. Nor are we out of the woods yet.
Macron has been criticized for his urging orcs and khokols to "all get along" as though that could be a thing. I don't see it quite that way. I think he'll take the opportunity to embarrass the Germans by employing performative peacemongery while sending some very cool kit to the Ukes.
On examination this wheelytank is a serious upgrade. The 105mm gun can take out Russian tanks and the vehicle should perform well in a variety of ground conditions. The US Bradley and German Marder are also on their way. These are not tank killers, they're infantry fighting vehicles. Taken together it's a serious increase in Ukrainian capability.
We're going beyond the "drip-feed to appease the Russian vassal" stage, perhaps giving up on his peaceful intentions.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 06, 2023, 11:05:39 AMIn terms of shaken democratic norms, yes. Nor are we out of the woods yet.
Yep! :(
Second year's anniversary today.... >:(
PD
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 10:33:33 AMThey certainly didn't, see my reply above.
It is customary for Italy, Belgium or Spain to go for months with only a caretaker government because no agreement can be obtained for the composition of a new one. Are they less democratic countries than Finland because of that?
The choas in those countries never threatened to end in imploding global financial markets.
The chaos in the US House does; especially since even when the current imbroglio is resolved, the chaotics will be better able to threaten the implosion when they have the opportunity.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 06, 2023, 11:05:39 AMIn terms of shaken democratic norms, yes
I beg to differ,
Karl. The democratic norms dictate that the POTUS be not above the law. Check.
I think that, on the contrary, Trump's Presidency has been beneficial for the American institutional democracy, because the former was incontrovertible evidence for the latter's being fully functional and strongly resilient faced with unprecedented challenges.
Quote from: JBS on January 06, 2023, 11:58:43 AMThe choas in those countries never threatened to end in imploding global financial markets.
The discussion is about democracy, not about (its effects on) global financial markets. The fact that voting may, and often does, result in chaos in Italy, Belgium and Spain does not mean the voting is less democratic than in Finland, where it always results in stability. The idea that the House of Representatives not being able to vote their leader on the first round is evidence of the weakened democracy of the USA is preposterous.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 12:07:58 PMThe idea that the House of Representatives not being able to vote their leader on the first round is evidence of the weakened democracy of the USA is preposterous.
It is not preposterous. It is a flat out lie. Circling back to the topic of this thread, Congress just recently passed The Consolidated Appropriations Act, which contains an additional $45 billion in support for Ukraine and NATO. More funds will be forthcoming later in 2023. If worst case/best case, the election of speaker takes longer than in 1856 (fingers crossed), then more aid will have to wait until sometime in March or more likely April, depending on voting priorities. In the normal course of business, it should come later than that anyway. The US government is funded and the executive branch is operating as normal. The US military and intelligence agencies will be able to provide support for Ukraine as needed. War will proceed unencumbered.
Quote from: Florestan on January 06, 2023, 12:07:58 PMThe idea that the House of Representatives not being able to vote their leader on the first round is evidence of the weakened democracy of the USA is preposterous.
The evidence we have is that in the wake of TrumPutin the electorate has less tolerance for strutting nihilists, an important factor in the underwhelming performance of MAGAts in the recent election. That's actually an indication of health.
EXPLAINED: Ukraine's New Weapons Bonanza (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6440)
Why are they only being sent now?
Western allies have been very cautious about which weapons systems they send, fearful of antagonizing Russian President Vladimir Putin and provoking a Russian response beyond the borders of Ukraine.
Macron is acting like he's the leader of NATO. The US might actually like having Macron being the first mover. Now the US can follow along and Germany can too. Each country had excuses for not moving. That's gone.
The bit about not antagonizing our delinquent friend in Moscow was too good to let pass.
Quote from: Harry on January 06, 2023, 07:10:15 AMThere is no profit in it. People keep feeding the troll and provocateur with ammunition, so he keeps firing for the fun of it. Don't feed the troll and he will starve of depravation. If there is no air the fire will die out quickly.
I'm still in this same spot of simply not understanding why the majority here seemingly thinks Todd doesn't honestly believe what he's saying, isn't expressing a rational and consistent, though obviously unpopular, point of view, and isn't trying to make a point. Furthermore, while I can understand that people find him caustic, I don't really get the desire to shut him down completely. Isn't it more interesting to argue his point and to prove him wrong than to just call him names or to try to freeze him out and ignore him? I mean, I see multiple people acting very upset and Todd totally unfazed repeating the same positions. And these positions are quite rational whether or not I can say I know enough to form a judgement (I still tend to like negotiations to happen while Russia is kind of losing and for Ukraine to maybe make some concessions to let Russia save a little face so the world can calm down but, hey, I really know nothing). The position that the U.S. guided the region towards this conflict is one that at least two big names (on the left I believe) have adopted so it's worth stating why you disagree IF you disagree. I do think people here could probably get to making more dispassionate arguments about the Ukraine and its history and why it's worth the fight and the blood. Isn't it true, for example, that Ukraine has suffered historical horrors under Soviet/Russian domination? So what is its historical imperative? But I think the big question to answer regards the necessity of U.S. money and weapons in this. That's a sober question. The fact that Todd takes no prisoners in his attitude really ruffles people too much and leaves people like me wishing to see the sober counter arguments being made by which to understand the fuller picture. Todd represents his view well. Don't kid yourself that there isn't a meeting of the far left and the libertarian-minded right and others. There are other views out there, even if they're barely represented here. It wouldn't hurt to entertain them if only to strengthen your own.
Quote from: milk on January 06, 2023, 10:39:57 PMI'm still in this same spot of simply not understanding why the majority here seemingly thinks Todd doesn't honestly believe what he's saying, isn't expressing a rational and consistent, though obviously unpopular, point of view, and isn't trying to make a point. Furthermore, while I can understand that people find him caustic, I don't really get the desire to shut him down completely.
Maybe if you weren't ignoring me completely, you would have seen some of my answers.
But because you're ignoring me completely, as is Todd, there is no hope of breaking out of this circle of you popping in and saying you don't understand.
Seriously. The last couple of times you've basically asked this exact same question I've tried to answer it. But as you're ignoring me you don't see the answer, and then you come back and just ask the exact same questions again.
Quote from: drogulus on January 06, 2023, 02:24:55 PMEXPLAINED: Ukraine's New Weapons Bonanza (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6440)
Why are they only being sent now?
Western allies have been very cautious about which weapons systems they send, fearful of antagonizing Russian President Vladimir Putin and provoking a Russian response beyond the borders of Ukraine.
Macron is acting like he's the leader of NATO. The US might actually like having Macron being the first mover. Now the US can follow along and Germany can too. Each country had excuses for not moving. That's gone.
The article doesn't really answer the question it raises: why now?
For France this is a major shift from Macron's initial approach to push for negotiations. Same for Germany, that has advocated restraint to avoid escalation - in the hope of a negotiated settlement.
What has changed is the realisation that Putin will not back down under any circumstance. Putin's continuous escalation and full scale attack on civilian infrastructure brought the message home that Putin rather destroys Ukraine entirely than make any concession.
France and Germany realised that the longer this war lasts, the more destruction and casualties on both sides there will be. The sooner this war ends, the better. Further Ukrainian military successes, like an attack on Crimea, might persuade Putin or any successor to make concessions after all, or not.
Quote from: milk on January 06, 2023, 10:39:57 PMI'm still in this same spot of simply not understanding why the majority here seemingly thinks Todd doesn't honestly believe what he's saying
Simple, what I write does not conform to their simplistic, (falsely) moralistic, neocon worldview.
Quote from: Que on January 07, 2023, 12:54:02 AMThe article doesn't really answer the question it raises: why now?
For France this is a major shift from Macron's initial approach to push for negotiations. Same for Germany, that has advocated restraint to avoid escalation - in the hope of a negotiated settlement.
What has changed is the realisation that Putin will not back down under any circumstance. Putin's continuous escalation and full scale attack on civilian infrastructure brought the message home that Putin rather destroys Ukraine entirely than make any concession.
France and Germany realised that the longer this war lasts, the more destruction and casualties on both sides there will be. The sooner this war ends, the better. Further Ukrainian military successes, like an attack on Crimea, might persuade Putin or any successor to make concessions after all, or not.
I don't think there's anything special about now versus then. Somebody had to move first. It wasn't going to be Germany as their policy is explicitly to follow the leader. The US position is to encourage the public to see NATO behave like Big Boys who can act in their own interest. Support for the alliance structure depends on the alliance being seen to function as intended.
The world knows Macron wants to be the guy. This is his moment and he won't throw it away.
Sometimes a cigar is a cigar. Ukraine has performed well beyond expectations and policy is more supportive. We've gone from an inevitable Russian victory to something very close to inevitable Russian defeat.
Remember the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage? Well, per WaPo:
No conclusive evidence Russia is behind Nord Stream attack; World leaders were quick to blame Moscow for explosions along the undersea natural gas pipelines. But some Western officials now doubt the Kremlin was responsible. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/)
But, but, but how can that be? Oh yes, the Ukrainians did it. They sent two 100 meter long+ ships to the area, controlled by NATO (ie, the US Navy directing naval and coast guard forces in the region), and done did blowed up the pipelines secretly. Yeah, that's what happened.
Good news for financially interested parties involved in the pipelines: Nord Stream 2 pipeline firm gets 6-month stay of bankruptcy (https://apnews.com/article/putin-politics-germany-government-ukraine-united-states-6d30ff829e31124c1ac054083736c02f). Alas, not being able to attribute blame will limit the ability to recover damages. That certainly was not part of the planning process. Oh well.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/01/05/how-elon-musks-satellites-have-saved-ukraine-and-changed-warfare
It is one of the wonders of the world — or, more accurately, off the world. The Starlink constellation currently consists of 3,335 active satellites; roughly half of all working satellites are Starlinks. In the past six months new satellites have been added at a rate of more than 20 a week, on average. SpaceX, the company which created Starlink, is offering it as a way of providing off-grid high-bandwidth internet access to consumers in 45 countries. A million or so have become subscribers.
And a huge part of the traffic flowing through the system currently comes from Ukraine. Starlink has become an integral part of the country's military and civil response to Russia's invasion. Envisaged as a celestial side-hustle that might help pay for the Mars missions dear to the founder of SpaceX, Elon Musk, it is not just allowing Ukraine to fight back; it is shaping how it does so, revealing the military potential of near-ubiquitous communications. "It's a really new and interesting change," says John Plumb, America's assistant secretary of defence for space policy.
Quote from: milk on January 07, 2023, 02:24:01 PMThe Starlink constellation currently consists of 3,335 active satellites
Is Musk a good billionaire or a bad billionaire? I can't remember.
...or is that once again giving him the credit for the work of others?
Quote from: Madiel on January 07, 2023, 12:17:28 AMMaybe if you weren't ignoring me completely, you would have seen some of my answers.
But because you're ignoring me completely, as is Todd, there is no hope of breaking out of this circle of you popping in and saying you don't understand.
Seriously. The last couple of times you've basically asked this exact same question I've tried to answer it. But as you're ignoring me you don't see the answer, and then you come back and just ask the exact same questions again.
Plenty of people responded last time. Yours may or may not have been the most perspicacious. It is roughly the same question because people roughly have the same reaction to Todd. We all have to pick and choose on what we spend time. I do try to read through what everyone writes and answer if I feel I have something worthwhile to say or if a comment cuts through. You want me to respond to you. Maybe later. Right now I'm off to a firefighters' performance at the park. My kids are champing at the bit!
But as far as I can see, many mainstream mavens, from Chomsky to Mearsheimer to the CATO institute to Kissinger see the U.S. as at least partially culpable here so Todd's view shouldn't be treated as something from another planet. I'd have to reread your comments.
Another Russian official, Magomed Abdulayev, a close ally of ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev died in suspicious circumstances. A car dying of radiation poisoning fell out of a window and landed on him.
Quote from: drogulus on January 07, 2023, 04:04:03 PMAnother Russian official, Magomed Abdulayev, a close ally of ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev died in suspicious circumstances. A car dying of radiation poisoning fell out of a window and landed on him.
Hate it when that happens...
Quote from: drogulus on January 07, 2023, 07:18:37 AMI don't think there's anything special about now versus then. Somebody had to move first. It wasn't going to be Germany as their policy is explicitly to follow the leader. The US position is to encourage the public to see NATO behave like Big Boys who can act in their own interest. Support for the alliance structure depends on the alliance being seen to function as intended.
The world knows Macron wants to be the guy. This is his moment and he won't throw it away.
Sometimes a cigar is a cigar. Ukraine has performed well beyond expectations and policy is more supportive. We've gone from an inevitable Russian victory to something very close to inevitable Russian defeat.
Here in Europe I think the prevalent line of thinking was that once Putin met tough resistance, he would back off. This is why sofar the focus of the military aid was on defensive weapons. This now shifts to offensive weapons, which required a mental shift particularly difficult for Germany. But it doesn't really matter, and you're correct that Macron took the lead. The French-German axis, as we call in in Europe, still works.
Quote from: drogulus on January 07, 2023, 04:04:03 PMAnother Russian official, Magomed Abdulayev, a close ally of ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev died in suspicious circumstances. A car dying of radiation poisoning fell out of a window and landed on him.
Jeez.. When Putin finally kicks the bucket himself, there won't be any oligarchs left! :o
Quote from: drogulus on January 07, 2023, 04:04:03 PMA car dying of radiation poisoning fell out of a window and landed on him.
Didn't you mean
person? Then again, a car landing on someone is far more deadly than a person landing on someone...
It's High Time to Prepare for Russia's Collapse (foreignpolicy.com) (https://biz.crast.net/its-high-time-to-prepare-for-the-collapse-of-russia/)
Indeed....
Quote from: Que on January 08, 2023, 03:04:26 AMIt's High Time to Prepare for Russia's Collapse (foreignpolicy.com) (https://biz.crast.net/its-high-time-to-prepare-for-the-collapse-of-russia/)
Indeed....
That's from Foreign Policy, arguably the most unabashedly hawkish specialist press outlet covering international relations. It routinely advocates for grossly immoral policy. That the author complains about Russia trying to install a puppet government in Ukraine while failing to mention that Zelensky is a puppet, and even received a purportedly prestigious title from Time for being an obedient puppet, demonstrates the bias.
What civilian body count will sate the bloodlust of hawks? 50K? 75K? Nah, it's gotta be six figures. 100K it is. Hawks are 100Kers.
Quote from: Todd on January 08, 2023, 04:53:09 AMThat's from Foreign Policy, arguably the most unabashedly hawkish specialist press outlet covering international relations. It routinely advocates for grossly immoral policy. That the author complains about Russia trying to install a puppet government in Ukraine while failing to mention that Zelensky is a puppet, and even received a purportedly prestigious title from Time for being an obedient puppet, demonstrates the bias.
What civilian body count will sate the bloodlust of hawks? 50K? 75K? Nah, it's gotta be six figures. 100K it is. Hawks are 100Kers.
Projection: such a sad psychological phenomenon.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 08, 2023, 07:26:27 AMProjection: such a sad psychological phenomenon.
This could be a good rejoinder if you possessed a proper grasp of the concept of projection.
Indeed, the combination of a failed war abroad and a fractious, strained system at home is making an eruption of some kind increasingly likely with each passing day. It doesn't matter if this is good or bad for the West, it is an outcome that policymakers must be prepared for. It would be immoral to prepare for the outcome. What part of
Don't Study War No More doesn't the author understand?
Quote from: 71 dB on January 08, 2023, 12:59:51 AMDidn't you mean person? Then again, a car landing on someone is far more deadly than a person landing on someone...
What?? Are you saying a
person crashed into an armored limo and killed the guy?
Can we be serious and study war just a little?
Shouldn't we get an answer from Trump- and TuckerPutinists concerning Russian peace advocates. Out of respect for the dead and those soon to be, aren't we keen observers owed an explanation for the lack of support for the most important anti-war faction on the planet?
Quote from: drogulus on January 08, 2023, 07:41:37 AMWhat?? Are you saying a person crashed into an armored limo and killed the guy?
Sorry, but I am totally confused of what you are trying to say. Cars, radiation poinsoning, Windows... I don't know what to make of that!
Quote from: 71 dB on January 08, 2023, 08:22:52 AMSorry, but I am totally confused of what you are trying to say. Cars, radiation poinsoning, Windows... I don't know what to make of that!
It's not your fault, buddy.
Ernie is characteristically oblique.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 08, 2023, 08:24:46 AMIt's not your fault, buddy. Ernie is characteristically oblique.
He certainly is!
Quote from: Todd on January 08, 2023, 07:40:45 AMThis could be a good rejoinder if you possessed a proper grasp of the concept of projection.
Good enough I should say: I'm thinking of you a being a psychological Russian puppet and projecting that on Zelensky.
In any case were he any kind of puppet, Zelensky would be much better a Western puppet than a Russian one. (Putin obviously wants to reduce Ukraine to a Russian puppet.)
Quote from: Fëanor on January 08, 2023, 09:08:28 AMGood enough I should say: I'm thing of you being a psychological Russian puppet and projecting that on Zelensky.
What does "thing of you" mean?
Zelensky is a western puppet.
Quote from: Que on January 08, 2023, 03:04:26 AMIt's High Time to Prepare for Russia's Collapse (foreignpolicy.com) (https://biz.crast.net/its-high-time-to-prepare-for-the-collapse-of-russia/)
Indeed....
QuoteThe bottom line is that it is irrelevant whether you are an optimist or a pessimist – we can only watch the drama of Russia's potential collapse unfold. Neither Western policies nor Putin himself can do much to stop this. That's because Russia is already beset by deep-rooted institutional crises, greatly exacerbated by the man who made Russia brittle and unstable and provided the potential spark for its demise: Putin.
Quote from: Todd on January 08, 2023, 04:53:09 AMThat's from Foreign Policy, arguably the most unabashedly hawkish specialist press outlet covering international relations. It routinely advocates for grossly immoral policy. That the author complains about Russia trying to install a puppet government in Ukraine while failing to mention that Zelensky is a puppet, and even received a purportedly prestigious title from Time for being an obedient puppet, demonstrates the bias.
What civilian body count will sate the bloodlust of hawks? 50K? 75K? Nah, it's gotta be six figures. 100K it is. Hawks are 100Kers.
You would have done well working for Goebbels some eighty years ago.
And who knows, there still might be openings within Putin's staff. You'd fit right in.
Quote from: LKB on January 08, 2023, 10:31:36 AMYou would have done well working for Goebbels some eighty years ago.
And who knows, there still might be openings within Putin's staff. You'd fit right in.
Godwin's Law again. And what appears to be a contemporary corollary.
At least you still care.
Quote from: Todd on January 08, 2023, 04:53:09 AMThat's from Foreign Policy, arguably the most unabashedly hawkish specialist press outlet covering international relations. It routinely advocates for grossly immoral policy.
It is a good piece, nuanced and well informed. And it hits the nail right on the head... in my opinion.
The desastrous end - for Russia - of its imperial war will have serious consequences, like many lost imperial wars before it.
Quote from: Que on January 08, 2023, 10:45:54 AMIt is a good piece, nuanced and well informed. And it hits the nail right in the head... in my opinion.
Foreign Policy's articles typically satisfy warmongers.
Zelensky has wide support from Ukrainians to continue the fight. The number I've seen is 85%.
Maybe the Ukes are only
mistakenly fighting for their country. Is that a thing?
I'm glad I asked. No, Ukraine is universally recognized as a sovereign nation, including by Russia.
What does it say about Putin that he allowed himself to be so completely out fought and out thunk by Pinnochio and his senile puppeteer?
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 08, 2023, 08:24:46 AMIt's not your fault, buddy. Ernie is characteristically oblique.
That must be it.
(https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
Okay, the claim that Zelenskyy is a puppet is truly the moment when we all know Todd has drunk the proverbial Kool-Aid.
The insistence that people in other countries have no independent will is some of the most embarrassing American exceptionalism I've ever seen.
Quote from: Todd on January 08, 2023, 10:49:06 AMForeign Policy's articles typically satisfy warmongers.
Oh... really? Very informative.
I guess you forgot euro centrics and wishful thinkers...
Quote from: Que on January 08, 2023, 12:30:01 PMOh... really? Very informative.
I guess you forgot euro centrics and wishful thinkers...
Foreign Policy devolved into a neocon/liberal interventionist journal starting in the 90s and is geared toward an American readership. Given that, it naturally appeals to certain types of Eurocentric readers overseas, who are prone to wishful thinking regarding the scope of the power of the "allies" and the types of change, starting with regime change, these powers can impose from without.
Clearly a lot of research has gone into FP's readership and how they feel about things.
Quote from: Herman on January 08, 2023, 06:31:52 PMClearly a lot of research has gone into FP's readership and how they feel about things.
The author is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark.
https://sasn.rutgers.edu/about-us/faculty-staff/alexander-motyl
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/07/russia-ukraine-putin-collapse-disintegration-civil-war-empire/
Quote from: Que on January 08, 2023, 09:35:54 PMThe author is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark.
I was talking about the GMG-er who apparently knows exactly who's reading FP and why.
Quote from: Que on January 08, 2023, 09:35:54 PMThe author is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark.
Generally speaking, international relations specialist journals publish articles by academics, politicians, and military leaders. All authors and all articles are biased. Publications tend to emphasize publishing articles that reflect a certain view. Foreign Policy was run by Daniel Rothkopf for five years. Mr Rothkopf worked for the Clintons.
The Long War in Ukraine
The West Needs to Plan for a Protracted Conflict With Russia (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/long-war-ukraine-russia-protracted-conflict?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The%20Long%20War%20in%20Ukraine&utm_content=20230109&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
Quote from: James Goldgeier & Ivo DaalderGiven the strong incentives on both sides to continue fighting, a third outcome is much more likely: a prolonged, grinding war that gradually becomes frozen along a line of control that neither side accepts.
Raytheon and Boeing stock ain't gonna boost themselves. It's looking like 100K dead civilians is an optimistic estimate. Hawks are 250Kers.
About the authors:
James Goldgeier is a professor of international relations at the School of International Service at American University
Ivo Daalder is President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs
I get that warmongers think we'll need a policy for the collapse of Russia, and peacemongers think it's bloodthirsty to even contemplate the eventuality.
It's clear that I was spot on. To study war, the outcome of war, or whatever is next to war in a dictionary or encyclopedia is itself evidence of bloodthirstyness.
It's Don't Study War No More for any purpose, Morbius!
(https://live.staticflickr.com/4773/39702434325_eb1c850dd5_b.jpg)
How come Russia conducts war but doesn't appear to harbor warmongers? How they do that?
Quote from: drogulus on January 09, 2023, 08:35:30 AMHow come Russia conducts war but doesn't appear to harbor warmongers? How they do that?
They're just peaceniks being bullied by those Ukrainian Nazis.
Quote from: Todd on January 09, 2023, 06:22:52 AMThe Long War in Ukraine
The West Needs to Plan for a Protracted Conflict With Russia (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/long-war-ukraine-russia-protracted-conflict?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The%20Long%20War%20in%20Ukraine&utm_content=20230109&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
About the authors:
James Goldgeier is a professor of international relations at the School of International Service at American University
Ivo Daalder is President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs
This a more rational and reasonable article than the one about Russia's facing inevitable disintegration in the foreseeable future.
Quote from: Florestan on January 09, 2023, 09:10:55 AMThis a more rational and reasonable article than the one about Russia's facing inevitable disintegration in the foreseeable future.
To a great extent, yes, but it includes the phrase "evil empire" and it also includes a passage about Russia minding its own business. Such writing is either perfectly cynical or perfectly lacking in self-awareness. My bet is on the former. Current US policy is based on an expectation of protracted war. This has not been hidden in any way.
Russia has its stealth fighters at a base from which strikes against Ukraine are launched. Thinky warmongers say the SU-57 doesn't fly over Ukraine and just launches missiles from Russian territory.
The SU-57 is not terribly impressive by 5th gen standards. The Chinese stealth jet is better.
Russia only has 10 of these fighters. They're supposed to have more than 70 eventually. The problem Russia is having is they can make very good planes and tanks in small numbers but can only produce at scale if foreign buyers fund their production.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmAtogBXoAE3B2z?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmAsyUrWYAUEwBs?format=jpg&name=medium)
Quote from: Florestan on January 09, 2023, 09:10:55 AMThis a more rational and reasonable article than the one about Russia's facing inevitable disintegration in the foreseeable future.
Sure, extrapolation of the current situation - an assumed military stalemate - is "rational and reasonable", but not very interesting as it offers only a short term view with a limited scope. Could be yesterday's news next week or next month.
Quote from: Que on January 09, 2023, 10:45:29 AMextrapolation of the current situatio
That's exactly what the other article does, too --- but its speculative elements are more numerous. I mean, come on, Russia's imminent disintegration has been announced repeteadly ever since the Russo-Japanese War, and what really happened is that of all the empires which had disintegrated after WWI, the Russian one is the only one which was reconstituted almost in its entirety. I think any notion that Russia will somehow disintegrate in any foreseeable future is at best wishful thinking and at worst delusional. Unfortunately, Russia is here to stay.
Quote from: Que on January 09, 2023, 10:45:29 AMbut not very interesting
Proper analyses may not be very interesting. Articles heavy on wishful thinking may be very interesting.
People have been predicting the imminent collapse of Russia since last February, the imminent demise of Putin for as long, etc.
Is there an article about the inevitability of Russian disintegration? I just saw the article about preparing for the possibility so we wouldn't be caught off guard like with the not very inevitable collapse of the Soviet Union.
A different tack would be mine. We are preparing. The lesson has been learned. The West is building bridges to the Stans and not just for oil and gas.
No matter how intense the speculation on Putin is, what happens will be a surprise. That's how it usually goes.
Somebody will say "I knew it" and everyone else will say "sure you did". It's like predicting the next recession. I predict there will be a next recession.
Quote from: Todd on January 09, 2023, 11:19:40 AMProper analyses may not be very interesting. Articles heavy on wishful thinking may be very interesting.
People have been predicting the imminent collapse of Russia since last February, the imminent demise of Putin for as long, etc.
The article doesn't predict an imminent collapse, but points out that the stability and position of Russia is becoming increasingly precarious, and describes different possible scenarios from a political-historical perspective.
There is nothing wishful thinking about it - an unstable, desintigrating Russia could be a very dangerous situation.
Quote from: Que on January 09, 2023, 12:40:14 PMThe article doesn't predict an imminent collapse, but points out that the stability and position of Russia is becoming increasingly precarious, and describes different possible scenarios from a political-historical perspective.
There is nothing wishful thinking about it - an unstable, desintigrating Russia could be a very dangerous situation.
I did not write that the article contained that assertion, but rather that those types of claims have been made for eleven months now. Well, longer actually. Russia is always on the verge of some great calamity. Wishful thinking is common. I suggest reading additional articles that contain different analyses, and not just analyses you prefer. Perhaps consider various articles or interviews with Angela Stent. She even gets published in Foreign Policy.
Quote from: Todd on January 09, 2023, 12:47:31 PMI did not write that the article contained that assertion, but rather that those types of claims have been made for eleven months now. Well, longer actually. Russia is always on the verge of some great calamity. Wishful thinking is common. I suggest reading additional articles that contain different analyses, and not just analyses you prefer. Perhaps consider various articles or interviews with Angela Stent. She even gets published in Foreign Policy.
Interesting you mention her. Here is a interview with her from a few days ago.
Takeaways: Putin is a threat to Eastern Europe; the attack on Ukraine was unprovoked and not triggered by NATO or NATO expansion; Biden has done a good job and so has Zelensky; and since Putin has no intention to give up this war will probably continue in 2023. Does all sound quite sensible but not very much up your alley.
https://lithub.com/why-2023-probably-wont-bring-an-end-to-the-war-in-ukraine/
Quote from: Que on January 09, 2023, 01:39:58 PMInteresting you mention her. Here is a interview with her from a few days ago.
Takeaways: Putin is a threat to Eastern Europe; the attack on Ukraine was unprovoked and not triggered by NATO or NATO expansion; Biden has done a good job and so has Zelensky; and since Putin has no intention to give up this war will probably continue in 2023. Does all sound quite sensible but not very much up your alley.
https://lithub.com/why-2023-probably-wont-bring-an-end-to-the-war-in-ukraine/
She's a conventional institutionalist, so she toes the warmonger line. (Unlike you, I prefer to read and hear all sides.) Her greater insights come in the realm of economics. The reason I cited her specifically is because she has been clear that sanctions have not been as damaging to Russia as wishful thinkers claim, collapse is not imminent or even in the cards in the near term, that this year is when the sanctions will begin to hurt more - but so will the results of Russia's energy policies in Europe. 2023 will be worse than 2022. She and her husband (Daniel Yergin) give more sober takes to investors trying to plan for the future.
Quote from: Que on January 09, 2023, 01:39:58 PMDoes all sound quite sensible but not very much up your alley.
That's a fairly civilized way of putting it.
(https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
Quote from: Que on January 09, 2023, 01:39:58 PMInteresting you mention her. Here is a interview with her from a few days ago.
Takeaways: Putin is a threat to Eastern Europe; the attack on Ukraine was unprovoked and not triggered by NATO or NATO expansion; Biden has done a good job and so has Zelensky; and since Putin has no intention to give up this war will probably continue in 2023. Does all sound quite sensible but not very much up your alley.
https://lithub.com/why-2023-probably-wont-bring-an-end-to-the-war-in-ukraine/
It seems like this really is a matter of how you're phrasing it. I mean, would you disagree with Chomsky on this? Perhaps this is just semantics at this point.
To wit:
Chomsky told us that it "should be clear that the (Russian) invasion of Ukraine has no (moral) justification." He compared it to the US invasion of Iraq, seeing it as an example of "supreme international crime." With this moral question settled, Chomsky believes that the main 'background' of this war, a factor that is missing in mainstream media coverage, is "NATO expansion."
"This is not just my opinion," said Chomsky, "it is the opinion of every high-level US official in the diplomatic services who has any familiarity with Russia and Eastern Europe. This goes back to George Kennan and, in the 1990s, Reagan's ambassador Jack Matlock, including the current director of the CIA; in fact, just everybody who knows anything has been warning Washington that it is reckless and provocative to ignore Russia's very clear and explicit red lines. That goes way before (Vladimir) Putin, it has nothing to do with him; (Mikhail) Gorbachev, all said the same thing. Ukraine and Georgia cannot join NATO, this is the geostrategic heartland of Russia."
From https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/06/25/not-justification-provocation-chomsky-root-causes-russia-ukraine-war
Lula is now unquestionably a hero, a world leader of great renown, a man of principle. Let us see what he said about Ukraine earlier this year:
Brazil's ex-president Lula claims Zelenskiy equally to blame for war
Lula, who is leading President Bolsonaro in polls, also said Biden and EU are guilty and could have stated Ukraine would not join Nato (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/04/brazil-lula-zelenskiy-blame-war)
Quote from: LulaPutin shouldn't have invaded Ukraine. But it's not just Putin who is guilty. The US and the EU are also guilty
Like the Russians, Brazilians should just mind their own business, amiright? And just what the hell does he think he is doing, calling for peace while meeting with Russian and Ukrainian leaders.
Keep fighting.
No negotiations.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 10, 2023, 04:57:42 AMBut getting their facts right would be a good first move.
The white man's burden is a heavy one.
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 03:34:09 AMincluding the current director of the CIA
This is a reference to William Burns. His warnings against Ukrainian NATO membership were dropped by WikiLeaks. Below is a link to a short article from The Atlantic (I think that is considered credible) from way back in 2019. No one could have foreseen trouble from reckless, aggressive expansion of NATO, openly endorsed in the Joint Statement on the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership from September 1, 2021.
A Brief History of U.S.-Russian Missteps Bill Burns revisits NATO enlargement and other stories from a relationship gone bad. (https://www.theatlantic.com/membership/archive/2019/03/a-brief-history-of-us-russian-missteps/584542/)
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 10, 2023, 04:57:42 AMThe article to which you refer also says this: "The United States has a lot of political clout. And Biden could have avoided war, not incited it," [Lula] said. "Biden could have taken a plane to Moscow to talk to Putin. This is the kind of attitude you expect from a leader."
Yet what did Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/) report on December 10th 2021: "Biden and Zelenskiy had a call two days after Biden held talks (https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/biden-putin-set-crucial-call-over-ukraine-2021-12-07) with Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to defuse a crisis over Russian troop movements near Ukraine's borders." The link in that quote goes on to explain that Biden had two hours of 'virtual' talks with Putin on December 7th that year. So, in fact, Biden did do precisely what Lula said he should have done, short only of actually wasting many hours by taking a plane.
The article you cite also has Lula saying: "The US and EU could have avoided the invasion by stating that Ukraine would not join Nato". Whereas what Biden actually said was, "(I) stand(s) by the proposition that countries should be able to freely choose who they associate with" or, as Zelensky put it, "President Biden said very clearly that the decision on Ukraine's accession to NATO is the decision of the Ukrainian people only, this is a sovereign and independent Ukrainian state," he said. "And it depends on Ukraine and NATO members." Which is correct: the EU has no say whatsoever in who joins NATO, since the EU isn't a NATO member.
So, no: Brazilians shouldn't "just mind their own business", so youarewrong. But getting their facts right would be a good first move.
Nevermind that if Biden turned round and told Brazil that they couldn't buy oil from, say, Venezuela; or had to buy all future airliners from Boeing, I am sure cries of 'Gringo Imperialsm' would flow swiftly at the temerity of Biden telling a sovereign nation what it can and can't do. Yet, apparently, Biden is supposed to have imposed his will on Ukraine because... reasons?
So, not being quite so hypocritical would be a good second move on their part, too.
This seems to me to be a lot of unintentional motte and bailey type stuff. I'll say this again: I'm against Russia (basically) but I'm not against reality and facts. I'll say this again: I don't know much about the politics and history of the region in general but you seem to be avoiding something that I'm seeing clearly from Chomsky (as in here for example:
https://rozenbergquarterly.com/chomsky-us-approach-to-ukraine-and-russia-has-left-the-domain-of-rational-discourse/)
Are you seeing it? The motte is that U.S. policy is merely based on not wanting to deny the Ukraine's sovereignty and right to join organizations that will have it. It's so innocent. Nothing more.
What's the bailey?
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 06:09:56 AMThe motte is that U.S. policy is merely based on not wanting to deny the Ukraine's sovereignty and right to join organizations that will have it. It's so innocent. Nothing more.
It is much, much more. It is good. It is righteous. It is another example, to borrow Jimmy Sciutto's comment so recently used, of the US exporting democracy. But it goes beyond that, really. The US is exporting and defending Western Civilization itself. The US is a defender of the faith in a world of heathens. The crusade cannot, must not, be stopped.
And it is so blindingly obvious that one of the gravest impediments to this crusade is Russia. Russia is evil. Putin more so. As the article I linked yesterday so honestly and righteously described, Russia is an evil empire. It desires nothing short of the destruction of Democracy (which should always have a big D). For all we know, Putin and Kirill may be paving the way for the rule of Satan hisself. Heavens! So pernicious is Russia, so devious, so clever, so all-powerful, that they have figured out a way to directly influence NYU researchers still combing over 2016 election results. It is a blatant lie that Russia is a declining power, one with a shrinking population, much lower than average life expectancy, and GDP one twelfth of the US. It is an ascendant power, more powerful than ever, lusting for ever greater control over the lives of every person on earth. It must be stopped now, here, in this time and in this war, and forever vanquished. For without achieving these righteous ends, human civilization is in peril.
And then, you know, there's China.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 10, 2023, 06:35:55 AMIE, Lula was uninformed and hypocritical (in the article that was originally quoted, at least).
Lula should read GMG. That would set him straight.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 10, 2023, 04:57:42 AMThe article to which you refer also says this: "The United States has a lot of political clout. And Biden could have avoided war, not incited it," [Lula] said. "Biden could have taken a plane to Moscow to talk to Putin. This is the kind of attitude you expect from a leader."
...
The article you cite also has Lula saying: "The US and EU could have avoided the invasion by stating that Ukraine would not join Nato". Whereas what Biden actually said was, "(I) stand(s) by the proposition that countries should be able to freely choose who they associate with" or, as Zelensky put it, "President Biden said very clearly that the decision on Ukraine's accession to NATO is the decision of the Ukrainian people only, this is a sovereign and independent Ukrainian state," he said. "And it depends on Ukraine and NATO members." Which is correct: the EU has no say whatsoever in who joins NATO, since the EU isn't a NATO member.
...
Again and with emphasis: The "NATO is a threat to Russia" narrative is complete BS; no concession ought to be made to placate Russia. NATO has never been a
threat to Russia
except in so far as it might interfere with Russian expansionary ambitions.
Putin is a particularly nasty example of the combination of a personal power-hungry dictator with a romantic nationalist with hegemonic ambitions. The only relevant strategy in such a case is resistance.
Given this reality, it is unlikely that promising to keep Ukraine out of NATO (and/or the EU), (as suggested by Lula), would have prevented the Russian invasion. The Russian (
i.e. Putin's) goal is
not mitigating a NATO threat, it is hegemonic domination of eastern Europe and the weakening of liberal democracy.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 10, 2023, 06:54:14 AMThe "NATO is a threat to Russia" narrative is complete BS; no concession ought to be made to placate Russia. NATO has never been a threat to Russia except in so far as it might interfere with Russian expansionary ambitions.
Putin is a particularly nasty example of the combination of a personal power-hungry dictator with a romantic nationalist with hegemonic ambitions. The only relevant strategy in such a case is resistance.
Given this reality, it is unlikely that promising to keep Ukraine out of NATO (and/or the EU), (as suggested by Lula), would have prevented the Russian invasion. The Russian (i.e. Putin's) goal is not mitigating a NATO threat, it is hegemonic domination of eastern Europe and the weakening of liberal democracy.
Pro-war propaganda works.
I have no doubt that expanding NATO by admitting Soviet Socialist Republics would provoke the USSR.
Ukraine and Georgia can't join NATO, didn't and won't. I think that was where we stood in Feb. '22.
We need a Chomsky for what everyone knows?
Now we have the war, caused by Russian expansion and not a provocation that didn't happen. Now Russia gets more of what it doesn't want. Putin gets more NATO than he could have imagined.
Russia violates agreements and launches a war of conquest in Ukraine. I think that's a provocation. I don't know if you could say Russia has been warned that that would obliterate any previous understandings. I'm going to say yes.
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 06:09:56 AMThis seems to me to be a lot of unintentional motte and bailey type stuff. I'll say this again: I'm against Russia (basically) but I'm not against reality and facts. I'll say this again: I don't know much about the politics and history of the region in general but you seem to be avoiding something that I'm seeing clearly from Chomsky (as in here for example:
https://rozenbergquarterly.com/chomsky-us-approach-to-ukraine-and-russia-has-left-the-domain-of-rational-discourse/)
Are you seeing it? The motte is that U.S. policy is merely based on not wanting to deny the Ukraine's sovereignty and right to join organizations that will have it. It's so innocent. Nothing more.
What's the bailey?
Slow-witted me: I really don't get the motte+bailey analogy. But indeed, US policy isn't "merely based on not wanting to deny the Ukraine's sovereignty and right to join organizations". It's about preventing Russian imperialist ambitions.
Please avoid drawing a stupid false equivalency of US ambitions and Russian ambitions: they are miles apart. The USA is, at least, still a liberal democracy; Russia never was and isn't. If American intentions aren't always totally altruistic or benign, Russia's (under Putin) are any but.
As for Chomsky, he should stick to theoretical linguistics. BTW, in that field too he is considered rather eccentric.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 10, 2023, 06:59:57 AMChomsky should stick to theoretical linguistics. BTW, in that field too he is considered rather eccentric.
I believe this is an ad hominem fallacy. That is common on the internet, and ultimately there's nothing wrong with it, though it does definitively demonstrate that the author is not interested in debate. That, too, is fine.
Of course we could continue to warp the space/time continuum and hypothesize about Finland and Sweden.
One day Ukraine and Georgia may in fact be in NATO as a defense against imperial Kazahk designs, or just because, my favorite reason. Who can say>
I don't think it's up to the US or Russia what values Ukraine imports.
Perhaps the Tatars Stalin deported from Crimea will be allowed to return. Will they bring Russian values with them?
Zelensky wasn't in office when Russia illegally annexed chunks of Ukraine and Tatarstan (oh, I meant to say Crimea).
Quote from: Todd on January 10, 2023, 06:56:16 AMPro-war propaganda works.
For sure, and MSM is all "fake news".
Quote from: Todd on January 10, 2023, 07:03:17 AMI believe this is an ad hominem fallacy. That is common on the internet, and ultimately there's nothing wrong with it, though it does definitively demonstrate that the author is not interested in debate. That, too, is fine.
Ad hominem? Not really: I'm saying the Chomsky's celebrity doesn't lend weight to his opinions outside his field of expertise or make them necessarily better than yours, or mine, or Prince Harry's.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 10, 2023, 08:21:25 AMFor sure, and MSM is all "fake news".
Corporate press is a more accurate description. Generally speaking, most corporate press outlets report basic facts properly - even Fox and MSNBC do this properly - but then most of them follow tried and true propaganda techniques. Placement of stories in print or broadcast; not covering stories (a perfect current example is the complete blackout of Twitter stories on broadcast and cable news); op-ed selection; panel guest selection (including a disproportionately high number of intelligence and security officials); reliance on national and/or racial stereotypes (eg, use of language regarding "tribalism"), and so forth. The corporate press in the English-speaking world has been shamefully pro-war. There is more skepticism in some French and German outlets, for instance, and much more in various Asian outlets. Cultural chauvinism and outright racism play a critical role in determining which outlets people turn to. The stifling stranglehold that the corporate press has over many or most people is obvious.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 10, 2023, 08:25:53 AMAd hominem? Not really
Your prior post on the topic was the very definition of an ad hominem attack.
I note TrumPutinist propaganda had considerable overlap with White Christian and Qanon affiliation.
The mainstream media won't tell you this, but people who think the "mainstream media won't tell you such and such" deserve all the truthyness Chomsky and the like can dish out.
No one has an excuse for not understanding how Putin is reading Russian history. He makes speeches about it. He feels justified in waging war to recapture the Czarist empire.
In spite of peacemonger propaganda to the contrary, if an aggressor wages war, the war is a fact. Acknowledging that fact doesn't make you any kind of monger, it just makes you sentient. It's a war even if the "mainstream" says so.
I'm not sure if Biden was attempting to prevent Putin from invading Ukraine (again) or trying to lure him into a war with the West. Somebody please say something in Chomsky to clear this issue up.
Don't forget to factor "imperialism" in as a negative for the US and as a default positive for Russia. You hardly even have to say the last bit, and upon reflection you'd better not.
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 03:34:09 AMIt seems like this really is a matter of how you're phrasing it. I mean, would you disagree with Chomsky on this? Perhaps this is just semantics at this point.
To wit:
Chomsky told us that it "should be clear that the (Russian) invasion of Ukraine has no (moral) justification." He compared it to the US invasion of Iraq, seeing it as an example of "supreme international crime." With this moral question settled, Chomsky believes that the main 'background' of this war, a factor that is missing in mainstream media coverage, is "NATO expansion."
"This is not just my opinion," said Chomsky, "it is the opinion of every high-level US official in the diplomatic services who has any familiarity with Russia and Eastern Europe. This goes back to George Kennan and, in the 1990s, Reagan's ambassador Jack Matlock, including the current director of the CIA; in fact, just everybody who knows anything has been warning Washington that it is reckless and provocative to ignore Russia's very clear and explicit red lines. That goes way before (Vladimir) Putin, it has nothing to do with him; (Mikhail) Gorbachev, all said the same thing. Ukraine and Georgia cannot join NATO, this is the geostrategic heartland of Russia."
From https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/06/25/not-justification-provocation-chomsky-root-causes-russia-ukraine-war
There is a world of difference between saying that NATO expansion is a background to the war and saying that NATO expansion is at fault and caused the war.
The difference being whether you think the attitude and response of Russian leaders like Putin makes an ounce of sense and has a rational basis. Whether you believe that expansion is a "threat". Whether you treat NATO as nothing more than an American front with a whole lot of countries that lack any will of their own, despite the actual processes they went through to join NATO.
Sure, the expansion of NATO is the background to Russia invading Ukraine. Just like Biden's election win is the background to the January 6 storming of the US Capitol. We all know this. Background does not mean JUSTIFICATION.
And Todd's mistake is that he keeps treating it as the latter. Chomsky, apparently, does not make that mistake. Edit: or maybe he does, because different bits of the quote point different ways.
The 28 NATO members who have kindly ratified the memberships of Sweden and Finland are apparently "frustrated" because Turkey and Hungary are taking time with the ratification. The foreign minister of Finland, Pekka Haavisto, said in an interview on TV that there has been talks among the 28 countries that they could give Sweden and Finland article 5 safety quarantees without Turkey and Hungary as a solution to this situation. In fact I have been thinking about this solution for months, but I considered it unrealistic, because I underestimated the willingness of the 28 NATO countries to solve this.
Hungary has "promised" to ratify in February, but this remains to be seen. As for Turkey, their ridiculous demands are a real problems particularly when it comes to Sweden. Changes are they will NEVER ratify!
It is very telling that some foolish officials and some gullible members of the public are so eager to further militarize foreign policy that they are willing to accept an erosion of one of the defining traits of the NATO treaty. It will also set an exceptionally dangerous precedent that will be used at a later time. Some people will happily rationalize this, of course.
Proper diplomacy takes time and is hard.
If this horrible idea comes to fruition, the only sensible course of action will be to pour money into defense ETFs.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 10, 2023, 01:18:11 PMThe foreign minister of Finland, Pekka Haavisto, said in an interview on TV that there has been talks among the 28 countries that they could give Sweden and Finland article 5 safety quarantees without Turkey and Hungary as a solution to this situation. In fact I have been thinking about this solution for months, but I considered it unrealistic, because I underestimated the willingness of the 28 NATO countries to solve this.
That would be a very, very bad idea....
Orbán will cave in under pressure - he already overplayed his hand within the EU.
Erdoğan will be a much tougher nut to crack.... He successfully played both sides in the Russo-Ukrainian war and strengthened his strategic position. But Turkey is not doing well economically - that is his weak spot.
Quote from: Todd on January 10, 2023, 01:35:46 PMIt is very telling that some foolish officials and some gullible members of the public are so eager to further militarize foreign policy that they are willing to accept an erosion of one of the defining traits of the NATO treaty. It will also set an exceptionally dangerous precedent that will be used at a later time. Some people will happily rationalize this, of course.
Proper diplomacy takes time and is hard.
If this horrible idea comes to fruition, the only sensible course of action will be to pour money into defense ETFs.
Wait, so NOW it's a defining trait of the treaty? Up until now you've kept telling us how it's the Americans who unilaterally decide who's in the NATO club. But suddenly, it's of vital importance to you that every country is involved.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 10, 2023, 10:23:27 AMI had to do a word-search on that Chomsky article to see it mentioned either "motte" or "bailey".
Hot news: it didn't.
Other hot news: it didn't clear up the issue you speak of, either. :)
It's the fallacy of defending or switching to the weaker position (instead of the stronger more-difficult-to-defend one). Who can argue with allowing the Ukraine to join whatever it wants to? But U.S. policy seems to have long been to have the Ukraine join NATO. This is a fact. You can argue that this is a good thing, that Ukraine has long feared Russia's vision of the Ukraine as an other Russian people or however is the correct way to put it. There seems to be little doubt that a conflict was inevitable without some sort of compromise. This is clear if one looks at the positions of even Yeltsin and Gorbachev. So, this war seems to have always required American involvement.
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 02:52:31 PMSo, this war seems to have always required American involvement.
Obviously. No NATO, no war. No US support and direction, no NATO. A European-only version of NATO (a purely silly notion, to be sure) may have been able to lead to such a conflict, but profitable Mars mining by 2035 is more probable than effective, coordinated European-only defense this century.
Quote from: Todd on January 10, 2023, 02:59:14 PMObviously. No NATO, no war. No US support and direction, no NATO. A European-only version of NATO (a purely silly notion, to be sure) may have been able to lead to such a conflict, but profitable Mars mining by 2035 is more probable than effective, coordinated European-only defense this century.
Maybe I have to reread everything here. Are people denying that this is geopolitics, i.e. one empire showing the other that it is...no more? Is that a wrong way to see this (I mean besides other very real questions of what Uranians want for themselves and how they can get it)? This war seems to have been a long time coming.
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 03:51:04 PMMaybe I have to reread everything here. Are people denying that this is geopolitics, i.e. one empire showing the other that it is...no more? Is that a wrong way to see this (I mean besides other very real questions of what Uranians want for themselves and how they can get it)? This war seems to have been a long time coming.
Almost everyone on this forum who posts on this topic adamantly denies the existence of an American empire while pointing to a Russian empire of unlimited ambition and terrifying military capability that, while not able to vanquish Ukraine quickly, somehow represents some type of existential threat to Europe. The US has been overtly interfering in Ukrainian affairs since no later than 2014. There's that infamous Victoria Nuland phone call that was released in that year to offer aural evidence. I'm sure certain people on this forum will insist it means something else. That the US has toppled governments all around the world starting no later than the 50s, and earlier in the western hemisphere, and triggered horrific wars to achieve those ends, is incontrovertible fact, yet somehow that sordid history does not apply here. Or something like that. No, the US is partnering with countries generally and Ukraine specifically to selflessly help them establish liberal democracy, the only legitimate form of government. It's good guys vs bad guys.
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 03:51:04 PMMaybe I have to reread everything here. Are people denying that this is geopolitics, i.e. one empire showing the other that it is...no more? Is that a wrong way to see this (I mean besides other very real questions of what Uranians want for themselves and how they can get it)? This war seems to have been a long time coming.
Ukrainians want to join the EU. Not the United States.
As I've pointed out to you before, the desire of Ukrainians, particularly in the west of the country, to be more Europe-looking and independent from Russia dates back to the 19th century, long before USA power was prominent. Russians blame the Austrian empire for creating a fictional Ukrainian national identity.
Saying this is all about America ignores how much of it predates the time when America had any influence in Europe.
Go and ask around the EU whether they're part of the American empire. See what kind of reaction you get.
Quote from: Madiel on January 10, 2023, 04:35:33 PMUkrainians want to join the EU. Not the United States.
As I've pointed out to you before, the desire of Ukrainians, particularly in the west of the country, to be more Europe-looking and independent from Russia dates back to the 19th century, long before USA power was prominent. Russians blame the Austrian empire for creating a fictional Ukrainian national identity.
Saying this is all about America ignores how much of it predates the time when America had any influence in Europe.
Go and ask around the EU whether they're part of the American empire. See what kind of reaction you get.
How is this relevant? Whether the Ukraine succeeds or fails IS all about America. And the way it got here is as well. They can be as "Europe looking" as they want. I suppose you can ask around Europe whether they want to cut ties with American-backed military organizations (would be Todd's quite rational and obvious argument). "For the U.S. and its Western allies, a successful and independent Ukraine was a potent potential symbol that Russia's time as a powerful empire had come to an end. During the early 2000s, President George W. Bush pushed for Ukraine to become a NATO member. France and Germany opposed it, fearing escalation with Russia. The result was a 'worst of all worlds' compromise in 2008...a promise that Ukraine would eventually join NATO, but without any concrete timeline or pathway to do so." https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-russia-nato-explainer
No NATO, no EU.
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 04:55:34 PMHow is this relevant? Whether the Ukraine succeeds or fails IS all about America. And the way it got here is as well. They can be a "Europe looking" as they want. I suppose you can ask around Europe whether they want to cut ties with American-backed military organizations (would be Todd's quite rational and obvious argument). "For the U.S. and its Western allies, a successful and independent Ukraine was a potent potential symbol that Russia's time as a powerful empire had come to an end. During the early 2000s, President George W. Bush pushed for Ukraine to become a NATO member. France and Germany opposed it, fearing escalation with Russia. The result was a 'worst of all worlds' compromise in 2008...a promise that Ukraine would eventually join NATO, but without any concrete timeline or pathway to do so." https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-russia-nato-explainer
How is this relevant...?
So basically, you're just as US-centric as Todd, and fuck the Europeans for having a history or desires that don't involve you.
The US is giving aid to Ukraine. So are a pile of other countries. It's not America's war just because Americans like making a noise about how important they are.
America did not invent all the trappings of Western civilisation. In certain cases it hasn't even got around to ADOPTING them. So can we please get past treating the rest of the "West" as nothing more than American vassals.
Quote from: Madiel on January 10, 2023, 05:28:25 PMtreating the rest of the "West" as nothing more than American vassals.
Truly a singularly dull-witted conceit.
Quote from: Madiel on January 10, 2023, 05:28:25 PMAmerica did not invent all the trappings of Western civilisation. In certain cases it hasn't even got around to ADOPTING them. So can we please get past treating the rest of the "West" as nothing more than American vassals.
I think this is just typical of you. This is how you operate. So, my view is that America is superior to Europe, that it's more civilized? I think this just shows how dishonest you are as an interlocutor. I don't really mind it - most people on here are just fine but I do find you unusually insincere. That's a tactic.
Anyway, the U.S. is obviously superior militarily. That's obviously the question we're dealing with and I really don't know how this conversation gets so out of wack that the most obvious things get taken to such unrealistic realms of fantasy and convolution. There are people that argue that U.S. power is a good thing or a necessary thing. There are those that argue it's a bad thing. There are those that think it's sustainable or unsustainable. It seems settled that the U.S. has long wanted the Ukraine in NATO knowing what that would lead to. You can argue that this is a good thing. Or you can continue arguing that this is a misunderstanding of the situation I guess. But there's so much evidence for this.
Sigh. That's my first response.
Again, whether the US would like Ukraine in NATO is quite, quite different to believing that the US is the arbiter of whether or not Ukraine is in NATO. The issue is the constant elevating of what the US wants for the membership of NATO over what EVERY OTHER MEMBER wants.
And the profound lack of engagement, until it suddenly suited Todd, with the actual voting structure of NATO.
I'm not disputing most of what the US position is. What annoys the hell out of me is the complete sidelining of anyone else's position as if it's irrelevant. Other European countries obviously, but also countries elsewhere. India's position is important. Today in the media here there's an interesting article about the Russian presence in Central African Republic.
But in this thread, what repeatedly comes across is a narrative that is little more than that the world is still a simple 2-sided US v Russia contest, which wasn't even very accurate in the Cold War era and is still less accurate now. I can find it believable that an ex-KGB agent is locked into this line of thinking, but it's a little bizarre to me that anyone talking on the internet could still believe the world works like this.
People in Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other "Western" countries are not simply pseudo-Americans with amusing accents.** Ukraine has been trying for about 150 years to assert that it is not Russia, but "not Russian" is not a synonym for "American". It certainly wasn't when the US was busy recovering from a civil war, which is how far back the question of Ukraine's place in the world actually goes.
As to your claim that I'm dishonest or insincere: it's ironic that you claim to be able to see inside my head when complaining that I've failed to see inside yours. The fact that I say things you dislike does not make me dishonest and insincere. I can assure you I sincerely mean what I say. I'm not here to troll.
**Noting that the USA itself is a strikingly diverse country in some ways. The argument that it's actually something like 11 nations fused together strikes me as quite plausible.
Quote from: Madiel on January 10, 2023, 05:03:11 PMHow is this relevant...?
So basically, you're just as US-centric as Todd, and fuck the Europeans for having a history or desires that don't involve you.
Quote from: Madiel on January 10, 2023, 08:24:15 PMAs to your claim that I'm dishonest or insincere: it's ironic that you claim to be able to see inside my head when complaining that I've failed to see inside yours. The fact that I say things you dislike does not make me dishonest and insincere.
Yeah. I know dude. Believe me, I hold up my pants with a rope. Those Kiwis are just 'Mercians with a funny accent.
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 08:00:01 PMAnyway, the U.S. is obviously superior militarily. That's obviously the question we're dealing with
and I really don't know how this conversation gets so out of wack that the most obvious things get taken to such unrealistic realms of fantasy and convolution.
This is what I'm talking about. How, in a thread about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is the superiority of the American military the question that we're "obviously" dealing with?
To the point that you complain we've inexplicably got onto topics that don't involve America.
People who want to talk about other countries are not diverting the thread. The constant centrality of America is diverting the thread. Russia invaded Ukraine. Those two countries are central to the discussion. America is not. The overall might of the US military is not that key to a war in Ukraine when the US is basically giving a bit of spare change to the Ukrainian army, except to the extent that America's small change is larger than the UK's spare change (similar amount of GDP involved, I checked).
So sure, the US military is impressive. It's also basically not in Ukraine. I hear the Chinese military is pretty impressive too, so should we be talking about that on a thread about War in Europe?
Quote from: Madiel on January 10, 2023, 08:46:23 PMThis is what I'm talking about. How, in a thread about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is the superiority of the American military the question that we're "obviously" dealing with?
To the point that you complain we've inexplicably got onto topics that don't involve America.
People who want to talk about other countries are not diverting the thread. The constant centrality of America is diverting the thread. Russia invaded Ukraine. Those two countries are central to the discussion. America is not. The overall might of the US military is not that key to a war in Ukraine when the US is basically giving a bit of spare change to the Ukrainian army, except to the extent that America's small change is larger than the UK's spare change (similar amount of GDP involved, I checked).
So sure, the US military is impressive. It's also basically not in Ukraine. I hear the Chinese military is pretty impressive too, so should we be talking about that on a thread about War in Europe?
Quote from: Madiel on January 10, 2023, 08:46:23 PMThis is what I'm talking about. How, in a thread about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is the superiority of the American military the question that we're "obviously" dealing with?
To the point that you complain we've inexplicably got onto topics that don't involve America.
People who want to talk about other countries are not diverting the thread. The constant centrality of America is diverting the thread. Russia invaded Ukraine. Those two countries are central to the discussion. America is not. The overall might of the US military is not that key to a war in Ukraine when the US is basically giving a bit of spare change to the Ukrainian army, except to the extent that America's small change is larger than the UK's spare change (similar amount of GDP involved, I checked).
So sure, the US military is impressive. It's also basically not in Ukraine. I hear the Chinese military is pretty impressive too, so should we be talking about that on a thread about War in Europe?
(http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/27278.jpeg)
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 08:57:21 PM(http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/27278.jpeg)
So you didn't read what I actually said, then.
Military aid does not mean the US military has been deployed in Ukraine. Any more than people sending money or food or goods as humanitarian aid hop on a plane to Kyiv.
Australia has given Ukraine military aid. The vehicles we sent them are being driven by Ukrainian troops.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 12:26:29 AMIt's not a fact just because you say it is. It seems to me (I'm not in the State Department, so I've only got appearances to go on) that US policy has long been to let Ukraine decide its own future as a sovereign, independent nation. Which seems rather innocuous to me, as policies go.
It's not up to the US in any case who can and can't join NATO (as Sweden and Finland are finding out. Thanks, Turkey!). Can US pressure be brought to bear on existing members in pursuit of a US desire for country X to join? Obviously, but it clearly isn't beyond anyone's capabilities to resist such pressure.
Never mind, either, that Ukraine membership was completely off the table until such time as Russia stopped annexing Crimea and the Russian-backed separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk were dealt with. Russia had (indeed, currently has) an effective veto over Ukraine's NATO membership, since you can't be a member without territorial integrity. So, what was new in 2022 about Ukraine's NATO ambitions compared to, say, 2015? Nothing. In both cases, it was never a practical possibility.
This war was waged in 2022, not 2015, however because of one big difference: by 2022, Ukraine was looking like it had managed to get its act together and be a successfully-functioning democracy, whereas in 2015, it was a bit of civil-war-ridden basketcase. Guess what Putin cannot have on his doorstep?
Your claim that 'this war always required American involvement' is fact-devoid nonsense, in short.
You can think that. That's fine. There's a very healthy debate about this with a number of reputable people thinking in the opposite direction. You think they're wrong. I'm not sure. At least there's an argument here and it's not ridiculous. I know the rhetoric here can get a bit hot. I've nothing against you BTW. I don't take anything personal here (even if I do think one particular person is silly, and it's not Todd). I disagree as far as saying the argument is nonsense. It's sense, right or wrong. What's more, I live in Japan, a country that's security is guaranteed by the U.S. military. Is it a vassal state? I'd say Japan looks out for its own interests (which includes its hypocritical stances on the nuclear umbrella). Is American power good? That's a question. Does it exist? That's not a question. Does it drive the facts on the ground? Not a question. But back to the Ukraine and a hope for an outcome that the world can bear.
Quote from: Todd on January 10, 2023, 02:59:14 PMNo NATO, no war.
Afghanistan was not a NATO candidate. Chechnya was not a NATO candidate, either in 1994 or 1999. Georgia was not a NATO candidate. Ukraine was not a NATO candidate, either in 2014 or 2022. Conversely, the Baltic States became NATO members without Russia's firing one single pistol shot at them.
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 01:44:14 AMYou can think that. That's fine. There's a very healthy debate about this with a number of reputable people thinking in the opposite direction. You think they're wrong. I'm not sure. At least there's an argument here and it's not ridiculous. I know the rhetoric here can get a bit hot. I've nothing against you BTW. I don't take anything personal here (even if I do think one particular person is silly, and it's not Todd). I disagree as far as saying the argument is nonsense. It's sense, right or wrong. What's more, I live in Japan, a country that's security is guaranteed by the U.S. military. Is it a vassal state? I'd say Japan looks out for its own interests (which include its hypocritical stances on the nuclear umbrella). Is American power good? That's a question. Does it exist? That's not a question. Does it drive the facts on the ground? Not a question. But back to the Ukraine and a hope for an outcome that the world can beat.
You don't take anything personally but you described me as insincere and dishonest. Basically for my keenness that a thread about a war in Europe actually focus on Europe. And saying that just maybe you should be aware that the awkward relationship between Ukraine and Russia has been in play for about 150 years.
The US military is not fighting in Ukraine.
Quote from: Madiel on January 11, 2023, 02:21:25 AMthe awkward relationship between Ukraine and Russia has been in play for about 150 years.
And not just Ukraine, one might add. The vast majority of the nations which came under Russian hegemony one way or another sought to escape the Russian sphere of influence as soon as they could*. Many succeeded while a few remained in a limbo, including Ukraine, and they are still vulnerable to Russia's appetite for domination and control of their neighbours, which may at times be dormant but it's never extinct.
* in Rmoania, for instance, the move away from Russian hegemony started in 1848, gained traction in 1856, 1859, 1866, 1877 and 1881 and culminated in 1918; after a relapse between 1945 and 1989, our accession to full NATO membership in 2004 marks the first time in history when we are really safe from Russian aggression, short of WWIII.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 02:39:01 AMAnd not just Ukraine, one might add. The vast majority of the nations which came under Russian hegemony one way or another sought to escape the Russian sphere of influence as soon as they could*. Many succeeded while a few remained in a limbo, including Ukraine, and they are still vulnerable to Russia's appetite for domination and control of their neighbours, which may at times be dormant but it's never extinct.
* in Rmoania, for instance, the move away from Russian hegemony started in 1848, gained traction in 1856, 1859, 1866, 1877 and 1881 and culminated in 1918; after a relapse between 1945 and 1989, our accession to full NATO membership in 2004 marks the first time in history when we are really safe from Russian aggression, short of WWIII.
Yes, I don't doubt there's a much wider tract of Europe where it's an issue. Though I would also suggest it's particularly acute for Ukraine and Belarus where the Russian mindset seems to be that they're just Russians with funny accents. The related languages have encouraged this sort of argument. At one point Todd shared an article that took the "Ukraine is not really a country" line.
Russia might want to take over Romania, but would it suggest Romanians are not a distinct people? Part of me thinks not, I mean, you don't even speak a Slavic language. On the other hand... Moldova.
Quote from: Madiel on January 11, 2023, 02:47:28 AMRussia might want to take over Romania, but would it suggest Romanians are not a distinct people? Part of me thinks not, I mean, you don't even speak a Slavic language. On the other hand... Moldova.
The Republic of Moldova consist mainly of the former Bassarabia region of Moldova proper (the Principality of Moldova, that is), which never belonged to Russia until they annexed it in 1812. In 1918 their newly founded Parliament voted to reunite with Romania. In 1940 as a result of the Hitler-Stalin pact the USSR annexed it again, plus some additional territory which never belonged to Russia and which ended up in Ukraine.
Contrary to Russian propaganda, there is no such thing as a "Moldovan" language, let alone nation. They are Romanians who have undergone a long process of forced Russification; most of them still speak Romanian proper (a Romance language), albeit heavily influenced by Russian accent, syntax and vocabulary; a sizeable minority of them have been thoroughly Russified so that they speak mainly, or only , Russian. And then, of course, there are Russians proper who have settled there since 1812.
That being said, if a referendum were ever held for the unification of Romania and Republic of Moldova I'd vote "No" for reasons which should be obvious from the paragraph above. Allowing a few thousands Russians / Russophones to become Romanian citizens means a direct invitation to Putin and Russia to medley heavily in Romanian affairs under the pretext of protecting the interests of the Russian people. Such a danger clearly outweighs any benefit that might result from the unification. Actually, besides a moral historical reparation I don't see any such benefit.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 01:46:04 AMAfghanistan was not a NATO candidate. Chechnya was not a NATO candidate, either in 1994 or 1999.
Different wars.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 01:46:04 AMGeorgia was not a NATO candidate.
George W Bush advocated for Georgia becoming a NATO member in 2008.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 01:46:04 AMUkraine was not a NATO candidate, either in 2014 or 2022.
George W Bush advocated for Ukraine becoming a NATO member in 2008.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 02:39:01 AMThe vast majority of the nations which came under Russian hegemony one way or another sought to escape the Russian sphere of influence as soon as they could*.
This is understandable. It is not the responsibility of the US to offer an alternative.
Time is not on Ukraine's side (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/07/condoleezza-rice-robert-gates-ukraine-repel-russia/)
Robbie Gates and Condi Rice team up in one heckuva piece explaining why the US and Europe must accelerate weapons shipments to Time's Puppet of the Year. The greatest hits of pro-war propaganda are in there: 1914!; 1941!!; 2001!!!; Churchill; Ukrainian heroism; lessons of history. Oh my. I swoon at the soaring rhetoric. Mushroom cloud lady has gotten so, so much better. Neocons of GMG should read, but only cautiously. This powerful piece is likely to lead to ecstasy sufficient to make them pass out. Good stuff, good stuff.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 12:26:29 AMYour claim that 'this war always required American involvement' is fact-devoid nonsense, in short.
This is a contrafactual assertion. The Trump Administration began sending arms to Ukraine in 2017. Ukraine cannot fight this war without the US.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 01:58:18 AMYou are beating about so many houses, it's difficult to know what you're actually saying.
The argument you appear to be saying can be healthily debated is, I think, "America caused the Russo-Ukraine War", in a nutshell.
I don't agree that's even a vaguely rational proposition.
I'd have to reread all my posts but I don't think I'd put it exactly like that and I don't think that U.S. influence necessarily makes something bad. Taiwan, for example, is going to act a certain way that it wouldn't otherwise act if not for American influence. I am not sure (100%) of anything but I have confidence that there are some things that are rational and worth considering. One is that the Ukraine could not hope to successfully defend itself against Russia without U.S. support. I don't know if that's absolutely true. I'm not well-read on any of these topics. The other is that some say that U.S. policies directly led to this situation. Now, how we put this is tricky. It could be that the Ukraine was heading towards a conflict with Russia that the U.S. had good reasons to encourage it. How would you put Chomsky's and Mearsheimer's positions? The NPR article I linked is titled, "How NATO's expansion helped drive Putin to invade Ukraine." Yes, it may be wrong. These positions may be, as you describe them, not even "vaguely rational" propositions and "fact-devoid nonsense." It's up to you how satisfied you are with your understanding of the arguments. I'm not convinced you've really steel-manned what these sources have said. You've said they're laughable. I got that.
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 04:22:59 AMOne is that the Ukraine could not hope to successfully defend itself against Russia without U.S. support. I don't know if that's absolutely true.
It is absolutely true. People who assert otherwise do not know the facts, nor do they understand the breadth of US involvement. It includes not just weapons systems, humanitarian assistance, and financial assistance, but also military intelligence and field testing of next generation satellite communications, all things that no other country or group of countries can provide. European countries are bystanders or tagalongs as their imperial overlord directs the war.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 04:33:41 AMBut that doesn't contrafact anything!
Contrafact is not a verb. Your assertion was contrafactual. Ukraine cannot fight without US support. It can fight without UK support.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 12:26:29 AMIt's not up to the US in any case who can and can't join NATO
This is another contrafactual assertion. The US can block any country from joining.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 04:26:59 AMIt is absolutely true. People who assert otherwise do not know the facts, nor do they understand the breadth of US involvement. It includes not just weapons systems, humanitarian assistance, and financial assistance, but also military intelligence and field testing of next generation satellite communications, all things that no other country or group of countries can provide. European countries are bystanders or tagalongs as their imperial overlord directs the war.
I wonder also how much monetary, diplomatic and other behind-the-scenes influence the U.S. has exercised towards outcomes. Obviously Russia did much. New Zealand? I'm thinking not so much?
Quote from: milk on January 10, 2023, 08:57:21 PM(http://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/27278.jpeg)
SO WHERE'S THE PROBLEM? Certainly the USA is the
best able to make a relatively huge contribution. (Kudo's to tiny Latvia for doing so much relatively speaking.) I argued earlier in this thread that the USA in NATO is is necessary & essential to offset Russia's nuclear blackmail. The
size of the USA's contribution to Ukrainian resistance is merely that country responsibly fulfilling its NATO contribution.
There is a faction who apparently
hate & resent the primacy of the USA in world affairs have tried to paint Ukraine as a
two-part hegemonist struggle between the USA and Russia. That's not just an over-simplification it's essentially wrong. There is no equivalence between the moral or practical intentions of Russia and the USA in this conflict or world affairs in general.
I'm not an American myself so I am able and entitled to call-out the
ressentiment towards the USA of people like Chomsky and one or two contributing to this thread.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 04:09:06 AMGeorge W Bush advocated for Georgia becoming a NATO member in 2008.
George W Bush advocated for Ukraine becoming a NATO member in 2008.
Irrelevant. Neither Georgia nor Ukraine had filed their NATO candidature when Russia invaded them and neither of them could have filed it, actually, because both of them had unresolved territorial disputes with their neighbours, incidentally Russia.
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 04:38:33 AMI wonder also how much monetary, diplomatic and other behind-the-scenes influence the U.S. has exercised towards outcomes. Obviously Russia did much. New Zealand? I'm thinking not so much?
The US is easily the most powerful political entity in the world by every measure of power and influence. I write entity because the US wields more power in every area than any single country or large bloc, namely the EU. The DOD used to use the phrase "full spectrum dominance" to describe the desired state of US power. This has been achieved. The US leverages not just its military power and its military deployments, but also legal extraterritoriality, regulations, direct financial power (government loans and grants), secondary financial power (access to the US central bank), and tertiary financial power (access to private US financial institutions) to either influence or directly control policies and actions in other countries. Non-miliary tools of influence have been used since no later than the Dawes Plan, and in the wake of 9/11, the US has used both new legislated powers and regulatory powers imposed by the Treasury to squeeze even US allies. For quite a few years between 2002 and at least 2014, these new tools of financial coercion were points on contention among allies. With hot war among white people now a thing, these have faded in importance.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 04:44:59 AMIrrelevant.
Incorrect. Bush's statements were criticized around the world at the time, and even Bobbie Gates said it was too much at the time. Bush's policy proposals are not just relevant, they are foundational elements of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 04:37:17 AMThe US can block any country from joining.
Yes but there's nothing special to that. Any NATO country can do that.
A better question is: can the US, by their own will and action, bring any country in NATO? The answer is no. So much for NATO being a tool of American imperialism.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 04:53:13 AMYes but there's nothing special to that. Any NATO country can do that.
I was pointing out the contrafactual nature of the statement.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 04:53:13 AMA better question is: can the US, by their own will and action, bring any country in NATO? The answer is no. So much for NATO being a tool of American imperialism.
Read response 4783. The US uses pressure all the time to achieve desired ends. It requires a certain naivete to believe that the US does not use its power to achieve its imperial ends. NATO is the military tool of US imperialism in Europe.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 11, 2023, 04:41:03 AMI'm not an American myself so I am able and entitled to call-out the ressentiment towards the USA of people like Chomsky and one or two contributing to this thread.
This reflects your misunderstanding, and nothing else.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 04:51:41 AMIncorrect. Bush's statements were criticized around the world at the time, and even Bobbie Gates said it was too much at the time. Bush's policy proposals are not just relevant, they are foundational elements of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Please illuminate us: (1) when did Ukraine file an official request for NATO membership? (2) when was this request discussed in a NATO council? (3) when was Ukraine officially accepted as a NATO candidate?
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 05:00:45 AMPlease illuminate us: (1) when did Ukraine file an official request for NATO membership? (2) when was this request discussed in a NATO council? (3) when was Ukraine officially accepted as a NATO candidate?
This is irrelevant question begging.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 04:58:30 AMThe US uses pressure all the time to achieve desired ends. It requires a certain naivete to believe that the US does not use its power to achieve its imperial ends. NATO is the military tool of US imperialism in Europe.
Then how come Finland and Sweden are not yet NATO members? According to your theory, their accession should have been ratified on fast-forward mode long time ago.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 05:03:43 AMThis is irrelevant question begging.
You claimed that Ukraine's putative accession to NATO triggered the war. How, then, can the fact that Ukraine had actually never been a NATO candidate be irrelevant to the discussion?
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 05:05:12 AMThen how come Finland and Sweden are not yet NATO members? According to your theory, their accession should have been ratified on fast-forward mode long time ago.
No, I have been clear that proper diplomacy takes time and is hard. Negotiations have been going on for less than a year. Things are moving quickly.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 05:09:09 AMYou claimed that Ukraine's putative accession to NATO triggered the war.
That is not what I claimed.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 04:44:59 AMIrrelevant. Neither Georgia nor Ukraine had filed their NATO candidature when Russia invaded them and neither of them could have filed it, actually, because both of them had unresolved territorial disputes with their neighbours, incidentally Russia.
Yeah, except these unresolved disputes are very largely imposed by Russia.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 11, 2023, 05:12:11 AMYeah, except these unresolved disputes are very largely imposed by Russia.
Not really.
Take Georgia: Georgia started war with Russia: EU-backed report (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-russia-report/georgia-started-war-with-russia-eu-backed-report-idUSTRE58T4MO20090930)
The US and NATO allies established the conditions that led to Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 05:10:30 AMI have been clear that proper diplomacy takes time and is hard.
I should have thought that there is no need for diplomacy between an imperial power and their vassals. The empire dictates, the vassals obey. Now you tell us that actually the empire needs proper, time-consuming, difficult diplomacy to achieve its goals even with the vassals. Some empire, this one of yours!
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 05:20:56 AMI should have thought that there is no need for diplomacy between an imperial power and their vassals.
The American empire relies partly on the fiction of legalism. Until it doesn't.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 11, 2023, 04:41:03 AMSO WHERE'S THE PROBLEM? Certainly the USA is the best able to make a relatively huge contribution. (Kudo's to tiny Latvia for doing so much relatively speaking.) I argued earlier in this thread that the USA in NATO is is necessary & essential to offset Russia's nuclear blackmail. The size of the USA's contribution to Ukrainian resistance is merely that country responsibly fulfilling its NATO contribution.
There is a faction who apparently hate & resent the primacy of the USA in world affairs have tried to paint Ukraine as a two-part hegemonist struggle between the USA and Russia. That's not just an over-simplification it's essentially wrong. There is no equivalence between the moral or practical intentions of Russia and the USA in this conflict or world affairs in general.
I'm not an American myself so I am able and entitled to call-out the ressentiment towards the USA of people like Chomsky and one or two contributing to this thread.
I'm actually not a fan of Chomsky and not deep into this argument usually. There's a simple point here about U.S. power that you seem to get. Past that, I've mostly said in the recent past that Todd obviously makes well-thought-out sincerely held and serious points that are met with a lot of weird accusations. I do see the necessity of provoking thought, especially living where I live. I make an analogy, rightly or wrongly, to my own region of residence. The U.S. guarantees a certain arrangement of things vis a vis East Asia. It could be moral or necessary or practical or otherwise. However it is, the Ukraine has received that huge contribution that, um, guarantees the possibility of a direction. But just fulfilling its NATO contribution? Is THAT what the U.S. is up to? Huh. As Biden would say, "come on man!"
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 05:27:48 AMthat are met with a lot of weird accusations
I can't decide which I find funnier, accusations of hating America, being a Putin apologist, or being a Nazi. They all make me chortle, to use GMGese.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 05:22:11 AMThe American empire relies partly on the fiction of legalism.
Please, make up your mind: it'either proper, time-onsuming, difficult diplomacy or it's a fiction of legalism. You can't have both.
While you're at it, please make up your mind about what you claim, too. You deny having claimed that Ukraine's putative accession to NATO triggered the war, yet before this denial you claimed that:
QuoteBush's policy proposals .. are foundational elements of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
and after this denial you claimed that
QuoteThe US and NATO allies established the conditions that led to Russian aggression against Ukraine.
So, you haven't claimed what you actually claimed. Or you have claimed what you actually didn't claim.
Quote from: Madiel on January 10, 2023, 09:03:39 PMSo you didn't read what I actually said, then.
Bingo. Somebody's blinders are showing.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 12:26:29 AMYour claim that 'this war always required American involvement' is fact-devoid nonsense, in short.
I applaud the polite use of
nonsense.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 05:31:11 AMI can't decide which I find funnier, accusations of hating America, being a Putin apologist, or being a Nazi.
Your views on America coincide to a great extent with those of people who do hate Anerica.
Your views on Russia and its actions coincide to a great extent with those of Putin's.
I don't recall anyone accusing you of being a Nazi.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 12:30:21 AMSweden and Finland are, functionally, already inside the tent.
Yes, I agree, but Sweden and Finland are a few feet inside the tent, not near the center pole where peace of mind is higher.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 11, 2023, 05:45:21 AMBingo. Somebody's blinders are showing.
Somebody has nothing to say.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 11, 2023, 05:46:51 AMI applaud the polite use of nonsense.
Applause from a groundling I hear.
I predict the imminent demise of this thread. 3,2,1...
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 05:27:48 AMI'm actually not a fan of Chomsky and not deep into this argument usually. There's a simple point here about U.S. power that you seem to get. Past that, I've mostly said in the recent past that Todd obviously makes well-thought-out sincerely held and serious points that are met with a lot of weird accusations. I do see the necessity of provoking thought, especially living where I live. I make an analogy, rightly or wrongly, to my own region of residence. The U.S. guarantees a certain arrangement of things vis a vis East Asia. It could be moral or necessary or practical or otherwise. However it is, the Ukraine has received that huge contribution that, um, guarantees the possibility of a direction. But just fulfilling its NATO contribution? Is THAT what the U.S. is up to? Huh. As Biden would say, "come on man!"
There is no need to pretend that the American policies and actions are pure & pristine altruism.
But there is a danger in weighing American self-interest too heavily. Americans of good will (and some without) believe that liberal democracy and rule-of-law are in America's self-interest. (What happy coincidence of self-interest and the public good.) Putin's Russia doesn't see anything good about liberal democracy; Putin said so himself in as many words.
As for NATO,
SURE there are Russians who see it a threat. They are old-time militarists or others nostalgic for the Soviet Empire. Placating these Russians is pure appeasement. I believe that
even they, (in their lucid moments). will realized that former satellites and republics flocked to NATO for protection against Russian imperialist ambitions.
Evidently satellites and republics evidently feared supposed American hegemonism a good deal less -- they chose their poison and it was a good choice.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 05:50:49 AMMy degree is from Cambridge University.
Wow.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 05:36:11 AMYou can't have both.
The US does.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 05:36:11 AMWhile you're at it, please make up your mind about what you claim, too.
My mind does not need to be made up. Facts are facts. George W Bush proposed Ukrainian and Georgian NATO membership in 2008. This was highly provocative. The formal process for Ukrainian membership has not started. NATO has aggressively and recklessly expanded eastward five times since the end of the Cold War. Bush's suggestions were the most extreme, aggressive form of security diplomacy in the post-Cold War world. Pro-war posters on this board obviously and passionately support neocon policies, proposed or implemented.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 11, 2023, 06:38:44 AMPlacating these Russians is pure appeasement.
Godwin's Law.
Putin was surprised that the US and NATO would support Ukraine effectively. He thought they wouldn't, and that must have been "the provocation".
Of course provocation as a cause is an ideological presup among critics of US power. Are countries provoked to invade by the strength of opposition or by its presumed weakness? It seems to me that "yes to both" is not rational.
For Putin the problem isn't that hard. He can argue both alternatives because no one expects his arguments to follow a consistent line. All he needs to do is plant many seeds of doubt. It doesn't matter at all that no coherent thesis is advanced. Everything and its opposite is true as long as it helps the befuddled stay that way.
Aggressors spot a weakness and strike if they like the odds. The charges of provocation are meant to confuse, not explain.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 06:47:45 AMGeorge W Bush proposed Ukrainian and Georgian NATO membership in 2008... The formal process for Ukrainian membership has not started. NATO has ... expanded eastward five times since the end of the Cold War.
Well, precisely. Both before and after Bush's proposals NATO expanded eastward and Russia did not fire a single pistol shot. Yet despite the fact that Bush's proposals remained just that, proposals, and Ukraine was not even a candidate, Russia invaded them twice. It's obvious that NATO expansion has got nothing to do with it. Ukraine's own actions have: they signaled their wish to escape Russia's sphere of influence, and Russia simply cannot accept that. They have never regarded Ukraine as anything else than an integral part of Russia, except when it served their own interest to do so, for example when they secured a place and thus a vote for Ukraine at the UN (they did the same for Belarus).
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 07:21:56 AMIt's obvious that NATO expansion has got nothing to do with it.
Incorrect.
Some Hollywood propaganda, Sean Penn introducing the pure of heart Volodymyr Zelenskyy:
Be inspired!
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 07:25:24 AMIncorrect.
Why did Russia not invade the Baltic States when they declared their intention to join NATO and NATO officially accepted their candidacy?
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 07:31:08 AMWhy did Russia not invade the Baltic States when they declared their intention to join NATO?
A delicious red herring.
An interesting side note:
Russian trolls on Twitter had little influence on 2016 voters
A study finds minimal impact from Russian influence operations on Twitter in the Trump-Clinton presidential race
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/09/russian-trolls-twitter-had-little-influence-2016-voters/
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 07:43:22 AMAn interesting side note:
Russian trolls on Twitter had little influence on 2016 voters
A study finds minimal impact from Russian influence operations on Twitter in the Trump-Clinton presidential race
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/09/russian-trolls-twitter-had-little-influence-2016-voters/
Russians have infiltrated NYU. Russian power and perfidy must never be underestimated. The study is fake news. Everyone knows this.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 07:31:52 AMA delicious red herring.
So typical of you: a snide one-liner instead of a rational answer (or a frank avowal of not having a rational answer). Time and again you prove you're not worth being taken as a serious and honest discussion partner, milk's protestations to the contrary notwithstanding.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 07:50:09 AMSo typical of you: a snide one-liner instead of a rational answer (or a frank avowal of not having a rational answer). Time and again you prove you're not worth being taken as a serious and honest discussion partner, milk's protestations to the contrary notwithstanding.
No, your question is a perfect example of a red herring.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 07:31:08 AMWhy did Russia not invade the Baltic States when they declared their intention to join NATO and NATO officially accepted their candidacy?
This seems a completely reasonable question, Todd, and not at all a "red herring".
I'd be interested in hearing you give the kind of sincere and considered answer that milk thinks you're famous for, rather than the ducking with snark that I do.
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 07:43:22 AMAn interesting side note:
Russian trolls on Twitter had little influence on 2016 voters
A study finds minimal impact from Russian influence operations on Twitter in the Trump-Clinton presidential race
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/09/russian-trolls-twitter-had-little-influence-2016-voters/
So? The issue is that they tried and that they were encouraged.
Also from that article:
"But the study doesn't go so far as to say that Russia had no influence on people who voted for President Donald Trump.
It doesn't examine other social media, like the much-larger Facebook.Nor does it address Russian hack-and-leak operations. Another major study in 2018 by University of Pennsylvania communications professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson suggested those probably played a significant role in the 2016 race's outcome.Lastly, it doesn't suggest that foreign influence operations aren't a threat at all."
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 05:47:40 AMYour views on America coincide to a great extent with those of people who do hate Anerica.
Your views on Russia and its actions coincide to a great extent with those of Putin's.
It's a coincidence. I think there's an explanation, but you won't find it easy to grok. Certain Westerners hate any activity that makes government big. Among those are war, but they also include scientific and technological projects on a large scale. Since the Bronze Age these have been government projects, and always will be.
Another large scale activity is a genuine rule of law state. It's true that ruler states
can be big, while democratic states always are. Democratic capitalism is labor intensive. You need regulation and lots of it to maintain competitive markets, the kind people think of when they say "free".
This ideology is scarce outside the US, or maybe N. America. It's kind of an inverse chauvinism.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 06:47:45 AMMy mind does not need to be made up. Facts are facts. George W Bush proposed Ukrainian and Georgian NATO membership in 2008. This was highly provocative. The formal process for Ukrainian membership has not started. NATO has aggressively and recklessly expanded eastward five times since the end of the Cold War. Bush's suggestions were the most extreme, aggressive form of security diplomacy in the post-Cold War world. Pro-war posters on this board obviously and passionately support neocon policies, proposed or implemented.
{*~yawn~*} We're grinding our gears, No?
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/AnyVioletDolphin-size_restricted.gif)
What maybe NATO expansion "provoked" was angst and resentment amongst Russian militarists, but certainly no fears of immanent invasion.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 11, 2023, 09:57:06 AMWhat perhaps NATO expansion "provoked" was angst and resentment amongst Russian militarists, but certainly no fears of immanent invasion.
NATO expansion is provocative, always has been, and Russians have been clear about that. Multiple voices in the west have warned about it, as well. That the US continued to push for NATO expansion in the face of protests indicates the aggressiveness of US policy, the hubris of US leaders, the cravenness of European leaders, and the gullibility of members of the public who now openly embrace neocon dogma.
If Putin had decided the odds of success in Ukraine were too iffy, that would be what NATO provoked.
What Putin decides defines provocation. Weakness could provoke him. Strength provokes him, because everything must or the presup fails. Uncertainty provokes him because he's a gamblin' man.
Everything is a dollar in the dollar store of ideology.
Let's try to be a little consistent, please. Obama thought helping the Ukes would provoke Putin. Trump was on the other side, also not helpful. So many unhelpful years went by until Putin couldn't stand it any more. It would be fun to speculate that the NATO countries laid a super ingenious trap......
A consistent view would be weakness provokes the aggressor. In this case weakness did all the provocation work needed. Once you've explained something rationally it's OK to stop.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 11, 2023, 10:19:44 AMNo. The US are like one of the doormen team at the steps to a trendy nightclub on a busy Friday night. Everyone is clamouring to get in and it's not the doormen trying to drum up business.
Being a vassal has its privileges.
Having scanned a couple of pages of this topic I'm really puzzled what it is about.
I don't think the title quite covers it.
Perhaps Troll Crap Shoot would be more apt.
It's about absolutely nothing.
Quote from: Herman on January 11, 2023, 10:53:07 AMHaving scanned a couple of pages of this topic I'm really puzzled what it is about.
I don't think the title quite covers it.
Perhaps Troll Crap Shoot would be more apt.
It's about absolutely nothing.
The last sentence is self-referential.
Quote from: Florestan on January 11, 2023, 05:36:11 AMPlease, make up your mind: it'either proper, time-onsuming, difficult diplomacy or it's a fiction of legalism. You can't have both.
While you're at it, please make up your mind about what you claim, too. You deny having claimed that Ukraine's putative accession to NATO triggered the war, yet before this denial you claimed that:
and after this denial you claimed that
So, you haven't claimed what you actually claimed. Or you have claimed what you actually didn't claim.
Or: he's just being a troll.
Edit: I mean, there really are 2 options at this point. Either Todd is not savvy enough to realise that he's being wildly inconsistent in his attempts to argue. Or he knows perfectly well that he's being wildly inconsistent and that consistency is irrelevant in his attempts to bait. My money is generally on the latter, but I'm open to the possibility that Todd himself hasn't seen through the problems with the positions he parrots.
Quote from: SimonNZ on January 11, 2023, 09:34:33 AMSo? The issue is that they tried and that they were encouraged.
Also from that article:
"But the study doesn't go so far as to say that Russia had no influence on people who voted for President Donald Trump.
It doesn't examine other social media, like the much-larger Facebook.Nor does it address Russian hack-and-leak operations. Another major study in 2018 by University of Pennsylvania communications professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson suggested those probably played a significant role in the 2016 race's outcome.Lastly, it doesn't suggest that foreign influence operations aren't a threat at all."
It's an issue that anyone can try. I think the thing is that the MsM had trouble believing anyone could vote for trump (heck, I felt that way!) so they invented these outsized influences. The candidates spent billions. Clinton lost because of Clinton. But I agree it's a worry that any influence operations exist.
There are some who say that the American left gave Putin a huge gift by building him up as an all-powerful figure who decides American elections. The argument goes that this earned him more cred in Russia as well.
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 01:21:22 PMIt's an issue that anyone can try. I think the thing is that the MsM had trouble believing anyone could vote for trump (heck, I felt that way!) so they invented these outsized influences. The candidates spent billions. Clinton lost because of Clinton. But I agree it's a worry that any influence operations exist.
There are some who say that the American left gave Putin a huge gift by building him up as an all-powerful figure who decides American elections. The argument goes that this earned him more cred in Russia as well.
Russia has been an American bête noire since 1917, with only a brief period of cooperation during the big one. Russia is a useful enemy.
Some people will believe the various Russia conspiracy theories of the last few years until the day they die, evidence to the contrary be damned.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 01:45:43 PMRussia has been an American bête noire since 1917, with only a brief period of cooperation during the big one. Russia is a useful enemy.
Some people will believe the various Russia conspiracy theories of the last few years until the day they die, evidence to the contrary be damned.
Makes sense. I probably shouldn't have said "invented." It's some kind of group think. Propaganda is like that.
And still, the insistence is on talking about the American relationship with Russia. Not the relationship of countries near Russia, especially Ukraine, with Russia.
Quote from: Madiel on January 11, 2023, 03:40:54 PMAnd still, the insistence is on talking about the American relationship with Russia. Not the relationship of countries near Russia, especially Ukraine, with Russia.
It's discourteous to come online and tell people to talk about what you think they should talk about. People decide for themselves what they think is relevant. Talk about whatever you'd like but don't tell people what they should or shouldn't say is important.
Just kidding. :o
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 03:48:00 PMIt's discourteous to come online and tell people to talk about what you think they should talk about. People decide for themselves what they think is relevant. Talk about whatever you'd like but don't tell people what they should or shouldn't say is important.
Just kidding. :o
You do realise that most of your contribution to the thread was popping up from time to time to tell us how we weren't interacting with Todd correctly?
I'm just trying to get the thread back on topic. I'm on the verge of advocating for the American politics thread to be reopened so that Todd and anyone else can blather on about how everything is the USA government's fault to their heart's content.
That would be the perfect place to talk about American international relations. This is not supposed to be a thread about American international relations.
Quote from: Madiel on January 11, 2023, 03:55:02 PMYou do realise that most of your contribution to the thread was popping up from time to time to tell us how we weren't interacting with Todd correctly?
I'm just trying to get the thread back on topic. I'm on the verge of advocating for the American politics thread to be reopened so that Todd and anyone else can blather on about how everything is the USA government's fault to their heart's content.
We'll I'm sure your advocacy means a lot and your efforts will be rewarded. I don't care how you interact with Todd. I doubt he cares either.
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 03:58:38 PMWe'll I'm sure your advocacy means a lot and your efforts will be rewarded. I don't care how you interact with Todd. I doubt he cares either.
If you don't care, then why did you spend months expressing an opinion on it?
Ukraine is completely dependent on the US for its existence at this point. That is why Time's corrupt Puppet of the Year made his first overseas trip during the war to Washington, DC, not Brussels. That's why he popped up on the Golden Globes last night. He knows who butters his bread.
I wonder if Zelensky might be able to lasso a second Puppet of the Year award from the very prestigious Time magazine this year. Maybe Zelensky's supporters on GMG can get something going on change.org.
Quote from: Madiel on January 11, 2023, 04:00:28 PMIf you don't care, then why did you spend months expressing an opinion on it?
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 11, 2023, 05:45:21 AMBingo. Somebody's blinders are showing.
Because the world doesn't revolve around you.
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 04:13:18 PMBecause the world doesn't revolve around you.
Correct. Apparently it revolves around Washington DC.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 04:05:12 PMUkraine is completely dependent on the US for its existence at this point. That is why Time's corrupt Puppet of the Year made his first overseas trip during the war to Washington, DC, not Brussels. That's why he popped up on the Golden Globes last night. He knows who butters his bread.
I wonder if Zelensky might be able to lasso a second Puppet of the Year award from the very prestigious Time magazine this year. Maybe Zelensky's supporters on GMG can get something going on change.org.
The enjoyment you take in lobbing insults at Zelenskyy merely highlights the absence of any lobbed at the murderous little f**k in the Kremlin.
Of course, it's no more than a good little Putin apologist
should be doing.
Quote from: Todd on January 11, 2023, 10:02:40 AMNATO expansion is provocative, always has been, and Russians have been clear about that. Multiple voices in the west have warned about it, as well. That the US continued to push for NATO expansion in the face of protests indicates the aggressiveness of US policy, the hubris of US leaders, the cravenness of European leaders, and the gullibility of members of the public who now openly embrace neocon dogma.
Chamberlain and Hitler believed in appeasement too.
(Thank you, Mike Godwin, for enabling deflection of so many relevant comparisons.)
Quote from: Fëanor on January 12, 2023, 03:51:40 AMChamberlain and Hitler believed in appeasement too.
A more accurate statement would be that the latter cleverly used the gullibility of the former to great advantage.
Quote from: LKB on January 11, 2023, 10:05:22 PMThe enjoyment you take in lobbing insults at Zelenskyy merely highlights the absence of any lobbed at the murderous little f**k in the Kremlin.
Of course, it's no more than a good little Putin apologist should be doing.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 12, 2023, 03:51:40 AMChamberlain and Hitler believed in appeasement too.
(Thank you, Mike Godwin, for enabling deflection of so many relevant comparisons.)
Quote from: Florestan on January 12, 2023, 04:02:43 AMA more accurate statement would be that the latter cleverly used the gullibility of the former to great advantage.
Doubling down is a good thing.
Quote from: milk on January 11, 2023, 03:58:38 PMI don't care how you interact with Todd. I doubt he cares either.
Madiel is correct. You've demonstrated that you do care in numerous posts. Of course Todd doesn't.
Quote from: Florestan on January 12, 2023, 04:02:43 AMA more accurate statement would be that the latter cleverly used the gullibility of the former to great advantage.
Well sure, it's a matter of the appeas
er versus the appeas
ee. ::)
Quote from: Fëanor on January 12, 2023, 06:33:48 AMWell sure, it's a matter of the appeaser versus the appeasee. ::)
Actually, forget Hitler. Take Napoleon. His only implacable foes were the British. All others, Austrians, Prussians, Russians, tried an appeasement with him at one point or another. None worked. You can't appease a pathologically power-hungry person. You can only delay their next move.
False analogies abound on GMG.
Quote from: drogulus on January 11, 2023, 09:53:11 AMIt's a coincidence. I think there's an explanation, but you won't find it easy to grok. Certain Westerners hate any activity that makes government big. Among those are war, but they also include scientific and technological projects on a large scale. Since the Bronze Age these have been government projects, and always will be.
Another large scale activity is a genuine rule of law state. It's true that ruler states can be big, while democratic states always are. Democratic capitalism is labor intensive. You need regulation and lots of it to maintain competitive markets, the kind people think of when they say "free".
This ideology is scarce outside the US, or maybe N. America. It's kind of an inverse chauvinism.
This might well explain the "hatred" of the US. It doesn't explain the "Putinism". Russian government is at least as big as the American one and certainly more tyrannical.
May I inquire who, if anyone, on GMG is a Putinist and who on GMG hates America?
Quote from: Florestan on January 12, 2023, 06:54:51 AMActually, forget Hitler. Take Napoleon. His only implacable foes were the British. All others, Austrians, Prussians, Russians, tried an appeasement with him at one point or another. None worked. You can't appease a pathologically power-hungry person. You can only delay their next move.
I'm not sure it's proper to say Prussia and Austria tried to appease Napoleon. Usually appeasement is tried before the hostile power invades you, defeats your military, and occupies your capital city.
Quote from: Florestan on January 12, 2023, 06:54:51 AMActually, forget Hitler. Take Napoleon. His only implacable foes were the British. All others, Austrians, Prussians, Russians, tried an appeasement with him at one point or another. None worked. You can't appease a pathologically power-hungry person. You can only delay their next move.
... Exactly.
Quote from: Florestan on January 12, 2023, 07:27:06 AMThis might well explain the "hatred" of the US. It doesn't explain the "Putinism". Russian government is at least as big as the American one and certainly more tyrannical.
There's no concern for the size of Big Man states. They can be any size. The point is to prevent anything from happening that requires large scale government action in a state where such choices can be made by citizen action through elected representatives.
The reason the US is targeted by this unhistorical hatefest is that very few people outside the country have any ideas like this and on exposure would consider it mental to the max. They would ask in perfect innocence "How do you get anything done?" to which the answer from mentalloids would be something like "If government does it, it's wrong to do!". No case could be made for such a presupposition, which explains why no case is offered.
(https://www.politico.com/interactives/uploads/image-service/2023/1/11/3778d2995a-800.png)
(https://cdn.pixabay.com/animation/2022/09/16/16/43/16-43-27-842_512.gif)
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 12, 2023, 05:44:09 AMMadiel is correct. You've demonstrated that you do care in numerous posts. Of course Todd doesn't.
I suggested something which I thought was worthwhile: take Todd's obviously substantive arguments seriously. Madiel is dishonest so I don't care about his particular content all that much, especially because I'm busy with life as well. I know he complains a lot if he doesn't get attention. Do you feel that way about yourself? Is there a point you'd like me to consider? What is it? I don't think that highly of myself but I'm always willing to try and think about something. I don't have strong opinions on the topic here either. ETA: I'm willing to change my mind about anything if you have good arguments. I'm interested in some of the broader implications of geopolitics and would like to see a thread where these issues are discussed.
From The New Statesman:
The Zelensky myth
Why we should resist hero-worshipping Ukraine's president. (https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2022/12/volodymyr-zelensky-myth-ukraine)
I'll bite. What exactly am I supposed to have been dishonest about?
Expressing the view that the history of Ukrainian nationalism, and Russian reactions to it, is more relevant to the war than the American military which is not fighting the war is not "dishonest".
And reacting adversely to your complete dismissal of the history of Ukrainian nationalism was a thoroughly HONEST reaction. I mean, it's not as if I know a lot of the history myself. But to me a total disinterest in the subject as part of how we got here is another symptom of wanting to treat a war in Ukraine as not actually being about Ukraine, but about America.
Quote from: Florestan on January 12, 2023, 06:54:51 AMActually, forget Hitler. Take Napoleon. His only implacable foes were the British. All others, Austrians, Prussians, Russians, tried an appeasement with him at one point or another. None worked. You can't appease a pathologically power-hungry person. You can only delay their next move.
I guess the question is: what now? What is it going to take to bring this war to some sort of endpoint? Putin seems like he's wiped out any rivals or successors. I wonder what the options are for ending this war if you take destroying him off the table. Is there a solution all parties can live with? If that's on the table, what does that lead to? Or maybe I'm making unfounded assumptions. Here's a question: can the end of this conflict be broken down into broad possibilities or likelihoods or is it impossible to see? I wonder also what each involved party sees as its options and preferable outcomes.
I'd like to give you some honest answers, but I'll have to spend the time coming up with some dishonest ones.
Putin made a big bet that energy sales would fund his war in Ukraine. A new report shows that he was very wrong (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-made-big-bet-energy-215331681.html)
(original source: fortune.com)
Quote from: Que on January 12, 2023, 11:30:05 PMPutin made a big bet that energy sales would fund his war in Ukraine. A new report shows that he was very wrong (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-made-big-bet-energy-215331681.html)
(original source: fortune.com)
Interesting. I hadn't been aware that Europe was having a mild winter. Winter energy supplies were a big concern.
Quote from: Madiel on January 12, 2023, 11:51:54 PMInteresting. I hadn't been aware that Europe was having a mild winter. Winter energy supplies were a big concern.
It has been extremely mild... climate "hoax" and all that... ::)
It also thwarted Putin's scheme to freeze the Ukrainian civilian population. Now that only this week the cold has set in Ukrainiane, most of the energy infrastructure is up and running again.
Meanwhile the Russian trenches have been filled with fresh recently mobilised recruits without proper winter gear...
Quote from: Madiel on January 12, 2023, 11:51:54 PMhadn't been aware that Europe was having a mild winter.
Mild is an understatement. In Romania we had 20 C in the first days of January while in normal times we should have had -5 C at most. There's no snow at all in the ski resorts. In Poland the cherry trees have blossomed.
Quote from: Florestan on January 13, 2023, 01:02:37 AMMild is an understatement. In Romania we had 20 C in the first days of January while in normal times we should have had -5 C at most. There's no snow at all in the ski resorts. In Poland the cherry trees have blossomed.
Oh goodness.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 13, 2023, 02:06:49 AMThat last sentence sounds like something a cold war spy would say on a park bench to indicate his intentions. To which the correct reply would be something like 'And in Riga, the great eagle takes flight".
Or something. It tickled me, anyway.
;D
Quote from: milk on January 12, 2023, 08:17:40 PMI guess the question is: what now? What is it going to take to bring this war to some sort of endpoint? Putin seems like he's wiped out any rivals or successors. I wonder what the options are for ending this war if you take destroying him off the table. Is there a solution all parties can live with? If that's on the table, what does that lead to? Or maybe I'm making unfounded assumptions. Here's a question: can the end of this conflict be broken down into broad possibilities or likelihoods or is it impossible to see? I wonder also what each involved party sees as its options and preferable outcomes.
Is you objective to end the war? When appease Putin by promising the Ukraine will never joint NATO or the EU. (The Todd solution.) BTW, just ceding Crimea and the Donbas won't quite do it I suspect.
Or is you object to thwart Putin's ambition to bring eastern Europe under direct Russian sway and weaken Western democracies? That's another, more complex matter.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 13, 2023, 03:43:01 AMIs you objective to end the war? When appease Putin by promising the Ukraine will never joint NATO or the EU. (The Todd solution.) BTW, just ceding Crimea and the Donbas won't quite do it I suspect.
Or is you object to thwart Putin's ambition to bring eastern Europe under direct Russian sway and weaken Western democracies? That's another, more complex matter.
I couldn't quite understand your post. I'm always interested in bringing things back on track by stating what the current situation actually is as far as people see it. The question of how we got here can he put aside at least for a moment. What are the outcomes relevant parties are looking for? Do we know? What scenarios are predictable? Or can any various possibilities be stated at this point? I'm trying to get back to basics for myself. If these questions are uninteresting or irrelevant, so be it. Whether this war could have or should have been avoided seems irrelevant at this point, or at least something that can be dropped. This seems now to be all or nothing for Putin. But, again, I don't know Russian politics. Some say that Putin doesn't even get full information because there isn't anyone to risk telling him something he doesn't want to hear. They say the same for Jinping only worse.
Quote from: Que on January 12, 2023, 11:30:05 PMPutin made a big bet that energy sales would fund his war in Ukraine. A new report shows that he was very wrong (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-made-big-bet-energy-215331681.html)
(original source: fortune.com)
I again refer you to the work of Angela Stent for a more comprehensive treatment of economic warfare. 2023 is going to see declines in GDP across Europe. One country stands to gain from the economic challenges facing both Russia and Europe.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 13, 2023, 03:43:01 AMWhen appease Putin by promising the Ukraine will never joint NATO or the EU.
On GMG, diplomacy = appeasement.
Quote from: milk on January 13, 2023, 04:01:48 AMBut, again, I don't know Russian politics.
No one on this forum does.
@Todd if Putin was actually interested in diplomacy he wouldn't have tried to swamp Kyiv in a matter of days.
Any talk of diplomacy now is entirely because the takeover was fucked up.
Quote from: Todd on January 13, 2023, 04:46:47 AMNo one on this forum does.
Troll. Troll troll troll.
You're the person who keeps stoking the conversation and then you're also the one who keeps saying it's pointless.
Troll.
Quote from: milk on January 13, 2023, 04:01:48 AMI couldn't quite understand your post. I'm always interested in bringing things back on track by stating what the current situation actually is as far as people see it. The question of how we got here can he put aside at least for a moment. What are the outcomes relevant parties are looking for? Do we know? What scenarios are predictable? Or can any various possibilities be stated at this point? I'm trying to get back to basics for myself. If these questions are uninteresting or irrelevant, so be it. Whether this war could have or should have been avoided seems irrelevant at this point, or at least something that can be dropped. This seems now to be all or nothing for Putin. But, again, I don't know Russian politics. Some say that Putin doesn't even get full information because there isn't anyone to risk telling him something he doesn't want to hear. They say the same for Jinping only worse.
I think that is quite wrong. We need to keep longer term threats clearly in focus, otherwise short-term solutions will be just that.
A nuanced understanding of Russian politics and professional psychological insight would be great, but isn't available and isn't necessary. Putin's transparent goals are to (1) retain personal power, (2) establish Russian sway over eastern Europe (at least), and (3) establish Russia as a major player in world affairs. Of course, there are other Russians who share these goals, (2) and (3) at least.
Consider that temporary piece might be obtained by ceding Donbas and Crimea, but this would at most serve Putin's first objective by offering him a face-saver in the situation where the war was taking too long or costing too much blood & treasure. It would ultimately fail because it doesn't address Putin's wider goals which are also shared by his lackeys, including potential successors.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 13, 2023, 05:16:05 AMPutin's transparent goals are to (1) retain personal power, (2) establish Russian sway over eastern Europe (at least), and (3) establish Russia as a major player in world affairs. Of course, there are other Russians who share these goals, (2) and (3) at least.
Assuming you know what is in Putin's mind - and you do not - so what? American national security is not harmed by his goals as made up by you. Americans must focus on American national security. No one on this forum has ever been able to enumerate US economic or strategic interests in this war.
Navy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can't Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become 'Challenging'
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/01/navy-secretary-warns-if-defense-industry-cant-boost-production-arming-both-ukraine-and-us-may-become-challenging/381722/
According to Breaking Points, the reporter was asked by the Navy Secretary to delete his tweet with the quote of the Navy Secretary's comments and the REPORTER DID IT!
https://youtu.be/CPPOwEWRRCI
Quote from: Madiel on January 12, 2023, 11:51:54 PMInteresting. I hadn't been aware that Europe was having a mild winter. Winter energy supplies were a big concern.
The winter hasn't been that bad so far, but this isn't over yet. Maybe we get a mini ice age in February? Anything can happen these days due to climate change related extreme weather conditions. I mean they just got snow in Mexico! :o
Has there been electricity blackouts anywhere in the Europe?
Quote from: milk on January 13, 2023, 06:28:44 AMNavy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can't Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become 'Challenging'
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/01/navy-secretary-warns-if-defense-industry-cant-boost-production-arming-both-ukraine-and-us-may-become-challenging/381722/
This can only be addressed by emergency appropriations. $50 billion should do it. $100 billion would be better.
Ukrainians and warmongers should be clear that if the DOD must choose between arming the US and arming Ukraine, the US wins.
Quote from: milk on January 13, 2023, 06:28:44 AMAccording to Breaking Points, the reporter was asked by the Navy Secretary to delete his tweet with the quote of the Navy Secretary's comments and the REPORTER DID IT!
https://youtu.be/CPPOwEWRRCI
Of course, he works for Defense One. Here is the LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/defense-one/
"
Defense One is a portfolio brand of GovExec, the market-leading information platform empowering government contractors to engage and support government leaders as they work to achieve their missions."
Quote from: Todd on January 13, 2023, 05:21:36 AMAssuming you know what is in Putin's mind - and you do not - so what? American national security is not harmed by his goals as made up by you. Americans must focus on American national security. No one on this forum has ever been able to enumerate US economic or strategic interests in this war.
Enough cynical and malicious foolishness already. You are deliberately ignoring that it is in the USA's interest to have a democratic and rule-of-law Europe -- and world for that matter.
You have insisted that liberal democracy is inconsistent with some nations' history and culture.
True. But I have yet to convinced that history or culture
justify one-party/one-man totalitarian dictatorship. (Explanation is one thing, justification another.)
Quote from: Fëanor on January 13, 2023, 07:01:42 AMEnough cynical and malicious foolishness already. You are deliberately ignoring that it is in the USA's interest to have a democratic and rule-of-law Europe -- and world for that matter.
Neocon dogma.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 13, 2023, 07:01:42 AMYou have insisted that liberal democracy is inconsistent with some nations' history and culture. True.
Stop there.
Putin does have a mind, and he tells the world what's in it. His behavior also tells us anything that might need explanation.
What words and deeds tell us is Russia needs to control the invasion routes and capture the resources located there. Primarily this consists of the populations, the farmland and the mineral resources. Russia has the worst farmland of any large country. Ukraine has some of the best. Therefore, all Ukes living and soon to be dead are brother Russians. Surviving Ukes add to population totals, an important goal in itself.
The warmongerish West doesn't produce enough weapons for war, and perhaps not even enough for a proper defense. Can we all agree this is super-provocative? I judge Putin thought exactly that when he launched his war. Of course I'm only reading his mind in light of his actions. He might be schizo and not even know why he did it.
Earlier I made the point that NATO was a shiny object that serves as propaganda to distract from the real issue, that Ukraine had to be prevented from aligning itself with the rest of Europe in all ways other than military alliance, which is closed to them. A successful Ukraine by any metric is a nightmare for a Russian autocrat aiming to do Russian autocrat things.
Here's a Russian guy who's good at knowing stuff that I like to consult. Note: I didn't get the "drip feed" notion from him. I don't know who used it first.
Russian Guy:
Indeed, all this nonsense about not knowing what is in Putin's mind ignores the fact that he's given speeches, for heaven's sake.
Quote from: Madiel on January 13, 2023, 11:50:08 AMIndeed, all this nonsense about not knowing what is in Putin's mind ignores the fact that he's given speeches, for heaven's sake.
Your main point is valid, but I'd offer the reminder that Putin is a practiced liar. He denied the intent to invade last year, and has lied repeatedly to the Russian population since.
That's the main reason ( aside from the Russian military being back on its heels ) why negotiating would be foolish.
Putin cannot be trusted, so he needs to be either removed from power or destroyed.
Quote from: LKB on January 13, 2023, 12:18:49 PMYour main point is valid, but I'd offer the reminder that Putin is a practiced liar. He denied the intent to invade last year, and has lied repeatedly to the Russian population since.
That's the main reason ( aside from the Russian military being back on its heels ) why negotiating would be foolish.
Putin cannot be trusted, so he needs to be either removed from power or destroyed.
Yes it's true that he lies. But he does also reveal a lot of his actual approaches. It's not for nothing that I've brought up the Russian attitude to Ukraine's existence and history, he's expressed it.
It's not entirely unlike how al-Qaeda used to actually explain how it felt about the West and why it was doing what it was doing, and many people resolutely insisted that they were madmen and we couldn't possibly understand any of their motivations because they didn't really have any, just a kind of irrational destructive impulse.
Putin keeps changing generals amidst growing rivalry between different factions at the Kremlin!
Interesting article (Radio Free Europe) on military aspects and palace politics:
Surovikin's Down, Gerasimov's Up: Russia's War On Ukraine Pivots Into Politics (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gerasimov-ukraine-commander-politics-war-surovikin/32220840.html)
Quote from: LKB on January 13, 2023, 12:18:49 PMYour main point is valid, but I'd offer the reminder that Putin is a practiced liar. He denied the intent to invade last year, and has lied repeatedly to the Russian population since.
That's the main reason ( aside from the Russian military being back on its heels ) why negotiating would be foolish.
Putin cannot be trusted, so he needs to be either removed from power or destroyed.
So it's a fight to the finish for Putin? Back him to the edge of a cliff? I don't know that a deal is possible but at least it never hurts to have a line of communication.
Quote from: LKB on January 13, 2023, 12:18:49 PMPutin cannot be trusted, so he needs to be either removed from power or destroyed.
I'll have to disagree with this radical stance, if only because there's no warranty that Putin's successor would be more trustful and honest --- in fact, I'm sure that whoever succeeds him would be just as dishonest and untrustworthy, if not more. Plus, a cornered Putin might go crazy for good and order the use of nukes and I don't think anyone in his minds would want to gamble on whether the generals will disobey his orders.
In my sincere opinion (and you all know by now that I am a staunch and implacable Russophobe) Zelensky's maximalist rhetoric is misguided. There is really no way this effing war could be ended by a peace treaty without UKraine giving up Crimea for good, together with at least a terrestrial corridor linking it with Russia proper --- unless, that is, the Russian army in Ukraine is utterly annihilated and the Ukrainian army could march unopposed into Russian territory, but this case, besides being implausible in itself, would moreover prompt Putin to order the use of nukes, and then see above.
Quote from: Que on January 14, 2023, 01:32:43 AMPutin keeps changing generals amidst growing rivalry between different factions at the Kremlin!
Interesting article (Radio Free Europe) on military aspects and palace politics:
Surovikin's Down, Gerasimov's Up: Russia's War On Ukraine Pivots Into Politics (https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gerasimov-ukraine-commander-politics-war-surovikin/32220840.html)
I'm tempted to say that eventually Putin will assume the command himself, following in the steps of Hitler --- but I'm not going to say it for fear that Todd will invoke once again Godwin's law. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 03:48:31 AMI'll have to disagree with this radical stance, if only because there's no warranty that Putin's successor would be more trustful and honest --- in fact, I'm sure that whoever succeeds him would be just as dishonest and untrustworthy, if not more. Plus, a cornered Putin might go crazy for good and order the use of nukes and I don't think anyone in his minds would want to gamble on whether the generals will disobey his orders.
In my sincere opinion (and you all know by now that I am a staunch and implacable Russophobe) Zelensky's maximalist rhetoric is misguided. There is really no way this effing war could be ended by a peace treaty without UKraine giving up Crimea for good, together with at least a terrestrial corridor linking it with Russia proper --- unless, that is, the Russian army in Ukraine is utterly annihilated and the Ukrainian army could march unopposed into Russian territory, but this case, besides being implausible in itself, would moreover prompt Putin to order the use of nukes, and then see above.
Agree that it's not a matter of removing Putin
per se. That would be hard to do from outside Russia and, I agree too, that a successor from amongst top Russian today wouldn't necessarily be an improvement.
What is necessary is to thoroughly thwart Putin's imperialist, anti-NATO & EU goals.Even apart from Ukrainian military successes progress has been made:
- The EU has not be weaken;
- Germany and others affected will survive the fuel shortages;
- NATO has not been weakened, if fact it is made stronger with the Finnish and Swedish applications and there are likely to be others.
- Chinese support for Russia has been tepid;
- Turkey, India, and others who haven't thoroughly denounced Russian, have been passively neutral at worst;
- As for military support for Ukraine, this is ramping up, not down.
Also by now it must be evident even to Putin not to mention his lackeys that:
- Support for Russia within Ukraine was grossly over estimated, and
- The effectiveness of the Russian military was grossly overestimated.
While it isn't the moment for Ukraine to join NATO, the organization should demonstrate a willingness to consider the memberships of current non-member states,
viz. Austria, Ireland, Malta, Moldova, and Serbia.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 14, 2023, 04:30:20 AMprogress has been made:
- The EU has not be weaken;
- Germany and others affected will survive the fuel shortages;
- NATO has not been weakened, if fact it is made stronger with the Finnish and Swedish applications and there are likely to be others.
- Chinese support for Russia has been tepid;
- Turkey, India, and others who haven't thoroughly denounced Russian, have been passively neutral at worst;
- As for military support for Ukraine, this is ramping up, not down.
Agreed.
QuoteAlso by now it must be evident even to Putin not to mention his lackeys that:
- Support for Russia within Ukraine was grossly over estimated, and
- The effectiveness of the Russian military was grossly overestimated.
Ditto.
QuoteWhile it isn't the moment for Ukraine to join NATO,
Ukraine will never join NATO short of WWIII and its aftermath, assuming there will be an aftermath.
Quotethe organization should demonstrate a willingness to consider the memberships of current non-member states, viz. Austria, Ireland, Malta, Moldova, and Serbia.
Hey, beware! You're playing directly into Todd's hands with the above. ;D
As long as none of those countries have declared their desire to join, let alone officially applied for NATO membership (and honestly I'm greatly puzzled by your inclusion of Serbia, where anti-NATO sentiment / resentment is prevalent --- and rightly so, if you ask me), there is no need for NATO to encourage them to do so and I'm sure there will be no such encouragement. Plus, Moldova has unresolved (and possibly unresolvable) territorial issues that preclude them for applying to begin with.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 14, 2023, 05:01:42 AMThey've never accepted Kosovo's independence,
Romania (alongside
Spain,
Slovakia,
Cyprus and
Greece within
EU) doesn't recognize Kosovo's independence and rightly so. ;D
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 14, 2023, 05:01:42 AMountries like Ireland and Austria are in no way going to apply for membership off their own bat.
Ireland, Austria and Malta are perfectly safe from any Russian aggression in any foreseeable future. Let's not paint the devil blacker than he is. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 04:56:54 AMAs long as none of those countries have declared their desire to join, let alone officially applied for NATO membership (and honestly I'm greatly puzzled by your inclusion of Serbia, where anti-NATO sentiment / resentment is prevalent --- and rightly so, if you ask me), there is no need for NATO to encourage them to do so and I'm sure there will be no such encouragement. Plus, Moldova has unresolved (and possibly unresolvable) territorial issues that preclude them for applying to begin with.
You will note that I said that NATO ought to "
demonstrate a willingness to consider membership for ...". I chose my words: I
didn't say that NATO ought to immediately offer or actively encourage their memberships. NATO membership has always been voluntary, (despite Toddian arguments to the contrary).
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 14, 2023, 05:24:30 AMhave no idea what you mean by that last sentence.
I mean that Russia is not going to invade Ireland, Austria or Malta any time soon.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 14, 2023, 05:24:48 AMI said that NATO ought to "demonstrate a willingness to consider membership for ..."
But, my friend, this is redundant. NATO will always be willing to, nay, will always do, consider an official application. I remind you that Romania officially applied for membership in 1993, together with Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and was admitted in 2004, after Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, which were admitted in 1999 - thus giving a big lie to any claim that NATO's expansion was accomplished at the mere dictation of the USA.
Quote from: LKB on January 13, 2023, 12:18:49 PMPutin cannot be trusted, so he needs to be either removed from power or destroyed.
Comical tough guy talk.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 14, 2023, 04:30:20 AMAgree that it's not a matter of removing Putin per se. That would be hard to do from outside Russia and, I agree too, that a successor from amongst top Russian today wouldn't necessarily be an improvement. What is necessary is to thoroughly thwart Putin's imperialist, anti-NATO & EU goals.
Even apart from Ukrainian military successes progress has been made:
- The EU has not be weaken;
- Germany and others affected will survive the fuel shortages;
- NATO has not been weakened, if fact it is made stronger with the Finnish and Swedish applications and there are likely to be others.
- Chinese support for Russia has been tepid;
- Turkey, India, and others who haven't thoroughly denounced Russian, have been passively neutral at worst;
- As for military support for Ukraine, this is ramping up, not down.
Also by now it must be evident even to Putin not to mention his lackeys that:
- Support for Russia within Ukraine was grossly over estimated, and
- The effectiveness of the Russian military was grossly overestimated.
While it isn't the moment for Ukraine to join NATO, the organization should demonstrate a willingness to consider the memberships of current non-member states, viz. Austria, Ireland, Malta, Moldova, and Serbia.
This is basically incomprehensible emotionalism applied to international relations. The last sentence demonstrates how it can turn as comical as tough guy rhetoric about removing or destroying Putin.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 14, 2023, 05:01:42 AMNATO doesn't drum up membership
It does.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 14, 2023, 05:26:39 AMNATO doesn't demonstrate a willingness to consider membership until such time as a country applies for membership.
The language of the Joint Statement on the U.S.-Ukraine Strategic Partnership indicates otherwise.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 14, 2023, 05:28:30 AMWell, since I never suggested that it was, it was a pointless observation. Way to divert an attempt to agree with you.
Come on,
Howard, why must you always be so nitpicking? You said you didn't know what I meant, I exolicitated what I meant, now that I did it you're even less satisfied than before... For God's sake, we're on the same side of the fence, we should be friends or at least on friendly terms, shouldn't we? Well, as far as I'm concerned, I consider you, if not exactly a friend, at least certainly not a foe. Remember our discussion about licquorice? I enjoyed it very much. ;)
(https://i.gifer.com/origin/b3/b3445c93edd9e34c71b34671fe25f54f_w200.gif)
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 14, 2023, 05:50:56 AMFunny thing about that: it's a joint US/Ukrainian statement, not a NATO-wide one. So, even if the US considers NATO membership before a country applies for it, that's quite different from what I actually wrote (no surprise there, then).
What you wrote is detached from reality. The NATO communique from June of 2021 is referenced, and that document together with the White House publication very clearly indicate that the fix is in.
I understand the desire for people who live in vassal states to pretend that NATO is something other than it actually is.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 05:59:32 AMI understand the desire for people who live in vassal states to pretend that NATO is something other than it actually is.
I am Romanian therefore I put Romanian interest first and foremost before any other. Accordingly, I'd rather be a US vassal than a Russian one. Like it or not, it's as simple as that --- and I am sure that, had you been born a Romanian too, you'd have thought alike.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 06:08:18 AMI am Romanian therefore I put Romanian interest first and foremost before any other. Accordingly, I'd rather be a US vassal than a Russian one. Like it or not, it's as simple as that --- and I am sure that, had you been born a Romanian too, you'd have thought alike.
I completely understand the desire of people who live in smaller countries prone to domination to choose the (much) lesser of two evils. It's perfectly rational. In practical terms, most imperial subjects of the US have to worry only about the US exporting inflation and recession through economic policies. Maybe they lose some national champions in select industries or have to accept certain US products from time to time. Some countries may have to accept a US military presence. If I lived in a vassal state or potential vassal state, I'd take that in a heartbeat over Russian or Chinese domination.
As an American, it is clear to me that US economic policies, domestic and trade, harm large portions of the population, and that the military-industrial complex erodes the liberty of the citizenry. These are critically important issues. The fate of a country of 10, 25, 50 million or whatever is much less important. In some cases, it has no importance at all.
A pertinent quote potentially worth reading:
Quote from: James MadisonOf all the evils to public liberty, war is perhaps the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops every other. War is the patent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes. And armies, and debts, and taxes, are the known instruments for bringing the many under the dominion of the few. In war, too, the discretionary power of the executive is extended; its influence in dealing out offices, honors, and emoluments is multiplied; and all the means of seducing the minds are added to those of subduing the force of the people! No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.
But the world is a fundamentally different place now, etc.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 05:59:32 AMWhat you wrote is detached from reality. The NATO communique from June of last year is referenced, and that document together with the White House very clearly indicate that the fix is in.
I understand the desire for people who live in vassal states to pretend that NATO is something other than it actually is.
Your desire to reject the sovereignty of every country in Europe bar Russia is also understandable. It's pathetic and weirdly reminiscent of Donald Trump, but it's understandable.
Edit: Remember folks, this is the same guy who a couple of days ago was suddenly emphasising how bad it would be to add Finland and Sweden to NATO unless every single member agreed. So who was pretending something different about what NATO was then, eh? The position changes simply on the basis of which view is going to to be the more contrary.
Nobody asked me if I want to be born to a vassal state or somewhere else such as the United States. So I was born in Finland, a country that is ranked much higher than the United States when it comes to quality of live. At the moment we have a little more problems because our big neighbour has gone full terror state, but otherwise Finland is one of the best countries in the World to live in despite of cold dark winter. Todd could have been born anywhere in the World: Canada, Iran, South-Africa, Chile, Italy, Oman,... but he was born in the country that brainwashes its citizen to think they live in the best country in the World, but the the US reigns supreme in things such as biggest military power, most obese people and most people incarcerated per capita.
I don't mind living in a vassal state because things are so good: I have got free education, universal healthcare, one of the best quality tap water in the World, lots of beautiful nature, clean air, functioning democracy with hardly any corruption, safety, high food security,... ...even the cold dark winters aren't that bad when you get used to them. At least we have got four distinct seasons!
The US is in the process of selling F-16 fighters to Turkey and that will likely make Turkey much more willing to allow Sweden and Finland into NATO.
Finland is part of EU, which is an area of about 500 million people. Not that small.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:21:02 AMTodd could have been born anywhere in the World: Canada, Iran, South-Africa, Chile, Italy, Oman,... but he was born in the country that brainwashes its citizen to think they live in the best country in the World, but the the US reigns supreme in things such as biggest military power, most obese people and most people incarcerated per capita.
Per GMG, I hate the US. Per GMG, I think the US is the greatest country in the world.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:21:02 AMFinland is part of EU, which is an area of about 500 million people. Not that small.
The EU has about 447 million people. One of the problems with GMG is that it is usually devoid of even basic facts, easily obtained from any search engine.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:21:02 AMNobody asked me if I want to be born to a vassal state or somewhere else such as the United States. So I was born in Finland, a country that is ranked much higher than the United States when it comes to quality of live. At the moment we have a little more problems because our big neighbour has gone full terror state, but otherwise Finland is one of the best countries in the World to live in despite of cold dark winter. Todd could have been born anywhere in the World: Canada, Iran, South-Africa, Chile, Italy, Oman,... but he was born in the country that brainwashes its citizen to think they live in the best country in the World, but the the US reigns supreme in things such as biggest military power, most obese people and most people incarcerated per capita.
I don't mind living in a vassal state because things are so good: I have got free education, universal healthcare, one of the best quality tap water in the World, lots of beautiful nature, clean air, functioning democracy with hardly any corruption, safety, high food security,... ...even the cold dark winters aren't that bad when you get used to them. At least we have got fours distinct seasons!
The US is in the process of selling F-16 fighters to Turkey and that will likely make Turkey much more willing to allow Sweden and Finland into NATO.
Finland is part of EU, which is an area of about 500 million people. Not that small.
I'm not in Europe, but yeah, we also regularly beat the USA on all sorts of quality of life measures. And I have spent my life in one of the world's most liveable cities. So I'm okay with that.
Membership in the imperial club has a range of costs/benefits. The costs appear much higher for a select group of defector states that intend the destruction of one or more neighbors.
This should be understood. Russia, China, N. Korea and Iran don't need to destroy the enemies they choose to have. It's the need they need. The US situation doesn't require an enemy at the metaphysical level, and this becomes apparent when we get a Peace Threat like in the '90s.
When this happens many Americans leap to the conclusion that It Was All A Big Misunderstanding! Far from needing an enemy US citizens will be tempted to think enemies were dreamed up by the Military Industrial Complex (peace, blessing, cash.....). Even Presidents catch the bug and start counting Peace Dividends.
It's embarrassing, which means it should be. I get how Germany with its history could easily slip into dreamland under the protection of the World Police. But for my fellow Americans, it's just wow!
There's no way for the guarantor of the world cooperator network to resign from its position. No ideology can provide that. Trump didn't make a dent. Neither will the end of Globalism 2.0 or the beginning of whatever 3.0 turns out to be. The US has motive and means and the situation will continue until one or both run out.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 06:19:47 AMThe fate of a country of 10, 25, 50 million or whatever is much less important. In some cases, it has no importance at all.
I guess 9/11 didn't matter at all. Only 3000 died. Not even one million! You are an asssssshole!!! You are hopeless and you should be banned from this board.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:27:47 AMI guess 9/11 didn't matter at all. Only 3000 died. Not even one million! You are an asssssshole!!! You are hopeless and you should be banned from this board.
China and India has the biggest population so they only matter.
I do not see a similar degree of moral outrage on this board when it comes to the deaths of five million plus Congolese in the two Congo wars, nor the hundreds of thousands of dead in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc. Eurocentrism ensures that the fate of white people receives more attention. And outrage.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:27:47 AMI guess 9/11 didn't matter at all. Only 3000 died. Not even one million! You are an asssssshole!!! You are hopeless and you should be banned from this board.
Or we could just drop a bomb on Oregon. It's not a big enough state to matter.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 07:31:09 AMI do not see a similar degree of moral outrage on this board when it comes to the deaths of five million plus Congolese in the two Congo wars, nor the hundreds of thousands of dead in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc. Eurocentrism ensures that the fate of white people receives more attention. And outrage.
I can't speak for everybody, but I have never been okay with wars anywhere. I want peace EVERYWHERE including Congo.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 14, 2023, 07:45:49 AMyou're being an idiot.
You've gone off on this idiotic tangent, not me.
Back on the ignore list you go. This time for good, you goon.
Okay. I'll let others judge the matter and if they rule in your favor I will submit.
Quote from: Madiel on January 14, 2023, 07:36:28 AMOr we could just drop a bomb on Oregon. It's not a big enough state to matter.
As an Australian you can afford think that, but Oregon has the same population as Finland...
Time of exit this thread of bad vibes and misery. Time to listen to Mozart's Divertimenti!
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:51:00 AMI can't speak for everybody, but I have never been okay with wars anywhere. I want peace EVERYWHERE including Congo.
First, I thought I was on your ignore list.
Second, and more important, it was not until a white European country was attacked by another kind of European country (Russia's Europeanness is poster dependent) that a thread was devoted to a war. Far more people have died in other conflicts and there has been no similar outpouring of moral outrage on this forum.
Third, war is horrific. All powers involved with or interested in the outcome should be pushing for a negotiated settlement to the Russo-Ukrainian War. The US should immediately cease all financial and military support for Ukraine, publicly call for a ceasefire, and publicly offer direct negotiations with Russia, with no topic of discussion off the table. The topics should include not only guaranteed Ukrainian neutrality, but also a diminution of NATO.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 07:31:09 AMI do not see a similar degree of moral outrage on this board when it comes to the deaths of five million plus Congolese in the two Congo wars, nor the hundreds of thousands of dead in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc. Eurocentrism ensures that the fate of white people receives more attention. And outrage.
Classic whataboutism. This thread is about a particular war. Nothing is preventing you starting a different thread about a different war.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:55:59 AMAs an Australian you can afford think that, but Oregon has the same population as Finland...
I don't think that. I was employing Todd's own argument to Todd's own location.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 07:26:06 AMThe EU has about 447 million people. One of the problems with GMG is that it is usually devoid of even basic facts, easily obtained from any search engine.
The above, in reply to this:
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:21:02 AMFinland is part of EU, which is an area of about 500 million people. Not that small.
If about 500 million is not an accurate aproximation of 447 million then either (1) 71dB is an idiot, or (2) Todd is an idiot. Pick your choice, folks, mine is (2) by a wide margin.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:59:47 AMTime to listen to Mozart's Divertimenti!
Stick to it,
Poju!
Quote from: drogulus on January 14, 2023, 07:27:27 AMThe US has motive and means and the situation will continue until one or both run out.
Hear, hear, hear.... And those means are to a significant extent derived from the US being in the privileged position it is, which is therefore for a substantial part self sustaining. Fine by me, BTW.
The US is the modern, global equivalent of the Roman Empire, but without the slavery (if you don't count the domestic disenfranchised).
But this thread is not about the US. I don't agree with Todd's argument that the US has nothing to gain from this war - it has significant stakes in its outcome - but frankly: I do not care... Just call me eurocentric. 8)
Quote from: Que on January 14, 2023, 08:09:55 AMThe US is the modern, global equivalent of the Roman Empire
I've been making this point since I can't remember when and I recommended Todd to read
Theodor Mommsen's
|The Roman History, which, besides being a Nobel Prize for Literature book back in the times when such a prize really meant quality, is illuminating and very actual. All I got in reply was something to the effect that,
I'll be damned if I read a three-volume-book written in German. Talk about getting one's facts straight from the most authorized sources.
Quote from: Que on January 14, 2023, 08:09:55 AMBut this thread is not about the US. I don't agree with Todd's argument that the US has nothing to gain from this war - it has significant stakes in its outcome
What are those significant stakes?
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 08:19:49 AM...is illuminating and very actual.
What does "very actual" mean?
Also, GMG is not a book club.
500 million included UK. Until recently they were part of EU.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 08:01:17 AMFirst, I thought I was on your ignore list.
Second, and more important, it was not until a white European country was attacked by another kind of European country (Russia's Europeanness is poster dependent) that a thread was devoted to a war. Far more people have died in other conflicts and there has been no similar outpouring of moral outrage on this forum.
Third, war is horrific. All powers involved with or interested in the outcome should be pushing for a negotiated settlement to the Russo-Ukrainian War. The US should immediately cease all financial and military support for Ukraine, publicly call for a ceasefire, and publicly offer direct negotiations with Russia, with no topic of discussion off the table. The topics should include not only guaranteed Ukrainian neutrality, but also a diminution of NATO.
You are but I see your posts because other people who I don't ignore quote you.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 08:24:46 AM500 million included UK. Until recently they were part of EU.
I suppose pretending things didn't happen when offering inaccurate information is one way to go.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 08:27:12 AMYou are but I see your posts because other people who I don't ignore quote you.
Why do you read them?
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 08:20:00 AMWhat does "very actual" mean?
It means that if you read the book you would notice how facts and trends from about 2,000 years ago correspond, mutatis mutandis, to nowadays facts and trends. Apart form that, it contains the most rational and reasonable account I've ever read about how and why empires start and grow inevitably and often against their own wish --- but what do I know, I'm just a goon.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 08:08:05 AMStick to it, Poju!
I try but people, even Todd, keep quoting my posts! That said K. 287 is so nice!
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 08:20:00 AMGMG is not a book club.
True but I should have thought that the original language a book is written on was of no consequence regarding the content.
If I may ask, what other language besides English do you read or speak?
It's hilarious and bizarre how Todd keeps insisting the way to end a war in Ukraine where the Ukrainian army is fighting is to offer negotiations in which Ukraine is not a party.
Who wants to buy Todd's house? I'm putting it on the market. Realistic offers only.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 08:01:17 AMThe US should immediately cease all financial and military support for Ukraine, publicly call for a ceasefire, and publicly offer direct negotiations with Russia, with no topic of discussion off the table. The topics should include not only guaranteed Ukrainian neutrality, but also a diminution of NATO.
Just as I said: your views coincide to a great extent with Putin's.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 08:29:13 AMIt means that if you read the book you would notice how facts and trends from about 2,000 years ago correspond, mutatis mutandis, to nowadays facts and trends.
I am more focused on reading more recent scholarship on the same general topic, given additional scholarly work in the intervening years, improved economic analysis, etc. Authors like Paul Kennedy and Ronald Findlay are more my speed.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 08:35:03 AMIf I may ask, what other language besides English do you read or speak?
This has been covered on GMG before. You can use the search function.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 08:36:47 AMJust as I said: your views coincide to a great extent with Putin's.
Not really.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 08:38:41 AMThis has been covered on GMG before. You can use the search function.
Yeah, yeah, blah, blah.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 08:44:24 AMYeah, yeah, blah, blah.
Excellent.
Since you are very learned and well-read, can you offer a brief comparison of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the outdated scholarship of Mommsen and the more recent scholarship of Findlay?
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:21:02 AMNobody asked me if I want to be born to a vassal state or somewhere else such as the United States. So I was born in Finland, a country that is ranked much higher than the United States when it comes to quality of live. At the moment we have a little more problems because our big neighbour has gone full terror state, but otherwise Finland is one of the best countries in the World to live in despite of cold dark winter. Todd could have been born anywhere in the World: Canada, Iran, South-Africa, Chile, Italy, Oman,... but he was born in the country that brainwashes its citizen to think they live in the best country in the World, but the the US reigns supreme in things such as biggest military power, most obese people and most people incarcerated per capita.
I don't mind living in a vassal state because things are so good: I have got free education, universal healthcare, one of the best quality tap water in the World, lots of beautiful nature, clean air, functioning democracy with hardly any corruption, safety, high food security,... ...even the cold dark winters aren't that bad when you get used to them. At least we have got four distinct seasons!
The US is in the process of selling F-16 fighters to Turkey and that will likely make Turkey much more willing to allow Sweden and Finland into NATO.
Finland is part of EU, which is an area of about 500 million people. Not that small.
My understanding of "greatest country" might (heh!) differ from what other Americans mean by it. Most people hold to a subjective view and don't try to evaluate a set of criteria. That's fine, there's nothing wrong with thinking you're ideally located when you live in a rich country with democratic rights.
But, but......what if someone wanted to try to apply a set of objective criteria, so that great meant something that has wide impact around the world? Then it might matter to the citizens of a small country next to a terror state what kind of greatness might be valuable to them.
To Americans who wave flags and shout America is the greatest blah blah I don't have much to say. I don't care for the parochial view here any more than any other Stan. But then there's the other way of looking at it that doesn't have to do with the shouting and boasting.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 08:54:54 AMcan you offer a brief comparison of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the outdated scholarship of Mommsen and the more recent scholarship of Findlay?
I have not read Findlay so I can't comment. On the other hand, you have not read Mommsen and you haughtily dismissed the very idea of reading him, but you signal to know for certain it's outdated with respect to the topic of how empires start and grow. That's fine with me but allow me to believe that professional historians would take a different stance.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 14, 2023, 07:51:00 AMI can't speak for everybody, but I have never been okay with wars anywhere.
I fail to see what never being OK with war has to do with the reality of war when it comes to a country, or the circumstances that make it unlikely that war should come to a small country next to a terror state.
You know, it's possible to have feelings and thoughts at the same time. Sometimes they pull in different directions, and they bloody well should.
Empires can be hated out of existence just like wars.
I don't bother with that. People can feel whatever they want.
Effective war prevention interests me far more than performative righteousness. Why Putin doesn't invade Poland is of a piece with why he does invade Ukraine or I'll need a bigger boat theory. Duhh dum......
Serious people might want to explore the results of the recent CSIS China-Taiwan war games. Others (you know who you are) need not.
1) China is likely to lose.
2) The cost to the defenders will be staggering. At least 2 aircraft carriers will be sunk.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 09:04:26 AMThat's fine with me but allow me to believe that professional historians would take a different stance.
See my signature.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 09:52:05 AMSee my signature.
Life is opinion --- meaning that my opinion is as good as yours or Bernard the Bear's. Fine with me.
People would rather believe than know --- meaning that you would rather believe than know. Fine with me as well.
Propaganda death ensemble --- you'd have to explain it to me, my English is not good enough to make head or tail of it.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 09:57:04 AMLife is opinion --- meaning that my opinion is as good as yours or Bernard the Bear's. Fine with me.
People would rather believe than know --- meaning that you would rather believe than know. Fine with me as well.
Propaganda death ensemble --- you'd have to explain it to me, my English is not good enough to make head or tail of it.
Pretty good.
An interesting article about life in Russia right now. And how little impact the war and sanctions are having for most people.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-15/life-on-russias-home-front-after-ten-months-of-war-in-ukraine/101852210
Quote from: drogulus on January 14, 2023, 09:45:03 AMSerious people might want to explore the results of the recent CSIS China-Taiwan war games. Others (you know who you are) need not.
1) China is likely to lose.
2) The cost to the defenders will be staggering. At least 2 aircraft carriers will be sunk.
Interesting. Here's the link:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
I've also seen it claimed that China has much less ability to survive the kind of sanctions Russia has experienced and that China's demographic collapse is going to occupy its attention more and more in the next few years. I have to hope we never get to this, of course.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 09:04:26 AMI have not read Findlay so I can't comment. On the other hand, you have not read Mommsen and you haughtily dismissed the very idea of reading him, but you signal to know for certain it's outdated with respect to the topic of how empires start and grow. That's fine with me but allow me to believe that professional historians would take a different stance.
Findlay is an economics professor (used to be, he died 2021), I doubt he wrote about empire.
I hate to say it Mommsen was a venerable professor, author and classicist, but he's from the mid-nineteenth century! So much has happened in Roman history since then.
Quote from: Florestan on January 14, 2023, 09:04:26 AMI have not read Findlay so I can't comment. On the other hand, you have not read Mommsen and you haughtily dismissed the very idea of reading him, but you signal to know for certain it's outdated with respect to the topic of how empires start and grow. That's fine with me but allow me to believe that professional historians would take a different stance.
Todd need not go back to the Roman Empire, he need only go back to 1938.
Quote from: Herman on January 15, 2023, 03:04:49 AMFindlay is an economics professor (used to be, he died 2021), I doubt he wrote about empire.
So you are not familiar with the work I reference.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 15, 2023, 04:14:07 AMTodd need not go back to the Roman Empire, he need only go back to 1938.
Godwin's Law.
Quote from: drogulus on January 14, 2023, 09:13:52 AMI fail to see what never being OK with war has to do with the reality of war when it comes to a country ....
"Those who do not wield a sword may nevertheless die on one."
Ukraine news – live: Toll from Russian strike on Dnipro rises to 20 as Sunak confirms tanks supply to Kyiv (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russian-putin-war-challenger-2-tank-b2262435.html)
Only 20 dead so far in the latest missile strike in this war of attrition. Or at least, only 20 reported dead. The Ukrainians have been lying about the death toll, at least if US military reports can be considered reliable. I know Russia was supposed to have run out of such weapons by now, but this time they really are close to being depleted. Let's keep up the current policy. Let's fight Russia to the very last Ukrainian if need be.
Quote from: Todd on January 15, 2023, 05:00:30 AMGodwin's Law.
Of course, Godwin's Law: Godwin implied that the case of Nazi Germany was so horrifically unique, (
Nazi exceptionalism), that comparisons to it are irrelevant or grossly hyperbolic.
... Unfortunately that is frequently not the case.
The Nazis were a budding/wannabe Empire, the US is a post peak Empire, Russia is an already crumbled Empire fighting against falling further into mediocrity. That's why Rome is a more relevant reference than anything 1938 (The crumbling Empire back then was the British one but there wasn't a similar or analogue situation to today.)
Quote from: Fëanor on January 15, 2023, 07:20:52 AMOf course, Godwin's Law: Godwin implied that the case of Nazi Germany was so horrifically unique, (Nazi exceptionalism), that comparisons to it are irrelevant or grossly hyperbolic.
... Unfortunately that is frequently not the case.
Doubling down on Godwin's Law while ignoring facts. Excellent.
One would think that people would try just that little bit harder to come up with an irrelevant and completely incorrect historical comparison. Here's a fun article: How Americans Described Evil Before Hitler (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/can-we-compare-donald-trump-hitler/572194/)
I say bring back Nebuchadnezzar!
Quote from: Jo498 on January 15, 2023, 07:29:26 AMThe Nazis were a budding/wannabe Empire, the US is a post peak Empire, Russia is an already crumbled Empire fighting against falling further into mediocrity. That's why Rome is a more relevant reference than anything 1938 (The crumbling Empire back then was the British one but there wasn't a similar or analogue situation to today.)
You and your accurate summation.
Quote from: Todd on January 15, 2023, 07:31:08 AMDoubling down on Godwin's Law while ignoring facts. Excellent.
One would think that people would try just that little bit harder to come up with an irrelevant and completely incorrect historical comparison. Here's a fun article: How Americans Described Evil Before Hitler (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/can-we-compare-donald-trump-hitler/572194/)
Yeah, I skimmed that article: fun read as you say. But it mainly demonstrates that Hitler was not so unique. Really, the only thing unique was that he and is henchmen had
industrial means to carry out murder. (Other would have done similar if they'd had those means -- mind you, Hutus manage to kill at least 500k in Rwanda with just pangas.)
The comparison to the Munich Agreement is relevant in that Chamberlain's appeasement failed in short order because he failed to understand that Hitler's goals were much broader than Sudetenland and would not be satisfied by the gesture. The same is true your suggested solution to the Ukraine "special military operation".
Putin's goals will
not be satisfied by, say, ceding Crimea and Donbas, and I would say, not even by promising to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the EU. Putin's goal, (irrespective of likelihood of success), is direct domination of eastern Europe and the enfeeblement of liberal democracy in western Europe and beyond.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 15, 2023, 07:56:52 AMYeah, I skimmed that article: fun read as you say. But it mainly demonstrates that Hitler was not so unique. Really, the only thing unique was that he and is henchmen had industrial means to carry out murder. (Other would have done similar if they'd had those means -- mind you, Hutus manage to kill at least 500k in Rwanda with just pangas.)
The comparison to the Munich Agreement is relevant in that Chamberlain's appeasement failed in short order because he failed to understand that Hitler's goals were much broader than Sudetenland and would not be satisfied by the gesture. The same is true your suggested solution to the Ukraine "special military operation".
Putin's goals will not be satisfied by, say, ceding Crimea and Donbas, and I would say, not even by promising to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the EU. Putin's goal, (irrespective of likelihood of success), is direct domination of eastern Europe and the enfeeblement of liberal democracy in western Europe and beyond.
Tripling down in one morning. How many times can you prove Godwin's Law in one day?
Nazi Germany and Putin's Russia are not equivalent.
Go!
Putin has relied on the energy gambit to force Europe to cease their drip feed of weapons to Ukraine. That's failed.
What's a good negotiation strategy for Ukraine? It's clear to me that the drip feed, whether it was intended to force the Ukes to stop fighting or not, won't force them to negotiate their surrender. Given that, and the desire of NATO countries to bring an end to the fighting sooner rather than later, the best move would be to supply heavy weapons now now now to help the Ukes get as close to their negotiation goals as they can.
Since Russia is unmoved by the documents it signs I deem the only effective negotiations will be to ratify facts on the ground and enforce them with very heavy facts with 120mm smooth bore guns.
Quote from: Todd on January 14, 2023, 05:45:20 AMComical tough guy talk.
Actually, I have a reputation for being fairly serious, at least where music is concerned.
As for the " tough guy " part, l can say that I've survived the following:
The wrong end of a knife,
The wrong end of a gun,
Blood poisoning,
Near drowning, and
Chemical poisoning. ( This last was an attempt on my life some forty years ago, and left me with permanent brain damage. The perpetrator, on the other hand, did not survive. )
There was a time when l was comfortable with military weaponry, and I've hunted two-legged targets who were essentially indistinguishable from myself. That period didn't last very long, but l learned some valuable lessons which are still of some aide to me.
I keep one momento from my old life, a sanitized copy of a document which required a Q-Clearance, back in the day. I was granted possession on the condition that l surrender it upon request, which of course I'll be happy to do. ( I once [ and only once ] showed this document to a good friend who held the same clearance, and it was fun watching his eyes pop... )
So, does any of that make me " tough "?
Maybe... but at times l suspect l was lucky to escape unscathed, and certainly didn't in the one instance.
ln any event, l would say that making assumptions about your fellow posters here - about whom you know essentially nothing - may be inadvisable. Everyone has their own story, and some may not reside within your range of experience.
Quote from: LKB on January 15, 2023, 08:33:31 AMActually, I have a reputation for being fairly serious, at least where music is concerned.
As for the " tough guy " part, l can say that I've survived the following:
The wrong end of a knife,
The wrong end of a gun,
Blood poisoning,
Near drowning, and
Chemical poisoning. ( This last was an attempt on my life some forty years ago, and left me with permanent brain damage. The perpetrator, on the other hand, did not survive. )
There was a time when l was comfortable with military weaponry, and I've hunted two-legged targets who were essentially indistinguishable from myself. That period didn't last very long, but l learned some valuable lessons which are still of some aide to me.
I keep one momento from my old life, a sanitized copy of a document which required a Q-Clearance, back in the day. I was granted possession on the condition that l surrender it upon request, which of course I'll be happy to do. ( I once [ and only once ] showed this document to a good friend who held the same clearance, and it was fun watching his eyes pop... )
So, does any of that make me " tough "?
Maybe... but at times l suspect l was lucky to escape unscathed, and certainly didn't in the one instance.
ln any event, l would say that making assumptions about your fellow posters here - about whom you know essentially nothing - may be inadvisable. Everyone has their own story, and some may not reside within your range of experience.
This is just so good.
You are very tough.
The question is whether it's wise to give the adversary what it wants before you sit down to talk peace.
It's not a good idea, and impractical to imagine we can give Ukraine away while they continue to fight to keep it for themselves.
The present war came after Putin ignored the terms of agreements made. Will he keep to a new one?
I wouldn't. I've got peacemongers across the table from me, and there's nothing better than that!
Quote from: Herman on January 15, 2023, 03:04:49 AMI hate to say it Mommsen was a venerable professor, author and classicist, but he's from the mid-nineteenth century! So much has happened in Roman history since then.
Like what? Cesar survived assassination? Anthony defeated Octavian Augustus? Rome failed to conquer Hispania?
More "liberal/neocon" analysis:
Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-half-global-strategists-think-181818239.html)
(Another article on fortune.com, different author)
The benefits of Russia's coming disintegration (https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-russia-benefits-disintegration/)
(Politico.eu)
Quote from: Todd on January 15, 2023, 08:04:39 AMNazi Germany and Putin's Russia are not equivalent.
Go!
Right you are, but I'm not talking about the equivalence of Nazi Germany and Putin's Russia. I talking about why appeasement of Putin in case of Ukraine will would have an failure equivalent to that of Munich Agreement on account of a misunderstanding of Putin's actual objectives as of Hitler's.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 15, 2023, 09:58:56 AMI talking about why appeasement of Putin in case of Ukraine will would have an failure equivalent to that of Munich Agreement on account of a misunderstanding of Putin's actual objectives as of Hitler's.
Quadrupling down. I should probably start a counter.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 15, 2023, 09:51:10 AMI'm not convinced by this statement from the second of those articles: "Post-Russian states are instead likely to pursue nuclear disarmament — much like Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan after the Soviet demise."
I mean: giving up its inherited nuclear weapons didn't do much good for Ukraine, now did it?!
I think the lesson from the likes of Libya and Ukraine is: if you've got weapons of mass destruction, keep hold of them come what may. Especially if you border Russia (or are flying time away from NATO!)
Agreed!
Quote from: Que on January 15, 2023, 09:43:24 AMMore "liberal/neocon" analysis:
Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-half-global-strategists-think-181818239.html/)
(Another article on fortune.com, different author)
Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years (https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-russia-benefits-disintegrat%5Bquote%20author=Que%20link=msg=1490796%20date=1673808204%5DMore%20"liberal/neocon"%20analysis:%5Burl="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-half-global-strategists-think-181818239.html)
(Another article on fortune.com, different author)
The benefits of Russia's coming disintegration (https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-russia-benefits-disintegration/)
(Politico.eu)
The first article falls into the category of neocon analysis, but at the very outset its premises are flawed. I have doubts that the Atlantic Council picked a highly diverse set of analytical opinions. Also note that ten-year timelines are very useful since if the predictions fail to materialize, people who make such predictions can always claim that conditions changed. Ten-year timelines are very popular for budget analyses for this reason.
The Politico piece goes beyond neocon analysis into the realm of fantasy.
Though the rhetorical question in the title has been at least temporarily answered, I suggest reading this slightly longer peace from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace from 2019 (even understanding that they are probably Russian stooges):
Thirty Years of U.S. Policy Toward Russia: Can the Vicious Circle Be Broken? (https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/20/thirty-years-of-u.s.-policy-toward-russia-can-vicious-circle-be-broken-pub-79323)
Russia wants its empire back. Putin doesn't need a provocation. He'll claim he's provoked, and knows his claim will be echoed.
Poor Vladdy, NATO meanies are forcing him to do what he wants to do. Even worse, they're forcing the Ukes to defend themselves.
From Carnegie:
Russia, with its disruptive and often rogue actions, bears a major share of the responsibility for the deterioration in the relationship. But U.S. policy toward Russia has largely ignored such crucial factors as Russia's history, culture, geography, and security requirements—as they are seen from Moscow.
I agree with the last sentence. If we had taken into consideration the importance of imperial war for Russia as history, culture, geography and security from their own perspective has for the Russian leadership, NATO wouldn't have acted so fecklessly. We would have been better prepared. Instead, we ignored these lessons and pursued a fantasy of normalization.
Quote from: Todd on January 15, 2023, 08:04:39 AMTripling down in one morning. How many times can you prove Godwin's Law in one day?
Nazi Germany and Putin's Russia are not equivalent.
Go!
You are using the term Godwin's Law as a mindless buzzword and have failed to grasp its meaning and significance. As Mike Godwin himself said:
"If you're thoughtful about it and show some real awareness of history, go ahead and refer to Hitler..."
When the subject is appeasement of autocrats with imperialist ambitions, citing Hitler is perfectly apt. But snide buzzwords are easier than counterarguments.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 15, 2023, 02:09:18 PMYou are using the term Godwin's Law as a mindless buzzword and have failed to grasp it's meaning and significance.
Incorrect.
Why Russia was always going to, had to, invade the Ukraine now!
Why this is China's last decade!
I don't know. Of course I always laugh a bit when someone is so confident and I have to ask: is this guy as ridiculous as he seems? I'd like to believe some of the stuff he's saying but I just don't know about these topics. I know he's going to be highly suspicious if not downright dismissed by some because of his affiliation with Stratfor. Still, what's he wrong/right about and why? I almost started a geopolitics thread but, in the end, I don't want to be the guy. I say let everybody say whatever they want but I don't know what people want. Anyway, this is the wacky video and dude I'm talking about:
Quote from: Florestan on January 15, 2023, 09:08:18 AMLike what? Cesar survived assassination? Anthony defeated Octavian Augustus? Rome failed to conquer Hispania?
Surely you're aware that historiography does not work that way. In that case you don't need Mommsen either. You could have done with Livius. Or Gibbon's D&F.
Every generation needs a fresh look at the data, apart from the fact that new data are still emerging.
Quote from: Herman on January 16, 2023, 01:46:31 AMSurely you're aware that historiography does not work that way. In that case you don't need Mommsen either. You could have done with Livius. Or Gibbon's D&F.
Every generation needs a fresh look at the data, apart from the fact that new data are still emerging.
Sure, but you wrote this:
Quote from: Herman on January 15, 2023, 03:04:49 AMMommsen was a venerable professor, author and classicist, but he's from the mid-nineteenth century! So much has happened in Roman history since then.
I hate to say it but nothing at all (could have) happened in Roman history since mid-nineteenth century because Roman history ended in 476 in the West and in 1453 in the East. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on January 16, 2023, 02:13:35 AMI hate to say it but nothing at all (could have) happened in Roman history since mid-nineteenth century because Roman history ended in 476 in the West and in 1453 in the East. ;D
Groan. You're being incredibly literal Andrei. "in Roman history" means "in the field of Roman history".
The other meaning is possible, too... although if we are in pedantic mode, is any event "in history" when it's happening?
Quote from: Madiel on January 16, 2023, 02:33:12 AMGroan. You're being incredibly literal Andrei. "in Roman history" means "in the field of Roman history".
The other meaning is possible, too...
Had Hermann written "Roman historiography" no confusion would have been possible.
Quotealthough if we are in pedantic mode, is any event "in history" when it's happening?
Well, the last event in Western Roman history is the deposition of Romulus Augustulus, and the last event in Eastern Roman history is the Fall of Constantinople. Any other event later than that does not belong to Roman history anymore.
To get back on topic, is the Russian invasion of Ukraine "in history"? I'd say yes.
And I'd say no. It's in the news. It'll be in history later.
Quote from: Madiel on January 16, 2023, 03:06:55 AMAnd I'd say no. It's in the news. It'll be in history later.
One could put it this way, too, sure. But then again, is not the news contemporary history?
I think we're getting too philosophical, though. :D
Quote from: drogulus on January 15, 2023, 11:18:33 AM...
From Carnegie:
Russia, with its disruptive and often rogue actions, bears a major share of the responsibility for the deterioration in the relationship. But U.S. policy toward Russia has largely ignored such crucial factors as Russia's history, culture, geography, and security requirements—as they are seen from Moscow.
I agree with the last sentence. If we had taken into consideration the importance of imperial war for Russia as history, culture, geography and security from their own perspective has for the Russian leadership, NATO wouldn't have acted so fecklessly. We would have been better prepared. Instead, we ignored these lessons and pursued a fantasy of normalization.
I recently view some lectures by former US National Security Advisor, H.R. McMaster, (a short-term tenure under Trump). He advocated the USA employ
"strategic empathy".
McMaster, as I recall, attributed the term, strategic empathy, Zachary Shore, (
The Diplomate item (https://thediplomat.com/2016/05/strategic-empathy-assessing-leadership-behavior/)). What it boils down to is striving to see the circumstance from one's adversary's POV. Certainly that does involving looking at that adversary's history & culture. Our favourite (?) troll,
@Todd, pretends to advocate for this. The problem is he only goes halfway.
So Todd will say that Russians, (Putin plus Soviet nostalgists), see the Soviet empire as a good thing and NATO expansion as a threat -- all said, I suppose he's right so far.
OTOH he doesn't acknowledge the consequence of this which is Putin
et al.'s desire to reconstitute the Soviet empire and the invasion and extinction of Ukraine as but one step in that direction. That Putin simply wants to protect Russian minorities and rid Ukraine or neo-Nazis is simply nonsense.
See 'Munich Agreement'. Are Donbas and Crimea Sudetenland analogs?
Why yes, they are. To the same extent that Sudetenland wasn't Hitler's "final demand", a few Ukraine provinces aren't Putin's final demand.
But
NO, it doesn't matter what Putin's ambitions are; it doesn't matter what the dreams of the Soviet nostalgists are. We are entitled to resist them. We may do so because they are evil.
For that matter, as I have argued, they not even in the real & practical best interest of the Russia. We may resist Putin with full righteousness.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 16, 2023, 04:35:53 AMSo Todd will say that Russians, (Putin plus Soviet nostalgists), see the Soviet empire as a good thing and NATO expansion as a threat -- all said, I suppose he's right so far.
NATO was created as an alliance against the USSR. It was designed to be a threat. That is why it exists at all. NATO expansion expands the threat. (I will take it that you did not read the Carnegie piece.)
Whether Russians see the USSR and its empire as a good thing is irrelevant.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 16, 2023, 04:35:53 AMOTOH he doesn't acknowledge the consequence of this which is Putin et al.'s desire to reconstitute the Soviet empire and the invasion and extinction of Ukraine as but one step in that direction. That Putin simply wants to protect Russian minorities and rid Ukraine or neo-Nazis is simply nonsense.
This is jumbled to the point of uselessness.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 16, 2023, 04:35:53 AMSee 'Munich Agreement'. Are Donbas and Crimea Sudetenland analogs? Why yes, they are.
No, they are not at all analogous. All analogies to WWII are false analogies.
Nazi Germany was the fastest growing developed economy in the mid- and late-30s, it had the most powerful and effectively led military in the world, it was the most scientifically advanced country in the world, and it had aggressive expansionist plans paired to explicit genocidal policy. Russia today has none of these things. If any country consistently displays the first three traits today, it is the US. The US also happened to carry out one of the most thorough and comprehensive genocides in human history, one which inspired the Nazis.
I understand why people like the Nazi analogy. It is simple. Many folk like simple things.
From AP: Ukraine strike deaths hit 40; Russia seen preparing long war (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-government-business-89f2c26719d4d1930ebf64fe02289334)
The death toll from the recent strike has risen, which is to be expected. The almost surreal aspect of the headline and the text is the reporting that Russia is "preparing for a drawn-out war". It has been clear since no later than early summer of 2022 that this was the case, and it has been reported on extensively. Russia and the US are dug in. This proxy war is set to last.
One potentially disquieting bit in the article is the reporting that "[t]he Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, reported signs of the Kremlin taking steps to turn its Ukraine invasion into "a major conventional war" after months of embarrassing military reversals."
Again, this has been previously reported, so the reiteration appears to be corporate press propaganda geared toward drumming up support for the war and justifying ever increasing expenditure of American treasure. Warmongers should like the article.
NATO was not designed to attack the USSR. It was designed to slow the Soviet advance until the US arrived in numbers.
NATO is a threat to Russian expansion. It doesn't matter which Russian empire it defends against. It can be Soviet or post-Soviet. The geography, culture and history weren't wiped clean in 1991.
Russia today lacks some of the advantages Germany had in the '30s. It hasn't deterred them from attacking a country they thought was easy pickings. It turned out that Putin was wrong about Ukrainian resolve. He was also disastrously wrong in assuming that the West wouldn't be scared straight by his actions.
Quote from: Todd on January 16, 2023, 04:59:47 AMNATO was created as an alliance against the USSR. It was designed to be a threat. That is why it exists at all. NATO expansion expands the threat. (I will take it that you did not read the Carnegie piece.)
Whether Russians see the USSR and its empire as a good thing is irrelevant.
This is jumbled to the point of uselessness.
No, they are not at all analogous. All analogies to WWII are false analogies.
Nazi Germany was the fastest growing developed economy in the mid- and late-30s, it had the most powerful and effectively led military in the world, it was the most scientifically advanced country in the world, and it had aggressive expansionist plans paired to explicit genocidal policy. Russia today has none of these things. If any country consistently displays the first three traits today, it is the US. The US also happened to carry out one of the most thorough and comprehensive genocides in human history, one which inspired the Nazis.
I understand why people like the Nazi analogy. It is simple. Many folk like simple things.
I note that you did not address a single one of the points Feanor made. You've just repeated your usual false equivalencies and dodged the other issues.
NATO is a defensive alliance. It doesn't threaten Russia's territorial integrity, only its expansionist ambitions. You draw a false equivalence between Russia's threat to and assault on (in the case of Ukraine) territorial integrity and the NATO alliance's mission to protect member nations' territorial integrity against said threat. Some people like simple things. Some apparently can't comprehend them.
Jumbled? No, Feanor's statement is perfectly clear. You chose not to address it.
"All analogies to WWII are false analogies." This is just stupid. In any case, Feanor tightly delineated the parallel he was drawing. None of what you wrote addresses or is at all relevant to the point he made.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 16, 2023, 08:57:52 AMI note that you did not address a single one of the points Feanor made. You've just repeated your usual false equivalencies and dodged the other issues.
Incorrect.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 16, 2023, 08:57:52 AMNATO is a defensive alliance.
All alliances are alliances against something. NATO was an alliance against the USSR. The USSR disappeared in 1991. NATO remained. It degenerated into a needless alliance against Russia and then aggressively expanded. If one looks at its reckless, aggressive expansion over the years, it mimics the aggressive expansion of empires throughout history. Pick your preferred empire. NATO is the vehicle of American imperialism in Europe.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 16, 2023, 08:57:52 AMJumbled?
Yes.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 16, 2023, 08:57:52 AM"All analogies to WWII are false analogies." This is just stupid.
No, it is correct. My explanation of Nazi Germany in the 1930s very clearly demonstrated why all analogies are false analogies. No other power since has combined the same traits as Nazi Germany. Analogies to Nazi Germany are all intellectually lazy and dishonest. All WWII analogies are cheap rhetoric.
Quote from: Florestan on January 16, 2023, 02:46:59 AMHad Hermann written "Roman historiography" no confusion would have been possible.
You're being disingenuous.
I had written those very words. As in "Surely you're aware that historiography does not work that way," words you quoted yourself.
Trolling seems to be a requirement in this topic...
You've gotta love the insistence that World War II has no analogues when it was itself NAMED to be an analogue.
I thought this was an interesting article about Russian and Ukrainian tactics. This guy has been writing articles of this ilk throughout the war.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-17/two-battles-reveal-differences-between-russia-and-ukraine-forces/101858290
Quote from: Todd on January 16, 2023, 09:06:34 AMNo, it is correct. My explanation of Nazi Germany in the 1930s very clearly demonstrated why all analogies are false analogies. No other power since has combined the same traits as Nazi Germany. Analogies to Nazi Germany are all intellectually lazy and dishonest. All WWII analogies are cheap rhetoric.
Given that nothing in the present can match the past in every external detail outside of the aspect considered for comparison you may as well just say there's no such thing as historical analogies at all and nothing we can therefor learn from anything anyone has ever done before.
Why limit your prohibition to just WW2?
The Russians did a not so smart thing, apart from it being a war crime, by launching cruise missiles at the Ukranian town of Dnipro - with 40 civilian casualties sofar and... just days before the big Ramstein conference of Western powers on military aid to Ukraine.
Realising their tactical error:
The Kremlin claimed its forces were not responsible and pointed to an unsubstantiated theory circulating on social media that Ukrainian air defense systems had caused the damage.
"The Russian Armed Forces do not strike residential buildings or social infrastructure. They strike military targets," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/17/ukraine-missile-toll-rises-to-40-as-russia-denies-attack-a79957
The biggest support for Ukraine in defeating Russia, comes from Russia itself.... And Putin keeps digging.
Quote from: Madiel on January 16, 2023, 11:13:40 AMI thought this was an interesting article about Russian and Ukrainian tactics. This guy has been writing articles of this ilk throughout the war.
How useful is it for analysts to keep on writing and saying that the Russian tactics are wasteful, fighting heavy battles around towns that aren't strategically worth all the lives lost?
Clearly Putin and the generals see this differently, and they're the ones sending the troops in.
The point is they have a propaganda machine at home, plus unlimited hinterlands in the East from which to draw expendable troops.
The Russian strategy is the same as in Syria. They are going to torch every square mile and that's all there's to it.
Quote from: Herman on January 16, 2023, 11:09:32 PMHow useful is it for analysts to keep on writing and saying that the Russian tactics are wasteful, fighting heavy battles around towns that aren't strategically worth all the lives lost?
Clearly Putin and the generals see this differently, and they're the ones sending the troops in.
The point is they have a propaganda machine at home, plus unlimited hinterlands in the East from which to draw expendable troops.
The Russian strategy is the same as in Syria. They are going to torch every square mile and that's all there's to it.
Well without getting into philosophical discussions of what constitutes "useful", it does help explain why the larger resources of Russia did not translate into the quick victory Putin expected.
It certainly wouldn't be the first war in which what should be superiority has been squandered.
Quote from: Herman on January 16, 2023, 10:09:09 AMI had written those very words. As in "Surely you're aware that historiography does not work that way," words you quoted yourself.
You did but only after the confusion had already taken place.
That's not trolling from me, it's just persistent and pointless nitpicking. I should really stop posting in this tread, its toxicity affects my behavior in ways I myself dislike.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 16, 2023, 04:35:53 AMI recently view some lectures by former US National Security Advisor, H.R. McMaster, (a short-term tenure under Trump). He advocated the USA employ "strategic empathy".
McMaster, as I recall, attributed the term, strategic empathy, Zachary Shore, (The Diplomate item (https://thediplomat.com/2016/05/strategic-empathy-assessing-leadership-behavior/)). What it boils down to is striving to see the circumstance from one's adversary's POV. Certainly that does involving looking at that adversary's history & culture. Our favourite (?) troll, @Todd, pretends to advocate for this. The problem is he only goes halfway.
So Todd will say that Russians, (Putin plus Soviet nostalgists), see the Soviet empire as a good thing and NATO expansion as a threat -- all said, I suppose he's right so far.
OTOH he doesn't acknowledge the consequence of this which is Putin et al.'s desire to reconstitute the Soviet empire and the invasion and extinction of Ukraine as but one step in that direction. That Putin simply wants to protect Russian minorities and rid Ukraine or neo-Nazis is simply nonsense.
See 'Munich Agreement'. Are Donbas and Crimea Sudetenland analogs? Why yes, they are. To the same extent that Sudetenland wasn't Hitler's "final demand", a few Ukraine provinces aren't Putin's final demand.
But NO, it doesn't matter what Putin's ambitions are; it doesn't matter what the dreams of the Soviet nostalgists are. We are entitled to resist them. We may do so because they are evil.
For that matter, as I have argued, they not even in the real & practical best interest of the Russia. We may resist Putin with full righteousness.
The argument made by the dude in the video above is that Russia is a sick and demographically imploding society that lost control of all its natural barriers and bulwarks when the Union collapsed and that now is their last chance to field an army before they shrink into oblivion. It's that they've been trying to claw back with these conflicts and Odessa is one more they feel they need.
I can't imagine anyone thinking that'd be a good thing but I have had "friends" and acquaintances on the left argue with me for years that American military adventures on the whole over the last 50 years have come to no good. One way of looking at this seems to be that maybe it's true that Russia sees gaining back these areas as in its military interest and that the U.S. has always seen seen it's job as making sure this didn't happen?
Is this analysis wrong? I mean it's based on no knowledge so it might be 0% right. If there's any truth to it then the question is about why Russia should be opposed. There's a moral reason but I doubt that's what it is. I still think the arguments can be reiterated and made clear. I don't think this is about one troll vs. everybody else's obvious clear arguments. Rather I think there's an argument that's similar to one I've heard before from a spectrum on the left and right about the negative and wasteful effects of American power vs. a world order that guarantees some kind of stability, safety, and maybe even progress if you can argue that.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 04:21:54 AMRather I think there's an argument that's similar to one I've heard before from a spectrum on the left and right about the negative and wasteful effects of American power vs. a world order that guarantees some kind of stability, safety, and maybe even progress if you can argue that.
The fundamental problem with even this type of thinking is that it is inherently western, reliant on western concepts and ideals. It is literally impossible for many people in the west to understand this, as so many posts on this board illustrate. Attempting to impose some type of world order premised on western values is intrinsically imperialistic. And without sufficient hard power, it is just a fantasy. That leaves messy, chaotic international relations. That requires accepting that other countries have legitimate security and national interests that differ from North America and Europe. This is where grubby diplomacy comes in. People with tough guy mentalities blanch at diplomacy. Some even equate diplomacy with appeasement to show just how bad diplomacy is.
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 04:59:45 AMThe fundamental problem with even this type of thinking is that it is inherently western, reliant on western concepts and ideals. It is literally impossible for many people in the west to understand this, as so many posts on this board illustrate. Attempting to impose some type of world order premised on western values is intrinsically imperialistic. And without sufficient hard power, it is just a fantasy. That leaves messy, chaotic international relations. That requires accepting that other countries have legitimate security and national interests that differ from North America and Europe. This is where grubby diplomacy comes in. People with tough guy mentalities blanch at diplomacy. Some even equate diplomacy with appeasement to show just how bad diplomacy is.
The repetitive thoughtless copy and paste you're engaging in from somewhere is exasperating. Mindlessly parroting Russian propaganda. Of course Russia has security interests.
You know who else does? UKRAINE. Ukraine Ukraine Ukraine. The country you relentlessly refuse to talk about. The country you've at least once openly hinted shouldn't even exist.
The empty hole in absolutely all of your rhetoric is that your focus never falls on the country that is actually suffering through this war. Every so-called thought, every stupid utterance is about Russia and America. You're telling us how we need to care about Russia's security interests, when all of your posts convey that you don't give a flying fuck about Ukraine's welfare.
Quote from: Que on January 16, 2023, 10:40:48 PMThe Russians did a not so smart thing, apart from it being a war crime, by launching cruise missiles at the Ukranian town of Dnipro - with 40 civilian casualties sofar and... just days before the big Ramstein conference of Western powers on military aid to Ukraine.
Yet, somehow, it's those who support Ukrainian resistance who are the
warmongers ....
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 04:59:45 AMThe fundamental problem with even this type of thinking is that it is inherently western, reliant on western concepts and ideals. It is literally impossible for many people in the west to understand this, as so many posts on this board illustrate. Attempting to impose some type of world order premised on western values is intrinsically imperialistic. And without sufficient hard power, it is just a fantasy. That leaves messy, chaotic international relations. That requires accepting that other countries have legitimate security and national interests that differ from North America and Europe. This is where grubby diplomacy comes in. People with tough guy mentalities blanch at diplomacy. Some even equate diplomacy with appeasement to show just how bad diplomacy is.
Yes of course this "world order" is another name for imperialism to China and Russia. I see the Gray Lady is also reporting on China's demographic woes today. Maybe U.S. imperialism is just one problem of many problems out there for Jinping and Putin. We can argue about American imperialism all day I suppose but is it going anywhere? Meanwhile this war is dug in. I'm also hearing that new Russian conscripts will be coming in this spring/summer along with new equipment for the Ukrainian side. It proves to be bloody and maybe decisive one way or another. Or not. It could just keep going on and on.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 06:05:01 AMYes of course this "world order" is another name for imperialism to China and Russia.
Not just Russia and China. And it's not all about the projection of American power.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 06:05:01 AMIt could just keep going on and on.
It is a war of attrition. Russia is slowly demolishing Ukraine before our eyes. Ukraine does not have the option of mounting a large-scale invasion of Russia. Which country can last longer under these conditions? Ukraine can receive all manner of goodies from Uncle Sugar, but it cannot receive fresh new bodies to throw on the mountain of corpses.
For these reasons and others, I think a negotiated settlement is preferable. I do not know, but I suspect, various non-public discussions regarding potential settlements occur with some regularity. The US should start a vigorous public campaign to pursue a settlement.
The attractiveness of ideas that were once called Western isn't anything objectionable in itself.
Much of the world sells stuff into the US market. The US hires the world, the world saves in dollars, therefore "values". Oh, there are actual values in there, too. People can't be forced to stick with tradition when something that looks better comes with higher living standards, too.
Take China. The government hates the US and the people mostly don't. China thought at some point what US libraservatives said was true. They thought working for the Yanqui dollar meant they would own their hated foe. The realization arrived slowly, I think, that a chunk of China, the wealthy coast, was in fact under the same kind of foreign ownership as it had been since the Opium Wars. Now the race to decouple is on between the government and the foreign investors.
There's nothing in Ukraine that can compensate for the loss of BP to the Russians. Things will be worth less under Russian ownership because they can't run what they own. Now Russian "lawmakers" want to punish the million or so escapees as traitors, so they will never be able to return. That's bouncing the rubble to a beyond anything extent. It's like "let's be comic book bad guys!".
I suppose one could characterize the chief attractive feature of what used to be Western is the utter failure of its rivals. Propaganda has limited means to overturn this verdict.
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 06:16:40 AMNot just Russia and China. And it's not all about the projection of American power.
It is a war of attrition. Russia is slowly demolishing Ukraine before our eyes. Ukraine does not have the option of mounting a large-scale invasion of Russia. Which country can last longer under these conditions? Ukraine can receive all manner of goodies from Uncle Sugar, but it cannot receive fresh new bodies to throw on the mountain of corpses.
For these reasons and others, I think a negotiated settlement is preferable. I do not know, but I suspect, various non-public discussions regarding potential settlements occur with some regularity. The US should start a vigorous public campaign to pursue a settlement.
The problem with a settlement is that it validates the use of brute force to seize whatever one wants, as long as one can fend off attempts to retrieve it.
Ukraine doesn't need to invade Russia; it merely needs to evict Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 09:25:32 AMThe problem with a settlement is that it validates the use of brute force to seize whatever one wants, as long as one can fend off attempts to retrieve it.
The use of brute force is common in international relations. Look at the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, or its ongoing occupation of part of Syria, to cite just two examples. The "argument" that a settlement would validate this, that, or the other thing is hollow. It is vapid idealism that leads to needless civilian death.
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 09:25:32 AMUkraine doesn't need to invade Russia; it merely needs to evict Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.
It is unclear if the latter can be achieved without the former.
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 09:25:32 AMThe problem with a settlement is that it validates the use of brute force to seize whatever one wants, as long as one can fend off attempts to retrieve it.
Ukraine doesn't need to invade Russia; it merely needs to evict Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.
There is no problem with reaching a settlement once Russia has a government that can settle.
There is a view that Putin can survive a settlement that formalizes his defeat. That would be because rivals don't want to take the blame for Russian collapse. Maybe they swoop in later to pick up valuable chunks, like in the '90s. But for now the wise choice might be to keep the Dead Man walking. He's a wonderful target for, oh, everyone? Putin can't return fire, having made it clear that he and he alone is the architect of this catastrophe. It's on him at his own insistence.
(https://images.wsj.net/im-494146?width=1280&size=1.33333333)
Get it? Got it.
An itty bitty invasion of Russia, a kind of proof of concepty thing, might help move along negotations. More likely IMO is an enhanced version of Belgorod go boom. Some of this will be accomplished by the Russians themselves. There will be many more Suspicious Fires all over the country as Russians continue to prove they are the most careless smokers on the planet.
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 04:59:45 AMThe fundamental problem with even this type of thinking is that it is inherently western, reliant on western concepts and ideals. It is literally impossible for many people in the west to understand this, as so many posts on this board illustrate.
Once again you're speaking only for the rulers. Everyone under them everywhere wants the same basic human rights and the same freedom from fear.
Quote from: SimonNZ on January 17, 2023, 12:51:28 PMOnce again you're speaking only for the rulers. Everyone under them everywhere wants the same basic human rights and the same freedom from fear.
I suppose this is my fault because this can get very abstract and confusing pretty quickly: I do not think the U.S. has ever really been about projecting power around the world to guarantee human rights or anything like that. Not at all. But that's neither or nor there. The question was why the U.S. should be supporting the Ukraine and places like Taiwan. My assumption that people seemed to disagree with was that resistance to Russia would be impossible without U.S. support and it's obvious Taiwan is gone tomorrow without the United States. Todd's arguments, I've been saying lately here, aren't trolling. Far from it. I'm not even sure why anyone would think that. Again, we can drop that maybe. I'm still very agnostic about Ukraine. It depends on 1. What is the cost in human life of this war? and 2. Can Russia be beaten? And 3. What kind of world is it with a beaten Russia? 4. What's the cost of a negotiated settlement at this point?
I wonder if people on this thread might formulate some good questions to help get their points of view across.
I still wouldn't push a button that eliminates American power from the world.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 01:25:52 PMI still wouldn't push a button that eliminates American an power from the world.
Eliminating American power from the world would be a terrible idea, particularly for America. I have never advocated that. I advocate America using its immense power in an interventionist manner only when its economic and strategic interests are at stake. They are not in Ukraine. The US can materially reduce its military and treaty commitments around the world and remain secure and maintain a robust economy that includes robust trade. There will always be wars here and there, and sometimes tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of non-Americans may die. That does not mean the US should intervene.
The post-war order is eroding, which is fine. These things happen. The US needs to navigate these changes in a manner that reduces American involvement in war and avoids war with a great power. Current US policy is increasing the risk of such a war. That is bad.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 01:25:52 PMI suppose this is my fault because this can get very abstract and confusing pretty quickly: I do not think the U.S. has ever really been about projecting power around the world to guarantee human rights or anything like that. Not at all. But that's neither or nor there. The question was why the U.S. should be supporting the Ukraine and places like Taiwan. My assumption that people seemed to disagree with was that resistance to Russia would be impossible without U.S. support and it's obvious Taiwan is gone tomorrow without the United States. Todd's arguments, I've been saying lately here, aren't trolling. Far from it. I'm not even sure why anyone would think that. Again, we can drop that maybe. I'm still very agnostic about Ukraine. It depends on 1. What is the cost in human life of this war? and 2. Can Russia be beaten? And 3. What kind of world is it with a beaten Russia? 4. What's the cost of a negotiated settlement at this point?
I wonder if people on this thread might formulate some good questions to help get their points of view across.
I still wouldn't push a button that eliminates American power from the world.
You support Todd and say he's not trolling. But you're prepared to say I'm dishonest.
It's one of the few thing you're prepared to say. Otherwise you tend to the "hey, I'm just asking questions" line which frankly doesn't advance the discussion.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 01:25:52 PMI suppose this is my fault because this can get very abstract and confusing pretty quickly: I do not think the U.S. has ever really been about projecting power around the world to guarantee human rights or anything like that.
My reply to Todd had nothing to do with the US. It was his notion that "non-western" countries have "chosen" oppressive regimes, when really its only the oppressors who "believe" in oppression.
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 01:38:11 PMEliminating American power from the world would be a terrible idea, particularly for America. I have never advocated that. I advocate America using its immense power in an interventionist manner only when its economic and strategic interests are at stake. They are not in Ukraine. The US can materially reduce its military and treaty commitments around the world and remain secure and maintain a robust economy that includes robust trade. There will always be wars here and there, and sometimes tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of non-Americans may die. That does not mean the US should intervene.
The post-war order is eroding, which is fine. These things happen. The US needs to navigate these changes in a manner that reduces American involvement in war and avoids war with a great power. Current US policy is increasing the risk of such a war. That is bad.
Right. But I'm guessing you'd shrink down these bases in Asia, so that the U.S. isn't such a presence? Or have I got that wrong?
It probably deserves another thread if people can take more politics on GMG (I don't know why people can't just ignore a thread if it bothers them so much), but the question with Taiwan is not going to be about money, it's going to be about U.S. lives. I'd like to see if people here come out roughly the same way. Do those that want to see the U.S. and Europe continue to support a war with Russia support the idea of the U.S. directly defending Taiwan? I find myself a bit unsure but nit on the side of wanting to change U.S.
policy just yet and maybe never. But I can be convinced. Your argument will be that the U.S. doesn't make the world safer by its dominance than a world where Russia and China prevail in the areas over which they seek to encroach.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 01:25:52 PMI suppose this is my fault because this can get very abstract and confusing pretty quickly: I do not think the U.S. has ever really been about projecting power around the world to guarantee human rights or anything like that. Not at all.
Protecting human rights is part of the deal, not the whole package. But even projecting power around the world isn't a goal in itself. It kind of fell into the US lap in 1945, as it was the strongest power and decided that rebuilding much of the world not only added to US wealth, but also gave us trading partners with a stake in the system. Anything the US can do to keep the membership sweet will be given favorable consideration.
I don't think anyone has tried this before. It couldn't have happened if the US hadn't produced half the world GDP after the war.
I wouldn't dismiss the place of human rights in the scheme. While various authoritarians around the world are totally on board with the self loathing of Western intellectuals who try to impose their (heh!) "preversion" of Western values, many people around the world think human rights are pretty OK. I don't think the notion of Western imposition carries much weight for most people. If you like an idea it's yours, right?
Quote from: Madiel on January 17, 2023, 02:22:20 PMYou support Todd and say he's not trolling. But you're prepared to say I'm dishonest.
It's one of the few thing you're prepared to say. Otherwise you tend to the "hey, I'm just asking questions" line which frankly doesn't advance the discussion.
I don't really want to get into it too much and you can have the last word after this on this particular bit of minutia. I'm not a complainer and it was probably my mistake to bring it up. You can do what you want. You're dishonest because you've stalked me across three threads including non-political ones to be a nudnik. I let it go at that point. I lost interest in the way you engage. I don't feel that way about others here and everyone is free to engage with whomever they want. It doesn't bother me though. You can keep kvetching about how you're characterized and about how you dislike the way people argue. I'm no longer a fan of banning anyone for anything unless there are threats. It's all just like bar-talk basically. But yeah, I know what you're up to. That's my opinion. You're not going to change my mind because I let it go for a pretty long while on GMG.
Quote from: SimonNZ on January 17, 2023, 02:32:56 PMMy reply to Todd had nothing to do with the US. It was his notion that "non-western" countries have "chosen" oppressive regimes, when really its only the oppressors who "believe" in oppression.
Is that really a fair representation of Todd's view? I'm not sure it is at all.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 02:45:25 PMRight. But I'm guessing you'd shrink down these bases in Asia, so that the U.S. isn't such a presence? Or have I got that wrong?
Eventually, yes. There is no reason that Asian countries cannot defend themselves from external threats over time - whether China or any other threat. More immediately, the highest visibility concern is Taiwan, though access to the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca is ultimately of at least equal significance. Partly because the US and the west more broadly succumbed to excessive globalization, Taiwan has outsize importance due to its manufacturing capacity, most pointedly in semiconductors. South Korea and the US cannot pick up the slack quickly enough in the event of a Chinese invasion, which itself assumes that China would shut down Taiwanese production or at least cut off the rest of the world. The US needs to refocus efforts to build up domestic capacity, which it is even though the policy is unabashedly mercantilist in nature, but that will take time. Strategic ambiguity was the best policy the US could come up with, and hopefully the next POTUS fully embraces it. In the meantime, the incredibly bellicose current POTUS has uttered publicly that the US would defend Taiwan, bypassing nearly half a century of policy. Yes, the State Department says that policy has not changed, but it is unlikely that everyone sees it that way.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 02:45:25 PMYour argument will be that the U.S. doesn't make the world safer by its dominance than a world where Russia and China prevail in the areas over which they seek to encroach.
It is not the responsibility of the US to make the world safer. It is the responsibility of the US to safeguard its citizens and its key economic and strategic interests. Sometimes those broad objectives overlap. Often they do not.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 02:57:49 PMIs that really a fair representation of Todd's view? I'm not sure it is at all.
Well, if Todd would reply - and without just the snark and sarcasm you refuse to see - he could clarify. But I've seen him say something like this a dozen times now, so its not just a one-off misreading.
Or did you mean that his provocative posts might not always be what he actually thinks? On that we may agree.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 02:57:49 PMI don't really want to get into it too much and you can have the last word after this on this particular bit of minutia. I'm not a complainer and it was probably my mistake to bring it up. You can do what you want. You're dishonest because you've stalked me across three threads including non-political ones to be a nudnik. I let it go at that point. I lost interest in the way you engage. I don't feel that way about others here and everyone is free to engage with whomever they want. It doesn't bother me though. You can keep kvetching about how you're characterized and about how you dislike the way people argue. I'm no longer a fan of banning anyone for anything unless there are threats. It's all just like bar-talk basically. But yeah, I know what you're up to. That's my opinion. You're not going to change my mind because I let it go for a pretty long while on GMG. Is that really a fair representation of Todd's view? I'm not sure it is at all.
I can assure you I don't go around on threads looking for where you've posted. I'm not stalking you. If I keep disagreeing with you it's just because you keep saying things I find ridiculous.
I mean, I don't even know what these other threads are. In the case of this thread, I'm pretty darn sure I was already here when you turned up, so that's a ridiculous definition of stalking right there.
I submit to you that your problem with me is not that I'm dishonest, but that I'm too honest and blunt for your liking.
Quote from: SimonNZ on January 17, 2023, 03:02:07 PMWell, if Todd would reply - and without just the snark and sarcasm you refuse to see - he could clarify. But I've seen him say something like this a dozen times now, so its not just a one-off misreading.
Or did you mean that his provocative posts might not always be what he actually thinks? On that we may agree.
I see the snark and sarcasm. I just vowed to be less emotional about these things. Just imagine everyone you're talking to is drunk.
Quote from: Madiel on January 17, 2023, 03:12:57 PMI can assure you I don't go around on threads looking for where you've posted. I'm not stalking you. If I keep disagreeing with you it's just because you keep saying things I find ridiculous.
I mean, I don't even know what these other threads are. In the case of this thread, I'm pretty darn sure I was already here when you turned up, so that's a ridiculous definition of stalking right there.
I submit to you that your problem with me is not that I'm dishonest, but that I'm too honest and blunt for your liking.
Ok man. You're too honest and blunt! You win. :)
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 03:00:02 PMEventually, yes. There is no reason that Asian countries cannot defend themselves from external threats over time - whether China or any other threat. More immediately, the highest visibility concern is Taiwan, though access to the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca is ultimately of at least equal significance. Partly because the US and the west more broadly succumbed to excessive globalization, Taiwan has outsize importance due to its manufacturing capacity, most pointedly in semiconductors. South Korea and the US cannot pick up the slack quickly enough in the event of a Chinese invasion, which itself assumes that China would shut down Taiwanese production or at least cut off the rest of the world. The US needs to refocus efforts to build up domestic capacity, which it is even though the policy is unabashedly mercantilist in nature, but that will take time. Strategic ambiguity was the best policy the US could come up with, and hopefully the next POTUS fully embraces it. In the meantime, the incredibly bellicose current POTUS has uttered publicly that the US would defend Taiwan, bypassing nearly half a century of policy. Yes, the State Department says that policy has not changed, but it is unlikely that everyone sees it that way.
It is not the responsibility of the US to make the world safer. It is the responsibility of the US to safeguard its citizens and its key economic and strategic interests. Sometimes those broad objectives overlap. Often they do not.
Making the world safer and limiting Russian and Chinese influence directly safeguards US citizens and key US interests.
As does not allowing a country to invade another and overtly claim territory for itself--which Russia has done in Ukraine and U.S. has not done in Syria, Iraq, or any other place since 1898.
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 04:23:05 PMMaking the world safer and limiting Russian and Chinese influence directly safeguards US citizens and key US interests.
As does not allowing a country to invade another and overtly claim territory for itself--which Russia has done in Ukraine and U.S. has not done in Syria, Iraq, or any other place since 1898.
I'm on this thread NOT out-and-out saying we shouldn't support the Ukrainians and the Taiwanese. Still, I have to blush a little at your comment. My opinion would be: it's complicated. It looks so much like the justifications for the horrible policies pursued by Johnson/Kissinger through GWB. But I'm not necessarily disagreeing that this is true in some limited way and cases. I incline towards keeping China off Taiwan but I can't hand-wave away the costs and the question of, "to what benefit?" What if it costs 5,000 American lives lost in a few days? How about 10,000? How about 20,000? And what will it do to the Japanese culture and economy to enter a real war with real loses as well? There is an argument these days that economic sanctions may be enough to cripple China because it's much more vulnerable than Russia, so there's that. Todd will say that there is no interest or little interest in going all in on defending Taiwan, especially if the production of vital technologies can be diversified to other places. And I'm someone who's heartbroken seeing HK students I know personally meet with the Chinese government's fate and I also know Taiwanese students.
If China is in a demographic death-spiral they'll either attack sooner than later or leave off dealing with it at all as their hands are full.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 04:44:45 PMI'm on this thread NOT out-and-out saying we shouldn't support the Ukrainians and the Taiwanese. Still, I have to blush a little at your comment. My opinion would be: it's complicated. It looks so much like the justifications for the horrible policies pursued by Johnson/Kissinger through GWB. But I'm not necessarily disagreeing that this is true in some limited way and cases. I incline towards keeping China off Taiwan but I can't hand-wave away the costs and the question of, "to what benefit?" What if it costs 5,000 American lives lost in a few days? How about 10,000? How about 20,000? And what will it do to the Japanese culture and economy to enter a real war with real loses as well? There is an argument these days that economic sanctions may be enough to cripple China because it's much more vulnerable than Russia, so there's that. Todd will say that there is no interest or little interest in going all in on defending Taiwan, especially if the production of vital technologies can be diversified to other places. And I'm someone who's heartbroken seeing HK students I know personally meet with the Chinese government's fate and I also know Taiwanese students.
If China is in a demographic death-spiral they'll either attack sooner than later or leave off dealing with it at all as their hands are full.
I was dealing with Todd's comment; no need to blush.
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 04:23:05 PMMaking the world safer and limiting Russian and Chinese influence directly safeguards US citizens and key US interests.
This is not true. First, US citizens are not at risk from Russia or China. Any claim that they are is preposterous. Second, key US interests are not currently at immediate risk from China. If China invades or blockades Taiwan, or stops traffic in the critical waterways around China, then China can be said to be putting key US interests at risk. Third, Russia has a limited impact on US interests. Ukraine is irrelevant to the US in terms of strategic or economic interests. If Russia conquers Ukraine, the US will not be less safe, nor will its economy be at risk. Russian actions pertaining to other Eastern European states do not currently threaten any key US interests, except to the extent that the expansionist, imperialist obligations accompanying NATO membership are counted. (This is one of the primary reasons NATO is very bad and should be reduced in size or eliminated.) Russia is not a major supplier of critical economic inputs to the US (eg, oil, gas), though they are a competitor in these areas. This fact plays a role in the current war. Even if, by some unforeseen series of events, Russia somehow conquered all of the countries in the Soviet sphere of influence, the US would not be less secure than it is now. (Remember, right now the US is in a proxy war with Russia.) US territorial integrity would not be threatened. The damage from reduced trade would be small, even if a new, nearly omnipotent Russia cut off all foreign trade. (Since the idea of Russia conquering all of Eastern Europe is silly, one can go with a silly idea of Russia cutting off all trade in such circumstances.) The US Navy would still maintain control of the oceans. The US Air Force would maintain air superiority. Space Force would maintain a major lead in space. And so forth.
The mindset that it is in any way the responsibility of the US to make the world safer is an especially pernicious contemporary manifestation of the reckless and foolish messianic foreign policy that began during the Progressive Era. It is a fool's errand and a ridiculously expensive one, at that. It also leads to war.
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 04:23:05 PMAs does not allowing a country to invade another and overtly claim territory for itself--which Russia has done in Ukraine and U.S. has not done in Syria, Iraq, or any other place since 1898.
The US does not claim territory to rule in a colonial manner, that is true. Instead, it destroys governments and engages in regime change, the latter to explicitly install governments that pursue policies directed by the US. That is imperialism. That is an exact equivalent of Russian imperialism. In addition, the US is directly responsible for the deaths of more foreigners than Russia this century, and far, far more in the post-war era. Tools of US imperialism center around US directed and controlled military alliances (eg, NATO), extensive use of extraterritorial jurisdiction, and control of the most critical elements of international finance, along with dollar dominance. The US runs a more sophisticated empire than the crude colonial ones that Europeans could manage. Colonialism is only one form of imperialism.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 04:44:45 PMWhat if it costs 5,000 American lives lost in a few days? How about 10,000? How about 20,000?
Dead American servicemembers are politically unpopular.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 04:44:45 PMThere is an argument these days that economic sanctions may be enough to cripple China because it's much more vulnerable than Russia, so there's that.
There is not a strong argument. The Chinese government wisely incorporated their economy more fully into the international system than Russia, and they act as a major exporter to the entire world. Sanctions would boomerang.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 04:44:45 PMTodd will say that there is no interest or little interest in going all in on defending Taiwan, especially if the production of vital technologies can be diversified to other places.
We are 5-10 years out from adequately diversifying production of critical technologies currently centered on Taiwan. Chinese leaders know this. If we can diversify before an invasion, then Taiwan should be cut loose.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 04:44:45 PMIf China is in a demographic death-spiral they'll either attack sooner than later or leave off dealing with it at all as their hands are full.
Predictions of China's imminent demise are premature.
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 05:06:24 PMThis is not true. First, US citizens are not at risk from Russia or China. Any claim that they are is preposterous. Second, key US interests are not currently at immediate risk from China. If China invades or blockades Taiwan, or stops traffic in the critical waterways around China, then China can be said to be putting key US interests at risk. Third, Russia has a limited impact on US interests. Ukraine is irrelevant to the US in terms of strategic or economic interests. If Russia conquers Ukraine, the US will not be less safe, nor will its economy be at risk. Russian actions pertaining to other Eastern European states do not currently threaten any key US interests, except to the extent that the expansionist, imperialist obligations accompanying NATO membership are counted. (This is one of the primary reasons NATO is very bad and should be reduced in size or eliminated.) Russia is not a major supplier of critical economic inputs to the US (eg, oil, gas), though they are a competitor in these areas. This fact plays a role in the current war. Even if, by some unforeseen series of events, Russia somehow conquered all of the countries in the Soviet sphere of influence, the US would not be less secure than it is now. (Remember, right now the US is in a proxy war with Russia.) US territorial integrity would not be threatened. The damage from reduced trade would be small, even if a new, nearly omnipotent Russia cut off all foreign trade. (Since the idea of Russia conquering all of Eastern Europe is silly, one can go with a silly idea of Russia cutting off all trade in such circumstances.) The US Navy would still maintain control of the oceans. The US Air Force would maintain air superiority. Space Force would maintain a major lead in space. And so forth.
The mindset that it is in any way the responsibility of the US to make the world safer is an especially pernicious contemporary manifestation of the reckless and foolish messianic foreign policy that began during the Progressive Era. It is a fool's errand and a ridiculously expensive one, at that. It also leads to war.
The US does not claim territory to rule in a colonial manner, that is true. Instead, it destroys governments and engages in regime change, the latter to explicitly install governments that pursue policies directed by the US. That is imperialism. That is an exact equivalent of Russian imperialism. In addition, the US is directly responsible for the deaths of more foreigners than Russia this century, and far, far more in the post-war era. Tools of US imperialism center around US directed and controlled military alliances (eg, NATO), extensive use of extraterritorial jurisdiction, and control of the most critical elements of international finance, along with dollar dominance. The US runs a more sophisticated empire than the crude colonial ones that Europeans could manage. Colonialism is only one form of imperialism.
Dead American servicemembers are politically unpopular.
There is not a strong argument. The Chinese government wisely incorporated their economy more fully into the international system than Russia, and they act as a major exporter to the entire world. Sanctions would boomerang.
We are 5-10 years out from adequately diversifying production of critical technologies currently centered on Taiwan. Chinese leaders know this. If we can diversify before an invasion, then Taiwan should be cut loose.
Predictions of China's imminent demise are premature.
You have a foolishly limited, self blinding, view of what US interests are. It doesn't help that you use the same canting anti NATO jargon that was already stale flat and unprofitable back in the '70s.
@milk mentioned the prospect of Taiwanese students meeting the fate of Hong Kong students. Keeping that from happening is in the interest of the US. In fact it's in the interest of almost everybody who isn't part of the CCP or the PLA.
But I don't want to be totally antagonistic. You are quite correct about China not being near anything that could qualify as demising.
Ukraine asked for help. It did not ask anyone to send troops. A discussion about an operation costing American lives is not wholly irrelevant but it is also theoretical in the current context. US soldiers are not on the front lines.
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 05:18:06 PMYou have a foolishly limited, self blinding, view of what US interests are. It doesn't help that you use the same canting anti NATO jargon that was already stale flat and unprofitable back in the '70s.
Incorrect, as usual. First, NATO was still necessary and appropriate in the 70s since the USSR still existed. NATO became obsolete only in 1991. I have been clear about that before. It's OK that you did not read those posts.
Second, I have a clear understanding of US interests. What you and all other pro-war posters offer is a rehashing of neocon dogma whereby the US somehow benefits from democracy around the world, and so forth. That would only be true if the benefits outweigh the costs, monetary and otherwise. The costs outweight the benefits.
Todd's Law, as usual. But admittedly with some extra filling.
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 05:47:20 PMIncorrect, as usual. First, NATO was still necessary and appropriate in the 70s since the USSR still existed. NATO became obsolete only in 1991. I have been clear about that before. It's OK that you did not read those posts.
Second, I have a clear understanding of US interests. What you and all other pro-war posters offer is a rehashing of neocon dogma whereby the US somehow benefits from democracy around the world, and so forth. That would only be true if the benefits outweigh the costs, monetary and otherwise. The costs outweight the benefits.
NATO is not obsolete. If it were, would countries be looking to join it?
The idea that one country should not forcibly seize all or part of another country is quite beneficial to the U.S. Strange you can't understand that
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 06:38:58 PMNATO is not obsolete. If it were, would countries be looking to join it?
The idea that one country should not forcibly seize all or part of another country is quite beneficial to the U.S. Strange you can't understand that
Well... the US has historically benefited from doing some forcible seizure. *cough* Hawaii *cough*. But we're past all that now.
Quote from: Madiel on January 17, 2023, 06:42:19 PMWell... the US has historically benefited from doing some forcible seizure. *cough* Hawaii *cough*. But we're past all that now.
Hawaii is small potatoes compared to the Treaty of Guadalupe Hildago
QuoteWith its army's defeat and its capital's fall in September 1847, Mexico entered into negotiations with the U.S. peace envoy, Nicholas Trist, to end the war. On the Mexican side, some factions did not concede defeat or seek to engage in negotiations. The treaty called for the United States to pay US$15 million to Mexico and to pay off the claims of American citizens against Mexico up to US$5 million. It gave the United States the Rio Grande as a boundary for Texas and gave the U.S. ownership of California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, as well as an area comprising most of New Mexico, and approximately two-thirds of Arizona. Mexicans in those annexed areas could relocate within Mexico's new boundaries or receive American citizenship with full civil rights.
[Wikipedia]
Now see, if I'd ever been to Texas or Mexico I might be more aware of that.
As it stands, I've visited Iolani Palace...
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 05:18:06 PMYou have a foolishly limited, self blinding, view of what US interests are. It doesn't help that you use the same canting anti NATO jargon that was already stale flat and unprofitable back in the '70s.
@milk mentioned the prospect of Taiwanese students meeting the fate of Hong Kong students. Keeping that from happening is in the interest of the US. In fact it's in the interest of almost everybody who isn't part of the CCP or the PLA.
But I don't want to be totally antagonistic. You are quite correct about China not being near anything that could qualify as demising.
They aren't all-powerful either. Manufacturing will decline there - it looks like. Yes, they've built a big military but they've also built a big propaganda machine that has been in overdrive, especially online, over-selling. I'm not saying the prospect of a conflict over Taiwan is not a worry, it is a huge worry and a hot war should be avoided. But China does a lot of things poorly and the government is basically disliked around Asia. It's almost comical the way Vietnamese people reacted when they were told they were on line for a Chinese Vaccine instead of an American one, just anecdotally. But China is badmouthed not least by countries that make deals with them. Their soft power isn't good will, but maybe they don't need it since they fund a lot of things around the world and have some important allies. But I don't think they can make up for their demographics the way Japan half-way has. Again, my idea of things could be totally wrong. I'm aware I know very little about this topic. I'm open to being converted. But I remember the 80s when Japanese were full of themselves and people thought they had the secrets to economic success. Is China just the same or worse or much worse?
Quote from: Todd on January 17, 2023, 05:47:20 PMIncorrect, as usual. ...
@Todd's definition of "incorrect" is he doesn't agree.
So to condense what he deems "correct" a bit:
- The USA is grasping, controlling, militaristic, imperialist power. NATO is best understood as one instrument of America's desire for world domination;
- Russia is benign nation & culture seeking an alternative to a US dominated world; and its "military operation" in Ukraine is merely a defensive response to the USA and its NATO surrogate.
I rest my case. Todd doubtless will
correct whatever nuance of the above he doesn't agree with.
Todd, we must acknowledge, will cherry-pick all the world's media with huge confirmation bias to support his case. Doesn't matter though, because it remains delusional and "incorrect".
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 06:38:58 PMNATO is not obsolete. If it were, would countries be looking to join it?
It is obsolete for the US. It does not enhance US security and it depletes the US Treasury. I fully understand why small, weak countries want to rely on the US for security. It is rational for small, weak countries to want to join NATO. It is irrational for the US to want to remain.
Quote from: JBS on January 17, 2023, 06:38:58 PMThe idea that one country should not forcibly seize all or part of another country is quite beneficial to the U.S.
You need to explain how it benefits the US with concrete examples. Include economic benefits that the US receives and how US security is enhanced. If you offer profits earned by defense contractors as one of the benefits, perhaps you could explain how that benefits Americans in terms of governance and income equality.
Quote from: milk on January 17, 2023, 08:37:59 PMBut I remember the 80s when Japanese were full of themselves and people thought they had the secrets to economic success. Is China just the same or worse or much worse?
China is not all-powerful and manufacturing started to leave China in some industries years ago. Lower wage countries like Cambodia or Vietnam became destinations for lower value-added companies, as have some South American and African countries. It is worth noting, though, that in some cases it is the Chinese themselves who are offshoring. Made in Mozambique may very well mean Made in China. China has also seen substantial increases in relative wages for some higher value-added industries. For the US, for some industries, it may be cheaper to shift manufacturing to Mexico now. With mercantalism on the rise around the world*, pressure is building to near-shore or "friend-shore", and when combined with the tired realties of the economics of location, you can expect to see more production shift to geographically proximate countries. During the original debates about NAFTA, one of the more fashionable group of arguments used to center around the concept of the growing power of trade blocs and an accompanying shift of focus on not only trade relations, but also security matters. The basic framework was it would be NAFTA, the EU, and an Asian bloc combining Japan and ASEAN, and that these blocs would control trade and establish the basis for new security relationships. Obviously, today terminology and analysis has shifted, and the Indo-Pacific, a very buzzy phrase, may see the rise of multiple blocs. Hopeful types may still preach the possibilities of Mercosur and AfCFTA, and both have potential.
China faces unique challenges, and in addition to the demographic "crisis" as premature triumphalists will call it, there is also the real estate bubble, some signs of bubbles in certain sectors of the financial markets, and of course Chinese GDP growth has slowed. It would nice to think that maybe China will enter an extended period of stagnation like Japan, neutralizing the country. I have doubts. Economic slowdown is most directly attributable to the pandemic, and financial bubbles may not represent the same threat to China that they present to countries with free capital flows and a central government less prone to dictatorial solutions. You will also likely read or hear how China will fall into the middle income trap, but from a geopolitical standpoint, with a country the size of China (or India or Brazil or Nigeria or Indonesia) the middle income trap is not necessarily a impediment to growing in power. China still has a lot of room to grow, and most of their growth can and will come from shifting from export led growth to domestic consumption led growth. Not only do Chinese leaders know this, they started making adjustments in the 2010s. In short, maybe China enters a death spiral now; I would not bet on it.
* One of the better quips I heard recently was that the Biden Administration took the Trump Administration tariff policy and just ran it through a grammar checker. Mercantalism is the thing now.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 18, 2023, 04:44:01 AM@Todd's definition of "incorrect" is he doesn't agree.
So to condense what he deems "correct" a bit:
- The USA is grasping, controlling, militaristic, imperialist power. NATO is best understood as one instrument of America's desire for world domination;
- Russia is benign nation & culture seeking an alternative to a US dominated world; and its "military operation" in Ukraine is merely a defensive response to the USA and its NATO surrogate.
I rest my case. Todd doubtless will correct whatever nuance of the above he doesn't agree with.
The first point is clumsily worded, but correct in spirit. The second point is incorrect. You are applying your preferred, simplistic, moralistic assessment. The US and Russia, and China, and soon India, are great powers that engage in predictable forms of (immoral) behavior.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 18, 2023, 04:44:01 AMTodd, we must acknowledge, will cherry-pick all the world's media with huge confirmation bias to support his case. Doesn't matter though, because it remains delusional and "incorrect".
GMG is rotten with confirmation bias. It is also largely factless.
You have no case to rest.
Quote from: Todd on January 18, 2023, 04:53:00 AMIt is obsolete for the US. It does not enhance US security and it depletes the US Treasury. I fully understand why small, weak countries want to rely on the US for security. It is rational for small, weak countries to want to join NATO. It is irrational for the US to want to remain.
You need to explain how it benefits the US with concrete examples. Include economic benefits that the US receives and how US security is enhanced. If you offer profits earned by defense contractors as one of the benefits, perhaps you could explain how that benefits Americans in terms of governance and income equality.
China is not all-powerful and manufacturing started to leave China in some industries years ago. Lower wage countries like Cambodia or Vietnam became destinations for lower value-added companies, as have some South American and African countries. It is worth noting, though, that in some cases it is the Chinese themselves who are offshoring. Made in Mozambique may very well mean Made in China. China has also seen substantial increases in relative wages for some higher value-added industries. For the US, for some industries, it may be cheaper to shift manufacturing to Mexico now. With mercantalism on the rise around the world*, pressure is building to near-shore or "friend-shore", and when combined with the tired realties of the economics of location, you can expect to see more production shift to geographically proximate countries. During the original debates about NAFTA, one of the more fashionable group of arguments used to center around the concept of the growing power of trade blocs and an accompanying shift of focus on not only trade relations, but also security matters. The basic framework was it would be NAFTA, the EU, and an Asian bloc combining Japan and ASEAN, and that these blocs would control trade and establish the basis for new security relationships. Obviously, today terminology and analysis has shifted, and the Indo-Pacific, a very buzzy phrase, may see the rise of multiple blocs. Hopeful types may still preach the possibilities of Mercosur and AfCFTA, and both have potential.
China faces unique challenges, and while in addition to the demographic "crisis" as premature triumphalists will call it, there is also the real estate bubble, some signs of bubbles in certain sectors of the financial markets, and of course Chinese GDP growth has slowed. It would nice to think that maybe China will enter an extended period of stagnation like Japan, neutralizing the country. I have doubts. Economic slowdown is most directly attributable to the pandemic, and financial bubbles may not represent the same threat to China that they present to countries with free capital flows and a central government less prone to dictatorial solutions. You will also likely read or hear how China will fall into the middle income trap, but from a geopolitical standpoint, with a country the size of China (or India or Brazil or Nigeria or Indonesia) the middle income trap is not necessarily a impediment to growing in power. China still has a lot of room to grow, and most of their growth can and will come from shifting from export led growth to domestic consumption led growth. Not only do Chinese leaders know this, they started making adjustments in the 2010s. In short, maybe China enters a death spiral now; I would not bet on it.
* One of the better quips I heard recently was that the Biden Administration took the Trump Administration tariff policy and just ran it through a grammar checker. Mercantalism is the thing now.
Yes, I've been hearing that quip too.
Here's a pundit show I watch sometimes that I was surprise to find basically repeating much of Todd's perspective on Ukraine, based on Wikileaks cables between the U.S. and Russia. I think I've got that right but it's been a long day:
Quote from: milk on January 18, 2023, 05:17:05 AMYes, I've been hearing that quip too.
Here's a pundit show I watch sometimes that I was surprise to find basically repeating much of Todd's perspective on Ukraine, based on Wikileaks cables between the U.S. and Russia. I think I've got that right but it's been a long day:
One can go back and read Kennan's warnings from the 90s about NATO expansion more broadly, Robert Gates' response to Bush's invitation of Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO, Mearsheimer's analysis, the Carnegie Endowment piece I linked previously, and so forth. The risks of NATO expansion are well known and have been known for a long time. But people who want war want war. People who believe pro-war propaganda believe pro-war propaganda.
Quote from: Madiel on January 17, 2023, 08:03:31 PMNow see, if I'd ever been to Texas or Mexico I might be more aware of that.
As it stands, I've visited Iolani Palace...
Nearer home, for but one thing.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 18, 2023, 06:11:03 AMNearer home, for but one thing.
Indeed. I actually went to Hawaii on the way back. After California, Illinois, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York, DC, Washington State and Oregon... and parts Canadian.
Quote from: Madiel on January 18, 2023, 11:06:11 AMIndeed. I actually went to Hawaii on the way back. After California, Illinois, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York, DC, Washington State and Oregon... and parts Canadian.
That sounds a very nice trip!
@Todd If it's okay for Putin to send in an army to grab Ukrainian territory, it's also okay for anyone to walk into your house, grab whatever they want, and keep it for themselves.
The same principle is involved.
Not all costs and benefits can be reduced to amounts transcribable on a financial ledger.
Quote from: JBS on January 18, 2023, 11:22:03 AM@ToddThe same principle is involved.
Incorrect.
Quote from: JBS on January 18, 2023, 11:22:03 AMNot all costs and benefits can be reduced to amounts transcribable on a financial ledger.
The important ones can.
I guess ampersands are in this week.
From AP: NATO warns of Russia's long war in Ukraine, vows to be ready (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-politics-mircea-geoana-e178af41a4f93ead9a427484ea06dbaf)
A long Russo-Ukrainian War is the narrative now. Sucks to live in Ukraine.
On an entirely unrelated note, I called up Lockheed Martin's investor relations line to inquire about prospective dividend increases, and the hold music was:
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 18, 2023, 11:09:31 AMThat sounds a very nice trip!
One of the most fun parts was explaining to Americans how I could get 3 months off work full pay, or 6 months half pay which was the option I took.
I've accumulated that again, actually...
Note that Todd did not dispute we could walk into his house and take stuff.
I have of course already offered his actual house for sale. I'm thinking I ought to advertise more widely. It'll cost a bit but I'm sure I can recoup my costs from the sale. Heck, I can probably even put some aside to get Todd a caravan to live in. It'll be fine.
Quote from: Todd on January 18, 2023, 04:57:14 AMTThe US and Russia, and China, and soon India, are great powers that engage in predictable forms of (immoral) behavior.
Predictable how? Are you using historical analogies?
I think it would be refreshing to see the words of senior leaders regarding this war. It could offer a refreshing perspective on the non-bellicose nature of Western leadership.
Quote from: Lindsey GrahamAs long as we help Ukraine with the weapons they need and economic support, they will fight to the last person.
This is from last August and is available on C-SPAN. It is noteworthy that so many pro-war posters on this board are in bed ideologically with Lindsey Graham.
Quote from: Sanna MarinI think the only message that we need to send is that we will support Ukraine as long as needed. One year, two years, five years, 10 years, 15 years
Ms Marin's bold statement, delivered just yesterday at Davos, provides proof positive about just how different women are as leaders. They are more peaceful and just. Also, it is worth pointing out that not just the continuity of policy but the escalation is a thing of beauty. Sticktoitiveness is especially attractive when civilians die by the thousands.
We have always been at war in West Eurasia.
When your country is attacked there may be little Tucker Carlson can say to dissuade you from defending it. There are more immediate motives to action.
Putin has made it clear that he wants to de-exist Ukraine. Ukes are either dead Russians or ( best case) live ones.
I note that Ukraine has developed a strong national identity fairly recently. A few years ago, around 2007, Michael Palin took a trip through Ukraine and talked to someone who explained how things had changed since the last time they had talked about 14 years earlier. When the Soviet Russian empire fell Ukraine was discovering its identity. It was no longer Russian but didn't have a clear view of what it meant to be Ukrainian from a geopolitical perspective. By 2007 that had changed. Ukraine had a national identity and a European one.
That's what Russia is trying to destroy, and I judge they have damn good reasons for doing it, as good as the Ukrainian determination to prevent their national destruction. The stakes are high in both countries. It isn't easy for Russia to accept its reduced status in the world. Nukes can't help them.
For Palinists I refer to the Ukraine segments of Pole to Pole (Russian Steps) and New Europe (Danube to Dneiper).
Quote from: Todd on January 18, 2023, 12:06:31 PMThe important ]costs and benefits] can be [reduced to amounts transcribable on a financial ledgerones can.]
For those unburdened by imagination and who perennially struggle with abstract thought, I'm sure this seems true.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 20, 2023, 03:36:37 AMFor those unburdened by imagination and who perennially struggle with abstract thought, I'm sure this seems true.
It is true that imagination allows some people to focus on fantastical notions, such as the morality of their support for this war.
From WaPo: CIA director holds secret meeting with Zelensky on Russia's next steps (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/19/cia-william-burns-zelensky-ukraine-russia/)
Quote from: John HudsonBurns emphasized the urgency of the moment on the battlefield and acknowledged that at some point assistance would be harder to come by, the people said.
Ruh-roh.
Hey, kudos to Bezos' rag, it managed to include the tidbit that Burns warned about Ukraine, and that it's not all about Putin, which confuses some people online.
We have always been at war in West Eurasia.
If you buy Todd's house from me I'm willing to negotiate with you as to whether the Beethoven collection is included in the purchase.
If a country is at war with your country you are at war, notwithstanding how peacemongerly you once were.
Western imperialism breeds anti-Western imperialists like rats. The funny thing is how they are not anti-imperialist in the more general sense of the term. Russian and Chinese imperialism vanishes from whatever passes for analysis. Since wars require only the side that starts them, a patch is needed. Trust me, it will never come.
I start here. You are at war when you are attacked. The "you" is on any level from the personal to the imperial. You are free to make moral judgments on cases. If you try to make cases based on a strong a priori about evil levels, you deserve the scorn you get.
Quote from: Madiel on January 20, 2023, 06:38:11 AMIf you buy Todd's house from me I'm willing to negotiate with you as to whether the Beethoven collection is included in the purchase.
Does Todd own a van? If so, is it named
Ludwig?
Quote from: 71 dB on January 20, 2023, 09:51:44 AMDoes Todd own a van? If so, is it named Ludwig?
The important thing is that, whatever Todd thinks he owns, we can make a deal about who gets it.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 20, 2023, 09:51:44 AMDoes Todd own a van? If so, is it named Ludwig?
You know "van" is pronounced "fan".
Dutch
Quote from: premont on January 20, 2023, 12:56:09 PMDutch
Well, according to my Dutch lady teacher of Dutch, Van is pronounced approximately as the English Vaughn, which is quite far from fan.
Quote from: Florestan on January 20, 2023, 01:03:35 PMWell, according to my Dutch lady teacher of Dutch, Van is pronounced approximately as the English Vaughn, which is quite far from fan.
Correct. 8)
Quote from: Florestan on January 20, 2023, 01:03:35 PMWell, according to my Dutch lady teacher of Dutch, Van is pronounced approximately as the English Vaug⁶, hn, which is quite far from fan.
To the best of my knowledge, the Van în van Beethoven is pronounced în English as fun.
Quote from: Florestan on January 20, 2023, 01:36:02 PMTo the best of my knowledge, the Van în van Beethoven is pronounced în English as fun.
Which apparently is what some people are having.
Quote from: Madiel on January 20, 2023, 01:37:07 PMWhich apparently is what some people are having.
Hah!
Quote from: premont on January 20, 2023, 12:44:13 PMYou know "van" is pronounced "fan".
Back in the day long before Google translate when online translators really sucked, we had fun translating text from English to Finnish. One of those texts included Ludwig van Beethoven and it was "translated" into Ludwig asuntovaunu Beethoven. Yes, "asuntovaunu" is a van (caravan) in Finnish.
So, I was remembering this rather than thinking how this works only for a Finnish mind. I accidentally turned this thread into a linguistic war. My bad.
Now I'm puzzling over the fact that we normally just call him Beethoven. Because for most Dutch and Flemish names I can think of we wouldn't do that. The painter isn't called Gogh. The footballer isn't called Nistelrooy. The martial arts guy with questionable acting abilities isn't called Damme.
So how did Beethoven lose his van? Do we blame the Germans?
Quote from: Madiel on January 20, 2023, 03:05:29 PMNow I'm puzzling over the fact that we normally just call him Beethoven. Because for most Dutch and Flemish names I can think of we wouldn't do that. The painter isn't called Gogh. The footballer isn't called Nistelrooy. The martial arts guy with questionable acting abilities isn't called Damme.
So how did Beethoven lose his van? Do we blame the Germans?
My guess is not the Germans but Anglophones who tend to drop the von out of German surnames, and extended this to LvB because they didn't account for the Netherlands origin.
How common is it for German language texts to drop (or contrawise, keep) the von in German names?
Relatedly, isn't von in German usage an indicator of noble or knightly status, but van in Dutch/Flemish usage is not?
Yes, the German speakers wrongly believed that v. Beethoven was noble because of what von connotes in German. It affected his custody battle over his nephew when they discovered he wasn't noble after all.
Quote from: Madiel on January 20, 2023, 03:05:29 PMhow did Beethoven lose his van?
The Russians ran out of transporters and took it from him. ;D
...and the circle is complete.
The whole German "tank saga" is turning more embarrassing by the day... ::)
With social democratic chancellor Scholz changing the narrative continuously. Meanwhile being in a coalition with parties that are in favour of sending, or at least allowing other countries to send Leopard 2 tanks.
Is Scholz prepared to have Germany's position in Europe and vis à vis the US diminished, the future relationship with neighbour Poland and the Baltics damaged, and possibly a domestic political crisis?
Germany signals it hasn't ruled out sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine (https://www.npr.org/2023/01/20/1149736650/germany-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine-military-aid)
Why were these tanks built anyway, if not to defend Europe?
After western tanks, fighter jets will be on the agenda:
The Netherlands Will Consider the Possibility of Transferring F-16 Jets to Ukraine: Why This is a Very Realistic Scenario (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/the_netherlands_will_consider_the_possibility_of_transferring_f_16s_jets_to_ukraine_why_this_is_a_very_realistic_scenario-5494.html)
Quote from: Florestan on January 20, 2023, 01:03:35 PMWell, according to my Dutch lady teacher of Dutch, Van is pronounced approximately as the English Vaughn, which is quite far from fan.
My main point was, that the "v" is pronounced "f" , but maybe the German pronunciation of "van" is closer to "fan".
This is not a linguistic war, only some peaceful negotiation.
Quote from: premont on January 21, 2023, 01:25:40 AMMy main point was, that the "v" is pronounced "f" , but maybe the German pronunciation of "van" is closer to "fan".
This is not a linguistic war, only some peaceful negotiation.
German V is often pronounced like English F. Including in both "von" and, based on this article, in names of Dutch origin.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pronunciation_of_v_in_German
Quote from: premont on January 21, 2023, 01:25:40 AMMy main point was, that the "v" is pronounced "f"
In German. In Dutch it's not so clear cut. I've heard Dutch people (including my teacher of Dutch) pronouncing it "v".
QuoteThis is not a linguistic war, only some peaceful negotiation.
Quite so.
Quote from: Florestan on January 21, 2023, 02:46:32 AMIn Dutch it's not so clear cut.
Maybe it's not pronounced "f" as a general rule, but never-the-less very commonly.
Quote from: premont on January 21, 2023, 02:57:06 AMMaybe it's not pronounced "f" as a general rule, but never-the-less very commonly.
In my experience, having lived in The Netherlands for a year and having taken courses in Dutch and having watched Dutch TV, the pronunciation of "v" as "f" is indeed common but then again so is its pronunciation as "v", and I'd say that on TV it's more common as "v". For instance,
vanavond means
tonight and on TV they always pronounced it
vonavond, with v and the first a turned into o.
@Que, please, help us settle the matter! :)
Quote from: Que on January 21, 2023, 12:30:16 AMThe whole German "tank saga" is turning more embarrassing by the day... ::)
Germans are showing restraint and are considering their interests. This is a very positive development.
Quote from: Que on January 21, 2023, 01:09:47 AMAfter western tanks, fighter jets will be on the agenda:
The Netherlands Will Consider the Possibility of Transferring F-16 Jets to Ukraine: Why This is a Very Realistic Scenario (https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/the_netherlands_will_consider_the_possibility_of_transferring_f_16s_jets_to_ukraine_why_this_is_a_very_realistic_scenario-5494.html)
Unfettered escalation is a negative development.
Quote from: Florestan on January 21, 2023, 03:44:35 AMIn my experience, having lived in The Netherlands for a year and having taken courses in Dutch and having watched Dutch TV, the pronunciation of "v" as "f" is indeed common but then again so is its pronunciation as "v", and I'd say that on TV it's more common as "v". For instance, vanavond means tonight and on TV they always pronounced it vonavond, with v and the first a turned into o.
@Que, please, help us settle the matter! :)
This is interesting. But shouldn't we make this a new post?
I'm a Belgian and there several Dutch GMG'rs that could explain more....
Quote from: pjme on January 21, 2023, 05:19:23 AMThis is interesting. But shouldn't we make this a new post?
I'm a Belgian and there several Dutch GMG'rs that could explain more....
Maybe
@Que could cut the relevant posts on the matter from this thread and past them in a new topic, say, "Dutch Pronunciation of V" .
Quote from: Florestan on January 21, 2023, 05:44:35 AMMaybe @Que could cut the relevant posts on the matter from this thread and past them in a new topic, say, "Dutch Pronunciation of V" .
Or better: Dutch and German versus English pronounciation of "v", which actually was my starting point.
Quote from: premont on January 21, 2023, 09:07:13 AMOr better: Dutch and German versus English pronounciation of "v", which actually was my starting point.
Even better.
Or maybe we could accept that this was a far more enjoyable derailment of the thread than the ones the troll gives us, but move on.
Still negotiating the sale of his house.
Quote from: Florestan on January 21, 2023, 09:08:34 AMEven better.
Ok - I'm of to bed now. let's talk again tomorrow
Quote from: Florestan on January 21, 2023, 05:44:35 AMMaybe @Que could cut the relevant posts on the matter from this thread and past them in a new topic, say, "Dutch Pronunciation of V" .
Naahh, way too entertaining! ;D
Quote from: Que on January 21, 2023, 02:43:28 PMNaahh, way too entertaining! ;D
Surely you meant, " Naahh, vay too entertaining! "
Right? ;)
Quote from: Que on January 21, 2023, 02:43:28 PMNaahh, way too entertaining! ;D
Quote from: LKB on January 21, 2023, 04:44:06 PMSurely you meant, " Naahh, vay too entertaining! "
Right? ;)
No way! :P
More on the debate in Germany from Deutsche Welle:
https://www.dw.com/en/german-politicians-criticize-stalling-on-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64474921
It seems like Scholz' mindset has some serious issues with adjusting to reality.... When Russia invaded and Bulgaria was secretly sending massive amounts of ammunition... Germany sent helmets...
Months later German support has increased to substantial levels but Scholz doesn't seem to understand that Russian troops cannot be pushed back without proper tanks. But it's OK if they are old Russian made models?
If he is purposely aiming for a military stalemate, he'd better say so. But he doesn't... A stalemate would be in Russia's favour in the long run since it has unlimited amount of cannon fodder and it will lead to prolongued slaughter and loss of human lives.
Scholz has now ordered his new defense minister to do a "tank inventory".. You can't make this shit up... ::)
As predicted, the Polish and Baltic governments have protested and have appealed to Germany to at least cooperate with the delivery by other countries. How is Scholz going to come back from this? Apparently, war times are times in which some politicians are digging deep holes for themselves.
We could have faced a similar political farce over fighter jets, but luckily those are US made and transfer by other countries to Ukraine does not require German consent.
This whole episode - and I am referring to the conduct of Germany during to entire war AND Germany's Russia policy leading up to the war - will have serious impact on the future balance of power in Europe. Initially everyone in Europe was counting on German leadership, but no more. The influence of Poland has significantly increased, which will continue to increase once the expected political shift to a pro-EU course will take place at the next elections. A Poland with a more progressive, pro-EU leadership will find likely allies in the Baltic and Nordic states. Add to that the Czechs and Slovaks. A future accession of Ukraine, with its eternal alliance with Poland forged by this war, to the EU will seal this eastward shift of polical power in the EU.
Quote from: Que on January 22, 2023, 12:32:32 AMThis whole episode - and I am referring to the conduct of Germany during to entire war AND Germany's Russia policy leading up to the war - will have serious impact on the future balance of power in Europe. Initially everyone in Europe was counting on German leadership, but no more. The influence of Poland has significantly increased, which will continue to increase once the expected political shift to a pro-EU course will take place at the next elections. A Poland with a more progressive, pro-EU leadership will find likely allies in the Baltic and Nordic states. Add to that the Czechs and Slovaks. A future accession of Ukraine, with its eternal alliance with Poland forged by this war, to the EU will seal this eastward shift of polical power in the EU.
Yes, I do rather wonder what this situation is doing to Germany's leadership.
I also wonder how France is going. Apparently France was Ukraine's leading military
before the war.
Quote from: Que on January 22, 2023, 12:32:32 AMIf he is purposely aiming for a military stalemate, he'd better say so. But he doesn't... A stalemate would be in Russia's favour in the long run since it has unlimited amount of cannon fodder and it will lead to prolongued slaughter and loss of human lives.
Stalemate is the reality. Explicit US policy in this war is clear: permanently weaken Russia. There is no guesswork or ambiguity; Lloyd Austin stated it publicly. NATO has officially taken the line that this war will last. European politicians have publicly embraced the idea. A war of attrition is policy. Tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian civilians must die for the policy. Hundreds of thousands or millions of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers must die for the policy.
German actions, which are entirely reasonable, will likely not have much impact. They only can if Germany publicly and openly breaks with NATO policy. Germany should do so.
There are two alternatives to stalemate. First, is a negotiated settlement, with the US taking the lead in immediately and publicly calling for a ceasefire, ceasing support for Ukraine, and pushing for a settlement. This is the morally superior and economically more just option. Far fewer innocent people would die.
Second is escalation, whereby NATO and the US send more and more advanced weapons to Ukraine, resulting in the deaths of more soldiers, the accelerated death of civilians in Ukraine as the result of Russian reprisals, and the possibility of the use of chemical or nuclear weapons by Russia. Escalation is callous, cavalier, and innately immoral. Unfortunately, escalation is quite possible.
As an article in Foreign Policy stated, Ukraine's War Is Like World War I, Not World War II The West is using the wrong analogy for Russia's invasion—and worsening the outcome. (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/27/ukraines-war-is-like-world-war-i-not-world-war-ii/#:~:text=Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20War%20Is%20Like%20World%20War%20I%2C%20Not,fellow%20at%20the%20Quincy%20Institute%20for%20Responsible%20Statecraft.)
(I know, I know, the author works for the Quincy Institute.)
Quote from: Todd on January 22, 2023, 05:27:48 AMFar fewer innocent people would die.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
I presume Todd has been banned from New Hampshire?
Quote from: Todd on January 22, 2023, 05:27:48 AMStalemate is the reality. Explicit US policy in this war is clear: permanently weaken Russia. There is no guesswork or ambiguity; Lloyd Austin stated it publicly. NATO has officially taken the line that this war will last. European politicians have publicly embraced the idea. A war of attrition is policy. Tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian civilians must die for the policy. Hundreds of thousands or millions of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers must die for the policy.
German actions, which are entirely reasonable, will likely not have much impact. They only can if Germany publicly and openly breaks with NATO policy. Germany should do so.
There are two alternatives to stalemate. First, is a negotiated settlement, with the US taking the lead in immediately and publicly calling for a ceasefire, ceasing support for Ukraine, and pushing for a settlement. This is the morally superior and economically more just option. Far fewer innocent people would die.
Second is escalation, whereby NATO and the US send more and more advanced weapons to Ukraine, resulting in the deaths of more soldiers, the accelerated death of civilians in Ukraine as the result of Russian reprisals, and the possibility of the use of chemical or nuclear weapons by Russia. Escalation is callous, cavalier, and innately immoral. Unfortunately, escalation is quite possible.
As an article in Foreign Policy stated, Ukraine's War Is Like World War I, Not World War II The West is using the wrong analogy for Russia's invasion—and worsening the outcome. (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/27/ukraines-war-is-like-world-war-i-not-world-war-ii/#:~:text=Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20War%20Is%20Like%20World%20War%20I%2C%20Not,fellow%20at%20the%20Quincy%20Institute%20for%20Responsible%20Statecraft.)
(I know, I know, the author works for the Quincy Institute.)
And as usual in so many of your posts, Putin - who is responsible for the war and is the one person who can end it at any time - is not mentioned at all.
Quote from: LKB on January 22, 2023, 06:12:43 AMAnd as usual in so many of your posts, Putin - who is responsible for the war and is the one person who can end it at any time - is not mentioned at all.
Putin is bad. Hope that helps.
Gentlemen, forget WWII, forget WWI. Go back to the American Revolutionary War, in which 13 British colonies fought for independence from UK (ie, they wanted to escape the British Crown's sphere of influence) and were heavily helped militarily by France and to a lesser extent by Spain and The Netherlands.
According to you know who, the morally superior and economically just option a year into the war were for France to taking the lead in immediately and publicly calling for a ceasefire, ceasing support for the rebel colonies, and pushing for a settlement. Far fewer innocent people would have died.
Quote from: Madiel on January 22, 2023, 05:38:08 AMhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
It didn't affect in any way the safety of the US citizens or the economical interests of the US. Why so much fuss about it, then?
Quote from: Florestan on January 22, 2023, 06:47:17 AMGentlemen, forget WWII, forget WWI. Go back to the American Revolutionary War, in which 13 British colonies fought for independence from UK (ie, they wanted to escape the British Crown's sphere of influence) and were heavily helped militarily by France and to a lesser extent by Spain and The Netherlands.
According to you know who, the morally superior and economically just option a year into the war were for France to taking the lead in immediately and publicly calling for a ceasefire, ceasing support for the rebel colonies, and pushing for a settlement. Far fewer innocent people would have died.
I was cryptic about it, but I refer you to New Hampshire. And its state motto.
Quote from: LKB on January 22, 2023, 06:12:43 AMAnd as usual in so many of your posts, Putin - who is responsible for the war and is the one person who can end it at any time - is not mentioned at all.
Of course he can't see Putin, because Putin is standing behind him with his hand shoved in. This is how puppets work.
Quote from: Madiel on January 22, 2023, 07:18:55 AMI was cryptic about it, but I refer you to New Hampshire. And its state motto.
Hah!
But then again, you know,
quod licet Jovi*, non licet bovi**.
* ie, the proud, free-loving and freedom-deserving Anglo-Saxon Americans
**, ie, why should any proud, free-loving and freedom-deserving Anglo-Saxon American care about whether Ukrainian Slavs are ruled by Russian Slavs? They are not inhabitants of the land of the free, nor do they dwell in the home of the braves...
Quote from: Florestan on January 22, 2023, 06:47:17 AMGentlemen, forget WWII, forget WWI. Go back to the American Revolutionary War, in which 13 British colonies fought for independence from UK (ie, they wanted to escape the British Crown's sphere of influence) and were heavily helped militarily by France and to a lesser extent by Spain and The Netherlands.
According to you know who, the morally superior and economically just option a year into the war were for France to taking the lead in immediately and publicly calling for a ceasefire, ceasing support for the rebel colonies, and pushing for a settlement. Far fewer innocent people would have died.
France supported the colonies. The US should not support Ukraine.
Also, WWII is a better analogy to the current war, and it is a worthless analogy.
Quote from: Todd on January 22, 2023, 07:38:31 AMThe US should not support Ukraine.
Because Russia should win this war? Brilliant.
Quote from: Que on January 22, 2023, 10:46:20 AMBecause Russia should win this war? Brilliant.
As always, one needs to define what is meant by the word "win".
The US should not be engaged in any war, either directly or via material economic and military support, unless US strategic and economic interests are harmed or at risk. The war in Yemen has more potential to harm US interests over the next thirty to forty years than the war in Ukraine. Ukraine can be ruled by Russia outright and the US would be safe and secure. Critical allies in Europe, too. (Not all allies in Europe are equally important.) Bellicose European countries can continue to provide all financial and military assistance to prevent Russia from "winning". Europeans need to step up.
Of course, multiple institutional interests are driving the US to pursue a reckless, militaristic, expansionary policy that is overextending and will continue to overextend it. The full array of tools deployed in this war are not having the desired effect and are exposing weaknesses in the international system and showing the limits of US power. This is especially true in the economic realm. The illusion of great power cannot be maintained if just perceptions of economic power falter. The US is accelerating its decline as a result of its foolish policies in this war, though not hugely - the US will not "collapse" in the next ten years, or anything like that.
Quote from: Todd on January 22, 2023, 11:04:46 AMAs always, one needs to define what is meant by the word "win".
Russia will win this war when it can do with Ukraine as it pleases.
The enemies of Britain supported the insurrection in the American colonies to weaken Britain, and they succeeded.
Quote from: Que on January 22, 2023, 11:16:43 AMRussia will win this war when it can do with Ukraine as it pleases.
That is an unlikely outcome. If European countries step up as needed, the outcome could be avoided without any additional support from the US.
Quote from: Que on January 22, 2023, 11:16:43 AMThe enemies of Britain supported the insurrection in the American colonies to weaken Britain, and they succeeded.
This is historically inaccurate. The British Empire reached its zenith around the time of the Great War. France succumbed to revolution only a few short years after expending blood and treasure supporting the colonies. And the US engaged in an undeclared war with France only a few short years after the French Revolution. Late 18th Century France doesn't really offer a meaningful analog to today's events.
Russia is weaker than the USSR. If it manages to rule all of Ukraine, it would still be weaker than the USSR. Russia is a declining empire by every measure.
Russia is putting Pantsir-S1 SAM Systems on Moscow rooftops. It's a pity they can't shoot down stray cigarettes.
Prolonging the war kills more civilians than providing the weapons to allow the Ukes to finish it. Cutting off weapons entirely can't be done.
Germany wants to be forced to allow the Leopards to roll. It stands out a mile. Peacemongery is in the national DNA. I understand, and I almost sympathize. (https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/tongue.gif)
Macron and Scholz mend strained France-Germany friendship
Olaf Scholz called on France and Germany to be Europe's 'driving force' while Emmanuel Macron said the two countries could be the continent's 'pioneers'. (https://www.lemonde.fr/en/germany/article/2023/01/22/macron-and-scholz-mend-strained-french-german-friendship_6012604_146.html)
(Le Monde)
Hilarious quotes... Keep on dreaming, gentlemen...
I see we're back to the part where Todd is unable to see how the USA benefits from one of the world's most important agricultural economies being stable.
I think we ran around that particular circle in... April? Something like April.
When he's not being a troll he's just being a brick wall. The value of argument doesn't go up.
Now if you want to know how DANES pronounce the letter V, the answer is... where possible they don't so much pronounce it as kind of glide over it, like it's a brief catch in the stream of vowels.
Quote from: Todd on January 22, 2023, 11:04:46 AMAs always, one needs to define what is meant by the word "win".
The US should not be engaged in any war, either directly or via material economic and military support, unless US strategic and economic interests are harmed or at risk. The war in Yemen has more potential to harm US interests over the next thirty to forty years than the war in Ukraine. Ukraine can be ruled by Russia outright and the US would be safe and secure. Critical allies in Europe, too. (Not all allies in Europe are equally important.) Bellicose European countries can continue to provide all financial and military assistance to prevent Russia from "winning". Europeans need to step up.
Of course, multiple institutional interests are driving the US to pursue a reckless, militaristic, expansionary policy that is overextending and will continue to overextend it. The full array of tools deployed in this war are not having the desired effect and are exposing weaknesses in the international system and showing the limits of US power. This is especially true in the economic realm. The illusion of great power cannot be maintained if just perceptions of economic power falter. The US is accelerating its decline as a result of its foolish policies in this war, though not hugely - the US will not "collapse" in the next ten years, or anything like that.
Factually incorrect, to the point of being utterly comedic. Also typically disingenuous, but that's obvious enough that l hesitate to even mention it.
Todd, in all seriousness you should simply admit that you're on Putin's side, and want him to annihilate Ukraine's national identity and re-establish imperial Russia. It would make matters here easier for everyone, including you.
Quote from: LKB on January 22, 2023, 01:38:22 PMFactually incorrect, to the point of being utterly comedic. Also typically disingenuous, but that's obvious enough that l hesitate to even mention it.
Todd, in all seriousness you should simply admit that you're on Putin's side, and want him to annihilate Ukraine's national identity and re-establish imperial Russia. It would make matters here easier for everyone, including you.
You are confused.
Quote from: Madiel on January 22, 2023, 12:30:53 PMWhen he's not being a troll he's just being a brick wall.
Correct.
Quote from: Madiel on January 22, 2023, 12:30:53 PMNow if you want to know how DANES pronounce the letter V, the answer is... where possible they don't so much pronounce it as kind of glide over it, like it's a brief catch in the stream of vowels.
Yes, a funny description with a lot of truth in it. ;D We are somewhat sloppy with the pronunciation of consonants and like to eat them whenever possible. And that's why I preferred to compare the English pronounciation with the Dutch or German pronounciation.
Quote from: premont on January 22, 2023, 02:01:01 PMCorrect.
Yes, a funny description with a lot of truth in it. ;D We are somewhat sloppy with the pronunciation of consonants and like to eat them whenever possible. And that's why I preferred to compare the English pronounciation with the Dutch or German pronounciation.
This is a classic first shown to me by my Danish teacher. https://www.reddit.com/r/languagelearning/comments/7ch3e2/how_to_pronounce_any_danish_word/
Progress:
Ukraine war: Germany won't block export of its Leopard 2 tanks (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64370165)
Quote from: Que on January 22, 2023, 11:16:43 AMRussia will win this war when it can do with Ukraine as it pleases.
you are correct insofar that the power with the world's largest nuclear arsenal cannot lose this war, unless they voluntarily do not use at least the threat of nuclear power (i.e. the opponent is at their goodwill and mercy not to use the nuclear option).
But if the West was not so mad to imagine they could bring such a nuclear power to their heels by a few dozen more tanks, there could be a solution without the physical destruction of Ukraine (and economic devastation in a lot of Western Europe).
I am pretty sure that Russia would agree to keeping Crimea, Donbass (basically the regions where the conflict raged since 2014) and some treaty leaving the remaining of Ukraine neutral. (So Russia could not do as they please.) But this would be seen as Russia having won. (Correct in a sense, but who has one if instead the whole of Ukraine is devastated and Western Europe economically crippled?)
Therefore we "have to" prolong this war and increase the risk of a potentially nuclear world war. I am really stunned how almost everyone here seems in favor of this, especially people living in Europe. To save the ambitions of an utterly corrupt country like Ukraine or "teach Putin a lesson"? These are understandable motivations but irrational from a geopolitical PoV and cannot lead to an end of war.
Quote from: Jo498 on January 23, 2023, 01:05:40 AMI am pretty sure that Russia would agree to keeping Crimea, Donbass (basically the regions where the conflict raged since 2014) and some treaty leaving the remaining of Ukraine neutral. (So Russia could not do as they please.) But this would be seen as Russia having won.
This will be the inevitable outcome of the war, whether it ends tomorrow or after ten years.
Is the world's largest nuclear arsenal actually functioning? Asking for a friend.
Quote from: Jo498 on January 23, 2023, 01:05:40 AMyou are correct insofar that the power with the world's largest nuclear arsenal cannot lose this war, unless they voluntarily do not use at least the threat of nuclear power (i.e. the opponent is at their goodwill and mercy not to use the nuclear option).
But if the West was not so mad to imagine they could bring such a nuclear power to their heels by a few dozen more tanks, there could be a solution without the physical destruction of Ukraine (and economic devastation in a lot of Western Europe).
I am pretty sure that Russia would agree to keeping Crimea, Donbass (basically the regions where the conflict raged since 2014) and some treaty leaving the remaining of Ukraine neutral. (So Russia could not do as they please.) But this would be seen as Russia having won. (Correct in a sense, but who has one if instead the whole of Ukraine is devastated and Western Europe economically crippled?)
Therefore we "have to" prolong this war and increase the risk of a potentially nuclear world war. I am really stunned how almost everyone here seems in favor of this, especially people living in Europe. To save the ambitions of an utterly corrupt country like Ukraine or "teach Putin a lesson"? These are understandable motivations but irrational from a geopolitical PoV and cannot lead to an end of war.
Spoken like a true
@Todd clone.
Well, dah, giving in to Russian demands would end the Ukraine "special military operation": likely so.
But there are a few problems with that:
- Ukraine forfeits all its national sovereignty;
- Reduction of Ukraine to national serfdom won't be the end of Putin's aggression which would subsequently turn to Moldova, then the Baltics, then maybe Poland;
- It would set the president that nations with nuclear weapons could demand almost anything they want and get it with impunity.
Personally, short of a direct invasion of Russia, I think Putin is unlikely use nukes. The reason is simple and is just a continuation of the Cold War "MAD" standoff. If Russia uses nuke, the USA will respond, possibly in-kind. (This illustrates the critical role of the USA in NATO: the only significant nuclear power in that organization and a counter to its nuclear opponents.)
Quote from: Madiel on January 23, 2023, 01:59:53 AMIs the world's largest nuclear arsenal actually functioning? Asking for a friend.
I guess you in Australia can be so "heroic" (still wearing face masks?) to take that risk. I am not. I would have been turned to radioactive dust from "friendly nuclear missiles" if the Cold War had become hot in the 1980s (living between the Rhine and the Fulda gap) and I don't care for the prospect.
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 12:10:46 AMProgress:
Ukraine war: Germany won't block export of its Leopard 2 tanks (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64370165)
The imperial overlord applied irresistible pressure. That is the antithesis of progress.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 03:50:34 AMUkraine forfeits all its national sovereignty;
So? One thing I would surely like to see is an explanation of how this negatively impacts US security and interests. Any response would need to keep in mind that the US does not need to engage itself in wars choice.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 03:50:34 AMReduction of Ukraine to national serfdom won't be the end of Putin's aggression which would subsequently turn to Moldova, then the Baltics, then maybe Poland;
This does not follow. It is fearmongering combined with warmongering.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 03:50:34 AMIt would set the president that nations with nuclear weapons could demand almost anything they want and get it with impunity.
The US has shown that for decades.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 03:50:34 AMPersonally, short of a direct invasion of Russia, I think Putin is unlikely use nukes. The reason is simple and is just a continuation of the Cold War "MAD" standoff.
The corporate press has reported that US policymakers have purposely withheld sending certain equipment and approving certain military actions by Ukraine precisely because of the risk of escalation. This goes well beyond MAD because the war is right on Russia's border. People cannot see the most basic realities right in front of their eyes. Hell, even Biden said that we are closer to a nuclear exchange than anytime since 1962.
Quote from: Jo498 on January 23, 2023, 04:24:04 AMI guess you in Australia can be so "heroic" (still wearing face masks?) to take that risk. I am not. I would have been turned to radioactive dust from "friendly nuclear missiles" if the Cold War had become hot in the 1980s (living between the Rhine and the Fulda gap) and I don't care for the prospect.
On this forum, the most ferocious combatants almost to a man come from the smallest, weakest countries.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 03:50:34 AMSpoken like a true @Todd clone. Well, dah, giving in to Russian demands would end the Ukraine "special military operation": likely so.
Whose clone are you? I certainly don't need a cynical American to think for myself. (FWIW I think I disagree with Todd that the US is not benefitting from this war; Russia is weakened, so is the EU (our industry is hampered and we become dependent on "clean, green" US LNG. I mean, we are so wimpily weak that we have to ignore a hostile act of sabotage against a pipeline worth billions!)
QuoteBut there are a few problems with that:
- Ukraine forfeits all its national sovereignty;
- Reduction of Ukraine to national serfdom won't be the end of Putin's aggression which would subsequently turn to Moldova, then the Baltics, then maybe Poland;
- It would set the president that nations with nuclear weapons could demand almost anything they want and get it with impunity.
None of this follows, except the last point that didn't need this particular case as an illustration. (The strong do what they want and the weak suffer what they must. The Melians only wanted to remain neutral, they weren't even enemies of the Athenians - sometimes one cannot remain neutral as a weak state in between.)
Russia tolerated the red lines being crossed in case of the Baltics, Poland, Romania but the Ukraine was obviously one line too many. But they have their hands quite full with Ukraine and certainly not the power to attack other countries, especially not NATO members that were never part of the SU (like Poland).
Ukraine was rejected by the EU because they were corrupt even beyond what the EU-corruptocrats were willing to tolerate (or the corruption was already too much bound up with Bidens or Russians, so there was not enough in there for the EU). Then they wanted to join some customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan. Than Nuland etc. orchestrated that coup and installed anti-Russian puppets. Then Russia took Crimea and civil war began in the Eastern Ukraine. Unfortunately Europe apparently then fell asleep for 7 years and ignored that conflict, so they were caught unawares by the escalation a year ago. For whatever reason (probably they are just forced as vassals by the US) they are now willing to sacrifice almost everything for a country that less than 10 years ago they found too corrupt to have closer relations with.
In a war that country cannot win, IF "winning" means getting Crimea back. Of course, there has to be some face-saving solution with a few districts being shuffled between future West-Ukraine and the Eastern parts. And there will be treaties to ensure that (West)Ukraine is not a Russian vassal but neutral. I don't see any alternative, Russia will not give Crimea back and if they become too weak to hold the Donbass regions they want, the conflict would also continue. Likewise with more secret US/NATO stuff going on in a Western-associated Ukraine (although Russia might be content with the future "East Ukraine" as buffer, not sure). How can you expect the conflict to become solved if the situation that led to the conflict in the first place (casus belli) remains?
Unless you prefer World War III what is your alternative proposal? Hope to wear down Russia over many years (and hope they remain "nice" and don't use nuclear?) and the collateral damage of an economically devastated (and thus probably politically unstable) Western Europe will be worth it?
Quote from: Todd on January 23, 2023, 04:32:27 AMOn this forum, the most ferocious combatants almost to a man come from the smallest, weakest countries.
It's the same with German politicians and journalists. The conscientious objector hippies of the 1980s-00s (and also many women like our pretty puppet of a foreign minister who of course didn't even need a conscience to avoid the military service) have become the worst warmongers since decades. Because it's cheap and easy, no skin in the game.
(Even in the cold war it was only far right "old comrades" or the "rather dead than Red" faction who came close to such warmongering but they usually at least knew to some extent what they were talking about, having living memories of a war.)
Quote from: Jo498 on January 23, 2023, 04:58:25 AMI mean, we are so wimpily weak that we have to ignore a hostile act of sabotage against a pipeline worth billions!
When it occurred and Russia was blamed, the corporate press described the destruction of the pipelines as an act of war and a war crime. Now that the evidence is not conclusive, the corporate press is mum. Take from that what you will.
Also, I hasten to add that I have been clear that certain US interests benefit mightily from this war, but that is different than the US as a whole benefitting. Let's take LNG exports. Clearly the gas producers, pipeline operators, LNG facility owners, shipping companies, insurance companies, and banks and other financial companies that finance the operations are gaining. However, some markets in the US have seen sharp increases in gas prices, which harms everyday Americans. (My local gas utility is more properly regulated, so my monthly gas bill went up $14, no biggie.) Basically, the US is experiencing a comparatively mild form of war profiteering in energy.
Quote from: Jo498 on January 23, 2023, 05:06:47 AMBecause it's cheap and easy, no skin in the game.
QFT.
Quote from: Jo498 on January 23, 2023, 04:58:25 AMWhose clone are you? I certainly don't need a cynical American to think for myself. (FWIW I think I disagree with Todd that the US is not benefitting from this war; Russia is weakened, so is the EU (our industry is hampered and we become dependent on "clean, green" US LNG. I mean, we are so wimpily weak that we have to ignore a hostile act of sabotage against a pipeline worth billions!)
None of this follows, except the last point that didn't need this particular case as an illustration. (The strong do what they want and the weak suffer what they must. The Melians only wanted to remain neutral, they weren't even enemies of the Athenians - sometimes one cannot remain neutral as a weak state in between.)
Russia tolerated the red lines being crossed in case of the Baltics, Poland, Romania but the Ukraine was obviously one line too many. But they have their hands quite full with Ukraine and certainly not the power to attack other countries, especially not NATO members that were never part of the SU (like Poland).
Ukraine was rejected by the EU because they were corrupt even beyond what the EU-corruptocrats were willing to tolerate (or the corruption was already too much bound up with Bidens or Russians, so there was not enough in there for the EU). Then they wanted to join some customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan. Than Nuland etc. orchestrated that coup and installed anti-Russian puppets. Then Russia took Crimea and civil war began in the Eastern Ukraine. Unfortunately Europe apparently then fell asleep for 7 years and ignored that conflict, so they were caught unawares by the escalation a year ago. For whatever reason (probably they are just forced as vassals by the US) they are now willing to sacrifice almost everything for a country that less than 10 years ago they found too corrupt to have closer relations with.
In a war that country cannot win, IF "winning" means getting Crimea back. Of course, there has to be some face-saving solution with a few districts being shuffled between future West-Ukraine and the Eastern parts. And there will be treaties to ensure that (West)Ukraine is not a Russian vassal but neutral. I don't see any alternative, Russia will not give Crimea back and if they become too weak to hold the Donbass regions they want, the conflict would also continue. Likewise with more secret US/NATO stuff going on in a Western-associated Ukraine (although Russia might be content with the future "East Ukraine" as buffer, not sure). How can you expect the conflict to become solved if the situation that led to the conflict in the first place (casus belli) remains?
Unless you prefer World War III what is your alternative proposal? Hope to wear down Russia over many years (and hope they remain "nice" and don't use nuclear?) and the collateral damage of an economically devastated (and thus probably politically unstable) Western Europe will be worth it?
For one thing, I'm not America. Despite, (or maybe because of that), I can concede the importance of the USA in world affairs without resentment. Further, I can be grateful for the fact that the USA believes that democracy and rule-of-law are, not only just, but also in its self-interest.
What possible reason is there for Ukrainian "neutrality" other than to placate Russian/Putin's ambitions? There is nothing
natural about Ukrainian subservience to Russia -- certainly not when there is the option of profitable association with the EU for instance.
I don't actually hope to "wear down Russia over many years" -- I wish Russian and Russians well. I only wish to thwart the Soviet
revanchist ambitions of Putin.
Russia would have been much better off today if it had sought and earned EU association I really am beginning to wonder if covert Russian Internet operatives have discovered and infiltrated this site. The pro-Russian, anti-American sentiments expressed by a small number here are so
outré that they seem to beg that explanation.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 05:22:38 AMRussia would have been much better off today if it had sought and earned EU association
Eurocentrism is very powerful and it misleads.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 05:22:38 AMI really am beginning to wonder if covert Russian Internet operatives have discovered and infiltrated this site. The pro-Russian, anti-American sentiments expressed by a small number here are so outré that they seem to beg that explanation.
Since this is clearly aimed at me, perhaps you can explain how I am either pro-Russian or, more particularly, anti-American.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 03:50:34 AMPutin's aggression which would subsequently turn to Moldova, then the Baltics, then maybe Poland;
That's highly unlikely.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 03:50:34 AMPersonally, short of a direct invasion of Russia, I think Putin is unlikely use nukes.
Yes but we have to take into account the fact that, in Putin's view, Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk "popular republics" are Russian territory.
Quote from: Florestan on January 23, 2023, 06:15:16 AMYes but we have to take into account the fact that, in Putin's view, Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk "popular republics" are Russian territory.
Yes, that is what he says. But I suspect he would not risk using nukes to defend them because, I would say, he believes the Russian
hoi-polloi are not will to accept nuclear war to defend them and because losing them would have minimal effect on his grip on power.
In general Putin would like the NATO and the West to any assertive action in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war: I'm saying that that is not so. (Send in the Leopards and Abrams.)
Quote from: Florestan on January 23, 2023, 06:08:04 AMQuote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 03:50:34 AMBut there are a few problems with that {giving in to Russian demands}:
- Ukraine forfeits all its national sovereignty;
- Reduction of Ukraine to national serfdom won't be the end of Putin's aggression which would subsequently turn to Moldova, then the Baltics, then maybe Poland;
- It would set the president that nations with nuclear weapons could demand almost anything they want and get it with impunity.
That's highly unlikely.
No so unlikely; certainly not for Moldova in the short run following a "victory" in Ukraine. (Moldova not being a NATO member and having as significant Russian minority.)
Bear in mind my last point above. "Victory" in Ukraine would reinforce for Putin his belief in Russian impunity as a nuclear power. There would be no particular limits to his ambitions.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 06:59:25 AMThere would be no particular limits to his ambitions.
There would be practical limits.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 23, 2023, 06:59:25 AMNo so unlikely; certainly not for Moldova in the short run following a "victory" in Ukraine. (Moldova not being a NATO member and having as significant Russian minority.)
Moldova has no border with Russia. To invade Moldova the Russians will have to go through, well, Ukraine.
Quote from: Florestan on January 23, 2023, 06:15:16 AMYes but we have to take into account the fact that, in Putin's view, Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk "popular republics" are Russian territory.
We take bluffs into account for what they plainly are. Putin and his TV minions blow hot and cold on nukes like they know it's not working.
This isn't hard to grok. When Plan A is to threaten the use of nukes, it's not plan B to use them.
For the purpose of understanding the oddities of selective anti-imperialism, ponder this.
It totally is/is not US responsibility for deciding who fights in Ukraine on either side. US power overwhelms the agency of all actors everywhere, which is inevitable/evil/none of US business.
US power is beyond anything and shouldn't be beyond US borders, with a few minor exceptions that will be detailed in the early 22nd century.
Enough of that. It makes you carsick if you stay with it too long.
My view is different. The US imperial project has been shaped by many hands and not according to a master plan. What I find peculiar about it is the extraordinarily low amount of force applied to keep it going. Instead the US bribed much of the world to side with it, without fully comprehending that bribery dollars come back. The fallacy of Pure Cost was strong in the '40s. It's even strong today.
I do place value on open societies cooperating while competing non-violently. Moral/ethical systems have a pragmatic and not metaphysical foundation. Dennett is correct that "being good in order to seem good" is how it works. Reputation goes all the way up from the personal to the imperial level.
The US isn't well liked and is trusted. Russia is well hated and distrusted. Any agreement with Russia will be in the nature of "we'll stop shooting if you leave now". The Present Russian government has no ability to make agreements beyond what it does in a few days, if that. Substantive agreements that are expected to stick will be among the Europeans and their allies abroad.
Could you please summarize your point in a single sentence, preferably an intelligible one? ;D
Poland will ask permission to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
Germany will OK this if the US sends Abrams tanks.
The US will not send Abrams tanks.
Poland will send the tanks.
Many nontank armored vehicles are being sent, some with guns as powerful as the ones on tanks. What's significant is that Russian tanks and other armored vehicles will be destroyed. Russian positions will be overrun. The Russian human wave tactics are only useful against an insufficiently armed opponent.
I said before that Germany wants to be forced to send the tanks. I judge most of the reluctance is of this performative nature.
Quote from: Florestan on January 23, 2023, 09:32:36 AMCould you please summarize your point in a single sentence, preferably an intelligible one? ;D
Of course I can. I rendered nonsense in its native language, and you correctly identified it as such.
It totally is/is not US responsibility for deciding who fights in Ukraine on either side. US power overwhelms the agency of all actors everywhere, which is inevitable/evil/none of US business.
The lack of sense or clarity is the point. It's what the sentence is about. OK, it's 2 sentences. I hope that's not too many.
(https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/evil.gif)
Quote from: drogulus on January 23, 2023, 09:52:09 AMPoland will ask permission to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
Germany will OK this if the US sends Abrams tanks.
The US will not send Abrams tanks.
Poland will send the tanks.
Many nontank armored vehicles are being sent, some with guns as powerful as the ones on tanks. What's significant is that Russian tanks and other armored vehicles will be destroyed. Russian positions will be overrun. The Russian human wave tactics are only useful against an insufficiently armed opponent.
I said before that Germany wants to be forced to send the tanks. I judge most of the reluctance is of this performative nature.
Yes.
As to the endgame... It's hard to predict...
For the forseeable future it is clear that Putin will not relent, will not negotiate. This will continue till Putin is out of options.
I think (speculate) what by then will be on the table for Russia will be Crimea, with resumed water supply but without a marinebasis in Sebastopol, and the lifting of Western sanctions. No forced neutrality of Ukraine, no Donbas...
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 10:05:06 AMFor the forseeable future it is clear that Putin will not relent, will not negotiate. This will continue till Putin is out of options.
I think (speculate) what by then will be on the table for Russia will be Crimea, with resumed water supply but without a marinebasis in Sebastopol, and the lifting of Western sanctions. No forced neutrality of Ukraine, no Donbas...
How long will this take and how many Ukrainian civilians are you willing to sacrifice for these ends? And yes, I ask you how many you are willing to sacrifice. Not Putin. Not Biden. Not Zelensky.
What can Putin negotiate? What's his word worth to anyone outside Russia, or even inside Russia for that matter?
By all means Europeans should explore negotiations the way they traditionally do with parties unable or unwilling to negotiate. The shape of the table is where to start.
We can't hurry negotiations by cutting off Ukraine. I gave my reasons.
Quote from: Todd on January 23, 2023, 10:15:55 AMHow long will this take and how many Ukrainian civilians are you willing to sacrifice for these ends? And yes, I ask you how many you are willing to sacrifice. Not Putin. Not Biden. Not Zelensky.
Wrong question. My opinion is that Ukraine needs to be supported in its decision to defend itself and resist Russian usurpation.
Public support in Ukraine is still overwhelming in favour of fighting to resist Russia. How many lives would the US be willing to sacrifice for its territorial integrity and independence. How many lives would you be willing to sacrifice?
Quote from: drogulus on January 23, 2023, 10:27:02 AMWe can't hurry negotiations by cutting off Ukraine.
No, we cannot.
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 10:31:12 AMWrong question.
No, it is the right question, and you did not answer it. So is the number one million civilians? Two million civilians? If you don't want to answer, that's fine.
Here's another question: do you believe Ukraine is winning?
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 10:31:12 AMPublic support in Ukraine is still overwhelming in favour of fighting to resist Russia.
How do you
know? Polling data? Did that include the millions who fled?
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 10:31:12 AMHow many lives would the US be willing to sacrifice for its territorial integrity and independence. How many lives would you be willing to sacrifice?
This is an irrelevant question. The US could literally destroy the world to defend itself. Like Russia.
Deutsche Welle is reporting that Germany has given permission for Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
What a shock, right?
Quote from: Todd on January 23, 2023, 10:36:54 AMNo, it is the right question, and you did not answer it.
It's not for me to answer. It's not my sacrifice, nor that of my country, nor that of any other country that supports Ukraine. It's up to the Ukrainians and their government to make this decision.
QuoteHere's another question: do you believe Ukraine is winning?
It depends how you define winning. Sofar it has successfully avoided being overrun by Russian troops and defended its independence.
QuoteHow do you know? Polling data? Did that include the millions who fled?
There have indeed been polls.
QuoteThis is an irrelevant question. The US could literally destroy the world to defend itself. Like Russia.
Incorrect. The question might be hypothetical but is relevant.
I don't think even GMG Big Brains have the authority to tell the Ukrainians to surrender.
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 10:51:49 AMIt's not for me to answer.
Actually, it very much is. I am not asking how many civilians that Ukrainians are willing to sacrifice. I am explicitly asking you how many you are willing to sacrifice. The answer relies solely on your judgment.
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 10:51:49 AMSo far it has successfully avoided being overrun by Russian troops and defended its independence.
Last I read, Ukraine had lost territory in the east. Cities across the country have been bombarded, and some all but demolished. The economy is in shambles. Millions have fled. More than 40,000 civilians have died and there have been at least 100,000 military casualties. The Germans have expressed concerns at Ukrainian losses. The rosiest outlook has them barely hanging on. Without total support from the West, meaning overwhelmingly the US, the country would collapse. That is not winning.
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 10:51:49 AMThere have indeed been polls.
Yes, and I have seen some of them, and I question both the methodology and samples. I don't place faith in polls for something like an election, much less for something where potentially millions of lives are on the line.
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 10:51:49 AMIncorrect. The question might be hypothetical but is relevant.
No, it is irrelevant. No country will attack the US precisely because of the American nuclear deterrent. The US does not have to face choices lesser countries have to face.
Quote from: Jo498 on January 23, 2023, 04:24:04 AMI guess you in Australia can be so "heroic" (still wearing face masks?) to take that risk. I am not. I would have been turned to radioactive dust from "friendly nuclear missiles" if the Cold War had become hot in the 1980s (living between the Rhine and the Fulda gap) and I don't care for the prospect.
No, I'm simply raising it because I seem to remember stories raising doubts about Russia's capacity to keep its nuclear arsenal functioning.
The CIA director recently visited the Ukes to tell them what Russia is going to do, and what the US will do as well. Russia is going to try to launch a spring offensive, which will amount to a half a million man march from the north, south and east. The US is going to provide detailed info on the location of Russian forces so Ukraine can respond effectively with the better weapons it's getting.
There's some doubt about how big the Russian buildup will be. It may fall well short of the headline number.
The Wagner Group has about 10,000 fighters left from its recruitment drive. Tens of thousands are dead, missing or captured.
Quote from: Florestan on January 23, 2023, 06:15:16 AMYes but we have to take into account the fact that, in Putin's view, Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk "popular republics" are Russian territory.
In Putin's view, Ukraine is not a real country or nationality and the Ukrainian language is just Russian with a strange accent.
As previously mentioned, he is the kind of Russian who blames Ukrainian nationalism on the Austrians in the 19th century putting silly ideas in the heads of the folk in Lviv, and who claims Kyiv as the homeland of the Rus. Which it is, he just skips the part where the Russians are not actually descended from the Rus.
Ukraine expects to get 100 Leopard 2 tanks from 12 countries, once Germany approves: Senior Ukrainian official (https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-expects-100-leopard-2-tanks-12-countries/story?id=96620510)
Interesting news. Ukraine had asked for 300 Western tanks, but according to military experts a hundred could make a decisive difference in addition to the armored fight vehicles already promised.
Every little bit helps. If they can employ the initial shipments effectively, perhaps Germany will be more willing to render additional assistance.
Quote from: Que on January 23, 2023, 11:40:34 PMbut according to military experts a hundred could make a decisive difference in addition to the armored fight vehicles already promised.
The "decisiveness" of the tanks is not mentioned in the linked article. Do you have a separate link to the claims that the tanks could make a "decisive" difference? I used the Google machine and found no military analysts making such a claim. It merely looks like more of what Lindsey Graham so callously stated publicly.
Quote from: Florestan on January 23, 2023, 07:56:39 AMMoldova has no border with Russia. To invade Moldova the Russians will have to go through, well, Ukraine.
Well that's the point. A subservient Ukraine would permit Russia military to access Moldova.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 24, 2023, 07:05:13 AMWell that's the point. A subservient Ukraine would permit Russia military to access Moldova.
That could only happen in the event that Russia conquered all of Ukraine and replenished its military sufficiently to invade Moldova. The former condition will not occur and the latter would/will take years to accomplish. A negotiated settlement can establish new legal boundaries, a neutralized western Ukraine, and save lives, staving off imaginary future invasions by the Russian hobgoblin.
That written, whether Russia rules Moldova or not is unimportant.
It's the width of the front over which 100 modern MBTs are decisive. They will be used to punch holes in the Russian lines as part of a combined arms assault along with armored infantry vehicles and self propelled guns.
How wide will the holes be? That depends on how the Russians respond. What they should do is retreat far enough to be safe and let air cover handle the assault forces. Since the assault forces will have anti-aircraft vehicles to protect them, this will fail, but less spectacularly than trying to defend the trench positions.
I judge the "hole per tank" will be pretty wide. The Russians don't want to suffer the fate of the Iraqis.
We used to think the Iraqis were just bad at being Russians, now we see the Russians are pretty bad at being themselves.
It's not going to be 100 tanks the Ukes get. It will be more than that. Poland is leading the way, and there are several countries that will donate tanks to the cause.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 24, 2023, 07:05:13 AMA subservient Ukraine would permit Russia military to access Moldova.
The Russians will attack western Ukraine from Moldova once the southern corridor is established.
Of course the "no negotiations" Ukes are fighting to prevent that! Bad Ukes! Don't you respect legal norms like the Russians?
Quote from: Todd on January 24, 2023, 04:47:31 AMThe "decisiveness" of the tanks is not mentioned in the linked article. Do you have a separate link to the claims that the tanks could make a "decisive" difference? I used the Google machine and found no military analysts making such a claim. It merely looks like more of what Lindsey Graham so callously stated publicly.
Lindsey Graham? It's not clear to me what a US senator has to do with this.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-needs-to-get-about-100-tanks-for-breakthrough-experts-say-50297989.html
Quote from: Que on January 24, 2023, 08:21:45 AMLindsey Graham? It's not clear to me what a US senator has to do with this.
He publicly stated that if the US (and by extension NATO) arms Ukraine, Ukraine will fight to the last person. Sending tanks fits that macabre outlook.
The article you linked to is from The New Voice of Ukraine, which cannot possibly be treated as a neutral source. The article cites the IISS, a British think tank, along with a former UK chief of defense intelligence - again, not a neutral source - as the source of the shrewd analysis. It does offer a pretty significant caveat regarding training, parts, and battle plans. Your link falls into the category of confirmation bias and/or wishful thinking.
The analysis of current military leaders or intelligence services would be more useful, if also biased.
We know how decisive modern tanks are, with or without wishes.
If Russia had effective air cover they might be able to hold their positions. They don't have that. Tanks will be accompanied by the best anti-air weapons Ukraine has. I surmise that there will be Gepards covering the Leopards.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Gepard_1a2_overview_noBG.jpg/1200px-Gepard_1a2_overview_noBG.jpg)
These Flakpanzers are biased against Russian planes.
Quote from: Todd on January 24, 2023, 08:47:08 AMHe publicly stated that if the US (and by extension NATO) arms Ukraine, Ukraine will fight to the last person. Sending tanks fits that macabre outlook.
The article you linked to is from The New Voice of Ukraine, which cannot possibly be treated as a neutral source. The article cites the IISS, a British think tank, along with a former UK chief of defense intelligence - again, not a neutral source - as the source of the shrewd analysis. It does offer a pretty significant caveat regarding training, parts, and battle plans. Your link falls into the category of confirmation bias and/or wishful thinking.
The analysis of current military leaders or intelligence services would be more useful, if also biased.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (also quoted by other news sources) is not good enough? How predictable. ..
Quote from: Que on January 24, 2023, 09:15:11 AMThe International Institute for Strategic Studies (also quoted by other news sources) is not good enough? How predictable. ..
Neutral source = source Todd agrees with.
Biased source = source Todd disagrees with.
Quote from: Que on January 24, 2023, 09:15:11 AMThe International Institute for Strategic Studies (also quoted by other news sources) is not good enough? How predictable. ..
How much do you know about the IISS? Many think tanks are quoted by many sources all the time.
Quote from: Florestan on January 24, 2023, 09:49:19 AMBiased source = source Todd disagrees with.
All sources are biased.
Quote from: Que on January 24, 2023, 08:21:45 AMLindsey Graham? It's not clear to me what a US senator has to do with this.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-needs-to-get-about-100-tanks-for-breakthrough-experts-say-50297989.html
Now now, we already know this whole thing is about America, haven't you been listening?
Dept of Get This, You'll Love This
Another country has decided to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
Take a guess.
You cheated!!
Yeah, it's Germany
But wait, there's more!
Another country is going to send its own tanks that even have jet engines in them.
It's the United States.
Oh, Poland, you devils! You did it.
Senior Ukrainian officials ousted in corruption crackdown (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/senior-ukrainian-officials-depart-corruption-crackdown-rcna67130)
Nine leaders out. I'm sure the bad actors pilfered a few million at most. Maybe a hundred million. Perhaps a billion. But that's it. Gentle readers can rest assured this represents the totality of corruption in Ukraine. The flood gates of aid should burst forth, inundating the land with riches.
Kremlin Admits 'Putin's Chef' Might Be Assassinated Soon (https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-admits-wagner-group-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-might-be-assassinated-soon?ref=home)
I think it's more like Kremlin "admits".
Although Prigozhin is widely reported to have pissed off many officials in Vladimir Putin's orbit with his antics in Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it is actually authorities in Kyiv that Prigozhin should worry about.
I'm sure he's right. I'd still watch my back, Yevgeny. Stay away from windows.
Quote from: drogulus on January 24, 2023, 02:09:09 PMKremlin Admits 'Putin's Chef' Might Be Assassinated Soon (https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-admits-wagner-group-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-might-be-assassinated-soon?ref=home)
Must have been really bad at making Beef Stroganoff! :D
VS
Quote from: VonStupp on January 24, 2023, 02:22:27 PMMust have been really bad at making Beef Stroganoff! :D
VS
(* chortle *)
Quote from: Todd on January 24, 2023, 11:33:30 AMAll sources are biased.
Finally, something we can agree upon.
Quote from: Florestan on January 25, 2023, 01:50:57 AMFinally, something we can agree upon.
A broken clock is correct twice a day.
I'm not sure how often a broken record manages it...
Quote from: Florestan on January 25, 2023, 01:50:57 AMFinally, something we can agree upon.
Having a bias doesn't mean you are wrong. If your bias is that 2 + 2 = 4 and my bias is that 2 + 2 = 3.14, we both are biased, but you are the one who is correct and I am the one who is incorrect. Someone calling you biased just makes other people think you could be just as wrong as I am. That is one of the biggest problems we have, the 50 - 50 thinking on issues that are not 50 - 50, but 100 - 0 or maybe 99 - 1. If flat Earthers (and climate change deniers/anti-vaxxers/etc.) are given the same benefit of doubt as sane people, then we can expect people be unsure of whether the Earth is flat or not. The danger of debating lunatics is that people watching the debate are given a reason to take the lunatic seriously.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 25, 2023, 03:05:11 AMHaving a bias doesn't mean you are wrong.
Of course not. For instance, I have an anti-Russian bias but I am not wrong in stating that in 1812 Russia annexed the Moldovan territory of Bessarabia and in 1940 they annexed it again, this time along the Romanian territory of Northern Bukovina. Todd has an anti-NATO bias but he is not wrong in stating that in 1999 NATO bombed the sovereign state of then Serbia and Montenegro into accepting the carving up of their territory.
The point is that one cannot avoid having a bias and the idea of absolute and disinterested neutrality is a myth. That's why I objected to Todd's calling the IISS "not a neutral source"; there is no such thing as a neutral source.
Quote from: Florestan on January 25, 2023, 03:47:07 AMThe point is that one cannot avoid having a bias and the idea of absolute and disinterested neutrality is a myth. That's why I objected to Todd's calling the IISS "not a neutral source"; there is no such thing as a neutral source.
Neutrality is about not taking sides. So, if you express something from the perspective of all biases, you are effectively neutral, but being neutral isn't a particularly good thing! Saying the Earth could be flat, but it could just as well be a globe is neutral, but not good at all for informing/educating people about facts.
Objectivity on the other hand is about seeking for the truth whatever it happens to be. The side is chosen and it is the truth, even when it is against personal bias. Objectivity requires intellectual honesty and is "difficult."
Subjectivity is when personal bias dictates whether the chosen side is the truth or not. The truth is favoured whenever it is convenient for supporting the bias, but otherwise not. Subjectivity is easy and tempting making it common.
A person of media literacy and at least some knowledge of the World can notice when for example a news story is neutral, objective or subjective. Neutral-looking information is often subjectivity in disguise and that's the reason why pure neutrality is rare.
I suggest people here read Bernays.
From DW - it's made for minds, after all: 'Doomsday Clock' moves closer to midnight amid Ukraine war (https://www.dw.com/en/doomsday-clock-moves-closer-to-midnight-amid-ukraine-war/a-64503629)
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/320xn/p06yg32l.jpg)
The US is not sending Abrams tanks to fight. It's sending them so other tanks will be sent to fight.
It's part of the deal with Germany.
The US is increasing production of 155mm artillery shells by 500%. Stocks are running low so the US needs to replenish its own supply as well as send more to Ukraine.
The US is sending 160 M777 Howitzers and over a million rounds for them as of the most recent aid package. There will be more.
From CNN: US finalizing plans to send approximately 30 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two US officials say (https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/us-abram-tanks-ukraine/index.html)
Escalation = Progress.
Doctors are not neutral between the disease and the cure. Should I worry?
Quote from: drogulus on January 25, 2023, 08:02:07 AMDoctors are not neutral between the disease and the cure. Should I worry?
If doctors were neutral they would say you may have cancer or you may not and if you have cancer, any treatment might cure you or then they might not. You don't want such doctors. You want your doctor to be objective.
Tanks are good at progress against entrenched opponents. They were invented for that.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f6/British_Mark_I_male_tank_Somme_25_September_1916.jpg/1280px-British_Mark_I_male_tank_Somme_25_September_1916.jpg)
Trench warfare can go on for years with little progress by either side. That's not too controversial, is it? Blitzkrieg means a shorter war with fewer civilian deaths. Russia would have to negotiate with words backed by immediate action, the only negotiation that could matter.
The Ukrainians will agree not to fire on Russians leaving the country. The Russians will agree to leave primarily by leaving. Papers will be signed, too.
It will be up to the US to keep Russia from total collapse to the extent any outside power can. Russia may collapse itself beyond any help, something that preoccupies US planners. They want Russia to survive defeat.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 25, 2023, 08:21:26 AMIf doctors were neutral they would say you may have cancer or you may not and if you have cancer, any treatment might cure you or then they might not. You don't want such doctors. You want your doctor to be objective.
That's not what being neutral means.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on January 25, 2023, 11:05:26 AMThat's not what being neutral means.
Agreed. This particular linguistic byway doesn't look like it's going to be entertaining...
Time's Puppet of the Year speaking to the National Association of State Chambers of Commerce gathering, which was held in Boca Raton this year. The good stuff starts at around five minutes in. Nice to hear BlackRock, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs mentioned by name. They like it too:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnQJ3HFWAA8RnqZ?format=jpg&name=large)
Zelensky is a very brave puppet.
(https://gifdb.com/images/high/monkey-puppet-i-m-a-super-hero-dzmwboy5j7kgajj7.gif)
There's one wrinkle on the German tank story. The Germans and several other NATO countries have cheaped out on maintenance and many of these tanks are in poor shape. It's within the realm of possibility that a factor in German reluctance to send them is sheer embarrassment at having their naughtiness exposed.
So much for the hypothesized threat to Russia posed by an imminent NATO invasion. I think you'd have a hard time convincing a genuine no shit Russian general that NATO tanks would be driven to Moscow direct from long term storage depots. That's TuckerPutinist level stuff. Big Brains are better than that.
Rebuilding Ukraine will generate wealth the same way rebuilding the US does when we do it. That's how economies grow, when they're built.
The Uke media is reporting on the anti-corruption actions by Zelensky. It's outward facing, so I'm meant to see it, but that's OK.
Zelensky wants foreign investment to rebuild his country. Fighting corruption seems like a good idea considering. The US probably didn't need to suggest how these are linked, though it wouldn't surprise me if the subject came up.
Here's how I'd do it. I'd say to His Puppethood "You know the TuckerPutinists are salivating at the chance to sink you. I think you better get ready for that. Do it! Do it now!!".
He probably decided fighting corruption was a good idea on his own. He's one smart Puppet.
(https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
Quote from: drogulus on January 26, 2023, 08:30:45 AMHe probably decided fighting corruption was a good idea on his own. He's one smart Puppet
Biden cannot like the puppet's being smart. Putin wouldn't stand for a smart puppet!
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 26, 2023, 09:10:31 AMBiden cannot like the puppet's being smart. Putin wouldn't stand for a smart puppet!
He thinks he's a little boy. No tanks for you!
(https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/fb2/1db/5714f3f314a3c8ce1795a858033729baa1-06-soup-nazi.2x.h473.w710.jpg)
Watch the skies.
(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107184290-1674722258525-gettyimages-1244056239-AFP_32LN4B8.jpeg?v=1674741112&w=740&h=416&ffmt=webp&vtcrop=y)
The world is awash in F-16s. The Netherlands wants to send some of theirs to Ukraine. After a suitably pointless delay (we have to get used to the idea, right?), it will probably happen.
It's a good plane, and though it's a little bit ancient, it's been modernized to use a variety of most excellent air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions.
The word is training will begin soon. The nonword is training in the US has been going on for months.
Quote from: drogulus on January 26, 2023, 08:30:45 AMThe Uke media is reporting on the anti-corruption actions by Zelensky. It's outward facing, so I'm meant to see it, but that's OK.
Zelensky wants foreign investment to rebuild his country. Fighting corruption seems like a good idea considering. The US probably didn't need to suggest how these are linked, though it wouldn't surprise me if the subject came up.
Here's how I'd do it. I'd say to His Puppethood "You know the TuckerPutinists are salivating at the chance to sink you. I think you better get ready for that. Do it! Do it now!!".
He probably decided fighting corruption was a good idea on his own. He's one smart Puppet. (https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/cheesy.gif)
Given that fighting corruption was a key theme of his TV show aired in 2015, it's not a new idea for him.
Quote from: drogulus on January 26, 2023, 11:29:22 AMWatch the skies.
(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107184290-1674722258525-gettyimages-1244056239-AFP_32LN4B8.jpeg?v=1674741112&w=740&h=416&ffmt=webp&vtcrop=y)
The world is awash in F-16s. The Netherlands wants to send some of theirs to Ukraine. After a suitably pointless delay (we have to get used to the idea, right?), it will probably happen.
It's a good plane, and though it's a little bit ancient, it's been modernized to use a variety of most excellent air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions.
The word is training will begin soon. The nonword is training in the US has been going on for months.
Preliminary training in the A-10 has also been going on for a while, on a small scale. But the Falcons will probably get there first, and even if the Warthogs are approved for delivery it will presumedly be in smaller numbers.
Quote from: drogulus on January 26, 2023, 11:29:22 AMThe world is awash in F-16s. The Netherlands wants to send some of theirs to Ukraine. After a suitably pointless delay (we have to get used to the idea, right?), it will probably happen.
It's a good plane, and though it's a little bit ancient, it's been modernized to use a variety of most excellent air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions.
The word is training will begin soon. The nonword is training in the US has been going on for months.
The Netherlands is one of the first countries were they were scheduled to be replaced, so they are basically superfluous anyway.
Hope to Ukranians can still get some good milage out of them. These are aircrafts that were on active duty, so fortunately no need for concerns about maintenance. Also read about these trainings in the US starting months ago. So these planes could over Ukraine pretty soon!
If Hungary keeps its word it will ratify Sweden's and Finland's NATO memberships next month. That leaves Turkey. The relationship between Sweden and Turkey is really cold at the moment (just one example of the insanity of the World today) and Turkey is saying they won't accept Sweden into NATO. The problems between Turkey and Finland are much smaller, but the plan was for Sweden and Finland to join together. That's good for both countries. Since 28 NATO countries have ratified ages ago, the situation has become very frustrating and now there are talks (in Finnish media) of the possibility for the Finland to join separately first and then Sweden later when Turkey allows it. All of this can be Turkish domestic politics and it is possible things get better after the elections. What have we Finns done to earn this crap? How is Estonia worthy of NATO membership and protection of articla 5, but Finland isn't? If being next to Russia is Finland's own problem, shouldn't it be Estonia's own problem too? Finland fulfils the 2 % NATO requirement unlike many NATO countries and like the 28 NATO countries say, Sweden and Finland will bring a lot to NATO, but we have to wait and wait and wait because two authoritarian (NATO coutries should not be authoritarian in my opinion! Isn't NATO about protecting western freedom?) countries want to milk as much as possible with the situation.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 02:35:35 AMIf Hungary keeps its word it will ratify Sweden's and Finland's NATO memberships next month. That leaves Turkey. The relationship between Sweden and Turkey is really cold at the moment (just one example of the insanity of the World today) and Turkey is saying they won't accept Sweden into NATO. The problems between Turkey and Finland are much smaller, but the plan was for Sweden and Finland to join together... What have we Finns done to earn this crap?
Finland is a collateral victim of Swedish government's idiotic behaviour: in the name of a completely foolish and misguided notion of "freedom of conscience" they granted official permit to a lunatic lawyer to burn the Quran in front of the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm, all the while claiming that they did not approve of what he did. And what has this display of "freedom of conscience" achieved, other than enraging an already reluctant Erdogan and making him potsponing
sine die any negotiations on the ratification? What idiocy! Either Sweden's most pressing national interest is to join NATO asap, in which case any anti-Turkish behavior must be not only not given official permission, but be crushed mercilessly (at least for a while) or Sweden's most pressing national interest is to safeguard the freedom of conscience no matter how foolish and damaging to Sweden's relationship with Turkey, in which case they can kiss NATO good-bye. The wisest thing for Finland right now is to negotiate a dissociation from Sweden and a separate ratification.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 03:10:13 AMFinland is a collateral victim of Swedish government's idiotic behaviour: in the name of a completely foolish and misguided notion of "freedom of conscience" they granted official permit to a lunatic lawyer to burn the Quran in front of the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm, all the while claiming that they did not approve of what he did. And what has this display of "freedom of conscience" achieved, other than enraging an already reluctant Erdogan and making him potsponing sine die any negotiations on the ratification? What idiocy! Either Sweden's most pressing national interest is to join NATO asap, in which case any anti-Turkish behavior must be not only not given official permission, but be crushed mercilessly (at least for a while) or Sweden's most pressing national interest is to safeguard the freedom of conscience no matter how foolish and damaging to Sweden's relationship with Turkey, in which case they can kiss NATO good-bye. The wisest thing for Finland right now is to negotiate a dissociation from Sweden and a separate ratification.
Well, Putin has won then. He wants to kill freedom in the World. Here in the Nordic countries freedom and human rigths are taken seriously. It is a really diffucult situation for us. That's why it is so frustrating.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 03:24:59 AMWell, Putin has won then. He wants to kill freedom in the World.
Yeah, sure, just like Saddam Hussein and Osama bin-Laden did before him. They too hated our freedoms and our way of life, right?
QuoteHere in the Nordic countries freedom and human rigths are taken seriously. It is a really diffucult situation for us. That's why it is so frustrating.
If you believe that the freedom to burn a holy book in front of the embassy of a nation which adheres to that religion and from which you seek ratification of your access to NATO is well worth defending and preserving, even at the risk of not joining NATO any time soon, perhaps ever, then be my guest. In my book it's called sheer lunacy. And I hasten to add that I'm not referring to you or to Finland, I'm referring to the Swedish government.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 03:32:54 AMYeah, sure, just like Saddam Hussein and Osama bin-Laden did before him. They too hated our freedoms and our way of life, right?
Oh, yes, they most certainly did. It terrified and intimidated. And remember, you were and are either with us or with them. George W Bush said so. A goodly number of posters on this board evidently adhere to that ironclad logic.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 03:32:54 AMIf you believe that the freedom to burn a holy book in front of the embassy of a nation which adheres to that religion and from which you seek ratification of your access to NATO is well worth defending and preserving
This freedom must be preserved. Well, at least in America. Europe has always been wobbly on free speech.
Free speech is great. Thoughtful speech is greater. Responsible speech is the greatest.
If anyone really believes that protecting the free speech of this bloke
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmus_Paludan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmus_Paludan)
is worth jeopardizing Sweden's accession to NATO, then I'm speechless. (pun)
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 04:12:55 AMFree speech is great. Thoughtful speech is greater. Responsible speech is the greatest.
False distinctions that necessarily lead to censorship. Censorship is worst of all when it comes to speech.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 04:12:55 AMIf anyone really believes that protecting the free speech of this bloke
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmus_Paludan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmus_Paludan)
is worth jeopardizing Sweden's accession to NATO, then I'm speechless. (pun)
His political speech should be protected. Again, Europeans are wobbly on free speech.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 03:32:54 AMYeah, sure, just like Saddam Hussein and Osama bin-Laden did before him. They too hated our freedoms and our way of life, right?
As if Putin was as easy to take out.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 03:32:54 AMIf you believe that the freedom to burn a holy book in front of the embassy of a nation which adheres to that religion and from which you seek ratification of your access to NATO is well worth defending and preserving, even at the risk of not joining NATO any time soon, perhaps ever, then be my guest. In my book it's called sheer lunacy. And I hasten to add that I'm not referring to you or to Finland, I'm referring to the Swedish government.
I don't defend burning holy books. It is idiotic, but isn't it funny how it takes 30 NATO countries to accept Sweden and Finland to NATO, but only one lunatic to ruin it all? We do have lunatics in Finland too, every country has them especially in these insane times of social media driven hatred. Any one of them may burn a Quran any day. I can only hope it doesn't happen. The security of whole countries has become an issue that depends on crazy individuals and sane people can do almost nothing about it.
Not giving official permission to an idiot to burn the Quran in front of the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm is not censorship. It's common sense. He would have probably done it anyway but the Swedish government could have rightly claimed that they did not assent and could have even fined him for disobeying a governmental interdiction, thus showing a modicum of good will towards a foreign government whose approval to join NATO they want to secure.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 04:35:00 AMI don't defend burning holy books. It is idiotic, but isn't it funny how it takes 30 NATO countries to accept Sweden and Finland to NATO, but only one lunatic to ruin it all?
Once again: blame it on a foolish and misguided notion of "freedom of speech".
QuoteThe security of whole countries has become an issue that depends on crazy individuals and sane people can do almost nothing about it.
Sane governments can. The Swedish government is not a sane one.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 04:35:02 AMNot giving official permission to an idiot to burn the Quran in front of the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm is not censorship. It's common sense.
It absolutely is censorship. Thankfully, in the US we enjoy all manner of goofy, irrelevant, and ineffectual forms of protest. We can burn books. We can burn flags. We can burn books and flags sure to upset folks. That's sort of the point of such political speech. We need more of that sort of thing.
Fortunately, SCOTUS has established useful case law regarding speech that, while it does not quite go far enough or as far as Oregon case law, ensures that I don't have to worry too much about reactionary anti-free speech zealots suppressing speech too terribly much.
Europeans are wobbly on free speech.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 04:12:55 AMFree speech is great. Thoughtful speech is greater. Responsible speech is the greatest.
If anyone really believes that protecting the free speech of this bloke
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmus_Paludan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmus_Paludan)
is worth jeopardizing Sweden's accession to NATO, then I'm speechless. (pun)
If you don't defend everyone's right to speak, no matter how much you disagree with them, you don't believe in freedom of speech. Freedom of speech is very heavy principle. The US has the best freedom of speech in the World as far as I know (I give credit when credit is due), but most European countries are not far behind. Americans have the right to burn their flag. We Finns do not have that right. I could be fined if I burned the flag of Finland. Fortunately I don't even want to burn it. I love my country. So, we Europeans have some restriction here and there compared to Americans, but people in general accept those restrictions and seen them justified.
There are a lot of people in Sweden who do not want Sweden to join NATO even if majority of Swedish people want that. Even in Finland have people against NATO (20 % or so).
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 03:32:54 AMIf you believe that the freedom to burn a holy book in front of the embassy of a nation which adheres to that religion and from which you seek ratification of your access to NATO is well worth defending and preserving, even at the risk of not joining NATO any time soon, perhaps ever, then be my guest. In my book it's called sheer lunacy. ...
If Turkey refuses Swedish admission NATO to on account of this incidence, then it is merely spin to obscure other motives.
I'm favor of virtually unlimited free speech even, (or maybe especially), when it offends religious sensibilities. Apologies in advance ...
I regard religion, (at least the formal/organized variety), as an "opiate of the proletariat", (to borrow phrase from Marx). Burning religious text or mocking prophets/messiahs is
fundamentally a good thing if often not the
practical/expedient thing to do.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 27, 2023, 05:32:45 AMIf Turkey refuses Swedish admission NATO to on account of this incidence, then it is merely excuse to obscure other motives.
Whatever works. Go Recep!
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 04:57:35 AMIf you don't defend everyone's right to speak, no matter how much you disagree with them, you don't believe in freedom of speech
I defend everyone's right to free speech as long as it does not infringe upon the rights and freedoms of other people and doesn't impact their life, liberty and property. I do not defend anyone's right to say or print that "Jews are a danger to this country and must be eliminated" or "Blacks are inferior to Whites and must be put to inferior work". I do not defend anyone's right to cry "Fire!" in a crowded theater. I do not defend anyone's right to burn the Quran in front of a Muslim-nation embassy. There are limits to freedom of speech which are dictated by reason and common sense and if an individual is unable or unwilling to keep their "speech" within those limits then it's government's duty to intervene, especially when said freedom of speech goes directly contrary to the nation's strategic goals.
Of course, all the above applies strictly to democratically-elected governments in a rule-of-law state.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 27, 2023, 05:32:45 AMIf Turkey refuses Swedish admission NATO to on account of this incidence, then it is merely spin to obscure other motives.
There are other motives too, but this incident has certainly not helped Sweden's cause in the least, on the contrary, it worsened it considerably. Erdogan is right to be enraged: if in the middle of some very difficult negotiations the Swedish government is unable or unwilling to show even a modicum of goodwill towards Turkey's concerns, then what guarantees can he have that they have any goodwill towards Turkey at all?
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 05:50:08 AMThere are limits to freedom of speech which are dictated
Dictated is an interesting verb choice.
Perhaps you can detail how burning a Koran (or Bible, or whatever) in any way infringes on the rights of others.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 05:50:08 AMI defend everyone's right to free speech as long as it does not infringe upon the rights and freedoms of other people and doesn't impact their life, liberty and property.
That can be challenging. That's why freedom of speech varies a little bit from country to country.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 05:50:08 AMI do not defend anyone's right to say or print that "Jews are a danger to this country and must be eliminated" or "Blacks are inferior to Whites and must be put to inferior work".
In Finland we don't have the right to say those things. In Finland people have been convicted in court to pay fines for saying things like that. The crime is "Agitation against a group of people." If I say those things on the street loudly so that other people hear it, I don't think I go to court for it, because I am a "nobody". People will just look at me condemning me for saying disgusting things, but if a well-known person/person of high stature uses his/her influence writing these things online for thousands of people to see, the police/prosecutor will react. Some far-right politicians in Finland have gone to the court for saying questionable things about refugees from islamic countries for example. Most Finns think these restrictions to the freedom of speech are important part of a good functioning society and removing them could reduce freedom, because certain groups of people couldn't live free of fear.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 05:50:08 AMI do not defend anyone's right to cry "Fire!" in a crowded theater.
That's actually illegal in the US as far as I know. :D
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 05:50:08 AMI do not defend anyone's right to burn the Quran in front of a Muslim-nation embassy. There are limits to freedom of speech which are dictated by reason and common sense and if an individual is unable or unwilling to keep their "speech" within those limits then it's government's duty to intervene, especially when said freedom of speech goes directly contrary to the nation's strategic goals.
Sweden is a secular Christian country. Why would they ban burning the Quran? Should they ban burning any book, because it might be the holy book for a group of people in Argentina? Holy books are burned BECAUSE it causes outrage. If Turkish people didn't care what books are burned in Sweden, nobody in Sweden would bother burning them. How much are people entitled to not be offended?
Entering NATO has been the strategic goal of Sweden for less than a year. The laws, culture, convention, practises, moral views etc. don't change just like that. Turkey greenlighted the NATO memberships at first, but suddenly started to milk with it. 2022, the year of dramatic surprises...
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 06:43:40 AMHoly books are burned BECAUSE it causes outrage.
As he burned the book specifically to outrage Turkey, how can Sweden complain that Turkey was outraged? They got what they asked for.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 27, 2023, 06:51:24 AMAs he burned the book specifically to outrage Turkey, how can Sweden complain that Turkey was outraged? They got what they asked for.
One book burner doesn't represent Sweden. Sweden didn't officially decide to burn anything. It was an individual acting alone.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 05:56:11 AMErdogan is right to be enraged: if in the middle of some very difficult negotiations the Swedish government is unable or unwilling to show even a modicum of goodwill towards Turkey's concerns, then what guarantees can he have that they have any goodwill towards Turkey at all?
No, his rage isn't right. A man insulted a belief, something he has a right to do, the same right I have when I burn down beliefs right here all the time.
Personally I think it's a mistake to emulate the beliefists by burning books. One shouldn't descend to their level. The asshole who did that shouldn't be applauded, just permitted to exercise his right to assholery.
I suppose it's progress of a sort when one beliefist protects an enemy beliefist instead of gloating at his misfortune in the traditional way.
If I had a book anyone could burn it. I don't see any belief I might hold as vulnerable like that. To say a belief is so precious and easily bruised is pretty close to saying it's only "believed in", not believed.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 07:00:29 AMOne book burner doesn't represent Sweden. Sweden didn't officially decide to burn anything. It was an individual acting alone.
I thought I understood you to say that the lawyer was specifically given permission. Sorry if I misunderstood.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on January 27, 2023, 07:14:29 AMI thought I understood you to say that the lawyer was specifically given permission. Sorry if I misunderstood.
I don't know these things well either. "Given permission" I think in this context means "We can't stop you legally from burning that book" rather than "We want you to burn a book. Would you do it for us?"
Swedish pyromania, continued
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/sweden-s-hypocrisy-exposed-as-protest-outside-israeli-embassy-averted-64927
New from Foreign Affairs: Kennan's Warning on Ukraine (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/george-kennan-warning-on-ukraine?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=Kennan%E2%80%99s%20Warning%20on%20Ukraine&utm_content=20230127&utm_term=FA%20Today%20-%20112017)
I doubt the pro-war posters on this board will deign to read the piece, but it is worth noting that it is one of many pieces that includes documented examples of warnings about US policy and how it was perceived in Russia:
Quote from: Frank CostigliolaIn his meeting with Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Clinton did as [Strobe] Talbott suggested and pressured the Russians to accept both NATO's expansion and Moscow's participation in the Partnership for Peace, an association best understood as "NATO-lite" that was crafted to soothe Russian concerns. Talbott admitted to Clinton that "virtually all major players in Russia, all across the political spectrum, are either deeply opposed to, or at least deeply worried about, NATO expansion"...
Many analysts tend to portray the current conflict as "Putin's war," but Kennan believed that almost any strong Russian leader would eventually push back against the total separation of Ukraine...
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 05:56:11 AMThere are other motives too, but this incident has certainly not helped Sweden's cause in the least, on the contrary, it worsened it considerably. Erdogan is right to be enraged: if in the middle of some very difficult negotiations the Swedish government is unable or unwilling to show even a modicum of goodwill towards Turkey's concerns, then what guarantees can he have that they have any goodwill towards Turkey at all?
It's hard to say how pious Erdogan is personally. As populist, authoritarian-inclined leader her promotes Sunni Islam as chauvinistic rallying of his "base", mainly poorer, rural Turks.
I have no doubt that Putin isn't personally pious in the slightest degree, but he similarly promotes the Russian Orthodox Church as part of working Russian nationalism.
This cynical use of religion and patriotism are depressingly normal in the modern era. (The USA is no less immune to this reality than very many other countries.)
Quote from: Todd on January 27, 2023, 04:18:38 AMFalse distinctions that necessarily lead to censorship. Censorship is worst of all when it comes to speech.
Yeah, that's what I'd expect to hear from someone who fucks puppies.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 04:57:35 AMThe US has the best freedom of speech in the World as far as I know (I give credit when credit is due), but most European countries are not far behind.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-freedom-of-speech
Top 30 Countries with the Most Freedom of Speech/Expression (GSDI 2020):
Denmark — .95
Belgium — .87
Finland, Switzerland, Uruguay — .86
New Zealand, Portugal, Sweden — .85
France — .84
Canada, Estonia — .83
Argentina, Austria, Ireland, Norway — .82
Italy — .80
Australia, Germany, Jamaica, United Kingdom — .79
Czechia, Iceland — .78
Latvia, Netherlands, Slovakia — .77
Costa Rica, Barbados — .75
Luxembourg, Peru, United States — .74
Quote from: JBS on January 27, 2023, 07:56:07 AMSwedish pyromania, continued
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/sweden-s-hypocrisy-exposed-as-protest-outside-israeli-embassy-averted-64927
I wasn't aware of this, thank you for posting the link. Hypocrisy, indeed --- on stilts.
Quote from: SimonNZ on January 27, 2023, 09:57:51 AMhttps://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-freedom-of-speech
Top 30 Countries with the Most Freedom of Speech/Expression (GSDI 2020):
Denmark — .95
Belgium — .87
Finland, Switzerland, Uruguay — .86
New Zealand, Portugal, Sweden — .85
France — .84
Canada, Estonia — .83
Argentina, Austria, Ireland, Norway — .82
Italy — .80
Australia, Germany, Jamaica, United Kingdom — .79
Czechia, Iceland — .78
Latvia, Netherlands, Slovakia — .77
Costa Rica, Barbados — .75
Luxembourg, Peru, United States — .74
Denmark is head and shoulders above the rest. Good for them!
Quote from: Fëanor on January 27, 2023, 09:20:26 AMt's hard to say how pious Erdogan is personally.
It doesn't even matter. He is the President of Turkey, a predominantly Muslim nation. What that Paludan guy did was clearly an act of provocation directed at Turkey. The Swedish government knew very well what he was about when he asked for the permit --- and they permitted it. Offering post facto apologies smells like hypocrisy from ten miles away, and in the light of the article JBS posted, it not only smells like, it is hypocrisy. On stilts.
I'm afraid Sweden's accession to NATO will not take place anytime soon. Todd can open a bottle of champagne.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 10:10:32 AMTodd can open a bottle of champagne.
American sparkling wine, please.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 07:30:47 AMI don't know these things well either. "Given permission" I think in this context means "We can't stop you legally from burning that book" rather than "We want you to burn a book. Would you do it for us?"
Paludan specifically asked for a permit from the Swedish authorities to stage a protest in front of the Turkish Embassy --- which was granted to him. The Swedish government can't even pretend they could not have known what he was going to do, his record of such provocations is long and public.
Looks like the Swedish government has made their choices: the rights of one individual, and not a very sane one at that, are above the interest of the nation as a whole as defined by the very same government. Now they will have to live with the consequences of their choice. Finland should really seek a quick dissociation of their accession to NATO from that of Sweden.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 10:21:59 AMLooks like the Swedish government has made their choices: the rights of one individual, and not a very sane one at that, are above the interest of the nation as a whole as defined by the very same government.
The Swedish government made the correct choice, using your limited framing of the issue.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 27, 2023, 09:20:26 AMpoorer, rural Turks
Poorer, rural Turks have the same right to be represented, and have their interests protected, by the President of Turkey as the richer, urban Turks have. Their beliefs and values have been openly insulted in an act of open provocation which the Swedish government officially permitted being fully aware of what was going to happen. Erdogan is absolutely entitled to protest.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 10:21:59 AMPaludan specifically asked for a permit from the Swedish authorities to stage a protest in front of the Turkish Embassy --- which was granted to him. The Swedish government can't even pretend they could not have known what he was going to do, his record of such provocations is long and public.
Looks like the Swedish government has made their choices: the rights of one individual, and not a very sane one at that, are above the interest of the nation as a whole as defined by the very same government. Now they will have to live with the consequences of their choice. Finland should really seek a quick dissociation of their accession to NATO from that of Sweden.
They say NATO membership without Sweden is much weaker for Finland than with Sweden, because Sweden is the route for security of supply for Finland. If Russia occupies Sweden, Finland doesn't have that.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 11:24:31 AMIf Russia occupies Sweden
Which is highly unlikely.
Regarding your question above, why Estonia is already in NATO and Finland isn't --- well, first of all, Finland did not want to be in NATO until 2022; secondly, in the highly unlikely probability that Russia attacks Estonia, they are not able to defend themselves and that's why they sought and obtained accession to NATO. In the highly unlikely probability that Russia attacks Finland, the manpower and equipment of the Finnish military makes them more than able to defend themselves.
I'm beginning to wonder whether Paludan is on Putin's payroll. A better and more timely pretext could not have been offered to Erdogan for delaying/blocking NATO's expansion.
I'm also beginning to wonder whether the Swedish government is a rational and responsible one. A stupider gaffe could not have been made by a government seeking Turkey's approval to join NATO.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 11:40:11 AMWhich is highly unlikely.
Yes, highly unlikely, but nevertheless an "impossible" scenario.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 11:40:11 AMRegarding your question above, why Estonia is already in NATO and Finland isn't --- well, first of all, Finland did not want to be in NATO until 2022; secondly, in the highly unlikely probability that Russia attacks Estonia, they are not able to defend themselves and that's why they sought and obtained accession to NATO. In the highly unlikely probability that Russia attacks Finland, the manpower and equipment of the Finnish military makes them more than able to defend themselves.
My point want why Estonia joined NATO before Finland. There is no mystery about that. My point was how is Estonia NATO-worthy while according to hungary and Turkey Finland perhaps isn't. It is a question of fairness.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 11:40:11 AMI'm beginning to wonder whether Paludan is on Putin's payroll. A better and more timely pretext could not have been offered to Erdogan for delaying/blocking NATO's expansion.
Everything is possible.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 11:40:11 AMI'm also beginning to wonder whether the Swedish government is a rational and responsible one. A stupider gaffe could not have been made by a government seeking Turkey's approval to join NATO.
This is perhaps the first time in history Sweden and Finland need to listen to Turkey's wishes. Is it really a miracle if we suck at it?
Michael Weiss: A Watershed Moment for Ukraine
(https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/michael-weiss-a-watershed-moment-for-ukraine-2/)
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 11:15:50 AMPoorer, rural Turks have the same right to be represented, and have their interests protected, by the President of Turkey as the richer, urban Turks have. Their beliefs and values have been openly insulted in an act of open provocation which the Swedish government officially permitted being fully aware of what was going to happen. Erdogan is absolutely entitled to protest.
Oh, boo hoo. Superstitions are going to be insulted, so Erdogan should tell his constituents to grow up. I mean (to quote George Carlin), "What's the good of being a [quasi-autocrat] if every run-down schmuck with a two dollar prayer book can fuck up your plan!"
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 27, 2023, 01:24:30 PMOh, boo hoo. Superstitions are going to be insulted, so Erdogan should tell his constituents to grow up. I mean (to quote George Carlin), "What's the good of being a [quasi-autocrat] if every run-down schmuck with a two dollar prayer book can fuck up your plan!"
Self-unawareness and cultural chauvinim in one delightful post.
Rasmus Paludan wasn't done yet. He burned another Quran in Denmark. ???
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 03:24:59 AMHe wants to kill freedom in the World. Here in the Nordic countries freedom and human rigths are taken seriously.
What value, exactly, is there in the "freedom" to go around deliberately pissing people off by burning sacred texts?
I guess the Taliban had the freedom to blow up the Buddhas of Bamiyan by that logic.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 27, 2023, 01:24:30 PMOh, boo hoo. Superstitions are going to be insulted, so Erdogan should tell his constituents to grow up. I mean (to quote George Carlin), "What's the good of being a [quasi-autocrat] if every run-down schmuck with a two dollar prayer book can fuck up your plan!"
Ha. You just watch how some Americans react if you do something to their flag, or even fail to get involved in pledges of allegiance and the like.
EDIT: Or don't basically worship veterans. Every culture has its "superstitions".
Quote from: SimonNZ on January 27, 2023, 09:56:38 AMYeah, that's what I'd expect to hear from someone who fucks puppies.
That seems somewhat unfair, puppies are generally more discriminating.
Quote from: Madiel on January 27, 2023, 06:08:26 PMHa. You just watch how some Americans react if you do something to their flag, or even fail to get involved in pledges of allegiance and the like.
EDIT: Or don't basically worship veterans. Every culture has its "superstitions".
Most American civilians and non- citizens are clueless regarding the sacrifices made by those in the American uniform.
I am
not clueless, so when l see a trooper, sailor or airman on his/her own l'll usually try to interact, ask them where they're from, where their unit is etc. If there's time and l can afford it that day, I'll buy their lunch or Starbucks or whatever.
Military people appreciate it when a stranger goes out of their way to do this sort of thing. Try it some time. ;)
Quote from: LKB on January 27, 2023, 07:53:47 PMMost American civilians and non- citizens are clueless regarding the sacrifices made by those in the American uniform.
I am not clueless, so when l see a trooper, sailor or airman on his/her own l'll usually try to interact, ask them where they're from, where their unit is etc. If there's time and l can afford it that day, I'll buy their lunch or Starbucks or whatever.
Military people appreciate it when a stranger goes out of their way to do this sort of thing. Try it some time. ;)
While I don't doubt the sacrifices, there are some very strange and over-the-top manifestations of this appreciation at times. Which leads to things like people trying to impersonate military personnel to get all the kickbacks. As far as I'm aware this phenomenon of impersonation is unknown over here. There's no lack of respect for the military here, but it doesn't get to the point where people want to fake being in the military to get adulation. Or free lunches.
Quote from: Madiel on January 27, 2023, 08:02:05 PMWhile I don't doubt the sacrifices, there are some very strange and over-the-top manifestations of this appreciation at times. Which leads to things like people trying to impersonate military personnel to get all the kickbacks. As far as I'm aware this phenomenon of impersonation is unknown over here. There's no lack of respect for the military here, but it doesn't get to the point where people want to fake being in the military to get adulation. Or free lunches.
There is a name for this phenomenon:
Stolen Valor.
You can find uploads on YouTube concerning some of the people who've perpetrated this particular sort of fraud. I find them to be deeply pathetic, more than anything else.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 10:21:59 AMPaludan specifically asked for a permit from the Swedish authorities to stage a protest in front of the Turkish Embassy --- which was granted to him. The Swedish government can't even pretend they could not have known what he was going to do, his record of such provocations is long and public.
Once more it is clear that the interest of the Western far right and Putin are aligned:
Burning of Qur'an in Stockholm funded by journalist with Kremlin ties (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/27/burning-of-quran-in-stockholm-funded-by-journalist-with-kremlin-ties-sweden-nato-russia)
(Guardian)
QuoteLooks like the Swedish government has made their choices: the rights of one individual, and not a very sane one at that, are above the interest of the nation as a whole as defined by the very same government. Now they will have to live with the consequences of their choice. Finland should really seek a quick dissociation of their accession to NATO from that of Sweden.
It was certainly not a clever move by the Swedes to allow this, but if those are the rules? Personally I'm not to so keen of expressions or acts of hate under the guise of free speech. But is Erdogan going to punish them for being a free and open society? Obviously... as if Turkey doesn't have its extremists and stuff never gets burnt on Turkish streets... ::)
I read that Finland is considering to leave the matter be until after the Turkish elections. That seems like a very smart idea. Meanwhile Erdoğan will have other matters to worry about, like the Turkish economy.
The Swedes have stupidly shot themselves in the foot, needlessly giving Erdoğan even more excuses to stall Sweden's admission into NATO.
That being said, the fact is Erdoğan would have continued stalling in any event. As long as both Putin and himself remain in power, chances of Sweden being admitted into the Alliance will remain zero. If Sweden could give him the Moon with all the trimmings, it would make no difference.
Quote from: Madiel on January 27, 2023, 06:07:11 PMWhat value, exactly, is there in the "freedom" to go around deliberately pissing people off by burning sacred texts?
I guess the Taliban had the freedom to blow up the Buddhas of Bamiyan by that logic.
There is hardly any value of it, nor is it indended that people do it. It is a consequence of freedom.
Buddhas of Bamiyan were not property of Taliban. The Holy books are property of those who burn them.
Quote from: Que on January 27, 2023, 11:53:18 PMI read that Finland is considering to leave the matter be until after the Turkish elections. That seems like a very smart idea. Meanwhile Erdoğan will have other matters to worry about, like the Turkish economy.
What else can we do? At this point Turkey isn't even willing to negotiate. I'm hoping we at least get the ratifications from Hungrary and then we can tackle the big problem.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 28, 2023, 01:45:45 AMWhat else can we do? At this point Turkey isn't even willing to negotiate. I'm hoping we at least get the ratifications from Hungrary and then we can tackle the big problem.
Don't worry! At some point in time Erdoğan will need the West more than vice versa. Untill then the Russian army is in no condition to pose any serious threat, thanks to the Ukrainians.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 28, 2023, 01:30:35 AMThe Holy books are property of those who burn them.
Incorrect. The copies of those books are. This does not provide ownership of the contents.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 27, 2023, 03:17:53 PMRasmus Paludan wasn't done yet. He burned another Quran in Denmark. ???
The guy is completely nuts. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being short/stabbed to death by a fanatical Muslim.
Whatever we might think of Erdogan in general, his demands with respect to Sweden and Finland are not unreasonable. EU has put PKK on the list of terrorist organizations, Sweden and Finland are EU members, therefore they should stop being safe havens for PKK and put an end to their activity on Swedish and Finnish territory. I don't see anything objectionable in that.
Quote from: Madiel on January 28, 2023, 03:27:01 AMIncorrect. The copies of those books are. This does not provide ownership of the contents.
Are you saying I am not allowed to destroy my STAR WARS blu-rays, because Disney owns the copyrights? ???
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 03:51:59 AMWhatever we might think of Erdogan in general, his demands with respect to Sweden and Finland are not unreasonable. EU has put PKK on the list of terrorist organizations, Sweden and Finland are EU members, therefore they should stop being safe havens for PKK and put an end to their activity on Swedish and Finnish territory. I don't see anything objectionable in that.
I know almost nothing about this issue. Is every single kurd a member of PKK? Does being a kurd mean you are automatically a terrorist in the US and EU? Are Sweden and Finland really safe havens for PKK? What activity does PKK have in Sweden and Finland? I am totally unaware of any such activity in Finland.
Most of all, has Turkey expressed similar demands to every other NATO country it has ratified?
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 11:15:50 AMPoorer, rural Turks have the same right to be represented, and have their interests protected, by the President of Turkey as the richer, urban Turks have. Their beliefs and values have been openly insulted in an act of open provocation which the Swedish government officially permitted being fully aware of what was going to happen. Erdogan is absolutely entitled to protest.
BTW, I wasn't singling out rural
Turks versus rural people in general. Pretty much anywhere in the world rural folks are more conservative and Right-leaning. Of course they have the right to have their views represented by elected politicians.
Whether rural folks'
actual interests are best served by the politicians they elect is another matter ... but then that's a problem we all have.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 28, 2023, 01:30:35 AMThe Holy books are property of those who burn them.
Irrelevant. Burning the Quran in front of a Turkish Embassy is a deliberately provocative act. If you ask me, it has nothing to do with free speech and everything to do with hate speech.
Besides, how do you call the fact that the Swedish authorities, who claimed they could not have curtailed Paludan's right to burn the Quran, have not permitted the burning of Torah in front of the Israeli Embassy, thus curtailing the right of whoever wanted to burn the Torah? I call it at best double satndards and at worst disgusting hypocrisy.
Quote from: Florestan on January 27, 2023, 05:56:11 AMThere are other motives too, but this incident has certainly not helped Sweden's cause in the least, on the contrary, it worsened it considerably. Erdogan is right to be enraged: if in the middle of some very difficult negotiations the Swedish government is unable or unwilling to show even a modicum of goodwill towards Turkey's concerns, then what guarantees can he have that they have any goodwill towards Turkey at all?
Well I'm just a little confused by this, especially the phrase "goodwill towards Turkey". Is it ill-will that Sweden is sympathetic to Turkey's long-oppressed Kurdish minority?
Unfortunately organizations of oppressed groups tend towards terrorist activities and there are many examples,
e.g. Hamas. To be clear
I do not support Terrorist activities the kill civilians. At the same time those organization often have the support of a large portion of the oppressed population.
Pragmatically I think Sweden ought to apologize to Turkey & Turkish Muslims for the Qur'an burning. That is, without seeming to deny the right of free speech or protest, including to criticize a specific religion or religions general. However it's certainly
impolite to deliberately or provocatively offend the piety of religious people.
Pragmatically, because the PKK is commonly acknowledged to be a terrorist organization in the international sphere, Sweden probably ought to agree to curtail the activity of the PKK within it's borders.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 04:47:15 AMIrrelevant. Burning the Quran in front of a Turkish Embassy is a deliberately provocative act. If you ask me, it has nothing to do with free speech and everything to do with hate speech.
Besides, how do you call the fact that the Swedish authorities, who claimed they could not have curtailed Paludan's right to burn the Quran, have not permitted the burning of Torah in front of the Israeli Embassy, thus curtailing the right of whoever wanted to burn the Torah? I call it at best double satndards and at worst disgusting hypocrisy.
I agree that's hypocritical -- someone ought to go and burn a Tanakh in from of the Israeli embassy just to put the matter to the test in the courts.
Well OK, I'm mostly kidding. However in principle I defend to right of anyone to criticize their own or anyone else's religion: it might be hate speech in a specific context but it isn't inherently so. What are we to make of the laws of a country like Pakistan were it is a capital offence to "offend" the Prophet or sully the Qur'an?
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 04:47:15 AMIrrelevant. Burning the Quran in front of a Turkish Embassy is a deliberately provocative act.
Exactly! What other reason could there be?
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 04:47:15 AMIf you ask me, it has nothing to do with free speech and everything to do with hate speech.
That is your opinion. Swedes may have differing views. They are not Romanians. Their culture and laws differ from Romania. Sweden is MUCH more secular country compared to Romania. Finland is more religious than Sweden, but not as religious as Romania.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 04:47:15 AMBesides, how do you call the fact that the Swedish authorities, who claimed they could not have curtailed Paludan's right to burn the Quran, have not permitted the burning of Torah in front of the Israeli Embassy, thus curtailing the right of whoever wanted to burn the Torah? I call it at best double satndards and at worst disgusting hypocrisy.
I didn't know about that Torah thing. I haven't followed Swedish politics. This is a rare case where Swedish politics matters to Finland. Sounds like double standards indeed. Did the laws change in between or what?
Easy for you to say what Sweden or Finland should or shouldn't do. Romania is safely in NATO and Turkey has no say on how Romania applies free speech. How would you feel if Romania was getting in NATO and getting demands from Turkey? Demands that have nothing to do with military capabilities.
Talking about hypocrisy, how about Turkey as a NATO member playing for Russia, a country that considers NATO its enemy.
From Yahoo! - though it's an article by Michael Isikoff, so hopefully it passes muster with learned media critics:
U.S. intel chief warns of 'devastating' impact of Russian missile attacks
Avril Haines said Thursday night that Moscow is making "very incremental progress" in its war on Ukraine. (https://news.yahoo.com/us-intel-chief-warns-of-devastating-impact-of-russian-missile-attacks-161313460.html)
Quote from: Michael IsikoffBut at the same time, Haines seemed to offer a more sobering view of the conflict than most Biden administration officials have shared to date. She said the "brutal" missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are taking a far bigger toll than has been publicly understood...
But she also described the war as having devolved into a "grinding conflict" where the movements are in "hundreds of meters." The frontlines, she noted, have mostly remained "relatively static" even while the Russians press an offensive in the eastern Donbas region in which they have made "very incremental progress."
Fortunately, on the economic front, BlackRock, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs stand ready to help, and Time's Puppet of the Year stands ready to
pocket the dough effectively manage their altruistic largesse.
Keep fighting.
No negotiations.
Quote from: Madiel on January 27, 2023, 06:08:26 PMHa. You just watch how some Americans react if you do something to their flag, or even fail to get involved in pledges of allegiance and the like.
EDIT: Or don't basically worship veterans. Every culture has its "superstitions".
Flag burning is legal in the US. No one is required to recite the pledge of allegiance. No one is required to worship veterans. I can burn a stack of bibles without repercussions. In fact, a local thrift store gives bibles away for free and I use those thin crispy pages as kindling in my wood stove. Have you seen the hilarious new trend of satanists delivering opening prayers at school board meetings?
Perhaps every culture has its superstitions. It's the ones willing to kill over them that concern me.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 04:47:15 AMIrrelevant. Burning the Quran in front of a Turkish Embassy is a deliberately provocative act. If you ask me, it has nothing to do with free speech and everything to do with hate speech.
It's provocative. Which is perfectly fine. Provocative speech is, or should be, protected speech.
Hate speech is a nebulous (and false) legal construct that poses significant danger to free speech everywhere relevant laws exist. If Europeans want to lustfully and emotionally embrace hate speech laws, that's fine. Fortunately, in the US, SCOTUS recently ruled unanimously in Matal on the matter, though various laws and related court rulings will wind through the system over time. I am somewhat surprised to see you embrace this concept, but it is what it is.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 06:02:24 AMI am somewhat surprised to see you embrace this concept, but it is what it is.
Burning the Quran in front of a Muslim-nation embassy clearly shows that the burner shits not only on the Muslim religion, but also on that specific Muslim nation.
Burning the Bible in front of a Christian-nation embassy clearly shows that the burner shits not only on the Christian religion, but also on that specific Christian nation.
Burning the Torah in the front of an Israeli embassy clearly shows that the burner shits not only on Judaism, but also specifically on Jews.
(That there are atheists in Muslim/Christian nations and Israel is irrelevant.)
In my book this is hate speech.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 06:21:34 AMIn my book this is hate speech.
I will merely reiterate that I am surprised to see you embrace this concept. But you have. That's fine, I get it. Free speech can and does make some people uncomfortable.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 06:26:44 AMI will merely reiterate that I am surprised to see you embrace this concept.
Hate speech is clearly embedded in European (human rights) law; Florestan is right to classify this as such.
Quote from: Christo on January 28, 2023, 06:31:33 AMHate speech is clearly embedded in European (human rights) law; Florestan is right to classify this as such.
Yes, I am aware that Europeans have embraced hate speech laws. I would expect nothing less.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 06:26:44 AMI will merely reiterate that I am surprised to see you embrace this concept. But you have. That's fine, I get it.
I specifically explicitated what my own concept of hate speech was.
Telling and/or enjoying jokes about Jews, Muslims, Roma people, Americans, Scottish people, whatever (Romanians included) etc. does not qualify as hate speech in my book.
In my book
hate speech is "speech" specifically and purposefully targeted at specifical ethnic or religious groups with the sole meaning of showing/arousing hatred against them.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 06:21:34 AMBurning the Quran in front of a Muslim-nation embassy clearly shows that the burner shits not only on the Muslim religion, but also on that specific Muslim nation.
Burning the Bible in front of a Christian-nation embassy clearly shows that the burner shits not only on the Christian religion, but also on that specific Christian nation.
Burning the Torah in the front of an Israeli embassy clearly shows that the burner shits not only on Judaism, but also specifically on Jews.
(That there are atheists in Muslim/Christian nations and Israel is irrelevant.)
In my book this is hate speech.
What does one have to burn to shit on atheists? Richard Dawkins' book The God Delusion?
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 07:17:44 AMIn my book hate speech is "speech" specifically and purposefully targeted at specifical ethnic or religious groups with the sole meaning of showing/arousing hatred against them.
OK.
Such speech should be protected.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 28, 2023, 05:09:38 AMI defend to right of anyone to criticize their own or anyone else's religion: it might be hate speech in a specific context but it isn't inherently so.
I'm an Orthodox Christian, convinced but not devout.
Do I think criticism of Orthodox Christianity is hate speech? No, I certainly don't. Be my guest, criticize (Orthodox) Christianity as much as you wish, as long as you do it in a rational manner and as long as you leave room for my own arguments to be laid on the table --- and, what is more, as long as you presume I am as much a goodwill, peaceful and reasonable human being as you are.
But--- Were you to burn an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the Romanian Embassy in Canada --- would I be wrong in assuming you shit not only on Orthodox Christianity, but also on the Romanian people which according to the latest census is 80% Orthodox Christian? And even if your personal opinion, which you are absolutely entitled to hold, would be that Orthodox Christianity sucks and the vast majority of Romanians are stupid, should the Canadian government jeopardize its excellent relationship with Romania by officially allowing you to burn a Romanian Bible in fornt of the Romanian Embassy in Ottawa?
QuoteWhat are we to make of the laws of a country like Pakistan were it is a capital offence to "offend" the Prophet or sully the Qur'an?
As a Christian in general, I can't pretend to innocence --- there were times in Europe when "offending" Christ or the Christian religion could have, and did have, ended one by being burned at stake. I can only ask you to cite one single pronouncement of Jesus Christ, as recorded in The New Testament (allowing for differences between Catholic, Orthodox and Lutheran/Protestant versions), which supports violence against non-believers.
As a Romanian Orthodox Christian, my only comment is a question: show me one single person who was sentenced to death, let alone put to death, by the Romanian Orthodox Church (it doesn't matter for what) in all its entire history.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 08:04:13 AMBut--- Were you to burn an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the Romanian Embassy in Canada --- would I be wrong in assuming you shit not only on Orthodox Christianity, but also on the Romanian people which according to the latest census is 80% Orthodox Christian? And even if your personal opinion, which you are absolutely entitled to hold, would be that Orthodox Christianity sucks and the vast majority of Romanians are stupid, should the Canadian government jeopardize its excellent relationship with Romania by officially allowing you to burn a Romanian Bible in fornt of the Romanian Embassy in Ottawa?
Are you asserting that the act of a single individual burning an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the embassy in Canada would be sufficient to jeopardize an excellent relationship between countries? If so, the relationship is not excellent. You need to work on your hypotheticals.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 08:08:18 AMAre you asserting that the act of a single individual burning an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the embassy in Canada would be sufficient to jeopardize an excellent relationship between countries? If so, the relationship is not excellent. You need to work on your hypotheticals.
In normal times, the act of a single individual burning an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the Romanian Embassy in Canada would amount to nothing, even if it be approved by the Canadian government.
But --- if Canada were seeking to join NATO, and their joinig NATO depended on Romania's approval, and Romania told Canada they should put an end to any anti-Romanian activity, and then the Canadian government would give permit to someone to burn an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the Romanian embassy in Canada in the full knowledge of what was going to happen --- then I say that the subsequent Romanian veto against Canada's accession to NATO would be fully justified.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 07:17:44 AMI specifically explicitated what my own concept of hate speech was.
Telling and/or enjoying jokes about Jews, Muslims, Roma people, Americans, Scottish people, whatever (Romanians included) etc. does not qualify as hate speech in my book.
In my book hate speech is "speech" specifically and purposefully targeted at specifical ethnic or religious groups with the sole meaning of showing/arousing hatred against them.
Yes, and I would go for an
even more strictive definition of hate speech that requires that harm be encouraged, (more or less explicitly), against the target group. Merely insulting them or even slandering them must, in the interest of free speech, not be considered hate speech.
It seems to me that burning a religious text falls outside the definition I favour.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 08:27:05 AMIn normal times, the act of a single individual burning an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the Romanian Embassy in Canada would amount to nothing, even if it be approved by the Canadian government.
But --- if Canada were seeking to join NATO, and their joinig NATO depended on Romania's approval, and Romania told Canada they should put an end to any anti-Romanian activity, and then the Canadian government would give permit to someone to burn an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the Romanian embassy in Canada in the full knowledge of what was going to happen --- then I say that the subsequent Romanian veto against Canada's accession to NATO would be fully justified.
So it's a matter of expediency: fine by me.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 08:08:18 AMAre you asserting that the act of a single individual burning an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the embassy in Canada would be sufficient to jeopardize an excellent relationship between countries? If so, the relationship is not excellent. You need to work on your hypotheticals.
I agree with you, (for once).
Specifically Turkey making a big fuss about a Qur'an burning is mostly Erdogan waving the flag to please his base and re-enforce his crypto-fascist political strategy.
In Hungary, Viktor Orbán's NATO hesitancy isn't so different in that it's part of the aggrandizement of his nationalist image and championing Hungarian autonomy.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 08:27:05 AMIn normal times, the act of a single individual burning an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the Romanian Embassy in Canada would amount to nothing, even if it be approved by the Canadian government.
But --- if Canada were seeking to join NATO, and their joinig NATO depended on Romania's approval, and Romania told Canada they should put an end to any anti-Romanian activity, and then the Canadian government would give permit to someone to burn an Orthodox Christian Bible in front of the Romanian embassy in Canada in the full knowledge of what was going to happen --- then I say that the subsequent Romanian veto against Canada's accession to NATO would be fully justified.
Your hypotheticals are detached from reality.
The diplomatic fuss between Turkey and Sweden is not really about Koran burning. That is a convenient public pretext. The most substantive public issue involves Turkey's claims of Sweden harboring political enemies of Turkey (eg, Gülenists). Another obvious motive of Erdoğan is to leverage anti-Western sentiment in his country to deflect from domestic issues, such as obscene inflation and botched economic policies across the board. There is also a strong possibility that Erdoğan sees Sweden as a threat to the Turkish arms industry. Sweden has one of the most advanced arms industries in Europe, and full integration into NATO would mean that Swedish arms would be more widely sold, potentially eating into Turkey's market share before it could grow its non-NATO market sufficiently.
Canada and Romania do not have similar issues to work through.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 28, 2023, 08:27:23 AMYes, and I would go for an even more strictive definition of hate speech that requires that harm be encouraged, (more or less explicitly), against the target group.
My point exactly.
QuoteMerely insulting them or even slandering them must, in the interest of free speech, not be considered hate speech.
I do tell and do enjoy jokes about Hungarians, Roma people, Jews, Scotttish people, Romanian people, Italians and what not.
I've always taught, and I do teach, and I am teaching, ny son that we are all human beings, no matter the color of our skin, or the language we talk, or the religion we believe/not believe in.
QuoteIt seems to me that burning a religious text falls outside the definition I favour.
The burning of a religious text is a clear, obvious and incontrovertible indication that one not only hates that particular religion, but that they do want to publicly show their hate. And if they burn it in front of an embassy of a nation whose vast majority profess that religion, then it is a clear, obvious and incontrovertible indication that one hates that nation, too.
That any nation calling themselves civilized should allow such hateful behavior to go unchecked in the name of free speech leaves me truly speechless.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 28, 2023, 08:29:37 AMit's a matter of expediency:
Politics in a nutshell.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 28, 2023, 05:11:36 AMExactly! What other reason could there be?
Again, if the organs of government sanction the provocative act, they invite a response themselves. Cannot make Sweden out to be the "victim" here.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 28, 2023, 08:39:26 AMSpecifically Turkey making a big fuss about a Qur'an burning is mostly Erdogan waving the flag to please his base and re-enforce his crypto-fascist political strategy.
See my reply #5243.
Firstly, please tell us what is wrong with Erdogan's trying to please his base.
Secondly, please tell us how is he any different from any Western Europe/Northern American politician.
Thirdly, please define crypto-fascist.
QuoteIn Hungary, Viktor Orbán's NATO hesitancy isn't so different in that it's part of the aggrandizement of his nationalist image and championing Hungarian autonomy.
By the way...
Poland, Hungary and Romania were accepted into NATO on the condition they gave up once and for all each and every territorial claims they might have had on their neighbors. Poland and Romania officially gave up any claim on Ukrainian territory, Hungary officially gave up any claim on Romanian territory.
Yet Sweden and Finland somehow feel entitled to join NATO without making the slightest compromise/concession.
Why?
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 08:41:06 AMThe diplomatic fuss between Turkey and Sweden is not really about Koran burning. That is a convenient public pretext. The most substantive public issue involves Turkey's claims of Sweden harboring political enemies of Turkey (eg, Gülenists). Another obvious motive of Erdoğan is to leverage anti-Western sentiment in his country to deflect from domestic issues, such as obscene inflation and botched economic policies across the board. There is also a strong possibility that Erdoğan sees Sweden as a threat to the Turkish arms industry. Sweden has one of the most advanced arms industries in Europe, and full integration into NATO would mean that Swedish arms would be more widely sold, potentially eating into Turkey's market share before it could grow its non-NATO market sufficiently.
I'm not disagreeing with any of the above.
All I'm saying is that all of the above were already on the table of a difficult Swedish-Turkish negotiation, which might have still yielded a compromise --- but lo and behold!, out of a sudden comes Rasmus Paludan and the Swedish government, committed to a foolish and misguided nbotion of free speech, makes an enormous blunder and offers Erdogan a good, unassailable pretext for stalling NATO's expansion. I put myself in Erdogan's shoes and say: whichever government allows, in full knowledge of what would go on, the burning of the Quran in front of the Turkish Embassy, is not a would-be trustful ally of Turkey within NATO.
Heck, he didn't ask for all Kurds to be expelled from Sweden/Finland. He only asked for Kurds with documented membership/link to PKK to be not even expelled, but be prohibited from publicly activity on Swedish and Finnish territory. How is that demand unreasonable, given that EU has put PKK on the list of terrorist organizations?
QuoteCanada and Romania do not have similar issues to work through.
They don't and I do wonder why. Do you have any explanation?
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 09:27:38 AMAll I'm saying is that
No, what you were saying was something about Canada and Romania that has no relationship to reality, and you did so in a terribly misguided defense of speech suppression.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 09:27:38 AMThey don't and I do wonder why. Do you have any explanation?
Yes, Romania is weak to the point of irrelevance and Canada is a majority owned subsidiary of the US.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 09:31:19 AMNo, what you were saying was something about Canada and Romania that has no relationship to reality, and you did so in a terribly misguided defense of speech suppression.
Time and again, my honest and sincere opening towards you is met with disdain. But then again, it's my own fault, i should really have known better by now.
QuoteYes, Romania is weak to the point of irrelevance and Canada is a majority owned subsidiary of the US.
Talk about self-unawareness and cultural chauvinism.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 09:41:29 AMTime and again, my honest and sincere opening towards you is met with disdain. But then again, it's my own fault, i should really have known better by now.
Better hypotheticals would help.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 09:41:29 AMTalk about self-unawareness and cultural chauvinism.
Since the West, broadly speaking, is (supposedly) one happy family, pointing out the relative power of its members is less cultural chauvinism than basic observation.
Perhaps you can offer a detailed, academic quality explanation of the relations between Canada and Romania, and why they are so excellent. While you are at it, perhaps you can explain how the current post-war order could exist without US power.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 09:54:01 AMPerhaps you can offer a detailed, academic quality explanation of
Perhaps you can offer a detailed, academic quality explanation of why you are such an obnoxiuous person.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 10:09:12 AMPerhaps you can offer a detailed, academic quality explanation of why you are such an obnoxiuous person.
;D
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 10:11:23 AM;D
Ladies and gentlemen,
I just made Todd reply anything other than "Incorrect."
Let's party!
(https://media.tenor.com/8RYexf34TBAAAAAC/uptrennd-1up.gif)
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 28, 2023, 11:27:07 AMSo long as my disagreement and hatred are constrained within the limits of civil discourse: live with it.
What if, as is often the case, the limits of civil discourse are trespassed? What then, pray tell? Who is entitled, if anybody, to keep one's discourse within the limits oi civility?
Quote from: 71 dB on January 28, 2023, 04:11:43 AMAre you saying I am not allowed to destroy my STAR WARS blu-rays, because Disney owns the copyrights? ???
I'm saying that you don't own Star Wars. Which would be equivalent to what you said about owning holy scriptures.
Quote from: Fëanor on January 28, 2023, 05:09:38 AMI agree that's hypocritical -- someone ought to go and burn a Tanakh in from of the Israeli embassy just to put the matter to the test in the courts.
Well OK, I'm mostly kidding. However in principle I defend to right of anyone to criticize their own or anyone else's religion: it might be hate speech in a specific context but it isn't inherently so. What are we to make of the laws of a country like Pakistan were it is a capital offence to "offend" the Prophet or sully the Qur'an?
Burning a book is not "criticism".
Edit: nor is it "speech", despite the attempts of American courts to extend this concept to the point where interpretative dance probably counts.
Quote from: BasilValentine on January 28, 2023, 06:00:58 AMFlag burning is legal in the US. No one is required to recite the pledge of allegiance. No one is required to worship veterans. I can burn a stack of bibles without repercussions. In fact, a local thrift store gives bibles away for free and I use those thin crispy pages as kindling in my wood stove. Have you seen the hilarious new trend of satanists delivering opening prayers at school board meetings?
Perhaps every culture has its superstitions. It's the ones willing to kill over them that concern me.
I wasn't talking about whether it was legal. There are plenty of things that are legal that can get you into a lot of trouble with people, rather than the law.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on January 28, 2023, 12:30:27 PMThe limits of civil discourse are that one should not feel imminently threatened, or actually be threatened.
That you are offended or your feelings are hurt: tough luck.
Should your speech involve incitement to violence, or threaten violence, or be part of an acutally violent act, then you suffer the legal consequences. Short of that, you are good to go, no matter how much my feelings may be hurt.
I don't know that it is "often the case" that the limits of civil discourse are often trespassed. I've frequently had 'eff off fag' shouted at me, but I've not often felt that this would translate into actually getting out of their car and pummelling me to the ground. I think it quite rare that even virulent speech trangresses those particular boundaries.
I agree in principle with this and your other recent posts. My one hesitation is in knowing how to address stochastic terrorism as practiced by prominent political figures, if indeed there is anything that can or should be done about it.
USA politics is a toxic cesspool. The USA allows all sorts of speech that is completely unacceptable in other countries. The two things are not unrelated.
Quote from: Madiel on January 28, 2023, 01:20:07 PMI'm saying that you don't own Star Wars. Which would be equivalent to what you said about owning holy scriptures.
If you burn
a book, you burn
one copy of book which hopefully is your property you have paid for. It is not burning the content. The "content" (intellectual property) is in possession of the copyright owner, safe and sound.. I don't own Star Wars, but I am allowed to destroy the Blu-rays I have bought and paid for if I want (I don't). I am also allowed to burn the books I own. Then again, I don't own any "holy books."
I haven't talked about owning holy scriptures. Who "owns" the rights to holy books anyway? Who has the right to print copies of them and sell them? This is all about BURNING BOOKS YOU OWN.
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 10:28:58 AMLadies and gentlemen,
I just made Todd reply anything other than "Incorrect."
Let's party!
(https://media.tenor.com/8RYexf34TBAAAAAC/uptrennd-1up.gif)
Accidents happen, I'm sure he'll recover soon enough.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 08:41:06 AMYour hypotheticals are detached from reality.
The diplomatic fuss between Turkey and Sweden is not really about Koran burning. That is a convenient public pretext. The most substantive public issue involves Turkey's claims of Sweden harboring political enemies of Turkey (eg, Gülenists). Another obvious motive of Erdoğan is to leverage anti-Western sentiment in his country to deflect from domestic issues, such as obscene inflation and botched economic policies across the board. There is also a strong possibility that Erdoğan sees Sweden as a threat to the Turkish arms industry. Sweden has one of the most advanced arms industries in Europe, and full integration into NATO would mean that Swedish arms would be more widely sold, potentially eating into Turkey's market share before it could grow its non-NATO market sufficiently.
Canada and Romania do not have similar issues to work through.
First sentence: Incorrect.
The rest of the post is accurate.
Quote from: Madiel on January 28, 2023, 01:22:38 PMI wasn't talking about whether it was legal. There are plenty of things that are legal that can get you into a lot of trouble with people, rather than the law.
Here you've struck upon the greatest flaw of our species:
Emotion trump's
everything.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 28, 2023, 03:29:08 PMIf you burn a book, you burn one copy of book which hopefully is your property you have paid for. It is not burning the content. The "content" (intellectual property) is in possession of the copyright owner, safe and sound.. I don't own Star Wars, but I am allowed to destroy the Blu-rays I have bought and paid for if I want (I don't). I am also allowed to burn the books I own. Then again, I don't own any "holy books."
I haven't talked about owning holy scriptures. Who "owns" the rights to holy books anyway? Who has the right to print copies of them and sell them? This is all about BURNING BOOKS YOU OWN.
Oh please. You know as well as I do that burning a copy of the Quran in public is not about disposing of one personal copy. And you didn't say he burnt a book. Maybe you should go back and look at the actual phrasing you used, because neither you nor anyone else who was the audience for the stunt interpreted it as being about burning the pages of that one physical object.
If you want to trash your Star Wars DVD at home, fine. But don't try to tell me that's no different to taking your DVD that you own to the car park in front of Lucasfilm headquarters and driving over it with a tractor, just because the physical result is the same. Such a claim is technically correct and yet also completely disingenuous.
I'm done with the book burning thing.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 28, 2023, 04:41:19 PMI'm done with the book burning thing.
Just so long as you grasp that when and where you perform an action makes a difference.
As a gay man I'm grateful I have the legal right to have sex with another man. But I understand that, like everyone else who is allowed to have sex, this does not mean there are no restrictions about when and where I have sex.
Feel free to burn books that you own in the privacy of your own home.
Quote from: 71 dB on January 28, 2023, 04:41:19 PMI'm done with the book burning thing.
And so are we.... 8)
That's a lot of digression over a convenient pretext for Erdoğan. As soon as any dicussion veers off to the US constitution and jurisprudence of the US Supreme Court, that's a huge red flag. :D
Meanwhile on the battle field.... A stalemate that neither side is able to break. Both sides are digged in, with the ground too soft due to the mild winter to move heavy equipment. The Russians have a large amount of conscripts as canon fodder at their disposal, but the Ukrainians have sufficient precision artillery to stop them.
Who is going to move first with an attempted offensive? Hopefully and probably the Russians... They are the ones with an political agenda and have to prove their invincibility. Sounds like a perfect recipe for disaster - for the Russians....
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JANUARY 28, 2023 (https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-28-2023)
Quote- Russian forces are attempting to prevent Ukraine from regaining the initiative possibly ahead of a planned decisive Russian offensive in Donbas.
- Russian forces likely lack the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation while fixing Ukrainian forces in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
- The Russian military leadership may once again be planning an offensive operation based on erroneous assumptions about the Russian military's capabilities
Kyiv warns of Russian anniversary offensive (https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-kyiv-warns-of-russian-anniversary-offensive/a-64545653)
There are reports that Putin is dragging military equipment to Ukraine from all over Russia. He is going to try before the new weapons for Ukraine arrive... and hopefully fail miserably...
Quote from: Florestan on January 28, 2023, 08:42:49 AM...
The burning of a religious text is a clear, obvious and incontrovertible indication that one not only hates that particular religion, but that they do want to publicly show their hate. And if they burn it in front of an embassy of a nation whose vast majority profess that religion, then it is a clear, obvious and incontrovertible indication that one hates that nation, too.
That any nation calling themselves civilized should allow such hateful behavior to go unchecked in the name of free speech leaves me truly speechless.
I think we should be free to hate religion -- even selectively, though I personally hate all religions about equally.
Religious text burning here in Canada is less likely -- we're too polite.
Quote from: Todd on January 28, 2023, 08:41:06 AMThe diplomatic fuss between Turkey and Sweden is not really about Koran burning. That is a convenient public pretext. The most substantive public issue involves Turkey's claims of Sweden harboring political enemies of Turkey (eg, Gülenists). Another obvious motive of Erdoğan is to leverage anti-Western sentiment in his country to deflect from domestic issues, such as obscene inflation and botched economic policies across the board. There is also a strong possibility that Erdoğan sees Sweden as a threat to the Turkish arms industry. Sweden has one of the most advanced arms industries in Europe, and full integration into NATO would mean that Swedish arms would be more widely sold, potentially eating into Turkey's market share before it could grow its non-NATO market sufficiently.
Canada and Romania do not have similar issues to work through.
Seems I'm constrained to agree with you again.
Though I don't know enough about Sweden's and Turkey's arms industries to comment on the last point -- other than I know that they are significant in both case.)
Quote from: Fëanor on January 29, 2023, 03:47:20 AMI think we should be free to hate religion -- even selectively, though I personally hate all religions about equally.
Religious text burning here in Canada is less likely -- we're too polite.
Just in case my previous message got lost in translation: let's get back on topic.
Reuters:
DUBAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - A loud explosion struck a military industry factory near the central Iranian city of Isfahan overnight in what Tehran said on Sunday was a drone strike by unidentified attackers.There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the blast, which came amid tension with the West over Tehran's nuclear activity and supply of arms for Russia's war in Ukraine, as well as months of anti-government demonstrations at home.
Iran's foreign minister said the "cowardly" attack was aimed at creating "insecurity" in Iran. The Defence Ministry said the explosion caused only minor damage and no casualties. The extent of the damage could not be independently confirmed.
[...]
Separately, IRNA reported early on Sunday a massive fire at a motor oil factory in an industrial zone near the northwestern city of Tabriz. It gave no information about the cause of that blaze.
The Islamic Republic has in the past accused arch-enemy Israel of planning attacks using agents inside Iranian territory. In July, Tehran said it had arrested a sabotage team made up of Kurdish militants working for Israel who planned to blow up a "sensitive" defence industry centre in Isfahan.
[...]
In Ukraine, which accuses Iran of supplying hundreds of drones to Russia to attack civilian targets in Ukrainian cities far from the front, a senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy linked the incident directly to the war there. "War logic is inexorable & murderous. It bills the authors & accomplices strictly," Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted. "Explosive night in Iran - drone & missile production, oil refineries. Did warn you."
Another case where people just say things openly and honestly, from a couple weeks ago. The fun bit comes from Evelyn Farkas. For context, Ms Farkas is the Executive Director of the McCain Institute. Part of her work focuses on human rights. (You can't make this stuff up.) She was an Obama Administration functionary. The relevant bit starts around twenty-five minutes in. The revealing bit, in response to a question about regimes fit to be changed is:
Quote from: Evelyn FarkasWell, obviously a good one would be Russia, but I don't think they're on the precipice there. I think things have to get worse economically and there have to be many more body bags, and frankly, military losses before there's a change in the government in Moscow.
This illustrates a few points. First, exactly contrary to fantastical thinking by some people, women are just as bloodthirsty as men. Second, think tanks are filled to the brim with really rather biased folks who offer advice and analysis of questionable value. Third, the ultimate goal held by many is no secret, escalation be damned. Oh yes, and fourth, the war isn't going against Russia in quite the manner that triumphalists and dreamers proclaim. That's strikingly similar to Ms Haines' recent comments. Pro-war sorts will continue to believe otherwise.
It should also be noted that the Council on Foreign Relations prides itself on being neutral. It really does. It takes no stance and offers a platform for opinions. Its most relevant outlet is Foreign Affairs. The President of the Council is Richard Haass. Mr Haass served in the Reagan, Bush, and Bush Administrations. He did formulate the useful and
fun minimalist/maximalist framework for assessing US foreign policy - Dubya was maximalist; Obama was minimalist. He presents his arguments in a reasonable manner, though he also advocates for a radical policy in terms of US defense spending. While some folks suggest increasing the budget by $25 or $50 billion per year, Mr Haass advocates for increasing it by 1% of GDP per year, or about $230 billion per year. Even some staunch institutionalists crave nothing less than the enhanced militarization of US foreign policy, the continued aggressive and reckless expansion of NATO, and permanent war. Because Russia! And soon: Because China!
Russia also uses religion to support foreign policy objectives. Putin is "offended" by the atheistic West.
The overall goals in war are no secret. It's not very bloodthirsty to know about them.
I could be ultraPutinist and filled with peace juice and still opine that many more Russians will have to die before Putin negotiates.
Here's a bloodthirsty report, as it contains war facts and analysis. Consider this a trigger warning.
Since it has been determined on this forum that think tanks are good, reliable, unbiased sources of useful information, it may be time to consider some of what the RAND Corporation has published in the last several years regarding Russia. RAND itself states it offers objective analysis and effective solutions, so it can be trusted. In May 2019, it published a book called
Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground. Below are two items of note. First is a paragraph from the book. Second is a brief that just goes ahead and describes overall foreign policy objectives in plain language.
(https://www.thepostil.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/RAND-2019-How-to-destablize-Russia.jpg)
Overextending and Unbalancing Russia Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options (https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html)
Democracy and freedom and the welfare of Ukrainian civilians do not figure prominently. Or at all. Some key bullet points are useful. See if you can recognize them.
- Expanding U.S. energy production
- Imposing deeper trade and financial sanctions
- Increasing Europe's ability to import gas from suppliers other than Russia
- Providing lethal aid to Ukraine
- Undermining Russia's image abroad
- The United States might goad Russia into a costly arms race by breaking out of the nuclear arms control regime [The US pulled out of the INF Treaty in August 2019]
The RAND Corporation's ideas and motives are pure. Same with the United States.
You seem to think that is a list of bad things. The only bad thing on it is increasing Azeri-Armenian tensions--and that has happened, with no help from the US that I know of, but apparently a good deal of help from Turkey.
And getting rid of Lukashenko would have been a very good thing, for Belarussians and for Ukrainians.
But what is good for the US can also be good for Ukrainians for entirely different reasons.
Quote from: JBS on January 29, 2023, 12:17:41 PMYou seem to think that is a list of bad things.
It is a list of published policy options that helped create the conditions for the Russo-Ukrainian War. More than 40,000 civilians have died in the war. Many or most people would consider that bad. Evidently you do not. That's fine.
Quote from: JBS on January 29, 2023, 12:17:41 PMAnd getting rid of Lukashenko would have been a very good thing, for Belarussians and for Ukrainians.
You also support regime change now. So, you are an admitted cultural chauvinist, think nothing of dead civilians, and favor regime change. You are a warmonger.
I support Russians and Belos changing their regimes to promote peace, which is what most of them want. All good warmongers should want that. Even Miss Universe wants world peace, and if it's good enough for her I'm on board.
As for RAND, you want them to game all the options. Calling them objectives distorts their meaning. But that's entirely consistent with my previous insight that knowing anything about the evil consequences of war makes you an advocate for evil consequences. Only ignorance can be an excuse on this view.
Stay Dum. Learn nothing. Don't Study War No More.
My advice is learn as much as you can, or at least can take. I can't wargame like Rand, but the wargaming I do gives me considerably more insight into the situation in the South China Sea than I would have with the "study no more" path. Knowledge doesn't taint you, it just leaves you less vulnerable to trollish manipulators.
Quote from: Todd on January 29, 2023, 12:24:02 PMIt is a list of published policy options that helped create the conditions for the Russo-Ukrainian War. More than 40,000 civilians have died in the war. Many or most people would consider that bad. Evidently you do not. That's fine.
You also support regime change now. So, you are an admitted cultural chauvinist, think nothing of dead civilians, and favor regime change. You are a warmonger.
Almost all of those things were either not actually done, or done only after Ukraine was invaded. So it's better to say that 40k Ukrainians died because we didn't do warmonger type of things.
Quote from: JBS on January 29, 2023, 04:21:48 PMAlmost all of those things were either not actually done, or done only after Ukraine was invaded. So it's better to say that 40k Ukrainians died because we didn't do warmonger type of things.
No, all six items I listed were continuously pursued or implemented before February 2022. All can be verified online. That's why they were selected from the longer, broader list, which I suspect you did not read. Ukrainian civilians are dying as a direct result of US policy.
I am somewhat surprised that you endorse Trump's withdrawal from the INF Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty. Or are you suggesting those things did not happen?
Also, since you have now come out in favor of regime change, should any other regimes be changed to meet US preferences?
Quote from: Todd on January 29, 2023, 04:41:16 PMNo, all six items I listed were continuously pursued or implemented before February 2022. All can be verified online. That's why they were selected from the longer, broader list, which I suspect you did not read. Ukrainian civilians are dying as a direct result of US policy.
I am somewhat surprised that you endorse Trump's withdrawal from the INF Treaty. Or are you suggesting that did not happen?
Also, since you have now come out in favor of regime change, should any other regimes be changed to meet US preferences?
Ukrainians are dying because Putin chose to make war on Ukraine. Those who try to blame those deaths on US policy are merely helping make sure even more Ukrainians die.
I am all in favor of Iranians, Belusrussians, Russians, Venezuelans, Syrians, and several other peoples getting rid of the dictatorships that currently rule over them. The fact that this is good for US does not mean it is bad for them.
Quote from: JBS on January 29, 2023, 04:53:56 PMUkrainians are dying because Putin chose to make war on Ukraine.
And Putin chose to invade Ukraine because the US established the conditions that led to Russian hostilities.
Quote from: JBS on January 29, 2023, 04:53:56 PMThose who try to blame those deaths on US policy are merely helping make sure even more Ukrainians die.
Some perhaps, but others, like me, believe the US should immediately cease support for Ukraine and publicly push for a political settlement. Had such a policy been pursued early on, tens of thousands of innocent people would not have died. And had the US heeded Russian warnings starting in the 90s, war could have been avoided altogether, all the way back in 2014. Really, your assertion is false on its face.
Quote from: JBS on January 29, 2023, 04:53:56 PMI am all in favor of Iranians, Belusrussians, Russians, Venezuelans, Syrians, and several other peoples getting rid of the dictatorships that currently rule over them.
How will such changes occur?
I notice also that you did not address the factual existence of the six items I mentioned, and you did not clarify whether you support Trump's actions, or if you even believe they happened. Based on your last post on the topic, I must conclude that you believe they did not happen.
Quote from: Todd on January 29, 2023, 05:04:14 PMAnd Putin chose to invade Ukraine because the US established the conditions that led to Russian hostilities.
Some perhaps, but others, like me, believe the US should immediately cease support for Ukraine and publicly push for a political settlement. Had such a policy been pursued early on, tens of thousands of innocent people would not have died. And had the US heeded Russian warnings starting in the 90s, war could have been avoided altogether, all the way back in 2014. Really, your assertion is false on its face.
How will such changes occur?
I notice also that you did not address the factual existence of the six items I mentioned, and you did not clarify whether you support Trump's actions, or if you even believe they happened. Based on your last post on the topic, I must conclude that you believe they did not happen.
You yourself are known for ( among other things ) ignoring arguments you don't care to address. That being the case, attempting to call someone out because they don't respond to every single point you raise merely confirms your own trollishness.
Not to mention the following straight up lie:
" Ukrainian civilians are dying as a direct result of US policy. "
In any case, after explicitly stating your indifference to Ukraine existing in slavery, you don't then get to turn around and confront others for holding positions which ( in your questionable opinion ) supposedly extend Ukrainian suffering.
Todd continues to insist that Ukrainians have no will of their own, I see.
Whereas he, of course, is a thinking human being rather than a mindless puppet of larger forces. ::)
Quote from: drogulus on January 29, 2023, 07:58:29 AMHere's a bloodthirsty report, as it contains war facts and analysis. Consider this a trigger warning.
The new tanks will be arriving too late for Putin's possible "anniversary offensive" - that would be the whole point of the timing. All the more important, not mentioned in the clip, that Poland has also promised more (upgraded) Soviet era tanks. Those can be put to use right away. I hope the European allies also part with some of their remaing stock of MIG's.
Quote from: RAND CorporationTransnistria (a Russian-occupied enclave within Moldova)
This is geographically incorrect. Transnistria is not an enclave within Moldova but a long and narrow strip of land squeezed between Moldova and Ukraine. Truth be told, it has never been part of the Principality of Moldova, whose easternmost border was precisely the Dniester River.
Anyway, they have a very interesting flag.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bc/Flag_of_Transnistria_%28state%29.svg/1280px-Flag_of_Transnistria_%28state%29.svg.png)
and in front of their "parliament" lies this statue:
(https://www.kathmanduandbeyond.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Transnistria-Parliament-Tiraspol-Transnistria-3.jpg)
Actually, they are a kind of Liechtenstein: they too are the last remnant of an extinct empire. ;D
Quote from: Florestan on January 30, 2023, 02:15:18 AMThis is geographically incorrect. Transnistria is not an enclave within Moldova but a long and narrow strip of land squeezed between Moldova and Ukraine. Truth be told, it has never been part of the Principality of Moldova, whose easternmost border was precisely the Dniester River.
Anyway, they have a very interesting flag.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bc/Flag_of_Transnistria_%28state%29.svg/1280px-Flag_of_Transnistria_%28state%29.svg.png)
and in front of their "parliament" lies this statue:
(https://www.kathmanduandbeyond.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Transnistria-Parliament-Tiraspol-Transnistria-3.jpg)
Actually, they are a kind of Liechtenstein: they too are the last remnant of an extinct empire. ;D
It's a weird beast. I was just looking up a bit of the history. When it was the Moldavian ASSR, in the 1920s and 30s and before the Soviet Union controlled the rest of what became Moldova, it was a subunit within Ukraine and the population had more ethnic Ukrainians than it did Moldavians. When the rest of Moldova was grabbed, some of the more Ukrainian bits were kept in Ukraine. But the Wikipedia article hints that the reason for the Soviets shifting the boundaries might also have been to strengthen the hold on Moldova.
I know Europe is full of spots where linguistic, religious, cultural and political boundaries don't line up neatly, but there's always someone who can't leave these things alone. Currently Putin at the head of the list.
Quote from: LKB on January 29, 2023, 09:45:22 PMThat being the case, attempting to call someone out because they don't respond to every single point you raise merely confirms your own trollishness.
Incorrect. Unilateral withdrawal from two nuclear arms control treaties is the very definition of substantive, and JBS believes the US did not withdraw from the treaties. The other five items listed from the RAND document are all policies that have been pursued for years. JBS was unable to address the specific points at all.
Note that use of the word "trollishness" is exactly equivalent to proclamations of being un-American, a Putin apologist, and the like. It is mindless.
Quote from: LKB on January 29, 2023, 09:45:22 PMNot to mention the following straight up lie:
" Ukrainian civilians are dying as a direct result of US policy. "
Incorrect. Ukrainians are dying as the direct result of US policy.
Quote from: LKB on January 29, 2023, 09:45:22 PMIn any case, after explicitly stating your indifference to Ukraine existing in slavery, you don't then get to turn around and confront others for holding positions which ( in your questionable opinion ) supposedly extend Ukrainian suffering.
My views on foreign policy are amoral. Almost every other person on this forum moralizes constantly, even or especially about foreign policy. I am pointing out the immorality of positions of people like you.
Quote from: Florestan on January 30, 2023, 02:15:18 AMThis is geographically incorrect. Transnistria is not an enclave within Moldova but a long and narrow strip of land squeezed between Moldova and Ukraine.
This appears to be fabricated. Per the UN, no countries recognize Transnistria. To cite merely one NGO, Human Rights Watch considers it as part of its analysis of Moldova.
International organizations and the RAND Corporation are more trustworthy sources in this instance.
Quote from: Todd on January 30, 2023, 06:19:47 AMThis appears to be fabricated.
I don't know what "this" refers to. Geographically speaking, Transistria is not an enclave within Moldova but a long and narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine. Politically speaking, it's a Russian-backed separatist province of the Republic of Moldova.
(https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/13F9/production/_127831150_bbcm_moldova_transnistria_profile_301122.jpg)
Quote from: Florestan on January 30, 2023, 06:35:59 AMI don't know what "this" refers to.
Your post stating that Transnistria is not within Moldova. Per the world, it is.
Quote from: Todd on January 30, 2023, 07:27:44 AMYour post stating that Transnistria is not within Moldova
I stated no such thing. I stated "Transnistria is not an enclave within Moldova" which is absolutely correct from the specifically geographic point of view I posted. San Marino, Campione d"Italia or Lesotho are enclaves; Transnistria is not. If you want to nitpick on that, be my guest, but before wasting your time be advised I'm not going to waste mine.
Quote from: Florestan on January 30, 2023, 07:34:22 AMTransnistria is not an enclave within Moldova
Transnistria is part of Moldova. That is what is known as a fact.
Back to the war, and specifically the mystery surrounding Nord Stream, here's a hot take from wannabe Viceroy Victoria Nuland:
Today we learned that Todd can't even be bothered to learn or acknowledge what an enclave is.
Whether this is stubbornness, trolling or a purer form of stupidity, I leave to the reader.
Be it noted that the reason I didn't reply to Todd was solely due to the disgust caused by his attempts to blame the US for Putin's war, instead of acknowledging that the blame belongs to the man who started the war. A proper reply would be so full of obscenities that Que would be obliged to delete it simply to keep GMG from being listed as a porno site.
Quote from: JBS on January 30, 2023, 06:55:33 PMBe it noted that the reason I didn't reply to Todd was solely due to the disgust caused by his attempts to blame the US for Putin's war, instead of acknowledging that the blame belongs to the man who started the war. A proper reply would be so full of obscenities that Que would be obliged to delete it simply to keep GMG from being listed as a porno site.
Goodness.
You explicitly denied that the US withdrew from the INF Treaty. That's what you wrote. Replies needn't be laden with obscenities. That's a lie, nothing but a lie. Perhaps you can pull yourself together. Perhaps not.
Quote from: Todd on January 30, 2023, 07:20:25 PMGoodness.
You explicitly denied that the US withdrew from the INF Treaty. That's what you wrote. Replies needn't be laden with obscenities. That's a lie, nothing but a lie. Perhaps you can pull yourself together. Perhaps not.
The US withdrew from the treaty after 2014 and therefore after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Saying US policy is responsible for Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a blatant falsification of events, and deserves every obscenity in English, Ukrainian, and Russian.
Well, if you insist on bringing DATES into it you can prove anything!
(I am channeling an anecdote from Tovey here, about a woman who told him that one composer was an imitator of another despite the supposed imitator living earlier)
Report by the Guardian:
Biden says the US will not provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
The United States will not provide the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has sought in its fight against Russia, President Joe Biden said on Monday.
Ukraine planned to push for western fourth-generation fighter jets such as the F-16 after securing supplies of main battle tanks last week, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister said on Friday. A Ukrainian air force spokesperson said it would take its pilots about half a year to train on such fighter jets.
Asked if the United States would provide the jets, Biden told reporters at the White House, "No."
Quote from: JBS on January 30, 2023, 07:55:17 PMSaying US policy is responsible for Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a blatant falsification of events, and deserves every obscenity in English, Ukrainian, and Russian.
About a week ago I posted an obscenity in Romanian but it was removed together with some other posts I exchanged with Todd. ;D
Quote from: Que on January 30, 2023, 10:37:25 PMReport by the Guardian:
Biden says the US will not provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
The United States will not provide the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has sought in its fight against Russia, President Joe Biden said on Monday.
Ukraine planned to push for western fourth-generation fighter jets such as the F-16 after securing supplies of main battle tanks last week, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister said on Friday. A Ukrainian air force spokesperson said it would take its pilots about half a year to train on such fighter jets.
Asked if the United States would provide the jets, Biden told reporters at the White House, "No."
We might dare hope that Ukraine might receive some Soviet era Jets from, say, Poland.
I'm thinking that the USA is prolonging the war by its hesitancy to provide effective, contemporary equipment in a timely wy. Its been late providing HIMARs and now Abrams M1 tanks, (better late than never I suppose).
Quote from: JBS on January 30, 2023, 07:55:17 PMThe US withdrew from the treaty after 2014 and therefore after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Yes, and the US withdrew from two treaties after the RAND document was published and before Russia escalated the war last February. It appears we can agree on chronology.
Do you approve of Trump's decisions to withdraw from the INF Treaty in 2019 and the Open Skies Treaty in 2020? Do you also approve of George W Bush's withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2001? The sole nuclear arms treaty that remains in effect is New START.
Withdrawing from nuclear arms control treaties are inherently provocative acts. The incontrovertible fact is that the USA withdrew from nuclear treaties this century. Russia did not. Russian actions in 2014 do not explain US actions on nuclear treaties in 2019 and 2020. Or are you suggesting that the US had no choice but to abandon the treaties?
Quote from: JBS on January 30, 2023, 07:55:17 PMSaying US policy is responsible for Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a blatant falsification of events, and deserves every obscenity in English, Ukrainian, and Russian.
No events have been falsified. The real issue is that you and all pro-war posters on this board have adopted a ridiculously simplistic and entirely false outlook on the war. The idea that Putin took the decisions he did without warning and without consideration of geopolitical reality, sort of just conjuring a war out of nothing but his own unpleasantness, or whatever, is absurd and laughable. Vladimir Putin is an autocrat who has committed war crimes, and not just in Ukraine. He should but won't stand trial in the Hague for his actions. Russia is the aggressor in this war. At the same time, the United States established the conditions that led to the war. Both conditions can and do exist.
(And this is distinct from the fact that the US has committed war crimes and other crimes against humanity this century that exceed those of Russia, and the same is true in the entire post-war era.)
Quote from: Que on January 30, 2023, 10:37:25 PMBiden says the US will not provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
Good.
Quote from: Que on January 30, 2023, 10:37:25 PMReport by the Guardian:
Biden says the US will not provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine
The United States will not provide the F-16 fighter jets that Ukraine has sought in its fight against Russia, President Joe Biden said on Monday.
Ukraine planned to push for western fourth-generation fighter jets such as the F-16 after securing supplies of main battle tanks last week, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister said on Friday. A Ukrainian air force spokesperson said it would take its pilots about half a year to train on such fighter jets.
Asked if the United States would provide the jets, Biden told reporters at the White House, "No."
Ukraine will get 4th gen planes. They will be F-16s or equivalents, planes that can carry air to air missiles to replace SAMs that are running low. These planes will also attack ground targets with accurate boom boom. In addition they can make it more difficult than ever for Russia to fly over Ukraine.
Financial Times
Lockheed Martin has said it stands ready to meet demand for its F-16 aircraft as some of Ukraine's closest European allies revive efforts to provide fighter jets to Kyiv.
The decision by the US and Germany to send tanks to Ukraine has reignited discussions, which European defence officials cautioned were at an early stage.
Frank St John, chief operating officer of Lockheed Martin, the largest US defence contractor, told the Financial Times that there was "a lot of conversation about third party transfer of F-16s" — whereby countries would re-export their US jets to Ukraine to defend its airspace. Lockheed is not directly involved in talks regarding the potential delivery of military aircraft to Kyiv.
However, St John said the company was "going to be ramping production on F-16s in Greenville [South Carolina] to get to the place where we will be able to backfill pretty capably any countries that choose to do third-party transfers to help with the current conflict". Biden says he won't send F-16s. I believe him. What does Poland say?
Another installment of
They're saying it publicly. After Chuck Todd leads in with polls showing declining support for Ukraine, and then also uses loaded and biased language regarding how Afghanistan and Iraq cloud the public's judgment, Bobbie Gates, SecDef for Bush and Obama, states that the President must "educate" the public, must repeat the message "over and over and over again" and that "you have to keep pounding away". (The fun starts at around 2:06.) In other words, he's publicly advocating for outright pro-war propaganda at the highest level. Keep that support up. I mean, sure, it would be nice if someone at the highest level could articulate American interests in Ukraine, but that really is just asking too much.
Keep fighting.
No negotiations.
When Putin is ready to leave Ukrainian territory there will be something to negotiate. Only agreements on immediate action matter because nothing Putin signs is worth anything. This obvious fact sets the conditions under which real negotiations can happen.
If Putin won't negotiate, his troops will continue to die in large numbers. That's a pro negotiation incentive. If Putin is ready to withdraw his troops can stop dying and go home. That seems fair.
Putin shouldn't keep fighting. He should negotiate. He won't like the terms, but he won't like the outcome if he doesn't.
Quote from: drogulus on January 31, 2023, 10:11:46 AMnothing Putin signs is worth anything. This obvious fact sets the conditions under which real negotiations can happen.
Да, конечно.
Nothing the US has done anywhere in the world has been anywhere half as bad as what Russia has done in Syria.
But if a person refuses to understand that making sure people who start wars don't get any benefit from is in the US's interest (as well as being a basic bit of morality) nothing any of us say will make them understand.
Gentlemen, I wonder why you keep responding to our resident troll's garbage instead of putting him on your ignore lists like I have done.
Well, some of your answers can be quite entertaining, I admit.
Quote from: premont on February 01, 2023, 12:50:34 AMGentlemen, I wonder why you keep responding to our resident troll's garbage instead of putting him on your ignore lists like I have done.
Well, some of your answers can be quite entertaining, I admit.
It does pass the time in between mongering wars and abusing kittens.
Quote from: JBS on January 31, 2023, 05:36:34 PMNothing the US has done anywhere in the world has been anywhere half as bad as what Russia has done in Syria.
Philippines. Vietnam. Iraq.
Brown University keeps a running tally of the atrocities committed by the US this century. You already disputed it, though Brown University is correct and you are incorrect.
You live in an alternate reality.
A compact and informative 8.5 minute interview with Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group. The Eurasia Group is a think tank, so as has been established here, everything it produces is gold.
Mr Bremmer supports the West. Note, though, that he explicitly calls the war a proxy war. There have been posters on this forum who denied this
fact. Also, starting at about four minutes in, he describes why the economic sanctions have not been as effective as was promised by the bold, strong, and
tough leaders of the West. He does not seem to believe they will be as effective as hoped going forward, and he points out the understandable hesitance to impose secondary sanctions. He also points out that most of the world does not support the West. That
fact is lost on many people. He also makes it a point to say that many or most democratic countries in the developing world do not support the West. That would seem to be important since pro-war propaganda in the West portrays this war as at least partly a war between good and righteous democracies and bad and unholy autocracies.
Since the target audience for this interview is the investor class, Mr Bremmer must shed the triumphalist pro-war propaganda so beloved by many pro-war folks.
Ah, who am I kidding, Bremmer is a Putin apologist who is falsifying events.
Quote from: premont on February 01, 2023, 12:50:34 AMGentlemen, I wonder why you keep responding to our resident troll's garbage instead of putting him on your ignore lists like I have done.
Well, some of your answers can be quite entertaining, I admit.
He acts like a troll in this thread, but his posts are much much better in other threads. I am amazed how good posts he makes in the audio gear thread for example.
Quote from: Todd on February 01, 2023, 04:35:17 AM
A compact and informative 8.5 minute interview with Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group. The Eurasia Group is a think tank, so as has been established here, everything it produces is gold.
Mr Bremmer supports the West. Note, though, that he explicitly calls the war a proxy war. There have been posters on this forum who denied this fact. Also, starting at about four minutes in, he describes why the economic sanctions have not been as effective as was promised by the bold, strong, and tough leaders of the West. He does not seem to believe they will be as effective as hoped going forward, and he points out the understandable hesitance to impose secondary sanctions. He also points out that most of the world does not support the West. That fact is lost on many people. He also makes it a point to say that many or most democratic countries in the developing world do not support the West. That would seem to be important since pro-war propaganda in the West portrays this war as at least partly a war between good and righteous democracies and bad and unholy autocracies.
Since the target audience for this interview is the investor class, Mr Bremmer must shed the triumphalist pro-war propaganda so beloved by many pro-war folks.
Ah, who am I kidding, Bremmer is a Putin apologist who is falsifying events.
If you're kidding anyone, it's yourself.
I've heard Brenner's comments on many occasions and I like him for his hard-core realism, though I don't always agree.
Is Ukraine War a proxy war between NATO and Russia, (I almost typed 'the Soviet Union')? In the first instance,
NO, it's a war between Russia and Ukraine. In fact it's not a 'proxy' war in the usual sense for Russia. Yes, fairly it is for NATO. But then NATO -- that is, Europe -- has a lot at stake. Putin's goal is to render Ukraine into subservience to Russia, and if he wins in Ukraine, it won't be the last place that he targets. The USA for its part has nothing to gain and lots to loose in case of an eastern Europe under Russia's thumb; is that American self-interest? Of course.
The Third World feels it doesn't have as much "skin in the game" as does Europe. And,
true, it doesn't feel it has any more to gain by pleasing the USA than continuing its truck & trade with Russia. Also true is that the 3rd World in general is no big fan of the USA. Largely it's that they see US policy as self-interested and self-seeking, (
who'd have thought?); partially also it's simple resentment of American power.
Bremmer raises the issue of the US' relationship with Israel which has always been and remains
uncritical of that country in any substantive way. Bremmer with pin-point accuracy attributes the success of the "Abraham Accords" on ME regional players seeing Iran as their major threat and Israel, pragmatically, as a ally in that game. (I have suggested that USA ought seek some sort of
detente with Iran as practical way to ease pressure among ME adversaries; this unlikely to happen of course.)
Quote from: premont on February 01, 2023, 12:50:34 AMGentlemen, I wonder why you keep responding to our resident troll's garbage instead of putting him on your ignore lists like I have done.
Well, some of your answers can be quite entertaining, I admit.
Unfortunately putting him on ignore would mean missing his posts in the New Releases and other music threads.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 01, 2023, 06:16:55 AMIn the first instance, NO, it's a war between Russia and Ukraine.
No, it's a proxy war between the US and Russia. Internationalists might prefer to say it is a proxy war between NATO and Russia. Mr Bremmer does.
Mr Bremmer is just one more analyst who points out that based on data the economic war is not as successful as warmongers proclaim, that there are limits to what can be done in the realm, and that the West does not enjoy global support. Typically, white majority countries will poo-poo the developing world. (Your use of the now long out of favor phrase Third World indicates that you are out of touch. I'm guessing you are elderly.) That is to be expected and misses some of the larger developments coming out of this war.
The Israel stuff does not concern me.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 01, 2023, 06:16:55 AMThe USA for its part has nothing to gain and lots to loose in case of an eastern Europe under Russia's thumb; is that American self-interest? Of course.
What precisely does it have to gain and what does it stand to lose?
Quote from: JBS on February 01, 2023, 06:34:19 AMUnfortunately putting him on ignore would mean missing his posts in the New Releases and other music threads.
Life is about choices.
Quote from: JBS on February 01, 2023, 06:34:19 AMUnfortunately putting him on ignore would mean missing his posts in the New Releases and other music threads.
On the contrary: It is easy to ignore!
From AP: US accuses Russia of endangering nuclear arms control treaty (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-f910671d0d8f831ce0f8b65cd32523d1)
Quote from: United States Department Of StateRussia's refusal to facilitate inspection activities prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the treaty and threatens the viability of U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control
You can't make this stuff up.
Quote from: 71 dB on February 01, 2023, 05:17:20 AMHe acts like a troll in this thread, but his posts are much much better in other threads. I am amazed how good posts he makes in the audio gear thread for example.
Yes, and in the Beethoven threads eg. But putting him on my ignore list frees me from reading his post in this very "war" thread, while I can easily read his post in the music threads - if I'm in the mood for it. 8)
Quote from: Todd on February 01, 2023, 06:41:28 AMWhat precisely does it {the USA} have to gain and what does it stand to lose?
Why do I dignify this with an answer?
But OK. On the upside, the USA gains the respect of European NATO members by supporting Ukraine
against Russia -- which they hate and fear. The downside would be an eastern Europe dominated by Russia generally working to undermine American world-wide status.
European countries, (being smarter or at lease more honest than you), understand that Putin's real & ultimate ambition is Russian domination of eastern Europe and the destruction of the EU.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 01, 2023, 08:56:35 AMthe destruction of the EU.
Actually, this is a goal that Todd heartily supports. He repeatedly stated that US should do everything in their power to destroy EU, going as far as to assert that the US might even have to go to war with EU. I'm not making this stuff up, he did say all that.
Quote from: Florestan on February 01, 2023, 09:06:44 AMActually, this is a goal that Todd heartily supports. He repeatedly stated that US should do everything in their power to destroy EU, going as far as to assert that the US might even have to go to war with EU. I'm not making this stuff up, he did say all that.
Yes, he actually did. But what's the point of tormenting yourself with his rubbish all the time?
Quote from: JBS on February 01, 2023, 06:34:19 AMUnfortunately putting him on ignore would mean missing his posts in the New Releases and other music threads.
I open his posts on New Releases. You can always open individual posts.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 01, 2023, 08:56:35 AMOn the upside, the USA gains the respect of European NATO members by supporting Ukraine against Russia -- which they hate and fear. The downside would be an eastern Europe dominated by Russia generally working to undermine American world-wide status.
These are entirely nebulous and therefore meaningless answers. I am seeking concrete benefits and costs. Concrete benefits would be primarily economic in nature. Additionally, observable and quantifiable enhancements to US security, manifested perhaps in the ability of the US to reduce its military deployments in Europe by X number of servicemembers could also be considered meaningful. Costs would include additional security commitments, additional troop deployments, and an increased risk of military confrontation for countries that do not present any potential benefits to the US. North Macedonia offers a perfect example of a country that imposes costs and no benefits for the US.
Russia is in long-term decline. It cannot even conquer Ukraine, with which it shares a long border. Its naval and air force capabilities are severely hampered compared to even the waning days of the USSR. Russia cannot undermine the US everywhere all the time except via various non-military means - eg, ever fearsome hacking. It would be entirely possible to counter such dastardly potential Russian actions with all manner of non-military policies, such as development aid without the stifling conditions imposed by the IMF and World Bank, trade status enhancement, etc.
US foreign policy really ought not to be based on emotions (eg, fear, hatred) of the leaders of lesser countries.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 01, 2023, 08:56:35 AMEuropean countries, (being smarter or at lease more honest than you), understand that Putin's real & ultimate ambition is Russian domination of eastern Europe and the destruction of the EU.
Countries are political entities, not people, so they cannot be smart or honest. They may however lease things.
Quote from: Florestan on February 01, 2023, 09:06:44 AMActually, this is a goal that Todd heartily supports. He repeatedly stated that US should do everything in their power to destroy EU, going as far as to assert that the US might even have to go to war with EU. I'm not making this stuff up, he did say all that.
Yes, I did write that, and yes, I do heartily support policies that would lead to the destruction of the EU. I would be fully satisfied with rendering it as ineffectual as the UN. Hobbling a ragtag entity like the EU would be easier. If war becomes necessary, it becomes necessary. I see that as an edge case, though.
It doesn't matter how proxyish a war is for Ukraine. They want support and the words used to describe it aren't important. No wordplay can cause the Ukes to suddenly realize they aren't really defending their country but are only really defending the rest of Europe. Of course Zelensky has said that defending themselves defends others. All of Europe knows this.
The deception is the implication the wider consequences negate the immediate ones. By clever wordplay Ukraine is not really defending itself at all. It can't be something if it's also something else.
Quote from: Todd on February 01, 2023, 06:41:28 AMNo, it's a proxy war between the US and Russia.
People like simple, reductive answers to complicated questions because people are, in general, intellectually lazy.
Quote from: BasilValentine on February 01, 2023, 12:34:49 PMPeople like simple, reductive answers to complicated questions because people are, in general, intellectually lazy.
True. That's why some people like to pretend that it is a war between Russia and Ukraine, or that the US played no role in establishing the conditions that led to war.
Quote from: Todd on February 01, 2023, 12:36:41 PMTrue. That's why some people like to pretend that it is a war between Russia and Ukraine.
No, it's just a special operation within Russia.
Pretend.
Moron.
Edit: Actually, not so much moron as Ukraine denialist. You don't believe Ukraine is a real country, which is why you can continue asserting Ukraine is not at war.
As a person who's known a few people of Ukrainian descent over the years, I wonder if you realise just how profoundly insulting you're being.
Quote from: 71 dB on February 01, 2023, 05:17:20 AMHe acts like a troll in this thread, but his posts are much much better in other threads. I am amazed how good posts he makes in the audio gear thread for example.
I'm beginning to get to the position of thinking this is a bit like saying that Hitler made some nice paintings and was a very engaging conversationalist when he wasn't wreaking havoc.
Yes I'm going with Godwin's law. Given that Todd reads nothing I say I don't have to care about that. He's not my audience. Everyone else here is.
Todd says things on this thread that are so utterly abhorrent that I'm finding it harder and harder to see him as actually adding value to the forum. Maybe I'm not sufficiently obsessed with documenting the latest 43 Beethoven cycles or what the record companies in East Asia are releasing to see the value, but what I see is a man who has consistently denied the agency of an entire country that is fighting for its existence, and regularly casts doubt on whether the country exists not just whether it has the right to continue existing.
Why are we tolerating this? Why are we continuing to accept as a member a man who advocates the erasure of an ethnic identity?
Go back over this thread and see what it takes for him to mention Ukraine as anything other than a place where Russia and USA/the West are having a battle. The Ukrainian people barely get mentioned.
I've known Ukrainian people. The mother of my best friend in primary school was Ukrainian. I work with a Ukrainian. These people fucking hate Russia, precisely because Russia denies the existence of Ukrainian identity.
And Todd is persistently exhibiting the same denial here. And I'm getting to the point where I'm pretty sick of the forum tolerating it.
Quote from: Madiel on February 01, 2023, 12:57:49 PMWhy are we tolerating this? Why are we continuing to accept as a member a man who advocates the erasure of an ethnic identity?
It is not for me to decide who we tolerate here. I am not the admin. All I can do is choose how much I ignore Todd's posts. I am not responsible of Todd's abhorrent posts, am I?
It is a sign of the effectiveness of pro-war propaganda and the eager willingness of some people to passionately believe it that some people confuse my advocacy of the US immediately using its full power to pursue a negotiated settlement with Russia to bring a swift end to this war with other especially nefarious things.
Ending the war is the moral thing to do; prolonging the war is the immoral thing to do.
Quote from: Todd on February 01, 2023, 01:46:53 PMIt is a sign of the effectiveness of pro-war propaganda and the eager willingness of some people to passionately believe it that some people confuse my advocacy of the US immediately using its full power to pursue a negotiated settlement with Russia to bring a swift end to this war with other especially nefarious things.
Ending the war is the moral thing to do; prolonging the war is the immoral thing to do.
And again, the country of Ukraine is absent from this negotiation.
Every fucking time. While saying he's not doing the especially nefarious thing of erasing Ukrainian identity, he yet again proposes a negotiation where the country that's being invaded is not mentioned as a party to the negotiations.
Quote from: 71 dB on February 01, 2023, 01:28:43 PMIt is not for me to decide who we tolerate here. I am not the admin. All I can do is choose how much I ignore Todd's posts. I am not responsible of Todd's abhorrent posts, am I?
The ultimate decision is not yours. Expressing a view, though, is also up to you.
There's an expression which I'm not sure has global rather than Australian currency, but here it is:
The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.
I'm not walking past. I'm standing here and I'm pointing it out. It's not okay to constantly erase Ukraine from the map.
Quote from: Madiel on February 01, 2023, 12:57:49 PMTodd says things on this thread that are so utterly abhorrent that I'm finding it harder and harder to see him as actually adding value to the forum.
Hence, while one can elect to read a post by a user one has on Ignore, I never do in his case.
Quote from: Madiel on February 01, 2023, 02:52:40 PMIt's not okay to constantly erase Ukraine from the map.
Not okay, and well beyond a personal tic.
Quote from: Madiel on February 01, 2023, 10:38:18 AMI open his posts on New Releases. You can always open individual posts.
Quite true. My Ignore list now has someone on it.
Quote from: JBS on February 01, 2023, 04:12:16 PMQuite true. My Ignore list now has someone on it.
Not without reason.
Quote from: Todd on February 01, 2023, 01:46:53 PMEnding the war is the moral thing to do; prolonging the war is the immoral thing to do.
Tell Mad Vlad that!
Quote from: premont on February 02, 2023, 01:59:18 AMTell Mad Vlad that!
I suspect Vlad and Todd both think that "ending" by reaching the desired conclusion is different to "stopping" trying to get there.
Quote from: Madiel on February 02, 2023, 02:46:40 AMI suspect Vlad and Todd both think that "ending" by reaching the desired conclusion is different to "stopping" trying to get there.
Then "ending" and "prolonging" would imply identical actions and Todd's post would be senseless (though this of course is far from the first time this has happened).
Quote from: premont on February 02, 2023, 02:59:34 AMThen "ending" and "prolonging" would imply identical actions and Todd's post would be senseless (though this of course is far from the first time this has happened).
Well exactly. Much of his stance is so full of doublespeak that it's hard to know which parts of it are conscious sophistry and which parts are massive self-deception.
I haven't received any offers for buying Todd's house. Which is disappointing. I've made my willingness to negotiate the sale of his property VERY clear.
Quote from: premont on February 02, 2023, 01:59:18 AMTell Mad Vlad that!
Do you have his contact information? I would happily send him a letter or an email or a text conveying this message. I'm sure it would make all the difference.
Negotiations will result from what's decided by the "keep fighting". Is that clear? I think it is. The present negotiation posture of all the parties reflect that. Putin needs a final verdict and won't give up before that point. The US can't give up for him, he or his successor must do it.
The US won't negotiate a chunk of Ukraine away. The will of Ukraine to fight even if it loses support is as certain as anything can be. That conditions what parties can negotiate, even if they are so bold as to attempt to usurp the Ukrainian government authority. Ukraine won't let Russia do it, and I don't think they will let anyone else do it either.
Go ahead and try to negotiate Ukraine out from under it's government and military. How's that supposed to work?
Quote from: Madiel on February 01, 2023, 12:57:49 PMI'm beginning to get to the position of thinking this is a bit like saying that Hitler made some nice paintings and was a very engaging conversationalist when he wasn't wreaking havoc.
Yes I'm going with Godwin's law. Given that Todd reads nothing I say I don't have to care about that. He's not my audience. Everyone else here is.
Todd says things on this thread that are so utterly abhorrent that I'm finding it harder and harder to see him as actually adding value to the forum. Maybe I'm not sufficiently obsessed with documenting the latest 43 Beethoven cycles or what the record companies in East Asia are releasing to see the value, but what I see is a man who has consistently denied the agency of an entire country that is fighting for its existence, and regularly casts doubt on whether the country exists not just whether it has the right to continue existing.
Why are we tolerating this? Why are we continuing to accept as a member a man who advocates the erasure of an ethnic identity?
Go back over this thread and see what it takes for him to mention Ukraine as anything other than a place where Russia and USA/the West are having a battle. The Ukrainian people barely get mentioned.
I've known Ukrainian people. The mother of my best friend in primary school was Ukrainian. I work with a Ukrainian. These people fucking hate Russia, precisely because Russia denies the existence of Ukrainian identity.
And Todd is persistently exhibiting the same denial here. And I'm getting to the point where I'm pretty sick of the forum tolerating it.
Madiel, l understand the frustration you're experiencing, and I'm going to make an attempt here to alleviate it.
First off, please note that I'm:
a) not a mod, and therefore speak only for myself.
b) not remotely in any sort of friendly relationship with Todd, and
c) have been both steadfast and vocal in my support of both Ukraine and the Western assistance they've received since that little f**k in the Kremlin launched the war last year.
Okay... So, this is primarily a forum for discussing and exploring classical music.
Todd has made regular contributions to some of the musical threads here for some time, and others have posted positive responses regarding his contributions to those threads. So as a member, he's demonstrated value within the context of the nominal purpose for this bbs.
In addition, he's avoided ( as far as l can tell ) any sort of forbidden activity which would trigger suspension or banning.
As odious, ignorant and insensitive as his postings are, they are the only available means for presenting his opinion, and as such he has as much right to post them as anyone else who is posting to present
their opinion.
As long as he continues to play by the rules, he has as much say as any other regular member, which is exactly how it should be.
From Foreign Policy: Is the U.S. Military Capable of Learning From the War in Ukraine? (https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/02/us-military-lessons-war-ukraine-russia-weapons-tactics/)
Quote from: Raphael S. Cohen and Gian GentileAnd wars such as Russia's in Ukraine—which provide a meaningful test of U.S. hardware and strategic assumptions without costing American blood—are even rarer occasions.
And Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, et al take full advantage of such occasions.
On the topic of weapons:
Switzerland rethinks neutrality, considers weapons exports amid Ukraine crisis (https://www.politico.eu/article/switzerland-rethinks-neutrality-considers-weapon-export-amid-ukraine-russia-war-crisis/)
Pesky neutrality gets in the way of weapons exports and re-exports. The Swiss would be wise to abandon five centuries of neutrality for corrupt Ukraine. On the upside, it could up weapons sales, offsetting the pinch on financial services imposed by the US starting in the Bush years. Everyone wins. Well, except for dead civilians.
In response to LKB: I'm not a big reader of toddposts, but from what I've seen in skimming this disaster topic it's not just that he's stating his opinion. He's clearly trolling and provoking other posters, who often take the bait etc.
Quote from: LKB on February 02, 2023, 08:24:09 AMMadiel, l understand the frustration you're experiencing, and I'm going to make an attempt here to alleviate it.
First off, please note that I'm:
a) not a mod, and therefore speak only for myself.
b) not remotely in any sort of friendly relationship with Todd, and
c) have been both steadfast and vocal in my support of both Ukraine and the Western assistance they've received since that little f**k in the Kremlin launched the war last year.
Okay... So, this is primarily a forum for discussing and exploring classical music.
Todd has made regular contributions to some of the musical threads here for some time, and others have posted positive responses regarding his contributions to those threads. So as a member, he's demonstrated value within the context of the nominal purpose for this bbs.
In addition, he's avoided ( as far as l can tell ) any sort of forbidden activity which would trigger suspension or banning.
As odious, ignorant and insensitive as his postings are, they are the only available means for presenting his opinion, and as such he has as much right to post them as anyone else who is posting to present their opinion.
As long as he continues to play by the rules, he has as much say as any other regular member, which is exactly how it should be.
Whereas in my view the tone he uses here can also be found, in less virile form, in a lot of other places. There's a kind of disdain for most things that don't please him sufficiently that has long been an annoyance.
It's just that here it gets coupled with odious views on something important. When he's shitting all over music or films or whatever, we all know it's of no real consequence.
Including Todd, who in those circumstances doesn't feel the need to shit all over THE FORUM AND ITS MEMBERS the way he does here from time to time telling us how trivial we all are. Before anyone advocates for Todd's value to the forum, consider the number of times on this thread that Todd has commented on how valueless he finds the forum.
He belittles this discussion (that he is also largely trying to drive) on a very regular basis. I say let's grant him the mercy of not having to deal with such trivial meaningless people any more. He won't be forced to keep posting in a conversation he keeps telling us is inconsequential, and none of us will need to read the stuff he keeps telling us is inconsequential. Everybody wins.
Ernie: The US won't negotiate a chunk of Ukraine away.
That crazy little thing called sovereignty.
Moldova is supposed to be next on the list according to Russian FM Lavrov.
Russia rarely innovates away from its familiar ruses. One should expect a provocation in Transnistria. Moldovan intelligence says about a thousand young and middle aged men have arrived recently.
I take it Transnistria is not the kind of place where a thousand of anybody arrives.
Should we start the Moldovan negotiations now, just in case?
Quote from: drogulus on February 02, 2023, 02:14:42 PMMoldova is supposed to be next on the list according to Russian FM Lavrov.
Russia rarely innovates away from its familiar ruses. One should expect a provocation in Transnistria. Moldovan intelligence says about a thousand young and middle aged men have arrived recently.
I take it Transnistria is not the kind of place where a thousand of anybody arrives.
Hmm. Earlier I was hearing Kazakhstan.
Russia doesn't share a border with Moldova so I'm wondering how they get there. Is it a march across the rest of Ukraine or a bunch of ships coming from Crimea?
Quote from: Madiel on February 02, 2023, 02:38:31 PMHmm. Earlier I was hearing Kazakhstan.
Russia doesn't share a border with Moldova so I'm wondering how they get there. Is it a march across the rest of Ukraine or a bunch of ships coming from Crimea?
It's a little odd since the original plan to link up across the south hasn't panned out. It's odd in another way as it tends to make TuckerPutiny notions about how Europe should deliver up chunks of itself to Russia because, well,
reasons look even shittier, if you can imagine that. I wouldn't have thought it possible, but Lavrov has genuine skills in that regard.
Quote from: drogulus on February 02, 2023, 02:46:08 PMIt's a little odd since the original plan to link up across the south hasn't panned out. It's odd in another way as it tends to make TuckerPutiny notions about how Europe should deliver up chunks of itself to Russia because, well, reasons look even shittier, if you can imagine that. I wouldn't have thought it possible, but Lavrov has genuine skills in that regard.
I'm familiar with Lavrov's capacity to bark things out that don't make a lot of sense, yes.
Really, when the justification for invading a country led by a Russian-speaking Jew is that Ukrainian nationalist Nazis are in control, the standards are already pretty darn low.
Quote from: Madiel on February 02, 2023, 02:38:31 PMRussia doesn't share a border with Moldova so I'm wondering how they get there. Is it a march across the rest of Ukraine or a bunch of ships coming from Crimea?
Moldova is landlocked.
I think the probability of Russia invading Moldova is highly unlikely.
Quote from: Florestan on February 02, 2023, 11:09:53 PMMoldova is landlocked.
Excellent point that I had quite forgotten. But maybe they can sneak up the Dniester.
Quote from: Madiel on February 02, 2023, 11:23:17 AMHe belittles this discussion (that he is also largely trying to drive) on a very regular basis. I say let's grant him the mercy of not having to deal with such trivial meaningless people any more. He won't be forced to keep posting in a conversation he keeps telling us is inconsequential, and none of us will need to read the stuff he keeps telling us is inconsequential. Everybody wins.
In my opinion, there is one and only one solution to the Todd problem: we should all (and I mean
all) stop replying to his posts. There really is no other way.
Quote from: Florestan on February 03, 2023, 02:10:46 AMIn my opinion, there is one and only one solution to the Todd problem: we should all (and I mean all) stop replying to his posts. There really is no other way.
Well there is another way. Kicking him out. Your way is fine as well if everyone can stick to it.
Quote from: Florestan on February 03, 2023, 02:10:46 AMIn my opinion, there is one and only one solution to the Todd problem: we should all (and I mean all) stop replying to his posts. There really is no other way.
Yes, I can't but say it again and again: Put him on your ignore list as I have done.
Why the West's oil sanctions on Russia are proving to be underwhelming (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/02/01/why-the-wests-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-proving-to-be-underwhelming)
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/341/90/media-assets/image/20230204_LDC620.png)
Quote from: The Economist...The problem, however, is that price-reporting agencies have not adapted their methods to a world in which Russian oil no longer sells through channels they can observe. Whereas European refiners and traders used to share data with price-trackers, Indian ones do not. Agencies also used to rely on publicly available indicators to estimate shipping costs between Russia's western ports and European oil terminals. Rates for ferrying oil from Russia to Asia, by contrast, are set in private...
Even more striking is the extent to which Russia's export machine has become less reliant on the West's shipping and financing infrastructure, and has therefore escaped the scope of sanctions. As we report this week, a shadow trade that uses a parallel system is booming. Before December, more than half of western Russian crude was handled by a European shipping or financing firm. That share has since fallen to 36%...
Some things persist after wars end.
Quote from: Todd on February 03, 2023, 03:56:46 AMWhy the West's oil sanctions on Russia are proving to be underwhelming (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/02/01/why-the-wests-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-proving-to-be-underwhelming)
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/400/341/90/media-assets/image/20230204_LDC620.png)
Not really surprising unfortunately. Russia is offer oil to China and India at bargain prices.
China and India feel they don't have much to win/lose in the Ukrainian conflict: but the long run might prove then wrong in case of a Russian "victory".
Quote from: Fëanor on February 03, 2023, 05:15:15 AMChina and India feel they don't have much to win/lose in the Ukrainian conflict: but the long run might prove then wrong in case of a Russian "victory".
You clearly missed the most important bit of the story.
Quote from: premont on February 03, 2023, 03:44:55 AMYes, I can't but say it again and again: Put him on your ignore list as I have done.
I won't put him on my ignore list. I will simpy stop replying to his posts in this thread once and for all, which amounts to the same thing.
Quote from: Madiel on February 03, 2023, 02:18:15 AMWell there is another way. Kicking him out.
I'm not in favor of such a radical move, not least because kicking him out would only encourage and empower him to consider himself a victim of censorship, which would of course be incorrect (pun): he deserves being kicked out not for
what he says in this thread but for
how he says it. I do think a reprimand from the mods in this respect is long due -- but kicking him out of the forum altogether would be unjustified. Plus, I am one of those who think that his contributions in the non-political threads are valuable and I wouldn't like to see them discontinued.
The only person ever to be kicked out of GMG was the late M Forever, may God rest him in peace. There are two differences between him and Todd, though: on M Forever's side, he always justified his position and views in lengthy posts which were thoughtfully written and contained no links or copy-pasted paragraphs and rarely resorted to snide one-liners or the annoying-as-fuck-and-hell "Incorrect."; on Todd's side, he displays his gratuitous sarcasm in political threads only.
I'm sure, though, that given the generally lax and tolerant GMG moderation, M Forever must have really pissed off the mods big time. I suspect Todd is not in the same position.
EDIT: I really wish it were possible for a member to be banned only from certain threads. Back in the days when the USA politics thread was open and, despite my resolution not to post anymore, I kept on posting and posting, I even asked the mods to ban me from it only --- but alas!, it's not possible. I still think it would be a most useful feature: if you didn't want to post in a thread anymore but you can't help but posting, you would ask the mods to ban you from that thread only.
QuoteYour way is fine as well if everyone can stick to it.
It would certainly be a good and welcome exercise in self-restrain for all of us.
Well that isn't actually the only person to ever be kicked out, but let's not dwell on such joys.
Quote from: Madiel on February 03, 2023, 11:26:15 AMWell that isn't actually the only person to ever be kicked out, but let's not dwell on such joys.
Agreed. There's more to life than Todd.
Quote from: Madiel on February 03, 2023, 01:34:43 AMExcellent point that I had quite forgotten. But maybe they can sneak up the Dniester.
I am absolutely sure that Ukrainians will set up a welcome party for the Russians sneaking up the
Dniester (Romanian
Nistru, hence
Transnistria). ;D
Mines, anyone?
Quote from: Florestan on February 03, 2023, 02:10:46 AMIn my opinion, there is one and only one solution to the Todd problem: we should all (and I mean all) stop replying to his posts. There really is no other way.
As long as some GMGers read his posts there will be some who want to react upon them. The only solution is to avoid reading his posts = putting him on ones ignore list.
I'm fine with Russia selling oil at an underwhelming profit. That's what the price cap is for. India gets cheap oil and has no beef with the sanctioneers. I wish I'd thought of it.
Cheap oil doesn't help Russia enough to matter. The point is the profits they are denied.
WSJ
A European Union oil embargo and a U.S.-led price cap have upended how Russia gets its oil to market. The price cap forbids Western shippers and insurers from dealing with Russian crude that trades above a $60 a barrel. Many tanker owners have opted to stay away from the Russian market completely. Russian oil now sells mostly to buyers in Asia, requiring much longer sailings compared with Europe.
The resiliency of Russian oil exports indicates that the price cap is working as intended, preventing a surge in oil prices from the European embargo while complicating Moscow's ability to make top dollar on its exports.
India can say they are not observing the price cap. They'll still buy at subsidized prices which amounts to the same thing.
Quote from: premont on February 03, 2023, 01:47:05 PMAs long as some GMGers read his posts there will be some who want to react upon them.
That's the idea: do not react anymore.
Quote from: Florestan on February 03, 2023, 07:19:46 AMsnide one-liners or the annoying-as-fuck-and-hell "Incorrect."; on Todd's side, he displays his gratuitous sarcasm in political threads only.
Not sure the latter is entirely true, but I'm wondering, why does "Incorrect" bug you so much? A one-word post is skipped more easily.
Quote from: Florestan on February 03, 2023, 07:19:46 AMI'm sure, though, that given the generally lax and tolerant GMG moderation, M Forever must have really pissed off the mods big time. I suspect Todd is not in the same position.
Way back in the early GMG days Todd used to be a moderator (as was I). This may or may not make a difference.
However, Just skipping toddposts is the easy and most effective solution.
Quote from: Herman on February 03, 2023, 11:10:55 PMI'm wondering, why does "Incorrect" bug you so much? A one-word post is skipped more easily.
I would have thought it fairly obvious most people consider message boards to be a form of conversation. It's not a blog or Twitter where you can skip the boring parts of someone's monologue.
And my personal experience (including just a couple of days ago in a different context) is that trying to have a text-based conversation with someone who only gives one-word responses, and ones that are deliberately designed to
shut down conversation at that... is annoying as fuck.
So yes, if you're not trying to talk to Todd, "Incorrect" is easy to skip. But if you're trying to actually have a discussion about the war in Ukraine, which is the reason why most people are reading this thread, then "Incorrect" is a deliberate negation of that intent. Or imagine a TV panel show where one of the people ostensibly discussing the topic just says "Incorrect". Sure, it doesn't take much air time, but I bet you you would end up wanting to throw things at the television.
Quote from: Madiel on February 04, 2023, 01:20:29 AMSo yes, if you're not trying to talk to Todd, "Incorrect" is easy to skip. But if you're trying to actually have a discussion about the war in Ukraine, which is the reason why most people are reading this thread, then "Incorrect" is a deliberate negation of that intent.
I know, Madiel, however it's been clear for a long time that it is not possible to have a discussion with him; it's all about one-upmanship for him and ridiculing the other participants, which is why for most of the time this topic is not so much a discussion of the war in ukraine as a 'fight todd' or 'todd fights ebbody else' thing.
Quote from: Herman on February 04, 2023, 03:10:28 AMI know, Madiel, however it's been clear for a long time that it is not possible to have a discussion with him; it's all about one-upmanship for him and ridiculing the other participants, which is why for most of the time this topic is not so much a discussion of the war in ukraine as a 'fight todd' or 'todd fights ebbody else' thing.
And this is why my preferred solution is to kick him the hell out.
Germany Has Evidence of War Crimes in Ukraine 'In Three-Digit Range' - Prosecutor (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-04/germany-has-evidence-of-war-crimes-in-ukraine-in-three-digit-range-prosecutor)
I'd surely like to see what is meant by "three-digit range". It would seem to me that it would be higher. It is also clear that the count will only go up as the war continues and the West continues its cold-blooded policy of sacrificing Ukrainian lives to weaken Russia in furtherance of explictly stated US policy.
Quote from: Madiel on February 04, 2023, 03:37:08 AMAnd this is why my preferred solution is to kick him the hell out.
It seems odd to demand someone kicked out of a forum like this, which has a generally laissez-faire approach to moderation, because he or she is annoying without explicitly breaking any rules, just because some people are incapable of restraining themselves from reading or replying.
From the NIH: Censoring political opposition online: Who does it and why (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7415017/)
Conclusion:
Quote from: Ashwini Ashokkumar, et alContemporary pundits often blame the apparent increase in polarization on "the internet" or "social media." Researchers have found some basis for such assertions by demonstrating that internet users are indeed selectively exposed to evidence that would lend support to their views. Our findings move beyond this literature by demonstrating that moderators employ censorship to not only bring online content into harmony with their values, but to actively advance their causes and attack opponents of their causes. From this vantage point, those whose political beliefs are rooted in their identities are not passive participants in online polarization; rather, they are agentic actors who actively curate online environments by censoring content that challenges their ideological positions. By providing a window into the psychological processes underlying these processes, our research may open up a broader vista of related processes for systematic study
Some people want to interact in echo chambers.
Quote from: Todd on February 04, 2023, 04:56:10 AMGermany Has Evidence of War Crimes in Ukraine 'In Three-Digit Range' - Prosecutor (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-04/germany-has-evidence-of-war-crimes-in-ukraine-in-three-digit-range-prosecutor)
I'd surely like to see what is meant by "three-digit range". It would seem to me that it would be higher. It is also clear that the count will only go up as the war continues and the West continues its cold-blooded policy of sacrificing Ukrainian lives to weaken Russia in furtherance of explictly stated US policy.
Whataboutism.
Quote from: Todd on February 03, 2023, 05:25:27 AMYou clearly missed the most important bit of the story.
Different customers, different means.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 04, 2023, 07:39:11 AMWhataboutism.
Fundamentally incorrect.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 04, 2023, 07:40:10 AMDifferent customers, different means.
It's rather more than just different means.
Quote from: Herman on February 03, 2023, 11:10:55 PMwhy does "Incorrect" bug you so much?
Because "Incorrect" full stop betrays a fundamental disdain of one's opponent. If "Incorrect" were followed by a thoughtful explanation of why it was incorrect, I'd have nothing to complain about.
Quote from: Herman on February 03, 2023, 11:10:55 PMTodd used to be a moderator
OMG!
In my book, "Todd as moderator" is the exact equivalent of "Nietzsche as Germanophile".
Quote from: Florestan on February 04, 2023, 08:17:44 AMIn my book, "Todd as moderator" is the exact equivalent of "Nietzsche as Germanophile".
Can you elaborate on what you clearly think of as a clever post? If not, that's fine.
China Helping Russia's War With Ukraine With Military Aid—Violating Sanctions—Reports Show (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/02/04/china-helping-russias-war-with-ukraine-with-military-aid-violating-sanctions-reports-show/?sh=5303b7cd6fb9)
Hmmm. A national security threat in the form of a terrifying balloon, and now this. This is how wars escalate.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 04, 2023, 07:03:14 AMIt seems odd to demand someone kicked out of a forum like this, which has a generally laissez-faire approach to moderation, because he or she is annoying without explicitly breaking any rules, just because some people are incapable of restraining themselves from reading or replying.
Well I guess that we don't have an explicit rule against advocating, say, poisoning children because we didn't imagine anyone was going to do it. While I write laws for a living, I'm not in this situation going and checking what the rules say. We have a member who is derailing a conversation, advocating quite horrible positions on a topic, and explicitly saying how useless and pathetic the forum and its members are. If none of the rules cover that then it's time to fix the rules and/or to ask exactly why it is you need rules to tell people something as obvious as the last of those in particular.
Quote from: Florestan on February 04, 2023, 08:17:44 AMOMG!
In my book, "Todd as moderator" is the exact equivalent of "Nietzsche as Germanophile".
It's certainly
an interesting data point.
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 04, 2023, 11:08:38 AMIt's certainly an interesting data point.
Surely you were around at that time?
Quote from: Florestan on February 04, 2023, 08:15:16 AMBecause "Incorrect" full stop betrays a fundamental disdain of one's opponent.
well, but that's his entire point, and to get mad about it only gives him satisfaction.
so don't. just ignore.
A stink of corruption in Ukraine: the bad smell coming out of Kyiv (https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/europe/959525/a-stink-of-corruption-the-bad-smell-coming-out-of-kyiv)
Best headline of the week. Time's corrupt Puppet of the Year is doing some more housecleaning before an upcoming meeting with EU leaders.
Note that The Week is described by Media Bias Fact Check and All Sides as "Left" and as delivering factual reporting.
One thing that definitely should not happen is an audit of the lucre bequeathed to the new Bastion of Democracy.
Quote from: Herman on February 04, 2023, 06:51:19 PMSurely you were around at that time?
Not sure,
@Herman ... I don't seem to have any recollection of his being a mod. Could be an item that dropped out of my brain in my stroke....
From The Week, a notoriuosly facty leftist rag:
'Keeping officials under a magnifying glass'
There's some good news in all this, said Yulia Lavryshyn on Zn.Ua (Kyiv). The war may have provided cover for crooks, but the slew of media revelations that has brought about the ousting of these officials shows that Ukraine's free press is well capable of "keeping officials under a magnifying glass" even in the present dire circumstances.
Ordinary Ukrainians are understandably furious that graft remains so prevalent in their country, said Stefan Wolff and Tatyana Malyarenko on The Conversation (Melbourne). Ukraine's economy is being battered by the war, and while these people are feasting on public funds most people are struggling to survive.
But few hold Zelenskyy responsible for the ongoing scandals: his approval ratings remain sky high and most people back him to make good on his prewar promises to root out wrongdoing. It's imperative he does so. Last week's welcome news that both Germany and the US will send tanks to Ukraine was "clearly linked" to Zelenskyy's new anti-graft initiative. How well he manages to solve the corruption problems will determine the shape of Ukraine's postwar future.
So Zelensky is a puppet of Western anti-corruption mongers? Say it ain't so!!
As previously noted, Zelenskyy has been talking about corruption since he was a fictional President. It's a major theme, arguably THE major theme, of Servant of the People.
Arguing with an editors click-bait headline instead of reading the reporters actual text is the kind of semiliterate dullard behavior that Todd used to be above.
Quote from: SimonNZ on February 05, 2023, 12:42:33 PMArguing with an editors click-bait headline instead of reading the reporters actual text is the kind of semiliterate dullard behavior that Todd used to be above.
I almost don't remember that bygone era ....
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 05, 2023, 08:59:14 AMNot sure, @Herman ... I don't seem to have any recollection of his being a mod. Could be an item that dropped out of my brain in my stroke....
I certainly have no recollection of it.
The Myth of Todd.
Quote from: JBS on February 05, 2023, 04:25:02 PMI certainly have no recollection of it.
It's twenty years ago
Quote from: Herman on February 05, 2023, 10:31:22 PMIt's twenty years ago
That's more than enough time to have lost its relevance. Unless it somehow explains his descent.
Quote from: Herman on February 05, 2023, 10:31:22 PMIt's twenty years ago
It must have been in the old forum which is inaccessible today, so we can't go back and check it. I was here in these old days but don't remember anything about whom the moderators were. I wonder if GURN may refresh our memory?
Quote from: premont on February 06, 2023, 12:05:58 AMIt must have been in the old forum which is inaccessible today, so we can't go back and check it.
You want to check it for factual truth?
Why would I be making this up?
The first set of mods comprised, as I seem to recall, Gurn, Todd, Knight, me and perhaps a fifth member.
This was a time when The Pink Harp was about the most disruptive member...
I mentioned this because I could imagine it makes for a kind of clemency towards the troll (although the interminable LvB sonata topix may be a factor, too)
Quote from: Herman on February 06, 2023, 12:14:22 AMYou want to check it for factual truth?
Why would I be making this up?
The first set of mods comprised, as I seem to recall, Gurn, Todd, Knight, me and perhaps a fifth member.
This was a time when The Pink Harp was about the most disruptive
Take it easy. I'm not saying that you are making something up, and since nobody else here recall anything about Todd having been a moderator we probably have a faulty memory. Excuse me that I took some time to realize this.
I recall Pink Harp rather well BTW.
Quote from: Herman on February 06, 2023, 12:14:22 AMI mentioned this because I could imagine it makes for a kind of clemency towards the troll ...
I don't see the relevance here. He can't even moderate himself.
Quote from: premont on February 06, 2023, 01:03:24 AMI don't see the relevance here. He can't even moderate himself.
The relevance (if any) would be that the current mods would feel reluctant to ban a member that goes back that far and has been one of them long time ago.
But this is all speculation.
I'm not in favor of banning btw.
UN chief fears world is heading toward a wider war (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-united-nations-antonio-guterres-1c735007b903d8129a22c6493f332e3a)
Quote from: Antonio GuterresI fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war. It is doing so with its eyes wide open.
Tony's right. Warmongers the world over openly insist on escalating the Russo-Ukrainian war.
I think we can all agree that if Todd doesn't resist my sale of his house things will be a lot more peaceful.
From the Financial Times: A problem of logistics: is the US sending Ukraine the wrong tank? (https://www.ft.com/content/679ba852-1d7e-4d17-890d-2bc6152c96b0)
From Newsweek: The Weight of NATO Tanks May Pose a Problem in Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/nato-tanks-abrams-challenger-2-leopard-2-weight-ukraine-1779040)
White House says blog post on Nord Stream explosion 'utterly false' (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-says-blog-post-nord-stream-explosion-is-utterly-false-2023-02-08/)
The blog post from Seymour Hersh:
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline (https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream)
Quote from: Todd on February 08, 2023, 10:45:37 AMWhite House says blog post on Nord Stream explosion 'utterly false' (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-says-blog-post-nord-stream-explosion-is-utterly-false-2023-02-08/)
The blog post from Seymour Hersh:
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline (https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream)
Self published, apparently no major news putlet wanted to burn its fingers on this.
Never say never, but it would surprise me: even though the disablement of the connection was politically convenient, sabotage would be terribly risky. European allies are not idiots. And Russia accused the British...why not the US?
Quote from: Que on February 09, 2023, 01:01:06 AMSelf published, apparently no major news putlet wanted to burn its fingers on this.
Sure, but the corporate press is untrustworthy.
Quote from: Que on February 09, 2023, 01:01:06 AMNever say never, but it would surprise me: even though the disablement of the connection was politically convenient, sabotage would be terribly risky.
Risky or not, some country or countries did it. Reflexive Russophobes seriously blamed Russia for the action, though even the corporate press now reports there is no evidence for that. We may know the truth one day.
Quote from: Que on February 09, 2023, 01:01:06 AMNever say never, but it would surprise me: even though the disablement of the connection was politically convenient, sabotage would be terribly risky. European allies are not idiots. And Russia accused the British...why not the US?
It's plausible to argue that the USA would like to see the pipeline destroyed. For a start, US Presidents always opposed the pipeline because it would give Russia suasion over Germany,
et al., (which is perfectly true).
But that the USA actually did it is another matter. For one, as you say, there was/is the risk of being caught. For another, I wonder about the timing for US a sabotage: was it good? Or was is bad? The Russian invasion was already under way, and sanctions were already operative. Furthermore the pipeline was no longer actively delivering gas at the date of the explosions; (the pipes must remain pressurized to avoid damage.) Gas price rose immediately after the damage. It's fair to ask whether, at that point, Russian had little to loose and perhaps something to gain by destroying the pipeline.
Quote from: Todd on February 08, 2023, 10:45:37 AMWhite House says blog post on Nord Stream explosion 'utterly false' (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-says-blog-post-nord-stream-explosion-is-utterly-false-2023-02-08/)
The blog post from Seymour Hersh:
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline (https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream)
That was quite a read. I wonder if there will be any repercussions to this or if it will be ignored.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 09, 2023, 04:50:44 AMIt's plausible to argue that the USA would like to see the pipeline destroyed.
People here apparently need a refresher direct from POTUS:
And the official response, from Ukraine policy architect Victoria Nuland, is rather celebratory.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 09, 2023, 04:50:44 AMIt's plausible to argue that the USA would like to see the pipeline destroyed. For a start, US Presidents always opposed the pipeline because it would give Russia suasion over Germany, et al., (which is perfectly true).
But that the USA actually did it is another matter. For one, as you say, there was/is the risk of being caught. For another, I wonder about the timing for US a sabotage: was it good? Or was is bad? The Russian invasion was already under way, and sanctions were already operative. Furthermore the pipeline was no longer actively delivering gas at the date of the explosions; (the pipes must remain pressurized to avoid damage.) Gas price rose immediately after the damage. It's fair to ask whether, at that point, Russian had little to loose and perhaps something to gain by destroying the pipeline.
Hersh gives a lot of details and goes step by step. I assume he has sources and he does have credibility as a journalist. On the other hand, we should always be skeptical and look for other reporting. Plus, the official word is that this is pure fiction, so there's that.
Quote from: milk on February 09, 2023, 04:54:03 AMThat was quite a read. I wonder if there will be any repercussions to this or if it will be ignored.
Hersh won a Pulitzer, worked at the NYT, and so forth, so maybe other journalists follow-up. Given the reception of the Columbia Journalism Review summary of the dumpster fire that was Russiagate reporting, also written by a Pultizer Prize winning NYT guy, I have doubts. Pro-war folks will look the other way.
If the USA really did it (a possibility that I don't rule out a priori), then they committed an act of state terrorism. I doubt, though, that there'll be any official international investigation, let alone any repercussion for the USA.
Whichever country or combination of countries did it committed an act of war and state act of terrorism. Only state actors could have pulled off the operation. It's merely a matter of learning who did it. If the US did it, it will be interesting to see if moralizing folks defend America's actions. (They will.) According to Hersh, the US and Norway are responsible. Norway has, of course, enjoyed bumper profits from the sale of natural gas, which expanded when the Baltic Pipe began operations right after the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, as in the next day. It's probably all coincidence.
The bad guys did it, the good guys remain good, and the war must continue.
Anything from Seymour Hersh should be taken with several gains of salt. He's published material based on hearsay which he obtained decades after the event ( and which proved to be inaccurate ), made assertions without presenting evidence, and in interviews has maintained the right to use a different standard for accuracy when speaking, as opposed to what he writes.
Wikipedia is useful here, with the usual caveats:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymour_Hersh
Some of his early work was important and illuminating. But that was fifty years ago, and some people change significantly as they age.
Quote from: LKB on February 09, 2023, 08:14:57 AMWikipedia is useful here, with the usual caveats:
Starting with the fact that co-founder Larry Sanger says it cannot be trusted.
The rest of your post is a variant of ad hominem and therefore irrelevant.
Whichever country or combination of countries did it committed an act of war and state act of terrorism.
Quote from: Todd on February 09, 2023, 08:33:14 AMStarting with the fact that co-founder Larry Sanger says it cannot be trusted.
The rest of your post is a variant of ad hominem and therefore irrelevant.
Whichever country or combination of countries did it committed an act of war and state act of terrorism.
The U.S. and Norway seem by far the most plausible culprits here. If it's not an accurate account of what happened to the pipelines, then it's some of the cleverest and most meticulously crafted fiction I've read recently. In either case, kudos to Hersh. My money's on it being true.
Quote from: milk on February 09, 2023, 05:00:02 AMHersh gives a lot of details and goes step by step. I assume he has sources and he does have credibility as a journalist. On the other hand, we should always be skeptical and look for other reporting. Plus, the official word is that this is pure fiction, so there's that.
People give a lot of details about how the moon landing was faked and how 9/11 was an inside job. The number of details merely indicates that a lot of time was spent, not that it was spent well.
Quote from: milk on February 09, 2023, 05:00:02 AMI assume he has sources
You know what they say about
assume.
I should like to see what country or countries that people who insist the US was not involved think did it. I know at least one GMGer seriously believes Russia sabotaged Nord Stream 1 & 2, and I suspect many (or most) others do as well. The number of countries that could have pulled off such an operation is small.
One thing is certain, if/when US involvement is proven to the nebulous and ever-changing "standards" pro-war folks rely on, the US will face no consequences. Russia will not risk direct military confrontation, and the US is above international law.
Quote from: Todd on February 09, 2023, 12:05:16 PMI should like to see what country or countries that people who insist the US was not involved think did it. I know at least one GMGer seriously believes Russia sabotaged Nord Stream 1 & 2, and I suspect many (or most) others do as well. The number of countries that could have pulled off such an operation is small.
One thing is certain, if/when US involvement is proven to the nebulous and ever-changing "standards" pro-war folks rely on, the US will face no consequences. Russia will not risk direct military confrontation, and the US is above international law.
I'd say this assessment is correct. I'm just amazed that Biden et alia managed to be so ruthlessly efficient and purposeful in flouting it. If I were Germany I'd be really pissed about now.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeZS1RfagAEpcS6?format=jpg&name=900x900)
A repurposed Joan Cornellà cartoon making the rounds.
Sy Hersch used to be a reputable journalist, but that was a long time ago. He seems to be one of those folks who couldn't get past the habit of seeing the West as always the worst actor in their cosmology no matter how much the world has changed around them.
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2023/02/quite-a-story-from-a-single-anonymous-source
Quote from: Madiel on February 09, 2023, 11:29:07 AMPeople give a lot of details about how the moon landing was faked and how 9/11 was an inside job. The number of details merely indicates that a lot of time was spent, not that it was spent well.
Yes that's true. And his credibility has taken hits over the years. It'd be better to get the story confirmed from somewhere else.
To be frank the whole pipeline thing doesn't make a huge amount of sense no matter who did it. It was not actually being used and there was no short term prospect of it being used.
Quote from: milk on February 09, 2023, 03:04:06 PMYes that's true. And his credibility has taken hits over the years. It'd be better to get the story confirmed from somewhere else.
Absolutely. Better yet, maybe an independent, multi-national investigation under the auspices of, say, the UN could get to the bottom of it. Maybe send the people who looked for WMD.
Quote from: Todd on February 09, 2023, 01:19:21 PM(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeZS1RfagAEpcS6?format=jpg&name=900x900)
If somebody gets this could they explain it to me?
Quote from: SimonNZ on February 09, 2023, 03:51:29 PMIf somebody gets this could they explain it to me?
Germany hostage to Russian gas supplies, etc etc.
Of course it's the Germans who actually had already said no to using the pipeline. As I've pointed out. So the narrative doesn't work.
Quote from: Madiel on February 09, 2023, 04:53:04 PMOf course it's the Germans who actually had already said no to using the pipeline.
Well, darn those
vassals, anyhow!
Quote from: Todd on February 09, 2023, 03:30:05 PMAbsolutely. Better yet, maybe an independent, multi-national investigation under the auspices of, say, the UN could get to the bottom of it. Maybe send the people who looked for WMD.
;)
I honestly can't tell if this means Todd believes there really were weapons of mass destruction, and people were stupid not to find them.
Or whether he agrees that there weren't weapons of mass destruction and is commenting on how the wild accusations that they existed were wrong, and that throwing reckless accusations around at countries is a really bad idea.
Or whether he didn't actually think the comparison through before making it.
From Reuters: Russia strikes Ukrainian power grid and advances in the east (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-vows-changes-will-bolster-ukraine-amid-defence-minister-uncertainty-2023-02-06/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=021023)
The article mentions how the artillery battles are called "meat grinders". No prob for the brave Ukrainians. Don't even think about pushing for a negotiated settlement. Grind away.
Quote from: Madiel on February 09, 2023, 03:19:23 PMTo be frank the whole pipeline thing doesn't make a huge amount of sense no matter who did it. It was not actually being used and there was no short term prospect of it being used.
As I've posted before, it makes sense. There is not motive for Russia. They turned off the gas in order to blackmail the E.U., "we won't turn on that sweet gas until you stop supporting Ukraine." Destroying the pipeline takes away the blackmail leverage, since now they can't turn it on.
But it would make sense for Ukraine. "Our allies will abandon us to get their gas back, let's destroy the pipeline so they can't get their gas back no matter what, taking away that temptation." It would also make some sense for some actor who doesn't want to give in to Russian expansion. I doubt the U.S. did it, getting caught would be too embarrassing and risk fracturing the coalition supporting Ukraine.
I wouldn't put it past Ukraine's capabilities. A commercial undersea drone could reach the pipeline, and they'd just have to attach a big bomb to it.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 10, 2023, 07:54:54 AMA commercial undersea drone could reach the pipeline, and they'd just have to attach a big bomb to it.
How do you know this?
Quote from: Todd on February 10, 2023, 07:55:56 AMHow do you know this?
A quick google search turned up commercial undersea drones with depth range up to 1000 ft. I did not manage to find out the depth of the site of the explosion, but the Baltic Sea is not very deep.
I only suggest it as something that can't be ruled out. Given the creativity the Ukrainians have displayed using jury-rigged technology against Russian forces, I wouldn't put it past them.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 10, 2023, 07:54:54 AMBut it would make sense for Ukraine. "Our allies will abandon us to get their gas back, let's destroy the pipeline so they can't get their gas back no matter what, taking away that temptation." It would also make some sense for some actor who doesn't want to give in to Russian expansion. I doubt the U.S. did it, getting caught would be too embarrassing and risk fracturing the coalition supporting Ukraine.
I wouldn't put it past Ukraine's capabilities. A commercial undersea drone could reach the pipeline, and they'd just have to attach a big bomb to it.
Ukraine has motive of course. But they would operate this drone from where exactly? And if they have this capability, one would think Russia's Black Sea Fleet might be a more obvious and accessible target, no?
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 10, 2023, 08:02:26 AMA quick google search turned up commercial undersea drones with depth range up to 1000 ft. I did not manage to find out the depth of the site of the explosion, but the Baltic Sea is not very deep.
According to the Hersh essay, 260 feet if memory serves.
Quote from: BasilValentine on February 10, 2023, 08:08:13 AMUkraine has motive of course. But they would operate this drone from where exactly? And if they have this capability, one would think Russia's Black Sea Fleet might be a more obvious and accessible target, no?
They have successfully attacked the Black Sea fleet with drones (airborne), but once they've gotten away with that the Russians would have learned their lesson and made it harder to repeat.
They would need a substantial boat to deploy the drone and attached bomb. They would need help I would think. Maybe a substantial fishing boat would be sufficient.
Maybe the drone only needs to locate the cable and guide the dropping of a depth charge. Maybe they make a torpedo that hones in on a sonar source and the drone just finds the cable and drops a sonata source next to it. All speculation, of course. The Ukrainian military has shown itself to be very skillful.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 10, 2023, 08:02:26 AMA quick google search turned up commercial undersea drones with depth range up to 1000 ft. I did not manage to find out the depth of the site of the explosion, but the Baltic Sea is not very deep.
It's not deep, but it's deep enough that experts would be needed to carry out the operation. Even if it is assumed that Ukraine has or could hire such experts, they would have to operate from either NATO land or their own or NATO ships. The latter would potentially run afoul of NATO or Russian patrols, since the Baltic is patrolled rather heavily.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 10, 2023, 08:02:26 AMI only suggest it as something that can't be ruled out. Given the creativity the Ukrainians have displayed using jury-rigged technology against Russian forces, I wouldn't put it past them.
It's certainly possible, but it would lead to questions as to why the Ukrainians have not sabotaged the pipelines that run through Ukraine. Indeed, more gas has been pumped through that pipeline network recently: Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine rises (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-europe-via-ukraine-transit-rises-2023-02-01/). One would think that if the goal is maximum economic damage, the Ukrainians would have destroyed the pipeline network in their own country. Of course, that may be a red line that would result in more severe Russian actions, and of course, Ukraine rakes in billions in fees from Russia even now for access to the network. Maybe Ukraine just wanted to take out a potential competitor. That would indicate impure motives, though.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 10, 2023, 08:17:51 AMMaybe the drone only needs to locate the cable and guide the dropping of a depth charge. Maybe they make a torpedo that hones in on a sonar source and the drone just finds the cable and drops a sonata source next to it. All speculation, of course. The Ukrainian military has shown itself to be very skillful.
Four pipelines were destroyed or damaged. It was a complex operation.
In any event, whatever country or group of countries did it committed an act of war and a state act of terrorism.
I favor negotiations, not in the abstract but as a means to end the fighting when Ukraine secures its territory.
I don't see how Russia can be negotiated out of meat grindering. The TuckerPutinist position looks like a reward for what Russia is doing. Look, they're meat grindering!! Negotiate to make them stop!
Why not just give them what they want if your negotiation strategy is to give them what they want? Why bother? Just order the Puppet to surrender. He's a Puppet so he will, right?
Quote from: Spotted Horses on February 10, 2023, 07:54:54 AMAs I've posted before, it makes sense. There is not motive for Russia. They turned off the gas in order to blackmail the E.U., "we won't turn on that sweet gas until you stop supporting Ukraine." Destroying the pipeline takes away the blackmail leverage, since now they can't turn it on.
But it would make sense for Ukraine. "Our allies will abandon us to get their gas back, let's destroy the pipeline so they can't get their gas back no matter what, taking away that temptation." It would also make some sense for some actor who doesn't want to give in to Russian expansion. I doubt the U.S. did it, getting caught would be too embarrassing and risk fracturing the coalition supporting Ukraine.
I wouldn't put it past Ukraine's capabilities. A commercial undersea drone could reach the pipeline, and they'd just have to attach a big bomb to it.
I hadn't really thought of Ukraine as an option given the location, but okay.
Quote from: drogulus on February 10, 2023, 10:28:36 AMI favor negotiations, not in the abstract but as a means to end the fighting when Ukraine secures its territory.
I don't see how Russia can be negotiated out of meat grindering. The TuckerPutinist position looks like a reward for what Russia is doing. Look, they're meat grindering!! Negotiate to make them stop!
Why not just give them what they want if your negotiation strategy is to give them what they want? Why bother? Just order the Puppet to surrender. He's a Puppet so he will, right?
Exactly. Neither Ukraine not its western allies are responsible for Putin's decisions on what he does with Russian soldiers.
BTW reports are that Russian losses - in destroyed equipment and casualties - are extraordinarily high while advances are only incremental.
Putin and his generals are just following Russian military tradition in which soldiers are expendable. Stalin wasted the lives of literally millions of Russian soldiers.
Quote from: absolutelybaching on February 10, 2023, 10:52:51 AMI'd say the latest news from Moldova is not good.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64595322
These are the sorts of things 'blowing in the wind' that presage no good to anyone.
Well, gentlemen, what did you exoect?
Moldova is a small artificial state which would have never existed were it not for
Russian / USSR imperialism. The only difference between them and
Ukraine is that
Ukraine is a very large artificial state which would have never existed were it not for
Russian / USSR imperialism.
That being said, I'm all in favor of both
Moldova and
Ukraine keeping their existence as independent states.
I've said in the past and I will say it again: if a referendum would be held regarding the union of
Moldova with
Romania, I'd vote against.
Perhaps my imagination is merely being hyperactive, but it's easy to envision a Russian incursion resulting from the fall of Moldova's government. Perhaps Putin would try to explain it away as a " helpful " attempt to " stabilize " matters and " maintain order "...
Quote from: LKB on February 11, 2023, 07:27:38 AMPerhaps my imagination is merely being hyperactive, but it's easy to envision a Russian incursion resulting from the fall of Moldova's government. Perhaps Putin would try to explain it away as a " helpful " attempt to " stabilize " matters and " maintain order "...
Moldova is a landlocked country which has no border with Russia. They have borders with Ukraine and Romania only.
Take that, Putin!
Quote from: Florestan on February 11, 2023, 07:36:37 AMMoldova is a landlocked country which has no border with Russia. They have borders with Ukraine and Romania only.
Take that, Putin!
Unfortunately, Russia could conceivably mount an airborne incursion into Moldova from Southern Ukraine.
And the more l think about it, the more sense it makes.
Quote from: Florestan on February 11, 2023, 06:49:07 AMWell, gentlemen, what did you exoect? Moldova is a small artificial state which would have never existed were it not for Russian / USSR imperialism. The only difference between them and Ukraine is that Ukraine is a very large artificial state which would have never existed were it not for Russian / USSR imperialism.
That being said, I'm all in favor of both Moldova and Ukraine keeping their existence as independent states.
I've said in the past and I will say it again: if a referendum would be held regarding the union of Moldova with Romania, I'd vote against.
So you agree with the Russian view that Ukraine is not a real country? Well that's an interesting turn of events.
QuoteYevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said it could take two years for Russia to fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, two regions whose capture Moscow has stated as a key goal of the war.
In a video published on Friday with the Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov, reported by Reuters, Prigozhin said:
As far as I understand, we need to close off the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and in principle that will suit everyone for now.
That could take one and a half to two years, he said.
Quite an admission... Is "one and a half to two years" Russian for NEVER? ::)
Many analists now seem to think that the new "large" Russian offensive is not coming. Or rather that the recent flurry of assaults is going to be it - this is what the Russian army can master. They threw in their best remaining troops and equipment on the Southern front and failed miserably. Their best tanks are positioned around Kreminna, with fighting still ongoing. The Ukrainians might use their recently arrived British Challenger tanks there. The siege of Bakhmut seems to grind to a halt. Russian casualties are high: from 700 to over a thousand each day.
Quote from: Madiel on February 11, 2023, 10:33:58 AMSo you agree with the Russian view that Ukraine is not a real country? Well that's an interesting turn of events.
It is a real country whose shape and and size is the result of Russian/Soviet imperialism. This doesn't mean the Russian invasion is justified.
Quote from: Florestan on February 12, 2023, 02:05:30 AMIt is a real country whose shape and and size is the result of Russian/Soviet imperialism. This doesn't mean the Russian invasion is justified.
Well most countries borders have been affected over time by these things. But I disagree with you when you say it's the same as Moldova.
Quote from: Que on February 12, 2023, 12:33:19 AMRussian casualties are high: from 700 to over a thousand each day.
Is this a case where there are 700-1000+ Russian casualties per day and 0-50 Ukrainian casualties per day?
Quote from: Madiel on February 12, 2023, 02:21:18 AMWell most countries borders have been affected over time by these things. But I disagree with you when you say it's the same as Moldova.
I admit I exaggerated.
They Are Russians Fighting Against Their Homeland. Here's Why. (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/world/europe/russian-legion-ukraine-war.html)
They are called the Free Russia Legion, and they are fighting around Bakhmut under Ukrainian officers.
In interviews, some Russian soldiers said they were already living in Ukraine when Russian forces invaded last year, and felt an obligation to defend their adopted country. Others, often with no military experience, crossed into Ukraine from Russia after the war began, moved by a sense that the Kremlin's invasion was profoundly unjust.
"We haven't come here to prove anything," said one soldier with the call sign Zaza. "We've come here to help Ukraine achieve the full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory and the future de-Putinization of Russia."
Quote from: LKB on February 11, 2023, 08:27:09 AMUnfortunately, Russia could conceivably mount an airborne incursion into Moldova from Southern Ukraine.
And the more l think about it, the more sense it makes.
It's going to be a coup, and according to information Ukraine gave to Moldova the "thousand people from anywhere" will capture government buildings and take hostages. I think Russia won't send troops unless the coup succeeds.
I said before that the EU is what scares Putin, not NATO. The reason is obvious to anyone who cares to know. Moldova and Ukraine are EU bound, and if left unmolested will gain in prosperity and stability.
The military capability of NATO reveals what its purpose is. Putin doesn't fear NATO. He may hate it and certainly he's frustrated that he can't invade several countries defended by it, but he has no reason to fear it.
Russians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus
A recent statement by the leader of Donetsk People's Republic- the self-declared Russian-backed "nation": "the enemy continues to transfer reserves in large quantities, and this slowed down the liberation of this settlement."
We Await Silent Moldova's Empire
W.A.S.M.E.? Maybe the Moldovans should check for tattoos like so:
(https://i.pinimg.com/550x/07/13/73/071373cb014284ceec971adef0c2efd6.jpg)
Ukrainians have a far greater ability to replace casualties with new recruits who are being well trained and motivated to defend their country. The Ukes don't do human wave attacks like the Russians, so it's very unlikely they are suffering losses at the same rate.
'Our Losses Were Gigantic': Life in a Sacrificial Russian Assault Wave (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/world/europe/ukraine-russia-prisoners.html)
Quote from: Karl Tirebiter Henning on February 13, 2023, 08:59:22 AMRussians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus
The fun part is this. Russia is preparing incentives to bring Russians home. But as the WAPO article you refer to says:
But there has also been talk in parliament of punishing Russians who left by stripping them of their assets at home. Putin has referred to these people as "scum" and said their exit would "cleanse" the country — even though some who left did not oppose him, or the war. (https://www.good-music-guide.com/community/Smileys/classic/smiley.gif)
From WSJ: Major Russian Offensive Is Under Way in Ukraine, NATO Says: Russia is tightening its noose around Bakhmut in the country's east, Western officials say (https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-russian-offensive-is-under-way-in-ukraine-nato-says-6309cf7e)
From NATO: Secretary General calls for more support to Ukraine as NATO Defence Ministers meet (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_211700.htm)
Escalation good; settlement negotiations bad.
From Reuters: Ukraine's Zelenskiy met JPMorgan bankers over rebuilding efforts (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-met-jpmorgan-bankers-over-rebuilding-efforts-2023-02-13/)
The Russo-Ukrainian War is about nothing less than the future of Democracy!®
Here's an article I deem to be instructive for any wavering TuckerPutinists.
'They Didn't Understand Anything, but Just Spoiled People's Lives' (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-potemkin-occupation-murder-torture/672841/)
But even as they inflicted pain on the most civic-minded Ukrainians, even as they assaulted local leaders, Russian soldiers seemed not to know how to replace them. Unlike their Soviet Communist forebears, who could at least name the ideology that had driven them into Poland, or Estonia, or Romania, the modern Russian army seems to have no coherent theory of government or administration, no concrete plans to run the region, even no clear idea of the meaning of Russkiy mir, the "Russian world" that some of President Vladimir Putin's ideologues extol.
Then there's this:
After the mayors, town councilors, and other elected officials, the Ukrainians who disturb the occupiers most are volunteers: people who run charities, people who run civic organizations, people who spontaneously rush to help others. Perhaps they seem suspicious to Russian officials because their own country crushes spontaneity, independent associations, and grassroots movements.
The Russian occupiers seem to have trouble with the concept of liberty. Perhaps the US could send a few of its vast surplus of crankitarians to occupied Ukraine to explain it to them. Ukrainians seem to get the idea.
Quote from: drogulus on February 14, 2023, 10:12:02 AMHere's an article I deem to be instructive for any wavering TuckerPutinists.
'They Didn't Understand Anything, but Just Spoiled People's Lives' (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-potemkin-occupation-murder-torture/672841/)
But even as they inflicted pain on the most civic-minded Ukrainians, even as they assaulted local leaders, Russian soldiers seemed not to know how to replace them. Unlike their Soviet Communist forebears, who could at least name the ideology that had driven them into Poland, or Estonia, or Romania, the modern Russian army seems to have no coherent theory of government or administration, no concrete plans to run the region, even no clear idea of the meaning of Russkiy mir, the "Russian world" that some of President Vladimir Putin's ideologues extol.
Then there's this:
After the mayors, town councilors, and other elected officials, the Ukrainians who disturb the occupiers most are volunteers: people who run charities, people who run civic organizations, people who spontaneously rush to help others. Perhaps they seem suspicious to Russian officials because their own country crushes spontaneity, independent associations, and grassroots movements.
The Russian occupiers seem to have trouble with the concept of liberty. Perhaps the US could send a few of its vast surplus of crankitarians to occupied Ukraine to explain it to them. Ukrainians seem to get the idea.
Just brutality in the service of suppressing democracy. No wonder the TuckerPutinists, not excepting Huggy Bear, are all in.
Quote from: The AtlanticUnlike their Soviet Communist forebears, who could at least name the ideology that had driven them into Poland, or Estonia, or Romania,
This is wrong. Russia had annexed territories from Poland and Romania, and Estonia as a whole, long before Communism made its entrance, let alone USSR.
Quote from: Florestan on February 14, 2023, 10:41:28 AMThis is wrong. Russia had annexed territories from Poland and Romania, and Estonia as a whole, long before Communism made its entrance, let alone USSR.
Russian imperialism certainly predates Communist imperialism. The real novelty is the Americans who are cheering them on.
Quote from: Karl Tirebiter Henning on February 14, 2023, 10:45:45 AMRussian imperialism certainly predates Communist imperialism. The real novelty is the Americans who are cheering them on.
I'm not that sure.
John Reed and
Angela Davis predate GMG.
Emendation noted!
What Americans on this forum or anywhere are cheering on Russian imperialism, whatever that means in the current geopolitical context?
Mirror mirror on the wall...
Exclusive: Christiane Amanpour speaks with Brazil's President Lula (https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2023/02/10/luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-amanpour-brazil-us-democracy.cnn)
A nice interview with Lula. About 17'30" or so, the topic of the Ukraine War comes up. The purportedly respectable Ms Amanpour asks Lula dishonest questions premised on false choices, a standard tactic of the intelligentsia as it pertains to this war. Hey, at least Lula's out there working for peace. Maybe more principled leaders can join him.
There is only one single person in the world who could stop the war right now. His name is Vladimir Putin.
Everything else is claptrap.
Quote from: Florestan on February 14, 2023, 12:35:14 PMThere is only one single person in the world who could stop the war right now. His name is Vladimir Putin.
Everything else is claptrap.
Incorrect.
Human Rights Watch urges investigation of alleged use of land mines by Ukraine (https://www.npr.org/2023/01/31/1152743054/human-rights-watch-ukraine-landmines#:~:text=In%20a%20new%20report%2C%20Human,to%20indiscriminately%20maim%20and%20kill.)
Quote from: Julian HaydaIn a new report, Human Rights Watch suggests that Ukraine scattered so-called petal mines in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Izium. Petal mines are prohibited under the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Treaty, of which Ukraine is a signatory, because of their ability to indiscriminately maim and kill.
Will Ukraine be held to account for its war crimes?
Quote from: Todd on February 14, 2023, 03:09:14 PMHuman Rights Watch urges investigation of alleged use of land mines by Ukraine (https://www.npr.org/2023/01/31/1152743054/human-rights-watch-ukraine-landmines#:~:text=In%20a%20new%20report%2C%20Human,to%20indiscriminately%20maim%20and%20kill.)
Will Ukraine be held to account for its war crimes?
Hopefully
everyone will be held to account for their war crimes, starting with one Vladimir Vladimirovich Fuckface Putin, the one person in the world who could stop the war right now.
Quote from: Florestan on February 14, 2023, 10:41:28 AMThis is wrong. Russia had annexed territories from Poland and Romania, and Estonia as a whole, long before Communism made its entrance, let alone USSR.
No, it's not wrong. The article made no claim about what Russians understood before Communism, only the difference between the Soviet era and Russians today.
I agree that Russian imperialism is supported by TuckPutinists whatever that means in the current political context. There doesn't seem to be anything Russia could do to end that support.
TPers are not as clever as they think. The Russians did better when the campaign was run out of St. Petersburg in 2016. You'd think the US crankocracy would do better than that.
(https://gdb.rferl.org/D649F042-3DC7-485B-8AB9-230F732A875F_w1080_h608_s.jpg)
I almost miss the Russo-trolls from back in the day. At least they didn't put up a pretense of sophistication.
Quote from: Herman on February 14, 2023, 10:12:40 PMI seem to recall you had other plans?
Meaning?
I only read about 10% of Todd's posts on here, if that's what you're referring to. If that. And I know he never reads mine, so I'm not actually entering into discussion with him. I have other plans.
Quote from: LKB on February 14, 2023, 05:58:08 PMHopefully everyone will be held to account for their war crimes, starting with one Vladimir Vladimirovich Fuckface Putin, the one person in the world who could stop the war right now.
Pro-war propaganda works.
Rereading Russian Classics in the Shadow of the Ukraine War: How to reckon with the ideology of "Anna Karenina," "Eugene Onegin," and other beloved books. (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/01/30/rereading-russian-classics-in-the-shadow-of-the-ukraine-war)
Intelligentsia navel gazing from The New Yorker.
Keep the New Russian Offensive in Perspective (https://www.thebulwark.com/keep-the-new-russian-offensive-in-perspective/)
The patience of Ukraine's Western allies may be a decisive factor in the outcome of the war.Quote from: by GISELLE DONNELLYThe offensive now underway is the result of these efforts, but there is little sign of tactical innovation to be found; the slugfests around Bakhmut and Vuhledar are but smaller-scale replays of Passchendaele or Vimy Ridge in World War I. In addition to the human-wave attacks of Wagner criminals and poorly trained mobiks, the Russians have also committed reconstituted elite units, including several Marine infantry brigades, which were likewise eviscerated in short order as they struck at Ukrainian defenses. While the Russians have probed at multiple spots along the front line, there has been no sign of a major breakthrough. Bakhmut is hanging by a thread and while the town has some operational importance and its loss would complicate Ukrainian lines of communication, the cost in Russian blood exceeds its immediate military value.
Worth remembering, too, that Huggy Bear is on the side of troops continuing to commit war crimes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/us-ukraine-war-critical-moment/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/us-ukraine-war-critical-moment/)
U.S. warns Ukraine it faces a pivotal moment in war
As first anniversary nears, White House fears flow of arms may be harder to come by
"...For months, Ukraine has expended significant resources and troops defending Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region. American military analysts and planners have argued that it is unrealistic to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive to retake what the United States views as more critical territory..."
"... Last month, Zelensky's top aide, Andriy Yermak, reiterated that victory against Russia means restoring Ukraine's internationally recognized borders, "including Donbas and Crimea." Anything less is "absolutely unacceptable," he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
U.S. intelligence officials have concluded, however, that retaking the heavily fortified peninsula is beyond the capability of Ukraine's army right now, according to officials familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues. That sobering assessment has been reiterated to multiple committees on Capitol Hill over the last several weeks..."
"... Western and Ukrainian intelligence officials estimate that Russia currently has over 300,000 forces in Ukraine, up from 150,000 initially, with plans to add hundreds of thousands more. The Russian campaign in the spring could see forces pouring over the Belarusian border and cutting off supply lines in western Ukraine that Kyiv has used to bolster its military.
Even seasoned military experts see a wide range of possible outcomes in coming months, underscoring how tenuous the situation is..."
There seems to be some points of discussions amongst analists and between the US and Ukraine.
Defending Bakhmut would be a waste of resources by Ukraine. Others point out the Russians will attack somewhere anyway, do why not defend heavily fortified Bakhmut while bleeding the Russian army?
Some on the US side are signalling that Ukraine shouldn't expect to retrieve Crimea. I think this discussion is highly premature and is better left for the endgame. Ukraine might have to retake Crimea, or part of it, to create sufficient leverage at the negotiating table.
There are concerns about continued supply of weapons. This doesn't into account that Russian resources, other than the availability of unmotivated and poorly trained mobilised recruits, are still dwindling and finally reaching critical levels. And there are still a lot of stored Leopard tanks that can be patched up over the coming months. Plus there is the issue of the F16 fighter planes - plenty of those and they are in the process of replacement anyway.
I don't see a lot of reason for doom and gloom, only increasing political strain in the US over this war. Some Republicans rather waste billions and the lives of thousands of US soldiers on an illegal invasion and destabilising the Middle East than defending freedom and democracy in Europe.
Quote from: Que on February 17, 2023, 12:04:14 AMThere seems to be some points of discussions amongst analists and between the US and Ukraine.
Defending Bakhmut would be a waste of resources by Ukraine. Others point out the Russians will attack somewhere anyway, do why not defend heavily fortified Bakhmut while bleeding the Russian army?
Some on the US side are signalling that Ukraine shouldn't expect to retrieve Crimea. I think this discussion is highly premature and is better left for the endgame. Ukraine might have to retake Crimea, or part of it, to create sufficient leverage at the negotiating table.
There are concerns about continued supply of weapons. This doesn't into account that Russian resources, other than the availability of unmotivated and poorly trained mobilised recruits, are still dwindling and finally reaching critical levels. And there are still a lot of stored Leopard tanks that can be patched up over the coming months. Plus there is the issue of the F16 fighter planes - plenty of those and they are in the process of replacement anyway.
I don't see a lot of reason for doom and gloom, only increasing political strain in the US over this war. Some Republicans rather waste billions and the lives of thousands of US soldiers on an illegal invasion and destabilising the Middle East than defending freedom and democracy in Europe.
Hate trump as I do, it's ironic that he was willing to criticize the Iraq war (even though he was for it before he was against it, being the craven opportunist that he is). I look for him to criticize this war too. It'll be interesting to see where DeSantis lands.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-02-14/ukraine-seeks-warplanes-nato-talks-ammunition-shortage (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-02-14/ukraine-seeks-warplanes-nato-talks-ammunition-shortage)
"...According to some estimates, Ukraine is firing 6,000 to 7,000 artillery shells each day, around a third of the daily amount that Russia is using. Stoltenberg warned Monday that Ukraine is using up ammunition much faster than its allies can supply it...."
I guess it will be quite a spring and summer and I just wonder if there's really political will beyond then or if they will have to negotiate something after that point no matter what?
Quote from: Que on February 17, 2023, 12:04:14 AMSome on the US side are signalling that Ukraine shouldn't expect to retrieve Crimea. I think this discussion is highly premature and is better left for the endgame. Ukraine might have to retake Crimea, or part of it, to create sufficient leverage at the negotiating table.
Russia annexed Crimea. Whether Europeans or Americans view the annexation as legitimate does not matter. Retaking Crimea would be seizing Russian sovereign territory. Something similar may apply in the recently annexed territories. Russian leaders have been clear that losing sovereign territory would cross a red line and it could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. Ukraine is not worth that. Different rules apply to nuclear armed great powers.
Quote from: Que on February 17, 2023, 12:04:14 AMSome Republicans rather waste billions and the lives of thousands of US soldiers on an illegal invasion and destabilising the Middle East than defending freedom and democracy in Europe.
Ukraine is not a treaty ally of the United States so the United States is not obliged to do anything. It has done far too much already and should cease support and push for a settlement.
US misadventures in the Greater Middle East can properly be viewed as specific policy actions in pursuit of the Carter Doctrine. Regional destabilization can establish the conditions that prevent the rise of a regional hegemon. While the US wisely diversified oil import sources since the 70s oil shocks, the impact the region has on global markets warranted US intervention to some extent. Given the current state of hydrocarbon extraction industries, the US should more rapidly remove itself from so much direct involvement in the region.
The Truman Doctrine no longer applies and was more ill-conceived than the Carter Doctrine, so established rationales to act do not apply. The Russo-Ukrainian War is not about "freedom and democracy", it is about regional control. If Europeans are so concerned about defending "freedom and democracy", then they should be responsible and do so. That Europeans are not doing so and cannot do so is absolutely shameful.
Quote from: Que on February 17, 2023, 12:04:14 AMI don't see a lot of reason for doom and gloom
This statement is detached from reality; this is not an abstract discussion, an online game of Risk. Hundreds of thousands of people have died. The very real situation on the ground is hell on earth for people in Ukraine.
Quote from: milk on February 17, 2023, 01:24:09 AMHate trump as I do, it's ironic that he was willing to criticize the Iraq war (even though he was for it before he was against it, being the craven opportunist that he is). I look for him to criticize this war too. It'll be interesting to see where DeSantis lands.
Both parties are war parties. All viable candidates other than Trump will continue a militaristic foreign policy.
Remember that Trump began arming Ukraine and withdrew from two nuclear arms treaties. His decisions and actions contributed to this war.
Quote from: milk on February 17, 2023, 01:24:09 AMI guess it will be quite a spring and summer and I just wonder if there's really political will beyond then or if they will have to negotiate something after that point no matter what?
This war will not end in total victory for Ukraine because it cannot end in total victory for Ukraine. There will be a negotiated settlement at some point this year, or next, or the one after. When that time comes, it will be something to observe people as they pivot from being staunch war cheerleaders to dedicated settlement aficionados.
Quote from: Todd on February 17, 2023, 05:13:11 AMThis war will not end in total victory for Ukraine because it cannot end in total victory for Ukraine. There will be a negotiated settlement at some point this year, or next, or the one after. When that time comes, it will be something to observe people as they pivot from being staunch war cheerleaders to dedicated settlement aficionados.
Laughably incorrect.
Quote from: Que on February 17, 2023, 12:04:14 AMI don't see a lot of reason for doom and gloom
No, just the need for constancy of resolve and support.
Quotededicated settlement aficionados
There are few sounds on GMG as amusing as Huggy Bear preemptively patting himself on the back.
Quote from: LKB on February 17, 2023, 06:12:59 AMLaughably incorrect.
I think it's not laughable to posit that there will be a negotiated settlement. It's one reasonable possibility. You think this will end in a total defeat of one side? I wonder if many people think so. I think there is either a stalemate and negotiation at some point or one of the two governments collapses leading to some kind of chaos. But the second scenario doesn't necessarily mean the war ends I guess. I asked this before, but what are the possible outcomes? Someone said that, historically, Russia has had bad first years in their wars and either went on to win or the government in power collapsed.
Quote from: LKB on February 17, 2023, 06:12:59 AMLaughably incorrect.
You still care despite prior protests to the contrary. Carry on.
Quote from: milk on February 17, 2023, 07:03:51 AMSomeone said that, historically, Russia has had bad first years in their wars and either went on to win or the government in power collapsed.
Collapse of the Russian government is a not-so-secret hope of some warmongers. It has happened before. I guess the hope is that it's more 1991 than 1917. Alas, hope is not a strategy.
Quote from: Todd on February 17, 2023, 05:13:11 AMRussia annexed Crimea. Whether Europeans or Americans view the annexation as legitimate does not matter. Retaking Crimea would be seizing Russian sovereign territory. Something similar may apply in the recently annexed territories. Russian leaders have been clear that losing sovereign territory would cross a red line and it could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. Ukraine is not worth that. Different rules apply to nuclear armed great powers.
Russia more recently "annexed" Donbas regions mainly so it could claim they are Russian sovereign territories => and thereby hint they would be defended with nukes if invaded. Let's not put the cart before the horse.
To look at it from the opposite point of view, Donbas, and Crimea come to that, aren't worth nuclear war to the powers in Russia, even Putin. In other words, the threat to use nukes is a bluff except for one caveat: Putin doesn't believe defending Donbas and Crimea are worth it
BUT he might believe that maintaining is personal power
IS worth it. (If ousted from power Putin wouldn't survive a day out of prison at best.)
Anyway, what is intolerable is that Putin is hoping nuke threat will give Russia impunity to do whatever it wants. If successful, other nations will try the same strategy.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 17, 2023, 11:08:33 AMIn other words, the threat to use nukes is a bluff except for one caveat: Putin doesn't believe defending Donbas and Crimea are worth it BUT he might believe that maintaining is personal power IS worth it. (If ousted from power Putin wouldn't survive a day out of prison at best.)
This is sort of all over the place. For instance, who has seriously discussed putting Putin in prison? That's an inane aside. You are still stuck in the great man theory of politics. While clearly Putin has personal motives, more than personal motives are involved. Wars always involve more than personal motives.
You do not know if the threat to use nuclear weapons is a bluff. You cannot know. You can believe. It is dangerous folly to formulate policy on the hopeful assumption that nuclear threats will not be carried out. Fortunately, from an American perspective, nuclear weapon use would be limited to Ukraine since attacking the US would result in the end of humanity, and everyone knows it.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 17, 2023, 11:08:33 AMAnyway, what is intolerable is that Putin is hoping nuke threat will give Russia impunity to do whatever it wants. If successful, other nations will try the same strategy.
The main purpose of maintaining nuclear weapon stockpiles is to act as a deterrent to other great powers. In practical terms, they also allow all nuclear powers some freedom of action and the ability to use grotesque threats against other powers. Russia does it. The US does it. Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, and Trump all threatened, either publicly or privately, to use nuclear weapons against various foes for various reasons. The US has publicly made it a point to not adopt a no first use policy. Nuclear blackmail is common and useful. Even Kim Jong-un knows that.
Look, I annexed Todd's house months ago. It's mine now. Laughably disappointed at how few of you are making purchase offers. I'm willing to negotiate on price.
Quote from: Todd on February 17, 2023, 05:13:11 AMThis statement is detached from reality; this is not an abstract discussion, an online game of Risk. Hundreds of thousands of people have died. The very real situation on the ground is hell on earth for people in Ukraine.
Could we please do away with this fiction that you give a shit about the suffering of the Ukrainians?
Once you've given away whole regions in the "settlement" you advocate that is when the "hell on earth" begins for any person who wasn't supporting the Russians. That's when the "othering" of non-Russians will be fully let loose.
Quote from: SimonNZ on February 17, 2023, 02:34:49 PMCould we please do away with this fiction that you give a shit about the suffering of the Ukrainians?
Once you've given away whole regions in the "settlement" you advocate that is when the "hell on earth" begins for any person who wasn't supporting the Russians. That's when the "othering" of non-Russians will be fully let loose.
As I generally don't read Todd's posts I hadn't seen the astonishing paragraph you quote.
It's astonishing because, as always, it comes with no acknowledgment of who has actually caused the situation. Honestly, Todd frequently comes across as if what's happened to Ukraine is some kind of natural disaster because of his relentless determination to not attribute blame to Russia. If he does attribute blame, it's to a myriad of countries other than the one that actually invaded.
Telling other people that they're detached from reality when he never deals with the reality of who is killing all those dead Ukrainians would be hilarious if it wasn't so tragic. Yes, Todd, hundreds of thousands of people have died. And you won't talk about the murderers.
Quote from: Madiel on February 17, 2023, 12:15:47 PMLook, I annexed Todd's house months ago. It's mine now. Laughably disappointed at how few of you are making purchase offers. I'm willing to negotiate on price.
Ah, but I don't have to make a purchase. With Todd's "instant squatters rights" view of ownership I just have to wait until you run to the shops, plonk myself down in Todd's favorite chair and its my house, not either of yours.
Quote from: SimonNZ on February 17, 2023, 02:56:35 PMAh, but I don't have to make a purchase. With Todd's "instant squatters rights" view of ownership I just have to wait until you run to the shops, plonk myself down in Todd's favorite chair and its my house, not either of yours.
What makes you think I'm there? I own it. I didn't say I LIVE in it. Ewww.
Quote from: Madiel on February 17, 2023, 03:12:50 PMWhat makes you think I'm there? I own it. I didn't say I LIVE in it. Ewww.
Just so long as none of the warmongers here suggest that Todd should fight for what's his.
Quote from: SimonNZ on February 17, 2023, 03:29:57 PMJust so long as none of the warmongers here suggest that Todd should fight for what's his.
Well quite. I've been offering "his" house for sale for several months now, and no-one has said a thing against it. Least of all Todd.
The very fact that Putin is threatening with nuclear weapons in order to take and keep whatever foreign territory he desires, only underlines the importance of stopping him right here and now. And from a global geopolitical perspective accepting forceable annexations under nuclear great is a very dangerous precedent indeed.
And Putin is bluffing: the entire Crimea is being fortified as we speak. He very well knows the Ukranians are coming. Soon.
Quote from: Todd on February 17, 2023, 12:15:29 PMThe main purpose of maintaining nuclear weapon stockpiles is to act as a deterrent to other great powers. In practical terms, they also allow all nuclear powers some freedom of action and the ability to use grotesque threats against other powers. Russia does it. The US does it. Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, and Trump all threatened, either publicly or privately, to use nuclear weapons against various foes for various reasons. The US has publicly made it a point to not adopt a no first use policy. Nuclear blackmail is common and useful. Even Kim Jong-un knows that.
So, with a whiff of whataboutism, you are justifying Putin's use of nuclear blackmail and use of nuclear blackmail(?)
In fairness the USA has only ever threatened use of nuclear weapons as retaliation for use by of nukes by another power (--you said as much yourself). This is significantly different from Putin's threat which is for first-use in case of (his perceived) threat to Russian sovereignty. Now for convenience of his threat, he as arbitrarily included Crimea and the Donbas his definition of Russian sovereign territory. The USA has never done anything like that.
Quote from: Todd on February 17, 2023, 12:15:29 PM... For instance, who has seriously discussed putting Putin in prison? That's an inane aside. You are still stuck in the great man theory of politics. While clearly Putin has personal motives, more than personal motives are involved. Wars always involve more than personal motives.
Putin is apparently under no imminent threat of being ousted. He isn't the only nostalgist for the Soviet era in Russia. Not to mention that potentially influential Putin opponents end up shot, poisoned, or defenestrated -- or if they're really lucky, in prison.
Yes, I believe in the "great man" theory of history. Obviously "great men", based on their
personalities as well as time, place, and position, have pivotally influenced the course of history. Unique individuals has made a difference. To argue against that implies that history would have created a simulacrum of the given individual who would have done exactly the same thing. There a few "inevitabilities" in history.
Quote from: Que on February 18, 2023, 12:43:40 AMThe very fact that Putin is threatening with nuclear weapons in order to take and keep whatever foreign territory he desires, only underlines the importance of stopping him right here and now
I agree. The question is, who and how can stop him right here, right now?
Quote from: Fëanor on February 18, 2023, 04:57:06 AMYes, I believe in the "great man" theory of history.
Which is not even a theory, it's a fact. Anyone who seriously believes that, say, if Alexander the Great, Caesar, Napoleon, Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler had not existed, someone else of their contemporaries would have done exactly the same things they did is delusional.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 05:09:46 AMWhich is not even a theory, it's a fact. Anyone who seriously believes that, say, if Alexander the Great, Caesar, Napoleon, Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler had not existed, someone else of their contemporaries would have done exactly the same things they did is delusional.
I'm not sure you're correctly steel-manning the criticisms of the Great Man Theory of history. I have to look it up later but this seems off to me.
Quote from: milk on February 18, 2023, 05:19:27 AMI'm not sure you're correctly steel-manning the criticisms of the Great Man Theory of history. I have to look it up later but this seems off to me.
Go straight to the Epilogue of
War and Peace, that's where
Tolstoy heavily criticizes the Great Man Theory of History. He might convince you. He ddidn't convince me.
Anyway, feel free to name the French contemporary of
Napoleon who could have done what he did.
Now that I think of it, one could as well dismiss the Great Man Theory of Music. Monteverdi, Bach, Mozart, Beethoven, Wagner, Schoenberg? Nah, they were just the product of their circumstances and had they not existed the circumstances would have produced their equivalent anyway. I say, humbug!
Quote from: Fëanor on February 18, 2023, 04:39:10 AMSo, with a whiff of whataboutism, you are justifying Putin's use of nuclear blackmail and use of nuclear blackmail(?)
No whataboutism, no justification. Just explaining how the world works. Nuclear blackmail and threats are morally wrong whoever engages in the behavior. The behavior will continue. Leaders of great powers behave like leaders of great powers; leaders of nuclear powers are prone to using nuclear blackmail and nuclear threats.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 18, 2023, 04:57:06 AMPutin is apparently under no imminent threat of being ousted. He isn't the only nostalgist for the Soviet era in Russia. Not to mention that potentially influential Putin opponents end up shot, poisoned, or defenestrated -- or if they're really lucky, in prison.
Yes. So?
Quote from: Fëanor on February 18, 2023, 04:57:06 AMYes, I believe in the "great man" theory of history.
Good to know.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 18, 2023, 04:57:06 AMTo argue against that implies that history would have created a simulacrum of the given individual who would have done exactly the same thing.
Incorrect.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 18, 2023, 04:57:06 AMThere a few "inevitabilities" in history.
There are no future inevitabilities. One can ponder historical inevitabilities all day long. It's a waste of time.
If it happened, then it was inevitable. That it might have happened differently or not at all pertains to contrafactual history.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 05:23:58 AMGo straight to the Epilogue of War and Peace, that's where Tolstoy heavily criticizes the Great Man Theory of History. He might convince you. He ddidn't convince me.
Anyway, feel free to name the French contemporary of Napoleon who could have done what he did.
Tolstoy was a long time ago. My question would be: what are strongest arguments against it? It could also just be that it's not enough or that there's a compromise or middle position on the matter amongst historians. I had a professor in college who had something like "three Ps." Period, Process and...I forget the last one. I'm pretty foggy on cold medicine tonight. I'm sure you have to take into consideration individuals as well conditions. Napoleon didn't exist in a vacuum.
Quote from: milk on February 18, 2023, 05:49:18 AMNapoleon didn't exist in a vacuum.
I don't believe you.
Quote from: milk on February 18, 2023, 05:49:18 AMI had a professor in college who had something like "three Ps." Period, Process and...I forget the last one.
Probably
Person. ;D
Quote from: milk on February 18, 2023, 05:49:18 AMNapoleon didn't exist in a vacuum.
Sure, it took a lot of historical circumstances and other people's actions for
Napoleon to get into a position of power. Once there, though, he stamped the history not only of France but of the whole world with his unique personality. Besides, the very fact that in those circumstances and following those actions it was he, and nobody else, who rose to power attests to his uniqueness.
That being said, I am far from being a fan of Napoleon and I think his actions were mostly deleterious --- but I can't deny he was precisely one of those Great Men of History whose very existence is being denied here.
The great man theory of history satisfies some people's desire for mythology, heroes, and villains.
Back to the current war: U.S. declares Russia committed 'crimes against humanity' in Ukraine (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-declares-russia-committed-crimes-against-humanity-ukraine-2023-02-18/)
Who knew?
I wonder if the Veep will confess publicly that the US committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in Raqqa or that she was personally complicit in a crime against humanity when seven children were partially liquified at an Afghan wedding.
jk
International law, such as it is, is selectively and unjustly applied.
Someone stated today in this very thread that common morality and basic decency do not apply to great powers, especially nuclear ones. Now the very same someone takes a great nuclear power to task for not conforming to common morality and basic decency. Am I the only one to see the incongruity?
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 06:17:51 AMSomeone stated today in this very thread that common morality and basic decency do not apply to great powers, especially nuclear ones. Now the very same someone takes a great nuclear power to task for not conforming to common morality and basic decency. Am I the only one to see the incongruity?
There is no incongruity. You simply misunderstand.
I have written it before, but I will repeat it here in hopes of clearing up your confusion: my views on foreign policy are amoral. I accept that all manner of unpleasantries occur on a daily basis in the world of international relations. It's the way of the world, always has been, and always will be. By way of contrast, every other poster on this board constantly moralizes.
Political leaders in the West constantly moralize, yet some of those leaders engage in grossly immoral actions. The hypocrisy and dishonesty entertain. There is a distinct possibility that some Western leaders do not know or understand that the West engages in (sometimes grotesquely) immoral behavior. That entertains even more. The West does not hold the moral high ground. Leaders really ought not to pretend that it does. Followers, too.
I mean, of course no great power cares a fig about morality and decency and all of them have committed, and will still commit, war crimes. What is strange, though, is singling out one such power as singularly bad in general and directly responsible in particular for the war in Ukraine, while presenting another one as just averagely bad and not directly responsible for the war in Ukraine. This double standard boggles the mind --- my mind, at least.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 06:35:34 AMThis double standard boggles the mind --- my mind, at least.
This also stems from your misunderstanding. The US established the conditions that led to Russian aggression. Russian and Ukrainian forces commit war crimes and crimes against humanity on a recurring basis. The US actively prolongs the conditions enabling this reality by providing aid to Ukraine. This war is not a good guy/bad guy war. It's a guy/guy or bad guy/bad guy war. Since every other poster on this board is obsessed with Russia's supposedly unique badness, they can dwell on that.
In recent years, the US has also supported other somewhat unsavory groups. The US sided with al-Qaeda in Syria. It will not ease sanctions on Syria even in the face of a catastrophic disaster. It props up Kagame. It backs the TPLF in the deadliest war in the world, and one that gets no press coverage because white folks ain't dying. It backs the Saudis in its proxy war in Yemen. And those are just some of the highlights. To be sure, Russia does bad things, too, it just has less reach. I am far more concerned about what the US does because it costs me money and Americans may end up dying needlessly.
Quote from: Todd on February 18, 2023, 06:56:09 AMI am far more concerned about what the US does because it costs me money
I thought you were concerned about the hellish life of Ukrainians or about the Afghani children. Silly me.
You are as big a hypocrite as the US government; you just have less reach.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 07:09:19 AMI thought you were concerned about the hellish life of Ukrainians or about the Afghani children. Silly me.
You are as big a hypocrite as the US government; you just have less reach.
Three points.
First, I have a generalized concern about the dead and dying in far-away lands. I also treat all non-Americans equally. The white people dying in the supposedly free and democratic Ukraine are no more important than the dead and dying in Afghanistan, Yemen, Ethiopia, Sudan, Congo, Myanmar, etc, etc, etc. I am much more concerned about events in Ohio. I point out the horrific, grossly immoral conditions endured by innocent people in Ukraine and elsewhere to illustrate the outcomes of policies enthusiastically supported and righteously defended by the moralizing majority on this board.
Second, you resorted to ad hominem as opposed to addressing any points. That's fine.
Third, you broke your promise to never respond to me.
Quote from: Todd on February 18, 2023, 07:19:52 AMyou resorted to ad hominem
I did and I'm really sorry I did. I just couldn't resist.
Quote from: Todd on February 18, 2023, 07:19:52 AMyou broke your promise to never respond to me.
Ditto.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 07:23:33 AMI did and I'm really sorry I did. I just couldn't resist.
You have impulse control issues.
Quote from: Todd on February 18, 2023, 07:24:35 AMYou have impulse control issues.
Yes, I know. I really do sometimes. Strangely enough, it's an online issue only. In real life, on the contrary, I'm always on delay to strike back. I mean, by the moment a mordant reply comes to my mind the event which occasioned it has been long since gone (don't know if time concordance is correct but you get the idea, I hope).
If there's any consolation to you,
@Todd, I do believe that no peace treaty can be signed unless Ukraine acquiesces to give up Crimea and Donbas for good. The next best alternative is a stalemate similar to the Korean peninsula one. The worst alternative... I don't even want to imagine it.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 07:51:59 AMIf there's any consolation to you, @Todd
I require no consolation.
Quote from: Todd on February 18, 2023, 07:54:28 AMI require no consolation.
Your sense of humor is slight, to say the least. And no, this is not an
ad hominem. I know plenty of people like that, some of whom are close relatives.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 07:56:40 AMYour sense of humor is slight, to say the least.
Incorrect.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 07:56:40 AMYour sense of humor is slight, to say the least. And no, this is not an ad hominem. I know plenty of people like that, some of whom are close relatives.
So how's the non-responding going?
I guess you're human... ;D
Quote from: Todd on February 18, 2023, 07:19:52 AMSecond, you resorted to ad hominem as opposed to addressing any points.
Physician: heal thyself.
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 07:51:59 AMI do believe that no peace treaty can be signed unless Ukraine acquiesces to give up Crimea and Donbas for good.
I very much disagree. Perhaps Putin could have walked away with those spoils of war in the early months of the invasion, I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians were seriously considering it. But not any more - after the relentess ferocity of the Russian assault, the war crimes committed and other hardships endured by the Ukrainian civilian population.
To ensure a more enduring peace in Europe, Putin must come out of this empty handed.... The days of a face saving option are over. That said, Crimea might be subject to some compromise, maybe...
Quote from: Florestan on February 18, 2023, 07:51:59 AMIf there's any consolation to you, @Todd, I do believe that no peace treaty can be signed unless Ukraine acquiesces to give up Crimea and Donbas for good. The next best alternative is a stalemate similar to the Korean peninsula one. The worst alternative... I don't even want to imagine it.
I suspect that Putin would quietly see a treaty based on Ukraine giving up Donbas and Crimea as a
defeat. He main goal was and is to neutralize Ukraine, keeping it out of the EU and NATO and under Russia's thumb. I say he would agree to such a treaty only if he were threatened by catastrophic military setbacks in Ukraine or some unforeseeable twist in his domestic situation.
Best hope for the peaceniks is to threaten imminent defeat in Donbas and southern Ukraine; this would just might bring Putin scrambling to peace negotiations. I agree with Rishi Sunak that NATO ought to pull out all the stops short of invading actual, legitimate Russian territory.
Quote from: Que on February 19, 2023, 03:52:08 AMTo ensure a more enduring peace in Europe, Putin must come out of this empty handed.... The days of a face saving option are over. That said, Crimea might be subject to some compromise, maybe...
Ukraine is not winning the war. That is why Ukrainian leaders are desperate for more hardware including prior gen fighters. Ukraine is not in a position of strength. Territory, treaty status, war crimes and more are all up for negotiation.
Quote from: Fëanor on February 19, 2023, 03:59:58 AMBest hope for the peaceniks is to threaten imminent defeat in Donbas and southern Ukraine; this would just might bring Putin scrambling to peace negotiations.
What does "this would just might" mean?
Quote from: Fëanor on February 19, 2023, 03:59:58 AMI agree with Rishi Sunak that NATO ought to pull out all the stops short of invading actual, legitimate Russian territory.
Sunak doesn't call the shots.
One big takeaway from this war is that it is quite easy for netizens to engage in keyboard kombat and thoughtlessly wish away civilian lives. It's shamefully immoral.
Quote from: Todd on February 19, 2023, 04:59:38 AMUkraine is not winning the war. That is why Ukrainian leaders are desperate for more hardware including prior gen fighters. Ukraine is not in a position of strength.
Well,
dah. ::)
Quote from: Todd on February 19, 2023, 04:59:38 AMOne big takeaway from this war is that it is quite easy for netizens to engage in keyboard kombat and thoughtlessly wish away civilian lives. It's shamefully immoral.
I'm accusing you of cynical disingenuousness. You are indifferent about civilian lives; what you want is the reestablishment of Russian as a superpower and of the Soviet sphere of influence.
Quote from: Todd on February 19, 2023, 05:17:38 AMYou're accusing me? What does that mean?
Anyway, you are wrong on all counts. The fact that you use the word "Soviet" betrays your age and mindset.
And it is you and the other warmongers on this forum who enthusiastically embrace and defend policies that have led to the deaths of more than 40,000 civilians. You support immoral policies. You really ought to be ashamed of yourself.
Fëanor's assessment is dead on, and his usage of " Soviet " is perfectly appropriate. You know this, but apparently for the sake of consistency continue in your futile attempts to shift blame onto the West for Putin's aggression.
It is you who should be ashamed, and profoundly so.
With so much bad news about the war, it's always refreshing to read some good news:
Ukraine aid support softens in the US: AP-NORC Poll (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-politics-poland-33095abf76875b60ebab3ddf4eede188)
Quote from: Todd on February 19, 2023, 05:17:38 AMYou're accusing me? What does that mean?
Anyway, you are wrong on all counts. The fact that you use the word "Soviet" betrays your age and mindset.
And it is you and the other warmongers on this forum who enthusiastically embrace and defend policies that have led to the deaths of more than 40,000 civilians. You support immoral policies. You really ought to be ashamed of yourself.
At this point, moderators... why the hell are YOU putting up with this?
China considering providing "lethal support" to aid Russian invasion of Ukraine, Blinken says (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/antony-blinken-china-russia-lethal-support-ukraine-face-the-nation/)
Quote from: By Robyn Dixon and Catherine Belton"Among the elite, though they understand it was a mistake, they still fear to do anything themselves," said the only Russian diplomat to publicly quit office over the war, Boris Bondarev, formerly based at Russia's U.N. mission in Geneva. "Because they have gotten used to Putin deciding everything."
QuoteQuoteBut beneath, Putin is creating a militarized, nationalistic society, fed on propaganda and obsessed with an "existential" forever war against the United States and NATO. So far, no one in officialdom has had the nerve to object — not publicly, at least.
My understanding is that the 1940s fight against the Nazis is already a big part of Russian national consciousness. Which is why Putin is claiming to be fighting Nazis now.